Iran

Diesel Prices Are Breaking Records Across Multiple States, And Relief May Not Come in 2026

Wed, 06 May 2026 12:53:35 GMT

On Tuesday, President Trump stated that high gasoline prices are a “very small price to pay” for the ongoing war with Iran, arguing they are necessary to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon. He predicted prices will “come crashing down” once the war ends. But for farmers and ranchers, diesel prices have risen more than gas, putting a further strain on already high input costs for 2026.

Trump on Oil Prices:

I looked today, it's like at 102 and that's a very small price to pay pic.twitter.com/2V8LC93wFj
— Acyn (@Acyn) May 5, 2026

To start the week, diesel prices went on another run with the national average diesel price is just 20 cents away from reaching a new all-time high. And across the country, a growing number of states aren’t waiting to get there. About six states are already seeing the national average price of diesel reach record highs.

From the Great Lakes to the West Coast, roughly a half dozen states have already smashed previous records, as a late-April dip in prices quickly faded and a fresh surge took hold.

“Diesel now averaging about $5.65 a gallon nationally. That is only about 20 cents away from a new all-time record high,” says Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy . “So even though we had that short-lived break, we’re right back knocking on the door of records again.”

That “break” didn’t last long. De Haan says even though diesel prices saw a bit of a respite for April, with even prices starting to trend down in mid-April, those prices re-accelerated in the last week.

New records for diesel in:
Michigan, $6.01
Illinois, $6.01
Wisconsin $5.67
(Indiana 0.2c/gal away), $6.03
(Ohio ~19c/gal away), $5.93 https://t.co/DV0387vvMR
— Patrick De Haan (@GasBuddyGuy) May 5, 2026

Now, the rally is showing up in state-by-state records, especially in the Midwest.

“Looking at it state by state, Great Lakes states have seen some tremendous refining issues that have really caused prices to rise dramatically,” he says. “Michigan has now set a new all-time record high for diesel over $6. Indiana is just a few tenths of a penny away from setting a new all-time record. Illinois has set a new all-time record. Wisconsin has set a new all-time record.”

And it’s not just a regional story. States in the West were some of the first to not just see the highest prices, but now also hit record levels.

“Out on the West Coast, Arizona set a record a couple of weeks ago, and Washington state is at an all-time record,” he adds. “So there are probably about a half dozen or so states that have set new all-time records, and again, the national average itself is just 20 cents away.”

Perhaps the most telling shift, though, is there’s no longer a low-price refuge.

“No states any longer have diesel averaging below $5 a gallon,” De Haan says. “Texas was the last holdout, and it now is above $5 per gallon. So across the board, $5 diesel is now essentially the floor, and in some areas, that’s actually the cheaper end of the spectrum.”

At the high end, prices are reaching extremes with California’s average diesel price now surpassing $8 per gallon.

Global Tensions Cloud Relief Outlook

With prices continuing to climb, farmers are looking for relief. What would it take to reverse course? That answer remains tied to global uncertainty.

“Relief may be a little bit elusive,” De Haan admits. “It really just depends on the daily developments in the situation between the U.S. and Iran—whether the Strait is open or not, or whether we’re in phases of escalation.”

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy supply, moving roughly 20 million barrels of oil per day.

“Nothing else matters to the oil market more than this waterway,” he emphasizes. “We’ve seen attacks that have pushed oil prices higher, which in turn pushes diesel wholesale prices up. You may get a little bit of day-to-day relief, but there really is no ‘coast is clear’ until there’s some sort of definitive resolution.”

And even then, he says a turnaround won’t happen overnight.

“If there is a definitive signal to the market, if the Strait reopens and both sides are aligned, prices could start falling within 48 hours,” De Haan explained. “But the rate of decline is likely to slow after that initial drop.”

Prices Likely to Remain Elevated Through 2026

Not only is the rate of decline projected to be slow, but De Haan says diesel prices aren’t likely to drop back to pre-war levels by the end of the year.

“Roughly half of the increase we’ve seen over the last couple of months could come down within the first few months of positive news,” he said. “But the other half could take many more months. We may not get back to pre-conflict diesel prices until late this year—or even into 2027.”

For agriculture, that prolonged stretch of elevated prices carries real consequences.

“When you look at what comes out of a barrel of oil, diesel only makes up about 25%,” De Haan explained. “Gasoline is a larger portion, so it’s been less impacted. Jet fuel, which is an even smaller share, has been hit the hardest. So it’s almost inverse to how much is produced.”

Why Diesel Is Climbing Faster Than Gasoline

If it feels like diesel prices are rising faster and hitting harder than gasoline, there’s a reason rooted in how a barrel of oil gets used.

“Diesel has seen more of the sticker shock compared to gasoline,” says De Haan. “And a lot of that comes down to what comes out of a barrel of oil.”

Not all fuels are created equally in supply. Gasoline makes up the largest share of a refined barrel, while diesel represents a smaller slice, making it more vulnerable when supply is disrupted.

“Gasoline is the top product flowing out of a barrel of oil, so it’s been the least impacted,” De Haan explains. “Diesel, on the other hand, only accounts for about 25% of a barrel, so it’s been more impacted when there are supply issues.”

That imbalance becomes even clearer when looking across the full spectrum of refined fuels.

“The most significant impact has actually been to jet fuel, which is only about 9% of a barrel,” he adds. “So if you look at it inversely—the smaller the share of the barrel, the bigger the impact we’re seeing right now.”

For agriculture, that dynamic matters more than most sectors.

Diesel isn’t optional on the farm. It’s essential. From planting to harvest, it powers tractors, trucks and the supply chain that moves commodities across the country.

“Diesel is the fuel that drives agriculture,” De Haan say. “And that’s why these price increases are so impactful, not just at the pump, but all the way through the economy.”

And while prices are already elevated, the full effect is still working its way downstream.

“Consumers really haven’t even seen the full onset of some of these higher prices yet,” he adds. “That’s going to continue to trickle through in the weeks ahead.”

Demand Holding...for Now

Even with these high prices, so far, demand hasn’t shown many signs of slowing.

“We have not seen much meaningful decrease in demand yet,” De Haan says. “We’ve seen very little, if any, diesel demand destruction so far, which tells you the economy is essentially preparing to pay these prices because it still needs the fuel.”

But there are warning signs ahead.

“If diesel nationally hits $6 a gallon, that’s likely when we start to see consumption slow,” he says. “For gasoline, that number is about $5 a gallon. We’re getting very close to those thresholds.”

Until then, the pressure continues to mount. And for farmers heading deeper into the growing season, that pressure is becoming harder to ignore.

Corn and Wheat Pause on Profit Taking: November Soybeans Hit New Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 21:41:45 GMT

Grain markets ended mostly lower except new crop soybeans, cattle were mixed with hogs lower.

Corn and Wheat Take a Breather
Corn and wheat both ended lower on Thursday.

Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says wheat made new highs on Wednesday and was overbought and due for a correction.

Corn made new highs for the move in the overnight session before seeing some pressure from the lower wheat market and profit taking as it was end of the month, plus the start of the delivery period for May contracts.

“I think there was a lot of that definitely at play with the session here to obviously to finish the month. We know the funds have definitely been buyers here again. So seeing them take some profits here after a really strong move is good to see as long as we’re holding support. And so far that seems to be the case. We did have some healthy retracement levels tested during the session. But so far we haven’t seen any meaningful changes fundamentally. And I think that’s going to keep support here under the whole grain complex,” she explains.

The crude oil market also corrected after spiking in the overnight session which may have weighed on corn and wheat as well.

She says, “Yes, crude had losses today too, but there too, we had a very strong overnight session and pushed to some new highs for the move.”

Corrections Are Healthy
She says the corrections in corn and especially wheat are healthy.

“We can’t go in a steep climb forever. You’re going to have to have pullbacks. And honestly, just after the beginning of this week, or even looking back the past three weeks, we’ve had some phenomenal rallies. Wheat, for instance, rallying over $1 in most contracts across all three exchanges. So having a first pullback here, you know, with some double digits is actually healthy for the market. And again, we haven’t
seen anything fundamentally change the story here today. Makes me think it’s more technical,” she adds.

Farmer Selling
With the big run up in prices there was likely some farmer selling as well.

Thompson says she hopes farmers took advantage of the rally to do some pricing.

“We’ve been definitely pushing to be making some sales, especially on a strong run that’s, again, a lot of weather and momentum traded. So it always makes you a little leery, especially this time of year. There is risk ahead, don’t get me wrong, but you’ve got to be rewarding the market when we’re getting rallies and strong moves to some new highs, of course, that producers haven’t seen for a couple of years,” she states.

Weather Change?
There was also some rains in the forecast for HRW wheat areas like Texas. In the past those rains have been disappointing and if the pattern stays the same wheat could add back weather premium according to Thompson.

Plus, she says it may be too late for the rain to help some areas.

“Yeah, at this point, I think a lot of the damage has been done. I’ve talked to producers down there. I’ve also talked to some custom harvesters who’ve been moving or trying to talk to clients who’ve been all the way down to Texas. And unfortunately, one person even commented that they weren’t able to get any farms that were willing to book for wheat anywhere South of South Dakota. So I think that there’s definitely some production issues there,” she says.

There is some replanting taking place but with 34% of the U.S. crop heading it is going to be too late for rain to make a difference in her opinion.

How Big Are the Production Losses?
So are all of the losses priced into the market and what production cuts could be expected?

Thompson says, “Well, that’s the million dollar question is where is final production going to be? But ultimately, the market’s pricing in where these production losses are going to be. And ultimately, it depends what the USDA does. We know they’re kind of notorious for kicking that can down the road. So it could take a couple months before we really start seeing what production is going to be like. And it probably will wait
until we get further into harvest. So end of May, beginning of June, when we normally see winter wheat starting to harvest that we start really building something here on this market.”

She reiterated that wheat markets have a history of going further in extreme times than a lot of people would think.

“And I think we’re in that environment now where we could see prices continue to spike higher.”

Spring Wheat Planting Slow
The spring wheat market was down from the contract highs hit on Wednesday.

Prices have finally moved above $7 and hopefully are profitable enough to entice farmers in the North to continue to plant.

But is the market concerned about low acreage or yields?

“A fair question. You know, South of me, you don’t have to go very far an hour closer to Fargo. And there are guys who are already done planting spring wheat, getting beets in the ground. And then up in my area, just an hour North and beyond, there isn’t any real equipment moving. We really haven’t turned anything yet. And even this morning, we had snowflakes falling in the area. So spring isn’t exactly here yet. And that’s, you know, just keeping things a little bit at bay,” she says.

But it is still early and so she thinks the intended acres will get planted but none beyond that especially with higher fertilizer prices.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says any farmers that have booked fertilizer are more likely to use it on corn acres instead of wheat.

Many industry analysts believe corn acres are dropping but Thompson thinks in the North the acres will be close to intentions.

“A lot of guys booked fertilizer early. Talking with producers where I think those acres are kind of locked in I don’t foresee a big switch coming from our area. I think a lot of guys are intending to plant acres again, just based on what they produced last year. They had a very good season. So I think guys are really going to try and get the corn in the ground, especially if they have the fertilizer booked. If they don’t, might be a different story case by case. But I do think that we’re going to get a lot of the corn going in the ground this year,” she adds.

$5 Dec Corn
With a cut in acres and high fertilizer prices the December corn is flirting with $5. Will it get above that level?

She is optimistic it will for several reasons.

“You know, demand has been very strong for corn. And I know we’re starting to talk about the U.S. growing season and not really seeing, you know, a lot of risk there yet necessarily. I mean, planting pace is going good. Conditions are going to be around the corner here and there’s no hiccups. But we also have to remember South America is a big one right now. And over the next couple of weeks, a lot of their top producing areas further north are going to be starting to go into a dry and hot season. And I think that could have more of an impact on the global corn market, especially with ending stocks at 10-year lows, stocks to use ratio at 10-year lows. We can’t afford a problem. And of course, we have the growing season ahead here yet. So to see the risk appetite in the grains that we have right now, I think it definitely leaves the door open,” she says.

Technically if Dec corn can get about $5.03 she thinks there is a good chance to go to $5.25.

Soybeans End Mixed But Off Lows
Soybeans were under pressure early but did come back with the rally to new contract highs in bean oil even though crude oil reversed lower.

She says a biofuel report show an increase in usage which helped push bean oil.

“So I think that the demand on the oil side could step up some more. But ultimately, that’s what’s leading the market. I mean, we hit three and a half year highs today, and that certainly helps the idea for soybeans. And that complex is really split. It’s obviously a product market. We’ve been following meal for the last couple of weeks. Now it seems like it’s switching over to the oil side. And oil, when that’s leading, can definitely create volatility. So I expect that we’re going to stay range bound here unless soy oil can really kick it into another gear.”

Soybeans Attempt Chart Breakout
The soybean market attempted to break out of its sideways trading range and got above $12 but could not close above that level.

November soybeans made a new high but then closed back under that level.

She says, “It’s really good to see the market really probing those resistance levels and really trying to break through them. But until we can get a close above $12 or above in July, you know, $11.75 in November, it makes it really difficult. You know, the market ultimately is still looking for a catalyst. We have supportive elements there. They’ve been there for a while and they’re keeping us at the top of the range, but the market clearly wants more to get there. So it’ll be interesting to see as we go forward.”

China Deal or Crush?
The one catalyst the market may be waiting for is the results of the China meeting on May 14 and 15 as record crush alone has not been able to get the market above current trading ranges.

“Crush margins remain very strong. So, I think domestically we’re definitely set up and we’ve seen that shift we’ve been talking about it here for several months that you know soybeans used to be a dominantly export market and we’re really starting to see it shift to the product side and so to see that strength build I think it’s just a switch happening within the complex and soybeans are obviously reacting to it and I think it does give us a very good floor under soybeans,” she further explains.

Live Cattle Consolidate
Live cattle futures were mostly lower after hitting record highs on Wednesday on the heels of record cash.

She chalks it up to month end profit taking similar to the grain markets.

“We’ve had a healthy run you’re gonna have to have healthy pullbacks too. It’s good for the market so we’re obviously going to be trying to find support here grains as well same with the livestock just finding where that level of support is going to be where buyers are going to step back in and I think that’s the environment we’re in across the board,” she says.

Funds have been eager to buy on breaks which should also keep the market supported.

Grain and Cattle Futures Pause on Profit After Some Hit Fresh Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 15:55:48 GMT

Grain and livestock markets are mostly lower early Thursday.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets are taking a pause on Thursday after some new highs for the move overnight in July corn. Plus, 22 month highs Wednesday in both winter wheat classes and new contract highs in bean oil, December corn and hard red spring wheat.

Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says it’s end of the month, so he chalks this up to some routine profit taking and farmer selling.

“You saw with the new highs in the corn market, a lot of new farmers selling, just cleaning up some old crop stuff, but probably a little bit bigger movement on the new crop as we just got fractionally close to $5 December futures. That’s the highest level we could have sold to date on the December contract,” he explains.

Markets Eye Crude Oil
The markets are also watching the movement in crude oil, which was sharply higher on Thursday and overnight with the Strait of Hormuz still blocked.

Crude oil backed off and pushed slightly lower early Thursday on end of month profit taking and Nellinger thinks that may have trimmed gains in the grain markets as well.

“We’ve had crude oil really screaming higher, got north of $110. It reversed overnight and is back a couple dollars lower. And so I think all of that is kind of a little bit of a headwind here, but it’s not like it’s aggressive selling yet. Just kind of a normal correction lower. I don’t think it’s anything out of the ordinary,” he says.

Wheat Rally Over?
The wheat market was overbought and do for a correction plus it is first notice day for May contracts and Nellinger says there were some deliveries in Kansas City wheat.

“There’s an old saying on the Chicago Board of Trade grain floor from way back when, buy first notice day. I don’t know if that’s going to hold true today. Kansas City wheat had some deliveries on that May contract. A little bit shocking. You know, sometimes when you get to first notice day, the commercials really kind of start playing a high-stakes poker game, trying to, you know, sift each other out and figure out who’s got the ace in their pocket. And so I think that commercial delivery in the Kansas City May contract this morning had a little bit of a negative tone to it. After a big run into the month, good reason to pull back a little bit.”

There are also rain chances for Texas and that may have also caused funds to take some profits.

However, Nellinger doesn’t think the lower production concerns are priced in yet.

“We’ve likely priced in a lot of the multi-week crop condition decline. But to your point, we don’t know what the ultimate yields are. There’s a lot of people saying, hey, rains don’t matter at this point. We’re too far gone on yields. We may even abandon these acres and not get harvested. So we know there’s damage, but sometimes you have to wait to get into harvest to figure out really what is there. But certainly rain in the forecast, even if it’s a small chance, you know, is not immediately bullish. But likely we’ve dialed in a lot of a lot of bullishness with yield pullbacks. But we won’t know till harvest the ultimate result there,” he says.

Frost Concerns
There are also forecasts for cold temperatures and some frost in some areas of the wheat belt as far South as Nebraska.

Some of the corn and soybeans that have been planted may also be suseptible.

“Yeah, I think on the eastern Corn Belt side, there certainly would be. Again, I don’t think it’s a tremendous amount of acres, but we’re far enough long on the production cycle there that a hard freeze now, once we’re about to turn the calendar here to May, certainly could nip a little bit of wheat. It’s not the perfect time for a frost. We’re far enough along in the development that it could hurt, but I think the frost line is going to be far enough north. probably going to be out of that main wheat growing area in the Eastern Corn Belt here,” he adds.

Does Corn Take Out $5?
December corn got just a tick from $5 on Thursday as it made new contract highs as it has been getting help from the wheat market and the run up in energy prices.

However, if the wheat market rally is over does corn have enough of it’s own story to take out $5?

Nellinger thinks so. “You know, we’re coming into the timeframe here. First part of May, we’re typically put in a spring high. I think everybody’s kind of watching that. And everyone’s asking that same question, Michelle. I think some of it depends on crude oil. You know, crude oil went very quickly from $90 a barrel to north of $110 a barrel. The world took notice of that. The Strait of Hormuz is still closed. So I think some of it depends on what happens the next 10 days, two weeks on crude oil prices,” he says.

The May crop report is also coming up and the market may need demand confirmation from USDA on corn and beans to keep going, but he’s not ruling it out.

“I wouldn’t put it past this to get north of $5 on Dec corn. I don’t know if it’s dramatically north of there as there’s going to be a lot of farmer selling on a push north of $5,” he adds.

Fertilizer Story for 2026 or 2027?
Still with high fertilizer prices and some farmers unable to get supplies there is talk of lower corn acreage for 2026 but is this more of a 2027 story?

He says, “I think it’s both. I’m getting a sense of that as well. And I think that’s maybe drawn some kind of outside equity money in or money off the sidelines kind of as an investment into grains. I get this sense that there’s a narrative across the world of potential food shortages, yield losses due to lack of availability or rationing of nitrogen due to high prices. I think it’s yet to be seen. It’s certainly not something that’s bearish.”

It will impact the Southern Hemisphere, Brazil and Argentina in particular according to Nellinger.

“We have some issues brewing here. So I think it is a story. It’s not going to go away anytime soon,” he says.

Basis Improvement on Corn
Even with the higher futures prices on corn the basis has also improved which is perplexing to Nellinger.

He says, “Yes, you can argue that producers were in the field doing field work, some early planning in the Southern portions. But that basis improvement started even before they got in the field. So surprisingly, over here in the Eastern Corn Belt, things look relatively tight. I don’t think there’s a lot of old crop corn left. Basis has improved. Demand’s good. But in the Northwest Corn Belt, I don’t think the basis has improved as much.”

Export demand may be part of the reason and weekly sales were strong at nearly 63 million bu. again on Thursday.

“Still running, what, 2%, 3% ahead of the pace that the USDA has, and that’s a massive number to begin with. So there has been no slowdown yet,” he says.

High crude oil prices have ethanol margins strong and even with a smaller cattle herd he says producers are feeding to much heavier weights.

Wednesday’s EIA report showed ethanol production was down 31,000 barrels per day, but it was because of routine maintenance.

E15 Possible?
The House passed the farm bill without the E15 amendment but is looking for an alternative to get it passed yet this week before Congress goes on recess until May 12.

How big of demand push will that be for corn?

Nellinger says it will help but it won’t shoot prices higher.

“Unless it’s a mandatory, you know, a mandated thing that we’re going to use X percent. If it’s voluntary, it will help, but probably not to the massive bullish extent that maybe people hope for,” was his opinion.

Soybeans Retrace But Still Sideways
Soybeans are easing as well on Thursday with the rest of the grain complex and seeing some end of month positioning.

However, the soybean oil rallying to new contract highs on Thursday has been supportive as well as hopes for a China deal.

He says, “There’s a lot of optimism that these mid-May China-U.S. trade talks are going to immediately produce large Chinese bean purchases. Not sure if I’m in that camp, but it’s going to hold the bean market fairly firm on breaks in here for a couple of weeks. And you mentioned bean oil. We’ve been hitting new contract highs there again following crude oil.”

Is Bean Oil Close to a Top?
So is bean oil getting overpriced or is it putting in a top?

Nellinger says the big key is when is the Strait of Hormuz going to open and when is oil going to start flowing.

“Crush margins are near record. And so crush demand domestically is just through the roof. And that’s helping bean demand,” he says.

Cattle Consolidate Off Record Highs
Live cattle futures hit record highs on Thursday following record cash trade.

However, Nellinger says they are due for a correction especially as it is end of the month.

“The speed that we went up, yeah, the cash market was massively strong, way better than expected. Probably due for a break in here. I’m not so sure that the packers didn’t get long and then goose the cash market. They’ve been known to do that, and then they take profits immediately after that. So no reason we’ve got to break $20 barring some sort of a Black Swan news event but we are probably overextended and need a little bit of a break here to correct the overbought condition,” he says.

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged For Now?
The Fed left interest rates unchanged at the conclusion of their April meeting but the surprise was there were four dissenting votes giving the indication that additional rate cuts are off the table for 2026.

In fact if energy prices stay high with the ongoing war and inflation continues to flair is it possible the Fed could have to raise rates this year?

