Feeder

Breaking the $250 Barrier: Cattle Markets Charge to New All-Time Highs

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 15:13:54 GMT

Live cattle futures surpassed the historic $250 mark on Tuesday, driven by record-breaking $250 cash trades in the North and a 75-year low in U.S. cattle inventory . Despite geopolitical tensions and higher fuel costs, robust consumer demand and a lack of Mexican imports continue to push both fed and feeder cattle to all-time highs as the industry enters the peak spring grilling season.

After the correction off of record highs late last year — triggered by President Trump posting he wanted to lower beef prices — some market watchers were unsure the market would retest those levels. However, live cattle futures hit all-time highs on Tuesday, exceeding last October’s record prices, while feeder cattle made new contract highs.

Record Cash Driving Futures

The spot month (April) live cattle futures contract moved above the psychological $250 mark this week, hitting a new high of $253.60 on Tuesday, while June hit a contract high at $252. The futures were pushed by the recovery in the equity markets, but more importantly, they were chasing the fed cash trade. Last week’s 5-area weighted average steer price hit a record $248.38, up $3.42 from the previous week.

Brad Kooima, of Kooima Kooima Varilek, says although it was on light volume, the North led the cash trade with live sales hitting an eye-popping $250 for the first time ever.

“Some of us got $250 in the North to a regional packer. It wasn’t widespread at all. None of the majors ever bid it,” he explains. “The rest of the feedlots were more like $248, and so most everybody passed. Then there was a little bit of trade in Kansas Friday at $249. And then it was kind of unusual, but there was some trade in Texas on Saturday at $248.”

The previous cash record for the 5-area weighted steer was $246.91, scored the week of Feb. 23.

Higher Fed Cash Cattle Trade This Week

Even after these lofty levels, Kooima says he believes fed cash trade could keep climbing this week as tight supplies continue to support the market.

“The feedlot has still maintained leverage. So, I think there’s a shot we’ll be a little bit higher — let’s go $252,” he says. “I don’t know. Maybe that’s a little bit optimistic, but I’ll take my shot that we’re going to be a little bit better, but it won’t happen until late in the week.”

His optimism is based on beef packers buying very few cattle last week and with feedlots holding out for higher money due to tight breakevens.

“I still think we’re in a window of time here of 30 to 45 days where we are cleaning up the old-crop yearlings. You know there’s a few big cattle, but we don’t have the weight problem that we had three to four weeks ago as you’re going into the front end of these calves that aren’t hardly fat. I just don’t think that the feedlot’s going to have any urgency at all to sell as these cattle.”

Futures Continue to Make New Contract Highs

With higher cash trade, Kooima expects the futures to remain resilient, even in the face of the Iran War, higher gas prices and equity market corrections. Additionally, speculative “fund” traders have returned as aggressive buyers.

“There’s an end to that game. However, in the meanwhile, the holding action rally that we’re experiencing, I expect, is going to continue for a little while yet,” he adds.

The 14-Minute Metric: Why Consumers Aren’t Feeling “Sticker Shock”

Supply is only one-half of the equation, as the strength in consumer demand cannot be underestimated as the market enters the peak grilling season.

“It begins with buying for Mother’s Day,” Kooima explains. “So let’s hope that we’ve energized the Choice cutouts, that we see the middles, you know, the steak cuts lead us out of here.”

Kevin Good , vice president with CattleFax, says the rally the last couple of years has been driven by beef demand, which is at a 40-year high. He concludes there is no evidence of sticker shock.

“Even though we’re at a price point where we’re a little concerned we might have some consumer pushback,” he explains. “If we look at how many minutes it takes to buy a pound of beef and at 14 minutes it is back to the level we were at the last cycle peak in 2014 to 2015. So if we put that into perspective, the consumer is saying for that eating experience we’re still a bargain.”

Feeder Frenzy: The Impact of the 1.2 Million Head Border Gap

The feeder cattle futures also reached new contract highs on Tuesday with the May contract topping at $377.57 1/2. That market has also been pushed by the 75-year low in the cattle herd, plus the lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports has further tightened supplies.

The Southern border has been closed for the last year to prevent the introduction of New World screwworm (NWS), resulting in 1.2 million head fewer feeder cattle being placed in southern feedlots. The feeder cattle cash index is reflecting the tight inventory and the red-hot prices at auction barns across the country. The index was up $7.27 on Tuesday at $373.94.

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When Risk in a Crisis Becomes a Turning Point: Lessons from Top Producers

Wed, 25 Feb 2026 16:51:41 GMT

In a volatile agricultural landscape, risk is a constant. Weather, markets, input costs, succession issues, cyberthreats and pandemics all push farm families into uncomfortable decisions. During the “When Taking Risk in Times of Crisis Pays Off” panel at Top Producer Conference, six producers shared how they’ve navigated those moments — and what they’ve learned when the stakes were highest.

The panel, moderated by Rena Striegel, president of Transition Point Business Advisors in West Des Moines, Iowa, included: Edward and Rebecca Dalton, of Dalton Farms, Wakeman, Ohio; Chris Payne of 3B Hay & Straw, Ontario, Ore.; Wendy Alsum Dykstra and Heidi Alsum Randall of Alsum Farms and Produce, Friesland, Wis.; and Ron Rabou of Rabou Farms, Albin, Wyo.

Their stories spanned family tragedy, ransomware, COVID-19 disruptions, organic transitions and bold expansion moves — offering a candid look at what it really means to take risk in agriculture.

Here are five key takeaways from the conversation:

1. Crisis as a Catalyst, Not a Dead End

For several panelists, a crisis didn’t just test their operations; it forced a complete re-evaluation.

The Daltons describe being emotionally exhausted and financially stuck before a Top Producer event pushed them to question everything.

“We were floundering in agriculture,” Rebecca says. “We were not making any money, really. We were just doing it to do it and to continue that legacy. And we were to the point where, like, ‘why are we doing this?’ You know, we only have so many days here. We only have so much time here.”

After a series of family tragedies and persistent unprofitability, they made a bold move to transition about half their acres to organic production. The shift brought much-needed profitability and renewed purpose.

“The risk was I was going to quit farming,” Edward explains. “We needed something and a spark and to just want to farm again.”

In Wyoming, Rabou’s turning point came after the sudden death of his father and the unraveling of a complex family ranch structure. Walking away from a fifth-generation operation was emotionally painful, but necessary.

“We did a lot of soul searching, and I kind of came to the conclusion that the risk for me for not doing something was much greater than actually doing something,” he says.

Rabou and his wife started essentially from scratch, building an organic grain operation and a hunting enterprise, borrowing heavily despite having grown up in a “never borrow” mindset.

2. Numbers Matter — But They Aren’t Everything

A recurring theme was the importance of knowing your numbers while recognizing data alone cannot drive every decision.

“Knowing our numbers is what really helped us,” Edward explains. “If you know your own data front and back, when you really get into those tight situations that you need to be able to think and move… sometimes you just have to move, whether you want to or not.”

Recently, the Daltons made a bold move back to conventional production. The Daltons’ choice to step out of organic was a conscious decision to go against what the spreadsheet said, in favor of their family and team.

“Right now, when I’m hauling $12 beans instead of $40 beans, like we were for a few years, I’m not really happy with that decision, but it was too much time,” Edward explains. “We were losing time with our boys, and that ultimately is why we went back, even though we were making more money per acre.”

Rabou emphasizes having a clear philosophy about leverage: “I have no problem borrowing money on appreciating assets, but I have to be very careful about borrowing money on assets that depreciate.”

For him, land and infrastructure are long-game investments, and he admits he more often regrets the risks he didn’t take than the ones he did.

