New World Screwworm

“Report, Don’t Hide It”: Experts Urge Rapid Action When Suspecting New World Screwworm

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 22:13:57 GMT

As New World screwworm edges closer to the U.S., industry leaders urge producers to shift from worry to action.

Early detection, prompt reporting and treatment — backed by coordinated surveillance along the border — will be critical to keeping this treatable pest contained. Ranches are tightening calving seasons , upgrading working facilities and revisiting parasite control plans with their veterinarians. The core message to the fight against NWS: nothing replaces “eyes on animals.”

“We’ve been preparing for the possibility of screwworms emerging back in Texas for the past year,” says Jason Sawyer, East Foundation chief science officer. “We have decided to take the attitude of preparedness. We expect we’re going to have it. How can we best manage it and best mitigate and really, how do we minimize the impact while we weather the storm?”

The Breakthrough Symposium: NWS Preparedness panel (pictured l to r) are: Jason Sawyer, East Foundation; Dr. TR Lansford III, Texas Animal Health Commission; Dr. Diane Kitchen, Florida Department of Agriculture; Stephen Diebel, Texas beef producer and Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association president; and Dr. Megan Schmid, USDA-APHIS.

(Angie Stump Denton)

Sawyer participated in a panel during the The Breakthrough Symposium: NWS Preparedness, hosted by Merck Animal Health. The panelists didn’t debate whether NWS will arrive — they spoke as if it is already on the way. For producers, that means decisions must be made months in advance: adjusting breeding and calving windows to avoid peak risk, investing in better handling facilities and building a clear response plan with veterinarians. Combined with federal and state surveillance using fly traps, animal inspections and producer reports, these risk‑based steps can help ensure that when NWS appears, it is found fast, hit hard and kept from spreading.

With cattle markets at all‑time highs, panelists warn NWS must be managed in a way that protects both animal health and commerce. Movement controls, inspection and treatment protocols, and animal disease traceability are being designed to regionalize the problem — not shut the industry down.

Here are seven key takeaways from the panel discussion:

1. Prepare, Don’t Panic

New World Screwworm is a serious but manageable threat with proper planning and coordination.

“This isn’t a ‘sell the ranch and get out of business’ problem,” Sawyer summarizes. “This is a ‘let’s figure out the best way to move forward and minimize impact.’” Today’s challenge is to rebuild the “lost muscle memory” with modern tools and a risk‑based mindset. That means planning calving seasons with NWS risk in mind, enhancing parasite control without driving resistance and being ready to isolate, treat and recheck any affected animals in close coordination with veterinarians. The sooner producers start planning, the smaller and shorter the “storm” will be for everyone.

Some strategies producers should consider include:

Get a premise ID now, if you don’t have one.
Consider shifting calving and processing into lower‑fly windows.
Manage wounds differently . Any break in the skin — navels, castration, dehorning, tags and tick bites — becomes a high‑risk site once NWS is in the area.

Dr. Diane Kitchen, a cattle rancher and Florida Department of Agriculture veterinarian manager, bovine and cervidae programs, suggests producers consider using a preventative or at least a protectant to the area to minimize the chance of an infestation occurring.

Sawyer, who manages ranches near the U.S.-Mexico border, explains. “We’re trying to work with the weather instead of against it and think about comprehensive parasite control strategies that can minimize that risk for newborn calves, knowing that we’re unlikely to be able to put our hands on every one of them as they hit the ground.”

2. Eyes on Animals, Surveillance is Central.

Nothing replaces routine, disciplined visual checks — especially of newborns and any animal with a wound. Kitchen says preparation starts with understanding NWS targets wounds and certain high‑risk areas. The fly’s preference is umbilical cords, she stresses.

“It can also affect certain mucus membranes,” she explains. “The corners of the eye, the genital tract. In particular, cows that are calving, they’re attracted to the same umbilical cord scent.” External wounds can be tiny, internal damage massive. “The wound itself externally may be very small,” Kitchen says. “The size of a quarter. But then when you go to treat there may be gallons of maggots within underneath.”

Producers who have dealt with the pest often describe it as a smell you’ll never forget , noting that the stench of a calf infested with New World Screwworm is often the first warning sign.

Dr. Megan Schmid, USDA-APHIS Cattle Health Center assistant director, explains there are two types of surveillance:

Active surveillance: Fly traps along the border, border inspectors and Wildlife Services checking animals
Passive surveillance: Producers, vets, shelters and others seeing maggots/myiasis and reporting. “The traps are helpful,” she says. ”But they’re not as sensitive as the animal inspection. So really, that’s the key part: everybody looking for the infestations in animals.”

Producers can use technology to get more “eyeballs” on cattle and keep spread to a minimum. Game cameras, virtual fencing and behavior tags can help producers find problems sooner when labor is tight.

Because these infestations can be deceptive, producers should learn to identify the specific signs of New World Screwworm , such as unusual discharge or larvae deep within living tissue.

3. Report First, Don’t Hide It.

NWS is a reportable foreign animal disease. Early reporting is critical and legally required. Officials would rather investigate 1,000 false alarms than miss one real case.

Kitchen stresses failure to report will create many more flies.

“Failure to report results in multiple generations of additional flies, which just dramatically increases the population that’s available to impact everybody,” she explains. “If you think that because you didn’t report yours, that it’s not going to be found. It will be found because it’ll be found in something else.”

She encourages producers to think about the impact on their neighbor.

If the roles were reversed, she asks, “If you hear that somebody, your neighbor, is one that didn’t report, how happy are you going to be with them?”

4. Vet Relationships Are Essential.

A veterinarian is central to preparation and treatment plan. For wound care, antibiotics, pain management and access to tools, a veterinary client–patient relationship is vital. Treatment is about parasite removal and wound management, guided by vets.

Panel members explain part of being prepared is sitting down now with your veterinarian and discussing: “If we get screwworm, what’s our plan? How often are we looking at cattle, what products are we going to use, and what do we do about movements?”

Read more about how NWS is an infestation, not an infection.

