Markets - General

Oregon Farmers Navigate The Ups And Downs Of A Changing Ag Landscape

Wed, 06 May 2026 22:05:35 GMT

Helle and Bruce Ruddenklau make almost every agronomic move on their Willamette Valley, Oregon, farm with their balance sheet in mind. Crop rotations, contracts and niche markets are the core tools they use to maneuver through and survive today’s costly inputs and soft crop prices.

The couple farm about 1,100 acres near Amity, Ore. They own a third of the ground and rent the rest.

About half the acres are in commercial grass seed — perennial ryegrass and fescue for lawns, golf courses, sports fields and parks. The rest of their acreage cycles through wheat, an oilseed called Meadowfoam (highly sought after in cosmetics, skincare products, and specialty industrial applications), green beans, occasional sweet corn and peas, radish seed for export to Japan, clover seed and hazelnuts.

The crop diversity is critical. It helps even out the economic ups and downs of farming, and it also helps address a problem the couple didn’t even know they had initially in the 1990s: herbicide-resistant grass weeds, a challenge exacerbated by the fact they produce commercial grass seed.

“We had to come up with a different way of fighting some of these grassy weeds without chemistry, and that was through rotation. And no-till was the other big, big thing,” Helle recalls.

In the late 1990s, the couple invested in a no-till drill and redesigned their rotation.

“The (commercial) grass seeds stay in for two to four years, and when they come out, we have at least two years of other crops in those fields so we can get new chemical applications on, try to rotate and get on top of any grassy weeds that may have built up,” Helle tells Andrew McCrea during a recent episode of Farming The Countryside , available on Farm Journal TV.

Focused On Crop Diversity To Create Income

Crop rotation is a framework for stacking income streams. Every crop has to pull its weight against rising fertilizer and fuel costs.

“As with all farmers, our input costs are higher than what they have been. That’s been a huge challenge. Everybody here’s trying to find something that’s more profitable to grow,” she says, adding that she believes Midwest farmers have an even harder time generating ROI.

Grass seed has delivered strong margins at times, but COVID-era demand whipsawed the market. A surge in lawn and turf projects sent prices sharply higher in 2020. Seed companies then pushed acres. A couple of variable years later, and the industry became awash in seed.

“We’re still working through that oversupply from three years ago or so,” Helle says. “Our price has dropped in half, basically, from what it was.”

With prices cut and input costs elevated, some growers are rolling the dice and producing grass seed on speculation.

“You have the option to grow grass seed without a contract, and then you have it on the open market,” she says. “If there’s a market for it, you can sell it. If not, you just sit with [it] in the barn and wait.”

The Ruddenklaus work hard to avoid being in that position, growing most everything under contract.

“We have one field that we have an open market Kentucky 31 variety on. But other than that, everything we grow is under contract on both the grass seed, specialty crops, hazelnuts, vegetables, everything.”

Relationships Play An Important Role In Farming

That contract-first mindset shapes what they plant and who they do business with.

“A lot of it is relationships with different dealers… that we know they will treat us fairly, and they know that we will produce a quality product for them,” she says.

Those relationships open doors to new niche markets that fit within their existing rotation.

“A few years ago, a local economic development company came to us and said a local soy sauce manufacturer was looking to have some local production of hard red spring wheat,” she recalls. “Oregon traditionally grows soft white wheat, so it’s not something we had worked with in the past, but we decided to try it, and that’s become a very valuable little niche market for us that has worked out well.”

Through that same connection, the farm links with AgLaunch, a Tennessee-based network that brings farmers and ag tech startups together.

“The companies come in [and] want to get the support of the farmers, the advice, the on-farm trials,” she says. “In exchange, they have to give up some equity to the farmers’ network. So through that, we also are getting exposure to some new companies and potentially new opportunities. We are definitely always looking at things.”

Some experiments — like trying grain corn and soybeans — have not become permanent fixtures on the farm. But even those tests help the Ruddenklaus calibrate where their competitive edge really lies: in specialty crops backed by contracts and rotations that help them manage weeds and other risks at the same time.

“I think agriculture has an amazing, amazing story. Farmers are innovators, and that’s just part of what we have done through generations,” Helle says.

“I’m not pessimistic about where we’re at,” she adds. “I believe agriculture has a bright, bright future. We belong in society. We have an important role to play. It won’t look the same as it has in the past, but we’ll figure it out.”

Helle was the recipient of the Top Producer 2026 Woman in Agriculture award . The award was sponsored by ProFarmer.

Know someone you would like to nominate for the Top Producer Woman In Agriculture? Nominations are open! Recommend your candidate here .

Farmers Emphasize Demand, Not Payments, Is The ‘Bridge To Better Times' For Agriculture

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 22:25:36 GMT

Two Midwest farmers are pinning their hopes for the future on stronger demand for corn and soybeans — especially the latter — as they navigate tight margins, high input costs, and an uncertain price outlook.

Northern Illinois farmer Steve Pitstick and south-central Iowa farmer Dennis Bogaards say they have exhausted most cost-cutting options for this season. They believe future profitability now rests on whether demand for both crops — particularly from domestic soybean crush and fuel markets — expands enough to support higher prices.

One silver lining currently, Pitstick says, is his relatively strong position on fertilizer heading into the 2026 planting season.

“We will do pretty much the dry spread program we always do,” he says. “We cut the rates a little bit on the phosphates just because of price. We booked our 32% in September, something we traditionally do. We have all the nitrogen bought, so I feel good about 2026 from that aspect.”

While he believes additional fertilizer is available, he notes it will likely be priced at a premium.

“I believe I can get more if I need it. I may not like the price, but I can get more,” he told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory during the weekly Farmer Forum segment.

Little To No Expansion On The Horizon

As the season begins, both farmers emphasize that the coming years will have farmers focusing on survival and strategic adjustments rather than acreage expansion.

One adjustment Bogaards is making is front-loading some of his nitrogen needs this season while leaving a portion open in case prices break.

“We booked anhydrous early on for this year, back in early fall, and got an OK price,” Bogaards says. “I have a little bit of sidedress that we do. We book about half of that, and I sit open on the rest of it. I’ll wait and see where it goes.”

Bogaards remains committed to sidedressing as long as product is available and prices do not continue ratcheting up. “If I can get it, I’ll put it on, unless it is a crazy, crazy price,” he says.

Like many U.S. growers, both Bogaards and Pitstick say there is virtually no room left to cut fertilizer use without risking yields.

“There is no place to cut back. We are being as efficient as we can be,” Pitstick says.

Bogaards agrees, noting that nitrogen is not the place to skimp. “Maybe a year or so, you can cut back on the P and K a little bit, but you do not want to get caught in three or four years of that.”

He also remains reluctant to drop fungicides. “Fungicides really pay off,” he says. “In the past, we did not use them, but the last few years they really paid, and I would hate to not spray them.”

Uncertainty About The 2027 Crop Mix

While the 2026 crop is largely “business as usual,” both farmers told Flory that 2027 brings real uncertainty—especially regarding nitrogen supplies. Pitstick is concerned about how global demand could impact costs for U.S. producers.

“I am worried about the price of the nitrogen,” he says. “It may not be an issue in the United States from a supply standpoint, but the rest of the world… could export our product because of opportunity cost, and that drives the price up. It is a total wait and see.”

Flory underscored how global trade flows directly shape what American farmers pay, noting that some fertilizer shipments originally destined for the U.S. were recently rerouted.

“Some boats are diverted from the U.S. to other countries,” Flory says. “If you want your share, you have to beat the next guy in line with the price.”

If nitrogen prices soar while corn prices stagnate, Pitstick says his rotation could shift. “That might change how we do things in 2027. We may have to go to more soybeans,” he says.

Bogaards also expects to alter his corn–soybean mix, given the potential demand from domestic crush and renewable fuels.

“In the past, we were probably 60% to 65% corn,” he says. “We have been backing off of that. I still do a little bit of corn-on-corn, but I might try to go to a 50–50 rotation.”

Flory believes this shift could help rebalance supplies and improve price prospects. “If we can pull some acres away from corn and get this thing rebalanced, maybe that is our bridge to a better time,” Flory says. “Our bridge to a better time is more demand across the board and crops competing for acres — not another payment.”

Bogaards says the shifting economics are already evident. “A couple of years ago, people said soybeans are a drag on our financial statements. It looks like almost the opposite right now.”

Even so, Bogaards is cautious about making long-term decisions based on short-term signals. “I can change acres right now, but by next fall, it might be the worst decision. I think you have to go with your rotation and stick with it.”

Pitstick links his long-term outlook to fuel sector growth, noting that both corn and soybeans increasingly function as energy crops.

“Some of the most profitable years of my career were when we had high fuel prices because we were also a fuel crop,” he says. “I have some optimism that these high fuel prices will cause some demand and increase our crop prices.”

For now, both farmers say their immediate job is to manage through 2026 while keeping their options open. With high costs for fertilizer, fuel, and machinery, they see expanded demand as the only realistic path forward.

“It is just survival at this point,” Bogaards says. “We just have to make sure we can survive and keep plugging through it.”

You can listen to the complete discussion between Bogaards, Pitstick and Flory on AgriTalk at the link below:

Gulke: Why Price Discovery Still Matters

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 11:00:00 GMT

For decades, the methodology for writing this column has focused on addressing the basics of marketing. The goal has been to help create a commonsense framework for understanding market outlook technically and fundamentally. Yet, it’s clear there’s still a gap in the industry when it comes to the fundamental understanding of price discovery. Today, many rely on the use of other methods, such as crop insurance and guaranteed revenue programs, as a replacement for genuine risk management strategies.

Historical Context

An illustration of price discovery for soybeans serves as a prime example of the efficiency of our price discovery system, as seen in the past 25 years of market history. Around 2005, former President George W. Bush introduced a pseudo energy policy, launching the ethanol program based on the premise: “If you won’t buy our corn, we’ll burn it.”

This directly affected soybeans.

The incentive to plant corn led to fewer soybean acres, causing soybean prices to rise until enough acres were discovered to satisfy supply needs. This adjustment took seven years, factoring in challenges such as drought and Brazil’s entrance into the market.

Supply eventually exceeded demand, but it required soybeans to reach $17/bushel to drive expansion in South America. Afterward, the long uptrend broke, and prices receded to levels that would stimulate demand.

Notably, prices never returned to the previous $6 levels. Instead, a new price discovery process established a six-year trading range between $8 and $10, attempting to encourage demand.

On Aug. 31, 2020, the process began anew, influenced by supply constraints stemming from the droughts that occurred during 2011 and 2012.

During this new supply/demand realization, soybean prices tested $17 again, seeking to determine if this level was high enough to expand supply. The answer became clear.

At $17, nearly anyone could profitably plant soybeans, but that also took about seven months to confirm.

A long-term downtrend followed, amplified by an even steeper decline. On Aug. 31, 2024, a paradigm shift in global business practices was observed, preceding President Donald Trump’s election, tariff changes and the current conflict with Iran. Remarkably, soybeans rose by $2.60/bushel since Aug. 31, 2025. The media failed to anticipate this, focusing instead on minor issues.

(Chart Source: CME/Gulke Group)

Analysis of Soybean Price Trends

The price rally that’s occurred since Jan. 2, 2026, suggests a significant positive signal was in process if the long-term downtrend decline could be broken. Current price activity speaks positively, but sustaining a price above the downtrend is going to be essential as China-U.S. politics pose a roadblock and could thwart the positive price discovery in process.

Large speculator net positions at the bottom of the chart to the right (red for negative, blue for positive) correlate closely with price direction. The red 50-month moving average continued to be respected by price movements. Conventional wisdom has it that China — and other nations — had no economic incentive to buy U.S. soybeans.

Some analysts seem to have based their careers on this narrative, even as soybean prices reached highs that have not been seen since January 2024, which is when China initially began to avoid U.S. soybeans.

