Cost of Production

Canadian Farmers Look For A Fresh Start After The Driest Year In Decades

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:47:21 GMT

The way Tim Webster tells it, his 2025 cropping season was nearly a disaster. Summer delivered the lowest July–August rainfall his area had seen in 50 years. That lack and abnormally high temperatures pushed corn and soybeans to their limits.

“We had just enough moisture to get to the finish line,” recalls Webster, a sixth-generation farmer based just west of Lindsay, Ontario, Canada. The end result: corn and soybean yields came in at about half of normal.

Webster and fellow farmer Steve Crothers, who farms on the north shore of Lake Ontario about 50 miles east of Toronto, recently sat down with Illinois-based Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie to talk about how they’re adjusting cropping plans for 2026 after last year’s drought.

Drought Reshapes Farmer Expectations

For Webster, last season was a stark reminder of how quickly yield potential can evaporate. Ultimately, Webster’s bottom line took a hit.

“We’re hoping that doesn’t repeat again,” he told Ferrie.

Crothers’ experience, though slightly better, was still defined by drought. Growing corn, soybeans, wheat and edible beans along Lake Ontario, he says it was the driest of his 40-plus years in farming.

“We had a couple half-inch rains, so we kind of ended up with three-quarters of our long-term average yield. So, we fared a little bit better,” Crothers says.

Still, the season left him and Webster concerned about their cropping plans and finances for this year.

Crop Insurance As A Lifeline

Ferrie drew a comparison between Canadian and American safety nets as he listened to Crothers and Webster describe their experiences. In the U.S., Ferrie notes farmers often lean on multiple levels of crop insurance to blunt losses in a bad production year. He asked whether similar options exist for Canadian farmers.

Webster replied that growers there do have a provincial crop insurance program, but participation and coverage levels vary.
“I think we all felt after last year, maybe we should have been insured a little higher. But we were very happy to have what we had to help pay the bills, that’s for sure,” Webster notes.

Crothers says specialty crops, including edible white beans and adzuki beans, come under similar insurance frameworks as corn and soybeans, though they have higher premiums because of their higher value.

Most of the white beans grown in his part of Ontario head to the United Kingdom, while the adzuki beans (also called mung beans) are shipped to Japan, Crothers notes. Those export markets add another layer of risk to already weather-sensitive crops, making insurance an important backstop when weather or markets turn against them.

Fertilizer Sticker Shock Hits Canadian Growers

If drought defined 2025, fertilizer prices loom large over this season for Canadian farmers, much like they do for U.S. farmers.

“For 2026 our biggest thing is hope — hope for typical average rainfalls after last year’s drought,” Crothers says. “And then, of course, the economic challenges with the fertilizer situation are obviously troubling to everybody.”

He tells Ferrie most fertilizer in his part of Ontario is not prepaid “The fellows using 28% are usually prepaid, because it’s been hard to get the last few years. But generally, not near as much fertilizer is prepaid as what, in a perfect world, would have been.” Crothers reports.

That leaves many Canadian farmers more exposed to potential sticker shock as they head into spring planting.

Webster says he pre-bought some of his nitrogen (N) in February and is now leaning hard into a strategy of splitting applications and dialing back on more expensive, slow-release N options where he can.

This year, for his wheat topdress program, fertility costs didn’t pencil out, forcing a change in his plans.

“It’s $32 more [per acre] to go with the time-release product versus straight urea,” Webster notes. “So, I think on our wheat this year we’re going to do a lot of split applications.”

With diesel, fertilizer and other costs trending higher, he says, “anything you can do to save small increments adds up … for the whole operation.”

Cropping Plans: Adjust Or Stay The Course?

Both farmers describe their region as an area where crop rotations remain fairly consistent: corn, soybeans and wheat typically share the mix. Asked whether high input prices and drought fears would drive large acreage shifts this season, Webster says his own operation plans to stay the course with its rotation, helped by a marketing strategy that spreads grain sales out over time to manage risk and meet mortgage payments.

Still, he’s aware some of his neighbors are recalibrating their cropping plans.

“I know some guys are going to go less corn, more beans — just less dollars to put it in,” Webster notes. “Maybe the profits aren’t as high, but there’s less risk involved.”

Ferrie notes that, similar to Ontario, many U.S. growers also appear to be largely holding to their established crop plans, as their major fertilizer and seed commitments were already made before input costs soared.

In a region still feeling the effects of the driest season in decades, both Webster and Crothers are essentially betting on a return to something closer to normal this season — average rains, manageable input costs and no repeat of last year’s extremes.

“If we get good yields, then we can deal with those [costs],” Crothers says. “But another weather year like last year would definitely be a struggle for a lot of people.”

Crothers and Webster spoke with Ferrie during a meeting hosted by the Durham Soil and Crop Association, a grassroots group that works under Ontario’s agricultural umbrella to bring new ideas, funding opportunities and conservation programs to farmers in the region.

You can catch the entire conversation between Ferrie, Crothers and Webster on this week’s Boots In The Field podcast, available below.

The 20-Bushel Wake-Up Call One Farmer Is Using To Boost Soybean Yields

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:42:15 GMT

For years, Stephen Butz watched his corn yields climb while his soybeans stalled. The numbers didn’t lie: corn was steadily improving, while soybeans were “average at best,” he recalls, running hot and cold from year to year with no clear pattern.

“Our soybeans were just plateauing,” says Butz, who farms near Kankakee, Ill.

The turning point for Butz came several years ago on a 120-acre field split between two soybean varieties — 80 acres on the north side and 40 acres on the south. Everything matched: planting date, field conditions, management. The only difference was the variety planted.

At harvest, the 40-acre section of the field was 18 to 19 bushels per acre better.

A talk with Butz’s seedsman revealed the answer: the higher-yielding soybeans carried the Peking source of resistance to soybean cyst nematode (SCN). That single difference explained nearly 20-bushels-per-acre the farm had been losing to SCN for years.

“Honestly, it was just one of those deals where our seed guy had said, ‘Hey, this is a good number.’ So we’d planted the variety kind of naively,” Butz says. “But lo and behold, it was a huge benefit for us and showed us a problem we had on this farm and other farms, too.”

With the initial finding of SCN, Butz started soil testing to identify how significant the problem was across his farm. Surprisingly, soil tests revealed SCN populations ranging from the low hundreds to as high as 5,000 per sample.

“We’ve got a good amount of farms in that 3,000 to 5,000 count, which is an extremely high amount that I need to address,” says Butz, who samples fields ahead of planting.

Spring 2026: Going 100% Peking

After splitting acres for several years between non-GMO and Enlist soybeans, Butz made a decisive shift to the latter for 2026 as the non-GMO soybeans do not carry resistance to SCN.

“This spring, we are going with 100% Peking,” he says

For Butz, the move is less about chasing bonus bushels of soybeans and more about stopping the hidden losses SCN has been causing. He’s certain he’s left a lot of yield potential on the table in previous seasons.

“We’re not so much adding bushels (with the Peking) as we expect to relieve the stress that’s been taking bushels away,” he says.

Going all-Peking this season is only part of his management plan. The other piece is rotating more between corn and soybeans and, over time, between different SCN technologies, including Peking and PI 88788.

Butz’s cropping pattern follows a rough structure of thirds in any given year: about a third of his total acres in corn or soybeans and another third in continuous corn. That same structure drives his soil sampling schedule and will, in the future, he says, guide how he rotates SCN resistance traits across the landscape.

He also hopes to bring new technology into the mix, including the new SCN solution on the way from BASF Agricultural Solutions, called Nemasphere. It is the first-ever biotech trait designed specifically to address SCN.

Unlike traditional native resistance found in PI 88788 and Peking, Nemasphere is based on a transgenic trait — a Cry14 protein engineered directly into the soybean — explains Hugo Borsari, BASF vice president of business management for seeds in North America.

Beyond Yield: Logistics And Longevity

For Butz, the case for more soybeans, and especially better-protected soybeans, isn’t just agronomic. It’s logistical and financial.
Soybeans help spread out workload during planting and harvest, he explains, easing the strain of managing continuous corn acres. They also inject rotation into fields that might otherwise lean too heavily to continuous corn.

“Years of continuous corn in some spots is fine, but rotation is obviously better,” he said during a recent panel discussion hosted by BASF.

Like he found out by accident, Butz says he believes many other growers might be losing significant yield to SCN without realizing it.

“You might live in an area that you raise 75-bushel beans all the time, or 80-bushel beans, and that’s amazing. But what if the potential is 90 or 100 bushels?“ Butz asks. “There’s plenty of people out there that might be losing 10, 15 bushels off the top, and that adds up fast. You’re freaking losing $100 an acre pretty quick that would help a lot with your bottom line.”

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:51 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

The New Ag Economy: Why This Downturn is a Structural Shift, Not Just a Cycle

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 21:22:16 GMT

What You Need to Know:

Structural Evolution: This downturn is a permanent market shift, not just a temporary cycle.
Friend-Shoring: Trade is moving toward geopolitical allies to ensure supply chain resilience.
Aggressive Cost-Cutting: Farmers are doubling generic input use and delaying machinery purchases to protect margins.
Financial Resilience: Better management and working capital make today far more stable than the 1980s.
Premium Protein Demand: GLP-1 medications are driving consumers toward smaller, higher-quality meat portions

As the industry enters the third year of this downturn, farmers and agribusinesses are questioning if a recovery is on the two-year horizon. While cyclical behavior is normal, two economists suggest the structural evolution within crop protection, machinery, technology, livestock and other individual sectors is creating a different kind of staying power for those who survive the recovery.

The Evolution of the Cycle

When characterizing the current economic cycle in agriculture, historical patterns provide a necessary baseline, yet the present landscape is defined by unique pressures. Typical agricultural cycles consist of roughly six years of expansion followed by four years of decline. Currently, the market is navigating a “corrective period,” returning to long-run averages.

The drivers of growth are typically demand shocks — export surges, fuel demand or policy shifts such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, Wes Davis, ag economist at Meridian Ag Advisors, notes the current environment is an intersection of traditional contraction and sector-specific evolution.

“What I think we’re experiencing right now is that typical cycle behavior where we see growth in some business firms, and then some contraction and pullback to adjust to the cycle going back to more of the long-run average,” Davis explains. “I think we’re also seeing evolution of individual sectors within the market where there’s adjustments happening because of the industry itself.”

In other words, this isn’t just a cycle — it’s also a structural shift.

Change Fatigue and Modern Volatility

Farmers aren’t strangers to volatility, but global trade disruptions, policy shifts and rising competition, especially from Brazil, are layering uncertainty onto already volatile markets.
Farmers are grappling with “change fatigue,” a byproduct of the high velocity of information and extreme price swings that dwarf the relative stability of the early 2000s.

“When I go talk to any industry group right now, the phrase that I hear is ‘change fatigue’, and I feel that. Every couple minutes, something shifts,” says Trey Malone, Purdue University ag econ professor. “But to be clear, it’s not that the farm economy isn’t used to volatility, it’s just the uncertainty and the volatility now is, like, ‘hold my beer relative’ to the old volatility.”

Malone attributes this to layers of uncertainty created by global trade and policy. The rise of Brazilian production, coinciding with the disruption of U.S.-China trade relations, has created a permanent state of flux. This sentiment is reflected in the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer, which shares a higher correlation with the Small Business Index (.5) than with actual commodity prices. This suggests farmers view themselves primarily as small business owners facing broad economic pressures rather than just price-takers.

“We don’t see very strong correlations even with lagged soybean prices and corn prices,” Malone notes. “The world is more complicated than just looking at what happened in the market yesterday and gauging how farmers feel.”

Global Competitiveness and the Trade Reallocation

A primary concern for U.S. producers is their position as low-cost providers. While the U.S. maintains an infrastructure advantage that lowers the cost of getting products to export ports, Brazil continues to close the gap.

“It’s a fair question farmers ask a lot: Are we actually the ones who are the low-cost producers, and do we still have a place in the global market if Brazil continues to lower the cost of production and transport their grain to export terminals?” Davis asks.

However, Davis points out that global trade hasn’t shut off; it has reallocated. Only three global regions — North America, Latin America and parts of Southeastern Europe/Central Asia — are net exporters. The rest of the world remains net importers.

“While our trade has kind of shifted around ... that shift has really reallocated stuff in different places. Those calories and products end up going somewhere. It’s just a question of where,” he says.

The Shift to “Friend-Shoring” and Resilient Supply Chains

The industry is moving from “just-in-time” (hyper-lean) procurement to “just-in-case” (inventory-heavy) strategies, a lesson reinforced by the pandemic. This shift is accompanied by “friend-shoring,” where the U.S. prioritizes trade with geopolitical allies.

“We’ve gone from offshoring to onshoring to nearshoring to friendshoring,” Malone explains. “We’ve got a paper that’ll be coming out ... where we document friend-shoring in ag and food supply chains. Over the last 10 years, there’s been a shift where we mostly in the U.S. trade with other people who vote like us in the WTO. That’s kind of one way to measure friends.”