“I’ve never looked back and said I shouldn’t have made that investment,” he says. “But I have looked back a multitude of times and said, ‘Wow, I wish I would have made that investment.’”

3. Fear vs. Action: Moving When the Window Opens

Panelists agree that fear is often the biggest barrier to seizing opportunity — especially when decisions must be made quickly.

Oregon onion grower and packer Payne describes how, in the middle of a tense meeting, he and another young partner were essentially challenged to buy out older shareholders in an onion packing facility. They had seconds, not months, to commit.

His broader advice to producers now: “Don’t get caught up in fear. If you let fear dominate your thought processes, you’re never going to succeed.”

Preparation helps in those “15-second” decision moments, Payne adds. Continually learning, attending conferences and thinking through scenarios ahead of time gives you a framework so you’re not starting from zero when opportunity knocks.

Edward adds, “You absolutely know how it’ll go if you don’t try. If you’re not willing to try, it’s not going to work. You can’t move forward if you don’t do something or try.”

4. Cyberattacks, COVID-19 and the Power of Systems

For Alsum Farms & Produce crisis came in very modern forms: a ransomware attack and then the COVID-19 pandemic.

“At 3 a.m. one morning in October, I got a call from our IT manager that we had been hit with ransomware,” Wendy explains.

She explains recovery from the attack required all hands on deck, multiple external experts and months of work to protect traceability and keep product moving. The aftermath included layered backups, new server and email security, user training and an ongoing relationship with cybersecurity and insurance professionals.

Just months later, COVID-19 hit. With 90% to 95% of their business retail-focused, the Alsum team quickly formed a COVID-19 response group, redesigning workflows to keep employees safe and shelves stocked.

The sisters say one key result from COVID-19 was when another supplier faltered, the Alsums were ready to step up for a major retailer — turning crisis into opportunity.

5. Relationships as a Strategic Asset

Beyond capital and land, the panel underscores the value of relationships — with peers, competitors and buyers.

Edward, Payne and Rabou maintain a group text, often used when one of them is wrestling with a big decision.

“Have people in an industry that you can trust and communicate with,” Edward stresses. “There’s been days they’ve literally had to walk me off a ledge when I’m trying to figure out how to make a decision.”

In the potato and produce world, Heidi says, competitors often become collaborators when the chips are down.

“The nice thing about the potato industry and the produce industry in general that we’ve experienced is that it’s been very collaborative,” she explains.
Rabou adds he sometimes sells grain below top price to maintain long-term relationships and outlet security.

“Those relationships to me are more important than making the dollar in the moment,” he explains.

His broader warning to producers is to stop comparing your operation to your neighbors’.

“You really have to determine what works good for you as an individual, you as a couple, you as a business,” he stresses. “Stop paying attention to what everyone else is doing.”

The Bottom Line from Top Producers

Across all their stories, the panelists echoed a few core principles:

Know your numbers but also know your values.
Act in crisis — don’t let fear make the choice for you.
Be willing to pivot, even away from something profitable, if it no longer fits your life or strategy.
Invest in appreciating assets and in relationships, both of which can pay off long after the crisis has passed.

In short, risk in times of crisis isn’t just something to endure; handled intentionally, it can be the turning point that reshapes a farm for the better.

How Bullish is the Cattle Inventory Report for the Cattle Market?

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 10:30:15 GMT

USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest herd in 75 years.
This comes as the cattle industry is still healing from consecutive years of drought, but the surprise is that record high cattle prices aren’t enticing producers to rebuild.
The lack of herd rebuilding has likely extended the historically tight cattle numbers out an additional year.Which means these near to record cattle prices could linger into 2028.

Cattle Inventory Smallest Since 1951
USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report confirmed the U.S. cattle herd remains historically small, showing inventory at 86.2 million head, down 317,000 head from last year.

Patrick Linnell, Director of Market Research, CattleFax says: “The total cattle numbers came in down 0 .4 % from year ago, which does take total cattle numbers in the US down to the lowest level that it’s been since 1951. So it does just continue to decline cyclically. and i think that’s the big picture message of this report is that that that expansion while there was some signs of it within this report by and large expansion remains elusive at this point.”

Smaller Beef Cow Herd a Surprise
He says the biggest surprise in the report was a decline in beef cow numbers as the herd is now the smallest since 1961. (Graphic)
Linnell says, “As you looked at just how tight beef cow slaughter was this past year, us and other groups had expected that we would actually see an increase in the beef cow herd. Small, but an increase nonetheless. But however, that’s not what this report showed. It still showed beef cows coming in about 1 % smaller, down about 280 ,000 head.”

Factors Slowing Rebuilding
Linnell attributes the slow expansion to drought, age, lack of labor, higher interest rates, high market risk and financial rebuilding.
“You have a lot of producers who are opting to take the to take today’s paycheck instead of holding back that heifer and counting on returns for her in the future.”

Calf Crop Smallest Since 1941
The calf crop was also down 1.6% at 32.9 million head. The calf crop is the smallest since 1941 indicating the feeder cattle supply will remain tight for a while.”

Linnell says, “The calf crop did come in down about half a million head from year ago, the 2025 calf crop, that is. At the same time, feeder cattle and calf supplies, they continued their decline. 4:02 No surprise there, as you just think about, the multiple years, the continued declines in the calf crop, a slight uptick and heifer retention, and the continued lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports.”

Market Impact
So the cattle cycle isn’t even into the tightest numbers yet.So how long will cattle prices remain strong?
Linnell says, “Fewer potential breeding females coming into 2026 suggests that the calf crop is probably going to be steady to maybe a tick smaller again in 2026 and as you think about the tail of that you know it does suggest that that maybe into the tail of 27 but realistically it’s 2028 before you start seeing an increase in domestic and domestic fed cattle slaughter and domestic fed cattle supplies.”

The wild card is when the border reopens to Mexican cattle.But Linnell is optimistic the cattle market could retest the 2025 highs and stay strong another two to three years.

Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days

Fri, 23 Jan 2026 17:56:32 GMT

While fundamentals continue to drive the cattle market, increasing prevalence of external factors can play havoc day-to-day.

Based on placements the past six months, Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek believes the tightest supply of this entire cattle cycle will occur in the next 60 to 90 days. It wouldn’t be the first-time the market makes a high in February or March.

“Now beyond that, I don’t see there’s a tremendous chance to have an oversupply of cattle going into the summer,” he adds. “However, you’ve got things like the Mexican border that are coming into play. So, I’m trying to react to what I see, but the fundamentals aren’t going to change.”

Here are seven other takeaways from Kooima’s recent conversation with Chip Flory on AgriTalk:

1. Fundamentals Still Drive The Cattle Market.

“I wish we could just talk about cattle fundamentals,” he says. “I’m still an old-school fundamentalist who believes a lot in trying to figure out where we’re at with supply and how we’re getting along with the boxes and beef demand.”

Rumors and misguided comments, such as the New World screwworm (NWS) scare a week ago and geopolitical factors this past Tuesday, can cause the markets to react.

“Now, is it only supply? Of course not,” Kooima says, regarding what drives the markets. “But if I had to start there, barring more of this outside, new stuff we’ve been inundated with, I think the market still generally driving the deal. We don’t have enough cattle, and that’s why they’re cutting kill. That’s why they’re closing plants. There’s not enough to go around.”

2. Heifer Retention Exists But Isn’t a Major Market Factor.

Kooima says heifer retention has started but is insufficient to significantly change the supply trajectory.

“It’s not like 2015 when we flipped a switch and the whole world decided to save them at one time, but it’s there,” he says.

