Milk Prices - News & Analysis

Corn and Soybeans at a Crossroads

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:51:09 GMT

Corn and soybeans were slightly higher early with wheat easing. Cattle lower, milk futures mostly higher.

Corn at a Crossroads
Corn futures were higher Tuesday and early Wednesday with help from the soybean and bean oil markets and with an eye on weather.

However, Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the corn market is at a crossroads at least the new crop contracts.

He says, “If you look at it technically right now, the market had a double top, $498.5 in December corn, a couple bearish key reversals in that same couple week window. Those are negative signs. A crossover sell on stochastics, and the market dropped off. And what happened is December corn retraced 50% of the move when prices bottomed earlier in winter after the January 12th report to where they peaked on March 9th. That was the start of the war. And then they kind of ran out of selling momentum on dry weather concerns in parts of the Midwest and then this last weekend, wet weather concerns.”

He says downward momentum was lost then and prices have edged back higher with help from a rebound in wheat and soybean oil.

However, he says prices are stalling out and need a bullish catalyst to keep rallying.

Lower Acres, Fertilizer Issues?
Demand continues strong but hasn’t resulted in a chart breakout in corn but what about the fertilizer crunch or lower acres due to high prices?

He says, “We can’t put any real numbers on the fertilizer yet. We can make assumptions on what that may or may not mean for acres. Acres will be down 3 million, but with still a million acres more on the March 31st report than the pre-report estimate. So it’s in a holding pattern right now.”

Doherty adds that high fertilizer, lower yields, lower acres, and weather events haven’t seen affected or cut the corn crop for three years worldwide. “So there’s a lot of potential, but I want to highlight that potential is often overrated.”

Corn Stalling Out?
He says Dec corn is trading around $4.84 as we and last year Dec 25 corn put in a high for the calendar year at $4.78 3/4 with a 1.5 billion bu. carryout and this year it is at 2.1 billion which is heavy.

“And then the news this week that I’m getting out of Argentina is a bigger crop. A record crop by a large amount. The USDA attache raised production to 61 MMT, up for 5 MMT. And the Rosario Grain Exchange was at 67 MMT,” he says.

Plus historically, he says the market does have a tendency to work lower into the May and June window unless there’s a weather event.

“So do we have a weather event? Do we have concerns about too dry? I don’t think we can quite play the too wet card, although it’s very impactful to some who aren’t turning a wheel. It’s just I’m running out of bullish bullets. So that’s the crossroads part of it.”

Soybeans Lifted by China Buying Talk and Bean Oil
Soybeans were higher early with the push from new contract and multi-year highs in bean oil and talk of China looking for soybeans off the Pacific Northwest.

Doherty says that could be China trying to buy ahead of the mid-May meeting.

“It’s a goodwill token. It’s putting their foot out there and saying, hey, we’ve got bigger fish to fry than soybeans, let’s buy some beans and let’s
work on those bigger fish, which is energy, which is a lot of things, technology. The beans are the visible component right now.”

Soybeans Also at a Crossroads
Doherty likes the action in soybeans but says the market is also at a crossroads and may have a difficult time getting above chart resistance.

“Soybean oil has been reflective of the whole bioenergy atmosphere that we talked about this years ago that would take time to catch up. We seem to be getting to catch up. At the same time, though, we’re losing export activity. Exports have been slow in recent weeks,” he explains.

November soybeans are up at the March highs at $11.74 1/4 and testing the double top but will need a close above that level to continue to rally.

With a 350 million bu. carryout he doesn’t think bean oil strength alone can do it.

“I mean, bean meal is not a leader. So crushers are making money. So that’s positive and may be supportive. But I’m just concerned with 350 million bushels of projected carryout that’s just too heavy to expect a rally from here without some other type catalyst. Soybean oil has already done its heavy lifting,” he explains.

Wheat Stalls Out Too
Wheat futures were softer on Wednesday as HRW wheat did not take out the March highs on Tuesday.

Doherty says the market has factored in the damage from frost and drought and needs more bullish weather news to drive higher.

“I’m going to say I’m not sure because wheat’s a finicky crop and it’s so moisture dependent in areas. What I think happened this past week is we didn’t get the real hard killing freeze that might have been forecast in some areas that really might have made a difference. Timely rains are still really, really, really beneficial right now to the wheat crop. So I think you’re still in a bit of a weather event there.”

Plus he says the world has ample wheat supplies.

“Keep in mind the WASDE report added 6 million metric tons above expectations on World carry out. So if you’re keeping score, there’s roughly 35 million bushels in a metric ton. So you’ve got an extra couple in round numbers, a couple hundred million bushels added. So it’s tough to get too friendly when you’re seeing that number tick higher,” he adds.

Cattle Take Out Support
Cattle futures were lower early Wednesday on follow through technical selling and took out key support in the June live cattle at the $243 level that held last week. With a close below that, how much lower does the market fall?

“After a big rally, it’s destined for a correction. The key is and has been can demand hold up. So one of the thoughts I have or concern that I have is that the war started March 9th. Gas prices shot higher, and we keep seeing that on the news and the media. And it’s real. Consumers are paying more. Diesel is expensive, right? Who pays for gas with cash, right? So it’s credit cards. You pay for it down the road. Well, now we’re getting down the road. So I think there is something to, if you want to try and draw a direct correlation to higher energy prices, that demand in cattle could be moving out,” he explains.