This resilience is also visible in crop protection. In 2019, 80% of active ingredients were sourced from China. Today, that is closer to 60%, with manufacturing shifting to India and domestic sites. Davis calls these “geopolitically resilient” supply chains.

The Rise of Generics and Decision Paralysis

The economic downturn is fundamentally changing the business model for input providers. Farmers are aggressively cutting costs, leading to a massive surge in generic usage.

“The latest survey I saw shows about 60% of farmers use generics today. That was about 30% to 40% just 5 years ago,” Davis says. This forces companies to pivot from differentiation to operational volume.

In the machinery sector, high costs and economic uncertainty have led to “decision paralysis.” Farmers are extending the life of their equipment, treating machinery replacement as the most controllable variable in managing annual ROI. Davis notes the U.S. ag equipment cycle is currently 15 to 20 percentage points lower than typical low points, driven by this hesitation. Furthermore, there is significant skepticism toward subscription-based technology models.

“Farmers don’t terribly love this idea, and I think the other interesting thought here is I’m not sure that retailers like selling them either,” Malone adds.

AI: The “Undergraduate Intern”

While artificial intelligence (AI) is a major talking point, its current role in agriculture is more supportive than transformative. Malone views AI as a “highly capable undergraduate intern” — useful for processing information but incapable of replacing the trust and risk management provided by human advisors.

“I don’t think you need to be replacing your agronomist. I think your mediocre agronomist just got OK,” Malone says, noting while LLMs can pass CCA exams, they cannot manage the risk of a wrong decision. “The risk management value proposition of an in-person Claude, or whoever, is probably going to win out because there’s still a risk.”

Currently, the adoption gap is wide: While 75% of agribusiness managers see potential in AI, only 4% have implemented it, according to a Purdue University survey in 2025.

Livestock and the GLP-1 Impact

The livestock sector is facing a unique demand shift driven by weight-loss medications (GLP-1s). This is leading to “premiumization.” As consumers eat smaller portions, they are opting for higher-quality cuts.

“The explosion in demand for protein is just shocking,” Malone says. “What GLP-1s do to that calorie count is they are all shifting toward premium cuts. You don’t care how much it costs because you’re only going to have seven bites of it. But you’re going to have a steak. That premiumization is going to really, really take off in the next 10 years.”

Conversely, the hype surrounding “fake meat” has largely faded, proving to be more of an investor-led phenomenon than a market-driven one.

Financial Stability: Not the 1980s

Despite the downturn, the financial health of the American farmer remains more stable than during the crisis of the 1980s. Currently, 10% to 12% of farmers are in a “tight” financial position , compared to 20% to 30% in the 80s.

“We do have a completely different, more professional ag workforce than we did back then,” Malone says. “The farm policy we have right now does not necessarily match what we need for the future, but all of these things make me think we’re in a much more stable position.”

Farmers have built-in “shock absorbers,” Davis adds, including off-farm income and working capital built up during the expansion years. However, in his research Davis has seen how alternative financing is becoming a major tool for the 50% of farmers who use it — either to manage stress or, for larger operations, to leverage relationships with retailers.

Strategic Reassessment: Winning at the Bottom

The experts agree the “bottom of the cycle” is the time for professionalization and upskilling. Surviving — and thriving — will require sharper management. It is an opportunity to reassess farm transitions and management disciplines, such as financial management, accounting and planning, which become critical in tight margins.

“Farmers are going to have to get smarter and get more creative with how they manage,” Malone says. “This is a good opportunity to take a step back and think about what the strategy needs to be moving forward.”

Davis emphasizes relationships are solidified during these periods: “Farmers are going to remember the folks who were around when they were in the bottom of the cycle, and who were there to support them. The best farmers will continue to get better ... I get excited about what we can look like as we come out of this cycle.”

So Is This Ag Cycle Different?

These experts say yes as every cycle presents its own unique reshaping of future opportunities.

To download the full report on why this ag cycle is different and what it means for your operation, click here .

The Iran War Is Sending Fertilizer Prices Soaring at the Worst Time for Farmers

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:43:16 GMT

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging the Trump administration to take immediate action to stabilize fertilizer supply chains as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send shockwaves through global input markets just as U.S. farmers begin spring planting. But with farmers already dealing with high fertilizer prices, even before the conflict in Iran, farmers are searching for a longer-term solution. Fertilizer market analysts warn while there are several options longer-term, there is no single fix for high fertilizer prices, only a mix of short-term policy responses and long-term investments that could gradually stabilize supply.

But today, the sticker shock is hitting farmers hard, especially for those who waited to book fertilizer for spring. Fertilizer prices have shot up in just a week. Typically, retailers may receive updated pricing once or twice a month. But with the ongoing uncertainty in Iran and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz is having on fertilizer shipments, some retailers say they are getting several pricing updates a day.

The price shock is real for farmers. One local Missouri retailer told AgWeb that in just a two-week period:

Urea is up $140 per ton
NH3 has risen $100 per ton
UAN is also up $100 per ton

American Farm Bureau Calls for Intervention

In a March 9 letter to the White House , AFBF warned fertilizer and fuel prices have surged following disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and shipping corridors. The organization says the spike in costs comes as farmers are already dealing with what it describes as a “generational decline in farm income” driven by falling crop prices and persistent inflation.

AFBF notes farmers entered 2026 on somewhat stronger footing after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and $12 billion in emergency economic assistance. However, the group warns rapidly rising input costs could quickly erase those gains, and now U.S. producers are bracing for a system shock resulting from the disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East Tensions Highlight Fertilizer Market Risks

New analysis from AFBF’s Market Intel team underscores why fertilizer markets are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical instability involving Iran and neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf. Nitrogen fertilizer supply chains are closely tied to the region, which accounts for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports. Major exporters include Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

AFBF says the Strait of Hormuz is central to energy and fertilizer trade. Oil flowing through the Strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Because energy is a major input to fertilizer production and transportation, disruptions or heightened risk in the region can amplify volatility across agricultural input markets.

(American Farm Bureau Federation )

Large volumes of fertilizer inputs, including urea, ammonia, phosphates and sulfur, move through the Strait of Hormuz each year, creating a major choke point for agricultural supply chains. AFBF says energy markets are also closely linked to fertilizer production. Their estimates point to roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moving through the Strait, about 20% of global petroleum consumption. Because energy is a major input in fertilizer manufacturing and transportation, disruptions in the region can quickly amplify price volatility.

AFBF economists say Iran holds some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, and natural gas is the key feedstock used to produce ammonia, the foundational input for most nitrogen fertilizers. Urea, which contains about 46% nitrogen, is the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer globally and plays a central role in crop production systems.

(American Farm Bureau Federation )

The timing of the disruption is especially concerning because U.S. farmers are currently making fertilizer purchases and applying nutrients ahead of planting. Analysts on U.S. Farm Report last weekend warned higher input costs could shift up to 1 million 1.5 million acres from corn to soybeans this spring . AFBF analysts also say delayed shipments or higher prices could lead some farmers to adjust cropping plans.

Why U.S. Farmers Feel Global Price Swings

Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets.
The U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand. According to AFBF, the U.S. imports roughly:

97% of its potassium
18% of its nitrogen
13% of its phosphate

That global exposure means disruptions anywhere in the fertilizer supply chain can quickly affect American farmers.

A new AFBF Market Intel report shows the U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand, and import exposure varies by nutrient. Roughly 97% of potassium is imported, 18% of nitrogen and 13% of phosphate. This import exposure increases sensitivity to global trade disruptions, particularly during seasonal demand peaks.

(American Farm Bureau Federation)

Short-Term Fixes: Policy and Supply

In the letter sent to the White House this week, AFBF president Zippy Duvall not only pointed out the fertilizer problem farmers now face, but he also outlined several steps the administration could take immediately to prevent supply disruptions and moderate prices.

Among the recommendations:

Using the U.S. Navy to help ensure safe maritime transit for fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Working with international partners to maintain open shipping lanes.
Addressing insurance barriers for vessels transporting fertilizer cargo through federal tools, such as programs administered by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.
Ensuring domestic ports, railroads and barge systems can quickly move fertilizer supplies to farms.
Temporarily waiving the Jones Act to improve domestic shipping capacity between U.S. ports.
Suspending countervailing duties on certain imported fertilizer products.

But while those actions could help ease pressure in the short term, fertilizer analysts say structural challenges in the market remain.

Are Fertilizer Prices in a Worst-Case Scenario?

While fertilizer is even more of a concern heading into spring, prices were already high, even before the situation unfolded in Iran earlier this month. According to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, many farmers are asking a more immediate question: Have fertilizer prices already reached the worst-case scenario?

Linville says the answer is “no.”

The reason, he explains, is that global fertilizer markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments — particularly those affecting major shipping lanes.

At the moment, much of that uncertainty centers around tensions involving Iran and the potential threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and fertilizer trade routes.

“Right now we still hold onto the hope that, within a couple days, we will put so much pressure on the Iranian regime and take out so many of their leaders that they become a shell,” Linville says. “All of a sudden they can no longer do the offensive attacks. They can no longer pressure the Strait of Hormuz and cause vessels to sit there and say, ‘I will not risk my ship, I will not risk my crew and I will not risk my load to go through a channel that’s that dangerous.’”

If tensions escalate to the point shipping companies refuse to move vessels through the region, fertilizer supply chains could face significant disruptions. A large portion of global nitrogen and phosphate trade flows through the Middle East, making the waterway critical to international fertilizer logistics.

But if the situation stabilizes quickly, Linville believes markets could recover just as fast.

“If we can knee-cap them to the point that they no longer have an offensive capability, and we can free flow back in the Strait of Hormuz, we’ve only lost several days — maybe a week,” he says. “And I think we can make that up very, very quickly.”

That means geopolitical risk remains one of the biggest wild cards in fertilizer markets. Prices could move sharply higher if trade routes are disrupted, but they could also stabilize if those risks fade.

What Are Possible Longer-Term Fixes?

While fertilizer prices may not have even seen the highs, especially if ships through the Strait aren’t able to get through, farmers searching for a single solution to high fertilizer prices are likely to be frustrated.

“People keep asking, ‘How do we fix this? How do we fix this?’” Linville says during a recent appearance on the Unscripted podcast . “No one answer is going to fix every fertilizer.”

Instead, Linville says the conversation needs to separate short-term relief from long-term structural fixes. When he looks at the nitrogen market, which includes urea, UAN and ammonia, Linville says there is at least one potential short-term lever policymakers could pull.

“In the short term, when I look at urea, when I look at nitrogen, my short-term view is simple: Get rid of DEF. Get rid of those regulations,” he says.

Diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), which is used in emissions systems for diesel engines, relies on urea as a key ingredient. Linville says that policy requirement diverts nitrogen away from agriculture.

“Everybody is begging for it because it’s terrible for equipment, and it puts a lot of that nitrogen back in the hands of the farmer,” Linville says. “That is a quick fix.”

But he says the bigger issue for nitrogen markets is production capacity.

Natural gas is the primary feedstock used to produce nitrogen fertilizer, and the United States and Canada have some of the cheapest natural gas supplies in the world. Yet North America still relies heavily on imported fertilizer.

“Longer term, we need to look at trying to invest more money,” Linville says. “Get similar-type loans to build new nitrogen facilities in the U.S. and Canada, wherever that might be. It needs to be a North America approach. That’s a long-term fix.”

Linville says governments have already shown a willingness to support fertilizer development projects, but those efforts have focused on the wrong nutrients.

“The government has given long-term loans to potash mines. That’s the one product we really don’t need more of,” he says. “I like that focus. I like that we’re increasing it. But potash is literally the last one that we need help with.”

Instead, he says those same financing tools should be directed toward nitrogen production facilities.

Building Fertilizer Plants Is a Massive Investment

Even if policymakers and investors move quickly, Linville says expanding fertilizer production is not a fast process. Fertilizer plants are some of the most complex and expensive facilities in the agricultural supply chain.

“It is multi-years and multi-billions of U.S. dollars,” Linville says.

To illustrate the scale of investment required, he points to a recent nitrogen plant transaction in Iowa.

“The Wever, Iowa, plant just sold not so long ago for $3-plus billion,” Linville says. “If the three of us came together and said, ‘You know what, let’s build a plant,’ a brand new world-scale facility is probably going to be $4 billion.”

Even after construction begins, production still takes time.

“You won’t see the first ton be produced and sold at a profit, at a margin, for probably at least 1.5 to 2 years, bare minimum. It’s a massive undertaking. There’s a lot of engineering, a lot of construction, a lot of land clearing. It’s not a fast process,” he says.

Still, Linville says increasing domestic production would help stabilize global fertilizer markets over time.

“If we produce here, we have more global supplies and less global demand because the U.S. and Canada are no longer calling on the rest of the world trying to buy these tons,” Linville says. “It helps smooth out the price curve.”

