Harvest

Three Honks to Say “I Love You”

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 14:44:11 GMT

It started during harvest season a few years ago. My husband, Brett, was driving the grain truck to the local co-op, and from our rented house not far off the main road, I would watch truck after truck roll by my office window to unload their grain for the season.

I knew which trucks belonged to us — the faded blue one with the busted radio, the red-and-white one sporting the newer logo and the red-and-black semi, my personal favorite. But while I watched our trucks roll by, I couldn’t always tell who was behind the wheel. Was it Brett? My father-in-law? My brother-in-law? I was nosy and wanted to keep tabs on who was driving what.

Finally, curiosity got the best of me. One night after a long day of combining and driving trucks, I asked my husband, “How many loads did you take in today?”

In-between bites of whatever late-night dinner I flung together, he gave me his answer, then asked, “Didn’t you see me?”

Nope, not from that distance. Even with 20/20 vision and a keen eye, there was no way to tell who was behind the wheel when they were flying past at 55 mph.

The next day, I watched the road again as the trucks made their rounds. First the blue one passed, then a while later the red. Finally, the semi came around the bend on its way to town with the first load of the day. This time, though, the driver honked three times, and I found myself wondering what that was about.

A little later, I got a text from Brett while he was waiting in the grain line: “Did you see me go by with the semi? I honked three times. I said I love you.”

Our Own Little Love Language

Our poor neighbors must have been sick of the trucks rolling by that fall, especially once the “three honks” tradition began. No matter which truck came down the road, I always knew when Brett was behind the wheel because a distinctive “Honk! Honk! HONKKKK!” would ring out across County Road R.

We’ve since moved to the farm, and our house is no longer on the path to the co-op. During our first fall at the new address, I mentioned how I missed hearing those three beeps go off throughout the day. Brett cracked a smile when I told him this, and mischievously said, “Challenge accepted.”

Now, I’ll hear those three blasts echo from a pickup, a tractor or whatever rig he’s driving that day, and I just smile. Those three honks have become our little ritual. It’s simple, it’s sweet and it’s probably annoying to everyone else in the area, but it’s ours. And it’s a reminder that love doesn’t always need words, sometimes it just needs a truck rolling down the road and three short honks.

Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:12:38 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

Beyond Bushels: Align High-Yield Strategies With Your Crop Budget

Mon, 29 Dec 2025 20:30:45 GMT

A practical crop budget can serve as a valuable farming playbook, offering essential direction and guidance from planting through harvest, according to farmers and business partners David Hula and Randy Dowdy.

“Return on Investment (ROI) is the primary focus for the year ahead,” says Dowdy, who farms near Valdosta, Ga. “Everybody is trying to figure out how to survive this lean time, because we don’t have $8 corn or $15 beans.”

Start The Season Strong

For Hula, the strategy for achieving both high yields and ROI begins with selecting the right hybrids and using excellent planting practices, followed by consistent nutrition.

“You want to feel optimistic that you’re going to have high yield potential starting out,” he says. “Then, you need to make sure the crop has all the groceries it needs, because if it runs out of juice at any one time, you’ve just hit the minus button.”

Power Of Finishing The Crop

Hula highlights that another critical component of maximizing ROI, even in current tight markets, is finishing the crop well.

He shares that despite having a challenging growing season this year, his dryland acres achieved their third-best farmgate average. He attributes that to ensuring the crop received the necessary resources late in the season, especially a fungicide application.

“We felt pretty confident [the crop] was going to deliver... and that was mostly because we finished it well. We were picking 66.7 to 67 pounds test weight corn at harvest,” reports Hula, who is based near Charles City, Va.

“Finishing the crop is by far where a lot of people leave a lot of yield on the table,” adds Dowdy.

Use ‘Bushels’ To Track Costs

The current market outlook for 2026 necessitates a sharp focus on expense management, Dowdy notes.

“Obviously servicing debt is still on everybody’s mind. A farmer should never cut out anything that he or she knows makes money. But the problem is sometimes they don’t always know what that is,” he says.

When planning the budget, Hula urges growers to shift their perspective away from the cost of the input and toward the bushel return needed to justify it.

He offers, as an example: “For me to do in-furrow, that requires seven bushels. If I’m not going to get a seven-bushel return per acre, I’m not going to do it.”

Hula believes the bushel ROI mindset should be applied to all inputs. By framing decisions in terms of bushels rather than dollars, he says growers can more easily see the economic impact of each investment they make.

Make Every Input Pay Its Way

Hula and Dowdy are spending significant time this winter consulting with growers on budget strategies through their business, Total Acre . In many cases, they are stressing the importance of refining in-season input applications to make them more efficient, rather than cutting them completely.

“We can keep some of the in-season applications and make them more efficient by placement,” Dowdy says. “The goal is not merely to cut costs, but to find better, more efficient ways to invest money that directly leads to a higher ROI.”

Dowdy and Hula discuss their budgeting recommendations in more detail in their latest Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast discussion on Farm Journal TV and YouTube via the link here:

You can also hear Hula and Dowdy’s latest discussion on AgriTalk here:

Unpacking the Disappointment: 5 Reasons Some Iowa Growers Had Ho-Hum Corn Yields

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 22:43:59 GMT

A growing season that started with tremendous potential in east-central Iowa finished with yield results that left many growers in the area disappointed by average or below-average results, according to Agronomist Nicole Stecklein.

Stecklein details five key factors she believes contributed to disappointing 2025 yield results. Here are her key takeaways from this season as well as some recommendations for 2026.

1. A ‘planting date effect’ occurred: Stecklein says she is an early-plant advocate and likes to see farmers start planting when the soil is fit and a good weather forecast is in the cards.

“In eight years out of 10 years, that usually turns out pretty good. In a lot of cases, the early planted corn will be your best corn, but that wasn’t the case this year,” she says.

Early-planted corn, particularly those hybrids in early to mid-maturities, generally underperformed.

Stecklein identified two main culprits. First, there was considerable localized soil crusting. Even with rotary hoeing, significant variability in ear development and inconsistent pollination impacted the crop and contributed to yield loss.

A second culprit was that the earlier planted corn seemed to bear the brunt of later-season stresses, particularly from disease issues, heavy moisture and above-average temperatures.

Too much rain and disease were problems for Ward Hunter, Ogden, Iowa, especially southern rust. He told U.S. Farm Report’s Tyne Morgan that his early corn hybrid yields were disappointing, coming in at around 220 bu. per acre, even though he applied a fungicide.

“We were at about our APH,” he says. “If it hadn’t been for disease pressure, I think we could have been in the 270s or so [with early maturing hybrids] here in central Iowa.”

FBN Poll Results: This week's poll, with over 1,700 responses, shows 50% of participating FBN members seeing corn yields below expectations. Review the full results and share your thoughts: https://t.co/37lji8uYSc #farmersfirst #harvest25 #corn pic.twitter.com/LoijKZGnJ5
— FBN (@FBNFarmers) October 31, 2025

For farmers wondering if they should move to later planting dates across the baord in 2026, Stecklein says probably not. Instead, she says to continue to evaluate soils and weather conditions at planting.

Ken Ferrie offers similar advice to farmers in central Iowa and central Illinois. “My advice for farmers is if we have a green light in April, plant some corn,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

However, Ferrie says farmers shouldn’t be afraid to wait until May to get a green light from Mother Nature to start the planting process.

“We never know how the rest of the year will play out. So, breaking the planting window up is a good way to mitigate risk and take the jam out of the fall of having everything ready at the same time,” he explains.

2. High winds were a blow to corn performance: June brought a series of severe high-wind events to large swaths of east-central Iowa.

The damage manifested in root lodging, green snap, and willowing. Corn that had already tasseled before the winds hit fared better, thanks to better developed root systems and brace roots, Stecklein reports.

Conversely, corn that had not yet tasseled suffered the most severe root lodging and green snap, as its rapidly growing, brittle nodes were highly susceptible.

Willowing, which occurs where corn plants bend at the waist, proved to be a stealthy yield robber this summer. The stress from bending, particularly around the developing ear node, led to poorly pollinated ears with short husks, leaving grain exposed to elements, birds and disease, significantly impacting quality and yield.

Tons of sub 150 corn in our area. Harrison and Pottawattamie county Iowa. Too much wind/greensnap and too much diesese. It’s the crop that never was.
— Brandon Clark (@clarkbrandon44) November 3, 2025

While wind is an unavoidable reality across the state, Stecklein would advise farmers in consistently windy areas to consider prioritizing root and green snap scores when selecting hybrids for 2026.

“This is not a foolproof way to get around the wind. It’s just knowing that some hybrids have a lower possibility of getting hit by wind in a window when they’re vulnerable, because all corn is vulnerable. The wind is all about timing. But if you shorten that window, then you’re decreasing the chances that you’ll get hit at a vulnerable time,” she explains.

3. Heat took a bite out of yield potential. Another major factor impacting 2025 yields in east-central Iowa was the pervasive overnight heat during grain fill, specifically in July and August.

Stecklein says the general rule of thumb is for each night during grain fill that temperatures stay at 70 degrees Fahrenheit or above, your corn crop will experience about a 1% yield loss in each 24-hour period.

What happens is the result of a lack of equilibrium between the process of photosynthesis during the day and then respiration at night.

“During the day, the plant is taking sunlight and carbon dioxide and making sugars. It’s creating energy,” Stecklein explains. “Overnight, you have respiration occurring. Respiration is using energy to repair cells, And the rate of these processes is very temperature dependent.”

When nighttime temperatures remain high, the rate of respiration dramatically increases. This means the plant burns through its energy reserves much faster.

Stecklein says that in July and August, parts of east-central Iowa had 15 nights that stayed at 70 degrees or greater.

“If you’re good at math, that means a 15% yield loss. If you had 300 bushels to lose at tassel, that brings you straight down to 255, bushels, just based on overnight temperatures,” she says.

4. Disease pressure reached unprecedented levels for some farmers. The big gorilla this season was southern rust, which took most Iowa farmers by surprise.

”Southern rust is the one that everybody is talking about, because it’s so aggressive and because, honestly, in Iowa, we were not prepared for how aggressive it was going to be,” Stecklein says.

Unlike tar spot, southern rust is not a disease that overwinters in residue. It must “blow in” from the South, and it also needs corn to infect to complete its life cycle. For those reasons, Stecklein would advise Iowa farmers to not make hybrid decisions for next year based on concerns for southern rust.

However, she would advise them to take tar spot into consideration as they evaluate which hybrids to plant in 2026.

“If you are going to spray [a fungicide], you’re going to be OK if you do choose a hybrid that’s susceptible, because there are some very good hybrids out there that aren’t super tolerant to tar spot. Make sure that you’re planning on at least making one fungicide pass at tassel. But if you will not spray two passes of fungicide, do not choose a hybrid that has a very poor tar spot rating, because if we get the weather that’s very conducive to tar spot, you’re going to lose some bushels,” she adds.

5. Phantom yield loss showed up at harvest. Based on phantom yield loss data, Stecklein says there’s about 2 bushels lost per percent of moisture. How that translates into a yield loss: if you like to harvest at 22% moisture but the crop is at 16% moisture when you finally combine it, you’re looking at a loss of 12 bushels per acre.

