INPUTS

Diesel Prices Are Breaking Records Across Multiple States, And Relief May Not Come in 2026

Wed, 06 May 2026 12:53:35 GMT

On Tuesday, President Trump stated that high gasoline prices are a “very small price to pay” for the ongoing war with Iran, arguing they are necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He predicted prices will “come crashing down” once the war ends. But for farmers and ranchers, diesel prices have risen more than gas, putting a further strain on already high input costs for 2026.

Trump on Oil Prices:

I looked today, it's like at 102 and that's a very small price to pay pic.twitter.com/2V8LC93wFj
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2026

To start the week, diesel prices went on another run with the national average diesel price is just 20 cents away from reaching a new all-time high. And across the country, a growing number of states aren’t waiting to get there. About six states are already seeing the national average price of diesel reach record highs.

From the Great Lakes to the West Coast, roughly a half dozen states have already smashed previous records, as a late-April dip in prices quickly faded and a fresh surge took hold.

“Diesel now averaging about $5.65 a gallon nationally. That is only about 20 cents away from a new all-time record high,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy . “So even though we had that short-lived break, we’re right back knocking on the door of records again.”

That “break” didn’t last long. De Haan says even though diesel prices saw a bit of a respite for April, with even prices starting to trend down in mid-April, those prices re-accelerated in the last week.

New records for diesel in:
Michigan, $6.01
Illinois, $6.01
Wisconsin $5.67
(Indiana 0.2c/gal away), $6.03
(Ohio ~19c/gal away), $5.93 https://t.co/DV0387vvMR
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 5, 2026

Now, the rally is showing up in state-by-state records, especially in the Midwest.

“Looking at it state by state, Great Lakes states have seen some tremendous refining issues that have really caused prices to rise dramatically,” he says. “Michigan has now set a new all-time record high for diesel over $6. Indiana is just a few tenths of a penny away from setting a new all-time record. Illinois has set a new all-time record. Wisconsin has set a new all-time record.”

And it’s not just a regional story. States in the West were some of the first to not just see the highest prices, but now also hit record levels.

“Out on the West Coast, Arizona set a record a couple of weeks ago, and Washington state is at an all-time record,” he adds. “So there are probably about a half dozen or so states that have set new all-time records, and again, the national average itself is just 20 cents away.”

Perhaps the most telling shift, though, is there’s no longer a low-price refuge.

“No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon,” De Haan says. “Texas was the last holdout, and it now is above $5 per gallon. So across the board, $5 diesel is now essentially the floor, and in some areas, that’s actually the cheaper end of the spectrum.”

At the high end, prices are reaching extremes with California’s average diesel price now surpassing $8 per gallon.

Global Tensions Cloud Relief Outlook

With prices continuing to climb, farmers are looking for relief. What would it take to reverse course? That answer remains tied to global uncertainty.

“Relief may be a little bit elusive,” De Haan admits. “It really just depends on the daily developments in the situation between the U.S. and Iran—whether the Strait is open or not, or whether we’re in phases of escalation.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day.

“Nothing else matters to the oil market more than this waterway,” he emphasizes. “We’ve seen attacks that have pushed oil prices higher, which in turn pushes diesel wholesale prices up. You may get a little bit of day-to-day relief, but there really is no ‘coast is clear’ until there’s some sort of definitive resolution.”

And even then, he says a turnaround won’t happen overnight.

“If there is a definitive signal to the market, if the Strait reopens and both sides are aligned, prices could start falling within 48 hours,” De Haan explained. “But the rate of decline is likely to slow after that initial drop.”

Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Through 2026

Not only is the rate of decline projected to be slow, but De Haan says diesel prices aren’t likely to drop back to pre-war levels by the end of the year.

“Roughly half of the increase we’ve seen over the last couple of months could come down within the first few months of positive news,” he said. “But the other half could take many more months. We may not get back to pre-conflict diesel prices until late this year—or even into 2027.”

For agriculture, that prolonged stretch of elevated prices carries real consequences.

“When you look at what comes out of a barrel of oil, diesel only makes up about 25%,” De Haan explained. “Gasoline is a larger portion, so it’s been less impacted. Jet fuel, which is an even smaller share, has been hit the hardest. So it’s almost inverse to how much is produced.”

Why Diesel Is Climbing Faster Than Gasoline

If it feels like diesel prices are rising faster and hitting harder than gasoline, there’s a reason rooted in how a barrel of oil gets used.

“Diesel has seen more of the sticker shock compared to gasoline,” says De Haan. “And a lot of that comes down to what comes out of a barrel of oil.”

Not all fuels are created equally in supply. Gasoline makes up the largest share of a refined barrel, while diesel represents a smaller slice, making it more vulnerable when supply is disrupted.

“Gasoline is the top product flowing out of a barrel of oil, so it’s been the least impacted,” De Haan explains. “Diesel, on the other hand, only accounts for about 25% of a barrel, so it’s been more impacted when there are supply issues.”

That imbalance becomes even clearer when looking across the full spectrum of refined fuels.

“The most significant impact has actually been to jet fuel, which is only about 9% of a barrel,” he adds. “So if you look at it inversely—the smaller the share of the barrel, the bigger the impact we’re seeing right now.”

For agriculture, that dynamic matters more than most sectors.

Diesel isn’t optional on the farm. It’s essential. From planting to harvest, it powers tractors, trucks and the supply chain that moves commodities across the country.

“Diesel is the fuel that drives agriculture,” De Haan say. “And that’s why these price increases are so impactful, not just at the pump, but all the way through the economy.”

And while prices are already elevated, the full effect is still working its way downstream.

“Consumers really haven’t even seen the full onset of some of these higher prices yet,” he adds. “That’s going to continue to trickle through in the weeks ahead.”

Demand Holding...for Now

Even with these high prices, so far, demand hasn’t shown many signs of slowing.

“We have not seen much meaningful decrease in demand yet,” De Haan says. “We’ve seen very little, if any, diesel demand destruction so far, which tells you the economy is essentially preparing to pay these prices because it still needs the fuel.”

But there are warning signs ahead.

“If diesel nationally hits $6 a gallon, that’s likely when we start to see consumption slow,” he says. “For gasoline, that number is about $5 a gallon. We’re getting very close to those thresholds.”

Until then, the pressure continues to mount. And for farmers heading deeper into the growing season, that pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

From Football to Farming, 2026 is a Season of Ups and Downs

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 02:30:42 GMT

An early start to planting season doesn’t mean Cody White’s worries are out of the woods in DeWitt County, Ill. On Monday, 1.5" to 5" of rain as well as hail, straight-line winds and tornadoes hit his area. This year, White’s beans were planted earlier than ever before, April 14, which means he expects he’ll have to replant.

“We were off to almost a picture-perfect start here,” he says. “That has now been flipped on its head.”

However, the first-generation farmer is accustomed to changing directions. White’s NFL career is helping him make the game-time decision to navigate the highs and lows of the 2026 season.

From NFL to the Farm

After a standout collegiate career at Illinois State University, where he started as tight end and later moved to the offensive line, White signed with the Houston Texans in 2012 as an undrafted free agent. White’s third season was looking up when he ruptured his Achilles tendon.

(Cody White)

“That shut my year down. I had to have it restructured, repaired, tried to come back. It wasn’t the same. It wasn’t enough time,” he says. “I fought, fought, fought, and then finally there comes a day when football is done with you, and that’s just when my time was.”

The shift in 2016 forced him to pivot toward a new profession. Today, White farms with his father-in-law and sells seed for Wyffels Hybrids. He notes that the transition from the football field was more natural than some might expect.

“Football and farming — there’s a lot of similarities,” White says. “They both have an offseason, the planning, the game planning, executing that plan and knowing when to change it.”

Adjusting the Game Plan

Changing the game plan is exactly what White has had to do over the past three years. This growing season, expensive fertilizer and rising diesel prices are the primary problems he is trying to tackle.

While White secured his fertilizer for this year, he admits that diesel costs are at the top of his mind.

“I wish I would have booked our spring use back in December or January,” White says. “It was sub-$3 then. It’s one of those things that are out of your control, right? You just kind of control what you can control.”

To manage the squeeze, White says they are cutting back where possible. But he says there is only so much he can trim before it impacts his crops.

Concerns Over Market Concentration

White is keeping a close eye on the numerous dynamics in the fertilizer industry. He’s glad to see members of the president’s Cabinet meeting with industry leaders to discuss rising costs.

“I’m all for capitalism, but at some point, when there are three companies running everything, they’re able to dictate,” White explains. “We watch commodity prices go up, and now fertilizer prices are up. We’re just trading dollars constantly.”

In a game of pennies, or inches, White thinks most farmers will find a way to make the numbers work for the remainder of this year. However, he thinks 2027 could prove tough for many farmers.

“Football is a game of ups and downs,” White says. “You’re never too down; you’re never too up. That’s kind of the world we’re living in right now.”

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Crop Progress Throughout the Midwest

According to the latest USDA reports, approximately one-quarter of the U.S. corn and soybean crops are now in the ground. Despite a pattern of spring storms moving across the Midwest, farmers are finding windows of opportunity to advance the 2024 planting season.

Northwest Iowa: Emergence Underway

In Northwest Iowa, Matt McCarthy is seeing significant progress. McCarthy has wrapped up corn planting and is roughly 75% finished with his soybeans. He expects to finish soybean planting by the end of the week. Progress on McCarthy’s farm is currently ahead of last year’s pace, largely because recent rains have missed his location.

“Yesterday [the crop] just was spiking through, and then with this little bit of rain really softened the top, and it’s coming up pretty nice,” McCarthy says. “It’s cold, probably 53 degrees right now, but you can row it. Those fields planted on the 14th and even some corn on the 17th are spiking through.”

Minnesota and Northeast Iowa: Rain and Cold Slow Momentum

Near Mankato, Minn., Chris Schenk reports that his soybean planting was completed last Saturday. He managed to seed more than 200 acres of corn before being sidelined by three-quarters of an inch of rain on Monday. While Schenk doesn’t expect to return to the field until early next week, he notes that roughly 60% of farmers in his area have already finished.

Farther south in Cresco, Iowa, Darrick Barnikle is still waiting for the right window. While fertilizer applications are nearly complete, planting has not yet begun on his farm. Cool temperatures and scattered showers have kept planters in the shed for most growers in the area, with Barnikle estimating only 5% of local corn and soybeans are planted. With a drier forecast ahead, activity is expected to ramp up midweek, though growers remain cautious of a forecasted dip to 32°F Friday night.

Southwest Iowa and Beyond: Navigating Variable Rains

In Percival, Iowa, Pat Sheldon reports that weekend rainfall was highly variable. Despite the scattered totals, planting progress remains strong in his area. Sheldon estimates that 75% of the corn and 20% of the soybeans are already in the ground, with planters expected to roll again later this week.

Meanwhile, for Chris Harrell, recent rains will likely keep fieldwork on pause for most of the week. Harrell currently has about two-thirds of his soybeans planted, but corn progress sits at roughly 20%. He hopes to return to the field by the weekend.

Trump Admin to Roll Out Major Fertilizer Plan This Week, Accelerate U.S. Production Push

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 16:36:27 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says the Trump administration will unveil a sweeping set of fertilizer initiatives this week, warning that surging input costs are putting intense pressure on American farmers. Speaking at a Missouri farm on Friday, Rollins told those in attendance that fertilizer has become an issue of national security, which is why she says this week’s announcement will be broader than just USDA, also including EPA, Department of Energy, Department of Commerce and Department of the Interior.

While at GR Farms in Higginsville, Mo., on Friday to roll out an announcement on the Supplemental Disaster Relief Program (SDRP) top-up payments, Rollins described the Trump administration’s upcoming announcement on fertilizer as a large-scale investment initiative. She says while she hoped to roll out the plan while in Missouri, the administration is still finalizing the size of the funding package.

Rollins says the plan will address both immediate actions to stabilize fertilizer prices and a longer-term roadmap aimed at ensuring affordable, domestically produced supply for U.S. farmers.

Washington analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the plan will likely need to include a mix of financial and policy tools, such as grants, tax incentives, loan guarantees outside of existing USDA programs and greater consistency in U.S. trade policy, while noting imports will still play a role, particularly for key nutrients like potash sourced from Canada.

Short-Term Fertilizer Price Pain

During her comments Friday, Rollins highlighted how quickly fertilizer prices have increased since the conflict started in Iran, outlining the additional strain it is placing on producers.

“We know that urea prices have gone up 50% over the last month. Ammonia is up 30% or more,” she said, adding that “our farmers are feeling that pinch.”

Rollins also told the crowd fertilizer has been a longer-term challenge, even before the situation in Iran caused the latest price spike.

“To be clear, this has been a problem for years. The actual numbers are lower, believe it or not, than they were even in 2022,” she says. “But nevertheless, that jump in prices overnight, we have to address.”

Framing the issue as more than just an economic challenge and one that is a matter of national security after decades of offshoring fertilizer production, Rollins says the administration views the issue as part of a broader structural problem within the fertilizer industry.

“The loss of competition in the fertilizer industry has obviously led to higher fertilizer costs over time,” she says. “When combined with what’s happening overseas with the current geopolitical issues facing our world, certainly we have come to a crossroads that requires immediate action. This is indeed a matter of national security, and we are working to tackle it head on.”

Focus on Domestic Fertilizer Production

While Rollins didn’t give details, she hinted the centerpiece of this week’s announcement will be a major push to reshore fertilizer production, backed by federal investment to accomplish that. Working with Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick, she says the administration is preparing to direct significant funding toward building new fertilizer plants across the country, while also supporting existing projects.

“I have asked Howard to do, and his team to do, and what we’re doing in partnership is to identify a significant number ... that we can deploy into building out fertilizer plants in America,” she says.

Rollins emphasizes cutting regulatory delays will be critical to making that plan work. She says projects are already being identified nationwide, but permitting delays remain a major obstacle — with the goal of getting that process down to months versus the current years it takes.

“We’ve already begun to identify all over the country. Some are under production. How do we move them along more quickly? Some are in the permitting bureaucracy, which sometimes takes years to get through permitting,” she says. “Our goal is to, instead of years, to get to permitting in a matter of weeks, or perhaps months, so that even in one year, two years and three years, we will have facilities up and running that we will never have had that opportunity or option before.”

United States’ Energy Advantage for Nitrogen Fertilizer

Rollins also points to domestic energy resources as a key factor in expanding fertilizer output, particularly for nitrogen production.

“We became, in a matter of just a short period of time, a net exporter of LNG versus importer, meaning we were producing our own energy in America, so much so that we no longer had to rely on other countries,” she says. “The reason that is important is, as our farmers are facing these exponential nitrogen fertilizer costs, we now have the resources in America. We just have to build the facilities, the manufacturing facilities, to turn that LNG into nitrogen. So this is going to happen quicker than you would normally expect, I think because of the pieces of the puzzle that have already been put into place.”

In the meantime, Rollins says the administration is continuing short-term efforts to improve supply availability and reduce costs.

While the longer-term strategy ramps up, she says the administration is continuing short-term interventions to ease pressure on farmers. These include:

Extending a waiver of the Jones Act
Opening new import channels
Working and meeting with industry/fertilizer companies

Highlighting cooperation with domestic producers, she pointed to CF Industries as an example.

“They have said, in order to protect our farmers, we are going to stop maintenance. We are going look at holding our prices steady,” she says.

She also points to ongoing coordination with the Department of Justice.

“Last year, we signed a joint agreement, USDA did, with the Department of Justice, ensuring that farmers have access to competitive and affordable inputs,” she says. “Looking into the activities of our fertilizer companies and what has happened over the last few years, but with a new eye on potential price gouging right now.”

Long-Term Goal: Reduce Foreign Dependence

Looking longer term, Rollins says the administration is focused on reversing decades of reliance on foreign suppliers.

“America has offshored for far too long, far too much of our fertilizer production, leaving us dangerously reliant on Russia and China,” she says. “Changing that long-standing industry that is reliant on global markets won’t happen overnight,” she says. “But working with our farmers and across industry and government, we will find ways to make fertilizer that we can do here in America and make sure it is a price that our great farmers can afford.”

At the same time, the administration is increasing scrutiny of fertilizer markets. Rollins noted ongoing coordination with the Department of Justice, saying officials are taking “a new eye on potential price gouging right now.”

Ultimately, she framed this week’s announcement as the beginning of a broader shift away from foreign dependence.

Rollins says additional details, including funding levels and project specifics, will be included in next week’s announcement.

“We’re at a crossroads that requires immediate action,” she says.

Watch Rollins’ full press conference here:

Koch Launches Centuro A-PRO: Reducing Nitrogen Stabilizer Use Rates by 67%

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 19:22:35 GMT

Koch Agronomic Services expands its nitrogen stabilizer portfolio with Centuro A-Pro designed to stabilize anhydrous ammonia and UAN ensuring nitrogen stays in the ammonium form longer.

As Cody Hornaday, technical agronomist with Koch Agronomic Services, explains the development of Centuro A-Pro was rooted in customer feedback for a more concentrated formula that offers enhanced operational efficiency.

“Koch is big on customer voice,” he says. “We took feedback on Centuro, and basically concentrated the product down to a higher concentration of active ingredient. Therefore, we could then lower the use rate. We now have launched Centuro A-PRO.”

Representing approximately a 67% reduction in the volume of product handled, the lower use rate of Centuro A-Pro is 1.61 gallons per ton of anhydrous ammonia compared to 5 gallons per ton for the original Centuro formulation.

“It is a concentrated formulation of the original Centuro, we are maintaining the same amount of active ingredient per ton of nitrogen. Therefore we get a lower use rate, and we get much more efficiency by handling less volume,” he says. “You still get the same great nitrogen stabilization below ground against denitrification and leaching, but we handle a whole lot less product and get the same effect.”

For retailers, this means operational efficiency realized in less storage needed and improved inventory management due to the lower volume. And for farmers, this equates to faster turnaround times when filling tanks, allowing for more efficient application during tight application windows.

“It’s a win-win for retailers and growers alike,” Hornaday says.

KAS says early trials in corn have shown up to an 18 bu/ac increase versus untreated anhydrous ammonia applications at an application rate of 180 pounds of nitrogen per acre. The company plans to have its full product launch for the fall 2026 application season.