Should Fertilizer Companies Be Investigated?

As fertilizer prices climb, some policymakers are calling for closer scrutiny of the industry, citing concerns about consolidation and potential market manipulation. Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice launched an antitrust investigation into the U.S. fertilizer sector. According to a report from Bloomberg News, the probe is examining whether major fertilizer producers may have coordinated to push prices higher.

Companies reportedly included in the investigation are Nutrien, The Mosaic Company, CF Industries Holdings, Koch Industries and Yara International, firms that collectively represent a significant share of the U.S. nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer markets.

That’s in addition to USDA also saying an investigation would occur into fertilizer pricing, calling Mosaic and Nutrien a ‘duopoly.’

Linville says those investigations are unlikely to solve the underlying issue.

“You’re going to hear a lot of farmers’ heads pop off when I say this, but I’m going to say ‘no,’” Linville says.

Instead, he points to price data from the New Orleans fertilizer market, commonly referred to as NOLA, which serves as the benchmark for U.S. urea prices.

“Look at our NOLA urea price,” Linville says. “Again, New Orleans, Louisiana, it’s the most visible market out there. NOLA to urea is the same as Chicago is to corn. It’s our base place for that trade.”

When those prices are compared to global benchmarks, Linville says the U.S. market has actually been trading below world values.

“When you look at the NOLA urea price compared to the Middle East replacement value, and we watch the Middle East because half of our urea imports come from that region, we have been operating at a discount for the entirety of this fertilizer year since July 1, 2025. There’s not been a week where our price has been a premium to the world.” Linville adds.

Because the U.S. still imports millions of tons of fertilizer each year, domestic prices inevitably follow the global market.

“It doesn’t matter if you have three dozen manufacturers or three,” Linville says. “Our price is still going to ebb and flow with that world product price because we are still a net importer.”

Tariffs on Moroccan, Russian Phosphate Imports Up for Review

While nitrogen markets are heavily tied to natural gas and production capacity, phosphate fertilizers face a different set of challenges, particularly trade policy.

The U.S. currently has countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia that were implemented in 2021. Those duties are approaching a required five-year “sunset review,” which will determine whether they remain in place. That’s one thing AFBF stated this week that they’d like to see the Trump administration address.

But even before this week, groups such as NCGA have called on both the Trump and Biden administrations to remove the tariff, saying it’s only further driving up the prices farmers are paying.

“The countervailing duty against Morocco and Russia was officially put into place late March, early April 2021,” Linville says. “And it’s got a five-year sunset review. That’s exactly what we’re getting ready to move into.”

Some in the industry believe the review could result in those duties being overturned, opening the door for additional phosphate imports, but Linville isn’t convinced that outcome is likely.

“There’s a lot of excitement that they’re going to review this and overturn it,” he says. “I will say I have a higher-than-I-should optimism that they will overturn it and get rid of it. But the history of countervailing duty reviews would tell you there’s a very low chance that they’re going to overturn it.”

The reason is simple: Those reviews are supposed to be driven strictly by data. And in this case, the underlying conditions that led to the tariffs haven’t changed dramatically.

“Russia hasn’t changed practices. I don’t know that Morocco has changed enough of their practices.”

Still, he believes there is at least some possibility the political environment could influence the outcome.

“I have never seen an administration talk about fertilizer as much as this one has,” Linville says. “Because there’s been so much focus on the farmer and on fertilizer markets, there could be a political lean where they say, ‘Listen, I know what’s going on. You need to do something about this.’”

Even so, he cautions against farmers expecting a reversal.

A Complex Market With No Single Fix

Ultimately, fertilizer markets are shaped by a complex mix of energy prices, global trade flows, geopolitics and production capacity.
That means solving the fertilizer price puzzle will likely require a combination of policies, investments and international partnerships.

For farmers heading into the 2026 planting season, however, the immediate concern remains whether fertilizer supplies will arrive in time and at prices they can afford.

“It’s simple, guys,” Linville says. “But every fertilizer has a different path to fixing it.”

Control the Controllables To Capture More Bushels

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 19:27:18 GMT

A solid game plan addressing key fundamentals could be the most powerful risk-management tool farmers have going into the 2026 season, according to Randy Dowdy and David Hula. Here are four they encourage farmers to review and work on this winter:

Fuel The Crop Adequately

Hula stresses that even in low-margin years, you can’t cut corners on fundamental crop needs. He emphasizes using soil tests to manage N, P and K, looking at soil pH and applying lime where needed.

“When you think about where you’re spending dollars, you can’t waiver from that,” he says. “We have to cover the basics… there’s nothing that’s sexy about farming right now, [everyone’s] just trying to survive.”

Why Your Planter Is the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Yield

Randy Dowdy says the planter represents the “lowest hanging fruit” for yield improvement on 90% of U.S. farms.

“The planter is just not performing at the levels to reach the maximum potential that most farmers need to support and service debt,” Dowdy says.

He encourages growers to spend time in the shop, ensuring that every row unit is capable of delivering “picket fence” seed placement and performance. For Dowdy, this means every seed is placed at a consistent depth and spacing, emerging within a tight window of 10 to 12 Growing Degree Units (GDUs) of one another

“Does every seed have the same standard deviation between them, the placement from one seed to the next? Are they all singulated, and are they all coming up at the same time? If that’s not happening, that’s a big deal,” Dowdy says.

Consider Seed Size Along With Good Genetics

While every farmer is tuned into genetics, Dowdy and Hula say they can benefit from taking seed size into consideration, too.

One of the questions Hula says he often gets is, “What’s the best seed size to plant?”

After years of analyzing small rounds versus large flats, his philosophy has evolved into a practical rule of thumb.

“My answer now is simple: whatever your planter plants the best, that’s the seed you want to plant,” he says.

But that only works if you’ve done your homework on the meters—cleaning them, replacing worn parts, and calibrating them with actual seed to determine the vacuum and speed settings. Taking these steps can eliminate guesswork that leads to skips and doubles.

Generally, Dowdy observes that “Deere likes rounds, Precision likes flats.”

Both Dowdy and Hula caution against the temptation of buying plateless (mixed-size) seed just because it carries a lower price tag. Their take: if you use it, run side‑by‑side strips with good, graded seed so you can see the real yield cost.

“I’d really challenge [anyone using plateless seed] to plant some graded seed next to it… just so you could know what it’s costing you. It’s costing you money,” says Hula.

Take Only Calculated Risks, ‘Miss Small’

Dowdy says this is the year to “control the controllables” and stick with practices you know consistently pay. He warns that farmers can’t afford big mistakes in this economy. While he’s not afraid of trying new practices, he is afraid of not being profitable and not being able to service debt, so due diligence and ROI have to come first.

“If we’re going to have a fail, we don’t need to fail in a big way. We need to miss small in an economy like this,” Dowdy says. “I’ll put my big toe in the water, but it won’t be my whole foot and a bunch of acres.”

A Checklist For Reference This Winter

Here are additional highlights of recommendations Dowdy and Hula listed during their most recent Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast. These are not all-inclusive, but rather a starting point for farmers preparing for spring:

1. Soil and Fertility Basics

Lime and pH: Check pH by zone or grid. Apply lime only where pH is low. Avoid wasting inputs on ground at 6.5 or higher.
Manganese Alert: Watch for potential deficiencies in high pH spots (above 6.8).
P and K Strategy: Use recent soil tests to determine if Phosphorus can be reduced. Keep Potash a priority where base saturation justifies the spend.

2. The Planter Bar and Row Units

Parallel Arms: Inspect for “oblong” wear or side play. Replace any arms that aren’t tight.
Double-Disc Openers: Use a jig to check run-out. Only use blades that meet tight tolerances for a clean V-trench.
Gauge Wheels: Lift by hand. If they feel loose or drop instantly, adjust or replace the bushings and arms.
Alignment: Use a tape measure to verify every row is exactly on target (e.g., 30 inches). Ensure the toolbar is perfectly level front-to-back at operating height.

3. Seed Trench and Closing System

Centering: Run the planter across concrete. Ensure closing wheel marks are perfectly centered over the seed path.
Row Cleaners: Adjust “trash whippers” to move residue without gouging a deep furrow that could lead to erosion or crusting.

4. Seed and Meter Calibration

Match Seed to Meter: Generally, John Deere/ExactEmerge systems prefer rounds, while Precision Planting systems prefer flats.
The Meter Test: Replace worn belts and brushes. Calibrate meters annually on a test stand using your actual seed to determine the exact vacuum and speed settings.
The “Plateless” Warning: Avoid the temptation of cheap, mixed-size seed. If you use it, run a side-by-side strip against graded seed to measure the true cost of lost bushels.

5. Management Mindset

Miss Small: This is the year for calculated risks. Put your “big toe” in the water with new tech, but don’t commit the whole farm until you see a proven ROI on your own soil.
Check Strips: Always leave a clean, untreated check strip when trying new products for evaluation.

Hear the latest Breaking Barriers With R&D to learn more about Hula and Dowdy’s recommendations at Farm Journal TV and the YouTube link below.

What Does The Venezuela Situation Mean For U.S. Farmers?

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 22:28:18 GMT

The recent capture of Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro and subsequent discussions about opening the country’s vast oil reserves to Western investment have sparked a key question within the U.S. agriculture sector: What impact will this situation ultimately have on farmers?

While current headlines focus on immediate geopolitical shifts and the actions of energy companies, the resulting ripple effects could eventually reduce U.S. farmers’ fuel expenses and other input costs, according to Bob Elliott, co-founder of Unlimited Funds.

However, Elliot emphasizes that even if Western oil companies successfully establish operations in Venezuela, it will take years to repair the damaged infrastructure there and bring a meaningful new supply of oil online.

“While Venezuela has some of the largest proven oil reserves in the world they have been chronically under-producing due to decades of underinvestment and poor management,” he explains. “As we transition to a point where maybe more Western oil companies come in, they could invest and create supply but that’s a story that’s going to take years to unfold.”

If Western investment is successful, Venezuela could eventually add “a few million barrels per day” to the world’s supply, a volume significant enough to help drive global oil prices lower, Elliott notes. Over time, this increase in supply could ease costs for diesel and gasoline, reduce input expenses (including fertilizer and freight) and generally improve the overall cost of production for farmers.

Don’t Expect Any Short-Term Relief

Despite the long-term potential, Elliott emphasizes that the current developments offer little to no immediate benefit for farmers and consumers.

“If you’re looking to get a little relief at the gas pump, it’s not going to happen from this effect anytime soon,” he says.

Furthermore, cheaper global oil, influenced by Venezuelan supply, would introduce a trade-off for U.S. oil-producing regions.

Elliott explains that “at $60 oil, we’re right on the cusp of break evens for the major U.S. oil producing regions.” The implication is that farm communities closely tied to oil and gas employment could experience economic fallout if domestic prices were to drop too sharply. Even so, Elliott believes farmers across the country would still welcome lower fuel and freight costs.

The U.S. Advantage In Refining Venezuelan Crude

From a logistical standpoint, Elliott points out that the U.S. refining industry is well-equipped to handle the specific type of crude that comes from Venezuela, which is a “sour” crude.

Sour crude is characterized by a high sulfur content (over 0.5%) and significant amounts of hydrogen sulfide, making it more corrosive and challenging—and thus more costly—to refine than “sweet” (low-sulfur) crude, according to the American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers.

“We’ve got the refiners that can handle the sour crude that comes out of Venezuela down in Texas… we’re set up better to handle that kind of crude oil than any country in the world, really,” notes Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk.

Strategic Outlook for Farmers

Elliott points out that the Venezuelan situation is unfolding against a backdrop of wider geopolitical tensions, including concerns surrounding Iran and other global conflicts.

“All of those highlight some of the uncertainties in the geopolitical picture coming into 2026. It’s part of the reason why gold is getting such a bid to open the new year here,” he notes.

Elliott says the best course of action for farmers is to continue managing their fuel as if the market will remain tight—while simultaneously recognizing that, a few years down the line, new barrels from Venezuela could significantly shift the cost landscape in agriculture’s favor.

Hear the full conversation between Elliott and Flory on AgriTalk at the link below:

Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:12:38 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

Beyond Bushels: Align High-Yield Strategies With Your Crop Budget

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 20:30:45 GMT

A practical crop budget can serve as a valuable farming playbook, offering essential direction and guidance from planting through harvest, according to farmers and business partners David Hula and Randy Dowdy.

“Return on Investment (ROI) is the primary focus for the year ahead,” says Dowdy, who farms near Valdosta, Ga. “Everybody is trying to figure out how to survive this lean time, because we don’t have $8 corn or $15 beans.”

Start The Season Strong

For Hula, the strategy for achieving both high yields and ROI begins with selecting the right hybrids and using excellent planting practices, followed by consistent nutrition.