These arguments, however, overlooked one crucial point. For China, buying U.S. soybeans should be viewed as an investment, not an expense, with the added benefit that President Trump may reduce tariffs significantly — a demonstration of the “Art of the Deal.”

The current 10-million-metric-ton gap in U.S. soybean exports explains why President Trump is urging China to buy an additional 8 million metric tons this marketing year. If China complies, the U.S. could face a supply tightness which further supports the aforementioned paradigm shift.

Strategic Food Security

I have long written about the compelling argument for importing nations to maintain substantial grain reserves, rather than relying solely on the U.S. for their corn, soybeans and wheat. The concept of strategic food reserves is increasingly relevant amid today’s geopolitical and economic volatility.

Corn Market Timing and Speculative Activity

Some say market timing is impossible, but the chart above says otherwise. Combined with indicators that track cash — investment flows in and out of the market — and a keen understanding of fundamentals has proven effective in my career. I fear such analysis is no longer a science, but rather an art.

This shift is evident as risk management strategies focused on maximizing income have given way to increased production as a solution for improving income. The role of chief financial officer has shifted toward being a plant manager, as highlighted by media publications and land-grant university seminars that prioritize production, while I feel marketing receives too little attention.

Is the Corn Market Rolling Over?

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 16:27:26 GMT

For the week May corn was down 11 ¼ cents, December corn fell 9, May soybeans were 12 ¼ higher, November soybeans were up 3 ¾, May soybean meal surged $16.60 per short ton, May soybean oil fell 185 points, May soft red winter wheat fell 27 ¼, May hard red winter wheat lost 25, May hard red spring wheat plunged 35.

Corn futures scored a bearish lower weekly close for a second week and are now around 30 cents off the highs the market hit during the Iran war.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the corn market was higher in February but hit a high on March 9.

July corn rallied up to $4.87 ½ and December up to $4.98 ½ in tandem with a spike in crude oil to over $120 a barrel as the Iran war shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

However, since that time corn market has been correcting.

Gulke says, “Corn made the highs right at the peak of the Iranian war. Then we tried two different weeks to go higher and couldn’t do it.”

Corn Technicals Turn Bearish
July futures have fallen 34 cents and retraced a full 62% from the low Jan 15 to high March 9.

December corn futures during the same period have retraced 50% and are within 4 cents of the 62% retracement.

In both cases, the 50-day average has or is close to being violated.

Gulke more closely watches weekly charts and says an up trending market makes higher highs and higher lows and he gets concerned if in any week the market closes below the previous week’s low.

“It doesn’t have to have a major key reversal. But after going up for five, six, seven, eight weeks, and if that uptrend falters, the market better turn around and make new highs off of last week’s low and get this uptrend going.If not there’s something going on that we don’t know yet, but the managed money does and that happened last week,” he explains.

Corn Removes War Premium
According to Gulke the corn market also tested the breakout point from the late February when the Iran war started.

“We’ve gone back to that point now. So, the market discounted all the potential bullishness out of the war if that’s what we were doing, in fact, is worrying about the war from a trade standpoint. We’ve gone back now and we’ve wiped all that out,” he says.

Gulke says that tell him the corn market doesn’t care about the war anymore and is instead trading its own fundamentals.

That includes too much corn, and the market was reminded of that in the April WASDE with the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks figure.

He thinks there may be some concern about lost demand with global customers after the war in Iran.“Are we really going to get people to want to buy our grain when we’re not making any friends?”

Funds Exiting Long Corn Positions
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report on Friday showed speculative traders had exited a larger percentage of their long position in corn.

He says, “When you look at it, it’s quite a percentage and this report lags as it is as of last Tuesday.So, they probably dumped a lot more because the price dropped significantly.”

Corn Losses Ground to Soybeans
During the time that corn was going down, soybeans stayed stronger which Gulke says may have bought a few soybean acres.

He is already planting more soybeans this year at a ratio of two to one but says his profit potential just got even better with the difference between his net profit before expenses.

“That spread widened in favor of beans at about $50 an acre in my books. So, it didn’t mean that soybeans took off and went through the roof. It’s just that corn went down,” he explains.

So, for farmers that waited to buy fertilizer the decision to stick with corn hasn’t gotten any better and Gulke says they may plant soybeans.

Is the Corn Rally Over?
He says the corn market rallied and gave farmers a chance to lock in higher prices than last year and gain from $60 to $80 an acre more gross income to help pay for fertilizer.

That incentive is now gone according to Gulke and he thinks the high may be in the corn market at least for old crop.

“It sure looks like it. In fact, if old crop corn July does not turn around and reverse itself next week and close above this last week’s high, which is a pretty tall order, then the weekly technicals I watch will turn negative.”

So now the hope for a corn rally he says is tied to weather.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

2026 Acreage Outlook: Soybeans and Cotton Rise While Corn and Wheat Face Notable Declines

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:18:04 GMT

Iran Conflict Trumps USDA Reports as Money Flows into Food and Energy

"Prices are a function of supply and demand. Supply and demand does matter, but they are modified by the flow of money and that's certainly been true and evident in this Iran war situation," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX during a conversation on Markets Now with Michelle Rook. He says money has been flowing into the food and energy-based commodities on the expectation that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the movement of energy and fertilizer, there's a risk for higher prices. "Not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even food shortages," said Suderman. "In fact, there's quite a headline going across Wall Street today now expecting a global crisis of food in the months ahead. So money coming into those food-based commodities slowed down a little bit, ahead of today's reports, but now that today's reports are behind us, it didn't really give any reason to change that narrative. It continues to provide a tailwind in which we trade these fundamentals.

Bigger Acreage Impact From High Fertilizer Prices Might Come in 2027, Not 2026

Rising fertilizer prices ahead of planting aren’t unprecedented — and history suggests the biggest impact might not be immediate. Seth Meyer points back to Russian invasion of Ukraine as a clear example. Fertilizer prices spiked in late February 2022, sparking concerns farmers might shift away from corn. “Yet, at the end of the day, it wasn’t significantly noticeable that we saw a reduction in corn because of it.” In other words, even with a sudden cost shock, most planting decisions were already too far along to meaningfully change. Krista Swanson says the same dynamic might be at play this year. While higher input costs could affect some acres, not all farmers are equally exposed — especially those who already applied fertilizer or locked in purchases. But the bigger story might be what comes next. “As we look ahead … we’re not that far from when we’re getting shipments in for fall applications for next year’s crop,” she explains. While only some farmers might feel the impact in 2026, Swanson emphasizes the effects could be much broader in 2027. “This could be something that impacts all farmers … definitely thinking about how that positions decisions for next year.” Meyer agrees, noting fertilizer markets were already tight before the latest geopolitical disruptions, with prices for key inputs such as MAP and DAP remaining elevated. “If you’re trying to put fertilizer into position for the fall, you’re going to have to pay the prices you’re observing today,” he says. The takeaway is this: While 2026 acreage might not shift dramatically, sustained high fertilizer costs could cast a longer shadow, shaping planting decisions more significantly in 2027.

Listen to AgriTalk for Report Analysis and Market Reaction

Brian Grete with Commstock Investments joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to dig into the March 31 USDA reports. Click here to listen to the conversation. "We saw in 2025, what the March intentions are to the final acreage [estimates] could be a vastly different number," Grete told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. "That may be the case again this year. We will have to see. There isn't a whole lot of incentive out there to just go out and wildly plant. We see that in the principal crop acres, 310 million being the smallest since 2020 and down 1.2% from the 10-year average. It's a matter of the total acreage mix as we move forward."

NCGA's Krista Swanson: Significant Share of Corn Acreage Likely Set

When asked if the corn acreage estimate of 95.3 million was surprising, NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson replied no. She notes the estimate is down about 3% from last year, yet still comes in above USDA’s February projection of 94 million acres. That suggests farmers, at least at the time of the survey, were planning to plant more corn than initially expected. Swanson acknowledges it's still possible for farmers to shift away from corn as fertilizer and fuel costs rise, partly driven by geopolitical tensions. “Some acres could shift, but a lot of decisions are already made — and, in many cases, inputs are already purchased or even applied,” she says. “Once fertilizer is in the ground it becomes a sunk cost, and it makes switching away from corn much less likely."

USDA Survey Adds Timing Data to Capture Farmer Sentiment Amid Rising Fertilizer Costs

The timing of USDA's Prospective Plantings report matters more than usual this year. Market conditions were shifting in real time as geopolitical tensions with Iran escalated during the survey window. Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI at the University of Missouri, says the fact USDA-NASS shared a breakdown of when responses were submitted adds transparency that helps analysts better interpret the data, grounding farmer sentiment in the reality of rapidly changing input costs. Early survey responses might reflect very different expectations than those submitted later.

Wheat Acres Continue to Dwindle as Drought Stress Mounts

The latest Drought Monitor puts the proportion of US winter wheat area under drought conditions at a new high of 57% for 2026. That is significantly above 37% at the same time last year. USDA continues to pare back wheat acres in its latest prospective plantings report. The agency survey puts the all wheat planted area for 2026 at an estimated 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this would be the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

Planters are Rolling in Iowa and Illinois

Soybean Markets Surge as Iowa and Illinois are Expected to Plant Less Corn in 2026

According to USDA, planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states. Acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from last year are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. If realized, the agency says, the area of corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record. USDA also estimates soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Wisconsin. Soybean futures markets rose 17 to 19 cents midday following the release of the report, where USDA's survey showed fewer soybean acres than the trade expected, despite being higher than a year ago.

Matt Bennett: Bullish Soybeans and Wheat, Corn a Wash

On her Markets Now podcast, Michelle Rook chats with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net, to break down USDA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports and what the numbers mean to farmers. Bennett thinks corn acreage might drop in the June report due in part to the spike in fertilizer costs since the Iran war started. "Whenever it costs $1,000 or more an acre to put crop in the ground, there's no doubt we'll need to see a pretty sharp reaction before too awful long if we're going to switch many of those acres around," Bennett says. When it comes to soybeans, he says rotation and lower input costs both play a role. The biggest shock is the record low all wheat acreage at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Other spring wheat, at 9.42 million acres, was also down 570,000 acres and the lowest since 1971 due to disease and poor economics. "We've had very few opportunities to be able to step in and sell wheat at a profitable level," Bennett says. "It's just been problematic for a lot of growers to keep the same rotation they've had in the past. He was also surprised all cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, which is up 4% from last year. "Seeing cotton acres up, especially with the price action we've seen over the last year, is an absolute shock," he adds.

2025/26 Q2 Corn Demand Larger Than the Trade Expected

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: Corn and Soybean Supplies Surge Over 10% From 2025

USDA has also released its March Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers. At a glance: Corn stocks up 11% from March 2025 Soybean stocks up 10% All wheat stocks up 5% Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from March 1, 2025. An average of traders ahead of the report expected 9.10 billion bushels. Of the total stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.59 billion bushels, are down 2% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 4.28 billion bushels, compared with 3.93 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% from March 1, 2025. Traders pegged soybean stocks at 2.06 on average ahead of the USDA’s report. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.20 billion bushels, are up 16% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. The pre-report average of traders came in at 1.31 billion bushels. On-farm stocks are estimated at 298 million bushels, down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 8% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 377 million bushels, 12% above the same period a year earlier. Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2026 totaled 46.5 million bushels, up 21% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.2 million bushels, are up 40% from March 1, 2025. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.3 million bushels, down 4% from a year ago. From December 2025 to February 2026 disappearance totaled 14.9 million bushels, 17% below the same period a year earlier.