If you find yourself consistently harvesting corn at a drier level than you want, Stecklein would say it’s time to adjust your hybrid maturities. If phantom yield loss isn’t a consistent issue you face, then you’re probably OK to stick with your current maturities.

Her final advice for 2026: “I keep wanting to say that every year I learn something unique, but at the end of the day, my key takeaways from every year have almost always been the same: if you plan for failure and if you give up, you’re going to be met with failure. However, if you are persistent through hardships and manage according to those hardships, you’re setting yourself up for success.”

Watch Stecklein’s recent video, Corn 2025: What happened , for more insights on the east-central Iowa corn results.

Harvest of a Lifetime: Farmer Sees Record Corn Yields in Southern Minnesota

Wed, 22 Oct 2025 01:43:52 GMT

In Southern Minnesota farmers are done with the soybean harvest and are quickly moving through corn with the help of Mother Nature.

While the corn crop in other areas of the Corn Belt has fallen short of the hype, that wasn’t the case for Mike Madsen of Heron Lake, who was in a garden spot. “We seen things we’ve never seen on yield monitors before,” he said.

This fall, Madsen is having the corn harvest of a lifetime. “It’ll be the best year in my career and I think in a lot of local farmers careers that have been farming for 30 or 40 years,” Madsen said.

Record Corn Yields Started at Planting

Madsen says it began this spring with one of the fastest planting seasons ever on his farm. “It was early and it was quick,” explains Madsen. “So, that just that’s how this yield thing started was with our early planting, especially in the corn.”

That lead to a perfect stand, followed by a nearly ideal agronomic growing season.

Perfect Growing Season

“We only dream of seasons like this where you get a shot of rain every four to five days,” adds Madsen. “That pretty much held true from planting through corn pollination.”

Madsen says the corn also escaped the hot nighttime temperatures during pollination and fill that hurt test weights and yields in other areas of the Corn Belt.

“Our nighttime temperatures are what I think brings on a lot of this yield,” said Madsen. “We were under that 70 degree mark all but a couple nights in August.”

Corn Dodged Disease Pressure

Southern Minnesota farmers were also able to dodge some of the heavy disease pressure in corn like Southern Rust thanks to the added protection of fungicides.

“The early sprayed corn is [seeing] a 10 to 20 bushel increase,” explains Madsen. “If you sprayed later then there is an even better return. There’s been some talk of a 30 to 70 bushel increase from spraying fungicide this year.”

Record Corn Yields at 250 Plus

Madsen’s corn yields at harvest are 20 to 30 bushels over his Actual Production History or APH, with even the early maturities exceeding expectations.

“Our 100 day and under was running 220 to 240,” counts Madsen. “As we get into harvest, now we’re into our later corn, which is anywhere from 100 to even up to 110 day maturity. We’re seeing 250 bushels plus.”

So, 2025 will go down in history as a record corn yield on the Madsen farm. And with those kind of results across the lower third of the state, he thinks Minnesota’s statewide corn yield could even top Iowa and Illinois this year.

Corn is Dry

Early corn was also dry at 15% to 16% moisture, the later corn is a bit wetter but it will save him on drying costs.
“The 100 to 110 days are between 17% and 18%,” Madsen said. “We can manage that in the grain bins with some air on it.” Which is good as he’s storing most of his corn and soybean crop this fall due to the low prices.

Soybean Yields Disappointing

Madsen’s soybean harvest was done on October 9. He says his crop missed key August rains and saw early disease pressure from white mold tied to early planting. While bean yields were well above average in his area, they were disappointing on his farm.

“Yields were around 60 bushels per acre and we were a little bit under that and so it wasn’t a total train wreck,” said Madsen. “It was way better than last year so we’ll take it.”

$9 Soybeans, Record Yields, Rising Costs: Minnesota Farmers Brace for Another Year of Tight Margins

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 20:16:02 GMT

As harvest rolls across Minnesota, farmers are seeing strong yields in both corn and soybeans. But those big harvests come with an old problem — low prices and limited storage. During a recent University of Minnesota U.S. Farm Report College Roadshow stop in Minneapolis, experts Ed Usset, grain marketing specialist, and Pauline Van Nurden, Extension economist with the university’s Center for Farm Financial Management, break down what this means for farm profitability heading into 2025.

Soybean Storage Challenges — and the Corn Problem Coming Next

The conversation began with a topic dominating coffee shops and grain elevators across the Midwest: soybean storage. Reports earlier in the season hinted at a “soybean pileup,” with the governor even joking farmers might have to start putting soybeans in their garages.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz warned trade war-related tariffs and a record harvest meant “there’s going to be soybeans in garages, on the streets, wherever we can put them because there’s nowhere to go”. He specifically blamed President Donald Trump’s trade policies for creating “a man-made farm crisis” that has financially harmed Minnesota farmers.

However, Usset says farmers did find room for the crop.

“Well, I’m kind of surprised,” Usset says. “A couple of weeks ago, I really was concerned that we wouldn’t find a home for all the soybeans. But I’m talking to people in the country — they found a place for them. They’re in storage. They’re holding out.”

While the majority of Minnesota farmers have found a home for their soybeans this fall, futures prices are about the same as this point last year, however, it’s cash prices in the upper Midwest that are suffering.

“Prices are not good. Probably around $9.25 a bushel in much of southern Minnesota,” he explains. “But we found room for the soybeans. The problem, I think, is going to be in the next couple of weeks because a lot of space was dedicated to soybeans. Where does the corn go? We’re gonna have corn piles.”

Record Yields Add to the Surplus

Despite the logistical headaches, Minnesota farmers are seeing some of their best yields in years.

“I think we’re seeing good yields in soybeans,” Usset says. “There’s a good chance in Minnesota we’ll set a state record for average soybean yields. Not by a lot — you know, 52 bushels [per acre] is our record. I like to think we have a shot at 53 for a state average.”

Corn yields are also impressive.

“We have an outside shot to top 200 bushels an acre for the state,” Usset adds.

Those high yields, however, come at a time when input costs remain elevated and prices have failed to rebound.

A Difficult Year for Farm Income

According to Van Nurden, Minnesota farmers are still feeling the financial strain from last year— the lowest farm income in two decades.

“Unfortunately for crop farmers, it looks like more of the same,” she says. “Low prices, even with the better yields, but input costs are up.”

This situation isn’t new for Minnesota farmers. Even though China has backed off from buying U.S. soybeans, farmers also faced low-to-negative farm incomes last year. According to University of Minnesota analysis , Minnesota farm incomes declined again in 2024, falling to the lowest level this century.

In the data from the University of Minnesota and Minnesota State, it showed the median net farm income for Minnesota farms dropped to $21,964 in 2024, marking the lowest level this century. The drop was due to falling crop prices, coupled with below-trendline crop yields.

Van Nurden notes some relief came at the end of the year from the ECAP payments that had been issued.

“That payment was helpful — it provided some cash. But we actually included that income in last year’s numbers on the balance sheet as an accounts receivable,” she explains. “So it looks to be another challenging year for crop producers, with losses per acre on corn and soybean production.”

Payments Help, But “They’re Just a Band-Aid”

The conversation turned to the ongoing debate over government support payments for farmers, especially as uncertainty continues around trade policy and federal budgets.

“Something’s needed,” Van Nurden says. “I know farmers would rather be able to sell their crop at a profitable price and not receive payments, of course. Payments are a band-aid. Hopefully we can find new solutions to help replace markets, find new markets, all of that. But payments would be helpful at this challenging time.”

Trade Tensions Still Haunting Soybean Markets

For soybean growers, the trade relationship with China continues to cast a long shadow. Reports this week suggest China is intentionally avoiding purchases of U.S. soybeans — an echo of the trade war that hit markets hard in 2018 and 2019.

When asked whether that business might be lost for good, Usset says that’s a tough question.

“We had a trade war in 2018, 2019. We got by it, got a change in administration, and we got the sales back. I guess if I want to be hopeful, we can hope it comes back again,” Usset says.

Cutting Costs — One Small Step at a Time

Looking ahead to 2026, both experts agree managing costs will be critical as input prices continue to rise. Van Nurden says farmers are focusing on the small things.

“It’s probably little things across the board — trying to make smart decisions, manage the inputs where they can,” she says. “I don’t know that it’s going to be one place. I think it’s going to be lots of little places and just trying to manage and be very intentional about inputs and deferring repairs at times, potentially, and new investments.”

But she cautiones cost-cutting comes with long-term consequences.

“That has ramifications as well,” she says. “So it’s a balance.”

Market Opportunities — and a Ray of Hope

Even in a tough price environment, Usset says there are opportunities for farmers willing to look ahead.

“Look at the big carries in the market,” he advises. “Today’s price is really terrible — pretty much as low as it’s been in the last year. But in the corn market, for example, if you looked for delivery in April or May, you’ve got a 35¢ to 40¢ premium. You’ve got a 50¢ premium to hang onto your soybeans out into the spring.”

He says similar opportunities exist for wheat.

“No one wants to talk about spring wheat,” Usset says. “But if you’ll hold out to January, you can get a 50¢ premium for wheat — 50¢ for three months. That’s how big the carry is.”

Building Support and Planning Ahead

As the year winds down, Van Nurden encourages farmers to lean on their support systems.

“Take a look and push the pencil to your finances, talk to your lender, build that support,” she says. “There’s great collaboration between the university and the state of Minnesota with some of those programs, but there are resources out there to help. Always seek out the tools or the individuals that can help you.”

In the face of strong yields but shaky profitability, Minnesota farmers continue to show resilience and resourcefulness. As Usset put it, “It might not solve all the problems — but it’s a lot better than today’s price.”

Farm Journal Survey Signals 2025 National Corn Yield Could Fall Short of 2024

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 17:53:50 GMT

The government shutdown and resulting absence of data from USDA has left a void in the volatile grain and oilseed markets. To fill the gap, Farm Journal conducted a survey to get an update on yields and harvest progress as well as other important topics on producers’ minds.

Based on more than 1,100 qualified responses from across the U.S., the biggest takeaway is that corn yields are estimated to be down compared with USDA’s September estimates in six of the seven Pro Farmer Crop Tour states. Due to disease pressure and dryness, the 2025 national corn yield could be lower than the 2024 average of 179.3 bu.

(Farm Journal)

As of mid-October, yields are steady or lower for 74% of the respondents across the Crop Tour states, a far cry from higher production estimates for each state in USDA’s September Crop Production Report, says Lane Akre, Pro Farmer economist. Traders and analysts saw production falling from the September USDA estimate of 186.7 bu. per acre to 185 bu., according to a pre-report poll from Bloomberg in early October. If production does shrink, as the Farm Journal survey indicates, the national average yield could fall to 178.5 bu. per acre.

When compared to 2024, the Farm Journal survey shows the biggest yield decline in the “I” states:

Illinois at 7%
Indiana at 4.6%
Iowa at 3.2%

On the other hand, Minnesota at 3.8% and South Dakota at 3.3% are seeing yields come in higher than last season.

Soybean Harvest Progress Well Ahead of Corn
Corn harvest progress is on par with other private estimates at 43% on Oct. 15.

(Farm Journal)

Soybean harvest is well ahead at 79% due to dry conditions.