5. Wildlife Matters in This Fight.

Wildlife are a major reservoir and economic driver, and can suffer large population impacts without control. Kitchen predicts in infested areas 70% to 80% of white-tailed fawn crops could be lost.

“Our wildlife populations are both so much more abundant than they were in the 1950s and so much more valuable than they were in the 1950s,” Sawyer says. “Unfortunately, the opportunity to intervene for wildlife is much smaller. There’s really not very many strategies that are viable, and so surveillance and monitoring become really our front line of defense in terms of our wildlife populations.”

He suggests the best way to protect wildlife is aggressive control in livestock to reduce environmental burden.

6. Quarantines Are Tools, Not Punishments.

The goal is continuity of business with safeguards , not shutting down commerce. Regulators are trying to balance containment with commerce. The goal is to maintain the “speed of commerce” while using structured movement protocols to protect markets and disease-free areas.

“It’s not going to be business as usual, but it’s going to be business is still possible,” Schmid says. “The focus is: how do we allow safe movements, not restrict and stop business.”

She says the New World Screwworm Response Playbook includes guidance documents and explains the quarantine/movement framework.

Stephen Diebel, Texas beef producer and Texas & Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association president, encourages producers not to think in terms of a hard quarantine. A structured process of treatment, surveillance, inspection and certification will allow movement.

Dr. TR Lansford III, Texas Animal Health Commission assistant state veterinarian and deputy executive director, encourages producers to reference the lessons learned from fever ticks as a strategy for dealing with NWS. He notes experience with fever ticks has shaped how Texans think about area quarantines, treatment protocols and continuity of business.

7. More Tools in the Toolbox.

Panelist members summarize a holistic ectoparasite program using modern products plus strong producer education is a main NWS defense strategy.

Kitchen stress producers and veterinarians have many more tools than they did back in the ’60s and ’70s when NWS was last endemic in the U.S.

Producers can find a list of approved treatment and prevention strategies on the FDA website .

Sawyer suggests producers work with their veterinarians to plan prevention and treatment strategies. He also stresses the importance of considering resistance management.

“We don’t want to react to an emergent threat in a way that then creates problems with a persistent pest that’s already present,” he says.

Read More About How Sterile Flies are the No. 1 Tool to Fight NWS:
Doubling the Defense: USDA’s “Male-Only” Fly Breakthrough to Transform Screwworm Eradication
Border Remains Closed: Sterile Fly Production Facility Groundbreaking Next Step in Screwworm Fight

While NWS is a serious and emotionally charged threat, panelists remind producers the U.S. has pushed it back before — and can do it again.

“This pest existed here before, and it has been eradicated from the U.S. before,” Sawyer summarizes. “We know how to do it. We just have to sort of build the capacity and muscle to get it done again when we need to.”

Grain and Livestock Rally With Risk On Buying, Weather Concerns

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 21:34:50 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended higher on Monday.

Risk on Buying
The grain and livestock futures saw commodity wide speculative buying to start the week according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.

The markets had a risk on tone due to the lack of resolution to the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz but weather also drove the market.

“And when you really don’t hear bullish stories to drive the market, it probably is more just fund direction. And the funds have been buying everything recently, right? You know, a little bit of wheat even. They finally bought corn back again after getting out of a lot of their longs earlier. I think the weak longs are out. They’re back in buying. Even soybeans today, really good buying, which was surprising seeing how long they already are in that soybean complex.”

Funds Length in Soybean Complex a Concern?
When you add up the fund long position in the soybean complex it is already pushing over 470,000 contracts.

So do the funds keep pushing the long side of the soybean complex?

Bosse says, “I guess today the answer to that is yes, they will. That’s surprising though to me because that’s like the fifth largest combined they’ve ever been. We combine all of them, but you look today, all of them were up. Soybean meal was up, soybean oil was up. Usually you see those contradict each other a little bit, right, and spreads too. We’re entering kind of a different era in soybeans where crush and soybean oil is the strongest demand. It used to be meal was the biggest demand. Now meal is kind of the byproduct we kind of have to get rid of. And that’ll probably be through our export market.”

He says he’s not as bearish soybeans as he once was.

“I still think export demand is going to have to get trimmed down a little bit by USDA, but not the 100 to 150 million bushels I was threatening before,” Bosse adds.

Frost in Argentina
On Monday meal was the leader on short covering but also due to possible frost or freeze damage to the soybean crop in Argentina as temperatures dipped Monday morning.

Bosse says, “Remember, Argentina is still the lead exporter in soybean meal throughout the world, so if you did hurt that crop at all, it’s soybean meal that should react first here. Now, I really question how much damage, but it’s one of those, we’re the futures market, we’re going to put the premium first, and then they’ll ask those questions about how much production was really damaged. The reason I’m saying that is they’re harvesting some, and most U.S. producers know, well, if you’re harvesting frost, isn’t going to really hurt the beans. But of course, those are big countries in South America, North to South. So there’s probably some late maturing soybeans that it could have been dinged for sure,” he explains.

New Crop Soybean Upside Potential?
With an additional 3.5 million more acres of soybeans expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2026 if the U.S. does not get China in buying the 25 million metric tons of new crop soybean promised the ending stocks figure could quickly balloon.

Bosse thinks there will be more acres added to USDA’s estimate in the Prospective Plantings Report and China is still less than certain.

“I really question the whole China buying, even the 25 MMT for new crop. It’s just world stocks are record high and prices are cheaper than U.S. I think Argentina is like $1.20 cheaper than us. Brazil’s like 60 cents cheaper than us. So, it just it doesn’t really make a lot of economic sense for them to come and buy from us. I mean I get there’s the whole lot of political reasons but that can only go so far,” he adds.

So, he is looking at put options to hedge new crop soybeans.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn futures made new highs for the move on Monday following wheat and soybeans but Bosse thinks the market has its own story.

