Imports and Exports

China Grants 5-Year Extension to Hundreds of U.S. Beef Plant Registrations

Fri, 15 May 2026 18:23:58 GMT

China has granted a five-year extension to hundreds of U.S. beef plant export registrations, marking the first major movement in months on a trade issue that has constrained access to one of the most important overseas markets for American beef.

According to a Friday statement from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF), China’s General Administration of Customs (GACC) has extended registrations for 425 overdue U.S. beef establishments in China’s CIFER system. In addition, 77 new U.S. beef establishment registrations have been added, effective May 15, 2026, with each valid for five years. However, 38 beef establishments remain suspended. Of those, 25 were previously expired and have now been administratively renewed, but they are still not eligible to export.

The announcement adds a significant new development to a week of confusion and shifting signals around U.S. beef access to China. On Thursday, Bloomberg and Reuters reported that China appeared to have renewed export registrations for hundreds of U.S. beef plants during high-level talks between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing. But those listings later reverted to “expired” on China’s customs website, with no official explanation, fueling uncertainty across the industry.

As recently as Friday morning, there had been no clear confirmation that broad renewals were in place. The USMEF update now provides the most concrete indication yet that at least partial restoration of access is underway, even as some facilities remain blocked.

Restoring Plant Registrations Was Top Priority for USMEF

For USMEF, restoring those registrations is priority number one, and even said before the high-level meeting this week that this type of meeting would be the perfect stage to restore the registrations..

“We have been at an impasse now for almost a year with these plants,” says Dan Halstrom, president and CEO of the U.S. Meat Export Federation. “The vast majority of the U.S. plants — 400-plus — are either delisted or were never relisted in their registration system in China. So in my opinion, it’s going to take an event like this to maybe jar this loose and break it loose. We’re cautiously optimistic that having this high-level meeting between President Xi and President Trump might just do that.”

Halstrom said while beef is only one piece of the broader trade relationship, these talks could provide the political momentum needed to reopen access.

“There are so many issues outside of beef and even outside of agriculture that are being discussed,” he says. “But time will tell. A meeting like this could absolutely be what we’ve been waiting for.”

From a $2 Billion Market to a Fraction of That

How high are the stakes? According to Halstrom, they’re significant. He says following the Phase One trade agreement in 2020, U.S. beef exports to China exploded. According to Halstrom, exports grew from roughly $300 million in 2020 to more than $2 billion by 2022.

But after the registration lapse last year, exports sharply declined.

“If you remember back to 2020 with the Phase One deal with China, that was a home run for the U.S. beef industry,” Halstrom says. “In 2020, we were exporting about $300 million of U.S. beef. We peaked out in 2022 at a little over $2 billion. Then in 2023 and 2024, we were around $1.6 billion. But after the plants were delisted last year, we dropped to a little under $500 million. So at a very high level, that’s the impact we’re talking about.”

And that loss isn’t just showing up on export balance sheets. It’s hitting cattle values at home.

Halstrom estimates access to the China market adds roughly $150 to $165 per fed animal harvested in the U.S.

“China has become a very important market because of the way it helps maximize the value of the carcass,” he explains. “There are products, especially variety meats that have significantly more value in China than they do here domestically. Items like backstrap and aorta are in very high demand there. If those products suddenly don’t have a home in China, it impacts the value chain almost immediately.”

Why China Matters to the Cutout

Halstrom says the impact also extends into traditional muscle cuts, especially short plates.

“Today, beef short plates are trading roughly around $2.50 per pound,” Halstrom says. “We estimate that if these plants were relisted and access was restored, you could see short plate values increase by more than a dollar per pound in relatively short order. That’s substantial.”

Halstrom also points out China’s importance stretches beyond just direct exports into the country. It really impacts all of Asia.

“It’s not just about what gets sold directly to China,” he says “The China market creates a halo effect across Asia because a lot of these same items are traded between China, Japan, Korea and Taiwan. So when China is actively buying, you immediately see stronger demand and stronger pricing across the region for products like short ribs, chuck flap and short plates.”

That broader demand ripple helps support overall cattle prices in the U.S.

“More customers rather than fewer is what impacts the cutout,” Halstrom says. “And there’s no doubt there’s been big money lost over the last year because these plants have not been relisted.”