“While we aren’t getting the weekly crop progress reports, they are still calling and the analyst average this week was 60%,” Akre says.

(Farm Journal)

Storage Issues Especially Challenging in Northern Plains
Just over a third of all respondents in Farm Journal’s survey noted storage concerns as many producers are opting to store grain rather than take it to market. Storage issues are more prevalent in the northern Plains, with 56% of producers in South Dakota saying they are facing issues.

(Farm Journal)

With China absent from the export market and soybean yields strong, basis levels in the northwestern Corn Belt have widened to levels not seen since the 2018 trade war. Storage piles are already stacking up at local elevators.

“We’re just a week into harvest and already seeing more piles than we have seen in years past,” says Kevin Deinert, a farmer from Mount Vernon, S.D. “If you look at total production and total storage capacity, we’re going to exceed our storage capacity by a considerable amount.”

Typically, farmers in the Dakotas sell soybeans right off the combine, but this year many are holding onto their crop, hoping for better prices down the road.

“The basis on corn is not great either, but it’s exceptionally bad on soybeans,” explains Todd Hanten of Goodwin, S.D. “I’m going to store it all and try to capture some better basis in the future.”

David Struck, a farmer from Wolsey, S.D., is also storing beans with the hope come January and February, he’ll be able to move them and get a better price.

Based on CoBank estimates, the nation will be short 73 million bushels of upright grain storage this year, a dramatic shift from last year’s surplus.

“When you pull out to the 12 major corn-producing states, and that includes soybeans, we’re going to be short by about 1.4 billion bushels of storage capacity,” says Tanner Ehmke, CoBank’s grain and oilseeds economist. “Last year, we were long by about 360 million bushels.”

Farmers Still Support Tariffs
Despite the ongoing trade war with China, which has weighed heavily on row-crop prices, more than 60% of respondents say they support tariffs. Many are hopeful that aggressive trade policies will pay dividends once it is all said and done.

(Farm Journal)

Green Stem Syndrome Poses Tough Harvest Choices for Soybean Growers

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 18:09:10 GMT

Soybean growers have been calling Ben Pieper the past couple of weeks, telling him how tough their bean crop is to cut this harvest. The problem many are citing – green stem syndrome.

“I’ll have somebody in Iowa tell me that ‘these are the best beans I’ve ever had on the farm, and they cut beautifully, and are absolutely phenomenal,’” says Pieper, an agronomist for Merschman Seeds. “Then, with the same exact bean two hours to the east, the growers are dissatisfied with them, saying they cut hard, and aren’t yielding quite as high as maybe a different bean that we have in the lineup.”

University of Minnesota Extension notes green stem syndrome is a tricky issue for agronomists and growers to address, as the exact cause is unknown. That makes the problem difficult to prevent or address effectively in-season, and impacts harvest decisions.

Taylor Dill says the disorder contributes to a delay in crop senescence (maturation) of plant stems while pods and seeds mature and ripen normally – a so-called “source to sink” issue in the plant.

How this problem develops: Stems and leaves (the sources) typically send nutrients to the pods and beans (the sinks). But when stress reduces pod or bean development or causes them to abort, the nutrients and moisture get stuck in the stems and don’t get allocated well. That keeps the stems green even after the beans are ready to harvest, explains Dill, a PhD student at Ohio State University, in a video .

Two Basic Options For Soybean Harvest
While green stem syndrome might not contribute to direct yield losses, harvesting affected soybeans turns into a slow, hard slog for growers, contributing to increased fuel and harvesting equipment maintenance costs.

Farmers with fields impacted by the syndrome have two basic options at harvest, according to Shaun Casteel, Purdue Extension soybean specialist, on the latest episode of the Purdue Crop Chat podcast .

One option is to go ahead and harvest the beans when the grain quality is likely at at its best.

The downside, says Casteel, “We have the nasty combination of around 9% to 10% moisture in beans with green stems and have to slow down the harvest.”

The tough going in fields means you’re likely to use more fuel and put extra wear and tear on the combine.

Your second option is to wait until a freeze and the stems turn brown before harvesting. The downside? You might lose a fair amount of yield.

“I’ve seen this week where we had some early beans where the pods are opening up and the seeds just shattered,” Casteel says. “It’s just a mechanism of survival because [the pod is] trying to save itself. If your fields weren’t ready yet, that’s probably not going to be the case, but if we catch another cycle of rain, or we get into these two to three cycles of wet-dry, wet-dry, that pod really gets to the point of shattering in the field before the combine even gets there.”

Mark Licht, Extension cropping systems specialist at Iowa State University encourages growers to harvest when soybeans have a good moisture content, despite the tough conditions.

“Make sure the sickle bar on the combine is sharp and well-maintained,” he says, in an online article . “Slower harvest speeds will be needed to account for more soybean biomass coming through the combine.”

A poll by Reuters estimated 58% of U.S. soybeans had been harvested as of Sunday, Oct. 12.

Some soybean varieties might be at more risk than others to green stem syndrome.

(Soybean Research & Information Network)

What Factors Contributed To The Syndrome This Season?
Pieper, citing University of Minnesota research, says there are a lot of theories about the causal effects of green stem syndrome — everything from plant viruses, low soil moisture, and potassium deficiency, to high plant populations, genetic mutations and insect damage.

He says he believes many of those issues are factors and that heavy stink bug feeding has been another significant contributor to the problem this year.

“There is a crap ton of stink bugs and grasshoppers and insects in the chaff,” says Pieper who has observed the pests’ impact on soybean crops while doing yield checks.

Environmental stressors, drought in particular, were another contributing factor this season in Ohio soybeans, adds Dill.

Farmers often ask agronomists whether fungicide use is involved in the development of green stem syndrome.

Ohio State Extension reports certain modes of action can have a “stay green” effect on soybeans that can delay senescence and can be confused or contribute to green stem.

Pieper and his colleagues might be on the fence with that finding. They note in their podcast, Cup Of Joe , that fungicides contributed to soybean yield benefits this year – especially on marginal ground – with increases of 7 to 10 bushels per acre in some cases.

Bottom line, there are conflicting views regarding the role of fungicides in the disorder and more research is needed to pin down a definitive answer.

Your next read: New Seed Treatment Offers A Solution to Soybean Cyst Nematode

No More Waiting: Operator-Free Grain Cart System Improves Harvest Efficiency

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 15:48:39 GMT

At first blush, the benefits promised by new autonomous retrofit grain cart system, OutRun, seemed too good to be true to Ken Ferrie and his agronomic team.

The system, now commercially available, promises to help farmers increase harvest efficiencies while reducing labor needs in the process.

Ferrie and team’s skepticism quickly turned to appreciation as they put the system to work harvesting large-scale Farm Journal Test Plots in central Illinois.

“Once it’s in the field, it’s kind of like a dog with a shock collar,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist. “It can’t leave the field, meaning that there’s a GPS fence around that field that keeps it from leaving that defined area.”

OutRun, developed by PTx Trimble (formed by AGCO and Trimble), enables a tractor and auger cart to team up and move autonomously to catch a combine on the go.

The system uses Starlink connectivity and PTx Trimble location technology, while the combine’s guidance and steering system remains unchanged. Field boundaries loaded into the OutRun system keep the cart/tractor team where it needs to be.

Less Manpower Potentially Required
Nebraska farmer Geoffrey Ruth says he is pumped about the practicality and ease-of-use of driverless grain cart automation. The opportunity to reduce manpower needs or redeploy a worker is especially appealing.

“We’re usually pretty short on labor at harvest time, so we’re looking to purchase one outright and take that operator and throw them in a semi to haul grain,” Ruth says in this recent article by Farm Journal’s Matthew Grassi: Smart Harvest: How One Farmer Is Hitting Harvest Windows, Helping Others With Grain Cart Tech

As Ruth and Ferrie quickly learned, the grain cart can be staged or called for unloading without the need for another driver.

Once full, the combine operator can then send the grain cart to a predefined truck unload zone for unloading. An operator is still needed, however, to unload the cart into a truck.

“Once you get a full tank, you call for the cart, and the cart will pull up beside the combine and unload on the go for you, or you could stage it at the end, so it’s waiting for you when you get there,” says Ferrie, whose agronomic team at Crop-Tech Consulting are running the system.

The truck driver can then disengage the cart, fill the truck and then reengage the cart so the combine operator can take control of the system again.

“Your combine operator can put the cart anywhere he wants it to go,” Ferrie says. “If you’ve got tile holes, terraces, or other places in the field you don’t want that cart to go, the combine operator can draw those areas on the screen and tell it, ‘these are no-go areas,’ so it doesn’t get itself into trouble.”

Ruth adds that the system also knows where the farmer already cut corn and will use that area as a path instead of mowing over crops that haven’t been harvested yet. It’s similar to how a drone already knows the safe path home when the pilot hits return to home on the controller.

OutRun is currently available for model year 2014 or newer John Deere 8R tractors with Infinitely Variable Transmission (IVT) and will be commercially available on Fendt models in 2026.

You can learn more about PTx Trimble’s OutRun system at www.OutRunAg.com

Government Shutdown Blocks Key Cash Flow Tool for Farmers at a Critical Time

Wed, 15 Oct 2025 10:55:41 GMT

As the federal government shutdown continues, farmers across the country are facing mounting financial strain due to their inability to access marketing loans — a critical cash flow tool during harvest season.

Many producers typically use USDA’s marketing assistance loan program in the fall, pledging their harvested grain as collateral in exchange for a short-term, low-interest loan. The funds help pay down operating loans and maintain relationships with lenders while farmers wait for potentially higher market prices later in the year. But with USDA offices closed during the shutdown, this option has suddenly disappeared.

“It sort of takes away a tool that was on the table for them to be able to pay off or pay down those operating notes in the fall and keep a good relationship with their lender,” says Mykel Taylor, professor and interim department head of Agricultural Economics & Rural Sociology at Auburn University. “Now you’ve got the situation where they don’t have the ability to do that. And so they’re going to continue accruing interest on those operating notes.”

Grantham Farms has been in operation in Georgia for more than 40 years, but the government shutdown is grinding many key USDA services they rely on to a halt.@SenatorWarnock & @SenOssoff need to end their reckless government shutdown! pic.twitter.com/eEHVXfw46x
— House Committee on Agriculture (@HouseAgGOP) October 14, 2025

Taylor explains many producers are holding onto their crops, hoping for a winter price rally. But the margins are tight.

“They’re waiting out this fall downturn in prices hoping that this winter something will turn their way,” she adds. “But we are really, in some ways, talking about pennies when we need to be talking about quarters. We need big movements to make a difference when it comes to the breakevens for these folks. They are doing what they can, but they are in a very bad situation.”

Regional Differences and Commodity Pressures

The use of marketing loans varies across the country depending on local economics and commodity markets. For cotton producers, current price levels make the loan program particularly important.

“When we think about cotton, we’re in a situation where the cash price is in and around 60¢ a pound, the marketing loan rate is at 52¢, and it’s going to jump up to 55¢ for the 2026 crop,” Taylor says. “But our breakeven prices are 92¢ to $1 a pound. That math is not working in the farmer’s favor.”

