India

U.S. Ramps up Tariff Pressure on India

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 18:51:22 GMT

The Trump Administration on Monday outlined plans to implement a 50% tariff on products from India, the latest signal that the U.S. plans to push ahead with the higher duties. The notice posted by the Department of Homeland Security said that the increased levies would hit Indian products “that are entered for consumption, or withdrawn from warehouse for consumption, on or after 12:01 a.m. eastern daylight time on August 27, 2025.” President Trump announced plans earlier this month to double tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 50% due to India’s purchases of Russian oil, in hopes of pressuring Russian President Vladimir Putin to the negotiating table to end the Russia-Ukraine war.

More from Pro Farmer.

Promising Potential? Why India Poses the Biggest Opportunity for Trade, But Also the Biggest Challenge

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 15:45:47 GMT

As trade tensions continue to impact both commodity and financial markets, the White House says the Trump administration is making progress on additional trade deals. The news comes as Vice President JD Vance was in the middle of a four-day visit to India, with both countries saying they had made progress in negotiating a bilateral trade deal. Delhi hopes this deal will help it avoid higher tariffs.

Vance announced the U.S. and India have “officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation.” He called it a “vital step,” saying it sets a roadmap toward a final deal.

India is just one of several trade deals in the works, according to the Trump administration. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday the Trump administration now has “18 proposals on paper” for trade deals.

“You have Secretary Bessent, Secretary Lutnick, Ambassador Greer, NEC Director Hassett and Peter Navarro, the entire trade team meeting with 34 countries this week alone,” Leavitt said in the press briefing. “We are moving at Trump speed to ensure these deals are made on behalf of the American worker and the American people.”

Leavitt also announced “the president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China.”

The Wall Street Journal reported the White House is considering slashing tariffs in order to de-escalate the trade war. Currently, tariffs are at 145%, but the White House isn’t considering cutting those to zero. Instead, the Wall Street Journal reports those tariffs will likely fall anywhere between 50% to 65%.

However, Treasury Secretary Bessent declined to comment on that report, saying there’s no unilateral offer from President Trump to cut tariffs on China. He also said it could take two to three years to reach a full trade deal with China.

Progress With India
Before the White House’s 90-day pause on higher tariffs for other countries expires on July 9, India is one country rushing to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S.

Just this week, Vance and Prime Minister Modi announced the t erms of reference for a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and India. The progress toward the agreement was a result of the meeting between the two this week.

“I am pleased to confirm that USTR and India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry have finalized the Terms of Reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations on reciprocal trade,” Greer said. “There is a serious lack of reciprocity in the trade relationship with India. These ongoing talks will help achieve balance and reciprocity by opening new markets for American goods and addressing unfair practices that harm American workers. India’s constructive engagement so far has been welcomed and I look forward to creating new opportunities for workers, farmers and entrepreneurs in both countries.”

During Vance’s speech in Jaipur prior to that, he said that the two countries had finalized the terms of reference for the negotiation.

“This is a vital step toward realizing President Trump and Prime Minister Modi’s vision because it sets a roadmap toward a final deal between our nations,” Vance said.

India’s Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture Products
India’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods are significant, which is a major point of contention in the U.S. and India trade relationship. Walnuts, for example, face a tariff of 100% into India. Vegetable oils have a tariff of up to 45%.

The United States has one of the lowest average applied tariff rates on agricultural products. But many of our trading partners maintain prohibitive tariff rates that constrain export opportunities for American farmers and ranchers.

Unfair and non-reciprocal practices have… pic.twitter.com/mmy5spBEzl
— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) April 23, 2025

The U.S. argues these tariffs are unfair trade barriers, and Mark Knight of Farmer’s Keeper Financial told AgDay the U.S. relationship with India over the years has been complex and strange.

“Sometimes it’s friendly, for the most part. But that’s a giant population, and it would go a long way toward making a potential deal with China less important if we could strike some deals with some of these other countries — especially India. We haven’t had something in place with India for years.”

India Has the Most Potential, But Poses the Biggest Problem
If you want to understand just how problematic India has been for trade in the past, just talk to Gregg Doud. He’s the current CEO of National Milk Producers Federation (NMFP) but served as the chief ag trade negotiator during the first Trump administration.

During an episode of “Unscripted” earlier this year, he said India has the most potential, but is the biggest problem.

Doud says history shows you India has been a problem, as the U.S. essentially kicked India out of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the past. The U.S. did finally agree to allow India back into the WTO, but under certain terms.

“I don’t want what I’m about to say to be seen as being negative toward the discussion between Modi and President Trump earlier this year, but one of the wins we did get in agriculture — which is my understanding based on some conversations — is that India lowered the tariff on U.S. bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Doud says.

He says while that may not have been the only win, it serves as an example for how difficult it is to negotiate with India.

India is a big customer of one main U.S. ag product, though: almonds .

In the 2023/24 crop year, the U.S. exported over 400 million lb. of almonds to India, making it the largest export market for California almonds. This was a 21% increase compared to the previous year. India’s almond imports from the U.S. were valued at $932 million in FY 2023.

India is the United States’ top buyer of almonds.

(U.S. Almond Board )

Doud says India has high tariffs to protect their own farmers.

“Think of it as a half billion farmers in India whose electricity, water, fuel, fertilizer and seed is all subsidized. India wants to keep that out in the country, and if we do anything that drives rural Indian folks into the cities, it would overwhelm them. This is the mindset,” Doud says. “I remind people, it was 5 or 6 years ago that India made a modicum of reforms of their domestic agricultural markets. There was so much unrest over those changes that Modi agreed upon to make, that three years later, they had to repeal the law.”

India’s Tariffs Crushed Apple Exports
U.S. apples are one commodity that has suffered from India’s retaliation in 2018.

“In 2018, India was the No. 2 market for U.S. apples until their retaliatory tariffs crushed our exports to near zero. They are rebounding back, but it might take years to return to the previous levels,” says Jim Bair, president and CEO of the U.S. Apple Association, in an interview with Farm Journal’s The Packer. “If the White House can facilitate that in a trade agreement with India, U.S. Apple wishes them Godspeed, and not a moment too soon.”

