Hog Prices-Markets

Grains Rally on War, WASDE, China Meeting: Cattle Hit by Beef Import Fear

Mon, 11 May 2026 21:51:39 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended higher Monday with cattle mostly lower.

Grains Add Risk Premium
Grains markets were higher on Monday adding risk premium tied to the breakdown of the peace talks with Iran over the weekend and higher energy prices.

Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says both sides rejected the deal and so funds were buying and as long as crude oil stays at high prices that will bring in inflationary buying.

“I think you move some of those investors from the equity markets to the grain side, one on inflationary concerns, but two, just saying these things are undervalued. We know we have plenty of supplies at the present time but that could change. But let’s just take some money and put over there. And I think that was really the catalyst that it got started. Now we got to see what it takes to get it to go further,” he explains.

Big News Week....Including China Summit
The other factor that is moving the grain markets and bringing in fund buying is optimism about ag purchases as part of this week’s China summit between President Trump and President Xi.

Soybeans have been adding premium heading into the meeting according to Boddicker. “The market always gets excited when President Xi and President Trump are going to get together, knowing great things are going to happen, but we’ll see if it does or not. You know, in the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz closed that might be more of an incentive for China to come in and do some things with the U.S. to try to get some concessions and get that opened back up.”

How Much China Business Priced Into Soybeans?
But how much of the soybean purchase agreements with China is already priced into the soybean market?

Boddicker says, “One would have to think that most of it is. We are here in the seasonal time, on the beans where you put some highs in, but nothing saying you couldn’t have. But when you have these types of summits most of it’s priced in ahead of time, unless there’s some really huge surprise that you’re not thinking of.”

China Buying Other Ag Goods?
The other key is whether or not China buys other ag products beyond soybeans as the grain market is already pricing some of that in as well.

“One ship can keep all afloat sometimes, and I think that’s helping. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if China did some corn and some wheat in here, but time will tell if they do,” he adds.

Running Into Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans may have stalled out though running into chart resistance on Monday.

Could the market break above those recent highs with some good news from China?

Boddicker says, “I think it’s a possibility. You know, if I were a producer and I didn’t have much done on new crop beans somewhere from here to $12, I would be pricing somewhere whether that be in the cash or in the futures. If I did futures, if I started going back over $12 or $12.60 or so. I’d probably exit that and see where it went because I’d have a breakout at that point. But I think it’s not a bad area to do some things.”

July corn is also nearing the double top from last week at $4.78 1/2 but Boddicker thinks that mark could be retested.

“I think it’s a possibility. After hitting chart resistance you really thought this thing could break back to $4.50 to $4.60 and you went to $4.61, which I think was great support. And that’s a 25, 26 cent break, which would be about right,” he says.

Boddicker thinks the corn market needs to get a supply shock from weather or a demand shock from the China summit to get through overhead resistance.

He probably needs some news to get going in here with the supplies we got to do, whether that’s weather or something out of the China summit in here.

May WASDE Positioning
The grain market was also gearing up for the May WASDE with little change expected in the old crop balance sheets.

The focus will be on the first new crop estimates of the season and the trade is anticipating soybean production to be up 183 million bu. from last year at 4.445 billion bu. due to a 3.5 million acre increase in acreage. Yet, the ending stocks are estimated to be up only 19 million bu. from last year at 364 million.

Corn production could be down over 1 billion bu. from last year with acreage cut nearly 3.5 million against a trendline yield of 183 bu. That brings ending stocks down nearly 200 million bu. to 1.933 billion bu.

Boddicker says that is largely priced into the corn market.

Winter wheat production is expected to fall 200 to 250 million bushels below last year with ending stocks down to 833 million bu.

Boddicker says that is reasonable with the problems in the hard red winter wheat crop.

“I think you get a lot of areas that are dry and that wheat’s really gotten hurt. The next two or three weeks, as you know, is going to be critical. But just where it goes from this point, I’m
not sure. But I think there could be some surprises there. But whether they’re going to bring it out now or later, time will tell us,” he says.

Kansas Wheat Quality Tour
The size of the Kansas wheat crop will at least be determined by scouts on this week’s Wheat Quality Tour but will it move the market?

Boddicker says, “The trade has a lot of that priced in with looking at bad conditions that we’ve seen. We got a little improvement last Monday on the report but could they come back and say, hey, there’s more acres that we’re going to destroy here. That could be the real surprise.”

Exports and Inspections
The corn market saw flash sales on Monday morning of 15 million bu. of corn to Mexico, split between old and new crop. South Korea also bought 5.8 million bu. of corn.

Weekly export inspections were strong on corn at 66.6 million bu. with the year to date total up 30% from last year.

Soybeans export inspection were at 24.1 million bu. which are solid for this time of year, but the total is still 23% below last year.

Wheat export inspections were 18.8 million bu. and now total 840 million bu. which is up 13%.

Boddicker says that data was mostly supportive and reflects a change in attitude by many countries that are stockpiling grain.

“A few months ago, I think we can go back and say that we changed the attitude of that importer to say, I’m no longer going to buy hand to mouth. I better put something in reserve just in case more gets out of hand with the American and Iranian war and other things going on in the world,” he explains.

Cattle Market Hit by Beef Import Hike
Cattle futures were mostly lower except for nearby contracts reversing the strong opening.

The market reacted to President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations to curb record high beef prices.

Boddicker says, “What can break the camels back? When President Trump came out and said that he’s going to drop the tariffs on Brazilian beef and other countries to get more beef in the U.S.”

He says this caused funds and algorithm traders to again liquidate on concerns that the government is getting involved in trying to get beef prices down at the grocery store.

“We looked at preliminary open interest numbers from the CME this morning were looking like we were down 2,100 contracts, which would have meant long liquidation on Friday on the sell-off. And then when they came up with final numbers, it was a plus 3,900. Again, a 6,000 contract swing indicating there was more new selling on Friday. Something wreaks in Denmark on that much of discrimination or discrepancy between those reports,” he adds.

Cattle Market Topping Action?
However, it is hard to call a top in this type of market he says.

“We’ve seen this action before and every time it’s come back. When we look at some cyclical things, you’re looking for some intermediate term highs in both feeder cattle and fat cattle in May. So could we have done that already? We could. I think only time is going to answer it. But this market, as we all know, is fundamentally is strong but is still headline driven,” he says.

The market also failed to rally on record cash trade which topped at $260 in the North and don’t forget the DOJ probe announcement on Friday.

“The only thing that bugs me on that is what are we going to find out? We’re just getting settlements from the last DOJ probe. What are we going to do different this time than we did last time?”

Hog Bounce
Lean hog futures bounced off the new contract lows scored on Friday. So was this just a one day pop?

Boddicker says he was encouraged the summer months at least held chart support after testing it the last several sessions and it came as cattle futures fell.

Can the continue to market recover?

He says, “It feels like we maybe have the high end for the year but a $5, $6 rally would not be unexpected,”

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:32 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

Soybeans Lead Grain Recovery Friday on Talk of China Soybean Purchases

Fri, 08 May 2026 21:30:05 GMT

Grains ended higher Friday with cattle lower.

Grains Recover Friday, Follow War Headlines
Grain markets recovered on Friday with crude oil as the hopes for a cease fire and peace deal with Iran started to fade.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week.

“Headlines have been all over the place. We came into the week with crude oil sharply higher, thinking that the blockade that was on from the United States and of course also by Iran was going to be long lived. And the market was even looking and saying that that blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last to the end of summer,” he says.

Grains and a lot of commodities added war premium because of that and then reversed lower on news of a peace deal later in the week.

“When the we saw a mutual letter of understanding, a one pager by President Trump to the Iranians trying to find a way to open the Strait and maybe get to a 30-day negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That gave the market a drop, if you will. And then on Friday, as tensions started to come back up as the U.S. attacked a few tankers, the market added war premiums. So in my mind, war is still the big factor in grain trade. We’ll see how the next week plays out. But next week,

Strait Reopening is Key
The big key is getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Basse is giving that about 33% odds.

“I’ve increased it a little bit because I do believe that there’s pressure on the Iranians as they run out of storage for their crude oil production to maybe get back to the negotiating table,” he says.

He says a forced deal in which the U.S. military and Iran will go back and forth will open it up for short periods of time, otherwise the U.S. may continue the blockade.

“But as you go forward, again, we’ll see how Trump is able to negotiate. And the Iranians at this point are not anxious to get to the negotiating table, which concerns me. But we’ll see how Pakistan really nudges them forward along with the Chinese,” he says.

Corn and Wheat Rally Over?
Without a re-escalation could the corn and wheat rally be over, especially after lower weekly closes?

“Managed money or funds are along about a half million contracts of grain, corn, soybeans, and wheat, it does show the markets put a tremendous amount of war premium in the price. We’ve done some analysis at AgResource. We think it’s about 45 cents on corn, $1.40 on beans, and about 25 cents on wheat in terms of war premium. If that war were to end, that premium comes out. I also believe the markets will be more focused on new crops,” he adds.

So he thinks farmers should be rewarding the market rallies.

Soybeans End Higher on China Purchase Talk
Soybeans led the rally on Friday with the summit coming up May 14 and 15.

Basse says, “The summit is expected to produce maybe some Chinese buying. Rumors from China on Friday had them buying some 12 to 13 million metric tons from the United States. If I combine that with the 12 million tons they bought last November through of, let’s say, the end
of January, that would take us to 25 million metric tons. And remember, back in that November meet, the United States talked about China committing to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. So we’ll see how this all plays out. I do not think that buying 12 or 13 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is all that bullish.”

That’s because it will lead to lower soybean export figures but still the market saw this as demand from China and it got the market moving higher on Friday.

China Summit Deliverables?
So what is the market looking for to keep the China premium built into the soybean market intact?

Basse says, “The USTR and Ambassador Greer has been talking about a board of trade idea. And the board of trade is not in Chicago. It’s a board of trade concept in which the United States would start to sell additional ag commodities to the Chinese under some separate terms. So maybe that includes wheat or corn or beef or other products. And so whether or not Ambassador Greer can get that across the finish line next week will be important. If we broaden commodity mixtures to China, from the United States, that would be more bullish.”

He thinks it will take another summit in November to get that done.

Will China Buy Other Crops?
China has said they want to buy non-soybean row crops though, so could the soybean bulls be disappointed.

He says its entirely possible, “Listen, when we head into these kind of negotiations or summits, it’s all political. And that is something that, you know, as an analyst, we can’t look behind the curtain very far. I am troubled about several things, though. Again, I’d like China to drop its tax on soybeans. It has a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans coming in, a 15% duty on grain. So that needs to end. But on the other side of that, I would be hopeful that maybe we can start to sell some grain to China. and wheat and other meat products. That would just help the U.S. farmer broaden things out.”

He also hopes the two countries can normalize trade with a market-based system.

“Not where presidents Xi or Trump, decide what’s going to happen.”

Global Tariffs Struck Down, Leverage for China?
In additiona, the 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful on Friday. So, does that give China more leverage in these discussions next week?

Basse says, “Oh, it sure does. You know that a 10% tariff was on China. If we remember back to the last meeting that happened back in November, that tariff rate was somewhere just shy of 50%. So the Chinese like to trade. In other words, if they’re going to get a lower tariff, they’ll do something in terms on the buy side. And we saw that with the fentanyl tariffs back in November. If there’s no tariffs on China, which would be the implication of that, that 10% tariff being wiped. out, I wondered what else the United States could provide China. Maybe there’s something on Taiwan. Maybe there’s something elsewhere. But the availability to trade tariffs for China doing something is diminished with this decision that came on.”

He says it’s disappointing that this happened right before the trade summit.

Wheat Topped?
Wheat may have topped but with the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour next week could that shock the market into causing some weather premium to be added?

“I think that we’ll all look to the Kansas tour and the NASS production estimate that comes out on Tuesday as kind of giving us what the probabilities are in terms of how small is small. There’s some of us that see the hard red winter wheat crop down in the 575 to 585 million bushels. If it goes below that, then that will be somewhat bullish,” he explains.

However, he says the world wheat carryover of old and new crop wheat is a near record supply.

“So there’s no shortage of wheat in the world. We just have a shortage of hard red wheat in the Kansas or the Plains. And then the question is, what do U.S. millers do accordingly? But I worry about export demand going forward because we are hearing that Russia is selling wheat
into Mexico. We’re hearing Russia selling wheat into places like Brazil. These are traditional U.S. customers. I hate to see that business being lost to the Russians,” he adds.

He thinks USDA may lower the winter wheat crop between 200 to 225 million bushels with ending stocks dropping 100 to 125 million bushels.

May WASDE Expectations
Will USDA raise corn exports in the May WASDE and lower soybean exports?

“Yeah, I think that’s the popular tone that people want to raise exports a little bit on corn, maybe cut the ethanol estimate because of the inclusion of sorghum in the weekly grinds or monthly grinds. That’s all possible. I think USDA kind of holds pad, if you will, and we don’t see a big change on end stocks. We still stay above 2.1 billion. And then on soybeans, you know, we’re looking at around 340 to 350 million bushels, maybe down 5 to 10 million bushels there. Maybe exports need to be trimmed a little bit in soybeans, but crush numbers need to rise. Wheat won’t change much,” he adds.

For new crop corn ending stocks his estimate is above 2 billion bushels as USDA sticks with trendline yield of 183 bu. Soybeans will also see trendline yield of 53 bu.

The wheat number will change based on the NASS production report of winter wheat.

China export demand is still up in the air. “And a lot of that depends upon the summit on Thursday, Friday. So if I’m USDA, I’m not going to make a big change in Chinese soybean demand just yet.”

The biggest changes could come with USDA raising the Argentinian corn crop, six or seven million metric tons. They also could do the same to Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop could nudge up just a million or two tons, he adds.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures ended lower despite record cash trade. Is that just profit taking or is that a bigger concern?

Basse says, “I believe it’s somewhat of a concern. Seasonally speaking, as we tend to get into the early part of June, excuse me, May, and we normally make a top in the beef market. That top usually corresponds with the Mother’s Day weekend. So coming after that, I expect beef prices to start decline. We also see cash cattle numbers rising, or at least fed cattle numbers rising for the next three or four weeks. Slaughter has been relatively low relative to on-feed estimates over the last four or five weeks. I believe those cattle will now come to market maybe at some heavier weights, and that could cause some easing, if you will, of cash prices.”

But he doesn’t see any end to the longer term bull market in cattle because there is no dramatic expansion in the cattle herd.

“So tightening supplies longer term is still the theme. It’s just that the market could have a correction here,” he adds.

Brazilian Beef Imports
The talk of higher Brazilian beef imports and the DOJ investigation of meat packers may have also spooked the funds.

“Well, we did have President Lula at the White House on Thursday, and there was a discussion of better or improving beef trade into the United States. A lot of that beef will be used for the grind. In other words, hamburger in Brazil was the biggest importer customer into the United States looking backwards to 2024. So I imagine that there is that potential there, but the Brazilians are going to take a little while to have it all happen. And now we’ve got the Section 122 tariff news, there’s a little push on that. But again, I don’t think it’s enough to really collapse the market. I do believe it’s something that could give us a correction,” he states.

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:04:51 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Corn, Soybeans Hold Support as Oil Recovers: Cattle Fall Despite Record Cash

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:56:17 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower on Thursday except back month hog futures.

Grains Follow Crude Oil, War Headlines
Grain markets were lower on Thursday still tied to the trend of the crude oil futures and Iran war headlines says Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing.

“You know, we had crude starting the day out significantly lower, putting those lows in fairly early in the session, and grains did very much the same thing,” he says.

He says up until this week the grain markets seemed like they were trying to divorce from the energy sector and trade their own fundamentals but that isn’t the case the last few days.

“I think today was the best example as it traded both on the lows of the day with the crude and on the highs of the day,” he explains.

Corn and Soybeans End Off Lows
So, crude oil started sharply lower Thursday with the continued news of peace talks with Iran and possibility of getting the Strait of Hormuz open, pulling down grain markets.

However, crude oil stabilized as the day progressed following Iran rejecting the terms for a long-term cease fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That reversal in the crude oil market helped to support late day buying in corn and soybeans, even bean oil.

Corn and Soybeans Hold Support
Corn and soybeans also bounced as they held key chart support and bounced off that level.

“We got underneath the moving average that we’re watching kind of mid-day like on the December corn in that $4.85 area. So we definitely had a lower low than that, but the closes kind of saved the day on the charts,” he says.

He says it was a victory for corn to close just a 1/2 cent lower versus at the low end of the trading range today.

“Something to be watching for tomorrow, though. I mean, we’ve kind of put a few days in a row now, some lower highs and some lower lows and busting through some of the moving averages and retracements. So that’ll be a big number tomorrow.”

Will Funds Defend Longs?
The funds had piled into the corn market the last week or so buying over 83,000 contract last week alone and were record long in soybean oil. So will they defend those long positions if crude oil goes down or wait to see if inflation concerns subside?

“I think they can stay in these markets for a little bit longer in the corn. But they can put a lot more contracts on the books too. From a historical standpoint it’s still early in the season for them to be completely exiting. I don’t think that needs to happen today. I think we’ve got a a month to two months left from a seasonality standpoint and then they could shed some positions,” he adds.

Plus, he thinks the inflationary concerns are far from over because it will take a while to get the Strait of Hormuz open and normalized and the managed money traders realize that.

Favorable Planting Weather
The USDA crop progress report has shown planting progress ahead of average which has also weighed on the markets.

While there have been some areas that have struggled with cold and/or wet conditions slowing planting that is starting to change.

Much of the Corn Belt is seeing some more favorable weather and the extended forecast is also conducive for planting which should result in bearish planting figures for corn and soybeans on Mondday.

“It looks to us like most everybody’s getting a window. There’s some spots out into Indiana and into Ohio that we’re a little concerned about yet, Michelle, as far as planting pace goes. But, you know, that eastern Iowa into Illinois looks like we’re going to be in pretty good shape and getting a nice window in a lot of spots.”

Weekly Exports
Weekly exports on Thursday morning were below last week for corn at 53.6 million bu. but still solid for this time of year. Plus, total exports are up 29% from a year ago.

Soybeans were only 5.2 million bu. for old crop which is a marketing low and cumulative exports are down 23% from last year which is disappointing according to Hoogendoorn.

“I think the marketplace is kind of anticipating some of that. We’re not really riding a huge wave higher as far as especially old crop soybean sales go. So I believe some of that’s priced in. We know we’re going to be lower on exports as this year kind of gets to the back half of the year, right, as far as old crop sales go. New crop is hopefully a different story. I think we’ll get a month or so down the road and we’ll start to focus on that which is why we didn’t take that news harder,” he says.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
Also holding the soybean market together is ideas that China could announce soybean purchases at the Summit next week and so it may build those premium back into heading into the meeting. Is this market building those premiums in? T

“Yes, there’s probably some optimism built in there. However, a lot of these type of meetings have been disappointing. Right. So. let’s be a little careful there if we’re truly putting some premium into the market going into into that meeting let’s approach that thing with some caution. Hopefully it’s not warranted but our history would suggest that gets a little disappointing on the actual action items,” he adds.

Wheat Story Over?
The wheat market did not recover off the lows with crude oil and was down sharply especially in hard red winter wheat contracts.

The market is continuing to remove weather premium with some rains or moisture received in dry HRW areas in Colorado and Western Kansas. Plus the frost concerns have not materialized as advertised.

So, Hoogendoorn says the wheat production concerns are starting to fade.

“Well, talk about an impressive story about buy the rumor and sell the fact, right? I mean, this crop has got a lot of issues as far as the hard red winter wheat. So it’s so impressive that we rallied before that news kind of came out, if you will, or before it was official through the USDA. Now we’re getting a lot of that information coming out on the table, but we’re taking a good 60 cents off that wheat market in the meantime. So yes, that’s very much what’s going on. That wheat story has got some age to it,” he states.

The market didn’t even react to the Oklahoma wheat tour results which pegged the crop at only 47.8 million bushels, which was well below the 106.4 million bu. figure from last year.

And while some areas missed frost there are more freezing temperatures in the forecast for this weekend, which have failed to support the market.

Cattle Lower Despite Higher Cash
Cattle futures ended off session lows but were lower on the day.

Early pressure came from lower boxed beef prices, the lower stock market and concerns that a planned meeting between President Trump and Brazil’s president may result in increased beef imports coming into the U.S. to provide some price relief to beef for consumers.

The funds sold early on the headline says Hoogendoorn.

“They wanted to take risk off on this cattle market in a big way today. We’re hearing more rumors of some discussions going on with Brazil.
We’ll see if anything comes out of that in the next 24 to 48 hours. Be watchful and mindful of that type of discussion. Not sure if that’s what spooked it or if it was something else,” he adds.

He adds the only reason cattle ended off their lows was the higher cash market. He says it started out steady but continued to build momentum.

Southern cash trade was reported at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3. Northern trade live ranged from $258 to $260 live with $402 dressed prices, up $3.

Hog Futures End Mixed
Lean hog futures ended mixed with pressure in the front end of the board on continued ample supplies and bear spreading.

He says, “The market’s been trying really hard to justify having these summer futures markets at a premium to the nearby fundamentals, right? And as time passes and we run on a pretty large lack of any good news on the fundamental standpoint, they struggle to justify that premium. That’s exactly the way the market was trading today. That’s the way it’s been trading. Today they did it in the spread market, which, you know, as producers, we have to be pretty thankful for, right? Like we’re able to sell the front end and at least we’re buying the back end was actually able to post some closes that look pretty attractive there, you know, August on back type of a thing.”

