MARKETS

Xi-Trump Summit May Yield Farm Deal, But China Has Limited Soybean Appetite

Tue, 12 May 2026 17:03:37 GMT

China and the United States may reach a farm deal at their summit this week that expands Beijing’s purchases of grains and meat, but market watchers said they did not expect major new soybean purchases beyond what was agreed in a deal last October.

Agriculture is among the less-contentious areas of the bilateral relationship, but the final shape of any deliverables from the May 14-15 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping remains uncertain just days out, officials, traders and analysts said.

The White House is seeking bigger commitments from Beijing on soybean and other agricultural purchases, said a person familiar with the talks.

“They know it’s something that they need. They know it’s something we want to sell. So, whether it’s at the trip or shortly thereafter is to be seen,” said a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on the trip, without specifying any products.

More than a dozen CEOs and top executives , including Brian Sikes, chair of U.S. grain trader Cargill, will join Trump on his visit, according to a White House official.

However, traders and analysts said any deal is likely to be limited by what they see as Beijing’s unwillingness to buy more soybeans, the biggest-ticket crop, beyond a commitment made last October , given weak demand and cheap alternatives from Brazil.

Instead, markets are looking for new deals for corn, sorghum and milling wheat as well as beef and poultry, some of which was hinted at during high-level talks in March.

“There’s still some space to strike purchase deals for other major U.S. exports. That could take the form of volume purchase deals for key products like corn and sorghum,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

In 2024, before Trump returned to office, China bought roughly $4.5 billion of those products, a sum dwarfed by $12 billion in soybeans.

China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Soybean Status Quo

China has dramatically scaled back its reliance on U.S. farm goods since Trump’s first term, sourcing roughly 20% of its soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, the year before he returned to office, down from 41% in 2016.

Last year, China bought just 15% of its soybeans from the U.S.

Markets are awaiting clarity on how China will fulfil last year’s commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually until 2028, which would be the most since 2022.

“China hasn’t ever officially confirmed the details of the agreement. It’s also not clear whether the targets apply to calendar years or crop years,” said Pay.

Any confirmation of renewed Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans would likely lift Chicago soybean Sv1 prices, which are already near two-month highs, partly on expectations China will step up purchases.

“When President Trump and Xi meet, we’d be thrilled to see additional purchases from China that would put us closer to the typical amount of exports in a typical year,” said Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association, declining to specify a target volume.

(Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and Trevor Hunnicutt in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Heather Schlitz in Chicago; Editing by Sonali Paul)

Grains End Higher for April: Is a Bull Market Underway?

Sat, 02 May 2026 01:02:38 GMT

For the week July corn was up 16 3/4 cents, December was 14 ½ higher, July soybeans gained 24 ¾, November soybeans soared 27, July soybean meal was up $.20, July soybean oil surged 383 points, July hard red winter wheat was 24 ¾ higher, July soft red winter wheat gained 21 and September hard red spring wheat was up 12 ½.

Higher Monthly Closes in April
Grain markets were all higher for the week and closed April with a second consecutive higher monthly close.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says technically it is a very bullish to see grain markets making new highs for the year starting in May.

What Does it Signal?
“When you close above the previous month’s high, usually what that tells you is that going all the way back to January the market is digesting and discounting all the fundamental news that came out, even the most bearish news in the January 12 WASDE,” he explains.

The market also rejected the bearish news from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum in February and the delayed meeting with China in March.

“All that was digested and you couldn’t close below the previous month’s low like we did in past down trending markets.The market indicated it needed to push prices high enough to ration the demand for some reason and it exceeds all those fundamentals that are there. And we did it in April,” he adds.

Now the market is looking ahead at acreage according to Gulke and trying to determine if there will be more acres of soybeans and less acres of corn because of high fertilizer prices.

“So, you end up on Friday with corn going up more than beans or as much as beans, five cents. So, it looks like there’s a concern out there that even with lower exports to China and a record crop in Brazil, we need more acres of soybeans. That’s pretty exciting,” he says.

Now that the market has moved above the April highs he says the confirmation of a bull market is to see that uptrend continue in May.

“I want to see that continue in the first full trading day and week in May and through the WASDE report.Historically this time frame in May 10-13 has been a time when the market prices in the best news.So, we need to hold above that April high during May or there is a problem,” he says.

Currently he thinks the market is acting like it doesn’t care how many acres of corn or soybeans farmers grow because it is not going to be adequate.

