Frost

Assess Soybean Frost Damage: Ken Ferrie Urges Patience, Replanting Discipline After Hard Freeze

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:47:05 GMT

Earlier this week after a series of storms and subfreezing temperatures swept through central Illinois, agronomist Ken Ferrie walked his March-planted soybean test plots south of the Bloomington area and didn’t like what he found.

“We had a substantial frost, reports of temperatures from 29 to 32 degrees, with the frost hanging around three hours or more,” Ferrie says. “Things are kind of crunchy in the grass this morning.”

That crunch underfoot translates into real damage in soybeans. Some plants, Ferrie says, are not going to make it.

“The worst hit are soybeans in the unifoliate stage or more and that were planted in our low ground,” he notes.

Illinois wasn’t the only state where soybeans were hit by frost. Weather reports from Monday and Tuesday indicate a late-season cold snap brought frost and freezing temperatures to at least four additional key soybean-producing states, impacting parts of Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

According to the USDA Crop Progress report released on April 20, roughly 12% of the national soybean crop had been planted. States like Illinois and Indiana were slightly ahead of their five-year averages, making crops there more vulnerable to this specific frost event.

Don’t Rush To Replant, Be Disciplined In Your Approach

Ferrie describes a clear set of visual cues growers can use to evaluate frost damage in their crop.

“Look for unifoliate leaves that are dark and deflated, and the cotyledons have a dark color,” he says. “The biggest telltale is the stem has no turgor pressure right below the cotyledons.”

He notes that those beans with discolored cotyledons and limited turgor pressure will require more time to see if they will refire at the cotyledon node.

Ferrie urges growers to take a systematic approach to evaluating frost-damaged soybeans with these four steps:

Check bean growth stage and field position (low ground vs. higher areas).
Inspect unifoliate leaves and cotyledons for dark, deflated tissue.
Pinch stems just below the cotyledons to feel for turgor.
Flag concerning areas and return in a couple of days to reevaluate survival and stand uniformity.

This bean is at the VC growth stage. While leaves look nipped and are discolored, what matters even more is what’s happening just below the cotyledons. Ferrie says there is no turgor pressure in the stem underneath the cotyledons. Turgor pressure serves soybeans a number of ways, including support for the movement of nutrients and water. “This plant is going to dry up and die on us and not make it,” Ferrie says.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Video)

This plant shows some leaf damage and possible stem damage just below the upper leaves. However, turgor pressure lower in the plant looks good. This plant is likely to survive, but Ferrie says farmers would want to reassess plants like this a few days following a frost to make sure.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Video)

Young soybeans, like this one, handle frost better than plants at VC and older because they are closer to the ground, allowing them to benefit from soil warmth, and they have thicker, waxy cotyledons. This plant is going to do fine.

(Crop-Tech Consulting)

Once you’ve assessed damage, the questions then are, how many beans survived, and how uniform a stand remains?

Replant decisions, Ferrie emphasizes, should be based on surviving plant counts and uniformity, not on first impressions the morning after a frost. That will take a few days to assess.

Why Risk Planting Soybeans In March?

Ferrie addressed the broader strategy that put March-planted beans at risk in the first place — and why many growers benefit from planting early.

“Guys ask me why plant beans in March, when you can plant them April 15,” Ferrie says. “If you can plant them April 15, not much is gained. But if you get rained out at May 1 or later, you could definitely miss the early flowering window.”

That early flowering window, he notes, remains a key driver of soybean yield potential. The risk of frost is the tradeoff.

“So that risk of early planting and dealing with frost and the need to help them up with a hoe and things like that, that always needs to be weighed against missing the early flowering window,” he says.

Go Time For Planting More Soybeans

Ferrie says the next few days are a green light for planting soybeans in central Illinois.

“If you don’t have your full-season beans planted by April 24, you may want to switch to your shorter-season beans, giving them a better chance at early flowering. Our early flowering window is closing for these full-season beans,” he adds.

The freeze may claim some of the earliest soybeans, but Ferrie insists growers still have tools to protect yield — from switching maturities as key dates approach to making informed replant calls based on stand counts and plant response.