But he thinks the market is on the edge of improving with few numbers in the pipeline.

Export Restrictions Due to Pseudorabies
The other good news is so far the only export restrictions tied to pseudorabies remerging after 20 years is Mexico, but that is limited.

“We’ve got the Mexico saying that they’re not interested in our varieties meats anymore. I think that’s a real thing and gonna be in place for a for a while. I don’t know if that’s something that will drag on all summer and into the fall or not mostly a reduction in revenue for the packers. I don’t think it’s going to have a huge impact,” he says.

Still the market has been on edge awaiting those type of announcements and if there are more he thinks they will be traded negatively.

“So the two things to watch, are there more positive cases and if any more news as far as countries restricting exports for sure,” he adds.

Grains Plunge With Oil, Peace Talks: Is the Rally Over?

Wed, 06 May 2026 21:55:54 GMT

Grain and hog markets were lower on Wednesday with cattle higher.

Grains Tank With Crude Oil
Grains markets were lower in tandem with the plunge in crude oil on headlines of peace talks and a possible end to the Iran war. If the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened how much lower could grain futures fall with energy markets?

Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.

“If oil continues to slide sharply lower, you know, that’s obviously going to be a big headwind for the grain markets. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe chew through this headline quicker than we saw earlier in the year and maybe get the grain markets to trading back to their fundamental backdrop and the uncertainties that lie there,” he says.

Market Hit Technical Resistance
Corn also saw technical headwinds come into play according to Sloup as July corn made a double top.

“We saw July corn futures bump up against those March highs, $4.84, $4.87 1/2, tag that top to a tee and then set back. And if you look back all the way to last spring, that was also kind of a key inflection point for the market as well. You had the RSI or the relative strength index getting into overbought territory, which has really only happened about four or five times over the last year and a half. And each of those times, you know, we did see a correction of about 10 to about 30 cents. So somewhere in that ballpark, which is what we got today. So maybe a little bit more weakness here in the near term,” he explains.

New crop December corn though he thinks can trade on its own merit once the market stabilizes.

Is the Grain Rally Over?
Sloup is not sure the grain market rally is over due to the uncertainties surrounding acreage, yield and fertilizer. That will continue to keep fund or managed money traders interested in buying commodities.

“You’ve got fertilizer concerns and you talk about the energy markets as well. I don’t think that the energy markets or crude oil specifically is going to drop straight back down to where we’re trading 50 or 60 bucks. I think those prices probably stay somewhat elevated. And the concern there was get longer, higher for longer energy prices, and that feeds into the inflation narrative. And that props up commodities as a whole and continues to draw in some managed money participation, which we’ve seen in these grain markets for the better part of really the year,” he says.

So, he thinks the pullbacks are still buying opportunities. “Maybe more so in those new crop contracts.”

Soybeans Also See Technical Resistance
Soybeans had also hit technical resistance and drug down by crude oil the market went down and closed below the breakout points on the charts.

“So, we’re kind of right back down there to that breakout point that we saw about a week and a half ago. I think it was April 29th that we broke out above that range. And now we’re just retesting it and hopefully being able to defend that. That’s going to be a key area to keep the market in check. If we break and close back below there, potentially we see another 20 to 30 cents of downside here in the near term. But again, I think we potentially settle back into that choppy sideways range,” he explains.

However, new crop soybeans have had a more bullish chart pattern than old crop.

Soybean oil also hit new contract highs before reversing lower with crude oil but Sloup doesn’t think the market did technical damage.

“It was a big pullback in the bean oil market but with what we saw in the oil complex, I don’t think it was all surprising. Really not a whole lot of damage on the chart but a bit of a caution flag here in the next week’s trade,” he adds.

Awaiting China Meeting
The soybean market should be supported with the China summit next week May 14 and 15 and there could even be some buying ramping up into the meeting on optimism about the 25 MMT new crop soybean business being confirmed.

Sloup says, “I think that certainly kind of keeps funds interested and playing, so to speak. Funds have shown an appetite in the soybean complex really all year, as well as the corn market. So I wouldn’t be surprised the optimism build going into that.”

Broader Fund Buying in Grains
Sloup says there is also optimism growing about future expectations in other market.

“You don’t have to look too far to see what’s going on in the equity complex, whether it could be the S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow, etc. Just massive participation from money managers and potential. They start to look at commodities in a similar fashion here this year. Commodities have been pretty quiet over the last couple of years. But when you zoom out and look at the historical commodity super cycles, as we like to refer to them as, they really start with the base metals, precious metals, and then flow into energy. The next year to drop would be the agricultural complex.”

Last year money managers were moving into metals, this year energy and next is the grain markets.

Has Wheat Topped?
Wheat markets were lower removing war premium but have also been removing weather premium according to Sloup.

“A lot of uphill sledding for the wheat market and it is the wheat market so it can be a little bit more irrational for lack of better terms. We had the big move higher but I think you know looking back about a week and a half ago, we had that big blow off top, new highs for the move, and then a sharp reversal. And you just saw that snowball on itself. So, $6.60 is going to be the big level to hold for that Kansas City contract. That was the breakout point and kind of the old resistance area. If we can continue to defend that, I think that the Kansas City contract. Probably holds firm and continues to mark higher highs and higher lows. Breaking close below that would make me a little bit more nervous,” he says.

The Chicago contract has done more technical damage. He says, "$6.10 to $6.16, that’s a 20 and 50 day moving average. That’s the line in the sand that we want to see hold below that. You know, there’s potentially another 30 cents a downside,” he adds.

Wheat Production Cuts In WASDE?
Will USDA made any meaningful cuts to wheat production in the May 12 WASDE?

Sloup says, “I don’t know that they’re going to make any significant adjustments. I’m not really expecting them to. I would say that the market will trade this USDA report rather quickly. And then it’s probably going to be back to headlines and what’s going on in the corn and soybean market and potentially those markets feed on each other as far as the money flow goes.”

Cattle Continue Recovery
Cattle futures were up for a second day and continue to try to recover from last Friday’s key reversals with help from higher early cash.

“Cash continues to be the leader in that market and really hold a good foundation underneath things as well as just the technical landscape of things. We tested the 20 -day moving average earlier in the week. That will be probably a key inflection point, $249.25 to $250. Break and close below there, potentially you get some long liquidation. But again, the fundamental backdrop, the herd size, the cash trade continues to be just a solid foundation for this market,” he says.

But still he says cattle are resilient. “And whenever we see the turbulence, like we saw earlier in the week, it’s almost like holding a beach ball down underwater or trying to press one down underwater where you can only push it so far down and then it pops back twice as high as you pushed it down. So that continues to be the theme for the cattle market. It seems that dips are buying opportunities.”

Plus, funds are defending their longs according to Sloup.

“They have a net long position of currently about 131,000 contracts, which is historically large, but off of the recent highs that we’ve seen,” he adds.

The one concern he has is a black swan event. “I guess the thing that would make me potentially nervous would be outside market headlines or a potential border reopening, but trying to time those is nearly impossible. So for now, dips are potentially buying opportunities. Yeah, I’m sure lower corn futures, lower gas prices Probably helped out the cattle market and some total here today as well.”

Cattle, Restest the Highs?
He thinks the cattle market can retest the record highs and negate last Friday’s reversal.

“It’s really not all that far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to grind and push to the upside. With regards to the oil market, I think it’s interesting. I would almost look at a retracement in oil futures as a potential bearish catalyst. If you look at the correlation
between those, they’ve been trading almost in tandem, obviously not today. But I think that you probably look at that more as an inflation hedge rather than just risk on, risk off,” he states.

Hogs Lower....Again
Hog futures were back lower on Wednesday unable to extend Tuesday’s gains. So what is the problem with the hog market?

Sloup says, “I wish I had a good answer for you. We’ve been trying to be optimistic here on hogs as of late, but it just continues to mark lower highs and lower lows for that June contract, the 100 level. obviously has a little bit of psychological significance behind it and seems to have a gravitational pull to it as well this week. I think if we can defend that, you know, potentially we can carve out a low here, but not only do the bulls need to defend that, but we need to see consecutive closes out above $102, $102.50. That’s the 20 and 200 day moving averages. Consecutive closes out above there, maybe neutralizes some of the technical damage that we’ve seen over the last two months.”

Funds are only long about 46,000 futures. So no huge conviction to the downside or to the upside. It seems like they might be in a wait and see mode from these levels he adds.

Cattle Fall After Reversal, Is the Top In? Corn Above $5, Beans to New Highs

Mon, 04 May 2026 22:24:03 GMT

Grains end mostly higher Monday, with cattle and hogs lower.

Have Cattle Topped?
Live and feeder cattle futures were down for a second day on follow through selling. Both made record highs on Friday and then closed lower on big volume scoring key reversals.

So is the top in the cattle market?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says it is dangerous to try to pick a high in this market but it fits the profile of a technical top.

“Some 45 years ago I learned a reversal has to be from a terminal area, which is just a fancy way of saying an important area. And I don’t know what’s more important than the all time high. So, we did that on Friday. It has to be done on big volume. It was 86,000. It should be accompanied by an increase in open interest, and it was. And then the third thing is that it should have followed through the following day,” he explains.

However, he says the market ended well off the lows because at one time feeder cattle were over $7 lower and the June live cattle closed almost $3.50 off its lows.

“While it was still lower, it was a long ways from where it was,” he says.

Cattle Hold Critical Support
So the market held the support it needed to on the charts because according to Kooima June live cattle stayed above the 50-day and the
20-day moving averages, which has been kind of significant to keep an eye on.

“August feeders got a little whippy. We got all the way down to 62% retracement, then held that. So I’d say we did good enough holding what I think was technically important,” he adds.

Cash Trade Topped?
Several fundamental factors may have also caused the sell off including this week’s cash expectations.

Last week the cash market hit record high levels with Southern deals mostly $244 to $256, up $9 to $10. The North was $255 to $258 live and mostly $400 dressed, up $14.

The average steer price was reported by USDA at a new record high of $255.02, up $8.84. So it will be hard to see an encore.

“I mean, the market was basically $246 last week, Wednesday, I think. I know I passed $248 on Friday then, but if you compare like $246 and then getting cattle as high as $258 last week. You find me a week where that happened before. There was a couple of weeks in 2014 that were like that, but maybe not quite that much,” he says.

Kooima adds that it is interesting the packers came out already so aggressively on Tuesday and Wednesday, to try to buy cattle.

“And dovetail that with the fact that a month ago or so, there was plenty of these basis deals made by some of the major packers where they were willing to pay five or six over where the Junes were for the first two weeks of May. At that time, that was the equivalent of like $252 on cash cattle. At the same time, the cash market was probably $5 to $7 less than that. Well, a lot of guys did that because that looked pretty attractive, right? Turns out it’s cheap now compared to what the packer paid last week,” he explains.

So the packer was trying to get enough inventory so they didn’t have to work so hard to secure as many numbers this week theorizes Kooima.

“So you’re going to have a standoffish week on cash, maybe. Let’s call it steady due to lack of trade, perhaps, just because I don’t think we’ve
got very small show lists up here in the North, very small. So we don’t have much for sale, but you might have a packer that might not need to buy much,” he says.

Kill Cuts
That because the packers are trying to cut kills this week to prop up their margins.

“I’m not going to say names, but there’s plenty of them that are going four days this week. And one’s down today. A couple of them are down Friday. So the packer is trying to do whatever is necessary to not have to chase the market anymore,” he adds.

That was already a pressuring feature for the market on Friday.

High Gas, Stock Market Sell Off
Also working against the cattle market was the surging gas prices and the sharply lower stock market.

At some point that becomes negative for consumer demand. “One has the worry that, you know, and the inflation or the stress on the budget that’s created by that. And let’s be honest. I mean, boxed beef is no runaway with this tight kill. And it is less than a week now till Mother’s Day. We’re already past that. Usually two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day. That’s kind of your signal for let’s begin the middle meat rally. So hopefully it
still develops. But I think. There was some of that going on today,” he says.

So that created some technical selling especially with the funds nearly record long.

DOJ Probe
Adding to the bearish attitude was USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins reiterating the goal of the Trump administration to get beef prices down.

Part of that strategy includes a Department of Justice investigation of the beef packing industry.

He says, “I’m not sure that Secretary Rollins commentary this morning was helpful to the market either, bringing up the concept of investigating the big four. You know, probably if you’re an algorithm trader and you’re trading, you might think, you know what, I don’t think I want to be participating in this kind of uncertainty.”

DOJ has probed the packing industry in the past only to walk away empty handed but it spooked the funds.

“There’s things that have happened historically that deserve some looking into including the Holcomb fire. I was very vocal through that period about how we killed more cattle after the fire than before it but they couldn’t see anything wrong then. You know, I mean, we had 85 cent cattle and $450 boxes. So, you know, so what are they going to find now?”

Hogs Down Again
Lean hog futures were down again on Monday with continued fund liquidation and technical selling.

Kooima says the market got spooked about the pseudorabies case in Iowa on Thursday and Friday.

He was hopeful with the positive comments Iowa Secretary of Ag Mike Naig made about the problem being contained that the market would stablize.

“He outlined how everything got tested. These were five boars from Texas and an isolated incident. We’ve got protocol in place and we haven’t had a case since 2004. I was hoping that maybe cooler heads would prevail,” he adds.

Kooima says the cash news is pretty friendly but the market can’t find support and the charts look terrible.

“The inability to source pigs because of the disease problems is real. What these pigs cost, close to $100 on an isowean, $150 on a 40-pounder, would tell you just how tight the supply is. So, you know, I have a tendency to be a little bit of a supply-side bull here with nothing to show for it.”

Soybeans Break to Fresh Highs
Soybeans ended 16 to 21 cents higher on Monday and made new highs for the move in both old and new crop contracts.

The market was following bean oil which made more new contract and multi-year highs once again chasing higher crude oil.

The market was also building in optimism ramping up into the trade summit next week in China.

“The hope that we get something tangible with this China visit. I would caution everybody be a little careful as this is China. They’re a bit disingenuous and not the most reliable trade partner but that is out there,” he states.

The crude oil/bean oil story is also a drive as he says with higher energy prices there is the fear of inflation.

“I think is reflecting in some of our commodity prices here, too, most notably some of the stuff that is relatively cheap, like the grains are,” he adds.

How High Will Soybeans Rally?
With the chart breakout will July soybeans be able to take out the March high of $12.50 3/4 and will November soybeans get above $12?

Kooima says both of those moves are in the cards. “Based on the chart pattern here and the fact we have broke out of the range we have been in for six or seven weeks. When you break out of those consolidation patterns that it’s like coiling a spring. I always think the tighter it’s wound then the bigger reaction you get. So, this thing actually projects through that old $12.50 area on the July beans which is a big deal. On both the
weekly chart and on the daily chart it actually opens up the path here for a move to $12.70 or even maybe even closer to $13 on the old crop.”

That could put November in the $12.40 to $12.50 price range where he would suggest some marketing.

Corn Makes Fresh Highs, Dec Closes Above $5
Corn also made fresh highs for the move in sympathy with soybeans and on fund buying.

Funds bought over 80,000 contracts and could add to that Kooima says.

“You don’t have to be a genius to look at $4.85 to $4.87 on the July corn to know how important that is. Let’s see if we can take that out. December corn, you know, that’s new highs for the move. Nice looking chart pattern. We are kind of overbought here. I don’t know if we need to rest just a little bit. But, you know, incrementally, I was starting to look at some new crop sales here. And then the next level at around $5.20. And then the next one around $5.45. I’m more inclined to sell into the corn rally.”

He says the market is also watching weather, lower acreage and fertilizer concerns plus whether or not China buys corn at the summit.

Soybeans, Corn Make Fresh Highs on Demand, China Hopes: Cattle Spiral

Mon, 04 May 2026 15:53:39 GMT

Soybeans and corn were higher early Monday, wheat started lower then bounced. Cattle and hogs were lower.

July Soybeans Break Out
Soybean futures had made some fresh highs for the move early Monday with July trying to break out of its sideways trading range.

John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says it is a function of record crush and hopes for China business ramping up to the mid-May meeting between the two countries, which trade teams are still preparing for despite the ongoing Iran conflict.

“You got the technical breakout. So we’re seeing some money flow triggering that. You still got this really good demand on the crush side here domestically in that regard. So I think that’s supportive of the market as well. But then obviously, too until that meeting happens on the 14th to 15th and this market might be building some anticipation that China could step into the market, either old crop, new crop, pick up some beans in that regard. So I think that’s some of what’s happening here,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Pace
Crush margins continue to be strong with the recent contract highs in bean oil and surging global demand regarding biofuels but he says soybean meal is keeping pace.

“You’re looking at some of these crush margins at their best levels in history, or at least in modern history in terms of support for that crush industry,” he says.

USDA’s crush report for March pegged soybean crush at 227.4 million bushels which was below expectations, but it was still a record.

“I’m hearing some different talk about some regional tightness. So, I guess the question now is where the beans are. Are they hanging on to
them? What’s left? What’s it going to take to get them out? So watching the basis levels and what’s happening regionally with these crushers is going to be a big part of this market here in the short term. And I’ve said it before, if margins are good, crushers will pay whatever they want to per bushel of beans, just as long as they’ve got the crush margin taken care of and profitability coming,” he says.

Import South American Soybeans?
At what point though will processors start buying cheaper South American soybeans?

Heinberg says, “I think we’re actually pretty close to that point. And that’s the next thing I’m kind of waiting for is that headline. You know, you’re looking at Brazilian beans, maybe $1, $1.30 bushel underneath the United States right now on the export markets. And the biggest problems in South America, obviously, is the monster crop that Brazil had. The Chinese demand has not been there and so there there’s processors or elevators sitting on piles of beans right now and they’re getting to a window here where they may just have to put those
beans on the market just to get some cash flow moving it could be a very interesting situation for some of those Brazil elevators down there if the beans don’t start getting moving because they were counting on that Chinese demand to pick up those beans. When China picking up those U.S. beans late in the winter, first part of the year, I think it’s really kind of curbed into that expectation from those Brazilian elevators down there.”

November Soybeans Make Fresh Highs
November soybeans also made new highs for the move on Friday and again Monday morning.

Can November get above $12? Heinberg says that is the next target and may be pushed by China if they buy the 25 MMT the president has suggested.

Heinberg says, “Maybe China does not pick up old crop beans, but they go ahead and forget they talk about buying 25 MMT of soybeans for the next year. So, maybe they start looking into that window here as well. I think that’s something that continues to support the market.”

The cold wet weather may be causing some planting delays as well which may give beans that little bit of a push.

Corn Follows Soybeans, Capped by Wheat
Corn futures made new highs for the move overnight but were slightly lower early Monday with the pullback in wheat capping the rally as well as some farmer selling he says.

“We’ve seen a lot of really good money flow into the core market. In fact, we picked up, what, 80,000 contracts almost as of Tuesday last week,
and obviously it didn’t stop on Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday,” he says.

However, the market was supported by the rally in soybeans.

$5 December Corn
December corn broke above $5 on Friday very briefly as farmer selling stepped in and is back above that level on Monday.

“I think people that missed the first chance at it are now jumping on the second chance. So I think that’s part of it. Historically, $5 corn is a pretty good point to definitely get some things going,” he says.

While producers have sold some corn at $5, he thinks a close above that level could open the door to $5.20 to $5.25.

The corn market is also watching planting pace and if any acres get shifted away from corn but the market will get its first indication of 2026-27 supply and demand in the May WASDE.

The market is also awaiting the March 13 vote on E15 in Congress and the corn market continues to be supported by high gas and crude oil prices.

Lastly, the Brazilian second corn crop has been under stress and bears watching, despite some forecasts for rain coming up.

China Buying Corn?
And just like soybeans the corn market is watching and waiting for the mid-May meeting in China with hopes for corn business.

Market chatter indicates China has been looking for some U.S. corn and that may be another reason why the funds may have been aggressive buyers recently.

Or Heinberg says China could be looking at buying ethanol, which would also be a boost for corn.

Wheat Topping?
The wheat market is seeing some pressure on Monday with rains in the forecast for some of the hard red winter wheat areas.

He thinks the market may have topped out in the short term, even though the funds have added to their length in wheat.

“The funds are record-long spring wheat right now because of the dryness in the Northern Plains. And we’ll have to see how those things all kind of play out. But at least wheat market may be finding a bit of a ceiling here. And if that happens, that’ll keep the market a little bit limited, even though the demand continues to be very good,” he says.

The Kansas Wheat Tour is coming up the week of May 11 but the market has priced much of that production loss in already he adds.

Money Flow Into Grains
The risk of the war with Iran and high energy prices and inflation concerns have all brought money into the grains and that could keep prices supported going forward says Heinberg.

“Crude oil over $100 I think it keeps some general support overall in the marketplace at this time frame. You know, maybe that’s some of the rally we’ve had too, is just the fact that corn needed to catch up to where crude is. You know, obviously there’s headline risk like we’ve seen
today, you know, possible hit on U.S. naval vessels. 15 minutes later, it was, you know, the U.S. said that did not happen. But in that time window, corn flashed to the highs of the day. Crude oil was up over $105 a barrel. You know, so that volatility continues to stay headline to
headline,” he says.