Start of a Bigger Bull Market?
So, is this the beginning of a bigger bull market like the one that started in 2020 coming out of COVID?

Gulke thinks so and it’s being pushed by demand.

Two Large Demand Factors
1. Global Biofuels – The first demand component is the global push for biofuels.

Gulke says it’s not just the U.S. but economies around the world are looking at alternatives to mitigate $100 plus crude oil prices, plus high gasoline diesel fuel prices.

Countries like Indonesia are pushing from a B40 to a B50 biodiesel mandate and Brazil is increasing their ethanol blending rate from 30% to 32%.

Gulke says even in Illinois they have increased their vegetable oil based biodiesel blending rate from 10% to 20%.are using a 20% biodiesel blend made from soybean oil.

He says, “If crude oil stays above $100 suddenly everyone is going to need alternatives.”

2. Food Security – The second demand component is a function of food security.

Gulke says with near to record higher global fertilizer prices and a supply crunch in many countries’ food insecurity is on the rise.

“If you’re in a crisis area for crude oil and energy, you’ve got to say which is more important, the food I eat or the fuel that I burn in a car to go get my groceries?”

While the U.S. doesn’t have a problem with energy supplies, the prices are globally driven.

“Countries that have to import 70% to 80% of their energy, and they’re also importing food. You’ve got to be thinking about storing a little more grain in your country just in case,” he adds.

Plus, if tariffs are causing countries to buy more from the U.S., Gulke thinks that helps with demand.

Bull Markets Difficult to Manage
So, if the U.S. is on the verge of a bull market what should producers do?

Gulke says bull markets are difficult to manage.

“Bear markets, when something happens, you can sell on the bottom, gravity takes over. Bull markets just keep eating away at the negative rhetoric, like we’ve seen for months in the agriculture community. The price of inputs is going up but the price of commodities is also going up to help mitigate some of that, unless you are highly leveraged,” he describes.

According to Gulke, the problem is also if farmers sell now and the price goes up, they feel like they’ve left money on the table.

“So, it’s very difficult to handle bull markets because you can’t pick a top until it’s behind you in most cases but it’s still exciting,” he concludes.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Markets Fail to Rally on Positive News

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 14:51:19 GMT

For the week May corn was down 3 ½ cents, May soybeans lost 2 cents, May soybean meal plunged $12.50, May soybean oil soared 190 points, May hard red winter wheat was up 26 ½, May soft red winter wheat gained 9 ¾ and May hard red spring wheat was 20 ¼ higher.

Corn and soybeans were lower for the week and on Friday with a bearish reaction to several positive announcements during the White House Celebration of Ag.

One of the most significant was EPA’s release of the final Renewable Fuel Standard Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027.

EPA’s final rule maintains the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 and 2027.

Blending levels for biomass-based diesel, which includes biodiesel and renewable diesel, were also increased by nearly 60% from the previous standards to between an estimated 5.0 to 5.7 billion gallons according to Clean Fuels Alliance America.

Corn and Soybeans React Negatively to RVO Announcement
Jerry Gulke president of the Gulke Group says beyond the final RVOs, President Trump didn’t talk about anything new for agriculture at the event, so corn and soybeans sold off.

He says when a market reacts negatively to positive news that’s not a good sign.

The RVO announcement had been anticipated for weeks and Gulke says the markets saw profit taking as the news was already priced in.

Soybean oil had been on a tear since January, and old and new crop corn had rallied well off the long-term lows hit 18 months ago.

“There’s an old trader’s axiom, I guess you call it, that says it’s not so much what the report says, it’s what the market does with the report. And if you close lower, on what would otherwise be a friendly or a bullish report, that probably tells you that the majority of that good news was already baked into the price,” he explains.

Even sharply higher crude oil prices failed to rally corn and soybeans on Friday.

Gulke thinks the markets are starting to become numb to the war news and will need a fresh bullish catalyst to resume the rally.

“That’s kind of a caution signal to me that we’d better we better pull another rabbit out of the hat on Tuesday or we may be in trouble for the short run,” he adds.

Markets Await USDA Reports
In fact, corn and soybeans did not totally collapse because the market is waiting for the results of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports on March 31.

Gulke says the trade will be watching to see if the corn acres were reduced even more than initially thought due to the impact the Iran war has had on fertilizer prices and supplies.

He says the Gulke Group’s client surveys on acreage were on the high end of the corn estimates.

“We don’t see the big drop in corn acres and going to soybeans.”