He’s predicting a 1% to 2% increase, saying the retention is regional — referring to the Dakotas, Montana and Colorado.

“What’s driving it is economics,” Kooima says. Some ranchers can’t afford to not sell their heifer calves, while other factors include the age of the rancher, no desire to deal with first-calf heifers and drought.

When asked if there is enough heifer retention to move the needle to bring some relief on the supply side, Kooima responds: “The short answer would be no. We’re never going to have a cow herd like we had 10 years ago. We’re going to have to figure out how to do with less.”

He says the strategy to increase supply is feeding to heavier weights and the growth in beef-on-dairy.

“The gorilla in the room, to me, is beef-on-dairy,” he says. “From a couple of standpoints, just from a raw supply standpoint, the dairy cow herd’s the biggest since 1993. It’s grown and grown, and why wouldn’t you if you can get $1,200 to $1,500 for a day-old calf?”

3. Mexico Has Built Feeding and Processing Infrastructure in Response to Border Closure.

Kooima says with the U.S.-Mexico border closed due to NWS, Mexico has figured out how to finish and process cattle.

“I think there’s a lot of people there who don’t want anything to happen,” he says, regarding reopening the border. “They’re benefiting from this great big bull market and now they’re selling the beef to us. So, it may never exactly be the way it was again. They waited too long on this matter, in my opinion. It’s not a market factor.”

4. Beef-on-Dairy and Vertical Integration Are Rising Concerns.

Kooima shares his concern about the long-term implications of vertical integration and the consequences of the growing beef-on-dairy supply.

“For the first time, you got an integrator that has the ability to control that thing from its birthday and schedule it out 341 days later to slaughter,” he explains. “A dream that the packers chase. I watched them wreck the hog market. I see what happened in poultry. This scares me to death. The combination of all of that is we’re losing price discovery. They’re going to try to slow it down as much as they can until they can control the supply.”

5. Packers Are Adapting to the Market.

Kooima says the closing of Tyson’s Lexington plant and shift reduction at its Amarillo plant are examples of the broad industry trend to reduce harvest rates and shutter facilities when supplies tighten. He explains the closing will result in even less negotiated trade. The Lexington plant primarily did formula (non-negotiated) pricing, and he predicts those formula customers will now go to Tyson’s Dakota City plant.

“Dakota City, a plant that’s closest to me, 64 miles away, is likely going to become a formula plant. It’s going to further deteriorate price discovery up in this neck of the woods,” he stresses.

He adds packers are also using tight supplies as an opportunity to perform necessary cooler clean-out cycles and reduce the number of harvest days per week.

“They’re systematically reducing kill to try to gain some leverage back,” Kooima says.

When it comes to regional packers, he hopes they can survive: “I think they’re critical to price discovery.”

6. Demand for Beef Remains Strong.

Kooima is bullish about beef demand, especially amid supply tightness.

“When people say demand is pretty good, I go ‘No, it is phenomenal,’” he says. “The demand for grind is crazy. We have to make sure we can continue to fuel that rocket.”

7. Risk Management is Essential Amid Market Uncertainty.

On protecting against risk, Kooima advises: “My mantra is and has been for a year and a half to buy some puts. You’re going to have to buy puts to keep you in business. Let’s not let 2015 happen to us again.”

He goes on to add: “Do I think that there’s a high-risk point here in the short term? No, obviously, I just said I think we’ve got the tightest numbers ever, but there’s always something that can go wrong, so be careful.”

Listen to Kooima’s and Flory’s AgriTalk conversation here:

Your Next Read — Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What’s Next in 2026?

Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 20:04:16 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

What Finally Stops the Cattle Rally? Grains Fall on China Trade Tensions

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 14:53:55 GMT

Cattle opened higher but turned lower with the rest of the livestock and grain complex early Friday morning.

Cattle Correct but Project to $388 on Feeders, $264 on Fats

Cattle futures opened higher Friday and feeders made all time highs once again before seeing some profit taking.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $25 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388 on the November contract, while live cattle could move to $264 on the December charts.

He says feeders have continued to be the leaders on the tight numbers and feedlots scrambling to buy inventory at any price.

The border being closed to Mexican feeder cattle has tightened supplies even further.

What Stops the Cattle Rally?

Varilek says the cattle market will continue to see this type of frothy action until the Mexican border is reopened and trade resumes, to which the timing is still unknown.

Brazilian beef imports have also seen an additional 50% tariff and that has also curtailed supply and so when that levy is lifted he says it could also have a chilling effect on the market.

Fed Cash Market Quiet

Meanwhile, the fed cash market has been very quiet as packers have been drawing inventory from cattle they had bought under delayed delivery arrangements a few weeks ago.

Varilek says there was some light business at $230 in the North early in the week and a few head were reported at $358 dressed on USDA’s mandatory report on Thursday, but otherwise it has been a thin market.

As a result, he says producers are holding cattle and feeding them to heavier weights.

Hogs See Further Fund Liquidation

Lean hog futures closed below major support on Thursday and are seeing some follow through selling on Friday.

Varilek says that market has seen a steep correction since the bullish news in the Hogs and Pigs Report and he predicts more downside pressure as fund continue to shed more of their record long position.

They are also hearing from customers that hog barns are full indicating disease problems have lessened and supplies are growing.

Grains Fall on Harvest Pressure, China Trade News

Grain futures are all lower on Friday as corn and soybeans see more harvest pressure ahead of a fairly open weekend for weather.

The other big news item is China overnight put levies on U.S. ships coming into their ports and has also reportedly purchased six cargoes of South American soybeans for Nov-Dec delivery. This follows China announcing they were putting additional restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and sanctions on a U.S. chip maker.

This is weighing on especially the soybean market, despite President Trump reiterating on Thursday that he was going to talk to President Xi about purchasing U.S. soybeans.

Varilek says the market is starting to want some proof of that business before moving higher.

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 19:50:44 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

Your Next Read: 47% of Beef Producers Plan to Increase Herd Numbers

Rust in the Ration: How to Combat Southern Rust’s Impact on Corn Silage

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:04:48 GMT

With the warm and wet conditions this season, southern rust is on the rise in Midwest corn crops. It may be time to start considering the impact that could have on corn silage and preparing to adjust rations accordingly. While southern rust is not a direct threat to herd health, it has been shown to lower the nutritional value of silage and can compromise feed quality.

Southern rust, a fast-developing fungal disease caused by Puccinia polysora, does not itself produce toxins, but it weakens the plant and provides the opportunity for other diseases to move in. These opportunists include various Furasium species, which produce mycotoxins (fumonisin and deoxynivalenol) that can be harmful in feed.

Southern Rust and Corn Silage Quality

Southern rust is known to impact corn silage quality. A study from the University of Florida showed increasing rust infestation resulted in increased dry matter and fiber fractions, but that dry matter digestibility decreased by 13%. Further, high rust silages had lower neutral detergent fiber digestibilities than medium and no rust silages. Southern rust also affected the concentrations of lactate and volatile fatty acids, causing both to decrease with increasing infestation. These results indicate decreased nutritive value.

The observed increased dry matter also reduced silo packing effectiveness. If moisture levels are too low at harvest, it is difficult to achieve adequate packing, which leads to poor fermentation and an increased risk of mold growth.

Because southern rust coverage reduces the photosynthetic area of the leaf, grain fill is often hindered, leading to a lower energy and protein content in the silage.

