COMMODITY UPDATE

Crop Progress Update: South Continues To Surge, Slowdown Hits Iowa

Tue, 07 May 2024 11:59:05 GMT

This week’s USDA Crop Progress report shows corn planting overall currently three percentage points (36% planted) behind the five year average, while soybean planting is four points ahead (25%) of historic pace. Emerged corn currently sits at 12% overall, three points ahead of the five year average. Soybean emergence sits at five percentage points (9%) ahead of pace.

Ohio and Pennsylvania corn farmers made huge planting gains over the past week, with Buckeye State farmers tacking on 20 percentage points and Quaker State farmers adding 21. Indiana farmers also added 12 percentage points of progress over the last seven days.

In soybeans, Mississippi farmers continue to set the pace this season, adding 15 percentage points in the past week to continue front-running at 67% planted. Arkansas sits just off the leader at 65%. Indiana soybean farmers also had themselves a nice week, increasing from 8% planted to 20% planted.

Meanwhile, planting conditions have not been particularly kind to our friends in North Dakota. The state that gave NFL fans Carson Wentz and Trey Lance at the quarterback position currently sits at 11% planted for corn and just 3% in soybeans. Hopefully things warm up and dry up soon in the Roughrider State.

Iowa also had a slow week last week, tacking on just five percentage points in soybean planting progress (30% planted) and eight points in corn (47%).

North Central Ohio Farmer Update

Matt Spillman farms right around 2,500 acres of sandy light to heavy clay soils with his two brothers and his mom and uncle just a handful of miles south of The Pro Football Hall of Fame in nearby Canton, Ohio.

Coming off a record season for corn yields, Spillman Farms came into spring really wet before things started drying up over the last two weeks, he says. Local rivers were at flood stage, prompting local dam authorities to “let the water loose and things dried out fairly well here.”

That dry up enabled the brothers to knock out about 75% of their corn and bean plantings by the first week of May. Last year, he says they had “hardly planted much” before May 9.

“I doubt we’ll be turning any wheels in the field here this week, though,” Spillman says. “The way things are looking, we just had anywhere from an inch to an inch and a half in the past day and a half – which we were needing a shot of rain. It’s going to help the crops.”

Spillman says that in his area, about 70% of the time early planting dates similar to this year have paid off with “some of our best crops.”

He is already seeing corn and beans emerging, signaling that everything is looking pretty good thus far.

“We had really nice heat over the last seven, eight days, and that just pushed things along,” he adds.

Matt’s role on the farm – each brother has an area of expertise they champion in the operation – is that of head applicator. Although at Spillman Farms they do their own fertilizer spreading and spray applications during the season, he could foresee a potential for things getting backed up if you’re relying on the local co-op or a custom applicator this summer.

“Being out in the fields the first two weeks of April to accomplish spring burndowns, that kind of thing can definitely put them behind on what they can cover ground-wise,” he adds.

#plant24 Updates from X (via AgDay TV’s Tyne Morgan)

Lack of planting in Iowa:

100% chance of rain tonight calling for an inch. We are full saturation. Half an inch fills ponds and pushes planting back another week. We meteorologist to get back to missing here for a bit. #plant24
— Corey Hillebo (@corn_porkNbeans) May 6, 2024

After a 10-day rain delay, planting in Illinois:

After a 10 day rain delay, #plant24 resumes for a bit. pic.twitter.com/Y2lrPDFtN1
— Cory (@CoryRitter) May 4, 2024

More planting in Illinois:

#plant24 rolls on!! pic.twitter.com/JNdKILRvSY
— Ethan Koehler (@ethankoehler14) May 6, 2024

Planting started in North Dakota:

#plant24 🌽 begins pic.twitter.com/aYy8c7Ky1a
— Adam Spelhaug (@AdamSpelhaug) May 4, 2024

MARKET WATCH: Grains Slump, Hogs for the Win on Wednesday

Wed, 18 May 2022 21:38:41 GMT

IN-DEPTH MARKET ANALYSIS: Wednesday was a risk-off day in the agricultural commodity markets. Everything was in the red except hogs with spillover from the selloff in the equity sector after Fed Chair Jerome Powell made hawkish comments about the economy and interest rates. However, the grain markets were very overbought, especially in wheat after the run up to new highs. Michelle Rook talked to Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing to get the full analysis.

Germany Says Ag-Based Biofuels Not Only Way to Reduce Emissions

Wed, 04 May 2022 16:33:01 GMT

The European Union has agreed on a 7% cap for food-based biofuels. Germany is seeking to reduce that figure further – most recently to 4.4% – and now is looking to take it even lower, with the agriculture ministry saying it is working on new legislation to achieve this goal.

Last Friday, German paper Augsburger Allgemeine Zeitung (AAZ) reported Germany’s Environment Minister Steffi Lemke was working with the agriculture ministry on such a limit as “agricultural land is needed for food, as the war in Ukraine dramatically shows us.”