More Than Just Plant Registrations

Halstrom stresses the expired registrations are only one layer of the issue that needs to be addressed.

“It’s not just the plant relistments,” he explains. “That’s phase one of what we need to have done. A large percentage of these plants are also dealing with technical and non-tariff trade issues, including residue-related issues that have caused additional delistings. So there are really two phases here — first getting these plants relisted in the registration system, and then working through these broader trade barriers.”

He said the U.S. Trade Representative’s office is fully aware of the challenges facing the industry and is listening.

“We’ve been dealing with USTR on these issues and they are very well informed on it,” Halstrom says. “The other thing from an agriculture perspective is encouraging the Chinese to go back and look at what they already committed to with the Phase One agreement back in 2020.”

Demand Is Still There

Despite the political tensions, Halstrom said the commercial appetite for U.S. beef in China hasn’t disappeared.

“One important point here is these are not government-to-government transactions. These are our customers,” Halstrom says. “They want the product and we want to sell it. The commercial business is still there.”

He pointed to major retailers and foodservice buyers already positioned to resume purchases quickly if access returns.

“Sam’s Club comes to mind immediately because they’re one of the leading modern big-box retailers in China,” Halstrom says. “Costco has warehouses there as well, and we also have foodservice customers lined up and ready to go. So we do not need to rebuild the commercial business. The customers are there, willing and able to buy U.S. beef. What we need is for the U.S. government and the Chinese government to work together to restore access so we can get back on track.”

As of the latest industry checks this week, registrations for most U.S. beef plants still had not been renewed.

The New Ag Economy: Why This Downturn is a Structural Shift, Not Just a Cycle

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 21:22:16 GMT

What You Need to Know:

Structural Evolution: This downturn is a permanent market shift, not just a temporary cycle.
Friend-Shoring: Trade is moving toward geopolitical allies to ensure supply chain resilience.
Aggressive Cost-Cutting: Farmers are doubling generic input use and delaying machinery purchases to protect margins.
Financial Resilience: Better management and working capital make today far more stable than the 1980s.
Premium Protein Demand: GLP-1 medications are driving consumers toward smaller, higher-quality meat portions

As the industry enters the third year of this downturn, farmers and agribusinesses are questioning if a recovery is on the two-year horizon. While cyclical behavior is normal, two economists suggest the structural evolution within crop protection, machinery, technology, livestock and other individual sectors is creating a different kind of staying power for those who survive the recovery.

The Evolution of the Cycle

When characterizing the current economic cycle in agriculture, historical patterns provide a necessary baseline, yet the present landscape is defined by unique pressures. Typical agricultural cycles consist of roughly six years of expansion followed by four years of decline. Currently, the market is navigating a “corrective period,” returning to long-run averages.

The drivers of growth are typically demand shocks — export surges, fuel demand or policy shifts such as the Renewable Fuel Standard. However, Wes Davis, ag economist at Meridian Ag Advisors, notes the current environment is an intersection of traditional contraction and sector-specific evolution.

“What I think we’re experiencing right now is that typical cycle behavior where we see growth in some business firms, and then some contraction and pullback to adjust to the cycle going back to more of the long-run average,” Davis explains. “I think we’re also seeing evolution of individual sectors within the market where there’s adjustments happening because of the industry itself.”

In other words, this isn’t just a cycle — it’s also a structural shift.

Change Fatigue and Modern Volatility

Farmers aren’t strangers to volatility, but global trade disruptions, policy shifts and rising competition, especially from Brazil, are layering uncertainty onto already volatile markets.
Farmers are grappling with “change fatigue,” a byproduct of the high velocity of information and extreme price swings that dwarf the relative stability of the early 2000s.

“When I go talk to any industry group right now, the phrase that I hear is ‘change fatigue’, and I feel that. Every couple minutes, something shifts,” says Trey Malone, Purdue University ag econ professor. “But to be clear, it’s not that the farm economy isn’t used to volatility, it’s just the uncertainty and the volatility now is, like, ‘hold my beer relative’ to the old volatility.”

Malone attributes this to layers of uncertainty created by global trade and policy. The rise of Brazilian production, coinciding with the disruption of U.S.-China trade relations, has created a permanent state of flux. This sentiment is reflected in the Purdue Ag Economy Barometer, which shares a higher correlation with the Small Business Index (.5) than with actual commodity prices. This suggests farmers view themselves primarily as small business owners facing broad economic pressures rather than just price-takers.

