Farm Business - General

DOJ Settlement With Bayer Aims To Lower Barriers for American Farmers

Thu, 21 May 2026 13:47:05 GMT

Bayer CropScience has agreed to remove several provisions from its seed loyalty program following a federal antitrust probe, the U.S. Department of Justice announced Wednesday.

The changes, which Bayer has committed to maintaining for at least seven years, follow an ongoing investigation by the DOJ’s Antitrust Division into exclusionary conduct within the U.S. corn and soybean seed markets. Officials say the move will immediately benefit American farmers and independent seed companies by lowering barriers to competition.

“American farmers deserve competitive markets, not contractual restrictions that limit choice and innovation,” Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward said in a statement. “This Department of Justice will use every appropriate tool to protect farmers and preserve competition.”

The federal scrutiny centered on Bayer’s “Premier Performance Program.” According to antitrust officials, the loyalty program previously forced independent seed companies to meet strict sales targets for both corn and soybean seeds to qualify for discounts.

Investigators raised concerns that this structure anticompetitively tied the two crops together, effectively squeezing out alternative options.

Bayer has formally committed to a seven-year ban on reinstating the practice.

Additionally, the DOJ targeted incentives within the program that discouraged independent seed companies from licensing technology from Bayer’s competitors. Bayer has eliminated those provisions and agreed not to revive them, or any substantially similar incentive program – also for the next seven years.

Decision Signals Crackdown On Monopolistic Practices

Federal officials emphasized that the resolution signals a broader, ongoing crackdown on monopolistic practices in the agricultural sector.

“Enforcement in agriculture is a top priority for the Antitrust Division,” said Acting Assistant Attorney General Omeed A. Assefi. “We are focused on conduct that poses competitive harm to both farmers and consumers.”

The settlement highlights a deepening partnership between federal antitrust regulators and agricultural authorities. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins praised the outcome, linking it to a 2025 joint initiative between the two agencies.

“I commend Acting Attorney General Blanche and the Antitrust Division of the Department of Justice for securing commitments from input giant Bayer CropScience LLC to remove unfair provisions from its loyalty program for certain seeds,” Rollins said in a statement. “We must celebrate this great progress, while acknowledging there’s much more work to be done.”

Fertilizer, Farm Equipment, Pesticide Manufacturers Served Notice

Stephen Vaden said USDA has been concerned about industry consolidation in various agricultural sectors and how rising prices have been passed on to farmers.

“Our biggest challenge going forward is to work on these input costs... I’m also thinking about seeds, chemicals, and especially farm equipment. We’ve got issues in all of those sectors,” the USDA deputy secretary said during a recent Farm Journal report with Tyne Morgan. See USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden Says High-Level Washington Meeting Puts Fertilizer Industry on the Spot .

Vaden grouped equipment and seed costs into the broader conversation about rising farm input expenses and market concentration that farmers have faced for years.

Specific to fertilizer, Vaden says USDA’s message to fertilizer companies is simple: “Be part of the solution, don’t be part of the problem.”

The Justice Department stated that its broader investigation into the agricultural seed market remains active. The Antitrust Division encourages anyone with information regarding anticompetitive conduct or antitrust violations to contact its Citizen Complaint Center at 1-888-647-3258 or via email at antitrust.complaints@usdoj.gov.

Darren Bailey and Hallie Shoffner: Top Producer Award-Winning Farmers are Running for Governor and Senate

Fri, 15 May 2026 21:26:17 GMT

In November 2026, there are two previous Top Producer awardees on ballots in different parts of the country to serve for statewide political representation.

Top Producer of the Year finalist in 2018, Darren Bailey, of Bailey Family Farm, is running for Illinois governor
2024 Next Gen Award winner, Hallie Shoffner is running for U.S Senate in Arkansas

For both, running for office is an extension of the “sweat and service” they were taught on the farm. Both candidates are motivated by a fear that the “next generation” is being pushed away from farming while there’s simultaneously a growing lapse in representation from rural America.

Catching Up With The Candidates

When Bailey Family Farm, located in Clay County Illinois, was named a TPOY finalist, the business was farming 12,000 acres and managing trucking and excavating businesses. Bailey says in 2017, he was actively transferring farm management to two of his sons, Cole and Zach, and it was also the first year he was elected to serve as a state representative in Illinois. He went on to serve as a state senator, and had a campaign for governor in 2022.

Its farming footprint is similar today. One recent addition to the business portfolio was a large storage facility for paper goods and wood, which was managed by Zach. After Zach’s death in an aviation accident in October 2025, Bailey sold the business.

Read more about Bailey Family Farm here.