“You want to feel optimistic that you’re going to have high yield potential starting out,” he says. “Then, you need to make sure the crop has all the groceries it needs, because if it runs out of juice at any one time, you’ve just hit the minus button.”

Power Of Finishing The Crop

Hula highlights that another critical component of maximizing ROI, even in current tight markets, is finishing the crop well.

He shares that despite having a challenging growing season this year, his dryland acres achieved their third-best farmgate average. He attributes that to ensuring the crop received the necessary resources late in the season, especially a fungicide application.

“We felt pretty confident [the crop] was going to deliver... and that was mostly because we finished it well. We were picking 66.7 to 67 pounds test weight corn at harvest,” reports Hula, who is based near Charles City, Va.

“Finishing the crop is by far where a lot of people leave a lot of yield on the table,” adds Dowdy.

Use ‘Bushels’ To Track Costs

The current market outlook for 2026 necessitates a sharp focus on expense management, Dowdy notes.

“Obviously servicing debt is still on everybody’s mind. A farmer should never cut out anything that he or she knows makes money. But the problem is sometimes they don’t always know what that is,” he says.

When planning the budget, Hula urges growers to shift their perspective away from the cost of the input and toward the bushel return needed to justify it.

He offers, as an example: “For me to do in-furrow, that requires seven bushels. If I’m not going to get a seven-bushel return per acre, I’m not going to do it.”

Hula believes the bushel ROI mindset should be applied to all inputs. By framing decisions in terms of bushels rather than dollars, he says growers can more easily see the economic impact of each investment they make.

Make Every Input Pay Its Way

Hula and Dowdy are spending significant time this winter consulting with growers on budget strategies through their business, Total Acre . In many cases, they are stressing the importance of refining in-season input applications to make them more efficient, rather than cutting them completely.

“We can keep some of the in-season applications and make them more efficient by placement,” Dowdy says. “The goal is not merely to cut costs, but to find better, more efficient ways to invest money that directly leads to a higher ROI.”

Dowdy and Hula discuss their budgeting recommendations in more detail in their latest Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast discussion on Farm Journal TV and YouTube via the link here:

You can also hear Hula and Dowdy’s latest discussion on AgriTalk here:

Maximize Yields and Savings with Proven Nutrient Strategies

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 15:08:37 GMT

The outlook for fertilizer costs versus commodity prices for next season is a tough one for corn and soybean growers across the country.
With that fact in mind, we have compiled a number of our “best of” nutrient stories from 2025 for your consideration.

Our hope is one or more of the following five articles will help you reduce expenses, reallocate resources and build a solid fertility program for the 2026 that works well for your crops and gives you some peace of mind in the process.

26 Ways To Cut Costs Without Sacrificing Yields
If you made deep cuts to your fertility program this season, are you considering whether you can cut even deeper next year?

If so, be sure to check out this article: 26 Ideas To Cut Fertilizer Costs In 2026 . It offers a variety of suggestions from agronomists and other farmers on where you might be able to reduce product use and reallocate resources.

While there are no easy answers to address the cost of fertilizer and other inputs, having conversations with your suppliers and financial providers now can help you leverage your buying power and minimize potential impacts from marketplace uncertainties. For more insights, check out this article: Navigate 2026 Input Costs with A Proactive Strategy .

Reallocate Nutrients And Still Support Yields
Farmers know that nitrogen is the main gas that fuels corn yields. Other macronutrients and micronutrients such as zinc, iron, and manganese also contribute to yield performance. Be sure to check out our article 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K to learn more.

If you’re looking specifically at how to make phosphorus more efficient, be sure to check out our Farm Journal Test Plot article on the topic: 7 Tips To Make Your Phosphorus Work For You

Every agronomist says to soil test your fields to make sure they are up to the challenge of delivering profitable yields in the most cost-effective way possible. While you’ve probably heard that advice a thousand times, it’s still valuable.That’s where this article comes into play, which features national corn yield champions’ perspective: In This High-Stakes Farming Economy, Some Practices Still Deliver ROI

For even more ideas on how to create a fertility plan best-suited to your needs, check out:

The 4Rs of Fertility
Focus on fertility to prevent pollution and boost profits.

The Challenge of Nitrogen
In your quest for high yields, nothing is more crucial, or more difficult, than managing corn’s most important nutrient.

A Moving Target
Preventing corn from going hungry requires balancing nitrogen and other factors, from year to year and field to field.

The Great Escape
Stabilizers and controlled-release products help keep the Houdini of nutrients where your crop needs it.

In the “Lime” Light
Correct acidity to create diverse microbial populations, which decompose residue and release soil nutrients.

Potassium Insight
Drought emphasizes the value of this vital nutrient.

Hope on the Horizon: Farmers Anticipate 'Bridge Payment' Announcement

Tue, 02 Dec 2025 21:27:48 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Tuesday that the Trump administration will announce a “bridge payment” for farmers next week that will provide short-term relief while longer trade and aid packages are finalized. The dollar amount has not been disclosed, though some groups have estimated the total amount will be in the neighborhood of $12 billion.

While many growers acknowledge the necessity of such ad-hoc payments amid mounting financial challenges, other farmers question whether the stopgap measures offer real solutions. Northeast Iowa farmer Tim Burrack says he is in both camps regarding the payments.

“Yeah, there’s people that can really use them. Everyone can use them,” says Burrack. “Our cost structure is terrible – our costs versus our returns. But in the big picture, I think these ad-hoc payments just kind of pacify us. We’re not getting real solutions.”

Farmers Want Market Opportunities
Burrack ticks off a short list of actions he believes the Trump administration needs to take that can help corn and soybean farmers. Chief among them, more export market opportunities and reduced trade barriers.

“We’re not getting our biofuel solutions,” Burrack adds. “We’re not getting E15, and now it looks like we still may allow imported feedstocks from China.”

Despite time to do so, Congress has not voted on legislation that would allow consumers across the country to access E15 year-round, according to Jed Bower, Ohio farmer and National Corn Growers Association president.

Northeast Kansas farmer Ken McCauley shares Bower’s sentiment. “President Trump has to come through on this. E15 is a no-lose deal,” says McCauley.

Like Burrack, McCauley favors the use of ad hoc payments to farmers in the short-term. “These payments do help, but I think they give a poor signal to input suppliers that we can keep this up, that everything’s going to work out. But it might not work out,” he says. “We’re talking some high numbers [of farmers at risk]. It’s not like the ‘80s, but it could get there pretty quick.”

Burrack says he is more concerned about the long-term future for American farmers and consumers, as well.

“My bigger concern is the federal government and the debt,” he says. “The issue is the American people are not prepared for the pain that’s coming because of the deficits. Either we’re going to be paying a lot more taxes, or people are going to have a lot less services, and no one wants to do either one. I don’t know how that’s going to turn out, but that’s the big concern I have.”

For more insights from Burrack and McCauley, listen to their discussion on AgriTalk with Host Chip Flory:

Avoid The Pitfall of Leasing Farmland With Low Fertility

Mon, 01 Dec 2025 22:46:05 GMT

Farmland often changes hands in the fall, and such exchanges are currently underway across the country as farmers and landlords look to finalize deals for the 2026 season. But some of the ground changing hands is in poor condition with regard to fertility, according to Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

“I’m really shocked at how poor the stewardship is on some of these farms,” says Ferrie, who is seeing the issue in central Illinois, where he’s based. “We have seen multiple pieces of ground this fall that have been literally sucked dry of fertility and are sitting in bad shape on pH.”

While Ferrie isn’t sure how widespread the issue is, he says more farmers have reached out to him about the problem than in previous years. He attributes much of the issue to non-operating, absentee landowners who might not understand the need for good stewardship practices to keep ground productive. In other cases, he is concerned some landowners are simply interested in financial gain.

“It’s often land they inherited, [and they’re] two or three generations away from farming,” Ferrie says. “They look at it like an investment in the stock market.... In many cases, their relatives, the original landowner, would be turning over in their graves if they could see what’s happening to some of this ground.”

Conservation Practices On Rented Ground
Around 40% of all farmland in the U.S. is rented — in some U.S. counties that number is nearing 80%. According to USDA data, 283 million acres (30% of all farmland) are owned by non-operator landlords — those who own land used in agricultural production but are not actively involved in farming it.

The American Farmland Trust (AFT) reports that many non-operating landowners are unfamiliar with conservation practices or have difficulty discussing long-term goals with their renters. One survey found that 65% of non-operating landowners rely on their farm operator or someone else to make decisions on conservation practices.

“This dynamic can lead to a lack of investment in practices that improve productivity and resiliency of the land,” AFT reports. “Some of the areas with the highest rates of rental agricultural land are also those experiencing high rates of soil erosion and nutrient losses.”

Due Diligence Can Prevent A Costly Investment
Leasing land with low fertility levels can create financial hardship for unsuspecting growers. Such “hidden” costs frequently impact younger farmers who have limited resources and opportunities to rent ground.

“Many times, it’s our younger growers looking for land to expand their operation that seem to get caught up in these sucked-dry, short-term cash rent scenarios,” Ferrie says. “For short-term leases, that could be an anvil around your neck. There may not be a way to gain profitability short-term on some of these farms.”

While cash rents are softening slightly in some states for 2026, they still represent a huge investment for growers who are unlikely to see improved commodity prices to counter their investment in land and other inputs.

Table 1 provides average USDA cash rents across 4 land classes defined by soil productivity index (SPI). Average cash rents declined for the excellent, good, and average land classes while average rents slightly increased for areas classified as fair. Table 1 also provides average cash rents by land class as reported by the Illinois Society of Professional Farm Managers and Rural Appraisers (ISPFMRA). Average rents on professionally managed farmland tend to be higher than the averages reported by USDA.

(USDA and others as noted)

Ferrie’s advice for farmers looking to pick up more ground: do your homework thoroughly before signing on any dotted line. Here are three steps he recommends farmers take as they consider renting new ground for the year ahead:

1. Avoid making assumptions. “Don’t assume just because a piece of land is being managed, that stewardship is being followed,” Ferrie cautions. “Farm managers work for landlords/owners. If they want the farm taken care of so it can be passed down to future generations, they’ll make it happen. If the landlord wants the highest return without any regard to stewardship that, too, is the farm manager’s job,” he explains.

2. Ask for current soil tests and yield maps. That will provide some insights on how the ground has been treated and its general productivity.
“If the leaser is not supplying any information, talk to the neighbors, if possible. Ask whether they ever see a lime truck on the farm,” he says.

Another option is to ask the leaser if you can pull some spot soil samples to get a feel for fertility in the field.

“If the answer or situation is no, ask about a conditional lease based on soil fertility levels once you do get the field tested,” Ferrie advises.

3. Gather information about past practices on the ground. For example, Ferrie says if you no-till, you’ll want to evaluate whether there are horizontal layers present in the field.

“I’ve seen in many situations where the No. 1 hurdle is removing compaction layers left by the previous tenant,” Ferrie says. “If you rent the ground, you’ll need a plan with your agronomist on how to address that.”

Different Factors Influence Farmers Who Are Buying Land
Ferrie points out that poor soil fertility across a parcel of ground might not be as concerning for farmers who are purchasing the property.

“I’ve been told by more than one realtor and farm manager that soil fertility doesn’t matter when selling a piece of ground, and that low-fertility fields will bring the same as farms that have received good stewardship. And this is apparently true based on what I’m seeing on farms that we are testing,” he reports.

He believes the reason is those farmers often have confidence that they can bring their new ground up to speed production-wise over time. And time is on their side as most buyers make the investment planning to hold onto the ground for the long haul.

Your next read: Ag Lenders Anticipate Only Half of U.S. Farm Borrowers to Turn a Profit in 2025

New House Bill Pushes For Fertilizer Price Transparency

Thu, 20 Nov 2025 19:40:04 GMT

A companion bill to the Fertilizer Research Act has been introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives.

The House version, sponsored by U.S. Congresswoman Ashley Hinson (R-IA), echoes the same goal as the Senate’s Fertilizer Research Act of 2025 (S.2808) – to provide U.S. farmers with more clarity and certainty regarding fertilizer costs and supply.

“America’s farmers are being squeezed by high fertilizer costs and low commodity prices, making it incredibly difficult to afford the inputs needed to maintain strong yields,” Hinson said in a statement on Thursday, noting that farmers tell her they need greater fertilizer price transparency and stability.

The legislation, if passed, would require the USDA to conduct a study on the competition and trends in the fertilizer market and their subsequent impact on fertilizer prices and then provide a comprehensive report of the agency’s findings.

The study would examine market competition and trends, the impact of these trends on fertilizer prices, the size and value of the U.S. market over the past 25 years, and the impact of anti-dumping and countervailing duties on retail fertilizer prices. It would also assess market concentration and the regulatory environment.

Within one year of the bill’s passage, the Secretary of Agriculture, in consultation with the Economic Research Service, would be required to issue a report on USDA’s website regarding the U.S. fertilizer industry.