Strategic Fit in the Koch Portfolio

“Nitrogen stabilizers are a tool to ensure that a grower is using all of that nitrogen that they are applying,” Hornaday says. “We want to ensure that Mother Nature doesn’t take away any of that through volatilization or denitrification or leaching, because we know that it’s one of the most expensive inputs that a grower’s going to use for a corn crop.”

He continues, “We’re just looking at trying to be as efficient with the pounds that we’re putting on as we can. Losing any of the money that you put out on a crop that’s already at a tight margin is certainly not what anybody wants to do.”

Continued product development for nitrogen stabilizers underscores how the topic is important—and farmers seek to be efficient with the nitrogen they are buying and applying in any economic environment.

Here’s an outline of the KAS nitrogen stabilizer lineup:

Above-Ground Protection (Urease Inhibition):

Agrotain: The NBPT based product that KAS says set an industry standard for stabilization for urea and UAN.
Anvol: The current flagship product featuring the Duromide molecule, designed for a longer window of protection against volatilization.

Below-Ground Protection (Nitrification Inhibition):

Centuro (Original): The established product for anhydrous ammonia and UAN stabilization.
Centuro A-PRO: The high-efficiency evolution of the below-ground portfolio, specifically targeting growers and retailers who prioritize speed and reduced product handling.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden Says High-Level Washington Meeting Puts Fertilizer Industry on the Spot

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:09:58 GMT

The fertilizer market has been a growing point of tension in agriculture for years, but USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says recent meetings in Washington marked a more direct and wide-ranging confrontation between federal officials and the companies that dominate input supply. Those discussions, he says, were not limited to USDA alone but included a broader slice of the administration’s economic leadership, signaling how central fertilizer costs have become to the national conversation on food production and inflation.

Vaden says cabinet-level officials from the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative were present, alongside USDA leadership and state agriculture commissioners from Iowa and Georgia. Fertilizer executives were also in the room, making the meeting a rare setting where policy makers, regulators and industry leaders sat together to address pricing, supply constraints and long-term market structure.

He says the purpose was not simply informational, but confrontational in the sense of putting real-world farm impacts directly in front of industry decision-makers.

“It was an opportunity for those other cabinet officials to hear from the fertilizer company executives,” Vaden says, “and for those fertilizer company executives to hear from the secretary and me, as well as our two state counterparts who joined, about the real harm that farmers are facing from uncertainty in the market and, equally as importantly, years of elevated prices.”

Vaden says what often gets lost outside agriculture is that the current fertilizer environment is not a short-term disruption, but the continuation of a multi-year pricing trend that has reshaped farm budgets.

“For people who don’t pay attention to ag every day like your listeners do, they may think this fertilizer thing came out of nowhere,” Vaden says. “But American farmers know that we’re on year five or more of elevated prices for fertilizer, and questions about adequate supply of all fertilizer types.”

He adds that the timing of the discussions is critical, as global geopolitical tensions are only adding pressure to already strained markets.

“So I see this as an opportunity now that the attention of everyone is focused on fertilizer, not just agriculture, to begin to solve the problem that has taken years to develop and that has been exacerbated by the current situation in the Middle East,” Vaden says. “So that we don’t find ourselves in another long-term question about fertilizer supply going forward.”

USDA Pushes Industry: Bring Projects Forward or Explain the Bottlenecks

As discussions continue with fertilizer companies, Vaden says USDA is shifting the conversation from general concern to specific accountability. Rather than broad discussions about market conditions, he says officials are now asking companies to identify concrete projects that could increase supply and to explain why those investments have not yet materialized.

This approach, he says, reflects a broader strategy inside the department to move beyond analysis and toward action, particularly in areas where supply constraints have persisted for years without meaningful change.

In meetings held both jointly and separately with industry leaders, Vaden says USDA has been consistent in its message to fertilizer companies.

“We are saying the same thing to everyone who comes before the department,” Vaden says. “Be a part of the solution, don’t be a part of the problem.”

He says that includes detailed questions about whether expansion projects are already in development but stalled due to permitting delays, regulatory barriers or capital constraints. In some cases, he says, USDA is asking companies to identify where federal or state action could realistically speed up timelines.

“We are asking them what projects they have in the pipeline that they can bring on board to create new fertilizer supplies, hopefully here domestically, but if necessary, near-shoring overseas,” Vaden says. “And are there steps that we can take to make those projects move faster? Are there permits that are held up? Are there states or localities that are holding up their expansions? Are there investments that they are looking for with regard to needing capital to be able to expand their production capacity?”

He adds the department is not approaching the issue passively, but actively pressing for answers.

“We’re asking as many questions as we are making declarative statements, and we’re trying to see what levers we can pull to get more supply on the market,” Vaden says.

Market Concentration at Center of USDA Concerns

Beyond supply timelines and permitting issues, Vaden says one of the core structural concerns in fertilizer markets is the level of consolidation, particularly in phosphate production where a small number of companies control a dominant share of supply.

He says that level of concentration raises fundamental questions about how prices are formed and whether farmers are receiving signals that reflect true market conditions.

With that in mind, Vaden says USDA is focusing heavily on competition and price discovery as part of its broader review of input markets.

“With one of our fertilizer markets, there are two companies that control 90% market share,” Vaden says. “Anybody, I don’t care whether it’s fertilizer or what any other commodity you want to talk about, if there are only two major players, how can anyone be sure that the price you are paying reflects actual market conditions?”

He says the issue is not simply about individual price spikes, but about whether enough competition exists to keep pricing behavior transparent and responsive.

“In order to have adequate price discovery in a market, you need multiple players,” Vaden says.

That concern, he adds, is one of the reasons fertilizer investigations already underway by federal agencies predate recent geopolitical disruptions and continue to expand.

Vaden Details Heated Meeting With Mosaic: “A Different Tune in My Conference Room”

Among the most pointed parts of Vaden’s interview are his comments about a recent face-to-face meeting with Mosaic, one of the most influential players in the phosphate fertilizer market. He says the discussion, held in his conference room just this week, was direct and, at times, uncomfortable, focusing heavily on production decisions, capacity investment and the company’s role in a highly concentrated global market.

Vaden says he challenged Mosaic on why additional production capacity has not been brought online in the United States over a long period of time, and what barriers the company believes are preventing expansion.

He says he left the meeting with clear expectations for follow-up information from the company, describing it as an assignment rather than a casual discussion.

“I gave them a homework assignment,” Vaden says. “I told them what I expected to see, and I hope that they will get back to me as soon as possible.”

But what stood out most to him, he says, was not just what was said in the room, but how it contrasted with the company’s public messaging.

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

In his view, there was a noticeable difference between internal discussions and external communications, particularly on social media, where fertilizer policy debates have increasingly played out in public.

“And I will say, without being able to go into details, when they were in my office, they were singing a slightly different tune than they were signing on Twitter responding to the president’s Truth Social message that you noted,” Vaden says.

He uses that contrast to underscore what he sees as a broader disconnect between industry messaging and the realities USDA believes farmers are facing.

“We need more supply, we need answers, your company hasn’t provided either of those two things,” Vaden says. “It’s about time that you did.”

Industry Responses, Trade Policy Pressure and the Mosaic Question

While Vaden applies pressure to Mosaic, he notes that not all fertilizer companies are taking the same stance on trade policy and tariffs. He points specifically to Nutrien, which he says has indicated support for removing certain trade enforcement measures.

“I was very happy after I met with the Nutrien CEO that they came out and announced we don’t need this CVD order anymore,” Vaden says.

By contrast, he says Mosaic’s position on countervailing duties and phosphate trade enforcement remains unresolved, and that broader policy decisions are now effectively waiting on the company’s response.

He characterizes the situation as fluid but heavily dependent on industry input.

“Right now the question is in Mosaic’s court, if you will,” Vaden says. “And we’re waiting for an answer from them.”

He adds that regulatory or executive action is unlikely to be taken in a vacuum while negotiations and responses are still unfolding.

“One thing that I know as a lawyer is that there’s a whole lot more possible if you have consent of the parties than if you don’t,” Vaden says. “With consent, nearly all things are possible.”

Investigations Expand as USDA Seeks Farmer-Reported Data

Alongside industry meetings, Vaden says USDA is working with the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission on ongoing fertilizer market investigations, with a particular focus on pricing behavior and market transparency.

He says one challenge is the nature of pricing information itself, which often reaches farmers through informal channels and can change quickly.

“We’re asking questions and waiting for answers, and we need farmers’ help as part of our question asking,” Vaden says.

He describes a pattern many farmers have reported directly to USDA, where fertilizer prices are quoted in a way that encourages immediate purchase rather than delayed buying.

“I know in my own family’s operation that you get phone calls, and those phone calls tell you ‘Here’s what the price is now, and if you wait, here’s what the price will be later,’” Vaden says. “And that later price is never lower than the price that it is now.”

To address that, he says USDA is working on a confidential reporting system designed to protect farmer identity while improving data quality for investigators.

“If they trust us with their information, if they trust us with the facts that they have, they’ll be able to remain anonymous,” Vaden says. “And the companies under investigation will not know who shared what data with us.”

“This Has Been Going On for Too Long”

Vaden closes by emphasizing that fertilizer prices and supply constraints are not a new challenge for agriculture, but an entrenched issue that has persisted through multiple years and market cycles.

He says the administration is trying to shift both short-term supply conditions and long-term structural dynamics at the same time, adding that USDA’s goal is not temporary relief, but sustained changes in supply, competition and pricing stability.

“We are focused on getting new supplies here now, and not just now, but next year and the year after that and the years after that,” Vaden says. “So that we can have guaranteed new supplies over the long term.”

Vaden’s Message to Farmers: “We’re Saying the Same Thing in Public and in Private”

At the end of the conversation, Vaden returned to what he described as the central audience for everything USDA is doing on fertilizer: farmers themselves. He acknowledged frustration is not just growing, but it has become a defining sentiment across much of farm country as input costs remain elevated and supply questions persist year after year.

He emphasized USDA’s posture is not different depending on the room or the audience, whether speaking with industry executives, other federal agencies, or producers themselves.

“I want farmers to know that when I am sitting with representatives of other cabinet departments or when I am sitting with big fertilizer CEOs, I am saying the same thing in private that you hear me saying in public,” Vaden says. “I do not change my tune. I may be slightly more polite, but I am equally as direct in terms of telling them what I think the situation is.”

Vaden says that directness is rooted in what he believes farmers are already experiencing on the ground, particularly when it comes to fertilizer pricing volatility and uncertainty in purchasing decisions. He says producers are not misreading the situation — they are responding to real, long-running pressures.

He also acknowledges the emotional toll on producers is part of the reality USDA is hearing more frequently.

“I especially communicate to them that farmers have gone from exasperation to anger with the situation that we have now,” Vaden says. “They are not wrong to be feeling those emotions because they understand that this is not a new situation.”

Looking ahead, Vaden says USDA’s goal is not just to address short-term pricing spikes, but to change the underlying conditions that have kept fertilizer costs elevated for years. That includes expanding supply, increasing competition and improving long-term stability in input markets.

“This is an issue that has bedeviled American agriculture for at least five years, and it is time that it stopped,” Vaden says.

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:51 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

Farmers and Congress Demand Action as Fertilizer Prices Spike

Fri, 27 Mar 2026 14:18:57 GMT

As temperatures rise across the Midwest and Delta, the familiar sound of spring planting is returning. From Missouri to Mississippi, planters are beginning to roll, signaling the start of another growing season.

But beneath that seasonal optimism lies a deepening financial strain for U.S. farmers, driven not just by high input costs overall, but by sharp increases in fertilizer and diesel prices that are reshaping planting decisions and profitability outlooks. The recent price surge is also fueling Congress to push for greater transparency into fertilizer pricing.

Lawmakers Push for Transparency and Answers

Just this week, Reps. Dusty Johnson (R-SD) and Brad Finstad (R-MN) introduced the bipartisan Fertilizer Transparency Act in the House with support from co-sponsors, including Angie Craig (D-MN). The legislation would require USDA to publish weekly fertilizer price reports, providing farmers with more timely and accurate market data.

The House legislation came a week after the Senate introduced similar legislation. The Senate Fertilizer Transparency Act of 2026 was introduced by a bipartisan group of lawmakers last week, led by Sen. John Thune (R‑SD) and Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D‑MN), with additional support from Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D‑WI) and Sen. Chuck Grassley (R‑IA). The Senate bill would also require USDA to collect and publish weekly fertilizer price data to give farmers clearer, more timely market information.

Meanwhile, Sen. Josh Hawley (R-MO) is calling for a federal investigation into recent fertilizer price spikes, raising concerns about possible gouging linked to shipping disruptions and demanding answers from major fertilizer companies by the end of the month. He sent a letter to the Department of Justice and fertilizer companies earlier this month demanding answers by today, March 27.

Farm Journal reached out to Mosaic Company, Nutrien and CF Industries for comment but did not receive responses.

Texas Corn Producers member and farmer Dee Vaughan says Hawley is asking the questions farmers need answered.

“This shouldn’t even be impacting us for another 75 days, but yet our prices on fertilizer that’s already in the warehouse are seeing dramatic increases,” he says. “It certainly appears to be price gouging on the part of the fertilizer industry.”

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

The 2022 study also found of the nitrogen fertilizer industry found that four major manufacturers - CF Industries, Nutrien, Koch Industries, and Yara International - account for roughly 75% of total U.S. nitrogen fertilizer production.

While the industry cited inflation and nationwide supply chain disruptions as drivers of higher prices for farmers at the time, the study found trends that challenge that narrative. According to the research, natural gas, which typically makes up 70-90% of variable production costs for nitrogen fertilizer, contributes only a fraction to recent price spikes. Specifically, for anhydrous ammonia, the study showed that natural gas accounts for just 15% of the increase, about $102, suggesting other factors are influencing soaring costs.

That concern is also the focus of a reported antitrust investigation by the DOJ announced in September, which is looking into whether major fertilizer producers have coordinated to inflate prices.

Similar to Perdue’s sentiments, Vaughan says farmers are waiting for results.

“Very simple; take action,” he says. “It’s one thing to have a memorandum of understanding or an executive order. But if it’s not followed through with actual investigation and actual work, it’s just words on paper.”

Fertilizer Prices Add Additional Strains at Planting

Perdue says the situation on the ground is as concerning as he has seen in years. Speaking after a recent fly-in to Washington, D.C., Perdue says many farmers are bracing for a difficult year ahead.

“We’re really, really concerned about the state of the farm economy,” Perdue says. “I asked our group yesterday to raise their hand if they anticipated breaking even in 2026, and not a single person raised their hand. That’s a message that Congress needs to hear.”

Perdue says fertilizer prices have become one of the most pressing challenges this spring. While some producers locked in inputs early — either through fall application or prepurchasing — many others delayed decisions, hoping for price relief that never came.

“There are some producers who got ahead with it and did some fall application, some who saw that prices were going to start jumping and bought their fertilizer a few weeks ago,” he says. “But there are a lot of people who still have fertilizer to book. When we’re seeing skyrocketing prices already at high levels, that’s a big concern for farmers across the country.”

That hesitation, he says, was driven by both financial pressure and uncertainty. Many farmers spent the winter working with lenders to map out their 2026 plans, while others gambled that prices might ease.

“I think there were two factors,” Perdue says. “One is the economic pain. A lot of producers have spent the last few months trying to figure out what 2026 looks like with their lender. The other is that producers saw high fertilizer costs in the fall and winter and said, ‘Maybe I’ll hold off and see if we get some relief.’ That’s obviously not coming with the current environment.”

Policy Pressure Builds in Washington

Fertilizer costs were a central topic during Perdue’s recent testimony before the U.S. Senate Committee on Agriculture, Nutrition, and Forestry. While the hearing focused on increasing domestic consumption of U.S. agricultural products, input costs quickly entered the discussion.

“The fertilizer cost on an acre of wheat is about 40% of your production cost, and that’s going up 30% now,” Perdue says. “You can’t make it work. You can’t make it pencil out. We have to look at market structures and the way they create challenges for market participants.”

At the same time, global events are compounding the issue. The White House recently announced a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, citing disruptions tied to conflict involving Iran that have impacted global shipping routes, including the Strait of Hormuz. The move is intended to ease pressure on energy and fertilizer markets by allowing foreign vessels to transport goods between U.S. ports.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt says the waiver will help keep supplies moving, while National Economic Council director Kevin Hassett says the administration is also seeking alternative fertilizer sources, including potential imports from Venezuela and Morocco.

“It’s almost planting season, and there’s a lot of fertilizer that usually goes down during planting season,” Hassett says. “What we’ve been doing as an insurance policy to the disruption is finding other sources. I’m not saying we can eliminate disruption, but we can minimize it.”

The Search for Immediate Relief

As farmers head into planting season, the search for both short-term relief and long-term reform continues. Darren Hudson of Texas Tech University suggests one immediate step could involve revisiting regulations tied to diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), which uses urea — a key nitrogen fertilizer component.

“Do away with it for multiple reasons,” Hudson says. “It’s urea that’s being put into people’s tanks rather than on people’s fields. That would ease things in the short run. In the long run, that was a disaster of a regulation.”

For now, however, most farmers are focused on getting crops in the ground, despite an economic outlook that remains highly uncertain. With input costs climbing, global instability lingering and policy solutions still in development, the 2026 growing season is shaping up to be one of the most financially challenging in recent memory.

Warm, Dry Spring Speeds Mississippi Planting Pace as March Freeze Forces Some Replanting

Thu, 26 Mar 2026 14:07:16 GMT

An unusually warm and dry spring is accelerating planting progress across parts of Mississippi, allowing farmers to move ahead of their typical schedule while also raising concerns about crop resilience and shifting acreage decisions.

On his farm in Sunflower County, Adron Belk’s planters are already running at full speed as conditions remain favorable.

“If everything goes well, the weather keeps on like it’s going, by the end of this week we should have all of our corn in the ground and probably all of our grain sorghum or milo,” Belk says.

Farmers Hit by March Freeze

Belk notes this year’s planting pace is slightly ahead of normal for his operation, though not unprecedented.

“It depends on who you ask… for us, this is about on time. Typically we’re a little bit later. I’d say maybe we’re a week earlier than normal,” he says. “A bit south of here, some guys planted a couple weeks ago and then we got an unexpected freeze.”