Markets React to Prospective Plantings Report

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher. As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher. Head over to Pro Farmer for reaction to USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage Intentions Total 180M

2026 Prospective Plantings: Corn and Cotton Top Trade Guesses as Wheat Slumps to Historic Lows

USDA's Prospective Plantings report is out. Here's a glance: Corn planted acreage down 3% from 2025 Soybean acreage up 4% All wheat acreage down 3% All cotton acreage Up 4% Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3%, or 3.45 million acres, from last year. Compared with 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states. That’s higher than the trade’s pre-report average estimate of 94.36 million acres. Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states. Heading into the report, trade analysts had an average estimate of 85.54 million acres. The all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Winter Wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% from last year Hard Red: 23.1 million acres Soft Red Winter: 5.79 million acres White Winter: 3.54 million acres Spring Wheat: 9.43 million acres, down 6% from 2025 Hard Red Spring: 8.78 million acres Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% from last year Trade analysts expected the all wheat number to be lower with an average estimate of 44.78 million acres. Cotton acreage is bouncing back just a little in 2026. USDA estimates the all cotton planted area for 2026 is 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year. An average of surveyed traders put the acreage number at 9.22 million for 2026. The March 31 estimate is also above USDA February Outlook estimate of 9.4 million acres.

Watch Live As NASS Releases Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Numbers

Watch live as the National Agricultural Statistics Service announces Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks numbers.

Time Will Tell How Acreage and Stocks Shake Out

Quarterly Stocks: Trade Eyes Massive Corn and Soy Inventory Build

USDA will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers today. The trade expects 9.1 billion bushels of corn, which is up nearly 1 billion bushels from last year but includes an increase of 775 million bushels on feed and residual. “I don't believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company. “Our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels.” Quarterly stocks on soybeans are estimated at 2.06 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last year, with wheat stocks at 1.3 billion, up just 60 million.

Mike North: Hoping for Optimism to Move Markets Higher

USDA's March Prospective Plantings Report tends to be "explosive" in terms of market reaction, according to Ever.Ag's Mike North.

RVO Crossroads: How EPA’s Biofuel Decision Could Reshape Grain Markets This Spring

Fri, 27 Feb 2026 21:41:51 GMT

At Commodity Classic this week, the biofuels debate moved from Washington talking points to farm-gate math. With EPA’s proposed Renewable Volume Obligations now sitting at the White House for review, the outcome is poised to ripple through soybean oil crush margins, renewable diesel run rates and, ultimately, how many acres farmers devote to corn and soybeans this spring.

During a live taping of U.S. Farm Report, analysts Arlan Suderman of StoneX, Chip Flory of AgriTalk and Naomi Blohm of Total Farm Marketing by Stewart-Peterson made it clear: this isn’t just about percentages on a policy sheet. It’s about whether renewable diesel plants jump from 60% to near full capacity, whether USDA’s 17-billion-pound soybean oil forecast proves tight, and whether growers need to “buy acres” before planters roll.

In a market perched at technical resistance and staring down seasonal headwinds, timing may matter as much as the final RVO number. A bold, immediate reallocation of small refinery exemptions could ignite demand and shift acreage battles overnight. A slower rollout, or even delayed clarity, could leave spring planting decisions hanging in the balance.

Five Scenarios and a Need for Certainty

“There’s plenty of talk, but we don’t know for sure,” Suderman says of the pending RVO announcement. “But we have some ideas on what it’s going to be.”

After years of small refinery exemptions (SREs) hanging over the market, EPA has now cleared exemptions dating back to 2016. That removes what Suderman described as a lingering weight on the industry. But the key question now is reallocation.

“There’s about five different scenarios that could still come out of this,” he explains. “So there is a lot of variability.”

The most widely discussed outcome would reallocate 50% of exempted volumes back to larger refiners. But Suderman noted that number could reach 75%, and some industry participants still hope for 100%.

“What we expect to happen is 50%, possibly up to 75% of the small refinery exemptions would be put back in for larger refineries,” he says. “Now what we don’t know is over how many years that’ll be. Will it be over one year, two years or four years? So that makes a big difference.”

Another unresolved issue is the RIN credit for imported feedstocks.

“What we don’t know is what will they do with the 50% RIN credit for imported feedstock,” Suderman says. “There’s a lot of pressure to move that back up to 100%. It could be something in between. It could be one year it’s one thing, the other year it’s another.”

Despite the uncertainty, Suderman sees most scenarios as constructive.

“Regardless, we see most all the possible scenarios here as being positive,” he says. “The biggest thing is not what the numbers say, but just having certainty.”

And once that certainty arrives, the production response could follow quickly.

“It’s going to take 45 to 60 days, we feel like, to really get the industry going,” he says. However, with RIN values rallying, “yesterday we got RINs up high enough that we can start profitably making renewable diesel. So we may ramp it up a little bit quicker.”

Suderman expects a finalized decision from EPA by the end of March , which is a timeline even EPA has stated.

Even 50% Is a Win?

Flory has been in direct conversations with biofuel leaders at Commodity Classic, including representatives from the Renewable Fuels Association and Clean Fuels Alliance America.

“The buzz is that it’s going to be half,” Flory says. “Sometimes the buzz isn’t right… Could be up to 75%. I think there’s still hope that it is going to 100%.”

But even at 50%, he sees progress.

“In my mind, with the way the trend was going, even at 50% reallocation, I’m going to call it a win for the industry,” Flory says.

He emphasizes that the RVO ruling outweighs other ethanol policy wins.

“The RVO decision, I think, is so important,” he says. “It’s more important in my mind than E-15 getting it done.”

The reason is immediate demand potential. Biomass-based diesel refiners have been operating at sharply reduced rates.

“They were running at what, Arlan, 60% capacity?” Flory asked during the discussion. “If we all of a sudden have to ramp this back up to 90%, 95%,” Flory continues, “we’re going to use all 17 billion pounds of bean oil in the year ahead that USDA says we’re going to.”

Markets Sitting at Resistance

Blohm believes the market has already begun factoring in future biofuel demand, but she questions how aggressively policymakers will move.

“If we came out with this information and they said it’s going to be full bore, sooner than later, the market still could respond with higher values,” she says

However, she also pointed to inflation sensitivities.

“There’s also the balance of governments wanting to not have food prices go too high too quickly,” Blohm says. “Especially with this administration still trying to bring beef prices down. So I don’t know that they’re going to immediately give us all of this great news that we’re wanting.”

Instead, she expects a more gradual rollout.

“I’m on the slow roll carryout, which would be bringing that demand up, but slowly over time,” she adds.

Technically, she sees the grain complex at a critical tipping point.

“We’re right at a perch for market prices right now,” Blohm says. “Corn, beans, wheat — all near some short-term major resistance levels where we’re waiting for fresh, big new news.”

If that news comes, either from biofuels or South American weather, the move could be sharp.

“If we can get some new bullish news, either bad weather on the safrinha crop, great news regarding the biofuels, we have reasons for this marketplace to explode higher,” she says. “If we do not get good news soon, seasonals could kick in, when prices often soften into late March. The timing of this is critical. Timing is critical.”

Acreage Wild Cards: RVOs and China

The RVO decision intersects directly with planting intentions and potentially with U.S.-China trade talks expected in April. Suderman points to both as pivotal acreage drivers.

“Two big critical factors that will impact planting intentions are the RVO and trade deal with China,” he says.

If both land favorably, soybeans may need to compete for ground.

“If both of those come in favorable, we could see soybeans having to buy acres,” Suderman says.

But timing complicates the picture. USDA surveys for the March Prospective Plantings report close around mid-March.

“Most of the surveys come in front-loaded,” Suderman noted. If policy clarity arrives after surveys are returned, “we’ll be waiting until the June survey to really feel like we have a handle on the number of planted acres.”

Blohm questioned whether corn acreage will ultimately exceed early USDA projections.

“My thought would be that we’re going to plant less corn than last year,” she said. “But is it going to be 94, 95 or 96? That’s the question.”

Even at those levels, balance sheets remain comfortable without stronger demand.

“With 94, 95, 96 million acres, including trendline yield, as good as demand is, you’re going to have carryout for corn near 1.8, 1.9 or 2 billion bushels, unless we can get some of this renewable stuff happening fast,” says Blohm.

How Much Demand Is Enough?

Flory acknowledged that the corn market has already built substantial usage.

“We’re already looking at $16.4 billion in total demand. That’s a huge number,” he says.

To materially shift prices, though, he says additional growth is needed.

“Looking forward, what does it take? We need to see that shift in demand,” Flory says. “Add another 300 million bushel, 400 million bushels of demand. We can do that if we can get some of these biofuel priorities.”

Are Grains the Bargain Buy?

Beyond domestic policy, outside markets could amplify moves.

“If things flare up with Iran, that’s going to be a game changer for crude oil,” Blohm says. “Which would pull corn prices higher.”

She’s also monitoring palm oil production in Malaysia.

“They’re having too much rain right now, and that’s affecting production,” she says. “If they’ve got lower production, then maybe we see a kick up for soybean oil demand here.”

Suderman added a macro lens, noting that grains and oilseeds have shown strong historical correlation with inflation measures.

“When you look at what the funds want to own if we see a return of inflation pressures, the highest correlation over the last 10 years has been the grain and oilseeds to the CPI, followed by energy,” says Suderman.

A Decision Landing at Planting

The EPA’s RVO decision is expected within weeks — right as planters begin to roll.

If policymakers deliver aggressive reallocation and clarity, renewable diesel plants could ramp from 60% toward full capacity. Soybean oil demand would tighten. Soybeans could push to buy acres.

If the announcement disappoints, or even arrives too late, seasonal pressure could dominate the spring trade.

As Suderman put it, the issue isn’t just the final percentage.

“The biggest thing is not what the numbers say,” he says. “It’s having certainty.”

For farmers making planting and marketing decisions in real time, that certainty can’t come soon enough.

Are You Ready for The China Effect?

Sat, 14 Feb 2026 17:17:34 GMT

For the week March corn was 1 ½ cents higher, December corn gained 6 ¾, March soybeans climbed 17 ¾, November soybeans were up 19 ½, March soybean meal was $5.60 higher, March bean oil tacked on 175 points, March soft red winter wheat ended 19 better, March hard red winter wheat was 11 ¼ higher and March hard red spring wheat was up 2.

Soybeans were 18 to 19 cents higher for the week and have gained nearly 70-cents in the past two weeks riding the China wave. The first wave came last week from a surprise post by President Trump that China had agreed to buy another 8 million metric tons (MMT) of old crop soybeans.The second wave came after a story in the South China Morning Post said that the U.S. and China would possibly extend the trade truce for another year when the leaders of the two countries met in Beijing in April.

The China Effect
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says many are skeptical, based on past experience, that China will honor the deal to buy the additional soybeans for this marketing year. “You and I have talked about the fact that the Phase One was based on a dollar amount and they had an escape clause that said if the price is right and they need it, China will buy our soybeans.This time it’s actual bushels.I think Trump learned his lesson.”

Conventional wisdom would tell you China has no economical reason to buy U.S. soybeans in the gut slot of Brazil’s record soybean harvest and with prices $1.00 below the U.S. However, Gulke says the purchases are all political and China will buy this time regardless of price. “So, we have that 12 MMT that most people thought they weren’t going to do. Well, they did it. And they’ve had it covered, probably started covering it in October when we had the $1.40 rally. Then it peaked and went down,” he explains.

Gulke contends that after soybean prices dropped and the rhetoric of how bad things are in agriculture that’s when President Trump asked China to buy 8 MMT more. “And this is the art of the deal, I guess. And for those of us that negotiate land and prices for goods, we know what he’s talking about and what he’s doing,” he adds.

President Trump needs to buy votes with farmers and so he brokered a deal with Chinese President Xi.“I don’t care how much more our soybeans cost verses what Brazil is going to sell them to you. You’ll probably get a $10 billion reduction in the tariffs for your country. To me, this is an investment. It’s kind of like hedging grain.”

Gulke says China is making an investment of 8 million metric tons of soybeans which may have a value of $300 million. “That’s like spitting in the wind compared to what they’re going to gain from what Trump is going to do for them as a reciprocal thing. And that word reciprocal, we need to keep that in our heads. And you don’t fight the guy that’s got the checkbook.”

Soybean prices have quickly responded because if you do the math, another 300 million bu. of soybeans sales to China will quickly take the 350 million bu. ending stocks on soybeans down to pipeline supplies.“You’ve got a problem. You don’t have enough beans if they buy 8 million metric tons in this season. And this season means this marketing year.”