He also points out a long term double top on the charts at the $250 area and seasonally cattle can top in April after the grilling season demand is secured.

However, he says supplies are going to remain tight.

Still if June closes below support it will see a break to the 100-day moving avreage around $232 on June live cattle

Milk Market Remains Volatile
The milk futures were mostly higher on Wednesday morning but have been volatile according to Doherty, which can create opportunities.

“So we’ve seen three times now where the market all of a sudden kind of makes a spike higher, and then it’s lost at three times. And even here recently, we’re seeing a lot of back and forth, a lot of movement in the marketplace. So providing those opportunities,” he explains.

He says the traditional market movers, cheese and butter have not been the stars recently in the complex.

“The star has been the protein products, the nonfat dry milk, whey products. Things like that have helped to give the market a boost. I don’t know if they alone can, let’s call it, sustain a rally and turn this into a favorable bull market. You’re going to need the other components to come along. And I just don’t know if they’re there right now. We saw a global dairy trade two sessions in a row now losing ground. So some of that world demand seems to be slowing,” he says.

Plus, he doesn’t see any herd reduction for at least the next two or three milk production reports.

It goes back to the beef on dairy market he says.

“For sure. Huge revenue stream. Things have changed. It’s a big change. More they change, more they stay the same. Be vigilant. Look for rally
opportunities. I think the market wants to be bullish. I think traders do. The call option premium out into the fall months is very, I think, higher than usual, which would maybe suggest higher prices. At the same time, good opportunity if you’re a call seller to look at those,” he advises.

Grains End Lower Removing Risk Premium: Cattle Make New Highs

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 21:15:40 GMT

Grains ended lower Wednesday with livestock and milk futures all higher.

Grains Fall with Crude Oil Remove Risk Premium
Grain futures ended lower on Wednesday with fund selling across the complex and Bryan Doherty with Total Farm Marketing says the markets were removing risk premium.

“The reports, the stocks, the acreage numbers, they’re now out of the way. They’re known. Add to that crude oil softening and staying around that $100 or less per barrel and rain on the radar, all of a sudden you’re kind of running out of bullish things, right?”

Is the Rally in Grains Over if the Iran War is Winding Down?
The grains markets were also removing risk premium with President Trump saying the war in Iran would be over in two to three weeks. If that happens and crude oil continues to spiral is the grain market rally over?

Doherty says, “It’s looking likelier that we have a top in the market. I want to be really careful. We’re at a time of the year with as much money
flow as we’ve seen and variables like crude oil, if it’s done rallying. The story just gets harder and harder for corn.”

He says quarterly stocks were nearly 877 million bushels higher than a year ago with projected ending stocks still at 2.1 billion bu. on corn.

“Corn acreage was down but the numbers came on a survey that was prior to corn challenging the $5 area on December, or at least most of the numbers. So it seems like the market vote right now is cautiously turning negative.”

Profit Taking?
Some of the pull back in the grains can be tied to general profit taking says Doherty as the funds have been on a buying spree the last few weeks since the war in Iran began.

“The managed money in the Commitment of Traders Report showed they were 284 000 contracts net long in corn that is a big number for this time of the year.”

He says that helped drive up corn prices but if the market weakens further it could trigger more technical selling and profit taking.

“We saw this past week stochastics give a sell signal and two bearish key reversals in five days a break under channel line support a jump back up to retest that channel line support and then failure. So technically it looks a little soft,” he explains.

Fundamentally, he is also running out of a bullish story.

Do Funds Defend Their Longs Going Into the Growing Season?
Funds are long corn and were record long in the soybean complex to start the week. So do they defend those positions through planting and at least the early growing season?

“The last two years they didn’t, right? The market started trending lower and then they just don’t look back. There was no immediate catalyst. Now when I talk about immediate catalyst let’s say a prolonged drier pattern, followed by more dryness. Last year after a dry planting period we had timely rains throughout the season,” he says.

That weather produced a record corn crop, but this year there are growing drought concerns. So, he thinks its too early to tell if the funds will stay long.

Wheat Removes Weather Premium
Wheat had an ugly day but was also removing weather premium on Wednesday with forecasts for rain in the Central and Southern Plains.

“There was just enough of an outlook change or increasing some rainfall totals that the market may have come under pressure today. Traders move their stops up pretty tight. Market starts to trip those. And all of a sudden you got, after a good day yesterday, you got an ugly looking day today,” he adds.

Corn Acres Fall, Soybeans Rise Moving Forward?
With the Prospective Plantings Report out of the way the chatter continues about whether or not the corn market will lose additional acres due to high fertilizer prices and some supplies not being available for the planting season. Conversely soybeans may need to buy more acres with strong RVOs and a China deal.

Doherty says it looks like there will be some logistical issues with fertilizer.

“And so farmers are going to have to make decisions. That being said, though, I’d make the argument in the circles that I talk with daily I think most of these progressive producers are pretty well set for this year. It’s more the fringe acres or the smaller farmer who needs to buy fertilizer yet and faces some big challenges and may have to switch some acres to soybeans,” he explains.