“You know, the war in Iran, even though I am really tired of reporting about it in the Trump posts back and forth, it’s still ongoing. The Strait is
still closed for the most part. That means higher fertilizer, higher fuel prices for the world. To me, that’s a big story that corn should have rallied. quite a bit more than this for the last month and we just haven’t you know not to mention the whole you know will we get all the acres planted,” he says.

States like North Dakota look cold and wet in the 8-14 day forecast and they aren’t alone.

“I wouldn’t say we’re late or delayed planting. I don’t think we have to rally on that just yet but it’s starting to raise my eyebrows a little bit they’re like oh we could have an issue here. So, I think corn has its own story and should continue to rally higher,” he says.

New Crop Corn Adding Input Premium?
New crop or December corn is closing in on the March high of $4.98 1/2 and it could be putting in some input premium according to Bosse.

“I mean, that’s where the supply could change a lot in new crop, right? World stocks are actually like at a seven or eight year low. Our export demand is phenomenal. So if we decrease acres a little bit or we don’t use as much fertilizer as we should, a new crop situation could be quite tight, maybe like a 1.6 to 1.7 for an ending stock. Well, that’s fairly bullish and this market should rally,” he explains.

However, he says some times the market just sees bull spreading. “Because people just want to buy the old crop bushels instead of even worrying about the new crop supply. But you’re right, it’s the new crop that should put a premium in, but I doubt we’ll see it.”

Lack of Farmer Selling
Meanwhile, July corn did see a chart breakout and that could be due to the lack of farmer selling because of farmers focusing on planting.

“Absolutely, 100%. Nobody wants to go fire up a truck and haul any grain in right now. Everyone’s trying to get the crop planted. June is more the month where, okay, let’s empty bins out and that. So no, farmer selling has dried up. Sadly, I can see nationwide the base is improving. It really isn’t up here for us in the Northern Plains. We’re still at wide basis up here. But like you said, that’s kind of part of having that big old crop and a lot of farmer supply is still sitting out there,” he says.

Wheat Makes Fresh Highs
The wheat market also made more new highs for the move adding weather premium, especially with the drought in the Southern Plains.

How much more weather premium does the market need to add?

Bosse says, “I could actually see it going up quite a bit more. I could see KC wheat obviously getting to $7.00 and I could see it really on a chart a continuous chart banner going to $7.50 but that’s if it doesn’t rain.”

If it does rain he thinks the market will start trying to price in a lower yield number.

“And if you start talking to national wheat yield below 42 bushels an acre, well, it gets pretty tight in the U.S. Now, sadly, Michelle, I think we could just ration export demand and just bring it all back later. But it’s helping to push like Minneapolis wheat higher, which is the wheat that’s grown in my area up here. And I like that. I’m looking at it as an opportunity to start getting hedges in place,” he says.

Spring Wheat Planting Delays
The spring wheat market is concerned about getting all of the acres planted and already started with historically low acres to begin with.

“Right, we don’t have a lot of wiggle room there. We didn’t start up with high acres and we can trim some off. It sounds like from the west of me, like closer to the river, we’ve gotten a lot of the spring wheat in. Some of it even coming up, looking nice. But North Dakota, from the clients I talked to up there, not a lot of activity yet. It’s just been very damp soils. They just haven’t gotten going. But I think we’ll see that in the crop progress report this afternoon. And so, you know, the premium’s probably justified for now,” he states.

Cattle Up a Third Day
Cattle futures were up for a third day and are still recovering off the lows scored last Thursday.

Bosse says part of the reason is the market is not as concerned about the border reopening to Mexican cattle imports after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona.

“And, you know, some guys are trying to link it back to more screw worm cases being found in Mexico. You know, maybe they’re just not going to open the border now for a while. I had always heard things that the border wasn’t going to be open even until July anyway. And at that point, it was going to be just small stages from west to east. So to me, it shouldn’t affect things like June fat cattle or nearby feeders but you know the market takes that news and runs with it,” he explains.

With that meeting not happening speculation continues to run high on when the border will reopen but for now the market looks stronger.

“This week cash could be higher, boxes are higher, we got some big holidays coming up for beef demand. I’m excited about the market for this week at least,” he says.

Market Bounces Technically
Plus the market also held technically where it needed to.

“We were getting to some little retracement levels that I was watching fairly close. And when this market sells off, I ask myself over time, is this it? Are we done? Are we going to crash back now? But for the umpteenth time in a row now, we were bouncing off support. We corrected the overbought position. Now the question is, can we go back and test the contract highs or even make new contract highs? I guess we’ll have to see here,” he states.

He is also concerned about what happens if screw worm gets to the U.S.

“I’m still worried about it, especially as the temps get warm. It’s going to come across in something, a deer, a raccoon, something it’s going to come across on,” he says.

Hogs Bottoming?
Lean hogs were mostly higher on Monday after higher weekly closes. So is the market trying to bottom?

Bosse thinks technically the market is trying to hold plus the seasonal low usually hit around this time.

“Demand should be stronger here this next month. And, you know, there’s still always these questions about the U.S. production. Sounds like there’s been a lot of disease pressure. It’s really hard to get confirmation on that now anymore, but I’ve heard some of that. Now, don’t
look for China to come and buy any of our pork, though. As far as global supplies, it’s very large and we’re higher priced than the rest of the world,” he adds.

Corn, SRW Wheat Rally on Weather and Exports but is it Sustainable? Cattle Fall

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 21:31:51 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mixed on Monday.

Corn Extends Gains
Corn was higher and extended gains after a higher weekly close last week.

Alan Brugler with A&N Economics says corn got some spillover support from higher crude oil due to the closure of the Strait for Hormuz.

Corn was also following soft red winter wheat and other demand fundamentals.

“I think you’ve got pretty decent support on the ethanol consumption side. You’ve got pretty decent support from the export inspections that came out this morning. We’re still trucking along at 31%, 32% above year ago on shipments. World stocks usage ratio is still pretty snug in corn. So it’s kind of keeping it from going down,” he says.

Weather in Focus?
He says the market was gearing up for planting progress with some talk of delays due to wet conditions in some areas of the corn belt.