Gulke says if that happens and farmers don’t plant 3 million more acres of soybeans, the U.S. will run out of supply.“So, it’s not a surprise to me that we’ve seen soybeans rally this week like they have,” he adds.

Will Soybeans Retest the November Highs?
So how far will the rally in soybeans extend to price in this demand shock? Will prices retest the highs set back on Nov. 18 at $11.72 ½? Gulke says it is entirely possible, “If you take 8 million metric tons off the balance sheet, like you said, that puts us down at pipeline supplies.”

Technically he says the charts look bullish, even with the slight pullback on Friday.“Believe it or not, we had a gap higher today in the March futures of a quarter of a cent. We pulled back and couldn’t fill it, came close. But it closed up near the highs of the day.”

Gulke says March soybeans put in a high on Nov. 18 at $11.72 ½ after rallying $1.40 on news that China would be buying 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans.The market peaked that day after seeing a flash sale to China of 792,000 MT of soybeans.“That’s because the market was looking ahead already from October saying, well, if they buy X amount, what would that mean price wise? And it, it achieved that price. Then it was over and then everybody said, well, that’s it. They’re not going to buy any more and they may not even buy that.”

What Do the Charts Say?
During that time soybeans were working on a head and shoulders pattern on the charts and fulfilled it on Nov. 18 according to Gulke. “We had a right shoulder and left shoulder. It was that right shoulder, which says, all right, the market predicted a price back in the $11.72 area. It then turned around and went down a $1.40.”

The soybean market is now starting to retrace the move. So, will it retest that high? Gulke says, “Now the key is not so much the high that we made, but the secondary high, the right shoulder, so to speak, can you exceed that? Because that was the real test of what was going on. And I think the market will look at that and say, what’s it going to take to attract bean acres away from corn?We can afford to lose corn acres and if it’s only 3 .8 million, you’re probably going to run out. So, we need to do something rather quickly.” Otherwise, he says by the end of March when the USDA Planting Intensions Report is released it could say $12 didn’t make a difference to the farmer.“ The market’s going to try to soybean buy acres, especially since Trump and Xi are going to meet in April,” he explains.

Watching for Flash Sales
Gulke says China goes on holiday the next week or so, but he will be watching for flash sales to see if China is really going to buy this additional 8 MMT of soybeans the President touted. “If you’re going to meet and you’re going to put on your best face to Trump then you’re going to buy some beans going into that meeting and you may even honor the 25 MMT for 2027 and 2028. I doubt they are going to renege on that.”

Gulke says if you plug those numbers the soybean market gets pretty exciting.

Funds Adding to Long Position
Managed money has also increased their net long position over the past two weeks.Friday’s CFTC Managed Money Futures Only table shows that as of last Tuesday the funds are long in soybeans 115,896 contracts which is up a whopping 86,743 contracts from last week.Gulke speculates the funds likely added more at the end of this week as open interest has been rising sharply in the soybean market which is an indication of new money.

Gulke thinks funds could buy more soybeans.“They’ve got a way to go yet.If you look at the last seven days of volume, it’s been maybe double or triple what it was any time in the previous three months in any given day. Somebody is buying, obviously, we saw that today, the large specs are buying. And they’re buying our panic sales that happened probably when the market fell $1.40 and people missed the top,” he explains.

Marketing Advice
Gulke has heard plenty of criticism by farmers about President Trump and the woes in farm country but he says farmers need to be prepared. “Sometimes you’ve got to be a little bit patient. The worst thing you can do is get on the wrong side of the market and say I’m going to sell out on the first rally again. ”However, there are some producers that are short or bought puts and are watching the market make new highs for the move the last two weeks.

Farmers have been selling soybeans on the rally. Gulke advises that if farmers can make money at these levels, it warrants a sale.However, he says farmers need to be in control of their inventory and see how this plays out.He says President Trump likes “the art of the deal” which results in a negotiation process where he and the other party both leave happy and that they gained something.“That’s what Trump is good at. It’s taken us a long time to figure this out. So. we’ll watch and see what happens.”

Gulke thinks there’s also a good chance down the road that China buys corn because Trump said he also wanted them to like them to consider buying other agricultural products.That could finally be the catalyst to get corn ending stocks under 2.0 billion bu. and spark a much needed rally in the market.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Is Something Brewing in the Corn Market?

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 16:48:55 GMT

The grain markets all ended higher last week with a new high close for the move in corn. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says fundamentally many in the trade will try to attribute the rally to the cold weather and how it has slowed grain movement from truck to barge. However, he says, the corn market has technically looked good for a while.

Coincidentally this comes just two weeks after the shock and awe in the corn market from the January WASDE and final crop production report, where USDA increased production to a record 17 billion bushels with an unexpected 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres.

Is Something Going on in the Corn Market?

After the 25 cent drop in corn prices Gulke says it uncovered some insatiable demand as end users saw those price levels as a bargain. USDA has continued to report a string of large flash export sales. For the week ending Jan. 16, export sales were nearly 158 million bushels. That was a marketing year high, and a level not achieved since 2021.

The U.S. corn export market has an advantage the first quarter of a new year, according to Gulke. Generally sales are steady to higher but rarely run at this blistering pace.

“If the export sales continue in corn, you may have to raise the export projection from USDA even higher.”

In fact, he predicts USDA’s record export projection of 3.2 billion bushels could be 75 million bushels too low.

Is China Buying Corn?

Gulke also thinks it’s possible the flash sales of corn to unknown destinations could be China because corn export sales normally go to Mexico and there are hardly any export customers afraid to report they are buying U.S. corn.

“We’ve got to watch China. They’ve been bragging about how good the crop is but maybe their crop isn’t as good as they thought,” he explains.

Can Corn Recover to Pre-WASDE Levels?

Corn lost over 25 cents after the report and broke out of the bottom side of the sideways trading range it had been stuck in for months. Gulke says while it’s not impossible for corn to rally back to those levels the odds don’t favor it.

“Why would corn ever go up there knowing full well there’s tons of grain that’s going to be sold off the farm. I guess we proved that in the report with on-farm stocks. What shouldn’t happen is if this market is that bad, you shouldn’t get a second chance,” he explains.

He says the market may retrace 50% of that price drop as it’s already bounced nearly 15 cents off the lows, but he’s not confident in a further recovery without a major catalyst.

Corn Is In Price Discovery Process

Gulke says the corn market is just starting its price discovery process for the 2026 crop, which is not so much about what you know.

“It’s what you don’t know that is going to come and surprise us like the WASDE did on the downside, which has helped get corn prices low enough to where we are going to stay competitive until Brazil finally harvests their big crop a few months down the road,” he says.

The corn market is also entering a critical time where farmers who did not already apply fertilizer in the fall are making 2026 planting decisions. Currently, Gulke says corn acreage is expected to drop three to four million acres. Their early client acreage survey results show little, if any, increase in corn acres and a few farmers have switched to soybeans because of the lower input costs.

“If you like your 50-50 rotation it’ll stay that way,” he says.

If that is the case it will be difficult to drop carryout much under 2.2 billion bushels, which would keep corn stuck in its current trading range.

This is also the time of year, according to Gulke, when you expect to see some weather premium being added to the markets.

“I don’t think there’s any weather premium in corn right now. If there is, it’s very little,” he adds.

He says it’s also been a few years since the U.S. has had a wet spring or any planting delays to cause a weather rally, but there are still many unknowns about the weather for the 2026 growing season.

February Crop Insurance Price Period

The corn market is also entering February when crop insurance guarantees are established for spring crops.

“There are new high closes I think in wheat for the year, corn and in beans as well. We’re doing some things in the month of January that are very interesting. We’ll see if we can continue that into February,” he says.

Currently corn prices are close to last spring’s levels. However, with the improved crop insurance premium subsidies in the One Big Beautiful Bill, Gulke says farmers could still see better guarantees than in 2025.

“A lot of farmers are telling me they can buy insurance with up to 95% coverage using some of the Farmer Bridge Assistance payments they’re receiving,” he explains. The crop insurance price guarantee for corn will further affect farmers’ decisions on whether they want to plant more corn or not. He says unfortunately instead of farmers taking their cue from the market, they are getting signals from government policy and programs.

For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Companies Team Up To Accelerate Ag Innovation With Artificial Intelligence

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 20:19:57 GMT

SAP SE and Syngenta have announced a multi-year strategic technology partnership designed to bring AI-driven innovation directly to the agricultural sector. For farmers, this means a more modern, data-driven approach to the products and services they rely on daily, from manufacturing and supply chain management to field-level support.

As farmers navigate the complexities of climate variability and global market uncertainty, the partnership aims to bolster the tools available to meet the challenge of feeding a projected 10 billion people by 2050, Syngenta reports. By integrating AI across Syngenta’s operations, the collaboration is positioned to unlock faster innovation and stronger operational resilience that scales to meet the needs of agricultural producers.

“AI is the catalyst for agricultural transformation and has quickly become a core competitive edge for Syngenta,” said Feroz Sheikh, chief information and digital officer, Syngenta Group, in a prepared statement. “Our partnership with SAP is transforming how we run the enterprise, modernizing core operations and unlocking new ways to work — a testament to our commitment to becoming an agriculture company with AI at its core.”

“Syngenta’s transformation sets a benchmark for digital innovation in agriculture,” said Philipp Herzig, chief technology officer at SAP SE, in a statement. “Together, we’re demonstrating how cloud and AI technologies can drive sustainable growth and efficiency in one of the world’s most critical industries. This partnership will help Syngenta future-proof its operations to feed the world responsibly.”

The transformation begins with SAP Cloud ERP Private solutions, modernizing Syngenta’s value chain to ensure the company remains agile and responsive to market shifts. For U.S. farmers, this translates to a more reliable partner capable of weathering volatility and delivering consistent results, Syngenta says.

Through the SAP Business Data Cloud, Syngenta is establishing a unified and secure data foundation essential for real-time decision-making. Combined with SAP Business AI and tools like the Joule Copilot , the company intends to drive operational efficiency and accelerate the development of new technologies. Importantly, this initiative focuses on delivering superior products and services while ensuring farmers maintain control and privacy over their proprietary information.

Gulke: What Did We Learn From the USDA Reports?

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 17:00:05 GMT

For the week March corn lost 21 cents, March soybeans fell 4 ¾, March soybean meal plunged $13.70, March soybean oil soared 292 points, March soft red winter wheat gained ¾, March hard red winter wheat lost 3 and March hard red spring wheat fell 2.

Grain markets were mostly lower for the week with corn taking the brunt of the selling pressure in reaction to USDA’s bearish January reports. The agency raised corn yield by .5 bu. per acre to 186.5 bu. and raised harvested acres by 1.3 million, which led to a record 17 billion-bu. crop. This was a disappointment and even a shock for many farmers who were convinced the yield would be cut.

What Did We Learn From The USDA Report?
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the report provided some valuable lessons about marketing. “You just can’t look in your backyard and think, what’s going on there is the same everywhere.We had clients in Nebraska that would have bet the farm that the yield was going to be closer to 181 or 182 rather than 186 bu.If they bet the farm they lost,” he says.

Where Did the 1.3 Million Harvested Corn Acres Come From?
Gulke says USDA added insult to injury by raising harvested acres another 1.3 million to a final 91.3 million acre. The Gulke Group does an acreage survey every spring and he says in 2025 it showed over 100 million acres of corn would be planted by farmers.“And I said, I can’t print that, you know, I’ll be the laughingstock of the media. Well, we finally printed 98.2 million and people thought we were nuts. Well, it took this long to get there.”So based on their survey work he was not surprised with USDA’s print because there was a massive move to corn.“I don’t care if you were a 250-acre farmer or a 10,000-acre farmer, they were all doing that.”