Younger soybeans typically handle the cold and frost better.

“Population is, here at the campus, the last emerging beans, still in the cotyledon stage, are in good shape,” he says. “And the beans that we plant in the covers are protected well.”

Ferrie’s message to farmers this week is clear: get out and assess your crop, but don’t rush to replant. “By the end of the week, we’ll know how rough this frost damage is, and we’ll reassess replanting decisions after that,” he says.

You can watch Ferrie’s brief video on how to assess soybean damage here .

Corn, SRW Wheat Rally on Weather and Exports but is it Sustainable? Cattle Fall

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 21:31:51 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mixed on Monday.

Corn Extends Gains
Corn was higher and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week.

Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says corn got some spillover support from higher crude oil due to the closure of the Strait for Hormuz.

Corn was also following soft red winter wheat and other demand fundamentals.

“I think you’ve got pretty decent support on the ethanol consumption side. You’ve got pretty decent support from the export inspections that came out this morning. We’re still trucking along at 31%, 32% above year ago on shipments. World stocks usage ratio is still pretty snug in corn. So it’s kind of keeping it from going down,” he says.

Weather in Focus?
He says the market was gearing up for planting progress with some talk of delays due to wet conditions in some areas of the corn belt.

“I think we’re talking about weather, but we’re really not trading it that much. It’s early. I mean, we’re looking at planting progress. I think the trade estimates are 11% or 12% percent complete for tonight. To me, that sounds a little tall, but could be accurate. You know, it’s important to have a decent planting progress here just because we think the yields might be lowered with less fertilizer. So you want to get it off to a good start.”

Funds Exit Longs in Corn
Funds sold nearly 55,000 contracts in the corn market as of last Tuesday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report, which is a big chunk.

What keeps them interested in holding the remaining 160,000 longs they have in the corn market or pushing above chart resistance?

“I think to get them interested, inflation is the easiest way. If you see a weak dollar, you see some stronger inflation indicators, then they want to play commodities a little more aggressively. I think the liquidation is actually pretty healthy. And you have to remember that we watch futures and options combined open interest. We’ve got those May options going off the board here fairly quickly, so that is going to make your numbers go down just because that chunk of business goes away,” he adds.

Frost Damage in Wheat
The wheat market started off higher Sunday night into early Monday in all three wheat classes and then soft red winter wheat futures held gains on concerns about frost damage over the weekend.

“You saw the overnight reaction was pretty positive and then we faded it. I think the the problem is it’s really hard to quantify frost damage. Sometimes you can’t see it and it shows up you know, a week or two later. I mean, if the flag leaf gets frozen and it’s wilted already, that’s easy. But a lot of it tends to be a little more subtle than that. You really can’t show it for two or three weeks. It would be obviously more vulnerable at the end of the month than it is in the middle of the month from a maturity standpoint.”

Plus, he says it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact situation because the market was talking about cold temperatures a week ago.

Hard red winter wheat was up 45 cents last week as well so that class of wheat ended slightly lower seeing some profit taking and spread unwinding.

More Weather Premium Needed in Wheat Prices?
So does the wheat market have enough weather premium or is there more upside potential?

Brugler is optimistic about a continued rally. “I think there is some upside price there. You’re in the time of the year when the global supply is the tightest. The supply is driven heavily by Northern hemisphere harvest. So when you get into April and May, you’re getting into the bottom of the barrel from a global perspective. Typically, that helps the U.S. exports a little bit because we’re sort of the supplier of last resort. World trade is complicated, of course, by the Middle East situation and what Russia is able to do and not able to do.”

He says Russia has one port that has been having issues due to Ukrainian activity so they are under performing on their exports.

However, he thinks the market put in a nine-year cycle low last fall.

“That was expected to be late 2024, 2025. Looked like we hit that. We’ve got a little bit of an upside breakout here.”

He notes that U.S. stocks are still ample, but overall the burden of proof is now on the bears.

Old Crop Soybeans Lower Following Meal
Old crop soybeans were lower again on Monday with the meal market and as funds have slowly been exiting their long positions.