“I think we’re talking about weather, but we’re really not trading it that much. It’s early. I mean, we’re looking at planting progress. I think the trade estimates are 11% or 12% percent complete for tonight. To me, that sounds a little tall, but could be accurate. You know, it’s important to have a decent planting progress here just because we think the yields might be lowered with less fertilizer. So you want to get it off to a good start.”

Funds Exit Longs in Corn
Funds sold nearly 55,000 contracts in the corn market as of last Tuesday’s CFTC Commitment of Traders report, which is a big chunk.

What keeps them interested in holding the remaining 160,000 longs they have in the corn market or pushing above chart resistance?

“I think to get them interested, inflation is the easiest way. If you see a weak dollar, you see some stronger inflation indicators, then they want to play commodities a little more aggressively. I think the liquidation is actually pretty healthy. And you have to remember that we watch futures and options combined open interest. We’ve got those May options going off the board here fairly quickly, so that is going to make your numbers go down just because that chunk of business goes away,” he adds.

Frost Damage in Wheat
The wheat market started off higher Sunday night into early Monday in all three wheat classes and then soft red winter wheat futures held gains on concerns about frost damage over the weekend.

“You saw the overnight reaction was pretty positive and then we faded it. I think the the problem is it’s really hard to quantify frost damage. Sometimes you can’t see it and it shows up you know, a week or two later. I mean, if the flag leaf gets frozen and it’s wilted already, that’s easy. But a lot of it tends to be a little more subtle than that. You really can’t show it for two or three weeks. It would be obviously more vulnerable at the end of the month than it is in the middle of the month from a maturity standpoint.”

Plus, he says it was a buy the rumor, sell the fact situation because the market was talking about cold temperatures a week ago.

Hard red winter wheat was up 45 cents last week as well so that class of wheat ended slightly lower seeing some profit taking and spread unwinding.

More Weather Premium Needed in Wheat Prices?
So does the wheat market have enough weather premium or is there more upside potential?

Brugler is optimistic about a continued rally. “I think there is some upside price there. You’re in the time of the year when the global supply is the tightest. The supply is driven heavily by Northern hemisphere harvest. So when you get into April and May, you’re getting into the bottom of the barrel from a global perspective. Typically, that helps the U.S. exports a little bit because we’re sort of the supplier of last resort. World trade is complicated, of course, by the Middle East situation and what Russia is able to do and not able to do.”

He says Russia has one port that has been having issues due to Ukrainian activity so they are under performing on their exports.

However, he thinks the market put in a nine-year cycle low last fall.

“That was expected to be late 2024, 2025. Looked like we hit that. We’ve got a little bit of an upside breakout here.”

He notes that U.S. stocks are still ample, but overall the burden of proof is now on the bears.

Old Crop Soybeans Lower Following Meal
Old crop soybeans were lower again on Monday with the meal market and as funds have slowly been exiting their long positions.

He says soybean oil has been the driver as soybeans are still struggling with the lag in exports.

“I’ve said this several times but I think the oil over time is going to outbid exports for beans and meal is just something you have to get rid of,” he adds.

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
Soybean oil was sharply higher Monday getting spillover from higher crude oil.

“Again, renewable biodiesel or renewable diesel is a big driver there,” Brugler states, “It takes a little bit more bean oil to make than the conventional biodiesel does on a replacement basis. You know, that’s part of the U.S. energy security. I mean, we’re a net exporter of LNG.
We’re a net exporter of crude oil right now. We’re actually benefiting from the interruptions in the Straits of Hormuz, even though you can’t see it in the consumer prices because, you know, the world overall is tight. But bean oil is our buffer there through the biodiesel mechanism,” he explains.

Cattle Fade COF on Technical Selling
Cattle futures opened higher on Monday but could not hold early gains even with the constructive USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Brugler says the market saw technical selling as it got overbought after making all-time highs last week and needs fresh bullish news to continue to rally.

“We bought some $250 cash two weeks ago here and the $248 looks like that was the bulk of the trade last week. Your box beef’s holding up fairly well that’s going to be the main driver is will the consumer pay for the beef?’

He says the Cattle on Feed report did hint at a little heifer retention, with a 1% drop in the percentage of heifers in the feedlot.

“But nobody’s really buying into that given the dry conditions in the plains as far as any major cattle cycle reversal here.”

Did the Market Top Last Week?
Cash trade was slightly lower at $248.02 on the five area weighted average last week, down $.36.

So unless cash trade can move back higher have the cash and futures markets put in a top?

Brugler says, “Many have died trying to call a market top. There’s been a number of them over the last six months where people have said that. But what we don’t have is the actual biology. We don’t have an increase in feeder supplies. We’re not going to get one for a while. The screw worm situation is still a problem in Mexico. So you’re not going to supplement the supply through the Mexican inventory anytime soon, I don’t think.”

He adds that the number will typically get tighter before they get looser.

“In other words, once the cycle turns, you start diverting heifers to pasture, you tighten up those feeder supplies even further, and that translates to a later peak in the fats. The board action doesn’t always agree with that scenario, looking back over 10 or 12 cattle cycles, just because it gets ahead of itself. But the cash market pretty much tracks it,” he adds.

Hogs Bounce After Nine Down Days
Lean hog futures finally saw a bounce after nine lower closes and new lows for the move on Friday but is it sustainable?

Bruger says, “I think it’s a dead cat bounce, whether it’s a one-day, two-day, three-day. After the size of the drop we had, it could be a little larger. The market’s got May futures deliveries coming up here. We’ve still got a little bit of time, but you are going to track somewhat with where the CME index and where the pork cutouts are.”

USDA’s "Male-Only" Fly Breakthrough to Transform Screwworm Eradication

Fri, 10 Apr 2026 15:27:39 GMT

USDA’s Agricultural Research Service (ARS) is advancing the next evolution of the long-trusted sterile insect technique (SIT) to protect U.S. livestock from New World screwworm (NWS) by introducing a 100% male-only sterile fly strain. This breakthrough will effectively double the production capacity of sterile fly facilities without expanding physical infrastructure. By eliminating the production of “useless” female flies, the USDA-ARS innovation aims to push the NWS fly further south, providing a more robust and cost-effective defense for American livestock producers.