He says this was the first time in his career he’s seen that big of a trend shift, but it was forced by the crop insurance guarantee. “If you had full coverage on corn, you probably wouldn’t lose much so that has an influence. So, suddenly, we’re not taking our cues from the marketplace, we’re being manipulated by the media or by the president himself, perhaps. ”However, he says for soybeans insured at 85% of the price it takes a long time for the insurance to kick in.So, he thinks it will be hard to get acres to shift out of corn again in 2026.

Gulke says they thought USDA could raise harvested acres in the final production report based on the methodology and it made sense to him with an eight million acre increase in planted acres over last year. He explains, “There are always unharvested acres due to wind, hail and the like and the rest of it is cut for silage for use in dairies and other livestock operations.” Plus, the amount of corn cut for silage didn’t change much from last year so that extra corn was harvested as grain.

Farmers Upset with the USDA Report
Gulke heard from many clients after the report that were upset with USDA. “I mean, there were a lot of farmers that thought there was scheming going on by USDA before the report, but there’s a lot more suspecting it now. They say it proves all USDA wants is cheap food.”

While farmers can argue the credibility of USDA’s data and the models they use, he stresses that the agency doesn’t manufacture the numbers. He recommends producers really read the WASDE report. “You can go through the tables, and it shows what states had what, but then you get to the protocol. In other words, here they write about how they made their decisions and how the data came about.” He says only then can you argue the rationale behind it.

Report Indicates Farmers Storing More Grain
According to Gulke many farmers were surprised by the report because they were long in the market, as more stored grain this fall on the farm to for a rally. “You know, if the crop really wasn’t there, there was an awful lot of it stored on farms. There was 15% more grain stored on farm than last year.”Plus, Gulke also questioned if the corn supply was so tight why wasn’t his basis narrower? “ Prior to that report, my basis in northern Illinois was worse than when I harvested the grain.”

Gulke says he offered various marketing strategies this fall. “We talked about whether or not to store grain, or to sell it and buy a call.”He says for farmers that paid 30 to 40 cents to commercially store corn and wait for a rally, that corn is worth the same or less now than it was when it was harvested. According to Gulke, a loss of 25 cents on corn equals $50 an acre.So, for a farmer that was storing 2 million bu. that’s $500,000 of lost income.“It’s a lesson to be learned. I’ve seen it before. It’s just too bad that it didn’t go the way that everybody wanted to. Now we’ve got a problem,” he adds.

So, what should farmers learn from the report? Gulke says, “That you really have to think out of the box a little bit when it comes to your marketing or be prepared for a shock and there are marketing tools to help protect against that loss.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Corn Futures Drop Following Surprise Yield Increase in January USDA Report

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:04:28 GMT

The January USDA reports are the biggest of the season with final crop production for the previous year, world supply and demand estimates, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings for the new season. Average trade guesses ahead of Monday indicated only minor adjustments to the annual reports that are historically a huge market mover.

This year, all eyes were on final yields and production, specifically corn, and USDA provided several bearish surprises.

Corn Crop Still Big

USDA didn’t back off its big corn crop forecast, putting its final 2025 production at 17 billion bushels. The agency raised its final yield estimates from November to 186.5 bu. per acre. ( Ahead of the report , the trade was expecting a 2 bu. cut to 184 bu. per acre.) The gains also include raising acreage 4.5 million above the June survey, which analysts say is unprecedented. The final harvest area is now estimated at 91.25 million acres.

In January 2026, USDA released record corn yield and production numbers.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

The increase in production also lifted U.S. ending stocks to 2.227 billion bushels. That’s up from 2.029 in December 2025 and well above traded estimates. Corn futures markets sank double digits immediately following the release.

“That’s just a massive crop, 186.5 for yield, says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net. “I take issue with the higher corn yield considering the heavy disease pressure in parts of the Corn Belt.
A lot of people, of course, with recency bias and all the issues felt like [USDA] could take this yield down a fair amount. I would say it was definitely a shock for most people.”

USDA raised total corn usage to a record 16.4 billion bushels.

“Exports have been nothing short of incredible so far. As far as sales are concerned, we’ve actually had good shipments, but USDA left exports at 3.2, and then actually took up feed and residual usage,” Bennett adds.

Soybean Numbers Remain Steady

On the soybean side of the aisle, USDA left yields basically unchanged from the November report at an estimated 53 bu. per acre. However it did raise overall production to 4.262 billion bushels.

USDA left soybean yields basically unchanged from the November report but did raise overall production.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Ahead of the report , the average trade guess lowered yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu. per acre. Jerry Gulke thought President Trump’s goal of keeping food prices low and the fact USDA is providing Farmer Bridge Assistance might dictate a bearish slant.

Ending stocks are beginning the new year at 350 million bushels. That’s higher than December’s estimates based on smaller expected exports. The increase in production and lack of exports drove futures lower following the report.

“Essentially there were minor changes [for soybeans] other than exports, which went down 60 million bushels,” Bennett explains. “You’ve got to assume it’s because USDA took that Brazil crop up to 178. It’s something I think they lagged in doing. However, a 350 million bushels soybean carryout is still tight and with exports sales running 30% behind last year, it may be a gift for now.”

Winter Wheat Seedings Down

Farmers found a reason to plant more winter wheat than previously expected at 32.99 million acres. That’s well below last year’s crop planted on 33.15 million acres but larger than the trade had anticipated. Hard red winter wheat was nearly steady with last year at 23.50 million acres. Soft red winter wheat also near a year ago at 6.14 million acres while white winter wheat plantings fell to 3.36 million acres.

Click here to hear how Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, breaks down the price action following the report.

Grain Markets Reverse the Reversal

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 21:30:56 GMT

Enjoy the benefits of Blue Line Futures

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Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500Performance DisclaimerHypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.Research DisclaimerAll information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.Seasonal DisclaimerThis message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Navigate the New Global Economic Reset Using December-Only Corn Futures

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 13:00:00 GMT

A macro (big picture) outlook on commodities has proven beneficial for me to keep my year-ahead outlook in perspective using the futures markets as a precursor.

The two years ago, I focused on “the new price reality”. Last year, I felt we were in the throes of a new paradigm shift in global agriculture trade. Nothing has changed my macro view — it is the mechanism by which it is happening.We are in unchartered waters last seen 45 years ago in the Reagan Administration and the fall of communism.

At the time of writing (ahead of the Jan 12 WASDE report), examining a December-only corn futures price chart would provide some insights looking ahead. I have used it in the past in part to keep reality versus wishful thinking in check. I trust it will be useful in our current new paradigm of tariffs and economic and political resets.

(CME Group)

December-Only Benefits

The December-only corn chart focuses solely on new-crop corn futures. When a current December contract goes off the board, next year’s December becomes the focus.

The chart shows the large speculator net position over time: blue being net positive and red being net negative. It reflects only the lead futures contract (March) — not December but no less important. The chart does not show an indicator I have used since first writing this column. It further distinguishes Gulke Group Consulting from the rest of the pack and helps keep emotions intact.

Three Market Phases

Price moves in basically three directions, up, down and sideways. After the rally from 2010 to 2012 to $8.00, the high price curbed demand and expanded production as Econ 101 would dictate.

Anyone can grow $8 corn. Price discovery dictates we won’t run out of a commodity. In the case of 2009 to 2012, price rationing of demand along with supply increasing resulted.

The oversupply reduced demand and resulted in a low price, sideways trading pattern where additional demand was discovered and/or production curbed over time. After seven years of base building (building demand), prices rallied during January to May 2012 to $7.50/bu. — sending a signal to producers via December 2012 futures to plant corn.

Last year’s incentive ended on February 21. This year the incentive isn’t there — yet.

The new paradigm shifts I’ve seen coming in the past 18 months is becoming more obvious but is yet to play out. Has this administration reset global ag economics such that the U.S. gets a bigger piece of global demand regardless of price? Or will the new economics play a role in finally leveling the playing field and thus competition?

The best result would be if a rising tide (U.S.) lifts all global economics consumption. Certainly, the action with Venezuela represents such potential and sends a signal old relationships are a thing of the past.

After the market digests and discounts the January WASDE report, the February USDA Annual Outlook in late-February will guide. Last year, a report out of the Office of Management and Budget, used as a guideline for USDA on February 21 put the top in grain and oilseed prices until well into harvest.

Until all that information is out, the data driven markets will use the baseline approach generated by USDA last month for marketing year 2026/25.

2026 Influencers

A push to increase competition in seed, fertilizer and chemicals is evolving and much needed. It will be an influencer into Q2 2026. Energy, as viewed by heating oil futures (diesel fuel), is down 40¢/gal since November. Natural gas is down 30% as well. Both influence input prices.
Bigger is better only if you get better before getting bigger. The profit discrepancies between the top 10% to 15% of producers and the bottom 25% is huge. The inefficient producer/marketer will not survive.
Price volatility will continue requiring astuteness on a weekly and even daily basis. The December chart shows resistance and support over time and what happens when a breakout occurs. Price is now in a sideways, demand-building phase.
Profit opportunities abound as any 10- to 20-year commodity price chart will show. The principles of cash flow and profitability haven’t changed. The choice of whether we chose to be a production CEO (bigger yields, costs be damned) or a CFO putting sights on the only green that is important is the profit left at the end of the year.

Money isn’t the only thing that measures success in life, but it is the only way we keep score in the global world in which we compete.

Grains Mount an Impressive Rally

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 21:49:34 GMT

Enjoy the benefits of Blue Line Futures

Open an account with Blue Line Futures and you will gain access to our daily commodity commentary, free desktop/mobile trading platforms, 24-hour trade desk, and more!

OPEN AN ACCOUNT

Futures trading involves a substantial risk of loss and may not be suitable for all investors. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. Trading advice is based on information taken from trade and statistical services and other sources Blue Line Futures, LLC believes are reliable. We do not guarantee that such information is accurate or complete and it should not be relied upon as such. Trading advice reflects our good faith judgment at a specific time and is subject to change without notice. There is no guarantee that the advice we give will result in profitable trades. All trading decisions will be made by the account holder. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.

Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Grains Bounce Back from Friday's Weakness Ft. Oliver Sloup

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 17:06:38 GMT

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Is There Room for Optimism in the Commodity Markets?

Sat, 03 Jan 2026 17:26:28 GMT

“It’s easier to be skeptical.” Is that true? Is it easier to be skeptical of usage estimates and trade agreements, or is it just the more popular thing to do? It’s important to question USDA’s estimates, but it’s also important to question consensus. And if consensus in the current market is skepticism, it might make sense to add optimism to your outlook.

No. 1 on the hit list for market skeptics is USDA’s estimate of 6.1 billion bushels of corn in the feed and residual category. The residual component of that category is exceptionally difficult to predict. It’s got more to do with supply than it does with any actual use. Big total supplies means bigger residual use. Small total supplies means smaller residual use.

Total corn supplies in December’s S&D were a record 16.75 billion bushels. Record total supplies should equal record residual use. Combine that with a bigger fourth-quarter 2025 hog slaughter pace, and still-heavy carcass weights on cattle and hogs, and feed and residual use should be a record.

Many analysts expect USDA to eventually trim 250 million bushels from feed and residual corn use. That might happen, but it will be driven by a much lower total supply. If supplies remain at 16.75 billion bushels or more, I’m optimistic feed and residual use can hold at 6.1 billion bushels.

The bottom line is corn’s stocks-to-use ratio is not likely to change much from 12.5%. That’s not a bullish stocks-to-use ratio, but it doesn’t suggest the need for lower prices to build demand.

Long-Term Game Changer

The trade agreement with China is clearly the No. 2 item on skeptics’ list. I don’t know if China will buy 12 MMT of U.S. beans in the 2025-26 marketing year, but I do know that’s only half of what they’d normally buy. I’m optimistic they will get that done.

I’m also optimistic China will find a way to purchase 25 MMT in each of the next three years. I see China’s bean buys as grease on the skids of heavier issues between the U.S. and China. Before the agreement, my longer term outlook included greatly reduced exports to China over the next three years as China invested in Brazil. They will invest more in

Brazil and, after a three-year pause, Brazil’s share of the Chinese bean market will increase again.

