Livestock Markets

Buckle Up: Cattle Market Structure Signals the Highs May Still Be Ahead

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 15:51:04 GMT

For cattle producers wondering whether today’s price levels are sustainable, or whether the market has already peaked, the underlying fundamentals suggest the industry may not be finished yet. Despite historically high cattle and beef prices, the U.S. cow herd continues to contract, herd rebuilding has yet to meaningfully begin and beef demand remains resilient even as prices climb. And when you combine those forces together, it’s a recipe that indicates tight supplies are likely to persist well into the second half of the decade, setting the stage for continued strength, and potentially even higher highs yet this year.

That outlook was reinforced during a U.S. Farm Report roundtable markets discussion at this year’s CattleCon in Nashville, with Oklahoma State University Extension livestock economist Derrell Peel, Don Close, senior protein analyst for Terrain, and Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain.

Close has been in the business for 48 years, and he says he’s waited his whole career for this, as the dynamics in the cattle market continue to build a strong case for cattle prices. And while there is definite risk at these price levels, and volatility is certain, both Peel and Close are bullish on cattle this year.

Inventory Report Confirms the Industry is Still Shrinking

The latest USDA Cattle Inventory report released last week showed another year-over-year decline in beef cows, underscoring just how tight supplies have become. While the number itself was not shocking, the market’s reaction reflected the realization that contraction is not over.

“The fact that [the beef herd] was down some was not a particular surprise,” Peel says. “I thought it also could have been up slightly, so plus or minus unchanged. It came in a little smaller than that. But in general, the report from my standpoint was pretty much what I expected.”

What matters most, according to Peel, is not a single percentage point, but the trend line producers are still on.

“The net effect is we continue to get smaller in this industry, and we are not growing at this point,” he adds.

For producers hoping tighter numbers would soon give way to expansion, the report instead confirmed the industry is still digging deeper into contraction.

Replacement Heifers Signal Intention, Not Expansion

One of the few increases in the report came in beef replacement heifers, but Close cautions producers should not confuse that with meaningful herd growth.

“I think it’s an encouraging indication that they’re starting to think about it,” Close says. “If you look at the offset to the decline in count numbers to an increase of 42,000, 44,000 heifers, there’s no real offset there. We’re still in the infancy of any expansion, and it can, depending on weather, go either way.”

From Close’s perspective, the increase reflects mindset more than action. After several years of drought and forced liquidation, producers are beginning to consider rebuilding, but that process is slow, cautious and far from uniform.

“I think the anecdotal evidence we’re seeing when talking with producers is [they’re] starting to see some very modest expansion,” he says. “And I would conclude with the number of ads we’re seeing online of bred heifers for sale, we’re just starting.”

That “just starting” phase suggests calf supplies will remain tight for several more years, even if expansion intentions continue to grow.

Very Solid Technical Uptrend in Cattle

From a market structure standpoint, Vaclavik says cattle and feeder cattle futures continue to reflect the supply realities producers are seeing today.

“The cattle market and the feeder cattle market are two of the strongest and most orderly bull markets that we’ve seen in a long, long time,” he says.

Vaclavik points to the long-term chart as evidence the rally is not speculative, but fundamentally driven.

“You basically go back, and it’s very easy to see. You go back to when the lows were posted in 2020, like right around the COVID timeframe, and what we built out of that,” he says. “I know there’s been some volatility, but big picture, it’s a very, very solid technical uptrend.”

While he acknowledges the potential for short-term disruptions, Vaclavik says the underlying fundamentals remain firmly in control.

“I just, I don’t see anything fundamentally to set this thing back,” he says. “I do worry about things like headline risk. You know, you worry about ‘Is Trump going to go on another crusade against beef prices?’ ‘Is there going to be a screwworm headline?’ There’s a lot of things that, over the near term, could result in a setback.”

However, he emphasizes recent inventory data does little to change the bigger picture.

“I just, I don’t see it as being material. It’s not enough to reverse the course,” Vaclavik says.

Market Structure Suggests the Highs May Not Be In Yet

When asked whether cattle prices have already peaked, Close was clear in his assessment.

“We’re not convinced we’ve seen the highs,” he says.

Looking at supply constraints and demand strength, he sees room for additional gains in fed cattle prices.

“We’re thinking we could see fed cattle prices this year up an additional 8% to as much as 10% over the average prices we saw in 2025,” Close says.

He points out the market correction tied to political headlines last fall ultimately strengthened the rally prices are currently experiencing, rather than ending it.

“When we went through that period in October, we had the headlines and the involvement from the administration, and that really gave us a scare, but it also gave a correction in the market,” he explains. “So, when we take the fundamentals we think we’ve been working with, and that was confirmed in that cattle inventory report last Friday, I think the structure of the market to continue the rally is absolutely in place.”

Even with the resounding bullish sentiment headlining the discussion, Vaclavik has a clear and pointed message for producers.

“I love all this optimism, but it scares me a little bit. Remember to keep your business a business. Don’t gamble,” he says.

Herd Rebuilding Timeline Keeps Slipping

One of the most critical implications for producers is how far the industry has delayed rebuilding the cow herd.

“We keep pushing off the timeline,” Peel says. “Every year that we could have started some heifer retention, we haven’t. So, I think we’re still pushing off that timeline.”

Even if producers begin retaining heifers in 2026, Peel says the biological clock means supply relief will not arrive quickly.

“If we start saving heifers in 2026, then that’s the start, but time it out. If you save a heifer calf in ’26, breed her in ’27, it’s 2028 or the end of the decade before we change beef production,” he says.

Peel also notes replacement heifers will first be used just to hold the line.