Without access to these loans, farmers lose a vital bridge between harvest and market recovery, amplifying financial stress in a season when cash flow is critical.

Policy Uncertainty Adds Pressure

The shutdown’s timing is particularly challenging. Harvest season is when many producers rely on marketing loans the most. With USDA offices closed and no clear timeline for reopening, the longer the shutdown drags on, the more strain farmers will face heading into winter.

Taylor notes these programs are designed to provide flexibility in a volatile market environment — something the shutdown has abruptly undercut.

“They really were looking at these marketing loans as a tool to keep things on good terms with their lenders,” she says. “And that’s where they’re missing out.”

Wisconsin Farmers Battle Remnants of Big August Rain and Disease Pressure at Harvest

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 21:33:13 GMT

A slow start to the day due to drizzle is the perfect opportunity to get grain to the dryer.

“Three weeks ago we did some corn just to test everything, and it was 28% to 29% moisture,” explains Casey Kelleher, a farmer in Whitewater, Wis. “We got back into it last week, and it was down to 18%. Now we’re into some 15%, and it’s going right into the bin.”

That quick dry down is keeping their harvest pace high and trucks rolling across their on-farm scales.

“We got beans done in about a week,” Kelleher says.

Big August Rain

That quick turn followed a challenging finish for the crop, which saw a massive 11" to 13" rain in early August.

“The biggest impact we saw was in soybeans,” Kelleher says. “It brought in disease, even though we had treated with fungicide and really killed our yield. It’s still a respectable yield, but not what we were expecting going into pod fill.”

While disease took a bite out of beans, Kelleher credits that timely fungicide application for preserving the crop as he watched disease pressure ravage the corn belt.

“If you walk and look at our corn, we have tar spot,” he admits. “Iowa and southwest Wisconsin got hit with a southern rust pretty bad. We had a little bit; we were fortunate it didn’t come in until late.”

Casey Kelleher farms in Whitewater, WI

(Wyffels)

Yields Keep Pace with 2024

As their combines roll into corn this week, the yield results are proving respectable.

“I think it’ll be just a touch better than last year,” he says as 240 flashes across the yield monitor (although he doesn’t always trust its accuracy). “Test weights are probably the same to a little better than last year.”

Today, they’re harvesting a farm that was underwater during that big August rain.

“We had to pump water off because the water was as high as the ears in some spots,” Kelleher says. “We got it off fast enough that it didn’t take the crop down.”

The biggest challenge this harvest has been back at the bin and deciding what needs to go through the dryer. Much of the corn is within a point of being dry enough, and so it’s forcing them to mix and match and make decisions load by load.

Input Costs Top 2026 Concerns

It’s all part of the harvest process as this Wisconsin team hustles toward the finish line of 2025 and makes plans for 2026.

“At the top of my list are input prices,” Kelleher says. “We’ve been so religious with putting down inputs, not over-applying, but using our variable rate prescriptions to put on what we need, where we need it for the yield we’re getting, but we’re going to cut back this year just because of the prices. I mean, you’ve got to be able to try to turn a profit and not put it all into the ground.”

They continue to face the unknowns of the future while counting this season’s performance in the present. Fundamental agronomy, timely applications and reasonable weather teamed up for this farmer to hit their 2025 expectations.

Kansas Farmer Harvests Corn Yields 30%-Plus Above APH

Thu, 09 Oct 2025 22:01:50 GMT

For some Kansas corn growers like Matt Splitter yields are shaping up to be well above average this harvest, and maybe even a record – a welcomed change from the past two years, which were plagued by drought.

The central Kansas farmer says moisture at key times kept his corn crop growing early and then packing on test weight at the back end of the season. While he is grateful for the rains, he is ready for them to stop.

“We got another inch-and-a-half of rain, oh, two nights ago. So, we are picking around on some corn and trying not to get stuck,” says Splitter, a fifth-generation farmer based near Lyons.

After roughly 10 days of harvest, he estimates corn yields are coming in about 30% to 40% above his average production history (APH).

“Volume always wins,” Splitter says. “Prices are not great, but holy cow, we’ve cut more bushels in the first eight days of corn harvest than we probably have for the last two years combined because of drought.”

Despite the federal government shutdown, the U.S. Drought Monitor map and its associated products remain unaffected and will continue to be released on schedule, according to the National Drought Mitigation Center.

(NDMC)

Record Harvest Projected For 10 States
The USDA September forecast for total corn production projects U.S. yields will come in about 13% above last year, with 10 states expected to see record numbers.

In Kansas, farmers are likely to harvest a yield range of 131 to 146 bushels on average, according to Greg Ibendahl, an agricultural economist at Kansas State University. He calculated the yield range in early September using U.S. Drought Monitor data.

Even with the extra bushels, Splitter is concerned they won’t be enough for him and other Kansas farmers to completely resolve financial shortfalls.

“If we’d have come into this year on an even keel, this season would’ve been a home run on volume, but I don’t know if it’s going to cause us to get whole again,” he says.

Splitter estimates he and other Kansas farmers would need double to two-and-a half-times the bushels he’s combining to regain their economic footing.

“Financially, there’s a lot of holes that people are going to have to dig themselves out of. And I just don’t think we can. I don’t think we can bushel all our way out of it,” he says.

(Photo: Nick Hemphill)

Is Financial Aid On The Way?
The Trump administration is said to be preparing an aid package that would provide financial relief to farmers. Dollar ranges from $10 billion to $15 billion have been reported.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Fox News that “We will be announcing a program as soon as the shutdown ends on what we’re going to do in the short term for these row croppers, including our soybean farmers.”

Brooke Rollins: "Farmers just want to sell their product. They don't want checks from the government. But until we get there with all these new trade deals opening up markets by the president, onshoring our food supply for health reasons but national security reasons -- we will… pic.twitter.com/d00bTL7h8h
— Aaron Rupar (@atrupar) October 9, 2025

More than 200 state and national agricultural organizations sent a letter to President Trump earlier this week, saying many farmers need help now. To view the letter and those who signed it click here .

Splitter, like most farmers, wants the marketplace to reward him and other farmers for yield results and not a financial bailout. He adds that if aid does come out at the end of 2025, it won’t do as much good if he has to pay a huge amount of taxes on the dollars.

“We’re making decisions now to create income or mitigate losses, you know. There has to be something put into place where I can roll some of this into 2026, if I need to,” he says.

Hear the conversation AgriTalk host Chip Flory had on Wednesday with Splitter and Chad Ingels, Iowa farmer and representative:

Corn and Soybeans Extend the Rally, Trying to Confirm Lows: Feeders Hit Record Highs

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 20:52:22 GMT

Grain and cattle futures ended higher on Wednesday with hogs lower.

Soybeans Trying to Confirm a Seasonal Low

Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says soybeans ended higher for second day as it looks like the market is trying to carve out a seasonal low.

This is being indicated by firming basis levels and the forward spreads in the market.

“The seasonality is usually, Michelle, we bottomed this market in years like this around that first week of October. Certainly feels like that’s occurring right now. Also, we have bull spreads working, front months gaining on the back, big carries in the market. So that’s a positive sign,” he says.

He says harvest is now past the 50% mark and farmers are not willing sellers at these lower prices so they are storing more of the crop to wait for basis levels to improve or demand to improve with a China deal.

This is especially true in the Northwest Corn Belt, where soybeans generally are marketed through the Pacific Northwest, farmers are still seeing wide basis levels of $1.00 to over $1.50 in some locations.

Corn Market Following Soybeans, Confirming Lower Yields

The corn market has been getting spillover support from the strength in soybeans but has also been digesting the lower yields off the combine according to Roose.

“There is no doubt in the gut slot of Iowa, the yield is not there. I mean, it’s substantially down. You know, of course there’s some good corn too, but I mean, I’m talking like 20 to 30 bushels under a year ago. So the bottom line, we think the crop is not there,” he says.

He says there is also more corn that’s being stored and that is keeping harvest pressure at a minimum.

“Right now I don’t think producers are interested at this price level with a lot of uncertainty ahead selling cash corn for most people below the cost of production. It’s just not happening,” he adds.

Corn and Soybeans Range Bound: What Will it Take to Get Above Resistance?

Even if the markets are starting to bottom they are essentially still range bound with corn trading in a 15 cent range and soybeans around 30 cents.

So what will it take to break out above technical resistance?

For corn he says there is a head and shoulders pattern and if December can close above the gap at $4.32 3/4 it targets up to $4.46.

“So, what gets us out of this range? I think it’s a lack of producer selling and users steps up, because in the case of livestock feeders and ethanol producers its time to get aggressive. I mean you have corn below the cost of production,” he explains.

Roose says for soybeans it will take a weather problem in South America or a trade deal with China that includes U.S. purchases.

Wheat: Putting in a Low or a Head Fake?

All three classes of wheat scored key reversals on Oct. 1 after making new contract lows and Roose thinks that market is also trying to carve out a bottom.

However, analysts have predicted a low several times before.

Roose says the market has been struggling with big global supplies but that is priced in, “We’ve got a lot of big crops dialed in globally. You know I think the funds are short about 95 ,000 contracts so it feels like we need some kind of a catalyst to go up we’re probably a fair market value down here and remember when you’re building this long of a base once we break out you know you can have a better run than you think,” he says.

Yet, he admits it will take some sort of catalyst like a weather problem to really drive a rally.

Cattle Rally with Feeders at All-Time Highs

Cattle futures rallied again on Wednesday with feeder cattle making all-time highs.

Roose says the feeder market has been pushed by the strong cash market and the lack of supplies due to the closing of the Southern U.S. border to Mexican imports due to concerns about New World Screwworm (NWS).

“Remember that’s 50,000 a month less feeder cattle coming into the U.S. from Mexico.” he says.

Can the Cattle Market Sustain the Rally?

Can feeders continue to push higher and will nearby live cattle futures eventually move back to retest the record highs?

Roose says he’s cautious because the market has some headwinds including rising weights and poor packer profit margins.

“Actually the front months of cattle, December cattle versus normal basis is probably about I’d say four to six dollars too high versus the cash unless cash comes up but it’s going to be all about what happens with the packer and what happens with the demand box beef is going to have to move up or cash cattle down for the packer to make a little headway,” he states.

Lean Hog Futures Continue to Consolidate

Lean hog futures continued to see profit taking and fund long liquidation on Wednesday.

Roose says the market hit new contract highs and then topped after the bullish USDA Hogs and Pigs Report.

“It has been consolidating ever since because the market believes the disease issues are starting to subside and farrowing intentions indicate the herd is rebuilding,” he explains.

Soybeans and Corn Rally on Lack of Farmer/Fund Selling Awaiting a China Deal

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 15:19:45 GMT

Corn and soybeans are higher early Wednesday, wheat is steady. Cattle are strong but hogs see follow through selling.

Soybeans Continue Rally on Lack of Farmer and Fund Selling

Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain says soybeans are seeing follow through buying on Wednesday as farmers are busy with a very fast harvest across the Corn Belt.

Plus, more farmers are storing soybeans this fall and waiting for an improvement in basis and/or prices with the possibility of a China trade deal.