But there is a three-year window of opportunity. New markets in Asia, Africa, Europe and Central America are possible. Increased domestic consumption of soybean oil in biofuels and more meal consumption and exports would also be demand-positive shifts.

I’ll admit the clock is ticking on my optimism. Without market development outside of China, I’ll be running with the skeptics in three years.

Farmers Face Budget Squeeze And Balance Sheet Challenges—Echoes Of A Decade Ago

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:12:38 GMT

If heading into 2026 feels a little like déjà vu, you’re picking up the same vibes Chris Barron, president and CEO of Iowa-based Ag View Solutions, is experiencing. He believes the next couple of years will echo the last big downturn farmers weathered a decade ago.

“It’s kind of scary that 2025, ’26 and ’27 look essentially like a repeat of 2015, ’16 and ’17,” Barron says. “If you remember that time frame and made it through, buckle down because I think we’re going there again.”

He says one of the clearest signals farmers are about to experience a repeat of a decade ago is based on the 2026 cost-of-production data from Ag View Solutions’ clients, who are based in 23 U.S. states and three Canadian provinces:

Soybeans: About $11.87 per bushel based on a 65-bu. average yield
Corn: About $4.69 per bushel (before basis) on a 223-bu. average, with many growers needing at least $4.85.

Some growers raising non-GMO seed beans or getting premium contracts can still make soybeans compete. But for many farms, soybeans are the weak link in the current economic cycle.

Right now, Ag View Solutions clients are expected to plant roughly 62% of their acres to corn and 38% to soybeans for 2026 — essentially the same as 2025. Barron says he doesn’t expect many acres to shift away from this mix to more soybeans “unless something really changes.”

Given current price relationships and crop insurance guarantees, Ag View Solutions data shows about a $50-per-acre advantage to corn over soybeans for the year ahead. Even if the dollars trend lower, he says corn often pencils out better because of gross revenue and risk management tools.

More Cost Pressures Heading Into 2026

It’s no secret production costs are increasing heading into the next season. Some of the key factors include:

Overhead costs (what Barron calls ‘”return to management”) for family and employee expenses, including phones, fuel and business-paid personal expenses, are up nearly 5%. After the past year or two of what Barron describes as hard belt-tightening, he says deferred spending is “snapping back” at higher levels.

Land rents are holding mostly steady, supported by higher property taxes and outside investor demand.

Interest expense is climbing as operating lines grow.

Fertilizer costs are a mixed bag. On corn, fertilizer costs are up about 7%, even though Barron believes most farms are staying with removal-rate applications. On soybeans, he says fertility costs will be lower, mainly because growers are putting less fertilizer on their bean acres and leaning harder on corn nutrients.

Machinery and equipment costs are also inching higher for the year ahead.

This Is Not A Repeat Of The 1980s

Despite the “red” many farmers will see on their spreadsheets in the year ahead, Barron says the current period is not a repeat of the 1980s farm crisis, for two key reasons:

Farmer equity is strong. Debt-to-asset ratios remain healthy for many U.S. growers, even if cash is tight.
Many farmer exits are voluntary. Today, many farmers are choosing to retire or scale back in order to protect equity.

Barron offers a recent example: “I got a call the other day on 7,000 acres, a 45-year-old farmer saying, ‘I’m not going to do this anymore. I’ve got a $5 million equity position, and I’m not going to go for a couple more years and chew away another million dollars. I’m just going to be done.’”

Strategies for the Current Climate

To survive — and potentially thrive — in this “repeat” cycle, Barron suggests focusing on these four areas in the year ahead:

Do the high-dollar work. Barron says the “$500-an-hour” work is crunching numbers in the farm office. “Know your true costs, stress-test budgets, analyze each profit center. A few hours spent with good numbers can be worth far more than another round in the tractor,” he says.
Protect yield. He advises against cutting seed, chemistry or other inputs that protect or enhance yield “just to save a few cents per bushel.”
Right-size your operation. Barron says some of the most successful turnarounds he’s seen with operations lately have come when farmers “right-sizes” — they’re doing less, but doing it better — instead of trying to be everything to everyone.
Use collaborative models. Barron says he is seeing more farmers share equipment and labor with their neighbors to spread fixed costs without extra capital.

Opportunity Will Still Knock

During a Top Producer podcast, Barron told Host Paul Neiffer that the tight times ahead will create new land-rent opportunities for some farmers who want to expand. What commonly happens when margins get tight is some farmers pull back, and that’s when expansion possibilities open up for others.

“We’ve had numerous clients call us about opportunities to rent land and not like in small amounts. When times are tight and when things aren’t good, that’s when these opportunities present themselves,” he says.

Barron’s message for those farmers in expansion mode: have your numbers, working capital and lender relationships in order now, so if the right block of ground comes available, you can move quickly and confidently on it.

If you’re interested in the ROI spreadsheet Barron’s team uses to analyze market trends, email cbarron@agviewsolutions.com .

Hear the complete discussion between Barron and Flory on Farm Journal TV . Also, you can listen to the Top Producer podcast discussion between Barron and Neiffer at the link below:

How the Bridge Payments Might Impact 2026 Planting Decisions

Sat, 20 Dec 2025 16:19:55 GMT

For the past three weeks, soybeans have been lower with the January contract now correcting nearly $1.20 off the Nov. 18 highs. The March contract has corrected $1.12. This comes as USDA is gearing up to announce payment rates for the Farmers Bridge Assistance (FBA) program this week. The University of Illinois’ Farmdoc estimates the payment rate for corn at $46 per acre and soybeans at $25 per acre.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the FBA program will impact his planting decisions for the 2026 crop season. A $46-per-acre payment on corn is woefully inadequate for him to plant corn next spring.

“This is like a bridge to nowhere,” he says.

Gulke says it’s politically popular for the administration to keep food prices as low as possible and still keep farmers in business. However, a $46 payment will barely cover his nitrogen fertilizer costs.

“I think [my fertilizer cost is] going to be up $33 an acre. If I get $45, then I just give it away again, and then maybe I farm another year,” he explains.

Plus, upside potential for corn is limited with carryout over 2.029 billion bushels, Gulke says.

“As it stands right now, we carried in 1.5 billion bushels. That’s 600 million bushels more carried into this marketing year than in 2024-2025,” he adds. “It’s going to be tough. We’re going to need a crop problem in the United States to solve that.”

Plant More Soybeans in 2026?
While the $25 per acre bridge payment on soybeans also falls short for farmers, Gulke says the cost of production is lower, making this option more attractive to him for 2026.

He can break even at $10 on soybeans sold out of the field, and even if the basis is wide, he won’t lose as much money on soybeans as he will on corn. If he puts the bridge payment and hedge profits into planting corn, it will quickly be gone to pay for fertilizer and herbicide.

“I got a quote for Roundup at $26 a gallon. That’s crazy,” Gulke says. “I’m just going to throw it away so I can break even and make $50 or $60 an acre on corn when someone just gave me $46? That’s like spitting in the wind.”

Gulke says the logical choice for his operation is to plant soybeans, which take fewer inputs and labor.

“I’ll plant soybeans, and I can combine them with a 40-foot head. I’m done pretty fast, I can put them in the bin and I can cut my labor and some of my machinery costs,” he adds.

Those farmers who didn’t apply anhydrous last fall still have options.

“I’m not opposed at all to planting beans on beans. I did that two years ago, and I didn’t suffer much of a loss at all,” Gulke says.

Fall Rally Presented a Profit in Soybeans
With the $1.40 rally up to $11.70 this fall in the soybean market, the nearby January contract offered a price that was more than $1 higher than 2024. For Gulke that presented an opportunity to hedge and lock in a profit.

“Corn hasn’t moved enough yet to make hedges profitable, but I took advantage of some fall prices in beans for 2026. I can take the profits on my soybean hedges and the bridge payment and when I put it into Excel spreadsheets from the University of Illinois it shows soybeans are my best option,” he says.

Each producer’s situation is different and Gulke stresses the importance of each operation evaluating how the USDA bridge payment will affect their profit and loss for 2025 or planting decisions for 2026.

For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Dollars And Dirt: Navigating The Financial Reality Of Conservation Farming

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 20:47:18 GMT

Farmers like Ted Hamer and April Hemmes aren’t opposed to conservation practices or regenerative agriculture—both Iowa row crop growers already use some. What they are opposed to is taking on unmanageable risk in an environment of tight margins, volatile markets and rising input costs without clear, reliable benefits.

During their recent, wide-ranging conversation on AgriTalk, a central theme emerged: if policymakers and companies seek broader adoption of conservation and regenerative practices, they must pair expectations with practical, well-designed incentives.

Here are some of the key points the two farmers made during their discussion with Host Davis Michaelson.

‘Regenerative’ is Just Good Farming
When new programs are announced with big dollar figures and bold language, they often imply that farmers need to be “fixed.” That doesn’t sit well with farmers, many of whom have been stewarding the same land for generations.

As Hemmes, based in Franklin County, Iowa, puts it, many practices highlighted under the umbrella of “regenerative agriculture” are simply standards for good farming.

“What you’re saying is regenerative ag, I just call farming. That’s just what we do. Taking care of our ground and having healthy soils is what we farmers do because it’s our legacy to our family,” says Hemmes, who uses no-till, cover crops and water management practices.

In her and Hamer’s perspective, farmers are not resistant to regenerative practices. Instead, they dislike being told they are “farming wrong” by groups and individuals outside of agriculture who may not fully grasp the on-the-ground economic and agronomic realities.

Tight Margins Make Experimenting A High-Stakes Decision
Hamer, based in Tama County, Iowa, explains that adopting new practices—such as cover crops, reduced tillage, or diversified rotations—often means incurring upfront costs, significant management changes, and a lot of uncertainty.

“It’s terribly risky with the margins we have right now… I’ve got to make a buck… I can’t have it be so risky that I don’t see a return on my investment,” Hamer says.

This is the crux of the matter: even when farmers are supportive and willing to adopt new practices and technologies, the math has to work, and some profit must be realized.

Their collective perspective is clear: without robust ROI data, strong cost-share or incentive payments, and integrated risk-management tools (like multi-year contracts or crop insurance integration), shifting current practices is often unjustifiable.

“The margins are too tight to stick your neck out very far at this time,” Hamer says.

Incentives Must Include Technical Support
National agricultural announcements often tout the dollar amounts available, such as the recently announced $700 million Regenerative Pilot Program . While funding is crucial, Hemmes points to an equally pressing need: technical support in the field to help implement the programs effectively.

“They need more dollars for people in the field…. I’ve been a soil and water commissioner for over 30 years, and we are in desperate need for technicians out here. So, throwing money at this is one thing, but getting the people in place to carry out the programs is another,” she says.

When USDA service centers, Extension offices, and others at the local level are understaffed and technical assistance is stretched thin, good programs can stall at the farm gate. Hemmes outlines the requirements for effective incentives:

Adequate Technical Assistance: To help farmers correctly design and implement complex practices.
Reasonable Timelines: Recognizing that some benefits, like improved soil structure and organic matter, take time to develop and build.
Simple, Predictable Processes: Application and compliance should be straightforward.

Without the necessary technical support and manpower, Hemmes notes that even the best programs often just turn into frustrating paperwork exercises.

Aid Payments Don’t Fix Structural Issues
Short-term “bridge” or aid payments can help keep farms afloat during difficult years, but Hemmes and Hamer say they don’t structurally support the long-term decisions that can improve grower practices and profitability.

The main issue, they contend, is that much of the money from these aid programs never truly stays on the farm.

“This payment (the $12 billion Farmer Bridge Assistance program) isn’t for us. It’s all going to input costs, fertilizer, equipment. None of that money stays in our hands,” Hamer says.

Hemmes agrees, noting that people outside of agriculture often “don’t see what the problem is” because farmers are seemingly getting “free” money.