Corn in Mississippi hit by the freeze earlier this month.

(Chris, Mississippi )

That freeze is now creating challenges for some producers. Reports from nearby fields suggest damage to early-emerged corn, with some needing to be replanted.

“There’s a lot of talk going around right now of some of the corn looking like about 20% has got to be replanted, which was kind of a surprise,” Belk says. “Most of the time when you get freezes like that, the corn comes out of it.”

Buggy-whipping often occurs as corn recovers from freeze. This happens as new growth temporarily hangs on dead vegetation. They should soon pull free with little adverse effects.

For reference, the corn in the last photo still made over 250 bu/a despite severe hail damage. 🌽 pic.twitter.com/ptAO0nxYst
— Erick Larson (@MStateCorn) March 26, 2026

Focus on Fertilizer

Despite broader concerns about rising input costs across the U.S., Belk says his operation has avoided major supply issues so far.

“We book fertilizer early, and we’re very much in the South, and so we have not had any problems so far with getting supply,” he says.

While Belk is maintaining a relatively steady crop rotation — roughly a 50/50 split between corn and soybeans — other parts of the Mississippi Delta are seeing more dramatic changes.

Cotton Acreage Changes

Just north in Clarksdale, crop consultant Andy Graves says cotton acreage is expected to drop sharply this season.

“In this area, this is cotton country… it’s supposed to be,” Graves says. “We’re going to be about 50% off of what we planted in 2024.”

Graves says the reduction is significant, especially considering many growers typically plant thousands of acres of cotton each year.

“I’ve got guys that have been growing cotton — my average customer is going to grow three to four thousand acres of cotton every year — and a lot of these guys are going down to 500 to 1,500 acres,” he says.

He points to a combination of economic pressures behind the shift.

“The only reason they’re doing that is because they’re tied into a gin or they have a million-dollar cotton picker sitting there that they can’t park,” Graves says. “With what’s going on with fertilizer and fuel prices right now, it makes it even more unattractive to plant the stuff. The market isn’t there.”

Dry Conditions Aid Planting Progress

84% of the South is seeing dry conditions as of March 26, 2026

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

It’s not just the dry spring causing many farmers in the region to make strong progress and run slightly ahead of their typical planting window, it’s also how dry it’s been. According to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor, 84% of the South is seeing dry conditions as of March 26, 2026. If you look just at Mississippi, 68% of the state is seeing some level of drought.

Farmers say there’s enough topsoil moisture to plant the crop, but the drought picture this early in the year is a concern.

Trump Considers Suspending Moroccan Phosphate Duties Amid Corn Grower Pressure

Wed, 25 Mar 2026 12:53:44 GMT

For corn farmers like Dee Vaughan, the economics of fertilizer aren’t just a simple line item on the balance sheet; they are immediate, seasonal and deeply tied to whether a crop pencils out.

As a corn grower in the Texas Panhandle, Vaughan says rising input costs have forced tough decisions in recent years, particularly when it comes to phosphate, a cornerstone nutrient for crop production. And he says a key factor behind those higher costs is a federal trade policy now under review. At the heart of the issue, Vaughan says, is access, or lack of it.

That’s why just this week more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, are urging the U.S. Department of Commerce and the International Trade Commission (ITC) to revoke countervailing duties (CVDs) on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia. The groups filed a letter with the Department of Commerce, urging the agency to revoke countervailing duties on imports of phosphate fertilizer as the sunset review begins.

In addition to the letter, corn groups are on Capitol Hill this week, and that push may be gaining traction. On Tuesday, Agri-Pulse reported The Trump administration is weighing temporarily suspending countervailing applied to Moroccan and Russian phosphate.

How the Duties Took Hold

Vaughan says any action to remove those duties wouldn’t just be welcome, it would be a long time coming. He says the current dispute dates back to 2020, when fertilizer manufacturer Mosaic filed a petition alleging Moroccan phosphate imports were being subsidized unfairly. After reviewing the case, the ITC and Department of Commerce imposed countervailing duties on those imports.

“And basically what we have is a situation where The Mosaic Company came to the International Trade Commission and the Department of Commerce back in 2020 and asked for a countervailing duty, a CVD, to be placed on Moroccan fertilizer,” Vaughan says. “They were claiming that Moroccan fertilizer was coming into the United States in an unfair manner.”

He says the ruling reshaped the global fertilizer flow into the U.S. market.

“The ITC and the Department of Commerce reviewed that request and they applied a countervailing duty on Moroccan fertilizer, which effectively locked Moroccan fertilizer out of the U.S. market,” Vaughan says.

That outcome, he says, has had lasting consequences, particularly because Morocco represents one of the world’s most significant sources of phosphate.

“Morocco has the largest phosphate deposits in the world,” Vaughan says. “They have the ability to provide a lot of supply to us while our phosphate rock resources are declining here. They’re not capable of meeting the demand for the U.S. market.”

Supply Constraints Meet Rising Demand

For corn growers, phosphate isn’t optional. It’s essential for root development, plant vigor and yield potential. When supply tightens, growers feel it quickly and often adjust in ways that ripple across the entire agricultural economy.

“We need that access to the Moroccan fertilizer, but we’re blocked off from it by these countervailing duties,” Vaughan says.

Now, five years after those duties were imposed, the policy is entering its required “sunset review,” a process that allows regulators to evaluate whether the measures should remain in place.

That review begins in April, and Vaughan says corn growers see it as a critical opportunity to get the duties removed.

“Five years have gone by since those CVDs were applied, and now they are coming up for mandatory review,” he says. “There will be an opportunity to remove those CVDs.”

Measuring the Economic Impact

The push to remove the duties is backed by economic analysis.

Vaughan says conversations with lawmakers last year helped spur a deeper look at the issue. During meetings in Washington, D.C., Texas Corn raised concerns with members of Congress, including Rep. Pat Fallon, who then commissioned a study by the Texas A&M Ag and Food Policy Center. The results, Vaughan says, were significant.

“What they determined is for the program crops — corn, wheat, grains, oilseeds, rice — it had cost about $6.9 billion over the five years that the CVD has been in place,” Vaughan says.

The analysis released in January of this year added to the growing body of evidence that countervailing duties on phosphate imports have significantly impacted U.S. farmers.

The Texas A&M Food and Agricultural Policy Center report specifically found the CVD increased the price of diammonium phosphate (DAP), a commonly used phosphorus fertilizer, by 28.6% during the period when the duty was set at its full initial rate of 19.97%. That price impact, the study notes, aligns with concerns raised by farm groups and lawmakers, as well as previous academic research.

The study also estimates the higher costs have added roughly $6.9 billion to phosphorus fertilizer expenses for U.S. producers of major crops during the 2021 through 2025 growing seasons, further underscoring the financial burden on agriculture tied to the policy.

“It’s not a silver bullet in itself that if it’s removed it’s going to make phosphate fertilizer much more affordable,” he says. “But at the same time, if we can keep a billion dollars in the farmers’ pockets, that’s a small win that we want to take advantage of.”

Fertilizer Companies Respond

Farm Journal reached out to fertilizer companies for perspective on potential action to remove the countervailing duties on phosphate imports.

In a statement, Mosiac said, “American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of US trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high‑quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Earlier this month, Nutrien told Farm Journal the evolving global supply and demand landscape for phosphate supports reconsideration of the current policy.

“Based on evolving global phosphate supply and demand dynamics since 2021, we believe removing countervailing duties on phosphate imports would be a constructive step that supports U.S. farmer economics, balanced fertilizer application and agricultural productivity,” Nutrien said to Farm Journal. “Farmers and food security are at the center of everything we do, and we continuously engage with our customers and associations on issues that are important to U.S. agriculture.”

A Broader Policy Question

While Vaughan is advocating for the removal of these specific duties, he says he recognizes the importance of trade enforcement tools more broadly.

“You know, we do have situations around the world where governments subsidize their industries, or they do things that are unfair trade practices,” he says. “And we need to protect U.S. industry in those situations.”

However, he argues this case highlights the risk of unintended consequences.

“We don’t want that CVD process abused when it’s not necessary,” Vaughan says. “And that’s the situation we feel like we’re in now.”

In his view, the duties have outlived whatever purpose they may have served — and are now doing more harm than good.

“We felt like they never should have been applied,” he says. “If you read the case, it’s very complicated, but it also makes you scratch your head and wonder why they even granted these CVDs to start with.”

Taking the Case to Washington

With the sunset review approaching, grower groups are mobilizing to make their case. Texas Corn is in Washington this week, meeting with lawmakers and encouraging them to weigh in with regulators.

“During this review period, there’s an opportunity for ag organizations to make comments and to testify at hearings,” Vaughan says. “There’s an opportunity for Congress to weigh in with the Department of Commerce.”

While the ITC operates independently, it does consider input from affected industries and elected officials.

“They’re charged with listening to the affected industries, which would be agricultural producers,” Vaughan says. “And of course members of Congress have an opportunity to weigh in with how it’s affecting their constituents at home.”

The goal, he says, is to ensure decision-makers understand the real-world impact.

Looking Ahead

For Vaughan and other corn growers, the outcome of the review could shape fertilizer markets — and farm economics — for years to come.

Restoring access to Moroccan phosphate, he says, would reintroduce competition, improve supply and help ease cost pressures across agriculture.

“It’s basically just hurting U.S. industry now,” Vaughan says. “It’s not helping.”

And while Morocco has other markets for its fertilizer, U.S. farmers have fewer alternatives when domestic supply falls short.

“It’s not really hurting the Moroccans per se,” he says. “They’re having to send fertilizer to other places in the world. But it’s hurting U.S. farmers.”

As planting season ramps up, Vaughan says the stakes are clear, not just for growers, but for the entire food system.

“We’re very hopeful that ag organizations and members of Congress take advantage of this situation and weigh in,” he says. “This is an opportunity to fix something that’s been costing agriculture for five years.”

Conflict with Iran Pushes Back Planting Decisions for Indiana Farmer

Fri, 13 Mar 2026 20:24:13 GMT

By this time of year, third-generation farmer Tom Parker typically knows how much of each crop he’s planting in his fields. But this year is different.

Parker said crop value and profitability per acre are holding him up."Everything is kind of up in the air this year,” Parker said. "[It’s] probably one of the most unplanned years so far.”

Parker usually plants half of his acres in corn and the other half in soybeans and tomatoes. His work in the field and on the road is likely to cost him more this year. GasBuddy reports that in the last week, diesel prices went up about 80 cents per gallon. “Until we get a resolution in the Middle East, where we are, and there’s not really a whole lot that any of us can do about,” GasBuddy Petroleum Analyst Matt McClain said.

“I wish I had filled my tanks up before this,” Parker said. “I was planning on filling them up and didn’t get it done, so we’ll see how that hurts.” He hopes that if issues overseas are resolved in the next few weeks, it won’t impact his bottom line.

Parker bought his fertilizer last fall, but he’s concerned that if the conflict overseas continues, it could be difficult to get the products to his farm.

“Some of our farmers around the country have already reported paying tens of thousands of dollars more to secure the last amounts of fertilizer they need for this spring,” American Farm Bureau Vice President of Public Policy and Economic Analysis John Newton said. " I think the challenge is really gonna be about availability.”

Parker plans to start planting once the weather breaks after April 1.

The Iran War Is Sending Fertilizer Prices Soaring at the Worst Time for Farmers

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 18:43:16 GMT

The American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF) is urging the Trump administration to take immediate action to stabilize fertilizer supply chains as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East send shockwaves through global input markets just as U.S. farmers begin spring planting. But with farmers already dealing with high fertilizer prices, even before the conflict in Iran, farmers are searching for a longer-term solution. Fertilizer market analysts warn while there are several options longer-term, there is no single fix for high fertilizer prices, only a mix of short-term policy responses and long-term investments that could gradually stabilize supply.

But today, the sticker shock is hitting farmers hard, especially for those who waited to book fertilizer for spring. Fertilizer prices have shot up in just a week. Typically, retailers may receive updated pricing once or twice a month. But with the ongoing uncertainty in Iran and the impact on the Strait of Hormuz is having on fertilizer shipments, some retailers say they are getting several pricing updates a day.

The price shock is real for farmers. One local Missouri retailer told AgWeb that in just a two-week period:

Urea is up $140 per ton
NH3 has risen $100 per ton
UAN is also up $100 per ton

American Farm Bureau Calls for Intervention

In a March 9 letter to the White House , AFBF warned fertilizer and fuel prices have surged following disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and shipping corridors. The organization says the spike in costs comes as farmers are already dealing with what it describes as a “generational decline in farm income” driven by falling crop prices and persistent inflation.

AFBF notes farmers entered 2026 on somewhat stronger footing after passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill Act and $12 billion in emergency economic assistance. However, the group warns rapidly rising input costs could quickly erase those gains, and now U.S. producers are bracing for a system shock resulting from the disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.

Middle East Tensions Highlight Fertilizer Market Risks

New analysis from AFBF’s Market Intel team underscores why fertilizer markets are particularly vulnerable to geopolitical instability involving Iran and neighboring countries in the Persian Gulf. Nitrogen fertilizer supply chains are closely tied to the region, which accounts for nearly 49% of global urea exports and about 30% of global ammonia exports. Major exporters include Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and Egypt.

AFBF says the Strait of Hormuz is central to energy and fertilizer trade. Oil flowing through the Strait averaged about 20 million barrels per day in 2024, roughly 20% of global petroleum liquids consumption. Because energy is a major input to fertilizer production and transportation, disruptions or heightened risk in the region can amplify volatility across agricultural input markets.

(American Farm Bureau Federation )

Large volumes of fertilizer inputs, including urea, ammonia, phosphates and sulfur, move through the Strait of Hormuz each year, creating a major choke point for agricultural supply chains. AFBF says energy markets are also closely linked to fertilizer production. Their estimates point to roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day moving through the Strait, about 20% of global petroleum consumption. Because energy is a major input in fertilizer manufacturing and transportation, disruptions in the region can quickly amplify price volatility.

AFBF economists say Iran holds some of the world’s largest natural gas reserves, and natural gas is the key feedstock used to produce ammonia, the foundational input for most nitrogen fertilizers. Urea, which contains about 46% nitrogen, is the most widely used solid nitrogen fertilizer globally and plays a central role in crop production systems.

(American Farm Bureau Federation )

The timing of the disruption is especially concerning because U.S. farmers are currently making fertilizer purchases and applying nutrients ahead of planting. Analysts on U.S. Farm Report last weekend warned higher input costs could shift up to 1 million 1.5 million acres from corn to soybeans this spring . AFBF analysts also say delayed shipments or higher prices could lead some farmers to adjust cropping plans.

Why U.S. Farmers Feel Global Price Swings

Even when the United States is not directly importing fertilizer from the Middle East, domestic prices still follow global markets.
The U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand. According to AFBF, the U.S. imports roughly:

97% of its potassium
18% of its nitrogen
13% of its phosphate

That global exposure means disruptions anywhere in the fertilizer supply chain can quickly affect American farmers.

A new AFBF Market Intel report shows the U.S. relies on both domestic production and imports to meet fertilizer demand, and import exposure varies by nutrient. Roughly 97% of potassium is imported, 18% of nitrogen and 13% of phosphate. This import exposure increases sensitivity to global trade disruptions, particularly during seasonal demand peaks.

(American Farm Bureau Federation)

Short-Term Fixes: Policy and Supply

In the letter sent to the White House this week, AFBF president Zippy Duvall not only pointed out the fertilizer problem farmers now face, but he also outlined several steps the administration could take immediately to prevent supply disruptions and moderate prices.

Among the recommendations:

Using the U.S. Navy to help ensure safe maritime transit for fertilizer shipments through the Strait of Hormuz.
Working with international partners to maintain open shipping lanes.
Addressing insurance barriers for vessels transporting fertilizer cargo through federal tools, such as programs administered by the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation.
Ensuring domestic ports, railroads and barge systems can quickly move fertilizer supplies to farms.
Temporarily waiving the Jones Act to improve domestic shipping capacity between U.S. ports.
Suspending countervailing duties on certain imported fertilizer products.

But while those actions could help ease pressure in the short term, fertilizer analysts say structural challenges in the market remain.

Are Fertilizer Prices in a Worst-Case Scenario?

While fertilizer is even more of a concern heading into spring, prices were already high, even before the situation unfolded in Iran earlier this month. According to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, many farmers are asking a more immediate question: Have fertilizer prices already reached the worst-case scenario?

Linville says the answer is “no.”

The reason, he explains, is that global fertilizer markets remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments — particularly those affecting major shipping lanes.

At the moment, much of that uncertainty centers around tensions involving Iran and the potential threat to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical energy and fertilizer trade routes.

“Right now we still hold onto the hope that, within a couple days, we will put so much pressure on the Iranian regime and take out so many of their leaders that they become a shell,” Linville says. “All of a sudden they can no longer do the offensive attacks. They can no longer pressure the Strait of Hormuz and cause vessels to sit there and say, ‘I will not risk my ship, I will not risk my crew and I will not risk my load to go through a channel that’s that dangerous.’”

If tensions escalate to the point shipping companies refuse to move vessels through the region, fertilizer supply chains could face significant disruptions. A large portion of global nitrogen and phosphate trade flows through the Middle East, making the waterway critical to international fertilizer logistics.

But if the situation stabilizes quickly, Linville believes markets could recover just as fast.

“If we can knee-cap them to the point that they no longer have an offensive capability, and we can free flow back in the Strait of Hormuz, we’ve only lost several days — maybe a week,” he says. “And I think we can make that up very, very quickly.”

That means geopolitical risk remains one of the biggest wild cards in fertilizer markets. Prices could move sharply higher if trade routes are disrupted, but they could also stabilize if those risks fade.

What Are Possible Longer-Term Fixes?

While fertilizer prices may not have even seen the highs, especially if ships through the Strait aren’t able to get through, farmers searching for a single solution to high fertilizer prices are likely to be frustrated.

“People keep asking, ‘How do we fix this? How do we fix this?’” Linville says during a recent appearance on the Unscripted podcast . “No one answer is going to fix every fertilizer.”

Instead, Linville says the conversation needs to separate short-term relief from long-term structural fixes. When he looks at the nitrogen market, which includes urea, UAN and ammonia, Linville says there is at least one potential short-term lever policymakers could pull.