“We don’t see very strong correlations even with lagged soybean prices and corn prices,” Malone notes. “The world is more complicated than just looking at what happened in the market yesterday and gauging how farmers feel.”

Global Competitiveness and the Trade Reallocation

A primary concern for U.S. producers is their position as low-cost providers. While the U.S. maintains an infrastructure advantage that lowers the cost of getting products to export ports, Brazil continues to close the gap.

“It’s a fair question farmers ask a lot: Are we actually the ones who are the low-cost producers, and do we still have a place in the global market if Brazil continues to lower the cost of production and transport their grain to export terminals?” Davis asks.

However, Davis points out that global trade hasn’t shut off; it has reallocated. Only three global regions — North America, Latin America and parts of Southeastern Europe/Central Asia — are net exporters. The rest of the world remains net importers.

“While our trade has kind of shifted around ... that shift has really reallocated stuff in different places. Those calories and products end up going somewhere. It’s just a question of where,” he says.

The Shift to “Friend-Shoring” and Resilient Supply Chains

The industry is moving from “just-in-time” (hyper-lean) procurement to “just-in-case” (inventory-heavy) strategies, a lesson reinforced by the pandemic. This shift is accompanied by “friend-shoring,” where the U.S. prioritizes trade with geopolitical allies.

“We’ve gone from offshoring to onshoring to nearshoring to friendshoring,” Malone explains. “We’ve got a paper that’ll be coming out ... where we document friend-shoring in ag and food supply chains. Over the last 10 years, there’s been a shift where we mostly in the U.S. trade with other people who vote like us in the WTO. That’s kind of one way to measure friends.”

This resilience is also visible in crop protection. In 2019, 80% of active ingredients were sourced from China. Today, that is closer to 60%, with manufacturing shifting to India and domestic sites. Davis calls these “geopolitically resilient” supply chains.

The Rise of Generics and Decision Paralysis

The economic downturn is fundamentally changing the business model for input providers. Farmers are aggressively cutting costs, leading to a massive surge in generic usage.

“The latest survey I saw shows about 60% of farmers use generics today. That was about 30% to 40% just 5 years ago,” Davis says. This forces companies to pivot from differentiation to operational volume.

In the machinery sector, high costs and economic uncertainty have led to “decision paralysis.” Farmers are extending the life of their equipment, treating machinery replacement as the most controllable variable in managing annual ROI. Davis notes the U.S. ag equipment cycle is currently 15 to 20 percentage points lower than typical low points, driven by this hesitation. Furthermore, there is significant skepticism toward subscription-based technology models.

“Farmers don’t terribly love this idea, and I think the other interesting thought here is I’m not sure that retailers like selling them either,” Malone adds.

AI: The “Undergraduate Intern”

While artificial intelligence (AI) is a major talking point, its current role in agriculture is more supportive than transformative. Malone views AI as a “highly capable undergraduate intern” — useful for processing information but incapable of replacing the trust and risk management provided by human advisors.

“I don’t think you need to be replacing your agronomist. I think your mediocre agronomist just got OK,” Malone says, noting while LLMs can pass CCA exams, they cannot manage the risk of a wrong decision. “The risk management value proposition of an in-person Claude, or whoever, is probably going to win out because there’s still a risk.”

Currently, the adoption gap is wide: While 75% of agribusiness managers see potential in AI, only 4% have implemented it, according to a Purdue University survey in 2025.

Livestock and the GLP-1 Impact

The livestock sector is facing a unique demand shift driven by weight-loss medications (GLP-1s). This is leading to “premiumization.” As consumers eat smaller portions, they are opting for higher-quality cuts.

“The explosion in demand for protein is just shocking,” Malone says. “What GLP-1s do to that calorie count is they are all shifting toward premium cuts. You don’t care how much it costs because you’re only going to have seven bites of it. But you’re going to have a steak. That premiumization is going to really, really take off in the next 10 years.”

Conversely, the hype surrounding “fake meat” has largely faded, proving to be more of an investor-led phenomenon than a market-driven one.