U.S. Apple says in 2018, India was the number two market for U.S. apples until retaliatory tariffs crushed their exports to near zero.

(U.S. Apple Association )

Potential With India
As the world’s most populous country, India holds massive potential if a trade deal can be struck. It boasts one of the fastest growing economies in the world with households that are seeing a high levels of consumer spending. That means agricultural products would be more accessible to a larger number of people.

According to USDA , top agricultural prospects for U.S. exporters include:

Cotton
Dairy products
Ethanol
Fresh fruit
Forest products
Processed food and beverages
Pulses
Tree nuts

USDA says in FY 2023, India imported $37 billion of agricultural and related products from across the world, with imports up 51% over the past five years.

“Proportional to its population, India imports a relatively small value of products. Comparatively, China, a country with a similar population size, imported $262.7 billion during the same period. Currently, India ranks behind much lower population countries like Canada and South Korea in total agricultural and related imports. This relatively low level of imports suggests good opportunities for future growth,” the USDA report stated.

Much of the recent growth of imports in India is with vegetable oils, which is the country’s top imported ag product.

USDA says imports of vegetable oil increased by $9 billion, nearly doubling in 5 years, to a total of $18.4 billion in FY 2023.

The United States has occasionally been a supplier of soybean oil to India, but imports face stiff competition from other substitutable oils like palm and sunflower, and from imports from India’s traditional soybean oil suppliers: Argentina and Brazil.

Trump Moves to Impose Reciprocal Tariffs, And It Could Reshape U.S. Trade Policy

Thu, 13 Feb 2025 20:41:45 GMT

President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Thursday , directing his administration to impose reciprocal tariffs on foreign countries with high tariffs and non-tariff barriers on U.S. exports.

These customized levies, expected to be finalized by April, are designed to rebalance trade relationships and target unfair practices, including subsidies, regulations, and exchange rate manipulation.

The proposed tariffs will be calculated on a country-by-country basis and could apply broadly to industries such as automobiles, semiconductors, and pharmaceuticals. Trump cited the European Union’s value-added tax (VAT) and restrictive regulations as examples of unfair trade practices, along with Japan and South Korea, which he claims have long taken advantage of the U.S.

“Whatever countries charge us, we will charge them back,” Trump said from the Oval Office, declaring the end of what he sees as a one-sided trade relationship. He indicated that additional import taxes beyond reciprocal tariffs would be imposed later.

Of Note:

The Trump Administration will first look at the countries with the highest tariffs on U.S. goods. An official briefing reporters said the tariffs could come into effect in weeks or months.

“For many years the United States has been treated unfairly by trading partners, both friend and foe,” according to a memorandum Trump signed. “This lack of reciprocity is one source of our country’s large and persistent annual trade deficits in goods. I’ve decided, for purposes of fairness, that I will charge a reciprocal tariff, meaning whatever countries charge the United States of America,” Trump said in announcing the new tariffs. “In almost all cases, they’re charging us vastly more than we charge them, but those days are over.”

Trump also said that tariffs on cars, semiconductors and pharmaceuticals in addition to the reciprocal tariffs will come “shortly.”

The official briefing reporters said the aim is to have discussions with countries about how their policies have created a trade imbalance and that Trump would be more than happy to lower tariffs if countries want to pare their tariffs or remove other trade barriers.

Marks a Major Shift in U.S. Trade Strategy

The reciprocal tariff plan marks a sharp departure from the “most favored nation” principle that has guided global trade policy since the post-World War II era. Under this system, all trading partners receive equal treatment unless covered by a specific trade agreement. Trump’s new approach aims to align U.S. tariff policies with those of its trading partners, effectively abandoning this long-standing norm.

Howard Lutnick, Trump’s nominee for Commerce Secretary, said studies and calculations would be completed by April 1, after which Trump could act immediately. The tariffs will require detailed analysis for nearly 200 countries, each with its own complex tariff schedules and trade regulations — a big task for the U.S. Trade Representative and Commerce Department.

Key: The executive order says: “Within 180 days of the date of this memorandum, the Director of the Office of Management and Budget shall assess all fiscal impacts on the Federal Government and the impacts of any information collection requests on the public, and shall deliver an assessment in writing to the President.”

You can read the full White House Fact Sheet here .

Negotiation or Brinkmanship?

While the plan seems aggressive, Trump’s decision to delay immediate implementation could be a strategic move to encourage negotiations, as he successfully did with Mexico, Canada, and Colombia. He emphasized that he would be open to reducing tariffs if other nations lowered theirs or eliminated non-tariff barriers. “It’s a two-way street,” Lutnick said, suggesting the administration remains flexible if partners engage in reciprocal concessions.

However, Trump stated that exemptions and waivers would be rare. He referenced Apple Inc.’s past exemption during his China tariffs but insisted this round would apply to all companies and countries without exceptions.

Global Implications

The new tariff plan could particularly hurt developing nations that impose higher average duties on U.S. imports. It differs from Trump’s earlier campaign proposal for a universal tariff on all imports. Instead, reciprocal tariffs will be tailored to match specific foreign policies and trade barriers.

India could be one of the hardest-hit countries, with its historically high tariffs on U.S. goods. Trump’s announcement came just hours before a scheduled meeting with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, signaling that the topic would feature prominently in their discussions.

Trump’s tariff push follows his earlier move to impose a 10% tariff on Chinese goods and plans for 25% tariffs on U.S. steel and aluminum imports next month. The breadth of the new directive suggests a significant expansion of his trade war strategy, which has already injected uncertainty into global markets and left businesses waiting for clarity.

Of note:
While Trump and his advisers blame U.S. trade deficits on unfair foreign practices, many economists argue these imbalances are largely driven by broader macroeconomic factors, such as consumer demand, the U.S. dollar’s status as a reserve currency, and global appetite for U.S. assets.