Hallie Shoffner, who farmed near Newport Ark., made the hard decision to exit farming in 2025.

“I knew that the farm would not go another year on February 10, 2025. I was looking at six different spreadsheets, and I thought to myself ‘we can’t put a seed in the ground knowing that we’ll lose money on everything we were growing,’” Shoffner says.

The next day, she called the auction company.

“I didn’t know who I was if I wasn’t a farmer. Even on the campaign trail, I still say, I’m a sixth generation farmer. Because I don’t know what else to say. I grew up farming and returned in 2016. I really do still hope that farming is in my future.”

Read more about Hallie Shoffner here.

Vision For the Future

They both believe that the resilience, multitasking, and problem-solving required on the farm serve them well in politics as well.

Bailey emphasizes that farmers deal with “uncontrollable situations” daily. On a farm, if something doesn’t work, you cut it; if it works, you add to it. He views the state budget and regulations as a piece of broken machinery that requires a farmer’s “roll up the sleeves” mentality to repair rather than gross mismanagement.
“On the farm we have equipment failures, equipment breakdowns, weather sets in, you have uncontrollable situations, and what do we do? We have to roll up the sleeve, and as soon as we can we get to work or we have to start all over again,” he says.

Bailey’s perspective is one of preventative stewardship. For Bailey, the state of Illinois is facing a succession crisis. He mentions that families and children are leaving the state for better opportunities elsewhere. He famously chose to spend money intended for a home expansion to accommodate larger holiday gatherings on his first governor’s campaign instead.

“There was no reason to build a bigger living room if the grandkids all lived in different states and we were traveling there for Christmas?” he says.

Shoffner believes the Senate needs the “integrity and care” of someone who knows how to get their hands dirty and can represent the largest industry in Arkansas saying one in six jobs in the state ties back to agriculture.

“Hard work and service is really at the heart of this campaign, because that’s what my parents taught me on the farm,” Shoffner says.

Bridging the Disconnect

Both candidates feel that rural America has been “overlooked” or “rigged” against, and they see themselves as the necessary bridge between the field and the capitols.

Shoffner focuses on the “empty chair"—the fact that no elected officials showed up to hear farmers in crisis in her state during farmer organized meetings. Her “why” is about providing a voice to the voiceless who are “grinding their teeth” at night.

“Rural America matters much more than people realize. Unless you have people from rural America representing these states in Congress, you’re not going to have anybody fighting for them,” Shoffner says. “The most important thing, that I have learned is that politics is more about listening, then it is talking. I think most of all, people just want to be heard.”

Both candidates believe the “long economic chain” of agriculture is invisible to current leaders, and only a farmer can effectively advocate for the rural hospitals, banks, and schools that rely on that chain.

Bailey views public service as “giving back” and using his own experience to help others.

“Growing up as a farmer, we’ve got a broad range of abilities, of experiences, of gifts, and I’m able to bring all of those to the table,” Bailey says. “So if I show up to the trucking company, and they’re telling me how they’re so fed up with too much regulation, you know what? I get that.”

Call To Serve

“Being involved in government, being involved in civic organizations, is of utmost importance to maintaining a constitutional republic, the greatest nation that the Earth has ever known–will ever know,” he says. “We have a responsibility to uphold that, and in order to uphold it, it is being involved giving up our time, giving up that one day a month, or whatever it is. Get involved and be the difference,” Bailey says.

He admits in the first half of his life, he wouldn’t have thought to step outside of his farming business and serve in a civic capacity. But he’s quick to say, he now firmly believes such a sacrifice is worth it.

Shoffner has learned through her own grieving process of closing down her family’s farm that public service can provide an outlet to share a vision—and perhaps prevent another farmer from having to make the same hard decision.

“I have this vision of being able to drive around and say, you know, that field that used to be just all soybeans or corn, and now look at it. It’s a whole mix of all sorts of different things that people eat, and we’re selling those back into the communities, and Arkansas is a place that not just feeds its own people, but, you know, exports food all over the world. That’s the vision that I have for when I am old, driving around in the truck with my son.”

Tap A $50 Billion Potential For $2/Acre

Tue, 12 May 2026 19:31:56 GMT

With a database of more than 1,100 programs, LandOption aims to guide farmers looking to stack federal, state, carbon, conservation, and recreational programs. Added up, CEO Eric Dinger estimates those agricultural and conservation programs are worth between $50-80 billion annually.

The Nebraska-based company is using AI to maximize income for farmers and landowners via its four-step process: Listen, Analyze, Navigate, Deliver. Navigating the programs, continuous updates, and list of eligibility requirements can be daunting.