However, he doesn’t think the switch means more than 4 million less acres of corn compared to last year. “There was too much of a rally in new crop corn that I think farmers could push into.”

Still he thinks it’s too early for anybody to call.

Cattle Make New Highs
Feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move with deferred live cattle making new contract highs.

The combination of higher cash and strong demand seem to be pushing the market in additional to technical buying.

Doherty says, “But ultimately, it’s the same story. Limited supply. Feeder barns are active. Prices push higher. You’ve got retailers, I think, pushing to get the inventory in. In the U.S. people are working and they’re buying beef, the price doesn’t seem to scare them.”

Will the Rally Continue?
Doherty thinks the market may be close to peaking.

“To keep a market sustained upward in this kind of trend, one, you’ve got to prove it eventually, right? We are proving that $200 is the new low in cattle and probably $225 to $235 the new norm. The $245 to $250 level has not proven that demand can move above those levels and keep up with those prices. So, I think we’re just in that window here from a long-term perspective where the market’s offering some very good opportunities to defend prices in some capacity,”

Milk Futures in Upper End of Trading Ranges
Class III milk futures were higher on Wednesday and are up at the top end of the recent trading ranges. So what pushes the market to new highs?

Doherty isn’t sure. “It doesn’t appear that it’s the cash market leading the rally in cheese or the product. As I look at those values, something like April milk, $17.49 today that’s well over a $1 higher than March. So I don’t know what the next 30 days have in it.”

He thinks milk should be able to hold a premium due to strong export demand but he also thinks the market is getting up to points fundamentally its hard to argue for higher prices without improved demand.

“And right now, the cheese market down $1.59 on barrels, $1.63 on the blocks. That’s not buying it right now. Butter was off a couple cents today, $1.75. I don’t think that supports any of the futures prices where they’re currently priced,” he adds.

Soybeans Fall on SCOTUS Tariff Ruling, China Fears: Wheat Hits Fresh Highs to Lift Corn

Fri, 20 Feb 2026 22:00:28 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mixed on Friday

Soybeans Fall on SCOTUS Tariff Ruling, China Fears
Soybeans hit new highs for the move early Friday with the help of a rally in soybean meal but then reversed lower as the Supreme Court of the United States ruled that the IEEPA tariffs were illegal. Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says the market fears that China will use the ruling as leverage to get out of its trade framework struck with the U.S. on Oct. 30 and that could include its soybean purchase commitments. “I mean, I think it’s a legitimate concern. Anytime you’re taking a levered position and you’re taking it off the table, you worry that maybe the other side’s going to back away from their commitments,” he says.

There were further concerns that this might mean the planned meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi scheduled for early April could be canceled.

Does the April Meeting in China Still Happen?
However, Hackett is actually fairly optimistic that the April meeting will take place and that China may broaden its agricultural buying portfolio. “I tend to feel that the truce that the Chinese and the United States have put together is longer lasting than that. We just need to see evidence over the next few weeks that everything is still good. This meeting is still going to happen. And we still expect a broadening of this China trade deal to include other ag markets. Until we see that, I think the
market’s going to be a little worried that maybe we’ve put too much premium into the soybean market with that unknown in the market now.”

Soybeans Post Higher Week
Despite, that soybeans did post a higher weekly close and technically look strong but are up against long term chart resistance according to Hackett.

“Right now, if you look at the chart technically, the three -year and five -year moving average on the July contract is $11.60 to $11.80. I think the last rally late last year went into that same range. So we’re in major chart resistance. I don’t think we can get through that, Michelle, until we get hardcore evidence that not only is this meeting going to happen, but that we can expect bigger things. And we need to see that until we do. I think the soybeans market could be in a corrective phase.”

Will China Buy Beans Ahead of April Meeting?
The wild card is if China starts buying soybeans ahead of the April meeting as a goodwill gesture and Hackett agrees that is possible.

“I absolutely believe they will do that. If we’re going to go ahead with this and we’re going to have this meeting and we’re going to broaden this trade deal, I would have to believe that they’re going to show some goodwill and purchases showing
that they’re moving the ball forward ahead of this meeting. So I would expect as they come out of this New Year’s holiday, Chinese holiday, to see them back in buying soybeans and supporting the idea that all is still the Supreme Court, you know, voting against these reciprocal tariffs.”

Biofuels Optimism Also Support Beans and Bean Oil
The soybean oil futures saw a bit of a correction as well on Friday but have been hitting new contract highs on optimism on biofuels demand with upcoming decisions on 45Z and the RVOs. Certainty regarding biofuels policy will be needed to keep the momentum going. “I mean, we’ve been struggling to get clarity on the renewable diesel, the biofuel here in the U.S. and it looks like we might finally get that clarity and it might be actually on the better side of what expectations were, helping the domestic bean crush for sure.”

He says the rally in crude oil due to geopolitical concerns with Iran are also supportive to the biofuels space.