A USDA spokesperson explains, “USDA is using gold standard, proven scientific methods to manufacture NWS flies to produce only male flies and increase the efficiency of SIT. USDA is simply making a proven tool even more efficient and effective to better protect America’s farmers and ranchers.”

USDA currently produces sterile flies for dispersal at the COPEG facility in Panama. USDA is also investing $21 million to support Mexico’s renovation of an existing fruit fly facility in Metapa — which will double NWS production capacity once complete.

Moore Air Base: On Time and On Budget for 2026 Production

Dudley Hoskins, USDA under secretary for marketing and regulatory programs, was a guest Tuesday on AgriTalk. He discussed sterile fly dispersal efforts.

“We’re doing two things,” he says. “One, the Secretary has us modernizing our infrastructure and our production capacity. She has us working on Moore Air Base, which will be a sterile fly production facility, that when it’s finally complete and at max-capacity production, will be producing about 300 million sterile flies per week. ”

Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden recently reported USDA is on track and on time with regard to the Moore Air Base facility near Edinburg, Texas.

The Science of Stopping the Spread: Why Male-Only Matters

SIT, when paired with surveillance, movement restrictions and education and outreach, is an effective tool for controlling and eradicating NWS. Female NWS flies only mate once in their lives, so if they mate with a sterile male, they lay unfertilized eggs that don’t hatch. Releasing sterile flies just outside of affected areas helps ensure flies traveling to new areas will only encounter sterile mates and will not be able to reproduce.

Hoskins says concurrent to the process at Moore Air Base, USDA is working with its partners at the ARS and Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) to evaluate the genetically-engineered fly — the NovoFly — which would help get more male flies in the sterile fly production facility.

Vaden calls the possibility exciting.

“Basically we’ve been losing half of the production at every facility because what we need are sterile male flies, but of course with nature, half of what you get are female flies, and those to this particular enterprise are useless,” he explains. “Thanks to our agricultural research service, we now have the ability to pump out 100% sterile male flies only, no wastage. That has the effect of doubling production without any change in the available facilities.“

He adds, “We expect to be able, once EPA approves that innovation is safe later this year, to have all those facilities, including the one under construction at Moore Air Base, pumping out 100% sterile male flies, which will make our ability to push this pest back further south where it belongs to take root and begin to have great effect. Not just to hold it, but to push it further south.”

Hoskins summarizes, “All of those things are in motion, all things happening concurrently, and all those will be critical in modernizing our toolbox to take the fight to the screwworm.”

Listen to the conversation on AgriTalk :

Regulatory Road Map: The EPA Public Comment Period

USDA is following established regulatory pathways and submitted to EPA an Emergency Use Exemption and Application for Registration. EPA published the notice of receipt and request for comments in the Federal Register on March 27 and is accepting public comments until April 27 before making a determination.

According to the notice, the application from USDA states: “To register a new pesticide product containing an unregistered pesticide, NovoFly male-only genetically engineered (GE) New World screwworm (NWS) in USDA’s Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) programs. Additionally, the Agency received a Section 18 quarantine emergency exemption application requesting use of the same pesticide to maintain broad suppression of and help prevent the pest from moving further northward from Mexico toward the United States.”

EPA is providing the notice in accordance with the Federal Insecticide, Fungicide and Rodenticide Act (FIFRA).

The notice says, “Due to the urgent nature of the emergency, the limited time available to authorize the Section 18 quarantine emergency exemption request and the related FIFRA Section 3 product registration application under review for the same use, EPA is waiving the comment period associated with the emergency exemption request but is soliciting public comment in conjunction with the application for Section 3 product registration of NovoFly.”

To make comments or learn more, visit the EPA website .

Read more about sterile flies and current distribution:

USDA Updates New World Screwworm Response Playbook for Ranchers and Vets

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 21:08:56 GMT

The “ New World Screwworm Response Playbook” was developed as a resource to help animal health officials and responders manage and adapt their response if NWS is found in the U.S. The first draft of the Playbook was released in October 2025.

U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) released an updated Playbook to serve as a comprehensive guide to support coordinated, science-based action should NWS be detected.

“USDA continues to execute Secretary Rollins’ five-pronged plan to keep NWS out of the United States,” says Dudley Hoskins, USDA under secretary for marketing and regulatory programs. “While we are aggressively safeguarding American agriculture and working with Mexico to prevent further northward spread, we must also ensure that our domestic response plans are ready for immediate activation. Strong coordination with states, producers, veterinarians, sportsmen and other partners is essential to achieving that goal.”

Hoskins was a guest Tuesday on AgriTalk. He discussed NWS preventative and response measures, including the sterile fly dispersal efforts.

He explains the goal of the Playbook is to try to balance that constant posture of vigilance, prevention and emergency response coordination.

“We want to be as least disruptive to the industry and commerce as possible,” he explains.

Hoskins stresses APHIS is asking for feedback on version two of the Playbook as they continue to fine-tune the response plan.

“We’re asking that same community of states and industry partners to continue to review the playbook,” he explains. “We want to continue to have those discussions and and those deliberations to improve the can and hopefully perfect have to use it, and hopefully never have to use it.”

Refining the Rules: Key Updates to the 2026 Playbook

The updated Playbook outlines critical science-based strategies for federal, state, tribal and local responders, including how to:

Coordinate response operations
Reduce spread and prevent establishment of NWS in new areas
Manage the pest in infested animals
Implement NWS fly surveillance and control measures
Maintain continuity of business
Support efficient information flow and situational awareness

APHIS has released the updated New World Screwworm Response Playbook - strengthening preparedness via coordination with states, producers, veterinarians, wildlife & other partners.🤝
It guides rapid, science-based action should NWS be detected in the U.S.https://t.co/lgplvaNjDy pic.twitter.com/kq4wKbqkGY
— USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (@USDA_APHIS) April 8, 2026

Collaborative Design: Incorporating Tribal and Industry Expertise

After sharing the draft Playbook in October 2025, APHIS worked to gather feedback from state animal health officials, federal partners, livestock and wildlife industry groups, tribal partners, veterinary organizations and other key stakeholders to prepare the updated version.