Cattle Futures Seeing Topping Action?
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower early Monday. Both markets hit record highs on Friday before staging reversals and possibly doing some chart damage. However, is this topping action?

Heinberg says the market may need a pullback, but a top is too early to call because fundamentally little has changed as far as supplies.

“The numbers just aren’t out there even look at the feeder market trading $4 under the index today,” he says.

He says the market has also been led by last week’s record cash and that is still king.

Packers bought a good amount of cattle last week so cash could be on the quiet side this week.

“But, you know, we are getting into that window where grilling demand is going to kick in here,” he adds.

Lean Hogs Close to Bottoming?
Lean hog futures have been down the last three sessions seemingly in response to the first cases of pseudorabies since 2004.

While it isn’t a food safety concern and there are vaccines for the disease the uncertainty seemed to weigh on futures plus there was some technical selling triggered.

Heinberg thinks the market is close to support levels.

“If you draw a line underneath the low going back to November, we’re right at that area. Actually, we traded under it a little bit on Friday and
recovered. Today, we back-tested that line again. So we’ll see this $100, $101 window on June. It does look like it’s at least a level that maybe this market can hold, but not really seeing any great strength in it today. Some of it is money flow. The funds are down to, as of Tuesday, 57,000
long contracts on hogs. That’s a pretty big chop considering where we were a few months ago in that regard. Hopefully it’s an area can find some support. Maybe it’s disease concerns just causing that, you know, again, the computers like to trade headlines and that might be the headline they’re pushing now with the pseudorabies issues. But at the same time, it’s starting to look a little bit like we’re undervalued here in these summer hogs, but we need some turn somewhere to get a little bit of a bid underneath this market.

Grains End Higher as Funds Buy on Inflation Concerns: Cattle, Hogs Lower

Fri, 01 May 2026 21:39:09 GMT

Grains ended higher on Friday with livestock lower.

Soybeans Rally with Bean Oil
Soybeans were higher on Friday following bean oil which made new contract highs and hit levels not seen since June of 2022.

Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says the bean oil market has been seeing strong U.S. and global demand with various countries announcing biodiesel mandates.

“Soybean oil has been the lead driver for the bean complex. Years ago, meal was the driver for beans. It’s now the oil due to the biodiesel.
That definitely is helping it,” he says.

Frost and Cold Weather
Soybeans may have also been adding risk premium due to frost concerns.

Some areas of the Corn Belt already saw freezing temperatures and are facing replant and there is another push of cold weather coming in the next few of days.

He says, “Another cold shot this weekend and there is worry about some replant going on. Parts of the country earlier this week also had some very, very heavy rains. We are hearing parts of Southern Indiana, Illinois might have to replant as well,” he says.

New Month, New Money in the Grains on Inflationary Buying
McCormick says a new month also brought in new money on inflation concerns.

“You know, as long as you have the problems in the Middle East going on, you’re going to have people wanting to buy commodities on the energy inflation hedge. And then the other story line you’re going to continue to hear is about the food inflation risk due to the fact of not getting fertilizer there. There’s fear there will be a shortage in the Southern hemisphere growing season. That is attracting spec money into the markets as well,” he adds.

He says there are plenty of investors that made money on the last round of inflation that started in 2020 and hit its height in 2022.

“Coming out of COVID, they made a lot of money trading that inflation story. So some of that money, I believe, is coming into the market. And that is what’s supporting the corn market,” he says.

The record high diesel fuel prices are also driving up inflation McCormick warns.

“Remember, everything is used, you know. for you know in energy to get that product to where we need it so you know you’re you know and then so much of the packaging is derived from products made from energy from crude. So you know that has got a lot of the just inspect investor money saying I want to own an asset that could make me money if we come back into inflationary times. We got some inflationary readings this week shows that the inflation is going the wrong way compared to what the Fed wants. It’s starting to creep back up and that tends to attract money near term.”

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
How much higher can soybean oil go if crude oil stays above $100? Is that the key here for keeping the funds interested in that market or not?

He says, “I think that’s one of the major keys. I mean, the fact is as crude oil continues to go higher, as the Strait stays shut, that probably is going to be supportive.”

The caveat is competition from other lower priced veg oils he explains. “What we’re finally starting to see is we saw the story six months, a year ago, where we were bringing a lot of used cooking oil in from China and going into our renewable diesel plants. Well, we’re starting to hear reports that that is happening again. So what it’s showing you is the price of bean oil domestically has gotten so competitively priced, so high priced, I should say, that you can now import it. That will tend to ration. the demand for the product a little bit, and that might at least at a minimum, slow the upward momentum.”

Worst case, he says it could force the top in the market.

Soybean Chart Breakout
Soybeans had a strong technical day with July closing above $12 and the November contract making a new contract high.

November soybeans could go higher but it depends on if the funds want to add to their long position.

“I would argue, the market isn’t trading your typical grain fundamentals. You’re trading macro fundamentals of the Middle East. And you’re trading, like I mentioned, the inflationary aspect of it. That can carry the market a lot further than economically it really makes sense. So really, the money flow is going to be the key to how far this market can be carried higher,” he says.

Although the July contract closed above $12 he says that contract is still range bound.

“It is still sideways. It’s taken out the near-term range. It has not taken out the high, I believe that was spike made the past fall when the Trump administration announced the China trade deal.”

China Meeting Key
He says that is the key for the market is if the China meeting happens in mid-May and is not delayed again.

“If talks with President Trump and Xi are still on, and President Trump is anticipated to make his way over to China here in the next couple of weeks you’re probably going to hear more rhetoric potentially about what China may do. I do not believe there are going to be a big buyer of old crop beans. They did in that first agreement back in the fall talk about buying 25 million metric tons of new crop beans. We’ll see if they can lock that down and get a hard commitment,” he explains.

If that deal doesn’t happen the soybean market could fall apart.

“We know I think the last time we go around when we had to postpone the meeting, the market did sell off a little bit. And there is a lot of uncertainty to it. Like I said, President Trump sounds like he wants to go. But, you know, we’ll see, you know, with the war going on in the
Middle East, I think all, you know, we probably, you know, this thing could fall apart at the last minute,” he adds.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn made new highs for the move while December again was capped by the $5 mark.

McCormick says the funds are buying corn because of inflation concerns and the fertilizer issues.

“There’s no doubt about it I mean part of it is you are seeing some buying I think definitely on the fertilizer plate now most people agree that the fertilizer in the U.S. is expensive but there is no shortage. We’re pricing on a world market and if our prices are too cheap somebody from the rest of the world will come in and buy it and ship it back there but it’s here,” he says.

The world is worried if the Strait isn’t reopened there is going to be a shortage for fall needs and South American needs.

He adds another thing attracting investor money is the ethanol grind and the price of ethanol compared to gasoline, which is much cheaper.

$5 December Corn?
So it may be just a matter of time here before December takes out the $5 level but how far can it run before farmer selling caps the rally?

He says, Well, it’s a situation where we saw a lot of farmers selling here this week as the market tried to push into that $5 level. And then I would argue as we get through that $5 level, you’re probably going to hear a backoff of selling. And then you get back up, I believe you had the contract high, I believe was right around $5.12. That’ll be the next level resistance. I mean, now the question is where are farmers going to be comfortable selling versus the speculators that want to own it?”

Six weeks ago he says farmers would have jumped at $5 corn but now there is hesitancy tied to weather and fertilizer concerns.

“So people are very hesitant to sell it and if that farmer’s not there to sell against that spec money coming in that will allow this market to move higher,” he says.

Wheat Market High In?
The wheat market saw some recovery on Friday but has corrected off the two year highs hit on Wednesday in both winter wheat classes.

So it the top in?

McCormick says, “Right now I would argue it’s a little bit more of a profit taking week. Remember, we wrapped up the week here just on Thursday. The market was way, way technically overbought, a little bit of a correction. The corn wheat spread was out of whack as well. The other thing maybe generated a little bit of profit taking and generated some selling potentially was we are importing wheat from Poland, I believe, which shows you the price of our wheat has gotten so high that you can make it comparable to bring in competition. That will limit the upside momentum.”

However, he doesn’t think the weather story is over.

“We’ve still got a long way to go. There’s not a lot of rain in the forecast. I’ve had clients that are still trying to adjust for the losses they think
they had due to the severe frost damage that they had here a week, 10 days ago. We’ve got more cold weather coming in. I’m not completely convinced that this wheat market is done with going up,” he says.

Wheat Production Losses
How much of the hard red winter wheat crop has been lost? Some estimates are as high as 200 million bushels.

McCormick says, “I would argue somewhere around 200 million on the low and maybe 300 million on the high end. Now, I know that’s a lot. But remember, we did have a big crop a year ago. So the overall supply is still relatively comfortable. That’s part of the debate of the market right now and that’s why we may not have put the top in because we just don’t know.”

He thinks USDA will make some of that adjustment in the May 12 WASDE in the first balance sheet for new crop.

Cattle Make Record Highs Then Fall
The cattle market made new contract and record highs in both live and feeder cattle futures on Friday, then ended lower.

So was that just some profit taking or the talks that packers were going to start kill cuts next week?

“I think kill cuts are part of it, but I think a lot of it was profit taking. And we had one heck of a move higher. I think we rallied $15 in roughly six days or something like that. Just one heck of a strong move. And I think some people decided, hey, they want to take some money off the table
right now. I mean, we know the story, Michelle, the cattle supply continues to be incredibly tight. We’re also moving into a time of year where the demand tends to ramp up as you go into the spring and summer barbecue grilling season,” he explains.

The key will be if the consumer is willing to pay the higher prices for beef with the spike in gas prices.

“We are in a different situation than we were last time prices were up. You have gasoline prices here outside of the Chicago suburbs trading at $5, outside of Detroit at $6. So, the question now is how much can the consumer take?”

And will they trade down to cheaper proteins.

Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies Case

The hog market was down Thursday and Friday with the first case of pseudorabies in a small commercial hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

The market was pricing in the uncertainty but how low will it go?

McCormick says he thinks the low is close. “Usually it takes one to three days to price in these negative headlines. Like you said, we’ve heard it a couple of days ago. So hopefully we’re close. It was definitely disappointing. Like you said, we haven’t had a case like this in 2004. So getting that headline definitely was a surprise to the market. And, you know, kind of a knee jerk reaction you get when you get these surprise stories.”

Cattle Futures Hit Record Highs, Are $400 Feeders Next? Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies

Fri, 01 May 2026 16:06:07 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans higher Friday, with hogs lower.

Feeders Hit Record Highs, How High Will Prices Go?
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday’s open and quickly moved into record high territory.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs.

Feeder are back as the leaders in the complex but how high will prices go now that prices are back up into record highs?

He says, “It does feel like, okay, live cattle had already made their contract highs. Feeders were next. So, what numbers can we grab? I’ve heard the $380. I’ve heard the $390. I’ve heard the $400. We’re all just reaching, making up numbers that we can. We’ve already seen eight weights spring $400 in sale barns in the North. So it’s not something out of the ordinary that can’t happen. So once we bust through, it feels like, yeah, they have the legs to do it.”

He stresses that this could be the last higher push for a while.

“We’re going to want to be ready for it. I think this is our last charge higher. I guess it’s feeling like we’re getting towards the ninth inning of this. I think we’ve probably heard that a few times, but this is a rally that is going to be the one that’s going to be the one that we’re going to want to sell, I guess. So the chance to get to $4 is there. It really could happen,” he adds.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs First
Live cattle had already hit record highs earlier in the week and took out those levels again on Friday.

The market says some end of month profit taking Thursday but charged back higher Friday morning chasing cash.

Record cash trade broke already on Tuesday at $11, $12 higher than last week at $258 in the North, $255 to $256 in the South.

He says it caught the market by surprise, “I mean, that’s not something that’s normal. And it’s odd because when we were getting bid the $246, And the market wasn’t trading as hot as it was. I think the packers could have just went to $248 and bought all of the show lists and bought all
of the cattle. The fact that they waited another week, was it a shoot, you caught me bluffing move? Or was there somebody that’s really long, this board that wanted it to go higher? I don’t know and we won’t know. But regardless. Big charge higher, $12.”

He says bids started Tuesday at $250 and quickly went to $252 and then to $255.

“I thought that would do it. And then was just surprised when I started hearing that everybody was passing it and then get to $258, which a lot of people did get that and did trade that. You could get it for shorter. You could get two over the August for basis contracts. So, the packer was trying to get as many cattle around them as they can. And I would believe that everything on the show list, if you’re passing that kind of price, I don’t know what you’re waiting for,” he adds.

He hasn’t seen anything like it since 2014 but it was a big inventory grab and packers bought for delayed delivery as well.

Packers Buy Ahead of Kill Cuts
Packers were aggressively getting inventory as they are talking about kill cuts starting next week.

“Just hearing that there’s some majors that are going to start kill cuts next week, start to slow down the chain. And I mean, it’s just, it’s how tight we are. In this cattle industry, we’re, you know, 8% down, 8 to 9% down on steer to heifer slaughter this year. Cow slaughter is way down. Dairy cow slaughter is down. It’s just there’s still a shortage. So this last little push is all on supply, in my opinion. And I think that’s how the packer is trying to manage it,” he explains.

He says they are cutting kills to get boxed beef to move higher and improve their margins and the industry is still down a plant from a strike.

How High Will Live Cattle Futures Run?
Live cattle have continued to push into record high areas but how high will prices go?

Varilek says it is hard to even project because there are no technical areas on the charts to even compare to now.

“You’re up in new territory. You’re just grabbing, you know whatever number comes to your mind somebody wants to say a really high number so they can get remembered. I would rather try to do you guys some good rather than just make up a number up high and try to throw it to you that’s just that’s all made up,” he adds.

But he does say it depends not just on supply but demand.

“For me it’s just that this demand is going to have to pick up if we’re going to keep these live cattle running through and that’s the part that’s seeming to be just a little bit lacking. Seeing mixed feelings on what these steak cuts are doing. You know, the ribeye rolls are down. Usually we’re trying to, you know, see how high we can get those or how much a consumer is going to pay for them this time of year in the red hot grilling season, Mother’s Day weekend coming up and we’re actually dropping them a little bit. So I don’t like that,” he further explains.

Plus, he says with energy prices soaring it is hitting consumer pocketbooks which could also ratchet back demand.

Hogs Fall on Iowa Pseudorabies Case
Lean hog futures were down on Thursday and again Friday with the uncertainty tied to the first case of pseudorabies in a hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

“So it’s five boars that were shipped, you know, were. tested positive and some were shipped from Texas to Iowa. So sounding like it was show pigs, not sure. Can’t totally confirm that, but that would make sense on how that happened,” he says.

However, the disease is manageable according to Varilek.

“So we have vaccination capabilities already, protocol in place. So, for me it’s okay I think we’re going to be able to eradicate this once again and make this a short-lived kind of a worry here because it it is something that that’s real and I mean it’s something that can have you know
they could be dead within 48 to 72 hours. Hogs are a great host likely mixed with some feral hogs so it is around.”

Is it Bullish or Bearish?
Varilek says it does severely cut production which takes supply off the market which is bullish.

However, it is still a market uncertainty.

“So uncertainty is always bearish. Packers are trying to note some certain timeframes where they would kill hogs with pseudo rabies. So they were still entering, you know. you know, the meat supply. We weren’t worried about it back then. So because they had windows where you could slaughter those hogs. So a lot to digest here real fast. Everybody’s Googling pseudorabies and trying to learn as much as they can here real fast,” he adds.

Nov Soybeans Hit Contract Highs, Corn Also Higher
Corn and soybeans were higher early with November soybeans making new contract highs.

Varilek soybeans are following the new contract highs in bean oil.

“That seems to be the biggest thing, just the energy is staying so strong. And that’s making a lot of the headlines, the war. and how high crude oil is. So, I think that those markets are starting to respect that. I mean from a production side yeah you said more acres we’re seeing a little bit of replant we’ve got some frost. Which usually those rallies that are based off of frost and replant those are rallies that are meant to be sold. But I don’t think that that’s all of this I do think it’s energy,” he states.

Can Dec Corn Get Above $5?
Corn is also higher on the biofuels push with strong ethanol margins and profits.

With $100 crude oil corn could stay supported for a while and chew through some of the large ending stocks.

So will Dec corn get above $5?

Varilek says, “So we’ve got a bar right there, $5. We’ve seen it fail there a few times. Now I think if you just poke through it. I think you’re going to get some follow through strength on it just because it’s been such a number. Oh, that looks easy. Just sell it right below five bucks here and let it break. But those triple tops never hold, they kind of say. So I feel like we’re going to be able to get through it and might get some follow
through.”

He adds that the funds are long corn and the news may finally be good enough to rally the corn and grain markets.

Dec Corn and Wheat see New Highs Before Fading: Live Cattle Chase Record Cash

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 21:39:28 GMT

Grains ended mostly higher except soft red winter wheat. Cattle ended mixed, hogs higher.

Grains Mostly Higher Chasing War Headlines
Grains ended mostly higher on Wednesday chasing war headlines with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and crude oil soaring $6 to $7 and looking poised to take out the March highs.

Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the grain markets were supported by money flow and funds were buying adding risk premium tied to war, inflation fears tied to higher energy prices and weather.

“Big up move in crude oil on Wednesday afternoon. And I think that’s tied back to the comments that are coming out of Trump. The ceasefire, the two-week ceasefire extension expires on Wednesday, expired on Wednesday night. Trump has made it pretty clear that we’re preparing for a lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as that stays closed, we’re getting no energy, no fertilizer coming out of that. The longer we prolong that shortage, if you will, I think the more acute the problem becomes,” he says.

He says the longer it lasts the more the inflation concerns rise.

“The big move in oil, it spills over into the food commodities and particularly into the grains, whether it’s the biofuel connection or the outright just, you know, food connection that goes along with that. We’ve seen buying interest perk up there and money flowing into the complex.”

Wheat Makes New Highs Then Fades
All three classes of wheat hit new highs early Wednesday with new contract highs in hard red spring wheat and 22 month highs in hard red winter and soft red winter, before fading.

Chatterton says dry weather has been driving the hard red winter wheat market.

“Certainly, we’re looking at weather and what the production potential is in that hard red wheat crop, particularly the dryness in western Kansas. We had some more frost overnight. It didn’t help the situation,” he explains.

The other risk comes from inflation fears he says.

“I think the inflation play and just money flowing into our complex is the other side of that so a little bit of a marriage of those two and when you look at that and your money manager placing money into the grains complex wheat is where that fund length has not been present. So, it’s the natural absorber of that,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking
The markets ended off their highs due to some farmer selling and profit taking as the market was overbought.

“Not enough damage here to really call any kind of a trend change or any kind of a top action in that chart.”

Still he thinks wheat prices could go higher until rains start falling.

“I think until we can get some assurance that you know the rains are going to start, the crop is going to stabilize these production ideas are going to stop going down you know we started at 700 million then it was 650 million then it was 625 and it was 600 now we’re sub 600 on that hard red wheat production number in some some analysts mind. So, we need to stop that trend and until we do I think that that upside emains open here,” he says.

Dec Corn Makes New Contract High, Does it Take Out $5?
The corn market has seen spillover support from higher wheat and crude oil and was also putting some inflation premium in.

December corn made a new contract high by 1 cent and then faded. So will it take out $5 eventually?

Chatterton says, “Yeah, I think we’re right on the cusp of it here. And again, I think, we’re well supported here and as being as close to that target as we are, I suspect that we make a, you know, make a move to and slightly above that. What happens from there, I guess we’ll have to see. But, you know, the market to me remains well supported again until we can get some kind of resolution in that Strait or Hormuz.”

Ethanol Production Down
Despite the run up in energy prices the ethanol production number was down 31,000 barrels per day for the week.

Chatterton says that is due to regular maintenance.

“We had the EIA data out on Wednesday at mid-session and another kind of sub par production week for ethanol. I think that’s just a sign that plants are taking their normal seasonal maintenance and a little bit of downturn here. Not anything that I would see as a long-term problem. If you look at kind of where we’re at production last week. Down 3% year over year. That is a little concerning. But overall, corn usage for ethanol is still up year over year. We are running a little bit below the seasonal pace to hit that USDA full-year target. But I think there’s plenty of time to recover from that. And blending fuels should certainly be in demand here as we go forward here, looking at the price of gasoline and diesel fuel,” he explains.

Planting Slowed
U.S. planting progress on Monday showed corn at 25%, 6% ahead of average and soybeans at a record 23%.

However, many planters are sidelined the last few days with heavy rains so will that negatively slow those numbers on Monday.

He says, “Yes, I suspect the progress numbers are still going to run ahead of normal here, Michelle, and not indicate any big overall problem. Now regionally there’s issues here. We had a pretty overdone rain here in central Illinois where I live over three inches here for the week so far and on top of some newly planted seeds for both corn and soybeans. So a little bit of replanting to be done. There’ll be a little bit of catch up that gets done.”

He says the cold temperatures will also slow emergence but so far there are no pending issues for traders to be concerned about.

I think the temperatures this week are going to prevent the crop from really you know, growing and accelerating, whether that’s germinating and coming out of the ground or just are just gaining on,

Soybeans Follow Bean Oil
Soybean futures were also higher following soaring soybean oil prices. The July contract was up 160 points and made new contract highs again supporting the soybeans.