Nellinger says its possible, “Yeah, I think you would have to, you know, and you may have to anyway. I think that the the $100 plus crude oil is going to take several months to sift through the world economy. So we haven’t even seen some of the effects of that on prices. Think about everything that moves with diesel trains, automobiles, planes, barges, you name it. it is a big deal so the longer we stay at or above $100 I think the more of an argument they have to raise rates to kind of stem inflation a little bit,” he adds.

Wheat Hits New Highs: Why Corn and Beans Could Not Follow

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 21:41:46 GMT

Grains ended mixed Thursday with wheat and corn higher, soybeans lower. Cattle and hogs were mostly higher.

Wheat Breaks to New Highs
Wheat futures saw a chart breakout and made fresh highs led by the hard red winter wheat futures which were up on the July contract 29 1/4 at $6.79 1/4, with July soft red winter wheat up 13 1/4 at $6.20 1/4.

Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says the HRW wheat market was adding weather premium with forecasts continuing to look hot and dry for the Southern Plains.

Can Wheat Continue to Rally?
Now that the wheat market has seen a technical breakout how high could prices run?

Toay says the charts look very constructive trading on a weekly continuation chart through the 200-day moving average of $6.75. “I mean, especially on that July Kansas City weekly chart. Now we open it up and, you know, it looks like there may be, you know, 40 or 50 cents, you know, 30, 40 cents, I should say, of upside follow through here.”

That opens up a move over $7 towards the May 2024 spike highs.

However, he says soft red winter wheat is getting pulled along for the ride.

“You also saw new contract highs in the KC Chicago spread, renewed concerns about drought, renewed concerns about the frost. You definitely have a kind of a tale of two wheat belts,” he adds.

However, he thinks the rally is may be capped by the fact that ending stocks are still ample and U.S. wheat prices are starting to be expensive on the world front.

Corn Barely Follows Wheat
Despite the big rally in wheat the corn market ended just a penny higher with July at $4.63 3/4.

Toay says the big supply keeps capping the rallies and the corn market doesn’t have a bullish story anymore if the war is ending in Iran.

“The Iran war started and everything got excited. So, you know, if the Iran war is getting in the final innings here, then we kind of revert back to that old story where there’s really not much of a story there,” he says.

Basis is firming on corn as farmers get into the fields especially as demand has been strong.

“So it’s a function of when does the farmer sell and move the remaining old crop stocks. And that’s probably going to happen here in the
next six to eight weeks for the most part. And then you’ve got another tranche of selling that will happen in July and August. So, you know, right now the farmer’s kind of uninvolved. They’re focused on, you know, getting the new crop planted. And, you know, so there’s really no story,” he explains.

Technically the market was held back on Thursday by lower soybeans.

Soybeans See Technical Selling
Soybean futures were lower again on follow through selling after the chart failure on Wednesday as the market went up to a 1/4 cent from the March high on the November contract and failed and July also could not break out of its sideways range.

“When beans are back testing their highs there just 24 hours ago, I mean, you had everything kind of firing on all cylinders. then we had the rejection and then everything fell apart you know you have to remember these markets are computer traded and they’re all tied together so that had a heavy influence,” he says.

Bean oil is still the strong leg of the soy complex with better than expected demand he remarks. “Considering the crush rates, bean oil is the straw that stirs the drink. And that’s still tied to the energy markets and crude approaching $100 a barrel again.”

So he’s not concerned about the key reversal scored in the bean oil market on Wednesday off the new contract highs because the market has already negated several of those.

“These bean oil stocks especially look at the the the last NOPA crush we had a record crush and bean oil stocks saw a draw so that that tells us that this demand for the product is extremely strong,” he adds.

Weather and Planting
Toay says so far planting is running ahead of the normal pace nationally but there have been some wet extended forecasts for the Midwest and Northern Plains that could slow planting.

He says the market doesn’t get concerned about impacts on national corn yield until May 10th or May 15th timeframe.

“So we still have some time, especially considering the size of the equipment that we have. But it’s going to be a struggle around here. I mean, looking out my backyard, I mean, we’re in northern Illinois. We had seven inches of rain last week. Things are just now starting to get fit. We’ve had three, four days of 80-degree weather and sunshine. And so we see sprayers out there and anhydrous ammonia bars. We’re in the area where probably 20%, 30% of the producers still put on spring anhydrous so that has to go on. So I think that there’s a lot of work to be done.”

China Meeting
Toay also thinks the soybean market is sensitive to the outcome of the mid-May meeting with China since the U.S. has not seen any new crop soybean business or any of the 8 MMT of old crop purchases announced by President Trump.

“Since President Trump mentioned the 8 million metric ton of additional purchases, I mean, they’ve kind of drawn a line in the sand that they’re willing to buy. U.S. ag products, but soybeans aren’t probably one of them. You know, the South American crop is big. It’s, what, six, eight million metric ton bigger than this point last year. You know they’re still cheaper than U.S. beans, even without the tariffs they imply. And, the private crusher isn’t going to want to buy anything out of the U.S.” he adds.

Toay thinks the quality of China’s corn crop was poor and they may need corn and they’ve been buying a lot of wheat. “Which they’re trying to blend off and feed. But, you know, export sales today, had 190 million metric ton of sorghum to China. That’s fantastic news, especially for producers in the Southern Plains,” he says.

The Iran war has also drug out longer than President Trump anticipated and is diverting his attention away from trade according to Toay. Still, USTR, Jamieson Greer reiterating this week that China wants to expand ag purchases.

Cattle Bounce or Bottom?
Cattle futures finally broke the six day streak of lower closes since the correction off contract highs on short covering.

The market saw early selling with news of a workers strike at the Ft. Morgan beef plant which slaughters around 4,000 head.

However, the market rebounded well off its lows as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled an appearance in Arizona schedule for Friday that had the market fearful of a border reopening announcement.

“With April expiration or first notice day coming up here and, you know, we’re right here at cash. So the back of my mind, we saw a similar type of price action in the last delivery cycle. And that idea hasn’t lost on me that we may see open interest liquidation by those who don’t want to participate into the delivery cycle or cash settle.”

Still cash is at $246, down $2 and the board is at $2.47 so he says the lows are in line with where cash cattle traded.

High Gas Prices and Consumer Demand
He adds that gas prices are still high at the pump even though crude oil has had a $20 to $30 break.

So he is concerned that beef prices may be too high relative to disposible income and consumers are trading down to cheaper alternative proteins like pork and poultry.

six weeks from a cattle perspective is that I realize it. beef prices are high.

Wheat Rallies on Weather but Fails to Excite Row Crops: When Will the Markets Trade Inflation?

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:57:23 GMT

Soybeans were lower early Thursday with wheat higher and corn trading both sides. Livestock were also lower.

Wheat Holding Weather Premium
Wheat futures were higher on Thursday after some profit taking and a lower close the previous session.

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says wheat is holding weather premium with the deteriorating crop conditions.

“Given what we’ve seen this spring where the winter crops never really went into a full dormancy, at least that’s what I’ve been told. And then we had a warmer winter and they started growing again, then get hit by a March freeze, it grows again, gets hit by an April freeze and so on. So based on all of that and the fact that the drought readings across the Plains continue to worsen, then we could say, yes, this, you know, what we’re seeing here is likely a result of building some weather premium in,” he says.

Does the market needs to add more premium?

Newsom says old crop contract do not with the ample supplies of wheat around the world.

“The reality is if we look at the future spreads, we’re not seeing the commercial side of the market react like we’ve got a supply and demand scare anywhere on the horizon for both hard red winter or soft red winter. Even though I know there’s an asterisk attached due to soft winter being subject to the CME’s lower variable storage rate of 5 cents per bushel per month. We’ve got soft red winter future spreads covering 70% to 80% calculated full commercial carry, which is bearish, which tells us there is no supply concern in relation to demand.”

He says there are also some speculators that are looking at wheat as attractive.

Technically Wheat Unable to Take Out Resistance
Wheat futures have also been unable to take out recent highs which for July HRW wheat would be $6.63.

He says the only thing to get the market above those levels is a continued deterioration of the weekly crop ratings, which could trigger algorithms into buying.

Corn Holding as Farmer Selling Slow
The corn market put in three days of higher closes and is trying to push through resistance on the charts with the help of the wheat market but also slow farmer selling as planting ramps up.

He says that has taken some pressure off the cash market and basis has firmed.

“If we look at the National Corn Index, we see that it has been firming in relation to the futures market. So we know basis has been firming. Now, I say that, and it’s an interesting situation in the national average basis market for corn in the fact that it has been firming. We have seen the cash market pick up a little bit as sales have slowed and demand still is out there. But if we look at the big picture and we look at the previous five-year low weekly closes and 10-year low weekly closes, You know, the market’s still running below those levels. So we know overall national average basis is weak. This tells us there’s still ample supplies to meet demand. It’s just immediate term. Those supplies have slowed down. Farmers are doing other things. They’ve gone out to the field,” he says.

Corn Hits Chart Resistance
Exports were also strong on Thursday at 51.8 million bu. but the market is still running up into stiff chart resistance.

Funds are holding a large net long futures position in corn so with the market up into the upper end of the trading range it may spark some selling eventually he says.

“So when we get these rallies and when we start testing those high ends of the sideways range you know it’s probably going to generate some selling for lack of any real commercial support coming in,” he says.

Soybeans and Bean Oil Look Technically Weak?
Soybeans and bean oil were lower on Thursday morning after November beans put in a double top on the charts and bean oil made new contract highs and then ended lower, scoring a key reversal.

Newsom says that technical damage doesn’t mean as much as it used to with today’s algorithm traders but is still generating new selling in the market.

“The algorithms just simply don’t look at double tops and they don’t look at key reversals and they don’t look at these sorts of things in the soybean oil market,” he says.

The strength recently in soybean oil has been tied to the diesel fuel market which was cooling a bit Thursday morning and that was also weighing on futures.

Newsom also points out the speculators were holding a record long position in bean oil. “And so this normally opens the door to some liquidation and so beans are just along for the ride because there are no other changes in fundamentals.”

Beyond profit taking the soybean market continues to trade concern about the mid-May meeting with China and the impact the ongoing war with Iran will have on the outcome. Days when the war tensions rise it weighs on soybeans.

Grains Divorcing From War or Will Inflationary Buying Kick In?
With the exception of the the bean oil and canola markets, Newsom says the rest of the grain space has seemingly tried to divorce from the war headlines and energy markets.

“I don’t think the grain sector is really watching all of the changing headlines but it gets caught up in it you know once the headlines change or are manipulated for market moving reasons,” he adds.

The next key will be when does inflation risk start to be traded in the grain markets, especially if energy prices remain elevated?

He says, “I think grains are out there. They will be an opportunity, I think, that will be looked at with some of these new traders and inflation.”

There will also be inflation tied to higher input prices and Newsom says he doesn’t think the fund traders take that into account.

“But the commercial side of these markets will certainly take it into account. So let’s say that because of input costs, we’re going to even plant fewer corn acres. We’re going to start to see that if it’s a real situation, if it’s really happening, we’re going to see that in those deferred corn future spreads. And if more acres are going over to soybeans at a time when there’s a serious doubt about global demand for U.S. soybeans, then I think we’re going to see the opposite trade starting to develop. We’re going to see more carry being built into this soybean spreads. And a lot of this, again, will have to do with U.S. inflation, input costs, and so on,” he says.

But Newsom adds that bottom line the algorithms don’t care if U.S. producers can’t make money.

“Never have, never will. It’s just not important until it actually starts to change the supply and demand situation. And we’ll first know that through basis and spreads.”

Inflation Fear Keeps Interest Rates Flat
The fear of inflation will likely also mean no change in interest rates next week at the FOMC meeting.

“Yeah, the inflation fears probably have put any idea of a rate cut on hold for the time being. And as we look at the Fed fund futures forward curve, there’s nothing expected to happen now through the balance of 2026. Shortly after the U.S. President went to war on Iran, we saw the October-November futures contracts, or the Fed Fund futures contracts, dip to a point where it was indicating a rate hike, possibly this fall. So, but that’s been erased as well as, you know, the status quo settled in. Nothing really expected to change. We’re also going to, except for the fact that we’ll have a new chair, theoretically. And reportedly after this meeting, I think Chairman Powell’s term ends in May. And so, you know, then we’ll see what direction the Fed starts to take.”

Grains Disappoint, See Profit Taking Off Highs Despite China Rumors: Cattle Hold Support

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 21:46:03 GMT

The soy complex was lower on Wednesday as well as wheat with fractional gains in corn. Live cattle ended lower, with feeder cattle and hogs mixed.

Soybeans and Bean Oil End Off Highs
Soybeans ended 10 3/4 lower on July at $11.79 1/2 with November down 10 1/2 at $11.56.

Soybeans made new highs for the move and November came within a 1/4 cent of the March highs overnight on talk of China looking for soybeans of the Pacific Northwest.

The market looked like it was ready to breakout but Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says soybeans hit chart resistance and saw profit taking.

“Profit taking was part of it. We have to keep in mind, too, as we go into the end of the month here, you’re also going to have some option expiration and first notice day against those May contracts. So any traction we get here in the short term could get faded. So far, that seems to be playing out.”

However, the deliver period is slow with producers in the field and he says once they’re done there will be some steady sales again in June.

Soy Processing Demand Hold up Soybeans
The board crush margins for soybeans are over $3.30 so they are huge and also helped drive the recent strength.

He says, “These processors probably went out there and locked all those margins in early. And so the only trade left is their out trade. The producer is pretty well out of beans. I think that’s part of this, you know, just contentment in the bean market that we’ve seen for the past month.”

China Buying Beans?
The rumors of China buying helped provide early support.

While there was no confirmation of the business Hudson says he wouldn’t rule it out before the mid-May meeting.

“I certainly think they could. I think it’s going to come down to quantities and timing. I would have confidence that you’re going to see that get pulled through. I would still favor that a lot of that, if it comes to us in a positive way, is still going to end up landing on the new crop balance sheet. But we have to remember back in February, they bought beans when it really wasn’t that advantageous for them to.”

He adds that if China has made some deals to help end the Iran war soybeans could be added to the mix, especially as inflationary pressures are continuing to build with high energy prices.

“That would be an eye opener for the trade because we’re about 100 million ahead on our crush demand. And if you have to bring our exports up to on this old crop, you know, how do you reconcile that on the balance sheet?”

Multi-Year Highs in Bean Oil
Soybean oil also hit multi-year and new contract highs before ending lower on the day. Is that reversal a concern?

Hudson says, “When you look at yesterday’s bar you know one day doesn’t really define a market and we continue to see a you know a lot of interest in this. I think the processor I think this will translate to a pretty strong bid as you get into harvest because I mentioned them locking in some of these margins in early even off the heels of the Venezuelan situation and then Iran got thrown on top and those margins have only gotten better.”

So he thinks they will be aggressive buyers at harvest through the end of the year.

Corn Also Hits Resistance
Corn was up for a third day on technical buying but ended well off session highs at $4.62 3/4 on the July, up 3/4 and December was a 1/2 higher at $4.82 1/4.

Hudson says that market also hit chart resistance and was pulled down by lower soybeans and profit taking.

“This is just kind of a resistance trade. You got the December back to the $4.85 and every month you go that’s closer to us in time. It seemed like it was just a little bit weaker and that’s evidence that those front end spreads are starting to give a little bit of that and once again we’ve got enough supply to meet the demand. So, as long as you don’t see a weather market I would expect that December to lead the way and maybe even the Dec 27 more prevalently if you don’t have any issues,” he adds.

Dec 27 Corn Adding Input Premium
He thinks Dec 27 corn is putting in some input premium tied to high priced fertilizer and diesel fuel.

“I think you have to. I mean, I think you have to sit here and question not only where our input costs here come harvest, but how do we see global acreage influenced here over the next six to eight months? We didn’t have a lot to lose here in the U.S. because so much was pre-booked. If it’s not getting on, it’s because they don’t want to pay it. But you could have some other places around the world here, be it for wheat or corn, where they simply don’t even have it available. And that inevitably is going to create some sort of a pinch. We just don’t know how much
yet,” he explains.

Old Crop Corn Capped
He says old crop corn prices are just capped because supplies are too big.

“And as soon as we get done with planting here, the farmer is going to be at the ready to continue trucking season again.”

Fund Liquidation
With option expiration on May options on Friday and first notice day coming up on May futures contracts could there be more long liquidation by the funds?

Hudson says, “They’re not holding a huge, huge position in any of these markets. I mean, I think it’s a tenable level in corn and beans. They’re really not holding much of a position at all in wheat. So I don’t see anything to exploit there. I think it’s going to be more about how they move those positions forward from the May to the July. And even coming into this week, we hadn’t seen a big pulling back in the open interest. So I would not be surprised to see a bit of weakness in this May-July spread. But as you go into, you know, after First Notice Day, you know, keep an eye on that spread as we go into delivery because I still think the processor needs corn they’re going to need to keep that flow and they know it’s out there but they need to keep the pace of it too.”

Wheat Prices in Weather Concerns?
The wheat market saw slight losses of 2 to 6 cents in the three classes on light profit taking and some rain chances in the extended forecast. However, are the weather concerns also priced into the market?

He says, “Yes and keep in mind you know we have some wheat to lose here in the us our stocks usage is still well over 40% so there’s still plenty
sitting around. I think this is more about how it evolves moving forward and how you could compound it. For example, if you got a bad stand and we rip that out and plant soybeans instead, that just adds to this building issue in the background.”

Cattle Hold Support
Live cattle futures were lower for a sixth day and saw more technical selling and long liquidation.

However, the market did hold support.

“Thus far, you know, you could still see the June maybe flush down into those mid-230s, but you’re probably gonna have to have a headline to help facilitate that, especially where you have cash trading right now. But with the concerns you have going into grilling season, you might have enough meat on the bone to take that off if there’s reason for it.”

Feeder Cattle Still Awaiting Border Reopening
The feeder cattle futures ended mixed on Wednesday and are trying to stabilize with the border reopening story still in the background.

A new New World Screwworm (NWS) case 60 miles from the Texas/Mexican border should keep the border closed but it is still political.

Hudson says, “It still is in the background, but it seems like the administration has been a lot more slow to make any comments. And maybe that’s due to the influence we saw earlier in the year because of it. You may have to get through this summer and get to some of these colder months before we can really feel good about having snuff that out and and I kind of think you’re going to be dealing with this all the way through that time frame.”

He thinks the situation is creating a new normal South of the border for feeding cattle as well.

Has the Fed Cash Market Topped?
Some light cash cattle trade has occurred at $246 live and $386 dressed but not enough for a test. Still, the lower trend may indicate a cash top is forming he says.

“But I don’t see no reason for it to completely collapse. You know, you could stop the ascent, but, you know, let’s face it, we’re not getting any more animals. You know, any sort of weakness is going to be bought up on the front end again anyway. So I see somewhat limited downside in there still, at least in the interim, especially after the little break that we’ve seen here,” he adds.

He also thinks the futures, at least the nearbys are trying to confirm a top. The jury is out on the deferreds.

“And again, that may mean that some of these back months hold themselves above water and eventually find a bid again. I don’t think that’s necessarily going away, but do we have to continue a lot higher right now? It just doesn’t feel like it. And if you have to turn that market and the energy complex higher again, if we don’t get some sort of a peace deal done or ceasefire done, then it’s going to continue to weigh on things as well,” he says.

Hogs End Mixed But Stabilizing?
Lean hog futures have bounced off the four month lows but is there a fundamental reason for the market to stabilize?

Hudson says, “I think it really comes down to timing. And the hog market actually got a little weaker than I expected testing that $100 mark in the June. I didn’t think we’d have to go down and do that all at once now. But the fact that we did, I think that’s kind of a tradable chart point now that as long as you hold that, I would see that there’s a decent chance of recovery effort back to $105. And then from there, we can maybe see what cattle do into summer.”

Cease Fire But Strait Closed
The markets are getting war fatigue with news the cease fire has been extended with Iran but the Strait is still closed which rallied the crude oil market again Wednesday.

Hudson says the long term impact of the higher energy prices is already starting to surface.

“Yeah. I mean, if you’re a company that has to do any sort of commerce, whether it’s energy or anything else, if you’ve already got a boat out there floating around, you might be committed to figuring out what needs to happen with it. But you’re not sending another one until you have
confirmation and assurance that you can actually do business the way you want to. In the meantime, people are going to try to reroute that, whether it’s fuel, fertilizer, anything that goes into that. A lot of petroleum products that we probably don’t think of in our everyday lives. And you’re seeing about 30% increase in a lot of that stuff. It’s twofold. It’s not only what’s going into the product, but it’s the freight to ship it around the world. And if you think about all those little widgets and every little Amazon box that we have sitting on our front doorstep, to me,
this is just the front end of this thing getting a lot worse here in the next six to eight months.”

So when will the market start trading inflation fears?

He says, “I think as you get into the third, end of the third quarter, beginning of the fourth.”

Still it may not help support old crop grain prices and will have limited impact on new crop with trendline yields.

“But the upside is still somewhat limited as long as the USDA is going to have a reason to advertise trend line yields. And I don’t see any changing of that until maybe earliest end of June, but probably more prevalent with the September stocks report. And by then we’ll have an idea of what those yields look like.”

Corn and Wheat See Higher Week, Watching Weather and War: Cattle Top?

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 22:09:18 GMT

Grains ended mixed Friday with livestock mostly lower.

Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Ag and outside markets reacted Friday to the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and some resolution to end of the war in the Middle East.

The stock market hit new highs, with crude oil dropping over $10, as the market unwound and removed war premium according to Matt Bennett of Agmarket.net.

Grains initially saw pressure in tandem with the plunge in the energy markets on Friday he says.

“You came in on from the overnight and certainly had some pressure you know beans trading down double digits, corn trading down four
five six cents and so you know definitely some pressure that was spilling over from a crude oil market that was down double digits most of the day. So, you know ten dollars lower and clearly we’re trading energy. We know we’ve traded energy but we’ve held to it more on the way down than what we have on the way up, which is the unfortunate thing that we’ve seen as far as corn and soybeans go.”

However, the grain markets closed well off their session lows which was encouraging.