He says soybean oil has been the driver as soybeans are still struggling with the lag in exports.

“I’ve said this several times but I think the oil over time is going to outbid exports for beans and meal is just something you have to get rid of,” he adds.

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
Soybean oil was sharply higher Monday getting spillover from higher crude oil.

“Again, renewable biodiesel or renewable diesel is a big driver there,” Brugler states, “It takes a little bit more bean oil to make than the conventional biodiesel does on a replacement basis. You know, that’s part of the U.S. energy security. I mean, we’re a net exporter of LNG.
We’re a net exporter of crude oil right now. We’re actually benefiting from the interruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, even though you can’t see it in the consumer prices because, you know, the world overall is tight. But bean oil is our buffer there through the biodiesel mechanism,” he explains.

Cattle Fade COF on Technical Selling
Cattle futures opened higher on Monday but could not hold early gains even with the constructive USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Brugler says the market saw technical selling as it got overbought after making all-time highs last week and needs fresh bullish news to continue to rally.

“We bought some $250 cash two weeks ago here and the $248 looks like that was the bulk of the trade last week. Your box beef’s holding up fairly well that’s going to be the main driver is will the consumer pay for the beef?’

He says the Cattle on Feed report did hint at a little heifer retention, with a 1% drop in the percentage of heifers in the feedlot.

“But nobody’s really buying into that given the dry conditions in the plains as far as any major cattle cycle reversal here.”

Did the Market Top Last Week?
Cash trade was slightly lower at $248.02 on the five area weighted average last week, down $.36.

So unless cash trade can move back higher have the cash and futures markets put in a top?

Brugler says, “Many have died trying to call a market top. There’s been a number of them over the last six months where people have said that. But what we don’t have is the actual biology. We don’t have an increase in feeder supplies. We’re not going to get one for a while. The screw worm situation is still a problem in Mexico. So you’re not going to supplement the supply through the Mexican inventory anytime soon, I don’t think.”

He adds that the number will typically get tighter before they get looser.

“In other words, once the cycle turns, you start diverting heifers to pasture, you tighten up those feeder supplies even further, and that translates to a later peak in the fats. The board action doesn’t always agree with that scenario, looking back over 10 or 12 cattle cycles, just because it gets ahead of itself. But the cash market pretty much tracks it,” he adds.

Hogs Bounce After Nine Down Days
Lean hog futures finally saw a bounce after nine lower closes and new lows for the move on Friday but is it sustainable?

Bruger says, “I think it’s a dead cat bounce, whether it’s a one-day, two-day, three-day. After the size of the drop we had, it could be a little larger. The market’s got May futures deliveries coming up here. We’ve still got a little bit of time, but you are going to track somewhat with where the CME index and where the pork cutouts are.”

Two Essential Factors For Preserving Corn & Soybean Quality In On-Farm Storage

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 21:17:52 GMT

As harvest finishes up, a high-stakes management process is getting underway inside countless on-farm grain bins. Farmers are working to keep corn and soybean crops in good condition until marketing opportunities hopefully improve.

Two key factors farmers will need to manage throughout the months ahead are temperature and moisture. Here is a number of recommendations Extension specialist offer to help growers in the process:

Temperature: A Guardian Of Grain Quality
Managing temperature in the bin is a cornerstone of effective grain storage. By carefully managing temperature levels, Ken Hellevang says farmers can significantly extend the quality of their stored grain and minimize the chance for incurring losses over winter.

“I like to say that for every 10 degrees that we cool the grain, we double the storage life,” notes Hellevang, emeritus professor of agriculture and biosystems engineering at North Dakota State University.

According to Iowa State University Extension , the ideal temperature range for storing grain during winter is between 30° F and 40° F.

If grain drops below 30° F, the risk of freezing and forming large chunks increases, which can cause problems when trying to empty the bin later, adds Reagan Tibbs , University of Illinois Commercial Agriculture Educator.

Monitoring and managing the grain temperature is a critical piece of grain storage, emphasizes Hellevang, who addressed the topic on a recent Crop Science Podcast Show .