Wheat Ends Higher Friday, Sees a Chart Breakout
Wheat futures ended higher on Friday and for the week, working on a chart breakout. While some of the rally has been fund short covering, Hackett says wheat is also adding risk premium. “We have significant unrest in Iran. There’s worry about the Straight of Hormuz that could be closed or restricted. We’re not getting good signs from Russia, Ukraine de -escalating. It looks like it’s re-escalating. And we have these Palmer Drought severity indices in the U.S., they keep getting redder and redder going as we get into the post -dormancy season. And the market’s starting to worry that a dry spring here could really hurt yields and maybe provide a weather spark that we haven’t seen in the wheat market in quite some time. So I think it’s appropriate in the market doesn’t yet appear to be done putting that premium in.”

Will Corn Continue to Follow Wheat?
Corn was slightly higher on Friday trying to follow wheat, but it has been a reluctant follower. Hackett says that is because farmers are selling old crop corn on the cash market ahead of first notice day. “We’re seeing aggressive cash selling right now on in corn that’s keeping the market depressed, keeping it from following wheat, keeping it from following soybeans higher. And in addition, the weather down in Brazil for the second crop corn, 75 % of the production down there has been excellent. And it looks like it’s going to continue to be excellent. So a lack of weather worried down in South America, along with active cash selling here domestically, is keeping that market from rallying and that’s probably going to continue at least into the first half of March.”

Best Hope for a Corn Rally?
Hackett says the best hope for a corn rally may be if China starts buying corn as part of the trade deal with the U.S. “If an expanded trade deal is going to include the corn market, that certainly would change the view
of demand of the balance sheet. And then of course we got to get to the planting intentions report and the quarterly grain stocks report at the end of March to see if the USDA’s outlook is correct or not.”

China has recently bought 45 cargoes of U.S.sorghum and is buying Australian wheat. So, Hackett thinks there is quality problem with China’s crop and they are going to need corn from the U.S. “So I think not only is there a need for it, but I just think
it makes sense on increasing the goodwill between the United States and China that they would expand in the corn market. And we certainly have some corn to sell at a price that China would find it fairly attractive at this point.”

Will China Buy Cotton?
Will China also buy cotton as part of that trade deal? Hackett is optimistic about the prospects. “We know that they continue and have always been one of our largest, if not the largest buyers of U.S. cotton, is the Chinese. If you looked at a chart, all of a sudden in the last week, week and a half, we’ve seen a significant rally off of almost a V off the lows here. And it looks to me like we might, the market might be sensing that we’re going to be seeing some increased cotton purchases.” he adds.

Growing Season Forecast
While there is growing drought in winter wheat areas of the U.S., Hackett says is watching growing season weather as the U.S. transitions from a weak La Nina to a weak to moderate El Nino. “The IRI which comes out with dynamic models and statistical models, came out yesterday of all the models and showed there’s a 60 % chance that we’re going to see in El Nino developed by July. The last three months in a row, we’ve seen those numbers go up every single month from 40 % to 50% to 60%, suggesting that we are likely to have an El Niño type of July, which usually means, cooler weather with timely rains. The last time we went through this was 2023, and that’s exactly the weather we had, and we wound up having a pretty decent
crop. So I think we’re looking at a pretty good crop year, especially for the core, you know, growing season, when yield is most impactful to corn and soybeans.” he adds.

Cattle Fall Ahead of Report and Cash Trade
Cattle futures close sharply lower on both live (off 92 to 175) and feeder (off 225 to 272) cattle contracts. The markets saw caution ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report and with a lack of cash trade.

At the time of this close only a small amount of trade had been reported. Northern dressed deals were marked at $388, $7 higher than last week’s weighted average, basis Nebraska. Private sources reported Southern live business marked at $249, $1 higher than the previous week.

The just released February 1 on feed report listed 11.5 million head, down 2% from February 2025. Placements in January totaled 1.74 million head, 5% below last year; marketings in January totaled 1.63 million head, 13% less than the prior year; other disappearance in January totaled 55,000 head, 8% under the same time last year. Today’s slaughter totaled 89,000 head, 3,000 more than last week, but 19,000 less than a year ago. There are no cattle reported to be slaughtered on Saturday. This brings the weekly total to 516,000 head, 25,000 lower than the prior week, and down 49,000 head from 2025.

Soybeans Bounce on Biofuels Hopes: Corn and Cattle Consolidate

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 21:32:07 GMT

Soybeans and bean oil bounced on Tuesday with corn lower and wheat ending mixed. Cattle were mostly lower as well as milk futures.

Soybeans and Bean Oil Bounce on Biofuels Hopes
Soybeans and soybean oil saw a higher day on Tuesday driven by hopes President Trump would make a biofuels policy announcement regarding 45Z or the RVO proposal while speaking in Iowa after the market close. Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says the market is looking for another demand story with exports running behind a year ago and China completing their 12 MMT soybean purchase agreement.

China Done Buying U.S. Soybeans?
Blohm says China may be done buying U.S. soybeans until at least August as that is their normal seasonal pattern. Currently they have switched over buying cheaper Brazil soybeans as the new harvest is coming to market. News reports quoted private China buyers that stated China had bought 25 cargoes of Brazil beans for March and April delivery. When China comes back to the U.S. for soybeans it is unclear if they will be working on the 25 MMT purchase commitments or not. Currently, Blohm is skeptical about China’s willingness to buy 25 MMT in the next year.