Will Grains See Further Pressure?
Still Bennett says if crude oil continues to extract war premium the grain markets have more downside risk.

“Yeah. You probably could see some pressure here. My gut tells me you’re going to see pressure, which is problematic because, Michelle, the fertilizer situation, for instance, as we look forward towards 27, I don’t think we’re going to be straightened out enough to feel good about what fertilizer prices are going to be. When we look at some of the natural gas facilities that have been taken offline, just the disruption and flow of urea, I’m afraid you’re going to be looking at very high prices for fertilizer once again this year, particularly nitrogen source, which none of us can get around if we’re planting corn.”

He says it is reflected in the higher prices for corn in the far deferred contract as Dec 27 corn is trying to get above $4.90 which doesn’t work with $1,200 anhydrous.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking But Higher for the Week
Wheat saw some profit taking on Friday but ended well off its lows and was up for the week in all three exchanges.

Bennett says the move was justified with the weather issues the hard red winter wheat crop is facing as 68% of the U.S. crop is not facing D1 to D4 drought.

“I mean, there’s certainly a dire situation from a drought perspective in a lot of wheat country, and now you’re talking about potential freeze coming in over the weekend for a lot of people, and unfortunately, that’s not what you want to see for this wheat crop that’s already been through just a pretty tough set of circumstances.”

If the frost materializes over the weekend will wheat see a sharply higher opening on Sunday night?

Bennett says it depends on how far South the freezing temperatures go and how much damage comes as a result.

Corn Follows Wheat, Trades Weather
Corn futures ended mixed on Friday but well off session lows and were higher for the week.

The market clearly got spillover support from the wheat market and held the 200-day moving average support on Friday according to Bennett.

“Which was a good thing to see definitely got some support from the wheat market in my opinion this week but I think there’s also you know a little preemptive concern if you will about cold and wet conditions. And so obviously quite a few folks in Iowa are sitting, Northern Illinois, you get much North of me, there’s not been anything done, you know?”

He says it’s too early for a late planning discussion. “Especially with the kind of equipment we’re all running. Let’s be real about it. But if you get out here another 10 days to two weeks and you still have a wet forecast, that becomes an issue. And so in my opinion, there’s a little bit of that in the market.”

There is also some talk about drier conditions in Brazil for the second crop corn but he isn’t concerned yet.

“But again I think we’re pretty early in the stages there the NDVI maps look really good on that crop right now and you’re going to have to throw quite a bit of dry weather at it to really hurt it,” he explains.

Any losses in Brazil may be offset by a record crop in Argentina. “And if and if it’s a 65 to 67 million ton record crop Michelle, that’s bearish. I mean, there’s no way to look at it unless you would happen to lose 10 million tons off the Safrihna crop.”

Can Corn Build on the Higher Week?
Funds have been liquidating in the corn market but with the 200 day moving average support area holding and a higher weekly close can the market technically build on it?

Bennett says, “Boy, that’s a tough call, Michelle. I mean, the chart doesn’t look great. Let’s be honest. It looks like we’ve probably put a high end for the time being. But at this stage of the game, you know, it’s going to be make or break time over the next eight to 10 weeks. You know, what does this crop go in like, first of all? Second of all, how do we go into pollination from a moisture standpoint? Do we get it in later than what we want to get it in?”

He says that is important because the U.S. still grows the biggest corn crop in the world, eclipsing Brazil by three times.

“And so the markets can be paying very close attention to what happens here in the U.S. over the next few weeks.”

Soybeans Lower on Rising Acreage?
So if corn is losing acres did soybean prices fall this week because of the idea those will be shifted over to soybeans?

Bennett thinks that is the case. “And, you know, the last two weeks, corn’s closed lower on the week and beans have closed higher on the week.
And so I do think that some of this has kind of come back a little bit. There’s probably some folks that maybe decided to spread that somewhat. But at the same time, I’ve got to think that the acres discussion is something that people are looking at closely.”

He says while the market is buying it just yet if the forecast stays wet for a couple more weeks it will get more attention.

Soybeans Still Sideways
Despite the lower weekly close soybeans are trading withing a trading range held for a several week.

“The old adage that beans don’t typically like to spend a lot of times in the $11s. I mean, shoot, $11.50 to $11.80. You know, that’s been an area where the bean market seemed perfectly comfortable this time around. And so are we going to break out of that range? I think at some point
you do. The problem is if we see increased acreage you could loosen up the balance sheet,” he explains.

Crush is at record levels with over 200 million bu. crushed every month so domestic use is good and Bennett says the strong RVO number is helping.

Crush margins at $3 a bushel should keep the market well supported and basis has narrowed around soy processing plants.

Cattle End Lower on Border Reopening Fears
Cattle were lower on Friday but ended well off session lows.

The market tanked around 10:00 am on fears USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins might announce the border was reopening to Mexican cattle at a ground breaking for the NWS sterile fly production facility in Texas. When she didn’t make the announcement the market rallied off the lows.

Is the High In?
So it the top in the cattle market especially after the market made record highs and then ended lower for the week?

“I’ve thought the top was in more than once on this cattle market,” he says, “And then we come in here recently, of course, put a new high in this week. It looks like kind of a double top that we potentially have put in but at the same time, we know from a fundamental standpoint, this market strong as an ox,” he adds.

He says if the border does reopen to Mexican imports the market will correct as it frees those cattle up to come into Southern feedyards.

“And some people, quite frankly, are clamoring to have those cattle come in. Now, most people don’t like it, but if you’re in that part of the world, it’s been awfully hard to source your feeders. And so, yeah, I don’t know what’s going to happen. Once the opening happens, you’re probably going to see a short-term drop, but at the same time, is it going to fix anything from a long-term standpoint? No.”

Cash is King
Fed cash trade was mostly steady for the week at $248 live but a disappointing encore when there was some record $250 trades in the North last week.

However, if the market is higher next week he says you can’t rule out that the futures could retest the highs.

“Whether you’re talking fats or feeders, there’s no bargains right now as far as on the buy side. If you’re on the sell side, you’re smiling as big as you can smile. And so, you know, you see even in our part of the world, $250 plus fats. And I mean, that’s just pretty salty money, you know, for a lot of folks. And fortunately, it’s one of those situations that a lot of people have been waiting for this for a long time. And then they continue to think, hey, this is going to go away sooner or later. And it just hasn’t yet. And so could we make new highs? Yes. I think we can still make new
highs. Am I betting on it? Not necessarily.”

Has the Cattle Market Finally Topped on Fear of Border Reopening? Grains Fall as Strait Opened

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:54:43 GMT

Markets started Friday lower except for cattle but after 10:00 am Central Time the cattle futures tanked.

Cattle Bounce Early
Cattle futures were slightly higher early on Friday in tandem with the stock market soaring into record territory and plunging crude oil futures with word the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that provided and early bounce for cattle after two down days tied to profit taking but then the market crashed.

He says with prices at record highs the risk is high.

“We’ve got an on-feed report coming up with 100% on-feed estimate, and we are $50 higher than where we were last year on the same cattle on-feed. So we’re at some impressive levels here, Michelle.”

Is a Top In the Cattle Market?
The cattle market was overbought which triggered some profit taking and with futures tanking on Friday it will confirm a lower weekly close and reversal off of record highs.

So will that also confirm a top in the cattle market?

Varilek says, “That’s going to be the question here because it it looks like hey look at the time of year we’re in we’re at the time of year we can put a high in charts almost look like it you know we drove through make contract highs closed all the gaps and then what was the encore not much we drifted a little bit lower. So, for about the you know 75th time we’ll try to call a top in this market but it I don’t know that we want to try to do that it’s just the potential is there for it you know,” he says.

April live cattle futures did get over $250 and the contract was slammed with a bunch of deliveries as well which is bearish.

“We’ve got 20 deliveries and three retenders on the market so we are just seeing that starting to act a little bit more sloppy here,” he adds.

Line in the Sand for Funds is $243
The line in the sand on a technical basis for the funds to defend their longs is $243 on the June live cattle chart says Varilek.

“Funds don’t sell highs. They don’t buy lows. Once the chart starts to flip and their signals start to go off, whether it’s crossing moving averages, whether it’s coming off of being overbought, then they start to unwind positions. And it kind of sounds like around that $243 area on the June is
the spot that they’re looking at,” he says.

As of mid-session that low had held but for how long?

“There’s the old saying never be short June cattle in the month of May. Yes we’re in different times now you know it’s going to be wild as high as we are but that’s that’s how the market could feel so long story short $243 is a spot that I would think that we need to hold for that,” he adds.

Fear of Border Reopening
Fundamentally what has spooked the market is the fear of USDA announcing the border reopening as Secretary Brooke Rollins will be announcing the ground breaking of the New World Screwworm facility in Texas on Friday morning.

The fear is she could also announce the resumption of Mexican cattle imports.

Varilek says, “I mean, will there be an announcement? Will there not? We’re just kind of all hands on deck, kind of watching and wondering what she’s going to say. So going down for some groundbreaking of the facility. But you just would expect that she’s going to say something.
Okay. What kind of plan are we going to softly open a port and get some cattle coming across? And I think that’s what we’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks. So it’s not brand new, but I think that’s our expectations is that she will say something.”

He thinks the timing is odd as the weather is getting warmer which more easily allows the fly to migrate North versus the winter time.

However, it won’t be as big of an impact as feared due to the staggered reopening and the fact Mexico has developed its own feeding capacity.

“You know, they’ve been able to kill the cattle down there and ship the meat up here. So they may not be as eager to send near as many numbers as what they had planned before. So I feel like it’s negative to the market, but maybe not as negative as it probably used to be months ago.”

Cash Disappoints
Cash trade also developed on a light basis on Thursday at $248 live and mostly $388 up to $342 dressed, which is steady money with last week but a disappointment to the market.

“I mean, it was last week. It was these $248 bids and only one regional out there getting some $250, maybe a little disappointing. And I think everybody wanted that round $250 number so we could just feel good about it. It would have traded if it hit. Packers really dug their heels in and they’re sitting at $248. And now we have some sloppy trade this week. A lot of $248 starting to trickle around. I know several people have taken it and a couple dollars off of $250 is still a great price. These cattle are going to probably make some money up here because we’ve got extra days on feed. We’re making them bigger. Hard to say pass on that.”

Cattle on Feed Report
The market was also seeing some positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed report which is expected to be somewhat bullish.

The on feed estimate is 100%, placements at 93% and marketings at 94%.

“The South placements are going to be much lower and that’s, what’s really pulling this down. So, so that feels okay. You know that, Hey, when we’re. We’re still seeing the tight numbers, the on-feed number.”

Next month that could change as some of the feeder are being moved off grass and wheat pastures early due to drought.

Feeder Cattle Cash Index Hits Record High
This week the feeder cattle cash index hit a record high of $379.09 which is also supportive.

“That’s been strong. And feeders have been what’s bailing out this market. You know, that’s still the case.”

Lean Hogs Make New Lows
Lean hog futures are down a 9th day and making more new lows for the move but will the market find support soon on the charts?

Varilek says, “Hogs are trendy and it’s making a third leg lower. So Elliott Wave people, chart people, you might look at that and wonder, okay, so when it holds, you almost need to wait for that confirmation before you can kind of really jump into that market. Let it trend lower here. I think that cash and cutouts have been a little bit sloppy here looking for that to get better I think here rather soon.”

He bases that on the disease issues in the herd and eventually that will produce a marketing hole.

Grains Tank as Strait of Hormuz Opens
The grains are all lower on Friday taking out war premium with the Strait of Hormuz opening back up.

Varilek says, “Crude oil down $10 here today. Grains did put a little bit of premium on for that, and now we’re just taking that off. The equities are impressive how they can rally on back. So, as of now we’re feeling this war is going to stop or get better but not super confident. And wheat could not take out the April highs so it saw some profit taking and so is the rest of the grain complex.”

Wheat Rallies on Weather, Corn and Soybeans Fall on Profit Taking

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 22:04:39 GMT

Ag markets ended mostly lower on Thursday except for wheat and bean oil.

KC Wheat Makes Fresh Highs
Wheat futures rallied on Thursday adding weather premium with expanding drought and a mostly dry forecast for the Western third of the Plains says Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing.

“On Monday’s weekly crop progress ratings, we saw the good to excellent category for wheat decline yet another notch. And it just really shows
how poor things are with some producers even starting to talk about abandonment of those acres. And so when you add that onto the fact that, you know, we are seeing in the United States the lowest planted acres of wheat in decades, it really makes it tricky for us to know for sure,
like going forward, you know, what are we going to have for supply here in the United States?”

She says there is also talk about the world fertilizer crunch and key production areas not being able to get fertilizer or prices being too high because of the conflict in the Middle East.

Can Wheat Continue to Rally?
Hard red winter wheat contracts took out the March highs and made new highs for the move but is there enough ammunition fundamentally to keep the rally going?

Blohm says, “I would say in the short term, meaning like going into Friday, it might be questionable because we could see some profit taking. But over the weekend, if the Plains still don’t receive rain or if things continue to flare up in the Middle East, that could be supportive for trade next week to justify that market to move higher. Because when you look even at the weather forecast over the next two weeks, there’s not much rain relief in sight for the Western Plains and Southern Plains. And so unless the forecast changes, the wheat market should be supported for the short term.”

Markets Trade Like War is Over
At the same time most of the grain market is trading like the war is over.

Blohm says there just hasn’t been any fresh bullish news. “There hasn’t been enough new dramatic headlines to shake crude oil out of the trading range and the trading range of course is large so for crude oil we’re looking at major overhead resistance at $120 a barrel but big support is at $80 and so as long as there’s just moderate back and forth talking, the crude oil market just doesn’t have a reason to necessarily trade out of that range one way or the other right now.”

However, if there is any headline over the weekend the market could move higher and pull the grain market with it.

Corn Can’t Follow Wheat
Corn tried to follow wheat early in the day but gave up gains to close lower and putting in a disappointing finish.

Blohm says the market ran into chart resistance and saw profit taking.

“Definitely. That’s exactly what happened. So without enough fresh, friendly news on its own merit, what we saw was the. corn futures contracts test short-term overhead resistance in the form of some different moving averages and then just didn’t have a reason to get through it so a little bit of a price pullback it wouldn’t surprise me if corn futures prices trade in a very cautious sideways trading pattern for maybe another week because we still have plenty of things to be watching in terms of weather and in terms of the Middle East.”

Otherwise, she says corn futures don’t have a reason to stage a big rally or a reason to break.

In fact, when prices fell she says the market did spur some demand.

“We saw some decent flash sales for exports. So it does show that countries are paying attention, that when our prices just get a little bit cheaper. We’re seeing exports pick up. We had amazing weekly ethanol numbers this week, higher than expectations. So the demand is there and that’s going to keep the market supported. But we’re just in the short term lull for news. Again, one eye on weather, one eye on war.”

Too Early for Weather Concerns
She says although there has been talk of planting delays it is too early for the market to get real concerned until late April.

“I know that there’s a lot of producers who over the past couple of years have been used to getting planting a little bit early. So they’re getting
a little bit anxious about it. And the weather conditions around the Midwest are just all over the place. Some places are able to get planted because it’s been so dry. Portions of Iowa just getting about a quarter inch of rain every other day and it’s humid. So it’s keeping things on the wetter side there. They haven’t had the ability to dry out. Wisconsin, we have flooding in west of Green Bay. So that’s become an issue and it’s just been kind of hit or miss. So I think for the market, it’s really going to take until the end of April before we start getting a little bit nervous,” she explains.

Soybeans Also Hit Resistance
Soybeans were also higher early in the session in tandem with wheat but couldn’t close higher on Thursday running up into chart resistance just like corn and saw profit taking.

Blohm says soybeans were supported Wednesday by the positive commentary from President Trump on his social media that he will be meeting with President Xi of China in a few weeks here. So that gave the market a supportive tone yesterday. But then when the export sales came out this morning, just not a lot of fresh news there. So we have strong domestic demand from the crush. And that information was out yesterday, which was supportive. But again, not enough fresh news this morning. to justify a further rally. So just a little bit of profit taking and got to keep those day traders happy.”

Soybeans Sideways Until China Meeting
Soybeans have been sideways on a combination of strong crush and hopes for more China business and so that could continue for a while.

“So for about the past three or four weeks, old crop beans, new crop beans, if you look at a daily chart, it feels like every other day, there’s either a signal that technically would suggest, hey, maybe the prices are going to go higher, either bullish key reversal or outside bullish reversal,
but then just give it a couple days and the technical indicators turn a little bit negative to where there’s a bearish reversal or a bearish hook reversal. And we’ve seen that price scenario about four or five times now. So what it tells us is that the market is really teetering on every
single piece of news that’s out there in terms of crush demand, in terms of watching export demand, keeping an eye on the weather in South America and harvest progress down there, keeping an eye on the weather in the United States, trying to understand where the acres are actually going to be,” she explains.

She says the longer the market trades sideways the more explosive a breakout could be.

“We’re poised to see either a 50 cent move higher or lower, depending ultimately on where the fundamentals lie. If the fundamentals lean friendly, we are going to definitely go back up and test those March highs on the old crop. But if fundamentals start to lean negative, then we could very easily slip about 50 cents lower in the short term. So really pay attention to these markets.”

That makes getting some of the 8 MMT of old crop soybean sales made to China or the market could fall apart.

Soybean Acres Rising?
USDA raised acreage 3.5 million in the March report but there is also talk of even more soybean acres due to the problems getting fertilizer for the corn crop and due to the high prices.

“It’s really hard to quantify because people aren’t really in the fields yet to know for sure. So wanting to keep an eye on the situation, wanting to talk to see dealers to see if there’s been any switching, it is something that could really be a shocker. in a few weeks as the planters get rolling.
And then of course, we’ll know for sure better what the June 30th report has to say for the planted acres. But it would really affect the balance sheets if the soybeans gain more acres than what we’re expecting,” she adds.

Cattle Consolidate on Profit Taking?
Cattle markets were lower for a second day on profit taking off of contract highs but also some nervousness about the border reopening to Mexican cattle imports.

“Then we saw a little bit of technical selling once prices went below the five-day and the 10-day moving average. And then news-wise today, Secretary Rollins is going to be in Texas on Friday, and she’s going to be speaking around 11 o’clock Central Time. So we’re going to try to get some more information on that border. Is it going to stay closed? Is there any... of it opening. And then, of course, on Friday afternoon at two o’clock is the cattle and feed report. So plenty of things for this cattle market to be watching for. Still the conversation, too, of higher crude oil prices and with higher energy prices, are families able to spend more money at the grocery store or not because they have to spend
higher. prices at the pump. So that conversation is all tucked in there. So I’d say it’s a little bit cautious right now. The market is supported fundamentally, yet at the same time, it’s wondering how much friendly news is actually there to justify one more leg higher or not.”

Grains Try to Extend Gains Led by Wheat on Drought Concerns: Cattle Further Correct

Thu, 16 Apr 2026 16:16:13 GMT

Grains higher, livestock lower early Thursday.

Grains Higher Led by Wheat on Drought Concerns
Grains are higher early Thursday led by wheat.

DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says funds are buying and covering short positions due to expanded drought in hard red winter wheat country on Thursday’s U.S. Drought Monitor and the lower crop conditions.

“Yeah, it is definitely all about the weather. Supply and demand-wise, you don’t have a great story in wheat, but you keep watching it. It’s a hard red winter wheat you know story is what it is. There’s this wall of rain that happens on the Eastern side of the Southern Plains and on the West
where a lot of the production has been very dry and the market’s starting to realize like wow, this isn’t just a air quotes talk story anymore. Like there’s really some production losses happening. A lot of fields will go unharvested. So now the market’s job is trying to figure out how low that production is going to be. And boy, that’s a hard job for the market to figure out.”

However Kansas City or HRW wheat is sharply higher and getting close to contract highs try to make that calculation he says.

March Highs Important in Wheat
Technically the wheat market needs to take out the March highs to keep the rally going according to Bosse.

“Yeah, that would sure be nice. Otherwise, it just looks like another failed attempt at those highs. And when I look at Chicago and Minneapolis, especially Minneapolis, let me talk about that. I’m in spring wheat area up here. I feel like, guys, we don’t have a shortage of supply. Now, we are expected to have less acres this year, but rally to $6.90 for new crop Minneapolis wheat feels like an area we need to be hedging.”

Spring wheat is concerned about not getting acres planted with the uncooperative weather forecast for the Northern Plains and historically low planting intentions.

Corn Following Wheat?
Corn was strong on its own yesterday but started off lower on Thursday morning and then bounced.

Exports were at 55.2 mb by were no runaway, so is the market following the rally in wheat?

Bosse says, “I think the funds are back in buying the corn market, and I’m excited about that. After kind of a month of a downward trend in corn and me being kind of annoyed because I’m a little friendly to the market, thinking that there’s a fertilizer story, there’s less acre story, there’s bullish stories that should rally this market. There was a war going on, Michelle, that actually rallied the energies, and corn really, to me, never did participate in that, really, the way it should have. So I’m excited to see the funds finally step back in. It’s hard to know when and why they do their things, but the last two days, I’m just talking, just watching the trade action. It just felt like they were coming back in that market.”

Corn Losing Acres?
So is corn losing acres due to higher fertilizer prices and availability? Or even weather?

Bosse says that is an evolving story. “There’s a story out there, and I think that story will probably get pretty loud here that fertilizer availabilities price will probably lose some acres. And I think that’s what we trade in the short term. But I think longer term, I think those acres do get planted.”

However that is because he thinks USDA was too low on the total principal crop acres on the March 31st planting intentions report.

“I think there could be three or four million acres out there as long as prevent plant doesn’t get bad this year. So honestly, come June 30th, I’m maybe on an island saying this, but I wouldn’t be shocked if corn acres are up a little bit. But that’s down the road. That’s June 30th. Here in the short term, I think we’re going to get a story about, you know, our farmers going to plant that much corn or not.”

Soybeans Extend Gains
Soybeans opened lower on Thursday with a marking year low export figure of only 9.1 million bu. but then bounced back.

Soybeans have been trading sideways but rallied Wednesday on optimism about an end to the Iran war and optimism about the mid-May meeting in China after President Trump posted a positive note on Truth Social.