According to the APHIS press release , “Their expertise and operational experience were essential in shaping practical, field-ready guidance for real-world response scenarios.”

Based on this feedback, APHIS made several key updates to the Playbook including clarifying and expanding:

Terminology — NWS establishment, suspect, zones, types, phases, quarantines — treatment versus preventative NWS animal drugs and pesticide products
Agency roles, responsibilities and authorities
Animal movement requirements
Wildlife management, including:
- Improved description of roles, responsibilities and authorities related to wildlife
- Added and improved definitions of confined, farmed, and free-ranging wildlife
- Refined guidance on use of antiparasitic drugs and pesticide for use on/in wildlife
- Development guidance on wildlife surveillance

Accessing the Playbook: Resources for Producers and Responders

APHIS updated four supplemental guidance documents that were posted with the draft Playbook and added an additional eight supplemental guidance documents, all referenced in the Playbook .

(USDA APHIS NWS Playbook)

“To ensure continued alignment with state-level plans and industry practices, APHIS will continue to revise the Playbook as preparedness activities advance and evolve,” the release explains. “The agency will continue to work directly with states, territories, tribes, federal agencies, industry wildlife and other partners to refine response tools, strengthen coordination and support joint planning efforts.”

Your Next Reads:

How Will U.S. Producers Maintain Business when New World Screwworm Invades?

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 19:59:34 GMT

With animal disease, prevention and preparation beat panic. Since New World screwworm (NWS) was last eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s, the tools and infrastructure to deal with foreign animal disease have dramatically changed.

Dr. Justin Smith, Kansas animal health commissioner and state veterinarian, during the recent Kansas State University Cattlemen’s Day gave an update on how Kansas and other states are preparing for NWS. The approach is designed to keep producers in business, keep cattle and products moving, and manage NWS in a way that protects both herds and markets.

He says the U.S. animal health officials along with USDA are planning a multistate, coordinated response that aims for consistency across state borders.

Smith summarizes the industry’s preparation to tackle NWS is like a three-legged stool. U.S. producers will be able to maintain business when NWS invades through surveillance, treatment and movement controls.

Surveillance: Eyes on Animals

The first leg of the stool is surveillance. He stresses early detection depends heavily on producers and veterinarians watching animals closely and reporting anything suspicious.

Smith emphasizes they would rather over investigate than miss a case.

“We want to make sure that we err on the side of having to say no on many occasions, versus saying, ‘Yep, this is what we got.’ Eyes on animals is going to be key.”

He was clear this should feel like partnership, not policing.

“They don’t want it to look like Big Brother coming over your shoulder,” he explains. “I hope we want to get this thing quickly.”

Smith explains that once a positive premises is identified, surveillance becomes structured around zones. The infested premises sit at the center, surrounded by an infested zone, an adjacent surveillance zone and a broader fly surveillance area.

The infested zone is 12.4 miles in radius from the infested premises. In this zone, there will be frequent on‑animal checks for wounds and larvae, plus enhanced monitoring in surrounding zones using fly traps and animal observation. The adjacent surveillance zone is another 12.4 miles radius and then there will be a fly surveillance area — an 124-mile radius from the infested premises.

Smith says movements out of the infested zone will require visual inspection for wounds and systemic treatment, including a treatment window of three to 14 days before movement plus a documented certificate of veterinary inspection.

He says the current Kansas response plan aligns with USDA’s playbook and neighboring states’ plans while taking into account specific needs of the Kansas livestock industry.

He stresses the playbook will continue to evolve, and state-by-state implementation may vary, but he says the “zone approach” will be utilized by all states.

Treatment: Limited Tools, Use Strategically

The second leg is treatment. Smith says that after decades without large domestic outbreaks, labeled options are limited.

From the fact that we haven’t had this new tool in our nation, in a large-spread outbreak since the 60s, we don’t have a lot of treatments out there that are labeled for this organism.”

To date, the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) has approved four products for large animals:

He cautions, “The goal is not to go out there and just habitually treat your animals just in case. We want to make sure that we’re utilizing these [products] responsibly. There’s not an unlimited supply out there, and so we want to make sure that it’s available for us when we do need it.”

On a positive premises, Smith says treatment will be mandatory and systematic.

“There will be a quarantine placed on that premises. We’re also going to require a certain level of treatment on that premises,” he explains.

There will be protocols for daily mortality disposal, so carcasses don’t become breeding sites.

“The last thing you want to do is bury an animal that has larvae and has the ability to advance.”

He says treatment is also tied to movement out of infested zones, with most animals needing prophylactic treatment before leaving.

Movement Controls: Targeted, Not Statewide Shutdowns

The third leg is movement control, designed to be precise rather than broad-brush. Smith stresses NWS is an infestation, not an infection , emphasizing it is not a systemic disease problem, but an infestation that still demands strong controls.

He says there will be movement restrictions if a premises falls into an infested region. To move animals out of that zone, there will be steps to follow but movement will not be completely shut down.

He explains some exceptions exist:

Animals moving directly to slaughter can go without pre‑movement treatment, but those animals have to be hanging on the rail within 72 hours.
Baby dairy calves must be treated but can move right away if treatment and navel care are documented.

He says Kansas is also coordinating with neighboring states to create “synergistic” rules, especially for cattle from higher‑risk states such as Texas. Cattle entering Kansas from recognized infested zones will face inspection, treatment requirements and at least 14 days in drylot containment on arrival.

NWS is Not a Food Safety Issue

Smith reassures producers and consumers that NWS is not a meat safety threat.