“That certainly helps underpin what’s happening when you look at these crush rates whether it’s cash or board I mean these are some phenomenal $3 plus per bushel type crush rates no reason that these crushers won’t be running as fast as they possibly can or pushing through as much product as they can. The capacity constraint of of that is probably going to be tested here and going to be the issue going forward in terms of crush demand,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Margins
Crush margins have been running over $3.50 per bushel so very close to record highs.

“Historically, we’ve had some blips above that on a very short-term basis, but this time around, we’re looking at a little bit more of a sustained move that the change in the RVO and the biofuel regulations that have come out of the administration here, out of the EPA of late, are really changing the ideas here. And it looks like, you know, if we’re true to the numbers here, we’re going to follow those numbers to the letter of the law,”

So he says the U.S. refiners are going to need to not only use soybean oil, but probably import oils from other parts of the world.

“And on cue, we’re getting stories about China’s used cooking oil making its way to the U.S. West Coast here again,” he adds.

November Soybeans Near Contract Highs
November soybeans, despite 3.5 million or more additional acres expected this year, got within a penny of contract highs on Wednesday.

Will that market get over that technical barrier?

Chatterton says, “I think it’s a little bit more of a measure of approach here as we approach that level and kind of try and get on top of it. And where can we go? But, you know, the the outside markets or the oil markets are really floating all boats here. You know, so we’ll see how high that they can take us. In the meantime, like I said, the demand story has not changed. And, you know, we’re going to need those bean acres going forward here in the U.S. if we’re going to hold this kind of a domestic crush pace.”

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, But For How Long?
The FOMC meeting wrapped up Wednesday and the Fed left rates unchanged which was no surprise.

However, with high energy prices driving inflation when is the Fed going to have to change its course of action here?

Chatterton says it is a very interesting scenario.

“You’ve got, you know, Warsh coming in as the new Fed chair. It’s a little bit unclear right now as to whether the current Fed chair is going to step aside or whether he’s going to, you know, run out his term here into the new year. And so depending on how that plays, if you get a new Fed chairman who has, I won’t say assured President Trump that he’s going to cut rates, but who has openly stated that he felt rates were too high. It can be very hard for him, I think, to initially raise rates in a situation where even if inflation is telling him to do so. So got a little bit of a cat and mouse game, I think, there going on,” he explains.

Still he thinks the market is better rates will go no where.

Live Cattle Make Record Highs on Record Cash
Feeder cattle futures set back on Wednesday, but nearby live cattle futures ended higher and made record highs.

This was on the heels of record cash trade which ranged from $250 to $258 live and $392 to $400 dressed.

Packers had to pay from $4 to $14 more for cattle this week to procure inventory so their margins are in the red.

But is the market looking anywhere close to a top?

you know, are the packers starting to bleed enough here that we’re going to roll this thing over

Chatterton says, “In reality, they were very aggressive buyers early in the week here, yesterday and today, midweek, you know, coming after cattle tells me that they’re short bought here and that they need the product. And even with margins getting worse, we’ve got them somewhere around a negative $140 a head on the spot marketplace. They’re continuing to come after cattle.”

He thinks cutout values will need to go higher to help balance out those negative margins.

“But for right now, you know, it’s really hard to call, you know, how high is high in this marketplace. They continue to bid up for cattle and show a need for them. So definitely the producers and the feeders have the upper hand here in the short term,” he adds.

Beef Demand Not Slowing
Even at these high prices it doesn’t seem like consumer demand is faltering.

“We’ve talked about record retail values, record wholesale values, the durability of the U.S. consumer and the demand base that’s going on there. So far, we continue to see that we’ve got the choice in the select basically neck and neck here in terms of, you know, not a premium for that choice or the select. I think that’s one thing. These grading rates with. you know more prime more choice you know coming out of the animal or out of the carcass here really kind of changing the old rules on that in real time,” he states.
and

Can Feeders Retest the Highs?
Feeder cattle set back on Wednesday with higher corn prices a limiting factor but Chatterton thinks there is a possibility to retest the highs.

“With the fund interest coming into the marketplace it looks like that door may be open. We had Florida announcing that they’re going to you know restrict cattle coming from the Texas border counties and require an inspection before they come into the state. I think that probably is a sign or can be at least interpreted as a sign that the Texas border opening or the U.S. Mexico border opening is nowhere close, that it’s still pretty far down the road and some things to be worked out there. So feeders to me still well supported,” he explains.

Hogs Higher on Technical Buying
Lean hog futures had a strong day with triple digit gains and June closed above the 20-day moving average.

He thinks the market saw some technical buying.

“Hogs have been, in a sideways pattern here, a little bit beat up. We’ve had that fund position get paired back a little bit. And then all of a sudden, you know, yesterday we got into that gap that was left two Fridays ago on the June chart. We weren’t able to kind of come out the other side yesterday, but we did that today. I think it’s a very positive technical sign with these funds a little bit, a little bit more dry powder than maybe what they’ve had here of late,” he says

Grain and Livestock Rally With Risk On Buying, Weather Concerns

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 21:34:50 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended higher on Monday.

Risk on Buying
The grain and livestock futures saw commodity wide speculative buying to start the week according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.

The markets had a risk on tone due to the lack of resolution to the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz but weather also drove the market.

“And when you really don’t hear bullish stories to drive the market, it probably is more just fund direction. And the funds have been buying everything recently, right? You know, a little bit of wheat even. They finally bought corn back again after getting out of a lot of their longs earlier. I think the weak longs are out. They’re back in buying. Even soybeans today, really good buying, which was surprising seeing how long they already are in that soybean complex.”

Funds Length in Soybean Complex a Concern?
When you add up the fund long position in the soybean complex it is already pushing over 470,000 contracts.

So do the funds keep pushing the long side of the soybean complex?

Bosse says, “I guess today the answer to that is yes, they will. That’s surprising though to me because that’s like the fifth largest combined they’ve ever been. We combine all of them, but you look today, all of them were up. Soybean meal was up, soybean oil was up. Usually you see those contradict each other a little bit, right, and spreads too. We’re entering kind of a different era in soybeans where crush and soybean oil is the strongest demand. It used to be meal was the biggest demand. Now meal is kind of the byproduct we kind of have to get rid of. And that’ll probably be through our export market.”

He says he’s not as bearish soybeans as he once was.

“I still think export demand is going to have to get trimmed down a little bit by USDA, but not the 100 to 150 million bushels I was threatening before,” Bosse adds.

Frost in Argentina
On Monday meal was the leader on short covering but also due to possible frost or freeze damage to the soybean crop in Argentina as temperatures dipped Monday morning.

Bosse says, “Remember, Argentina is still the lead exporter in soybean meal throughout the world, so if you did hurt that crop at all, it’s soybean meal that should react first here. Now, I really question how much damage, but it’s one of those, we’re the futures market, we’re going to put the premium first, and then they’ll ask those questions about how much production was really damaged. The reason I’m saying that is they’re harvesting some, and most U.S. producers know, well, if you’re harvesting frost, isn’t going to really hurt the beans. But of course, those are big countries in South America, North to South. So there’s probably some late maturing soybeans that it could have been dinged for sure,” he explains.

New Crop Soybean Upside Potential?
With an additional 3.5 million more acres of soybeans expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2026 if the U.S. does not get China in buying the 25 million metric tons of new crop soybean promised the ending stocks figure could quickly balloon.

Bosse thinks there will be more acres added to USDA’s estimate in the Prospective Plantings Report and China is still less than certain.

“I really question the whole China buying, even the 25 MMT for new crop. It’s just world stocks are record high and prices are cheaper than U.S. I think Argentina is like $1.20 cheaper than us. Brazil’s like 60 cents cheaper than us. So, it just it doesn’t really make a lot of economic sense for them to come and buy from us. I mean I get there’s the whole lot of political reasons but that can only go so far,” he adds.

So, he is looking at put options to hedge new crop soybeans.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn futures made new highs for the move on Monday following wheat and soybeans but Bosse thinks the market has its own story.

“You know, the war in Iran, even though I am really tired of reporting about it in the Trump posts back and forth, it’s still ongoing. The Strait is
still closed for the most part. That means higher fertilizer, higher fuel prices for the world. To me, that’s a big story that corn should have rallied. quite a bit more than this for the last month and we just haven’t you know not to mention the whole you know will we get all the acres planted,” he says.

States like North Dakota look cold and wet in the 8-14 day forecast and they aren’t alone.

“I wouldn’t say we’re late or delayed planting. I don’t think we have to rally on that just yet but it’s starting to raise my eyebrows a little bit they’re like oh we could have an issue here. So, I think corn has its own story and should continue to rally higher,” he says.

New Crop Corn Adding Input Premium?
New crop or December corn is closing in on the March high of $4.98 1/2 and it could be putting in some input premium according to Bosse.

“I mean, that’s where the supply could change a lot in new crop, right? World stocks are actually like at a seven or eight year low. Our export demand is phenomenal. So if we decrease acres a little bit or we don’t use as much fertilizer as we should, a new crop situation could be quite tight, maybe like a 1.6 to 1.7 for an ending stock. Well, that’s fairly bullish and this market should rally,” he explains.

However, he says some times the market just sees bull spreading. “Because people just want to buy the old crop bushels instead of even worrying about the new crop supply. But you’re right, it’s the new crop that should put a premium in, but I doubt we’ll see it.”

Lack of Farmer Selling
Meanwhile, July corn did see a chart breakout and that could be due to the lack of farmer selling because of farmers focusing on planting.

“Absolutely, 100%. Nobody wants to go fire up a truck and haul any grain in right now. Everyone’s trying to get the crop planted. June is more the month where, okay, let’s empty bins out and that. So no, farmer selling has dried up. Sadly, I can see nationwide the base is improving. It really isn’t up here for us in the Northern Plains. We’re still at wide basis up here. But like you said, that’s kind of part of having that big old crop and a lot of farmer supply is still sitting out there,” he says.

Wheat Makes Fresh Highs
The wheat market also made more new highs for the move adding weather premium, especially with the drought in the Southern Plains.

How much more weather premium does the market need to add?

Bosse says, “I could actually see it going up quite a bit more. I could see KC wheat obviously getting to $7.00 and I could see it really on a chart a continuous chart banner going to $7.50 but that’s if it doesn’t rain.”

If it does rain he thinks the market will start trying to price in a lower yield number.

“And if you start talking to national wheat yield below 42 bushels an acre, well, it gets pretty tight in the U.S. Now, sadly, Michelle, I think we could just ration export demand and just bring it all back later. But it’s helping to push like Minneapolis wheat higher, which is the wheat that’s grown in my area up here. And I like that. I’m looking at it as an opportunity to start getting hedges in place,” he says.

Spring Wheat Planting Delays
The spring wheat market is concerned about getting all of the acres planted and already started with historically low acres to begin with.

“Right, we don’t have a lot of wiggle room there. We didn’t start up with high acres and we can trim some off. It sounds like from the west of me, like closer to the river, we’ve gotten a lot of the spring wheat in. Some of it even coming up, looking nice. But North Dakota, from the clients I talked to up there, not a lot of activity yet. It’s just been very damp soils. They just haven’t gotten going. But I think we’ll see that in the crop progress report this afternoon. And so, you know, the premium’s probably justified for now,” he states.

Cattle Up a Third Day
Cattle futures were up for a third day and are still recovering off the lows scored last Thursday.

Bosse says part of the reason is the market is not as concerned about the border reopening to Mexican cattle imports after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona.

“And, you know, some guys are trying to link it back to more screw worm cases being found in Mexico. You know, maybe they’re just not going to open the border now for a while. I had always heard things that the border wasn’t going to be open even until July anyway. And at that point, it was going to be just small stages from west to east. So to me, it shouldn’t affect things like June fat cattle or nearby feeders but you know the market takes that news and runs with it,” he explains.

With that meeting not happening speculation continues to run high on when the border will reopen but for now the market looks stronger.

“This week cash could be higher, boxes are higher, we got some big holidays coming up for beef demand. I’m excited about the market for this week at least,” he says.

Market Bounces Technically
Plus the market also held technically where it needed to.

“We were getting to some little retracement levels that I was watching fairly close. And when this market sells off, I ask myself over time, is this it? Are we done? Are we going to crash back now? But for the umpteenth time in a row now, we were bouncing off support. We corrected the overbought position. Now the question is, can we go back and test the contract highs or even make new contract highs? I guess we’ll have to see here,” he states.

He is also concerned about what happens if screw worm gets to the U.S.

“I’m still worried about it, especially as the temps get warm. It’s going to come across in something, a deer, a raccoon, something it’s going to come across on,” he says.

Hogs Bottoming?
Lean hogs were mostly higher on Monday after higher weekly closes. So is the market trying to bottom?

Bosse thinks technically the market is trying to hold plus the seasonal low usually hit around this time.

“Demand should be stronger here this next month. And, you know, there’s still always these questions about the U.S. production. Sounds like there’s been a lot of disease pressure. It’s really hard to get confirmation on that now anymore, but I’ve heard some of that. Now, don’t
look for China to come and buy any of our pork, though. As far as global supplies, it’s very large and we’re higher priced than the rest of the world,” he adds.

Cattle Bottoming as Border/Strike Talk Fear Eases and Cash Ideas Improve

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:29:34 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains are all higher early Monday.

Cattle Extend Gains a Third Day
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher on Monday for a third day.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday.

Border Fears Subside
Part of the bounce also came as fears subsided regarding a possible reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

The fear started already on April 17 when USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Texas for the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility to help combat New World screwworm (NWS).

However, Rollins was also scheduled for a trip to Arizona on Friday, April 24 which renewed fears of an announcement.

So, Kooima says when Rollins said Thursday she was canceling the trip the market breathed a sigh of relief.

“She canceled her trip due to biosecurity reasons as you’ve got a case that’s supposedly was within 60 miles of the Texas border even though this port that she was going to go to out there by Douglas is almost 800 miles away from there,” he explains.

Cash Market Firms With Board
Following the recovery in the futures the feedlots started to pass on packer bids of $246 being offered for fed cash cattle.

Kooima says there was some trade at $246 and $386 dressed but by Friday some feeders in the North were passing on $248 as feedlots regained leverage.

“I certainly have a little more optimism this week on a Monday than I did last week for cash. I think there’s a real shot we can get back to $250. We shall see. But the show list up here, very small. And we’re in that kind of that in-between time, Michelle, where the yearlings are largely gone. We’re trying to push these calves to get fat and the weather’s been great. So some of them are pretty close, but you know, this holding action type of a deal that we’ve had for a while, I think this holding action rally here is going to continue until it doesn’t,” he says.

He thinks producers will be slow to sell when it costs $1 to put gain on and so he thinks supplies will be tight for the next 30 to 45 days.

Fear of Potential Fort Morgan Plant Strike Ease
Early last Thursday, the market also sold off on fear that workers at the Cargill beef plant at Fort Morgan, Colorado, were going to walk out. Kooima says the plant did not slaughter Thursday, Friday or Monday while negotiations were taking place.

“Supposedly they were going to return to, or they were going to start negotiations this week. What I do know is that it sounds like this is not a union backed strike, that this is what they would call a wildcat strike, which people are kind of voluntary. I say, Hey, we’re leaving, you know, blah, blah, blah. I’m not certain as to what. their demands exactly are what the beef is or what they’re trying to what they’re trying to accomplish other than I suppose the obvious, more pay less work,” he adds.

The plant has a capacity of 4,700 but is currently slaughtering only around 4,000 currently. Still he says the market has faded the news like it isn’t that concerned.

“It might affect that cash market, maybe that Western Nebraska, Colorado market, maybe more than anything else. But I’ll keep you posted. At this point, it’s kind of day to day. And I think the market would tell you that they don’t expect it’s going to last long. Otherwise, I think we’d be trading worse,” he says.

Plus, shackle space is at a surplus to available cattle right now softening the blow.

However, he says if boxed beef prices don’t improve soon to help get packer margins back in the black it could lead to additional plant closures.

“But unless this box beef catches here somebody’s going to have to drop again. I mean, the packer, that side of the industry is not just going to sit there and merrily lose $200 a head every day without closing another place or severely cutting this kill back.”

Funds Stay Long Cattle?
The latest Commitment of Traders Report indicated funds are still long around 135,000 futures and option positions and have exited about 1,800 positions as of last Tuesday.

So is there a fear that the commodity fund traders are going to continue to liquidate just because the market already hit the record highs?

He says, “You bet there’s a fear, at least for some of us, for me. That would be the gorilla in the room here. The fundamentals, really good.

June cattle, probably. a little higher priced normally than what they would be basis wise I think last year we were like $8 or $10 under cash. So if you get $248 and the basis was like last year you could have June cattle at $240 or $238. It’s not it’s at $247 okay with the last cash the best of the last cash at $248. Sp, is it that the cash is too low or are the futures too high?”

Hogs Bounce or Bottom?
Lean hog futures were higher Monday and had a higher weekly close last week.

So is the market putting in a bottom and how much upside is there?

Kooima says, “Hog charts have a nice looking formation, you know, had that big outside day down where it looked like they were in a wreck on Thursday, came back gap higher last week and just barely by the skin of our teeth, we’ve been holding that gap, which is good. So I would like to get us above $103.70, above the 20-day to make me feel just a bit better about it.”

He says feeder pigs are running nearly $140 a head, which is a function of tight supply creaated by another round of big-time disease problems in some of the farrowing units in the North,” he explains that has him a bit friendly.

Grains Rally, Corn Makes Fresh Highs
Grains were higher early Monday with old crop corn making fresh highs for the move.

Corn has received some help from the weather rally in wheat but may be trading its own weather concerns with heavy rains over the weekend in some key production areas of the Midwest.

“And get used to it. This is what you and I will be talking about for the next three months, right? Whether it did or if it didn’t, or did it rain where it’s supposed to.”

However, he is not overly bullish due to the large carryout and poor basis in the Northwestern Corn Belt.

“So we’re right at halfway back on the July corn on this last move so that we’re going to learn a little bit about the market right here, I’d love to see the basis tighten and it usually is tightest when guys are out in the field worried about planting corn they’re not sitting by their grain bin loading corn,” he says.

Soybeans have been sideways for the last six weeks says Kooima, and he thinks the crude oil and bean oil story is about running its course too.

“I don’t know how far you can stretch that rubber band. So a long way to go here. We got a long growing season and we’ll see once,” he adds.

Cattle Bounce as Border/Strike Fears Fade, But is the Correction Over? Grains Eye Weather

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 15:49:25 GMT

Ag markets were mostly lower early Friday, except cattle.

Cattle Bottoming?
Cattle futures were higher early Friday with follow through buying after a higher close Thursday.

Futures are trading back above key support areas on the charts so is the correction over?

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says $243 was the line in the sand for the June live cattle or funds would liquidate.

“Well, we tested it. We broke it. Broke some short-term trend lines. So it was a little bit dicey for a minute. But then we were able to recover. I think it almost got to a spot where we’re saying, okay, we have some damage. Now what? What’s the follow-through? And then it just, kind of started gaining confidence slowly, able to close higher yesterday following through today,” he describes.

He says the market was overbought and due for a correction so he’s hopeful that has been completed especially since May is a strong month for beef.

Wild Ride Thursday
Thursday was the real test for the market for feeders as they went limit down for a time on talk that the beef plant in Fort Morgan, CO was not slaughtering cattle as workers walked off the job and were going to strike.

Varilek says the plant slaughters over 4,000 head a day and that story is still not fully confirmed.

“Yeah, and we’re all trying to find as much information on that as we can. And just like the last strike, hard to find it. It seems to be a little bit quieter. But yeah, they actually walked out at Fort Morgan and they canceled some loads, canceled their Thursday, Friday kills was what I had heard. And that they were planning on getting together with some talks. They were confident that. They might not take that long, you know, so that’s where we sit. More uncertainty, you know, thrown into this market. That’s one of the reasons that we really crashed.”

He says they will watch for developments over the weekend and see if there are still loads heading to the plant or not for clues.

“So if I would say right now, we’ll trade it like it’s more short term and not break the market because it isn’t a long term thing,” he adds.

Market Recovers as Rollins Cancels Arizona Event
The cattle market recovered well off the lows and closed back higher on Thursday on news that Brooke Rollins, Secretary of Ag, canceled her trip to Arizona on Friday alleviating the fears she might make an announcement about a reopening of the border to Mexican cattle.

He says, “The reason we’re able to recover maybe was because, you know, she had said no announcement last Friday and that she planned to physically to go herself to Arizona to you know, check things out. And so then we just kicked that can down the road.”

He says there have been more screw worm cases 60 miles south of the border which may have caused USDA to reverse course or delay a reopening.

Fed Cash Market Lower
The fed cash market was also pressured by this week’s lower cash trade at $246 in the both the South and North, plus some $386 dressed trade. Those are all $2 lower than the previous week.

However, with the board rebounding any additional cattle will likely be bought at $248 as producers have regained leverage.

“Packers were a couple dollars lower they’re sitting at $246 and not really moving just letting cattle come to them. I mean a few sales but now that this board has recovered some I think they’ve got what they’re going to get at $246 and if they’re going to want some they’re going to
have to start to move it up to $248, $250. There will still be plenty of guys that that want to get that,” he explains.

He says the market is just finishing up on yearlings. “You know these long day fed yearlings that you know we’ve had we’re not usually selling yearlings here in April but that’s the nature of the beast right now as we know how to make them bigger we’ve got cheap cost of gains the feeding weather is outstanding just these huge gains on these cattle then we’re going to crawl into that calf crop and they are not going to be carrying the weight that these yearlings were. So, that’s the thing that I alluded to about May that there’s always that old saying, never be short June cattle in the month of May.”

