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Cattle Digest Cattle on Feed but Will The Market Retest the Highs? Can Hogs Hold?

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 15:54:28 GMT

Livestock are higher Monday morning with corn and wheat trying to hold gains and soybeans lower.

Cattle Bounce After Holding Support and a Wild NWS Ride on Friday
Cattle futures are higher on Monday after a volatile session on Friday.

Joe Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the futures plunged with feeders touching limit down after around 10:00 am Central Time.

The selloff came on fears of USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins announcing the reopening of the Southern border to Mexican cattle imports while at at the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility in Texas to curb NWS.

When Rollins didn’t announce a reopening the market quickly rebounded he says. “I still think it’s kind of an AI generated program that caught Rollins speaking at 11:00 am.”

The good news is the market found good support at $243 on June live cattle, a mark that is being eyed by fund and algorithm traders.

“So we did hold that which was nice to see so found some support. When you have a market that is that overbought for that long unfortunately your sell-offs can be kind of pent up to a certain degree,” he explains.

Rollins in Arizona This Friday
Rollins is expected to be in Arizona this Friday and so he is fearful it could produce the same type of volatile action in the cattle market.

“You know, I thought I had heard her say we’re not going to do anything unless we can get some of those cases further away from any border of the U.S. But I’m unfortunately I’m fearful the market’s going to have a little bit of a leery feel on Friday.”

He adds the numbers coming through the border may be much smaller than feared after the border has been closed for a year now.

“The traders they just like to feed off of those headline and unfortunately we just can’t put that to rest until we get some kind of a hard headline basically with it but that’s who knows what she’s going to say but the market’s going to be anticipating or maybe not even anticipating just trading that the fact that she’s there on Friday again,” he says.

Cattle on Feed Friendly
The USDA Cattle on Feed Report was friendly with the on feed number at 99.5% of a year ago, placements at 92.7% and marketings at 94.5%.

The placements number was the second lowest for March since the series began in 1996, so bullish overall.

He says, “This is basically this is going to calm the market down a little bit from Friday’s episodes and basically say hey we still have a generally historically tight supply here for a while now. So that’s the basic take-home message. The on feed there’s nothing huge in it you see the numbers continuing to grow in the North which is not a huge surprise we have the feed around here we grow.

The steer to heifer quarterly breakout showed steers at 63% of the total and heifers the balance, down 1%.

Kooima says the data backs that up but the drought map may change that.

“It’s like a slow progression like this whole cycle has been going on here the last few years anyway. So that’s just the progression of the heifer retention moving forward too and how we’re going to rebuild this herd it’s just going to be awfully slow. So, yes a little bit is happening but it’s not happening in the places where it needs to happen,” he adds.

Cash Market Steady
The cash market was mostly steady at $248 and $388 dressed.

At first glance that is disappointing but Kooima says, “However, I’m going to twist that a little bit because we, yeah, $248 happening there late Thursday, then $248 at the beginning of the market on Friday as well. And there’s a. point there here at least in the North where they actually pulled that $248.”

Then the packers came back in after lunch and renewed bids at $248 and feed lots regained their leverage even with the break in the futures.

“So some of the guys that passed the $248 in the morning were feeling a little bit oh no we missed what happened here but they were luckily able to get that towards the end of the day. So, it’s kind of one of those psychological yes $248 wasn’t the best but it came after the huge collapse in the futures which tells you the numbers are tight,” he says.

Is the High In the Cattle Market?
Still there are many in the trade saying the highs are in on the futures as confirmed by last week’s lower weekly closes.

So the market, according to Kooima, will need some bullish news in the form of higher cash to retest or take out those record highs scored last Tuesday.

The other key will be whether or not beef demand stays strong.

Is Beef Demand Holding?
Kooima says that is a tough subject but he says some of the higher priced cuts have been coming down in price while ground beef has been slowly grinding higher.

“The basic principle of demand is that if you have a product, you keep inching up that price higher and higher and higher because it’s moving. It’s moving. You’re going to retract the prices when you see the lack of movement. Two weeks ago, we had ground beef at all times high, which would tell you that things are great but last week we did have to backpedal just a little bit,” he explains.

That tells him that there is some push back especially as this is the best time of the year for demand.

“How I view it is that we’ve maybe reached a price point now where these consumers are trading down proteins,” he adds.

Hogs Bounce But Can They Hold?
Lean hog futures are higher after nine lower sessions and new lows for the move. So will the bounce hold?

Kooima says, “When I write down the product, the cutout level every day in the cash, Friday, it jumped out a little bit more that, okay, You have the cutout closing over 99 cents late Friday. And you have June. within a few dollars of it. July and August have a little bit of a premium, but where is our premium for these summer months? Historically, we always go into tighter numbers, just even on a normal year. But this year we’re dealing with all that disease issues. So I guess I’m going to look at a price point better than where we’re at right now. Where’s our premium? Let’s get those premiums back in those summer months.”

He says chart wise the market finished a three-wave theory to the downside.

“The first break was about $7 back a few months ago. Middle break was about $9, and this last one was about $7 as well. So hopefully we’re seeing a little bit of a technical action here where we can push this market up a little bit.”

He says the key is for slaughter to start slowing down and responding to the increase in disease being reported.

His theory is when disease hit six to eight months ago the large players did a great job of backfilling with Canadian isoweans.

Corn, Wheat Higher and Soybeans Lower
Grain markets continue to see wheat pulling up the corn due to weather concerns in hard red winter wheat areas ranging from drought to frost over the weekend.

However, corn may have a difficult time building on last week’s higher week as planter get rolling.

Plus, Kooima says with last week’s peace talks with Iran the funds decided to blow out of a good chunk of their long position.

“You know, they got out of quite a bit, 50, 60,000 on both sides of the beans and the corn. So, but yeah, it’s a big, long growing season
here in front of us,” he says.

However, if crude oil prices stay high it will lead to inflation which may bring some funds back into buy the grains.

“I think that’s part of their backbone of purchasing the grains the way that they have. And they just respectfully got out of some positions last week, because, yeah, when you see the crude oil have $10, $12 down days, too, you certainly want to lighten up the load a little bit. But inflation is for real. It’s maybe not as big as what people anticipate, but every month one that comes out, it’s higher than a year ago. If crude oil stays elevated the way that it is, we know how long that takes to finally trickle down into the gasoline prices anyway. So then inflation to me is pretty real,” he explains.

Corn and Wheat See Higher Week, Watching Weather and War: Cattle Top?

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 22:09:18 GMT

Grains ended mixed Friday with livestock mostly lower.

Markets React to Strait of Hormuz Reopening
Ag and outside markets reacted Friday to the possible reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and some resolution to end of the war in the Middle East.

The stock market hit new highs, with crude oil dropping over $10, as the market unwound and removed war premium according to Matt Bennett of Agmarket.net.

Grains initially saw pressure in tandem with the plunge in the energy markets on Friday he says.

“You came in on from the overnight and certainly had some pressure you know beans trading down double digits, corn trading down four
five six cents and so you know definitely some pressure that was spilling over from a crude oil market that was down double digits most of the day. So, you know ten dollars lower and clearly we’re trading energy. We know we’ve traded energy but we’ve held to it more on the way down than what we have on the way up, which is the unfortunate thing that we’ve seen as far as corn and soybeans go.”

However, the grain markets closed well off their session lows which was encouraging.

Will Grains See Further Pressure?
Still Bennett says if crude oil continues to extract war premium the grain markets have more downside risk.

“Yeah. You probably could see some pressure here. My gut tells me you’re going to see pressure, which is problematic because, Michelle, the fertilizer situation, for instance, as we look forward towards 27, I don’t think we’re going to be straightened out enough to feel good about what fertilizer prices are going to be. When we look at some of the natural gas facilities that have been taken offline, just the disruption and flow of urea, I’m afraid you’re going to be looking at very high prices for fertilizer once again this year, particularly nitrogen source, which none of us can get around if we’re planting corn.”

He says it is reflected in the higher prices for corn in the far deferred contract as Dec 27 corn is trying to get above $4.90 which doesn’t work with $1,200 anhydrous.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking But Higher for the Week
Wheat saw some profit taking on Friday but ended well off its lows and was up for the week in all three exchanges.

Bennett says the move was justified with the weather issues the hard red winter wheat crop is facing as 68% of the U.S. crop is not facing D1 to D4 drought.

“I mean, there’s certainly a dire situation from a drought perspective in a lot of wheat country, and now you’re talking about potential freeze coming in over the weekend for a lot of people, and unfortunately, that’s not what you want to see for this wheat crop that’s already been through just a pretty tough set of circumstances.”

If the frost materializes over the weekend will wheat see a sharply higher opening on Sunday night?

Bennett says it depends on how far South the freezing temperatures go and how much damage comes as a result.

Corn Follows Wheat, Trades Weather
Corn futures ended mixed on Friday but well off session lows and were higher for the week.

The market clearly got spillover support from the wheat market and held the 200-day moving average support on Friday according to Bennett.

“Which was a good thing to see definitely got some support from the wheat market in my opinion this week but I think there’s also you know a little preemptive concern if you will about cold and wet conditions. And so obviously quite a few folks in Iowa are sitting, Northern Illinois, you get much North of me, there’s not been anything done, you know?”

He says it’s too early for a late planning discussion. “Especially with the kind of equipment we’re all running. Let’s be real about it. But if you get out here another 10 days to two weeks and you still have a wet forecast, that becomes an issue. And so in my opinion, there’s a little bit of that in the market.”

There is also some talk about drier conditions in Brazil for the second crop corn but he isn’t concerned yet.

“But again I think we’re pretty early in the stages there the NDVI maps look really good on that crop right now and you’re going to have to throw quite a bit of dry weather at it to really hurt it,” he explains.

Any losses in Brazil may be offset by a record crop in Argentina. “And if and if it’s a 65 to 67 million ton record crop Michelle, that’s bearish. I mean, there’s no way to look at it unless you would happen to lose 10 million tons off the Safrihna crop.”

Can Corn Build on the Higher Week?
Funds have been liquidating in the corn market but with the 200 day moving average support area holding and a higher weekly close can the market technically build on it?

Bennett says, “Boy, that’s a tough call, Michelle. I mean, the chart doesn’t look great. Let’s be honest. It looks like we’ve probably put a high end for the time being. But at this stage of the game, you know, it’s going to be make or break time over the next eight to 10 weeks. You know, what does this crop go in like, first of all? Second of all, how do we go into pollination from a moisture standpoint? Do we get it in later than what we want to get it in?”

He says that is important because the U.S. still grows the biggest corn crop in the world, eclipsing Brazil by three times.

“And so the markets can be paying very close attention to what happens here in the U.S. over the next few weeks.”

Soybeans Lower on Rising Acreage?
So if corn is losing acres did soybean prices fall this week because of the idea those will be shifted over to soybeans?

Bennett thinks that is the case. “And, you know, the last two weeks, corn’s closed lower on the week and beans have closed higher on the week.
And so I do think that some of this has kind of come back a little bit. There’s probably some folks that maybe decided to spread that somewhat. But at the same time, I’ve got to think that the acres discussion is something that people are looking at closely.”

He says while the market is buying it just yet if the forecast stays wet for a couple more weeks it will get more attention.

Soybeans Still Sideways
Despite the lower weekly close soybeans are trading withing a trading range held for a several week.

“The old adage that beans don’t typically like to spend a lot of times in the $11s. I mean, shoot, $11.50 to $11.80. You know, that’s been an area where the bean market seemed perfectly comfortable this time around. And so are we going to break out of that range? I think at some point
you do. The problem is if we see increased acreage you could loosen up the balance sheet,” he explains.

Crush is at record levels with over 200 million bu. crushed every month so domestic use is good and Bennett says the strong RVO number is helping.

Crush margins at $3 a bushel should keep the market well supported and basis has narrowed around soy processing plants.

Cattle End Lower on Border Reopening Fears
Cattle were lower on Friday but ended well off session lows.

The market tanked around 10:00 am on fears USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins might announce the border was reopening to Mexican cattle at a ground breaking for the NWS sterile fly production facility in Texas. When she didn’t make the announcement the market rallied off the lows.

Is the High In?
So it the top in the cattle market especially after the market made record highs and then ended lower for the week?

“I’ve thought the top was in more than once on this cattle market,” he says, “And then we come in here recently, of course, put a new high in this week. It looks like kind of a double top that we potentially have put in but at the same time, we know from a fundamental standpoint, this market strong as an ox,” he adds.

He says if the border does reopen to Mexican imports the market will correct as it frees those cattle up to come into Southern feedyards.

“And some people, quite frankly, are clamoring to have those cattle come in. Now, most people don’t like it, but if you’re in that part of the world, it’s been awfully hard to source your feeders. And so, yeah, I don’t know what’s going to happen. Once the opening happens, you’re probably going to see a short-term drop, but at the same time, is it going to fix anything from a long-term standpoint? No.”

Cash is King
Fed cash trade was mostly steady for the week at $248 live but a disappointing encore when there was some record $250 trades in the North last week.

However, if the market is higher next week he says you can’t rule out that the futures could retest the highs.

“Whether you’re talking fats or feeders, there’s no bargains right now as far as on the buy side. If you’re on the sell side, you’re smiling as big as you can smile. And so, you know, you see even in our part of the world, $250 plus fats. And I mean, that’s just pretty salty money, you know, for a lot of folks. And fortunately, it’s one of those situations that a lot of people have been waiting for this for a long time. And then they continue to think, hey, this is going to go away sooner or later. And it just hasn’t yet. And so could we make new highs? Yes. I think we can still make new
highs. Am I betting on it? Not necessarily.”

Has the Cattle Market Finally Topped on Fear of Border Reopening? Grains Fall as Strait Opened

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 15:54:43 GMT

Markets started Friday lower except for cattle but after 10:00 am Central Time the cattle futures tanked.

Cattle Bounce Early
Cattle futures were slightly higher early on Friday in tandem with the stock market soaring into record territory and plunging crude oil futures with word the Strait of Hormuz has been reopened.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says that provided and early bounce for cattle after two down days tied to profit taking but then the market crashed.

He says with prices at record highs the risk is high.

“We’ve got an on-feed report coming up with 100% on-feed estimate, and we are $50 higher than where we were last year on the same cattle on-feed. So we’re at some impressive levels here, Michelle.”

Is a Top In the Cattle Market?
The cattle market was overbought which triggered some profit taking and with futures tanking on Friday it will confirm a lower weekly close and reversal off of record highs.

So will that also confirm a top in the cattle market?

Varilek says, “That’s going to be the question here because it it looks like hey look at the time of year we’re in we’re at the time of year we can put a high in charts almost look like it you know we drove through make contract highs closed all the gaps and then what was the encore not much we drifted a little bit lower. So, for about the you know 75th time we’ll try to call a top in this market but it I don’t know that we want to try to do that it’s just the potential is there for it you know,” he says.

April live cattle futures did get over $250 and the contract was slammed with a bunch of deliveries as well which is bearish.

“We’ve got 20 deliveries and three retenders on the market so we are just seeing that starting to act a little bit more sloppy here,” he adds.

Line in the Sand for Funds is $243
The line in the sand on a technical basis for the funds to defend their longs is $243 on the June live cattle chart says Varilek.