Mark Mueller , an Iowa farmer and president of the Iowa Corn Growers Association, had said during a Senate hearing last month that increases in fertilizer costs are “crushing corn growers” in Iowa and other states.

“We need to assess the fertilizer industry to better understand pricing practices, tariffs and the exertion of market power by companies within the industry,” Mueller added. “The continued commitment to highlighting the impact of fertilizer prices on corn farmers does not go unnoticed by Iowa’s corn growers.”

Co-sponsors of the bipartisan House bill included Republican Randy Feenstra of Iowa, and Democrats Nikki Budzinski of Illinois and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez of Washington.

Budzinski noted, “Fertilizer is an essential tool for farmers to maximize their crop yields, but they often lack insight into how fertilizer prices are determined – making it harder to balance their books. I’m proud to introduce this common-sense, bipartisan legislation to give our farmers more transparency and ensure that farm inputs are priced fairly.”

Hinson said that the House bill is supported by the American Soybean Association, the National Farmers Union, the Iowa Farmers Union, the Iowa Farm Bureau, the Iowa Corn Growers Association, and the Iowa Soybean Association.

Your next read: Fertilizer Prices Under Fire: Monopoly or Markets to Blame?

In This High-Stakes Farming Economy, Some Practices Still Deliver ROI

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 20:47:14 GMT

Some agronomic decisions do provide an annual return-on-investment (ROI) you can count on, according to corn yield champions David Hula and Randy Dowdy. One of those, they say, is soil testing fields in 1-acre grids and then using the resulting information to guide fertility decisions.

“If people are used to going across the field and watching a yield monitor vary significantly, say from 300 bushels down to 200 bushels in a pass, there’s a reason why that is and a lot of it has to do with soil fertility,” says Dowdy, who farms near Valdosta, Ga. “Pulling samples in a 1-acre grid can help you identify where variability is in the field better than a 2.5-acre grid or a zone sample can.”

Hula agrees and uses a medical analogy to explain the value of 1-acre grids. “It’s like the more detailed information you can get from an MRI versus an X-ray,” says Hula, who farms near Charles City, Va.

Dowdy and Hula encourage farmers to prioritize soil tests this fall, starting with any ground they own. “Every acre I own would definitely get tested, starting with the tiled ground because it’s going to give you the biggest ROI versus the not tiled ground,” Hula says.

Making Assumptions Can Be Costly
Growers who are reluctant to soil test this year because of costs might want to reconsider, as one of Hula’s recent experiences demonstrates.

Hula says he had not limed his farm ground for several years, due to a lack of product availability. “First, the lime quarries broke down, and then they ran out of lime, so we just couldn’t get it done,” he recalls.

As a result, Hula anticipated spreading 6,000 tons of lime across his corn ground this year. But instead of simply making that assumption, he pulled soil samples in 1-acre grids across 4,000 acres.

To Hula’s surprise, soil sample results showed his fields needed a lot less lime than anticipated.

“We only needed 2,600 tons of lime spread,” Hula reports. “Yes, there were costs associated with the testing, but the savings we got was more than enough to cover that.”

Dowdy and Hula, who work as partners in Total Acre , offered more money-making and saving ideas during their latest Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast, available on YouTube.

Consider Lime Type And Source
The goal, Dowdy says, is to have a soil pH in the neutral to 6.8 range across all acres. “An old timer told me a long time ago, ‘the cheapest fertilizer you’ll ever buy is lime,’ because it’s going to help you get the maximum efficacy from all your nutrients,” he explains.

If tests indicate soils need a pH adjustment, give careful consideration to the type of lime that will provide the biggest ROI in 2026.

“Understand the source of lime, whether you need magnesium or not and also understand whether it is a coarse or a fine-textured lime,” Hula advises.

The finer textured lime is what’s needed for a spring application. A coarse lime can take a couple of years to break down and become available for soil uptake.

Farmers who applied a coarse lime last fall need to be aware of that, so they don’t over-correct on lime applications this next spring. “You don’t want a situation where it all kicks in on the same year,” Hula cautions.

“Likewise, don’t use that as an excuse to not lime, if what you applied two years ago still hasn’t shown up. Understand what kind of lime or other fertility need your soils have now going into the season,” Dowdy advises.

Dowdy and Hula addressed the value of soil testing in more detail during their recent conversation with Chip Flory on this episode of AgriTalk. Listen to it here:

Your next read: Add 75+ Bushels Of Corn Per Acre With Better Closing Wheel Performance

8 Expert Tips for Choosing the Best Seed Corn for 2026

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 16:07:55 GMT

Think of seed selection for next year as an opportunity for profit enhancement. With low commodity prices and higher input costs, identifying corn hybrids that are a good fit for your soil types and environmental conditions is more important than ever – and can give you a leg up on higher yields from the get-go next spring.

Here are eight top tips Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie offers that will help you in your seed corn selection process.

1. Put performance and yield performance above the price. Yes, seed corn is expensive, but focus on what the hybrid can deliver instead of how much cheaper one hybrid is over another and pencil out the potential ROI.

“If I ask a grower what hybrids he is going to plant and he reels off a list of maturity ranges, rather than specific hybrids or traits, I know he spent too much time looking for the best deal and too little time seeking the best performers,” Ferrie says.

2. Spread your risk. Midwest corn growers often plant their crop in five to seven days so don’t plant just one or two outstanding hybrids. That could create the unacceptable risk of all your corn pollinating at the same time and being subject to heat and other stresses that are present at that point.

“Not long ago, one hybrid had two big years, so growers planted a lot of it the following season,” Ferrie says. “Only then did they discover that the hybrid couldn’t handle 96°F temperatures during pollination and ear fill — it got kicked in the teeth on yield. That hybrid still won a lot of plots that year, but only in northern areas, where temperatures were cooler. If a disease problem had shown up, growers could have managed it by applying a fungicide; but you can’t manage against heat.”

3. Make new hybrids prove themselves. Don’t build your whole starting lineup for next season with hybrid rookies or one-hit wonders.

“Put a few of them on the bench, and keep them on a small number of acres until they prove their way,” Ferrie advises.

“Also, don’t throw out hybrids just because you’ve been told they’re old, and that the new kid is here to replace them. Keep those hybrids as long as they continue to perform, and make the new kids earn their way into the lineup through performance,” he adds.

Back to spreading risk — once your draft board is picked from multiple maturities, and are all-star performers, then group them into early- mid- and late-season hybrids so you have a large pool of hybrid candidates to choose from.

4. Use information from test plots. The purpose of test plots is to help guide your seed choices for next year. But you must know the right way to use the information.

“First, understand the difference between show plots and test plots,” Ferrie advises. “Don’t make your seed choices based only on show plots. Show plots have value in demonstrating higher-end genetics. But they are planted next to a road to show off hybrids in ideal conditions.

“Show plots may have received extra nitrogen and two fungicide applications. If you don’t sidedress nitrogen or apply fungicides on your own farm, show plot results may be meaningless to you.”

Study actual test plots that were planted with soil, climate and management practices similar to your own. Taking factors like these into account may add another 15 bu. or 20 bu. per acre, compared with picking hybrids based on general plot performance, Ferrie says.

Although test plots are valuable, it’s possible to rely on them too much, he cautions. “Weather makes hybrids shine,” he says. “Look at regional plot data over a period of years. It will tell you if a hybrid is not suited for your conditions, such as high temperatures.”

5. Make sure you are getting a mix of genetics. When analyzing test plot data, keep in mind that genetically identical hybrids may be marketed by several companies.

“I have seen growers plant the three or four top hybrids in local plots and then discover they all contained the same genetics, only from different companies,” Ferrie says. “That does not diversify risk.”

To avoid planting identical genetics from several companies, check the seed tags. Under the Federal Seed Act, companies are required to include the unique variety name (as opposed to the company’s brand name or number).

You also can ask your seedsman to help identify similar genetic lines sold by other companies. Or you can buy all your hybrids from one company.

6. Consider each field’s environment and match it to your hybrids. Look at each individual field and make a list of its strengths and weaknesses.

“We need to add players to the team that will help strengthen the weak areas in our present hybrid lineup,” Ferrie says. “In the process of truly identifying a field’s weaknesses and strengths, the farm management, operators, and the pest team must come together and compare notes.”

The reason to involve those various individuals or teams is because each one has a different perspective on what’s important and needed in a hybrid and in each specific field.

“Management may be looking at volume discounts or non-GMO contracts; whereas, the operating crew is looking at how tough it is to get corn up in a certain field or how quick it runs out of water in another. Likewise, the pest team may be concerned about diseases or resistant weeds that they are trying to control,” Ferrie explains.

7. Follow your plan and keep good records. “Often, I see growers lay out a nice plan, showing where each hybrid is going to go, based on soil conditions,” Ferrie says. “But in the stress of planting season, they fail to plant each hybrid where they intended.

“This leads to all kinds of unfavorable consequences. I’ve witnessed growers put a hybrid that resists deer damage next to a highway instead of next to their woods. Others plant herbicide-resistant hybrids where conventional hybrids were supposed to go, leading to misapplication of herbicides,” Ferrie says. “Losing track of which hybrids go where has caused some growers to plant their refuge hybrids without an insecticide.”
As you implement your plan, record keeping is critical.

“If planting conditions force you to deviate from your plan, be diligent in recording what you did. It will keep you from spraying a conventional hybrid with Roundup or Liberty herbicide or failing to apply an insecticide on conventional hybrids,” Ferrie says.

With newer planter monitors, you can build an as-applied map, showing what hybrid was planted in each field, on which date.
“If you have an older planter, you can record this information in a book in the tractor cab,” Ferrie says. “Some growers do both, in case they have a computer problem and lose some data.”

8. Make sure you utilize your best resource – your seedsman. Many farmers don’t use their seedsman enough, Ferrie contends.

He says there are a lot of good seedsmen out there, and they understand their products. Most have seen all of their hybrids under a variety of conditions and management styles, and they can relate that experience to your operation.

“Discuss your situation and your management techniques, such as your rotation, tillage and fertility program. Talk about your harvest schedule and things like how much wet corn you can handle,” he says.

Drill down and ask about hybrid strengths and weaknesses—like disease and insect resistance, drought tolerance, emergence and standability. “If you identify a top-yielding hybrid, ask your seedsman how you can farm out its weakness and manage around it,” Ferrie advises.

Darrell Smith contributed to this article.

Your next read: Manage Corn Yield Drag with Hybrid Selection

Farm Equipment Auctions Soaring Despite Stagnant Economy: Unpacking What's Next

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 16:42:58 GMT

Casey Seymour and Greg “Machinery Pete” Peterson see a used equipment market that has flipped from last year, when dealers pushed out a glut of late model, used equipment to auction.

Today, the number of 1–to-3-year-old high-horsepower tractors (300 hp and up) on the market is down 60% from last year, and late model combine listings are down 54%, according to Pete. Yet surprisingly, auction activity is up 14% from last year, too.

So, retail sales and the farm equipment market are in a prolonged slump, but auctions are still booming. It’s an odd juxtaposition, and dealers have to figure out how to navigate the uncertainty in the middle of the busy auction season.

“If I’m a dealer, and 2024 was painful and we’re having these huge losses, but we keep talking about [having] this footing – that’s why you’re not having a huge sale – but maybe [you’re] streaming out five tractors on this auction or two on that one,” Pete says. “That’s what I’m seeing. Whereas last year it was just, the spigot was open, and dealer items were everywhere.”

Seymour expected more dealer liquidation auctions in Q4, but dealer reps tell him they are not planning a big push of equipment to auction this year.

“[We] have this stagnant marketplace, where it’s not getting any better, and it’s not getting any worse,” he says. “You’re just kind of stuck in the middle. But to still see the auction activity that we’re seeing and the prices we’re seeing, it feels like we’re at the bottom.”

Pete agrees with that take, pointing to a growing trend of multi-dealer auctions, like the Rich & Rich Red Power Auction this weekend in North Carolina, as another sign the market is down. He is also seeing an increase in farm retirement auctions as farmers try to avoid losing equity.

Pete wonders if the rumored farmer aid package from the Trump administration will spark a dead-cat bounce on used machinery values and farmer buying activity?

“I don’t see that making its way to the equipment side. They’re going to shore up [debts] first, build back up and then probably [buy] inputs, but I guess it depends on if it’s taxable or not,” Seymour says.

Pete and Seymour tried to stick to farm equipment trends and what’s happening in the auction world, but the guys could not ignore the giant elephant in the room. They share thoughts on the impact of social media on political tensions in rural America, and why they think politicians should come down to an in-person auction and have some real conversations with real Americans.

The Rest of The Episode

Commodities analyst Shawn Hackett joins Seymour to break down the impact of the U.S. government shutdown on crop prices, and used equipment specialist Aaron Fintel closes out the episode with a chat about how livestock payments are driving more buying activity on loader tractors out west in his neck of the woods.