With Mother’s Day coming up he says demand will also be strong and so packers may need to move cash up.

Cattle Resilient
Varilek also points out the cattle market has been resilient through war headlines, the down in the stock market and even higher gas prices at the pump.

“We’ve talked about all of these other stories and I don’t know that war premium or the energy prices has really crept into the beef. I mean, we wouldn’t be trading cash cattle $4 off of the all time high if we were worried about the consumers, really getting strapped.”

Lean Hogs Bottoming?
Lean hog futures were lower on Friday with some profit taking after a mostly higher week but is the market bottoming?

Varilek speculates, “Yeah, we finally saw the cash and the cutout jump a little bit, provided us with a gap higher after the third leg lower, kind of been on the lower trade. That was some good action. It’s like, okay, maybe some respect, I guess,.”

But he points out numbers will really need to tighten for the market to justify the premiums in the deferred futures.

“We do see some of these deferred markets trading stronger than the front. We’re waiting on the cash. I think you get to July and August and they feel like, yeah, we want to rally. We think that we should. $135 to $150 feeder pigs you know weighing 40 pounds I mean these are big prices that you’re having to pay if you want to fill those barns and so that keeps telling us that the supply is tight, it’s not there we need higher prices,” he adds.

He says the May contract is at a pretty good discount to June and that gap usually narrows but it hasn’t happened yet.

“So, the proof has not shown up yet to get this cash market rally, to, you know, prove me right.”

Grains Mixed to Lower Trading Weather
Wheat futures broke out to some fresh highs on Thursday on drought and frost concerns but is setting back early Friday on profit taking and some rain chances in the extended maps.

Corn and soybeans are easing with wheat but are also waiting for more direction on weather according to Varilek.

“I think we are just waiting. You know, what are these weather patterns? There’s areas that are getting lots of rain, too much rain. And then there’s others that are just it’s so dry we’re having dust bowl weather. So, you can find what you’re looking for in the weather right now and that’s typical every year,” he says.

Ultimately he thinks the crop will get planted and it is too early to get concerned.

So beyond weather the grains will need another story and right now the war and inflation news could spark buying but just not yet.

Grains Disappoint, See Profit Taking Off Highs Despite China Rumors: Cattle Hold Support

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 21:46:03 GMT

The soy complex was lower on Wednesday as well as wheat with fractional gains in corn. Live cattle ended lower, with feeder cattle and hogs mixed.

Soybeans and Bean Oil End Off Highs
Soybeans ended 10 3/4 lower on July at $11.79 1/2 with November down 10 1/2 at $11.56.

Soybeans made new highs for the move and November came within a 1/4 cent of the March highs overnight on talk of China looking for soybeans of the Pacific Northwest.

The market looked like it was ready to breakout but Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says soybeans hit chart resistance and saw profit taking.

“Profit taking was part of it. We have to keep in mind, too, as we go into the end of the month here, you’re also going to have some option expiration and first notice day against those May contracts. So any traction we get here in the short term could get faded. So far, that seems to be playing out.”

However, the deliver period is slow with producers in the field and he says once they’re done there will be some steady sales again in June.

Soy Processing Demand Hold up Soybeans
The board crush margins for soybeans are over $3.30 so they are huge and also helped drive the recent strength.

He says, “These processors probably went out there and locked all those margins in early. And so the only trade left is their out trade. The producer is pretty well out of beans. I think that’s part of this, you know, just contentment in the bean market that we’ve seen for the past month.”

China Buying Beans?
The rumors of China buying helped provide early support.

While there was no confirmation of the business Hudson says he wouldn’t rule it out before the mid-May meeting.

“I certainly think they could. I think it’s going to come down to quantities and timing. I would have confidence that you’re going to see that get pulled through. I would still favor that a lot of that, if it comes to us in a positive way, is still going to end up landing on the new crop balance sheet. But we have to remember back in February, they bought beans when it really wasn’t that advantageous for them to.”

He adds that if China has made some deals to help end the Iran war soybeans could be added to the mix, especially as inflationary pressures are continuing to build with high energy prices.

“That would be an eye opener for the trade because we’re about 100 million ahead on our crush demand. And if you have to bring our exports up to on this old crop, you know, how do you reconcile that on the balance sheet?”

Multi-Year Highs in Bean Oil
Soybean oil also hit multi-year and new contract highs before ending lower on the day. Is that reversal a concern?

Hudson says, “When you look at yesterday’s bar you know one day doesn’t really define a market and we continue to see a you know a lot of interest in this. I think the processor I think this will translate to a pretty strong bid as you get into harvest because I mentioned them locking in some of these margins in early even off the heels of the Venezuelan situation and then Iran got thrown on top and those margins have only gotten better.”

So he thinks they will be aggressive buyers at harvest through the end of the year.

Corn Also Hits Resistance
Corn was up for a third day on technical buying but ended well off session highs at $4.62 3/4 on the July, up 3/4 and December was a 1/2 higher at $4.82 1/4.

Hudson says that market also hit chart resistance and was pulled down by lower soybeans and profit taking.

“This is just kind of a resistance trade. You got the December back to the $4.85 and every month you go that’s closer to us in time. It seemed like it was just a little bit weaker and that’s evidence that those front end spreads are starting to give a little bit of that and once again we’ve got enough supply to meet the demand. So, as long as you don’t see a weather market I would expect that December to lead the way and maybe even the Dec 27 more prevalently if you don’t have any issues,” he adds.

Dec 27 Corn Adding Input Premium
He thinks Dec 27 corn is putting in some input premium tied to high priced fertilizer and diesel fuel.

“I think you have to. I mean, I think you have to sit here and question not only where our input costs here come harvest, but how do we see global acreage influenced here over the next six to eight months? We didn’t have a lot to lose here in the U.S. because so much was pre-booked. If it’s not getting on, it’s because they don’t want to pay it. But you could have some other places around the world here, be it for wheat or corn, where they simply don’t even have it available. And that inevitably is going to create some sort of a pinch. We just don’t know how much
yet,” he explains.

Old Crop Corn Capped
He says old crop corn prices are just capped because supplies are too big.

“And as soon as we get done with planting here, the farmer is going to be at the ready to continue trucking season again.”

Fund Liquidation
With option expiration on May options on Friday and first notice day coming up on May futures contracts could there be more long liquidation by the funds?

Hudson says, “They’re not holding a huge, huge position in any of these markets. I mean, I think it’s a tenable level in corn and beans. They’re really not holding much of a position at all in wheat. So I don’t see anything to exploit there. I think it’s going to be more about how they move those positions forward from the May to the July. And even coming into this week, we hadn’t seen a big pulling back in the open interest. So I would not be surprised to see a bit of weakness in this May-July spread. But as you go into, you know, after First Notice Day, you know, keep an eye on that spread as we go into delivery because I still think the processor needs corn they’re going to need to keep that flow and they know it’s out there but they need to keep the pace of it too.”

Wheat Prices in Weather Concerns?
The wheat market saw slight losses of 2 to 6 cents in the three classes on light profit taking and some rain chances in the extended forecast. However, are the weather concerns also priced into the market?

He says, “Yes and keep in mind you know we have some wheat to lose here in the us our stocks usage is still well over 40% so there’s still plenty
sitting around. I think this is more about how it evolves moving forward and how you could compound it. For example, if you got a bad stand and we rip that out and plant soybeans instead, that just adds to this building issue in the background.”

Cattle Hold Support
Live cattle futures were lower for a sixth day and saw more technical selling and long liquidation.

However, the market did hold support.

“Thus far, you know, you could still see the June maybe flush down into those mid-230s, but you’re probably gonna have to have a headline to help facilitate that, especially where you have cash trading right now. But with the concerns you have going into grilling season, you might have enough meat on the bone to take that off if there’s reason for it.”

Feeder Cattle Still Awaiting Border Reopening
The feeder cattle futures ended mixed on Wednesday and are trying to stabilize with the border reopening story still in the background.

A new New World Screwworm (NWS) case 60 miles from the Texas/Mexican border should keep the border closed but it is still political.

Hudson says, “It still is in the background, but it seems like the administration has been a lot more slow to make any comments. And maybe that’s due to the influence we saw earlier in the year because of it. You may have to get through this summer and get to some of these colder months before we can really feel good about having snuff that out and and I kind of think you’re going to be dealing with this all the way through that time frame.”

He thinks the situation is creating a new normal South of the border for feeding cattle as well.

Has the Fed Cash Market Topped?
Some light cash cattle trade has occurred at $246 live and $386 dressed but not enough for a test. Still, the lower trend may indicate a cash top is forming he says.

“But I don’t see no reason for it to completely collapse. You know, you could stop the ascent, but, you know, let’s face it, we’re not getting any more animals. You know, any sort of weakness is going to be bought up on the front end again anyway. So I see somewhat limited downside in there still, at least in the interim, especially after the little break that we’ve seen here,” he adds.

He also thinks the futures, at least the nearbys are trying to confirm a top. The jury is out on the deferreds.

“And again, that may mean that some of these back months hold themselves above water and eventually find a bid again. I don’t think that’s necessarily going away, but do we have to continue a lot higher right now? It just doesn’t feel like it. And if you have to turn that market and the energy complex higher again, if we don’t get some sort of a peace deal done or ceasefire done, then it’s going to continue to weigh on things as well,” he says.

Hogs End Mixed But Stabilizing?
Lean hog futures have bounced off the four month lows but is there a fundamental reason for the market to stabilize?

Hudson says, “I think it really comes down to timing. And the hog market actually got a little weaker than I expected testing that $100 mark in the June. I didn’t think we’d have to go down and do that all at once now. But the fact that we did, I think that’s kind of a tradable chart point now that as long as you hold that, I would see that there’s a decent chance of recovery effort back to $105. And then from there, we can maybe see what cattle do into summer.”

Cease Fire But Strait Closed
The markets are getting war fatigue with news the cease fire has been extended with Iran but the Strait is still closed which rallied the crude oil market again Wednesday.

Hudson says the long term impact of the higher energy prices is already starting to surface.

“Yeah. I mean, if you’re a company that has to do any sort of commerce, whether it’s energy or anything else, if you’ve already got a boat out there floating around, you might be committed to figuring out what needs to happen with it. But you’re not sending another one until you have
confirmation and assurance that you can actually do business the way you want to. In the meantime, people are going to try to reroute that, whether it’s fuel, fertilizer, anything that goes into that. A lot of petroleum products that we probably don’t think of in our everyday lives. And you’re seeing about 30% increase in a lot of that stuff. It’s twofold. It’s not only what’s going into the product, but it’s the freight to ship it around the world. And if you think about all those little widgets and every little Amazon box that we have sitting on our front doorstep, to me,
this is just the front end of this thing getting a lot worse here in the next six to eight months.”

So when will the market start trading inflation fears?

He says, “I think as you get into the third, end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth.”

Still it may not help support old crop grain prices and will have limited impact on new crop with trendline yields.

“But the upside is still somewhat limited as long as the USDA is going to have a reason to advertise trend line yields. And I don’t see any changing of that until maybe earliest end of June, but probably more prevalent with the September stocks report. And by then we’ll have an idea of what those yields look like.”

Grains Rally Led by Three Year Highs in Bean Oil: Cattle Fall

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 21:43:21 GMT

Grain and hog markets ended higher on Tuesday with cattle lower.

Soybeans and Soybean Oil Lead Rally
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday.

Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says bean oil hit a three-year high and was following crude oil but is still pricing in the positive RVO news.

“That’s been feeding it for quite some time. And then tied along with today’s obvious crude oil move higher, it looks like Trump’s ceasefire probably won’t get extended. So a little bit of that got traded today on the soybean oil side, I would argue,” he says.

Can Soybeans Extend the Rally?
He says new crop November soybeans also had a bit of a chart breakout.

“We were building in a wedge pattern lately and we kind of broke and slingshotted out of that thing today. And I’ve been waiting for that a little while just to see if it was going to be an up or down move. And it looks like that was a pretty good up move there,” he says.

July soybeans ran into chart resistance though around the $11.91 area and will need some bullish news to continue to move higher.

But can November soybeans extend gains?

“The November contract was only $0.04 from a contract high that we’ve had recently at $11.74 today. So right back to those highs. So a little bit of selling pressure there around that level, along with the July hitting up against that key resistance point, Michelle. So we’ll see if it has some
trouble above these levels or not. Or if crude oil continues to move, we keep getting something that can feed this soybean contract. But overall, I never saw anything super substantial for moving soybeans specifically higher today he adds.

Corn Follows Soybeans or Wheat?
Corn futures were higher initially following soybeans and bean oil but in past sessions has seen spillover from higher wheat.

Minor says, “I feel like corn has been playing follow the leader, and it’s been switching back and forth between wheat, specifically with some of their big up days, and then obviously with soybeans being up 10 most of the day today, it wanted to be up a couple cents as well. So it’s tried following those along on the days wheat’s been up and that correlates somewhat when we’ve had crude oil up or our outside market fundamentals moving a little bit.”

He says the spreads have also been rallying.

“And it could just be because of some funds coming in. It could be crude oil moving up. It could be some inflation hedging. It could be a little bit about the old crop balance sheet, just trying to buy a few bushels here up front during planting,” he explains.

Corn Hits Resistance
July corn also closed up into resistance at the $4.62 level and needs an additional bullish catalyst to break higher.

“Some of the cash fundamentals on corn and soybeans in these front months has been pretty important. We’ve been able to rally these spreads, tighten them up, narrow them up a little bit on old crop. And I think that’s just lack of movement across the countryside. I think once we get through planting, we’ll have some more bear pressure on those old crop months specifically.”

He says in the Western Corn Belt, basis has been improving on soybeans as yields were fairly normal.

Planting Ahead of Normal
Planting nationally was 7% ahead of normal on soybeans and 2% ahead of normal on corn planting but the market faded it in part because Iowa is lagging on both corn and soybean planting with wet conditions.

Minor says, “You go with that eastern part of the state in Iowa, kind of Missouri for sure. It looks like the forecast is still super wet. They’ve been wet. They’ve had no real look at the fields at all. Probably eastern Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, that whole stretch. Even eastern Minnesota is pretty wet yet. So when I look at those areas, very, very far behind. But it’s early. We’re sitting at the 21st of April still. My rule of thumb normally is once we get past that WASDE report in May, then we get a pretty good look at it.”

So that will be a key time frame because if the wet forecast continues through May 10 and the 6-10 days beyond that the funds will start to care.

China Meeting
That time frame also coincides with the scheduled meeting between President Xi and Trump on the 14th and 15th.

“So there’s going to be a lot going on right in that time frame in that second or third week of May that could move the market,” he adds.

Wheat Ratings Drop
Wheat futures saw some profit taking early in the day session but came back on weather and still digesting the crop ratings which were down
4% nationally to 30% good to excellent.

The reason it didn’t provide more of a push to the market is because it was largely traded on Monday but those conditions aren’t likely to improve with frost that has now damaged the crop.

“It’s become quite volatile again off multi-year lows, which made sense with the poor crop conditions down South. It’s still struggling. I mean, we’ve got wheat heading out in places a couple weeks early for what it probably should be. So not a great sign. I still think a little bit of rain could help that Southern Plains area for sure. But some spots are just going to be too late as well,” he adds.

Can Wheat Rally Further?
The wheat market has still not taken out the recent highs in SRW or HRW classes and will need a catalyst to get above those levels.

He says the wheat market is also heavily dependent on inflation and hedge funds coming in to buy and how the crop finishes in the Southern Plains.

“I still think it’s a lot of outside market fundamentals. The wheat market can get inflation hedging bought up with the crude oil market, for example. And then just talking about things like today’s U.S. dollar move, things like that will be important as well. But mainly just the weather market that we’ll have in the Southern U.S. going forward,” he explains.

Cattle Market Falls Further
Cattle futures saw early strength erode on technical selling and fund long liquidation.

Minor says this is a healthy correction off of contract and record highs but it has been triggered by fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle.

“I think, because the meeting going on on Friday in Arizona with Brooke Rollins going to visit the border. So that leaves a lot of questions up in the air on what could happen there. And I think that’s kind of at the heart of it. We’ve had a really good rally again, so having some fun liquidation totally makes sense. Little pullback. We tried to fight back higher today, and I thought we were fighting at a pretty good close, and then it kind of had a poor close by the end of it here, technically. So looking at that 20-day just under us as support for a lot of these months.”

However, he isn’t concerned yet because of the strong fundamentals.

“Kill’s been super low lately. Packers have been trying to get margins back to a comfortable level, trying to kill few cattle as they can, get meat propped up pretty well. And it seems to be responding. It’s always worrisome when they pull kill way back and then you don’t see cutout respond. But we’ve seen choice and selects respond a little higher here recently. So I thought that was a good sign, especially going into the right time of the year as well seasonally. We should be seeing that bump anyways,” he says.

What if Support is Breached?
However, if the futures take out 20-day moving average support, he thinks how much lower will you fall?

“Well, we’ve gone up for about five, six straight years now. So we can do some pretty hard technical damage on this chart. This cattle market can take some really, really big swings, I think, off of it if it wanted to or got a good reason.”

t’s just seasonally, we start to talk about it. It’s going to be grilling season, and we all know we like steaks at the beginning of the year, hot dogs at the end. So hopefully, choice response pretty quick here after about the 1st of May. So if we do have some hard down days, I’m hoping that it won’t last much

Hogs Up a Second Day
Lean hog futures were up for a second day on short covering after a gap higher opening in the June contract.

Is this just a dead cat bounce or are there fundamentals to support the move?

Minor says, “Cut out, grinded its way higher to just over $100 again, kind of led by hams and bellies, but nothing sporadic, I thought, to really stand out to me across the board for the most part. So it seems like cash had a solid week of about a buck higher or so, so far, but there’s still
plenty of hogs around, Michelle, I think. When I look at this hog market, fundamentally, we got to be starting to get into some lower hog numbers here soon. This week and next week, still sitting at 2.4 to like 2.8 million number for the kill. And hopefully about the May 1st timeframe, we start to get a little bit lower numbers, prop that cut up a little bit higher. We’ve got the June back in a line with fundamentals, probably up front. We’ve taken most of the premium out, but we’re still a little bit optimistic, even going forward out in those future months, especially.”

Corn, SRW Wheat Rally on Weather and Exports but is it Sustainable? Cattle Fall

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 21:31:51 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mixed on Monday.

Corn Extends Gains
Corn was higher and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week.

Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says corn got some spillover support from higher crude oil due to the closure of the Strait for Hormuz.

Corn was also following soft red winter wheat and other demand fundamentals.

“I think you’ve got pretty decent support on the ethanol consumption side. You’ve got pretty decent support from the export inspections that came out this morning. We’re still trucking along at 31%, 32% above year ago on shipments. World stocks usage ratio is still pretty snug in corn. So it’s kind of keeping it from going down,” he says.

Weather in Focus?
He says the market was gearing up for planting progress with some talk of delays due to wet conditions in some areas of the corn belt.

“I think we’re talking about weather, but we’re really not trading it that much. It’s early. I mean, we’re looking at planting progress. I think the trade estimates are 11% or 12% percent complete for tonight. To me, that sounds a little tall, but could be accurate. You know, it’s important to have a decent planting progress here just because we think the yields might be lowered with less fertilizer. So you want to get it off to a good start.”

Funds Exit Longs in Corn
Funds sold nearly 55,000 contracts in the corn market as of last Tuesday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report, which is a big chunk.

What keeps them interested in holding the remaining 160,000 longs they have in the corn market or pushing above chart resistance?

“I think to get them interested, inflation is the easiest way. If you see a weak dollar, you see some stronger inflation indicators, then they want to play commodities a little more aggressively. I think the liquidation is actually pretty healthy. And you have to remember that we watch futures and options combined open interest. We’ve got those May options going off the board here fairly quickly, so that is going to make your numbers go down just because that chunk of business goes away,” he adds.

Frost Damage in Wheat
The wheat market started off higher Sunday night into early Monday in all three wheat classes and then soft red winter wheat futures held gains on concerns about frost damage over the weekend.

“You saw the overnight reaction was pretty positive and then we faded it. I think the the problem is it’s really hard to quantify frost damage. Sometimes you can’t see it and it shows up you know, a week or two later. I mean, if the flag leaf gets frozen and it’s wilted already, that’s easy. But a lot of it tends to be a little more subtle than that. You really can’t show it for two or three weeks. It would be obviously more vulnerable at the end of the month than it is in the middle of the month from a maturity standpoint.”

Plus, he says it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact situation because the market was talking about cold temperatures a week ago.

Hard red winter wheat was up 45 cents last week as well so that class of wheat ended slightly lower seeing some profit taking and spread unwinding.

More Weather Premium Needed in Wheat Prices?
So does the wheat market have enough weather premium or is there more upside potential?

Brugler is optimistic about a continued rally. “I think there is some upside price there. You’re in the time of the year when the global supply is the tightest. The supply is driven heavily by Northern hemisphere harvest. So when you get into April and May, you’re getting into the bottom of the barrel from a global perspective. Typically, that helps the U.S. exports a little bit because we’re sort of the supplier of last resort. World trade is complicated, of course, by the Middle East situation and what Russia is able to do and not able to do.”

He says Russia has one port that has been having issues due to Ukrainian activity so they are under performing on their exports.