“Funds don’t sell highs. They don’t buy lows. Once the chart starts to flip and their signals start to go off, whether it’s crossing moving averages, whether it’s coming off of being overbought, then they start to unwind positions. And it kind of sounds like around that $243 area on the June is
the spot that they’re looking at,” he says.

As of mid-session that low had held but for how long?

“There’s the old saying never be short June cattle in the month of May. Yes we’re in different times now you know it’s going to be wild as high as we are but that’s that’s how the market could feel so long story short $243 is a spot that I would think that we need to hold for that,” he adds.

Fear of Border Reopening
Fundamentally what has spooked the market is the fear of USDA announcing the border reopening as Secretary Brooke Rollins will be announcing the ground breaking of the New World Screwworm facility in Texas on Friday morning.

The fear is she could also announce the resumption of Mexican cattle imports.

Varilek says, “I mean, will there be an announcement? Will there not? We’re just kind of all hands on deck, kind of watching and wondering what she’s going to say. So going down for some groundbreaking of the facility. But you just would expect that she’s going to say something.
Okay. What kind of plan are we going to softly open a port and get some cattle coming across? And I think that’s what we’ve been talking about for a couple of weeks. So it’s not brand new, but I think that’s our expectations is that she will say something.”

He thinks the timing is odd as the weather is getting warmer which more easily allows the fly to migrate North versus the winter time.

However, it won’t be as big of an impact as feared due to the staggered reopening and the fact Mexico has developed its own feeding capacity.

“You know, they’ve been able to kill the cattle down there and ship the meat up here. So they may not be as eager to send near as many numbers as what they had planned before. So I feel like it’s negative to the market, but maybe not as negative as it probably used to be months ago.”

Cash Disappoints
Cash trade also developed on a light basis on Thursday at $248 live and mostly $388 up to $342 dressed, which is steady money with last week but a disappointment to the market.

“I mean, it was last week. It was these $248 bids and only one regional out there getting some $250, maybe a little disappointing. And I think everybody wanted that round $250 number so we could just feel good about it. It would have traded if it hit. Packers really dug their heels in and they’re sitting at $248. And now we have some sloppy trade this week. A lot of $248 starting to trickle around. I know several people have taken it and a couple dollars off of $250 is still a great price. These cattle are going to probably make some money up here because we’ve got extra days on feed. We’re making them bigger. Hard to say pass on that.”

Cattle on Feed Report
The market was also seeing some positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed report which is expected to be somewhat bullish.

The on feed estimate is 100%, placements at 93% and marketings at 94%.

“The South placements are going to be much lower and that’s, what’s really pulling this down. So, so that feels okay. You know that, Hey, when we’re. We’re still seeing the tight numbers, the on-feed number.”

Next month that could change as some of the feeder are being moved off grass and wheat pastures early due to drought.

Feeder Cattle Cash Index Hits Record High
This week the feeder cattle cash index hit a record high of $379.09 which is also supportive.

“That’s been strong. And feeders have been what’s bailing out this market. You know, that’s still the case.”

Lean Hogs Make New Lows
Lean hog futures are down a 9th day and making more new lows for the move but will the market find support soon on the charts?

Varilek says, “Hogs are trendy and it’s making a third leg lower. So Elliott Wave people, chart people, you might look at that and wonder, okay, so when it holds, you almost need to wait for that confirmation before you can kind of really jump into that market. Let it trend lower here. I think that cash and cutouts have been a little bit sloppy here looking for that to get better I think here rather soon.”

He bases that on the disease issues in the herd and eventually that will produce a marketing hole.

Grains Tank as Strait of Hormuz Opens
The grains are all lower on Friday taking out war premium with the Strait of Hormuz opening back up.

Varilek says, “Crude oil down $10 here today. Grains did put a little bit of premium on for that, and now we’re just taking that off. The equities are impressive how they can rally on back. So, as of now we’re feeling this war is going to stop or get better but not super confident. And wheat could not take out the April highs so it saw some profit taking and so is the rest of the grain complex.”

How Will U.S. Producers Maintain Business when New World Screwworm Invades?

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:59:34 GMT

With animal disease, prevention and preparation beat panic. Since New World screwworm (NWS) was last eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s, the tools and infrastructure to deal with foreign animal disease have dramatically changed.

Dr. Justin Smith, Kansas animal health commissioner and state veterinarian, during the recent Kansas State University Cattlemen’s Day gave an update on how Kansas and other states are preparing for NWS. The approach is designed to keep producers in business, keep cattle and products moving, and manage NWS in a way that protects both herds and markets.

He says the U.S. animal health officials along with USDA are planning a multistate, coordinated response that aims for consistency across state borders.

Smith summarizes the industry’s preparation to tackle NWS is like a three-legged stool. U.S. producers will be able to maintain business when NWS invades through surveillance, treatment and movement controls.

Surveillance: Eyes on Animals

The first leg of the stool is surveillance. He stresses early detection depends heavily on producers and veterinarians watching animals closely and reporting anything suspicious.

Smith emphasizes they would rather over investigate than miss a case.

“We want to make sure that we err on the side of having to say no on many occasions, versus saying, ‘Yep, this is what we got.’ Eyes on animals is going to be key.”

He was clear this should feel like partnership, not policing.

“They don’t want it to look like Big Brother coming over your shoulder,” he explains. “I hope we want to get this thing quickly.”

Smith explains that once a positive premises is identified, surveillance becomes structured around zones. The infested premises sit at the center, surrounded by an infested zone, an adjacent surveillance zone and a broader fly surveillance area.

The infested zone is 12.4 miles in radius from the infested premises. In this zone, there will be frequent on‑animal checks for wounds and larvae, plus enhanced monitoring in surrounding zones using fly traps and animal observation. The adjacent surveillance zone is another 12.4 miles radius and then there will be a fly surveillance area — an 124-mile radius from the infested premises.

Smith says movements out of the infested zone will require visual inspection for wounds and systemic treatment, including a treatment window of three to 14 days before movement plus a documented certificate of veterinary inspection.

He says the current Kansas response plan aligns with USDA’s playbook and neighboring states’ plans while taking into account specific needs of the Kansas livestock industry.

He stresses the playbook will continue to evolve, and state-by-state implementation may vary, but he says the “zone approach” will be utilized by all states.

Treatment: Limited Tools, Use Strategically

The second leg is treatment. Smith says that after decades without large domestic outbreaks, labeled options are limited.

From the fact that we haven’t had this new tool in our nation, in a large-spread outbreak since the 60s, we don’t have a lot of treatments out there that are labeled for this organism.”

To date, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved four products for large animals:

He cautions, “The goal is not to go out there and just habitually treat your animals just in case. We want to make sure that we’re utilizing these [products] responsibly. There’s not an unlimited supply out there, and so we want to make sure that it’s available for us when we do need it.”

On a positive premises, Smith says treatment will be mandatory and systematic.

“There will be a quarantine placed on that premises. We’re also going to require a certain level of treatment on that premises,” he explains.

There will be protocols for daily mortality disposal, so carcasses don’t become breeding sites.

“The last thing you want to do is bury an animal that has larvae and has the ability to advance.”

He says treatment is also tied to movement out of infested zones, with most animals needing prophylactic treatment before leaving.

Movement Controls: Targeted, Not Statewide Shutdowns

The third leg is movement control, designed to be precise rather than broad-brush. Smith stresses NWS is an infestation, not an infection , emphasizing it is not a systemic disease problem, but an infestation that still demands strong controls.

He says there will be movement restrictions if a premises falls into an infested region. To move animals out of that zone, there will be steps to follow but movement will not be completely shut down.

He explains some exceptions exist:

Animals moving directly to slaughter can go without pre‑movement treatment, but those animals have to be hanging on the rail within 72 hours.
Baby dairy calves must be treated but can move right away if treatment and navel care are documented.

He says Kansas is also coordinating with neighboring states to create “synergistic” rules, especially for cattle from higher‑risk states such as Texas. Cattle entering Kansas from recognized infested zones will face inspection, treatment requirements and at least 14 days in drylot containment on arrival.

NWS is Not a Food Safety Issue

Smith reassures producers and consumers that NWS is not a meat safety threat.

“This is not a food safety issue,” he says. “If an animal is presented to slaughter, it has a screwworm wound then it has the ability to be trimmed. That carcass will not be condemned. There are no restrictions on any inspected product for food safety reasons.”

Smith summarizes underpinning all three legs is a commitment to dynamic planning and continuity. He notes a revised USDA playbook is forthcoming and that “plans will be a little bit dynamic” as they learn more.

The core message for producers is clear: watch your cattle, report early, use treatments wisely and expect targeted movement controls — not blanket shutdowns — if NWS crosses the border.

USDA Announces Sterile Fly Production Facility Construction Contract

USDA and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) announced March 9 a construction contract with Mortenson Construction to build a new sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas.

This facility is a key component in U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ sweeping 5-prong strategy to fight NWS. USACE is partnering with USDA and will provide oversight for the contract, design, engineering and construction of the facility.

“The Army Corps of Engineers is an essential partner in bringing this facility to life and further highlights the Trump Administration’s government-wide effort to fight the New World Screwworm threat in Mexico,” Rollins says. “The Army Corps is the best in the business and their engineering expertise and proven track record in delivering complex projects will help ensure we can build a modern, resilient facility that protects American agriculture from invasive pests for decades to come. This first-of-its-kind facility on U.S. soil will ensure we are not reliant on other countries for sterile flies.”

A sterile fly production facility is a specialized biosecure complex where NWS flies are raised and sterilized using irradiation and then released into targeted areas.

USDA currently produces about 100 million sterile flies per week at the COPEG facility in Panama and disperses them within and just north of affected areas in Mexico. In addition to the COPEG facility in Panama, USDA invested $21 million to support Mexico’s renovation of an existing fruit fly facility in Metapa , which will double NWS production capacity once complete.

With ongoing support from APHIS technical experts, Mexico anticipates sterile fly production will begin at this facility in summer 2026. The new facility at Moore Air Base will be the only U.S.-based sterile fly production facility and will work in tandem with facilities in Panama and Mexico to help eradicate the pest and protect American agriculture.

USDA and USACE will break ground on this new facility later this spring, after initial planning and development meetings with the new contractor. By November 2027, the production facility at Moore Air Base is expected to reach its initial goal of producing 100 million sterile flies per week. After that, construction will continue at the facility to increase production with the long-term goal of producing 300 million sterile flies per week.

New World Screwworm Found in Newborn Calf 197 Miles from U.S.-Mexico Border

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:47:27 GMT

On Dec. 27, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) reported a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in a 6-day-old calf with an umbilical lesion in Llera, located in the state of Tamaulipas, approximately 197 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border.

According to the Texas Animal Health Commission, there have been no other detections in Tamaulipas or any evidence of established fly populations in the area.

To support a swift response if NWS reaches Texas, producers located on the southern border and travelers from NWS-affected areas should closely monitor animals for signs and promptly report suspected cases of NWS.

Read more about how to identify NWS:
The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm
Protect Your Livestock: Signs of New World Screwworm

A suspected NWS case requires immediate action, but it all starts with one thing: your call. If you suspect an infestation, report it right away.

The Texas Animal Health Commission recently posted this video explaining the process for producers to take if they suspect a NWS case:

What Are Some Key Concerns if NWS Crosses the Border?

Texas beef producer Donnell Brown says NWS poses a real threat to rural America.

“Fortunately, we made it to winter without a major screwworm infestation in the United States,” he says. However, as temperatures rise this spring and fly season begins again, I am deeply concerned that we could see an outbreak with devastating consequences for livestock and wildlife.”

Read more about NWS and winter:
Winter: The Secret to Slowing the Spread of Screwworm

Brown recalls the previous NWS outbreak in Texas.

“Compared to the last screwworm epidemic I experienced as a child, we now have far more effective parasiticides with extended protection for livestock,” he says. “Unfortunately, we still lack practical ways to treat or protect wildlife. After the screwworms were eradicated in the 1970s, it was 15 years before I remember seeing deer on our ranch. Today, deer are abundant and hunting has become a major economic driver for ranchers and rural communities.”

Read more about NWS treatment and prevention options:

FDA Approves Exzolt Cattle-CA1 for Prevention and Treatment of New World Screwworm
FDA Approves Dectomax-CA1 for Prevention and Treatment of New World Screwworm
New Technology to Combat New World Screwworm

Browns says if NWS cause significant wildlife losses, the ripple effects would be severe.

“Fewer hunters would travel from cities to rural areas, reducing spending on food, fuel, feed, lodging and other local necessities. This would harm rural economies already under pressure,” he explains. “The risk is especially high because fawns and many other wild mammals are born during fly season. Their wet navels become prime targets for screwworm infestation, making the potential impact on wildlife populations both immediate and profound.”

Read more about NWS and wildlife:
The Importance of Wildlife Monitoring for New World Screwworm

Sterile Flies Remain Key to Eradicating New World Screwworm

“The continued detections of New World screwworm near the Texas border are grim reminders of the serious threat this pest poses to our state,” says Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller. “Thanks to the efforts of USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and APHIS working in coordination with Mexico, its northward spread has been halted, and this recent case promises to be a one-off, for now. But to fully eradicate this threat, the bottom line remains unchanged: we need sterile flies. I said as much a year ago when I criticized the Biden Administration’s failed efforts to corral this pest — dollars don’t kill screwworms, sterile flies do.”

Under President Trump’s leadership, Secretary Rollins and the USDA have now committed to a historic, targeted response that will deliver real results.

“Earlier this year, I was proud to stand alongside Secretary Rollins in Edinburg, Texas, as she unveiled her comprehensive five-point plan , and again at the Texas Capitol as that plan was expanded ,” Miller says. “I will continue to support and advocate for federal efforts to expand sterile insect fly production and infrastructure, because this proven strategy is key to the long-term eradication of New World screwworm.”

Current information related to NWS is available on the USDA-APHIS website , including a current situation map and table showing cases within 400 miles of the U.S.

Your Next Reads:
The Battle at the Border
Preparing for the Battle Continues: USDA Shares Screwworm Update and Releases NWS Playbook

Water Fight With Mexico Leaves South Texas Farmer Unable to Plant Half His Acres

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 19:27:57 GMT

For South Texas farmers, the ongoing water dispute between the United States and Mexico isn’t an abstract policy issue. It’s a crisis that has reshaped planting decisions, reduced production and injected deep uncertainty into every growing season along the Rio Grande.

Brian Jones, a South Texas farmer, says years of shorted water deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty have forced him and many of his neighbors to dramatically scale back their operations. What once was a fully irrigated farming system has turned into a constant struggle to stretch limited water supplies across fewer acres.

“I believe it really starts to reach a crescendo in the 2023 crop year,” Jones says. “For 2024 and 2025, basically I’m only able to plant half of my farm because we don’t have enough water.”

Jones says the water shortages are not the result of drought alone, but of Mexico failing to live up to its treaty obligations. Under the 1944 agreement, Mexico is required to deliver water to the United States through the Rio Grande basin. However, U.S. officials and South Texas producers argue those deliveries have fallen well short in recent years.

“That’s exactly right,” Jones says, confirming that he has been unable to plant roughly half of his acres. “Going from fully irrigated to basically only being able to plant half the farm — and not even having full irrigation for that half — has been quite a struggle over the last couple of years.”

The reduced water supply has forced farmers to make hard decisions, prioritizing which crops and fields can survive with limited irrigation. Jones says even the acres that do get planted are often under-irrigated, increasing risk and lowering yield potential.