South American Crop Estimates Being Watched
Hot dry conditions in parts of Argentina have been watched by the markets and at least some private estimates are starting to recognize some yield loss as a result. Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentina corn and soybean estimates by 2 MMT. Meanwhile, he and other private firms continue to inch up the Brazilian crop and he raised his production estimate 1 MMT to 179 MMT while AgRural’s latest forecast is at 181 MMT. So Blohm says there will need to be more sustained weather stress and production loss to really lower the crop size and get the markets attention.

Soybeans Still in a Trading Range
The technical picture for soybeans continues to show the market struggling to get through the 200-day moving average resistance area on the charts basis March and Blohm says she doesn’t see too much that can change that in the near term.

Corn Drifts Despite Strong Export Demand
Corn futures drifted on Tuesday unable to follow the strength in the soybean market. Blohm says it was also disappointing that a flash sale of 4.33 million bu. of corn sold to unknown destinations was unable to support the corn market. There was also a sale of 12 million bu. sale of sorghum to unknown destinations, one of the largest single buys in nearly a decade. Could this be China? She says it is very likely China is behind the sorghum purchase but she thinks they could even be buying corn.

Corn Sees Range Bound Trade
Corn has also been trading in a new lower price range since the January WASDE report. Blohm says the market is stuck between strong support at $4.10 and resistance in the $4.30 to $4.35 area. She says corn may be unable to break above that level without a problem with the second crop corn in Brazil but that is going to be a couple of months down the road. The bottom side of the trading range should be well supported by strong end user demand, especially exports.

Wheat Also Stuck
Wheat futures traded both sides of steady Tuesday but continue to consolidate under last week’s highs. The market saw some short covering with concerns about winter kill but that fear has eroded and so will the market prices according to Blohm. She says demand has been strong on the export front but not strong enough to chew through burdensome global supplies.

Cattle Consolidate Ahead of Report, Cash
Cattle futures consolidated under Monday’s highs which served as technical resistance on the charts. The market may trade sideways awaiting higher cash trade again this week and ahead of the USDA Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Report. The bulls will be looking for confirmation of the tight supplies but also news of any herd rebuilding on the horizon.

Milk Futures Pause After Limit Up Move
Class 3 milk futures were slightly lower on Tuesday, consolidating after some limit up moves on Monday. Blohm says the market rallied with some better prices for cash butter and cheese. She says futures have also priced in USDA’s production increases that have weighed on the market the last few reports. However, the upside is limited from here in the market.

A Conversation With Ag Secretary Rollins on Labor, Disease and MAHA

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 19:59:30 GMT

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins stuck to streamlining the federal government labor rules to alleviate dairy’s worker crisis and said more aggressive measures are coming to prevent and contain disease, in an interview with Dairy Herd Management. Rollins this week was at the joint annual meeting hosted by National Milk Producers Federation, the United Dairy Board and the United Dairy Industry Association in Arlington, Texas.

While there, she said the H-2A visa program is particularly broken for dairy, which requires year-round support instead of seasonal workers. She also said measures, such as mandatory testing for lactating dairy cattle prior to interstate movement, are not aggressive enough to address modern biosecurity threats.

Below is a summary of Dairy Herd’s 20-minute conversation with Rollins, who discussed labor, disease prevention as well as her feelings on the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.

What Federal Efforts Are in the Works to Ensure Adequate Labor for U.S. Dairies?

One of the central concerns among dairy producers, and the entire industry, is comprehensive immigration reform. To put it in perspective, more than two-thirds of today’s 9.36 million dairy cows are milked by immigrant laborers in the U.S., according to the National Milk Producers Federation.

Currently, the H-2A visa applies strictly to seasonal or temporary labor. Dairy operations, however, require consistent, skilled workers every day of the year. Milking and caring for cows, managing processing facilities and ensuring food safety are daily tasks that don’t pause between seasons. This mismatch leaves dairy farmers and processors nationwide without a legal means to fulfill their guestworker needs.

In addition to the need for year-round help, Secretary Rollins notes farmers must interact with three different federal agencies to use the H-2A program. Moreover, the costs associated with securing labor have significantly increased, with reports from farmers in south Texas indicating average hourly costs, including transportation and housing, reaching $30 to $35 per hour. Comparatively, similar labor across the border is $2 per hour, Rollins says, illustrating a system that is both unsustainable and inherently unfair.

Ideally, any H-2A program changes will reduce costs and red tape, but comprehensive solutions ultimately require congressional action.

In addition to visa programs, Secretary Rollins says the current administration remains focused on sealing borders and mass deportations.

“Everyone understands the dynamics of an open border, and the millions and millions, we’re unable to count how many, that crossed during the last administration. The President’s No. 1 promise as a candidate in 2022 through 2024 was sealing the border and mass deportations,” she says. “Looking at this challenge through the lens of understanding labor is absolute when we can’t feed ourselves, combined with where we are in terms of immigration, those are the nuances.”

How is the Administration Addressing Threats to Animal Ag?
On day 1, after being sworn in as Secretary of Ag, Rollins was briefed on HPAI . She made it clear that while some measures, such as mandatory testing for lactating dairy cattle prior to interstate movement , had been enacted, a broader and more aggressive approach is necessary. Recognizing that maintaining the status quo was insufficient, a comprehensive strategy was essential — not just from USDA but across the entire federal government.