“This is not a food safety issue,” he says. “If an animal is presented to slaughter, it has a screwworm wound then it has the ability to be trimmed. That carcass will not be condemned. There are no restrictions on any inspected product for food safety reasons.”

Smith summarizes underpinning all three legs is a commitment to dynamic planning and continuity. He notes a revised USDA playbook is forthcoming and that “plans will be a little bit dynamic” as they learn more.

The core message for producers is clear: watch your cattle, report early, use treatments wisely and expect targeted movement controls — not blanket shutdowns — if NWS crosses the border.

USDA Announces Sterile Fly Production Facility Construction Contract

USDA and U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) announced March 9 a construction contract with Mortenson Construction to build a new sterile fly production facility at Moore Air Base in Edinburg, Texas.

This facility is a key component in U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins’ sweeping 5-prong strategy to fight NWS. USACE is partnering with USDA and will provide oversight for the contract, design, engineering and construction of the facility.

“The Army Corps of Engineers is an essential partner in bringing this facility to life and further highlights the Trump Administration’s government-wide effort to fight the New World Screwworm threat in Mexico,” Rollins says. “The Army Corps is the best in the business and their engineering expertise and proven track record in delivering complex projects will help ensure we can build a modern, resilient facility that protects American agriculture from invasive pests for decades to come. This first-of-its-kind facility on U.S. soil will ensure we are not reliant on other countries for sterile flies.”

A sterile fly production facility is a specialized biosecure complex where NWS flies are raised and sterilized using irradiation and then released into targeted areas.

USDA currently produces about 100 million sterile flies per week at the COPEG facility in Panama and disperses them within and just north of affected areas in Mexico. In addition to the COPEG facility in Panama, USDA invested $21 million to support Mexico’s renovation of an existing fruit fly facility in Metapa , which will double NWS production capacity once complete.

With ongoing support from APHIS technical experts, Mexico anticipates sterile fly production will begin at this facility in summer 2026. The new facility at Moore Air Base will be the only U.S.-based sterile fly production facility and will work in tandem with facilities in Panama and Mexico to help eradicate the pest and protect American agriculture.

USDA and USACE will break ground on this new facility later this spring, after initial planning and development meetings with the new contractor. By November 2027, the production facility at Moore Air Base is expected to reach its initial goal of producing 100 million sterile flies per week. After that, construction will continue at the facility to increase production with the long-term goal of producing 300 million sterile flies per week.

Grains Consolidate on EU Tariff Fears: Cattle Try to Recover

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 21:54:10 GMT

Grains ended lower on Tuesday with cattle higher and lean hog futures mixed.

Grains See Risk-Off Selling
Grains futures consolidated on Tuesday with risk-off selling tied to outside market concerns regarding possible EU tariffs and retaliation according to Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures. Over the weekend President Trump threatened to impose 10% tariffs on goods from eight EU countries starting Feb. 1 if Europe does not sell Greenland to the U.S. That tariff rate would go up to 25% on June 1. The EU fired back with talk of retaliatory measures. Sloup says the rising trade tensions caused a lower day in the equity markets which spilled over to the grain futures. The weaker dollar and higher crude oil futures were not able to help stem the tide.

Corn Stops at Resistance Despite Strong Export Inspections
Grain futures ended higher on Friday before the holiday weekend but were also unable to extend gains despite strong export inspections of 58.4 million bu. Corn futures ran up into chart resistance with March corn struggling at the $4.25 mark says Sloup.

“Right now, what we’re looking at for resistance $4.25 to $4.27. That’s going to be the big hurdle for the bulls to get out above, maybe spur some technical momentum. Above that, you’re looking at tacking on potentially a dime or so in a relatively short amount of time. That was old support and the breakdown point from last week’s WASDE report. So that would be the level to keep a very close eye on. On the flip side, if the bulls can’t get out above that, $4.17 1/4, $4.19 1/2, that was last Tuesdays lows. So we’re just kind of sandwiched there.”

After the WASDE report the corn market has established a new lower trading range and to break out of that it will take a big catalyst. He says that could come from technicals, South American weather or a shift out of corn acreage in 2026.

Low Volatility in the Grain Markets
Sloup says the grain markets saw relatively quiet day overall with low volume and low volatility which is also allowing the market to drift without any bullish news.

Soybeans Also Establish New Trading Range
Soybeans also consolidated after closing higher for three straight sessions and just like corn ran up into chart resistance at the top end of the markets new trading ranges established after the WASDE. Sloup explains, “Today’s high right near $10.68. That was basically unchanged from where we were trading before last week’s WASDE report. So at a pretty big inflection point for the market.” Technicians have also been watching the double bottom at around $10.38 on the March which also coincides with the January lows and was not take out on report day. At the lower price levels soybeans did see strong weekly export inspections at 49.1 million bu. but accumulated shipments are now 40% behind a year ago.

Soybeans Watching South American Weather and China
Currently the soybean market is in a holding pattern waiting for the South American crop to come to the market. Early harvest has started in Brazil but Sloup isn’t expecting significant hedge pressure for a couple of weeks yet. Meanwhile, Bloomberg reports China has bought all 12 MMT of the soybeans they committed to purchase from the U.S. and the next question will be whether or not those sales completely shut off now and shift to Brazil.

Wheat Sells Off
Despite cold weather threats in the U.S. Southern Plains and Black Sea regions and a weaker dollar, that failed to excite the wheat market. Instead Sloup says big global supplies and risk-off selling pushed all three exchanges lower on Tuesday.

Funds Short in Corn and Wheat, Exiting Longs in Soybeans
Sloup says the managed money funds are combined short in the three wheat classes over 120,000 contracts. That’s a position they’ve held for over two years. Meanwhile in the corn market funds have pushed short over 90,000 contracts and are continuing to add to that position. Funds are still slightly long in the soybean market by around 20,000 contracts but have been slowly liquidating since prices peaked in mid-November. The question now is whether or not they will go flat or push the short side of that market as well.