“Mexico has willfully held back water that they had,” Jones says. “That puts us in a huge shortfall.”

Hope on the Horizon?

Earlier this month, USDA announced it had reached an understanding with Mexico to release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the U.S., following heightened pressure from the Trump administration — including threats of tariffs if Mexico failed to comply. The announcement marked the most significant movement on the issue in years. But for growers on the ground, the news has been met with cautious optimism.

“I would say I’m both hopeful and skeptical,” Jones says. “I’m hopeful because President Trump and his administration really take the bull by the horns on this and bring the fight to Mexico.”

Jones says farmers in South Texas have long felt ignored as water shortages worsened, and he credits the current administration for taking a more aggressive stance.

“Under the previous administration, it’s like talking to a brick wall,” he says. “Under this administration, President Trump and Secretary Rollins really pick up the club and use it to bring Mexico to the table.”

Despite the agreement, Jones says trust remains an issue. Years of unmet commitments have made farmers wary of celebrating until water is actually flowing into the Rio Grande and irrigation systems.

“On the other hand, I’m still skeptical because Mexico has willfully withheld the water for a number of years,” Jones says. “Until it really starts flowing and they meet that full agreement of the 202,000 acre-feet, we’re still skeptical.”

Water Releases Reported to Start Immediately

According to Jones, Mexico indicates water releases should begin immediately, though geography and infrastructure mean the impact is not instantaneous for South Texas farmers.

“It should start this week,” he says. “It takes about three to four days for the water, once they release it in the lower parts of Mexico, to reach the Rio Grande. Hopefully by now, we start seeing that flow.”

Beyond the immediate relief, Jones says the water dispute highlights deeper concerns about fairness and competition. He believes the issue should be addressed in broader trade discussions, particularly as the U.S. reviews the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

“We actually hope it is a point of contention,” Jones says. “Not only is Mexico withholding water, they’re using that water to grow products we normally grow here in South Texas and compete directly in our marketing window. That creates a trade imbalance.”

Water Issue Could Be at the Center of USCMA Review

Jones says Texas lawmakers and agricultural groups are pushing to bring the issue into USMCA negotiations, arguing water compliance should carry real consequences.

“We’re hoping to use USMCA as a tool to put some punitive measures and some teeth into the water-sharing agreement,” he says.

Planting Decisions Uncertain

As planting season approaches, uncertainty remains front and center. Jones says decisions for the 2025 crop year will hinge almost entirely on whether Mexico follows through on its promises — and how quickly water arrives.

“We’re about 45 days from corn planting here in South Texas,” he says. “I’ll definitely get all my corn in, then switch over to milo. Cotton is the big question mark.”

Cotton planting typically begins in mid-March, leaving little margin for error if water deliveries fall behind schedule.

“All the details are supposed to be out by January 31, and they’re guaranteeing all that water by the end of March,” Jones says. “By early- to mid-March, we should know where they stand on deliveries, and that will shape how I plant this upcoming year.”

For now, Jones and other South Texas farmers are watching river levels, weather forecasts and diplomatic negotiations with equal intensity — hoping that this time, the water fight turns into real relief on the ground.

Did the Administration's Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 20:54:30 GMT

2025 has been a historic year in the cattle market. The tightest cattle numbers in 70 years laid the ground work for cash and futures prices to push to record and all-time highs.

From All-Time High to Crash
The peak in the cattle futures market was hit on Oct. 16. However, by Nov. 6, live cattle saw a $30 correction from the highs and feeder cattle futures set back nearly $70. The cattle market chaos wasn’t tied to fundamentals but liquidation by speculative traders on fear of policy changes by the administration as President Donald Trump announced a plan to lower beef prices for consumers.

Fundamentals Have Not Changed
Don Close, senior animal protein analyst with Terrain, says the market fundamentals that started the bull run in the cattle market are still intact.

“Certainly with domestic supplies, they have not changed in any fashion when you’re looking at the tightest cattle numbers that we’ve had in 70 years,” he says.

With high retail beef prices, there is no evidence of consumer sticker shock or trading down to other lower-priced proteins. Close says the beef industry has not seen any erosion in demand.

So, what changed? Analysts say it was the shift in market psychology in reaction to President Trump’s announced plan to lower beef prices for consumers on Oct. 16.

While the President’s announcement lacked details, the goal seemed to be to mimic the success the administration had in bringing down egg prices. With the prospect of government intervention, the live and feeder cattle futures touched limit down the following day as speculative traders who had been long in the cattle futures market for many weeks took profits and liquidated.

Jeff Hoogendoorn, with Professional Ag Marketing, says the managed money fund traders did not want to bet against the government.

“If you’re a hedge fund manager, you look at this cattle thing and say ‘Yeah it’s gone up an awful lot. We’ve made a lot of money,’” he says. “‘Now the administration’s going to be fighting against me. I think I’ll go find something else to do’, and you move your money elsewhere.”

Trump Administration Quadruples Argentina Beef Imports
Just days later, President Trump made an announcement to quadruple the Tariff Rate Quota for Argentina beef imports . That triggered additional selling in cattle futures despite the insignificant impact it has on U.S. beef supplies.

Patrick Linnell, director of market research with CattleFax, explains: “That change from 20,000 metric tons to 80,000 metric tons would represent around 132 million lb. And really, that comes down to about three-tenths of a lb. per capita to net beef supplies.”

(Allendale )

The move drew immediate fire from the nation’s cattle groups, including the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

Colin Woodall, NCBA chief executive officer, explains that with the current trade imbalance with Argentina, the administration needed to push for more market access in Argentina instead of importing more of its beef.

“Over the past five years, Argentina has sent over $800 million worth of their beef into the U.S. market, and they’ve only accepted $7 million of our beef into their market,” Woodall explains.

Justin Tupper president of the U.S. Cattlemen’s Association, adds that increasing beef imports was a slap in the face to U.S. cattle producers, and they opposed the move because countries like Brazil and Argentina have lower food safety standards and other practices that put the U.S. at a disadvantage.

“I think we want to be able to play on the same level playing field,” he says. “And I don’t think that happens with Argentina and Brazil. And again, I really don’t think it’s going to lower prices.”

Tupper adds neither producers or consumers stood to gain from increasing beef imports.

For more about Tupper’s thoughts:
South Dakota Producer Speaks Out About Beef Imports and “Product of USA” Push

Cattle Groups Tell Trump to Stay out of the Cattle Business
As a result, cattle groups and outraged producers warned the president to stay out of their business.

Woodall says: “We have worked really hard through the free market to be able to achieve the prices that we’re seeing. We don’t want government intervention coming in and messing with that and taking away these great opportunities we’re seeing.”

Tupper agrees: “It’s an industry that wants to work on competition and merit based, and we can do that if we make sure we don’t get to many outside interests — the government being one.”

Government Policy Pushes Prices Higher
However, two government policies pushed live cattle from $210 to $250 from July through September.

1. Increased Tariffs on Brazil. The U.S. increased tariffs on Brazil an additional 50% in mid-August, which nearly halted imports of beef trim coming into the U.S. Linnell explains, prior to that time, Brazil was a top importer of trim used to blend in ground beef.

“As of July on a 12-month basis, we’d imported just shy of 1.1 billion lb. from Brazil,” he says.

2. Closing the Mexican Border. The biggest policy change that tightened cattle numbers came from the U.S. closing the border to feeder cattle imports . Linnell says prior to closure, the U.S. imported more than 1.2 million feeder cattle annually. So, dropping the ban would have an immediate supply shock.

“We won’t see all 1.2 million head coming across at once but approaching that 25,000 head a week isn’t out of the question,” he adds.

(CattleFax )

While USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins has confirmed there’s no date for resuming trade, speculative traders are headline driven. Every time USDA hosts a news conference on New World screwworm, it tanks the market — especially feeder cattle futures.

The market has also been sensitive to rumors of the border reopening, says Scott Varilek, of Kooima Kooima Varilek.

“There’s this large supply in Mexico. That would be the one thing that would probably affect this market the most,” Varilek says. “So, we’re penciling that in.”

Trump Calls for DOJ Investigation
The latest attempt to curb beef inflation came Nov. 7, as the president announced on his Truth Social site the Department of Justice was launching an investigation of the nation’s meat packers .

The president’s announcement says he vows to “ensure these corporations aren’t criminally profiting at the expense of the American people.”

Packer concentration has long been a hot button issue for cattle producers and is at the root of R-CALF’s six-year lawsuit, explains Bill Bullard, chief executive officer.

“We have alleged that the meat packers had unlawfully colluded in order to artificially depress cattle prices, while at the same time raising or inflating the price of beef to the consumers,” he says.

Currently 85% of the U.S. beef packing industry is owned by four entities, and Bullard says this monopoly violates antitrust law.

“Both the producers on the beginning of the supply chain and consumers at the end of the supply chain were exploited as a result of this monopolistic marketing structure,” he says.

Read more about Bullard’s thoughts regarding the DOJ investigation: Is the Beef Market Broken? One Cattleman Says Yes

But according to Derrell Peel, livestock marketing specialist at Oklahoma State University, past DOJ price fixing probes and research have disputed that.

“While there’s a very small level of negative price impact due to the concentration of market power, if you will, it’s far outweighed by the by the benefits in terms of cost efficiencies that the large firms bring to the industry,” he summarizes.

Read more about Peel’s comments regarding the industry chaos today: Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Cattle Producers Say Trump’s Beef Plan Topped the Market
Some of the other aspects of the President’s plan to rebuild the cattle herd were met with favor, such as opening more public land to grazing. However, in the end, the president’s beef plan has wreaked havoc in the cattle market and outraged producers, according to Varilek.

“They’re mad,” he summarizes. “That’s all it took was just kind of the government shoving in there and wrecking [the] market. I think the biggest thing was that there were some claims that the tariffs were the reason that we got this high, and that is not at all the case.”

Linnell agrees the negative headlines have hurt the market, adding: “There is no doubt that these policy decisions are making a big impact on the marketplace. They also just increase a lot of uncertainty and volatility in the industry.”

Cattle Market Chaos Further Slows Herd Rebuilding
The loss in value of females just over the last three weeks has also hurt producer confidence, and according to Close, that could further slow heifer retention and herd rebuilding efforts .

“We’re seeing one more round where we’re going to kick that can down the road instead of actually retaining the females needed,” he explains.

Market analysts, including Peel, say the reality is lowering beef prices is like turning the Titanic — and the president’s plan is unlikely to affect much change.

“It took several years of of drought and other impacts to get us here,” Peel explains. “It’s going to take several years for us to grow our way out of this situation.”

Close says once the market refocuses on fundamentals, cattle could retest the highs.

“As crazy as it sounds today, I’m not yet convinced we’ve seen the high of the cash market, and I would readily argue that we get into next spring, next summer to see a cash market back in that $240 to $245 plus level. I think is entirely possible,” he predicts.

Cattle Crash Early Friday on Lower Cash, Fear of Mexican Border Reopening

Fri, 14 Nov 2025 15:54:07 GMT

Cattle and hogs were mostly lower early Friday with grains mostly higher ahead of the USDA reports.

Cattle Crash on Fear of Mexican Border Reopening
Live and feeder cattle futures were sharply lower on Friday after closing sharply lower the previous session with $9.25 limit down moves in the feeder cattle.

Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the funds continue to liquidate their long positions on the fear of the Mexican border reopening. There has been no announced date for resuming trade but he says that’s the problem. The uncertainty of when it will reopen is creating a risk off environment for fund traders.

USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Mexico on Thursday and announced a new sterile fly dispersal facility to combat New World Screwworm (NWS) in Tampico, Mexico. That headline garnered negative reaction in the cattle futures. Rollins says the border is not reopening but also says she is in discussions with Mexican officials to set a protocol to allow trade.

Lower Cash Cattle Trade
The other news melting down the cattle futures on Thursday and Friday is the lower cash trade in the fed market. Some $228 traded in the South on Thursday, down $3 from last week. Northern trade has also been lower with the volume at $351 dressed in Nebraska, down $8. Varilek says on a live sale basis in the North trade started the week with a regional at $226 but by Friday the bids had drifted down to $222.

“Producers have lost their leverage in the market and packers are using that to pay lower money. They seem to have enough inventory around them for the present time. Plus, the weights are starting to creep up and there are some packers talking about discounts,” he explains.

Brazil Tariff Talk
At the same time the Trump administration has announced they are working with Brazil on a deal to lower tariffs on some food items like coffee. While beef wasn’t specifically named Varilek says that is also a concern. “Brazil was our number one beef importer until we put the additional tariffs in place,” he says. Most of the imported product is trimmings which is blended into ground beef and helps keep those prices down.

Increased Argentina Beef Imports?
The White House on Thursday said the U.S. and Argentina “have committed to improved, reciprocal, bilateral market access conditions for trade in beef.” The Trump administration is looking to provide relief to U.S. consumers on the heels of elections in which Republicans suffered losses with an electorate increasingly focused on affordability. The were no specifics but it just adds to the bearish headlines according to Varilek.

Uptrends Still Intact in Cattle Markets
After limit up closes on Monday there was hope the cattle market was starting to bottom but now there is a possibility of lower weekly closes in the futures again this week. While there has been short term technical damage done to the charts, Varilek is still holding on to the one technical signal that is still intact, the long term uptrend line.

Lean Hogs Struggle
Lean hog futures, like cattle, started the week with strong technical buying and some positive reaction to the government being reopened. However, that market has taken back those gains on technical selling, plus six month lows in pork cutouts and the Lean Hog Index. However, the lower cattle market is also spilling over.

Grains are Mostly Higher Ahead of the Report
Grains were mostly higher ahead of the USDA reports at 11:00 am Central Time. Corn and soybeans made new highs for the move during Thursday’s session and to keep that going the bulls will need some help from the reports according to Varilek.

Soybeans, Grains Push to Near Term Highs on China Details: Is the Deal Really a Win?

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 22:03:41 GMT

Grains end higher making fresh highs for the move, cattle also end strong, with a lower day in hogs.

Soybeans Continue to Rally
January soybeans were $.19 cents higher Monday and made 16-month highs after technically scoring a higher weekly and monthly close. Fundamentally the market also got a push with more details being released over the weekend from the White House on the China trade framework.

However, Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, Inc., says the market is rallying on the White House interpretation of the deal which assumes China will buy 12 MMT in the next couple of months on top of the nearly 6 MMT it purchased earlier in 2025. However, he says China has not confirmed that.

Is it 12 MMT or 18 MMT Total for 2025?
If the White House interpretation of the agreement is correct that would equal 18 MMT of U.S. soybeans exported to China, if not it could only be 6 MMT of business. Suderman says that is a big difference.

“If it is 12 MMT of additional business than USDA can reach its export target on soybeans of 1.685 billion bushels. If not that could mean a 400 million bushel soybean ending stocks figure, which is not bullish by any means,” he explains, “and would justify the recent rally.”

How Will USDA Incorporate the China Sales Into Soybean Ending Stocks?
USDA announced it will be releasing crop production and WASDE reports on November 14 and will take its first shot at incorporating the China deal into the soybean balance sheets. Suderman says, “I think since the White House interprets it as 12 million metric tons a new business. I think they’ll probably keep their export target right where it’s at at 1.685 billion bushels. I think 10 to 12 million metric tons of new business is what it requires in order for us to hit that target.”