However, he thinks the market put in a nine-year cycle low last fall.

“That was expected to be late 2024, 2025. Looked like we hit that. We’ve got a little bit of an upside breakout here.”

He notes that U.S. stocks are still ample, but overall the burden of proof is now on the bears.

Old Crop Soybeans Lower Following Meal
Old crop soybeans were lower again on Monday with the meal market and as funds have slowly been exiting their long positions.

He says soybean oil has been the driver as soybeans are still struggling with the lag in exports.

“I’ve said this several times but I think the oil over time is going to outbid exports for beans and meal is just something you have to get rid of,” he adds.

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
Soybean oil was sharply higher Monday getting spillover from higher crude oil.

“Again, renewable biodiesel or renewable diesel is a big driver there,” Brugler states, “It takes a little bit more bean oil to make than the conventional biodiesel does on a replacement basis. You know, that’s part of the U.S. energy security. I mean, we’re a net exporter of LNG.
We’re a net exporter of crude oil right now. We’re actually benefiting from the interruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, even though you can’t see it in the consumer prices because, you know, the world overall is tight. But bean oil is our buffer there through the biodiesel mechanism,” he explains.

Cattle Fade COF on Technical Selling
Cattle futures opened higher on Monday but could not hold early gains even with the constructive USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Brugler says the market saw technical selling as it got overbought after making all-time highs last week and needs fresh bullish news to continue to rally.

“We bought some $250 cash two weeks ago here and the $248 looks like that was the bulk of the trade last week. Your box beef’s holding up fairly well that’s going to be the main driver is will the consumer pay for the beef?’

He says the Cattle on Feed report did hint at a little heifer retention, with a 1% drop in the percentage of heifers in the feedlot.

“But nobody’s really buying into that given the dry conditions in the plains as far as any major cattle cycle reversal here.”

Did the Market Top Last Week?
Cash trade was slightly lower at $248.02 on the five area weighted average last week, down $.36.

So unless cash trade can move back higher have the cash and futures markets put in a top?

Brugler says, “Many have died trying to call a market top. There’s been a number of them over the last six months where people have said that. But what we don’t have is the actual biology. We don’t have an increase in feeder supplies. We’re not going to get one for a while. The screw worm situation is still a problem in Mexico. So you’re not going to supplement the supply through the Mexican inventory anytime soon, I don’t think.”

He adds that the number will typically get tighter before they get looser.

“In other words, once the cycle turns, you start diverting heifers to pasture, you tighten up those feeder supplies even further, and that translates to a later peak in the fats. The board action doesn’t always agree with that scenario, looking back over 10 or 12 cattle cycles, just because it gets ahead of itself. But the cash market pretty much tracks it,” he adds.

Hogs Bounce After Nine Down Days
Lean hog futures finally saw a bounce after nine lower closes and new lows for the move on Friday but is it sustainable?

Bruger says, “I think it’s a dead cat bounce, whether it’s a one-day, two-day, three-day. After the size of the drop we had, it could be a little larger. The market’s got May futures deliveries coming up here. We’ve still got a little bit of time, but you are going to track somewhat with where the CME index and where the pork cutouts are.”

Cattle Digest Cattle on Feed but Will The Market Retest the Highs? Can Hogs Hold?

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:54:28 GMT

Livestock are higher Monday morning with corn and wheat trying to hold gains and soybeans lower.

Cattle Bounce After Holding Support and a Wild NWS Ride on Friday
Cattle futures are higher on Monday after a volatile session on Friday.

Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures plunged with feeders touching limit down after around 10:00 am Central Time.

The selloff came on fears of USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announcing the reopening of the Southern border to Mexican cattle imports while at at the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility in Texas to curb NWS.

When Rollins didn’t announce a reopening the market quickly rebounded he says. “I still think it’s kind of an AI generated program that caught Rollins speaking at 11:00 am.”

The good news is the market found good support at $243 on June live cattle, a mark that is being eyed by fund and algorithm traders.

“So we did hold that which was nice to see so found some support. When you have a market that is that overbought for that long unfortunately your sell-offs can be kind of pent up to a certain degree,” he explains.

Rollins in Arizona This Friday
Rollins is expected to be in Arizona this Friday and so he is fearful it could produce the same type of volatile action in the cattle market.

“You know, I thought I had heard her say we’re not going to do anything unless we can get some of those cases further away from any border of the U.S. But I’m unfortunately I’m fearful the market’s going to have a little bit of a leery feel on Friday.”

He adds the numbers coming through the border may be much smaller than feared after the border has been closed for a year now.

“The traders they just like to feed off of those headline and unfortunately we just can’t put that to rest until we get some kind of a hard headline basically with it but that’s who knows what she’s going to say but the market’s going to be anticipating or maybe not even anticipating just trading that the fact that she’s there on Friday again,” he says.

Cattle on Feed Friendly
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report was friendly with the on feed number at 99.5% of a year ago, placements at 92.7% and marketings at 94.5%.

The placements number was the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996, so bullish overall.

He says, “This is basically this is going to calm the market down a little bit from Friday’s episodes and basically say hey we still have a generally historically tight supply here for a while now. So that’s the basic take-home message. The on feed there’s nothing huge in it you see the numbers continuing to grow in the North which is not a huge surprise we have the feed around here we grow.

The steer to heifer quarterly breakout showed steers at 63% of the total and heifers the balance, down 1%.

Kooima says the data backs that up but the drought map may change that.

“It’s like a slow progression like this whole cycle has been going on here the last few years anyway. So that’s just the progression of the heifer retention moving forward too and how we’re going to rebuild this herd it’s just going to be awfully slow. So, yes a little bit is happening but it’s not happening in the places where it needs to happen,” he adds.

Cash Market Steady
The cash market was mostly steady at $248 and $388 dressed.

At first glance that is disappointing but Kooima says, “However, I’m going to twist that a little bit because we, yeah, $248 happening there late Thursday, then $248 at the beginning of the market on Friday as well. And there’s a. point there here at least in the North where they actually pulled that $248.”

Then the packers came back in after lunch and renewed bids at $248 and feed lots regained their leverage even with the break in the futures.

“So some of the guys that passed the $248 in the morning were feeling a little bit oh no we missed what happened here but they were luckily able to get that towards the end of the day. So, it’s kind of one of those psychological yes $248 wasn’t the best but it came after the huge collapse in the futures which tells you the numbers are tight,” he says.

Is the High In the Cattle Market?
Still there are many in the trade saying the highs are in on the futures as confirmed by last week’s lower weekly closes.

So the market, according to Kooima, will need some bullish news in the form of higher cash to retest or take out those record highs scored last Tuesday.

The other key will be whether or not beef demand stays strong.

Is Beef Demand Holding?
Kooima says that is a tough subject but he says some of the higher priced cuts have been coming down in price while ground beef has been slowly grinding higher.

“The basic principle of demand is that if you have a product, you keep inching up that price higher and higher and higher because it’s moving. It’s moving. You’re going to retract the prices when you see the lack of movement. Two weeks ago, we had ground beef at all times high, which would tell you that things are great but last week we did have to backpedal just a little bit,” he explains.

That tells him that there is some push back especially as this is the best time of the year for demand.

“How I view it is that we’ve maybe reached a price point now where these consumers are trading down proteins,” he adds.

Hogs Bounce But Can They Hold?
Lean hog futures are higher after nine lower sessions and new lows for the move. So will the bounce hold?

Kooima says, “When I write down the product, the cutout level every day in the cash, Friday, it jumped out a little bit more that, okay, You have the cutout closing over 99 cents late Friday. And you have June. within a few dollars of it. July and August have a little bit of a premium, but where is our premium for these summer months? Historically, we always go into tighter numbers, just even on a normal year. But this year we’re dealing with all that disease issues. So I guess I’m going to look at a price point better than where we’re at right now. Where’s our premium? Let’s get those premiums back in those summer months.”

He says chart wise the market finished a three-wave theory to the downside.

“The first break was about $7 back a few months ago. Middle break was about $9, and this last one was about $7 as well. So hopefully we’re seeing a little bit of a technical action here where we can push this market up a little bit.”

He says the key is for slaughter to start slowing down and responding to the increase in disease being reported.

His theory is when disease hit six to eight months ago the large players did a great job of backfilling with Canadian isoweans.

Corn, Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
Grain markets continue to see wheat pulling up the corn due to weather concerns in hard red winter wheat areas ranging from drought to frost over the weekend.

However, corn may have a difficult time building on last week’s higher week as planter get rolling.

Plus, Kooima says with last week’s peace talks with Iran the funds decided to blow out of a good chunk of their long position.

“You know, they got out of quite a bit, 50, 60,000 on both sides of the beans and the corn. So, but yeah, it’s a big, long growing season
here in front of us,” he says.

However, if crude oil prices stay high it will lead to inflation which may bring some funds back into buy the grains.

“I think that’s part of their backbone of purchasing the grains the way that they have. And they just respectfully got out of some positions last week, because, yeah, when you see the crude oil have $10, $12 down days, too, you certainly want to lighten up the load a little bit. But inflation is for real. It’s maybe not as big as what people anticipate, but every month one that comes out, it’s higher than a year ago. If crude oil stays elevated the way that it is, we know how long that takes to finally trickle down into the gasoline prices anyway. So then inflation to me is pretty real,” he explains.

Grains Rally as War and China Fears Ease, Focus Turns to Weather: Cattle Correct

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 22:49:26 GMT

Grains ended higher Wednesday with livestock mostly lower.

Grains Rally as War Fears Ease, Attention Shifts to Weather
Grains were higher on Wednesday with Iran war fears subsiding and the markets more able to focus on their own fundamentals.

Rich Nelson with Allendale says while he doesn’t agree with it, the corn market was seeing some weather premium added on concerns about planting delays which takes away the argument for record acreage.

“This forecast does have above normal rain still lined up for the next two weeks. So we’re going to finish out April with a good replenishing moisture situation, but we’re not going to be advanced as far as planting. Let’s make that argument here,” he explains.

However, he is paying more attention to the Climate Prediction Center’s new summer forecast coming out later this week.

Corn Losing Acres Due to Fertilizer Prices?
Is the U.S. corn market also losing some acres this spring due to the higher price of fertilizer and the inability to get product due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Nelson says they are confident that USDA will be lowering corn acreage again.

“They were 3.5 million acres lower on that March survey. Our own survey suggested 5.1 million acres lower. So we do expect a decline. In our point of view, we’re not yet really going to say that the U.S. new crop story is going to be a yield hit based on the fertilizer issue,” he says.

In fact, he thinks it might be more of an issues this fall when Brazil starts planting and then during the U.S. fall application period after harvest.

“That’s where we probably will see some more valid discussion regarding lighter fertilizer usage. So I personally am not changing yield arguments here just yet,” he adds.

Corn Demand Uncovered
Corn falling to the lower end of its price range it saw a technical bounce but also uncovered some export demand with Mexico and unknown destinations showing up on flash sales on Tuesday.

Nelson says it shows that U.S. corn is a value at these levels.

Is Corn Bottoming?
Technically the market also saw some short covering after bouncing off support. So it this bottoming action?

He says, “So corn is in a downtrend. We can argue at least we have broken above that severe short-term downtrend line with this week’s minor rebound. I’m not quite ready to say we have a major low in place here just yet, but certainly we are seeing a few stories begin to develop here at this lower in the price range where we can say at least further lower pricing might have a little cushion behind it here.”

Soybeans Bounce
Soybeans bounced after two down days in part due to renewed optimism about the China mid-May meeting, a strong NOPA crush report and weather with rain in the two-week forecast according to Nelson.

“I would certainly say that that NOPA crush report for March, 16% over last year. Now, even considering the fact there was an extra plant this year, the NOPA mix versus the non-NOPA mix versus last year, is still a strong NOPA crush. So even though exports are a poor story for U.S. soybeans, we have an exact offset right now from the crush story.”

China Optimism?
So the market is holding a bit of China premium as the mid-May summit approaches.

“I think from a psychological basis, maybe you can argue it’s a discussion simply because Trump has mentioned Xi in recent days. But really, from a realistic standpoint, how many of us are expecting any type of new second round of buying from China for this old crop story? But
realistically, does China need to buy the second round of soybeans for the old crop side? On that end, I’m not quite sure there. It’s more likely they’re going to buy other crops, right?”

He thinks China will buy a small amount of sorghum, even corn and other crops but the soybean purchases could be a disappointment.

“I give maybe a 10% chance at some small corn wheat buys. Myself, I’m not really on board with the idea that they’re going to buy soybeans here,” he says.

That is because Brazil is still cheaper than the U.S. in the soybean export market but at least the difference in narrowing.

“Seasonally, Brazil does go to their largest price discount versus the U.S. and that’s in prior weeks and that was seen anywhere from around $55
per metric ton. It has decreased it’s down to about $30 per ton but still that’s more than we need to be to see a second round of U.S. soybean buys,” he says.

Argentina Strike, Tax Holiday
Nelson says news of a trucker strike at Argentina ports and a possible export tax holiday also weighed on soybeans the last couple of sessions and maybe more so on the meal market.

Wheat Rebounds to Close Higher
Wheat was lower early on rain in the extended forecast but came back to close higher on spillover from corn and soybeans. Plus, Nelson says the market needs to hold weather premium in the HRW market, not the other two classes.

“Let’s point out at least the spreads are changing. The past three days, we have seen a clear movement back towards those KC Chicago spreads, Minneapolis, Chicago spreads. And that’s where we probably need to see and price the situation is. We should certainly price it more as a spread issue rather than a wheat threatened story here.”

He says they will be watching the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook to see if it continues to show dryness in the Plains through summer.

“So I do think that the CPC’s numbers will be a market mover and certainly getting us a point of interest, especially for hard red wheat. Keep in mind, though, in the trades mindset, given the fact that CPC was wrong last year, maybe we have a little caution here this year.”

Wheat Needs to Take Out March Highs
The wheat market also needs to take out the March highs to continue to see technical buying.

“And two of these contracts have gaps waiting at higher prices on the charts. You mentioned the March highs as well. So I do think we make some arguments there. Seasonally, though, and also even in years with a weather threat. Typically, this is not a rally which just keeps on going and going. Typically, there is a short-term rally, strong and looking like a spike, into the late April, early May time of year. But typically this is not a long lasting rally that goes forever. So I do think there’s a good chance of taking out those March highs. I’m not sure how much we can go past that point though.”

Cattle Consolidate
Cattle ended mostly lower and consolidated after new contract and some all-time highs in live cattle on Tuesday.

He says it is likely routine profit taking and report positioning with the Cattle on Feed on Friday.

“I would say so. And certainly for this cattle market, this has exceeded everybody’s expectations these past two weeks. The market, number one, has removed all prior concerns it had regarding processing. And also at the same time, it’s also removed all concerns regarding the U.S. consumer. And I’m looking at the EIA data here from this morning. Despite the fact we’ve had a $1.23 rally in retail gas prices over seven weeks, believe it or not, our gasoline usage is actually higher than last year over this past seven-week period. Bulls do have a valid argument for right now. Somehow, the U.S. consumer is weathering every storm and still spending money on beef.”

Hogs Make New Lows for the Move
The hog market made new lows for the move and was down a 7th day. With April expiring at noon can the market stabilize?

Nelson says,"We had about a two-week break in cash hogs and cash pork, and that’s stabilized. We’ve got stable cash hogs and pork prices right now, which is normal for the first couple weeks of April. At this time, though, futures are always guessing, do we really need these premiums in place for summer contracts based on those fewer hogs which show up in summer? Now, realistically, the market generally falls into the May time frame for futures, then has a sharp spike higher into expiration for those summer contracts. I think that will happen,
certainly from our standpoint. Keep in mind that March hogs and pigs report also trimmed numbers that will be hitting in the summer. So overall, we still have a dead zone waiting for cash hogs and pork to see some procurement into into late spring and strong early summer.
I do think it will happen, but certainly for right now. futures continue to tail off premiums as is often seen at the time of year.”

Corn, Soybeans Higher Wednesday as War and China Concerns Ease: Is Corn Bottoming?

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:21 GMT

Corn and soybeans are higher early Wednesday with wheat lower. Cattle and hogs started lower then turned mixed.

Soybeans Back Higher on China Hopes
Soybeans are seeing a bounce on Wednesday morning. The market corrected the last two sessions on fear that the Iran war developments would jeopardize the mid-May meeting with China.

Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says, “President Trump was out on Truth Social this morning saying that China was happy with everything, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that they wouldn’t be sending weapons to Iran. And so I think everything’s kind of trending in the direction from a market perspective attitude, at least that maybe a peace deal is on the near term horizon. So we shall see. But as some of those geopolitical issues start to ease a little bit, we get more of a fundamental focus.”

He thinks the NOPA crush report Wednesday morning will be key with the market expecting a record crush figure.

“And so you know, that would be a positive on the demand side. We’ll see how it shakes up compared to the pre-report expectations. But a little bit more of a fundamental focus, I think, moving forward.”

China Premium in the Soybean Market
The soybean market has held together due to the idea China will be making soybean purchases as part of the mid-May meeting says Grete.

“China does carry a lot of weight, obviously, in the soybean market and everybody’s anxious to see if President Trump can negotiate a deal for China to buy more soybeans, whether it be more for 2025-26 or additional promises and pledges for 2026-27. But I think that one of the things that if this meeting happens in mid-May is that we aren’t going to see just soybeans be the center point we will see other feed grains like corn, wheat, sorghum maybe ethanol and biofuels and things like that be part of that deal,” he adds.

How Much of the 8 MMT Does China Buy?
The big question is how much of the 8 MMT of old crop soybean business the President has talked about are part of the deal and what is already priced into the market?

Grete says, “Yeah, I don’t think a lot is built in, to be honest with you. While you can argue that soybean prices are probably over inflated at
current values, I don’t think that’s really tied to that extra 8 million tons. And what’s the possibility out of that? Well, maybe half of that total. I don’t know. I’m just throwing numbers out there, to be honest. No one really knows.”

Soybeans Rangebound
From a chart perspective soybeans are still sideways says Grete.

“They’ve gone nowhere, to be honest with you, for about a month now. So just chop around in a relatively tight range, too. We saw way more volatility ahead of that. And the volatility has decreased and the price range has turned choppy.”

Corn Extends Gains
Corn futures are higher early Wednesday getting some help from soybeans and strong demand according to Grete.

He says record exports and flash sales to unknown and Mexico on Tuesday are supportive.

“And that just continues. We’re seeing no slowdown there. So that is a real story. Ethanol use has been OK. It hasn’t been spectacular. And so there’s some talk that maybe USDA will have to cut the corn for ethanol usage number a little bit. But I’m not real concerned on that front.”

The market is also concerned about lower acreage.

“Were the March Prospective Plantings numbers the highest that we’ll see for the season? In all likelihood, that is the case but we’ll see how
much we drift down from there. That will be a focal point as we move through the remainder of April and then into the May time frame,” he adds.

Corn Acres Falling
So how much are corn acres falling due to the whole fertilizer supply crunch and higher prices since the Iran war?

Grete thinks acres will be a little bit below where USDA was with the March perspective plantings.

“Regionally, I think there is some potential for some big shifts, to be honest with you. In the central Corn Belt, probably not a whole lot of movement.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation came out with its survey, and it said that the pre-booked fertilizer was the highest within the central Corn Belt area.

“So you’re probably not going to see a whole lot of movement there. You get down into the South and there was less than 20% pre-book coverage. And so those crops that are most at risk are peanuts, cotton, some of those that are specific to the South are probably the crops most at risk. We’ll see what happens with corn and soybean acres in those areas. I think that if you’re going to see any kind of big movement from the March intentions for corn and soybeans, it’s probably going to come from the fringe area. So I will include that up into the Plains, the Northern Plains, down through the south and southeast is the areas where we could see the biggest shift.”

Too Early To Trade Planting Delays
He says it is too early to be trading planting delays due to the heavy rains that have fallen in some areas of the Corn Belt.

“It’s mid-April, let’s be honest. If it was a month from now, then the concern would be much greater.”

He says the concern is coming from farmers that got off to such a fast start last year.

“So they feel like they’re behind and they are behind that but from a national perspective we’re right about where we need to be on corn and we’re well ahead on soybeans,” he remarks.

Corn Divorced From Crude Oil
The corn market has also divorced from the crude oil market and geopolitical headlines and is trading its own fundamentals.

“Right now, we’ve removed all the war premium from corn. We’re back to those pre-war levels.”

Corn Bottoming?
Corn had a 30 cent plus correction off the war highs on March 9 but held support on Tuesday so Grete thinks the market is trying to bottom.

“No doubt about that. You know, we saw the spike low last Friday. We’ve had some basing action since that point in time. And I really like the price action. Now, I don’t think that corn is going to go on a big move to the upside. But, you know from a downside risk perspective, I think the last Friday’s low is key near-term support that probably will be defended by bulls.”

Wheat Market Eases
After a big rally on Tuesday the wheat market was slightly lower on Wednesday.

Grete says the market has enough weather premium for the time being and needs some more bullish news to push that market higher.

“The global supply is plentiful at this point in time we’re oversupplied. The real story in wheat is that the SRW crop is doing well, the white winter wheat crop is doing well, the HRW crop is struggling. And are HRW concerns are they enough to pull higher when we have an oversupplied global market and the other two winter wheats are doing relatively well right now,” he explains.