Farm Groups and Farm-State Lawmaker Reactions: Growing Alarm Over Reciprocal Tariffs

Trump’s proposal for reciprocal tariffs will likely spark reactions from some U.S. farm groups and lawmakers representing agricultural states, many of whom fear negative impacts on rural economies and American farmers.

Key Concerns from the Agriculture Sector

Loss of Export Markets: Many farmers fear that countries like Japan, South Korea, Mexico, and the EU will retaliate by targeting U.S. corn, soybeans, pork, dairy, and beef exports.
Financial Pressure on Farmers: After years of trade uncertainty and declining commodity prices, new tariffs could push many farms to the brink of bankruptcy.
Global Competitiveness: Other countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, could quickly fill the void in markets like China, permanently reducing U.S. market share.
Rural Economic Decline: Tariffs on farm goods have a ripple effect, hurting local businesses, equipment manufacturers, and rural banks that rely on the agriculture economy.

What Farm Groups May Demand

Exemptions for Agricultural Exports: Some farm groups are urging the White House to exempt agricultural products from reciprocal tariffs to avoid retaliation.
Prioritize Trade Agreements: Several organizations called for the administration to focus on new trade deals rather than escalating tariff battles.
Direct Financial Support: If tariffs are imposed, farm groups will push for expanded federal relief programs like those used during the U.S./China trade war.

Global and Economic Reactions to Trump’s Reciprocal Tariff Plan

President Trump’s proposal to impose reciprocal tariffs has triggered mixed reactions from global leaders, economists, and business groups, with many warning of significant economic repercussions and potential retaliation from U.S. trading partners.

International Response: Concern and Potential Retaliation

European Union (EU): EU officials expressed concerns about escalating trade tensions and hinted at preparing countermeasures. The EU is particularly sensitive to Trump’s criticism of its value-added tax (VAT) system and regulatory barriers.
Japan and South Korea: Both countries are seen as key targets of the new tariffs. Japanese trade officials stated that they were monitoring the situation closely and emphasized the importance of open markets. South Korea warned that reciprocal tariffs could disrupt supply chains, particularly in the technology and automotive sectors.
India: With historically high tariffs on U.S. goods, India is one of the most affected nations. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to address the issue in upcoming talks with Trump. Analysts predict India could seek bilateral negotiations to avoid harsh tariff penalties.
China: Though not directly addressed in this announcement, China could view the move as part of Trump’s broader trade war strategy, increasing tensions even further. Chinese officials reiterated their stance on global trade stability and multilateral solutions.

Economic Experts: Risks of Economic Disruption

Most economists criticized the plan, arguing that trade deficits reflect structural economic factors, such as consumer spending patterns and currency valuation, rather than unfair trade practices alone.

Bloomberg Economics predicted significant disruptions in emerging markets, where tariffs on U.S. goods are generally higher, and economies are more vulnerable.
Trade Uncertainty: Businesses fear an unpredictable environment. Companies dependent on global supply chains—especially in the automotive, semiconductor, and pharmaceutical industries—are bracing for increased costs and operational complexity.
Potential Consumer Impact: Higher tariffs could lead to increased prices for U.S. consumers, particularly on imported goods like cars and electronics, experts warned.

Business Community Reaction: Cautious but Wary

U.S. Chamber of Commerce: Called for careful negotiation to avoid a full-blown trade war. “Reciprocal tariffs may help level the playing field,” a spokesperson said, “but they should be used as a last resort.”
Tech Industry: Companies like Apple are watching closely, given the potential impact on semiconductors and electronics imports. While Trump had previously granted Apple exemptions, this round may be far more restrictive.
Automotive Sector: Industry leaders warned that tariffs on car imports could reduce competitiveness and lead to job losses in U.S.-based manufacturing plants dependent on imported components.

Global Markets on Edge

The announcement injected volatility into global financial markets, with stocks in industries such as automotive, technology, and pharmaceuticals facing pressure. Investors remain uncertain about how aggressively the U.S. will enforce these tariffs and whether it could trigger retaliatory measures that harm global growth.

Expanded Global Country Responses and Market Impact

President Donald Trump’s plan for reciprocal tariffs has drawn sharp reactions across the globe, leaving governments scrambling to assess the potential consequences. The global financial markets have also reacted with volatility, particularly in industries most likely to be affected by the proposed changes.

Country-Specific Reactions

European Union (EU): Preparing for Retaliation
The EU sees Trump’s tariff strategy as a direct threat to its trade practices.

Targeted Sectors: Trump has repeatedly cited the 15% VAT and restrictions on U.S. agricultural exports as examples of unfair barriers.
Possible Retaliation: The EU is considering countermeasures, likely targeting U.S. agricultural products, Boeing aircraft, and tech companies.
Official Response: EU Trade Commissioner said, “We urge the U.S. to avoid actions that disrupt the global trade system. If necessary, the EU will defend its interests.”

Japan: Concern Over Automotive and Tech Exports

Japan is alarmed by the possibility of tariffs on automobiles and semiconductors, two of its most critical exports.

Automotive Sector: Tariffs on Japanese cars could significantly impact the country’s economy, where automobiles account for nearly 20% of total exports to the U.S.
Tech and Electronics: Semiconductor and electronics companies like Sony and Toshiba are bracing for higher costs and potential supply chain disruptions.
Diplomatic Response: Japan’s Ministry of Trade warned that “the move could destabilize longstanding trade ties” and emphasized the importance of resolving disputes through multilateral frameworks like the WTO.

South Korea: High-Tech Industries at Risk
South Korea’s tech and pharmaceutical sectors are directly in the line of fire.

Samsung Electronics, one of the world’s largest semiconductor manufacturers, stands to be heavily affected if Trump’s tariffs cover microchips.
Auto Industry: Hyundai and Kia have expressed concerns over potential tariffs on vehicle imports, which would raise prices for U.S. consumers and reduce their competitiveness.
Government Stance: The South Korean government indicated it would seek bilateral negotiations and warned that tariffs could lead to mutual economic harm.