“I realize there are lots of opinions on my boss, President Trump, but I think the one thing that most people would agree on is that he leaves it all in the field. And, that we have to do everything we can for this moment that we were given to fix a very broken system, whatever that system may look like, in this case, which is animal disease,” Rollins says.

In February 2025, the Trump administration set forth a five-point plan to combat HPAI . Rollins notes the dairy sector, in particular, showcased remarkable adaptability to HPAI threats, demonstrating industry resilience and proactive measures.

Significant investments, such as a $100 million innovation grant , have been allocated to explore vaccines and therapeutic solutions. However, the complexities of viral mutations necessitate caution, especially regarding vaccination strategies, to prevent potentially more dangerous strains from emerging.

“I think we’re going to make more progress than perhaps has been made. Having said that, it’s a virus and the virus always wins,” she says, noting they are worried about New World screwworm and took aggressive actions to combat that by closing several ports.

“We’ve not imported new animals, which is one of the reasons beef prices are up, but we are looking now to figure out how to start reopening ports. I think we’ve gotten our arms around exactly what the problem is,” she says. “We’re building out new sterile fly facilities, which is the only way we eradicated it 30 to 40 years ago, but we have a really good system in place.”

Rollins shares collaborations with international counterparts are stronger, creating an unprecedented partnership with Mexican authorities to manage and preempt future animal agriculture outbreaks effectively. Enhanced border protocols, including disinfection and ivermectin treatments for imports, underscore a commitment to protecting livestock health.

“I feel confident that we are aggressively attacking all pieces of NWS,” she says.

What Does the MAHA Movement’s Mean for Dairy?
The “Make America Healthy Again” movement aims to revamp the nation’s food system, and Rollins offers reassurance dairy products at the forefront.

“Health care costs too much. We’re not getting the care we need, especially to vulnerable populations. How do we fix that?” she asks. “Over the last year, it is completely flipped to, what are Americans eating? What are we serving in our schools? What are we serving in our SNAP program, which 42 million Americans are on the food stamp program.”

While the current economic situation is troubling, Rollins is confident in the long-term potential for profitability and sustainability in the dairy industry.

“What milk, cheese and other dairy products mean as we completely and fundamentally shift our entire food system is our dairy industry is at the very front tip of the spear,” she says, noting the response markets are answering and the dairy industry, too, with the $11 billion in new processing plants, U.S. dairy is riding a wave of momentum that is fueled by consumer demand.

“In the long term, I’m not sure there is an agriculture industry that has more to gain and that will see more of a pivot toward real profitability and real sustainability than this [dairy] industry. I could not be more excited to help lead on that,” she says.

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Soybeans Soar as China Deal Close, Pulling Grains Up: Cattle Melt Down

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 20:36:00 GMT

Grains ended higher on Monday led by soybeans. Cattle and hog futures were sharply lower, with a higher day in milk futures.

Soybeans Soar on Possible China Deal

Grain markets staged a rally on Monday and Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says soybeans led the charge on news over the weekend that the U.S. and China had reached a framework agreement that included “substantial purchases” of U.S. soybeans.

“We don’t have any details yet,” says Blohm, but the market was optimistic about any purchases as China has not bought any soybeans for the new crop market year amid the trade war.

January soybeans made new highs for the move, up nearly $.25 and closed right at $10.85, with March up $.22 at $10.95 1/2, right up against key resistance on the daily charts she says.

“And looking ahead towards the March contract, the March contract was able to get to $11, but the significance is that this resistance area that these soybean prices are at, it was the high not only from right now, but back in June and also from back in February. So it’s going to take some specific fundamental news to get the market to go through resistance,” she explains.

That news would include confirmation of soybean purchases on Thursday when President Trump meets with China’s President Xi in South Korea.

How Many Bushels of Soybeans Could China Buy?

But the size of China’s purchases of U.S. soybeans will also matter, according to Blohm.

“China needs about 10 million metric tons of soybeans yet for December and January, which is about 360 million bushels,” she explains.

A two month supply is less than half of the 800 million bushels of U.S. soybeans China bought in the 2024-25 marketing year.

Will a Deal Get Signed?

However, China has not officially confirmed that President Xi will meet with President Trump on Thursday at the APEC summit in South Korea, so it’s not a done deal yet.

Blohm says she’s hopeful, but cautious an agreement will get signed. “It wouldn’t surprise me if we see either President Trump or President Xi do something dramatic at the last minute because they like that attention and they like that flare. So I’m cautious. And so I feel like with beans at resistance levels on Monday’s trade, if we don’t see any fresh news, we’ll probably see the market pull back a little bit as the week goes on.”

Corn Follows Soybeans

Corn futures were up $.05 to $.07 following the rally in soybeans and wheat but also getting a push from strong export inspections at 46.8 million bushels, according to Blohm.

Here again December corn was stopped out around $4.30 which is a significant resistance area on the charts.

Blohm says to get above that level not only will soybeans need to see a chart breakout on a China deal, but the corn market will need confirmation of lower yields.