While most programs require operational changes and multiple-year commiments, LandOption identifies which changes offer the highest financial return across multiple stacked incentives.

The opportunity to enroll the same acres in different programs—referred to as stacking—complicates things further. But using the strategy to enroll in multiple projects at one time is the greatest opportunity to maximize the dollars. Most common, federal programs can be simultaneously used alongside carbon programs.

“Currently, right now, no federal programs are making any carbon claims. So you can avoid additionality issues when it comes to these federal programs being used alongside and stacked with carbon programs,” says Ben Paige, director of operations and customer success at LandOption.

Upfront Cost to Avoid FOMO

For $2/acre, LandOption provides a “game plan” that identifies every available incentive for a specific parcel. On average, every parcel examined shows 70-75 available programs.

“Our database covers geographical eligibility, practice requirements, payment structures, contract terms, and hidden costs,” Paige says. “It helps you visualize being enrolled in multiple programs at once so you can choose the best path.”

The ‘Easy Button’

For a 10% commission—paid only when the program payment is received—LandOption manages the heavy lifting: application submission, deadline tracking, compliance monitoring, and payment verification.

Real-World Case Studies

Case 1: Southwest Minnesota Corn/Soybean Farmer (1,500 acres)

Background: No prior cover crop use, frustrated with complicated programs, tight margins
Results: 84 programs identified at ~$92/acre potential value
Enrolled: 7 stacked programs generating $210,000+ annually
Program layers: Carbon program + federal EQIP cost-share + local cost-share + habitat programs + tax programs + recreational hunting lease

Case 2: Southeast Nebraska Landowner (600 acres)

Background: Absentee landowner, family operates farm via cost-share agreement (60-40 split)
Results: 41 programs identified, enrolled in 4 programs
Annual payments: $21,000
Amplified engagement: Negotiated carbon program participation with tenant farmer through cost-share agreement for seed treatment application, with 60-40 split on carbon payments. Farmer had such a positive experience in the carbon program they enrolled an additional 1,400 acres.

Declutter the Carbon Opportunities

While carbon credit prices have struggled, “insetting” programs—driven by supply chain demands from companies like Cargill and Bunge—are more popular than ever.

“We break down the complexity to answer the core questions: What do I actually have to do, and which one pays the best?” Paige says. He notes that all agricultural carbon programs require landowner notification and consent when tenants enroll acres.

Bridging the Landowner and Operator Gap

Dinger notes operators focus on practice-based changes and operational cost-share (carbon, cover crops). Landowners show more interest in conservation easements, long-term programs, and succession planning, with conversations centered on asset valuation vs. income.

In addition to other adviser groups, Land Option works through Farmers National Company farm managers to leverage existing landowner relationships. The partnership enables efficient data sharing and integration with FNC’s reporting cycles.

Soybean Farmers Detail ‘Sustainable Practices’ That Can Pay Off

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:14:51 GMT

Cover crops were nearly scratched off Laurie and Jim Isley’s list of practices on their Michigan farm a few years ago. The reason? Production costs were adding roughly $35 an acre to their budget, which was already stretched beyond thin.

“Things were really limited for us, so we looked at that practice really, really hard,” says Laurie, who farms with her husband near Palmyra, Mich. “We can absolutely be environmentally sustainable, but the bottom line is we’re not going to stay in business unless we are profitable.”

The use of cover crops is back on firmer economic ground now, she adds, thanks to cost-share programs such as Farmers for Soil Health (FSH), which help make soil health investments possible for income-strapped growers.

Making Cover Crops Cash-Flow

The biggest hurdle for cover crops has always been the upfront cost versus the delayed gratification of better soil structure. The Farmers for Soil Health initiative is currently bridging that gap for growers in 20 states. Isley says the program offers up to $35 per acre in cost-share, plus technical assistance.

For many farmers, the frustration with government or industry programs often lies in the “fine print.” Isley highlights two specific features of the FSH program that make it a more useful tool for many row-crop growers:

The “No Look Back” Policy: Unlike many programs that only reward “new” adopters, FSH is open to almost any grower. “You are eligible for this program whether you are planting cover crops for the very first time, or whether you’ve been planting them for 10, 15 or 20 years,” Isley says.
Short-Term Commitment: “It’s a one-year contract, but you can re-enroll in it year-after-year (with up to 2,000 acres per operation) through the length of time Farmers for Soil Health continues,” Isley notes.

Beyond the dollars, the program addresses the “how-to” hurdle. Each state has designated advisers to help with cover crop species selection, seeding methods (including the use of drones), and termination timing.