He says maintaining an optimal temperature offers a couple of critical benefits:
1. Spoilage prevention: Hellevang says temperature variations within the grain mass can create convection currents, leading to moisture migration and spoilage. Consistent temperature control helps maintain grain quality by minimizing the risks associated with moisture buildup and heat retention.

2. Insect control: Most insect activity significantly decreases below 55°F, and insects typically enter dormancy at temperatures below 50°F, Hellevang says.

“For those farmers in the northern country, where we have cold temperatures, if we bring the temperature down to freezing or even a little below that, we can actually kill insects,” he adds.

Aeration should be done routinely throughout the winter to maintain cool and even temperatures in the bin, according to Iowa State University Extension . Uneven temperatures in the grain bin can occur when the grain mass isn’t cool enough going into winter, resulting in cooler grain along the bin walls and warmer grain in the core. This temperature difference can cause convection currents that deposit moisture on the grain surface, causing spoilage and crusting.

Other reasons for uneven temperatures in the bin include solar heating of grain under the roof and along the bin walls, as well as heating from insect and mold activity. Iowa State recommends leveling the grain surface to improve aeration and prevent issues caused by accumulated fines by spreading grain or coring the bin .

University of Minnesota Extension recommends covering fans when they are off to prevent severe weather and temperature changes from affecting the bin. Covers made of canvas, tarp, or even plywood can be used for this purpose.

Moisture Management Is Essential
Hellevang likes to remind farmers that there’s a difference between market moisture and storage moisture.

For corn, he says the market moisture is about 15.5%. But corn going into long-term storage, at or beyond 6 months, needs to be maintained at 13% to 14% moisture.

“We also need to be a little concerned about not getting grain too dry, because the drier it gets, the more brittle it becomes, and we see more breakage issues,” he says, adding: “The market really doesn’t reward you for bringing in 10% moisture corn. They’d like to be handling that 13%, 14% moisture corn.”

Hellevang adds that every region of the country is a “little different” on what they find are ideal moisture levels for grain in storage.

As part of maintaining ideal temperature and moisture levels, Tibbs tells farmers to keep an eye on potential moisture migration in the bin.

“What can happen is when the temperature difference between the outside and inside the grain bin exceeds 20° F, the moisture content in the bin can increase toward the top. That raises the risk of grain crusting, which can reduce grain quality and pose safety concerns when checking bins,” Tibbs explains.

Monitor Grain Throughout The Storage Period
Hellevang suggests checking stored grain every two weeks. While checking on the grain, measure and record the grain temperature and moisture content. Rising grain temperature may indicate insect or mold problems. Insect infestations can increase from being barely noticeable to major infestations in three to four weeks when the grain is warm, he adds.

Checking the grain moisture content is important because moisture measurements at harvest may have been in error due to moisture gradients in the kernel, grain temperature, and other factors. When checking the moisture content of stored grain, Hellevang advises following the manufacturer’s procedure for obtaining an accurate moisture measurement.

Your next read: Anhydrous Ammonia: One Small Mistake Can Have Life-Changing Consequences

Frost Forecast Threatens Corn And Soybeans This Week

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 11:32:47 GMT

Frost isn’t a four-letter word, but it sure seems like one at this point in the growing season, when corn and soybeans are packing on starch and finalizing yield.

Brett Walts, meteorologist with BAMWX.com, predicts a potential frost for multiple days now for parts of the north-central U.S. and southern Canada. He says this is the earliest he has ever forecast freezing temperatures.

“Much of North Dakota is under that risk, and northern parts of Minnesota as well. For central Wisconsin I wouldn’t 100% roll out the risk in outlying and low-lying areas, even into parts of South Dakota and southern Minnesota,” Walts tells Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk.

We continued to be concern about frost risks in the N. Plains and Upper-Midwest later this week into the weekend.