“I think yesterday the rally we had was really all about Trump’s post about how when he meets President Xi out of China next month, he’s going to give him a big fat hug because he’s so happy with us right now. We’ve opened the Strait of Hormuz. Soybeans often just took off then. Because I think they think, well, if China’s happy with us, then maybe they’ll buy those old crop bushels that we’ve been promised or talked about for so long. So I think that’s what they traded yesterday.”

Crush Margins Near Record
The other supportive factor is that crush margins are near $3 a bushel so processors are making money allowing them to bid up for soybeans especially as farmers are busy in the fields.

“I think soybean oil, I figured that probably made a high when crude oil made a high, right? I think that market will come down. But it’s been really impressive. And something I’ve been concerned about is now we’re going to have the oil demand for soybean oil but what do we do with
all the extra meal well the answer is we have to export it.”

That demand for the products is helping hold up soybeans.

Technically Soybeans Negate Reversal
Technically the November soybeans have negated the reversal on Monday but old crop soybeans have not.

He explains, “November beans continue to look strong and they should you know a little bit of weather premium are we going to get all the crop planted you know we do that this time of year but no July is actually quite a ways from negating that key reversal. I think that reversal if that holds this week it’s going to look kind of ugly for old crop.”

Market Acts Like War is Over
President Trump says the Iran war is nearly over and there are plans for a second round of peace talks and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz is gradually underway.

Outside markets are already acting like the war is over says Bosse.

“I think he went in there thinking this was going to be a three- or four-day war and found out it’s not. And when it comes to people, like the regime, the old regime that’s in Iran, like you never really win. They will fight till the bitter end. And I think Trump wants out because I think
he didn’t like seeing the stock market go lower and he didn’t like high fuel prices. And bang, that didn’t take long. And the stock market made new highs yesterday. So I think for the most part, it’s over.”

However, he thinks it will take a while to normalize the markets.

“Do I think crude oil is going back to $55? Absolutely not. I think we found good support just about $85 yesterday. I think we have high fuel prices all summer and that might put some pressure on some of our other markets like livestock here too. Well, just because you open the
Strait of Hormuz, you don’t get oil production back up to normal levels here for a while.”

So fuel and fertilizer prices could stay higher for longer due to the damage from the Iran war.

Cattle Correct
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower seeing continued profit taking off the new contract highs scored on Tuesday.

Some of the selloff was positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Additionally there were some stories posted on social media that could have triggered the selloff, including a Mexican official saying the border was going to reopen. That was followed by a USDA post that said that story was false.

“There was a screw worm casev close to the border and it is funny how when Mexico gets a screw worm case it’s it’s bullish for us but as it gets closer to the border I think more people are getting nervous this is eventually going to cross the border and we’re going to have a problem. There was also some talk of getting that border reopened but as you and I have talked when they do open it, it’s not going to be a floodgate. They’re going to open it from west to east and it’ll be Arizona first. It won’t be this flood of cattle. But I think hearing some people from Mexico say that that border is going to be opening soon, maybe had a negative turn on the feeder cattle market and maybe the live cattle today.”

However, he says the market is also overbought.

Higher Cash Leads the Market Back Higher
The correction may be healthy and to be expected going into a report but if cash trade is higher again this week the market could shoot back up into contract highs he says.

“Last week was kind of interesting. The higher cash cattle trade popped the market, obviously. Future’s kind of anticipating it. But we didn’t have a lot of trade. Packers’ profit margins have gone deep in the red. And I know everyone out there goes, I don’t care if packers are losing money. Oh, you do. I mean, the more money they make, at least they try to pass it on a little bit, or at least they’re more willing to buy the cattle. This week, I don’t know if they have much of a choice. I think the inventory is really short. Everyone’s kind of talked about this production hole
we have, right? The yearlings have been fed out and killed, and we don’t quite have that new crop of calves coming in yet. So they might just have to pay up this week. But I am watching boxed beef closely, Michelle. I feel like that price, you know, about $20 off the highs, does need to get back up there to help packers keep hiring the cash price.”

New Lows on Hogs
Lean hogs are also lower with cattle and making new lows for the move again, the 8th straight day down.

The market took out some key support but will it find some stability soon?

“I’ve seen cash and cutouts starting to come back a little bit, Michelle. So I feel like we should find support here. Not to mention this cattle hog spread is just historically wide. I would think there’d be some old school spreaders that would want to jump back in on this and demand will
be good for pork this summer too. But I think it is interesting to point out that in the rest of the world, you know, we’re actually fairly high priced in pork here. So there’s just a lot of production in the world right now. So we don’t have to go higher, but I do think with our cash
market going higher, we should find support soon.”

Grains Rally as War and China Fears Ease, Focus Turns to Weather: Cattle Correct

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 22:49:26 GMT

Grains ended higher Wednesday with livestock mostly lower.

Grains Rally as War Fears Ease, Attention Shifts to Weather
Grains were higher on Wednesday with Iran war fears subsiding and the markets more able to focus on their own fundamentals.

Rich Nelson with Allendale says while he doesn’t agree with it, the corn market was seeing some weather premium added on concerns about planting delays which takes away the argument for record acreage.

“This forecast does have above normal rain still lined up for the next two weeks. So we’re going to finish out April with a good replenishing moisture situation, but we’re not going to be advanced as far as planting. Let’s make that argument here,” he explains.

However, he is paying more attention to the Climate Prediction Center’s new summer forecast coming out later this week.

Corn Losing Acres Due to Fertilizer Prices?
Is the U.S. corn market also losing some acres this spring due to the higher price of fertilizer and the inability to get product due to the closure of the Strait of Hormuz?

Nelson says they are confident that USDA will be lowering corn acreage again.

“They were 3.5 million acres lower on that March survey. Our own survey suggested 5.1 million acres lower. So we do expect a decline. In our point of view, we’re not yet really going to say that the U.S. new crop story is going to be a yield hit based on the fertilizer issue,” he says.

In fact, he thinks it might be more of an issues this fall when Brazil starts planting and then during the U.S. fall application period after harvest.

“That’s where we probably will see some more valid discussion regarding lighter fertilizer usage. So I personally am not changing yield arguments here just yet,” he adds.

Corn Demand Uncovered
Corn falling to the lower end of its price range it saw a technical bounce but also uncovered some export demand with Mexico and unknown destinations showing up on flash sales on Tuesday.

Nelson says it shows that U.S. corn is a value at these levels.

Is Corn Bottoming?
Technically the market also saw some short covering after bouncing off support. So it this bottoming action?

He says, “So corn is in a downtrend. We can argue at least we have broken above that severe short-term downtrend line with this week’s minor rebound. I’m not quite ready to say we have a major low in place here just yet, but certainly we are seeing a few stories begin to develop here at this lower in the price range where we can say at least further lower pricing might have a little cushion behind it here.”

Soybeans Bounce
Soybeans bounced after two down days in part due to renewed optimism about the China mid-May meeting, a strong NOPA crush report and weather with rain in the two-week forecast according to Nelson.

“I would certainly say that that NOPA crush report for March, 16% over last year. Now, even considering the fact there was an extra plant this year, the NOPA mix versus the non-NOPA mix versus last year, is still a strong NOPA crush. So even though exports are a poor story for U.S. soybeans, we have an exact offset right now from the crush story.”

China Optimism?
So the market is holding a bit of China premium as the mid-May summit approaches.

“I think from a psychological basis, maybe you can argue it’s a discussion simply because Trump has mentioned Xi in recent days. But really, from a realistic standpoint, how many of us are expecting any type of new second round of buying from China for this old crop story? But
realistically, does China need to buy the second round of soybeans for the old crop side? On that end, I’m not quite sure there. It’s more likely they’re going to buy other crops, right?”

He thinks China will buy a small amount of sorghum, even corn and other crops but the soybean purchases could be a disappointment.

“I give maybe a 10% chance at some small corn wheat buys. Myself, I’m not really on board with the idea that they’re going to buy soybeans here,” he says.

That is because Brazil is still cheaper than the U.S. in the soybean export market but at least the difference in narrowing.

“Seasonally, Brazil does go to their largest price discount versus the U.S. and that’s in prior weeks and that was seen anywhere from around $55
per metric ton. It has decreased it’s down to about $30 per ton but still that’s more than we need to be to see a second round of U.S. soybean buys,” he says.

Argentina Strike, Tax Holiday
Nelson says news of a trucker strike at Argentina ports and a possible export tax holiday also weighed on soybeans the last couple of sessions and maybe more so on the meal market.

Wheat Rebounds to Close Higher
Wheat was lower early on rain in the extended forecast but came back to close higher on spillover from corn and soybeans. Plus, Nelson says the market needs to hold weather premium in the HRW market, not the other two classes.

“Let’s point out at least the spreads are changing. The past three days, we have seen a clear movement back towards those KC Chicago spreads, Minneapolis, Chicago spreads. And that’s where we probably need to see and price the situation is. We should certainly price it more as a spread issue rather than a wheat threatened story here.”

He says they will be watching the Climate Prediction Center’s outlook to see if it continues to show dryness in the Plains through summer.

“So I do think that the CPC’s numbers will be a market mover and certainly getting us a point of interest, especially for hard red wheat. Keep in mind, though, in the trades mindset, given the fact that CPC was wrong last year, maybe we have a little caution here this year.”

Wheat Needs to Take Out March Highs
The wheat market also needs to take out the March highs to continue to see technical buying.

“And two of these contracts have gaps waiting at higher prices on the charts. You mentioned the March highs as well. So I do think we make some arguments there. Seasonally, though, and also even in years with a weather threat. Typically, this is not a rally which just keeps on going and going. Typically, there is a short-term rally, strong and looking like a spike, into the late April, early May time of year. But typically this is not a long lasting rally that goes forever. So I do think there’s a good chance of taking out those March highs. I’m not sure how much we can go past that point though.”

Cattle Consolidate
Cattle ended mostly lower and consolidated after new contract and some all-time highs in live cattle on Tuesday.

He says it is likely routine profit taking and report positioning with the Cattle on Feed on Friday.

“I would say so. And certainly for this cattle market, this has exceeded everybody’s expectations these past two weeks. The market, number one, has removed all prior concerns it had regarding processing. And also at the same time, it’s also removed all concerns regarding the U.S. consumer. And I’m looking at the EIA data here from this morning. Despite the fact we’ve had a $1.23 rally in retail gas prices over seven weeks, believe it or not, our gasoline usage is actually higher than last year over this past seven-week period. Bulls do have a valid argument for right now. Somehow, the U.S. consumer is weathering every storm and still spending money on beef.”

Hogs Make New Lows for the Move
The hog market made new lows for the move and was down a 7th day. With April expiring at noon can the market stabilize?

Nelson says,"We had about a two-week break in cash hogs and cash pork, and that’s stabilized. We’ve got stable cash hogs and pork prices right now, which is normal for the first couple weeks of April. At this time, though, futures are always guessing, do we really need these premiums in place for summer contracts based on those fewer hogs which show up in summer? Now, realistically, the market generally falls into the May time frame for futures, then has a sharp spike higher into expiration for those summer contracts. I think that will happen,
certainly from our standpoint. Keep in mind that March hogs and pigs report also trimmed numbers that will be hitting in the summer. So overall, we still have a dead zone waiting for cash hogs and pork to see some procurement into into late spring and strong early summer.
I do think it will happen, but certainly for right now. futures continue to tail off premiums as is often seen at the time of year.”

Corn, Soybeans Higher Wednesday as War and China Concerns Ease: Is Corn Bottoming?

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 16:00:21 GMT

Corn and soybeans are higher early Wednesday with wheat lower. Cattle and hogs started lower then turned mixed.

Soybeans Back Higher on China Hopes
Soybeans are seeing a bounce on Wednesday morning. The market corrected the last two sessions on fear that the Iran war developments would jeopardize the mid-May meeting with China.

Brian Grete with CommStock Investments says, “President Trump was out on Truth Social this morning saying that China was happy with everything, the opening of the Strait of Hormuz, and that they wouldn’t be sending weapons to Iran. And so I think everything’s kind of trending in the direction from a market perspective attitude, at least that maybe a peace deal is on the near term horizon. So we shall see. But as some of those geopolitical issues start to ease a little bit, we get more of a fundamental focus.”

He thinks the NOPA crush report Wednesday morning will be key with the market expecting a record crush figure.

“And so you know, that would be a positive on the demand side. We’ll see how it shakes up compared to the pre-report expectations. But a little bit more of a fundamental focus, I think, moving forward.”

China Premium in the Soybean Market
The soybean market has held together due to the idea China will be making soybean purchases as part of the mid-May meeting says Grete.

“China does carry a lot of weight, obviously, in the soybean market and everybody’s anxious to see if President Trump can negotiate a deal for China to buy more soybeans, whether it be more for 2025-26 or additional promises and pledges for 2026-27. But I think that one of the things that if this meeting happens in mid-May is that we aren’t going to see just soybeans be the center point we will see other feed grains like corn, wheat, sorghum maybe ethanol and biofuels and things like that be part of that deal,” he adds.

How Much of the 8 MMT Does China Buy?
The big question is how much of the 8 MMT of old crop soybean business the President has talked about are part of the deal and what is already priced into the market?

Grete says, “Yeah, I don’t think a lot is built in, to be honest with you. While you can argue that soybean prices are probably over inflated at
current values, I don’t think that’s really tied to that extra 8 million tons. And what’s the possibility out of that? Well, maybe half of that total. I don’t know. I’m just throwing numbers out there, to be honest. No one really knows.”

Soybeans Rangebound
From a chart perspective soybeans are still sideways says Grete.

“They’ve gone nowhere, to be honest with you, for about a month now. So just chop around in a relatively tight range, too. We saw way more volatility ahead of that. And the volatility has decreased and the price range has turned choppy.”

Corn Extends Gains
Corn futures are higher early Wednesday getting some help from soybeans and strong demand according to Grete.

He says record exports and flash sales to unknown and Mexico on Tuesday are supportive.

“And that just continues. We’re seeing no slowdown there. So that is a real story. Ethanol use has been OK. It hasn’t been spectacular. And so there’s some talk that maybe USDA will have to cut the corn for ethanol usage number a little bit. But I’m not real concerned on that front.”

The market is also concerned about lower acreage.

“Were the March Prospective Plantings numbers the highest that we’ll see for the season? In all likelihood, that is the case but we’ll see how
much we drift down from there. That will be a focal point as we move through the remainder of April and then into the May time frame,” he adds.

Corn Acres Falling
So how much are corn acres falling due to the whole fertilizer supply crunch and higher prices since the Iran war?

Grete thinks acres will be a little bit below where USDA was with the March perspective plantings.

“Regionally, I think there is some potential for some big shifts, to be honest with you. In the central Corn Belt, probably not a whole lot of movement.”

The American Farm Bureau Federation came out with its survey, and it said that the pre-booked fertilizer was the highest within the central Corn Belt area.

“So you’re probably not going to see a whole lot of movement there. You get down into the South and there was less than 20% pre-book coverage. And so those crops that are most at risk are peanuts, cotton, some of those that are specific to the South are probably the crops most at risk. We’ll see what happens with corn and soybean acres in those areas. I think that if you’re going to see any kind of big movement from the March intentions for corn and soybeans, it’s probably going to come from the fringe area. So I will include that up into the Plains, the Northern Plains, down through the south and southeast is the areas where we could see the biggest shift.”

Too Early To Trade Planting Delays
He says it is too early to be trading planting delays due to the heavy rains that have fallen in some areas of the Corn Belt.

“It’s mid-April, let’s be honest. If it was a month from now, then the concern would be much greater.”

He says the concern is coming from farmers that got off to such a fast start last year.

“So they feel like they’re behind and they are behind that but from a national perspective we’re right about where we need to be on corn and we’re well ahead on soybeans,” he remarks.

Corn Divorced From Crude Oil
The corn market has also divorced from the crude oil market and geopolitical headlines and is trading its own fundamentals.

“Right now, we’ve removed all the war premium from corn. We’re back to those pre-war levels.”

Corn Bottoming?
Corn had a 30 cent plus correction off the war highs on March 9 but held support on Tuesday so Grete thinks the market is trying to bottom.

“No doubt about that. You know, we saw the spike low last Friday. We’ve had some basing action since that point in time. And I really like the price action. Now, I don’t think that corn is going to go on a big move to the upside. But, you know from a downside risk perspective, I think the last Friday’s low is key near-term support that probably will be defended by bulls.”

Wheat Market Eases
After a big rally on Tuesday the wheat market was slightly lower on Wednesday.

Grete says the market has enough weather premium for the time being and needs some more bullish news to push that market higher.

“The global supply is plentiful at this point in time we’re oversupplied. The real story in wheat is that the SRW crop is doing well, the white winter wheat crop is doing well, the HRW crop is struggling. And are HRW concerns are they enough to pull higher when we have an oversupplied global market and the other two winter wheats are doing relatively well right now,” he explains.

As a result he doesn’t see a lot more upside to prices and technically the market has not taken out the March highs either.

Cattle Just Off Contract Highs
Cattle futures opened lower on Wednesday after new contract highs the prior session and even some all-time highs in live cattle.

Some light profit taking is understandable with the overbought condition of the market but are the fundamentals strong enough to support a sustained rally?

“I don’t know,” he says, “We’re in kind of rarefied air. We make new all-time highs on a near daily basis in live cattle futures. They’re trading at a premium to last week’s average cash. And so we need the cash market to come along. Boy, you get up in here and you got to have a new reason to be a buyer on a daily basis. And so far, we’ve seen that to a semi-limited degree. I don’t think that the traders will build too much premium into futures over the cash, but we do need the cash to keep performing.”

The wholesale beef prices had also seen select trading premium to choice and while that got corrected yesterday it is something to watch.

The market is also going into a Cattle on Feed Report and so there could be some consolidation going into that report even though the expectations are bullish.

“If the numbers aren’t as bullish as what the pre-report expectations are, you could see a little bit of additional profit taking. But really, it comes down to what’s the cash market doing? Because as long as the cash market continues to strengthen, then you’ll see some support in the futures, I believe.”

Hogs Bounce off New Lows
Lean hog futures opened lower for a sixth day and made new lows for the move before bouncing.

Grete says April hogs expire at noon and so the selloff may have been because the futures were too premium to the cash index.

“As May takes over lead month status, we’ve seen premium trimmed to under $4 to the cash index. Sometimes it’s nothing more than the expiration of the current front month contract that leads to a change in buyer interest. And so maybe we do see some buyers come back after that happens. We shall see on that front. But really, the cash index needs to start putting in some stronger gains, I think, to rebuild buyer
interest in the futures.”

Ag Markets Impacted by Money Flow, Crude Oil and Weather on Tuesday

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 23:30:27 GMT

Wheat ended higher Tuesday, with soybeans lower and corn mixed. Cattle made record highs, hogs new lows for the move.

Ag Markets Impacted by Money Flow
Grains and livestock markets were mixed on Tuesday with influence coming from the unwinding of positions in crude oil and the rallying stock market with the U.S. back talking to Iran to work out a deal.

According to Tommy Grisafi of Nesvick Trading money flow the last two sessions in the outside markets had a huge impact on ag markets.

“Looking at where stocks in the S&P were on Sunday night. I came into work early, got off the couch from watching the Masters. I said, these markets are going to rock. Crude oil had a big gap higher open on the Trump administration saying we didn’t get a deal done.”

From there he says fast forward to Tuesday.

“The stock market closed higher yesterday. It had a big run up Friday. It closed up higher yesterday and it exploded higher today. The United States stock market is just a few percent from all-time highs in some of the markets. The Dow Jones is 3% to 4% away from all-time highs and the S&P is just 1% to 1.5% from all time highs.”

Wheat Leads the Rally Adding Weather Premium
Wheat futures rallied on Tuesday and were the price leader in the grain sector adding weather premium but also seeing some short covering by the funds.

“The wheat market, impressive on the charts, starting to really pique people’s interest as wheat closed on the dead high tick in Kansas City.
Impressive market, both from the charts and what’s happening. All eyes on weather when it comes to wheat, Michelle.”

Corn Follows Wheat
Corn tried to follow the wheat higher but was held back by lower soybeans and crude oil.

Grisafi says, “Crude oil at one point traded down $8. If you’re trading corn, you’re saying corn, third of it’s ethanol. Looking over at the crude oil market, looking over at the stock market, stock market exploding higher. And you say, yeah, maybe things are getting better over in Iran. So look at all the markets that ramped up. There’s a massive unwinding of whatever was affected by crude oil going up is now being affected by it going down.”

Funds Liquidate More in Corn?
If the crude oil market continues to cool will it trigger additional fund long liquidation in the corn market?

Grisafi says there is risk of that in both corn and soybeans.

“And especially keep an eye on soybean oil as the funds had gotten really long soybean oil. So keep an eye on soybean oil, soybeans, corn. Watch what those funds do.”

How Low Could Corn Prices Fall?
Funds extended their long position to over 200,000 contracts over the course of five to six weeks but as of last Tuesday had sold over 45,000 contracts week over week.

So, if they continue to liquidate those positions how far could corn prices fall?

Grisafi doesn’t think the market can fall that much farther though because demand has been so strong.

“If corn was to break 20, 25 cents in the new crop, if $4.70 corn turned into $4.50 we would see foreign buying interest.”

Soybeans Fall on Record Brazil Soybean Crop
Soybeans have been down the last two days on fund selling and profit taking but it has been triggered by several factors.

One is Conab’s record Brazilian soybean estimate, says Grisafi, pegged at 179.15 MMT, up 1.3 MMT from last month.

“That didn’t help. You know, a bull market needs to be fed every day. And those numbers were showing that they have a good crop down there. Typically, they’re a big hedger in March. And, you know, their harvest, right? The boats are loading. Talk of quality issues, some rain down there. But nonetheless, they grew a crop, right? And the balance sheet isn’t super tight,” he adds.

Soybean Oil Correcting
Second is the correction in the soybean oil market in tandem with crude oil futures cooling.