“It isn’t just, ‘Go forth and find cover crops,’” Isley says. “Sometimes you just need some expert help in order to get started on something. Even if you say, ‘I’m only going to do 100 acres this year,’ that’s still 100 acres you’re going to get that $35 an acre on to get started.”

High-Oleic Soybeans: A Revenue-Side Opportunity

While cost-shares help manage expenses, Matthew Chapman is looking at the other side of the ledger: revenue. For his east-central Indiana farm, high-oleic soybean contracts have been a game-changer.

“This project’s really been a home run for the whole soybean industry,” Chapman notes. He says that backed by checkoff investments and partnerships with industry giants like Bayer, Corteva, and Beck’s, the specialty beans have already delivered over $400 million in total returns to U.S. farmers.

Chapman started off growing high-oleic soybeans on 20% of his acreage and eventually scaled to 100%. The premiums — ranging in his area from $0.75 to $1.25 per bushel last year — were a huge boost to his bottom line. But he says they have some requirements that farmers need to consider.

“Oftentimes you’re going to need to store this crop, depending on how far away your purchaser is,” he notes. “Your weed program and your plan need to start in the fall. There’s just a lot to consider ahead of time.”

The market is also evolving. High-oleic oil is prized by restaurants for its long fry life and trans-fat-free profile, and new markets are emerging. Chapman notes that his 2026 crop is destined for dairy feed — the beans will be roasted, cracked and fed whole.

United Soybean Board (USB) projections suggest that by 2027, about half of the U.S. high-oleic soybean crop could be headed to the dairy sector. Industrial uses are also gaining traction in asphalt, bioplastics and fire-resistant hydraulic oil, especially in sensitive environments like mining or near waterways.

Navigating The Carbon And Fuel Frontier

While the federal process for carbon intensity (CI) modeling is still unfolding, farmers see opportunity in markets tied to carbon scores and renewable fuels.

USB is currently funding research to ensure farmers aren’t left behind as these markets mature. One surprising finding from Iowa State University: simply planting earlier can reduce nitrous oxide emissions, a major contributor to CI scores.

“That really costs us nothing to do,” Isley says. By documenting this “free” practice change, farmers can potentially lower their CI scores and increase the value of their grain in renewable fuel markets.

However, participation requires data. Chapman emphasizes that farmers need to be the masters of their own information.

“Whenever you’re selling the data off your farm, which is what this is, it starts with knowing what we have,” he says. “It’s hard to sell something unless you know what you’ve got when you start off.”

In southeast Kansas, farmer Charles Atkinson sees this playing out in the biodiesel and renewable diesel sectors. He believes that using the product on the farm is the best way to support the market.

“It’s a product that we’ve developed, that we’ve raised, and it should be No. 1 on our priority list to use it,” Atkinson says.

The “Plan A Through F” Mindset Is Needed

Beneath all the programs and markets, the three growers say long-term profitability still depends on flexibility: having enough tools and plans on the shelf to adjust to whatever the season and markets throw at them.

The need for flexibility shows up in day-to-day decision-making. Atkinson describes his operation, based near Great Bend, as one that constantly shifts among no-till, cover crops, chemistry options and even occasional tillage, depending on the year’s weather, pests and markets.

“It seems like we have plan A, B, C, D, E and F, and depending on what gets thrown at us and what Mother Nature gives us, we have to figure out what plan to run,” he says. “Last year, I had a beautiful plan together. It was all going to work. And I think we were down to plan D before we got finished up.”

Chapman takes a similar view. He says farmers like having “a lot of tools in the toolbox,” even ones they rarely use.

“As the world’s always changing, we want to be proactive and we want to do stuff that we can voluntarily do on our farm,” he says. “Move towards that goal of leaving the farm better than you found it, and hope the day never comes that something’s your only option.”

Isley says programs such as Farmers for Soil Health, along with EQIP, CSP and state or watershed initiatives, help move more growers toward that toolbox mentality by reducing risk.

In her view, profitable sustainability isn’t about any single practice, but about using the right mix of programs, premiums and practices to fit each farm.

“I think we often are hesitant to look for help, because we want to be self-reliant,” she says. “But sometimes it really makes a difference if we look for technical assistance and for those resources that are out there and available to us.”

Isley, Chapman, and Atkinson shared their perspectives in a webinar, “How Sustainable Production and Economic Viability Can Coexist,” on Thursday. The program was hosted by Agri-Pulse in partnership with the United Soybean Board.

The Only Thing That Lasts: How Ted Turner’s 2 Million Acres Redefined Land Ownership

Thu, 07 May 2026 17:58:47 GMT

Ted Turner’s rise to the top of the Land Report 100 marked a transformative era of American land ownership. Once the largest private landowner in the U.S., Ted Turner had many titles, business accomplishments and accolades as well.