“I think national corn yield is probably down around 179, 180 bushels just based on client conversations,” she explains, “And our export data is also running well ahead of last year based on export inspections which should be able to pull ending stocks to around 1.8 billion bushels.”

Wheat Futures Higher on Short Covering

Wheat futures closed higher in all three classes with help from corn and soybeans but also seeing short covering by the funds and outright technical buying.

“When you look at the wheat chart, wheat is cheap. And if you look at a continuous monthly chart that goes back about 20 years, Last week, wheat had tested major support on a 20 -year chart of an uptrend line. So we’re seeing the bargain buyers come in,” she adds.

The market did get a bit of a fundamental push from strong weekly export inspections at 9.5 million bushels. Total commitments now sit at 421 million bushels, up nearly 20% from last year.

Cattle Futures Melt Down With Deferred Feeders Limit Down

Live and feeder cattle futures melted down on Monday on technical selling, with deferred feeder cattle futures closing down the expanded limits of $13.75.

Several of the deferred live cattle contracts also touched limited down the expanded $10.75 limit during the session but managed to close off those levels.

Blohm says,"The funds are taking their balls and going home as they are spooked by the move by the Trump administration to lower beef prices.”

Brazil Beef Tariffs to Ease?

Friday she says the market was concerned about the possibility of the U.S. resuming feeder cattle imports from Mexico as their Ag Minister is scheduled to meet with USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins to discuss reopening the border.

The final straw was word on Monday that the president of Brazil had been guaranteed by President Trump the two countries would reach a deal which could lower the 50% additional tariffs on beef imports and allow trim back into the U.S..

Where Do Cattle Futures Find Support??

Blohm says live cattle futures held their 100 day moving averages on Monday but the feeder cattle futures closed above those critical chart areas.

“December live cattle closed below the 100 -day moving average, almost limit down. And the feeder cattle finishing limit down on expanded limits, November feeders are now sitting on the 100 -day moving average,” she explains.

So she thinks the market is at a pivotal point where it could see additional pressure before seeing a bounce and the real question will be how much of a recovery could be in store?

Milk Futures Rally Over $1 in a Week

November Class III milk futures were up $1.20 last week and extended gains again on Monday.

Blohm says the milk futures are following strong cheese prices. “Yeah, it comes down to better cheese prices and some firmer butter values that have been out there. So the milk market had been oversold from a technical perspective. It had tested some recent lows and some bargain buying came in. Cheese demand is really hot, of course, heading into the holiday season, which has been supportive to the milk futures as well.”

She says the dollar plus rally the last week or so has been welcomed by dairy producers.

Why Dairy Is Dominating: America's New Billion-Dollar Ag Success Story

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 11:33:04 GMT

The U.S. dairy industry is in the midst of a record-breaking boom — fueled by premium beef-on-dairy calves, historic investments in processing plants and surging demand for protein both at home and abroad.

Beef-on-Dairy: A Revenue Stream That’s Reshaping the Market

Dairy farmers across the U.S. aren’t just milking cows — they’re tapping into a lucrative side market. Record cattle prices are giving rise to “beef-on-dairy,” a crossbreeding trend that’s bringing in premium prices and reshaping the value chain.

“I think it is an enormous revenue stream for dairy farmers,” said Gregg Doud, president and CEO of the National Milk Producers Federation (NMPF). “The number I hear is about $1,400 for that black day-old calf. As the old beef guy, I think that’s going to be there for at least another year or so — maybe more.”

The result, Doud says, is the dairy industry is “hitting on all cylinders,” as dairy producers capitalize on strong beef genetics and elevated cattle values to diversify income.

New Wave of Investment

At the same time, the U.S. is seeing a level of investment in dairy processing never before witnessed in American agriculture.

“It really is $10 billion — 2023, 2024, 2025, 2026 — in new dairy processing investment in the U.S.,” Doud said. “There’s nothing like it in the history of U.S. agriculture, of any commodity, anywhere in the world.”

Dairy’s $10 billion in investment in dairy processing over the next three years spans across the country.

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According to Michael Dykes, president and CEO of the International Dairy Foods Association (IDFA), more than $11 billion is flowing into 53 new or expanded dairy manufacturing facilities across 19 states, from New York to Texas to Idaho. These projects are slated to come online between 2025 and 2028.

“Investment follows demand,” Dykes says. “It’s phenomenal — the scale and scope of what’s happening right now.”

Production Rising to Meet Global Appetite

Farmers are responding to those signals. USDA data shows U.S. milk production is up nearly 5% year over year, and the agency projects another 27 billion pounds of milk by 2034.

Exports have also surged, reaching a record $8.2 billion last year.

“I can’t tell you how many meetings I went to where people said, ‘We’re scared to death there won’t be enough milk,’” Dykes recalls. “I said, don’t fret for one moment — dairy farmers hear the market calling for milk. Milk will come.”

America’s Dairy Demand Hits Record Highs

Domestic demand is booming too. Americans are consuming an average 661 pounds of dairy per person per year — the highest ever recorded.

“Cheese is driving the bus,” Dykes said. “We’re eating about 42 pounds of cheese per person per year — and pizza has clearly contributed to that.”

But it’s not just cheese. Butter, yogurt, premium ice cream and even milk itself are seeing renewed strength.