India: High Tariff Barriers in Focus
India could be one of the hardest-hit countries due to its high tariffs on U.S. imports, especially in agriculture, medical devices, and tech products.

Key Sectors: U.S./India trade tensions are likely to rise, particularly in the pharmaceutical and automobile sectors, where India has long imposed protective tariffs.
Modi-Trump Talks: Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to use upcoming talks to negotiate exemptions or reductions in targeted areas.
Domestic Impact: Analysts warn that higher tariffs could reduce India’s access to critical U.S. technology and agricultural products, affecting domestic businesses and consumers.

China: Watching Closely
Although China was not a primary target of this announcement, it remains cautious, given Trump’s history of escalating trade disputes.

Strategic Watch: Chinese officials see Trump’s move as part of a broader trade containment strategy.
Potential Retaliation: If included in future tariff rounds, China could respond by targeting U.S. agricultural products, energy exports, and tech firms.

Market Impact: Volatility and Sectoral Effects

Trump’s announcement has caused uncertainty in global financial markets, with some sectors feeling immediate pressure.

Stock Market Reactions

Automotive Stocks: Companies like Toyota, Hyundai, and BMW saw share prices dip on fears of higher tariffs and reduced competitiveness in the U.S.
Tech Sector: Semiconductor giants such as Samsung and Intel are facing concerns about increased costs if tariffs extend to microchips and related technologies.
Pharmaceuticals: Multinational drug manufacturers, including Pfizer and Novartis, are bracing for disruptions in global supply chains and higher costs.

Currency Market Volatility

The announcement triggered fluctuations in Asian and European currencies as investors assessed the risk of a full-scale trade war.
The U.S. dollar initially strengthened on expectations that tariffs might reduce the trade deficit, but analysts warn this could be temporary if retaliatory measures weaken U.S. exports.

Commodity Market Impact

Agricultural Commodities: Potential retaliatory tariffs from trading partners could hit U.S. farmers, particularly those exporting soybeans, corn, and dairy products.
Steel and Aluminum: Following earlier tariffs on these products, prices for industrial metals may rise further, increasing production costs in manufacturing-heavy industries.

Broader Economic Consequences

Economists caution that the uncertainty alone could slow global growth by reducing business investment and cross-border trade.

Supply Chain Disruptions: Many industries rely on global supply chains, and new tariffs could force companies to restructure operations at significant cost.
Consumer Prices: U.S. consumers may face higher prices on imported goods, particularly in sectors like electronics, automobiles, and household goods.

Long-Term Risks

Global Trade Fragmentation: If other countries adopt similar protectionist measures, it could lead to the fragmentation of the global trading system, reversing decades of economic integration.
Shift in Trade Alliances: Countries excluded from U.S. tariff targeting may seek regional trade alliances to reduce their dependence on U.S. markets.

Tariffs Aren't Going To Be Our Largest Trade Issue

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 20:54:19 GMT

The most overused word in the English language since November has to be the word “tariff” as speculation runs rampant on how much a Trump 2.0 presidency will use this controversial trade negotiation tool.

Here’s a sampling, so you get the idea: “Think About Making These Purchases Before the Trump Tariffs are Enacted”, U.S. News; “U.S. Carmakers Face Rough Ride Under Trump Tariffs”, Bloomberg.com; and “Bourbon Industry Concerned About Looming Tariffs”, LEX18. You know it’s bad when tariffs threaten to make it harder to drink your troubles away!

Tariffs can disrupt almost any industry, but U.S. agriculture has already seen this movie.

During Trump’s first term, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service, retaliatory tariffs reduced U.S. agricultural exports by $27 billion from mid-2018 when the tariffs were imposed to the end of 2019. Soybeans accounted for the majority of the decline at 71%, followed by sorghum and pork at 7% and 5%, respectively. The losses were primarily concentrated in states, such as Iowa, Illinois and Kansas, exporting these products.

As a result of ag being caught in the cross fire of a new trade war, the USDA allocated $23 billion in trade-aid payments to U.S. producers. However, the rest of the story is that the Trump administration’s tough-line trade tactics ultimately led to the China Phase I deal and record exports to China and record farm income in 2021 and 2022.

That turned out to be short-lived. Even with the Phase I deal still in place, 2024 saw a serious erosion of U.S. agricultural exports to the Chinese mainland. After reaching a high of $36.38 billion in goods in 2022, USDA ERS projected 2024’s final export tally to China was expected to come in at only $23.3 billion.

So What Exactly Went Wrong This Time Around?
One could still blame such an export freefall on some of the tariffs that are still in place. But the truth is that the U.S. is now navigating the most troubled geopolitical waters since the Cold War days of JFK and Ronald Reagan. Simply put, China and Russia—aka the old Soviet Union—are not our friends.

What should be concerning, to those in U.S. agriculture and beyond, is the influence these two countries now have over a multi-country trading alliance referred to as BRICS. That acronym is short for the Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa alliance.

The original members of BRICS held their first summit in Russia in 2009 and sought to establish themselves as a geopolitical club to counter the influence of the G7 nations: the U.S., Canada, United Kingdom, Germany, France, Italy and Japan. Their agenda at that first meeting was firmly shaped by the global recession and, therefore, mostly focused on redistributing voting rights in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank in favor of the developing world. One of the most controversial statements to come out of that 2009 meeting was the calling for a new global reserve currency. From that point on, it was clear that the dominance of the U.S. dollar was being put on notice by the members of BRICS.

Today, the trading bloc is the world’s largest by population and accounts for about 37% of the world’s grain. China has been particularly aggressive in strategic moves with countries within BRICS. In 2023, Brazil was China’s largest source of agricultural imports. This movement of agricultural products accounted for more than 50% of Brazil’s total trade with China and 24.85% of China’s overall agricultural imports. No longer are U.S. farmers China’s primary source of imported soybeans or corn.