“In the short term, when I look at urea, when I look at nitrogen, my short-term view is simple: Get rid of DEF. Get rid of those regulations,” he says.

Diesel exhaust fluid (DEF), which is used in emissions systems for diesel engines, relies on urea as a key ingredient. Linville says that policy requirement diverts nitrogen away from agriculture.

“Everybody is begging for it because it’s terrible for equipment, and it puts a lot of that nitrogen back in the hands of the farmer,” Linville says. “That is a quick fix.”

But he says the bigger issue for nitrogen markets is production capacity.

Natural gas is the primary feedstock used to produce nitrogen fertilizer, and the United States and Canada have some of the cheapest natural gas supplies in the world. Yet North America still relies heavily on imported fertilizer.

“Longer term, we need to look at trying to invest more money,” Linville says. “Get similar-type loans to build new nitrogen facilities in the U.S. and Canada, wherever that might be. It needs to be a North America approach. That’s a long-term fix.”

Linville says governments have already shown a willingness to support fertilizer development projects, but those efforts have focused on the wrong nutrients.

“The government has given long-term loans to potash mines. That’s the one product we really don’t need more of,” he says. “I like that focus. I like that we’re increasing it. But potash is literally the last one that we need help with.”

Instead, he says those same financing tools should be directed toward nitrogen production facilities.

Building Fertilizer Plants Is a Massive Investment

Even if policymakers and investors move quickly, Linville says expanding fertilizer production is not a fast process. Fertilizer plants are some of the most complex and expensive facilities in the agricultural supply chain.

“It is multi-years and multi-billions of U.S. dollars,” Linville says.

To illustrate the scale of investment required, he points to a recent nitrogen plant transaction in Iowa.

“The Wever, Iowa, plant just sold not so long ago for $3-plus billion,” Linville says. “If the three of us came together and said, ‘You know what, let’s build a plant,’ a brand new world-scale facility is probably going to be $4 billion.”

Even after construction begins, production still takes time.

“You won’t see the first ton be produced and sold at a profit, at a margin, for probably at least 1.5 to 2 years, bare minimum. It’s a massive undertaking. There’s a lot of engineering, a lot of construction, a lot of land clearing. It’s not a fast process,” he says.

Still, Linville says increasing domestic production would help stabilize global fertilizer markets over time.

“If we produce here, we have more global supplies and less global demand because the U.S. and Canada are no longer calling on the rest of the world trying to buy these tons,” Linville says. “It helps smooth out the price curve.”

Should Fertilizer Companies Be Investigated?

As fertilizer prices climb, some policymakers are calling for closer scrutiny of the industry, citing concerns about consolidation and potential market manipulation. Last week, the U.S. Department of Justice launched an antitrust investigation into the U.S. fertilizer sector. According to a report from Bloomberg News, the probe is examining whether major fertilizer producers may have coordinated to push prices higher.

Companies reportedly included in the investigation are Nutrien, The Mosaic Company, CF Industries Holdings, Koch Industries and Yara International, firms that collectively represent a significant share of the U.S. nitrogen, phosphate and potash fertilizer markets.

That’s in addition to USDA also saying an investigation would occur into fertilizer pricing, calling Mosaic and Nutrien a ‘duopoly.’

Linville says those investigations are unlikely to solve the underlying issue.

“You’re going to hear a lot of farmers’ heads pop off when I say this, but I’m going to say ‘no,’” Linville says.

Instead, he points to price data from the New Orleans fertilizer market, commonly referred to as NOLA, which serves as the benchmark for U.S. urea prices.

“Look at our NOLA urea price,” Linville says. “Again, New Orleans, Louisiana, it’s the most visible market out there. NOLA to urea is the same as Chicago is to corn. It’s our base place for that trade.”

When those prices are compared to global benchmarks, Linville says the U.S. market has actually been trading below world values.

“When you look at the NOLA urea price compared to the Middle East replacement value, and we watch the Middle East because half of our urea imports come from that region, we have been operating at a discount for the entirety of this fertilizer year since July 1, 2025. There’s not been a week where our price has been a premium to the world.” Linville adds.

Because the U.S. still imports millions of tons of fertilizer each year, domestic prices inevitably follow the global market.

“It doesn’t matter if you have three dozen manufacturers or three,” Linville says. “Our price is still going to ebb and flow with that world product price because we are still a net importer.”

Tariffs on Moroccan, Russian Phosphate Imports Up for Review

While nitrogen markets are heavily tied to natural gas and production capacity, phosphate fertilizers face a different set of challenges, particularly trade policy.

The U.S. currently has countervailing duties on phosphate imports from Morocco and Russia that were implemented in 2021. Those duties are approaching a required five-year “sunset review,” which will determine whether they remain in place. That’s one thing AFBF stated this week that they’d like to see the Trump administration address.

But even before this week, groups such as NCGA have called on both the Trump and Biden administrations to remove the tariff, saying it’s only further driving up the prices farmers are paying.

“The countervailing duty against Morocco and Russia was officially put into place late March, early April 2021,” Linville says. “And it’s got a five-year sunset review. That’s exactly what we’re getting ready to move into.”

Some in the industry believe the review could result in those duties being overturned, opening the door for additional phosphate imports, but Linville isn’t convinced that outcome is likely.

“There’s a lot of excitement that they’re going to review this and overturn it,” he says. “I will say I have a higher-than-I-should optimism that they will overturn it and get rid of it. But the history of countervailing duty reviews would tell you there’s a very low chance that they’re going to overturn it.”

The reason is simple: Those reviews are supposed to be driven strictly by data. And in this case, the underlying conditions that led to the tariffs haven’t changed dramatically.

“Russia hasn’t changed practices. I don’t know that Morocco has changed enough of their practices.”

Still, he believes there is at least some possibility the political environment could influence the outcome.

“I have never seen an administration talk about fertilizer as much as this one has,” Linville says. “Because there’s been so much focus on the farmer and on fertilizer markets, there could be a political lean where they say, ‘Listen, I know what’s going on. You need to do something about this.’”

Even so, he cautions against farmers expecting a reversal.

A Complex Market With No Single Fix

Ultimately, fertilizer markets are shaped by a complex mix of energy prices, global trade flows, geopolitics and production capacity.
That means solving the fertilizer price puzzle will likely require a combination of policies, investments and international partnerships.

For farmers heading into the 2026 planting season, however, the immediate concern remains whether fertilizer supplies will arrive in time and at prices they can afford.

“It’s simple, guys,” Linville says. “But every fertilizer has a different path to fixing it.”

Fertilizer Prices Top List of 2026 Profitability Threats as Global Supply Tightens

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 18:49:12 GMT

When Farm Journal asked economists, farmers and ag retailers what could threaten profitability in 2026 in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , fertilizer prices rose to the top. Despite farmers cutting back on fertilizer and increased political scrutiny, analysts say the odds of meaningful relief remain slim.

“There’s never a moment where I like to say prices can’t come down,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group. “Because the second you do that, the market will humble you. But when I look at everything that’s happening globally, and I look at how little time we really have between now and the start of spring, I see a lot more roads that lead to flat or higher prices than I do to lower ones.”

Cutting Back Fertilizer Has Limits

Farmers are clearly responding to high prices, particularly on nutrients where application can be adjusted. Linville says phosphate took the brunt of those cuts last fall.

“If you go back to the fall season, we believe phosphate application in North America was down about 20% from normal,” Linville said at the 2026 Top Producer Summit . “That’s exactly what we expected to see. We had high fertilizer prices, low grain prices and phosphate sitting there saying, ‘I’m the highest-cost input, and I’m variable-rate.’ If you’re a farmer looking to cut costs, that’s where you go first.”

What happens next remains uncertain, and if you ask Linville, that uncertainty itself is a risk to the market.

“The question we don’t know yet is what that means for spring,” Linville says. “Is spring demand down another 20%? Or does some of that fall reduction just get pushed into the spring window?”

Even with reductions, acreage levels keep overall demand elevated.

“At the end of the day, we’re still talking about planting roughly 93 million acres of corn in 2026,” Linville says. “There are people making a very good argument for 95 million acres. I’m not ready to move our team there yet, but even at 93, that’s still a massive amount of demand.”

And for certain nutrients, farmers simply don’t have a choice.

“If you’re going to plant corn, if you’re going to plant wheat, you have to have nitrogen,” Linville points out. “There’s no getting around that.”

“Waning Optimism” on Price Relief

From Rabobank’s perspective, the outlook is growing more discouraging. Samuel Taylor, farm inputs analyst for Rabobank, says hopes for relief on fertilizer affordability are fading.

“To be honest, I think we’re going to be talking about high input prices and poor affordability through most of this year, and even into the third and fourth quarters,” he says. “Some nutrients might see short-term improvement, but phosphate remains the biggest concern.

“There is some optimism around ammonia,” he adds. “We do have new North American capacity coming online, and over a longer time period that should help. But when it comes to phosphate affordability, we actually run the risk that average phosphate prices this year could be higher than last year.”

A Hard Message for 2026

Neither analyst downplays how difficult the current environment is for farmers.

“Farmers should be frustrated. They should be angry, upset, every negative emotion under the sun. When you look at urea relative to corn prices for this time of year, we’ve never seen that ratio this high going back to at least 2018,” Linville says. “Phosphate ratios are as high as ever starting a year.”

And prices are moving the wrong direction.

“Since the first half of December, urea is up about $100 a ton,” Linville says. “UAN looks like it’s about ready to jump. Anhydrous looks like it’s about ready to go. Phosphate is likely to rally as soon as spring demand shows up.”

Taylor is blunt in his assessment, as he thinks it’s unlikely we’ll see fertilizer prices come down.

“I’m fairly bearish on the outlook for input prices coming down,” he says. “In many ways, we’re just kicking the can down the road.”

Phosphate Prices Are Being Set Globally

Both analysts point to phosphate as the clearest example of why fertilizer prices might stay elevated and why the problem is structural.

“When we talk about phosphate, we’re not talking about a lack of competition,” Linville says. “We’re talking about a lack of global supply.”

Production and exports are concentrated in just five countries: China, Russia, Morocco, Saudi Arabia and the United States. China alone dominates global trade.

“Normally, China exports 8 to 10 million tons of phosphate,” Linville says. “In 2025, they exported just over 5 million tons. As we sit here right now, with the information we have, China is not exporting phosphate until August.”

The impact of that absence ripples through the entire market.

“If the world’s biggest exporter is not participating for several months of the year, global prices are going to be higher,” Linville says. “There’s nothing the U.S. can do about that. We move up with the global market.”

Taylor sees the same dynamic playing out, and he doesn’t believe it will resolve quickly.

“China is looking like an unreliable supplier to the global market again,” Taylor says. “When you combine that with geopolitical risks in other key producing regions, this is starting to look much more structural than temporary.”

High Costs Are Forcing Production Offline

Even if demand softens, analysts say prices have a built-in floor because production costs have surged.

“One of the biggest things people miss is intermediate pricing,” Taylor says. “Sulfur prices ran up in the third and fourth quarters, and that’s pulling marginal phosphate production off the market.”

That squeeze is already visible, according to both Taylor and Linville.

“The stripping margins for phosphate producers have collapsed through the floor,” Taylor says. “In certain geographies, the stripping margin, which is essentially your gross margin, is actually negative.”

“We’ve already seen an [Single Superphosphate] facility in Brazil shut down because the cost of production was higher than the value of the finished product,” he says. “If we try to push prices lower from here, you’re not going to get cheaper fertilizer. You’re just going to get less of it.”

In the U.S., phosphate rock availability adds another constraint.

“We only have so much phosphate rock left. Producers aren’t going to mine it at a loss. As soon as you get back to breakeven or worse, production shuts off, and that lost supply fixes the price again,” Linville adds.

Consolidation Isn’t the Whole Story

With fertilizer prices high, consolidation in the industry has drawn increasing scrutiny from policymakers . Taylor acknowledges the frustration but cautions against simplistic conclusions.

“I’m not sure I’m the right person to say whether there are anti-competitive practices,” Taylor says. “But what I do think gets missed in this conversation is the sheer cost of bringing new production online.”

He points to multibillion-dollar investments, long permitting timelines and environmental obligations.

“Look at the Canadian potash expansion projects. We’re talking about $8 billion in capital. Look at retirement obligations at phosphate facilities. Look at the cost of building a nitrogen or ammonia plant today. You need a very strong balance sheet just to survive that process,” Taylor says.

That reality creates economies of scale that are difficult to avoid.

“We do need some semblance of consolidation,” he adds. “That’s not necessarily the answer farmers want to hear, but if you aim for total self-reliance, particularly in potash, you might actually end up paying more, not less.”

Nitrogen Shutdowns Aren’t Manipulation

Accusations of intentional supply restriction are especially common in nitrogen markets. Linville, who previously worked for a nitrogen manufacturer, pushes back on that idea.

Plant outages, he says, are often misunderstood and planned shutdowns are often a safer option.

“You either shut it down with the people, the parts and the plan in place, or you wait for something to break, and then it’s down even longer,” Linville exp From the outside, it can look like manipulation. From the inside, it’s just reality.”

Policy Is Blurring Market Signals

Taylor says domestic policy is also preventing markets from correcting.

“Government support is blurring the demand falloff we might otherwise see, and that demand destruction is often what helps correct prices,” Taylor says.

But then when you throw in trade policies, Taylor says that adds another layer of cost.

“We’ve seen reciprocal tariffs, countervailing duties and those costs are passed straight through to farmers,” Taylor says. “There are mechanisms within our control that could help, but there’s very little we can do about Chinese domestic policy or geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East, which sit right at the heart of global fertilizer production.”

What Farmers Need to Know for 2026

Despite the frustration, both analysts stress discipline.

“My advice is always the same: Farm to return on investment, not to yield,” Taylor says.

“Be emotional right now, that’s human,” Linville adds. “But when it comes time to make decisions for your fields or your marketing, leave that emotion at the door. That’s where people get hurt.”

For now, fertilizer remains one of the biggest threats to farm profitability in 2026 and one that might not offer easy relief.

Control the Controllables To Capture More Bushels

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 19:27:18 GMT

A solid game plan addressing key fundamentals could be the most powerful risk-management tool farmers have going into the 2026 season, according to Randy Dowdy and David Hula. Here are four they encourage farmers to review and work on this winter:

Fuel The Crop Adequately

Hula stresses that even in low-margin years, you can’t cut corners on fundamental crop needs. He emphasizes using soil tests to manage N, P and K, looking at soil pH and applying lime where needed.

“When you think about where you’re spending dollars, you can’t waiver from that,” he says. “We have to cover the basics… there’s nothing that’s sexy about farming right now, [everyone’s] just trying to survive.”

Why Your Planter Is the Lowest Hanging Fruit for Yield

Randy Dowdy says the planter represents the “lowest hanging fruit” for yield improvement on 90% of U.S. farms.

“The planter is just not performing at the levels to reach the maximum potential that most farmers need to support and service debt,” Dowdy says.

He encourages growers to spend time in the shop, ensuring that every row unit is capable of delivering “picket fence” seed placement and performance. For Dowdy, this means every seed is placed at a consistent depth and spacing, emerging within a tight window of 10 to 12 Growing Degree Units (GDUs) of one another

“Does every seed have the same standard deviation between them, the placement from one seed to the next? Are they all singulated, and are they all coming up at the same time? If that’s not happening, that’s a big deal,” Dowdy says.

Consider Seed Size Along With Good Genetics

While every farmer is tuned into genetics, Dowdy and Hula say they can benefit from taking seed size into consideration, too.

One of the questions Hula says he often gets is, “What’s the best seed size to plant?”

After years of analyzing small rounds versus large flats, his philosophy has evolved into a practical rule of thumb.

“My answer now is simple: whatever your planter plants the best, that’s the seed you want to plant,” he says.

But that only works if you’ve done your homework on the meters—cleaning them, replacing worn parts, and calibrating them with actual seed to determine the vacuum and speed settings. Taking these steps can eliminate guesswork that leads to skips and doubles.

Generally, Dowdy observes that “Deere likes rounds, Precision likes flats.”

Both Dowdy and Hula caution against the temptation of buying plateless (mixed-size) seed just because it carries a lower price tag. Their take: if you use it, run side‑by‑side strips with good, graded seed so you can see the real yield cost.

“I’d really challenge [anyone using plateless seed] to plant some graded seed next to it… just so you could know what it’s costing you. It’s costing you money,” says Hula.

Take Only Calculated Risks, ‘Miss Small’

Dowdy says this is the year to “control the controllables” and stick with practices you know consistently pay. He warns that farmers can’t afford big mistakes in this economy. While he’s not afraid of trying new practices, he is afraid of not being profitable and not being able to service debt, so due diligence and ROI have to come first.

“If we’re going to have a fail, we don’t need to fail in a big way. We need to miss small in an economy like this,” Dowdy says. “I’ll put my big toe in the water, but it won’t be my whole foot and a bunch of acres.”

A Checklist For Reference This Winter

Here are additional highlights of recommendations Dowdy and Hula listed during their most recent Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast. These are not all-inclusive, but rather a starting point for farmers preparing for spring:

1. Soil and Fertility Basics

Lime and pH: Check pH by zone or grid. Apply lime only where pH is low. Avoid wasting inputs on ground at 6.5 or higher.
Manganese Alert: Watch for potential deficiencies in high pH spots (above 6.8).
P and K Strategy: Use recent soil tests to determine if Phosphorus can be reduced. Keep Potash a priority where base saturation justifies the spend.

2. The Planter Bar and Row Units

Parallel Arms: Inspect for “oblong” wear or side play. Replace any arms that aren’t tight.
Double-Disc Openers: Use a jig to check run-out. Only use blades that meet tight tolerances for a clean V-trench.
Gauge Wheels: Lift by hand. If they feel loose or drop instantly, adjust or replace the bushings and arms.
Alignment: Use a tape measure to verify every row is exactly on target (e.g., 30 inches). Ensure the toolbar is perfectly level front-to-back at operating height.

3. Seed Trench and Closing System

Centering: Run the planter across concrete. Ensure closing wheel marks are perfectly centered over the seed path.
Row Cleaners: Adjust “trash whippers” to move residue without gouging a deep furrow that could lead to erosion or crusting.