Financial Stability: Not the 1980s

Despite the downturn, the financial health of the American farmer remains more stable than during the crisis of the 1980s. Currently, 10% to 12% of farmers are in a “tight” financial position , compared to 20% to 30% in the 80s.

“We do have a completely different, more professional ag workforce than we did back then,” Malone says. “The farm policy we have right now does not necessarily match what we need for the future, but all of these things make me think we’re in a much more stable position.”

Farmers have built-in “shock absorbers,” Davis adds, including off-farm income and working capital built up during the expansion years. However, in his research Davis has seen how alternative financing is becoming a major tool for the 50% of farmers who use it — either to manage stress or, for larger operations, to leverage relationships with retailers.

Strategic Reassessment: Winning at the Bottom

The experts agree the “bottom of the cycle” is the time for professionalization and upskilling. Surviving — and thriving — will require sharper management. It is an opportunity to reassess farm transitions and management disciplines, such as financial management, accounting and planning, which become critical in tight margins.

“Farmers are going to have to get smarter and get more creative with how they manage,” Malone says. “This is a good opportunity to take a step back and think about what the strategy needs to be moving forward.”

Davis emphasizes relationships are solidified during these periods: “Farmers are going to remember the folks who were around when they were in the bottom of the cycle, and who were there to support them. The best farmers will continue to get better ... I get excited about what we can look like as we come out of this cycle.”

So Is This Ag Cycle Different?

These experts say yes as every cycle presents its own unique reshaping of future opportunities.

To download the full report on why this ag cycle is different and what it means for your operation, click here .

A 'Neighbor' in Need: Why Cuba’s Energy Collapse Could Spark a U.S. Ag Export Surge

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 19:39:18 GMT

Cuba looks the worst Paul Johnson has seen it in the 20 years he’s spent traveling to the country. The Chair of the United States Agriculture Coalition for Cuba landed back in Miami, after a week in Havana. He experienced blackouts in the city, sometimes 24 hours at a time.

Humanitarian aid arrived on shore in Havanna on March 24. The country has begun restoring power after its third nationwide power outage in the last month. Johnson says Cuban’s are without refrigerators and few cars are running.

“That has a tremendous impact on people’s psyche, but also the daily life and how things get done not only in the cities, but in rural Cuba as well where the conditions are even worse,” Johnson says. “A lack of fuel impacts everything-- the entire system is dependent on electricity, the entire grid.”

$40-a-Gallon Gas and a Grid in Collapse

Johnson says gas costs about $40 a gallon on the black market in Cuba. “In the fields where production is happening, or not happening, tractors aren’t running,” he says. “We’re seeing a real challenge of getting food from the fields to markets.”

USDA reports, the U.S. exported $476.74 million in agricultural goods to Cuba in 2025. Poultry was the top commodity, accounting for about 62% of the sales. Johnson expects overall exports to drop this year, because the energy crisis is making it difficult to transport food. However, he believes there are many opportunities to expand U.S. exports in the future because food production is low.

(U.S. Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service)

““Because we are so close, because we’re building this relationship with the private sector, and because production in Cuba is so low that creates a need for U.S. exports,” he says.

In 2021, Cuba opened over 2,000 industries up to the private sector. The shift has opened the doors for U.S. agricultural exports. Johnson says today about 70% of agricultural sales are going to the private sector. “Why? Because they have money and the Cuban government does not,” Johnson says. “We’re also finding that this private sector reacts quicker as you can imagine. They’re much more dynamic and they’re filling in the gaps as they go along.”

Rice: A Massive Deficit for U.S. Growers to Fill

In 2024, a report by U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Economic Research Service says between marketing years 2016/17 and 2023/24 rice production in Cuba fell from 335,000 metric tons to 140,000 metric tons. USDA reported in 2025, Cuba imported about $16 million dollars of rice from the U.S.

“Cubans depend on rice in every meal. But production in Cuba is down to about 10%,” Johson says. “They consume around 700,000 tons of rice a year and they’re only producing about 75,000 times today. That is one example of the opportunities for our U.S. Rice producers to export more rice to Cubans.”

Looking Toward a Two-Way Future

Johnson says he believes two-way trade between the U.S. and the Caribbean country is incredibly important. “In my experience with American farmers, when they go down to Cuba, they’re really most interested in helping out their neighbors. They see Cuban farmers as their neighbors, and they want to help them,” he says.