Latest blend forecast for Thursday, Saturday and Sunday indicate multi-day risk and *typically* these trend cooler with time. pic.twitter.com/rarcKEGgCK
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) September 2, 2025

A corn-killing freeze occurs when temperatures dip to 32 degrees Fahrenheit for four hours or 28 degrees for minutes, according to an online article by University of Minnesota Extension. A killing freeze can still happen with temperatures above 32, especially in low and unprotected areas when there’s no wind.

How much corn yield could be lost to freeze is tough to predict, but it could be significant, according to Troy Deutmeyer, Pioneer field agronomist.

“It is extremely difficult to predict but corn around half-milk line that dies will have yields cut around 10% according to older studies. With today’s late-season grain fill and kernel flex I feel the number is closer to 15%,” he says in a post to X. See his full comments below.

How much yield will premature death in my corn cut yield???

It is extremely difficult to predict but corn around half milk line that dies will have yields cut around 10% according to older studies. With today's late season grain fill and kernel flex I feel the number is closer… pic.twitter.com/U97lfOU6uy
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) September 2, 2025

“Between the fourth [of September] and the eighth, it’s going to be pretty consistently down into the 30s and 40s for temperature lows in that region,” Walts says.

Timing-wise, Walts anticipates the frost threat is a multi-day risk, moving in by late tonight or early Thursday and staying through Sunday.

Corn Is Vulnerable In Cold, Wet Conditions

“We’d talked about how the corn crop needs some cooler temperatures, but these are not the kind of cooler temperatures we were talking about, that’s for sure – especially up in North Dakota, northern South Dakota, into central Minnesota,” Flory says.

Freeze damage in corn near Nicollet, Minn., that occurred Sept. 13, 2014. Notice how the corn leaves appear water-soaked.

(University of Minnesota Extension)

“There’s a lot of corn up there that could still benefit from a lot more growing season,” he adds “If we get into this prolonged period ofcold temperatures, even if we don’t see a frost, it can have a negative impact on the yield potential up there. No question about that.”

Walts says as the calendar moves past Sept. 10, temperatures will moderate for several days, but he doesn’t expect the warming trend to stay. Instead, he says it will be short-lived, with another cold front arriving in the same region around September 15.

Rain Could Add To The Frost Problem

Walts adds there is the likelihood that some of the areas under the frost watch could endure bouts of rain, though he anticipates they will be patchy.

“It’s going to be these messy, scattered showers and storms along these fronts,” he notes. “I would say areas that could pick up maybe more than a half an inch of rain will be across Minnesota, maybe northern parts of Iowa. But I think the further south and east you go across Illinois and Indiana, eastern Missouri, the messier that it is, and more likely some areas will be skipped over.”

Some of the skipped over regions include the far Northwest and West, both of which are likely to remain rain-free over the next week, Walts adds.

His complete forecast is available on AgriTalk here:

Your next read: Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

Ken Ferrie: Lethal Low Temperatures and Frost Delivered Deadly Blows in Illinois Corn and Soybeans

Thu, 27 Apr 2023 20:14:52 GMT

Corn and soybeans took it on the chin from a one-two punch of low temperatures and frost earlier this week in central Illinois, says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

Reports are coming into his office from area farmers who saw temperatures fall into ranges between 26°F and 31°F.

Early-Planted Beans Were Bashed

Soybean crops planted between April 3 and April 10 were hit the hardest as they were caught in temperature ranges below 28°F.

“It was a non-discriminating freeze, taking out our beans ranging from the unifoliate stage to those just breaking through the ground,” Ferrie reports in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast.

A killing freeze is considered to be 28°F and lower for growing tissue that has emerged, says Mark Licht, Iowa State University Extension cropping systems specialist.

The lower the temperature and the longer it stays low, usually the deadlier it is for the crop. But even a light freeze can be harsh on newly emerged soybeans, because their growing point is based at the top of the plants.

That’s not the case for corn. Its growing point stays below the soil surface until about the five-leaf stage (V5), which provides it with some protection from weather.

Even so, emerged corn crops in the Bloomington, Ill., area didn’t completely dodge death by freeze this week, either.

“Corn at the V1 stage was blown off at the ground line,” Ferrie says.