4. Seed and Meter Calibration

Match Seed to Meter: Generally, John Deere/ExactEmerge systems prefer rounds, while Precision Planting systems prefer flats.
The Meter Test: Replace worn belts and brushes. Calibrate meters annually on a test stand using your actual seed to determine the exact vacuum and speed settings.
The “Plateless” Warning: Avoid the temptation of cheap, mixed-size seed. If you use it, run a side-by-side strip against graded seed to measure the true cost of lost bushels.

5. Management Mindset

Miss Small: This is the year for calculated risks. Put your “big toe” in the water with new tech, but don’t commit the whole farm until you see a proven ROI on your own soil.
Check Strips: Always leave a clean, untreated check strip when trying new products for evaluation.

Hear the latest Breaking Barriers With R&D to learn more about Hula and Dowdy’s recommendations at Farm Journal TV and the YouTube link below.

It’s Time For Next Gen Farmers To Adjust Their Game Plan

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 14:16:33 GMT

It’s time to write a new playbook for the next generation of row crop farmers looking to expand their businesses. Economics show expansion isn’t possible by being a high cash renter.

This is according to University of Illinois economists Gary Schnitkey and Nick Paulson, who say the current plateau projected for commodity prices ($4 corn and $10.50 soybeans) is out of line with input costs. This is particularly punctuated by cash rent trends (Illinois 2025 average is $264/acre).

High Cash Rents Equals Negative Margins

While in the past a successful strategy could be to optimize row crop operations by expanding acres with cash rent, the economists say those acres now experience some of the worst margins, and therefore have completely undercut that a strategy.

“Since 2022, we saw cash rents and non-land costs go up,” Schnitkey explained on a recent webinar hosted by the Illinois Soybean Association. “We don’t expect to see much more moderation in costs for the next year or the year after. Break evens in this situation are above what the market is offering.”

While ad hoc farmer payments are helping with some operating costs, the economists say they aren’t enough to make up the difference in production costs.

“A combination of lower prices and higher costs have pushed us into a very low return period,” Schnitkey says. “When we do budgets for ’26, we come up with a return of -$17/acre.”

The economic projections specific for rented acres are even worse.

While recognizing averages don’t represent any one individual farm, Nick Paulson says analyzing the average cash rents do provide important and useful trend data.

With statewide averages for Illinois, Indiana and Iowa reporting at $264, $227 and $274/acre, respectively, Paulson says those have steadily risen since 2020.
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The economists observe there’s not enough returns on corn and soybean production to provide both the landowner and the farmer with historical normal returns. Paulson adds there’s pressure for lower cash rents, but so far, most have only reported small adjustments. While there have been a few dollars shaved off the averages from ’24 to ’25, he says, from a farmers’ perspective, those need to decline even greater.

“If we bid above average cash rents, we’re just burning cash quicker,” Paulson says.

Looking at the University of Illinois crop budgets for 2026, Paulson reports on a 50% corn/50% soybean farm in central Illinois, the average margin on rented acres is -$32/acre.

“We’ve seen farmers, particularly family farms, since the 1990s expand their farming operations by renting more ground, especially as a way to bring back more family to the farm and gain efficiencies with machinery over more acres,” Paulson says. “It’s been a strategy to rent land and use the resources built up on that rented ground to build the land base. It’s a much more challenging and infeasible strategy compared to what that strategy has done in the past.”

Take a Hard Look At All Rented Acres

While University of Illinois data points to a long-term average of $100/acre return for 50/50 corn and soybean farms in central Illinois, the current cash rent figures paint a stark contrast. As such, he says farmers should evaluate rental decisions selectively.

(University of Illinois)

“It’s not even close to the $100 average,” Paulson says. “For the foreseeable future, that’s likely to be the case. We don’t see prices increasing. Costs are coming down slowly. I don’t know where farmers can find the difference anywhere in their production budget. And particularly, this will effect younger farmers. They can’t pay to farm those acres.”

Established farmers may have an advantage as low-debt owned farmland may be subsidizing rental farmland. Owned farmland, in the U of I 2026 crop budget, shows a positive return.

“For those established farms with a stable land base, it’s time to look at the cash rented parcels and ask why. It’s tough to let a farm go. You don’t know when an opportunity arises in the future under more profitable circumstances. That’s a tough trigger to pull. Given the size of the red numbers we’re looking at, it’s a question we need to seriously ask ourselves,” Schnitckey says.

New Strategy

Paulson says a strategy for next gen farmer revenue growth can come from two areas — generating revenue from on-farm businesses or off-farm income.

“We’ve got two problems. We don’t know when the high income years from farming will happen again — it could be next week or 10 years from now,” Paulson says. “And the other problem is, in the meantime, chances for profitability are extremely low.”

When reviewing data from Illinois Farm Business Farm Management participants, Schnitckey says it’s important to look at income versus living costs.

“Non-farm income is much more stable than net farm income over time,” he says. “And today, non-farm income is a significant part of funding sources for the farm operation — it’s probably growing in significance.”

Specific to 2024 data, living expenses exceeded net farm income. And while not the first time that imbalance has been seen, it’s important to note how that erodes equity on grain farms.

(University of Illinois)

Additionally, younger farmers are challenged in these times because they are less likely to have assets accumulated, and it’s harder in current conditions to acquire assets.

“Ideally, what you want is a household to have a six-figure off-farm family income — with health benefits,” Schnitckey says. “And have other farm businesses that generate cash. If you can farm, you have business skills and entrepreneurial skills to take advantage of.”

Examples shared by the economists of on-farm alternative enterprises include:

Decommoditizing commodity production (for example, organic or non-GMO), specialty grains, food grade, etc.
Direct to consumer/branded products
Seed sales
Custom farming

Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 12:38:59 GMT

How deep is the farm crisis? Adios to acreage.

In November 2025, Alex Harrell, among the most highly reputed producers in the U.S., dropped an old-school grading scale, A to F, across his 6,000-acre operation and slashed almost half his ground, notifying 12 landlords in a three-week window. “I can’t speak to the rest of the country, but around here, generational growers are either cutting back, quitting, falling into Chapter 12, or grasping at straws.”

Spurred by crippling inputs, Harrell’s acreage drop is an alarming indication of an agriculture economy in dire straits. “There will be significant acres in my area that won’t be planted next year,” he says. “I’m seeing it with my own eyes in real time.”

“People don’t realize there was ground here in 2025 that didn’t get planted, but you can already see what’s developing for 2026. Guys are walking away.”

Down Comes the Ax
No fat left to trim. Nothing to burn but muscle. No way to outyield cold math.

“Something has to give when you go three years and more just spinning your wheels on net profit,” Harrell, 36, explains. “The numbers aren’t complicated. When fertilizer, chemical, and machinery costs go up 300% over a short span of time, everything is upside down, especially when commodities go in the tank.”

In 2025, Harrell grew 6,000 acres of corn, soybeans, cotton, and wheat in southwest Georgia’s Lee County. “Breaking even is bad enough in farming, but we’re all way below that around here. We are literally paying to farm—not getting paid to farm. Every year, it costs more to farm input-wise, and unless something changes with these retailers, I don’t see things changing. Based on that, I took a long look at my operation.”

“We’ve now got guys with all their land and equity burned up, and we’re seeing Chapter 12 bankruptcies every day,” Harrell says.

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

But what to do when there’s nothing left to cut on the farm? Cut the farm itself.

In November 2025, Harrell put his leased acreage under the microscope, under a seven-category lens subject to grades A through F:

1. How many miles away was the land?

2. How productive is the soil?

3. What was the water source (pond, creek, or well)?

4. How was irrigation powered (electric or diesel)?

5. On base acres, how productive was the farm related to PLC and ARC?

6. How did wildlife depredation factor for deer and wild pigs (and whether landowners allowed for shooting with deer permits)?

7. How much was rent?

Harrell axed any piece of ground that scored C through F in more than two categories. The reduction totaled 45% of his crop ground.

“It’s pretty straightforward. The only way I could figure out to make things work was to break down those farms individually and grade them on a scale. Then I dropped the ones that didn’t pass—and that included the very first irrigated farm I ever rented, and ground we’ve put 16, 17 crops on that I’ve been working for years. It was time to turn them loose. Like I said, that’s how bad the farm economy is around here. In some ways, I think the worst part is still to come, but people don’t realize that yet.”

No Bidding War
Harrell’s acreage chop may go deeper. “I’ve still got considerations to make on some farms. I’ve still got ground flirting on the line. I may have to make more calls to landlords.”

“We can grow most any variety of crop in the world right here,” Harrell describes, “but we’re at the point of seeing what happens when none of them will turn a profit due to the crazy input prices.”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

Rent on irrigated ground in Harrell’s region typically runs $275-330 per acre. How did his landlords react when he dropped acres?

“I had one that offered to drop rent a little bit, but I understand because they’re used to having 10 guys sitting there waiting to rent that land. In my opinion, I don’t think they understand the shifting dynamic of the farm economy. This time, people are not going to be beating their doors down. I’m not saying their particular acres won’t get rented, but there’s definitely not going to be a bidding war.”

“Even last year in 2025, there was irrigated land down here that didn’t get worked. In 2026, there’ll be even more. I can’t speak for anyplace else in the U.S., but in southwest Georgia, this is what we’re seeing in farmland, especially marginal ground. It’s already happening.

Yield Forfeit
Prior to Harrell’s acreage slash, his operation stretched 21 miles east, 30 miles west, 15 miles north, and 15 miles south.

“In some ways, I think the worst part is still to come, but people don’t realize that yet.”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

“I tightened the circle. I think my furthest farm is only going to be about 10 miles from me now. When you look at fuel, labor, time, and insurance involved in running up and down the road, that kills you whenever you put a tractor on a highway.

“Next, I’ve got to consider equipment and labor cuts to drop our insurance at least a little, at the same time keeping my eye on the fine line where I’ve got to keep enough acres to spread equipment over.”

Getting bigger and going longer is out—at least for Harrell. “Yeah, that’s how I used to think: Just go across more acres, make inputs cost less, and that’ll solve everything. Not anymore. What people come to see is that spreading too far in the Southeast means that nine times outta ten, you forfeit yield, because there’s no way to look after your crops like they need.”

Translated: Irrigation, weed control, repeated fungicide applications, labor logistics, and host of other management practices create a never-ending game of catch-up.

“There are Midwest farmers out there on big, big acres that do a fantastic job, but in the Southeast, we can’t get behind a single day on irrigation, or we lose yield,” Harrell notes. “Then factor in all the other aspects people don’t think about—like wildlife damage from deer and hogs, and countless spray trips across the field—and things get really complicated. I don’t think it’s an exaggeration to say a 15,000-acre operation in the Midwest compares to a 5,000-acre in the Southeast as far as demand on a farmer. That doesn’t mean anybody is better or worse, but it sure means things are very different.”

Walking Away
On Aug. 13, 2024, Alex Harrell fired the soybean shot heard round the farm world with a bin-busting 218.28 bushels per acre, shattering his own world record of 206.79 bushels set in 2023. Back to back, he grew the highest yielding soybeans in history.

“People don’t realize there was ground here in 2025 that didn’t get planted, but you can already see what’s developing for 2026. Guys are walking away.”

(Photo courtesy of Harrell Farms)

Harrell has a tight grasp on agronomics, crop management, and bottom-line financials. The extreme rub endured by growers over successive years is down to the bone, he warns.

“We can grow most any variety of crop in the world right here, but we’re at the point of seeing what happens when none of them will turn a profit due to the crazy input prices. We’ve now got guys with all their land and equity burned up, and we’re seeing Chapter 12 bankruptcies every day. Guys are quitting and walking away, and that eventually leads to land that doesn’t get picked up. That’s how terrible things have gotten, even if some people don’t see it yet. Cropland with no crop.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Outraged Farmers Blame Ag Monopolies as Catastrophic Collapse Looms

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

County Shuts Down 15-Yr-Old’s Bait Stand on Family Farm, Threatens Daily Fines

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing

Fertilizer Prices Under Fire: Monopoly or Markets to Blame?

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 17:11:25 GMT

As President Donald Trump demands a federal investigation into meatpackers for inflating beef prices , another battle over farm input costs is already heating up. Fertilizer, long one of the most volatile and least transparent costs in farming, is now drawing renewed scrutiny on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has reintroduced The Fertilizer Research Act, a bipartisan measure requiring USDA to study pricing and competition across the fertilizer market. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says that effort will go hand in hand with a Department of Justice probe into market concentration, promising to take a look at whether farmers truly have fair choices when buying the inputs that feed the nation.

“Pressure Cooker” on Capitol Hill

Two weeks ago on Capitol Hill, lawmakers took up the issue farmers have long demanded answers for: Why fertilizer, seed and input prices keep rising while competition keeps shrinking.

The Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearing, titled “Pressure Cooker: Competition Issues in the Seed and Fertilizer Industries, ” drew fiery testimony from across agriculture. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they’re hearing growing frustration from rural America.

Grassley tells the committee that farmers are being boxed in by consolidation at every level of the ag supply chain.

“Over the last 20 years, a few big companies have bought up many of the smaller seed and chemical businesses,” he says. “Those same companies now sell not just the seeds, but also the pesticides and digital farming tools that tell farmers what to plant and when. Because all these products and data systems are tied together, it’s hard for farmers to switch to a different brand.”

Sen. Cory Booker, D–N.J., delivers one of the sharpest warnings of the day.

“What’s happening in America is dire,” he says. “Congress must not just talk about the problems; we’ve got to fix them. Otherwise, American farming as we know it will be forever changed.”

Farmers Take a Stand

The goal of the hearing was to understand what’s driving record-high input prices and what, if anything, Congress can do to restore fairness and competition.

Of the six witnesses called that day, two were farmers who spoke candidly about what they’re experiencing on the ground.

Noah Coppess, a fifth-generation farmer from Cedar County, Iowa, tells senators the volatility of fertilizer pricing has turned crop planning into a gamble.

“If the market becomes too constricted, it is ultimately the farmer who loses,” Coppess says. “Fertilizer pricing has become very volatile, with wild swings of 25% to 50% from year to year. We’re asked to prepay for fertilizer three to six months before it’s applied to the soil and up to 14 months before harvest. Many contracts have a narrow window for application. If we miss it, the contract expires and the input is repriced higher or we’re charged monthly fees just to extend it.”

He says it’s forcing farmers to cut back in ways that threaten long-term soil health.

“Phosphate fertilizer has become a bare-minimum usage fertilizer on our farm because of the cost,” Coppess adds. “We simply can’t afford to apply it like we used to.”

Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland tells the committee the same pressures are weighing on his operation.

“Farmers are paying more than ever to grow their crops,” he says. “In just five years, seed prices have increased by 18%, fertilizer by 37%, pesticides by 25%, machinery by 23% and interest expense by 37%. Seed is a key cost consideration for farmers. Advancements in seed technology and pesticides have delivered real agronomic benefits — but at an added cost. Those costs are eating away at what little margin we have left.”

Industry Response: “A Perfect Storm”

But the hearing wasn’t just about farmers. Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), appeared before the committee to represent the industry’s view. Speaking later with “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory, Rosenbusch says the pressures farmers face are real but are largely the result of global dynamics, not domestic decisions.

“It’s a challenging time for growers,” Rosenbusch says. “In some cases, it’s even harder for the American farmer right now than it was a few years ago when markets exploded because at least, back then, commodity prices were high. Right now, it’s a perfect storm. Commodity prices are low, and input costs keep going up and up. Our message is simple: We need farmers to be successful because if they’re not, we don’t exist. But the factors driving this market are frankly outside of our control and, honestly, outside of this country’s control. Geopolitics is taking the headlines when it comes to supply and demand.”

He says Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s fertilizer export restrictions and global energy volatility are all rippling through fertilizer markets — forces far beyond the industry’s ability to manage.

“These are global supply and demand pressures,” Rosenbusch says. “When geopolitics dominate, prices react worldwide.”

Farmers Push Back: “Too Few Suppliers”

Farmers listening to the hearing say those global explanations don’t tell the whole story.

Mark Mueller, a farmer from Bremer County, Iowa, was supposed to testify on behalf of the Iowa Corn Growers but says he was disinvited, which he believes was because of Iowa Corn’s strong stance on lack of competition in the fertilizer market.

He still attended the hearing in person and says one statement from the fertilizer industry blew him away.

“The bottom line is that we don’t have many places to get our inputs from,” Mueller says. “I might have a half dozen retailers in my county, but when you go a little farther, they all get their phosphorus from one company, their potash from two companies, and their nitrogen from maybe three, and it’s the same problem in the seed industry.”

Mueller says one comment from the industry’s leadership stuck with him.

“The most disingenuous statement I heard came from the CEO of the Fertilizer Institute,” he says. “He said there are 20 unique companies supplying fertilizer inputs to the industry. That’s like General Motors saying they’re made up of four or five unique companies — Buick, Chevrolet, GMC and Cadillac. It’s all one company.”

“It’s Not a Monopoly — It’s an Oligopoly”

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, agrees the U.S. fertilizer market isn’t a monopoly, but he says it operates much like one.

“Here’s why I can’t be a politician,” Linville jokes. “No, there isn’t enough competition. It’s not a monopoly, but it’s definitely an oligopoly. When you look at nitrogen, three players control the vast majority of production. For phosphate, there’s one main producer. For potash, we’re highly dependent on imports. Almost all of it comes from Canada. So yes, we have some competition — but not enough.”

Linville says fewer players mean tighter supply chains, and that amplifies every global shock, from wars to tariffs.

“A lot of what’s happening is global supply and demand,” he says. “But the lack of competition doesn’t help. Tariffs, countervailing duties and even the fear of new sanctions on Russia are inflating prices that global trade already pushes higher.”

Concerns Potential Government Trade Aid Payments Further Inflate Fertilizer Prices

There’s yet another wildcard this year: the potential for the White House to release tariff aid payments. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden confirmed on AgriTalk the agency is preparing to roll out $12 billion in trade aid once the government reopens.

Linville says the potential for new government aid has some unintended consequences for the fertilizer market.

“Unfortunately, no,” Linville says when asked if fertilizer prices might ease if aid payments don’t go out. “If the payments come out, I’m afraid it’s gonna boost fertilizer prices. It doesn’t change the supply and demand for most of these products, but it does change the timing, and timing is everything.”

Linville says the fertilizer market is as much about when farmers buy as it is about how much they buy. Injecting fresh cash into the market at once could cause a surge in demand that suppliers can’t absorb smoothly.

“If there’s a big fat check that goes into the farmer’s pockets and that gets spent on fertilizer, and you pull all that demand into one period, fertilizer is going to see its prices boosted as a result,” he adds. “We saw that the last time the checks went out.”

Read More: Tariff Aid Payments Could Backfire, Boosting Fertilizer Prices, Analyst Warns

Little Hope for Price Relief

When asked whether fertilizer prices could ease before spring, Linville doesn’t sugarcoat it.

“You know me — I’m never going to deal in guarantees,” he says. “I’m not going to say prices can’t fall between now and spring, but the second I do, the market will humble me again. We’ve got some improvements: China’s exporting a little more, Russia’s exporting more, there’s more peace in the Middle East, but we still have production problems in Europe, and China’s slowing exports again. Phosphate exports are being cut in half this year, and the world doesn’t have anyone ready to fill that gap. So could prices fall? Yes. But I’m not holding my breath.”

Stockpiling Isn’t a Solution

When asked on “AgriTalk” whether stopping exports and stockpiling product domestically could help ease prices, Rosenbusch says the U.S. doesn’t have that capability.

“Even if we wanted to take a page out of China’s book and stop exports, we couldn’t,” he says. “We still have to import 40% of our phosphates. We don’t have the infrastructure to stockpile fertilizer in this country. It just doesn’t exist.”

A Critical Step Forward

In what’s being hailed as a small but meaningful win for the U.S. farm economy, the Trump administration recently added phosphate and potash to the list of 10 minerals deemed critical to national security. The designation could help accelerate mining permits and spur new domestic investment — something both industry and lawmakers say is badly needed.

But for farmers testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the message was clear: They can’t wait years for market reform.

“Fertilizer is the biggest pain point on farms today,” Coppess says. “We need change, and we need it soon.”

Tariff Aid Payments Could Backfire, Boosting Fertilizer Prices, Analyst Warns

Thu, 06 Nov 2025 19:16:44 GMT

Farmers are fully immersed in fall fertilizer application season. While there was talk of some farmers coming back, demand has surprisingly stayed relatively stable. With fertilizer prices remaining elevated, StoneX fertilizer expert says there’s little relief in sight. Despite speculation USDA and the White House could issue additional tariff aid payments to offset ongoing trade and input challenges, one fertilizer expert says that cash could actually trigger another round of price inflation.

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden confirmed on AgriTalk the agency is preparing to roll out $12 billion in trade aid once the government reopens.

“Until the government re-opens, we don’t have appropriations, and there’s no money to be had, whether you’re talking about recipients of our SNAP program or you’re talking about farmers who may need additional assistance for a bridge to get to next year,” Vaden told Chip Flory on “ AgriTalk .”

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX, says the potential for new government aid has some unintended consequences for the fertilizer market.

“Unfortunately, no,” Linville says when asked if fertilizer prices might ease if aid payments don’t go out. “If the payments come out, I’m afraid it’s gonna boost fertilizer prices. It doesn’t change the supply and demand for most of these products, but it does change the timing, and timing is everything.”

Linville says the fertilizer market is as much about when farmers buy as it is about how much they buy. Injecting fresh cash into the market at once could cause a surge in demand that suppliers can’t absorb smoothly.

“If there’s a big fat check that goes into the farmer’s pockets and that gets spent on fertilizer, and you pull all that demand into one period, fertilizer is going to see its prices boosted as a result,” he adds. “We saw that the last time the checks went out.”

Without that extra aid money, Linville expects fertilizer prices to stay tied to broader global forces such as supply disruptions, production bottlenecks and logistical constraints.

“If not, I think we fall back to the global S&D — the production problems and supply problems — and prices probably hold tight,” he says. “Maybe it causes some people to back off. But look, we’re in November. It’s fertilizer time. There’s stuff moving whether we think it is or not.”

He adds that StoneX is already seeing stronger-than-expected activity at the farm level this fall.

“We’re hearing from our people in the fields — demand is better than we expected,” Linville says. “I don’t think we see anything short term that causes prices to go down. I’m more afraid of the upside.”

Despite Tight Margins, Farmers Aren’t Cutting Fertilizer Use

After two years of soaring fertilizer costs, some analysts expected farmers to trim back their nutrient applications this fall. But according to Linville, that’s not happening — at least not on a large scale.

“Phosphate’s the greatest example,” he says. “It’s exorbitantly high priced — versus grains, versus itself. Through the summer and early fall, the conversation at the farm gate was, ‘I’m cutting my phosphate application. It’s too expensive.’ And that was absolutely a rational thought.”

But harvest results are changing those plans. Many farmers are posting big yields, which means big nutrient removal, and that creates a dilemma.

“The problem is big yields mean big nutrient removal,” Linville explains. “A lot of guys are finishing harvest saying, ‘I didn’t want to put the phosphate on, but my yields were huge. I know what I took off the field, and I’ve got to replace it.’”

Cutting back on phosphorus might save $10 an acre today, he said, but it could cost much more in lost yield potential next year.

“You can save $5 or $10 an acre, but if that costs you 5 bu. or 10 bu. next year, that’s a lot more than $10,” Linville says. “Farmers don’t feel good about it, but they know what they removed. If they want to grow a crop next year and not limit their potential, they’ve got to replace those nutrients.”

The Global Fertilizer Picture: Tight Supply and Geopolitical Wild Cards

Looking ahead to spring, Linville says the odds of a major fertilizer price drop are slim. While some improvements have occurred in global nitrogen trade — including more exports from China and Russia — problems remain in other parts of the world.

“I’m never going to deal in guarantees,” Linville says. “The second I do, the market will humble me again, but it’s going to be very difficult [for prices to fall].”

He notes several ongoing challenges:

Production issues in Europe due to high natural gas costs
China’s export restrictions, as the country prioritizes domestic needs
Global logistics still playing catch-up after years of disruption

“China is going to cut their phosphate exports in half this year to keep tons at home,” he says. “And the world doesn’t have someone else ready to fill that gap.”

That creates a tricky environment for farmers trying to decide whether to book fertilizer now or wait.

“Could there be a chance prices come down? Yes,” Linville says, “but I’m not holding my breath. It would take a lot of things coming together at once.”

Geopolitics Loom Large Over Fertilizer Markets

The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains one of the biggest wild cards for fertilizer prices, especially for nitrogen. Russia is a major global supplier of urea, ammonia and other key fertilizer products. Any change in the geopolitical landscape could quickly ripple through global prices.

“One of my biggest bear points on nitrogen right now is peace between Russia and Ukraine,” Linville says. “Do we really want to make our purchasing decisions because we think we can outguess when that’s going to happen? It makes it very, very hard.”

Until that situation stabilizes, Linville says fertilizer markets will remain volatile — and farmers will need to balance risk management with crop needs.

Unexpected Demand Jump on Big Yields?

E
ven after months of warnings about fertilizer cutbacks, Linville says the North American market may be facing a surprise twist: demand is rebounding, and yields are a big reason why.

“The story all summer and fall was about major cutbacks — especially on phosphate,” Linville says. “Prices were extremely high, margins were tight, and farmers needed to make cuts somewhere. Phosphate was at the front of that line.”

But after harvest, that tone started to shift. Across the Corn Belt and Plains, strong yields are forcing a new conversation. Big crops don’t just mean full bins — they mean major nutrient removal, and that’s something growers can’t ignore for long.

“Yields are looking very good out there,” Linville explains. “And large yields mean large nutrient removal. Farmers who thought they could skip an application are now realizing if they cut too hard, it could cost them in 2026 yield potential.”He says that shift in mindset is already echoing through the market.

“We’re hearing a growing chorus of people surprised by phosphate demand,” he says. “Farmers are reluctantly stepping back in and reapplying product. They don’t want to, but they know they have to — and that’s increasing demand.”

Tight Supply Adds Fuel to the Fire

The problem, Linville warns, is that supply hasn’t improved much since last year. Imports remain limited by tariffs and duties on the four largest phosphate-exporting nations in the world, and domestic production has struggled to fill the gap.

“Imports have been relatively poor because of tariffs and duties, and domestic production rates have been extremely poor,” Linville says. “That leaves North America very tight on supplies. That’s why prices haven’t fallen much, even though everyone expected demand destruction.”

If demand continues to reappear faster than expected, the fertilizer market could quickly tighten again.

“If that demand suddenly comes back, we’ve got two big problems,” Linville cautions. “First, values will likely rise. And second, supplies may be very hard to find.”

In short, the fertilizer market may be setting up for another round of price pressure — not because of new government policies or global shocks, but because of something much closer to home: better-than-expected yields and the nutrients they’ve taken out of the soil.

Farmer Takeaways: Timing and Strategy Matter

For farmers staring at another high-cost input season, Linville’s advice centers on timing and discipline.

Watch the market, but don’t assume prices will fall
Work with your retailer or co-op early to secure product availability
Prioritize nutrient replacement based on yield removal and soil tests
Stay flexible — global supply disruptions can swing prices quickly

“Farmers don’t have to buy everything at once,” Linville says. “Spread purchases where it makes sense, and keep communication open with suppliers. The worst-case scenario is being forced to buy when everyone else is.”

Even without new government aid, fertilizer prices are likely to remain firm through spring. But if additional payments are issued, they could give the market fresh momentum, pushing prices even higher.

For now, Linville says it’s a season for patience and caution, not panic.

“Fertilizer is going to stay front and center,” he says. “There’s still opportunity, but it’s not an easy market. Timing, and discipline, will make all the difference this year.”

Bayer Ends Its Farmer-Facing Rebate Program

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:26:51 GMT

Per a Bayer spokesperson: “Bayer Crop Science has announced that all Bayer PLUS Rewards programs will conclude following the 2025 Market Year. The program will officially end on April 30, 2026, after the close of the final redemption period.”

Bayer Plus Rewards began in 2019 for products used in 2020.

“Over the last 5 years, Bayer PLUS Rewards has played a significant role in supporting loyal Bayer customers. However, we are committed to listening and responding to the changing needs of its customers. As markets become increasingly challenging, growers need clearer and more transparent pricing to help make informed business decisions,” the statement continued.

Rewards were calculated based on acreage or volume. Adding more products increases the reward value. After two years in place, the program had more than 1,000 growers in the retail portal.

Bayer has been undergoing a multi-year reorganization in its business model and organizational structure across all business divisions. Known as Dynamic Shared Ownership, it’s been implemented in Crop Science teams for the past year in how they go-to-market.

“We determined it was time to move away from a traditional loyalty/incentive program and invest time and funds into bettering the operations of growers and retail partners aligned with support from Bayer’s field sales organization to provide resources, agronomic information and local market support,” the statement concluded.

Many such programs emerged around the same time as Bayer’s program including, Corteva, Valent, FMC. As previously reported by The Scoop, the goal was promote customer loyalty. After the first introduction, there was a lot of industry anticipation of how the loyalty/bundling programs would influence purchase behavior.

At first, many retailers voiced concerns about the time and effort to administer the programs for the supplier. However, after a couple of years that sentiment improved, as reported by Stratus Research.

Stratus also found farmers who participate in grower programs are likely to buy one additional product from the branded portfolio.

With Corteva’s recent announcement of splitting its crop protection and seed divisions, the future of its TruChoice program is unknown.

Alltech Breaks Ground on Domestic Expansion for Biofertilizer Production

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 16:13:51 GMT

Earlier this month, Alltech Crop Science broke ground on a new 15,000 square foot facility that will expand its manufacturing at the company’s corporate headquarters in Nicholasville, Kentucky. The $4.6 million project was supported by a $2.34 million grant from the USDA Fertilizer Production Expansion Program (FPEP).

FPEP grants are awarded to expand the domestic manufacturing and processing of fertilizer and nutrient alternatives and their availability. You can view the awarded FPEP grants here.

This is Alltech’s first U.S. manufacturing plant focused solely on producing crop science products, and it’s expected to produce around 66,000 gallons of product a month.

Dr. Steve Borst, Alltech crop science vice president, says the project will be complete in the next five years, per the grant term.

“This expansion project will enable us to expand the current volumes that we are doing here, as well as support new innovations, new technologies we will be launching in the near future,” Borst says.

(Alltech)

Alltech started its crop science business over 30 years ago. In addition to U.S. production, the company also makes its products in Brazil and Spain.

“This project provides us the opportunity to really focus on domestically providing domestic jobs here and local manufacturing,” he says. “A lot of our inputs are customizable in how we provide them to our customers, so if we have a change in the market, having a domestic footprint will allow us to pivot and provide a direct solution to combat that challenge.”

Borst says Alltech sees biologicals, including biofertilizers, as a growth market.

“It has been exciting to see a focus on how promoting quality is promoting the opportunity to decrease dependency on synthetic inputs,” Borst says. “In the evolution of the market over the last 10 years, we’ve found how biological fit into overall programs.”

Borst explains Alltech’s product portfolio starts with a fermentation process–bacteria, yeast, or fungi.

“That’s our core competency. All of our technologies stem from a microbial fermentation process,” he says.

The Nicholasville expansion will result in production of all of Alltech’s crop science products.

Alltech’s biofertilizer is based on an amino acid technology which provides increased nutrient uptake.

Borst says the company recently launched a bionematicide in Brazil, and that along with other biopesticides will be developed for regulatory approval for use in the U.S.

Alltech Crop Science provides white labeled products for retail and distribution, and Borst says another benefit to the business in this expansion will be able to produce more technologies for those white labeled lines as well.

Nebraska Farmer Calls Out Agriculture Machinery Companies Over High Prices

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 11:46:13 GMT

The farm machinery math ain’t mathin’ for Mike Hynek.

Across a 50-plus-year career in the fields of extreme southcentral Nebraska, Hynek contends the gap between agribusiness and common farmers has never been greater.

“Fertilizer, chemicals, and seed creeped up over 20 years, but the past five years prices have been downright crazy, and maybe the most frustrating of all is agriculture equipment,” he says. “I’m repeating what you’ll hear from any farmer on the turn row, anywhere in the country: The big machinery companies have lost sight of us.”

Farmer hide is as hard as hickory. However, peel off a thin layer, year over year, and eventually thick skin wears to bone. “I’m speaking up about a damn shame,” Hynek adds. “We’re being driven to the breaking point.”

Dirt and Metal
Standing in his farm shop, tucked in a Cornhusker pocket just above the Kansas line, Hynek, 68, points at a combine part. “That one? It’ll cost you about three times more than five years ago.”

He next picks up a tractor part: “Costs twice what it did five years ago. But we’re expected to accept it like it’s a natural increase. If you work in the agriculture chain at any level, and you think these prices are genuinely reasonable, I’d like to ask a question, ‘Are you OK with them going even higher?’”

Robust competition, Hynek claims, exists only at the farmer level.

(Photo courtesy of Hynek Construction)

Eleven tractors, most wearing plenty of age, along with an assortment of other machines, are scattered across Hynek’s operation. Located in the rolling hills of Webster County, just outside Guide Rock, he grows alfalfa, corn, and soybeans (two-thirds dryland), along with brome hay and prairie hay, and runs a cow-calf operation, and markets Angus-Wagyu cross beef.

Hynek knows business—both dirt and metal. He oversees Hynek Construction, specializing in grain bin erection across the Plains and Midwest, but reaching into Kentucky and Washington state. In five of the past seven years, Hynek has been the top dealer of Conrad American/Eaton bins in the United States.

Want to track down Hynek? Expect to find him in his fields—or on the road. “I travel a lot, and I’m constantly with farmers that aren’t my immediate neighbors, so I hear perspective from all over. Everybody, whether local or distant, is pissed at the big farm machinery corporations and dealerships. Some guys are loud about it and some are quiet, but they’re all tired and turned off.”

“Frankly, I can’t imagine how pissed everyone would be at me if I ran my grain bin construction the same way.”

Plain Truth?
In spring 2025, Hynek needed a new combine draper head. He checked prices on both sides of the state line with local dealers, and got the same answer from management. No sale.

“How can anyone look a farmer in the face and say these equipment and parts prices are fair-minded?” Hynek asks.

(Photo courtesy of Hynek Construction)

“Nebraska and Kansas, didn’t matter. I was told, over and over, ‘We are not allowed to sell you a draper head.’ They said I had to buy from my designated local dealership.’”

“Here’s what’s going on: One company bought the competition. They bought all the little stores, 20 or 30 or who knows how many, in my region and now they charge whatever they want. They won’t even tell me their shop rate for work, but I would guess it’s close to $250-270 per hour. Farmers pay it because there’s nowhere else to go, and because there are digital parts of the machinery that you simply can’t fix without’em.”

Robust competition, he claims, exists only at the farmer level. “Everyone above us has moved to unprecedented levels of consolidation and passes down costs. That’s not controversial; that’s just plain truth.”

Altar of the Temporary
At five years old, Hynek began raking hay with a Ford 8N. By sixth grade, he was a man-child in the rows, working alongside adult labor. Across a career split between farming and construction, including survival during the 1980s agriculture wreck, Hynek insists the position of farmers in relation to new machinery has never been weaker.

“If you work in the agriculture chain at any level,” Hynek asks, “and you think these prices are genuinely reasonable, I’d like to ask a question, ‘Are you OK with them going even higher?’”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

“I love the products and technology, but I’m calling a spade a spade. I see the nice profit lines of the big companies, while I see farmers terribly struggling, especially the young guys. These families are being strangled by unreasonable prices. Do the big corporations not see it? Eventually, the big names will regret it because they’ll have fewer people to buy their vehicles.”

From Hynek’s vantage point, agribusiness is sacrificing the permanent on the altar of the temporary.

“I’m not upset with the guys who turn a wrench at any of these companies or some of the great individuals working at the dealerships. I’m upset with the brass and the boardrooms who control the prices. They treat farmers like numbers, sending their lobbyists to Washington, D.C., for bailout money, so we can eventually pay them. Where are the politicians, agriculture media, and associations? How can anyone—an executive, economist, or so-called expert—look a farmer in the face and say these equipment and parts prices are fair-minded?”

Tariffs? Trade wars? Covid? Inflation? Market disruption? All of the above and more? They hold partial blame, Hynek says, but are not the root cause.