When Will China Drop the Retaliatory Tariffs?
The White House white paper also states that China agreed to lower the retaliatory tariffs placed on various ag products on March 4. However, Suderman says so far there is no indication of if or when China will lower those levies. “So far we have seen no evidence they are lowering the tariffs which is keeping private exporters from buying and so right now only Sinograin has bought U.S. soybeans for their reserves,” he says.

Is the China Deal That Great?
Suderman says he has concerns that after the 1-year deal expires on rare earth minerals that China will find a way to get out of complying with the agreement which will put the 25 MMT a year soybean purchases through 2028 in jeopardy.

While 25 MMT a year isn’t much more than China has bought annually the last few years Suderman says without the agreement he thinks China was on a mission to only buy Brazil soybeans and forego any purchases from the U.S. “This may delay that until the U.S. can get its biofuels production ramped up,” he adds.

Will China Uphold the Deal?
So far there has been no confirmation of language in the agreement similar to the “commercial considerations clause” in the Phase One deal that allowed China to wiggle out of compliance and purchases.

Market Awaits Supreme Court Ruling on Tariffs
The market is also awaiting the Supreme Court decision on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. Suderman says he was actually surprised China agreed to the deal with the U.S. prior to the court decision. He thinks the only reason President Xi didn’t stall was either his legal staff told him the tariffs would be upheld or his standing within his own country is shaky and he needed the deal to shore up support.

Corn Follows Soybeans Hits Resistance
Corn saw additional fund and technical buying but has also followed the rally in soybeans. However, on Monday the market likely got some assistance from wheat which rallied on news Chinese importers were looking to buy U.S. wheat.

However, the corn market is into stiff chart resistance and Suderman says it will have a difficult time getting through that area with the large amount of corn that farmers in the U.S. and South America still have to sell.

Wheat Pops as China Looks to Buy U.S. Wheat
Wheat futures ended higher on fund short covering but also got a renewed push from news Chinese importers were getting bids for U.S. wheat for December through February delivery. Suderman says if China drops the tariffs it makes sense that they would buy U.S. wheat, most likely soft red winter. This would be the first wheat sales to China in over a year.

Has the Cattle Market Bottomed?
Live and feeder cattle futures both ended higher Monday with triple digit gains still trying to recover after the $60 selloff from the highs in feeders and the $25 correction in the fed futures. Boxed beef prices were also higher at noon lending strength.

Suderman says the futures market is still consolidating after funds liquidated on fears of President Trump’s plan to lower beef prices. So, he says it may be too soon to call a bottom until technically the market can close above the October 29th highs.

Lean Hogs Make New Lows
Lean hog futures made new lows for the move as technical selling continued and the December contract hit a 3.5 month low. Suderman says the market has seen fund liquidation with lower cash values also dragging down the market.

Cattle Recovering But Is a Bottom In? Soybeans Make Fresh Highs, Corn Fails

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 16:12:24 GMT

Live and feeder cattle futures are higher to start Monday with hogs lower. Soybeans are extending gains, but corn is lower.

Cattle Recovering But is the Low In?
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher early Monday still trying to recover after the recent $60 correction in feeder cattle futures and $25 correction in live cattle futures.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while the futures are distancing themselves from last week’s lows he isn’t sure if all of the bearish news is factored into the market yet.

The fear of the border reopening to Mexican feeder cattle imports is still in question and Kooima says USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is in Mexico today meeting with her counterparts to discuss the New World Screwworm eradication and prevention efforts.

He says the additional 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports look like they will be suspended as both countries leaders have indicated as much, but there is nothing official on it yet. Those news items continue to loom large in the market according to Kooima.

What Do the Charts Say?
Long term uptrend lines are still intact in the live and feeder cattle futures but both posted lower weekly and monthly closes. Plus, there is a bearish flag formation on the December live cattle and January feeder cattle charts.

So, Kooima says that is also a concern for the fund traders and could cause more liquidation with a technical breakout.

Cash Could be Higher This Week?
Very little negotiated fed cash trade took place in the North last week according to Kooima. There were some sales early in the week at lower money in what looked like panic selling at $228 to $230 live and mostly $360 dressed. However, in the South the market tarted at $235 later in the week and by Saturday Kooima says there was some $237 traded in Texas. So, the trend continued to improve as the week progressed. As a result, Kooima is calling the fed cash market steady to possibly higher this week.

Meanwhile, the cash feeder market has softened in the country and the cash index is expected to be $3.50 lower today a $343.70.

Hogs Fail Despite Lower China Tariffs
Lean hog futures continued to see pressure early Monday and were barely holding support in the December contract at $80.00 despite the futures discount to the cash index at $91.19. However, cash has continued to fall and weigh on the futures.

The White House released details of the China trade framework over the weekend which included China lowering retaliatory tariffs established on March 4 which would be positive for pork exports. However, even that failed to move the market higher and Kooima says it may be because China is unlikely to buy pork with the glut of supplies in their own country.

Soybeans Make Fresh Highs
Meanwhile, soybeans are making new highs for the move as the White House clarified the lower Chinese tariffs on U.S. soybeans and that the 12 MMT China has agreed to buy is for the last two months of 2025, which is bullish.

Corn Fails
Corn failed to follow the strength in the soybean market as the last of the U.S. harvest is coming to market and looking for storage so there is some hedge pressure. Plus, Kooima says the corn market is running into stiff chart resistance in the December contract.

With a China Deal How High Will Soybean and Grain Prices Rally? What is China Already Buying?

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 20:59:10 GMT

Grains and cotton markets closed higher on Friday and for the week, with cattle lower.

Soybeans Soar For the Week on China Buying
Soybeans were higher on Friday on fund buying and news China was in to buy four more cargoes or 250,000 MT of soybeans, making seven for the week.

The January contract hit 13-month highs and soared $.55 for the week pushed by the trade framework struck between the U.S. and China containing soybean purchase commitments of 12 MMT for 2025 nad 25 MMT annually through 2028.

Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says he expects China to uphold the first purchase agreements as a goodwill gesture. It also makes sense for them to buy for December and January as they wait for Brazil’s crop to come to market. However, after that he is more skeptical about additional purchases.

Will China Stick to the Deal?
Hackett says no one has seen the fine print of the agreement to see if the deal is actually binding. “Yeah, unfortunately, this is one’s more of a wink, wink, trust us. It doesn’t appear we’re going to get this kind of clarity we had the last time. So it’s going to keep us guessing a little bit.”

However, it it’s like the Phase One deal the Chinese may rely on some sort of “commercial considerations clause” requiring they only need to buy U.S. prices are below South American beans.

“What happens after that three -month period, I think is I’m very skeptical about after what happened the last time we did a trade deal with them. And remember, when Brazil goes to harvest here in March and this next huge soybean crop is ready for export, I kind of wonder how excited they’re going to be to be running to our market for beans when they can buy a bunch over there at a substantial discount,” he adds.

How Tight Could Soybean Carryout Be in the November WASDE?
USDA said it will be releasing a WASDE Report on November 14 and if the agency incorporates the China demand he thinks that will tighten the balance sheets.

“I don’t think there’s much of an adjustment to go on on the yield side for soybeans. So if we’re going to get a reduction in the carryout on soy, it’s going to be how they manage adding Chinese demand and then taking some of the other exports off, which they certainly would do. My best guess is, I think we’re going to move somewhere between 230 and 250 million bushels on this next report,” he explains.

How High Will Soybean Prices Rally?
With China potentially buying 441 million bushels of soybeans the next two months Hackett thinks prices will likely rally to $12.

“I absolutely believe that the Chinese would probably be willing to pay a five or 10% premium on U.S. prices over the Brazilian price. That’s a reasonable expectation. That’s kind of the premium they were willing to pay for Brazil beans when they were in the reversal a few months back. So all things being equal, you know, that meaning we could push maybe the soybean market up to that mid $11, the $12 area before they might push back and say, you know, we’ve done enough for now. Let’s let things settle down here a little bit.”

Corn and Wheat See Late Day Rally: Is China Buying?
Corn and wheat futures started the day lower on what looked like some profit taking and end of month position squaring. However, late in the day the markets recovered follow soybeans but Hackett thinks there was also some commercial buying that is either front running expected Chinese purchases or outright buys by China.

“With the lowering of tariffs on ag goods as part of the China framework agreement commercial accounts were in buying corn, wheat, cotton and natural gas,” he says.

And Hackett thinks China needs corn. “We never really know what’s going on in China, you know, they, they tell us what their stocks are. And of course, we’re supposed to trust them. But when I look at it, we’re not seeing a lot of extra exportable supplies out of Brazil because of ethanol demand for corn base down there growing like crazy. Russia, Ukraine’s had two terrible crops in a row. And China had a terrible crop year this year for corn. I believe they need quality corn feed to be purchased,” he explains.

How High Could Corn Prices Go?
December corn was up $.08 1/4 and March was up $.07 on the week. Hackett says the market may continue to follow soybeans and if so corn could easily go to $4.80 on the charts before seeing much resistance or slow down in buying.

However, he thinks the market is also going to pushed by lower yields and ending stocks in the November WASDE. USDA said Friday it is releasing a crop production and WASDE report on November 14. Hackett expects yields could be lowered to the low 180s in this report. “And ultimately by January, we think we come under 180 on corn in yields, maybe 178,” he adds.

Hackett says with the additional China demand added in that quickly gets the ending stocks down to 1.5 to 1.7 billion bushels.

Wheat Also Seeing China Buying?
Hackett thinks the wheat market is also seeing some Chinese buying interest with the lower tariffs and as part of the China purchase commitments. The winter wheat futures were up $.22 to $.23 cents on the week as funds are also covering shorts and with spillover support from the higher soybean market.

Can Cattle Recover?
Live and feeder cattle futures were mostly lower on Friday erasing early gains and capped off the week with losses of $16.28 on January feeder cattle and $4.25 on December live cattle. From the high to the low prices the last few week the December live cattle contract has lost $25 and the January feeder cattle $55. So can the markets recover from that?

Hackett says, “The markets don’t need to recover. I think that’s an appropriate decline taking the on the on the idea that we’re going to take these 50% tariffs on imported beef from Brazil off the table. I think that’s an appropriate reaction and a reaction that should stick.”

He says political headlines surrounding the border remaining closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports initially supported a recovery but the market is also trying to price in Brazilian beef imports even though there has been no official decision on tariffs.

“I think the high is in the cattle market,” he adds.

Can Cattle Recover on Cash Feeders, Border Closure? Soybeans See More China Buys

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 15:09:54 GMT

Cattle futures and nearby hogs are higher early Friday with a softer tone to grain markets.

Cattle Futures Recovering on Higher Cash

After an ugly pullback in the cattle market futures are trying to recover for a third day on Friday according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says live cattle has a $25 correction from the highs with feeder cattle a $55 correction from high to low and so the market is due for some recovery.

The first strong sign is cash feeder prices are back higher at the auction barns which Varilek says was where the initial strength in the market originated, so that is encouraging. Plus, fed cash trade has started to improve as the week has progressed with Southern live deals at $235 on Thursday and bids renewed at that level on Friday.

Technically Uptrends Still Intact
Chart damage has been done on the correction with some analysts pointing to a bearish pennant formation on the December live cattle and January feeder cattle. However, Varilek points out that the long term uptrend lines are still intact.

Mexican Border Remains Closed
Politically related news was part of the reason for the selloff in the cattle futures most notably the fear of the border opening to Mexican feeder cattle imports. However, Varilek says with the Mexican Ag Minister saying there has been no date set for opening the border, that has taken some fear out of the market.

Market Watching Brazil Tariffs
Yet, there is still lingering concern about the Trump administration removing the additional 50% import tariffs invoked in August which would allow more Brazilian beef, particularly trim, to flow back into the market. Varilek says that is a development traders are closely watching because while Argentina imports are a drop in the bucket Brazil is a top exporter.

Hogs Try to Bounce After Getting No “Love” From China Deal
Lean hog futures ended mostly lower on Thursday seeing no specific mention of pork in the China deal and with lower cash continuing to anchor the market. Varilek says nearby futures were trying to bounce Friday morning on end of the month short covering but a more sustained rally will be difficult until cash stops falling.

Corn Consolidates, Soybeans Pause Despite More China Purchases
Corn was lower early Friday on end of month profit taking and some farmer selling while soybeans traded two sided.

Soybeans were up sharply on Thursday making new highs for the move and 13 month highs in the January contract after China announced a deal that included 12 MMT of purchases for 2025 and 25 MMT for the three years following.

Friday morning there was talk of another four cargoes of soybeans being sold to China of the Pacific Northwest or 250,000 MT. However, it failed to rally soybeans as Varilek says the market has reached some technical objectives and likely hit some resistance. However, he thinks with the tailwind of the China deal soybeans can move higher. “You know what they say, soybeans don’t spend much time in the $11 range,” he adds.

Soybeans Soar on China Deal but How High Will Prices Rally? Corn, Wheat Correct

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 21:24:33 GMT

Soybeans ended higher on Thursday with corn, wheat and hogs mostly lower and cattle mixed.

Soybeans Rally on China Soybean Purchase Agreement
Soybeans ended higher on Thursday making new highs for the move after some wild swings in the overnight session chasing the headlines from the trade framework announced between the U.S. and China.

The deal was reported initially to contain substantial ag purchases including soybeans and sorghum, but lacked any details. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent later appeared on Fox Business News announcing China had agreed to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans for 2025 and would buy 25 MMT annually for the three years following.

Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says once the dust settled the soybean market saw solid gains with January finally closing above the $11 mark.

“Watch to see how we close here. We went up against some pretty strong resistance. We’re above it now. We’ll see if we can make that close because you’re going to finish off the week and the month tomorrow. So key numbers to watch. You want to see it start November beans nearby close above $10.80 or better. And maybe then we got the start of something that’s breaking out to the upside.”

He says the soybean market has gone up 90 cents in about what, 13 days on this market. Yes, you reward the market with some beans at this point.

How High Will Soybean Prices Rally to Price in the Deal?
He says technically the soybean market looks good trading at levels not seen for more than a year.

Is 12 MMT and 25 MMT of Soybean Purchases a Game Changer?
To put it into perspective 12 MMT is equivalent to 441 million bushels and about half of what China purchased from the U.S. in the 2024-25 marketing year. However, it is better than zero so that was at least a victory according to Schultz.

The 25 MMT commitments are equal to about 919 million bushels, which is also no better than the annual soybean export totals for China in 2022 through 2024. It’s also below the 30 to 35 MMT totals China bought at the peak of their past business. There are also lingering question about if this agreement is binding or if China will be able to get around purchases due to commercial considerations like they did in the Phase One agreement.

How Will This Impact the Soybean Balance Sheets?
Schultz says this may not have a big impact on the soybean balance sheets because even if China buys from the U.S. it will mean less activity from other soybean export customers.

So U.S. ending stocks for soybeans could stay relatively close to the 300 million bushel estimate USDA released in the September WASDE.

Will China Buy Other Ag Goods?
Schultz says its possible China will buy sorghum and maybe wheat but he’s doubtful about corn as China is a net exporter of corn. He says if tariffs are lowered on beef China may renew some buying but he’s skeptical China makes big pork buys because of the low prices and big supplies in country.