Frosts Vary In Intensity And Damage

Part of the problem likely had to do with how long the low temperatures persisted, says Bob Nielsen, Purdue University Extension emeritus agronomist.

“Corn can often survive a ‘simple’ frost event, wherein the exposed leaf tissue is damaged by the frost but the growing point is not exposed to truly lethal temperatures,” he explains here . “Lethal cold temperatures (28°F or less), on the other hand, can kill the growing point even if the growing point is still below ground.”

Frost that blankets dry fields has a more debilitating impact on corn because dry soils allow frost to reach deeper into the profile.

“If you had some rain after planting that would lessen the risk,” Ferrie says. “The corn at the higher risk would be in the dry areas and for anyone who planted into tilled or strip-tilled soil and used spike closing wheels. Now, if you firmed the soil over the seed with rubber or cast iron closing wheels, that should have helped keep that seed protected.”

Assess Damage And Make A Plan

Now, Ferrie says farmers affected by the frost this week need to get into fields and make accurate counts to determine what crops are dead and evaluate what survived.

“Make your replant decision based on the actual live plants that survived, and don’t replant a field just because the crop looks bad,” he advises.

Assessing Soybeans Post-Frost: In some cases, it is pretty obvious a soybean is dead but not always. If the cotyledons or hypocotyl have been severely damaged as in Photo 1 (brown, water-soaked, soft or sunken tissue), the plant is clearly dead, says Michael Staton, Michigan State University Extension soybean educator, here .

Staton advises looking at a frost-hit soybean crop at about five days post-event to start your evaluation process.

To be sure of what you’re dealing with, Ferrie says to check the soybean stem right below the cotyledon node for firmness.

“If the stem is soft, count this plant in the dead column no matter what the cotyledons look like,” Ferrie says. “If the stem is firm, there’s probably a 90% chance you’re OK, but you’ll have to wait for new growth out of that node to be sure that node is alive.”

It will take about 70 to 90 Growing Degree Units (GDUs) before you’ll be able to see that kind of growth. In central Illinois, Ferrie says that will likely be at least next Friday (May 5), before the picture will be clear to you.

Staton says if the entire cotyledons, or even the lower half of the cotyledons, and hypocotyl appear undamaged (firm with normal color), look for signs of new growth. “The new growth, if any, will occur at the main growing point or the axillary buds located at the base of the cotyledons,” he says here.

The plant in Photo 2 is alive and viable as evidenced by the new growth emerging from both the main growing point and the axillary buds. The plant in Photo 3 is also viable even though the main growing point appears to be dead, the axillary buds are producing new growth.

Staton advises looking at a frost-hit soybean crop at about five days post-event to start the evaluation process.

Assessing Corn Post-Frost: Ferrie says corn frozen at the ground level has a decent chance of coming back from frost, because the growing point is still below ground. For central Illinois farmers, he expects you’ll be able to see new growth – if any will occur – by next Friday, May 5.

“Pest teams, check the cornfields where the spikes were within a quarter inch of the surface and look for spike damage,” he advises. “It’ll show up as discoloration on that spike. If that spike got freeze damage, it will want to split open. If it experienced freeze damage, the plant will want to leaf out underground. Now this again won’t happen until we get some heat next week.”

If that’s what you find, Ferrie says there isn’t anything that can be done except to get realistic stand counts and projected ear counts for replant decisions.

It can be tricky to determine whether a crop warrants the time and cost required for replanting, or whether you should just stick with whatever crop is still viable in the field.

Ferrie’s team at Crop-Tech Consulting, Heyworth, Ill., has put together a easy-to-use 2023 Corn Replant Decision Tool here to help farmers make the replant call.

In addition, you can listen to this week’s Boots In The Field podcast and get Ferrie’s complete recommendation:

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USDA Confirms Planters Have Started Rolling in Every State Except North Dakota, South Dakota

Forecasts Now Point to Tighter Windows to Plant This Week

Brutal Blast of Cold Set to Bring Widespread Freeze to the Western Corn Belt and Plains

Wed, 19 Apr 2023 18:43:48 GMT

Meteorologists say much of the country should brace for freezing temperatures this weekend and into early next week. The late April blast of cold weather doesn’t pose a big risk for the corn already planted in fields, but there are growing concerns about the potential damage to winter wheat.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the freezing temperatures could drop as far south as Texas.