Southern Rust Silage Management

There are a handful of strategies producers can apply to counteract the effects of southern rust:

Adjust harvest time based on moisture content. Southern rust can cause corn to dry down faster than normal. Monitor moisture levels closely to ensure the proper fermentation of silage.
Consider a silage inoculant. Inoculants improve fermentation, and the rapid pH drop can inhibit mold and yeast growth.
Ensure good packing and storage. Pack silage well to limit oxygen exposure and prevent mold growth. Cover bunkers immediately and weigh down coverings thoroughly.

Feeding Southern Rust Silage

To counter the nutritional challenges of feeding southern rust-infected corn silage, dietary supplementation may be necessary.

Prior to inclusion, test all potentially infected silage for mycotoxins. This will allow you to determine the safety of the feed and avoid potential health issues. If mycotoxins are high, the incorporation of a mycotoxin binding agent into the ration will help reduce toxin absorption in the animal’s digestive tract. Additionally, supplementation with antioxidants, such as vitamin E and selenium, could help animals by countering oxidative stress caused by mycotoxins and supporting immune function.

If grain fill was affected and starch levels are low, you may need to incorporate an additional energy course to compensate. Further, poor grain fill could reduce the already low protein content of corn silage, and protein supplementation may be required.

When incorporating infected silage, ensure it is thoroughly mixed into the TMR to dilute potential ‘hot spots’. Inclusion levels of contaminated silage in the feed may need to be limited or removed entirely for sensitive animals, including lactating or breeding animals. Livestock should be monitored closely for symptoms of mycotoxin toxicity, such as reduced intake, weight loss, digestive issues or reproductive challenges. Be prepared to respond if issues arise.

When feeding corn silage infected with southern rust, caution is essential to protect livestock health and performance. The thoughtful use of compromised silage can help minimize risk while maintaining efficiency and animal well-being.

Your next read: Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Breaking News: Mexican Ports to Reopen in Phases for Cattle Trade Starting July 7

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:55:31 GMT

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced today a risk-based phased port re-openings for cattle, bison and equine from Mexico beginning as early as July 7.

The announcement is following the extensive collaboration between USDA–Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) experts and their counterparts in Mexico to increase New World screwworm (NWS) surveillance, detection and eradication efforts. The port reopening timeline is:

Douglas, Ariz. – July 7
Columbus, N.M. – July 14
Santa Teresa, N.M. – July 21
Del Rio, Texas – Aug. 18
Laredo, Texas – Sept. 15

After each reopening, USDA will evaluate to ensure no adverse effects arise.

Progress Being Made to Stop Progress of NWS

According to USDA, progress has been made in several critical areas since the ports were closed on May 11 , including:

Resolution of challenges with conducting flights in Mexico that has allowed the team to consistently conduct sterile NWS fly dispersal seven days each week
Dispersal of more than 100 million flies each week
USDA sent five APHIS teams to visit, observe and gain a deeper understanding of Mexico’s NWS response. The APHIS teams were allowed the opportunity to share feedback.

USDA says there has not been a notable increase in reported NWS cases in Mexico, nor any northward movement of NWS over the past eight weeks.

“At USDA we are focused on fighting the New World screwworm’s advancement in Mexico. We have made good progress with our counterparts in Mexico to increase vital pest surveillance efforts and have boosted sterile fly dispersal efforts. These quick actions by the Trump Administration have improved the conditions to allow the phased reopening of select ports on the Southern Border to livestock trade,” Rollins says. “We are continuing our posture of increased vigilance and will not rest until we are sure this devastating pest will not harm American ranchers.”

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) says it supports the plan to strategically reopen key ports of entry.

“NCBA and our state affiliates have spent months working with USDA to safeguard the U.S. cattle industry from the threat of New World screwworm. We strongly support USDA’s five-pronged plan to fight the screwworm, which includes bolstering sterile fly production by renovating a facility in Metapa, Mexico, and by building a new fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in south Texas,” says NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “Today’s announcement to reopen key ports of entry is a measured, thoughtful approach by Secretary Rollins to allow some trade while also ensuring the American cattle industry is protected from this pest.”

While the Douglas, Ariz., port presents the lowest risk based upon the geography of Sonora and a long history of effective collaboration between APHIS and Sonora on animal health issues, USDA intends to reopen additional ports in New Mexico, and if it is proven safe to do so, in Texas, over the coming weeks. Additional port openings will be based on APHIS’ continuous reevaluation of the number of cases and potential northward movement of NWS, Mexico’s continued efforts to curb illegal animal movements, and implementation of further rigorous inspection and treatment protocols.

“We trust Secretary Rollins made this decision with the latest information from USDA staff in Mexico, and we know she will continue holding her counterparts in the Mexican government accountable for eradicating screwworm,” Woodall adds. “NCBA and our state affiliate partners will continue working with USDA and key members of Congress to protect the United States from New World screwworm.”

Continuing Efforts

USDA is working with Mexico’s National Department of Health, Food Safety and Food Quality (SENASICA) on outreach, education and training efforts to raise awareness and put producers on high alert about NWS, along with utilizing their well-functioning central laboratory for diagnosing cases. While Mexico has made great progress on animal movement controls and surveillance, additional progress will help ensure the remaining U.S. ports reopen. Enhanced animal movement controls to stem illegal animal movements from the south, along with robust surveillance and NWS risk mitigations beyond check points will be critical in pushing back NWS. APHIS technical teams continue to engage with SENASICA to improve the overall NWS posture in Mexico and implement the rigorous steps needed to keep this pest away from our border.

Mexico will also begin renovation of its sterile fruit fly facility in Metapa this week, with renovation expected to be completed by July 2026. Renovation of this facility will allow for production of between 60-100 million sterile NWS flies each week. This is a critical step towards reaching the goal of producing the estimated 400-500 million flies each week needed to re-establish the NWS barrier at the Darien Gap.

Only cattle and bison, born and raised in Sonora or Chihuahua, or that are treated according to cattle and bison NWS protocol when entering these states, will be eligible for import. See Importing Live Cattle and Bison From Mexico to the United States for more information on cattle and bison import requirements.

In addition, reopening the Del Rio (Aug. 18) and Colombia Bridge (Sept.15) ports will be contingent on Coahuila and Nuevo Leon adopting the same NWS protocols for cattle and bison as those now required of Sonora and Chihuahua for cattle or bison entering those states.

Equine may import from anywhere in Mexico. They require a seven-day quarantine at the port of entry and must import in accordance with the equine NWS protocol and other requirements detailed on USDA APHIS | Import Horses from Mexico webpage . Approved equine facilities are available at the Santa Teresa, N.M., port and will be available for entry of horses when that port is reopened.

In May 2025, USDA suspended imports of live cattle, bison, and equines from Mexico into the U.S. due to the continued and rapid northward spread of NWS. During the weeks of June 2 and June 16, teams of APHIS experts conducted robust onsite assessments of Mexico’s NWS response efforts to fully reassess the risk of NWS incursions to the U.S. posed by importation of Mexican cattle across our southern border.

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Rollins Rolls Out 5-Point Plan to Contain New World Screwworm

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 19:00:05 GMT

Today Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to combat New World screwworm (NWS) – a pest that would devastate ranchers if it made its way across the border.

Rollins made her announcement at the Moore Air Base facility near Edinburg, Texas. Moore was instrumental as a sterile fly production lab to rid the U.S. of NWS in the 1960s and 1970s. Hundreds of millions of flies were reared, sterilized with radiation and dropped from aircraft to eliminate the parasitic pest that preyed upon wildlife and livestock. According to a USDA spokesperson it will cost an estimated $8.5 million to get the base up and running as a distribution facility.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins this morning launched an $8.5 million sterile New World screwworm (NWS) fly dispersal facility in South Texas and announced a plan to enhance USDA’s already robust ability to detect, control, and eliminate this pest.