As a result he doesn’t see a lot more upside to prices and technically the market has not taken out the March highs either.

Cattle Just Off Contract Highs
Cattle futures opened lower on Wednesday after new contract highs the prior session and even some all-time highs in live cattle.

Some light profit taking is understandable with the overbought condition of the market but are the fundamentals strong enough to support a sustained rally?

“I don’t know,” he says, “We’re in kind of rarefied air. We make new all-time highs on a near daily basis in live cattle futures. They’re trading at a premium to last week’s average cash. And so we need the cash market to come along. Boy, you get up in here and you got to have a new reason to be a buyer on a daily basis. And so far, we’ve seen that to a semi-limited degree. I don’t think that the traders will build too much premium into futures over the cash, but we do need the cash to keep performing.”

The wholesale beef prices had also seen select trading premium to choice and while that got corrected yesterday it is something to watch.

The market is also going into a Cattle on Feed Report and so there could be some consolidation going into that report even though the expectations are bullish.

“If the numbers aren’t as bullish as what the pre-report expectations are, you could see a little bit of additional profit taking. But really, it comes down to what’s the cash market doing? Because as long as the cash market continues to strengthen, then you’ll see some support in the futures, I believe.”

Hogs Bounce off New Lows
Lean hog futures opened lower for a sixth day and made new lows for the move before bouncing.

Grete says April hogs expire at noon and so the selloff may have been because the futures were too premium to the cash index.

“As May takes over lead month status, we’ve seen premium trimmed to under $4 to the cash index. Sometimes it’s nothing more than the expiration of the current front month contract that leads to a change in buyer interest. And so maybe we do see some buyers come back after that happens. We shall see on that front. But really, the cash index needs to start putting in some stronger gains, I think, to rebuild buyer
interest in the futures.”

Grains Refocus on War and Weather: Have Corn and Soybeans Put in Highs?

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 01:53:11 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mixed on Monday.

Markets Refocus on War or Shake it Off?
Grain and energy markets gapped higher Sunday night with equity markets sharply lower as the peace talks with Iran broke down and President Trump threatened to block traffic at the Strait of Hormuz.

Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says however, the grains and energy sector peaked out quickly and the stock market pulled off of its lows to trade higher by mid session acting like it wasn’t that concerned about the war.

“So the outside markets probably shaking off the ongoings in the Middle East here for the short term.”

He says there is still uncertainty from day to day but overall the market has absorbed much of the bearish news.

“But if you look at it in the bigger scope of things and look out into the future, it would probably still tell you that, no, it’s not of a major concern just yet. If by chance you keep the energy complex sharply higher and it leads on into late May, early June, then I would say you’re probably going to start having some bigger questions to answer.”

Wheat Adds Weather Premium
The wheat market was the only one to hold on to gains into the close as Schultz says that market was adding weather premium with concerns about drought expansion in the Southern Plains.

“I would say if you look at the forecast of what it was Thursday, Friday, going into this over the weekend and into this week, it was a very wet forecast. It looks like you were going to get more of the western half of the wheat belt and get some rain. You did get some, but I would say. By and large, the rainfall was more of a disappointment than it was of a surprise. On top of that, the temperature is going to flip back to much warmer. Warm and windy is what’s starting to happen, and it has been the case here for quite some time,” he explains.

He says West of 35W stretching Minneapolis to Dallas, Texas it is dry and the further West you head the drier it gets and that doesn’t bode well for HRW wheat.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat also saw some short covering as at least the soft red winter wheat futures saw funds push back short in the market.

Schultz says, “They went short and you had the wheat market, down some 50 some cents in the last 10 days. So a pretty big sell off. So you’re down at some pretty critical support levels and at least held there for a little bit.”

However, if it stays dry into the first part of May it will have a bigger impact on the market.

Corn Caught Between Higher Wheat and Lower Soybeans
Corn started higher with wheat and crude oil and then gave up into the close anchored by the lower soybean market.

Schultz thinks the corn market is starting to see pressure from the weather turning more favorable for planting and planting are starting to roll.

“You have a few pockets that will be wet but dry conditions are short term more bearish to the crop on price than it is bullish. That means your prevent planted acreage is going to be down substantially. It’s pretty, pretty low compared to normal. So I think that’s, that’s an issue. And besides that, even if it’s too dry, you could just replant the crop. That’s why the market really doesn’t get excited until you get into the month of May, whether it’s dry conditions or excessively wet conditions.”

Corn Topped on March 9
The corn market hit fresh highs on March 9 following crude oil but since then has corrected over 30 cents and looks like it is divorcing from the energy market and war headlines.

Funds have also been exiting their long position and as of the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report sold off another 45,000 longs as of last Tuesday. Will that trend continue?

Schultz says, “I think they still have plenty of length in here, even though they’ve come down some. They’re still pretty long. For this price and the rally that we’ve seen, that’s a pretty substantial move up and it’s a pretty substantial large position that they’re holding on the long side of the market.”

Plus he says there is still plenty of old crop corn around so there is no concern about running out.

“I think the farmer goes to the field. You’re going to see movement of corn slow down. You might see a better basis improvement than you do anything else for the short term. But for a 2.1 billion bushel corn carryout, corn prices are still, in my view, still a little bit more on the high side than they are on the low side,” he adds.

He thinks there may be another 10 to 15 cents of downside risk in the market but technically he is looking for a short term low soon.

Soybeans Lower Despite Higher Meal
The soybean market was lower on Monday despite strength in the meal market.

Schultz says the market is concerned about the possibility of the China talks being delayed or canceled if the Iran war doesn’t come to an end soon and with China providing weapons for Iran.

Plus he says, “The concern on the beans will be that if we do indeed put a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese get a lot of their oil coming out from Iran. If you slow that down, you’d run that risk that bean business to China may slow down here for the short term. So that is of concern.”

Soybean have been trading sideways for nearly 20 days with May beans between $11.45 and $11.80.

However, Monday was an outside day down. “That’s a little bit of a negative tone to the market.” he adds.

Funds Still Long Soybeans
Funds have exited some of the their record length in the soybean complex but they are still very long.

Do they defend that position until the market finds out if the U.S. is going to get more soybean buys from China in mid-May?

“Well, let’s see how it reacts. If it starts going below $11.45 on the May beans, I think I’d have a red flag would go on up. At the same time, $11.80 on the top side, you want to see it start closing above that level.”

If $11.45 is breached and selling accelerates to the downside he sees soybeans going down below $10.80

Cattle Correct
Live cattle futures ended mixed with nearby contracts seeing a correction off of record highs scored on Friday in the face of record cash.

So, is this routine consolidation or a healthy correction?

Schultz says, “The boxed beef has been headed lower, your kill on a weekly basis for cattle is anywhere between 30 to 60, 70,000 head less than the same week on a weekly basis than a year ago. Those are some big numbers to make up. So the cattle numbers going to market are very, very tight, hard to find, keeps the cash market up,” he explains.

He is also concerned the packer margins have gone back from being in the black to now probably somewhere around $170 to $190 per head in the red.

However, he acknowledges the strong domestic beef demand especially moving into the grilling season.

“So henceforth, when you come back and you look at the oil price going down, equity markets going up, probably keeps the consumer still doing quite well with beef demand. So probably a healthy correction here, maybe. It needs a correction. Wouldn’t surprise me, but you’re going to go off of what the cash market and the cash market is still staying relatively strong.”

Lean Hogs Disappoint Again
Lean hog futures were also lower after lower weekly closes in the deferred contracts and the June contract made a new low for the move.

The overall market continues to disappoint, especially relative to the heavy disease pressure being documented in the country.

However, Schultz says the upfront supplies are still overwhelming the demand and the disease pressure may not be fully realized yet.

“Well, we hear about the disease, but you look at the numbers on the weekly slaughter, and that would not coincide with the disease problem that we were hearing about. Now, granted, we’re still to the middle of April. You go back to the hog and pig report, it would suggest that
hog numbers were still going to be about 2% above a year ago until we get maybe to the middle of April, end of April, and then we should start to work it back down to equal with a year ago. I think that absolutely needs to happen. If it doesn’t, then I think the market’s got some bigger problems in front of us. I thought our demand would get a little bit better. And I still think if you look at the big picture, beef being as high as it is, one would think you would get better demand for the pork on the domestic side. That has to happen as well.”

He says exports are okay but with low global pork prices that may be hurting the market.

“China is seeing 16 year lows on pork prices. Compared to the U.S., we’re relatively high compared to the rest of the world.”

Can Record Fed Cattle Futures and Cash Trade Continue?

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 16:09:38 GMT

Cattle and hogs were lower early Monday then recovered. Grains were mixed with soybean lower and corn and wheat higher.

Live Cattle Make New Contract Highs
Live cattle futures made new and all-time contract highs on Friday with the April contract closing above $250.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market started off lower on Monday with bearish outside markets, like skyrocketing crude oil, but quickly turned mixed.

So, he isn’t concerned about the initial consolidation.

“I mean, you’ve got an overbought market. You know, actually, the stock market has firmed up a long ways here, but you got crude oil up $7.50. And some of those things, you know, cause, I think, give the market some reason to pause here a little bit.”

Cash Higher on Friday on Light Volume
The other reason he thinks futures are sound is tied to the cash trade.

While he calls it disappointing, cash was steady to higher on Friday on light volume.

The volume in the North was at $248 but with a few trades at $250, which is an all-time high. Dressed prices ranged from $385 to $389, steady to $4 higher. The South ranged from $246 to $249, mostly $248 to $249.

The previous cash record for the 5-area weighted steer was $246.91, scored the week of February 23, 2026 and last week’s cash trade was $244.96, so that could be exceeded.

“Some of us got $250 in the north to a regional packer. It wasn’t widespread at all. None of the majors ever bid it. The rest of the outfit seemed like it was more like $248 or pass. And so everybody, most everybody passed. And then there was a little bit of trade in Kansas Friday at $249. And then there was kind of unusual, but there was some trade in Texas on Saturday at $248. So, you know, coming in with April cattle above $251, Yeah. You know, maybe we’re a little over our skis here with futures if the cash is only going to be $248 only. Right?”

Negotiation volume the previous week was nearly 81,000 head so the packers may not have needed cattle right away.

Cash Cattle This Week?
However, it won’t take long for packers to need inventory, so he is optimistic about a higher cash tone this week.

“I think this week will be interesting because we maybe maybe you’ve got the line of scrimmage here pretty, pretty tight now. So you’ll have a packer or at least several of them that are going to be quite close to the knife and are going to need to buy some cattle. You got a producer that maybe carried a few cattle over and still some of the producers still fighting with this deal of well the cattle actually don’t really even make any money at $250 believe it or not.”

He says some of the yearlings had extremely high break evens so there is some resistance on the part of the seller. So, he says it will be interesting to see who wins the battle this week.

“I guess I’m going to go with what’s been working. And what’s been happening is that the feedlot has still maintained leverage. So I think there’s a shot we’ll be a little bit higher. Let’s go $252. I don’t know. Maybe that’s a little bit optimistic, but I’ll take my shot that we’re going to be a little bit better. But it won’t happen until late in the week. And I think it’ll be better because the packer is going to have to chase it because it’s that time of year where you expect to do beef business. And they got to be a reliable, you know, they got to be a reliable producer for that,
too, as well, or a resource for that.”

Futures Keep Climbing?
So with higher cash Kooima thinks the live cattle futures could keep climbing.

“I still think we’re in a window of time here of 30 to 45 days where cleaning up the old crop yearlings. You know there’s a few big cattle but we don’t have the weight problem that we had three four weeks ago and as you’re going into the front of these front end of these calves that aren’t hardly fat. I just don’t think that the feedlot’s going to be in have any urgency at all to sell as these cattle are barely at replacement cost,” he explains.

JBS Strike Settled
The union at the JBS beef plant in Greeley, Co. also settled over the weekend.

Kooima says that is slightly friendly for the market even though the employees were back to work last week.

“I think that the reality of it is I don’t think anyone is very surprised. I think we had this conversation at the very beginning of this thing, Michelle, that realistically, is this going to really go anywhere? I mean, every other plant signed off on the same deal. JBS isn’t going to make a special deal for one facility. And so I don’t think anyone’s terribly surprised in the fact that they had gone back to work basically anyway last week. It’s not bearish because it does mean that that Greeley plant is going to have to get after it and do some procurement of cattle that they wouldn’t have been doing two weeks ago. But again, I think anticipated.”

Feeders Not Making Contract Highs
While feeders have made new highs for the move they have not made new contract highs like the live cattle.

Is that the fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle soon?

“I believe in some of these old sayings like feeders are the leaders. Certainly the feeder cattle have led us through a great big part of this bull market cycle that we’ve been in lately. One could argue that feeder cattle, you know, there’s something called cattle crush. You take the price of the feeders against when they’re going to be fat, balance in the equation what the corn price is. Anyway, the crush has and has been consistently for over a year shown that either the feeder cattle are too high or the fats are too low. So maybe some adjustment in that crush
spread where the feeders had gotten themselves out. But I also think certainly the border being potentially reopened at some point, is part of it,” he adds.

Hogs Disappoint
Lean hog futures made new lows for the move early Monday.

The deferred lean hogs posted lower weekly closes last week and April was only up slightly as the market has continued to underperform according to Kooima.

“To me, the overall fundamental news of the hogs is more positive than reacting. Underperforming is a polite way of saying that I don’t understand it. For me, that’s how I feel. I continue to hear. PRRS talk, breakouts, train wrecks at a number of farrowing facilities that a lot of guys in my area source pigs from. You know, it looks to me like the supply of hogs for the summertime is still going to be a little tighter than expected because of those disease problems. You know, it could be that we continue to fret about global demand. Whether or not we’re doing anything to get along any better with China sure doesn’t appear like it.”

The charts are also beat up he says, “This is new lows for June hogs. The nature of hogs would be that they’ll fool me again, maybe, and now they’ll catch. But to me, fundamentally, we should be able to. to trade $110 to !112 in the summer. We’ll see.”

Grains Correct
Corn and wheat are higher on Monday with soybeans lower in correction mode with the Iran conflict back on the front burner and crude oil up nearly $8.

Corn may be chasing higher wheat and crude oil and trading geopolitics again.

However, corn has corrected over 30 cents off the March 9 highs so it may just be a short lived correction says Kooima, especially with ending stocks still over 2 billion bu.

Meanwhile, soybeans are lower with concerns that China is supplying military weapons to Iran and that could be a sticking point for the mid-May meeting between the two leaders.

“If this goes back into a sustained conflict that might even include you know reparations with China,” he says.

Plus, Kooima thinks soybean oil is trying to divorce itself from the whole energy trade and put in a high last week.

Soybeans Surge with Meal, Corn Falls: Cattle Make New Highs

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 20:35:10 GMT

Soybeans, meal and cattle ended higher Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Soybeans Follow Surge in Meal
Soybeans were higher on Friday following a surge in the soybean meal market with end of week unwinding of short meal/long oil spreads.

Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says bean oil has been the leader trying to follow crude oil higher but now that trade is reversing.

“I think we kind of stalled out on the oil the end of the week, and the soybean meal found some strength and I think part of it is the
unknowns,” he says.

The tug of war between the product values has soybeans trading range bound he adds.

China Hopes
The soybean market was also higher for the week and seems to be holding a premium on ideas of China sales in the meeting in mid-May between President Trump and President Xi.

The Wall Street Journal reported that China is expected to make some big soybean purchase announcements at that summit, but Roose thinks they will be new crop, not old crop buys.

“China’s pretty well bloated with soybeans already. They’ve been an aggressive buyer of soybeans from from Brazil. And, you know, it’s getting into the time frame where Brazil soybeans are pretty well getting dialed into the market. The U.S. soybeans, you know, if we pick up some new business, it’s probably going to be for next year. Or they’re going to buy soybeans for this year and then remember, they can always cancel them. So it may be one of those flashes. Either way, I doubt if the meeting is going to have anything that you can really say is overly positive,” he adds.

Corn Falls on Big Supplies, Removing Risk Premium
The corn market was lower Friday and for the week as Roose says the market has quit trading with crude oil and energy values and started to focus in its own fundamentals.

“You know, weather looked like it’s starting to improve a little bit for planting progress. Some of the dry areas are getting some moisture.”

He says the WASDE also confirmed a 2.127 billion bu. carryout.

“That really told us that we have adequate excess supplies, you know, and the world ending stocks going up. So I think that was a bit of a negative. Then you see some of these reports out of the Argentina exchange that a real big discrepancy on how big the corn crop is. So I think it’s just the weight of the supplies.”

The quarterly stocks also confirmed producers are holding over 5 billion bushels of corn, 60% of the ending stocks.

“And we know. that those are an anchor on rallies that producer was selling pretty aggressively. So I think the pipeline just got resupplied going into spring,” he adds.

Corn Hits Chart Resistance, Funds Liquidate
Technically the corn market also ran into signficant chart resistance and with funds long he thinks they are starting to liquidate.

“I think they’ve seen enough with the weather and how the trade is reacting to the crude oil. You’re oversold. To get some kind of retracement here, Michelle, would not be a big surprise. If you don’t catch a weather issue here sooner rather than later, my guess is retracements are going to end up with the funds getting out of their long,” he explains.

Roose adds if weather problems don’t surface by the middle of May to the middle of June, he thinks the funds will go to a short position. “Maybe a pretty big short position just like they did last year.”

Wheat Removes Risk Premium
Wheat futures also were lower Friday and for the week on technical selling but also removing risk premium tied to war, weather and big supplies.

“There’s competition around the world. Some place is harvesting wheat all the time. I think we’re looking at the dry area getting smaller in the U.S. I think there’s no real weather problems around the world. And I think we have a lot of these other countries with wheat that’s cheaper than us,” he says.

The Eastern part of the hard red winter wheat belt saw improved moisture this week as well.

Cattle Make New Highs
Cattle futures saw more new highs for the move on Friday in the feeders and new contract highs in some of the live cattle contracts.

Roose says it came on the heels of higher cash trade with some $250 live sale prices paid in the North.

How much more upside is left in the market especially getting into the best demand time of the year?

He says, " Well, I think if you look at the cash cattle market, I think you have to say we’re getting that seasonal push to the upside. You know, grilling season kicks in right during this time frame. We usually put some premiums in. The packer chases the boxed beef higher.”

However, he says boxed beef is struggling around $380 on the Choice. “So I think what you have to be careful of is if we’re fully dialed in on the fundamentals on the bull side of the market. Funds are sitting long, and you have to be careful if anything goes wrong.”

Weights are also record large according to Roose.

“We’re putting on about enough tons to equal about 20,000 head of cattle a week. Plus, when does the consumer demand slow down? It has been quite remarkable that he’s been holding in on buying beef, but he’s been buying beef at the expense of the packer, which is partly why the demand’s still strong.”

Feeders Holding Back on Border Fears
Feeder cattle futures have not taken out the all-time highs like live cattle. So it that fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle?

Roose says that may be one of the things holding the market back.

“If we don’t open the border sooner rather than later, eventually Mexico builds more packing plants. So I think we have to be careful we don’t send a signal, the wrong signal too long. So my guess is that we’re going to try and work gradually to slow walk the opening, but we’re going to get it done. And that’s going to add some pressure to the feeder cattle. That may be one of the reasons that even though corn market fell sharply, feeder cattle couldn’t make new highs while the fat cattle are making new highs. So I think it’s a concern,” he explains.

However, many called the top last October and the market is back trading at those levels again.

Lean Hogs Lower
Lean hog futures were lower again Friday and for the week. Roose says the futures got too premium to the cash index.

“Yeah, I think that’s the big thing, Michelle. I think the cash market down around $90, the futures market substantially higher than that. Usually we get a seasonal dip right here after Easter before we start to get a little bit of seasonal support middle of May. Then we have that run into the summer months. So I think it’s more just the futures just got too high,” he says.

Plus, globally China is struggling with big hog numbers and low prices at around $60 a hundred weight, and they’re still liquidating the herd.

So even though exports have been very strong, that may be fully dialed in.

Cattle Test Contract Highs on Strong Cash, Fade Border Talk: How High Will Prices Go?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:21:17 GMT

Cattle and soybeans are higher early Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Cattle Test Contract Highs
Cattle futures were strong out of the gate Friday with many of the live cattle futures once again making contract highs and other contracts are testing those chart areas.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.

“Cattle have been very strong. They’ve been overbought for a significant amount of time. And yeah, bumping on some of these contract highs. Some months are breaking through. And when some of the front months were making contract highs, the deferreds were kind of left in the dust, and now here in the last few days, more confidence in the back just continues to push higher. The resilience of this market is just very impressive.”

He says the market has shook off plenty of negative news including the Iran war, possible Mexican border reopening, closure of the Lexington, Neb. plant and the JBS plant strike at Greeley, CO.

When Will the Cattle High Hit?
Varilek says the market is getting hard to protect as many producers and market participants are waiting to see if the market is topping.

“I think there’s a lot of open inventory out there, guys that don’t have cattle hedged. And we’re just waiting. So whenever there is that official rollover, don’t know when it is. Everybody would love to know. And everybody says, call me if you think that is going to happen. That list is a thousand people long. So I don’t know that I’m going to get everybody called when that hits,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash Push
The futures have been pushed by the cash market which was up $9.26 last week on the 5-area weighted average.