With his death on May 6, 2026, the discussion of his legacy began. And undoubtedly his impressive 2 million acres is the driving force with a “save everything” philosophy toward land stewardship.

“If you visit any of Ted Turner’s properties, there’s a bumper sticker available that reads, “Save Everything,” says Eric O’Keefe editor of The Land Report. “That was his approach, as far as being a landowner. He was a conservationist, first and foremost.”

Turner built a revolutionary business empire—taking father’s billboard company to building a global media powerhouse, pioneering 24-hour news with CNN and acquiring the MGM film library. His business success fueled his land purchases as he reinvested those profits into large tracts of land across the country, and notably in the western states.

“He was one of the original, in this generation, of corporate magnates who plowed their profits into land, O’Keefe says. He adds Turner was friends with the current No. 1 largest landowner John Malone, who he “gave the land bug to.” And it was Turner’s investments that inspired others including Bill Gates.

Turner’s acquisitions gained momentum in the 1990s, making his the first No. 1 largest landowner when The Land Report started its first ranked list in 2007. In the 2025 Land Report list, Turner was the fourth largest with 2 million acres located in Montana, South Dakota, New Mexico, Kansas, Nebraska, Georgia and more.

“He looked around corners in ways that few of us can really comprehend. He was buying the greatest ranches in the American West, and these phenomenal quail plantations decades before anyone else,” he says.

O’Keefe says a hallmark of Turner’s land buying was not only in its accumulation but how he enhanced it with conservation efforts.

“I love that Gone with the Wind quote, and of course, Ted acquired the MGM Library and, owned Gone with the Wind. And the quote is, ‘land, it’s the only thing that lasts.’ And at the end of the day, that was, to him, in my opinion the most powerful element of his legacy.”

Oregon Farmers Navigate The Ups And Downs Of A Changing Ag Landscape

Wed, 06 May 2026 22:05:35 GMT

Helle and Bruce Ruddenklau make almost every agronomic move on their Willamette Valley, Oregon, farm with their balance sheet in mind. Crop rotations, contracts and niche markets are the core tools they use to maneuver through and survive today’s costly inputs and soft crop prices.

The couple farm about 1,100 acres near Amity, Ore. They own a third of the ground and rent the rest.

About half the acres are in commercial grass seed — perennial ryegrass and fescue for lawns, golf courses, sports fields and parks. The rest of their acreage cycles through wheat, an oilseed called Meadowfoam (highly sought after in cosmetics, skincare products, and specialty industrial applications), green beans, occasional sweet corn and peas, radish seed for export to Japan, clover seed and hazelnuts.

The crop diversity is critical. It helps even out the economic ups and downs of farming, and it also helps address a problem the couple didn’t even know they had initially in the 1990s: herbicide-resistant grass weeds, a challenge exacerbated by the fact they produce commercial grass seed.

“We had to come up with a different way of fighting some of these grassy weeds without chemistry, and that was through rotation. And no-till was the other big, big thing,” Helle recalls.

In the late 1990s, the couple invested in a no-till drill and redesigned their rotation.

“The (commercial) grass seeds stay in for two to four years, and when they come out, we have at least two years of other crops in those fields so we can get new chemical applications on, try to rotate and get on top of any grassy weeds that may have built up,” Helle tells Andrew McCrea during a recent episode of Farming The Countryside , available on Farm Journal TV.

Focused On Crop Diversity To Create Income

Crop rotation is a framework for stacking income streams. Every crop has to pull its weight against rising fertilizer and fuel costs.

“As with all farmers, our input costs are higher than what they have been. That’s been a huge challenge. Everybody here’s trying to find something that’s more profitable to grow,” she says, adding that she believes Midwest farmers have an even harder time generating ROI.

Grass seed has delivered strong margins at times, but COVID-era demand whipsawed the market. A surge in lawn and turf projects sent prices sharply higher in 2020. Seed companies then pushed acres. A couple of variable years later, and the industry became awash in seed.

“We’re still working through that oversupply from three years ago or so,” Helle says. “Our price has dropped in half, basically, from what it was.”

With prices cut and input costs elevated, some growers are rolling the dice and producing grass seed on speculation.

“You have the option to grow grass seed without a contract, and then you have it on the open market,” she says. “If there’s a market for it, you can sell it. If not, you just sit with [it] in the barn and wait.”

The Ruddenklaus work hard to avoid being in that position, growing most everything under contract.

“We have one field that we have an open market Kentucky 31 variety on. But other than that, everything we grow is under contract on both the grass seed, specialty crops, hazelnuts, vegetables, everything.”