(U.S. Department of Agriculture)

According to the Texas Wildlife Association , there are currently more than 1,800 cases of livestock infestation in southern Mexico. The flies are moving north and are currently 600 miles from the south Texas border.

“We have defeated the screwworm before, and we will do it again,” Rollins says.

Here in McAllen, TX to announce a BOLD 5-pronged plan to combat the deadly parasite called New World Screwworm – which would devastate ranchers if it made its way across the border.

We are protecting producers, strengthening biosecurity, and ALWAYS standing up for American… pic.twitter.com/VHOlqZyZ9a
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) June 18, 2025

Her five-pronged plan to combat NWS includes:

Stop the pest from spreading in Mexico.
Rollins plans to continue partnering with her Mexican counterparts and using sterile insect technology to stop the spread. This includes investing $21 million to produce up to 100 million additional sterile flies weekly.

“We are first enhancing the international sterile fly production and investing $21 million in renovation of an existing fly facility in southern Mexico, which will provide up to 100 million additional sterile flies every week to stop the spread,” Rollins says.

Currently, the only sterile fly facility is located in Panama. It’s jointly run by the Panamanian government and the U.S. government. USDA had previously announced its plan to invest in the retrofiting of a fruit fly facility in Chiapas, Mexico, to produce additional sterile flies.

According to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association , “The Chiapas facility produces about 117 million flies per week, but to form an effective barrier along the U.S. southern border, we need upward of 300 million sterile flies per week.”
Protect the U.S. at all costs.
Rollins temporarily closed the southern border to live animal imports and intercepting illegally introduced livestock. USDA is working closely with Mexico to improve surveillance.

“I do believe we have met and moved into a new era of productive partnership —perhaps better than ever before — with our Mexican counterparts,” Rollins says.
Maximize our readiness.
This will be achieved by partnering with state animal health officials to update emergency management plans and stockpile therapeutics for ranchers.
Take the fight to the screwworm.
The domestic fight includes establishing a sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base. Rollins says they are exploring options for building a domestic production facility at Moore that could produce up to 300 million sterile flies per week.

“We can’t get a brand new facility up and running probably before two or three years. So, that’s why we’ve got to really focus on the today,” Rollins explains.

She also announced USDA will be hosting listening sessions in affected areas starting next week.
Innovate Our Way to Eradication.
Leverage the sound science including USDA’s Agriculture Research Service (ARS) to continue to quickly develop novel treatments, preventatives and response strategies. Rollins says this includes working with land grant universities in Texas, Arizona and New Mexico. She listed these key strategies during the press conference:
- Develop better fly traps and lures
- Provide local training
- Improve surveillance methods
- Create new response strategies

Nearly 80 lawmakers led by House Ag Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) sent a bipartisan letter on Tuesday to Rollins urging immediate action and promising congressional support for the significant funding required.

The letter included this message, “When looking solely at the historical impact of NWS in Texas, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) estimates a contemporary outbreak would cost producers $732 million per year and the Texas economy a loss of $1.8 billion. Extrapolating those results to the states within the historic range of NWS pre-eradication, a contemporary outbreak of NWS could cost producers $4.3 billion per year and cause a total economic loss of more than $10.6 billion. This does not account for the possible expansion of NWS beyond the historic range.”

U.S. Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) was at the announcement and recently shared in a letter to Rollins these key advantages of the Moore Air Base location:

Border proximity: The proximity to the border with Mexico is crucial for effective monitoring and control of potential incursions of invasive fly species. A facility in this region would allow for rapid response and containment, minimizing the spread of infestations into the U.S.
Existing agricultural infrastructure: The region boasts a robust agricultural sector with established infrastructure and expertise in livestock management. This existing framework would facilitate efficient integration of the sterile fly facility and streamline its operations. Additionally, Moore Air Base has operations runways equipped to distribute sterile flies.
Strategic location: Moore Air Base offers a central location for distribution of sterile flies to other areas in the southern U.S., if such a need arises. Additionally, this base was the site of a facility used in the 1960s to successfully combat NWS.
Economic impact: The establishment of such a facility would provide valuable economic opportunities for the region by generating jobs and stimulating local economies.

U.S. Congressman Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) summarized at the announcement, “This is important to the whole country. We are going to be aggressive about this, and we are going to make sure that we don’t get screwed by the screwworm.”

Your Next Read: Urgency in Action: We Must Eradicate New World Screwworm

Understand the $6.50 Surge in Feeder Cattle Futures

Mon, 12 May 2025 20:34:15 GMT

The cattle market hit records numbers on May 12, with August feeder cattle futures reaching highs of $306.85.

Not to be attributed to just one thing, this $6.50 surge is likely due to tandem effects of both the lowering of tariffs with China, as well as the USDA’s decision to close the southern border again because of concerns with New World Screwworm.

“Markets are way up today if you looked at the futures, but it’s hard to sort out how much of that is due to Mexico,” says Derrell S. Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist. “Probably the bigger part of it is the stock market and all the tariff related stuff that’s going on.”

What’s ‘Normal’ For Animal Imports v. Today?
So far in 2025, a total of 197,844 head of feeder cattle have been imported since the border reopened, down 60% year over year for the year-to-date. In 2024, a total of 1.25 million head of feeder cattle were imported, with none in the last five weeks of the year, says Peel in his weekly market report.

“On an annual basis, the number of feeder cattle we bring in from Mexico is equivalent to 3.5% of our calf crop ,” Peel adds. “It’s not insignificant, but it’s not a huge, huge factor either.”

Peel says reducing the supply of cattle coming in has fairly big effects on cattle businesses who rely specifically on that source of cattle, much of which would be in the Southern Plains region.

“Folks who historically utilize those cattle, obviously are directly impacted, and they have to try to find other sources of cattle, but, again, the overall numbers are not big enough to be a major market mover,” he says.

Additionally, Peel says the majority of cattle coming into the U.S. from Mexico were spayed heifers due to drought liquidation.

John Hepton, Wilder Cattle Feeders in Idaho, says he has fed Mexican cattle in the past, but doesn’t have any in yards currently, so it’s not a supply issue for him, but he pays close attention to the futures.

“Feedlots aren’t getting those cattle from Mexico and they’re pulling feeder cattle farther away,” Hepton says. “It’s definitely having an impact on the price of feeders and the availability of feeders, which is going to have an impact on the amount of cattle that are placed on feed that end up at the processors. We’re already short as is.”

As a feedlot owner, risk management has always been a part of his business model, which helps as the markets climb.

“It looked like we were kind of hitting close to a high when the feeder futures got to three bucks,” he says. “We added some hedges and risk protection at that level then you wake up Monday morning and the market’s up four bucks, and you’re making margin calls because of an outside influence in the market. It’s just the way it is.”

Markets Shape Herd Size Dynamics
Hepton says he has heard from people in the industry that herd expansion is starting in places, but he’s not sure to what degree, which would put less heifers on feed.

“If you’re a cow-calf producer, it helps you price wise,” Hepton says. “We were already the highest prices in the history of the world and now it’s higher again. Producers will continue to get more for their calf crop coming up. Whether that changes their decision to save more heifers or not has always been more about forage availability than anything.”

He says time will tell if producers keep saving heifers as they will be giving up a big check.

“I think that’s part of the reason why there hasn’t been a lot of expansion yet; they are worth so much that it’s hard to hard to not sell them.”

Hepton points out other factors work together to determine what the industry does. He says there will be signals to continue to produce cattle.

“If we don’t get in a drought, the cow herd will eventually increase,” he says. “Also, if you get to a price point where demand backs off, first it’ll back off on the meat sales, then the fed cattle price, then feeder cattle price, and finally at the cow-calf level. In time, capitalism always works. If people can’t afford beef, that’s going to be the real driver of a change in this market, I think.”