He says, “The funds were 110% long in soybean oil as their percent of normal. So, as you see an unwinding of the soybean oil/soybean meal spreads I believe that the meal leg is what’s really kept us up here the last few weeks. If meal was the rollover and crude oil was keep coming down and you watch what’s happening in soybean oil, you’d see the funds take off an incredible amount of length.”

China Meeting Jeopardized
The third is the fear of the mid-May meeting with China being delayed or canceled.

The soybean market has been holding premium due to the hopes for soybean purchases but the recent developments with Iran have put that meeting in jeopardy, especially as China has been providing weapons to Iran and President Trump has threatened tariffs.

Grisafi is hopeful the meeting will happen and he says soybeans have had a decent rally but China may buy other crops.

“So, if you’re putting all your eggs in one basket that Trump and Xi are going to meet and that China’s going to commit to buying a bunch more commodities, I had a chance to talk to Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. And he said, everyone focuses on soybeans but we have other great crops we want to talk to China about including corn and wheat, sugar and other products like rice, pulse crops and edible beans. He mentioned a whole bunch of things.”

He says China could agree to buy other products and that may be why wheat and other commodities are doing better.

Cattle Make Contract Highs
Live and feeder cattle futures exploded into new contract highs on Tuesday.

Grisafi says the combination of record high cash trade and the surge in the stock market has helped propel cattle higher.

“Again, we may also open up China to keep an eye on that. We don’t have cattle coming in from Mexico, so we’ve pretty much written off those cattle that used to come over. We watch the weather and we watch other things and we’re producing a lot of beef. The numbers aren’t there, but the tonnage is, right? And we got through the strike. That strike ended, I believe, a few days ago. Demand is good.”

More Upside in Cattle?
Grisafi says he is concerned that the market can’t hold at these levels forever as the market has been in a six year bull run off the COVID lows.

“If you’re out there and you’re raising cattle, I definitely would suggest setting some floors, buying some LRP. We’re one true social post away from being $20 lower in live cattle and $30, $40 lower in feeders,” he adds.

Grain Market Up Tuesday: Is it Trading Its Own Fundamentals and Are Fertilizer Prices a 2026 Story?

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:59:37 GMT

Grains were higher early Tuesday with cattle making new highs and hogs lower.

Grains Pop Tuesday
Grain markets were seeing strength across the complex early Tuesday.

Jon Scheve with Scheve Grain thinks the markets have transitioned over to trading more of their own fundamentals as the lower crude oil market on talks restarting with Iran isn’t having much of an impact on the action.

In fact he thinks the market has been trading its own fundamentals this entire time.

“When you have oil up nearly 80% from before the war to its highest point in the middle of it, and corn was up less than 10%, I don’t think that corn was remotely following the crude oil. I think those are two separate things. Iran isn’t a producer of corn. It’s going to be a consumer of it.
You have a situation here where the market has kind of just continued to trade its own own issues and not been as worried about the war headlines as maybe one could have thought it might,” he explains.

Wheat Leading on Weather Concerns
He says the hard red winter wheat market is leading the charge on weather and crop concerns.

USDA reported 34% of the winter wheat was in good to excellent condition down 1% and compares to 47% a year ago.

States like Texas are showing only 15% of the crop is rated good to excellent with 54% poor to very poor. In Oklahoma only 10% of the crop is good to excellent, down 2% from last week and Kansas is at 32%, down 6%.

Scheve says that is supporting the market. “Today we’re seeing the hard red wheat, which is going to be that western Texas to Nebraska market. It’s trading significantly higher while the eastern Chicago wheat isn’t moving up as much. And I think that’s a function of just how dry it is out West and concerned that maybe they’re going to miss some rain. And the question becomes, does that wheat crop actually get some rain here in a couple of weeks or not?”

He says if it doesn’t rain wheat could get pulled out of the feed ration which might help the corn a bit.

Corn Following Wheat
However, if the wheat crop continues to deteriorate how much more weather premium does the market need to add and will that market pull up corn?

Scheve says, “Oh, I think it’s going to take a lot more from wheat to get corn to move. There’s just too much corn in the U.S. and we still are running into an issue that the USDA has created in that.”

He’s referring to the 6.2 billion bu. feed and residual estimate USDA is using in the balance sheets.

“They have the feed number on cattle so significantly high that how on earth are we going to meet those numbers? I mean, when animals on feed are down 10% or cattle on feed were down 10% year over year, cutouts, I think, were up slightly, but are not down as much as they were from the year before. How do we increase feed demand when the chickens and the pigs are pretty much steady. None of those numbers make any sense,” he says.

So he thinks eventually that number is going to come down in future reports to show us that we have too much corn left in the country.

“I think that’s just going to keep a lid on corn prices moving forward. Because even if we do see the futures go up, I think you’ll see basis struggle to go up. If anything, it’ll start to drift back if we see a 20 cent rally in futures.”

Highs in the Corn Market?
So the highs in the corn market hit on March 9, will those be the high water mark for a while?

He says, “I would struggle to say that they’re for the high for the year on the December. I think that the chances of that happening, based on the last 35 years of history, say that that’s only a 25% chance that the highs have been put in. It has happened once or twice in March but those are low odds. The odds favor that it’ll happen later on.”

Old crop is more unlikely to hit a new high he says, without some major change in fundamentals.

“I mean we’re two weeks away from the May contract being unimportant so really the last contract to worry about is July. July gets all the way into June. I think that you could potentially still take out those highs but it’s going to depend upon probably the world events it’s probably going to depend upon weather. You know, it’s hard to say that those highs aren’t in, but it’s probably the flip of a coin.”

Corn to See Open Planting Window
U.S. corn planting progress is at 5%, compared to 4% on average.

While the forecast shows rain chances are higher in the Central and Eastern Midwest it is too early to be concerned about any planting delays.

“If you have 70% of the crop in by May 15th that gives you an incredibly high chance of trend line or higher yields. And so we have some time to get that in. The average farmer can get the corn planted in about seven days and so many farmers anymore now are starting to move towards
having even two planters so that they can plant beans and corn at the same time. So it isn’t a big concern to me yet. I think there will be an open window and I think you’ll see corn get in the ground pretty quickly.”

Fertilizer a Late 2026 Story
Some in the trade have made the case that higher fertilizer prices and the inability to get the last of the fertilizer supplies in place could mean lower corn acres yet this spring.

However, Scheve thinks the fertilizer issue is more of a story for late in 2026 into 2027, yet he thinks corn acres will still fall this spring to 93 million just on the economics.

“There was too much fertilizer not purchased in Ohio and specifically in the Southern states and I think that you’re going to see farmers looking at $4.75 December corn, which is not profitable even with low price fertilizer before the war. It certainly isn’t profitable now. The average farmer in the country needs a $5.25 futures level. Doesn’t matter if you’re in North Dakota or if you’re in Ohio or Mississippi, you need that $5.25 level to break even and then subtract or add your basis onto those values to get that. I just don’t see why someone’s going to plant corn when they can look at $11.50 beans and say, you know what? I don’t lose any money planting beans at those values. I don’t make much, but I don’t want to
put corn in the ground with a chance at a 50 cent a bushel loss,” he explains.

He says if the U.S. hits trend line yields on corn than carryout will not shrink, especially as the feed estimates are too high.

Soybeans Hold Awaiting China Meeting
Soybeans corrected Monday on concerns about the developments with the Iran war jeopardizing the mid-May meeting in China.

Scheve says right now China hopes are the main reason the market has been so sideways.

“If there’s a chance that that meeting is gonna be canceled and there’s any talk that Trump doesn’t wanna fly over, I think that you’re gonna see the beans down 10 to 20 cents that day. As long as they aren’t talking about it and not talking about canceling that meeting I think the beans should stay relatively range bound between that $11.60 and $11.80 value on the nearby and that’ll probably keep a new crop right around that $11.50 level as well.”

Soybean Meal Supports
The soybean meal market is also higher on Tuesday which is supporting the rally in soybeans on meal/oil spread unwinding.

Scheve thinks that relationship between the products will hold until the mid-May meeting as well.

Break Evens Tight Around the World
Scheve says he is concerned that U.S. farmers can’t sustainably grow crops below the cost of we can’t sustain growing crops below the cost of production year after year.

“I mean one or two maybe but we just can’t do this three years in a row and it isn’t just the U.S. farmer who is having a problem it’s the rest of the world who’s having a problem as well and this fertilizer problem is going to create a real headache for the South American farmer because
their fertilizer prices are going to skyrocket. And so that should help us in the very long term. I’m not certain that it’ll help us in the old crop, but I like its chances for helping us with this new crop that we’re going to raise.”

Global Diesel and Fertilizer Shortages
He is also watching the impact of diesel fuel shortages around the world, including Australia and how it could hurt their ability to plant or harvest the wheat crop.

“That could be beneficial to wheat. I think there’s a lot of unanswered questions, and I think that the market is going to be focused on this for the time being. And even if the war does end tomorrow, next week, or even next month, that there’s so much damage in the Persian Gulf area that it’s going to take years to rebuild. I don’t think that this is a quick fix, even if the war is over. I don’t think that solves our fertilizer issue for quite some time.”

Australia also gets nearly 60% of its fertilizer supplies through the Strait of Hormuz, so that is also an issue that will impact acreage.

Scheve says in Vietnam rice is not getting moved because there is not diesel to move barges up and down the rivers.

“And this becomes a question of what’s going to happen around the world as people don’t get food. I mean, most people aren’t going to eat our corn, but it is going to be processed into a protein of some sort or our soybeans go into a protein of some sort. But rice and wheat that starts to create some issues I think that that could be beneficial to our Southern farmers here in the U.S. because they can at least cover both of those crops and that might help feed the rest of the world if this fertilizer and fuel thing becomes a long-term problem,” he adds.

Trump Warns Fertilizer Giants Against "Price Gouging" as Costs Soar 40%

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 15:46:51 GMT

Fertilizer market volatility is once again taking center stage as geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply lines and push input costs sharply higher. New analysis shows the increase in fertilizer prices may not be over, even if the Strait of Hormuz reopens soon.

Even with the situation in Iran pushing prices even higher, the sharp increase in fertilizer prices from 2020 to now is catching attention in Washington. Not only did President Donald Trump take to social media to warn of ‘price gouging,’ but Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins also posted on X Monday, specifically expressing frustration over Mosaic’s response to farmers.

While Rollins and USDA Under Secretary Stephen Vaden have raised concerns over fertilizer prices this year, the president posted on Truth Social over the weekend that he is closely monitoring fertilizer prices and pledged support for American farmers.

Trump said Saturday on his Truth Social platform he is “watching fertilizer prices CLOSELY” during what he described as the US “FIGHT FOR FREEDOM in Iran”, adding that the administration “will not accept PRICE GOUGING from the fertilizer monopoly”.

On Monday, Rollins posted on X, saying she was “So disappointed in this response” from Mosaic, “especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market.”

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

Mosaic announced last week the decision to shut down major phosphate operations in Brazil, a move the that will cut production, reduce jobs, and signal a *strategic shift in how the fertilizer giant deploys its capital.

Mosaic Company announced Thursday it will idle two phosphate facilities in Brazil as part of a broader effort to cut costs and shift capital. Mosaic expects idling of the facilities to reduce annual phosphate production by approximately 1 million tonnes. CEO Bruce Bodine says the decision reflects what he calls a disciplined focus on long-term returns.

.@MosaicCompany, you’re right that U.S. farmers are facing a difficult economic situation, only made worse by the extra $6.9 BILLION they have had to spend on fertilizer since you petitioned the government to place duties on imported phosphorus. This has played a major role in… https://t.co/UuOqjE0jBu
— National Corn (NCGA) (@NationalCorn) April 13, 2026

Mosaic and Simplot have also been in the cross hairs of the push to remove countervailing duties on Moroccan phosphate . Groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) claim the CVDs are costing U.S. agriculture $1 billion each year.

The CVDs on Moroccan phosphate were put into place by the International Trade Commission (ITC) in 2021. As the sunset review begins, more than 50 state grower groups including the Texas Corn Producers Association, sent a letter to the U.S. Department of Commerce and the ITC to revoke the countervailing duties on imported phosphate fertilizers from Morocco and Russia.

In separate filings by Mosaic and Simplot to the ITC and the Department of Commerce, both companies said the continuation is necessary to maintain a “level playing field.”

In a written response to Farm Journal, Mosaic said:

“American farmers depend on a strong domestic fertilizer industry, which in turn depends on strong enforcement of U.S. trade laws that ensure a level playing field. Mosaic is proud to support U.S. agriculture with high-quality, reliable products produced here at home.”

Iran War’s Current Impact on Fertilizer Prices

The message from the Trump adminstration comes as tensions escalate in the Strait of Hormuz, where the United States is weighing a potential full naval blockade. Ship traffic through the critical waterway has already dropped from roughly 135 vessels per day to the single digits. A complete shutdown could halt flows entirely, further increasing fertilizer prices.

The stakes are high as roughly one-third of global fertilizer shipments move through the strait, and the disruption is already sending prices higher, up more than 40% compared to a year ago.

It is the 6-week anniversary of the closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Fert price comparisons:

NOLA urea - +$230 or 49%
NOLA UAN - +$145 or 38%
Midwest NH3 - +$245 or 32%
NOLA DAP - +$130 or 21%
NOLA potash - +$10 or 3%

...corn - 2-cents or 0.5% higher#sickeningforfarmers
— Josh Linville (@JLinvilleFert) April 10, 2026

Market data shows the impact Iran is having on already high fertilizer prices. According to StoneX analyst Josh Linville says in the six weeks since the war started:

Urea prices have surged by $230 per ton, a 49% increase
UAN is up $145 per ton, or 38%
Anhydrous ammonia has climbed $245 per ton, a 32% jump.
In contrast, corn prices have barely responded, rising just two cents, or about half a percent. The divergence is putting additional pressure on farm margins.

DOJ Probe Into Fertilizer Costs Seeks Input From Farmers

The Trump administration is asking farmers to help provide information as part of an ongoing U.S. Department of Justice investigation into elevated costs for fertilizer, machinery and other key agricultural inputs, according to reporting from Bloomberg.

Bloomberg reported the effort is aimed at gathering more on-the-ground data as regulators examine whether fertilizer producers may have coordinated to raise prices. The DOJ investigation was first reported in early March, when Bloomberg said federal officials had begun looking into whether fertilizer companies engaged in price coordination.

According to the Bloomberg report, Vaden said he has already met with officials at both the Department of Justice and the Federal Trade Commission to discuss potential lines of inquiry. He also noted that farmers could play a key role in the process.

Vaden said farmers “have a lot of information that might be relevant to these investigations.”

Bloomberg previously reported in early March that the Department of Justice is investigating whether fertilizer producers colluded to increase prices.

Speaking at the North American Agricultural Journalists’ annual conference in Washington on Monday, Vaden encouraged farmer participation in the probe, emphasizing confidentiality protections.

“We need farmers to help provide us with that information on a confidential basis, so that that can help inform the investigations that are ongoing,” Vaden said, according to Bloomberg. “I think we will have a mechanism in order to help encourage that exchange of information.”

NCGA Surveys Show Not All Farmers Have Fertilizer Secured for 2026

Against that backdrop, along with fertilizer prices climbing even higher in the six weeks after the conflict started with Iran, new surveys results from NCGA highlight how those market pressures are translating to on-farm realities.

Krista Swanson, chief economist for NCGA, says the organization conducted the survey to better understand fertilizer availability from the farmer perspective. Ag Secretary Rollins has told mainstream media that 80% of farmers have fertilizer locked in for 2026, but NCGA data contradicts that figure.

“We’re hearing that number being thrown around too, which is why we really wanted to find out directly from farmers what the status is for them,” Swanson says.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

A Significant Gap in Fertilizer Readiness

The surveys show that only 60% of farmers report having their nitrogen fully purchased or secured for the 2026 growing season, while 64% say the same for phosphate. That leaves a sizable portion of producers still working to lock in supplies.

“When you think about over 500,000 corn farmers in the U.S., this isn’t a small number,” Swanson says. “Our survey results indicate that over 200,000 farmers still need at least some fertilizer for this year.”

Nitrogen remains a critical input for corn production and is closely tied to yield potential. Any shortfall, whether driven by availability or cost, can directly affect productivity and profitability.

NCGA Grower Surveys

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

Younger Farmers Feeling the Pressure Most

The survey also points to uneven impacts across the farm sector, with younger farmers facing greater challenges in securing fertilizer.

Swanson says younger producers reported having more nitrogen left to purchase compared to older farmers.

“You think about younger farmers that have less capital already built up in their business, maybe tighter cash flow needs because of their equity position,” she says. “This does seem to have a disproportional impact on younger farmers.”

That dynamic raises concerns about financial strain among newer operations in a high-cost environment.

Corn Acres Likely Stable, But With Reduced Inputs

Despite the challenges, most farmers are not planning to reduce corn acreage. The survey found that 80% of respondents expect to maintain their planned acres.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

At the same time, fertilizer application rates may fall short. Half of the farmers surveyed say they do not expect to apply their full amount of fertilizer.

“Pairing these two together, it seems to me like we are still going to see a lot of corn acres get planted,” Swanson says. “But those corn acres will have less fertilizer than maybe what they would have otherwise had.”

That combination could limit yield potential if input reductions become widespread.

Growing Concern Shifts to 2027

While fertilizer availability remains a concern for 2026, attention is already turning to the next crop year. Fertilizer purchasing follows a rolling cycle, and planning for 2027 will begin soon.

Survey responses show that for every one farmer more concerned about fertilizer price and availability for 2026, nearly two are more concerned about 2027.

NCGA Grower Survey

(National Corn Growers Association (NCGA))

“So farmers are concerned as we look ahead to next year,” Swanson says.

The shift reflects uncertainty about how long supply disruptions and elevated prices will persist.

Supply Chain Recovery May Take Time

Even if geopolitical tensions ease, relief may not come quickly. Swanson notes that the fertilizer market is still dealing with production disruptions and supply chain backlogs.

“A short-term ceasefire has limited immediate impact on this ongoing fertilizer crisis for farmers,” she says. “Even when a permanent end to the situation is reached, we’re still looking at recovery from supply chain backlogs and halted production that could take a long time to recover from.”

Damage to key inputs such as liquid natural gas and sulfur production could take years to repair, keeping pressure on supply.

A Tightening Outlook

The NCGA survey underscores a challenging environment for corn producers. Most acres are expected to be planted this year, but not all will receive optimal fertilizer applications. At the same time, concern is building for 2027 as farmers look ahead to the next purchasing cycle.

For many producers, the issue is no longer just securing fertilizer for this season. It is navigating a period of sustained uncertainty that could shape production decisions, costs, and risk management strategies across the U.S. corn sector.

Longstanding Concerns Over Market Concentration

In September 2025, USDA and the U.S. Department of Justice signed a Memorandum of Understanding, committing both agencies to jointly examine high and volatile input costs, which included fertilizer, by scrutinizing competitive conditions in agricultural markets and enforcing antitrust laws, particularly around price setting and market concentration.

While geopolitical tensions are the latest driver of volatility, many farm groups argue the root of the problem runs deeper. Matt Perdue, president of the North Dakota Farmers Union, says ongoing federal investigations into fertilizer pricing must lead to meaningful action.

“We appreciate the administration’s investigations into input costs,” Perdue says. “But investigations don’t do anything if they’re not followed by enforcement, and they don’t do anything if we don’t learn what came out of those investigations.”

Groups like the Texas Corn Producers Association have been raising concerns about fertilizer market concentration for years. Texas farmer Dee Vaughan says the organization began studying the issue in 2020, working with the Agricultural and Food Policy Center at Texas A&M to examine pricing trends.

“We’ve been very concerned about all of our input costs, but specifically fertilizer, because it’s the one that just keeps going up almost exponentially,” Vaughan says.

He adds those studies found a shift in how fertilizer prices are determined . Historically tied closely to natural gas costs, the study found nitrogen fertilizer pricing began tracking corn prices more closely after 2010, a change Vaughan says reflects deeper structural issues.

According to Vaughan, the small number of firms controlling the market have the data and market awareness to price inputs based on farmers’ revenue potential, rather than production costs.

“They all have economists on staff,” Vaughan says. “They know exactly what our costs are, what our income is, and they’re able to extract value based on what they see as the gross income of a farmer. It’s not based on cost of production any longer.”

Grains Refocus on War and Weather: Have Corn and Soybeans Put in Highs?

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 01:53:11 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mixed on Monday.

Markets Refocus on War or Shake it Off?
Grain and energy markets gapped higher Sunday night with equity markets sharply lower as the peace talks with Iran broke down and President Trump threatened to block traffic at the Strait of Hormuz.

Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says however, the grains and energy sector peaked out quickly and the stock market pulled off of its lows to trade higher by mid session acting like it wasn’t that concerned about the war.

“So the outside markets probably shaking off the ongoings in the Middle East here for the short term.”

He says there is still uncertainty from day to day but overall the market has absorbed much of the bearish news.

“But if you look at it in the bigger scope of things and look out into the future, it would probably still tell you that, no, it’s not of a major concern just yet. If by chance you keep the energy complex sharply higher and it leads on into late May, early June, then I would say you’re probably going to start having some bigger questions to answer.”

Wheat Adds Weather Premium
The wheat market was the only one to hold on to gains into the close as Schultz says that market was adding weather premium with concerns about drought expansion in the Southern Plains.

“I would say if you look at the forecast of what it was Thursday, Friday, going into this over the weekend and into this week, it was a very wet forecast. It looks like you were going to get more of the western half of the wheat belt and get some rain. You did get some, but I would say. By and large, the rainfall was more of a disappointment than it was of a surprise. On top of that, the temperature is going to flip back to much warmer. Warm and windy is what’s starting to happen, and it has been the case here for quite some time,” he explains.

He says West of 35W stretching Minneapolis to Dallas, Texas it is dry and the further West you head the drier it gets and that doesn’t bode well for HRW wheat.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat also saw some short covering as at least the soft red winter wheat futures saw funds push back short in the market.

Schultz says, “They went short and you had the wheat market, down some 50 some cents in the last 10 days. So a pretty big sell off. So you’re down at some pretty critical support levels and at least held there for a little bit.”