“It’s simple, I believe. Whether the farm economy is good or bad, certain profit quotas must be hit. It all passes along the chain to the last guy standing in line: a farmer. It always has. But now it drops down with the extra weight of consolidation.”

Next Generation?
In his early twenties, Hynek clawed for a toehold in agriculture. No equipment. No farming relatives for support. He taught high school ag for seven years, saving $6,000 to launch a solo farming career.

“It was hard, hard work, but it was possible,” he recalls. “But now? The starting hole is so deep for a young guy—and getting deeper.”

“I’m established. I’m one of the fortunate ones. I’m going to make it. But what about our next generation? How does a young guy stay in or start at these equipment prices? The machinery corporates are not helping, and we’ve all been too quiet for too long.”

Which color does Hynek blame? The rainbow.

“If I charge a farmer too much for a grain bin, he will go down the road and hire someone else. That’s a healthy balance for everyone. Instead, in the ag equipment sector, all the colors are letting us down. I know that from being on operations across the country.”

Mike Hynek, with Kysen in his shadow, grows alfalfa, corn, and soybeans, along with Brome hay and prairie hay, and runs a cow-calf operation, and markets Angus-Wagyu cross beef.

(Photo courtesy of Hynek Construction)

Farmer struggles in Arkansas and Mississippi have captured recent headlines. Nebraska growers are in the same rut, Hynek asserts. “I know of a bank pulling the rug on four farmers. If the big bailout money doesn’t come, there’ll be at least eight more. That’s just one small bank in southern Nebraska.”

Where to begin to find a solution? The numbers, Hynek advocates. “We need to start with our lawmakers asking the corporates to explain the steady price creep over the last 20 years and explain the big price climb over the past five years.”

“According to what we’re told by the companies and giant dealerships, everyone in the agriculture chain is suffering. Kinda strange, because I don’t hear about anyone going bankrupt but farmers.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Outraged Farmers Blame Ag Monopolies as Catastrophic Collapse Looms

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

County Shuts Down 15-Yr-Old’s Bait Stand on Family Farm, Threatens Daily Fines

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing

Farmer Unearths Lost Treasure, Solves WW2 Mystery

First-Generation Farmers Set for Day of Reckoning as Agriculture Crisis Deepens?

Tue, 30 Sep 2025 11:53:26 GMT

How tough is the economy is for American farmers? Watch the canary in the coalmine: first-generation producers.

“The absolute most vulnerable farmers right now are the first-generation guys who operate on an old model,” says producer Adam Lasch. “If you’re all in on two crops, I believe you know the wolf is at the door. And he is.”

Lasch, a first-generation Wisconsin farmer, offers a candid assessment of the current agricultural plight, pointing the bone at cause, effect and opportunity.

“I don’t know which way this thing is gonna go,” he adds, “but we’re about to hit a come-to-Jesus moment.”

The Line Always Goes Up
In the gentle hills of Walworth County, Wis., a jump north of the Illinois line, Lasch , 40, runs a highly diversified first-generation livestock and row crop farm alongside his wife, Betsy, and their two sons, Boone and Rhett. By necessity, Lasch keeps a finger in a host of agriculture pies.

His baseline: We don’t have to make $100,000 on one thing. We can make $1,000 on 100 things.

“I have a unique perspective, because when I got started I never got pigeonholed in any one enterprise,” Lasch says. “I was always behind in everything, so I had to figure out how to see the layout of the land. I couldn’t ride $7 corn, and I couldn’t fit in a multigenerational system. There was one path for me: Make a new system and refine it nonstop.”

“Survive now and prepare for later … there’s going to be genuine opportunity and lots of it,” Lasch says.

(Photo by Lasch Livestock & Land Solutions)

Lasch doesn’t shy from stirring the pot over a multiyear farm crisis.

“A long-term agriculture fix means USDA should stop distorting the grain market,” he says. “Quit picking grain farmers over everybody else. That is the base layer in ag right now that everyone pays for. The current ag system is a monolith, and it’s geared toward corn and soybean production in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. All over the country, we’ve distorted the natural advantage of every acre by trying to make them all line up under the same standard.”

The wheels are turning on major upheaval, Lasch posits. “Let’s say you are 65. What have you learned over the past 25 to 30 years? That the line always goes up; that things only appreciate. The land you bought for $2,000 an acre in the late 90s is now worth four times that. That’s over, in my opinion. A rollover is happening as we speak, but that reality hasn’t hit everybody just yet. It will.”

Vinegar and Honey
More American farmers, 1.3 million, are over 65 than those under 55. The telltale statistic might suggest a demographic day of reckoning.

The eventual exit of 65-plus farmers will herald a massive transfer of wealth, possibly the biggest in farming history, Lasch contends: “Get ready. It’ll be a tsunami of change, and there’s no stopping it.”

Lasch, 40, runs a highly diversified first-generation livestock and row crop farm.

(Photo by Lasch Livestock & Land Solutions)

If so, who will buy the assets, and how will they be transferred?

The tea leaves haven’t settled.

“I struggle with an answer,” Lasch admits. “Does the government keep these policies in place to keep asset prices elevated? Because that puts you on a different path than if the asset prices fall. If asset prices maintain high, it’ll be big banks and outside investors, because they know there’ll be a floor under their investment. If asset prices fall across the board, there’s a good chance you will see it getting traded to young guys looking to get in.”

Lasch doesn’t mince words. At present, agriculture is a no-go zone for first-generation farmers. Simply, new guys are exit liquidity for old guys.

“The Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) is a recipe to keep spinning our wheels,” Lasch says. “And bailout money that comes this winter is a geriatric retirement payment.”

Lasch says first-generation farmers are canaries in the coalmine. Photo by Lasch Livestock & Land Solutions

(Photo by Lasch Livestock & Land Solutions)

“I’m not optimistic in the short-term because the OBBB codified all the market distortions that led us to this point,” Lasch adds. “The way demographics currently are, older farmers will further be insulated from normal market signals, meaning they will continue to put a floor under land and input prices because they have the equity, risk mitigation and financial resources that the young do not.”

Despite a heavy lashing of vinegar, Lasch concludes with honey.

“There’s prolonged pain to come, and it’s gonna be ugly,” he says. “Survive now and prepare for later because once the dust settles, and I believe that starts in four to five years, there’s going to be genuine opportunity and lots of it.”

Unshakable
In the present, how can an enterprising young producer squeeze success from the current downturn? Lasch digs in on four points of emphasis:

1. Cut back on living expenses to pay down the debt required to get started. “Most people aren’t willing to be as extreme as we have.”

2. Get creative with building or fixing lower-value equipment purchased relatively cheaply. “Make do. There are deals to be had.”

3. Grit. Work harder than everyone else and then some. There is a path for the frugal. “Our industry promotion groups like to show the fifth-generation family standing in front of a shiny multimillion-dollar piece of equipment or a drone shot of a gigantic grain setup because it somehow shows the success of the policies they promote. I’m not saying they haven’t worked hard to get where they are, but the things that made them successful will be different going forward. We should be highlighting the young guy underneath the shade tree with his $8,000 chore tractor getting its starter replaced, because he doesn’t have a $500,000 new shop.”

4. Unshakable faith in God. “I have no idea how everything worked out as it has, but we’re nothing without him.”

In conclusion, Lasch punctuates his position on the effort required of young farmers.

“An attitude of immense strength to make things work while everyone else is resting on their laurels and has gotten lazy because of asset appreciation, decades of equity and favorable ag policies paving the way,” he says. “The young people are out there; let’s find them and give them a hand-up, not just a handout.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing

Sisters of Farm Fraud: How 4 Siblings Fleeced USDA for $10M

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Farmer Unearths Lost Treasure, Solves WW2 Mystery

Ag Lender Warns Farm Finances Under Greatest Stress Since the 1980s

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 16:12:17 GMT

As combines chew through this year’s crops, farmers are faced with a bleak reality: this crop they’re harvesting is coming at a steep financial loss. And for some, this marks the fourth year in a row they won’t make any money.

“What the general public doesn’t realize is these things have not just occurred over the last six months. This started in 2021 and 2022,” says Tommy Young, who farms in Newport, Ark. “In our particular situation, we started noticing shortfalls in 2021 and 2022 simply because of the input costs.”

That worry and concern took center stage and was at the heart of a meeting in Brookeland, Ark., earlier this month. A meeting that was supposed to be just a handful of farmers at a local bank turned into more of a movement. And for farmers, there was one resounding message: We need help, and we need it now.

“I think when everyone, other farmers, started seeing how many farmers showed up, it changed the overall dynamic of the meeting. It made it become emotional. It made it become more than reverence, from the standpoint that it made me feel personally that I’ve not done anything wrong,” Young says.

‘It Felt Just Like a Funeral’

In the middle of harvest, farmers from across Arkansas, southern Missouri and Tennessee parked their combines to attend the meeting. Young says as he parked his vehicle and saw trucks lining the road and lines of people standing outside to get in, the somber mood became very real.

“It felt just like a funeral,” Young says. “And then when we got inside, you didn’t see signs being held up. You didn’t hear screaming or any kind of thing like that. You saw people that were genuinely concerned about the industry as a whole.”

Young says during that meeting, the frustration farmers voiced came down to three main concerns within the ag economy:

Record-high input costs
Low commodity prices
The loss of key export markets

It’s those three factors fueling a perfect storm, but farmers are considerably concerned about the record-high input costs and what’s fueling those in agriculture.

“All we can do is hope for the best, be as efficient as we possibly can be with what we’re doing, and then thinking things would change. Well, they have not changed. They’ve gotten worse,” Young says.

Ag Lender Says Farmers Are Seeing the Most Financial Stress Since the 1980s

Greg Cole is president and CEO of AgHeritage Farm Credit Services, which serves roughly 6,700 members across 24 counties in Arkansas. Cole started in ag lending in 1984, and he says as Arkansas farmers stare at loss on every crop they grow, it’s not a repeat of the 1980s, but it’s eerily similar.

“I can tell you this, this is the most stress I’ve seen since the ‘80s when you come to farm profitability, i.e. farmers losing money,” Cole says. “One positive we have now compared to the ‘80s is land values. Our land values are still positive, which gives some lendable equity —unlike in the 80s, when I started my career, when U.S. farmland prices plummeted in some areas up to 60%.”

With a drastic drop in commodity prices, but input prices still record or near-record high, Cole says farmers in Arkansas, specifically, have been eroding balance sheets for four straight years.

“We started seeing losses in ’22 when 40% of our producers lost money,” Cole says. “In ’23, about 50% lost money. And then last year, in ’24, 70% lost money, with the average loss of about $150 an acre. And that’s after they received about a $50 per acre ECAP payments. Today, we’re looking at where we stand now. We could have a similar level of losses in ‘25 that we had in ‘24. Even though in ’24, we had very strong yields. But now we have weaker yields.”

As mounting debt shows up on the balance sheets, Cole says there are two types of farmers seeing the most severe financial strain.

“The ones who rent most of the land, especially if they pay on the higher end of rent. And here in the Mississippi Delta, most farmers who have a lot of acres rent most of their ground,” Cole says. “And then young, beginning farmers who didn’t have the opportunity to build up a lot of equity. Those are the ones that have occurred these multiple year losses where their balance sheet debt has swollen to a level that’s hard to service a debt when you add the interest rate cost on top of it.”

Farmers On the Brink of Being Forced Out of Farming

Cole says in talking to farm credit colleagues from across the country, next to the central valley of California, farmers in the Mississippi region are in the most severe shape.

“There were 62 farm equipment sales in eastern Arkansas this past winter,” Cole says. “That’s the most I can recall, anecdotally speaking, than any time in my career since the 1980s. And I think what we’re looking at now is at least that many or more. It could be double that if we don’t get major intervention in the markets or an intervention from D.C.

Cole continues: “Really, what we need is another ad hoc payment, maybe in a form of an MFP-type payment that we received back in Covid. But we need some major help here, or we’re going to have a lot less farmers in 2026 and 2027.”

It’s a desperate plea across agriculture. Without some type of market or government intervention, some could be forced out of farming this year — similar to what happened in the 1980s.

“My dad, in 1978, went to Washington D.C., stood on the capitol and was there during that time when they drove tractors to D.C.,” Young says. “It was the same thing in Brookeland, Arkansas. And if this thing continues, I think it will go nationwide because we’ve got to get through this. And the president and congress have got to make it to where we have good markets, sustainable markets and markets that we can depend on long term.”

Largest Drop in Crop Cash Receipts Ever

It’s not just farmers in the Delta seeing the financial strain. Ag economist John Newton tells AgDay’s Michelle Rook that even though the overall net farm income picture from USDA looks strong, it’s a very different situation when you take out livestock and just look at crops.

“If you look at the data, crop cash receipts over the last three years have declined by $71 billion,” says Newton, executive head of Terrain. “When adjusted for inflation, that matches the largest decline that we’ve seen in history. So, the pressure in the crop space is very real.”

NCGA and ASA Also Sounding the Alarm

National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is also sounding the alarm , saying agriculture is nearing a financial crisis. According to a new study released by NCGA, nearly half (46%) of U.S. farmers believe we are on the brink of a farm crisis, and 65% are more concerned now about their farm financials than a year ago.

American Soybean Association (ASA)CEO Stephen Censky also sees and hears the growing concern among farmers.

“It’s tough, and I can hear it in the stress in our members’ voices Our members and our board of directors are really concerned right now,” Censky says. “Some say if things don’t turn around, if we don’t get markets back or if we get economic assistance — which is not our first choice — this could be their last year in farming. That’s pretty scary.”

Censky says this time in agriculture is more serious than the last trade war simply because crop prices are lower than they were in 2018, and input prices are significantly higher.

“I will say while those programs we had, the market facilitation payments (MFP), they help keep folks in business. They stop the blood loss. They help farmers survive until the next year, but it’s not a replacement for markets,” Censky says. “And no farmer wants to be dependent on getting his or her income from the government, or from the mailbox, rather than from the marketplace.”

Farmers are also voicing frustration lately that when government assistance is given, they are simply a pass-through. The payments keep input prices elevated, and also seem to prop up high land values.

“One of the things is that when you provide economic assistance or any kind of government payments, whether that is through the reference prices and the ARC and PLC programs under the farm programs, yes, that helps. It helps keep farmers in business and helps them pay the bills. But longer term, any form of government assistance like that gets capitalized into land rents and land values, and that has consequences as well for farmers,” Censky says.

Yet, Censky was part of the Trump administration. He served as the United States Deputy Secretary of Agriculture from 2017 through 2020. That was also during the first trade war with China, and he knows the loss of the Chinese market is completely out of farmers’ control.

“We have not been publicly calling for another MFP-type program. Our priority has been ‘Let’s get a deal with China on soybeans’, because having that market is what soybean farmers want,” Censky says. “And by restoring and getting rid of the retaliatory tariffs, and ideally getting some purchase commitments from China, would be like we did under the Phase One trade deal with China. That would be great. And that also puts a lid on, or a damper on, Brazilian expansion, which has long-term benefits for the U.S. soybean industry as well.”

Shell-Shock Fertilizer Prices Leave Farmers, Politicians Asking What Can Be Done

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 15:23:55 GMT

While fertilizer prices aren’t at historic highs, relative to crop prices, the quotes farmers are receiving this fall are making them think twice before contracting their inputs for the 2026.

“We are six weeks from November, the time for fall applications,” says Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX. “We are at the zero hour. Harvest is right now. It’s time to make decisions about what we are or are not going to do.”

He says supply is driving prices. The urgency Linville projects is underscored by the reality of things are unlikely to change for the rest of the fall season relative to fall fertilizer pricing. He lays out a scenario where is a deal is struck today, and imported fertilizer is loaded on a ship in the Middle East or China, it’s four weeks until it reaches our ports. Then it’s another four weeks to get it to the Midwest.

“At this point, there’s not enough time to make a difference,” he says.

So what fertilizer product pricing may be causing the most angst?

According to a USDA report released last week , U.S. production could be sufficient to meet domestic demand for phosphate and most of the nitrogen. However, the U.S. is dependent on imports of potash.

Focusing on fall-applied nitrogen products, Linville says the anhydrous supply is ‘okay.’ One area he’s watching is the import supply from Trinidad and Tobago, which is currently having a 15% tariff applied.

“They can ship that product anywhere around the world,” Linville says. “They don’t need to come to the U.S., so there’s a little question mark there.”

With potash, the Trump administration trade policies and ag groups’ work to have potash listed as a critical mineral (and therefore exempt to tariffs) have helped solidify and keep steady those prices.

The biggest macronutrient to watch is phosphate.

“We’re in very bad shape,” Linville says. “Phosphate is in dire straits. And honestly, it needs demand destruction this fall to rebalance the supply and demand. These high prices are actively trying to kill demand.”

As Linville explains, five countries control about 90% of global phosphate supply. China is the largest exporter—and it used to export up to 10 million tons a year. However, that has been slashed in half to only 4.5 million tons for 2025.

“We don’t have excess production around the world to make up the difference,” Linville says.

In the U.S., Moroccan imports of phosphates have countervailing duties.

According to the U.S. Geological Survey (2022), the United States has 1 billion metric tons in phosphate rock reserves. Phosphate production in the U.S. was 25 million tons in 2006, but it has been on the decline since then. In 2022, U.S. production was less than 15 million tons.

“Our own production has been suffering since 2021 [due to natural disaster, namely hurricanes] and this quarter, we’re running at a 58% operating rate. It’s also due to environmental policies,” Linville says.

Calls for greater transparency.
A new bill, The Fertilizer Research Act , has been introduced by Senator Joni Ernst (R-Iowa) Senator Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa), Senator Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.), and Senator Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.). This legislation would requires USDA to do a study on fertilizer market competition and pricing.

“Fertilizer is an essential tool our farmers rely on to maintain healthy soil and improve crop yields,” said Senator Ernst in a press release. “I’m working hard to drive down fertilizer costs and make life more affordable for both farmers and consumers. By gaining a better understanding of the fertilizer industry, this research will provide the foundational knowledge needed to give farmers much needed clarity and certainty as harvest approaches.”