Head over to YouTube to watch the full episode. Please be sure to hit the “Thumbs Up” button to “Like” the video and click on the “Subscribe” button to get a notification when a new episode drops.

Your Next Read: Machinery Pete’s 5 Pointers For Equipment Auctions

Corn Growers' New Leader Says Profitability Is Top Priority

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 21:49:43 GMT

The new farmer leader for the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) says profitability is his No. 1 priority as he starts his one-year term and plans for the year ahead.

“It’s just not where it needs to be at the farm level. We’re looking at a 90-some-cent loss per bushel as we look at next year’s crop to put out,” says Jed Bower, NCGA president and a fifth-generation farmer from Fayette County, Ohio.

While Bower says export numbers are good, he notes the market doesn’t reflect that positive picture, and more opportunity for U.S. corn is needed.

It’s why, during a recent conversation with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins, Bower encouraged her to “go after the big players” domestically and abroad to boost market opportunities for corn.

“We need to move large volumes. The small volumes are great, but large volumes are going to be what helps rural America,” Bower told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week.

For the same reason – to boost profitability – Bower says NCGA continues to encourage Congress to pass legislation that would increase consumer access to higher blends of ethanol year-round.

Corn grower leaders have repeatedly claimed that one of the quickest ways to create more demand for corn is by passing the Nationwide Consumer and Fuel Retailer Choice Act of 2025. It would remove an outdated regulation under the Clean Air Act that bans the sale of fuel with 15% ethanol blends during the summer months.

“We’re pushing for this E15 thing – almost had it over the line last December,” Bower says. “We’re close again, but there’s just so many things that aren’t going on in Washington right now that we need to keep having those conversations.”

Positive Action By California Governor Newsom
Significant encouragement regarding E15 came by way of Gov. Gavin Newsom (D-Calif.) just last week, when he signed a bill on Oct. 2 legalizing fuels with 15% ethanol blends.

“The potential volume for California alone is just tremendous,” Bower says. “I never thought I would be thanking the governor of California for signing that in, you know. That’s just not something that was on my radar, and I’m super pumped about it.”

Bower’s hope is the support Newsom gives for E15 puts leverage on the Trump administration and Congress to act immediately.

“Because, as we’ve talked numerous times, E15 cost taxpayers nothing,” Bower says. “It lowers the cost of gas at the pump for all their constituents, and for every 1% that we raise the blend, you’ve got 450-plus million bushels more grind. That helps make our corn worth a little more, and in turn, that strengthens rural America.”

The Need For More Trade And Fewer Regulatory Hurdles
During Bower’s time on AgriTalk, Flory asked him about his initial interactions with USDA Secretary Rollins and Environmental Protection Agency Administrator Lee Zeldin.

Bower says Rollins “appears to be a quick study,” and he appreciates how much she is advocating in the world marketplace on behalf of U.S. agricultural products.

“I think that is huge,” Bower told Flory. “We’ve seen Brazil doing that the past couple years for their products, and beating us to a lot of punches. We really appreciate Secretary Rollins for taking the time to travel around the world to push American ag products.”

Regarding Secretary Zeldin, Bower says he looks forward to meeting him in the near future, and that Zeldin seems to be bringing “common sense” back to the regulatory playing field.

“A lot of these regulations drive up the cost of what we need to do as farmers,” Bower says. “Secretary Zeldin has been accessible to a lot of our staff, and I’m looking forward to diving into some of the regulatory issues we have and see if we can’t get a little more relief in some of those areas.”

For more insights into Bower’s perspective on market opportunities for corn and his hope for reducing regulatory pressures on farmers, be sure to listen to his conversation with Flory on AgriTalk, available here:

Tiny Tech, Big Impact: Purdue Researchers Harness Nanotechnology to Transform Farming

Mon, 06 Oct 2025 20:19:33 GMT

At Purdue University, researchers are working at the tiniest scale to tackle some of agriculture’s biggest challenges. While their innovations may be microscopic, their impact could transform how the world grows its food.

Unlocking the Power of Nanoparticles in the Field

Tucked away in a quiet upstairs lab, scientists are developing “nanocarriers"— ultra-tiny particles designed to deliver pesticides, fungicides and herbicides more precisely to plants.

“We work with agrochemicals from insecticides to fungicides and [are] even starting to work with herbicides now,” says Caleb Fretz, a Purdue PhD student. “The goal is to try to increase the delivery efficiency of those active ingredients using nano delivery as a way of getting them to their biological targets.”

Currently, less than 0.1% of pesticides actually reach their intended targets. Purdue’s team hopes to boost that to 1% or more — a tenfold leap that could revolutionize efficiency and cut costs for farmers.

“If we can get even 1% of our pesticide to its target, that’s a huge leap in efficiency,” adds Luke Johnson, a fellow PhD student in Agricultural and Biological Engineering.

Assistant professor Kurt Ristroph , who leads related nanotechnology work at Purdue, highlights the broader vision.

“Our team’s focus on nanocarriers could make crop agriculture more sustainable and climate-resilient,” he says.

Precision Targeting: How Nano-Encapsulation Works

These particles, often organic and built with a protective shell, are engineered to shield and deliver their active ingredients exactly where crops need them most. The nano-shells allow them to travel through a plant’s leaf, stem and roots to get closer to the target.

Citrus Greening, a disease currently devastating orange trees in Florida, often takes up residence in the tree’s phloem. That area is traditionally a hard-to-access region where pests and diseases hide.

“We can tune what we put on the surface and the size [of the particle] to better reach those targets,” Johnson says.

They’re also able to engineer surface charges and add biomolecules, like sugars, in order to direct treatments to precise locations inside plants.

“If we can translocate our nanopesticide through the leaf, stem and down to the roots where pests lay eggs, we can dramatically reduce the amount of chemicals needed,” explains fellow researcher Bilal Ahmed.

Tracking these particles is also crucial as the technology prepares to undergo regulatory approval.

“I am developing ways to track these particles using metals, tagging them with different receptors,” Fretz says. “That way, we know exactly where they go — whether to the roots, inside the phloem or elsewhere.”

Collaboration and the Road to Sustainable Agriculture

This research is part of a larger collaboration across academia, industry and government.

Ristroph recently organized a major symposium on nanotechnology for plant drug delivery, with findings published in Nature Nanotechnology.

“The precise delivery enabled by nanotechnology could revolutionize agriculture,” notes Professor Greg Lowry from Carnegie Mellon University, a co-author of the study. “But, there are still technical challenges we must address.”

For Purdue’s team, practical application is just as important as scientific discovery.

“It needs to be something you can load in your sprayer and apply just like current formulations,” Fretz says.

The aim is to make the transition seamless for farmers, enabling quick adoption and scaling.

As agriculture faces rising costs, climate variability, and a need to limit environmental impact, this nano-scale innovation offers hope.

“We want to apply less pesticide, less often —improving farmers’ bottom lines and reducing chemicals in the environment,” Johnson says.

It’s a tiny idea with the potential for a giant leap in global farming — one that could make agriculture more efficient, affordable and sustainable for generations to come.

Survey High: 91% of Ag Economists Say Crop Sector in Recession, Losses Likely Through 2026

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 17:15:47 GMT

The financial squeeze gripping row crop agriculture is only growing more severe, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor. As of September, 91% think the U.S. crops sector is in a recession, which is an all-time high for the anonymous survey, and few see relief in sight.

In July, 53% of ag economists responded agriculture was in a recession. That number was 72% in May .

Economists point to low grain prices, high input costs and trade uncertainty, especially with China, as t he biggest drags on the farm economy . Beef prices are providing some cushion, but economists say it’s not enough to offset row crop challenges.

“2025 is bringing negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops, with 2026 setting up to be another negative returns year.”
“Multiple years of low to no profitability qualifies as a recession to me.”
“We are near record low prices and record high inputs.”
“Net farm income is consistently negative.”
“I fear that commodity prices may have found a ‘new normal,’ so adjustments may have to occur (painfully) on the cost side.”

Those economists who say row crop agriculture is not in a recession point to land values and cash rents as the main reasons.

“The U.S. crop sector is losing working capital, but cropland values are showing little weakness, either in terms of rents paid or cropland prices. Until the latter two start to weaken, the sector is not in a recession,” said one economist. “I understand government payments from crop insurance, commodity programs and ad hoc assistance are a key reason, but government payments have been a constant presence over the last 10 years. They are a second source of income. You cannot simply ignore them in answering this question, especially given the changes made in the 2025 farm bill.”

Consolidation Concerns Continue

As more farmers face financial collapse , 92% of economists think the situation will accelerate consolidation.

“We are currently in a sustained period of high costs and low prices across the crop sector — this will cause some farmers to go out of business sooner than expected.”
“Hard times drive us toward higher efficiencies, which often leads to consolidation.”
“Larger producers are likely to have more wherewithal to sustain losses than smaller producers.”
“The most efficient and well-capitalized producers will survive and absorb land from the least efficient producers.”

2026 Could Be Another Year of Negative Returns

46% of ag economists say the economy situation is “somewhat worse off” compared to last month and 27% say it’s “much worse off” compared to last year.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

Nearly half (46%) of ag economists say the ag economy is somewhat worse off in September compared with August, and 27% say it’s worse off versus 2024.

The outlook for next year is mixed. Fifty percent say it will be somewhat worse off or unchanged, while the other half expect the situation to slightly improve. Most economists expect continued financial stress into 2026, with projected losses of $100 to $199 per acre for corn and $100 to $199 per acre for soybeans.

Producers are Looking to Cut Costs

The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor asked what is the most likely cost-saving option for producers for the upcoming year.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

Farmers are postponing major equipment purchases, a trend that’s plagued the equipment industry the past two years. The latest Association of Equipment Manufacturers (AEM) report for August 2025 showed U.S. tractor sales fell 8.2% and combine sales dropped 34.6% compared with August 2024.

With the majority of economists forecasting the row crop side of agriculture to produce negative margins in 2026, farmers could be looking to cut back even more. Other than reducing machinery purchases, the majority of ag economists (85%) think farmers will slow technology upgrades. Fifteen percent say farmers will reduce fertilizer use. None of the economists surveyed think farmers will sell farmland.

The China Effect on the Ag Economy

Economists say the lack of export demand from China is having a negative impact on U.S. agriculture. In fact, 77% of economists surveyed say current U.S.-China trade policies are hurting farmers. Half of the respondents (54%) in the September survey think China will buy soybeans in 2025.

Even though China has bought zero new crop soybean cargoes from the U.S., more than half of economists still think China will come to the table in 2025.
(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )
“We have a demand problem — or more specifically we have a demand access problem,” said one economist.
“Record high cattle prices are helping to offset the challenging conditions for grain producers. Uncertainty related to China, trade policy and tariffs [is a major risk].”
“The long-term damage to our trade relations. It will take years to solve,” was another response.

Possible Economic Aid for Farmers

As China remains absent from buying U.S. soybeans , it’s having a negative impact on soybean prices. Areas that rely heavily on China’s business, such as the Northern Plains, are seeing cash soybean prices in the $8 range.

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins said Wednesday an economic aid package for farmers has been the focus of conversations at the White House. Some type of program and payments will be announced very soon, Rollins said, and while void of details, she promised such announcement will be made “in the next two weeks.”

President Donald Trump also made remarks in the Oval Office Thursday, saying he will use tariff revenue to bail out farmers.

“We’re going to take some of that tariff money that we made, we’re going to give it to our farmers, who are, for a little while, going to be hurt until the tariffs kick into their benefit,” Trump told reporters. “We’re going to make sure that our farmers are in great shape because we’re taking in a lot of money.”

62% of ag economists say direct payments like the Market Facilitation Program benefit crop producers.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

Considering the factors impacting farmers, such as trade policy, interest rates, commodity prices and input costs, 62% of ag economists said government direct payments benefit crop producers. Fifteen percent say such payments wouldn’t adequately address the challenges, while 23% think a different approach would be more effective.

Overlooked Issues in Agriculture

Ag lenders in some regions, such as the mid-South, warn farmers are experiencing the most financial stress since the 1980s . While the issues are at the forefront of conversations, the latest survey also asked economists to chime in on other agricultural issues currently being overlooked:

“The increasing percentage of farmland that is owned by absentee, non-operators … I’m seeing more investor activity, creating greater competition with actual operators.”
“Storage problems in the northwestern Midwest due to a lack of trains moving soybeans to the PNW.”
“The risk to the U.S. farm economy of weaker global economic growth … there is a broader set of macroeconomic uncertainties that affect world demand for agricultural products.”
Interest rate impact on asset values (not borrowing costs).
“Macroeconomic uncertainties that affect world demand for agricultural products, many of which have little or nothing to do with U.S. policies.”
“Tax rollover and the fact that even with significant losses, many taxes will become due this year.”
“The benefits of trade. I know it is talked about a lot, but it’s still not enough relative to how important it is.”