“We are going to be watching at the end of this week on into next week some cold air that’s been kind of pulled up over Alaska in western North America swinging southward,” says Rippey. “And by the time we get to this weekend and on into early next week, we can easily see sub-freezing temperatures all the way down into north Texas. So, that means everybody north of that, including the northwestern half of Oklahoma, much of Kansas, all those areas should experience freezes.”

Friday night expected Kansas freezing temps. 22-27F West. 30-35F C and E. pic.twitter.com/p7M3yKjIxp
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) April 19, 2023

Rippey points out winter wheat is already heading in some of those geographies, including southern Oklahoma and parts of Texas.

“So, that is a concern where you overlap some freezing temperatures and heading winter wheat, with the part of the crop that’s even still viable, could be harmed by sub-freezing temperatures over the next few days,” says Rippey. “And unfortunately, that pattern seems like it’s going to continue. Although I think in time as we head into late April and early May, some of that colder air may spill more into the Midwest than the Great Plains. But this initial shot will deliver freezes likely as far south as at least the northern panhandle of Texas.

Rippey says he’s not as concerned about the corn crop that’s already planted since the crop either hasn’t emerged or the crop is still young enough that the growing point is below the soil.

“I think soils are warm enough to help insulate that growing point at this early stage. And as you move to the far north where it’s going to be really cold, we don’t have any corn planted yet. So I think we’ll be okay with the summer crops at this early stage,” says Rippey.

Western Belt freezing temps Friday night. pic.twitter.com/mlVKk4LYNp
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) April 19, 2023

Drew Lerner of World Weather has been keeping an eye on this weather pattern for more than a week. He originally warned about the possibility for a crop-damaging freeze late last week, but also said it was too early to see just how widespread the cold would be.

His latest forecast is colder than NOAA’s, but he points out crops may not be far enough along in potential problem areas.

“NOAA’s map is too warm, though, frost and freezes will occur southward into northern Oklahoma, southern Missouri and parts of Kentucky with Saturday’s coolest in the central Plains and Sunday’s and Monday’s coolest in the Midwest and middle Atlantic Coast States respectively,” says Lerner.

“Wheat, rye and oats are heading in the south of Oklahoma while canola is flowering. We are not expecting much more than frost in those areas, but it might be an area to watch. Most of the wheat in the lower Midwest is not far enough advanced to be impacted in a permanent negative manner,” says Lerner.

For the week ending April 16, 2023, there were 6.1 days
suitable for fieldwork, according to @USDA_NASS Winter wheat condition rated 60% very poor to poor, 26% fair, 14% good to excellent. Winter wheat jointed was 27%, behind 32% last year and 35% for the five-year average. pic.twitter.com/KkW31zYOdL
— KansasWheat (@KansasWheat) April 18, 2023

Winter wheat conditions are already in historically poor condition. Kansas’ crop is rated 60% poor to very poor, Oklahoma has 53% of the crop in the worst two categories and the Texas winter wheat crop is rated 52% poor to very poor.

“If you look at U.S. winter wheat conditions as a whole, as of April 16, we are seeing our lowest overall U.S. winter wheat conditions since the spring of 1996, and it’s really driven by these really abysmal numbers across the Central and Southern Great Plains,” says Rippey. “Right up and down the Central and Southern Great Plains everywhere, it’s almost every day that passes here, we’re losing more of this crop. Some of it never emerged. Some of it’s incredibly poorly established. And each passing day now in April, as the warmth, the wind and the dryness continue, we’re seeing lowering of those yield prospects and expectations for higher abandonment.”

From the dry weather and intense winds, to now the frigid air that could hit the crop into the weekend, winter wheat conditions continue to see weather challenges this year.

Could A Crop-Killing Frost And Freeze Event Hit Late Next Week?

Fri, 14 Apr 2023 13:10:00 GMT

A massive warmup hit areas of the country this week, including parts of South Dakota that were buried in snow before temperatures started to climb. The state along with other parts of the country now face the potential for prolonged flooding. Forecasters are also watching for the potential of widespread frost and freeze next week that could damage crops that are planted further south, including winter wheat.

Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc says a preliminary system of coolness will hit first, but he’s more concerned about the potential for wider spread frost and freeze later next week. Current models are conflicting on just how cold it will get, as well as how much of the U.S. will see the cold weather set in.

“It’s really up for debate,” says Lerner. “It’s still not set in stone. Models are not consistent with the cold. It’s definitely on the charts. Some days, we see it in two pieces, some days, we see it in one; sometimes it’s more broad-based than others. The reason why we [World Weather] feel confident that it is going to be there, though, is because this pattern has repeated about every 62 days.”

Lerner says a similar weather pattern hit in mid-October, mid-December and Mid-February. Each time, the pattern looked like an innocent cooler mass, but then as it got closer to time, it became much broader—and much colder.

“Now, don’t get ahead of me here. I’m not suggesting we’re going to see freezes in Louisiana,” says Lerner. “But we could see some significant coolness. I believe, though, the strongly negative Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) that we have right now is going to fight against the cold. So, we should limit it to the northern and central parts of the Midwest, is what I’m saying right now. And it’s not ready to be set in stone. But they may be down to northern Missouri and central Illinois, maybe even southern Indiana and southern Ohio.”

As the risk for a frost and freeze enter the picture, he says the worst-case scenario shows it’s even possible the bitter cold could extend into the Tennessee River Valley.

“So, we want to watch it pretty closely because we don’t have a good handle on how intense it is. And we do have a lot of wheat that’s moving along fairly quickly. We already had damaged corn in the lower Delta in February from the last time this pattern showed up. So, we could do more damage now because more of the crop is advanced, of course.”

Lerner says while the first hit of cooler weather will be short next week, it’s the second wave of colder weather he’s most concerned about.

“The one that comes later next week into the second weekend of the outlook will be the one that we want to watch most closely,” says Lerner.

Is Frost Headed to Your Fields this Week? Check Out this Map

Wed, 05 Oct 2022 21:57:28 GMT

Colder air is drifting toward much of the Corn Belt to end the week. It is advancing through the central U.S. and then will continue its chilly journey toward the East Coast.

The cold air is coming from Canada, says Matt Yarosewick, AgDay meteorologist. In its wake will be the possibility of a hard freeze, in areas such as North Dakota, northern Minnesota and northern South Dakota.

“Then that frost and freeze potential continues to move further to the south, including Iowa, Michigan, Wisconsin, northern Illinois and northern Indiana,” he says. “A light freeze or area-wide frost will be a possibility there on Saturday morning.”

Here’s the current frost outlook:

October Weather Outlook

Harvest progress is picking up across the U.S. As of Oct. 2, 20% of the U.S. corn crop has been harvested, which is slightly below the five-year average of 22%.

For soybeans, 22% of the crop was harvested as of Oct. 2. That’s just below the five-year average of 25% harvested by early October.

The Climate Prediction Center just released its latest outlook for October:

“The CPC forecast is very biased toward the next two weeks,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions . “The drier weather in the central U.S. and wetter conditions over the four-corners states represent the pattern through mid-month, but there is evidence the pattern could become much more active after the next two weeks.”

For the next month, Snodgrass says the most important weather feature to monitor is the position and strength of the Pacific Jet Stream.

“Most forecast models are predicting that the jet will extend farther east toward the Gulf of Alaska and resist large blocking features,” he says. “This forecast behavior is mostly due to the recent resurgence of La Niña, as the trade winds crank up again throughout October.

The most likely outcome will be an early onset of fall rain/snow in the Pacific Northwest and an increase in a fall low-pressure system development across the U.S.”

Even though the near-term forecast calls for dryness in the central U.S., Snodgrass expects an uptick in fall low-pressure systems after Oct. 10.

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