Relationships Play An Important Role In Farming

That contract-first mindset shapes what they plant and who they do business with.

“A lot of it is relationships with different dealers… that we know they will treat us fairly, and they know that we will produce a quality product for them,” she says.

Those relationships open doors to new niche markets that fit within their existing rotation.

“A few years ago, a local economic development company came to us and said a local soy sauce manufacturer was looking to have some local production of hard red spring wheat,” she recalls. “Oregon traditionally grows soft white wheat, so it’s not something we had worked with in the past, but we decided to try it, and that’s become a very valuable little niche market for us that has worked out well.”

Through that same connection, the farm links with AgLaunch, a Tennessee-based network that brings farmers and ag tech startups together.

“The companies come in [and] want to get the support of the farmers, the advice, the on-farm trials,” she says. “In exchange, they have to give up some equity to the farmers’ network. So through that, we also are getting exposure to some new companies and potentially new opportunities. We are definitely always looking at things.”

Some experiments — like trying grain corn and soybeans — have not become permanent fixtures on the farm. But even those tests help the Ruddenklaus calibrate where their competitive edge really lies: in specialty crops backed by contracts and rotations that help them manage weeds and other risks at the same time.

“I think agriculture has an amazing, amazing story. Farmers are innovators, and that’s just part of what we have done through generations,” Helle says.

“I’m not pessimistic about where we’re at,” she adds. “I believe agriculture has a bright, bright future. We belong in society. We have an important role to play. It won’t look the same as it has in the past, but we’ll figure it out.”

Helle was the recipient of the Top Producer 2026 Woman in Agriculture award . The award was sponsored by ProFarmer.

Know someone you would like to nominate for the Top Producer Woman In Agriculture? Nominations are open! Recommend your candidate here .

Farmland Value Check: Midwest Class A Ground Sees Pullback, Water Security Redefines California’s Market

Mon, 04 May 2026 03:08:14 GMT

New data assembled by Realtors Land Institute (RLI), the National Association of Realtors Research Group and Acres, highlights fundamental trends driving the land market today. But this year’s Land Market Survey, which was augmented by research conducted by Acres, unveils two trends in farmland regarding quality and productivity ratings as well as other trends important in the business management of farmland.

First, Overall Land Trends

In addressing widespread concerns about a potential U.S. recession, Dr. Lawrence Yun Chief Economist and SVP of Research, National Association of Realtors emphasized that, despite recent oil price shocks and persistently low consumer sentiment, the U.S. economy is not on the brink of recession.

The survey details multiple industries and sectors in land use and values, and for 2025, In terms of price growth, the ranch category led with a 2.2% increase in dollars per acre, outperforming other land types. Industrial and recreational land also saw solid gains of 1.9% each, while other categories experienced moderate increases. Notably, Commercial Real Estate Data Analyst, Oleh Sorokin anticipates that while land sales will strengthen in 2026, the pace of price growth is expected to slow, with projected increases in the ranch category dropping to 0.9% per acre.

How Are Farmland Values Performing Differently?

The presenters highlight the energy price correlation as Farmland values and operational balance sheets are heavily tied to energy prices, as oil and gas drive both fuel costs and fertilizer prices.

“Tariffs are one that it’s kind of dwarfed now by the energy situation, but tariffs were a pretty big impact last year,” says Aaron Shew, chief technology officer at Acres.

With fuel input prices and fertilizer input prices highly driven by energy prices, those effects are being monitored closely both in terms of price hikes but also duration of elevated prices.

He continues, “Some of the energy challenges that we’re undergoing with the war in Iran and the blockade, Straits of Hormuz, I think that has the potential, maybe less in the broader real estate market, but for farmland specifically, that could have a pretty large impact, depending on how it resolves, how quickly that happens.”

What Are The High Interest Trends?

Shew’s research reveals two eye-catching farmland value takeaways.

1. Midwest Market “Pullback": Class A farmland in the Midwest is seeing a “mature” pullback of about 10% from the 2021–2022 peaks, while Class B ground remains slightly more resilient.

(Acres.com)

First Shew notes, 2021 and 2022 saw 1.5x to 2x the average number of land transactions. The highest value per acres sales during that time earned a lot of attention. What he refers to as “hype.”

“Particularly in Iowa and Illinois, where farmers were buying farms for $25,000 or $30,000 per acre. you have these outlier transactions. It’s very, very few, but they catch a lot of attention and that kind of pushes some land values up.”

He says that raised expectations that Class A—or the highest rated productivity ground—had reached a new plateau in values and wouldn’t go down.

But Shew notes, as of 2025, there’s been a 10% pullback from those ’21 and ’22 peaks. And that’s on the highest rated ground in terms of productivity.