Border Closure Aims to Limit Exposure To Pest
While the change in markets has gained industry attention, Peels says the USDA decision to close the southern border is very much a veterinary issue to make sure the New World Screwworm stays out of the U.S.

“The pest moves with cattle, potentially, if they have it,” he says. “And of course, flies can just move, and they’re going to move in conjunction with cattle. Stopping the movement of the cattle is the first step in containing it. Then you use the sterile fly program to eradicate it and start hopefully pushing it back farther south.”

Your next read: U.S. Suspends Mexican Cattle, Horse and Bison Imports Over Screwworm Pest

Mexican Border is Expected to Open for Feeder Cattle Week of Jan. 20, Sources Say

Tue, 07 Jan 2025 20:12:03 GMT

Imports of feeder cattle from Mexico are expected to partially resume the week of Jan. 20, according to sources. Imports will be slow at first due to the need to implement and test new protocols. Live animal movements are expected to resume fully sometime after the initial reopening.

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) suspended imports of live cattle and bison from Mexico on Nov. 22, 2024, following the detection of New World screwworm (NWS) along Mexico’s southern border. This pest can have a significant negative impact on cattle health, and U.S. authorities have been working to develop protocols to screen animals coming into the country.

Several factors are influencing the timeline and pace of reopening:

Facility inspections: Both countries have agreed on protocols, but implementation requires facility inspections and approvals.
Quarantine period: A seven-day quarantine after animal checks
Port readiness: The most important port to get moving again is Santa Teresa, New Mexico.

The temporary suspension of cattle imports from Mexico has had notable effects on the U.S. cattle market:

Reduced supply: About 250,000-300,000 fewer head of cattle are estimated to have been imported due to the suspension.
Price support: The trade disruption has been supporting feeder cattle and calf prices in the U.S.

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Young Farmer Cashes In On Corn With Cattle

Mon, 07 Aug 2023 15:10:31 GMT

At a mere 28 years old, Tony Schwarck jumped headfirst into a high-effort and high-risk business venture. After a decade of working with his parents and grandparents on their row-crop operation, he knew his future in farming would need to take a different path. Farmland and cash rents were sky-high in his competitive area of northern Iowa, so expanding their corn and soybean acreage to support three families was a big hill to climb.

Tony and his wife, Aarika, began researching ventures to complement their existing operation and generate new income. They had two resources during the winter months—time and corn. The couple explored several diversification options , but it was beef finishing that finally penciled out. The Riceville, Iowa, couple became farmer feeders, and in that first year, 2013, they marketed 300 beef heifers.

“We wanted to utilize our homegrown corn,” Tony says. “A young producer has time and not a lot of equity, so livestock is a great fit. We take the corn we raise, feed it to cattle and they are giving us a byproduct we can apply to our fields to help us grow better corn. It’s really added value to our acres of corn, and now we concentrate on marketing corn through cattle.”

This year, the Schwarcks are on track to market 2,500 head of cattle. They have also expanded their crop business to 1,200 acres of corn and soybeans, up from the first 160 acres Tony rented on his own in 2006.

Tony is armed with considerable management skills and sheer nerve. His ability to reimagine and build a venture from the ground up are just a few of the reasons he earned the 2019 Tomorrow’s Top Producer Horizon Award .

“Tony’s work ethic and decision-making abilities are unparalleled,” says Robert Williams, a CPA with Hogan Hanson and the Schwarcks’ long-time adviser.

Analyze. Monitor. Act. When the Schwarcks decided to become farmer feeders, they faced a big challenge: a lack of capital. They knew their plan could work. They just needed to get the bank on board.

This new venture created an opportunity to find a new lending partner. Their lender, Eric Paulson, helped them restructure debt and set them up on a borrowing base. Each month, the Schwarcks and Paulson analyze that borrowing base.

“This monthly review has made me a better manager, as it allows me to constantly know our financial numbers,” Tony says. “Every month Eric is looking at our numbers. If we have a good month, he points out what we did correctly. If we have an off month, we can identify problems and potential problems a lot quicker.”

“Tony and Aarika have utilized timely financial analysis toward managing their growth and improving efficiencies,” says Paulson, senior agricultural loan officer with Wells Fargo in Mason City, Iowa. “They are constantly asking for ways to improve both day-to-day and strategic operations.”

Aarika has taken over the farm’s record keeping and accounting. She created two accounts, one for cattle and one for grain, so they could properly assess financial decisions.

Numbers were always the basis of decisions for the Schwarck family, starting with Tony’s grandfather, Chris Schwarck and father, Dan Schwarck. “When we had meetings, even when I was young, the numbers were discussed,” Tony says.

This process of sharing financials with successors is key in making successful management transitions, says Dick Wittman, a family business consultant and Idaho farmer.

“Doing so exposes your successor to your business culture,” Wittman says. “Plus, someone wanting to join the operation needs to know the scale and scope of the business.”

“Feeding cattle has made me a better farmer.”

Comfortable Cows. Strict financial analysis led the Schwarcks to expand their finishing operation in 2017. They built a state-of-the-art cattle facility that houses 600 head. The building’s monoslope pitched roof and curtains allow sunlight and cool air in but keep snow and rain out.

“We can can’t completely control the environment, but we can really help it,” Tony says.

The Schwarck team uses a cloud-based software program, Performance Beef Livestock Analytics, to track data such as the cattle’s weights, feed ingredients and costs. Every day the cattle’s rations are automatically recorded using an iPad linked with the scale on the feed truck.

“This lets us track performance and weight,” Tony says. “We keep track of all costs, including freight, vaccines and vet expenses, death loss and any money we have invested in a hedge account. This allows us to be current on breakevens and billing.”

Typically, the feeder calves arrive at Schwarck Farms straight from a breeding ranch and weigh 550 lb. to 650 lb. Around 220 days later, they are ready to be sold, weighing around 1,400 lb.

The Schwarcks’ row-crop operation provides 60% of the corn they feed to the cows. The balance of their corn production is sold to local ethanol plants, from which they buy distillers’ grain.

To reduce costs, the Schwarcks traded their hopper trailer for a belt trailer so they can haul corn to the ethanol plant and reload it with distillers’ grain for the feed yard. “This alone saves our operation roughly $800 per week,” he says.

This constant eye on costs helps Tony smartly buy feeder cattle. “That’s one thing I have to work on,” he says. “If the numbers don’t work—pass. They sell feeder cattle every day of the year.”

Constantly, Tony sees how his experience as a farmer feeder improves his crop operation and vice versa. “Raising a market steer is the same philosophy as growing an acre of corn,” he says. “It’s the little things that count—that’s what separates big yields from small yields. Feeding cattle has made me a better farmer.”

For instance, having interests on both the supply and demand sides of the marketing ledger provides perspective. “Farmers are sitting on corn waiting for a better market, and we are moving that corn all the time and catching profit on it with the cattle,” Tony says.

For grain marketing, Tony develops what he calls a “strike zone” for prices. “When the market rises over our cost of production, I start making small sales. As the market continues to rise, I continue to sell until we are 60% sold,” he says.

Time To Delegate. As Tony has shifted into his leadership role, he’s assessed how he spends his time. “Being a young producer, I felt I needed to be the one who planted, fed the cattle, sprayed, etc.,” he says. “Now I know employees place a stronger bond with their jobs when they realize they have purpose and take pride in their work.”

Beyond family members, Tony employs two full-time and two part-time team members. His goal is to align employee strengths with daily roles and to provide a professional environment.