“The way that it rallied was very impressive. It wasn’t just a few regionals out in front. We’ve got a couple of majors out there leading this cash market and for a couple of weeks in a row here now, coming in and grabbing entire show lists and the right kind of strength behind cash markets. So that helps a lot,” And he explains it provides the avenue to clean up the show lists and pull down the weights.

Producers have regained leverage but will it continue to push cash higher this week?

“Going into this week I think the thoughts were we’re gonna ask $252 but if the bids start coming out at $250 give me a call and there might be a little bit of interest there so I think anything $250 or higher, we’re feeling good. And it’s going to have to take that. I don’t feel like we’re going to move cattle less than that, especially with the strength that we’ve seen on the board here.”

Feeders Regain Leadership?
The feeder cattle cash index is back going higher and so will cash strength help pull the futures into new highs?

Varilek says, “These feeders have been the leaders for the last couple of years during this rally. And I think recently there was a small window here where a few of the cattle buyers were telling me, hey, I think there’s some soft. trade happening here and it’s easing up just a little
bit maybe not as strong that’s about all you had to say it must have encouraged the rest of the buyers to show up and we’re you know back off to the races got another you know projecting the index up another $2.40 here today and giving us that confidence.”

Plus, as planting ramps up there will be fewer cattle and buyers at the sale barns.

Mexican Border Reopening Soon?
The other headwind is continued talk the Mexican border might slowly start to open to cattle imports in a few weeks.

However, so far it hasn’t spooked the cattle market.

“Well, I think there was probably a few guys sitting on their hands waiting for more details there and now here we sit with kind of the same information, not a lot. So they might have to reenter and jump back in and get some inventory. I like what I’m seeing. To get to contract highs,
it’s not out of reach here,” he adds.

When the border does reopen it will be staggered and start in the far west ports but Varilek anticipates an announcement soon.

“You know, maybe it’s a staggered open here in a couple of weeks. And it’s like, OK, I just haven’t heard anything new yet on that story. I think that it is and I think that they probably will. I think we have a lot of measures in place to help prevent this. It is screwworm. It’s not hoof and mouth disease. It’s a little bit of a different cookie here, something that we should be able to try to manage. I don’t think it’s as big of a disaster as what some of the news is,” he states.

Plus, he says Mexico has learned how to deal with those cattle and are running those plants 24-7.

“They don’t have the regulations that we do here. They can ship us a lot of beef, just import us the beef, and they’ve got a self -sustaining industry down there. We can ship them corn. We’ve got a lot of cheap corn here. So that’s what I see.”

Hogs Correcting
Lean hogs saw a pop at the beginning of the week on news of FMD in China but have corrected since than and the action has been disappointing according to Varilek.

“One of our lead hog analysts here said, yeah, hogs suck. You know that that’s how what our attitude really is. We feel like we’ve got news that could rally these these hogs we we’ve got new PRRS outbreaks happening. I mean the disease is still there and so when we’re in the heart of
production we hear those stories,” he says.

Still hogs have not been able to turn around but he thinks its just a matter of time.

“I think that these hogs in these summer months can really take off here yet. So still holding out hope.”

Corn Removes War Premium
Corn futures are lower again on Friday on follow through selling and are working on a lower weekly close.

The market is taking out war and inflation premium according to Varilek.

“The energy rally that caught a lot of attention across agriculture markets and grains really benefited from it. You know, got to some levels, gave us some opportunities. Hey, to say, hey, I actually can look at some prices that might work here. That was fun. Now that we’re in the mood of, OK, we’re having ceasefire talks, we’re going to meet with Iran in Pakistan, Israel just kind of maybe coming to the table as of this morning.
We’ll see. But I think that’s starting to pull some of that premium out.”

Plus, he says the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks in the WASDE was a reminder of the large corn inventory in the U.S. with basis weaker than normal.

Soybeans Rally with Meal and China Hopes
Soybeans were higher again on Friday morning and have been strong all week getting some help from higher soybean meal as spreads are unwound with bean oil.

The other supportive feature is China and hopes for large purchases announcements in mid-May at the trade meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

Grain and Livestock See Risk Off Selling on War Fears

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:05:37 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower on Tuesday.

Risk Off Selling
The commodity wide selling pressure was tied to risk aversion and uncertainty regarding the escalation of the Iran War according to Mark Knight with Farmers Keeper Financial.

President Trump gave a clear warning to Iran that the U.S. would escalate the war and hit prime oil and electrical infrastructure without an agreement by 8 pm Tuesday.

“A lot of rhetoric big talk that the President was going to hit Iran hard if they didn’t meet his demands. So, the funds we know that they’re very long corn and even more so long soybeans, so I think you had those guys just kind of lightening the load a little bit going into tonight’s risk. We’ll just have to see how it plays out.”

If Crude Goes to $150 Will Grains Follow?
Knight thinks the last few sessions the grain markets were trying to separate from outside markets and the crude oil markets.

However, if the U.S. hits Iran even harder and oil shoots to $150 a barrel due to the damage to their infrastructure do the grains have to follow?

He says, “I’m not going to say they have to, but I would expect them to, even though you’re absolutely right. Late last week and the first couple of days this week, it seems like they are trying to separate themselves from what’s going on with the war and the crude and whatnot. But look, if things worsen and we see oil refineries exploding tonight, I would fully expect a big jump in crude oil and ag markets as well.”

Corn Holds Support
Even with the setback corn did hold support at the 50 and 100 day moving averages.

“Which are kind of key support areas bounced off that a couple cents, so that’s a good sign. Soybeans not so much, we still have quite a ways to support levels because of the gains that it saw,” he explains.

Acreage Battle?
So is the corn market concerned about losing acres due to the higher input prices like fuel and fertilizer?

Knight says the market isn’t reflecting that yet, either corn or soybeans.

“I mean, we still have new crop soybeans. They closed at $11.51 today and out of all of our markets I am the worried about new crop soybean prices. We’re considerably higher than we were last year. I’ve talked to countless farmers and our company has as well, that just didn’t have all their fertilizer needs locked in or any of it.”

So he sees a shift in acres. “And I think, you know, last week’s acreage report that we saw, I think it was going to be the high number of acres in corn and the low in beans. And I expect that to kind of come together a little bit.”

Soybeans Holding Premium
Still soybeans easily absorbed the extra 3.5 million acres USDA printed in the March 31 report. So it that premium from ideas of China soybean business or biofuels?

“Trump’s been talking all along here that soybean farmers are going to love him. Well, they’ve kicked the can down the road with the meetings with China where we were expected to sign something. I’m not convinced 100% that that’s exactly what happened. But anyways, Trump kicked the can down the road into mid-May, and we’ll see if something happens then. It wouldn’t shock me at this point to see it kick down the
road further,” he adds.

Knight says China has been upset by the U.S. messing up their two cheap oil sources in Venezuela and Iran. “So, it’ll be interesting to see how they feel about us.”

He goes on to say that China may not buy the additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans from the U.S. just based on price.

“We’re priced well above Brazil to this point and what $1 or something over them and so China can get all the beans that they want from South America. They’ve got a massive crop down there. They don’t need to come in here and buy old crop from us. So, my expectations would be they focus would be on new crop going forward in meetings with Trump,” he explains.

Soybean Oil Rally About to End?
Soybean oil ended slightly lower on Tuesday and just off Monday’s new contract highs.

The market has had a parabolic move on the higher biofuels blending mandates and skyrocketing crude oil. Is that all priced in?

“Do we have $100 barrel priced in? Do we have $120, $150 priced in? Probably not. So I would think if, you know, we’ll see what comes up tonight and the next 48 hours, really. But bean oil is going to be the first to go in either direction, in my opinion, and we’ll lead beans and corn either up or down based on what crude’s doing.”

Tug of War in Wheat
Wheat ended mixed Tuesday with HRW lower and SRW higher on spread unwinding. Plus, Knight says there was a tug of war between the lower crop ratings and rain in the forecast for HRW country according to Knight.

“The crop conditions report came out, what, four or five-year type lows, significantly lower than expectations. But it’s wheat. And like you said, it was so dry, and especially in that HRW country, when you talk Texas, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, a good chunk of where that production occurs. They’ve gotten some moisture here in the last week, and there’s quite a bit more on the way. So I’m fairly impressed with the fact that the other markets kind of sold off. is kind of hanging in there. It’s tough to kill wheat and and we’ve got plenty of it,” he remarks.

April WASDE on Thursday
The April WASDE will be released on Thursday but is expected to be a non-event.

“I can’t really think of anything that comes to mind that would shock the market at this point. The numbers I saw were so close to last month’s numbers on world carryouts, South American production,” he says.

Crop Progress Close to Normal
The first crop progress report of the season showed corn planting nationally at 3%, cotton at 5%, spring wheat at 2%. Those were all in line with average.

However, the forecast is showing cold and wet conditions for the next week with drier conditions after that.

Knight says the market isn’t going to be too concerned about any weather issues until May.

Cattle Market Sees Consolidation
Cattle futures ended mostly lower with risk off selling and profit taking after new contract highs were scored in all but the April live cattle.

“The funds it’s pretty evident evident that they took off risk in the grain markets so taking off risk in the cattle market it seems smart and logical. When you put new highs in like that and pull back a couple bucks I think it’s just normal trade probably some profit taking,” he says.

However, he says the cattle market will be bought on breaks due to the strong fundamentals, including soaring cash trade.

“Yeah, no doubt. We’re definitely going to follow the cash market.”

Corn, Soybeans Add War Premium, Watching Weather: Live Cattle Make Contract Highs Chasing Cash

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:50:52 GMT

Grains ended mixed Monday. Cattle were mostly higher, hogs soared.

Corn and Soybeans End Slightly Higher
Corn and soybeans ended slightly higher with a push from slightly higher crude oil and swirling Iran war headlines according to Chuck Shelby with Risk Management Commodities.

“When you look at what may happen on Tuesday, the intensification of the war, hopefully, you know, more peaceful settlement comes along but lot of outside headlines that just pop up and can really, you know, move the market in the short term. So a lot of information in the next few days are going to be pretty volatile,” he explains.

Can Grains Divorce From Crude Oil, War Headlines?
How long will corn and soybeans be tied to the headlines?

Shelby says he thinks it is difficult for the corn and soybean markets to unhinge until the war gets more resolved one way or another.

“Because we’re tied together there. You know certainly fertilizer is a big impact too as well as the crude because around the world there’s some shortages that are developing,” he adds.

Losing Corn Acres
So, Shelby thinks farmers are already making the decision to plant less corn.

“You know as we look into the corn production corn planted acres this year and maybe farmers have bought 80%, 90% of their fertilizer needs, but that leaves 10%. 10% of 95 million acres, that’s 9 million acres that are still maybe up in the air as we move towards those planting windows.”

He says it was too early to show up on the USDA Prospective Plantings Report.

“From the farmers that I work with and seed dealers I’ve talked to here in the Eastern Corn Belt, there are guys who are switching away from corn towards soybeans. A lot of those guys were side dressers who wait to buy their nitrogen or wait for the supply at the very end. So I think it is a real case that when they took the survey that producers didn’t have the information of the war and fertilizer prices going up. Obviously, nothing’s really being shipped out of that region. I do believe there is an impact going on.”

Is the Market Bidding for Acres?
The market is already starting to the acreage battle according to Shelby.

“When you look at the price of new crop beans, they’re significantly higher than where corn is basically at the same price, with much, much higher costs. So, yeah, I think the acres at the end of the day will show less corn acres than what we saw in that report a week or so ago.”

Weather Could Be the Tie Breaker
Weather could also have a big impact says Shelby.

“If it stays wet in the corn growing areas, we can plant a lot of corn at one time, but it’s just another reason for someone who is on the edge about a field that may or may not go into corn. I think those are reasons as we move forward that tend to lean less corn acres and you know more bean acres,” he adds.

Weather Different Than 2025
Weather so far is different from last year in that the Eastern Corn Belt.

“If you look at the drought monitor map we were extremely dry and really concerned about that but in the last week, we’ve picked up four to five inches of rain. There’s more predicted. So, you know, in the long run, that’s really good to get that moisture in the subsoil replenished. It might slow down planting. It’s kind of interesting. You know, Southern Illinois and Indiana were really, really behind last year, really wet. But there’s planters that are rolling in those areas because they’re on the drier side,” he explains.

Soybeans Await China Summit
The soybean market is also awaiting the outcome of the China summit in mid-May to see if the U.S. gets additional old crop soybean sales and if China will buy the promised 25 MMT of new crop.

Shelby thinks the longs in the soybean market will defend that position until that time.

“Right now they seem to be content to sit in there and wait and see. I think they believe that there’s probably going to be some more bushels bought by China once they get together and meet. So it’s a pretty important time for producers. Maybe a challenging time, but at least we’re getting some opportunities in the bean market at a higher market than it was in 2025.”

RVOs Add to Demand for Soybean Oil
Soybean oil made more contract highs on Monday following crude oil but also pricing in the 60% increase in biomass based diesel blending mandates.

A lot of the premium is built in according to Shelby but if the war continues to push diesel fuel and heating oil prices higher that will lift soybean oil because it follows those markets.

“If we do increase the conflict and it’s not over for, you know, months or whatever it may be and keep these fuel prices high, that bodes well for
more biofuel blending and just enhances the opportunity going forward to keep that in the mixture.”

Meal Higher on Argentina Flooding?
The meal market was also higher with bean oil on news of flooding in Argentina soybean areas.

“That was a little bit of a headline. You know, normally bean oil and meal take opposite directions as people spread off in that market. But it was good to see what was up again.”

Wheat Corrects on Weather, Profit Taking
Wheat futures were down on profit taking running into some chart resistance but also taking out some weather premium.

Shelby says, “There’s some moisture that’s supposed to come into the Western regions that are really, really dry. But again, is it enough to really change it? It would certainly help. I’m sure they’ll take all they can get. But the bulk of the moisture is more toward the center of the Corn Belt and to the East.”

The funds have pushed to the long side of the wheat market for the first time in four years but can it keep going?

“We’ve had a good run up the funds are long the market which is always good wheat’s very trending. So, if we turn the trend from down to up hopefully that would give us an extended run. Really wasn’t down that much today at the end of the day so just a little bit of a setback but I don’t think there’s really anything that you know has turned the trend back to negative,” he explains.

Live Cattle Hit New Contract Highs
The deferred live cattle futures made new contract highs with the help of skyrocketing cash trade at $245 to $246 in the North and South, so up $8 to $9.

Plus, Shelby says the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado will be back up slaughtering on Tuesday which also pushed the market higher.

He thinks going towards the grilling season he is concerned if consumers will continue to pay for beef with higher gas prices at the pump.

“With higher fuel prices, it certainly takes out of their budget the cash that they might have used for beef or pork or chicken or whatever. It’s an interesting dynamic that we’re going to see going forward. Again, it all ties back to what really happens in Iran and does it escalate, does it end. So there’s a lot riding on this next week or two as far as what the war is going to go forward or end or whatever may happen in all our markets, especially probably in the meat market,” he adds.

Hogs Rally with Cattle, China FMD
The hog market also soared Monday with cattle trying to play catch up according to Shelby.

Still the back months built in a big premium due to news of Foot and Mouth Disease in China.

“The Chinese are always a big part of our markets here. I think when you look at the pork market, there’s multiple reasons again, but I think with cattle are at all time record high and pork is, you know, well below where the highs where we have been and the demand going forward. And when you look at it as a substitute, it’s a little bit cheaper than, you know, your beef cuts that that’s probably the reason the pork market
has followed along,” he states.

Shelby looks for that to continue as long as cattle can stay strong and with disease also being reported in parts of Iowa and Minnesota. He says he hasn’t heard it so much from farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt.

“The numbers are going to drop down going forward it seems like at this point there is some problems that are out there but again it’s mostly West of illinois where I’ve heard that issue,” he says.

Live Cattle Follow Skyrocketing Cash, JBS Plant Strike Ending: Hogs Rally on FMD in China

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 15:37:39 GMT

Live cattle were higher feeders two sided with hogs sharply higher early Monday. Corn and soybeans were trying to hold gains as wheat fell.

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs
Live cattle were higher early Monday with deferred contracts making new contract highs.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.

Cash Skyrockets
Cash trade was higher on Thursday at $245 to $246 in the South, up $8 to $9 and the North traded $245 live and mostly $385 dressed, up $13.

“Absolutely this cash market even with the Greeley plant being closed and even with all the uncertainty going on with the geopolitics and all the other stuff cash was basically $245 in fact there was some $246 bid around here on Saturday, the day before Easter. So that’s pretty impressive.”

He says show lists are very tight in the North, weights are falling and the backlog of big cattle has been worked through.

“Now all of a sudden you’re in between crops of cattle mostly the yearlings are gone and the calves aren’t fat yet even though the weather has been ideal.”

Cash Higher Again This Week?
So will cash trade be higher again this week with feedlots regaining leverage?

Kooima says, “I think yes. I think most everybody’s kind of got $250 in mind this week, and I think we’ll get it. And it’ll probably be led by the North. So it’s kind of weird to me how the packer really lost his leverage last week.”

He adds that the market has already exceeded his expectations and could shoot all the way up to $260 before it runs out of gas.

Greeley Plant Strike Over?
Over the weekend the strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado ended and so the plant will be killing cattle on Tuesday according to Kooima.

“I think they might get 3,500 cattle dead tomorrow as the union has agreed to go back to work and while they continue to negotiate. So not unexpected. We kind of heard this was coming last week. But of course, that’s going to force that outfit to have to buy a few cattle, we think anyway. And then that should help press the thing toward $250.”

The union went back to work despite their demands being met but Kooima is fairly sure the strike is over for good.

“The back story of this had been that, well, this is a deal, an agreement that all their other plants had already signed on to. And so, you know, a lot of us on the sidelines were thinking like, well, what do you expect JBS to do to make a different deal for Greeley? You know, maybe there’s some small concessions with some benefits or something, but to say that they were going to reopen that whole thing. And then of course, you know, the union leader has of this particular union has a reputation of, enjoying strikes. And so, you know, you wondered about it. I would say that you can’t completely say, okay, no worries at all. But for me, I’d be, I’d be 80% sure that they’re probably back to work to stay,” he explains.

How Long For Greeley to Return to Normal?
So how long will it take to get Greeley back to full capacity?

Kooima says, “I’m guessing, but the boots on the ground there, they think maybe, you know, capacity is 5,400. But I don’t know if there’s a plant
in the universe that’s killing it capacity with this tight supply. The talk was that they maybe could get back to where they were, which is around 4,800 to 5,000, maybe as soon as two weeks. So we’ll see. Probably depends on the margins and the profitability, too. That’ll probably incentivize them, give them a lack of incentive to get real aggressive if the packers kind of lost his margin here on this last last last move here.”

Feeder Cattle Sloppy Fearing Border Reopening
The feeder cattle market has not made new highs like the live cattle and it fact Kooima says was trading two sided and sloppy on Monday.

It is likely the fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle and USDA Secretary Rollins has changed her stance when that event will take place and retreated on how much of threat New World Screwworm (NWS) is to the U.S. cattle herd.

So, Kooima says its more likely within the next few weeks.

“Personally I am really tired of this deal. I think they’ve made so much out of it. This is something that’s treatable. This isn’t mad cow disease. This is a worm. Ever heard of IVAMEC? So her narrative changed in that they think maybe now it’s time to do a gradual reopening. They’d
start way on that west one there, Sonora, the one in New Mexico. They’re 800 miles literally from the nearest incident of screwworm fly.”

However, he says the Mexican cattle industry has built feed yards and packing capacity and is making money so the number of cattle coming across the border may be less than expected.

“They’ve tripled their kill capacity because they’re killing cattle 24-7 instead of eight hours a day for five days. So we may never go back to where
we were. In fact, I doubt very much that we ever will, you know, back to that 1.3 million head a year. But for my money, I don’t know. I think I’d just soon know where they are instead of having to absorb all their meat into our consumption and wondering exactly what it is. But that’s just me,” he says.

Plus he says the market has rallied $23 in three weeks and filled the chart gaps, so it is overbought.

Hogs Rally on FMD in China
Lean hog futures were also higher on Monday with news that China has cases of Foot and Mouth Disease in two provinces.

Kooima says, “Those kind of headlines really will spark it. Obviously, China has been noticeably absent from our export business here because it feels like they’ve got their whole industry back, you know, through their disease cycle and after low productivity, high productivity. Now, I don’t know if FMD is necessarily quite the like PRRS risk or, you know, all this other stuff. But yeah. For now, it’s given us a pretty good headline bounce.”

He adds that disease problems in the U.S. herd are also causing the feeder pig market to rally.

“Everybody’s talking about the disease problems here in the United States as well. PRRS, some new strain. It seems like it never fails. You can only go a year or two before something else happens. So I know these guys that are buying feeder pigs are really chasing the market.”

Corn, Soybeans Struggle to Hold
Corn and soybean futures are struggling to hold slight gains with the wheat market lower and uncertainty tied to war headlines and the energy market looking for direction.

“If you’re bullish you better hang your hat right on that post because that’s I don’t see a lot of other stuff to hold the market except what the weather is going to be this summer and nobody knows what will happen with that,” he states.

Seasonals are a little stronger during the planting season but he says the cash basis levels on corn in the North are weak even around ethanol plants.

“Basis is really weak 40 to 50 under tells me there’s all kinds of old crop corn left. So, let’s give it a chance here the next two weeks let’s hope we bounce a little bit,” he adds.