Corn Corrects on Farmer Selling
Corn futures saw a correction selling and profit taking after hitting chart resistance but Schultz says more of the pressure came from an uptick in farmer selling. With the last 25% of the corn harvest needed to find a home producers are running into a storage crunch. Elevators in states like Iowa and Minnesota have stopped buying because they are full and already have piles on the ground. “We’re already seeing some elevators full and taking cash only on corn sales.”

Schultz also thinks the corn market was a bit disappointed there was no mention of corn in the China trade accord.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking
After a solid rally off of five year lows in all three wheat classes Schultz says the market saw some profit taking as it was overbought.

Plus, Schultz says recent rains in hard red winter wheat areas of the Southern Plains caused some selling pressure. “The wheat is for the most part planted. Now it gets the rain and now you go back to some warmer, drier weather after this should get the wheat crop off to a very good start.”

Cattle Bottoming?
Cattle futures ended mixed but were clearly in recovery mode for a second day. The news the Mexican border will remain closed to feeder cattle imports helped to spur Wednesday’s rally and there was some follow through buying on Thursday. Schultz is concerned that the funds are liquidating on strength with fear that President Trump is on a mission to lower beef prices.

Cash is King Right?
However, the futures have had a wicked correction off the highs by $25 on live cattle futures and over $50 on feeder cattle futures and got too far away from the cash fundamentals. Schultz says that was what started the rally and could help the futures recover at least part of the losses.

Lean Hogs Mostly Lower....Again
Lean hog futures were lower except for spot month December as technical selling and lower cash have continued to weigh on the futures. Schultz says he sees more downside risk in the market.

What Does the China Deal Mean for the Soybean and Other Ag Markets?

Thu, 30 Oct 2025 15:50:41 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were mostly lower early Thursday morning, except soybeans.

China Deal Contains Soybean Purchases
Soybean markets were slightly higher on Thursday but well off highs after the announcement of a trade deal with China overnight.

Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent told Fox Business News that China would be buying 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans for this year, likely by January. The 12 MMT is 441 million bushels and only about half of what China bought from the U.S. during the 2024 calendar year.

“Well I think it’s a recognition that we’re already well into the marketing year and anything that’s shipped out under these new purchases is going to be very late in November, December. They could obviously buy quite a bit of soybeans for December, January and Februrary and maybe even tail some purchases off into March and April. But they’re not going to buy large quantities by the time you get out there because the presumed record Brazilian crop will be coming out of the field then. But there’s a hole here,” he says.

Plus, China had agreed to minimum purchases of 25 MMT of U.S. beans each year for the next three years, which equal to 919 million bushels. “I’m a little skeptical about how durable that the latter number is given the overall trade environment and tariff environment, but it looks good on paper.” he adds.

So this may be a bit disappointing to the market. “It’s going back to where they typically would be. So the point is, we want the Chinese to be buying some U.S. beans. The Chinese want to buy some, but they’re not going to go exclusive in any fashion. In a really good year, they would buy 32 to 35 million tons, that would be a strong purchase year.

He says it was also important that the U.S. and China suspended the Section 301 tariffs on ships.

How Will the 12 MMT Impact Soybean Ending Stocks?
Brugler says USDA was assuming some sales to China in the September WASDE but he thinks the agency will need to make some revisions in their 300 million bushel ending stocks number.

He says, “They knew the Chinese had not purchased any new crop beans in August, which they normally would but other than that they couldn’t really single out the Chinese purchases.So there’s volumes in there in the WASDE. But I would expect the USDA would if we start to see these sales show up then I think USDA will probably bump up their overall export expectations a little bit. But if the U.S. starts selling soybeans to China, the U.S. will lose sales to other destinations. So It may very well be, the USDA is going to look at it as, okay, add 12 million tons to U .S. shipments to China, but subtract 8 million tons to other destinations. That would give you a net improvement in the overall export outlook.”

Soybean Market Reaction
The reaction in the soybean market was rather muted as Brugler says it was a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” play. The market has known about the deal for some time and there were many sell orders about $11 on soybean futures that were hit when the market rallied initially.

Other Ag Purchases
Brugler says there were no other specifics regarding other ag purchases even though sorghum was mentioned in comments by Bessent and USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins.

Brugler doesn’t expect China to buy corn because they are a corn exporter and for wheat it will depend on the class of wheat they may need for baking. Cotton is a likely candidate for purchases as well as sorghum for their liquor industry. He also is downplaying any pork purchases due to China’s current over supply and beef was not specifically mentioned.

Is the Deal Binding?
Brugler says the devil is in the details of the agreement and it is yet unknown if the deal will have a commercial consideration clause like it did in the Phase One treaty that allowed China to get out of their purchase commitments.

Follow Through Buying in Cattle?
Cattle futures rallied on Wednesday in reaction to the border remaining closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

Soybeans Fade China Buys Awaiting Deal Details: MX Border News Rallies Cattle

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 20:35:43 GMT

Grains ended quietly mixed on Wednesday, with sharply higher cattle futures.

Soybeans Fade China Buys
Allison Thompson says soybeans paused on Wednesday with January down 3/4 cent as the market faded news of China soybean purchases. China’s COFCO made its first purchase of U.S. new crop soybeans buying 180,000 metric tons or 6.6 million bushels through the Pacific Northwest as a goodwill gesture ahead of the signing of a trade framework expected on Thursday.

She says the market faded the news because it was already priced in after soybeans had rallied nearly $.90 from the lows a little over a week ago. “Yeah, it seems like we got the classic buy the rumor, sell the fact kind of scenario playing out in the soybean market today. Overall, it was an inside day of trading which really doesn’t tell us much, but at least we didn’t trend lower on the news. It just really tells us that the market’s pausing here before finding its next move.”

Many soybeans contracts are also running into chart resistance and Thompson says there has been a pick up in farmer selling or hedge pressure as end of the month and first notice day approaches on Friday.

Market Wants Details in “China Deal”
The market is now looking for fresh news to rally after optimism about a trade deal between the U.S. and China to be announced on Thursday. Thompson says the market will need some details of soybean purchases to keep the momentum going.

“Hopefully we get some details. And I think ultimately, that’s why the market’s pausing here. You know, we’ve come up a lot knowing that a deal is coming, but now whether it continues or we sell off a little bit, really depends on what that structure looks like. We have not had a lot of details in any of these trade frameworks from the administration,” she explains.

Thompson points that since the U.S. went through the trade war with China in 2018-19 there is at least something to compare to regarding a deal. “We’ve had other trade agreements with them where they have been held to making purchase commitments. So if there’s any type of wording that maybe rephrases something to the phase one or the phase two agreement, at least gives the trade something to go off of, and that might be enough to boost the market higher.”

However, if the framework is vague the market could trend lower until more is known she adds.

How Much Will China Buy?
Speculation is running high that China needs 8 to 10 MMT of soybeans for January and February but its unclear if that is accurate or not.

Thompson says, “Yes there’s lots of numbers floating around the trade on what that could actually be. And you’re right, their window is going to be that January, late December, January, February time frame, which is very similar to last year. And actually last year, we saw them do a decent amount of buying during that same time frame. So I think it’ll depend, you know, if we’re filling reserves, if they got South America’s needs to meet their immediate needs, there’s a lot of different things here stirring this pot. And no one really knows all the answers to it,”

Corn Sees Technical Buying But Largely a Follower
Corn has followed soybeans on the rally according to Thompson but has also seen some technical buying and short covering. Yet she doesn’t want to discount the fact that the market is also seeing some good underlying demand.

“The bull spreads are working which indicates there is some demand from end users. We know exports, even though the government’s been shut down, we’ve had some good export business. I don’t foresee that slowing down on the corn side, but also domestic too. We’re seeing ethanol ramp back up with good usage as well.”

Corn is starting to run into technical resistance on the December contract around $4.40 and then $4.50 she says. “Filling that gap from early July earlier in the week, it really gave the market some momentum, " she adds.

Wheat Sees Further Short Covering
Wheat futures held slight gains on Wednesday as funds have continued to cover their long held short position in all three classes of wheat. However, Thompson says wheat has also been seeing more solid demand particularly on the export front.

Thompson is also watching weather in the hard red winter wheat areas of the Southern Plains. The precipitation was decent for planting but there is concern about increasing dryness and how if could impact the crop later in the season.

“So watching the forecast and making sure they have ample moisture going into this winter is also going to be something on the trade’s radar, especially as we’ve seen the National Weather Service coming out and giving advisories for La Nina going into February. And that usually means that area does tend to be a bit drier. So we could have some ammunition in the wheat market here depending on what the forecast does in the months ahead,” she says.

Cattle Recover on Mexican Border News
Cattle futures closed sharply higher on Wednesday as the markets reacted to news from Mexico’s Ag Minister who suggested there was no date reached for re-opening the U.S. border to Mexican feeder cattle imports. The fear of the ban being lifted attributed to part of the steep sell-off and so confirmation of import restrictions helped the market to recover.

However, Thompson says there was also some technical buying as the market got oversold on the recent melt down. She explains there are gap areas on the charts she is watching for the rest of the week to determine if this is a dead cat bounce or if the market can build on it.

You know, normally when we see a gap, we see that get filled sooner rather than later. So if the market is going to be falling back here later this week, it might be an indication that the trend lower has started. But if that gap does remain open going into the end of the week, maybe we are going to keep pushing this market higher.”

Soybeans Ease Despite China Purchases: Cattle Recover on MX Border News

Wed, 29 Oct 2025 15:26:01 GMT

Soybeans and corn ease back early Wednesday with wheat, cattle and hogs higher.

Soybeans Ease Despite China Buys
Soybeans saw a pause with light profit taking early Wednesday after a nearly 30-cent rally in prices so far this week.

Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer, says soybeans have priced in the optimism about a China trade deal being announced on Thursday and also had muted reaction to news of the first China soybean purchases of the 2025-26 marketing year.

Sources reporting that China’s COFCO bought three cargoes of soybeans from the U.S. totaling 180,000 MT or 6.6 million bushels through the Pacific Northwest. Akre says these are a goodwill gesture by China. “They did something pretty similar back in the 2018, 2019 trade talks. They bought four cargoes basically the day before negotiations then. So this is, you know, it’s a part of their playbook,” he explains.

However, he says these are also value buys as U.S. soybean prices are now attractive with the tariffs being lowered.
“It’s also key to remember that U.S. soybeans are pretty competitive on the world market right now. Brazil knew that they were the only game in town for China soybeans for a long time. And the premiums and five prices reflected that. And US prices are still fairly competitive. And, you know, if they got the green light to start buying U.S. beans, I think that’s a good sign and could point to some agreement being made.”

Best Case Scenario for China Deal
Speculation is running high on the details of the China deal to be signed by the two presidents on Thursday. Akre says market analysts say China needs soybeans for December and January and the U.S. could fill that need at a minimum.
Akre says, “The market seems to be pricing in about 10 million metric tons. That’s what the rumor mill is saying right now. So that’d be about 360 million bushels.”

Akre says a portion of that is already figured into USDA’s 1.685 billion bushel export estimate in the September WASDE.
“But the U .S. balance sheet with 81 million planted acres and the yield that’s probably going to come in below where USDA is at at that 53 and a half, it’s going to be more limited by supply than it is demand. And at some point, prices are going to need to start rationing some of this export demand, in my opinion. I mean the balance sheet is already tight with where USDA is at with including their September stocks report its about 288 million bushels.”

And that ending stocks figure doesn’t include any cuts in national soybean yield, which Akre says are likely.
“We’re looking at ending stocks at about 250 million bushels and that’s the tightest level we’ve seen in several years and we’re $3 below where we were when ending stocks were that tight and the market really hasn’t reflected that. I think a lot of that has been some skepticism about what demand’s going to be, what exports are going to be,” he adds.

He thinks soybean demand is strong enough to support that lower ending stocks figure but that doesn’t suggest a $3 rally in soybeans because of the big crop in South America. Akre adds that even if China only buys 350 million bushels of soybeans for this marketing year, other export customers can back fill the difference.

Corn Following Soybeans?
Corn is also easing slightly on Wednesday following the pause in soybeans and Akre thinks corn will continue to be hinged to that market.

He doesn’t expect China to buy corn in the trade agreement but says if China would return to buy sorghum that would be very helpful for the corn market. Plus, higher soybean prices will likely mean a battle for some acres with corn.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat futures were slightly higher after a strong technical close on Wednesday but Akre says much of the rally has been short covering by the funds.

However, he does acknowledge that some of the agreements and frameworks announced this week with Southeast Asian customers, including Japan, are giving the demand bulls some fodder.

Cattle See Recovery Rally But Will Funds Use it to Sell?
Cattle futures are seeing a nice recovery rally on Wednesday after getting beat up the last six sessions on fund liquidation and concerns about President Trump’s plan to lower beef prices.

Akre says the market was also concerned about Mexico’s Ag Minister coming to the U.S. to ask for the border to be reopened to Mexican feeder cattle. However, he thinks that is unlikely and Reuters reported shortly after this interview that the Mexican Ag Minister confirmed he had spoke to USDA Secretary Rollins and there was no date for resuming cattle exports to the U.S.

He also points out that even with the crash in futures the fed cattle market was only down around $2 last week and early sales this week were near $230.

Soybeans Hit 1-Year High but How Much Upside is There? Is the Low in Cattle Close?

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 20:26:58 GMT

Grain markets closed higher on Tuesday. Livestock futures were lower except for back month live cattle.

Soybeans Hit 1-Year High
Soybean futures hit new highs for the move and 1-year highs in the January contract as the market continues to trade a China deal that includes soybean purchases.

Brian Grete, Senior livestock and grain analyst with Commstock Investments, says he thinks the China deal is nearly priced into the market.

“I think a China deal is priced in where they’re going to buy a significant amount of soybeans. We’ve heard that from U .S. officials, trade officials. And so we better get that deal done on Thursday,” he says.

What Kind of China Deal Does the Market Need to See to Push Higher?
When it comes to a China deal, Grete says the devil will be in the details.

“We better see some pretty significant purchases because significance is kind of one of those words that’s like good or whatever words. It’s all relative. And so we need to see something happen kind of hearing around 10 million tons possibility for early in 2026 as likely purchased by China. And we’ll see if it lives up to that,” he explains.

However, he says the rally in the soybeans is being fueled by money flow. “So, while the fundamentals do come into play, as long as the funds are willing to pump money into the long side of the market, there is more upside. But I think you’re going to need two things. You’re going to need China buying actively and significant purchases if you want to use what U.S. trade officials have been talking about and funds continuing to pump money into the long side of the market from a short -term perspective.”

Is China Soybean Business in USDA’s Export Estimate?
USDA’s export estimate for soybeans for the 2025-26 marketing year currently sits at 1.685 billion bushels. So is any of the Chinese business programmed into that figure?

Grete says USDA only used what they knew about export business the September WASDE and so the Chinese business may not be part of that estimate.

Could China Buy Corn or Wheat in This Deal? Are They Buying Soybeans?
Grete says that’s possible but a long shot. “I don’t think China needs corn right now, they probably don’t need wheat either. So, soybeans are the headliner here,” he says.

He doesn’t think China is buying soybeans under the radar either like they did in 2018 when the government was shut down and there were no flash sales being reported by USDA. “They’re telling the buyers to be quiet and not do anything until the deal gets done.”