He also believes collaboration between U.S Department of Agriculture’s Animal and Plant Inspection Service and Cuba needs to improve in order to keep disease contained and increase Cuba’s food production.

“I think everyone I spoke to from the street to the government, the top of the government. Everyone says the same thing, ‘something’s got to change,” he says. “Everyone recognizes the need for change. What that change looks like? Is what we’re all trying to guess at.”

What You Need to Know: USDA's March 2026 Crop Production and WASDE Numbers

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 15:05:04 GMT

Markets Close: Corn and Wheat Fall While Soybeans Hold

Michelle Rook wraps up the day and where the markets landed with Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc.

Most Notable From Today's Numbers: World Corn Ending Stocks

The March WASDE report is typically a bit of a "snoozer" in terms of updates from USDA, says Lane Akre with Pro Farmer. This year was no exception, though sometimes insight can be gleaned from a lack of change. Perhaps most notable in today’s reports was the world ending stocks figure for corn coming in above expectations. USDA pegged world corn stocks at 292.75 MMT for 2025-26, above expectations of 289.19 MMT and last month at 288.98 MMT. That change can largely be attributed to increased production, though world use is expected to decline as well outside of feed, which is an interesting assumption given the war in Iran. USDA increased Brazilian corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMT and Ukrainian production by 1.7 MMT to 30.7 MMT. Both saw similar increases to ending stocks. USDA remains rather pessimistic over Brazilian production as several private forecasters are forecasting a crop toward 140 MMT. Conab currently pegs the crop at 138 MMT. USDA historically is not this low on production and typically toward the top end of estimates rather than the bottom. Considering the disruption to world energy flows, the cut to world use outside of feed (a large chunk of which is ethanol) is puzzling. Vegetable oil prices have surged amid anticipation of higher use to make of for lower crude, yet corn use was cut. Click here to read more of Akre's takeaways on Pro Farmer.

Listen Now on AgriTalk: Report Reaction From Bill Lapp

Bill Lapp with Advanced Economic Solutions joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to share his take on the March Crop Production and WASDE numbers. Tap here to listen live.

Report Analysis With Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net

Supply and Demand Forecast for U.S. Wheat and Corn

Market Reaction to March WASDE Numbers

Stay on top of the markets in real time on AgWeb's markets page. Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 5 to 7 cents lower, soybeans were 4 to 7 cents higher, wheat futures were 12 to 15 cents lower and cotton was mostly 60 to 80 points higher. Following the report release, there was little market reaction.

No Change in U.S. Ending Stocks

By the Numbers: March WASDE

As anticipated, there are very few changes to the March WASDE. According to Bill Watts with Pro Farmer, the biggest standout might be the bump in global corn ending stocks to 292.75 million metric tons from 288.98 MMT in February, reflecting bigger crops in Brazil and Ukraine. Corn: There are no changes for U.S. corn outlook compared with the February WASDE. The season-average corn price is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion based on increases for Ukraine and Brazil, which are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Trade changes include higher corn exports for India. Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher, while Argentina's exports are reduced. Global corn ending stocks are up 3.8 million to 292.8 million tons, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Soybeans: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports are increased 5 million bushels. Crush is raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean oil domestic use is marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use is lowered 800 million pounds to 14 billion and soybean oil ending stocks are revised slightly higher. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 350 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $5 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents. Global soybean production is reduced on lower production in Argentina (down 0.5 million tons to 48 million) and Ukraine (reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million). Global soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine Wheat: There are no changes for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories. The season-average farm price is up 5 cents per bushel to $4.95. The 2025/26 global outlook projects larger supplies and consumption but reduces trade and ending stocks. Supplies increase by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million, primarily on increased output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that is partly offset by lower production in Australia. Australian production is down by 1 million tons, with harvest nearly complete, to 36 million – its third highest on record. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the European Union. World trade is up 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million, with larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan that are mostly offset by lower forecasts for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 277 million but remain at a five-year high. For a break down of global production highlights, visit Pro Farmer's report reaction.