Real-Life Monopoly
Right now, China is buying up railroads in Brazil plus upgrading and expanding port facilities. Between 2007 and 2022, China invested $71.6 billion in 235 projects carried out in Brazil. The country’s investment and buying spree have been more impressive within the continent of Africa. At present, 53 out of 54 nations in Africa are part of China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), which supports building key infrastructure projects throughout Africa, Asia and Europe. The projects intend to provide improved shipping corridors for precious raw materials and commodities. As of 2023, the two-way investment between China and its BRI partners had reached $380 billion.

If U.S. agricultural exports to China continue their decline, then it won’t be because of the “T” word. It will be because China holds a majority of railroads, utilities and low-cost properties on the world’s Monopoly board. Why buy U.S. soybeans when you can ship them from Brazil on your own railroad to your own port to your own container ship? Same goes for precious metals in Africa or oil in Russia or Iran. If you already own everything but Boardwalk and Park Place, then you don’t need the economies of the West to be involved as you plot your future livelihood.

Time To Take Control
A lot of unknowns exist as the second iteration of the Trump presidency begins. But this is clear. In 2023, the U.S. trade deficit with China was a whopping $279.4 billion. Those are the very dollars subsidizing a railroad somewhere in Brazil or a superhighway in South Africa—all to our own detriment. For the sake of our own future, we must start negotiating trade deals from a position of strength instead of begging for mercy. “Speak softly, and carry a big stick” was Teddy Roosevelt’s mantra during his time as president. When it comes to U.S. agricultural trade, we need Trump to start channeling his inner Teddy beginning Jan. 20, 2025.

Proof of Concept: Regenerative Technology Reduces Methane Emission in Rice Production

Fri, 08 Nov 2024 14:42:48 GMT

By Chandrashekhar ‘Shekhar’ Bhadsavle: Raigad, Maharashtra State, India

The black birds were a good omen.

We didn’t know it at the time. We just thought their appearance on our farm was unusual. The black ibis is a rare sight in our village.

The arrival of these birds in the dozens heralded what we now can celebrate as a breakthrough in the cultivation of rice: The ability to grow this staple crop with greatly reduced methane emissions.

We call it the Saguna Regenerative Technique —a no-till approach to agriculture that can simultaneously improve productivity and soil health and reduce water consumption and greenhouse gases while making a rice farmer happy.

This is a huge victory for sustainable rice farming, especially smallholder rice farmers of Asia.

This story starts in the 1990s, as I began to explore alternatives to traditional rice cultivation. I wanted to eliminate the ploughing, puddling, transplanting and flooding fields that has allowed rice farming to flourish around the world but also has made it burdensome.

I wondered whether there might be a better way, while I toiled to grow rice (unprofitably) by traditional methods.

On our 50-acre farm, we grow everything from vegetables to mangoes. We also raise fish and livestock, practice agroforestry, and participate in agrotourism. During the rainy season, we produce about 25 tons of paddy rice, which can be milled into the white and brown rice that most consumers know.

It’s a major crop for us—and a staple crop for millions of other farmers, especially in the developing world.

The SRT offers a new way to grow rice. Instead of ploughing and puddling, it focuses on soil health by leaving the roots of previous crops in the ground rather than ripping them out. A safe herbicide helps turn the dying root mass into food for beneficial microbes. This biodiversity improves the richness of the soil, making it more fertile for future crops.

When I tried SRT, my goal was simply to grow more food and use fewer resources.

Then the black ibis birds arrived.

They were attracted by the earthworms, which were everywhere, thriving in the soil we had protected with SRT.

Their abundance signaled the presence of oxygen-rich, aerobic sub-soil conditions. We discovered a study from Yokohama National University in Japan. It showed that the earthworms play a critical role in reducing methane emissions.

Contrary to popular belief, methane emissions in agriculture are not primarily the result of fertilizer or crop-protection products. The real culprits are bacteria that grow in oxygen-deprived conditions and trapped water.

Earthworms, however, discourage these bacteria. As they burrow through the soil, they create natural pathways for air and water to penetrate the root zone. Working in conjunction with SRT, they can cut methane emissions in rice fields to almost nothing.

We proved it last month, when we took a biogas methane analyzer into our rice fields to search for methane. As this video shows, SRT slashed methane emissions to just a fraction of the levels associated with traditional methods of rice cultivation. (We report our findings in greater detail here .)

This rice crop test showcases SRT as a powerful tool in the fight against climate change.

There is additional good news. I adopted SRT on my own, without a directive from my government or an altruistic motive. I was just looking for a better way to grow rice—and I expect it to raise my productivity by as much as 50 percent. That’s the experience of farmers who have adopted SRT for cotton, corn, soybeans, pulses, millets, and more.

The reduction in methane emissions is an important byproduct. It’s now becoming an integrated part of our farming system, driven by a simple desire to make farming more sustainable.

In other words, nobody is forcing me to take up SRT. I’m choosing it on my own so that I can be a better farmer—and it turns out to have a significant and helpful side effect.

This is a potent example of what can happen if we treat farmers as partners rather than enemies in the fight against climate change.

My next task is to publicize this important finding. I’ll encourage rice farmers in India and elsewhere to learn about SRT and introduce it in their fields. Working with my partners in the Global Farmer Network , I’ve already started conversations with farmers in Japan, Nigeria, Thailand, and Vietnam.

Farmers are innovators who adapt to their settings and circumstances. We’ll change the world for the better if we can enjoy access to the best ideas and technology.

For me, it started with black ibis birds enjoying access to my farm.

Chandrashekhar (Shekhar) Bhadsavle grows rice, millets, pulses, sweetcorn, vegetables, peanuts and fruits like mango, sapota, coconut and more on an integrated family farm in the district of Raigad, Maharashtra State, India. The farm, Saguna Baug, is an agritourism pioneer in India. Shekhar is a member of the Global Farmer Network. www.globalfarmernetwork.org

Recognizing the Triumph of Science in Space and Agriculture

Sun, 27 Aug 2023 13:00:00 GMT

By V. Ravichandran: Poongulam Village, Tamil Nadu, India

India’s successful lunar landing this week is a proud moment for our country and a pivotal, positive moment for our farmers.