“So, soybeans want to sit in that $10.25 range up and down a little bit each day. So I think there’s a lot of hope
that some kind of trade deal is made. And I think you have a lot of farmers who just aren’t going to sell beans at this value because they believe there is a chance that there will be a trade deal made at some point if it isn’t in the next 30 days that it’ll be in the next three months,” he explains.

Soybeans Basis Improving

The lack of farmers selling is helping to improve basis levels on soybeans in some areas according to Scheve.

“That’s going to change the basis market. It may not change the futures much, but it is going to change the basis, and you’re going to see the basis bids pop somewhat, and pop is probably 10 to 20 cents around the country. We’re starting to see that already in some processors in North Dakota, where the harvest is well past 75% done.

Trade Aid Keeping Bushels Off the Market

Scheve says the possibility of a trade aid package being announced is also keeping farmers from selling as additional cash will help them meet immediate cash needs so they don’t have to sell soybeans at lower prices, or even corn for that matter.

The funds or speculative traders have also stopped selling soybeans in case the U.S. does reach an agreement with China at the end of the month that contains soybean purchases that could rally the market.

Trade War Different Than 2018?

China has not bought any new crop soybeans from the U.S. yet as leverage in trade discussions but how is that different than 2018?

Scheve says the USDA has already lowered export estimates for the coming year to account for it. Current projections are for a level that is nearly the lowest in 11 years.

Comparing carryout and/or the stocks to use ratio from the last 11 years he says carryout is significantly lower now than during the first trade war.

“So, this year’s situation seems to be completely different and may not be as bad as it seems and why the lack of Chinese purchases isn’t going to hurt as much as some worry it could,” he explains.

Big Question is What Are Final Soybean Yields?

The USDA is forecasting 2 bushels above the trend. August weather is critical to bean yields, and the eastern soybean belt was very dry through August says Scheve.

Scheve says early field reports are suggesting excellent yields, even in the driest parts of the U.S. Even if soybean yields are reduced by 1–1.5 bushels per acre, carryout would remain tight as long as the current export estimate is met.

“Ohio, where it was incredibly dry. I talked to numerous producers over there and they all shared that I was expecting,
you know, fields that should do 65 as an average, I was expecting them to come in at 55 and they’re coming in anywhere from 64 to 68. And I’m like, wait, you’re producing nearly average yields. And they’re like, yeah. And to me, that just says that, wait, there might not be a bad spot overall in the country for beans,” he adds.

Are Corn Yields Dropping?

While Scheve thinks national corn yield is dropping, it may not be as much as expected.

“The yields that I’m hearing in the Dakotas, they are coming in, the early yields coming in are substantially above normal. I mean, we’re looking at yields up there should normally be 150 to 175. They’re running 175 to 210, so they’re significantly above normal. The Ohio crop, the corn is coming in surprisingly better than we expected. It’s nearly average. Southern Indiana, we talked to people there, they’re still coming in at or slightly above average. So Central Illinois, a little bit the same way, it seems to be right at average, maybe slightly above. It doesn’t seem like there’s any problem areas out there,” he says.

Still a Problem With Old Crop Corn

Further complicating that is the amount of old crop corn that is still in storage on farm that is not accounted for by USDA according to Scheve.

He contends there was a substantial amount of old crop corn in bags that USDA has no way to identify with their methodology in the Quarterly Stocks Report.

“How do we know how many bags were used? We know maybe how many were manufactured if there was a way to talk to every manufacturer, but I’ve got farmers that have had three bags sitting in their shed for a number of years just in case they need to use them but they’ve never used them. I’ve also heard of some farmers that are filling bags with low crop corn in the middle of harvest just so their neighbors don’t know that they’re doing that. And to me, that just says, “Hey, there’s a lot of corn still out in the country.”

Markets Strategy is to Store

Scheve says not only are more farmers storing on farm this year, the market is telling them to do that.

With the carry in the futures market and the poor basis levels he is recommending farmers try to store and hold out for better prices or basis levels.

However, he cautions that commercial storage is expensive, so on farm storage is still the best if farmers have the room.

‘It’s Disappointing:’ Central Iowa Farmer Says Corn Yields Are 30 to 40 Bu. Per Acre Lower Than Last Year

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 14:24:15 GMT

What’s usually a rare sight this harvest season — a rain delay — briefly halted work for Ward and Bryant Hunter.

An inch of rain Sunday night was enough to pause the combines, but the father-son duo was soon back in the field, continuing a steady rhythm of harvest that’s been possible thanks to a remarkably dry fall.

“We started combining beans on Sept. 11 or 12,” says Ward Hunter. “We got started early, then had a week of rainy weather. And now the last 10 days or so we’ve been hard at it until the rain last night.”

When we visited the Hunters in the spring, dry weather pushed their Boone County farm to a record planting pace. Corn and soybeans both went in early, setting the stage for what looked like a blockbuster year. And while soybeans have lived up to expectations, the same can’t be said for corn.

“Beans — we have a lot of fields that are the best ever,” Ward says. “From mid-60s to mid-80s [bu. per acre], which is really good for this area. Corn, though, has been disappointing compared to what the beans were — real disappointing.”

Hunter says corn yields so far are averaging around 220 bu. per acre, roughly at their APH (actual production history). But that’s 30 bu. to 40 bu. below the past two years, when the farm hit the low 250s and 260s.

“Corn, though, has been disappointing compared to what the beans were — real disappointing.”

Ward Hunter, Farmer in Ogden, Iowa

The reason, Hunter says, is simple: southern rust.

“By June 15, we really thought we’d have the best year ever,” Ward says. “Then southern rust hit — as you’ve heard from everybody — a lot of southern rust. We also got about 30" of rain from July 1 through about Aug. 10. The disease was the big kicker.”

Had it not been for the fast-moving fungal disease, Ward believes their corn could have hit record levels — perhaps 270 bu. per acre in central Iowa.

“You’ll see yields in beans go from 40 in the wet spots to over 100 on the yield monitor.”

Ward Hunter, Farmer, Ogden, Iowa

His son, Bryant Hunter, remembers spotting the early signs as they were preparing to spray fungicide in mid-July.

“About the time we were getting ready to apply, we started seeing the rust,” Bryant says. “We were scouting to make sure it was the perfect time, and we caught it just as it was coming in.”

While the Hunters never skip a fungicide pass, Ward says those who tried to save on input costs this year likely paid the price.

“You only hear the horror stories, but some guys saw 50- or 60-bu. hits,” he says. “Some who did a second fungicide pass, even a generic one, saw another 20- or 30-bu. boost. This would’ve been the year to do two.”

As harvest continues, the Hunters expect about three more weeks in the field. The biggest takeaway this year? Extreme variability.

“You’ll see yields in beans go from 40 in the wet spots to over 100 on the yield monitor,” Ward says. “Corn will be the same way.”

Despite the disappointment in corn, soybeans have provided a bright spot — a rare balance in a year marked by weather extremes, crop disease and surprising outcomes.

“Soybean yields were a positive surprise,” Bryant says. “Corn yields were a negative one.”

For many Iowa farmers, that sums up 2025: a harvest of highs and lows, with southern rust turning what looked like a record-breaking season into a reminder that in farming, nothing is guaranteed.

The Secret to Planting Big Yields Next Spring May Be How You Manage Your Residue This Fall

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 18:02:42 GMT

While combines roll through fields across the Midwest, farmers have a unique opportunity to lay the groundwork for next season’s success.

“Harvest your crop, spread residue — and most importantly, be safe while you’re doing it,” says David Hula, Charles City, Va., farmer and reigning world-record corn yield holder.

Hula says one of the first steps to building next year’s yield happens right now, inside the combine.

Harvest your crop, spread residue — and most importantly, be safe while you’re doing it.”

David Hula

Residue Distribution: A Critical First Step

When the combine moves through the field, the final step is residue distribution. It’s easy to overlook, but Hula stresses its importance.

In wheat fields, residue might be baled and concentrated in the center. But in most Midwest and Southeast no-till or minimum-till systems, residue should be evenly spread across the entire header width.

Modern combines make it easier to fine-tune residue patterns. With the push of a button, operators can adjust distribution to 80% or 100%, or account for wind direction to keep residue where it belongs.

“We want to move that residue and spread it out whatever the airheader width is,” Hula explains. “If the wind’s blowing, we can push more upwind and not as much downwind.”

Chopping vs. Spreading: Tailor the Strategy to the Crop

Hula emphasizes different strategies depending on the crop residue:

Corn stalks: Don’t overwork the knives. The goal is to spread residue uniformly, not necessarily chop it finely.
Soybeans and small grains: Chop residue into smaller pieces and spread them in a uniform pattern to promote better breakdown and avoid residue piles.

If the combine must stop mid-field, Hula suggests backing up slowly to prevent creating a trash pile behind the machine — which can cause emergence problems later.

“We want to move that residue and spread it out whatever airheader width is.”

David Hula

Uniform Emergence Is the Payoff

Residue piles can block sunlight, trap moisture unevenly and create cold spots in the seedbed. The result? Uneven germination and reduced yield potential.

For example, if soybeans follow corn, leftover piles of stalks can delay soybean emergence, hurting stand uniformity and yields. Adjusting residue spreaders and choppers properly can prevent these issues long before spring planting.

Tools and Technology Make It Easier

Hula notes OEM combine manufacturers and aftermarket companies offer tools to optimize residue distribution. Whether through automated adjustments or simple add-ons, growers can improve residue spread without sacrificing combine power.

“Make sure your spreader is doing all that it possibly can without taking too much power away,” he advises.

Bottom Line for Building Yield Next Spring

Farmers don’t have to wait until winter meetings or spring field prep to focus on yield. The combine itself is a yield-building machine when used strategically. Fine-tuning residue management today helps ensure uniform emergence and stronger yields next year.

For more yield-building insights from David Hula and other top growers, visit the Farm Journal TV app under Breaking Barriers with R&D .

Desiccants Could Help You Harvest More Soybeans At Ideal Moisture Levels

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 13:59:28 GMT

Harvesting soybeans at an ideal moisture level is a challenge for farmers to achieve in any year, and 2026 is no exception.

What commonly happens is soybeans drop below a desirable moisture level in what seems like a blink of an eye, notes soybean yield champion Randy Dowdy, based in Valdosta, Ga.

“You’ve got about 30 minutes in a day when you can pick soybeans at 13% moisture,” he says, only half joking. “After that, they’re below 13% and we start to get seed quality issues. Then the test weights go down and yields go down, too.”

David Hula says overly dry soybeans are an issue for any farmer, especially those who are growing seed beans.

“You can get wrinkled seed coats, and as you handle beans, that wrinkle can cause a pinhole and then those beans are not going to germ,” explains Hula, based in Charles City, Va.

Hula and Dowdy’s solution? They use a desiccant to hasten soybean plant maturation at a higher moisture level. The practice can provide more flexibility with harvest timing.

“We go in there and knock the leaves off these soybeans at 15% to 17% moisture, and then get the combine in there and harvest them. They’re not hard to dry whatsoever, and there’s some free bushels there. No doubt about it, you’re making some more yield,” says Dowdy in this week’s Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast .

When Using A Desiccant Can Make Sense
Desiccating soybeans with some type of drying agent – often a defoliant designed for that purpose or a herbicide – is a common practice used by soybean growers in the South. There, weather conditions stay warmer longer going into the fall and offer fewer environmental triggers to mature soybeans – unlike what occurs in the upper Midwest with its cooler, shorter days in autumn.

“There are situations and seasons where soybeans tend to remain a little green and are difficult to harvest,” says Seth Naeve , University of Minnesota professor and Extension soybean specialist in an online article . “When there are warmer fall conditions where we don’t have an early or even a normal hard freeze, or if farmers had to delay planting — all could lead to harvest challenges in the North and desiccants could be of help.”

Dowdy says many farmers struggle to achieve a 60-lb. test weight with soybeans, because moisture levels can fluctuate in the field.

“The yield goes out the window when beans go wet-dry-wet-dry, it’s part of that phantom yield loss,” he explains. “If growers can get them out of the field and dry them, that’s an easy way to make some money, I think.”

Naeve adds that while Midwest growers might find a desiccant useful in some years, “they won’t be needed every year or on every acre.”

Midwest Growers Weigh The Pros And Cons
Eric Anderson, a field crops educator with Michigan State University, believes there is potential for Midwest soybean growers to benefit from using a desiccant. But Anderson notes there are potential risks and rewards that growers need to evaluate before using one.

In a recent online article , he details some pros and cons for farmers’ consideration:

Potential Benefits:

Induce uniform seed moisture across a variable field
Potentially control weeds depending on desiccant selected
Quicken harvest, reducing the risk of shatter loss with wet-dry cycles
Allow for timely winter wheat or cover crop planting
Potentially reduce harvest difficulties associated with green stem

Potential Challenges:

Yield loss likely if applied before yield has been set
Need higher temperatures and humidity for efficient and quick desiccation
Harvest may only be a few days earlier than normal to achieve desired grain moisture and to account for pre-harvest interval (depending on desiccant used)
Cost of products and application and possible yield loss may make the practice unprofitable
Greater shatter losses possible if not harvested at optimum time after desiccation
Seed quality can be impacted if desiccant applied too early

Herbicides Labeled For Use And Their Cost
Anderson says the selected desiccant should have a short pre-harvest interval, so the crop can be harvested once the desired grain moisture level has been achieved. Care should also be taken to ensure the chemical applied will not negatively impact establishment of the following crop or cover crop (rotation restrictions).

Anderson references three herbicides labeled as potential harvest aids: paraquat (Gramoxone), saflufenacil (Sharpen) and sodium chlorate (Defol-5). Various adjuvants (e.g., crop oil concentrate, methylated seed oil, non-ionic surfactant) are required or recommended according to product labels, he adds.

From Dowdy’s perspective, with soybean prices below the cost of production, growers need to investigate any agronomic practice that can put more yield in the bin.

“Prices are already bad. We don’t need to give away any yield to boot; we just can’t afford it. So we’ve got to be willing to try some things,” he says.

“The herbicide costs about $2 an acre, not counting the application. So, it would be something to consider for sure,” Dowdy adds.

Farmers can learn more from the most extensive study to date conducted by the Science for Success team of soybean researchers in 2024 at 19 locations across 13 states.

In addition, Naeve is looking at the effect of desiccation from several aspects through a research project funded by the Minnesota Soybean Research and Promotion Council.

Watch the latest Breaking Barriers with R&D podcast with yield champs David Hula and Randy Dowdy on YouTube or Farm Journal TV and on AgriTalk.
Your next read: Farmer Finds A Silver Bullet For High Corn Yields

Soybeans Recover on Trump's China Post: Govt. Shutdown Pressures Grains Early

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 20:37:09 GMT

Corn and soybeans closed higher Wednesday. Wheat, cattle and hogs settled mostly lower.

Grains See Early Pressure on Government Shutdown, Report Hangover

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says grains started lower Wednesday as Congress could not reach an agreement to fund the federal government which triggered a shutdown at midnight.

This means only essential USDA information will be released but that does not include weekly exports and the October WASDE will also be delayed.

Martinson says this void of news could put pressure on the grains markets which don’t like uncertainty.

Corn also saw follow through selling pressure from report hangover and the additional 207 million bu. of old crop corn USDA put on ending stocks.

Soybeans Reverse on Trump’s China Post

Soybeans made new lows for the move early in the session with November falling below $10.

Prices then reversed and rallied more than 25 cents from the lows to close above Tuesday’s high and completed an upside reversal. Soybean oil futures also posted an upside reversal while bean meal erased early losses.

The recovery was in reaction to President Trump posting via Truth Social that he and Chinese President Xi Jinping will meet in four weeks and that “soybeans will be a major topic of discussion.

Soybeans ended more than 11-cents higher with hopes that China will be making purchases of U.S. soybeans in the near future.

However, Martinson warns that even if a deal was struck today the U.S. has already lost out on export business it won’t get back and the window for the U.S. to make sales with a deal by early November is nearly closed.

China Has Soybeans Needs Met

China also has purchased enough soybeans from Brazil and recently from Argentina that they may be able to get to Brazil’s next crop year without buying from the U.S.

Soybeans Battle Harvest Pressure

Soybeans will also have a difficult time staying above the $10 level as the harvest is moving rapidly across the Midwest creating farmer selling and hedge pressure on every rally.

Corn Follows Soybeans

Corn futures reversed with soybeans to close slightly higher but were still digesting the bearish Quarterly Stocks numbers.

Martinson says corn yield will need to drop 7 to ten bu. now to get under 2 billion bu. on ending stocks after the additional inventory USDA found in the report.

Corn too will have a difficult time staging a rally with the lack of USDA information and as harvest pressure ramps up.

Wheat Makes New Contract Lows

All three classes of wheat hit new contract lows early in the session with the government shutdown weighing on futures and also feeling report hangover as USDA found both higher stocks and production.

However, when corn and soybeans recovered it did pull wheat off its lows.

Martinson says the wheat market will continue to struggle with the large production from the world’s six largest export countries and as the market is pushing wheat prices low enough to be used in the feed ration.

Cattle Futures End Mostly Lower on Lower Cash

Cattle futures saw early strength on follow through technical buying and short covering as well as news FDA had approved the first drug which would provide prevention and treatment of New World Screwworm (NWS) in catte.

However, cattle ened mostly lower after corn and soybeans rallied, making feed costs higher.

Martinson says the nearby live cattle contracts also struggled with light but lower cash trade development in the North at $360 dressed, down $5 from last week.

Hogs Consolidate

Lean hog futures saw profit taking for a third session after recent contract highs.

Four Strategies for Residue Management

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 13:00:00 GMT

How you manage corn residue now can lead to better performance next spring, says Doug Houser, digital ag Extension specialist at Iowa State University.

“Residue management isn’t just a combine setting — it’s a yield decision,” he says. “If residue isn’t managed [at harvest], the problems multiply. By the time you see uneven stands in June, it’s too late to fix what was set in motion the previous October.”

In an online article, Houser describes a common chain reaction with heavy residue that he encourages corn growers to keep in mind — and minimize to the degree possible:

Heavy residue in the fall traps moisture and keeps soils cooler.
In spring, those zones are either too wet to work or create large clods if you till.
In no-till, residue causes hair-pinning and poor seed-to-soil contact.
Planter ride quality suffers, causing uneven seed depth.
Uneven depth causes uneven emergence.
Uneven emergence eventually becomes uneven plant growth and development.
The result: lost yield potential.

Strategies To Help
Houser says he checks frequently behind the combine to make sure plant material coming through is separating and landing the way he wants.

“The thing I’m worried about is this mass of [plant material] coming through the combine will want to stick together. It can be like cotton balls and not separate like it should,” he says.

The goal is for the residue to land and form a wider spread on the ground.

“Wider-spread patterns thin out residue cover, giving you more consistent soil temperatures and better planting conditions [the following spring],” Houser says.

Champion corn grower David Hula offers four strategies he uses that other farmers might consider:

Apply a biodigester. Two examples currently available on the market are Residue and Excavator.
Put out some nitrogen, sulfur and sugar to stimulate biological activity.
Take advantage of warm days to help break down residue and accelerate the decomposition.
Consider applying a light layer of dirt if using vertical tillage.

One other factor Hula encourages farmers to consider is what their disease pressure looked like this season, and whether any is going to overwinter in the residue.

“The one positive about southern rust is that disease does not overwinter in residue,” he says.

That’s not the case for tar spot spores, which have up to 25% viability after overwintering in Midwestern fields, according to Crop Protection Network.

In cornfields where tar spot was a problem, Purdue Extension says deep tillage can “effectively bury infested corn residue and reduce fungal spore movement.” Purdue also recommends switching to soybeans next year if your rotation allows.

Record Corn Yield Potential in Northeast Iowa Cut 30-Plus Bushels Due to Disease

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 21:03:55 GMT

USDA is estimating near record corn and soybean crops in Iowa this year, but early yields results indicate that might be difficult to achieve, at least for corn.

At the Reints farm in northeast Iowa, corn yields have been running above last year, but they left a lot of yield potential in the field due to disease.

“It’s still a good crop out there,” says Shell Rock, Iowa, farmer Clay Reints, as he hauls this year’s corn crop to the grain bin site on his farm.

2025 Started as Perfect Growing Season

2025 began as a perfect growing season with the setup to produce a record crop.

“In that second week or third week in July, man, the stuff was looking fantastic,” Reints says. “We really thought we had a monster crop out there.”

That crop potential was supported by ample moisture, according to Clay’s dad and farming partner Jeff.

“We’re 9" above normal rainfall from planting date to Sept. 4,” he says.

Disease Trims Corn Yield

However, by August disease hit the corn crop, including a rare strain detected in all 99 counties in Iowa.

Jeff says: “This southern rust came on so quick and fast and people really weren’t that aware of it. It caught a lot of people by surprise.”

While combining in the cab, Jeff talks about the ROI on fungicide this year to combat diseases.

“We’re seeing definitely a 30 bu. gain where we put on fungicide,” he explains. “You invested basically 9 bu. of corn to get 30 back. That’s over a 300% return on your investment. I’ll take that every day.”

Test Weights on Corn Preserved With Fungicide

Reints says some of that yield is also coming from test weights, which are running from 55.5 lb. to 57 lb. on corn.

“We got a good size ear filled out to the tip, excellent pollination,” he says. “We break that open, and see a real good kernel size.”

Reints says the key to that kernel depth, came from using fungicide to curb disease pressure.

Disease Trimmed Top End Yield Potential

While corn yields will be above Reint’s actual production history (APH), Jeff thinks they still left potential in the field due to disease, and it’s evident as the combine rolls.

“This particular field we’re running in that 240 to 250,” he says. “Some earlier corn we’ve done was more in that 220 to 225 range. A good normal crop, but not quite the crop we expected.”

USDA has Iowa corn yields pegged at 219 bu. per acre, but Jeff is doubtful they can reach that.

“I don’t see the whole state averaging that 219,” he says.

Soybean Yields Exceed Expectations

Conversely, early soybean yields are exceeding his expectations, running 10 bu. to 15 bu. above his APH.

“Yields are running in that mid-70s. It’s fun to watch the monitors set above 80, quite a ways across the field,” Jeff says.

Reints attributes the strong finish to timely moisture, low disease pressure and larger seed size.