“Milk has been trending downward for the last few years,” Dykes said. “But even last year, milk took a turn up — led by whole milk, high-protein milk and lactose-free options.”

The Protein Craze Powering Dairy’s Momentum

Behind this surge is one key word: protein.

“The demand for protein globally is unbelievable,” Doud says. “Everywhere I go, I tell people — we’re having a moment here on the dairy-side of the equation.”

Doud notes dairy’s protein-rich products — from cheese to whey — are meeting consumer demand both domestically and internationally.

“We’re up 2% this year in volume, 16% in value,” he says. “Global demand for dairy is rolling, and we are right in the hunt.”

Dykes agrees, pointing out the “protein craze” isn’t just helping beef and pork — it’s boosting dairy too.

“Most of the products that have ‘protein added’ are dairy-derived proteins, like whey from cheese plants,” he says. “Consumers globally cannot get enough protein. Dairy has a protein that’s highly digestible and fits perfectly with the health and wellness mood of this country. We’re even adding protein to ice cream.”

A Growing Industry with a Rural Footprint

The dairy industry’s impact stretches far beyond store shelves. Dykes says the U.S. now has 1,200 processing plants, employing 3 million people, generating $200 billion in wages and paying $83 billion in state and local taxes.

“These plants are going into rural communities — where the milk is produced,” Dykes adds. “That’s where the jobs and opportunities are being created.”

Texas, South Dakota and Kansas are seeing the largest waves of new investment, with New York emerging as a new processing hub.

Labor: The Industry’s Biggest Challenge

Even with growth on nearly every front, one major hurdle remains: labor.

“The administration is working on short-term solutions through the Department of Labor — mainly H-2A or seasonal programs,” Doud explains. “But that really doesn’t do anything for us on the dairy side because we need year-round help.”

He says lasting change will require Congressional action.

“We have to have Congress change the law,” Doud says. “House Ag Committee Chairman G.T. Thompson is working on this, but it’s a big lift. We always get stuck on the 60-vote issue in the Senate. We’ve got to make another run at this.”

Doud remains hopeful a political breakthrough could come — much like the immigration reforms of the late 1980s — to finally deliver a sustainable labor solution for dairy.

America’s Dairy Future

From booming exports to billion-dollar investments, the dairy sector is on a trajectory few could have predicted a decade ago. Industry leaders say if trade and labor challenges can be addressed, the U.S. will continue to cement its place as a global dairy powerhouse for years to come.

“We’re hitting on all cylinders right now,” Doud says. “And if we can keep that momentum going, there’s no limit to how far U.S. dairy can go.”

Grains Rally on China and Trade Aid News: Cattle Collapse

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 20:30:29 GMT

Grains were higher on Thursday’s close with livestock and milk futures mostly lower.

Soybeans Extend Rally on China News

Bryan Doherty, Total Farm Marketing, says soybeans extended gains off of Wednesday’s reversal on technical buying and short covering.

However, the market was still trading optimism about a China deal or at least soybean purchases after President Trump posted he and President Xi would be meeting at the APEC Summit and would address their lack of buying.

Trade Aid Announced

Secretary of Treasury Scott Bessent also said during a CNBC interview Thursday morning that the federal government would support American farmers affected by China’s decision to halt purchases of U.S. soybeans.

The official announcement with the specifics of the aid package is expected on Tuesday, October 7 .

The Wall Street Journal reported the administration is considering providing $10 billion or more in aid to U.S. farmers as the agriculture sector warns of economic fallout from his far-reaching tariffs.

It could be paid for with tariff revenues.

Doherty says that will effectively keep more soybeans off the market as farmers don’t have to sell at lower prices to meet their financial obligations.

Lower Soybean Yields Also Supportive

He thinks more harvest reports are indicating lower soybean yields and that is playing into the idea that yields are not the 53.6 bu. that USDA estimated in September.

Doherty is pegging national yield at around 52 bu. per acre due to the dry finish for many farmers in the Corn Belt.

StoneX lowered their soybean yield by .7 bu.

Corn Follows Soybeans

Corn futures extended gains following the rally in soybeans and soybean meal, but also after bouncing off support at the 50% retracement level on December.

Lower Corn Yields Supportive

However, Doherty thinks just like soybeans the market is factoring in lower yields as many harvest reports have been disappointing compared to expectations due to disease and a poor finish.

Wheat a Follower

Wheat futures ended higher saw some short covering and technical buying after new contract lows on Wednesday but likely saw some spillover from higher corn and soybeans.

Cattle Futures Collapse

The cattle futures ended lower with big losses in the feeder cattle futures.

Doherty says uncertainty about the government shutdown and sharply lower Choice boxed beef values both played a role.

Choice beef is down nearly $8 in the last two sessions and has corrected over $50 off the highs.

Lower cash trade did not help with good volume in the North at $230 and dressed at $360, down $5.

Social media posts indicating the reopening of the Mexican border would happen in November pressed the feeder futures too.

Milk Futures Losing Steam

After a nearly $1.50 per hundred weight rally in the Class 3 milk futures the market saw a correction on Thursday.

Doherty says milk futures see to be losing steam or momentum.

Consumer demand is tepid and milk production is up over 3% and that is also keeping a lid on the market.