He says the U.S. will need an additional 3.8 or 4 million acres of beans with the higher RVOs and if China does buy new crop soybeans at harvest when prices are low.

Without that kind of a shift, he contends the U.S. will continue to see big corn supplies which will back December corn prices off of current levels.

He says many farmers will make that decision in the next 30 days depending on whether or not they have fertilizer in place and what corn prices do.

“That may make some of those guys switch. And again, then we won’t know until June 30 what actually happened,” he adds.

Is the Rally Over in Corn and Soybeans?
With lower weekly closes and a lack of bullish news is the rally over in corn and soybeans?

He says even if the corn market trades higher right after the report but takes out this week’s lows and results in a lower weekly close that will cause concern.

Gulke says, “I don’t want to risk as much as I did. I wanted to risk more 18 months ago when I felt the market had changed. But if you go back to August of 2024, look at what the prices were at the end of August when we made those lows and where they are now. We’re considerably higher.”

He says soybeans are worth $100 an acre more than they were 18 months ago and even last fall.

Even corn is approaching $5 for March delivery for those that store grain.

Gulke says prices were high enough for him to reward the market with some cash sales.

“I don’t want to be short the futures here necessarily, but I made cash sales at better prices than last fall,” he says.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Rally in Crude Oil Brings New Crop Grain Marketing Opportunities

Sat, 21 Mar 2026 15:46:49 GMT

For the week May corn was down 1 ¾ cents, December lost ¾, May soybeans plunged 64, November soybeans fell 20 ½, May soybean meal gained $5.30, May bean oil lost 193 points, May soft red winter wheat was 18 ½ lower, May hard red winter wheat was down 23 ¾, May hard red spring wheat fell 17 ½.

Grains were all lower for the week with profit taking heading into the weekend and seeing a needed correction after a rally that has lasted for more than six weeks.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grain markets have been a buzz with headlines around the Iran war and energy prices.

He says the rally in crude oil is about global energy security but it has benefited the grain markets and just provided another fundamental reason to justify a market that technically looked like it was poised to move higher several months ago.

“When you make new highs for the year and month, go higher than January and February in March, and you’ve got soybeans at the highest level since 2004, and even wheat is going up. Now you’ve got to ask yourself, what’s going on that made that possible? And I think the war is one of those things and it’s all energy security.”

Global Food Security
According to Gulke, global food security is also a big part of the recent strength in the energy and grain market.

“There are countries that are begging for not only energy, but maybe not getting fertilizer because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. You’ve got to ask yourself if you’re one of the countries, how much do I really want to rely on Brazil or Russia or the United States to get me grain when the path to my country has been blocked?”

Gulke says when shipping shuts down and you can’t get food, energy or fertilizer at any price it changes the attitude of the market participants because there are many countries that aren’t food independent like the U.S.

“I always ask people that doubt all that. What would you pay for a loaf of bread to feed your kids today if you had one when you’re not going to get another one for two weeks or three weeks? It’s priceless,” he adds.

Gulke says just-in-time inventory works for companies that supply parts or less perishable products.It doesn’t work for people that need food on a 30-day or 60-day basis.

Time for a Grain Reserve?
Gulke wrote a column in Top Producer a couple of years ago about how it was high time that the world did not rely on the U.S. to be the supplier of last resort, so to speak.

The Iran war has renewed his idea that the time has come for some type of grain reserve where countries would have a 30-day or 60-day supply on hand all the time.“If it’s 60 days, how much did that cost them versus not having it? And we see the riots in Cuba for not having lights on. You know, what happens if they don’t have the food come in? I don’t think any government wants to take that chance. And I think it’s a small price to pay for food security.”

That might take building grain bins or extra freezer storage for meat, but according to Gulke it would be worth it.

Corn at $5
Even with the slight correction on Friday, new crop corn and soybeans have been gaining on old crop already pricing in higher fuel, fertilizer and shipping costs for 2026 and even 2027.

In fact, March 2027 corn ended at $5 and it’s a level many farmers thought was unattainable just a few weeks ago according to Gulke.The market was so negative for the last year about a record crop in Brazil and the idea the U.S. could not compete, which held back any promise of prosperity.

Gulke says these price levels have given farmers some marketing opportunities.

“You know $4.50 was a big deal. Now we’ve got $5 corn for next year.If you’ve got storage at home, you can pick that up and hedge it off and make money on the basis gain.”

He says there are various marketing tools and farmers can use futures and options at the right time to lock in these levels.

Marketing Strategy
The Gulke Group did recommend clients sell some corn on Friday.

“I think we sold 10%. We made our first sale of November soybeans, and it was over $12. I wanted to net $12 out of the field. Didn’t quite make, I think I got $10.95 for the first 10% or 15% that we sold. From here on up, its profit,” he details.

Gulke recommends farmers look hard at their break evens with trusted advisors and start assembling a marketing plan.He says producers need to take advantage of the strong market in case things change, including the weather.

“As a farmer I tell myself, I’m hoping to sell 10% or 15% of my cash grain out of the field. And if I’m wrong at $12 in soybeans, then so be it. We’ll worry about that later down the road. It’s interesting to see this unfold. I’m not negative by any stretch of the imagination about the future, but I’ve got enough common sense to say you know, I’m not going to risk my farm.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Corn Sees a Paradigm Shift...Just Like Soybeans

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 16:29:35 GMT

For the week May corn was up 6 ¾ cents, December corn gained 7, May soybeans soared 24 ½, November soybeans were up 14 ¾, May soybean meal was $5.50 per short ton higher, May soybean oil added 86 points, May soft red winter wheat lost 3, May hard red winter wheat was 6 ½ higher and May hard red spring wheat gained 2.

Grain markets were mostly higher for the week with soybeans leading the gains, despite increased volatility tied to the Iran war.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the strength was even more impressive considering the market absorbed massive farmer selling by those who had stored old crop grain and were finally able to reward the market on the rally.

“Corn futures absorbed the increase in farmer selling this week like it wasn’t there. The market even ignored news that elevators and ethanol plants bought so much that they have filled needs for next 60-90 days.That process is called “shaking the lose leaves off the tree,”

He says even the large speculative net position in corn has been decreasing since last October.

Paradigm Shift in Corn
Gulke says this is a result of the paradigm shift that has also taken place in the corn market.

Last week Gulke dove into the change in market outlook for soybeans from positive to negative 18 months ago, adding that he though Q1 of 2026 would be friendly.Soybeans are already in the process of breaking a four-year down trend and according to Gulke corn is setting up for the same type of technical action.

Corn Chart Shows a Breakout
The monthly continuous corn chart looks similar to last week’s soybean chart.

Gulke explains the uptrends in the early 2000’s were a result of the increase in ethanol production and demand, which resulted in corn topping out near $8 per bu.

“Price discovery then says, all right, we’ve got all these people now growing $8 corn. We’ve got too much, and the price went down to seek more demand and never really did go back.” That was followed by a seven-year demand building era trying to match demand with oversupply.

Gulke says the drought induced supply rally of 2011-2012 topped corn again near $8 proving that even Brazil would respond to price by adding corn, as well as soybean acres.“We finally got corn back up to a price that invited more competition out of Brazil. And that’s what high prices do. They invite competition,” he explains.

This brings us to today where the corn market has spent several years once again building demand, and that’s the process according to Gulke. “That’s how it works. If you want to fight against that, it’s a losing proposition.”

(Gulke Group)

Corn Chart Shows Long Term Low Forged
The continuous corn chart, which monitors the front month, shows three distinct lows coinciding with August 31^st he says. This includes the low made in August of 2024.

“That’s when we said there was a paradigm shift in agriculture ahead of even Trump getting elected and the tariffs being invoked. It is a global phenomenon that took place and we would have had a demand increase in corn and soybeans even without the tariffs,” he explains.

Last August, the corn market made another significant low, according to Gulke, and is now rallying off that low.

“Now we’re trying to break out above levels that were former support. You can see it on the chart. The media will tell you that’s all about oil, and it’s correlated with this and that. This started a long time ago,” he adds.

Outlook for Corn
Corn prices have rallied well off the August 12 low of $4.10. Gulke says producers who held grain in storage waiting for this kind of opportunity should be rewarding the market.

“Now I’ve got 40 to 50 cents a bushel more. You know, that’s $100 an acre on 200-bushel corn. Even if I told you it’s going to go to $7, you probably want to sell some because you don’t want to risk the whole farm. You risk it when it’s cheap and you can’t replace it for a new crop for that price, then you hold it. There’s a risk and reward, and now the time for taking a reward,” he explains.

However, Gulke’s longer term outlook for corn is bullish as demand continues strong, especially for with record exports and ethanol production.

“I have a feeling that China will probably become a corn buyer down the road a ways, and that may be next fall. They’re not going to buy high-priced stuff now perhaps, but we’ll see what comes out of the meeting in April.”

Gulke thinks China’s economy is faltering and with the U.S. now controlling more of the global oil supplies the U.S. has leverage.“So, we’re kind of holding a lever over their heads that’s going to help our grain prices help them buy from us.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Did the Iran War Really Move Grain Prices Higher This Week?

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 16:53:05 GMT

For the week May corn was up 12 cents, December corn gained 15, May soybeans soared 30, November soybeans were 18 ½ higher, May soybean meal lost $3.30 per short ton, May bean oil surged 473 points, May soft red winter wheat was 25 ¼ better, May hard red winter wheat tacked on 43, May hard red spring wheat was 13 higher.

Grain Rally Not Tied to War

Grain futures were all higher for the week and posted new highs for the move and for the calendar year on Friday.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says while many analysts are pointing to the rally in crude oil and the war in Iran as the reason for the strong grain performance, he thinks the breakout was brewing long before that.

He thinks its the early signal of a longer-term bull market, and it would have also happened with or without President Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool for trade.

“If you think about it, all this is happening even after the Supreme Court said the tariffs were invalid. So that convinced me that my assessment was correct and that this was going to happen with or without tariffs,” he explains.

Stars Align in the Grains

Gulke says the stars had been aligning in the grain markets for some time.

He observed a paradigm shift happening in the way the U.S. did business in the world in August 2024, even before President Trump was elected.

“The tariffs and all that just added to the fact that we want people to buy more from us. We want a level playing field and we’re going to do more internally.”

He says Trump administration trade officials speaking at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum reinforced that agenda. “If you recall they said we need to do more domestic production and walk products off the shore, so to speak.

Sell people parts of animals, not the whole carcass, sell them ethanol, not the corn for them to make ethanol, and so forth. ”He says if adding value to raw commodities is kept in the United States money can be made by giving people jobs and selling more goods.

Gulke believes this is showing up in the record pace of U.S. corn exports which year to date now total 2.556 billion bu., up 31% from the previous year.

However, he thinks even the soybean market is starting to take notice of the record crush pace.

This helps explain the recent parabolic move in soybean oil.

Demand has been strong for all vegetable oils for use in global biofuels production, including palm oil and canola.

He says if soybean crush stays at its current pace USDA will need to raise its crush projection by 70 million bu. and would put ending stocks down to a tight 280 million bu.

Grains Surprise the Trade Making New Highs for the Year

Last week corn, wheat, soybeans and bean oil posted higher monthly closes.

The continued strength and new highs for the year in the month of March have been contrary to what many in the market were expecting he points out. “We’re three months into the year and the insurance has passed. Pretty interesting. And I’ve been around long enough to see this happen before. And it looked very bullish to me 18 months ago. It just took time to transition.”

Market at a Crossroad

For example, looking at a long-term soybean chart, he thinks the market is at a crossroads. “We’ve rallied now to the point where there’s a long-term downtrend that started four years ago. And if we can break that long-term trend, it says something truly has changed for the outlook of soybeans beyond $12. We’ve been to $17 before.”

He says the key is to be on the right side of the market when that breakout rally happens.

Gulke adds that weather could be another catalyst especially with the expanding drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Conversely, with the quick transition from La Nina to El Nino there could also be some areas that see a wet spring and planting delays.

(Gulke Group)

Should Farmers Sell?

Gulke says they, like many farmers, did sell some old crop prior to this rally for cash flow purposes.

So, scale up selling as the market rallies to meet cash flow demands is warranted.

However, there is still a lot of grain in storage.

He says most bankers that have met with farmers to secure an operating loan for 2026 are likely more focused on selling the farmer crop insurance to guarantee the loan, rather than requiring the farmer to have a marketing plan in place.

Gulke wrote to clients this week that in these volatile environments it is even more difficult to know when the top is in the grain markets and when you should be selling grain or forward pricing new crop bushels.

He says now that the February crop insurance guarantees have been set if the market is concerned about not having enough soybeans, wheat or corn, then prices need to go up to curb demand, or farmers will switch acres last minute.

Acreage Battle?

Corn acreage was already expected to be down and with higher fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran.

Add to that the possibility of China buying another 8 million metric tons of old crop soybeans at the April summit in Beijing and Gulke says that could fuel a late acreage battle.

However, currently he says the market is indicating it does care.

“I did an analysis and with the rise in corn prices since the first of the year, we’ll say, we’ve gained about 40 cents in corn, so about $80 an acre in corn and we’re at about $50 in soybeans. So, corn has not lost its impetus to want to hold those corn acres.”

Gulke doesn’t think the higher fertilizer prices will make a big difference on corn acreage.

“A lot of that fertilizer was bought ahead of time and if you didn’t get it all bought the market just gave you money in the price to help offset that delta increase in fertilizer by maybe a factor of two. I don’t think the cost of fertilizer and nitrogen went up $40 an acre.”

On his own farm Gulke has changed some acres around and is planting more soybeans this year. “Soybeans now, to me, are about a $40 an acre better deal than what corn is. A lot of people won’t agree with that, but that’s how we farm, and it works for us.”

For more information or to attend the Gulke Group’s annual seminar at the end of this month you can email Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Money Pit Deepens as Consolidation Soars, Warns Arkansas Farmer

Tue, 03 Mar 2026 12:57:35 GMT

The bare-bones numbers tell a startling tale. The steady exodus of farmers from U.S. agriculture.

“Stay in or get out while there is something left?” asks producer Kenneth Graves. “It’s now a money pit, and it shouldn’t be that way.”

“There are plenty of guys that barely survived this year, but things could be even worse this same time next year. That’s plain talk. I don’t want guys trapped in a repeat scenario, but we’re on a one-way street. I don’t want to just go along and pretend.”

Let no scab form, he insists. “Don’t put your head in the sand. Look at what’s happening and deal with it.”

The past decade of ag statistics and present rut, Graves contends, indicate a tough row to hoe: Age, acres, expenses, commodities, carryover, bankruptcies, and much more. “I’d love to be wrong, but I don’t see crop prices going up or inputs going down. Better have a plan and a sense of urgency.”

Crazy High
Chairman of the Arkansas Rice Growers Association , Graves, 71, says rice is a barometer for the overall row crop industry.

“Since 2012, total acreage hasn’t dropped drastically,” Graves explains, “but the number of guys selling out or walking away from farming is crazy high.

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

“Back in August of 2025, we started hearing serious talk from bankers that maybe 30 to 40 percent of their farmers might not be in agriculture in 2026. Just the possibility is incredible and tells you how serious things are. I started looking at the ag census and the rice statistics, just from the past 15 years, and they are flat-out scary.”

“You don’t have to be an economist to see we are motoring toward almost unimaginable levels of consolidation. Since 2012, total acreage hasn’t dropped drastically, but the number of guys selling out or walking away from farming is crazy high.”

In 2012, across the U.S., 5,591 rice farms (mainly in Arkansas, California, Texas, Louisiana, Missouri, and Mississippi) operated on 2,693,759 acres. By 2022 , the numbers downshifted to 3,824 rice farms and 2,279,958 total acres. “That’s a major change in the amount of individual farms, but the acreage is very similar.”

Specifically, by state from 2012 to 2022, Arkansas dropped from 2,345 rice farms and 1,285,381 acres to 1,607 and 1,125,866. California: 1,392 rice farms and 561,968 acres to 724 and 738,068. Louisiana: 822 rice farms and 395,063 acres to 736 and 435,266. Missouri: 386 rice farms and 174,559 acres to 248 and 152,285. Texas: 364 rice farms and 134,189 acres to 289 and 193,438. Mississippi: 259 rice farms and 129,405 acres to 188 and 88,106.

“Consolidation on rice farms is where we’re at with all row crops. Ask yourself where it stops and what that means for national food security. And those are questions we better all be asking.”

“Don’t put your head in the sand. Look at what’s happening and deal with it,” Graves says.

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

Riding shotgun with consolidation issues, Graves points to demographics: farmer age. The average age of a U.S. grower is 58 , and 40% of growers are over 65 years old.

“Do the math. A bunch of older guys naturally are fixing to get out. Where are those acres going? With the way things stand, that’s a pretty uncomfortable question.”

Nobody Left
Bitter irony: The highest yields in world history don’t equate to gain.

“I hope a market comes in and a big buyer starts grabbing everything up a storm. Hope and reality are two different things,” Graves emphasizes. “Right now, with these inputs and commodity prices, even a record crop can come short on profit.”

Graves, 71, says rice is a barometer for the overall row crop industry.

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

He points to a hanging question: What to do?

First, he recommends an acreage cut for rice growers. (Early estimates suggest a major rice reduction in Arkansas acreage and nationwide acreage.)

“I admit this is a self-help quick fix, but it’d be a start to the supply and demand issue. There are guys on zero grade that can’t switch to another crop, but if you can, to me it’s a must to try and right the ship.”

“In 2025, there were 1.25 million acres planted in Arkansas and the crop was a little under the state record yield. Meanwhile, we still had 9-10 million bushels carryover from the 2024 crop. So, the price is not going to be very good this year again. I believe we need to take out significant rice acres and replace those with whatever loses the least amount of money on that particular piece of ground.”

Second, Graves insists on new blood in the rows. “I don’t claim to have the answers, but I know that as an industry, we’ve got to work harder than ever to make this an issue that wakes up politicians. It’s got to be made easier for guys to get in—and I’m talking about young guys without deep pockets or family connections.”

“I’d love to be wrong,” Graves says, “but I don’t see crop prices going up or inputs going down. Better have a plan and a sense of urgency.”

(Photo by Chris Bennett)

The raw numbers paint an accurate picture, he says. “I’m not a dinosaur, because these are legitimate concerns for farmers today and the next generation. No, I don’t have instant solutions, but I’m saying what people are thinking.”

“We have a national ag census every five years,” Graves adds. “The next one is due in 2027. Who genuinely believes those numbers won’t be ugly? How much more consolidation until there’s basically nobody left?”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

When Conservation Backfires: Landowner Defeats Feds in Mindboggling Private Property Case

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing

Farm Alarm: 8,000-acre Grower Considers Cuts, Doubts Midwest Corn-Soybean Monolith

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 12:07:19 GMT

Time to pull the handbrake. In November 2025, Ron Robbins placed 8,000 acres of farmland on the scales, spurred by two successive years of financial strain. He dropped grading categories atop his corn and soybean acres for a tale-of-the-tape judgement. Keep, improve, or cull.

“Call it a crossroads or breaking point, but traditional row crop farms are in serious trouble, and I believe the agriculture industry has gotten complacent,” Robbins says. “If you don’t step back now and take a detailed look at your acres, it could be a terribly costly mistake that I might call blind ambition.”

Nailing Numbers
In 2025, Robbins’ end-of-year crop inventory value was $1.3 million less than his end-of-year value in 2023. “We had good yields and good prices in 2023. We had decent yields and horrible prices in 2024. We had terribly challenging weather, horrible yields, and horrible prices in 2025.”

“The crop math is extremely difficult, and then who’s to say things will get better, stay the same, or get worse? After this past season in 2025, I wasn’t going to put my head in the sand and hope. It was time for a hard look at each farm, each field, our process, and how we can improve going into 2026 and beyond.”

“We now have a concrete framework to justify cutting acres if needed,” Robbins says. “It’s preparation regardless of what happens next year.”

(Photo by Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor)

A skip from the east end of Lake Ontario, Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor is tucked in the relative flats of the Lake Plain region in Jefferson County, New York. The overall operation includes 1,600 dairy cows, trucking, ag tourism, and 8,000 acres of corn silage, corn grain, soybeans, wheat, and hay.

Scattered across a 20-mile radius from his main headquarters, Robbins’ field sizes are small, averaging 40-50 acres, and soil diversity is extremely diverse, ranging from well-drained loamy limestone to heavy clay. Despite diminutive size, it’s not unusual for a single field to contain four distinct soil types—contributing to a complicated management dance.

“We’ve got feed hitting blacktop. We’ve got manure hitting blacktop. We’ve got labor hitting blacktop. It’s expensive, period, and the tiniest factors are big deals,” says Robbins. “Spread manure; plant crops; and harvest hay, all at the same time. You better have the numbers nailed down.”

As he speaks, in January 2026, unharvested 2025 corn remains in many New York State fields. “Because of very late planting last spring and a very dry summer, there’s 15-20% of grain corn acres still standing that basically never fully matured”. It speaks to the crucial need to be timely at planting. Just one more reason we’ve implemented a grading scale. Fortunately, ours was all harvested timely.”

Time to call balls and strikes.

Adios to Guesswork
In November 2025, Robbins and his team gathered around an HQ table and shared a nine-course meal of farm data.

He placed acreage into four five-year-average planting date categories, alongside five-year-average yields: early, mid-early, mid-late and late. “We began considering each piece based on fertility, distance, and whether issues could be fixed with tile, lime, manure, or something else.”

First, Robbins noted 1,000 acres of top-drawer, highest-yielding ground—the earliest fields planted year-in and year-out, regardless of weather, between April 25 to May 5.

Scattered across a 20-mile radius from his main headquarters, Robbins’ field sizes are small, averaging 40-50 acres.

(Photo by Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor)

Second, he tagged 1,500 mid-early acres—accessible for planting and manure spreading in most years, May 5 to May 15.

Third, he identified 1,500 mid-late corn and soybean acres that generally are planted between May 15 and May 25, along with 1,500 acres of hay ground that must be harvested for hay silage in this same time frame.

Fourth, the late bunch, i.e., all acres planted after May 25, typically poorly-drained and the furthest away from the main farm. “These are acres we will focus on for improvements where possible, and if not possible, we’ll seed them to a grass hay crop for heifer forage or consider dropping the land.”

The result?

He’ll fallow 400 acres in 2026, designating it for improvements, including pushing back brush rows and tree lines, tile drainage, ditch cleaning, heavy manure applications, and planting fall ryegrass or wheat or triticale.

Additionally, of approximately 4,700 total corn and soybean acres, he’ll shift 500 (heavy clay soil) from soybeans to corn. “We are trying to figure out why our heavy clay soils struggle to produce decent soybean yields, but seem to produce strong corn yields each year.”

“We now have a plan in place and we can match corn variety to acres better than ever. I don’t want my employees guessing about anything. We’ve got seed varieties designated for each category. For example, it’ll be 98-day to 102-day corn in the early category. If we get to May 5 and those acres aren’t planted, we move 94-day to 98-day corn. Again, no guessing.”

“Putting our acreage in these classifications is our first move, and we’ll make tighter adjustments as we go along,” Robbins continues. “One thing we won’t do is increase our acres because we’re maxed out. Maybe there’s nothing worse than taking on land you can’t manage properly. However, we now have a concrete framework to justify cutting acres if needed. It’s preparation regardless of what happens next year.”

(For more on producers considering acreage cuts, see: Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026 )

“We’re categorizing acres according to data,” Robbins adds. “All farms have tons of data, and so much of it goes unused, but right now row crop profitability is beyond tough, and we’re done with leaving our data untouched. The details are what matter. Who’s to say this downturn in the row crop economy won’t continue?”

Translated: Robbins is acting now in case the row crop rut becomes agriculture’s new normal.

Through a Glass Darkly
Good, bad, and ugly, fourth-generation Robbins doesn’t mince words.

“I’m very worried about the future of row crop agriculture, particularly out in the Midwest. For guys married to corn and soybeans, without diversity otherwise, that means all your eggs are in one basket. For the past several decades, the blueprint on many of those operations has been a focus on growth and getting bigger, but that may have meant losing sight of the true picture. Bigger is only better if timeliness and profitability make sense.”

“Call it a crossroads or breaking point, but traditional row crop farms are in serious trouble, and I believe the agriculture industry has gotten complacent,” Robbins says.

(Photo by Robbins Grain & North Dairy Harbor)

“Growth should mean a lot of things besides buying equipment or adding land,” Robbins notes. “It should equally mean adding a side business, increasing efficiency, improving profitability and, maybe most importantly, learning from mistakes by keeping your head up and looking at what’s coming or how things are changing.”

“Personally, I believe row crops are at a fork in the road,” Robbins concludes. “Every single farmer out there has a different management situation on their land, but my encouragement is to step back, take a hard look, analyze your acres in a systematic way like you’ve never done before, and determine what is best for long-term profitability, no matter how difficult the choices. Assume nothing, because the future of farming is very tough to see right now.”

For more from Chris Bennett (@ChrisBennettMS or cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

Farmland Shock: Georgia Grower Drops 3,000 Acres, Warns of Unplanted Ground in 2026

Sticky Fingers: USDA Fraudster Steals $200M in Stunning Scam

Government Threatens Seizure of 85-Year-Old’s Entire Farm for Irrigating Wrong Field

Frontier Justice: Cowboy Posse Corners Deer Poacher in Buck-Wild Bust

Water Witch Keeps Dowsing Tradition Alive on Nebraska Farmland

Family Farm Wins Historic Case After Feds Violate Constitution and Ruin Business

County Shuts Down 15-Yr-Old’s Bait Stand on Family Farm, Threatens Daily Fines

Corn and Cocaine: Roger Reaves and the Most Incredible Farm Story Never Told

How the Deep State Tried, and Failed, to Crush an American Farmer

Game of Horns: Iowa Poacher’s Antler Addiction Leads to Historic Bust

Ghost Cattle: $650M Ponzi Rocks Livestock Industry, Money Still Missing