Class B ground values have been more resilient.

2. In California, Water is Half Your Land’s Value

Looking at the data, Shew says in California, water security drives the value, particularly for permanent crops. Tier 1 districts with multiple water sources maintain high values, while “white space” (areas without district water) is seeing significant distress and land fallowing.

“A lot of people are already talking about water regulations, how water security plays a role, and, permanent crops have been under duress for close to three years now,” Shew says. “So that’s not new, but we’ve quantified the impacts regionally, and across ag districts, and by permanent crop type.”

The crops showing this trend in spades: almonds and pistachios.

“For Tier 1 districts, for almonds, you’re looking at $30,000 plus an acre. And then you go to Tier 2 districts, and you’ll see it around a little over $20,000 an acre. Outside of districts, it’s called white space and you’re actually at $13,000 per acre, which is almond ground being sold as bare ground—rip and replace.”

(Acres.com)

He says Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) will mean that 500,000 to 750,000 acres of irrigated farmland will have to be fallowed or pulled out by 2040.

“So that’s about 10% of the farmland in California’s Central Valley, most of it in San Joaquin,” so we’re seeing some initial phases of that as we’ve seen tens of thousands of permanent crops come out in the past few years,” Shew says.

He adds, “Water regulatory bodies have put more pressure on farming in California. It’s just going to create a harsher environment for how water gets distributed and allocated.”

Resilience via Government Assistance

Programs such as the Farmers Bridge Assistance are preventing forced land sales by supporting farm operations, which keeps land values stable despite two years of challenging economics. He says we are reaching the tipping point in year three.

“Farm operations can be poor for a year or two and you’re not really going to see it show up in land values,” he says. “But we’re on a third year of this, and we’ve got other challenges that are fairly unprecedent at the same time, so there’s a lot to watch.”

“If you have to declare bankruptcy on your farm, 80% of most farm balance sheets is land, so that’s the large asset that’s going to get sold by the bank,” Shew says. “Government policies to provide support, The Farmers Bridge Assistance is the most recent one that probably plays the largest role, and it just helps farmers get to the end of ‘26, where hopefully balance sheets are in a good place.”

He’s also watching how the provisions in the One Big Beautiful Bill come to bear this fall and at year end.

“Reference prices for, rice, in particular, is one that comes to mind. Those will take place and hopefully create some stability, but you have got to get to the end of the year.”

Transaction Volume Stabilization

Nationwide transaction volumes have returned to pre-pandemic (2018–2020) levels, though California is seeing an uptick in volume due to “distress sales” from owners who can no longer float the costs.

“The low interest rates ‘21 to 23, roughly created a great time for folks to invest in land. They wanted to deploy capital, and land is the definition of a real asset,” he says. “You had that boom, and then, of course, as rates went up in ’23 and ’24 and values stabilized at much higher levels, it turned off that capital allocation.”

(Acres.com)

National farmland transaction volumes in 2024 and 2025—transaction count, acreage turnover, and overall volume of dollars—is approximately the same as 2018 and 2020.

“Q4 of ‘21 and Q1 of ‘22, we saw three times the typical amount that would turn over,” he says. “So in Q4 of 2021, we saw 10 billion in farmland in one quarter—high volume and high values.”

While 2021 was the big, from a year-over-year standpoint, that began to fall back, by 20%, then 30%. He says the flattening from 2024 to 2025 is a bright spot to show overall stability.

“We’re not going to continue to see less transactions or lower sales volumes. We’re seeing that stabilize at a more consistent level alongside where interest rates are,” he says. “And presumably, if we see interest rates decrease, we will see that pick back up, and start what may be another cycle.”

You can download the full Market Values Report here.

New Data: Is U.S. Agriculture Facing a Typical Cycle or a ‘Geopolitical Reset’?

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 18:56:46 GMT

The latest Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor shows a bit more pessimism from respondents on the current state of the ag economy as well as how the present compares to one year ago.

Farm Journal regularly reaches out to a vetted list of 80 ag economists from across the industry. Providing directional insights, 10 of the 16 economists who responded to the April survey believe the ag economy is in a worse state than it was a year ago. Slightly fewer than half expect conditions to be “somewhat better” in 12 months, while one-third still anticipate further decline.

“I just haven’t really changed my level of pessimism regarding this year. This is going to be a tough year. There’s no doubt about it,” says Michael Langemeier with Purdue University.

The conflict in Iran weighs heavy on economists’ minds; high fertilizer prices and high energy costs dominate concerns. This overshadows the previous looming concerns of the trade fragility and export deficit. The previously announced government payments are in the rearview mirror.