January Close to $11 a Pricing Opportunity
The January soybean contract is closing in on $11 and some of the back months have exceeded that level which are a pricing opportunity according to Grete. He says the U.S. only has a short window to sell soybeans to China in December and January and so farmers need to take advantage of the rally before China turns back to South America.

“So, if you’re profitable on this rally, definitely need to be selling. If you’re close to profitability, but still a little bit underwater, probably need to make some sales as well and try to build a better price as we move forward through the remainder of the marketing year,” he adds.

Corn Follows Soybeans But Fails Technically
Corn futures have been following the rally in soybeans says Grete and have seen some fund short covering. However, the December contract filled the gap area on the charts left on July 3 and then closed below that level which is not a good technical sign. “I don’t think it has enough legs to stand on its own and lead a price rally. This is a soybean led rally,” he says.

With only 25% of the U.S. corn crop left to harvest Grete says the rallies may also be capped by hedge pressure especially as finding room for the last of quarter of the crop will be difficult with many farmers storing both corn and soybeans this fall.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat futures were higher in all three classes chasing the soybean market and seeing short covering as the funds were near record long just a month ago in the market. Grete says wheat needs to see soybeans continue to rally to keep the momentum going. “I think that wheat falls clearly in the same category as corn. It needs help from soybeans to continue higher. So as long as soybeans continue to lead to the upside, those other two markets will actively follow,” he says.

Cattle Futures Close to a Low?
Cattle futures ended mostly lower again except for deferred live cattle contracts but at least feeders closed off expanded limit down status. So is the market getting close to a low?

Grete says, “The longs that needed to get out of the market look like they’ve gotten out so the funds may be about done liquidating in the live cattle, the feeder cattle may have a little farther to go.”

He says fed cash trade was only about $2 lower last week with the 5-area weighted average at $237.89 but early sales this week have been lower at mostly $360 dressed and $230 live in the North. The cash feeder market has also crashed at livestock auction barns. “So the market is trying to re-calibrate,” he says.

Cattle Producers Upset
The selloff by the speculative traders has been mostly a function of fear of the Trump administration’s plan to lower beef prices and so cattle producers are upset that government interference was responsible for topping the cattle market.

“President Trump’s initial comment on Tuesday was that, you know, maybe the cattle producers, cattle ranchers are doing too well. And then he rescinded that a little bit and backtracked and said he wants to bring down beef prices without hurting the rancher. And so we’ll see. I don’t know where it all leads. It sounds like maybe they’re going to go after some concentration within the beef packing industry,” Grete states.

However, the fear of reopening the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports or lifting the tariffs on Brazilian beef also added to the concerns with key meetings scheduled for this week on both topics.

Lean Hogs See More Pressure
Lean hog futures were sharply lower on Tuesday with continued technical selling and lower cash values weighing on the market. While the futures discount to the cash index is getting wider it doesn’t seem to be providing support. “I think the trader will remain very comfortable at big discounts in the futures until we see some stability in the cash index and the pork cutout and we haven’t seen that yet.”

Grete says seasonally the cash and futures markets work lower this time of year and currently the discounts are not unusually large, so there could be more downside risk in the market.

Soybeans Hit Fresh Highs on Trade Hope, Pulling up Grains: Cattle Tank on Fund Selling

Tue, 28 Oct 2025 15:20:19 GMT

Grains are higher early Tuesday, hogs are mostly higher with cattle crashing again.

Soybeans Make New Highs For the Move
DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says soybeans made new highs for the move and January futures are closing in on $11, while March made fresh highs for the year.

The push continues to come from fund buying as speculative traders are pinning hopes on a China deal being announced this week that contains soybean purchase commitments.

How Much Will China Buy?
The key to how far soybeans can rally is tied to how much China purchases and so far details are vague.

In the last marketing year China bought over 800 million bushels of soybeans from the U.S. but they only have December and January needs as South America has the rest of their supplies covered.

Bosse says that means China may only need around 300 million bushels, which is a far cry from normal. “I see this agreement as a 2026 story,” he says.

Corn Follows Soybeans
Corn futures are following the rally in soybeans but may also be hoping for Chinese business as part of a trade deal.

However, the combination of strong demand and shrinking U.S. yields may be enough to eventually support prices and lower ending stocks.

Corn Fills Gap Area
December corn moved above $4.30 resistance and filled the chart gap left on July 3 at $4.32 3/4. A close above this area on Tuesday will be critical says Bosse to keeping the momentum going on the charts.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat futures in all three classes are also rallying with soybeans and corn on short covering as the funds were near record short in their combined position before the government shutdown.

The wheat market has also gotten a bit of a push from the announced frameworks with Vietnam and Thailand as they are top 10 wheat customers for the U.S. but also as there are hopes China will buy U.S. wheat as part of a deal.

Cattle Sell Off Continues
The cattle futures opened mixed but quickly saw selling pressure return as funds are liquidating their long positions.
That pushed the deferred feeder cattle futures to limit down the expanded $13.75 limits again.

Cattle Fundamentals Haven’t Changed
The cattle market fundamentals haven’t changed since the selloff began according to Bosse but with President Trump pushing his plan to lower beef prices it has caused speculative traders to head for the door.

News of the meeting with the Mexican Ag Minister in an attempt to get the border reopened to Mexican feeder cattle imports has also cultivated fear in the market as well as reports Brazil’s president has been assured by President Trump they would also reach a deal to lower tariffs, including beef.

Lean Hog Futures Try to Bounce

Lean hog futures are trying to bounce as the market has seen a sharp correction from the contract highs hit a month ago. Bosse says the futures discount to the cash index is supporting the futures are at least holding them up.

He says he’s been surprised the response to a possible China deal has not been more bullish for the market.

U.S.-Mexico Border Battle Continues As the Threat of New World Screwworm Intensifies

Wed, 24 Sep 2025 21:29:05 GMT

With New World screwworm (NWS) confirmed just 70 miles from the U.S. border , producers, government officials and industry leaders are taking action. Finding NWS along one of the most heavily trafficked commercial thoroughfares in the world from Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, to Laredo, Texas, is a red flag for the industry. Emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong safeguards, it’s time to plan for not “if but when” NWS crosses the border.

On Monday, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins confirmed protecting the U.S. from NWS is non-negotiable and a top priority for President Trump.

UPDATE ON SCREWWORM THREAT:

Protecting the United States from New World Screwworm is non-negotiable and a top priority for @POTUS.@USDA landed boots on the ground this morning in Nuevo Leon, physically inspecting traps and dispersing sterile flies after the detection of the…
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) September 23, 2025

“The southern border remains closed to livestock trade, and we are aggressively expanding trapping and surveillance,” she wrote. “At the same time, we’re expediting operations at our sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in Texas .”

On Tuesday, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins reported 80,000 sterile flies were released on “spot” and nearly 200 surge staff had been deployed to Mexico.

Thank you, @IngrahamAngle, for paying attention to this important issue. Due to multiple failures from our southern neighbors and failure to act in the last Admin, the devastating parasite New World Screwworm is knocking on our southern borders door. We’re not waiting, we’re… pic.twitter.com/ZO5Vx5oes8
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) September 24, 2025

Mexico’s Response To New World Screwworm

According to Reuters, Mexican’s agriculture ministry said there is no risk of adult screwworm fly emergence due to the early detection of the infected bovine, which was confirmed on Sept. 21. The infected animal was in a shipment of 100 animals originating from the Gulf Coast state of Veracruz, according to the statement.

Fly traps in northern Mexico have not detected a single screwworm fly.

U.S.-Mexico Border Remains Closed to Cattle Trade

The Mexican border closure remains a topic of debate. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 80% of ag economists surveyed oppose reopening the border to Mexican cattle due to screwworm risks.

(Farm Journal)

The border closure has created significant division within the cattle industry with producers, feeders and industry leaders on both sides of the fence.

“We have some cattle people that are glad it’s closed. We’ve got others who are hit pretty hard and are not happy about it,” explains David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and extension specialist — livestock and food product marketing.

NWS is a threat the industry can not ignore, says the ag economist with more than 30 years under his belt.

“I think this is the most serious problem the industry has faced since I’ve been a livestock economist,” he stresses.

From his perspective, keeping the border open with heightened monitoring and surveillance could have potentially been more effective than implementing a total closure.

“If we go back and look at data from the early ‘70s, when we had a big screwworm outbreak in the U.S. and Mexico, the border was open,” he says. “I probably would have leaned to not closing the border to begin with. I understand why you would want to do that, but I don’t know that it’s ended up reducing the likelihood that we’re going to get screwworms, and yet we’re paying a price for that.”

According to Anderson the economic consequences to the border being closed are:

Significant loss of approximately 26,000 imported cattle weekly
Estimated 18% reduction in cattle placements in Southern plains
Contributed to tighter beef supplies and higher consumer prices
Substantial economic hit to cattle feeders and ranchers

At this point, he’s quick to admit keeping the border closed is the best option.

When it comes to reopening the border, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist with Oklahoma State University, suggests the decision is not straightforward.

“Given everything I’ve experienced, it’s probably prudent to leave the border closed,” he says.

He adds any reopening should be “under very, very controlled, limited circumstances.”

Peel emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach with Mexico.

“We’re kind of in it together, and so whether it’s here or there, we’ve got to work together,” he summarizes. “We’re going to need to control it in both places. Otherwise, it’s not going to benefit either one of us.”

He also points out not everybody in Mexico is sorry the border is closed. For example, cattle buyers in Mexico can source cattle cheaper because the border is closed.

“Keeping the border closed does affect the movement of cattle south of the border ... it builds a backstop for cattle movement north,” he adds.

Peel notes cattle from Central America to Panama have increasingly made their way to the Mexican market, which validates NWS movement in Mexico and why recent confirmation has occurred.

“The longer this goes on, the more the Mexican industry will adjust,” he says. “It might permanently change the way the [U.S. and Mexico] work together.”

Texas Rancher Weighs In On Impact of New World Screwworm

Texas rancher Wayne Cockrell says the parasite’s entry into the U.S. is inevitable, suggesting that winter and colder weather might temporarily delay the spread until next April or May. Cockrell, who serves as the Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association director and chair of the cattle health and well-being policy committee, recently joined AgriTalk to talk about NWS.

“We would much rather stop this on Mexico’s southern border than our Southern border,” Cockrell says.

Mexican feeder cattle traditionally represented 30% of Texas feedyard inventory, he adds, but with current restrictions, feedlots are adapting.

“I think a lot of those feedyards have moved to the dairy-cross side,” he adds. “They have had to change the way they do business.”

Noting the broader economic implications of the border closure, 1.2 million fewer cattle for Texas represents “about two weeks” of impact nationwide, according to Cockrell.

“Winter and sterile flies is what we need now,” Cockrell summarizes.

Your Next Read: The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm

What Farm Equipment Manufacturers Are Saying About 50% Steel and Aluminum Tariffs

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 12:00:17 GMT

Farm equipment manufacturers have spent the past nine months dealing with tariff fallout and implications. It’s an effort borne out of sheer necessity — that’s because the various tariff levels and targets have changed faster than a Kansas prairie headwind during spring planting.

It’s why we talked with executives from a handful of farm equipment manufacturers to learn more about how they are managing the situation. John Deere, for example, recently went as far as attaching a hard number to the tariff pain: a projected $600 million in balance sheet impact for 2025 is the figure shared by John Beal, director of investor relations, during Deere’s 2025 Q3 earnings call.

On Aug. 18, a 50% tariff on all foreign steel and aluminum imports into the U.S. went into effect. That alone has had a huge impact on the companies building farm machines here in the U.S. and abroad, and it’s even restricting the movement of used farm equipment across the border.

Almost All American Made

Case IH’s Kurt Coffey, who serves as the companies’ vice president of its North America division, says the executive team he is on meets daily to unpack global trade developments. Case IH is in a good position overall, he says, with 80% to 90% of its machines produced in one of four U.S. production facilities, and 95% of its machinery base material (i.e. steel) sourced domestically.

Related - From the Factory to Your Fields: Where Farm Equipment Is Made

(Case IH)

“What we’re trying to do is scale across our business to where there are impacts in the short term, in the transitory period, and make sure that we continue to flow product so we’re a reliable partner for our customers,” Coffey says. “But it is anybody’s guess where this is going. So, we’re maintaining focus on the customer and our supply flows.”

That supply flow is worth the extra effort in Racine, according to Coffey, due to this fact: Anywhere from 60% to 90% of Case IH machinery is presold, so a new tariff today means a big, unexpected extra cost tacked on the back end.

“We’re executing on product that was sold three, five or even eight months ago,” he adds. “So, no comment on [financial] impacts, but we’ve continued to focus on how we make sure our customers have what they need as they’re going to harvest.”

Coffey doesn’t come right out and say it, but reading between the lines, it seems clear that Case IH has had to flex its creative muscles and figure out how to manage, for example, a new 50% tariff bill on a brand-new AF-11 combine that was sold six months ago. That extra 50% wasn’t part of the equation when the deal was signed, so who pays for it?

More EU Than U.S.

While Case IH has a large manufacturing base in the U.S., German-based manufacturer Claas is a different story. While the company builds its Lexion combines and self-propelled corn detassler machine at a 250,000-sq.-ft. facility in Omaha, Neb., four-fifths (80%) of its row crop machinery portfolio is built over in Europe and shipped to dealer lots in the U.S.

In a Trump Tariff world, that means significantly higher production costs for Claas, and potentially, the farmers that buy their tractors and combines. That’s because tariffs are taxes, and most companies will pass that extra cost down the line to consumers in the form of higher retail prices.

Eric Raby, senior vice president of the Americas region, Claas, says his outfit is actually taking on some of those extra costs.

(Claas)

“From an EU [European Union] perspective, and in Canada and some other major countries, we’re pretty even keel right now on where the tariffs are, and I think the industry as a whole has pretty much absorbed [a lot of] those,” he says. “We’ve absorbed a lot, as well. We’re not passing all of it to the customer.”

The new-ish 50% tariff on steel and aluminum is a different story, however.

“We’re still working [on that] right now and trying to figure out the implications, because that really is going to affect our industry much more broadly than just the tariffs on a country of origin for a specific machine,” Raby says. “We’re always looking for local [material] suppliers as well, because our time to market gets shortened considerably. So, it’s much more efficient for us as well.”

One way to manage those costs is to onshore more of its material sourcing network here into the U.S. We visited Claas’ Omaha factory this summer, and efforts were already underway to find more suppliers in Nebraska and the Midwest.

“We’re always looking at broadening our supplier base,” Raby says. “If we go back to COVID, I think the whole industry suffered from a lack of versatility within the supply chain. So we’re always looking for different suppliers. And then obviously, with the tariffs now, we’re looking even more intently on sourcing locally.”

Nearly 50/50

New Holland is largely viewed as a Euro-brand in farm equipment circles, but it’s closer to an even split. The company manufactures about 50% of it’s row-crop machinery in the EU and 40% in North America, with the remaining 10% built in the Asia-Pacific region.

JEAN-MARC GIUBOUX PHOTOGRAPHY

(New Holland)

New Holland’s vice president of North America, Ryan Schaefer, has been in the leadership role for the brand’s domestic operations for about a year now. He says CNH Industrial has eight manufacturing plants in the U.S. as well as a significant presence in western Canada, but managing the tariff situation has been anything but easy, he says.