“It’s not like we go to Amazon and order a bunch more crap off there because we got some money,” she says. “No. It goes to everything we have to do to put the next crop in the ground.”

Ultimately, she believes, major policy change requires facing difficult truths.

“We’d love free and fair trade, but we know that’s not a possibility,” she contends. “It’s going to hurt to make a change, and I think that’s what politicians don’t like. They want to get reelected, so [their attitude is] ‘let’s just keep doing it this way.’ That’s the tough part of it all, because anything that revolves around changing policy is messy.”

Hear the complete conversation between Hamer, Hemmes and Michaelson on AgriTalk:

No More Idle Fields: How A Small Fish Could Solve Rice Farmers' Winter Revenue Gap

Wed, 17 Dec 2025 15:25:04 GMT

Researchers are pioneering a system in Arkansas to turn winter-idle rice fields there into productive fish farms, potentially offering environmental benefits and a new revenue stream for growers.

Currently, rice is planted in the spring and harvested in the fall, leaving the fields empty in winter. But what if this non-productive period could be utilized to add a second, lucrative crop?

The ‘Fish In The Fields’ Project
University of Arkansas researcher Ben Runkle is exploring that question with his multiyear research project called, “Fish in the Fields.”

Runkle says the research is being conducted on a commercial rice farm in eastern Arkansas in Lonoke County, about 45 minutes east of Little Rock.

“The concept was introduced to us by partners from California, at the Resource Renewal Institute, who are interested in exploring different types of regenerative production that are environmentally-friendly and farmer-friendly,” Runkle says.

Scientists at the Institute reached out to Runkle and his group, knowing their expertise in agriculture and farm practices and the interactions between the carbon and water cycle.

“We started designing this experiment to explore the potential for growing fish as a crop, concurrent, or in the off season, with rice,” Runkle says.
The researchers are evaluating two key potential benefits:

environmental/agronomic: The fish can help consume and degrade some of the leftover residues of the rice plant. They are also theorized to reduce methane emissions from the field in the winter period, Runkle notes. Additionally, they process and cycle nutrients, which could potentially reduce fertilizer needs for the subsequent rice crop.
economic: The fish provide an alternate source of income for the farmers if they are harvested and sold on the market.

Runkle says there are a couple of similar projects he’s aware of that are underway in the U.S. One is in Louisiana, where rice farmers are doing some rotation with crawfish in their fields. There are also some similar projects underway in California, with researchers and farmers there exploring the use of fish in the wintertime to help break down residues.

Small Fish, Big Impact
Runkle says the Arkansas project is currently focused on growing fish commonly referred to as darters.

“They’re very small fish, basically like minnows. They are most commonly used as feed for other fish,” he explains.

The 2024 winter marked the third time Runkle and his research team have raised the fish in the field. In the process, they developed a prototype system to turn the fish into a marketable product.

“They are being flash freeze-dried, packaged, and will be sold as fish food,” Runkle says.

Along with developing a marketable product, Runkle says his team’s work has demonstrated some regenerative agriculture benefits.

“My graduate student’s research has found very low methane emissions in these fields, which is an environmental benefit,” Runkle says. “We also have some evidence of the fish consuming the leftover residue in the field, which provides an agronomic benefit.”

Along with those efforts, Runkle and hist team are taking water samples to assess zooplankton and phytoplankton, and flying a drone over the field to measure chlorophyll content. “It’s a highly integrated, real-world measurement system,” he says.

De-Risking The System For Farmers
Future phases of the research will continue to look at how farmers could benefit financially from including fish as a second crop in their fields during winter while incurring a low level of risk. Being able to produce an additional “crop” on fields could provide a financial boost to rice growers in Arkansas, the No. 1 rice-producing state in the country, and potentially, for rice growers in other states.

Runkle says his group is evaluating how to “de-risk the system” by making sure it demonstrates a clear profit, does not impact farmers’ main crop of rice and offers a reliable market for the uniquely grown fish.

“We would like to study more about the methane dynamics, the fish productivity, and critical harvest methods. A major factor is improving the harvest, which currently involves draining the fields just right to congregate the fish in a ditch, and then using a special pump system to collect them. It requires year-by-year iteration to improve,” Runkle notes.

Runkle says financial support by the Southern SARE Grant (Sustainable Agricultural Research and Education) and an NRCS Conservation Innovation Grant is funding the research.

To learn more about the fish-in-fields project, listen to the recent podcast, Short Talks From The Hill , where host Hardin Young and Runkle discuss the research and the potential opportunities for farmers.

Gulke: Soybeans Confirm Market Top

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 02:04:26 GMT

For the week March corn fell 4 cents, May corn was 3 ¼ lower, January soybeans lost 28 1/2, March fell 29 ¼, March soybean meal was $6.60 lower, March bean oil dropped 159 points, March soft red winter wheat was 6 ½ lower, March hard red winter wheat fell 13 ¼ and March hard red spring wheat was up 2 3/4.

Soybeans Confirm a Top
Soybeans were sharply lower on Friday with the January contract down 16 ¾ closing at $10.76 ¾ and lost over 28 cents for the week.The March contract was down 16 cents and lost over 29 cents for the week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says soybeans scored a bearish weekly reversal last week and this week’s lower weekly closes confirm the top is in the soybean market.

South American Crop and Biofuels Uncertainty Adds Pressure to Market
Gulke says the pressure this week in soybeans was tied to technical selling, but the market has also digested the bullish news of the China soybean purchase agreement and is now focusing on the record large South American crop.

Soybeans and bean oil also saw pressure on Friday from news EPA would not be delaying the release of the Renewable Fuels Standard Renewable Volume Obligations.Reuters on Friday reported the decision is likely to be punted into next year as EPA is still reviewing public comments on volume requirements, offering no guidance on timing. Gulke says, “It’s like that whole biofuels feed stock thing has also been kicked under the bus until maybe next summer or something.You wonder what kind of deal we made with China. What did we give away to get them to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans?”

Large Specs Were Long Soybeans at the Top
Soybeans topped on Nov. 18 with the January contract hitting a high of $10.79 ¼ and hit a low on Friday of $10.76 3/4 a correction of 94 cents. Gulke says large speculators started buying prior to the announcement of the U.S. China trade framework and continued to add to their long position in tandem with China making soybean purchases.The delayed CFTC Commitment of Traders report as of Nov. 18 showed specs were long 163,700 contracts of soybeans at the time the market topped. “And now with the report coming out late we’re going to be caught up by the early January and we’ll probably show that the large spec beat us to the punch again, and maybe, already started to liquidate,” he explains.

How Low Do Soybeans Project To On The Charts?
With another bearish close on soybeans Friday and for the week how low will soybeans fall? Gulke says the charts project to the gap area left on Oct. 24 on the January soybeans that extends from $10.63 up to $10.70. He says this is part of the price discovery process in the soybean market.“And now we go back and say, well, we’ve got a big South American crop coming.The profitability of corn and soybeans is bad this year. We’re going to get a bridge, perhaps, but that’s not enough. The job of price discovery is to see if $10.70 is cheap enough to get farmers like me not to plant as many soybean acres next year,” he says.

Gulke says soybeans could fall to the top side of the gap at $10.70 and stop but if the gap is filled and the soybean market closes below that area it is bearish for prices.

(Gulke Group )

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

‘Farmers Can’t Outyield the Balance Sheet Anymore’

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 22:39:11 GMT

Randy Dowdy, high-yield corn and soybean farmer and agronomic consultant, paints a stark picture of the economic pressure bearing down on American farmers.

Fresh from a visit with customers, Dowdy says the same three questions dominate almost every discussion he had with growers:

Where can we cut costs?
Where do we have to spend money to stay in business?
How do we service existing debt when margins are razor thin?

Even with strong yields this year, many of the farmers, he notes, “could not outyield the balance books.” Commodity prices have not kept pace with rising costs, he says, leaving farmers struggling to keep their operations in the black.

Costs Have Soared, Partly Due To Regulations
Dowdy contrasts his early years in farming with today’s reality. When he started farming in 2008, his first tractor cost between $150,000 and $175,000. Now, he says, a similar horsepower tractor “can run roughly three times that dollar amount.”

He traces a significant part of that escalation to emissions and environmental regulations that began ramping up in the late 2000s. He recalls an initial price jump, followed by annual increases of 6% to 8% since then, compounding the burden on farm finances. The complexity that comes with the machinery systems, he argues, also has stripped farmers of their ability to repair their own equipment.

“You can’t work on [equipment] without a computer. Even the technicians can’t work on them without a computer,” he mentioned on a recent AgriTalk segment.

Noting not all of the price jump is due to emissions controls, Dowdy believes the regulatory wave gave some manufacturers cover to raise prices.

Tension Between Policy and Reality
Dowdy’s comments on AgriTalk came following a White House roundtable on Monday tied to a new $12 billion “bridge payment” plan . President Donald Trump said his administration will move quickly to ease environmental requirements affecting tractors and other farm machinery , arguing the changes will lower sticker prices and simplify repairs.

On Wednesday more news followed with Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins and Health Secretary Robert “F” Kennedy Jr., announcing a $700 million initiative for regenerative agriculture .

Dowdy said he’s not opposed to supporting agricultural niches — all of the profitable corn and soybean growers he and Total Acre business partner David Hula met with recently have some kind of specialty angle.

“If there’s a little help for those guys, I don’t have a problem with it. But at the end of the day, the row crop farmers are where the help needs to be,” he notes.

Part of the help has to do with machinery costs. He highlighted cotton pickers as one example.

“The cotton industry’s got one manufacturer that I’m aware of that makes a cotton picker. One. And it’s $1.2 million,” he says. “Where’s the competition that helps make that thing affordable?”

Dowdy doesn’t claim to have all the answers, but he would like a “seat at the table” to have a candid conversation with policymakers and regulators focused on one core goal: bringing equipment and input costs back within reach so farmers can keep their operations viable.

“I’m all for the farmer,” Dowdy says. “If the farmer wins, everybody wins.”

Dowdy and Hula address farmer profitability needs in more detail in their new Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast, available here:

You can also catch the AgriTalk discussion between Dowdy and Host Davis Michaelson below:

USDA Cuts Corn Carryout With Record Exports: Soybeans and Wheat Unchanged

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 22:45:41 GMT

The December WASDE is not historically a big market mover as USDA does not adjust domestic production, just demand. However, the agency did provide more than a lump of coal for the corn market in the report.

USDA Cuts Corn Ending Stocks
The agency made an aggressive cut to U.S. corn ending stocks for 2025-26 by 125 million bu. to 2.029 billion bu. The cut came as a result of the agency raising corn exports by 125 million bu. to a record 3.2 billion bu.

Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net says that was not a major surprise considering the strong pace of corn export sales, plus export shipments to date are up nearly 69% over last year. “So they raised the exports, 125 million, and it makes sense that they did it. Exports have been running red hot here for the last couple months. So the government reflected that in the balance sheet and they took that carryout now down to just a shade over 2 billion bu.” he says. Still, McCormick says carryout is 500 million bushels above last year which is a headwind for the market.

(Farm Journal )

USDA Cuts Global Corn Carryout Well Below Last Year
USDA lowered global corn carryout by 2.2 million metric tons to 279.2 million, well under last year which was also constructive according to McCormick. “The world carryout numbers are dropping. We are now roughly at 10-year lows on raw stocks. We’re at 10-year lows on stocks to use. Now, these numbers will be comfortable, if we have no production problems in South America.” However, he states that if there is a production hiccup or China buys due to the quality issues they are seeing with their corn crop that could spark a rally.

USDA did leave South American corn production unchanged with Brazil at 131 MMT and Argentina at 53 MMT.

U.S. Wheat Ending Stocks Unchanged, Global Carryout Hiked
The one caveat is global wheat supplies are capping corn prices according to McCormick and it was reflected in the balance sheets as USDA raised carryout 3.4 million tons to nearly 275 MMT. That is also around 15 MMT higher than a year ago.