Tony says he’s lucky to have both his father and grandfather as mentors because they fall on two ends of the spectrum when it comes to risk. “I’ve learned from my dad to not bite off more than you can chew, and I’ve learned from my grandpa an opportunity doesn’t present itself very often, so be ready,” Tony says.

Looking forward, Tony is focused on fine-tuning his cost of production and maximizing profit.

“We’re margin operators in every aspect of our operation—whether that’s growing an acre of corn or producing a market-ready calf. The margin is thin, so we want to maximize every dollar we spend.”

Watch a video about Tony Schwarck’s operation and learn more about the Tomorrow’s Top Producer Horizon Award at bit.ly/Tony-Schwarck

A Snapshot of Schwarck Farms

A Family Affair: Tony Schwarck is a fourth-generation farmer in Riceville, Iowa. In 2004, he joined his family farm, which includes his parents, Dan and Laurie Schwarck, and grandparents, Chris and Ann Schwarck. “It’s a father’s dream to have your son follow in your footsteps,” Dan says. Tony and his wife, Aarika have a daughter, Annalee, 2.

Crop Farming: Tony’s crop operation includes 1,200 acres of corn and soybeans, while the family’s combined operation is 2,600 acres. The Schwarcks analyze soil and yield maps to set yield goals. Last year, they overhauled their 16-row corn planter with high-speed planting capabilities. “It was almost like getting a bigger planter since we can cover more acres in day,” Tony says.

Beef Finishing: In 2013, Tony and Aarika started a beef finishing operation. In the first year, the couple marketed 300 beef heifers. In 2019, they will market 2,500 head of cattle. Nearly all the cattle they finish are Black Angus, and they use the Iowa Cattle Marketing Group to negotiate the best price for fat cattle.

Leadership: The Schwarcks support many local organizations and causes, such as the Riceville Fire Department, Riceville First Foundation, Wapsie Great Western Bike Trail and the Riceville FFA Chapter. They are also members of the Iowa Cattlemen’s Association.

Photos: Pat Lichty, Top Producer

Kentucky Cattle Scheme With 78,000 Ghost Cattle Unravels

Fri, 05 May 2023 13:57:26 GMT

A massive fraudulent cattle scheme allegedly orchestrated by a Kentucky cattleman conned dozens of investors and a prominent agricultural lender out of $100 million, while his family – still grieving over the man’s suicide – is facing financial peril.

On Wednesday, USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) issued notification to anyone who sold livestock to and has not received payment from businesses operated by Brian McClain, 52, Benton, Ky., to promptly file Dealer Trust claims. Additionally, the three entities, McClain Farms Inc. , Benton, Ky.; 7M Cattle Feeders Inc. , Hereford, Texas; and McClain Feed Yard Inc. , Friona, Texas, filed bankruptcy petitions with the U.S. Bankruptcy Court for the Northern District of Texas on April 28.

McClain’s scheme allegedly dates back six years when, as sources told Drovers under condition of anonymity due to the nature of the allegations, he began seeking investors for his cattle operations with the “guarantee” of a 30% return on investment. Over time McClain’s inventory of cattle grew and some investors did see hefty profits. But those investors were apparently paid with more borrowed money.

McClain’s lender was Rabo AgriFinance, which sources claim became suspicious in April as the inventory of cattle on paper had reached 88,000 head. The scheme unraveled quickly when Rabo Agrifinance officials ordered an inventory check and found only about 10,000 head of live animals.

Following McClain’s death on April 18, Rabo AgriFinance’s representatives went to McClain’s operation in Kentucky and gathered the cattle, which were then sold at Blue Grass Stockyards.

Rabo AgriFinance officials were contacted by Drovers but had no comment on this story.

Many of McClain’s alleged investors were local friends and neighbors, many of whom say they were shocked to be swindled by someone they considered a friend.

In its notice on Wednesday, USDA-AMS said unpaid sellers to McClain’s businesses must promptly file Dealer Trust claims. “Unpaid sellers must act quickly as the law requires that claims be filed with USDA and McClain within 30 days after payment is due, or within 15 business days after a payment instrument issued to the livestock seller has been dishonored. Claim amounts should be for the gross amount McClain agreed to pay for livestock,” the AMS statement said.

Unpaid livestock sellers might be protected under a provision of the Packers and Stockyards Act of 1921 that requires all livestock purchased by a dealer in cash sales and all receivables or proceeds from such livestock to be held in a trust for the benefit of all unpaid cash sellers.

Claims should be submitted to: Agricultural Marketing Service, Fair Trade Practices Program, Packers and Stockyards Division, Midwestern Regional Office, 210 Walnut Street, Room 317, Des Moines, IA 50309. Claims can also be emailed to PSDDesMoinesIA@usda.gov.

For questions regarding the claims process, contact the PSD Midwestern Regional Office at (515) 323-2579.

Fed, Feeder Markets Take A Breather, Calves Higher

Sat, 12 Nov 2022 01:10:05 GMT

Packers were successful in filling their needs at steady money as wholesale beef prices moved lower. Cash cattle fundamentals deteriorated a bit this week as this week’s cash cattle trade was called disappointing. Feedyards were content to reduce showlists but remaining cattle are priced higher as supplies tighten moving forward.

Cattle trade in the North was called active with cash prices at $152 to $155 per cwt. and dressed sales at $240 to $244 dressed, both steady with last week. Moderate volumes in the South sold at $150 per cwt., also steady.

Feeder cattle traded steady to $3 lower while calves were called $3 lower to $2 higher.

At the CME, December live cattle fell $1.55 Friday to $151.525, down 12.5 cents for the week. January feeder cattle fell $3.125 to $178.575 and on the week lost $1.05. Today’s technically bearish weekly low closes in December live cattle and January feeder cattle set the table for follow-through chart selling early next week.

Wholesale beef prices were lower with Choice boxed beef closing Friday at $258.94 per cwt., down $4.81 for the week. Select boxed beef closed Friday at $235.27 per cwt., up $3.37 per cwt.

Estimated weekly cattle slaughter was 671,000 head, about 13,000 more than the previous week. Year-to-date total was estimated at 29.378 million head, up 1.6% over the same period last year.

USDA Inspector Charged With Accepting Bribes At Texas Border

Wed, 09 Mar 2022 17:16:28 GMT

A U.S. Department of Agriculture employee was paid to allow tick infested and diseased cattle to enter the country, according to an indictment filed in a Laredo federal court.

Authorities arrested Roberto Adams in Laredo, Tex., on March 3, 2022, charging him with bribery of a public official. Court documents identify Adams as a USDA Lead Animal Health Technician.

The indictment states that Adams accepted bribes from about March 2019 to about November 2021, in the Southern District of Texas, for acts in violation of his official duties, specifically for allowing tick infested and diseased cattle to enter the U.S. without inspection or quarantine.

Last year the U.S. imported 1.128 million feeder cattle from Mexico. That was a decline of 21% from 2020 when 1.441 million were imported.

If convicted, Adams faces up to 15 years in federal prison and a maximum fine of $250,000.

The Federal Bureau of Investigation is reviewing the case.

Continuing Coverage: Cattle Market Dynamics and Packer Investigation

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 19:06:05 GMT

An unprecedented meeting held in May among major cattle industry representatives, typically at odds, has produced plans for change and calls for answers from U.S. lawmakers. Keep up with the latest on this page.

NCBA Statement on GIPSA Announcement

June 11, 2021

NCBA issued a statement in response to USDA’s announcement that they are beginning the process of initiating three separate rulemakings to support enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act.

USCA Applauds Bill to Establish Office of the Special Investigator for Competition Matters

June 11, 2021

Senators Tester (D-MT), Grassley (R-IA), and Rounds (R-SD) have introduced legislation that would amend the Packers and Stockyards Act to establish the Office of the Special Investigator for Competition Matters.

USDA To Strengthen Enforcement of Packers & Stockyards Act

June 11, 2021

USDA will begin work on three proposed rules to support enforcement of the Packers and Stockyards Act, a 100-year-old law designed to protect producers from unfair, and anti-competitive practices in meat markets.

NCBA Takes Action to Increase Producer Profitability Through USDA -Verified Labels

June 10, 2021

The NCBA has filed a petition with the USDA-FSIS to eliminate the use of “Product of the USA” and other broad U.S. origin labeling claims for beef products that are potentially misleading to consumers.

Additional Cattle Markets Legislation Introduced in U.S. House

June 9, 2021

Missouri Congresswoman Vicky Hartzler introduced the Optimizing the Cattle Market Act of 2021 in the U.S. House. If enacted, the bill would direct USDA to build a cattle formula contracts library.

NCBA Echoes Growing Demands for DOJ Investigation Results

June 9, 2021

Lawmakers continue calling on the Department of Justice to complete their investigation into the meatpacking sector, and whether or not anticompetitive practices have contributed to an imbalance in the cattle markets.

NCBA Pushes Congress to Address Cattle Industry Concerns

June 2, 2021

NCBA led a letter with the support of 37 affiliate state cattle organizations, urging the leadership of the Senate and House Agriculture Committees to address critical areas of concern in the cattle and beef industry.

Senators Promise Hearing On Cattle Markets

May 28, 2021

The disparity in cattle markets was a lead topic of discussion during Senate Agriculture Committee’s nomination hearing for USDA’s general counsel, with Senators promising to soon hold a hearing on livestock markets.

Cattle Groups Say Historic Meeting to Fight Market Monopoly is Just the Start

May 25, 2021

Calls for change came to a head this month, as cattle groups held an industry-wide meeting made history. And the groups say the first meeting is just the start.

Sen. Rounds Pushes DOJ On Packer Probe

May 21, 2021

The growing disparity between wholesale beef prices and live cattle prices is hurting both consumers and cattlemen, says Senator Mike Rounds, who asked members of Congress to sign a letter to the Department of Justice.

Meat Packers Respond to Cattle Industry’s Call for Change, Further Investigation

May 21, 2021

The cattle industry’s unprecedented meeting was centered around meat packing margins and claims of market monopoly. The meeting among the six groups is now drawing a response from the meat packing industry.

Senator Rounds Joins AgriTalk to Discuss the Cattle Industry

May 20, 2021

As Cattle Groups Making Unprecedented Move to Fight Market Monopoly, U.S. Lawmakers Also Push DOJ for Answers

May 19, 2021

An unprecedented meeting held early this month among major cattle industry representatives has now produced plans for change. It’s happening while a group of U.S. lawmakers are also asking the DOJ for answers.

Larry Schnell and Justin Tupper Talk About the Cattle Industry’s Meeting

May 18, 2021

Bicameral Push for Swift Conclusion to DOJ Investigation

May 17, 2021

Sen. John Thune and Rep. Dusty Johnson led a bicameral letter to U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland, urging the DOJ to move forward with its investigation into anticompetitive practices in the meatpacking industry.

Joint Statement of Livestock Organizations Regarding Market Concerns

May 17, 2021

Livestock groups discuss challenges involved in the marketing of finished cattle with the ultimate goal of bringing about a more financially sustainable situation for cattle feeders and cow-calf producers.

Cattle Industry Groups Hold Closed-Door Meeting to Discuss Price Imbalances

May 13, 2021

The more than $900 margin between producers and packers has the largest industry representatives, that are typically at odds, working together.

Livestock Report by Ben DiCostanzo

Sun, 22 Nov 2020 20:17:34 GMT

Live Cattle

On Monday August 13, 2018 the October Live Cattle contract broke down below the 112.25 – 108.175 trading range, trading to a low of 107.65 and settling at 108.15. It settled below the key level at 108.65 and the 108.175 low. It couldn’t get below the 107.35 support level on the break down however, so support is containing the selling. A break down from here could lead to a test 0f support at 106.025 and then 104.85.A recovery above 108.65 could see price move towards resistance at 110.80. On Friday, trade and demand was moderate in the Texas Panhandle. Compared to last week live purchases traded 3.00 lower at 111.00. Trade was light on light to moderate demand in Kansas, the Northern Plains and the Western Cornbelt. In Kansas compared to last week, live purchases traded mostly 3.00 lower from 110.00-111.00, bulk at 111.00. In the Northern Plains live traded unevenly steady compared to Thursday from 110.00-111.00. On Thursday in Nebraska, dressed cattle traded at 175.00. In the Western Cornbelt compared to Thursday, purchases traded unevenly steady with live ranging from 109.00-112.00, bulk from 109.00-110.00. Dressed ranged mostly from 174.00-176.00. On Monday negotiated cash trade was mostly inactive in all major feeding regions. Monday afternoon beef cutout values were higher on good demand and moderate offerings. Choice was up 1.82 at 208.43 with Select up 1.89 to close at 199.66 on 103 loads. The choice/ select spread narrowed to 8.77. The hide and offal value from typical fed cattle for today was estimated at 9.23 per cwt live, unchanged from Friday’s value. The estimated cattle slaughter for Monday was reported at 118,000.

Feeder Cattle

The September Feeder Cattle contract continued its consolidation within the August 8th trading range (150.25 – 147.20), making its 3rd inside candle in a row as it traded between 149.45 and 148.00. The coiling in Feeder Cattle could lead to a directional move once it breaks out of the consolidation. A break down could see price test support at 146.20 and 145.05. Support then comes in at 144.20. A breakout higher could see resistance tested at 150.90 and then 151.55. Resistance is then at 152.30.

Lean Hogs

The October Lean Hogs contract rallied early in the trading session, testing resistance at 53.80 as it made its high at 53.775. It broke down It broke down from here, testing support at 51.80 and settling just below it at 51.65. It formed an inside candle and trading below the 50.80 low could see price test support at 49.925 and then 48.725. Support then comes in at 47.40. A rally from settlement could see price revisit the high. Resistance then comes in at 55.475.

For those interested I hold a weekly grain (with Sean Lusk) and livestock webinar on Thursday, August 16th at 3:00 pm. It is free for anyone who wants to sign up and the link for sign up is below. If you cannot attend live a recording will be sent to your email upon completion of the webinar.

Sign Up Now

**Call me for a free consultation for a marketing plan regarding your livestock needs.* *

Ben DiCostanzo

Senior Market Strategist

Walsh Trading, Inc.

Direct: 312.957.4163

888.391.7894

Fax: 312.256.0109,

bdicostanzo@walshtrading.com

www.walshtrading.com

RISK DISCLOSURE: THERE IS A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS IN FUTURES AND OPTIONS TRADING. THIS REPORT IS A SOLICITATION FOR ENTERING A DERIVATIVES TRANSACTION AND ALL TRANSACTIONS INCLUDE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. THE USE OF A STOP-LOSS ORDER MAY NOT NECESSARILY LIMIT YOUR LOSS TO THE INTENDED AMOUNT. WHILE CURRENT EVENTS, MARKET ANNOUNCEMENTS AND SEASONAL FACTORS ARE TYPICALLY BUILT INTO FUTURES PRICES, A MOVEMENT IN THE CASH MARKET WOULD NOT NECESSARILY MOVE IN TANDEM WITH THE RELATED FUTURES AND OPTIONS CONTRACTS.