Wes Davis from Meridian Agribusiness Advisors agrees that profit margins squeezed by high input costs are the top concern.

“When we talk about the more pessimistic view of the ag economy, fertilizer prices driven by the outbreak of war in Iran is certainly top of mind,” he says.

But Davis says there have been some positive tailwinds for commodity prices over the past few months, and there’s ‘no slowdown’ in demand for animal proteins.

“Those tailwinds continue to be present,” he says.

A Fundamental “Structural Shift”

Three-quarters of the economists believe U.S. agriculture is undergoing a permanent structural shift rather than a typical cyclical phase. They cite increased competition from Brazil, changing trade policies and the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence as factors reshaping the industry for the long term.

(Farm Journal Survey, April 2026)

“I’m thinking of this one as the geopolitical and input reset,” Davis says. “What I mean by that is, where things go and how we interact with the global ag economy when this cycle or when this shift is over will be different. The way that farmers get their agrichemicals, their fertilizers, their vitamins/trace minerals for feed, their tractors will all be different.”

Davis brings up the farm bill as another example. He questions whether the structural shift in policy is moving away from supporting “commercial farm preservation” and more toward “rural economic development.” This distinction could change the long-term framing of ag policy.

While Davis’ perspective is in the majority, Langemeier offers a counterpoint. He says this today reminds him a lot of the 2014 to 2019 period when there were about six years in a row of relatively low crop margins.

“I know there are a lot of changes going on, and certainly we’re worried about the competitiveness of U.S. agriculture compared to Brazil, particularly for soybeans,” he says. “As one example, I think the AI developments actually could be positive, and so I don’t necessarily see why that would necessarily mean a structural shift that would be negative.”

Geopolitical Impacts on Input Costs

The conflict in Iran and broader Persian Gulf instability are identified as primary drivers of agriculture’s economic health. Economists are specifically concerned about how these tensions are “pinching margins” by driving up the costs of energy and fertilizer while commodity prices remain relatively low.

“The negative impact of the Iran conflict has been increased fertilizer and energy prices. I did some crop budget calculations: If you hadn’t bought your fertilizer and most of your fuel is yet to be purchased prior to the Iran conflict that’s a pretty large effect on corn break-even price. I calculate it to be 25 cents a bushel. And when your break-even price is already at $5, which is way above what the futures price adjusted for basis is this fall, that’s certainly not helping matters,” he says.

It’s not just fertilizer and fuel. It’s other input categories in row crop agriculture and livestock production as well.

Noting input prices are 15% to 20% higher than pre-COVID levels, Davis points out that prices for active ingredients have gone up 20% to 30% since the conflict in Iran started.

“This continues to exacerbate that question around how long are we going to continue to see input prices increasing?” Davis says. “The other things that are less talked about but are starting to show up in pricing data are things like low inclusion additives for livestock feeds, so things like vitamins and trace minerals are starting to show up in pricing increases as well as they are being disrupted in trade flow and a slowdown of exports from China.”

Langemeier adds to the question around input pricing increases, saying it’s unknown if the uncertainty and elevated costs will go into 2027.

Strategic Deferment of Capital Expenses

To manage tight margins, farmers are expected to prioritize paying down debt over investing in land, equipment/technology, capital improvements and labor. Machinery and equipment purchases are the top items likely to be reduced or deferred in 2026, with half of economists also warning that cuts to fertilizer and crop protection could start impacting yields.

(Farm Journal Survey, April 2026)

“The number one thing as always is farmers want to be paying down debt,” Davis says. “Equipment is going to continue to be in a trough, and my expectation is that tractor sales year over year are still going to be 10 to 15% lower this year versus last year.”

He also foresees a continued transition to generic crop chemicals for the next two years.

Davis makes a distinction regarding which farms could survive this pinch on profitability. He describes a “tale of two economies” where disciplined farms with high liquidity can still find financing to grow, while those who grew aggressively at the peak of the cycle are facing a “pullback” from lenders. This adds a layer of nuance to the “commercial viability” discussion.

Langemeier provides a sobering warning about how farmers are managing the third year of low margins. He notes a trend of farmers starting to borrow against their land (non-current debt) to cover operating expenses — a pattern seen during the 2014 to 2019 downturn. He emphasizes the urgent need for “contingency planning” and a “Plan B” for debt repayment this fall.

“Usually, farms will try to cover their owner withdrawals and repay debt before they even think about making down payments on machinery. Capital expenditures always get squeezed when cash flow is tight. That’s just the way it works. We’re in one of those situations where capital expenditures are just going to be lower, primarily machinery and buildings,” Langemeier says.