“The small increase we saw in replacement heifers may signal that we’re thinking about it a little bit,” he says. “But the other thing you have to keep in mind is that the beef cow herd has gotten smaller, and we’ve been culling less, so we need to replace some of those cows going forward. It’s going to take some of these additional heifers just to maintain the herd we’ve got.”

Delayed Culling Could Push Slaughter Higher

Close adds that years of holding onto older cows could create another wrinkle in the supply picture.

“If you take the number of cows that probably should have gone to town, but were kept back in 2024 to get one more calf, the same thing repeated in 2025,” he says. “I actually think we could see a modest increase in cow slaughter in 2026 just because of those cows that we kept an extra year or two longer than they probably should have stayed.”

That dynamic could further slow the pace of true herd expansion, even as producers begin thinking about rebuilding.

Another Bullish Factor: Beef Demand Continues to Hold Firm

High prices have raised concerns about whether consumers will eventually push back, but Close says demand data continues to defy that narrative.

“Over the last two years at Terrain, we’ve spent more time trying to evaluate and study what we can about demand,” he says. “We’ve known what the supply is.”

By examining beef prices relative to income, inflation and competing proteins, Close said the results remain consistent.

“We’re looking at all-fresh beef prices against the consumer price index. We’re looking all fresh against average hourly wage. We’re now looking at beef in relationship to both pork and broilers,” he says. “And all those matrices that we’re looking at, we’re not seeing and have not yet seen any softening in beef demand. It’s still in place.”

Peel agrees consumer behavior continues to support higher prices, even if there is talk about bringing beef prices down.

“I don’t think we have a demand problem or a beef price problem. Consumers are still paying,” Close says. “If consumers didn’t want to pay high prices for beef, they don’t have to. There’s places they can go. They’re still paying it.”

Tighter supplies mean prices may need to rise further.

“We do have supply getting tighter, and it’s going to continue to get tighter, which probably means we’re going to use higher prices in the future to ration a tighter supply even compared to where we are now,” Peel says.

What it All Means for Cattle Producers

With herd rebuilding still largely on hold, cow numbers continuing to tighten and beef demand holding firm, their message to producers is consistent: the fundamentals that drove cattle prices to record levels are still in place. While volatility and headline risk remain, the supply-side realities suggest the market may not yet be finished rewarding cattle producers as the industry heads toward 2026.

Grain Markets Reverse the Reversal

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 21:30:56 GMT

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Grains Mount an Impressive Rally

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 21:49:34 GMT

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Grains Bounce Back from Friday's Weakness Ft. Oliver Sloup

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 17:06:38 GMT

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Did the USDA Set Corn Prices Up For a Santa Claus Rally?

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 21:40:48 GMT

Check out our WASDE report Recap! (with charts!)

Did the USDA Set Corn Prices Up For a Santa Claus Rally? - Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Soybeans Breakdown and Cattle Breakout!

Fri, 05 Dec 2025 21:37:07 GMT

Weekly Grain Market Summary

Tuesday’s WASDE estimates at the bottom of this page

Market Overview

Grain markets experienced choppy trading throughout the week before finishing uniformly lower on Friday. March corn futures closed down 2½ cents at 444¾, losing 3 cents for the week. January soybeans dropped 14¼ cents to settle at 1105¼, marking a 32½ cent weekly decline—the first weekly loss in eight weeks. March Chicago wheat fell 4½ cents to 535¾, down 2¾ cents on the week.

SOYBEANS

U.S. Market Developments: U.S.-China trade relations showed significant improvement over the last several weeks. U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer indicated trade relations with China have stabilized, though he emphasized the need for more balanced, smaller-scale trade focused on non-sensitive goods.

South American Production: Brazil’s soybean planting for 2025/26 reached 89% of expected area as of late November, up 8 percentage points from the previous week but lagging last year’s 91%. Irregular rainfall continues to impact key producing states including Mato Grosso, Goias, Maranhao, and Piaui, while Rio Grande do Sul faces declining moisture after early-season excess.

StoneX cut Brazil’s 2025/26 soybean production forecast by 0.9% to 177.2 million metric tons, citing productivity reductions in Mato Grosso and Goias despite modest area expansion. Despite the revision, the forecast still points to a record crop. Brazilian exporter 3tentos expects soybean origination to grow from 4.11 million tons in 2025 to 4.8 million tons in 2026.

Anec maintained its projection for record Brazilian soybean exports of 110 million tons in 2025, up from 97.3 million tons last year, driven primarily by Chinese demand.

Chinese Demand: The USDA’s Beijing post forecasts China’s 2025/26 soybean imports at 106 million metric tons, down 1 million tons year-over-year as Beijing continues limiting import growth. The projection reflects restrained crushing demand growth of 2% and government efforts to control imports. China’s domestic production is forecast at 19.9 million metric tons.

Read the full report with our WASDE estimates here: Soybeans Breakdown and Cattle Breakout! - Blue Line Futures

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500Performance DisclaimerHypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.Research DisclaimerAll information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal DisclaimerThis message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Corn and Wheat Reverse and Soybeans are Hanging on by a Thread | Ft. Oliver Sloup

Wed, 03 Dec 2025 21:34:09 GMT

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500Performance DisclaimerHypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.Research DisclaimerAll information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.This email may include information produced by third parties. Material not labelled Blue Line Futures LLC should be considered to be third-party, and is provided for informational purposes only. Third-party material is from sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy is not guaranteed by Blue Line Futures LLC.Seasonal DisclaimerThis message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

A Surprise Rally in Ag Markets Ahead of Thanksgiving!

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 20:22:58 GMT

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Futures trading involves substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points which can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program which cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results and all of which can adversely affect actual trading results. Seasonal Disclaimer This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.