Dan Basse Shares a Boots-On-the Ground Report from Brazil

What to Expect From USDA On Corn, Soybeans and Wheat

The report, due at 11 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less. It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Donald Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million metric tons. In its February WASDE, USDA acknowledged China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet. Corn exports continue to run well ahead of their expected pace, but USDA might be reluctant to further boost what is already a record forecast, possibly opting to wait another month or two. USDA’s take on South American production isn’t likely to see a big shift. In February, USDA raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180 million metric tons, up from 178 million metric tons in January. Argentina was left unchanged at 48.5 million metric tons. Private forecasters have since issued projections above and below USDA’s Brazil forecast as harvest progresses in northern Mato Grosso. Harvest in Brazil is under way and yield reports are generally strong, though significant quality concerns were reported in northern Mato Grosso. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to trim its Brazil forecast by 600,000 metric tons to 179.4 million metric tons and take 200,000 metric tons off the Argentina estimate to 48.3 million metric tons. Corn estimates are also unlikely to see a major shift. USDA pegged Brazil’s crop at 131 million metric tons in February and Argentina at 53 million metric tons. Analysts expect USDA to raise its Brazilian corn estimate by 1 million metric tons to 132 million metric tons, while shaving 100,000 metric tons off Argentina’s crop to 52.9 million metric tons. For more on what to expect in the February WASDE report, head on over to Pro Farmer.

U.S.-China Trade Truce Extension Fuels Hope in Agriculture for Final Deal in April

Fri, 13 Feb 2026 18:46:28 GMT

The trade truce between the U.S. and China might be extended, which is fueling hopes for additional purchases of U.S. agricultural products, including soybeans.

The South China Morning Post reported President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping could extend their trade truce by as much as a year. At the recent Top Producer Summit , Jiang Lyu, the minister of economic and commercial affairs for the Chinese embassy in the U.S., said he’s also optimistic about an extension for at least one year as well as a cut in tariffs. He also confirmed Trump and Xi might be getting ready to sign a final trade deal when they meet in China in April that will include deliverables.

“We have always wanted this trade to be market driven, so the market forces and the market players can play the primary role in all this. As for whether or not this can be fulfilled, I think this is also something that we would like to have the collaboration with the U.S. government because, as I said earlier, this is a, to borrow your word, trade truce. The truce has a timeline of one year. We would like this one year to be extended, preferably into eternity,” Lyu said.

China’s Goodwill Soybean Buy

At Top Producer Summit, Susan Stroud of No Bull Ag says this might be the reason President Trump posted on Truth Social last week that China was purchasing another 8 MMT of old-crop soybeans, even with Brazil’s soybeans $1 cheaper.

“These are trade negotiations — goodwill purchases,” she said. “Although it doesn’t make sense, it’s something that we could quite possibly see. I think the market is really tuned into this visit that Trump is scheduled to make in April to China.”

Will Soybeans Be Included in Tariff Cuts?

Currently, U.S. soybeans still face a 13% import tariff into China, so the first 12 MMT of purchases have been by state-owned enterprises Cofco and Sinograin.

“If the Chinese, Sinograin and the government, is buying, that’s a 10% tariff on themselves. They can wave that,” explains Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation and former USTR chief ag negotiator.

Dropping the tariff would make it economical for Chinese crushers. Lyu confirmed China will drop the 10% reciprocal tariff on U.S. soybeans if the U.S. drops the fentanyl tariff.

“There is 10% on the U.S. side. That is the reciprocal tariff for Chinese products. The countermeasure, 10%, is now from the Chinese side. This is squarely on the soybeans going into China. If the former 10% from the U.S. side can be removed, of course, China will take away its countermeasures, like the 10%,” Lyu says.

Possible Trade Deal to Be Signed at April Meeting

Lyu is optimistic a deal and deliverables will be made public during the April meeting. Speculation has run rampant since Oct. 30 because the Chinese government has never confirmed the framework or purchase amounts.

Immediately following the meeting in Busan, South Korea, Scott Bessent, U.S. Treasury Secretary, detailed the trade framework between the two countries, saying it included 12 MMT of soybean purchases for this year and 25 MMT for the three years to follow.

“As for those numbers, I cannot confirm nor deny here because you don’t see that from the official announcements from the foreign ministry spokesperson or the MOFCOM spokesperson,” Lyu said.

There was confusion around whether soybean purchase commitments were for the calendar year or the marketing year, but Lyu was able to provide some clarity on the first phase of the framework: “It’s a marketing year and a crop year, so to speak, because that is the logic, right?”