“It doesn’t seem like we aborted many pods, and those top pods, that top 6" of plant, when that fills out, you know, you’re gonna have a good bean year,” he says.

Corn and Beans See Harvest Pressure, Pre-Report: Livestock Lower

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 20:49:45 GMT

Grains ended lower except for Chicago wheat, cattle and hogs were both down on the close.

Soybeans See Harvest Pressure

Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says soybeans saw hedge pressure with a dry open weekend for harvest across the Midwest and long lines at soy processors.

He says soybeans are drying down fast and harvest pace is picking up steam and could be done in his area of Southwest Minnesota within a week.

Soybeans Suffer From Export Hangover

Soybean futures were also suffering a hangover from all the bearish export news the market had to digest last week.

The market was dealt several blows including China buying upwards of 40 cargoes of soybeans from Argentina after they dropped their export tax.

“China proceeded to buy 96 plus million bushels in a week and then you immediately saw news come that it looked like we’re not going to get a China trade deal done at least until October 31st when we meet in South Korea with them, if not early 2026 when we go to China. So at that point, it really gave the short side the green light to press on,” he explains.

Will $10 Hold in Soybeans

Minor says soybeans are still holding critical support which runs on the charts from $9.80 to $10.05.

He says how long those areas hold will be dependent on how far the funds want to push the short side of the soybean market ahead of a possible trade deal with China.

“I feel like we haven’t seen the big pressure from it yet because funds have been somewhat neutral. We haven’t really had a short or long position on managed money yet. And now with harvest just starting, we could seize that harvest pressure, push us a little bit lower, maybe to that $9.90 type area is what I’m assuming,” he says.

Soybean Marketing Strategy

Minor says with no China export business farmers selling soybeans are seeing poor basis levels at elevators and so they are trying to sell to processors.

With the chance of a China deal in the futures those that are forced to sell off the combine are looking at re-ownership strategies.

Minor says, “Re-ownership is probably the biggest question I’ve been getting the last couple of weeks on soybeans. But I am also seeing more farmers storing on the farm and waiting for the basis to narrow,” he explains.

Corn Slightly Lower: Can The Market Rally on Strong Demand and Lower Yields?

Corn futures additionally saw selling pressure after hitting chart resistance around the 20-day moving average but there is additional resistance at the gap area at $4.32 3/4.

“I think you’re battling back and forth between some support levels around $4.15 on the December futures and kind of that gap up there a little bit higher. So from my perspective, technically, I think this corn market looks very strong in this upward channel,” he adds.

He’s also been impressed with the recent flash sales to Mexico and other strong demand features.

“Then also you’ve got this disease pressure which is also helping us from the perspective of your crop is probably shrinking and if you look at spreads They’ve started to narrow up on the corn side pretty decently and usually that has a pretty good indicator of telling you Hey, you know what? Maybe the biggest crop is in,” he says.

Report Positioning

Grains may have also seen some positioning ahead of the USDA Quarterly Stocks Report.

Minor says the report has been a market mover historically and there could be a surprise in the corn stocks.

“So, this old crop corn that’s sitting in the bins as we go into new crop, in the Western Corn Belt especially, we haven’t seen elevators get real pinched. It seemed like they had plenty of available supplies going into this new crop harvest. And I would expect that this old crop balance sheet is gonna find a few more bushels in tomorrow’s report than what they had previously estimated. That’ll be something to watch.

He says that might be the reason corn consolidated back to some of these support levels or has not run higher because it is waiting to get this report out of the way.

Wheat Ends Mixed Still Looking for a Low

Wheat futures ended mixed with some support coming from the weaker U.S. dollar index but also squaring ahead of the Small Grains Summary and Quarterly Stocks Reports from USDA on Tuesday.

Cattle Futures Consolidate With Lower

Cattle futures saw some profit taking and consolidation with live cattle trying to work in last week’s lower cash trade and boxed beef values.

Minor says in the past as the boxed beef has broke the fed cash market has remained strong but now that Choice boxed are $40 off the highs cash could not hold.

The South was at $237, down $3 and the North live ranged from $231 to $233, with some a few head in Western Nebraska at $235. Dressed price volume was mostly $365, down $6.

Minor says the other big difference is the Southern cash is now trading premium to the North due to the tight supplies as the border remains closed to Mexican imports.

Lean Hogs See Profit Taking Off Contract Highs

Lean hog futures ended lower with some profit taking after hitting more new contract highs on Friday.

Minor says the USDA Hogs and Pigs Report was bullish and that helped support buying late last week but yet he was disappointed in the reaction and thought the market under performed.

The rally in hogs has been driven by fund buying but the funds are now record long and so he thinks they may have run out of buying interest at these higher price levels.

For that reason he also thinks the rally may be close to done.

Can Cash Feeders Lead Cattle Back to New Highs? Corn and Soybeans See Harvest Pressure

Mon, 29 Sep 2025 14:57:29 GMT

Cattle started mixed Monday but quickly moved higher in both live and feeder cattle futures. Hogs are lower, grains are mostly lower early.

Live Cattle Bounce After Lower Weekly Close

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live cattle futures closed lower for the week in the face of lower cash and cutouts.

Cash trade in the South was mostly $237, down $3 from last week. The North traded $233 midweek but $231 on Friday and $365 dressed, down $6 from last week’s weighted averages.

He expects cash to be lower again this week as he says producers have lost their leverage and now are holding cattle and feeder longer which will increase weights.

Boxed beef cutout values also continue to slide with Choice values now at $371.43, nearly $40 off the highs.

Only 4 Day Kill Schedule

Kooima says the packers have further cut kills and many majors will only have a four day slaughter schedule this week.

Last week’s slaughter was just 555,000 head, which is down 62,000 from last year.

Feeders Post a Higher Week, Can They Lead Live Cattle Higher?

Feeder cattle are still the bright spot of the cattle market and the futures posted a higher weekly close last week.

Kooima says the feeder cattle cash index continues to climb and is up another $2.57 today at $367.61.

So can cash feeders lead the entire futures complex back higher?

Kooima says they feeders have been the leaders and so he is hopeful they can eventually pull the market back up since supplies have continued to stay tight.

“You have the border closure to Mexican feeders likely being prolonged with the cash of New World Screwworm only 70 miles from the border and that should keep the supplies of feeders tight,” he says.

Lean Hog Futures Correct From Contract Highs

Lean hog futures are lower early Monday with some profit taking and hedge selling after the market his new contract highs again on Friday.

The bullish Hogs and Pigs Report supported last week’s higher weekly close but the funds are also record long in the market.

The key will be how long do the funds support their long position?

Corn and Soybeans See Harvest Pressure

Corn and soybeans are slightly lower on Monday seeing some hedge and harvest pressure with dry weather over the weekend and an open week for combining across the Midwest.

Kooima is concerned that corn and soybeans are setting on critical support areas that need to hold or the markets could take another leg lower.

There is some positioning ahead of the USDA reports on Tuesday but Koomia is not expecting much change from expectations.

One positive for the corn market is private exporters reported 5.3 million bu. of corn sold to Mexico for the 2025-26 marketing year and 4.4 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations, also for 2025-26.

Cotton Bolls Are Opening, Harvest Aids On Deck

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 17:01:47 GMT

Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are welcomed this week across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, as growers seek the “open fall” that helps finish the cotton crop. Hot temperatures and a few storms are forecast in central Texas. Oklahoma and Kansas are also enjoying favorable growing conditions.

The forecast for the Mid-South is similar, with the Memphis and Little Rock areas projected to see clearing skies after several days of rain. A few showers are expected to yield to sunny skies in the Jackson, Miss., and Delta regions further south.

Of course, forecasts can change, but hopefully not enough to slow crop maturity. On Sept. 14, USDA reported bolls opening nationwide were at 50%. That increased to 60% this past Monday, Sept. 21. Key cotton state boll openings included:

70% in Alabama
79% in Arkansas
76% in Georgia
22% in Kansas
89% in Louisiana
75% in Mississippi
71% in Missouri
57% in Oklahoma
77% in Tennessee
53% in Texas

Tennessee cotton started slowly due to the wet spring. “We had good potential after the rain, but the faucet cut off in the summer,” says Tyson Raper, University of Tennessee Extension cotton specialist in Jackson, noting the state’s cotton acres are down. “The early cotton looks good, but the later stuff is rough due to drought. About 80% of the early bolls are open. The later cotton bolls are approaching 60%. We’re barely into harvest. Yields should approach 900 pounds per acre.”

Drip-irrigated field in Hockley County, Texas, should see defoliation in early October.

(Kerry Siders)

The recent rain is forcing a more aggressive approach to defoliation. “The concern now is for regrowth,” Raper says. “Much residual fertilizer wasn’t taken up by plants in the summer dry conditions. It’s now being absorbed after the rain. We may need higher rates of Folex. As we see more regrowth, we’ll likely need a second shot.”

In the South Plains, Kerry Siders, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension IPM agent, Cochran, Hockley and Lamb counties, says it will likely be Oct. 20 before cotton strippers hit the fields. “Harvest aids will go out in early October on irrigated fields,” he says. “If they’re applied on Oct. 3, it will take 10 to 14 days before fields are ready to strip. Some dryland fields that receive a shot of paraquat could see harvest start earlier.”

The forecast for the South Plains-Panhandle region calls for temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s for the next few weeks. “We don’t see much of a forecast for lower temperatures,” Siders says, adding application of a boll opener, such as Ethephon, should help get plants ready for harvest.

“Remember, the Ethephon label requires the product come in contact with the boll for it to open,” he stresses. “Just getting it sprayed on top of the plant isn’t enough. Coverage is the key. We recommend a quart of Ethephon mixed with 10 to 15 gallons of water per acre.”

He projects strong yields if the weather continues to cooperate. “We’re seeing good cotton,” he says. “It’s still near the range of 9 nodes above cracked bolls NACB. At that rate, plants need to open another 4 to 5 nodes on their own. Irrigated fields could yield in the 3.5-bale range,” he says. “Some dryland fields could hit 200 pounds per acre.”

In central Texas, Tyler Mays, AgriLife Extension IPM Agent, also recommends a solid defoliation program: “We’re in the middle of harvest, but some late-planted fields are getting ready for defoliation. With the cooler weather, Folex or Finish 6 are good replacements for Ethephon.”

Southern Texas Blacklands yields are above average, he says, with dryland yields ranging from “2 bales per acre to as high as 4 bales. Our average yield is 1 to 1.5 bales.”

Jostling with Jassid

As Georgia growers begin harvest, the “catastrophic” jassid leafhopper is on their radars, says Taylor Sills, Georgia Cotton Commission executive director in Perry. “Georgia is ground zero for the new insect threat. Some acres have been severely affected by it,” he says.

“Bidrin has been the pesticide of choice for jassid control, but Carbine is also being used. As an industry, we have a lot to learn about this insect.”

Meanwhile, he says only a small percentage of Georgia cotton has been harvested. Maturity varies, as some acres were planted after June 1. “In far northern Georgia, growers are hoping for a late fall and winter,” Sills says. “Overall, we could have an above-average crop, but there’s a long way to go.”