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“Corn, rapeseed or soy are not the only way [to cut CO2 emissions]. Fuel makers can use synthetic and waste-based biofuels, electricity and green hydrogen,” a ministry spokesperson said, commenting on a the AAZ report that Germany would further cap production of agricultural fuels. The spokesperson said Lemke’s plans to further limit use of food products in biofuels was a “logical next step” but declined to give more details on the scope and timeline of the proposed changes.

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30 Day Cattle Outlook (4/30)

Wed, 04 May 2022 16:32:29 GMT

Memorial Day weekend is typically the biggest beef consumption weekend of the year, with Independence Day likely being the second most active. Thus, history strongly suggests retailers will be buying beef quite strongly over the next six weeks. The problem for producers and the packing industry remains the greatly elevated cost of beef in grocery stores, which is rather clearly stifling consumer demand. Still, spring grilling demand should provide considerable support for prices, but cattle prices traditionally move lower through spring as weekly cattle slaughter climbs to summer highs.

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Although this week’s futures losses seem to have developed substantial downward momentum, the 10-year average implying an approximate $11.00 cash-market drop from the spring high ($143.22) to early-summer lows (around $132.00) suggests June futures at today’s settlement have largely incorporated the seasonal decline. Thus, June futures may not have a great deal of downside risk from this point.

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Weather Extremes Hampering Canadian Planting Progress

Wed, 04 May 2022 16:31:44 GMT

Farmers in Canada are struggling to plant crops in fields that are either too wet or too dry in the Prairie provinces. One-quarter of the cropland in Alberta, or 44 million acres, is in a significant drought, including major growing areas for spring wheat, barley and durum, according to Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada. In Manitoba, two-thirds of growing regions, another 21 million acres, suffer from excess moisture after back-to-back storms. There has been flooding in Manitoba and more rain is forecast over the weekend.

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World Weather Inc. predicts a strong ridge of high pressure for the latter part of next week into the following weekend resulting in temperatures well above average and limited rainfall across the Canadian Prairies. Immediately following the mini-heatwave, World Weather forecasts a good chance for rain in the southwestern Prairies to help improve growing conditions.

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Major Brazilian Soybean Grower to Cut Fertilizer Use

Wed, 04 May 2022 16:31:28 GMT

One of Brazil’s largest farmers plans to reduce fertilizer use by a quarter next season, relying on more precise applications and soil testing to maintain crop yields, Bloomberg reported. SLC Agricola SA, which cultivates an area bigger than Delaware with soybeans, corn and cotton, will probably use between 20% and 25% less fertilizer in 2022-23 without jeopardizing yields, according to company officials. Many farmers are considering cutting fertilizer usage due to higher prices and shortages. According to fertilizer industry sources, only about 15% of Brazil’s agriculture areas may sustain itself without fertilizers.

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Higher Retail Meat Prices Will Test Consumer Demand

Wed, 04 May 2022 16:30:52 GMT

U.S. consumer demand for retail meat remains exceptionally strong despite higher prices stemming from increased production costs and supply-chain limitations. However, once the full effects of producer price inflation finally hit retail meat cases, consumer demand for meat will be tested again, according to a new report from CoBank’s Knowledge Exchange. The report expects retail meat prices will remain elevated throughout 2022. With combined cutout values of beef, pork and chicken climbing 22% year-over-year for the first quarter of 2022, consumers will see higher prices in the meat case. Higher overall inflation might significantly change consumers’ willingness to pay for red meat. If that turns out to be the case, the U.S. broiler industry may yet again be well-positioned for modest growth and strong margins.

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For retailers in 2022, they might feature more value items like ground beef, hot dogs and sausage items. As grilling season enters full swing, retail meat departments’ focus will likely shift to profit margins over volume sales this year, increasing creativity in the meat case. Rather than vying for consumer dollars through aggressive price points, “no price” features will be an attractive solution for retailers.

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Canadian Farmers Plan to Plant More Wheat, Less Canola

Tue, 03 May 2022 17:01:01 GMT

Canadian farmers are expected to plant 25.0 million acres of wheat in 2022, up 1.6 million acres from last year and 800,000 acres more than traders expected, according to Statistics Canada. Mike Jubinville of MarketsFarm says, “The gain in wheat acres is more than I anticipated... likely attributable to strong prices and high worldwide demand.”

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Canadian canola acres are expected to total 20.9 million acres, down 1.6 million acres from last year and 1.2 million acres less than traders’ average estimate. Jubinville says, “This is a bit shocking to me. With demand for canola still very strong, and old-crop carryout likely to be drawn down to dust, without an exceptional yield in 2022, Canadian canola supply will remain quite constrained for the coming 2022-23 marketing year.”

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