While there’s been no official deal signed, Doud says the U.S. and China are still operating under the Phase One agreement.

“What you’re back to doing in this situation is more transactional. It’s more of a conversation between countries on different issues. You’ve got fentanyl, you’ve got all kinds of different intellectual property issues. Agriculture gets tied back up in that again,” Doud says.

A signed agreement in writing will provide much-needed certainty for the market.

The "What If" Scenario: How Geopolitical Anxiety Could Shift the U.S. Corn Market

Thu, 12 Feb 2026 19:32:02 GMT

USDA’s Jan. 12 Annual Crop Summary and World Ag Supply & Demand Estimates featured a corn crop estimate that was so large it left me wondering if the country’s grain-handling system could handle it. Total corn use for 2025-26 is estimated at 16.4 billion bushels, and in the short time since the report, there is evidence the system can handle it. A record corn supply should put pressure on the national average corn basis, but basis so far this year is (on average) above the three-year average. The cash market is doing what it should to attract supplies to move to end users.

Corn exports are already estimated at a record for the current marketing year, and most do not expect the estimate to change much from January’s 3.2 billion bushels. Corn sales and export inspections through the end of January were on pace to get to USDA’s estimate but not strong enough to suggest exports of more than 3.2 billion.

The “What If” Scenario

But what if demand in importing countries suddenly expands? Not a sudden increase in feed consumption or biofuels production, but a surge of geopolitical uncertainty where countries that rely on imports suddenly feel the anxiety of food insecurity.

The Jan. 31 issue of Pro Farmer included an item the editors first saw in The Financial Times. It reported on “a trend among governments around the world, which decades after dismantling food reserves and putting their faith in global trade, are now rebuilding emergency stockpiles.” The report noted countries from Sweden and Norway to India and Indonesia are building emergency reserves, spooked by fears of a world they see as growing increasingly unstable.

It’s the same uncertainty that weighed on the value of the U.S. dollar and pushed precious metal prices higher than ever. I know, it’s not that simple. But with central banks accumulating gold reserves to build financial security, it’s not unthinkable countries will build grain and energy reserves. That would be a sudden increase in demand that changes the outlook for all grains.

That is, of course, if the system can handle it. Demand beyond 16.4 billion bushels would stress the system, but there is no reason to think the U.S. lacks the infrastructure to make it happen. And if the system can’t handle the demand, or if demand falters, the cash market will make it known through a declining basis market.

For now, flat price is low enough to encourage more demand, and the cash market tells us demand is good enough for better-than-average basis. Use marketing strategies that capture the above-average basis but give demand a chance to prove low prices cure low prices.

What a 4-Year Low in the Dollar Means for Agriculture

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 20:37:31 GMT

The U.S. dollar index sank to four-year lows this week after President Donald Trump said he was comfortable with the depreciation of the U.S. currency because it’s “good for American businesses.”

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, appearing on CNBC, tried to walk back the president’s comments to stabilize the currency saying, “The U.S. always has a strong-dollar policy.”

Weak Dollar Translates Into Increased Exports

Alan Brugler with A&N Economics Inc. says Trump’s goal when he took office was to erase the U.S. trade deficit. Tariffs have been part of the strategy, but to increase exports it also helps to have a cheaper currency. He says that has been evident in strong export sales totals the last few weeks, especially for corn.

So, the four-year lows in the dollar are good for agriculture, according to Brugler.

“What we’re seeing right now is, I think, intentional — that is, to get a little weaker dollar and, of course, that does help commodities in general,” he says. “If you have a weaker dollar, you get get more exports. You also get, just by definition, if the dollar is weaker, it takes more dollars to buy the same amount of value. So, that that bushel of soybeans or, you know, that steer are worth more in dollar terms if the dollar’s weaker.”

Lower Dollar and Inflation Fears

Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says the lower dollar is also fueling talk about renewing inflation.

“The Fed leaving rates unchanged shows that they’re concerned about inflation as well,” he says. “And so I think there’s been a lot of talk about money being reallocated to commodities. And generally speaking, that’s a commoditywide thing. So, the grain markets are finding some strength in that.”

Lower Dollar Could Bring Fund Money Into Grain Markets

Fund managers have also been buying precious metals and pushing those to record highs to offset the devaluation of the dollar. However, Brugler says that position is getting overextended, and so the funds have been buying grains to diversify.