If passed, USDA Secretary would consult the Economic Research Service to issue a report including:

A description of impacts on the fertilizer market that influence price
Market trends in the past 25 years
A description of the imported fertilizer and market impacts
Impacts of anti-dumping and countervailing duties
A study of fertilizer industry concentration
A study of emerging fertilizer technologies
A description of whether current public price reporting is sufficient for market transparency

Exclusive First Look: Nutrien Says The Future Is A ‘Clicks and Mortar Business’

Mon, 15 Sep 2025 19:37:20 GMT

To double down on the company’s digitization strategy, Nutrien Ag Solutions has unveiled the Nutrien Hub.

“We say our business is clicks and mortar,” says Rob Clayton, senior vice president of North American retail for Nutrien Ag Solutions. “We are a bricks-and-mortar company, but we’re not naive enough to not know that our customers are getting more sophisticated and want digital tools for convenience. This is about ensuring we have a 24/7 connection with our customers, making it easy for them to connect with us anytime, 7 days a week.”

While Nutrien launched its first portal in 2018, beginning an era in the business where many invested in online portals and e-commerce, this newest iteration of the digital business and how its success is being measured are quite different.

“When we first launched the original customer portal, it was focused around helping growers place orders,” says Jeff Garlich, director of product development for the Nutrien Hub. “As we look at the new Nutrien Hub, our focus is on enabling stronger collaboration between our crop consultants and growers to get the best agronomic outcomes for our customers. That means not only providing financial information, but also agronomic information, environmental insights, and bringing all of those into one place. That was fractured across five different applications two to three years ago, and we’ve been working to consolidate everything into one spot for our growers to go access that information.”

(Images provided by Nutrien)

“We’ve certainly pivoted away from looking at total sales through the digital portal as the ultimate measure of success,” Clayton says. “It’s less about a dollar figure and more about how the Hub enables growers and crop consultants to work together more effectively.”

He goes on to say it’s the talent and skillset of the Nutrien team that is core to how the Hub can amplify their strengths and be a better partner to farmers in how they do business. Key questions that will be answered to measure the Hub’s success are:

Does this improve outcomes for customers?
Do customers save time and effort?
Is it more convenient?
Does it strengthen the connection between customers, Nutrien, and the people who represent the company?

“This is about making Nutrien the easiest company to do business with from an administrative standpoint,” he says. “Over time, we expect more customers will want the option to make purchases online. That’s not our focus right now. For now, and for the foreseeable future, we are not going to be a digital-only company. We will remain a people-first business in the field, supported by a digital platform that empowers our teams to be the most effective partners for farmers across North America.”

Beta-testing.

With its current user base of approximately 75,000, all customers were transitioned from the previous portal to the Hub in May.

“It was the smoothest sunset and switch I’ve had in my career,” Garlich says.

As Nutrien implements a new ERP system across geographic divisions in the US, it’s also rolling out new features of the Hub to users. The HUB is already available across North America, with additional functionality being introduced alongside the ERP rollout, which is targeted to be complete by October 2026. Developed with an in-house team, the project included feedback throughout the process from internal and external users. The team just completed a case study with users in central Indiana. When asked at the conclusion whether the Hub had been beneficial, the answers were all yes, according to Clayton.

“We are cognizant that we’re in 2025, entering 2026, and this really puts the company in our customers pocket,” he says. “For the first time, our company is giving employees and customers a mirrored view of looking at the same information in the same way. You can call the location for information or look it up yourself and get the same answer on invoices, payments and more.”

Foundational features.

There are five key features for the new Hub:

Online payments
View invoices, purchase history, and account details
Manage account profile and notification preferences, including paperless statements
Explore financing offers
Monitor local and field-level agronomically relevant weather conditions, and view shared agronomic crop plans

Nutrien aims for the Hub to deliver industry-leading, precedent-setting functionality, including the ability to aggregate supplier financing programs for users.

“This will be the first time these supplier programs will be fully digitized and simplified,” Clayton says. “We’ll be able to show growers all the programs available to them with a much faster—almost instant--process. Right now, these programs are tracked in spreadsheets, making it challenging for everyone involved—suppliers, farmers, and retailers. In a couple of years’ time, digitization won’t be optional – retailers will need it to stay competitive .”

Another functionality the team has built is the ability for farmers and their crop consultants to collaborate on soil sample results, crop planning, agronomic recommendations, and more. The Hub will also feature daily weather insights from meteorologist Eric Snodgrass and his team. Garlich highlights how the Hub will provide real-time information across the Nutrien business–supporting crop plan confirmations, order placement, a improved inventory tracking and management.

Monthly updates will continue to add new features and functionality, and leaders say to expect announcements as Nutrien brings on additional data-sharing partners for farmers.

“This is the start of the journey for us,” Garlich says. “While we’ve had a tool available in the past, what exists today is not what we’re going to end with. We will continue to enhance and expand it over time. For growers who may have looked at the previous version in the past and decided it wasn’t for them, this is a new tool – one worth revisiting to see how it can truly help support the challenges they face.”

Generational Wisdom, Disruptive Thinking and Access to Biotechnology Will Change Mexican Agriculture for Good

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:16:38 GMT

By Jose Luis Quintana: Rosales, Chihuahua, Mexico

One of my goals as a Mexican farmer is to supply the peanuts for your M&Ms.

We have been working towards this goal as part of our family farm’s business strategic growth plan here in Chihuahua, where we grow the peanuts that are the essential ingredient in one of the world’s favorite candies.

As we overcome water shortages and improve our access to technology, I believe that we can nurture an agricultural renaissance in which challenges become opportunities. When supported by science and collaboration, Mexican fields like mine can outperform the world.

My grandfather started our farm, and he introduced peanuts to the operation half a century ago. Back then, they were a rotational winter crop alongside wheat and enabled by abundant water. Today, with water scarce, peanuts are a part of a rotation strategy with alfalfa and corn.

We seek to grow high-quality peanuts in large quantities. After harvest, our raw peanuts undergo a rigorous selection and eventually join the value chain in products such as sauces and small-batch peanut butter as well as packages of shelled peanuts with assorted flavors, roasted peanuts in shells, and premium natural roasted peanuts.

Our strategic plans include meeting the export compliance requirements that will allow us to provide peanuts to Mars, the company that makes M&Ms. It already buys more than 300 million pounds of peanuts each year, mostly for Snickers candy bars. That’s about the weight of 25,000 full-grown elephants.

This huge demand has put Mars in “a race against a fast-changing climate that has brought waves of disease and pests that threaten the world’s peanut supply,” reported the New York Times in July.

My farm is on the front lines—and we’re in a living laboratory where research institutions, technological pioneers, and international partners can test solutions, from irrigation driven by artificial intelligence to drought-resistant genetics.

Right now, for instance, we’re seeking to improve peanut nutrition with an experiment in specialized micronutrients that deliver potassium, which fuels late-stage maturation and results in heavier kernels.

Our most urgent task, however, is to provide our crops with the water they need. Northern Mexico is dry, and climate change is making it drier. We receive some rainfall, but we mostly rely on water allocated to us by the government. It’s often not enough and droughts can devastate.

Precision irrigation technologies are a part of the solution. We also plant with GPS-guided equipment that achieve optimal crop density in our fields, improving seed germination, reducing input costs, and boosting yields. All of this helps conserve water and lets us grow more with less.

These investments are substantial but also necessary. Together, they can make sure our crops get the water they need and that nothing goes to waste.

Soil quality is a constant challenge. A lot of farms in our region have suffered from erosion and compaction plus an overreliance on chemical fertilizers. This has taken a toll. On our farm, we’re starting to fight it with cover crops on fields previously harvested for peanuts.

Ultimately, though, we need better genetics—in other words, peanuts bred to thrive in our region’s climate and soil. My perspective is shaped by my own background in biotechnology.My first-hand experience in synthetic genetics is a driving force behind my conviction that embracing cutting edge genetic technology is not a choice, but a necessity for propelling Mexican agriculture forward.

The peanut seeds we currently use are better adapted to other profiles. We do our best with them, but they often suffer from water stress that depresses yield. Many barely meet our minimum profit thresholds.

Ideally, we’d grow peanuts that can endure dry periods, resist herbicides so that we can control weeds, and increase biomass so we can use the plants for both peanut production and animal forage.

We’ve found that specialized products can make a difference. Our family once collaborated with a Mexican researcher who enhanced peanuts through hybridization, and he created a variety that tripled yields. Unfortunately, the company backing his work declared bankruptcy before commercialization.

This shows the amazing potential of Mexican peanuts—but only if government regulators and others are open to technology in all its forms, including genetic modification and editing.

Success will take a deliberate effort. As a peanut scientist told the New York Times: “We are not going to stumble on the perfect peanut. One that resists drought and disease is not going to be discovered by accident. It has to be grown.”

By combining generational wisdom, disruptive thinking, and a determination to achieve, we can make Mexican agriculture both innovative and aspirational—and turn farming into a career that attracts our best and brightest.

Jose Luis Quintana produces peanuts, wheat, corn and alfalfa on a farm started by his grandfather in Rosales, Chihuahua, Mexico.Jose Luis is a Biotechnology Engineer with specializations in Molecular Biotechnology and Entrepreneurship, and a Masters degree in Innovation and Enterprise Administration. Jose Luis Quintana is a member of the Global Farmer Network. www.globalfarmernetwork.org

How Are We Going to Survive At These Prices? Farmers Struggle with High Fertilizer Costs Compared to Corn

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 17:28:03 GMT

Farmers are in the middle of calling input suppliers to get quotes for fall fertilizer, and the prices are shocking. The corn price to fertilizer price ratio on inputs such as phosphate are now the highest on record, and as corn prices continue to slide, it’s creating a financial hurt on farmers.

“How are we going to survive at these prices?” That’s exactly the question one farmer asked U.S. Farm Report yesterday. The farmer, who asked to remain unnamed, was quoted $1,000 per ton for potash and $850 per ton for anhydrous ammonia, which paints another dreary picture for 2026 as current futures prices won’t come close to helping farmers break even next year, either.

“If we look at what has changed since 2022, these current corn prices below $4, and then we look back to the peak in 2022 when we had prices over $8, we’re talking about a 50%, more than 50%, decline from that peak in 2022,” Swanson says.

Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) and Illinois farmer, says even though corn futures have been cut in half since 2022, input prices are still high.

“USDA puts out cost of production numbers for different commodities, and the average cost of reduction to grow an acre of corn is almost the same for both 2025 and 2026 as it was in 2022,” Swanson says. “So, as we look ahead, we’re talking about just a couple percent lower, which is over $900 an acre to put in an acre of corn.”

NCGA Says Fertilizer Costs Are High in the Currency of Corn

Swanson says fertilizer makes up about 40% of a farmer’s total operating costs for growing corn.

According to StoneX, the corn to phosphate price ratio hit the highest on record. A sign fertilizer prices haven’t hit their highs yet.

The last prompt/nearby NOLA DAP barge traded $820 on 7/30.

This morning, Dec '26 corn is down to $4.4575/bushel.

That DAP/corn ratio is 184 which is the all-time high record based on our data.

I'm going to go sit in a corner and think about what we have done. pic.twitter.com/m6ys93OjHZ
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) August 5, 2025

“MAP, DAP and potash prices have increased about 10% since the beginning of the year. If we look at those 28% and 32% solutions, we’re talking anywhere from 30% to 37% increases,” she says.

Swanson recently wrote an analysis on Fertilizer Costs are High in the Currency of Corn . She says farmers are in a tough situation with low corn prices and high fertilizer costs. The concern is elevated as corn growers look ahead to the fall and plan for the upcoming 2026 crop.

“Currently, it would take about 226 bu. to buy a ton of ammonium phosphate, and that was 180 bu. at the beginning of this year,” Swanson says. “So we’re talking about an increase of 46 bu. needed to buy the same ton of fertilizer just in this calendar year.”

Fertilizer costs are high in the currency of corn.

(Krista Swanson, National Corn Growers Association )

She says DAP, MAP and UAN 28% all cost around 40% more bushels than the 10-year average. Anhydrous ammonia costs 20% more bushels and potash 11% more bushels.

The other concerning piece is as geopolitical tensions and trade uncertainty remain, fertilize prices could trend even higher.

“I think the signs are there that input prices for the 2026 crop than in 2025, especially when you consider the where fertilizer prices are now,” Swanson says. “We’re just now coming up on what I call input buying season.”

According to Reuters, the world’s top potash producer, Nutrien, announced during its earnings call this week the company topped Wall Street estimates for second-quarter profit. The Canadian based company cited improved demand and increased corn acreage in the U.S. as the reason.

In its call, Nutrien said potash is the most affordable crop nutrient right now, but if you ask farmers, even potash isn’t affordable compared to the price of corn.

“Fertilizer market fundamentals are supported by strong global demand, persistent supply disruptions and project delays. We have seen healthy fertilizer customer engagement and field activity in North America,” CEO Ken Seitz says in a statement.

According to Reuters, Nutrien says it expects current-year potash sales volumes to be in the range of 13.9 million tonnes to 14.5 million tonnes. That compares to what the company previously projected, which was for potash sales volumes to reach 13.6 million tonnes to 14.4 million tonnes.

What’s Fueling Higher Fertilizer Prices?

Swanson says it’s a combination of factors fueling the higher fertilizer prices, including geopolitical tensions, as well as the uncertainty surrounding tariffs. To sum it up, she says it’s:

Lingering supply chain disruptions
Potential input tariffs on fertilizer imports
Geopolitical relations
Ongoing countervailing duties (CVDs) on imports of phosphate fertilizers from Morocco into the U.S.

And this is not a new thing this year, she says, but something that’s been going on for several years that they’ve been advocating for a resolution to.

Corn Growers Make a Strong Plea to Trump Administration

The combination of factors causing increased fertilizer prices is something NCGA is bringing to the attention of the Trump administration. NCGA, along with 25 state-based corn grower groups, sent a letter to Trump administration officials on Aug. 1 , outlining the severe economic challenges facing farmers due to high fertilizer prices.

The letter was addressed to the U.S. Trade Representative, Secretary of Commerce and Secretary of Agriculture.

“The letter was meant to explain the worsening economic situations that are being caused by elevated fertilizer prices and other inputs that are really critical to growing corn and asking for assistance in terms of how to address these input cost concerns and implement new trade deals and remove trade barriers that are part of what’s contributing to these prices,” Swanson says.

Within the letter, NCGA detailed the following key concerns:

Elevated Fertilizer Costs: The letter highlights that fertilizers, including phosphates and urea ammonium nitrate, are significantly more expensive. Phosphates have risen by over 60% in the last decade, and urea ammonium nitrate increased by 37% since the beginning of the year.
Low Corn Prices: This surge in input costs is compounded by a weakened market for U.S. corn, with prices dropping by 14% since the beginning of 2025 and 50% since 2022.
Calamitous Environment: This combination of high costs and low revenue creates a “calamitous environment” for farmers, many of whom are already operating on narrow margins.
Negative Profit Margins: Projections indicate 2025 will see negative profit margins exceeding $100 per acre due to high input costs.
Tariffs: The letter expresses concern that antidumping and countervailing duties imposed on imported fertilizers are contributing to higher prices paid by farmers.

More than just detailing what’s causing fertilizer prices to reach historically high levels, NCGA also asked the Trump administration to act.

Address High Costs and Tariffs: The NCGA is urging the Trump administration to address the rising fertilizer costs and to consider re-evaluating trade policies, specifically those involving tariffs on fertilizer imports.
Support American Farmers: The letter emphasizes the need for solutions that ensure more affordable access to fertilizers and essential inputs for American farmers.
Long-Term Policy Solutions: The NCGA also stresses the importance of developing long-term policies that shield farmers from market volatility and punitive trade measures.
Collaboration: The letter reiterates the NCGA’s willingness to collaborate with the administration to find solutions and underscores the urgency of government intervention.

Even with high prices, booking fall fertilizer should be a priority for farmers, according to The Fertilizer Institute. You can find out why here .

Silver Linings: Farmers Share What’s Gone Right & Wrong This Season

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 16:41:39 GMT

What you can’t hear, reading this brief article, is the laughter.

In some cases the farmers attending this year’s Farm Journal Corn & Soybean College were laughing because the stories others in the room were telling were just downright funny.

In other cases, it was the laughter of commiseration – the ‘I understand-what-you-are-going-through’ kinds of chuckles.

Either way, the camaraderie was cathartic. It lifted spirits, gave encouragement and reminded this group of farmers they were with people who understood their worries but were doing their darnedest to press on and find silver linings in a year marked by dismal markets.

Below are comments from five different farmers who shared how their growing season is going. I hope you’ll be able to relate to some of their experiences:

East-central Iowa: “We’re just sitting in a pocket that’s had ample rain. Planting went well. The corn crop looked fabulous the moment it came out of the ground, and it just hasn’t looked back. I think it’s going to be a whopper.”

Northern Illinois: “I’ve got several neighbors coming up and saying mine’s the best crop they’ve seen, but we’ve been blessed with rain. I’ve got cattle in a (feedyard) so having extra rain isn’t always the greatest thing for that, but it is what it is.”

Southwestern Ontario, Canada: “It was a cool, wet spring. Most of our corn took at least three weeks to get out of the ground. We’re just starting to tassel now here (in late July). The crop is very uneven. There was a lot of burn, a lot of urea was put on 4-foot-tall corn. We ran out of 28% and 32% UAN. People bought it in October, and it never showed up.”

Eastern Oregon/central Washington. “We pretty much irrigate everything. If you’d look at the Google Earth map, everything you see brown is dryland wheat and everything you see that’s green is irrigation. I grow primarily fresh market potatoes. The corn’s our rotation. Everything we do, onions, alfalfa, etc., is irrigated. We don’t (have) rain. We’ll turn the switch on and start pumping. It’s costly. Hearing you guys talk about two, three inches of rain, I’d love to have it, but it never comes.”

Northeast Kansas: “Everything has been like perfect (conditions) for our corn all the way through, so far. We’ll see if that carries out to yield, but right now the corn looks fabulous. 2014 was our best crop ever, and we think we’re going to be right there this year, if things continue the way they have.”

Also, check out the brief video I did with two growers during the event. I appreciated their willingness to share their thoughts on what’s gone right for them this season. They did their best to share some words of encouragement for anyone who’s watching. My sincere thanks – Pat Gannon, Colfax, Iowa, and Doug Bontekoe, Marion, Michigan – for letting me talk with you between sessions.

Your next read: Ready For What’s Next: How An Iowa Farmer Survived the ‘80s Farm Crisis and Now Invests In Others