However, if it stays dry into the first part of May it will have a bigger impact on the market.

Corn Caught Between Higher Wheat and Lower Soybeans
Corn started higher with wheat and crude oil and then gave up into the close anchored by the lower soybean market.

Schultz thinks the corn market is starting to see pressure from the weather turning more favorable for planting and planting are starting to roll.

“You have a few pockets that will be wet but dry conditions are short term more bearish to the crop on price than it is bullish. That means your prevent planted acreage is going to be down substantially. It’s pretty, pretty low compared to normal. So I think that’s, that’s an issue. And besides that, even if it’s too dry, you could just replant the crop. That’s why the market really doesn’t get excited until you get into the month of May, whether it’s dry conditions or excessively wet conditions.”

Corn Topped on March 9
The corn market hit fresh highs on March 9 following crude oil but since then has corrected over 30 cents and looks like it is divorcing from the energy market and war headlines.

Funds have also been exiting their long position and as of the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders report sold off another 45,000 longs as of last Tuesday. Will that trend continue?

Schultz says, “I think they still have plenty of length in here, even though they’ve come down some. They’re still pretty long. For this price and the rally that we’ve seen, that’s a pretty substantial move up and it’s a pretty substantial large position that they’re holding on the long side of the market.”

Plus he says there is still plenty of old crop corn around so there is no concern about running out.

“I think the farmer goes to the field. You’re going to see movement of corn slow down. You might see a better basis improvement than you do anything else for the short term. But for a 2.1 billion bushel corn carryout, corn prices are still, in my view, still a little bit more on the high side than they are on the low side,” he adds.

He thinks there may be another 10 to 15 cents of downside risk in the market but technically he is looking for a short term low soon.

Soybeans Lower Despite Higher Meal
The soybean market was lower on Monday despite strength in the meal market.

Schultz says the market is concerned about the possibility of the China talks being delayed or canceled if the Iran war doesn’t come to an end soon and with China providing weapons for Iran.

Plus he says, “The concern on the beans will be that if we do indeed put a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz, the Chinese get a lot of their oil coming out from Iran. If you slow that down, you’d run that risk that bean business to China may slow down here for the short term. So that is of concern.”

Soybean have been trading sideways for nearly 20 days with May beans between $11.45 and $11.80.

However, Monday was an outside day down. “That’s a little bit of a negative tone to the market.” he adds.

Funds Still Long Soybeans
Funds have exited some of the their record length in the soybean complex but they are still very long.

Do they defend that position until the market finds out if the U.S. is going to get more soybean buys from China in mid-May?

“Well, let’s see how it reacts. If it starts going below $11.45 on the May beans, I think I’d have a red flag would go on up. At the same time, $11.80 on the top side, you want to see it start closing above that level.”

If $11.45 is breached and selling accelerates to the downside he sees soybeans going down below $10.80

Cattle Correct
Live cattle futures ended mixed with nearby contracts seeing a correction off of record highs scored on Friday in the face of record cash.

So, is this routine consolidation or a healthy correction?

Schultz says, “The boxed beef has been headed lower, your kill on a weekly basis for cattle is anywhere between 30 to 60, 70,000 head less than the same week on a weekly basis than a year ago. Those are some big numbers to make up. So the cattle numbers going to market are very, very tight, hard to find, keeps the cash market up,” he explains.

He is also concerned the packer margins have gone back from being in the black to now probably somewhere around $170 to $190 per head in the red.

However, he acknowledges the strong domestic beef demand especially moving into the grilling season.

“So henceforth, when you come back and you look at the oil price going down, equity markets going up, probably keeps the consumer still doing quite well with beef demand. So probably a healthy correction here, maybe. It needs a correction. Wouldn’t surprise me, but you’re going to go off of what the cash market and the cash market is still staying relatively strong.”

Lean Hogs Disappoint Again
Lean hog futures were also lower after lower weekly closes in the deferred contracts and the June contract made a new low for the move.

The overall market continues to disappoint, especially relative to the heavy disease pressure being documented in the country.

However, Schultz says the upfront supplies are still overwhelming the demand and the disease pressure may not be fully realized yet.

“Well, we hear about the disease, but you look at the numbers on the weekly slaughter, and that would not coincide with the disease problem that we were hearing about. Now, granted, we’re still to the middle of April. You go back to the hog and pig report, it would suggest that
hog numbers were still going to be about 2% above a year ago until we get maybe to the middle of April, end of April, and then we should start to work it back down to equal with a year ago. I think that absolutely needs to happen. If it doesn’t, then I think the market’s got some bigger problems in front of us. I thought our demand would get a little bit better. And I still think if you look at the big picture, beef being as high as it is, one would think you would get better demand for the pork on the domestic side. That has to happen as well.”

He says exports are okay but with low global pork prices that may be hurting the market.

“China is seeing 16 year lows on pork prices. Compared to the U.S., we’re relatively high compared to the rest of the world.”

Soybeans Surge with Meal, Corn Falls: Cattle Make New Highs

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 20:35:10 GMT

Soybeans, meal and cattle ended higher Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Soybeans Follow Surge in Meal
Soybeans were higher on Friday following a surge in the soybean meal market with end of week unwinding of short meal/long oil spreads.

Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says bean oil has been the leader trying to follow crude oil higher but now that trade is reversing.

“I think we kind of stalled out on the oil the end of the week, and the soybean meal found some strength and I think part of it is the
unknowns,” he says.

The tug of war between the product values has soybeans trading range bound he adds.

China Hopes
The soybean market was also higher for the week and seems to be holding a premium on ideas of China sales in the meeting in mid-May between President Trump and President Xi.

The Wall Street Journal reported that China is expected to make some big soybean purchase announcements at that summit, but Roose thinks they will be new crop, not old crop buys.

“China’s pretty well bloated with soybeans already. They’ve been an aggressive buyer of soybeans from from Brazil. And, you know, it’s getting into the time frame where Brazil soybeans are pretty well getting dialed into the market. The U.S. soybeans, you know, if we pick up some new business, it’s probably going to be for next year. Or they’re going to buy soybeans for this year and then remember, they can always cancel them. So it may be one of those flashes. Either way, I doubt if the meeting is going to have anything that you can really say is overly positive,” he adds.

Corn Falls on Big Supplies, Removing Risk Premium
The corn market was lower Friday and for the week as Roose says the market has quit trading with crude oil and energy values and started to focus in its own fundamentals.

“You know, weather looked like it’s starting to improve a little bit for planting progress. Some of the dry areas are getting some moisture.”

He says the WASDE also confirmed a 2.127 billion bu. carryout.

“That really told us that we have adequate excess supplies, you know, and the world ending stocks going up. So I think that was a bit of a negative. Then you see some of these reports out of the Argentina exchange that a real big discrepancy on how big the corn crop is. So I think it’s just the weight of the supplies.”

The quarterly stocks also confirmed producers are holding over 5 billion bushels of corn, 60% of the ending stocks.

“And we know. that those are an anchor on rallies that producer was selling pretty aggressively. So I think the pipeline just got resupplied going into spring,” he adds.

Corn Hits Chart Resistance, Funds Liquidate
Technically the corn market also ran into signficant chart resistance and with funds long he thinks they are starting to liquidate.

“I think they’ve seen enough with the weather and how the trade is reacting to the crude oil. You’re oversold. To get some kind of retracement here, Michelle, would not be a big surprise. If you don’t catch a weather issue here sooner rather than later, my guess is retracements are going to end up with the funds getting out of their long,” he explains.

Roose adds if weather problems don’t surface by the middle of May to the middle of June, he thinks the funds will go to a short position. “Maybe a pretty big short position just like they did last year.”

Wheat Removes Risk Premium
Wheat futures also were lower Friday and for the week on technical selling but also removing risk premium tied to war, weather and big supplies.

“There’s competition around the world. Some place is harvesting wheat all the time. I think we’re looking at the dry area getting smaller in the U.S. I think there’s no real weather problems around the world. And I think we have a lot of these other countries with wheat that’s cheaper than us,” he says.

The Eastern part of the hard red winter wheat belt saw improved moisture this week as well.

Cattle Make New Highs
Cattle futures saw more new highs for the move on Friday in the feeders and new contract highs in some of the live cattle contracts.

Roose says it came on the heels of higher cash trade with some $250 live sale prices paid in the North.

How much more upside is left in the market especially getting into the best demand time of the year?

He says, " Well, I think if you look at the cash cattle market, I think you have to say we’re getting that seasonal push to the upside. You know, grilling season kicks in right during this time frame. We usually put some premiums in. The packer chases the boxed beef higher.”

However, he says boxed beef is struggling around $380 on the Choice. “So I think what you have to be careful of is if we’re fully dialed in on the fundamentals on the bull side of the market. Funds are sitting long, and you have to be careful if anything goes wrong.”

Weights are also record large according to Roose.

“We’re putting on about enough tons to equal about 20,000 head of cattle a week. Plus, when does the consumer demand slow down? It has been quite remarkable that he’s been holding in on buying beef, but he’s been buying beef at the expense of the packer, which is partly why the demand’s still strong.”

Feeders Holding Back on Border Fears
Feeder cattle futures have not taken out the all-time highs like live cattle. So it that fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle?

Roose says that may be one of the things holding the market back.

“If we don’t open the border sooner rather than later, eventually Mexico builds more packing plants. So I think we have to be careful we don’t send a signal, the wrong signal too long. So my guess is that we’re going to try and work gradually to slow walk the opening, but we’re going to get it done. And that’s going to add some pressure to the feeder cattle. That may be one of the reasons that even though corn market fell sharply, feeder cattle couldn’t make new highs while the fat cattle are making new highs. So I think it’s a concern,” he explains.

However, many called the top last October and the market is back trading at those levels again.

Lean Hogs Lower
Lean hog futures were lower again Friday and for the week. Roose says the futures got too premium to the cash index.

“Yeah, I think that’s the big thing, Michelle. I think the cash market down around $90, the futures market substantially higher than that. Usually we get a seasonal dip right here after Easter before we start to get a little bit of seasonal support middle of May. Then we have that run into the summer months. So I think it’s more just the futures just got too high,” he says.

Plus, globally China is struggling with big hog numbers and low prices at around $60 a hundred weight, and they’re still liquidating the herd.

So even though exports have been very strong, that may be fully dialed in.

Cattle Test Contract Highs on Strong Cash, Fade Border Talk: How High Will Prices Go?

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:21:17 GMT

Cattle and soybeans are higher early Friday with corn, wheat and hogs lower.

Cattle Test Contract Highs
Cattle futures were strong out of the gate Friday with many of the live cattle futures once again making contract highs and other contracts are testing those chart areas.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle market has been impressive and resilient.

“Cattle have been very strong. They’ve been overbought for a significant amount of time. And yeah, bumping on some of these contract highs. Some months are breaking through. And when some of the front months were making contract highs, the deferreds were kind of left in the dust, and now here in the last few days, more confidence in the back just continues to push higher. The resilience of this market is just very impressive.”

He says the market has shook off plenty of negative news including the Iran war, possible Mexican border reopening, closure of the Lexington, Neb. plant and the JBS plant strike at Greeley, CO.

When Will the Cattle High Hit?
Varilek says the market is getting hard to protect as many producers and market participants are waiting to see if the market is topping.

“I think there’s a lot of open inventory out there, guys that don’t have cattle hedged. And we’re just waiting. So whenever there is that official rollover, don’t know when it is. Everybody would love to know. And everybody says, call me if you think that is going to happen. That list is a thousand people long. So I don’t know that I’m going to get everybody called when that hits,” he says.

Higher Fed Cash Push
The futures have been pushed by the cash market which was up $9.26 last week on the 5-area weighted average.

“The way that it rallied was very impressive. It wasn’t just a few regionals out in front. We’ve got a couple of majors out there leading this cash market and for a couple of weeks in a row here now, coming in and grabbing entire show lists and the right kind of strength behind cash markets. So that helps a lot,” And he explains it provides the avenue to clean up the show lists and pull down the weights.

Producers have regained leverage but will it continue to push cash higher this week?

“Going into this week I think the thoughts were we’re gonna ask $252 but if the bids start coming out at $250 give me a call and there might be a little bit of interest there so I think anything $250 or higher, we’re feeling good. And it’s going to have to take that. I don’t feel like we’re going to move cattle less than that, especially with the strength that we’ve seen on the board here.”

Feeders Regain Leadership?
The feeder cattle cash index is back going higher and so will cash strength help pull the futures into new highs?

Varilek says, “These feeders have been the leaders for the last couple of years during this rally. And I think recently there was a small window here where a few of the cattle buyers were telling me, hey, I think there’s some soft. trade happening here and it’s easing up just a little
bit maybe not as strong that’s about all you had to say it must have encouraged the rest of the buyers to show up and we’re you know back off to the races got another you know projecting the index up another $2.40 here today and giving us that confidence.”

Plus, as planting ramps up there will be fewer cattle and buyers at the sale barns.

Mexican Border Reopening Soon?
The other headwind is continued talk the Mexican border might slowly start to open to cattle imports in a few weeks.

However, so far it hasn’t spooked the cattle market.

“Well, I think there was probably a few guys sitting on their hands waiting for more details there and now here we sit with kind of the same information, not a lot. So they might have to reenter and jump back in and get some inventory. I like what I’m seeing. To get to contract highs,
it’s not out of reach here,” he adds.

When the border does reopen it will be staggered and start in the far west ports but Varilek anticipates an announcement soon.

“You know, maybe it’s a staggered open here in a couple of weeks. And it’s like, OK, I just haven’t heard anything new yet on that story. I think that it is and I think that they probably will. I think we have a lot of measures in place to help prevent this. It is screwworm. It’s not hoof and mouth disease. It’s a little bit of a different cookie here, something that we should be able to try to manage. I don’t think it’s as big of a disaster as what some of the news is,” he states.

Plus, he says Mexico has learned how to deal with those cattle and are running those plants 24-7.

“They don’t have the regulations that we do here. They can ship us a lot of beef, just import us the beef, and they’ve got a self -sustaining industry down there. We can ship them corn. We’ve got a lot of cheap corn here. So that’s what I see.”

Hogs Correcting
Lean hogs saw a pop at the beginning of the week on news of FMD in China but have corrected since than and the action has been disappointing according to Varilek.

“One of our lead hog analysts here said, yeah, hogs suck. You know that that’s how what our attitude really is. We feel like we’ve got news that could rally these these hogs we we’ve got new PRRS outbreaks happening. I mean the disease is still there and so when we’re in the heart of
production we hear those stories,” he says.

Still hogs have not been able to turn around but he thinks its just a matter of time.

“I think that these hogs in these summer months can really take off here yet. So still holding out hope.”

Corn Removes War Premium
Corn futures are lower again on Friday on follow through selling and are working on a lower weekly close.

The market is taking out war and inflation premium according to Varilek.

“The energy rally that caught a lot of attention across agriculture markets and grains really benefited from it. You know, got to some levels, gave us some opportunities. Hey, to say, hey, I actually can look at some prices that might work here. That was fun. Now that we’re in the mood of, OK, we’re having ceasefire talks, we’re going to meet with Iran in Pakistan, Israel just kind of maybe coming to the table as of this morning.
We’ll see. But I think that’s starting to pull some of that premium out.”

Plus, he says the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks in the WASDE was a reminder of the large corn inventory in the U.S. with basis weaker than normal.

Soybeans Rally with Meal and China Hopes
Soybeans were higher again on Friday morning and have been strong all week getting some help from higher soybean meal as spreads are unwound with bean oil.

The other supportive feature is China and hopes for large purchases announcements in mid-May at the trade meeting between President’s Trump and Xi.

Markets React Violently Wednesday to Possible Iran Ceasefire and Opening of the Strait of Hormuz

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 03:16:58 GMT

A possible 14-day ceasefire announced between the U.S. and Iran and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz created volatile moves in many markets Tuesday night and Wednesday.

Most markets saw the unwinding of positions.

Nymex WTI crude oil futures plunged $20 during the session, ending 16% lower at $94.41 per barrel while corn, wheat and soybean oil followed. Outside markets like the Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 1,325 points, with the U.S. Dollar Index dropped 0.8%.

Ag Markets Unwind With Crude Oil
The plunge in crude oil spilled over to pull down corn, wheat and bean oil futures.

Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says those markets were extracting risk or war premium.

He says depending on the outcome those markets could fall even further. “The crude oil market is still about $20 to $30 above where it was when the war started. So we still have quite a bit of premium we can give back out of this market or pull back out of this market.”

That could further drag down corn due to the biofuels tie and wheat on ideas of lost exports.

Markets Pause Awaiting Proof of Ceasefire
However, for now Martinson thinks the markets have removed enough premium and may take a pause.

“I think they’re going to wait to see. I think they’ve taken a lot of what they will out of it. Now we’ll see if the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks and if we can get a peace deal done. We need to start seeing, you know, ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. That’s going to be another, you know, criteria.”

Soybean oil also plummeted with crude oil and heating oil or diesel fuel.

Soybeans Trade Higher on China Hopes
However, soybeans recovered on hopes of a better outcome to the China summit in mid-May.

According to Martinson, “You know, one, that it’s going to take the pressure off Trump to be able to have his meeting with Xi at the beginning or in May, like they’ve got scheduled. And it’s likely that means that China is looking to make some announcement of purchasing more U.S. soybeans.

Fertilizer Prices Ease
Fertilizer prices also cooled slightly on the news according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer with StoneX.

“The limited amount of trade that we have seen, NOLA, Urea, physical barges have been down anywhere from 7% to 10% from the highs.”

Still, Linville says the possible cease fire casts uncertainty on a market that was trying to normalize.

Fertilizer Shipments Slow to Resume Even if the Strait is Reopened
So, will fertilizer prices cool further if the Strait of Hormuz is reopened?

Linville says, “Even if you see the rest of the world starting to fall I think spring numbers are going to be very very frustrating for farmers I think the prices are going to stick a little bit more than what they had hoped to see.”

That’s because fertilizer may be one of the lower priority products for shipping and due to the sheer logistics of getting product in place.

“You’re talking in a lot of cases these products that are going to ship now if assuming the Strait is open they’re not going to arrive until first half mid-may and for a lot of places that’s too late for spring,” he adds.

Ag and Energy Markets Unwind on Possible Iran Ceasefire: Will it Stick?

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 20:45:33 GMT

Ag markets were mixed Wednesday. Corn, wheat, bean oil and hogs were lower with higher action in soybeans, meal and cattle.

Markets Unwind on Possible Iran Ceasefire
Ag and outside markets were all in unwind mode with a possible two week Iran ceasefire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Ted Seifried with Zaner Ag Hedge says markets were removing war premium and the biggest correction came in the energy sector with crude oil down over $20 at one point and falling below the $100 mark.

The biggest moves came in the overnight session with the day trade seeing more uncertainty about the terms of the deal.

“Where do we go from here and does this ceasefire stick? There were a lot of conflicting things being said by by both countries. Right now there seems to be a bit of a disconnect between what the agreement is actually. Iran believes that the U.S. is fully committing or agreeing to
their 10-point plan, while the U.S. seems to think Iran is fully agreeing to our 15-point plan. And the two are very, very different, Michelle. In the meantime, there were still some attacks in the Middle East happening in Israel and surrounding countries.”

Opening the Strait of Hormuz the Key
The real key for all the markets going forward is does the Strait of Hormuz open to shipments.

Seifried says, “Yes, that’s all very, very much the case. And you hear different things about that, right? You have the U.S. saying that, well, we’ll be there to help ensure that traffic flows smoothly. Read between the lines, that sounds like we want to have a military presence there in case Iran is not allowing ships to go through or attacking ships that we’re going to attack back, meaning we’re not really backing down. While at the same time, Iran’s saying, okay, some ships can flow through Iran, but there’s going to be this $2 million toll that’s going to need to be paid, that’s going to be used to rebuild Iran. And it doesn’t sound like there’s an agreement on both sides on part of that. So this, it seems
like a very, very tenuous.”

If the Strait Opens Do Markets Further Correct?
So if the Strait of Hormuz is opened and trade is normalized do the markets continue to take out war premium, especially crude oil and will that pull down corn and bean oil?

Seifried says there is still more war premium that could be taken out in energy markets but he is more unsure about the ag markets.

“Recently we’ve seen corn and soybeans kind of disassociate themselves from the energy or alternative energy trade. I think the markets kind of realize that you can’t put corn in a gas tank. You can’t put soybeans in a gas tank. These are products that need to get processed in order to make them into fuel. And we are limited by that capacity. However, you do see soybean oil reacting to that lower crude oil here on Wednesday. So there is an aspect there in soybeans, but then we’ve got the geopolitical aspect of our relationship with China. It’s a very, very complicated matter.

Funds Defend or Liquidate Longs in Corn and Other Markets?
The funds are now long in most of the grain markets but especially soybean oil and corn as those markets followed crude oil higher.

So do managed money traders unwind or liquidate those longs as energy markets fall?

“Yes, and a lot of that is technical. You look at corn and early on in the night session, Tuesday night, we were breaking some very, very key support levels in the form of the upward trending channel that we’ve been in since the beginning of January or middle of January in the form of the 50 day, 100 day and the 200 day moving averages that were all clustered between $4.40 and $4.47 and $4.48 1/2. We gapped below those but we we managed by the end of the day on Wednesday to get back and basically close right on top of that or right in the middle of that cluster.”

So he says that saved potential technical liquidation from this newly found long position funds have in the corn of over 257,000 contracts or so. The vast majority of those were put on after March 1st, which means a lot of them were well underwater at one point and probably still are. So there is that risk of that fund liquidation.

However, Seifried adds that funds were trading corn like an energy and now they may hold on to those long positions on the lack of fertilizer and how that could hurt this year’s crop.

“When those of us in the know, Michelle, really realize that that probably is a bigger story for next year, but that has gotten the fund’s attention as well.”

Soybeans Hold on China Optimism
Soybeans gapped lower in the overnight session but rallied back 20 cents off the lows to end slightly higher, holding up better than corn and wheat.

Soybeans got some help from meal but it was more about the idea that if the Iran war is over it will improve U.S. negotiations with China and they might buy soybeans.