Navigate 2026 Input Costs with A Proactive Strategy

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 19:05:30 GMT

While Brent Judisch is in the midst of combining his 2025 corn and soybeans, he’s also thinking about how to plan for next year’s crops and inputs specifically.

“Fertilizer prices will kind of mirror your corn prices usually, but right now they’re going opposite directions. That’s not something we can handle going forward on the farm, with the costs going up and income going down,” says Judisch, who farms in Black Hawk County, Iowa.

Price Trends For N, P And K This Year

Mark Tully, senior manager, global market research for Nutrien, tells Farm Journal wholesale nitrogen (N) fertilizer prices are up between 25% and 45%, depending on the product.

The increases are due to unexpected global supply constraints in 2025. “This trend is being driven by conflict in Europe, Middle East, and trade restrictions from China, which have all impacted production and export availability,” Tully says.

Phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) have also trended up this year. Tully reports wholesale phosphate fertilizer prices are up between 20% and 40% depending on the product, while wholesale potash prices are up about 15% from 2024 levels.

National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) projections indicate fertilizer expenditures alone could account for 36% of a corn grower’s operating costs in 2025, with little to no relief expected for 2026.

“Looking ahead to next year, [input costs] look to be going a little higher,” predicts Krista Swanson, chief economist for the NCGA. She says inputs for corn have totaled about $900 an acre annually for the past four years.

Trusted Advisers Can Help With Input Decisions

As farmers grapple with input decisions, Ken Ferrie encourages farmers to lean on their agronomists and other trusted advisers to help think through the process of where to allocate resources while still maintaining targeted yield outcomes.

For example, at current input prices, Ferrie says a corn grower might save $85 an acre by managing nitrogen more efficiently ($35), varying population according to soil type ($20) and switching to a non-GMO hybrid ($30).

“But you have to do your homework before you make these kinds of decisions or yields could potentially fall off a cliff, leaving your balance sheet in worse shape than if you’d made no change,” he cautions.

Judisch is looking to address higher input costs next year by trimming rates where soil fertility levels will allow him to pull back.

“I think we’ll probably trim back our phosphate usage [for corn] a little bit, but we’ll still go forward with potash, and you’ve got to have nitrogen. You really can’t cut there,” Judisch says.

Evaluate Purchasing Options Early For The Best Terms

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX has been encouraging farmers planning to make fall anhydrous ammonia (NH3) applications to contact their suppliers now to lock in product.

While there is a good supply of NH3 in the pipeline currently, Linville is concerned the expected high demand could deplete its ready availability and lead to increased costs.

“I do think the prices will hold to push higher,” he says.

The best time for growers to contact suppliers to discuss 2026 availability and pricing of fertilizer, seed and other inputs is now, according to Jordan Howe, area manager for Nutrien Financial.

“Have an open conversation with your input providers, and explore options of early buying habits that could put you in a better position or help you capture a discount that maybe you haven’t in the past,” he says.

Howe encourages farmers to not shy away from asking questions of loan officers or financing institutions and read the fine print on any written agreement. Two key questions he recommends asking:

1. What is the price of the input if I want to pay for it in cash versus financing it?

2. If I opt to finance, what type of interest rate am I being offered – is it a fixed rate or a floating rate?

“I am seeing a lot ofunique financing opportunities out there where it might be a low, good rate early, but then it matures and turns into a much higher rate. You’ll want to consider whether you would be able to pay that off before it goes to the higher rate,” Howe says

He adds that being able to pay cash for some portion of your input needs can help you leverage your buying power to get the most competitive financing offers for the balance.

Don’t Forget To Consider Your Tax Implications

In the process of purchasing inputs for next season, keep in mind the potential taxes on products, recommends Jonathan LaPorte, Michigan State University farm business management educator.

“As you plan purchases, remember to maintain flexibility to maximize tax savings this year and next. Don’t overspend this year to save on inputs only to pay more income taxes next year,” he advises.

LaPorte offers an online Input Purchasing Plan Template in Word and Microsoft Excel to help farmers run different scenarios on input purchases based on their cropping plan for the year ahead. The template is available here .

Your next read: 26 Ideas To Cut Fertilizer Costs In 2026

Farm Equipment Buyer Hacks: 3 Insights From Fellow Farmers

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 14:07:44 GMT

Farmers are getting creative with their fleet management strategies and equipment purchasing behaviors in a world of tight farm economics. In addition, rising new and used equipment costs, the growing role of smart farming technology in purchase decisions and the dealer-farmer relationship come into play.

Here are three talking points to help keep your equipment fleet up to date in a down market from the farmers on stage at this year’s Moving Iron Summit , an annual Farm Journal event for used farm equipment dealers and auction companies.

Adopt a Second Buyer Approach
One effective strategy is shifting from a buy-new-at-all-costs mindset to a second buyer approach. Most combine harvesters remain operational for 15 to 18 years and have up to eight owners.

Illinois farmer Steve Pitstick and Iowa farmer Ben Riensche have found being the second buyer is the sweet spot for getting a good deal in the used market and still having a machine with modern precision ag technology. Riensche explains the mindset at play: When corn was trading at $6 a bushel, he says, it took 80,000 bu. to generate enough revenue to buy a nice used row crop tractor. Today, with $4 corn, that number has exploded to 140,000 bu. of corn to pay for the same used tractor.

“All those buyers are critical to that whole machine life,” Pitstick says. “I’ve chosen to be the second buyer. I come in at 300 hours, 400 hours and run it for a year. We flip machines every year with a 2-year-old or 1-year-old machine. Oftentimes it’s like a new machine to me because the first guy for some reason left the plastic on the seat.”

Keep a Backup for the Backup
The panel also agrees it pays to have a backup tractor or combine stashed in the machinery shed during spring planting and fall harvest, in case the tractor running the planter or the combine breaks down.

“We’ll keep our best old, used [machine] back in the back of the shed,” Riensche says. “If it gets used on that bluebird day when you really cut a lot of soybeans and it gets pulled out, or the day the front line combine goes down, we’ll pull it out because it obviously isn’t worth much on trade.”

Planter and Sprayer Tech Pays Off
When it comes to technology, Texas farmers Dale Allen and Todd Kimbrell, who both maintain relatively new equipment fleets, are seeing a return-on-investment when they take the time to figure out what works for their operations.

“First and foremost, for us it’s planters,” Kimbrell says. “Planter [tech] makes money in my part of the world, flat out. I can show you [data] all day long. It’s planter tech for us. Once we fixed our planters, our yields started going up. I’ll be honest, I don’t think we really knew how to plant until we put the technology on there.”

Allen is finding a lot of value in having his sprayers equipped with John Deere’s ExactApply application management system, which is available new from the factory and as an aftermarket retrofit kit on older machines. But John Deere’s hottest technology, it’s See & Spray smart spraying system, just doesn’t pencil out for his farm.

“There’s cost savings in being able to apply chemistry the way we need [it] applied,” Allen says. “What I’m trying to say is, not every technology fits on every farm. We got one shot to get it right, and we need to be sure.”

Your Next Read: Why Your Corn Crop Could Be Drying Slowly This Fall

Why Anhydrous Ammonia Demand Will Soar This Fall

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 20:36:10 GMT

If fall applications of anhydrous ammonia (NH3) are a go-to for your fertility program – or you expect them to be this year – consider calling your supplier asap to lock in product.

While application season is still some weeks away, waiting to buy NH3 could result in derailing your post-harvest nutrient game plan, according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer for StoneX.

Logistically, in order for you to have product ready to go, he says, application season is already here.

“We are kind of at zero hour. We’ve got to start making decisions on what we are and are not going to do,” Linville told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week.

While NH3 is not cheap – and no fertilizer is – it is well-priced relative to other nitrogen options including urea and UAN. Anhydrous ammonia is also readily available in the current pipeline.

For those reasons, Linville anticipates farmers who have the application equipment will put more anhydrous on their fields this fall. He says the potential downside to expected high demand could be a run on product, depleting availability in the marketplace and increasing costs.

“I do think the prices will hold to push higher,” he adds.

I’m sure I’ll stir trouble but so be it.
A bailout or whatever you call it is NOT what is needed!
Yes most of us will also have to take it to stay viable, which they know!
That’s the problem. Anhydrous was 750/ton a week ago and it’s 950 today! Corn took a $.30 drop in the… https://t.co/ShjR2qv3GH
— Cattleman🪓 (@cattleguy92) September 19, 2025

Tariffs Are Contributing To More Deals With Russia

For farmers who want to use UAN (Urea Ammonium Nitrate) for the 2026 crop, availability continues to be extremely tight.

Linville says the current situation is characterized by low starting inventories, potential import disruptions due to tariffs, and production challenges, all of which could make UAN availability continue to be a significant concern for farmers.

Veronica Nigh, senior economist for The Fertilizer Institute, says with the tariffs that have been imposed on various trade partners, the U.S. is purchasing more fertilizer – namely UAN and urea – from Russia.

“Because the U.S. does not have permanent, normal trade relations with Russia, at the moment, Russia is actually exempt from tariffs on fertilizer products coming into the U.S.,” Nigh explains in a recent podcast.

The amounts of UAN and urea coming in from Russia have increased significantly in the past year.

Nigh says the U.S. got 25% of its urea from Russia by the second quarter of 2024. By the same time in 2025, the Russian market share to the U.S. had grown to 51%.

Likewise, for UAN, Russia supplied 49% of the product to the U.S. by the second quarter of 2024. This year, the percentage coming into the U.S. from Russia reached 57% in the second quarter of 2025.

“Across all major macros, we’re seeing shifts also in exports as other countries are maybe changing who they want to do business with. Then, also, the shift in who is supplying the U.S. is becoming much more focused and concentrated on Russian supply away from those other supplying markets,” Nigh says.

Linville offers a blunter assessment, with regard to UAN supplies:

“I cannot say enough how tight UAN is this year, and it could be made worse if President Trump and our allies go forward with sanctions and duties and tariffs against Russia. That [would make] a very bad situation much, much worse,” he says.

Linville shares more details on his outlook for fertilizer availability and pricing on AgriTalk here:

Your next read: Shell-Shock Fertilizer Prices Leave Farmers, Politicians Asking What Can Be Done

Ferrie: Know the True Costs of Reducing Phosphorus Before You Cut It

Wed, 10 Sep 2025 11:20:16 GMT

In this week’s Boots In The Field podcast, Ken Ferrie addresses a concern he says has come to his attention several times during the past week. Specifically, a corn grower called his office at Crop-Tech Consulting and said he attended a farmer event where the speaker said because phosphorus prices are too high, he would not put any on fields for the next two years.

“He supposedly hasn’t applied any on his ground for the past two years and has seen no yield loss. Now, my first response is that this presenter is probably being taken out of context,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

When something is taken out of context and run through the local coffee shop talk, information can get off base quickly.

“But we’ve had 10 or 15 people calling the office with the same story, wondering about not putting any phosphorus (P) on fields for two years, so I feel I need to address this,” Ferrie says. “While I still believe the presenter’s being taken out of context, for the purpose of this discussion, let’s say he’s not.”

How Well Does Your Pickup Run Without Gas?
The speaker telling corn growers to not put phosphorus on for two years because he didn’t and had no yield reduction is concerning, Ferrie says. He offers a lighthearted scenario to provide some perspective.

“Imagine you come to one of our winter seminars and I say, ‘Boys, gas prices are too high. I recommend when you go home that you don’t put any gas in your pickup truck. I’ve come to work for two days in a row without putting gas in my truck, and I’ve made it home fine.’ Now for the 90% of you that came to the meeting with a full tank, this advice would work for you. But for the 10% who came in here on a nearly empty tank with the idiot light telling you you’re about to run out of fuel, it might not work so well.

“When the tow truck driver comes to rescue you because you ran out of gas on the way home and he asks, ‘How did you run out of gas? Doesn’t your gas gauge work?’ And you say, ‘Yes, it does, but my agronomist said I shouldn’t fill up with gas that I’d be all right,’ the tow truck driver is going to be shaking his head and wondering about your intelligence level.”

The same is true for arbitrarily deciding to not use inputs like phosphorus for the next two years. Ferrie says growers need to reference their farming gas gauge – their soil test – to determine whether they have adequate fuel to grow the next crop and whether they can cut back on inputs like Phosphorus.

Potential ROI From P Use – The Heart Of The Matter
Here are three examples of available P levels in the field and potential returns-on-investment (ROI) from making an application, based on a Bray 1 soil test:

With a P level in the 20- to 25-parts per million range, you can expect about a 25% chance of a positive ROI to applying phosphorus.
When P values drop down to between 10- and 20-parts per million, you can expect a 55% to 60% chance of a positive ROI to applying phosphorus.
Below 10 parts per million, you have an 80% to 90% chance of a positive ROI to applying phosphorus.

“The top end of these ranges would be true when we have low phosphorus prices and high commodity prices, while the opposite end is true when we have low commodity prices and high phosphorus prices, as we do now,” Ferrie says.

He adds that if you’re growing corn or soybeans, you have to consider both the P removal rates as well as the crop uptake rates.

For a 250-bu. corn crop and a 75-bu. soybean crop, the removal rate is about 140 pounds of phosphorus or 300 pounds of DAP (diammonium phosphate).

“These are the amounts that we know left the field in truckloads of grain,” Ferrie says. “But we had to grow these plants to produce the grain, which are the uptake rates.”

The uptake for 250-bu. corn and 75-bu. soybean crops is about 430 pounds of DAP.

“If you only have enough fuel in the tank (phosphorus) to satisfy removal, yields are going to drop. If your gas gauge is on low end and the idiot light is on and you don’t apply P to these fields, yields will drop,” he says. “But if the whole field is not spread with phosphorus, you might not know the yields drop in areas of it, because P issues are not as visible as nitrogen and sulfur deficiencies.”

It takes about 18 pounds of P₂O₅ to move your “gas gauge” 1 part per million. Not applying for two years could drop your gas gauge by 7 to 8 parts per million.

Now, if you started the season with a soil test showing 30 parts per million, that’s most likely not going to result in a yield reduction. But if you start the growing season with a soil test showing 15 parts per million in the field, you’ve dug yourself into a hole.

Get Ferrie’s full explanation on how to evaluate P use in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast:

P Rates Required To Get Fields Back On Track

To get your “gas gauge” from 7 parts per million back up to 25 parts per million, you’ll need to apply removal rates plus the build rates over multiple years.

“That would take about 150 pounds of DAP per year for removal and another 120 pounds of DAP for build, so 270 pounds of DAP per year for the next six years,” Ferrie estimates.

Many growers do have enough “gas in the tank” that they can pull back on some of their phosphorus. In some cases, complete fields can be pulled back. In other cases, certain zones can be pulled back, but be sure to know what is in your tank in each field.

“Taking a hit in yield because we didn’t look at a working gas gauge is not something you want to be guilty of,” he says. “And guys, we’ll navigate through these tough times. Don’t let emotions, coffee shop talk or some speaker taken out of context, derail your program. Use your tools. Stay the course. Make your plan, follow the plan, and remember your agronomist is just a phone call away.”

Your next read: 7 Tips To Make Your Phosphorus Work For You

How Much Does It Cost to Run a High Horsepower Tractor?

Mon, 08 Sep 2025 12:20:49 GMT

Have you ever driven past a large tractor pulling a tillage tool and kicking up dust in a farm field and thought to yourself ‘I wonder how much money it’s costing that farmer in the driver’s seat to run that thing?’

If so, you might be a fellow machinery geek, and you also might want to check out The University of Illinois’ Farm Business Management “Machinery Costs Estimate: Tractors” report.

The study, published on Sept. 1, found that a high-horsepower, brand-new row crop tractor that puts out 640 hp costs a staggering $350 per engine hour in 2025.

At 590 hp, the same tractor would cost about $327 per engine hour. To get your hourly tractor spend down to a more reasonable level, under the $200 mark, you would have to trade down to a 240 hp tractor or lower, according to the data.

With its release at Farm Progress Show last week in Decatur, Ill., still fresh on the mind, it’s hard not to wonder how much it costs to run that new Case-IH Steiger 785 Quadtrac with 853 hp under the hood?

And then if you’re hauling a 12-row planter full of freshly treated, expensive traited seed as well, how much does that hourly rate go up?

The study considers several factors such as machine list price, labor and fuel costs, and “overhead” which includes asset depreciation, insurance, housing costs, interest and repair costs.

While the $350-per-hour figure sounds astronomical, it also makes sense, too. Literally everything seems like it costs more money these days — eggs , car insurance, a standard one-bedroom apartment in town — so why wouldn’t it cost more to run that shiny new tractor too?

It’s important we also keep in mind these figures from the University of Illinois are only estimated costs. The actual costs of running your farm equipment will depend on several factors that differ across the various ag production regions. The University of Illinois says the figures are “useful for determining machinery costs on farms, rental rates for machinery and custom rates for machinery operations.”

The report was prepared by Dale Lattz and Gary Schnitkey, department of agricultural and consumer economics, University of Illinois.

Head over to farmdoc.illinois.edu to check out the data for yourself

High Yields, Poor Profits: Corn Farmers Search for New Demand to Drive Prices

Thu, 14 Aug 2025 15:19:58 GMT

USDA’s record 16.7 billion bushel corn crop estimate in the August WASDE is raising concern among farmers and farm groups — including the National Corn Growers Association.

They’re questioning the accuracy of USDA’s yield and acreage projections and asking for demand solutions to blunt the threat to the livelihood of farmers already facing record-low prices.

Corn Acreage a Double Whammy
Corn profitability was already in the red before the August WASDE.

But the record 16.7 billion bushel corn crop and 2 million additional acres just added insult to injury for Tom Haag, who farms near Eden Valley, Minn.

“When they first had their intentions earlier in June, I thought we were pretty close to where we were. I don’t know where they come up with these extra acres or where they found them,” Haag says.

Illinois and Iowa acreage was unchanged, but between the June Acreage Report and August Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage, states including Kansas, North and South Dakota had 1.2 million more acres.

Some could be silage, but these are fringe states.

Krista Swanson, chief economist with NCGA, says even with record yields, those states can’t lift the national yield average.

“The higher acres are, the less likely we have an extremely high yield because of those fringe acres. I think that certainly comes into play, as maybe challenging ‘Can a yield of this level be hit?’”

Validity in Question
The yield methodology for the August report is also in question since it doesn’t use field data.

Swanson says, “So, what happens when we start to getting into harvest is left to be seen. You could analyze, ‘Well, if a state like Iowa has exceedingly high yields, then you wouldn’t necessarily need that record’. But you come out around 190 if every state achieves their maximum yield of the past five years.”

And the record yield projected for the No. 2 corn producer, Illinois, is debatable with crop ratings at only 63% good-to-excellent — well below last year.

Kent Beadle, Paradigm Futures, says that’s well below last year’s rating, and it has dropped 8% in the last few weeks.

“Right now, the good-to-excellent rating is suggesting an average Illinois crop, and of course USDA gave it a record at 221,” Beadle says.

USDA Lowers Average Corn Price
Swanson says as a result of the record supply, USDA lowered the national average corn price.

“USDA also reduced its projected market year average price for the 2025 crop from $4.20 down to $3.90. That would be the lowest market year average we’ve had since 2019.”

But cash prices are much lower in the country — pushing profitability further in the red for farmers like Haag.

Dec. Corn Profitability

(USDA)

Losing Money at This Price
“Our break-even at the farm is right around $4.25, and cash corn to where we haul today is $3.59,” Haag explains.

And with USDA’s cost of production on corn at $897 an acre, he isn’t the only farmer below break even.

Beadle says, “You know, at the 181-bushel level, we were going to need $4.95 on average for the average farmer to break even. If you add this 7.8 bushels an acre, you still need $4.75 to break even.”

Call to Action on Demand
The bleak outlook has NCGA issuing a call to action from Congress and the Trump administration, including year-round E15 — which could use an estimated 457 million bushels of corn.

“If we could get E15 — and also California to use E15 — that would burn up a lot more bushels,” Haag says. “A lot of states don’t have the infrastructure to burn E15, as their pumps are not set up. We need some adjustments there also from EPA to allow E15 to be used in your normal conditions like unleaded 87 is.”

Swanson says they’re also looking for demand in the export market.

"[We’re] also stressing the importance of continuing to work on some of these new trade frameworks and build international market access as well.”

Unfortunately, if help comes, it may not be in time to stop the bleeding at harvest time.

Corn Growers Alarmed Key Herbicides Face Uncertain Future

Fri, 01 Aug 2025 20:41:29 GMT

Blake Hurst considers glyphosate to be one of the most valuable crop production tools available in his farming toolbox.

The northwest Missouri farmer expressed concerns, during a media briefing hosted by Modern Ag Alliance, that the popular weed-control product would be targeted by the Make America Healthy Again report.

Hurst was right to be concerned.

Three technologies – glyphosate, atrazine and chloripyrifos – were called out in the Report, albeit via comments buried on page 35 of the 68-page document. The Report referenced the three weed-control chemistries as part of its list of products that can contribute to chronic disease in children.

In response to the Report, the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) said it has spent the ensuing months “sounding the alarms about the MAHA Commission’s focus on herbicides.”

The association sponsored a farmer survey between June 17 and July 2 to assess farmer sentiment about glyphosate and atrazine, specifically.

The two products are used extensively in U.S. corn production to address various grass and broadleaf weeds. Industry estimates are that atrazine is used on about 60% of U.S. corn acres, while glyphosate is applied on nearly all herbicide-treated corn acres – 90.4% in total, according to the National Corn Growers Association .

Farmers and  more than 300 agriculture organizations  have engaged with the MAHA Commission in recent months to share concerns.

Corn Growers Surveyed Say Weeds Are Their Top Pest
Respondents indicated overwhelmingly – 85% – that weeds are the top pest plaguing their crops and that atrazine and glyphosate were their top two herbicides of choice.

(NCGA)

Survey responses were gathered from more than 1,000 farmers nationwide and a summary of the findings was released this week.

“American corn growers say they would face higher costs and reductions in crop yields if they were to lose access to key herbicides like atrazine and glyphosate,” the NCGA reported in a press release.

NCGA said its findings show that if the pesticides in the initial assessment were to disappear completely, crop yields could decrease by more than 70% due to pests, weeds and disease.

“These results are in line with what I am hearing in conversations among farmers,” said Illinois farmer and NCGA President Kenneth Hartman Jr., in a prepared statement. “We are concerned that claims about herbicides in the pending MAHA recommendations could remove access to the tools we need to safely and sustainably produce a crop.”

Farmers Want The Commission To Hear Their Concerns
NCGA said the survey findings reveal high stakes for the MAHA Commission’s next report, a set of policy recommendations expected to be released sometime yet this month, as early as August 12.

The NCGA said the crop protection tools in question have been thoroughly tested by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and other regulatory bodies and shown to be safe for their intended uses.

“Given that the EPA’s robust regulatory process has found these products to be safe when used according to label directions, there is no reason to suggest that they are harmful,” Hartman noted. “Doing so will come at a great cost to farmers and rural America.”

Blake Hurst said that outcome would be likely for his Missouri operation.

“As a corn and soybean farmer, I use [glyphosate] to control weeds, keep my yields up and my costs down,” Hurst said. “It’s reliable, affordable and effective. Without it, I’d be stuck using alternatives that don’t work as well and might not be as safe.”

Learn More about the Survey Here .

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How To Navigate Foliar Fungicide Use in a Tight Soybean Market

Tue, 01 Jul 2025 18:43:53 GMT

Farmers looking to decide when to apply a soybean foliar fungicide can get their biggest ROI from the application by determining the crop’s growth stage, says Matt Duesterhaus, Crop-Tech Consulting research agronomist in Illinois.

A growth stage begins when 50% or more of the soybean plants are in or beyond a specific point of development, according to Iowa State University Extension.

But before you decide when to apply fungicides, university Extension says to evaluate product and application costs, which can run as high as $30 to $40 per acre. Penn State Extension says the realized yield response needed to cover costs may not justify the need for a foliar fungicide, if the risk of disease is not there.

Farmdocdaily, based at the University of Illinois, provides some potential scenarios for soybean growers (and corn growers, too) to evaluate based on yield and prices:

Farmdocdaily adds that while you can figure out the cost of applying foliar fungicides, consider that their application introduces two uncertainties – particularly important to know in a low-price year:

1) the yield response from using fungicides, and

2) the additional drying cost associated with higher moisture due to fungicide use. To learn more, check out the Farmdocdaily article Fungicides Use in a Lower Price Environment.

When Soybeans Make Big Yield Moves

Back to application timing, Duesterhaus says from R2 to R4 is when most farmers are staging soybeans for fungicide applications (as well as insecticide and foliar fertilizer). This period of development typically occurs in later July in the Midwest.

During these growth stages, you start to see some of the biggest yield moves in soybeans – both up and down.

“These pod development stages are about finalizing the potential for soybean yields,” Duesterhaus says. “From R2 to R4, we need to do everything we can to protect the beans so they can hang onto those flowers as pods. Then, in August, we see how we can fulfill the potential out there.”

A Different Recommendation For White Mold

If you have an issue with white mold in soybeans, Mike Staton, Michigan State University Extension , says to evaluate your crop and be ready to apply a foliar fungicide at R1 (one open flower per plant on 50% of the plants).

Staton adds that a second fungicide application made approximately 10 days after the first application may improve white mold control if the weather is predicted to remain cool and wet or humid.

Sporecaster , a relatively new phone app from University of Wisconsin, was created to suggest if a fungicide should be applied for white mold.

The Crop Protection Network has also released its 2025 Soybean Foliar Fungicide Efficacy ratings to help farmers make product selections for all disease issues in soybeans.

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