It offers important proof how far India has come and points to what we may yet attain—both in the heavens above and here on earth.

I remember the Apollo 11 moon landing in 1969. How can anyone forget such a great moment? Neil Armstrong’s quote still reverberates in my mind: “One small step for a man, one giant leap for mankind.”

Many people around the world watched the event on their televisions, but not me. Those days, there were no televisions in India. We were listening to the status of the Apollo 11 space mission through radio news.

The launch of Chandrayaan-3 last month, by contrast, was televised throughout our country on all the channels as well as streamed on the internet. Millions of people are in awe of the technology behind the spacecraft and full of patriotic pride about India’s accomplishment.

We’ve launched satellites for years, of course. A generation ago, the Indian Space Research Organization put up the IRS-1C, the world’s most advanced remote sensing satellite with a panchromatic camera (PAN) that sends back pictures of the earth. These imaging capabilities help predict the weather pattern, get precise guidance on where it would rain, provide instant communication and entertainment and make available a wide range of knowledge. Farmers use its data on soil profiles, likelihood of pest and disease, groundwater availability, and more.

India is now just the fourth country to place a spacecraft on the surface of the moon, along with the United States, Russia, and China—and we did it on the moon’s south pole, which no other country has managed.

Putting a vehicle on the moon is hard. An Indian lander crashed four years ago. Just last weekend, a Russian effort failed.

“Whatever the mind can conceive and believe, it can achieve,” said Napoleon Hill .

His words are as true for spacefaring as they are for farming.

When Armstrong stepped onto another world, nobody could conceive or believe that one day India would follow him there with its own technology. We were in the middle of perhaps the greatest food-security challenge in human history, trying to feed our hungry people.

As Americans made for the moon in the 1960s, India embarked on its own moonshot—a different giant leap forward for mankind.

It took a massive effort of science and technology to tackle an enormous problem, which is that India and many other developing countries failed to grow enough food. At that time, India was not able to produce enough food to feed our own population, supplying only about half of its nutritional need We had to import the rest.

We also knew that we could do much better.

We still import a lot of food, especially pulses and cooking oil. Yet now we’re full participants in a vigorous system of international trade, exporting more agricultural goods than we import, with rice, sugar, wheat, spices, and meat leading the way. Last year, the value of our exports topped $50 billion, the highest in history.

Getting here was a triumph of science and technology, in what today we call the Green Revolution .

Led by Norman Borlaug of the United States as well as India’s own M.S. Swaminathan and C. Subramaniam , the Green Revolution connected farmers to innovators. Together, they transformed agriculture with new high-yield varieties of rice and wheat and modern mechanization, irrigation, and storage. Better access to fertilizer and outstanding crop-protection products also were essential.

It was a global effort, improving food security everywhere, but its most significant feats were in India. Dr. Borlaug won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1970, the year after the Apollo 11 mission. In 1987, during the era of the space shuttles, Dr. Swaminathan received the first World Food Prize .

Earlier this year, India became the world’s most populous nation , with more people than China. Partly because of this, we continue to face food challenges. Millions of my fellow citizens fail to receive proper nutrition.

What we need is a Green Revolution for the 21st century—a Gene Revolution that harnesses the power of biotechnology to grow the best crops in the world.

This revolution is well underway, and its elements include everything from GMOs we plant in the ground to precision agriculture that is powered by GPS satellites in space.

Unfortunately, India’s political leaders have resisted many aspects of this new revolution, especially with the gene technologies that continue to improve seeds, making them at once more robust and better able to resist pests, weeds, disease, drought, and more.

Perhaps the success of Chandrayaan-3 will inspire a reconsideration. Without the Green Revolution in the earliest days of the space age, my country wouldn’t have a space program today. You can’t think well, sleep well, or progress well if you don’t dine well.

If India returns to our legacy of agricultural achievement, imagine what we will do in the future, on earth and among the stars.

Mr. V Ravichandran owns a 60-acre farm at Poongulam Village in Tamil Nadu, India where he grows rice, sugar cane, cotton and pulses (small grains). Mr. Ravichandran is a member of the Global Farmer Network, 2013 recipient of the Kleckner Award and served on the World Economic Forum New Vision for Agriculture Transformational Leaders Network. www.globalfarmernetwork.org

World’s Second-Largest Wheat Producer India Announces Partial Wheat Export Ban

Mon, 16 May 2022 20:14:28 GMT

The government of India on Saturday announced policies to manage overall food security of the country and support neighboring and vulnerable countries. The world’s second-biggest wheat grower mostly prohibited exports, saying that the nation’s food security is under threat.

Exports will still be allowed to countries that require wheat for food security needs and based on the requests of their governments, India’s Directorate General of Foreign Trade said in a notification dated May 13. All other new shipments will be banned with immediate effect. Link for details.

The ban has been imposed to divert wheat supplies to the needy and vulnerable people, Commerce Secretary B.V.R. Subrahmanyam said. Shipments with irrevocable letters of credit that have already been issued will still be allowed, according to a notification. India is likely to sell 1.1 million tons of wheat in May, he added. Indian traders have so far contracted to export 4.5 million tons of wheat in 2022-23, according to the food ministry. The nation shipped 1.46 million tons of wheat and 95,167 tons of wheat flour in April, it said. The country previously targeted to export a record 10 million tons in 2022-23.

Local prices of wheat have risen sharply as India has stepped up exports of the cereal following a major rally in global rates in the wake of the Russia/Ukraine conflict and as exporters sped up shipments, anticipating curbs by the government.

The wheat crop was damaged during India’s hottest March on record, causing yields to potentially slump by as much as 50% in some pockets of the country. The Indian government recently lowered its wheat production estimate by 5.7% to 105 million metric tons for the crop year ending June. The government had earlier projected wheat production at a record of about 111 million tons, which would have made it the sixth season in a row to produce a surplus. India produced nearly 110 million tons of wheat in the previous crop year.