“Hey, China got involved with this war in Iran they helped kind of broker this this two-week ceasefire maybe that means relations between the U.S. and China is getting better. So now maybe this means that that opens the door for that meeting to happen sooner rather than later and
honestly we need it to happen sooner rather than later if we have really any chance of getting additional Chinese soybean business within this marketing year. So I do think the market was encouraged by that.”

Interestingly enough, he says the soybean market brushed off a Trump post says that any country that supplies or sells Iran military goods is going to get slapped with a 50% tariff without exception.

“And that is directly pointed at China but soybeans did not react to that, at least not as of now.”

Wheat Also Removes Weather Premium
Wheat removed war premium but was also extracting weather premium with rains in the 7-day forecast for parts of the hard red winter wheat belt.

“We’ve got the crop conditions, which were really bad, sort of out of the way. You know, that’s behind us now. And now looking forward, there’s more rain in the forecast. And there’s actually a pretty significant amount of rain in the forecast for parts of the winter wheat crop. So, you know, with that sort of ceasefire trade or conflict trade coming off, on top of a weather forecast, the idea of the potential for improving conditions, again, that was sort of the double whammy for wheat,” he explains.

Cattle Rally Disappointing?
The cattle futures ended higher with held from lower corn, the soaring stock market and lower gas prices.

However, Seifried says the action was almost disappointing. “You feel like this was a day that cattle could have been absolutely flying, like really sharply higher, go and challenge those previous highs. However, it didn’t really do that. I mean, it stayed on the positive side for the vast majority of the day. So, I mean, it wasn’t a bad day, Michelle, but I think a lot of people felt like it could have been better.”

He points out that technically the live cattle have respected the relative strength index in the mid 70s.

“And that really kind of goes to show how involved the funds are or your technically trading speculators, in the price movement of these markets,” he adds.

Cattle Market Tired or Waiting for Cash?
Seifried doens’t think the market has a whole lot more upside potential even with higher cash as the $9.26 cent gain from last week is already in the market.

He says, “How much higher would it go this week? It really makes you wonder if the news of the strike breaking and JBS really going back to work. How much was known about that by the majors at the end of the week last week? Were they bidding up or making a grab on cash cattle, knowing that they were going to have more competition coming this week? You have to feel like that might have been the case.”

Seifried adds that packers bought over 81,000 head last week and may have a good portion of their needs covered for now.

Corn, Wheat, Crude Oil Fall on Iran Ceasefire: Why Did Soybeans Recover?

Wed, 08 Apr 2026 15:40:10 GMT

Corn and wheat were lower early Wednesday with soybeans slightly higher. Cattle also rallying.

Corn, Wheat Remove Risk Premium
Grain markets gapped lower overnight on a possible two week cease fire between the U.S. and Iran.

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says this also includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, which has resulted in an implosion in the crude oil market.

Of course this spilled over into the grain markets which are also taking out war premium.

“The news broke about between 6:00 and 7:00 pm that a ceasefire deal had been made. That gapped the markets lower, as you mentioned, and we’re holding on to those losses. Soybeans, you know, did start a little bit on the softer side. They’ve been able to come back and
post, you know, some mixed performance, a little stronger. But overall, everything else is seeing some pretty heavy selling pressure.”

Crude Oil Collapses
The crude oil market collapsed overnight and fell below $100. So, how much war premium still needs to come out of the market?

He says, “Right now we’re down close to that $15 to $20, depending on which contract you look at. So we’re seeing a pretty good removal of the war premium that has been built in. But the market is still about $20 to $30 above where it was when the war started. So we still have quite a bit of premium we can give back out of this market or pull back out of this market. I don’t think we’ll do it short term. I think they’re going to wait to see. I think they’ve taken a lot of what they will out of it. Now we’ll see if the ceasefire holds over the next two weeks and if we can get a peace deal done.”

Have Grains Taken Out Enough War Premium?
Martinson says corn, wheat and bean oil have likely taken out enough war premium for now and will wait to see if the cease fire holds and more importantly that ships start to move through the Strait of Hormuz.

“I think we’ve taken quite a bit out of there. We need to start seeing, you know, ships moving through the Strait of Hormuz. It doesn’t sound like anything’s going to start moving until Thursday or Friday. But I think, you know, that’s going to be a key to whether or not the ceasefire is going to, you know, hold or continue. Talks start on Friday. We’ll see how the negotiations go there. But I think the market is going to, you know, right now has taken out a lot of that premium and they’ll kind of relax now and kind of see what happens with how things move going forward.”

Money Flow
Money is also flowing out of the energy and grain markets back into the equity markets.

“We’ve been trading headlines. There’s no question about that over the last couple of weeks. And, you know, we continued with that last night, of course, with the market’s gaping lower. But I do think at some point, you know, we’re getting into the 26 planting season and growing season as well. So I think the market will start paying a little bit more attention to the real fundamentals that are out there as well.”

How Soon Can Fertilizer Get Here?
If the Strait is reopened how soon will fertilizer be able to make it to the U.S. and will prices cool off at all?

Martinson says it may not be that easy to get fertilizer in place for spring planting, “I think that the priority will go to oil shipments or, you know, the crude oil coming through the Strait of Hormuz. I don’t think fertilizer will get the priority that the oil might. So it’ll take a little longer for those ships to start coming through.”

Wheat Removes War and Weather Premium
Wheat is also removing war and weather premium with rains forecasted for some dry areas of the Plains.

“I think it’s a combination. We definitely are going to see less wheat demand, you know, because now if we’re going to open up everything, you know, Russia wheat will become more available and we’ll start to see a little bit more trading take place. So I do think it has the potential to lower the demand for U.S. wheat, especially in some of those Middle East. Also, rain is in the forecast. It looks like the rain is pretty much favoring the eastern, two-thirds of Kansas, not so much the western third. And that’s going to be the big thing to watch forward.”

Why Did Soybeans Recover?
Even with bean oil getting pummeled the soybean market has recovered from overnight lows and has been trying to hold slight gains early Wednesday.

Martinson says this has to do with the hope that if the war ends with Iran it will help the outcome of the China summit.

“I mean, China even got involved with getting the ceasefire deal done. And I think that’s helping to put some support into the soybeans because it’s showing that, you know, one, that it’s going to take the pressure off Trump to be able to have his meeting with Xi at the beginning or in May, like they’ve got scheduled. And it’s likely that means that China is looking to make some announcement of purchasing more U.S. soybeans.”

U.S. China Board of Trade

USTR Jamieson Greer also mentioned that they might be looking at a US-China Board of Trade.

Martinson explains, “They’re kind of looking at putting a group together for both China and U.S. that is going to talk about trade and how trade can move going forward and how it can basically, you know, I guess be implemented. And it’ll be interesting to see if something like that can happen, but it certainly is going to help open up, I think, the dialogue between the two countries.”

Grains Turn to Weather
If the war headlines die down Martinson says grain markets may go back to trading weather.

The Northern Plains saw some pretty heavy snows the last week and moisture is going to continue for the next couple of week.

“So right now, as far as, you know, Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota is concerned,we’re not looking at an early start to planting this year, probably a little bit delayed. And that might shift some more acres away from early season to later season crops. And I think that is something that the market will have to start paying attention to here, especially within the next couple of weeks.”

He thinks between the fertilizer issues and weather the corn market will lose more acres and possibly fall to 93 million. USDA says only 80% of farmers have fertilizer in place, so that will trim corn acreage but not as much as some of the worst case scenarios. “I definitely think that getting down to something around 93 would be a feat for corn to be able to do just because it still shows profitability.”

Cattle Recover with Stock Market, Lower Gas
The cattle market is higher early Wednesday following the relief rally in the equity markets and the easing of gas prices.

So he thinks its possible the market could retest the contract highs hit Monday in the live cattle.

“I mean, it’s been impressive to see the fat cattle market performance the last couple of sessions. But, you know, strong performance, new contract highs, feeder cattle haven’t been able to just close the gap that was created in October. They have not traded to new contract highs. But I do think that the demand and with the JBS plant opening, that’s kind of brought some a little bit better performance to the live cattle side of things.

That is especially true if the cash market can add to last week’s $9.26 cent gains.

“I think we’re going to be flirting back with that $250 level. I think we could get up to that. But I think at that point, that’s when the consumer starts to maybe push beef away on the plate. So it’s going to be interesting to see if the consumer will be willing to pay more for it if we do get back up to those levels,” he adds.

Live Cattle Follow Skyrocketing Cash, JBS Plant Strike Ending: Hogs Rally on FMD in China

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 15:37:39 GMT

Live cattle were higher feeders two sided with hogs sharply higher early Monday. Corn and soybeans were trying to hold gains as wheat fell.

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs
Live cattle were higher early Monday with deferred contracts making new contract highs.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures are chasing sharply higher cash trade from last week.

Cash Skyrockets
Cash trade was higher on Thursday at $245 to $246 in the South, up $8 to $9 and the North traded $245 live and mostly $385 dressed, up $13.

“Absolutely this cash market even with the Greeley plant being closed and even with all the uncertainty going on with the geopolitics and all the other stuff cash was basically $245 in fact there was some $246 bid around here on Saturday, the day before Easter. So that’s pretty impressive.”

He says show lists are very tight in the North, weights are falling and the backlog of big cattle has been worked through.

“Now all of a sudden you’re in between crops of cattle mostly the yearlings are gone and the calves aren’t fat yet even though the weather has been ideal.”

Cash Higher Again This Week?
So will cash trade be higher again this week with feedlots regaining leverage?

Kooima says, “I think yes. I think most everybody’s kind of got $250 in mind this week, and I think we’ll get it. And it’ll probably be led by the North. So it’s kind of weird to me how the packer really lost his leverage last week.”

He adds that the market has already exceeded his expectations and could shoot all the way up to $260 before it runs out of gas.

Greeley Plant Strike Over?
Over the weekend the strike at the JBS plant in Greeley, Colorado ended and so the plant will be killing cattle on Tuesday according to Kooima.

“I think they might get 3,500 cattle dead tomorrow as the union has agreed to go back to work and while they continue to negotiate. So not unexpected. We kind of heard this was coming last week. But of course, that’s going to force that outfit to have to buy a few cattle, we think anyway. And then that should help press the thing toward $250.”

The union went back to work despite their demands being met but Kooima is fairly sure the strike is over for good.

“The back story of this had been that, well, this is a deal, an agreement that all their other plants had already signed on to. And so, you know, a lot of us on the sidelines were thinking like, well, what do you expect JBS to do to make a different deal for Greeley? You know, maybe there’s some small concessions with some benefits or something, but to say that they were going to reopen that whole thing. And then of course, you know, the union leader has of this particular union has a reputation of, enjoying strikes. And so, you know, you wondered about it. I would say that you can’t completely say, okay, no worries at all. But for me, I’d be, I’d be 80% sure that they’re probably back to work to stay,” he explains.

How Long For Greeley to Return to Normal?
So how long will it take to get Greeley back to full capacity?

Kooima says, “I’m guessing, but the boots on the ground there, they think maybe, you know, capacity is 5,400. But I don’t know if there’s a plant
in the universe that’s killing it capacity with this tight supply. The talk was that they maybe could get back to where they were, which is around 4,800 to 5,000, maybe as soon as two weeks. So we’ll see. Probably depends on the margins and the profitability, too. That’ll probably incentivize them, give them a lack of incentive to get real aggressive if the packers kind of lost his margin here on this last last last move here.”

Feeder Cattle Sloppy Fearing Border Reopening
The feeder cattle market has not made new highs like the live cattle and it fact Kooima says was trading two sided and sloppy on Monday.

It is likely the fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle and USDA Secretary Rollins has changed her stance when that event will take place and retreated on how much of threat New World Screwworm (NWS) is to the U.S. cattle herd.

So, Kooima says its more likely within the next few weeks.

“Personally I am really tired of this deal. I think they’ve made so much out of it. This is something that’s treatable. This isn’t mad cow disease. This is a worm. Ever heard of IVAMEC? So her narrative changed in that they think maybe now it’s time to do a gradual reopening. They’d
start way on that west one there, Sonora, the one in New Mexico. They’re 800 miles literally from the nearest incident of screwworm fly.”

However, he says the Mexican cattle industry has built feed yards and packing capacity and is making money so the number of cattle coming across the border may be less than expected.

“They’ve tripled their kill capacity because they’re killing cattle 24-7 instead of eight hours a day for five days. So we may never go back to where
we were. In fact, I doubt very much that we ever will, you know, back to that 1.3 million head a year. But for my money, I don’t know. I think I’d just soon know where they are instead of having to absorb all their meat into our consumption and wondering exactly what it is. But that’s just me,” he says.

Plus he says the market has rallied $23 in three weeks and filled the chart gaps, so it is overbought.

Hogs Rally on FMD in China
Lean hog futures were also higher on Monday with news that China has cases of Foot and Mouth Disease in two provinces.

Kooima says, “Those kind of headlines really will spark it. Obviously, China has been noticeably absent from our export business here because it feels like they’ve got their whole industry back, you know, through their disease cycle and after low productivity, high productivity. Now, I don’t know if FMD is necessarily quite the like PRRS risk or, you know, all this other stuff. But yeah. For now, it’s given us a pretty good headline bounce.”

He adds that disease problems in the U.S. herd are also causing the feeder pig market to rally.

“Everybody’s talking about the disease problems here in the United States as well. PRRS, some new strain. It seems like it never fails. You can only go a year or two before something else happens. So I know these guys that are buying feeder pigs are really chasing the market.”

Corn, Soybeans Struggle to Hold
Corn and soybean futures are struggling to hold slight gains with the wheat market lower and uncertainty tied to war headlines and the energy market looking for direction.

“If you’re bullish you better hang your hat right on that post because that’s I don’t see a lot of other stuff to hold the market except what the weather is going to be this summer and nobody knows what will happen with that,” he states.

Seasonals are a little stronger during the planting season but he says the cash basis levels on corn in the North are weak even around ethanol plants.

“Basis is really weak 40 to 50 under tells me there’s all kinds of old crop corn left. So, let’s give it a chance here the next two weeks let’s hope we bounce a little bit,” he adds.

When Will Grains Become Numb to War Headlines? Have Cattle Already Done That?

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 20:29:03 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended lower on Thursday with cotton, wheat and cattle higher.

Corn and Soybeans Fade Despite Skyrocketing Crude Oil
Corn and soybeans ended lower Thursday fading early strength tied to skyrocketing crude oil prices after President Trump addressed the nation and said the war in Iran would continue and could escalate if Iran doesn’t reach a deal.

Corn and soybeans ran into chart resistance and were also capped by the strong dollar but Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says those markets are also experiencing war fatigue and are tired of chasing every headline.

“I also think when you think about renewable diesel, the EPA, the new rules that the EPA put out, we’re not going to alter that too much depending on what crude is doing. So, when i really look at soybeans and corn I don’t really think there’s as much an energy component as
the market has kind of been worried about. In terms of fertilizer we know soybeans don’t really worry too much about fertilizer prices and corn, unless the weather for planting is not great, I don’t really think producers are going to change their intentions too much.”

So he thinks the market will soon move beyond geopolitics and back to weather.

Markets Setting a New Norm
The crude oil market as well as the grain markets are setting a new norm says Hackett. So, what is that norm?

“If we assume that we’re not just going to leave Iran and everything’s going to go back to the way it was, I mean, I don’t think anyone really believes we’re going back to the way it was. And I think what’s likely going to be that we’re going to keep a ongoing long-term geopolitical premium in the crude oil market and even in the international LNG market and in the fertilizer prices. My feeling is $75 is your low end during good times in the market’s perception. And I think $110 is the high side. I think that’s your new normal in terms of where the market can kind of bounce back and forth depending on how it feels about things.”

He thinks that is positive for higher soybean and corn prices depending on how long the war lasts and the outcome and its impact on energy markets.

“Who’s running the Strait of Hormuz? How much gets through? Who’s policing the Strait of Hormuz? How much of the infrastructure that was damaged, supposedly, how long will it actually take to bring that back on to the marketplace? Is it six months? Is it three months? Is it a year? These are all unanswered questions that we’re going to need clarity on once we feel we’re at a point where this situation has stabilized and we can make these determinations.”

When Will Grains Divorce From the Headlines?
Hackett thinks the grain markets are getting close and will soon turn towards weather for direction.

“I think we’re going to start to move away from it. We’re going to get into the planting season. We’re going to watch planting progress. We’re going to watch how things are progressing.”

He is keeping an eye on the weather and a strong El Nino pattern for the growing season.

“Generally speaking, historically, since 1950, El Ninos have always produced trend line to above trend line yields. The market is going to start to have to factor in the fact that we are probably going to have very good corn and soybean and spring wheat crops and factor that in to the equation of what the market needs to do from current prices. It’s going to be very, very hard for grain markets to take out and move substantially higher if we don’t have weather problems to worry about during the U.S. growing season.”

Will That Uncertainty Keep Funds Defending Their Long Position?
The funds have added to their long position in corn and soybeans and so with the uncertainty about weather, does that keep the funds defending those longs?

Hackett says they are going to defend the longs until they are sure how weather is going to turn out but once El Nino develops and the weather pattern changes they will head for the door.

“I think they’re going to quickly head for the exits as they typically do if weather’s good heading into August, where we’ve historically continue to make harvest lows repeatedly over the last five to seven years.”

Money Flow
So some of buying in the grains has been on money flow out of equities into grains, which are undervalued. So is that move just about done?

Hackett says, “I mean, there’s been a lot of new reaction of buying agriculture because of high fertilizer prices, the long term impact that that has on production, which in fact does if it remains the longer haul. But I do believe we’re not going to see much more of a rotation into
the ag group without getting Mother Nature involved. You can only do this for so long. You can only attract so much capital flows. And then you actually need to see the supplies actually get tight.”

He says that only happens if the U.S. has a poor growing season, which is unlikely.

Wheat Holding Weather Premium?
The wheat market was slightly higher on Friday but lower for the week. There were some rains in HRW areas but coverage wasn’t broad. So is the market trying to hold some weather premium?

“Yeah, some of the western parts of Kansas and the western parts of Oklahoma and the western parts of Nebraska did not catch those rains. It’s still a big swath of the KC winter wheat belt that needs the rains.”

He’s more worried about the likelihood for a flash frost coming in late April, early May.

“A lot of our work says we could be worried about kind of a cold snap that could come in at the wrong time. That might be the weather anomaly to pay more attention to than the dry weather.”

Some of this rally, though, in wheat has been technical and adding some overseas geopolitical premium.

Cotton in Uptrend
The cotton market was higher on Thursday and for the week and is in a clear uptrend. Hackett says the market has been getting help from higher crude oil prices and historically low planted acres for a second year.

“When we look at the blends that most clothes that you buy at the store, the blends are mostly polyester, which is petroleum based and cotton fiber. When polyester is economical, they increase the use of those polyester fibers, reducing the cotton fibers. Right now, the price of cotton relative to the price of polyester is near historic lows, meaning. There is every incentive to increase the blends of cotton and reduce the blends of polyester. And in order to get ourselves into a more normal relationship, Michelle, we’d have to get ourselves into the, let’s say, low to mid 80 cent range on December cotton.”

So he thinks there’s more upside to be had in the market. He also doesn’t buy into the 9.64 million acre planting intentions figure from USDA.

“All our independent work, all the customers we work with in the cotton area, all the economics, we look at it from comparative crops, the fertilizer situation, the cost of equipment, all of it says that we are not going to plant one acre more than we did last year. And we’re sticking to the idea that come June, when we get the June planting report, we’re going to see those numbers come down and be more in line with what we
saw last year.”

Live Cattle Hit Contract Highs Chasing Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Thursday with new contract highs in the deferred live cattle futures cashing cash trade.

A light trade was reported in most areas Thursday afternoon, with Southern live deals at $245 to $246, $8 to $9 higher than last week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed business is marked at $380 to mostly $385, $13 higher than last week’s weighted averages.

Hackett says continued tight supplies are also driving the market. Some herd rebuilding is starting which is further tightening available cattle numbers and that is being priced into the live cattle.

He thinks the market can continue higher with strong demand as long as higher energy prices don’t push the economy into recession.

“Which we don’t think would happen as long as we stay at $110 a barrel or less.”

The market was also impressive as it shook off the lower equity markets and unless the stock market corrects by 20% he thinks the cattle market will stay intact.

Grains and Cattle Trading War Headlines, Not Fundamentals

Thu, 02 Apr 2026 15:37:21 GMT

Grains were higher early Thursday with livestock lower.

Grains Chasing Crude Oil and War Headlines
The grains markets were back higher early Thursday recovering from previous day losses.

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart says the grains are chasing the sharply higher crude oil prices which were up over $10 and Iran war headlines.

President Trump addressed the nation on Wednesday night and said the war with Iran would last two to three more weeks and he warned of a major strike to Iran’s power plants without a deal soon.

That sent energy markets skyrocketing and equity markets lower.

“We knew that the war wasn’t over. We knew it wasn’t going to be over anytime soon. We knew that the Iran premier was not actually asking for a ceasefire. These are all things that are floated to get market reaction. And yes, markets came down, but nothing had changed. So all it took was the next headline saying how the U.S. is going to destroy Iran. Algorithms did what they are trained to do, and that is get triggered to start buying again,” he says.

Largest Oil Supply Disruption in History
Shutting down the Strait of Hormuz is the largest crude oil supply disruption in history.

“Now we’re looking at it most likely getting shut down for an indefinite period of time and you know this doesn’t bode well for prices,” he adds.
You can’t use technicals, you can’t use fundamentals, but the market seems to be building some

How high could crude oil prices go?

Newsom says that is anyone’s guess.

“Who knows, $200, $300, I don’t know. It does bring to mind back in 2008 when all of the talk was about $150 crude oil and it was around $140 at that point, the West Texas Intermediate. But the problem was, as I argued at the time, that the forward curve was actually in a carry so there was no fundamental support. And so by the end of that year, by the end of 2008, it actually wound up down around $33. This time around, as we’re pushing up towards $120 and so on, the forward curve is in strong inverse, meaning that this is supported by the commercial side due to what you just asked about the disruption of supplies and demand is still there. So putting a target out there is difficult to do. It could go as high as possible before it uncovers much selling because nobody’s going to step in front and sell this thing, at least not long term at this point.”