“We produce tractors and combines all over the world, as well, so we truly have a global footprint,” he says. “So really, I wouldn’t go so far as to call the situation difficult, but the challenges are something that many in our industry have never had to deal with firsthand. It’s been a learning experience for all manufacturers, I would say, throughout North America and the globe.”

Your Next Read: Fendt’s New Autonomy Ready Vario Tractors, Split Fold Optimum Planter

President Trump Threatens New Round of Tariffs Over the Weekend: Here’s the Latest

Tue, 15 Jul 2025 13:09:01 GMT

U.S. commodity markets were down to start the week in Sunday night trade as the markets digested the latest tariff announcement by President Donald Trump. On Saturday, President Trump threatened to impose 30% tariffs on Mexico and the European Union starting on August 1. The announcement came after a string of new tariff threats last week, as the Trump administration’s deadline for trade deals came due.

On Monday, President Trump continued with tariff talk, saying he would implement “severe tariffs” on Russia unless a peace deal is reached with Ukraine within 50 days.

He provided few details on how they would be implemented but described them as 100% secondary tariffs, meaning they would target Russia’s trading partners in an effort to isolate Moscow in the global economy.

The latest tariff threats weren’t good news for farmers looking to price fertilizer for fall, as StoneX Group says Russia is the United States’ top destination for both urea and UAN imports. StoneX points out Russia’s market chair has “grown substantially in recent years.”

Monday’s news follows a week where many anticipated trade deals. Instead, President Trump made a series of announcements with new tariffs. The new tariffs on Mexico and the European Union, which Trump announced Saturday, capped off a week of sweeping tariff threats.

Earlier in the week, Trump warned of a possible:

50% tariff on all copper imports
50% tariff on all goods from Brazil
35% tariff on Canadian goods
25% tariff on goods from Japan
25% tariff on imports from South Korea
200% tariff on imported pharmaceuticals

The positive side of the announcements is the Trump administration says any products covered under the U.S. Mexico Canada Agreement (UMCA) won’t face the new tariffs.

President Trump also sent letters to both Japan and South Korea last week, saying their goods will be taxed at 25% starting August 1st.

The President posted the two letters he sent to those countries’ leaders on his Truth Social site. In the letter to South Korea, he stated when it comes to Korea’s tariff and non-tariff polices and trade barriers, the relationship between the two countries has been far from reciprocal. He added the 25% tariff was far less than what he says is needed to eliminate a trade deficit disparity.

The letter to Japan added if Japanese companies decide to build or manufacture a product within the U.S., there will be no tariffs. Japanese and U.S. negotiators have been working for several weeks to try and reach a deal.

Lack of Progress Impacts Commodity Prices
The lack of trade announcements last week was just one factor that caused corn prices to tank, according to AgMarket.net’s Matt Bennett. While rain in the upper Corn Belt was also bearish for the markets, little to no movement on trade is also pressuring prices.

“We had no trade announcements, and then we continued to talk about tariffs. The unfortunate reality right now is it appears the administration is playing the long game, trying to get people to come to the table with better trade deals than what we currently have seen. But it certainly isn’t doing any favors for the corn market,” Bennett said on U.S. Farm Report this weekend. “I think something like a big trade agreement certainly could tilt the tide more in the favor of the corn market moving higher. Until you get that, with weather being as good as what it is, there’s nothing there.”

It’s not all bearish, though. Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says the 50% tariff on Brazil is actually bullish for beef.

“We already have a shortage of protein in America with the cattle herd being shrinking over recent years because of lingering drought in the western half of the country, and supplies are tight. We’re just getting to the point of trying to rebuild those supplies, which holding back heifers, tightens up the supply of meat even more. We’re feeding to record-high carcass weights to try to fill the void. We’re increasing imports to record levels. Brazil is the primary supplier of those imports: 27% of our imports come from Brazil in the first five months of the year, according to the latest data we have available, that’s 666 million pounds. That’s 4% of consumption,” Suderman says.

If you think 4% doesn’t sound like a big deal, Suderman says it is - especially considering meat demand in the U.S. has turned out to be inelastic.

“We’ve been shifting from a starch-based diet more heavily toward protein-based. And as the prices go up, we’re actually increasing demand for beef and the other proteins - but we don’t have the supply of it. I think that could be a real problem going forward for the meat industry and the meat supply. We will have to find somewhere else to get that meat,” Suderman says.

Are Trade Deals Close?

While President Trump initially stated he had reached trade agreements with 200 countries, only a few have been officially announced. These include deals with China, the United Kingdom, and Vietnam, however. Negotiations with other countries are ongoing, with the administration extending the deadline for tariff-related negotiations to August 1.

The European Union says it was working on sealing a trade deal with the U.S. by the end of this month, and the European Commission president says the EU was working closely with the Trump administration to reach a deal.

Breaking: Mexican Border Closed Again as New World Screwworm Comes Within 370 Miles of the U.S.

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 02:18:04 GMT

On July 8, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety and Quality reported a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, Mexico, which is approximately 160 miles northward of the current sterile fly dispersal grid on the eastern side of the country and 370 miles south of the U.S./Mexico border.

This new northward detection comes approximately two months after northern detections were reported in Oaxaca and Veracruz, less than 700 miles away from the U.S. border, which triggered the closure of our ports to Mexican cattle, bison and horses on May 11, 2025 .

While USDA announced a risk-based phased port re-opening strategy for cattle, bison and equine from Mexico beginning as early as July 7, 2025 , this newly reported NWS case raises significant concern about the previously information shared by Mexican officials and severely compromises the outlined port reopening schedule of five ports from July 7 to Sept. 15. Therefore, in order to protect American livestock and the U.S. food supply, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins has ordered the closure of livestock trade through southern ports of entry effective immediately.

“The United States has promised to be vigilant — and after detecting this new NWS case, we are pausing the planned port reopening’s to further quarantine and target this deadly pest in Mexico. We must see additional progress combatting NWS in Veracruz and other nearby Mexican states in order to reopen livestock ports along the Southern border,” Rollins says. “Thanks to the aggressive monitoring by USDA staff in the U.S. and in Mexico, we have been able to take quick and decisive action to respond to the spread of this deadly pest.”

To ensure the protection of U.S. livestock herds, USDA is holding Mexico accountable by ensuring proactive measures are being taken to maintain a NWS free barrier. This is maintained with stringent animal movement controls, surveillance, trapping and following the proven science to push the NWS barrier south in phases as quickly as possible.

In June, Secretary Rollins launched a 5-point plan to combat NWS by protecting our border at all costs, increasing eradication efforts in Mexico, and increasing readiness. USDA also announced the groundbreaking of a sterile fly dispersal facility in South Texas. This facility will provide a critical contingency capability to disperse sterile flies should a NWS detection be made in the Southern U.S.

Simultaneously, USDA is moving forward with the design process to build a domestic sterile fly production facility to ensure it has the resources to push NWS back to the Darien Gap. USDA is working on these efforts in lockstep with border states – Arizona, New Mexico and Texas – as it will take a coordinated approach with federal, state and local partners to keep this pest at bay and out of the U.S.

USDA will continue to have personnel perform site visits throughout Mexico to ensure the Mexican government has adequate protocols and surveillance in place to combat this pest effectively and efficiently.

Click to enlarge.

(USDA)

Your Next Read: Protect Your Livestock: Signs of New World Screwworm

Breaking News: Mexican Ports to Reopen in Phases for Cattle Trade Starting July 7

Mon, 30 Jun 2025 21:55:31 GMT

Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced today a risk-based phased port re-openings for cattle, bison and equine from Mexico beginning as early as July 7.

The announcement is following the extensive collaboration between USDA–Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) experts and their counterparts in Mexico to increase New World screwworm (NWS) surveillance, detection and eradication efforts. The port reopening timeline is:

Douglas, Ariz. – July 7
Columbus, N.M. – July 14
Santa Teresa, N.M. – July 21
Del Rio, Texas – Aug. 18
Laredo, Texas – Sept. 15

After each reopening, USDA will evaluate to ensure no adverse effects arise.

Progress Being Made to Stop Progress of NWS

According to USDA, progress has been made in several critical areas since the ports were closed on May 11 , including:

Resolution of challenges with conducting flights in Mexico that has allowed the team to consistently conduct sterile NWS fly dispersal seven days each week
Dispersal of more than 100 million flies each week
USDA sent five APHIS teams to visit, observe and gain a deeper understanding of Mexico’s NWS response. The APHIS teams were allowed the opportunity to share feedback.

USDA says there has not been a notable increase in reported NWS cases in Mexico, nor any northward movement of NWS over the past eight weeks.

“At USDA we are focused on fighting the New World screwworm’s advancement in Mexico. We have made good progress with our counterparts in Mexico to increase vital pest surveillance efforts and have boosted sterile fly dispersal efforts. These quick actions by the Trump Administration have improved the conditions to allow the phased reopening of select ports on the Southern Border to livestock trade,” Rollins says. “We are continuing our posture of increased vigilance and will not rest until we are sure this devastating pest will not harm American ranchers.”

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) says it supports the plan to strategically reopen key ports of entry.

“NCBA and our state affiliates have spent months working with USDA to safeguard the U.S. cattle industry from the threat of New World screwworm. We strongly support USDA’s five-pronged plan to fight the screwworm, which includes bolstering sterile fly production by renovating a facility in Metapa, Mexico, and by building a new fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in south Texas,” says NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “Today’s announcement to reopen key ports of entry is a measured, thoughtful approach by Secretary Rollins to allow some trade while also ensuring the American cattle industry is protected from this pest.”

While the Douglas, Ariz., port presents the lowest risk based upon the geography of Sonora and a long history of effective collaboration between APHIS and Sonora on animal health issues, USDA intends to reopen additional ports in New Mexico, and if it is proven safe to do so, in Texas, over the coming weeks. Additional port openings will be based on APHIS’ continuous reevaluation of the number of cases and potential northward movement of NWS, Mexico’s continued efforts to curb illegal animal movements, and implementation of further rigorous inspection and treatment protocols.

“We trust Secretary Rollins made this decision with the latest information from USDA staff in Mexico, and we know she will continue holding her counterparts in the Mexican government accountable for eradicating screwworm,” Woodall adds. “NCBA and our state affiliate partners will continue working with USDA and key members of Congress to protect the United States from New World screwworm.”

Continuing Efforts

USDA is working with Mexico’s National Department of Health, Food Safety and Food Quality (SENASICA) on outreach, education and training efforts to raise awareness and put producers on high alert about NWS, along with utilizing their well-functioning central laboratory for diagnosing cases. While Mexico has made great progress on animal movement controls and surveillance, additional progress will help ensure the remaining U.S. ports reopen. Enhanced animal movement controls to stem illegal animal movements from the south, along with robust surveillance and NWS risk mitigations beyond check points will be critical in pushing back NWS. APHIS technical teams continue to engage with SENASICA to improve the overall NWS posture in Mexico and implement the rigorous steps needed to keep this pest away from our border.

Mexico will also begin renovation of its sterile fruit fly facility in Metapa this week, with renovation expected to be completed by July 2026. Renovation of this facility will allow for production of between 60-100 million sterile NWS flies each week. This is a critical step towards reaching the goal of producing the estimated 400-500 million flies each week needed to re-establish the NWS barrier at the Darien Gap.

Only cattle and bison, born and raised in Sonora or Chihuahua, or that are treated according to cattle and bison NWS protocol when entering these states, will be eligible for import. See Importing Live Cattle and Bison From Mexico to the United States for more information on cattle and bison import requirements.

In addition, reopening the Del Rio (Aug. 18) and Colombia Bridge (Sept.15) ports will be contingent on Coahuila and Nuevo Leon adopting the same NWS protocols for cattle and bison as those now required of Sonora and Chihuahua for cattle or bison entering those states.

Equine may import from anywhere in Mexico. They require a seven-day quarantine at the port of entry and must import in accordance with the equine NWS protocol and other requirements detailed on USDA APHIS | Import Horses from Mexico webpage . Approved equine facilities are available at the Santa Teresa, N.M., port and will be available for entry of horses when that port is reopened.

In May 2025, USDA suspended imports of live cattle, bison, and equines from Mexico into the U.S. due to the continued and rapid northward spread of NWS. During the weeks of June 2 and June 16, teams of APHIS experts conducted robust onsite assessments of Mexico’s NWS response efforts to fully reassess the risk of NWS incursions to the U.S. posed by importation of Mexican cattle across our southern border.

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Rollins Rolls Out 5-Point Plan to Contain New World Screwworm

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 19:00:05 GMT

Today Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins announced a five-pronged plan to combat New World screwworm (NWS) – a pest that would devastate ranchers if it made its way across the border.

Rollins made her announcement at the Moore Air Base facility near Edinburg, Texas. Moore was instrumental as a sterile fly production lab to rid the U.S. of NWS in the 1960s and 1970s. Hundreds of millions of flies were reared, sterilized with radiation and dropped from aircraft to eliminate the parasitic pest that preyed upon wildlife and livestock. According to a USDA spokesperson it will cost an estimated $8.5 million to get the base up and running as a distribution facility.

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins this morning launched an $8.5 million sterile New World screwworm (NWS) fly dispersal facility in South Texas and announced a plan to enhance USDA’s already robust ability to detect, control, and eliminate this pest.

(U.S. Department of Agriculture)

According to the Texas Wildlife Association , there are currently more than 1,800 cases of livestock infestation in southern Mexico. The flies are moving north and are currently 600 miles from the south Texas border.

“We have defeated the screwworm before, and we will do it again,” Rollins says.

Here in McAllen, TX to announce a BOLD 5-pronged plan to combat the deadly parasite called New World Screwworm – which would devastate ranchers if it made its way across the border.

We are protecting producers, strengthening biosecurity, and ALWAYS standing up for American… pic.twitter.com/VHOlqZyZ9a
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) June 18, 2025

Her five-pronged plan to combat NWS includes:

Stop the pest from spreading in Mexico.
Rollins plans to continue partnering with her Mexican counterparts and using sterile insect technology to stop the spread. This includes investing $21 million to produce up to 100 million additional sterile flies weekly.

“We are first enhancing the international sterile fly production and investing $21 million in renovation of an existing fly facility in southern Mexico, which will provide up to 100 million additional sterile flies every week to stop the spread,” Rollins says.

Currently, the only sterile fly facility is located in Panama. It’s jointly run by the Panamanian government and the U.S. government. USDA had previously announced its plan to invest in the retrofiting of a fruit fly facility in Chiapas, Mexico, to produce additional sterile flies.

According to the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association , “The Chiapas facility produces about 117 million flies per week, but to form an effective barrier along the U.S. southern border, we need upward of 300 million sterile flies per week.”
Protect the U.S. at all costs.
Rollins temporarily closed the southern border to live animal imports and intercepting illegally introduced livestock. USDA is working closely with Mexico to improve surveillance.

“I do believe we have met and moved into a new era of productive partnership —perhaps better than ever before — with our Mexican counterparts,” Rollins says.
Maximize our readiness.
This will be achieved by partnering with state animal health officials to update emergency management plans and stockpile therapeutics for ranchers.
Take the fight to the screwworm.
The domestic fight includes establishing a sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base. Rollins says they are exploring options for building a domestic production facility at Moore that could produce up to 300 million sterile flies per week.