McCormick says that is because USDA raised production for a handful of major wheat producing countries. Canada’s crop was pegged at a record 40 MMT, up 3 MMT, Argentina’s production was also a record 24 MMT, up 2 MMT and the EU was 1.7 MMT higher.

He says, “They raised the Canadian crop, they raised the Australia crop, and they raised the Argentina crop, and on the Argentina crop, it’s a big crop, but it’s also got quality issues, which some of that wheat’s going to compete with the corn on the international feed market. So right now, the market is going to struggle in the wheat near term.”

USDA left U.S. ending stocks unchanged at 901 million bu.

(Farm Journal )

U.S. Soybean Balance Sheet Unchanged, Global Revisions Minor
On soybeans, USDA raised world ending stocks only .4 MMT to 122.4 MMT and left South America production unchanged with Brazil at 175 MMT and Argentina at 48.5 MMT.

USDA also kicked the can down the road leaving U.S. ending stocks at 290 million bu. “You could argue it’s a little bit of the gift because I think with China, even buying 12 million metric tons, I think with the lost sales we’re getting from the other countries, I think it’s going to be hard to keep this carry out under 300 million when it’s all said and done,” he explains.

The biggest changes on supply and demand will come with the final report in January.

Did the USDA Set Corn Prices Up For a Santa Claus Rally?

Tue, 09 Dec 2025 21:40:48 GMT

Check out our WASDE report Recap! (with charts!)

Did the USDA Set Corn Prices Up For a Santa Claus Rally? - Blue Line Futures

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This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Soybeans Break to Six-Week Lows Ahead of Tomorrow's WASDE Report

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 21:38:59 GMT

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Blue Line Futures is a member of NFA and is subject to NFA’s regulatory oversight and examinations. However, you should be aware that the NFA does not have regulatory oversight authority over underlying or spot virtual currency products or transactions or virtual currency exchanges, custodians, or markets. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you considering your financial condition.

With Cyber-attacks on the rise, attacking firms in the healthcare, financial, energy, and other state and global sectors, Blue Line Futures wants you to be safe! Blue Line Futures will never contact you via a third-party application. Blue Line Futures employees use only firm-authorized email addresses and phone numbers. If you are contacted by any person and want to confirm your identity please reach out to us at info@bluelinefutures.com or call us at 312- 278-0500

Performance Disclaimer

Hypothetical performance results have many inherent limitations, some of which are described below. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those shown. In fact, there are frequently sharp differences between hypothetical performance results and the actual results subsequently achieved by any particular trading program.

One of the limitations of hypothetical performance results is that they are generally prepared with the benefit of hindsight. In addition, hypothetical trading does not involve financial risk, and no hypothetical trading record can completely account for the impact of financial risk in actual trading. For example, the ability to withstand losses or to adhere to a particular trading program in spite of trading losses are material points that can also adversely affect actual trading results. There are numerous other factors related to the markets in general or to the implementation of any specific trading program that cannot be fully accounted for in the preparation of hypothetical performance results all of which can adversely affect actual trading results.

Research Disclaimer

All information, communications, publications, and reports, including this specific material, used and distributed by Blue Line Futures LLC shall be construed as, or is in the nature of, a Solicitation for entering into a futures transaction. Blue Line Futures LLC does not employ research analysts, or maintain a research department as defined in CFTC Regulation 1.71.

Seasonal Disclaimer

This message and its content is intended only for the person or entity to which it is addressed and should not be shared with additional parties. Seasonal tendencies are a composite of some of the most consistent commodity futures seasonals that have occurred in the past several years. There are usually underlying, fundamental circumstances that occur annually that tend to cause the futures markets to react in similar directional manner during a certain calendar year even if a seasonal tendency occurs in the futures, it may not result in a profitable transaction as fees and the timing of the entry and liquidation may impact on the results. No representation is being made that any account has in the past, or will in the futures, achieve profits using these recommendations. No representation is being made that price patterns will recur in the future.

Cutting Through the Confusion: White House Confirms Trade Agreement With China on Soybeans

Mon, 08 Dec 2025 15:53:55 GMT

Late last week, grain markets got a jolt. A claim about China and U.S. soybean purchases spread fast , morphed into “headline certainty” and briefly fueled market chatter that the key buying framework didn’t exist.

A marketing firm reported U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said there’s no deal with China on soybeans. That report was unverified but spread through the markets.

Then, over the weekend, additional comments, reporting and other policy analysts reiterated that China is buying U.S. soybeans because that’s what they agreed to do.

“With China, it’s always: We verify and we monitor and we watch the commitments. The commitments are quite specific,” Greer said Sunday on Fox News. “So all of these things that we’ve agreed to with the Chinese recently are very concrete, we can monitor them with some ease, and so far, we’re seeing that they’re in compliance.”

Greer said China has gotten approximately “a third” of the way through its soybean purchase commitment for this growing season.

Also over the weekend, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated China is making good progress on its commitment to buy U.S. soybeans , reaching the “correct cadence,” with purchases expected to finish by February 2026, highlighting both the ongoing trade commitments and the need for continued support for farmers.

Bessent also said China’s commitment to buying 12 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans runs through the end of February. That comment, which was seen as Bessent moving the goalpost on when China will complete its purchase commitment, also negatively impacted prices as it fueled more uncertainty.

Private exporters reported sales of 4.85 million bu. or 132,000 metric tons of #soybeans for delivery to #China during the 2025/2026 marketing year. #USDA @AgDayTV @FarmJournal @USFarmReport
— Michelle Rook (@michellerookag) December 8, 2025

Despite the mixed comments, China is still buying U.S. soybeans, a sign there is an agreement with China. USDA confirmed another 4.85 million bushel sale to China, which is 132,000 MT.

Before Monday’s confirmation, as of early December 2025, China has only booked roughly 3 MMT of U.S. soybeans toward its 12 MMT commitment for the final two months of 2025. While Bessent says China is on track to reach that commitment, the total remains far short of the target, and economists are split on whether China will meet the full volume . It’s also key to note China is actually buying, something analysts say wouldn’t happen if there wasn’t an agreement in place.

How the Market Rumor Took Off

According to Washington analyst and regular “AgriTalk” guest Jim Wiesemeyer, on Friday, at least one commodity analyst group circulated a note asserting a Trump administration official, reportedly U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer, said there was no U.S.-China agreement in place for Beijing to purchase U.S. soybeans.

The problem: The claim arrived without verification. Wiesemeyer pointed out there was no transcript, no audio and no on-the-record quote. He also said there was no published statement from USTR to support the sweeping interpretation that some policy or purchasing framework had been reversed or didn’t exist.

Still, similar to what happened with a New World screwworm rumor, the rumor ricocheted through portions of ag-market media and social channels, where a single unattributed line quickly hardened into broader conclusions such as there is no agreement, the deal collapsed or China won’t buy, which according to Bessent’s comments over the weekend, isn’t true.

Wiesemeyer says soybean trade headlines are uniquely prone to rumor-driven distortion, and this flare-up checked several familiar boxes:

1) Politics gets oversimplified
Many market analysts are excellent on supply-demand fundamentals but are less reliable interpreters of negotiation tactics, tariff strategy and the way trade messaging gets used as leverage.

2) Position bias creeps in
In fast markets, some commentary “fits” preexisting long or short positions. Information that supports a bias gets amplified, while contradictory context gets ignored.

The Key Point: An “Agreement” Isn’t a Simple Yes or No

China’s soybean buying is never just about one sentence or one headline. It is shaped by a stack of moving parts, including:

tariff structures and exemptions
political leverage inside broader negotiations
Chinese feed demand and crush margins
seasonal price competitiveness (U.S. versus Brazil)

That’s why a claim like “there is no agreement” can be misleading even when it contains a sliver of technical truth. Sometimes “no agreement” means no formal, binding document in the way markets imagine, not that political commitments, buying intentions or commercial flows have stopped.

In other words: A framework can still exist even if it isn’t a tidy, enforceable contract, and purchases can still occur even if every detail hasn’t been restated publicly.

A Weekend Signal Points to a “Deal” with China

Adding context to the late-week confusion: China’s state stockpiler Sinograin plans to auction 512,500 metric tons of imported soybeans on Dec. 11, according to a notice from the National Grain Trade Center. Reuters reported analysts viewed the size of the sale, and the fact it’s the first auction in three months, as a potential signal Beijing is clearing storage space ahead of additional state-directed buying.

That kind of reserve rotation doesn’t align neatly with the idea that China’s commitments have evaporated. If anything, it’s consistent with China positioning itself for additional procurement under ongoing trade expectations.

Where Do We Go From Here?

Market talk isn’t always news. Until an official statement is issued by USTR, USDA or the White House, sweeping claims that the U.S.-China soybean buying framework has “collapsed” should be treated as exactly what they are: market noise.

And producers and traders should remember the lesson from this episode: In grain markets, a rumor can move faster than a confirmation, but it shouldn’t move your decision-making faster than the facts.

Has the Soybean Market Topped?

Sat, 06 Dec 2025 16:41:43 GMT

For the week March corn was down 3 cents, January soybeans lost 32 ½, March soybean meal fell $12.00, March soybean oil was 35 points lower, March soft red winter wheat was down 2 3/4, March hard red winter wheat gained 3 ¾ and March hard red spring wheat fell 5.

Soybeans collapsed on Friday with the January contract $.14 ¼ lower at $11.05 ¼ and also ending down $.33 for the week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the close was bearish as it confirmed a head and shoulders top by taking out the neckline at $11.13 and closing below that chart area. In the process, January soybeans also closed below the November low. He says that now opens the door to the $10.80 area or close to a 62% retracement from the October low to the November 18 high of $11.69 ½.

The fall rally coincided with the anticipation and then announcement of a trade truce and purchase agreement with China for U.S. soybeans.On October 30 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the framework would include China purchasing 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, followed by purchases of 25 MMT for 2026 -2028.With China absent from the U.S. soybean export program, it was what the market needed to produce a nearly $1.40 rally. Gulke says, “The fall rally is price discovery of all the news that it has come out regarding China, both rumored and actual starting the end of October,”

The November high coincided with USDA confirming a daily export sale of 792,000 MT or 29.1 million bu. of soybeans to China for 2025-2026.January soybeans rallied up to $11.69 ½ but then closed lower and scored a daily key reversal in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction. Gulke says the market has not retested that area due to the lack of clarity regarding details and timing of the 12 MMT of soybean purchases included in the U.S. China trade framework.

This week Bessent added to the uncertainty in a Wall Street Journal interview when he suggested China was on target and would complete its buying program by February 28, once again moving the goalposts and creating the bearish price action. “We needed to see the market go higher and believe that not only are we going to go above $11.80 but we’re going a lot higher because China’s going to buy a lot of grain every week in order to meet their commitment in the next 30 to 60 days. That didn’t materialize,” he says.

Gulke says the daily reversal on November 18 is more bearish when considering the latest update on the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. The Large Speculative Position (blue bars on the chart) below shows they significantly increased longs the first three weeks of November. “That coincides with talk of China buying and the Gulke Group’s technical system going long, after we first took profits on hedges and then bought the call options,” he explains. The report on December 5 shows specs were already long by the end of October. So, they covered shorts and reversed their net short position going into the October 30 meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi and by the time of the meeting were neutral.

When USDA finally gets caught up, Gulke says the report may show large speculators have already started to liquidate and take profits on long positions.Details of the framework and Bessent’s comments on Wednesday are important. He says, “Buying by China may have already taken place and thanks to the inability of USDA to upgrade data quickly, the trade could very well be behind the curve.Price discovery may have already been fulfilled with July futures (Brazil’s hedging tool) hitting $11.80, which is a very good price for Brazil’s 174 mmt crop.”

Price wise, January, July and November futures indicate short-term downtrends and need a significant turnaround to turn positive. As such, he will be closely watching next week’s reports. “The December WASDE on Tuesday should contain better analysis by USDA on demand given framework and administration rhetoric,” he adds.
For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .