Cotton

Grains Slide Further After China Summit: Is the Long Term Uptrend Still Intact?

Fri, 15 May 2026 21:25:56 GMT

Grain and cotton markets continued lower on Friday with cattle higher.

Grains and Cotton Slide Further After China Summit
Grain and cotton markets saw follow through selling and fund liquidation for a second day.

Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says the market was removing China premium after the disappointing summit as the market wanted more details on ag purchases.

“I just think the concept here was that most people believed, including myself to some extent, that we were going to have some tangible,
concrete evidence of increased purchases of other ag products whether it’s corn, whether it’s cotton and such forth. We just felt that for him to go out there and come back empty-handed was not a likely scenario and he came back the way it looks pretty empty-handed without anything
tangible anything concrete,” he explains.

Market Wants Proof
Despite USTR Jamieson Greer stating that China would commit to double digit billions of dollars of agricultural goods for the next three years the market discounted it.

Hackett says the market now wants proof of sales.

“It needs proof. It needs to know how much of which markets. When are those purchases going to start in earnest? Is it going to be a quarterly thing? Is it going to be just an annual thing? Can they do it whenever they want? So much of that has to do with what’s the appropriate pricing
discovery mechanism for today based upon the nature of these purchases.”

He points out that during the Phase One there were exact quantities.

“And that gave the market clarity on how to handle the supply demand equation in each of those markets. We’re left guessing and guessing isn’t going to bring confidence into our markets to bid them up from where they were prior to this meeting.”

How Much China Premium Left to Remove?
So the markets have been extracting China premium, especially cotton and soybeans and there was way more premium than people even thought.

Many observers thought the recent run up in grain and cotton markets was tied to weather and war or geopolitical premium, not trade premium.

“And given the way things. have played out the last couple of days it’s becoming clear that a lot of that late rally we saw leading into this meeting was more about the trade premium than anything else and I think the market got surprised in misdiagnosing what the premium was coming from and hence you know the big knockdown and the big surprise,” he says.

How Much Lower Will Grain Prices Fall?
So how much more fund selling will those market see and how low could grain prices fall?

He says, “Maybe we have another day or two, but I think most of the heavy selling is behind us. I say that because it’s so early in the growing season. I think the market, in order to get the funds to liquidate more, will want to see that we’re going to have a good growing season.”

Funds Stay Long Through Early Growing Season
He says it’s still too early for the speculator to give up on their long positions and the weather.

“In fact just if you look at cotton today it was kind of hard down lock limit through most of the day but then did come off limit here as we approach the end of trading and so that says to me that we might have gotten most of those short-term aggressive traders out of the market and we might at least stabilize next week,” he adds.

Chart Damage
Still cotton, soybean oil, corn and soybeans posted lower weekly closes and reversed from new highs early in the week and scored reversals.

So, how much technical damage was done?

“It’s a strong reversal but if you look at the up trends that we that began at the beginning of the year we’re still holding those up trends even after today but barely meaning we’re at a point where if we’re going to maintain any technical. credibility, we need to dig our heels in here and at least abide by the upward trend line,” he explains.

So it was a warning sign but he thinks as long as the uptrends hold it will prevent any additional technical selling.

Iran War Not Over
Plus, he says the Iran war is not over and energy prices are still going up, even though the grain futures ignored it on Friday.

“There’s too many uncertainties that’s going to want to keep the speculators holding some ground here,” he states.

That inflationary concerns are not going to go away. So at some point is that going to come back to be supportive for grains and cotton?

Hackett says, “Absolutely. I don’t see that this Iran situation, anything has really changed. The fertilizer situation is definitely not changed. The further we get on into the year, the more this fertilizer situation, especially in places like India and Brazil, where they really don’t have to import so much of this fertilizer, are going to start to show themselves into needing higher prices to effectuate the outcomes that we need. And so that’s a good long-term supportive mechanism.”

Near Term Weather More Favorable
Near term weather is looking for favorable with some rains in dry areas of the Western Corn Belt and Southern Plains.

“Good rains in Texas, the deep South, the Southeast areas that haven’t had a drop of rain in months. No doubt that the weather in the next couple of weeks is going to be quite productive. Doesn’t mean it ends the drought scenario there, but it takes the pressure off. It allows some planting to accelerate where they haven’t been able to plant because it’s been too dry,” he says.

So that is not going to give the speculator any reason to want to add weather premium.

Has Wheat Topped?
The wheat market has already been removing weather premium he says and may have put in a spike top the day of the USDA report.

“It looks like it traded the worst news you could trade on the bad U.S. winter wheat crop,” he says.

The results of the Kansas Wheat Tour confirmed the 54 year low in the wheat crop USDA printed but that even failed to move the market so the worst news is priced in.

“They didn’t say it was good, but they said it was a little better than the USDA said. And remember, we are only the fifth largest producer in the world and we’re only the fifth largest exporter in the world. Russia, Ukraine looks great. They look like they could have a record wheat crop and others don’t look so bad either. So I think you have to say, how much premium can we add onto the market?”

Bullish Grains for 2027
So Hackett says he is still bullish for 2027 grain and cotton futures, especially with the weather set up.

“Our view is we have this significant El Nino weather pattern coming for the U.S., which means very good crops. But once we digest this crop, everything that I see going forward on weather, everything that I see on cost of production says to me that in 2027, we should be looking at prices considerably better than what we’ve just seen before this big break.”

Cattle Rally With Cash and Futures Discount
Cattle futures were higher on Friday with another week of record cash and continued tight supplies. So how long will that hold prices at these high levels?

Hackett says, “We don’t have the animals. And so unless, you know, somehow we’re able to import some higher quality beef. I mean, we’re bringing the lower quality side, but the higher quality we’re not. Unless the Mexican border opens up, or Brazilian tariffs are cut, it’s just hard to see how you could get a big break in this market.”

Plus, grilling season demand should continue to support.

He adds, “The cattle situation will take years to get ourselves out of this, not three to six months.”

China to Re-List U.S. Beef Plants
News also out on Friday afternoon that China is relisting 425 U.S. beef plants for export.

Hackett says the U.S. doesn’t have a whole lot of beef to export and prices may be too high for them to buy anyway.

“I would argue, do we really need to be importing beef to China? I mean, I’m sure every cattle producer wants the highest price he can possibly get, and I understand that. But at the same time, I mean, we’re dealing with a terrible prolonged structural shortage of very, very high beef prices. The president wanting and demanding that beef prices come down. It just seems to me like we’re at odds.”

Corteva Brands Seed And Genetics Business With New Name

Mon, 04 May 2026 21:34:00 GMT

Corteva announced on Monday that its advanced seed and genetics business, formerly operating under the placeholder “SpinCo,” will be branded as Vylor, Inc. The spin-off remains on track to become an independent company no later than the fourth quarter of 2026.

Corteva will continue to sell crop protection products – herbicides, fungicides, insecticides and biologicals.

For farmers who have spent decades planting Pioneer, Brevant and Hogemeyer branded seed products, the changes mark a massive consolidation of research and development power. Vylor will launch with a significant intellectual property portfolio, including more than 4,000 germplasm patents and 2,000 biotechnology patents, according to a Corteva press release.

Heritage Meets High-Tech

The branding is a deliberate nod to the past and the future of the American farm. The name “Vylor” is derived from valor, a tribute to the grit of U.S. farmers and workers who have helped “feed the world.”

Even the new logo carries a hidden meaning: the stylized “l” represents the shape of a single chromosome—the building block of the company’s genetics-first mission.

The company’s visual identity also honors its roots, using a color palette of green, maroon, and blue to pay homage to the Pioneer, Brevant, Hogemeyer and Corteva legacies.

A New Pipeline for the Field

Vylor isn’t just rebranding existing products, according to future Vylor CEO Chuck Magro. He says it is positioning itself to lead the next generation of “gamechanger” technologies. According to the announcement, farmers can expect a pipeline focused on:

Proprietary Hybrid Wheat: A long-sought breakthrough in wheat productivity.
Gene Editing Leadership: Faster development of traits to combat evolving pests and weather patterns.
Multi-Disease Resistance Corn: Reducing the reliance on over-the-top pesticide applications.
Next-Generation Biofuels: Expanding the profit potential of row crops beyond the food supply chain.

“Vylor traces its roots back a century, to a single idea: that innovation could transform agriculture,” Magro notes. “From food security to energy security... Vylor will be uniquely positioned to help solve some of the world’s toughest challenges.”

Global Footprint

Vylor enters the market from a position of dominance, boasting the largest seed production network in the world, Corteva reports. The brands under its umbrella already hold No. 1 and No. 2 market share positions in nearly every global region they serve, backed by a history of world-record yields in corn and soybeans.

While the corporate structure is changing, Corteva says Vylor’s “north star” remains the same: leveraging scientific expertise to help farmers feed and fuel a growing population. As the separation nears its 2026 finish line, Vylor signals an aggressive intent to “vye” for new opportunities in row crops and beyond.

Watch this video to learn more about Vylor.

EPA Opens Public Comment Period On Draft Fungicide Strategy

Mon, 04 May 2026 16:19:42 GMT

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is offering the U.S. public an opportunity to help shape the future of agricultural safety, unveiling a draft Fungicide Strategy designed to balance the needs of American farmers with the protection of the nation’s most vulnerable wildlife.

The proposal marks a significant step in the agency’s effort to meet its dual mandates under the Endangered Species Act (ESA) and the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide, and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA). By creating a more efficient and transparent framework for pesticide registration, the EPA says it aims to “safeguard more than 1,000 federally endangered and threatened species” while ensuring growers maintain the tools necessary to protect the nation’s food supply.

A New Framework for Modern Farming

The draft strategy focuses on conventional agricultural fungicides across the lower 48 states — an area covering approximately 41 million treated acres annually. Rather than a one-size-fits-all mandate, the proposal introduces a three-step framework:

Identify Impacts: Assessing potential population-level effects on listed species.
Mitigation Planning: Pinpointing specific measures to reduce those risks.
Targeted Application: Determining exactly where these protections are most needed based on where endangered and threatened species live and how fungicides move through the environment.

The agency emphasizes that while this strategy guides future regulatory actions, it does not impose immediate requirements. Instead, the strategy serves as a roadmap for upcoming registration reviews, with the EPA promising public input on every specific action before it is finalized.

Balancing Innovation and Conservation

Saying that it recognizes farmers are the backbone of the U.S. economy, the EPA’s draft includes several updates to provide greater flexibility. Notably, the plan expands options for reducing spray drift buffer distances and introduces new mitigation tools, such as the use of “guar gum” as a spray adjuvant.

"[American farmers] need a diverse toolbox of innovative agricultural technologies to manage crop disease, prevent resistance, and produce the affordable, nutritious food that feeds our country,” the EPA says, in a press release. “The draft Fungicide Strategy is designed to ensure those innovative tools remain available and that they are used in ways that protect the environment and endangered species.

How to Get Involved

In a push for transparency, the EPA has opened a 60-day public comment period to gather feedback from scientists, conservationists, Tribal partners and the agricultural community.

Public Comment: Stakeholders can review the strategy and submit formal feedback via (Docket: EPA-HQ-OPP-2026-2973) through June 29, 2026.
Informational Webinar: The agency will host a public webinar on May 20, 2026, at 2 p.m. ET to walk through the proposal and answer questions. Register here .

The EPA expects to review all public input and finalize the Fungicide Strategy by November 2026.

Corteva Unveils Executive Team Lineup For Its Two-Way Company Split

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 14:58:00 GMT

Corteva Inc. has reached a pivotal milestone in its corporate restructuring, announcing the executive leadership teams that will guide its transition into two independent, publicly traded entities.

The separation, which will result in the formation of New Corteva and SpinCo, is expected to be finalized in the fourth quarter of 2026.

New Corteva: A Focus on Crop Protection

Luther “Luke” Kissam has been appointed as the future chief executive officer of New Corteva, the entity that will retain the company’s crop protection portfolio. Kissam is scheduled to join the firm on June 1 as CEO.

Corteva’s Greg Page says the company board of directors selected Kissam following a global search, citing his ability to drive growth through innovation. Page notes that Kissam’s history of leading public companies and delivering market-focused solutions will benefit farmers and shareholders alike, according to a company press release.

Kissam brings a background in both agriculture and specialty chemicals to the new role. He previously served as the chairman and CEO of Albemarle Corporation and held legal and executive positions at Monsanto and Merisant Company.

Joining Kissam at New Corteva in key leadership roles will be:

Jeff Rudolph, chief financial officer
Brook Cunningham, chief commercial officer
Ralph Ford, chief integrated operations officer
Reza Rasoulpour, chief technology officer
Jim Alcombright, chief digital and information officer

SpinCo: Advancing Seed and Genetics

The second entity, provisionally named SpinCo, will operate as a standalone seed and genetics company. This business will focus on elite germplasm and cutting-edge biotechnologies, including gene editing and molecular breeding for row crops.

Current Corteva CEO Chuck Magro will transition to the role of SpinCo CEO at the time of formal separation. Magro says SpinCo’s success will be built on technological investments that allow farmers to increase yields in row crops and potentially new markets.

Along with Magro, the leadership team for SpinCo will include:

David Johnson, chief financial officer
Judd O’Connor, chief commercial and operations officer
Sam Eathington, chief technology officer
Audrey Grimm, chief people officer
Brian Lutz, chief digital and information officer
Jennifer Johnson, chief legal officer

When Will Grains Become Numb to War Headlines? Have Cattle Already Done That?

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 20:29:03 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended lower on Thursday with cotton, wheat and cattle higher.

Corn and Soybeans Fade Despite Skyrocketing Crude Oil
Corn and soybeans ended lower Thursday fading early strength tied to skyrocketing crude oil prices after President Trump addressed the nation and said the war in Iran would continue and could escalate if Iran doesn’t reach a deal.

Corn and soybeans ran into chart resistance and were also capped by the strong dollar but Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says those markets are also experiencing war fatigue and are tired of chasing every headline.

“I also think when you think about renewable diesel, the EPA, the new rules that the EPA put out, we’re not going to alter that too much depending on what crude is doing. So, when i really look at soybeans and corn I don’t really think there’s as much an energy component as
the market has kind of been worried about. In terms of fertilizer we know soybeans don’t really worry too much about fertilizer prices and corn, unless the weather for planting is not great, I don’t really think producers are going to change their intentions too much.”

So he thinks the market will soon move beyond geopolitics and back to weather.

Markets Setting a New Norm
The crude oil market as well as the grain markets are setting a new norm says Hackett. So, what is that norm?

“If we assume that we’re not just going to leave Iran and everything’s going to go back to the way it was, I mean, I don’t think anyone really believes we’re going back to the way it was. And I think what’s likely going to be that we’re going to keep a ongoing long-term geopolitical premium in the crude oil market and even in the international LNG market and in the fertilizer prices. My feeling is $75 is your low end during good times in the market’s perception. And I think $110 is the high side. I think that’s your new normal in terms of where the market can kind of bounce back and forth depending on how it feels about things.”

He thinks that is positive for higher soybean and corn prices depending on how long the war lasts and the outcome and its impact on energy markets.

“Who’s running the Strait of Hormuz? How much gets through? Who’s policing the Strait of Hormuz? How much of the infrastructure that was damaged, supposedly, how long will it actually take to bring that back on to the marketplace? Is it six months? Is it three months? Is it a year? These are all unanswered questions that we’re going to need clarity on once we feel we’re at a point where this situation has stabilized and we can make these determinations.”

When Will Grains Divorce From the Headlines?
Hackett thinks the grain markets are getting close and will soon turn towards weather for direction.

“I think we’re going to start to move away from it. We’re going to get into the planting season. We’re going to watch planting progress. We’re going to watch how things are progressing.”

He is keeping an eye on the weather and a strong El Nino pattern for the growing season.

“Generally speaking, historically, since 1950, El Ninos have always produced trend line to above trend line yields. The market is going to start to have to factor in the fact that we are probably going to have very good corn and soybean and spring wheat crops and factor that in to the equation of what the market needs to do from current prices. It’s going to be very, very hard for grain markets to take out and move substantially higher if we don’t have weather problems to worry about during the U.S. growing season.”

Will That Uncertainty Keep Funds Defending Their Long Position?
The funds have added to their long position in corn and soybeans and so with the uncertainty about weather, does that keep the funds defending those longs?

Hackett says they are going to defend the longs until they are sure how weather is going to turn out but once El Nino develops and the weather pattern changes they will head for the door.

“I think they’re going to quickly head for the exits as they typically do if weather’s good heading into August, where we’ve historically continue to make harvest lows repeatedly over the last five to seven years.”

Money Flow
So some of buying in the grains has been on money flow out of equities into grains, which are undervalued. So is that move just about done?

Hackett says, “I mean, there’s been a lot of new reaction of buying agriculture because of high fertilizer prices, the long term impact that that has on production, which in fact does if it remains the longer haul. But I do believe we’re not going to see much more of a rotation into
the ag group without getting Mother Nature involved. You can only do this for so long. You can only attract so much capital flows. And then you actually need to see the supplies actually get tight.”

He says that only happens if the U.S. has a poor growing season, which is unlikely.

Wheat Holding Weather Premium?
The wheat market was slightly higher on Friday but lower for the week. There were some rains in HRW areas but coverage wasn’t broad. So is the market trying to hold some weather premium?

“Yeah, some of the western parts of Kansas and the western parts of Oklahoma and the western parts of Nebraska did not catch those rains. It’s still a big swath of the KC winter wheat belt that needs the rains.”

He’s more worried about the likelihood for a flash frost coming in late April, early May.

“A lot of our work says we could be worried about kind of a cold snap that could come in at the wrong time. That might be the weather anomaly to pay more attention to than the dry weather.”

Some of this rally, though, in wheat has been technical and adding some overseas geopolitical premium.

Cotton in Uptrend
The cotton market was higher on Thursday and for the week and is in a clear uptrend. Hackett says the market has been getting help from higher crude oil prices and historically low planted acres for a second year.

“When we look at the blends that most clothes that you buy at the store, the blends are mostly polyester, which is petroleum based and cotton fiber. When polyester is economical, they increase the use of those polyester fibers, reducing the cotton fibers. Right now, the price of cotton relative to the price of polyester is near historic lows, meaning. There is every incentive to increase the blends of cotton and reduce the blends of polyester. And in order to get ourselves into a more normal relationship, Michelle, we’d have to get ourselves into the, let’s say, low to mid 80 cent range on December cotton.”

So he thinks there’s more upside to be had in the market. He also doesn’t buy into the 9.64 million acre planting intentions figure from USDA.

“All our independent work, all the customers we work with in the cotton area, all the economics, we look at it from comparative crops, the fertilizer situation, the cost of equipment, all of it says that we are not going to plant one acre more than we did last year. And we’re sticking to the idea that come June, when we get the June planting report, we’re going to see those numbers come down and be more in line with what we
saw last year.”

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs Chasing Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Thursday with new contract highs in the deferred live cattle futures cashing cash trade.

A light trade was reported in most areas Thursday afternoon, with Southern live deals at $245 to $246, $8 to $9 higher than last week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed business is marked at $380 to mostly $385, $13 higher than last week’s weighted averages.

Hackett says continued tight supplies are also driving the market. Some herd rebuilding is starting which is further tightening available cattle numbers and that is being priced into the live cattle.

He thinks the market can continue higher with strong demand as long as higher energy prices don’t push the economy into recession.

“Which we don’t think would happen as long as we stay at $110 a barrel or less.”

The market was also impressive as it shook off the lower equity markets and unless the stock market corrects by 20% he thinks the cattle market will stay intact.

USDA Faces Record-Low Acreage Survey Response as NASS Seeks to Rebuild Trust with Farmers

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 17:48:45 GMT

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report Tuesday, and with no major surprises, the story this year may not just what farmers plan to plant, but how few farmers actually responded. Only 37.6% of producers participated, marking the lowest response rate in the survey’s history.

(Source: USDA)

For NASS , the implications go beyond a number. According to Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, the low participation highlights a growing trust gap between farmers and the agency.

“We’ve got a bit of a trust issue out there,” Honig tells U.S. Farm Report. “That’s what I read on social media. That’s what I read in various farmer comments. That’s an issue right now… something we’ve got to work on rebuilding. We’re open to hearing what we can do to help rebuild that. We had a session at the Outlook Forum to talk about it. We’ve got the data user meeting coming up in just a few weeks on April 22nd. And we’ve got a request for information out there. We are seeking input from our users and our customers to tell us what we can do better, what we can do to help reestablish that trust. That’ll hopefully get farmers willing to respond to these surveys again.”

NASS @usda_nass is a small group of statisticians. They're good people. They have a tough job. Big Ag is much more nefarious. I think lots of people have it backwards. https://t.co/14ZOQW4m6m
— Joe Vaclavik (@StandardGrain) April 1, 2026

Even before the results were released this week, Honig told Farm Journal farmer participation is more important than ever, but he was concerned fewer farmers may participate, especially if they’re frustrated .

Honig emphasizes that rebuilding trust is critical because accurate data ensures farmers have a level playing field in agricultural markets.

“What we’re doing is to benefit everyone in agriculture, specifically the farmers, because we’re out here level in the playing field,” he says. “If we don’t produce accurate numbers, there are large companies out there that are going to be in a much better position to know what’s going on. We don’t want farmers to be at a disadvantage. But in order to keep that working smoothly, we do also need the cooperation of the farmers. We need to work together. We want to work together. And anything I can do to help make that better, I’d love to hear it because I’d love to do it.”

Regional Patterns, Response Challenges

Even with a low response rate for this report, Honig says response rates vary across the country each year, with certain regions consistently harder to reach. Honig noted that the Plains states—from Kansas up through the Dakotas—pose ongoing challenges.

“Response typically varies across the country,” he said. “Some of the toughest areas to get cooperation are through the Plains states… this time was no exception. But when you know where you’ve got these regional dips, we make some adjustments with our sampling in those areas. We didn’t see any change in the pattern of where response is higher and lower this time.”

Seth Meyer, who was the chief economist for USDA for the past five years, before returning to the University of Missouri as the director of FAPRI earlier this year, points out this is simply what farmers intend to plant, and these numbers will likely change.

“This is like watching the beginning of a negotiation. And so this is a really a survey based upon farmers’ response of what they might do, what they’re thinking about doing,” says Meyer. “And you’re kind of watching the bid process with the market, but you’re only seeing the farmers offer. Now you got to see the market go back and forth a bit.”

Timing of Responses Could Be Key

In an effort to increase transparency, NASS released daily response rates for the first time, giving analysts and farmers insight into when the data came in, which is key this year due to the ongoing conflict in Iran.

“Well, really two reasons. One is we try to really double down on transparency and rebuilding relationships out there, making it as clear about what these data represent as possible. We felt that was a key piece of information that we could share. So you can see within that two-and-a-half-week window when the data came in, what farmers were thinking when they reported—it’s really critical for this report. Specifically, there have been some events during that period that really had a big impact on what farmers might be thinking. Fertilizer prices spiked and things of that nature. We just wanted folks to be able to look at the data and see for themselves: what do you think the data really mean, knowing that this is when farmers actually told us what their intentions were?”

(USDA)

Meyer says by NASS reporting the share of farmer responses they received by day, from February 27 to March 15, it could help shine light on the share of responses that were submitted before the war started.

“And you know why [Lance] did it this year? Because we had the war with Iran beginning towards the end February and then continuing on. And so I think what happened is there’s something that initially folks might have thought was going to be a short action continues until today,” says Meyer. “So I think it was important for him to know where we were at, how many responses he’s getting because we saw fertilizer prices climb immediately, but then stay high as time went on. I think it was a critical piece of information for NASS, to say this is the response farmers were giving us and putting that in context of high oil and high fertilizer

Noticed this one, good context for this year, what was the response rate? https://t.co/f7YSGyezxG
— Seth Meyer (@SethMeyerMU) March 31, 2026

Market analysts say global events and regional fertilizer access likely influenced farmer responses to the Prospective Plantings survey. Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain agrees that timing could have played a role in this survey, but it’s hard to put an exact percentage on how many acres could possibly change.

“The surveys were being taken as the Iran and fertilizer situation was all unfolding. I’ve heard differing things about the fertilizer situation. Some of it appears to be regional. Feels to me, and based on what I’ve heard, farmers in the central Corn Belt and maybe in the eastern Corn Belt also had a lot of their nitrogen needs locked up prior to the initial attacks in Iran. And it seems like in some of, call them fringe areas or western Corn Belt areas, maybe not so much,” says Vaclavik.

He also points to market price shifts as another factor affecting planting intentions.

“Corn prices did rise at least momentarily following the initial attacks, and that may have helped to offset some of the fertilizer increase… but now we’ve given back all of those gains,” Vaclavik said.

The combination of global events, regional fertilizer access, and short-term price swings highlights the complexity of interpreting early March planting intentions, underscoring why NASS emphasizes that the report captures intentions, not final plantings.”

Crop Trends

While the report itself revealed some expected shifts, they were largely secondary to the trust and response issues. Corn acreage is projected at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from 2025, while soybeans are projected up 4% to 84.7 million acres. Wheat acreage continues a long-term decline, hitting a record low, with both winter and spring wheat contributing to the drop. Rice acres also declined slightly.

Honig describes these numbers as consistent with trends but reinforced the importance of interpreting them carefully.

“There weren’t a lot of surprises in this report,” he said. “But certainly some interesting numbers, and we want people to know this is what farmers were thinking in early March, given the economic environment and input prices at that time.”

Even with declining corn acreage and rising soybean intentions, analysts say the March Prospective Plantings report was largely in line with expectations. Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, describes the report as “rather an even keel situation.”

“No, I think it was tied,” Basse says. “When you lose three and a half million acres and gain three and a half million of soybeans, three and a half million acres of corn loss, you end up with rather an even keel situation. We need those extra, if you will, soybean acres. I would still say the market has a lean to buy more soybean acres relative to corn, but there’s also a strong historical tendency that we find additional corn acres by the June report. Over the last five to ten years, we tend to go up somewhere around two million acres in total. So again, maybe not that much this year because of [market conditions].”

With historical trends suggesting corn acreage may still rise slightly before final plantings are set, keeping the market closely watching June acreage updates.

Looking Ahead to June

With planting season underway, the June acreage report will provide an updated picture of plantings. As Basse pointed out, if you look at what history shows, corn acreage tends to increase by 2 million acres from March to June. But NASS officials emphasize that rebuilding farmer participation is critical for the reliability of all future reports.

“Absolutely,” Honig said. “I want to do everything I can to help reestablish that trust. I want to hear from folks: tell me, from your perspective, what we can do to help rebuild that trust. This is a partnership. Accurate numbers are critical for farmers. We need your cooperation, and we want to work together.”

2026 Acreage Outlook: Soybeans and Cotton Rise While Corn and Wheat Face Notable Declines

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:18:04 GMT

Iran Conflict Trumps USDA Reports as Money Flows into Food and Energy

"Prices are a function of supply and demand. Supply and demand does matter, but they are modified by the flow of money and that's certainly been true and evident in this Iran war situation," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX during a conversation on Markets Now with Michelle Rook. He says money has been flowing into the food and energy-based commodities on the expectation that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the movement of energy and fertilizer, there's a risk for higher prices. "Not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even food shortages," said Suderman. "In fact, there's quite a headline going across Wall Street today now expecting a global crisis of food in the months ahead. So money coming into those food-based commodities slowed down a little bit, ahead of today's reports, but now that today's reports are behind us, it didn't really give any reason to change that narrative. It continues to provide a tailwind in which we trade these fundamentals.

Bigger Acreage Impact From High Fertilizer Prices Might Come in 2027, Not 2026

Rising fertilizer prices ahead of planting aren’t unprecedented — and history suggests the biggest impact might not be immediate. Seth Meyer points back to Russian invasion of Ukraine as a clear example. Fertilizer prices spiked in late February 2022, sparking concerns farmers might shift away from corn. “Yet, at the end of the day, it wasn’t significantly noticeable that we saw a reduction in corn because of it.” In other words, even with a sudden cost shock, most planting decisions were already too far along to meaningfully change. Krista Swanson says the same dynamic might be at play this year. While higher input costs could affect some acres, not all farmers are equally exposed — especially those who already applied fertilizer or locked in purchases. But the bigger story might be what comes next. “As we look ahead … we’re not that far from when we’re getting shipments in for fall applications for next year’s crop,” she explains. While only some farmers might feel the impact in 2026, Swanson emphasizes the effects could be much broader in 2027. “This could be something that impacts all farmers … definitely thinking about how that positions decisions for next year.” Meyer agrees, noting fertilizer markets were already tight before the latest geopolitical disruptions, with prices for key inputs such as MAP and DAP remaining elevated. “If you’re trying to put fertilizer into position for the fall, you’re going to have to pay the prices you’re observing today,” he says. The takeaway is this: While 2026 acreage might not shift dramatically, sustained high fertilizer costs could cast a longer shadow, shaping planting decisions more significantly in 2027.

Listen to AgriTalk for Report Analysis and Market Reaction

Brian Grete with Commstock Investments joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to dig into the March 31 USDA reports. Click here to listen to the conversation. "We saw in 2025, what the March intentions are to the final acreage [estimates] could be a vastly different number," Grete told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. "That may be the case again this year. We will have to see. There isn't a whole lot of incentive out there to just go out and wildly plant. We see that in the principal crop acres, 310 million being the smallest since 2020 and down 1.2% from the 10-year average. It's a matter of the total acreage mix as we move forward."

NCGA's Krista Swanson: Significant Share of Corn Acreage Likely Set

When asked if the corn acreage estimate of 95.3 million was surprising, NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson replied no. She notes the estimate is down about 3% from last year, yet still comes in above USDA’s February projection of 94 million acres. That suggests farmers, at least at the time of the survey, were planning to plant more corn than initially expected. Swanson acknowledges it's still possible for farmers to shift away from corn as fertilizer and fuel costs rise, partly driven by geopolitical tensions. “Some acres could shift, but a lot of decisions are already made — and, in many cases, inputs are already purchased or even applied,” she says. “Once fertilizer is in the ground it becomes a sunk cost, and it makes switching away from corn much less likely."

USDA Survey Adds Timing Data to Capture Farmer Sentiment Amid Rising Fertilizer Costs

The timing of USDA's Prospective Plantings report matters more than usual this year. Market conditions were shifting in real time as geopolitical tensions with Iran escalated during the survey window. Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI at the University of Missouri, says the fact USDA-NASS shared a breakdown of when responses were submitted adds transparency that helps analysts better interpret the data, grounding farmer sentiment in the reality of rapidly changing input costs. Early survey responses might reflect very different expectations than those submitted later.

Wheat Acres Continue to Dwindle as Drought Stress Mounts

The latest Drought Monitor puts the proportion of US winter wheat area under drought conditions at a new high of 57% for 2026. That is significantly above 37% at the same time last year. USDA continues to pare back wheat acres in its latest prospective plantings report. The agency survey puts the all wheat planted area for 2026 at an estimated 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this would be the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

Planters are Rolling in Iowa and Illinois

Soybean Markets Surge as Iowa and Illinois are Expected to Plant Less Corn in 2026

According to USDA, planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states. Acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from last year are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. If realized, the agency says, the area of corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record. USDA also estimates soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Wisconsin. Soybean futures markets rose 17 to 19 cents midday following the release of the report, where USDA's survey showed fewer soybean acres than the trade expected, despite being higher than a year ago.

Matt Bennett: Bullish Soybeans and Wheat, Corn a Wash

On her Markets Now podcast, Michelle Rook chats with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net, to break down USDA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports and what the numbers mean to farmers. Bennett thinks corn acreage might drop in the June report due in part to the spike in fertilizer costs since the Iran war started. "Whenever it costs $1,000 or more an acre to put crop in the ground, there's no doubt we'll need to see a pretty sharp reaction before too awful long if we're going to switch many of those acres around," Bennett says. When it comes to soybeans, he says rotation and lower input costs both play a role. The biggest shock is the record low all wheat acreage at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Other spring wheat, at 9.42 million acres, was also down 570,000 acres and the lowest since 1971 due to disease and poor economics. "We've had very few opportunities to be able to step in and sell wheat at a profitable level," Bennett says. "It's just been problematic for a lot of growers to keep the same rotation they've had in the past. He was also surprised all cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, which is up 4% from last year. "Seeing cotton acres up, especially with the price action we've seen over the last year, is an absolute shock," he adds.

2025/26 Q2 Corn Demand Larger Than the Trade Expected

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: Corn and Soybean Supplies Surge Over 10% From 2025

USDA has also released its March Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers. At a glance: Corn stocks up 11% from March 2025 Soybean stocks up 10% All wheat stocks up 5% Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from March 1, 2025. An average of traders ahead of the report expected 9.10 billion bushels. Of the total stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.59 billion bushels, are down 2% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 4.28 billion bushels, compared with 3.93 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% from March 1, 2025. Traders pegged soybean stocks at 2.06 on average ahead of the USDA’s report. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.20 billion bushels, are up 16% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. The pre-report average of traders came in at 1.31 billion bushels. On-farm stocks are estimated at 298 million bushels, down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 8% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 377 million bushels, 12% above the same period a year earlier. Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2026 totaled 46.5 million bushels, up 21% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.2 million bushels, are up 40% from March 1, 2025. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.3 million bushels, down 4% from a year ago. From December 2025 to February 2026 disappearance totaled 14.9 million bushels, 17% below the same period a year earlier.

Markets React to Prospective Plantings Report

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher. As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher. Head over to Pro Farmer for reaction to USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage Intentions Total 180M

2026 Prospective Plantings: Corn and Cotton Top Trade Guesses as Wheat Slumps to Historic Lows

USDA's Prospective Plantings report is out. Here's a glance: Corn planted acreage down 3% from 2025 Soybean acreage up 4% All wheat acreage down 3% All cotton acreage Up 4% Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3%, or 3.45 million acres, from last year. Compared with 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states. That’s higher than the trade’s pre-report average estimate of 94.36 million acres. Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states. Heading into the report, trade analysts had an average estimate of 85.54 million acres. The all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Winter Wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% from last year Hard Red: 23.1 million acres Soft Red Winter: 5.79 million acres White Winter: 3.54 million acres Spring Wheat: 9.43 million acres, down 6% from 2025 Hard Red Spring: 8.78 million acres Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% from last year Trade analysts expected the all wheat number to be lower with an average estimate of 44.78 million acres. Cotton acreage is bouncing back just a little in 2026. USDA estimates the all cotton planted area for 2026 is 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year. An average of surveyed traders put the acreage number at 9.22 million for 2026. The March 31 estimate is also above USDA February Outlook estimate of 9.4 million acres.

Watch Live As NASS Releases Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Numbers

Watch live as the National Agricultural Statistics Service announces Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks numbers.

Time Will Tell How Acreage and Stocks Shake Out

Quarterly Stocks: Trade Eyes Massive Corn and Soy Inventory Build

USDA will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers today. The trade expects 9.1 billion bushels of corn, which is up nearly 1 billion bushels from last year but includes an increase of 775 million bushels on feed and residual. “I don't believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company. “Our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels.” Quarterly stocks on soybeans are estimated at 2.06 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last year, with wheat stocks at 1.3 billion, up just 60 million.

Mike North: Hoping for Optimism to Move Markets Higher

USDA's March Prospective Plantings Report tends to be "explosive" in terms of market reaction, according to Ever.Ag's Mike North.

Cotton Prices Rally, But Reality is Growers Are Still Chasing Break-Even for 2026

Tue, 17 Mar 2026 19:23:54 GMT

Cotton futures pushed to contract highs this week, giving producers a much-needed lift after a prolonged stretch of difficult market conditions. While the rally has sparked renewed attention across the cotton belt, the underlying drivers reflect a complex mix of market positioning, global uncertainty and ongoing demand concerns.

The price momentum is offering a glimmer of hope as many cotton farmers have faced three to four years of below break-even prices,
which has pushed farmers, and the entire cotton industry, to a breaking point.

Darren Hudson, associate dean at Texas Tech University and director of the International Center for Agricultural Competitiveness, says the recent strength in cotton is less about a dramatic change in fundamentals and more about how traders are repositioning in the market. After an extended period of bearish sentiment, that shift alone has been enough to generate upward momentum in prices.

“Managed money has been heavily short in cotton,” Hudson says. “What we’re seeing is those traders reducing their net short positions, and that’s creating buying pressure as they come out of those positions.”

December cotton contract

(AgWeb)

That unwinding of short positions has injected energy into the market at a time when outside influences are also shaping trader psychology. While some participants point to rising crude oil prices as a supportive factor, Hudson says that connection is often overstated and rooted more in perception than reality. Even so, sentiment can still influence short-term price movement, particularly when markets are already looking for a reason to turn higher.

“There’s always this sentiment that when oil prices go up, cotton prices go up,” Hudson says. “That’s kind of an old wives’ tale. Polyester is still really cheap, so it would take a large and sustained increase in oil prices to really shift demand in a meaningful way.”

Global Supply Questions Add Support

Beyond trader activity, there are also developing global supply considerations that are adding another layer of uncertainty, according to Hudson. South America, particularly Brazil, remains a key player in the cotton market, but questions are emerging about this year’s crop. Late planting of the second crop has shortened the growing season, which could affect yields, even if total production remains relatively solid.

“You do have some rumblings out of South America,” Hudson says. “The crop is probably a little smaller than in past years, and that late planting shortens the season for cotton more than other crops.”

Even when Brazil produces a large crop, Hudson says infrastructure limitations continue to play a role in how quickly that cotton reaches the global market. The country’s ability to gin and move cotton efficiently has not kept pace with production growth, creating timing issues that can influence global supply availability.

“They basically gin cotton year-round,” Hudson says. “They just don’t have the capacity yet to process everything quickly, so there are always questions about timing and when that cotton becomes available for shipment.”

Demand Still Lags Expectations

Despite these supportive elements, demand remains a concern and continues to cap how far the rally can realistically go. Export sales and shipments from the U.S. are lagging behind expectations, which limits the bullish case from a fundamental standpoint.

“We’re behind on export sales and shipments,” Hudson says. “That’s not bullish by any stretch of the imagination.”

At the same time, the cotton market operates differently than grains when it comes to available supplies. With relatively tight stocks, even modest changes in demand can have an outsized impact on price direction. That dynamic is particularly important as traders watch for potential buying activity from key importers.

“We don’t have much wiggle room,” Hudson says. “If someone comes in and commits to buying a million bales, that’s going to move the market because we don’t have a lot of excess supply sitting around.”

China’s Role Still Matters at the Margin

That sensitivity to demand helps explain why ongoing trade discussions with China are being closely monitored. While China is no longer the dominant buyer of U.S. cotton, any incremental purchases still matter at the margin and can quickly shift market sentiment.

“China is still buying some U.S. cotton, but it’s not the largest buyer anymore,” Hudson says. “Places like Vietnam and Bangladesh have taken on a bigger role.”

China is reportedly signaling openness to buying more American farm products , even as broader geopolitical tensions remain high. Reports say President Donald Trump and China President Xi Jinping held what they described as “remarkably stable” talks over the weekend in Paris, with agriculture emerging as a key topic. But what caught the cotton market’s attention is the fact China is reportedly considering increasing purchases of U.S. goods such as beef, poultry and other crops, while remaining committed to major soybean imports in the years ahead. That helped fuel the cotton market.

Hudson says it’s important to remember cotton reacts differently than soybeans to trade headlines because of that diversified demand base. Negative news tends to have a muted impact, while positive developments can generate a stronger price response.

“If China comes in and buys additional cotton, that’s new demand,” Hudson says. “That’s something the market has to react to, and it can push prices higher pretty quickly.”

Reality is Profitability Remains Out of Reach

While the recent rally has improved sentiment, it has not yet translated into profitability for most producers. Years of financial losses, combined with rising input costs, have left many operations in a precarious position heading into another growing season.

Hudson says the reality on the farm is that current price levels still fall short of what producers need to break even, especially when factoring in basis and total production costs. That gap continues to influence planting decisions and long-term outlooks for the industry.

“Break-even is probably somewhere between 78 and 83 cents,” Hudson says. “When you back off basis, even 76- or 77-cent futures only gets you to about a 73-cent farm price.”

That margin pressure is compounded by tightening credit conditions, as lenders become more cautious after multiple years of losses in the sector. Producers are increasingly focused on simply maintaining operations rather than building equity.

“A lot of producers have been hit with several bad years,” Hudson says. “Banks are getting stingy, and they really need that 80-cent range to have a chance to break even.”

Even with weaker grain prices, cotton has not yet reached a level that would encourage widespread acreage shifts. According to the National Cotton Council’s (NCC) Planting Intentions Survey, U.S. cotton producers intend to plant 9.0 million cotton acres this spring, a 3.2% decline from 2025, with a nearly 21% drop in the Mid-South. Input costs, particularly fertilizer and fuel, remain elevated, limiting flexibility for producers evaluating cropping decisions.

“There’s just not a lot of incentive to move acres into cotton right now,” Hudson says. “The price just isn’t high enough, especially with input costs where they are.”

Long-Term Pressure from Synthetics

Looking longer term, Hudson says the industry faces a structural challenge that extends beyond short-term price movements: competition from synthetic fibers. As global textile demand continues to evolve, cotton has steadily lost market share to cheaper alternatives like polyester.

“Synthetic demand continues to erode cotton’s share globally,” Hudson says.

He says one of the key lessons for the cotton industry is recognizing where purchasing decisions are actually made. While past marketing efforts focused heavily on consumers, Hudson says the real influence lies with brands and retailers, who determine fiber content long before products reach store shelves.

“Consumers don’t make that choice,” Hudson says. “Brands and retailers decide the fiber mix months before that product ever shows up in a store.”

That shift in strategy is now being reflected in industry efforts to engage more directly with manufacturers and apparel companies, with the goal of increasing cotton usage at the production level rather than relying on consumer preference alone.

Cautious Optimism Ahead

Despite the ongoing challenges, Hudson says there is cautious optimism as the market shows signs of life. The recent rally, while still fragile, provides an opportunity for producers to manage risk if prices continue to improve.

“If we can get back into that 75- to 78-cent range, producers should start looking at locking some of that in,” Hudson says. “It may not build equity, but it can help cover costs and keep things moving.”

For now, the cotton market remains in a delicate balance. Prices are supported by shifting market dynamics, but still weighed down by structural and economic pressures that will take time to resolve. But if cotton prices can at least reach break-even for this year, it could help save a industry that seems to be drowning in headwinds.