“We can’t get a brand new facility up and running probably before two or three years. So, that’s why we’ve got to really focus on the today,” Rollins explains.

She also announced USDA will be hosting listening sessions in affected areas starting next week.
Innovate Our Way to Eradication.
Leverage the sound science including USDA’s Agriculture Research Service (ARS) to continue to quickly develop novel treatments, preventatives and response strategies. Rollins says this includes working with land grant universities in Texas, Arizona and New Mexico. She listed these key strategies during the press conference:
- Develop better fly traps and lures
- Provide local training
- Improve surveillance methods
- Create new response strategies

Nearly 80 lawmakers led by House Ag Committee Chair Glenn “GT” Thompson (R-Pa.) sent a bipartisan letter on Tuesday to Rollins urging immediate action and promising congressional support for the significant funding required.

The letter included this message, “When looking solely at the historical impact of NWS in Texas, USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) estimates a contemporary outbreak would cost producers $732 million per year and the Texas economy a loss of $1.8 billion. Extrapolating those results to the states within the historic range of NWS pre-eradication, a contemporary outbreak of NWS could cost producers $4.3 billion per year and cause a total economic loss of more than $10.6 billion. This does not account for the possible expansion of NWS beyond the historic range.”

U.S. Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz (R-Texas) was at the announcement and recently shared in a letter to Rollins these key advantages of the Moore Air Base location:

Border proximity: The proximity to the border with Mexico is crucial for effective monitoring and control of potential incursions of invasive fly species. A facility in this region would allow for rapid response and containment, minimizing the spread of infestations into the U.S.
Existing agricultural infrastructure: The region boasts a robust agricultural sector with established infrastructure and expertise in livestock management. This existing framework would facilitate efficient integration of the sterile fly facility and streamline its operations. Additionally, Moore Air Base has operations runways equipped to distribute sterile flies.
Strategic location: Moore Air Base offers a central location for distribution of sterile flies to other areas in the southern U.S., if such a need arises. Additionally, this base was the site of a facility used in the 1960s to successfully combat NWS.
Economic impact: The establishment of such a facility would provide valuable economic opportunities for the region by generating jobs and stimulating local economies.

U.S. Congressman Ronny Jackson (R-Texas) summarized at the announcement, “This is important to the whole country. We are going to be aggressive about this, and we are going to make sure that we don’t get screwed by the screwworm.”

Your Next Read: Urgency in Action: We Must Eradicate New World Screwworm

Urgency in Action: We Must Eradicate New World Screwworm

Tue, 03 Jun 2025 16:14:06 GMT

New World screwworm (NWS) continues to threaten the U.S. cattle industry. The potential impact is devastating — the larvae can kill an animal in just four to seven days if not quickly detected and treated.

Colin Woodall, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO, discussed the hurdles of controlling the spread of NSW on the latest episode of the “Unscripted” podcast .

“We have to eradicate it from here,” Woodall stresses. “We need to eradicate it from Mexico. We need to eradicate it from Central America. We need to push this thing all the way back down to South America.”

The NSW fly and its larvae are flesh-eating parasites that pose a significant threat to warm-blooded animals.

“This is not just a cattle issue,” Woodall says. “This could be dogs. This can be cats. It can get into people. So, anything that is warm blooded could be a host for this flesh-eating parasite.”

Woodall says NSW is approximately 700 miles from the U.S. border, having breached the isthmus of Mexico in the states of Oaxaca and Veracruz, adding that Texas is expected to be the first point of entry if the fly continues to move north.

“We’re going to look at every eradication option possible, because we have to get rid of this thing,” he says. “This is not something that can become endemic to United States. We have to eradicate it from here.”

Woodall says the situation has been complicated by cooperation challenges with Mexico. Earlier attempts to transport sterile flies were hindered by bureaucratic obstacles, with planes unable to land and flies dying before deployment. This led Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins to close the border, sending a clear signal to the Mexican government about the need for more serious action.

He explains cooperation has reportedly improved, with USDA teams planning to visit Mexico to assess the current situation. The primary strategy for control involves releasing sterile flies into the wild to disrupt breeding and push the population back southward.

Woodall says NCBA is actively working on several fronts to address the threat:

Pushing for the establishment of a domestic sterile fly production facility.
Exploring genetic engineering technologies for fly control.
Investigating treatment options (such as ivermectin) and helping producers understand how to detect and treat potential infections quickly. Woodall says treatment is possible, explaining ivermectin has proven effective in killing larvae and treating wounds. However, early detection is crucial due to the rapid progression of infection.
Conducting education and awareness campaigns to explain the threat without causing panic. He says misinformation has been a significant challenge. A recent false report about NSW in Missouri caused panic and temporarily impacted cattle prices. He adds that while the threat is serious, it’s not a cause for panic.

“While everybody needs to be aware, they don’t need to panic, and that’s the thing we want everybody to understand,” Woodall summarizes.

NCBA is taking an active role in addressing the threat of NSW through education, technological exploration, government collaboration and a clear commitment to preventing its spread.

Your Next Read: Secretary Rollins Announces $21 Million Investment to Renovate Fruit Fly Production Facility

U.S. Cattle Industry Urges Mexico's Border to Remain Closed Over Spread of New World Screwworm

Tue, 13 May 2025 20:26:19 GMT

New World screwworm (NWS) has been detected in Mexico only 700 miles from the U.S. border. With the impending threat, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) says it’s not a matter of if the U.S. gets the deadly pest — but when.

Mexican officials said Tuesday they won’t close the southern border to cattle from Central America, but the U.S. cattle industry strong supports USDA’s decision over the weekend to suspend cattle, horse and bison imports from Mexico , saying the 15-day suspension will likely be extended due to Mexico’s lack of action so far.

NWS Detected 700 Miles From the U.S.
It’s an issue that started in November. The detection of NWS in Chiapas, which is near the Guatemala border, caused USDA to close the border to cattle imports. While shipments resumed in February, USDA says Mexico isn’t doing enough to eradicate the invasive pest, causing an even greater threat to the U.S. cattle industry. And now NCBA wants the U.S. to ramp up efforts as well.

“When we discovered New World screwworm flies in the southern border of Mexico right before Thanksgiving back in November, at that point in time, USDA provided counsel, they provided some money to help the Mexican government try to stop the incursion of the fly,” Colin Woodall, CEO of NCBA, told AgriTalk’s Chip Flory.

“But unfortunately, because of the ineptitude of the Mexican government, quite frankly, the corruption of the Mexican government, the inability to actually allow the planes that are carrying the sterile males to land and to be able to do their job, they have now come further north,” Woodall says. “And right now we know that New World screwworm flies have been detected just 700 miles south of the U.S. Border.”

Woodall told AgriTalk’s Flory that the pest is now way too close for comfort.

Mexico Won’t Close Mexico/Central America Border
According to Reuters, Mexico’s agriculture minister said on Tuesday it will take a long time to eradicate the pest. While the officials said they won’t close Mexico’s southern border to cattle from Central America, Mexico will tighten the flow of cattle from the south of the country to limit the potential spread of the screwworm.

“We are going to be restricting cattle movement from the south of the country much more tightly,” Mexican Agriculture Minister Julio Berdegue said on Tuesday, adding that “closing the border is a complex issue that needs to be carefully analyzed, because it also impacts the national meat supply.”

MEXICO AGRICULTURE MINISTER:

WILL TAKE A LONG TIME TO ERADICATE SCREWWORM FROM MEXICO AND CENTRAL AMERICA
— PiQ (@PiQSuite) May 13, 2025

Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension Livestock Marketing Specialist, spoke with Drovers about the geography of southern Mexico and how the NWS has been able to move further north.

“Mexico has that narrow point down there at the bottom, the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, then to the east of it is the Yucatan Peninsula. To the west is the rest of Mexico, and that narrow gap is, historically, where we established the boundary way back when,” Peel explains. “When we initially controlled screw worm in the U.S., we pushed it down through Mexico and got it past below that isthmus, and that was the boundary for years. Then we eventually got it down to Panama, but it got away from them. In Panama, it came back up through Central America, and now that’s the reason we closed the border. It’s actually jumped past that isthmus and is into a part of Mexico now where it’s going to be increasingly difficult to contain it, just physically. That’s the concern and the reason for this latest action.”

NCBA Blames Corruption in Mexico’s Government
Woodall told AgriTalk the country has poorly managed the situation so far and was pointed with his words, saying it’s because of the Mexican government’s failures that Rollins stepped up and closed the border on Sunday to “send a very clear signal that they have failed, and they’ve got to step up their approach.”

“We do know that the first meeting to review the ban is in about 15 days, and then it’ll be reviewed on a month-by-month basis,” Woodall said on AgriTalk. “That’s what the secretary has said. But unless they do something miraculous as far as changing the approach that they are taking in trying to address this in Mexico, I doubt that it’ll be lifted in 15 days just because of what we’ve already seen. They’ve had six months to step up here and try to address it, and they’ve fumbled the ball.”

“They’ve had six months to step up here and try to address it, and they’ve fumbled the ball.”

Colin Woodall, Chief Executive Officer, NCBA

The corruption claims are rooted in what the U.S. has experienced over the past several months. As the U.S. has tried to ramp up efforts to help stop the spread, Woodall told Flory that there have been instances where the government wouldn’t allow U.S. planes to fly over impacted areas, or not allow those planes to land.

“Will they allow that without additional hurdles or trying to extort money from these planes?” Woodall says. “Will they be true cooperators in helping us get those sterile flies delivered into the country? And can we show that there is a check in their northern approach? If we can look at some things like that, then we’ll be willing to go back to the table, because as I said, we know that this is an economic impact on us, but it’s also a pest that we do not want here domestically.”

The Risks of NWS If It Enters the U.S.
The risks are high. Not only is the U.S. beef cattle herd the smallest in more than 60 years, NWS can be lethal to other species.

“We have to be prepared, and that’s why I talked about it. We need to make sure producers understand what to look for because if you don’t catch it fast, you’re going to lose that animal,” Woodall says. “Also this is not just a cattle issue; we’re talking all warm-blooded animals. This can be on birds. This can be on hogs. It can be in pets like dogs. And it can be in people. So, this is going to be a significant issue that we have to deal with not just as a cattle industry, but us in agriculture because I think it also could look really bad from an optics standpoint if somebody’s dog gets screwworms and they want to blame us as agriculture for being responsible for it.”

“This is not just a cattle issue; we’re talking all warm-blooded animals. This can be on birds. This can be on hogs. It can be in pets like dogs. And it can be in people.”

Colin Woodall, CEO of NCBA

Woodall says NWS is a nasty parasite. It hasn’t been in the U.S. since the 1960s, but the reason it’s so difficult to manage is it lays larva, and the larva dig into the flesh of the animal, basically eating the flesh.

“That’s how it develops,” Woodall says. “And so, if it’s not treated, within four to seven days, you can lose an animal. This is a significant animal health issue.”

Currently, there’s a sterile fly production facility in Panama. Jointly funded by the U.S. government, the facility produces a little more than 100 million sterile flies a week, according to Woodall.

“Now, when we were dealing with this down in southern Mexico, 100 million were enough to be able to stop it,” he says. “But now that they have gone through that phytosanitary border and are coming north, that’s no longer going to be enough. We do not have enough sterile flies.”

NCBA Is Working with Congress and USDA to Ramp Up Sterile Fly Production Domestically
NCBA is talking to both USDA and Congress about building a sterile fly production facility in the U.S. When NWS was a problem in the U.S. more than 60 years ago, there was a production facility based in Texas.

There is legislation to do just that. The STOP Screwworms Act was introduced by Rep. Tony Gonzales (R-TX) and Sen. John Cornyn (R-TX). It would fund the opening of a new sterile fly facility in the United States, with the legislators saying the bill would help protect both livestock and human health from the New World screwworm.

“One of the things that we’re also talking to the secretary about and also with Congress is how do we have the funding to build a sterile fly production facility here in the United States because that is the only way we’re going to stop these flies, get them out of the United States, out of Mexico, and ultimately push back into South America,” he says.

“One of the things that we’re also talking to the secretary about and also with Congress is do we have the funding to build a sterile fly production facility here in the United States?”

Colin Woodall, CEO, NCBA

He says in the ‘60s, it took more than 400 million sterile flies a week to eradicate the issue.

“We are focused on getting the domestic production up and running as quickly as possible, so is Secretary Rollins,” Woodall says. “She’s doing a tremendous job in leading this effort. This is something that she has taken on personally. And so I have a lot of faith in her and her willingness to help us as an industry push back this pest, eradicate it as quickly as possible and try to get back to normal training.”

Groups like the Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association (TSCRA) also support a bill to protect the U.S. from NWS.

“The STOP Screwworms Act is a vital step in protecting the U.S. cattle herd from the growing threat of the New World screwworm. This legislation provides USDA the support needed to construct or retrofit domestic sterile fly production infrastructure which Texas Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association believes is essential in preventing a widespread outbreak,” President Carl Ray Polk Jr. said in a statement. “We are grateful to both Sen. Cornyn and Rep. Gonzales who understand the importance of acting quickly to support cattle raisers and ensuring the threat of the New World screwworm is taken seriously at the highest levels in Washington.”

Read More: U.S. Suspends Mexican Cattle, Horse and Bison Imports Over Screwworm Pest

Mexico Will Send More Water to Texas to Make Up Treaty Shortfall, USDA Says

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 13:09:25 GMT

U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said on Monday that Mexico would increase its water shipments to Texas to help make up a shortfall under a 1944 treaty that outlines water-sharing between the countries.

U.S. officials and lawmakers have complained that Mexico’s failure to meet its obligations under the treaty is harming Texas farmers.

Mexico has argued that it is under drought conditions that have strained the country’s water resources.

“After weeks of negotiations with Mexican cabinet officials alongside the Deputy Secretary of State Christopher Landau, we secured an agreement to give Texas producers the water they need to thrive. While this is a significant step forward, we welcome Mexico’s continued cooperation to support the future of American agriculture,” Rollins said in a statement.

🚨In President Trump’s first 100 days, we have secured an agreement with Mexico alongside @DeputySecState for an immediate transfer of water from international reservoirs to Texas farmers.

This will meet the immediate needs of American farmers and ranchers, and sets the stage…
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 28, 2025

Earlier this month, Reuters reported that the water issue had emerged as a possible new front in trade negotiations between the two countries.

The water treaty requires Mexico to send 1.75 million acre-feet of water to the U.S. from the Rio Grande every five years.

Mexico will now “transfer water from international reservoirs and increase the U.S. share of the flow in six of Mexico’s Rio Grande tributaries through the end of the current five-year water cycle,” which ends in October, said a USDA statement.

My gratitude to President Trump and Secretary Rollins. They have delivered as promised for our farmers. Mexico will meet its treaty obligations and provide south Texas water as required.
— Sid Miller (@MillerForTexas) April 29, 2025

State Department spokesperson Tammy Bruce in a statement thanked Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum “for her personal involvement in facilitating cooperation across multiple levels of her government to establish a unified path to addressing this ongoing priority.”

Mexico’s government released its own statement later on Monday saying it would implement “a series of measures aimed at mitigating potential shortfalls in water deliveries” including immediate water transfers as well as during the upcoming rainy season.

“All of these actions have as their fundamental premise the assurance of water supplies for human consumption for the Mexican populations that depend on the waters of the Rio Grande,” the statement said.

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