Ben McKnight, AgriLife Extension cotton specialist in College Station, says no jassid leafhopper damage has been reported in Texas. However, large retailers are being monitored by the Texas Department of Agriculture to determine if imported ornamental plants that were the source of jassid are contaminated with the insect.

McKnight says harvest in the Upper Gulf Coast “is progressing nicely. Yields are slightly above average.”

China Signals that Purchases of US Soybeans Hinge on Tariff Removal

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 15:26:02 GMT

The United States should remove what China described as unreasonable tariffs and create conditions to expand bilateral trade, a Chinese commerce ministry spokesperson said on Thursday when asked if China would purchase U.S. soybeans.

China, the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans, has yet to book any U.S. soybean cargoes from its autumn harvest, traders have said, opting for South American supply instead.

U.S. farmers stand to miss out on billions of dollars of soybean sales because of unresolved trade tensions that have halted exports to China.

Senior Chinese trade negotiator Li Chenggang on Monday met political and business leaders from the U.S. Midwest, where the bulk of American soybeans are harvested, signalling that the world’s second-largest economy could purchase some American soybeans ahead of more wide-ranging trade talks.

However, disagreement on technical details appears to be complicating negotiations, with Chinese and U.S. trade officials set to meet again at the U.S. Treasury on Thursday.

“Regarding the trade of soybeans, the United States should take positive action to cancel the relevant unreasonable tariffs to create conditions for expanding bilateral trade,” commerce ministry spokesperson He Yadong told a news conference.

(Reporting by Joe Cash and Ryan WooEditing by Jacqueline Wong and David Goodman)

Drought Spreads: Precipitation Amounts Are Stagnant But Delivery Is More Extreme

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 21:15:21 GMT

According the University of Nebraska-Lincoln Drought Monitor, this past week saw a continuation of scant rainfall leading to widespread expansion of conditions ranging from abnormal dryness to moderate to severe drought across the Midwest, Southeast and Northeast regions.

(UNL Drought Monitor)

Relief from the dryness might not come easy.

AccuWeather released analysis of nearly 60 years of data showing across the U.S. a notable shift in more frequent extreme rainfall events. However, these heavy rainfall events don’t equal more total precipitation, but rather, nearly the same amounts when all added together.

AccuWeather meteorologists point to three data takeaways:

• Days with 1" or more of rain is up approximately 9% since 1965, reflecting the growing prevalence of storms with high water-loading capacity.

• Daily 4" rain events have increased about 70% since 1965.

• Hours per year with 1" or more of rain have nearly tripled since 1985.

The risk brought by the heavy rain outweighs the benefits of the precipitation as flash flooding is more common with these types of events.

Specific to agriculture, the AccuWeather team says the industry-specific threats include crop delays, increased pest pressure and lower yields.

In the company’s press release, meteorologists point to rising global temperatures increasing the atmosphere’s capacity to hold water, therefore the extra moisture results in single events with heavier rainfall.

“As described by the Clausius-Clapeyron equation, for every 1°F of warming, the atmosphere can hold about 4% more water vapor, increasing the potential for extreme rainfall events,” says Brett Anderson, AccuWeather climate expert and senior meteorologist, in the AccuWeather news release.

Will Drought Conditions Reverse Through Winter?

UNL will release its latest drought monitor on Thursday, and you can see it here.

Meanwhile, the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook for Sept. 23 – 27 favors above-normal temperatures across the U.S. Geographies with chances of above-normal precipitation include: the West Coast and Intermountain West, Texas, the lower Mississippi Valley and lower Ohio Valley. However, areas forecast for below-normal precipitation include: the Rockies, the Great Plains, upper-Midwest, and the western Great Lakes region.

Looking ahead through December, much of the southwest, Great Plains, Mississippi Valley and southeast are below normal for their precipitation outlook.

(CPC)

Ferrie: Why Your Corn Crop Could Be Drying Slowly This Fall

Tue, 23 Sep 2025 19:06:05 GMT

While some Illinois corn growers are heading into harvest early, others are telling Ken Ferrie their corn is drying slowly in the field – they’re seeing moisture levels drop only one point per week.

The rule of thumb historically is that mature corn that dies after reaching black layer will dry in the field at a rate of 0.5% to 1.0% per day in September, and then 0.25% to 0.5% per day in October, according to Iowa State University Extension .

Generally, it takes about 30 GDDs to lower grain moisture each point from 30% down to 25%. Drying from 25% to 20% percent requires about 45 GDDs per point of moisture, according to Peter Thomison, Ohio State University retired Extension state specialist for corn production.

But many agronomic factors come into play that influence dry down, including genetics, delayed planting, nutrient use, weather conditions — especially temperature, humidity, and rainfall — and disease issues.

Reaching Black Layer Prematurely Plays A Role

One reason for a slow drydown process in some fields is a result of the crop dying prematurely.

Premature corn death occurred in parts of the Midwest crop and for multiple reasons. In dry and droughty areas of Illinois, farmers saw high heat kill their corn crop prior to black layer. Likewise, Ferrie says many Iowa and Minnesota growers had corn that died before black layer due to southern rust and other disease pressure – even where the crop had adequate water.

“Corn that dies before black layer from dry weather, high heat or disease pressure can dry down slower,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast.

The damage caused by adverse weather or disease can cause the plants to reach physiological maturity (black layer) prematurely, leading to poor dry-down and higher grain moisture, according to Purdue University corn specialists in an online article.

“When it comes to corn that dies pre black layer, you are at the mercy of God’s corn dryer,” says Ferrie, who encourages farmers to keep checking corn moisture levels and stalk quality to determine when to start harvest.

He offers three additional recommendations:

1. Don’t forget to calibrate combine yield monitors. “We need good, calibrated maps for when we analyze this crop at your yield map meetings this winter,” Ferrie says. “What these maps will teach us is invaluable in helping us shape our plans going forward, especially for you guys that are on the high-res program.”

2. Stay on top of harvest losses. Dry crops will mean more header loss for both corn and beans. “The tip pullback we’re seeing in [central Illinois] corn means we’re going to have to work a little harder to get this stuff off the cob. So keep a close eye on your thrashing losses,” he says.

3. Be proactive with your soybean harvest. “If they’re testing but cutting tough, keep grinding them out at that higher moisture. Don’t let that get away from you,” Ferrie says. “If you can knock beans out of the pod and they’re testing, even though that combine’s groaning, keep going as these moistures drop.”

Ferrie gives an update on yields he’s seeing across Illinois in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast here:

National Farm Safety and Health Week: Stay Safe This Harvest Season With Expert Tips

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 21:12:05 GMT

Farmers spend a good chunk of their professional lives out in nature, producing healthy crops that feed communities and the world. But if there is one drawback to farming, it’s that it is one of the most dangerous jobs in the U.S., according to Laura Siegel, AgriSafe Network.

Whether you’re talking about tragic grain bin entrapment , dangerous combine harvester fires, or just the simple fact that farmers, their family members and employees spend a lot of time in and around heavy equipment, the bulk of on-farm accidents unfortunately often involve farm machinery.

Siegel spoke with AgDay anchor Clinton Griffiths (video above) about how farmers can help reduce accidents and injuries. She says one approach that significantly reduces accidents is getting enough sleep.

“Harvest is coming up and we know a lot of people are losing sleep because with technology you can use those lights to stay up and work until the job is done,” Siegel says. “But honestly, working [with] your machinery with less sleep is as dangerous as if you’d been drinking [alcohol]. So, it’s important to make sure we’re getting enough sleep.”

Siegel shares these reminders to help everyone stay safe this fall:

If you currently have a pair of boots or gloves with holes in them, you should replace them to “prevent you from [having] any contact with harmful chemicals or organic materials.”
When working with machinery, make sure that your clothes are tight and not loose fitting. “And if you’re wearing a cover-up, make sure that the sleeves aren’t hanging loose because those can get caught in the equipment and cause accidents.”
Take the time to slow down and always be aware of your surroundings when you’re driving or towing farm machinery. “Even if you’ve taken these same roads every day for the past 50 years, ag roadway accidents are some of the highest [occurring accidents] compared to any other area, despite having less traffic.”
Practice smart, defensive driving on public roads. “You don’t know when a big farming vehicle might be coming down [the road] and they can’t stop as fast as you might be able to in your pickup truck or ATV.”

Side-Marking Machinery

(Lindsey Pound)

The University of Wisconsin-Madison’s John Shutske has 40 years of experience advocating farm safety best practices. He spends a lot of time talking about the dangers of slow-moving vehicle (SMV) and car/truck interactions on rural roadways.

Shutske says tractor-auto incidents on rural roads are increasing due to a handful of factors, including the higher average age of farmers (60-plus in many areas), a growing need to operate farm equipment on public roadways due to farm growth and consolidation, and distracted drivers. And most rural roads don’t have wide shoulders where you can quickly veer off to avoid a collision, with many lined by deep drainage ditches.

The average vehicle operator driving at 55 mph and approaching a SMV traveling in the same direction, like a tractor hauling two grain carts at harvest, on a two-lane highway with good visibility will have 11 seconds to slow down before an accident occurs, he says. If the driver of the car or SUV is distracted or simply does not see the SMV right away, it significantly reduces the amount of time needed to stop safely.

(ifloortape.com)

One answer, according to Shutske, is for the owner-operator of the SMV to make the vehicle more conspicuous, or recognizable, to oncoming traffic. There are many ways to do that, one of the easiest is to mark all vehicle and implement dimensions (rear, sides, front, etc) with side-marking tape and/or SMV signs (the red upside down triangle) made from retroflective material, which is engineered to reflect light back at the same intensity that is shined upon it.

“The side-marking tape [at your local hardware store], you can find it for $25, and you can essentially outline every piece of equipment,” Shutske says. “It’s an incredibly cheap investment and one that can save lives.”

He also says there are new safety products available from Amazon and other retailers that are made with LED lights and retroflective material that can be “bolted or clamped on, or affixed with magnets” for under $300 to add safety lighting and markings to any piece of equipment, regardless of age.

What About Trailers?

(Lindsey Pound)

It’s important to use side-marking tape on your trailering equipment, Shutske adds. You don’t have to mark a machine continuously across its side, he says you can simply outline a box or upside-down triangle with the tape at each end point. And always make sure your trailer is loaded and balanced correctly, and you have sufficient braking power for the load you’re hauling.

As more farmers embrace automation and robotics — remotely-piloted machines often must be hauled from field to field — more trailers will be seen loaded up with farm equipment on public roads. Spray drones often require large, bi-level trailers with a lot of heavy equipment packed on, like nurse tanks and power generators.

“We’re seeing a lot of big and small robotic equipment, and transportation is really going to be an issue,” Shutske says. “Right now, most have a steering wheel and seat for the operator, but I do see a future where we need to think about regulations and safety standards [for driverless farm equipment]. Trailering [safety] is going to be a lot more important in the future.”

If you want to learn more tips and tricks for staying safe, AgriSafe Network’s National Farm Safety and Health Week 2025 is happening this week. The agency is hosting 10 free online webinars exploring best practices for staying safe around the farm.

Get registered and check out the webinar topics at learning.agricafe.org/NFSHW.

Your next read: Drought Conditions Intensify Threat Of Field And Combine Fires