In an online briefing, RBI governor Shaktikanta Das said inflation pressures are becoming more acute, particularly on food. Retail prices for wheat rise around 7% from a year earlier. And flour made from the grain traded rose 8% from last year, according to government data.

For details on how India’s export ban is impacting the markets, listen to Joe Vaclavik’s commentary .

BREAKING: New Market for U.S. Pork Opens in India

Mon, 10 Jan 2022 21:48:45 GMT

India has agreed to allow imports of U.S. pork and pork products into its country. The U.S. Trade Representative and USDA Secretary made the announcement jointly on Monday. The U.S. Trade Representative’s office says the news follows the successful revitalization of the U.S.-India Trade Policy Forum which was held in New Delhi in November.

At that time Ambassador Katherine Tai raised the importance of access for U.S. pork with Indian Minister of Commerce Piyush Gyal.

The U.S. Trade Representative said the following in a news release: “India’s agreement to allow U.S. pork imports for the first time is great news for U.S. producers and for Indian consumers,” said Ambassador Tai. “We will continue working to strengthen the U.S.-India trade relationship and I appreciate Minister Goyal’s efforts to facilitate this important development.”

“This new opportunity marks the culmination of nearly two decades of work to gain market access for U.S. pork to India – and it signals positive movement in U.S.-India trade relations,” said USDA Secretary Tom Vilsack. “We will continue working with the Indian government to ensure that the U.S. pork industry can begin shipping its high-quality products to consumers as soon as possible.”

The U.S. Trade Representative says in 2020, the U.S. was the world’s third-largest pork producer and second-largest exporter, with global sales of pork and pork products valued at $7.7 billion. In fiscal year 2021, the United States exported more than $1.6 billion of agricultural products to India.

Technology Solves India’s Stubble Burning Problem

Sun, 21 Nov 2021 13:00:00 GMT

By Malwinder Singh Malhi: Ludhiana, Punjab, India

India is gasping for breath—and farmers are receiving an unfair amount of the blame.

The Associated Press recently painted a picture of the problem in New Delhi: “Sky obscured by thick, gray smog. Monuments and high-rise buildings swallowed by a blanket of haze. People are struggling to breathe.”

The air quality in our capital city is so poor that the government has ordered schools and construction sites to shut down. Workers in public offices are told to stay home. Harsher lockdowns could arrive soon.

The cause of this poor air quality, according to many news accounts, is agriculture—and in particular, the practice of farmers who set fire to their crop stubble.

“A vocal minority of rich farmers from one state is burning the lungs of northern India,” complains a newspaper columnist.

This blaming of farmers has gotten out of hand—and many people are starting to notice. “Now it has become a fashion to bash the farmers,” said Surya Kant , a justice on India’s Supreme Court.

It’s time to set the record straight on Indian farmers and stubble burning. We must go beyond the finger pointing and propose constructive solutions.

I’m a third-generation farmer in Punjab, where I grow rice, wheat, potatoes, and other crops. As with so many people in northern India, we suffer from poor air quality in my state.

I don’t burn stubble, but I understand why many farmers do. The time between harvesting rice and sowing wheat is short. Farmers must move from crop to crop quickly. One of the fastest and most efficient ways to prepare a rice paddy for a wheat planting is to burn away the residue left over from a rice harvest.

When many farmers do this at the same time, their fires harm air quality. It happens every year, and every year people grumble about farmers.

I’m happy to admit that stubble burning is a problem. But we must keep things in perspective so constructive and effective solutions to India’s poor air quality can be found.

It turns out that stubble burning accounts for only 4 percent of New Delhi’s air pollution. When this fact recently appeared in an affidavit to the Supreme Court, Justice D.Y. Chandrachud reacted with surprise: “The cat is out of the bag,” he said. “We are targeting something which is totally insignificant.”

The biggest polluters have nothing to do with agriculture. Factory smokestacks, power generators, and vehicle tailpipes produce the vast majority of India’s smog. Even firecrackers play a part. Lighting them is a popular pastime in New Delhi.

Farmers have become an easy target. The critics take aim at them, distract us from the real problem and prevent us from thinking about possible solutions.

It is foolish to expect stubble burning to disappear without focusing on options for the farmers to use. There is an opportunity for the government, farmers and universities to work together to provide Information that will support adoption of new technologies which have the potential to help farmers shift away from this method.

Rather than shout at farmers for burning stubble, we should persuade them to consider alternatives, so they can reduce their 4-percent contribution to India’s air-quality dilemma.

Enterprising farmers can turn crop stubble into cattle feed, biomass energy, compost, packing material, fuel, paper, and more. In rural areas, it can become a roofing material. It even can help with mushroom cultivation.

Farmers also can take up a direct-seeding technique that I’ve used on my farm for several years. Instead of transplanting seedlings from the nursery, we establish our rice crop from seeds sown directly in the field. With a tractor, we drill seeds directly into the soil.

When the rice is ready to harvest, we use an implement called the “happy seeder” that lifts and cuts the paddy straw and sows the wheat seed at the same time. The cut straw becomes a mulch that not only helps the wheat to grow but protects the organic qualities of the soil, such as the helpful micro-organisms and insects that keep our fields fertile and fend off harmful pests.

We don’t need to burn anything.

The benefits of adopting this technology are many. We save time. We save fuel and labor costs. The process helps us control weeds. When stubble is burned, important nutrients are lost from the soil. With the Happy Seeder, we are able to keep those nutrients for the benefit of the next crop.

This is the way forward for India and its farmers: encouragement and innovation, rather than spitefulness and restriction.

I look forward to the day when Indians can enjoy cleaner air—and also a time when we regard farmers as partners who have a stake in helping us solve problems.

Malwinder Singh Malhi is a third-generation farmer growing rice, wheat, potatoes, peas, mustard and fodder crops of oats and rye grass on a 25-acre family farm in Punjab state, India. Malwinder is a member of the Global Farmer Network. www.globalfarmernetwork.org

First Thing Today: Rainfall in Some Parts of Texas Could Top 50 Inches by Week's End

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 17:48:28 GMT

Good morning!

More pressure overnight... Despite the lack of an expected uptick in corn crop condition ratings, corn futures faced followthrough selling overnight that took prices to new contract lows. The market is down 2 cents as of 6:30 a.m. CT. Soybean futures are trading near session lows with losses of 4 to 6 cents. Wheat futures are down 2 to 4 cents across all three flavors. The U.S. dollar index is again posting solid losses, while crude oil futures are slightly lower.

PF CCI: Corn ratings slip as bean ratings rise... When USDA’s crop ratings are plugged into the weighted Pro Farmer Crop Condition Index (0 to 500 point scale, with 500 being perfect), the corn crop slipped nearly a point to 358.96 points, which is down 28.21 points from year-ago. On the other hand, soybean condition ratings climbed 2.17 points to 351.31 points, signaling last week’s rains and cool temps benefited the crop. The crop is rated nearly 24 points under year-ago levels. Get details here .

Cordonnier raises corn and soybean yield pegs... Crop Consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised his national average U.S. corn yield estimate by 1 bu. to 166 bu. per acre, resulting in a crop peg of 13.85 billion bushels. He has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. He explains that August weather stabilized the crop, though it “would have been better if the temperatures had been a little warmer.” The cool temps have slowed development. Cordonnier also raised his soybean yield estimate by half a bushel to 48 bu. per acre, and again he has a neutral to slightly higher bias going forward. This puts his bean crop peg at 4.25 billion bushels. He points out the Corn Belt has seen a “reversal of fortunes,” with the western Belt now receiving rainfall and eastern states turning dry.

North Korea fires ballistic missile over Japan... North Korea launched a missile toward the northern end of Japan, the Japanese government announced Monday afternoon. It was an aggressive step the country has rarely taken in the past 20 years and which observers said will undermine U.S. efforts to bring the nuclear aspirant to the negotiating table. The test was the first North Korean missile to fly over Japan’s main islands since 2009, and is the 18th missile test this year by Pyongyang. The launch took place as the U.S. and South Korea are conducting annual joint military drills. Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said that he had spoken with President Donald Trump and that the two countries’ stances “are completely matched.”

Rainfall totals in some parts of southeast Texas could top 50 inches by week’s end... Officials continue to grapple with the effects of Harvey, one of the most destructive storms in U.S. history. Louisiana is Harvey’s next target. “The flood threat is spreading farther east into Louisiana,” the National Hurricane Center says. “Additional rainfall amounts of 15 to 25 inches are expected in southwestern Louisiana, with rainfall amounts of 5 to 15 inches expected in south-central Louisiana and 5 to 10 inches in southeastern Louisiana.”

Texas cotton industry may lose $150 million from Harvey: Commissioner... While the majority of Texas’s cotton crop was harvested along the southern Texas coast, modules storing crops in fields have “pretty much been destroyed” by Hurricane Harvey, Sid Miller, state’s agriculture commissioner, says in a telephone interview with Bloomberg. “If they didn’t have the cotton to the gin, they probably lost it, even though it had been harvested.” The best estimate to date is around $150 million damage in the coastal plains region, he said.

Unica: Brazilian mills putting a bit more focus on ethanol production... Brazilian mills increased the amount of sugarcane they process into ethanol during the first half of August, according to data from the cane industry group Unica. Mills in Brazil’s center-south region earmarked 50.04% of cane in the first half of August to sugar production, the smallest share in the last two months, according to reports. Taxation changes are making hydrous ethanol (used in flex fuel vehicles) more competitive with gasoline. This comes as Brazil has decided to put import duties on ethanol beyond a level of 600 million liters (159 million gallons).

India takes steps to limit risk of sugar price hikes during upcoming festive season... In an attempt to prevent price spikes ahead of the coming festive season, India put inventory limits in place for sugar mills. They won’t be allowed to hold more than 21% of their production in stock by the end of month, and they have to lower stock levels to 8% of production by the end of October, the country’s food minister detailed via Twitter. Since India’s sugar production for 2016-17 is expected to fall short of consumption levels, there is concern that the world’s No. 1 sugar consumer could run into shortages for the coming festive season. Earlier this month, India announced it would allow an additional 200,000 MT of duty-free sugar imports.

Delay on lumber duty decision... The U.S. Department of Commerce will postpone its final determination for anti-dumping and countervailing duties on Canadian softwood lumber until Nov. 14, the department said. The decision was initially expected the first week of September, but the two nations remain at an impasse in the lengthy dispute. “I remain hopeful that we can reach a negotiated solution that satisfies the concerns of all parties,” Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross said in a statement. “This extension could provide the time needed to address the complex issues at hand and to reach an equitable and durable suspension agreement.” Tensions escalated in April when the Trump administration imposed preliminary countervailing duties of as much as 24% on Canadian imports. Additional duties of as much as 7.7% followed in June.

Futures trading in line with to above the cash market for a change... Cattle futures surged to start the week, but by the close the live cattle market had backed well off its highs. This signals followthrough buying could be limited today, especially with deferred months already at a premium to last week’s cash cattle trade, which according to USDA took place at a weighted average price of $106.71. Showlist estimates are down a net 8,000 head this week, which could boost feedlots’ bargaining power.

Product market in focus for lean hogs... Pork movement has been light of late and that trend continued to start the week, with just 226.28 loads changing hands, despite a 44-cent drop in the pork cutout value. As the unofficial end of summer grilling season nears, traders are hopeful the product market will get a as retailers prep for fall features. Meanwhile, this week’s kill got off to a strong start.

Overnight demand news... Jordan tendered to buy 100,00 MT of animal feed barley from optional origins. Egypt tendered to buy an unspecified amount of wheat from global suppliers.

Today’s reports:

2:00 p.m., Livestock & Meat Domestic Data -- ERS
2:00 p.m., Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade -- ERS