Grain Markets Following Oil, Headlines and Not Fundamentals
The grain markets are back higher early Thursday following crude oil and chasing war headlines says Newsom.

“Yeah, I mean, there’s again, there’s no fundamental change in the grain markets. There hasn’t been for quite some time. And I know a lot of folks come on and talk about, yeah, these markets are still fundamentally driven. Well, I mean, let’s be honest, they’re not the fundamentals don’t change 30,40, 50 cents per day it just it doesn’t happen. Even longer term we can’t really point at fundamentals because these markets have no memory. They don’t remember what happened yesterday. So, you know, if they don’t remember what happened yesterday, then they have no clue as to what the fundamentals actually are. It is simply the latest headline,” he explains.

Money Flow Also a Factor
Money flow is another result of the headlines the market is chasing and in the case of the grains it has brought fund money back into the market as it comes out of the equities.

Funds have added to their length in the grains but will that continue?

He says, “Part of this algorithm trade that we’re seeing, again, based on headlines, is the flow of money. And that’s what sets trend. So all we have to do is watch the trend and we can guess and we can see what the flow of money is doing. And we do know that money is coming out of equities and it is going into energies and it is going over into grains. So, I think this could continue because it is still based on the fear of inflation long term.”

Higher energy prices impact every sector of the markets and it is carrying over into the grain sector and grains are under valued.

“These markets are still down near their lows. If we look at the potential of these markets that’s attractive if we see inflation start to skyrocket. They are attractive to long-term investment money and so you know and this could this could continue to bring some of that money coming out of equities into grains.”

Fear of Fertilizer Prices and Availability
Is the market also concerned about fertilizer prices and supplies for crops in the U.S. and around the globe?

Newsom says at least the corn market is fearful of lower yield. “We didn’t learn anything this week about acres that we didn’t already know. But if input costs will be skyrocketing like diesel fuel, you know, nitrogen fertilizer is skyrocketing as well as a lot of the world’s nitrogen moves through this Strait.”

Cattle Down With Equities
Cattle futures were down with lower equities and higher gas prices after hitting new highs on Wednesday.

Newsom says there is a direct correlation between the cattle market and S&P and that could trigger additional fund selling.

However, he thinks an extended war and inflated gas prices could also hurt long term consumer demand.

Could Higher Gas Prices Lower Beef Demand?
Newsom thinks this could finally be the factor that stops the cattle market rally.

“Because, again, there’s no incentive for producers to increase supplies, to increase the herd. But if we see a reduction in feed availability and an increase in feed costs that even puts a bigger damper on the thing. So, when it comes down to consumer demand and that has been the backbone of what’s held this beef market up and if all of a sudden we’re having to pay you know, $1, $2 more per gallon of gas. I think beef is going to be one of those markets that dies along the wayside as, you know, disposable income goes somewhere else”

While supplies of cattle are tight, weights are heavier and so overall beef supplies are not down enough to withstand a cut in consumer demand.

Grains End Lower Removing Risk Premium: Cattle Make New Highs

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 21:15:40 GMT

Grains ended lower Wednesday with livestock and milk futures all higher.

Grains Fall with Crude Oil Remove Risk Premium
Grain futures ended lower on Wednesday with fund selling across the complex and Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the markets were removing risk premium.

“The reports, the stocks, the acreage numbers, they’re now out of the way. They’re known. Add to that crude oil softening and staying around that $100 or less per barrel and rain on the radar, all of a sudden you’re kind of running out of bullish things, right?”

Is the Rally in Grains Over if the Iran War is Winding Down?
The grains markets were also removing risk premium with President Trump saying the war in Iran would be over in two to three weeks. If that happens and crude oil continues to spiral is the grain market rally over?

Doherty says, “It’s looking likelier that we have a top in the market. I want to be really careful. We’re at a time of the year with as much money
flow as we’ve seen and variables like crude oil, if it’s done rallying. The story just gets harder and harder for corn.”

He says quarterly stocks were nearly 877 million bushels higher than a year ago with projected ending stocks still at 2.1 billion bu. on corn.

“Corn acreage was down but the numbers came on a survey that was prior to corn challenging the $5 area on December, or at least most of the numbers. So it seems like the market vote right now is cautiously turning negative.”

Profit Taking?
Some of the pull back in the grains can be tied to general profit taking says Doherty as the funds have been on a buying spree the last few weeks since the war in Iran began.

“The managed money in the Commitment of Traders Report showed they were 284 000 contracts net long in corn that is a big number for this time of the year.”

He says that helped drive up corn prices but if the market weakens further it could trigger more technical selling and profit taking.

“We saw this past week stochastics give a sell signal and two bearish key reversals in five days a break under channel line support a jump back up to retest that channel line support and then failure. So technically it looks a little soft,” he explains.

Fundamentally, he is also running out of a bullish story.

Do Funds Defend Their Longs Going Into the Growing Season?
Funds are long corn and were record long in the soybean complex to start the week. So do they defend those positions through planting and at least the early growing season?

“The last two years they didn’t, right? The market started trending lower and then they just don’t look back. There was no immediate catalyst. Now when I talk about immediate catalyst let’s say a prolonged drier pattern, followed by more dryness. Last year after a dry planting period we had timely rains throughout the season,” he says.

That weather produced a record corn crop, but this year there are growing drought concerns. So, he thinks its too early to tell if the funds will stay long.

Wheat Removes Weather Premium
Wheat had an ugly day but was also removing weather premium on Wednesday with forecasts for rain in the Central and Southern Plains.

“There was just enough of an outlook change or increasing some rainfall totals that the market may have come under pressure today. Traders move their stops up pretty tight. Market starts to trip those. And all of a sudden you got, after a good day yesterday, you got an ugly looking day today,” he adds.

Corn Acres Fall, Soybeans Rise Moving Forward?
With the Prospective Plantings Report out of the way the chatter continues about whether or not the corn market will lose additional acres due to high fertilizer prices and some supplies not being available for the planting season. Conversely soybeans may need to buy more acres with strong RVOs and a China deal.

Doherty says it looks like there will be some logistical issues with fertilizer.

“And so farmers are going to have to make decisions. That being said, though, I’d make the argument in the circles that I talk with daily I think most of these progressive producers are pretty well set for this year. It’s more the fringe acres or the smaller farmer who needs to buy fertilizer yet and faces some big challenges and may have to switch some acres to soybeans,” he explains.

However, he doesn’t think the switch means more than 4 million less acres of corn compared to last year. “There was too much of a rally in new crop corn that I think farmers could push into.”

Still he thinks it’s too early for anybody to call.

Cattle Make New Highs
Feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move with deferred live cattle making new contract highs.

The combination of higher cash and strong demand seem to be pushing the market in additional to technical buying.

Doherty says, “But ultimately, it’s the same story. Limited supply. Feeder barns are active. Prices push higher. You’ve got retailers, I think, pushing to get the inventory in. In the U.S. people are working and they’re buying beef, the price doesn’t seem to scare them.”

Will the Rally Continue?
Doherty thinks the market may be close to peaking.

“To keep a market sustained upward in this kind of trend, one, you’ve got to prove it eventually, right? We are proving that $200 is the new low in cattle and probably $225 to $235 the new norm. The $245 to $250 level has not proven that demand can move above those levels and keep up with those prices. So, I think we’re just in that window here from a long-term perspective where the market’s offering some very good opportunities to defend prices in some capacity,”

Milk Futures in Upper End of Trading Ranges
Class III milk futures were higher on Wednesday and are up at the top end of the recent trading ranges. So what pushes the market to new highs?

Doherty isn’t sure. “It doesn’t appear that it’s the cash market leading the rally in cheese or the product. As I look at those values, something like April milk, $17.49 today that’s well over a $1 higher than March. So I don’t know what the next 30 days have in it.”

He thinks milk should be able to hold a premium due to strong export demand but he also thinks the market is getting up to points fundamentally its hard to argue for higher prices without improved demand.

“And right now, the cheese market down $1.59 on barrels, $1.63 on the blocks. That’s not buying it right now. Butter was off a couple cents today, $1.75. I don’t think that supports any of the futures prices where they’re currently priced,” he adds.

Grains Retreat with Crude Oil: So is the Rally Done if the Iran War is Over?

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 15:39:59 GMT

Grains were lower early Wedneday, with cattle two-sided and hogs higher.

Grains Retreat
Grains were sharply lower on Wednesday taking back most of the gains from Tuesday.

DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says with the reports out of the way the grain market has gone back to trading Iran war headlines and following the crude oil market.

President Trump said on Tuesday the Iran war was nearing the end which sent the stock market sharply higher and crude oil lower and that trend is continuing on Wednesday.

Bosse says, “President Trump this morning is kind of talking about we might be out of Iran within two, three weeks. Iran mentioned something yesterday afternoon about they want to end the war, but on their terms. And I’m like, well, what are those terms? You know, so there’s still a lot of questions out there. But I think obviously President Trump doesn’t like to see high energy prices and the stock market lower. So I think he wants to end the war as soon as he can.”

Is the Grain Rally Over?
So if the war is nearly over is the grain rally also done?

Bosse says the U.S. can’t really leave Iran until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Iran wants a cease fire but that may not happen until the Strait is reopened.

Plus, he says it will take a while to get crude oil production back to normal due to all the damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

“I mean, we had these huge records amounts of oil and supply beforehand. We were at $55 and really looked like there was no reason to rally. Stop that straight from flowing and then you damage infrastructure and the price is going to stay higher for a while. I think crude oil we could end the war tonight when Trump speaks maybe he’s going to declare victory and we’re leaving. That could mean lower crude oil futures but I see us at $85 and higher probably all summer,” he explains.

If Crude Oil Prices Stay Elevated Will Funds Stay in the Grains?
Funds have been buying grains the last month with the higher crude oil prices and fear of fertilizer and fuels shortages, plus rising inflation.

If crude oil prices stay elevated will that keep the funds defending that position in the grain markets?

Bosse says, “I think so especially with yesterday’s report. I don’t think there was anything in that to really scare them out of their long positions. Even if the war is over I think energy prices and transportation costs stay high and that should support grain prices.”

On top of that there is some fear about shortages of fertilizer, seed and other inputs that could Bosse says could rally the market yet.

Do Corn Acres Fall From Here?
USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report did show 1 million more acres of corn than expected but yet at 95.3 million acres, that is still 3.5 million less than last year.

With the concerns about fertilizer and other inputs will that trim acres further?

“Everyone’s figuring out that. The trade estimate was a little bit too low anyway because I think we were getting ahead of this problem with fertilizer prices spiking. We’ve got to remember when these surveys went out March 1 you know the majority of producers actually answered it that day and back then the war was just getting started. So, I don’t think we’re seeing any acre shift yet. This winter seed companies said everyone wanted to plant corn.”

Principal Acres Low
Bosse is also concerned that total principal crop acres at only 310 million were down 1.5 million acres from last year and corn and soybean acreage was right at 180.

“I think both of those end up north of that. So here we go again, like last year. I feel like the June report could be a bearish surprise with more acres. I just hope we find out those acres in June and not January this time.”

He says the only thing that could change that is weather and possible prevent plant.

“But to me, to be 310 million acres, principal crop acres, you’re going to have to prevent plant really high this year. And I don’t see that happening.”

Fear of Fertilier Shortages?

At the same time farmers are starting to report that they can’t get fertilizer, even the tons they booked ahead or paid for.

Bosse is hearing the same thing. “Elevators, co-ops may think they have fertilizer booked and coming, but we’re hearing some rumors that they’re not sure if they’re going to get it or not now. It’s funny, yeah, some of these boats in transit that had gone through the Strait before the war began were headed this way, right? Money talks and I wouldn’t doubt if some of those boats got shifted and moved around a little bit. So I’m a little concerned about that. You know, obviously to even book fertilizer prices now, nobody can really guarantee anything. A lot of it’s like, we’ll see what the price is when it gets here.”

Will Soybean Acreage go Up?
So if corn acreage comes down has the soybean market seen the lowest acreage in the March report especially if the U.S. and China strike a trade deal?

“Yeah, I think that soybean acres number will increase moving forward. Obviously, that meeting between Trump and Xi is going to happen here in a month, and especially if the war ends. So that’ll keep the funds wanting to be long. The soybean market will kind of keep this premium in it that I don’t know if we truly need unless they buy our old crop,” he adds.

And Bosse thinks the China deal could be a new crop story for soybeans but not old crop and even then he’s skeptical.

“Our government has promised that they’re going to buy 25 million metric ton moving forward. If they’re going to do that now is kind of the time they need to start doing that. So that’s kind of still what I’m looking for in this meeting is for some sort of large purchase but it’ll probably be new crop not old crop and i don’t really know if that’s bullish the soybean market anymore,” he states.

If the U.S. doesn’t get any of the 8 MMT of old crop business President Trump has declared then Bosse says ending stocks are too high.

“I think we’re going to have to raise our ending stock, lower the export demand, 100 million bushels, maybe 130 million bushels.”

USDA Report Response Rate
The farmer response rate on the USDA report was only 37% and Bosse says that is a problem.

“From what it looks like, it looks like it’s historic low. I see on social media some talk about, well, Farmers don’t like to report because all USDA
does is make the market go down. And I’d really encourage producers to fill those out. But I think I might know what the problem is. We farm as well. And we received our survey in the mail the exact same day it was due. Luckily, I’ve got a partner that’s on the ball. He opened it up and did the survey online. So we participated in it. But I wonder how many producers out there can be lazy like me and don’t open mail every day. If it’s two or three days later, they missed it. Maybe there’s some adjustments we can make from NASS and USDA to get these surveys out sooner so farmers have time to participate in it. But we want farmer participation in this, Michelle, because if we don’t, then it’s just private companies giving out their own numbers and surveys.”

Cattle Pushed by Technical Buying and Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures were two-sided early but made new highs for the move on Tuesday and filled the chart gap areas from last October. If those technical areas can be breached to market could make new highs.

Bosse says the market has been driven higher on technical buying and strong cash and the rally in the stock market didn’t hurt. Showlists are smaller again this week so tighter supplies are driving ideas of higher cash again.

But he fears higher gas prices could eventually hurt demand if they stick around all summer.

Reopening the Border to Mexican Feeder Imports?
The cattle market has also shook off reports over the weekend that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is considering a staggered reopening of the border to Mexican feeders starting in Arizona.

“So they’ll start in the West, I think even along the Arizona border, and they won’t open it to the East where really that’s where all the cattle flow across Texas border, of course, until later. But just the fact that within two, three weeks, it sounds like they’re going to make this announcement that this is happening. I would have thought we could have been down seven bucks or limit on news like that. But here we are rallying,” he says.

Soybeans, Wheat Rally as Acreage Below Expectations: Will Corn Acres Fall Further?

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:15:27 GMT

Grain and cattle futures ended higher Tuesday.

Grains Supported by Money Flow
Grain futures closed mostly higher Tuesday following the USDA reports.

Arlan Suderman with StoneX some of the support in the grains came from money flow with the rally in the crude oil market and continued higher fertilizer prices which have funds buying grains on ideas of shrinking crops globally.

“Money flow has been coming into the food and energy-based commodities on expectations that as long as the Strait Hormuz is closed to movement of energy and fertilizer through it, it risks higher prices, and not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even
food shortages. In fact, there’s quite a headline going across Wall Street on day-to-day now expecting global crisis of food here in the months ahead. The United Nations adding to that.”

Corn Acres Cut
USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report showed a 3.45 million acre cut in corn acres from 2025 to 95.4 million largely due to rotation and the higher input prices to plant corn. However, that was above trade expectations.

“There’s a rotation. It’s not a straight 50-50 every year. That was part of the reason we expected corn acres to be down. Perhaps that’s part of the reason that we saw Iowa, Wisconsin acres down, Nebraska acres down as part of that annual flip-flop of rotation. But overall... think the high fertilizer prices, the lower, the high input costs, I should say, overall, even before the war started weighing into this, in addition to expectations and now confirmed expectations that we would have a strong biofuel program for this next year that would increase demand for soybean oil.”

Still Suderman says it is likely that may be the highest acreage print as higher fertilizer prices could trim even more acres through the planting season.

“The tendency would be there. But it comes down to weather, though, as well. If the weather’s good for planting, we tend to increase corn acres. If it’s not, we tend to increase soybean acres. And I think that’ll still hold true. The core of the Midwest doesn’t like to change its rotations. Changes tend to happen in the Plains and in the South.”

Corn Production and Ending Stocks Projections
Using the 95.4 million acres and a 183 trend line yield for corn put production at 15.9 billion bu. says Suderman.

“That’s down about 1.1 billion from last year. Ending stocks dropped down to around 1.7 billion bushels, that’s a little over a 10% stocks to use ratio. That’s adequate to meet demand for the coming year. But if you drop that via weather or acreage or whatever might reduce that, then you start getting tight and the market gets uncomfortable. So we’ve taken away some of our margin for error in the coming year.”

Acreage Offset by Lower Quarterly Stocks on Corn?
The higher acreage may have been offset by lower than expected quarterly stocks for corn at 9.024 billion bu. That was up 11% or 877 million bu. from last year. However, that is below the nearly 1 billion bu. increase expected by the trade due to higher usage and disappearance.

Suderman says, “And particularly with the industry commonly believing USDA is too high on their feed and residual use number. Now, remember that’s feed and residual. Residual is just a plain number depending on how accurate they are with the production of the crop. If you assume the crop size is what USDA says in January, then they need to come down on that feed and residual number. Today’s number gives us our first concrete evidence that perhaps they overstated the size of this year’s crop. And I hear farmers across the Midwest saying, I told you so. They’ve been arguing that all along. We’ll see. It could be survey error as well.”

So he says we need to see another quarterly stocks report or two to see if this trend holds.

Soybean Acreage Up to 84.7 Million
USDA raised soybean acreage 3.485 million acres from 2025 to 84.7 billion bu. However, that was under the trade estimate.

The higher acreage came as farmers, especially in the Northwestern Corn Belt, shifted acres back to soybeans. Plus, higher fertilizer prices made the idea of more corn a challenge says.

“That was the area of the Midwest where we were most vulnerable without fertilizer in position before the war started.”

Farmers Optimistic About Better Soybean Demand?
Another factor is the demand picture for soybeans is better than a year ago, with increased RVOs and China export demand.

Suderman explains, “When you look at this crop, if we assume USDA’s 53 bushel yield from their outlook form and these acreage, that gives us a crop of about 4.43 billion bushels. That’s up about 170 million bushels from last year’s crop. You look at a strong biofuel program that we have for this coming year. Then it comes down to does China buy the 25 million metric tons of soybeans? Do they buy 12 million metric tons like they did this year? If they buy the 12 million metric tons, then this is adequate. But if they buy the 25 million metric tons that they committed to back in October, this is not enough acreage.”

How Many Additional Soybean Acres are Needed?
He thinks the market needs to buy another one to two million acres.

“Again, it comes down to what your confidence level is on China buying 25 million metric tons in the coming marketing year. I’m not comfortable with that number because of the price differential with Brazil. So it would have to be bought by the state grain buyers going into the reserves, and the reserves are full. I do think that they’ll buy soybeans,” he says.

Suderman does expect a China deal on May 14 but he doesn’t expect a significant amount of soybeans but instead there could be a significant purchase of corn.

“And the market’s not expecting that. If that happens, then corn would have to fight for acres once again as well.”

Wheat Acres Record Low
All wheat acres were a record low at 43.78 million with spring wheat acres down 570,000 acres to 9.42 million and the lowest levels since 1971.

This isn’t a surprise with the low profitability of wheat in the U.S. according to Suderman.

However, he says acreage is also declining in major producing countries around the globe due to the higher fertilizer and fuel prices. “Our office in Australia is now saying that Australia acreage should be down about 6% this coming year. Australia will be the next big test of the fertilizer issue and how yields hold up as they look to the planting season ahead. And how much fertilizer do they apply? Do they cut back?
Do they have availability of fertilizer? They’d be most directly impacted by the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz as far as fertilizer flow.”

The U.S. has plenty of surplus wheat with stocks at 1.3 billion bu. and up 64 million from last year.

“Does all this will mean that the rest of the world has to now come to the U.S. to get our surplus supplies and work those levels down over the coming year or two?” he asks.

Wheat on Verge of Technical Breakout
Wheat had a strong close on Tuesday and from a technical standpoint in on the verge of a breakout.

“Today would indicate that. I hate to say that on one day’s action. We need to see follow through tomorrow, but the money flow narrative fits. And so that would be the risk at this point, I would say, if we can confirm it tomorrow.”

Plus, many of the major wheat producing states had significantly lower crop ratings on Monday.

“We all know that that can change in a hurry if rains fall. Now, if you look at the forecast for rains for the next two weeks, there are good rains forecast for areas of the Central and Southern Plains where it’s been the driest. But the Western, the Southwestern Plains, that’s really 70% of the hard red winter wheat belt. It really remains pretty dry with very limited moisture. So if we get through the next two weeks and we don’t see
much rain, that could start really coming into threatening the size of this year’s crop at that point,” he adds.

Cotton Acreage Increases
Cotton acreage was a bit of a surprise coming in at 9.64 million acres. That was up above expectations and the National Cotton Council’s 9 million acre projection.

Suderman says he wasn’t as low as those projections because it’s really tough to change cotton acres and you have the equipment.

“And I think we’re getting acreage down now where it’s tough to fall much lower than where we are because the equipment really locks you into growing cotton. The poor profitability of cotton and the fertilizer situation is going to play into that as well and how that acreage might change,” he states.

However, he says the biggest increase came in Texas and farmers in the South have been planting for a while now. “So, March surveys should be closer to farmer intentions oncotton than it is in the other crops.”

Cattle Make New Highs for the Move
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move again on Tuesday.

Suderman says the market got help from the rally in the equity markets but is also getting a push from last week’s higher cash and some technical buying.

“I think part of it is this money flow issue on food scarcity issues, wanting to own food-based commodities and protein is on top of the pyramid right now under this administration.”