“If you’re buying gold and silver because of the debasement argument that the currency is going to be weaker, maybe this is the opportunity to start buying what look to be undervalued assets here as we go into the end of January,” he explains.

Grains Look Undervalued

With grain prices at multiyear lows, that is one commodity that is undervalued.

“Yeah. Soybeans definitely fit the bill on an inflation adjusted basis. Corn is is very cheap,” Brugler says. “And wheat near five bucks or thereabouts, that’s a nine-year cycle low.”

Will Grains See Additional Speculative Buying?

So, will the speculators and money managers keep buying grains, and could this finally be the catalyst to produce a sustained rally in the grain markets?

Brugler is optimistic.

“I think you could definitely see some more fund buying,” he says. “Again, you’ve got the weak dollar, which says commodity prices in general ought to go up. You’ve also got a need for diversification.”

The currency devaluation is also stimulating other agricultural exports as pork sales came in at a whopping 56,000 metric tons this week, with China being 16,000 metric tons of that business.

Grains Extend Gains Early on Exports, Dollar Then Fail

Thu, 29 Jan 2026 16:20:10 GMT

Grain markets are higher again Thursday morning. Cattle started higher and then turned mixed with hogs mostly higher.

Grains Make New Highs for the Move on Money Flow
Grain futures are higher to start Thursday seeing follow through buying with wheat even pushing to new highs for the move. Alan Brugler with A&E Economics, Inc. says the buying interest by the managed money or funds is tied to money flow into the grains. He says with the dollar index at four-year lows and precious metals at all time highs there are some money managers that are looking at the grains as under valued.

Lower Dollar Also Stimulates Export Business
The lower dollar and the price break in grains after the January WASDE report have also stimulated good end-user demand Brugler notes. He says last week was an outstanding week for exports, especially corn and while export sales were below last week they were still solid. For the week ended Jan. 22, corn exports came in at 65 million bu. with soybeans at 30.1 million bu. and China had solid soybean export shipments. Soy products were also strong with soybean meal sales at 464,300 MT and soybean oil at 22,100 MT. Wheat exports were also solid at 20.5 million bu.

Will the Funds Keep Buying and Change the Trend in Grains?
The question now is with corn, soybeans and wheat on the verge of chart breakouts will the funds continue to buy? Brugler says he’s watching key chart points in grains. For example, in the March corn a close above the 40-day moving average of $4.38 will be needed to keep the momentum intact. March soybeans cleared the 200-day moving average, but the next obstacle will be the 100-day at $10.82 1/2 for a closing price and for November soybeans the market has confirmed a double bottom but again is running into chart resistance.

Wheat Seeing Short Covering
Brugler says the wheat market is seeing short covering as funds were short more than 125,000 contract in the three classes combined (futures only). March soft red winter wheat is above the 100-day moving average but is also approaching resistance at the 200-day at $5.56. A close above that level is needed to get the funds to exit more of that short position.

Weather or Biofuels News?
So are the grain markets putting in any weather premium especially with concerns about Argentina’s hot and dry conditions? Brugler says the Brazilian crop estimates continue to climb and that will offset any losses in Argentina so he doesn’t think the market is that concerned yet. And he doesn’t think the wheat markte is adding weather premium based on the cold temperatures recently or in the extended forecast.

Biofuels news has been more supportive lately regarding E15, the RVOs and 45Z guidance being released but Brugler says those are longer term demand stories for the market.

Cattle Make News Highs for the Move Then Pause
Both live and feeder cattle futures opened higher and scored new highs for the move but then paused and the live cattle even saw some consolidation. Brugler says the market is waiting for cash and the semi-annual cattle inventory report from USDA on Friday before moving much higher. However, he thinks the market will eventually retest the October all-time highs.

Lean Hogs Mostly Higher, See Great Exports
Lean hog futures were back up on Thursday after seeing some profit taking on Wednesday. The futures have been continuing to be bought on breaks and April through the deferred contracts have repeatedly made new contract highs. Brugler says its a combination of fund buying, talk of disease and strong demand. Weekly pork exports were strong at 56,000 MT and China was in for nearly 16,000 MT of those sales. The rising cash index has been helping as well and was up another $.79 to $85.22.