Cattle Futures Try to Recover
After a $4 selloff in live cattle Friday and over $8.00 on March feeder cattle futures the market tried to recover on Tuesday. The selling pressure was tied to rumors that New World Screwworm (NWS) had been detected in New Mexico. However, there was no confirmation of the parasite in the U.S. and so that allowed the market to bounce. Sloup says the recovery might have been greater except for the spillover from the bearish day in the financial markets.

Can Cattle Continue to Rebound With Higher Cash?
Can the futures markets continue to recover if the cash market leads the way? The case could be made for feeder cattle which have seen hot cash performance at auctions with no slow down in sight. However, after steady cash last week the fed market will need to be able to advance this week to help the futures further heal according to Sloup.

Lean Hogs End Mixed With Summer Months Making Contract Highs
The lean hog futures ended mixed with Feb and April lower, while the deferred contracts ground out more new contract highs. Sloup says disease issues in the U.S. but also African Swine Fever in Spain has fueled some of the rally in the summer months. He says they are cautious about the summer months moving much past the $110 mark and are suggesting these are good hedging opportunities.

Can Cattle Recover From the NWS Selloff? Grains Ease on EU Tariff Fears

Tue, 20 Jan 2026 16:08:02 GMT

Cattle futures are mostly higher early Tuesday as well as hogs, while grains are slightly lower

Can Cattle Recover From NWS Selloff?
Live and feeder cattle futures are trying to recover after a selloff of over $4 in live cattle and $8 in feeder cattle on Friday. Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the markets were down sharply on Friday due to an unconfirmed rumor of New World Screwworm (NWS) in the New Mexico. Fear was also tied to comments by Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller who stated that NWS cases only 215 miles from the Texas border warranted increased monitoring by producers. USDA later confirmed there were no positive cases.

So can the market recover now that there is no confirmed NWS case? Kooima says that would normally be the school of thought. However, with outside markets seeing risk off selling that may temper some of the buying interest in cattle today.

Risk Off Market Place Holding Back Cattle
Over the weekend the U.S. announced a 10% tariff on eight European countries starting on Feb. 1 if the EU did not sell Greenland to the United States. The EU responded with the possibility of retaliatory tariffs on U.S. companies operating in Europe of $93 billion Euros. Kooima says the bigger concern is that this will anger China or spark a possible move by Beijing to take over Taiwan. All of this could upset the U.S. China trade truce which would be negative for the outside and equity markets and that could spill over negatively on the cattle futures.

Cash Cattle Trade Steady Last Week, Key for Direction This Week
Kooima says he thought it was encouraging the selloff in the futures Friday only resulted in tempering the fed cash trade slightly as mostly steady cash trades took place in the North and South. The South traded $233 to $234 live and the North was $365 dressed and mostly $232 live. This week’s cash trade will be key to helping the futures market recover and he is hopeful for slightly higher prices. Although cash trade could be stalled until Friday after the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Cattle on Feed Friday
Kooima says the report should remind the trade how tight inventory is. “We aren’t even into the tightest numbers yet,” he reiterated, “And this report should reinforce that with the lighter placements, especially in the South due to the lack of Mexican feeder cattle being placed in feedlots.”

Lean Hog Futures Hitting Contract Highs
Lean hog futures were mostly lower again Tuesday morning making more contract highs in the April through the deferred futures. The market has seen fund buying pushing the rally but its also related to disease problems that are lifting isowean pig prices over $100 and creating another marketing hole for the summer months.

Grains Ease on EU Tariff Fears
After a higher close Friday, the grain markets are easing back with fears about retaliation from the EU or even China plus the risk off selling in outside markets is spillover over. Kooima says even without that negative news the grain markets don’t have much positive to trade on. He says the bigger supplies in the last Monday’s USDA reports is likely to keep a lid on prices, in addition to Brazil’s record soybean crop starting to come to the market.

As Screwworm Inches Closer, When Could the U.S. Reopen the Southern Border to Cattle Imports?

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 20:49:10 GMT

A newly confirmed case of New World screwworm (NWS) in northern Mexico is renewing concern among U.S. cattle producers and policymakers, as the parasitic fly continues to inch closer to the U.S.-Mexico border.

As reported by Drovers, on Dec. 27, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) reported a case of NWS in a 6-day-old calf with an umbilical lesion in the municipality of Llera, located in the state of Tamaulipas. The location is approximately 197 miles south of the U.S.-Mexico border, and a reminder that NWS is still a high threat to the U.S.

Critical Timing with Calving Season Approaching

NWS, which was eradicated from the U.S. in the 1960s through an extensive sterile fly program, poses a serious threat to livestock. The larvae infest open wounds, feeding on living tissue and often leading to severe injury or death if untreated. Calving season is considered a particularly vulnerable period due to natural points of entry such as navels and birthing injuries.

Seth Meyer, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) and former chief economist for USDA, says the new case raises a tremendous amount of concern as USDA remains vigilant on keeping NWS out of the U.S. But Meyer says the growing proximity of NWS complicates already difficult decisions for cattle producers at calving season , which is a critical time of the year.

“There are concerns not just from a consumer standpoint, but also about whether southern producers are willing to retain heifers during calving season if there’s a risk of fly exposure,” he says. “Calving is a point of access for these animals, and that risk matters.”

Those decisions could have longer-term implications for herd expansion and cattle supplies, Meyer notes. If producers decide the risk is too great and opt against retaining replacement heifers, it could tighten supplies further down the road.

“That’s the last thing you want,” Meyer says. “You don’t want people giving up on retaining heifers and turning away from herd rebuilding.”

The Possibility of Reopening the Southern Border

The U.S. most recently closed its southern border to Mexican cattle imports in May of 2025 due to the rapid spread of NWS in Mexico. There were additional closures and reopenings in July 2025 as the situation evolved ultimately halting trade again to protect U.S. livestock.

Here’s a timeline so far:

November 2024: NWS was first detected in southern Mexico, leading to initial border closures and trade disruptions.
Feb. 1, 2025: A temporary ban was lifted after agreements for inspections.
May 11, 2025: U.S Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins ordered an immediate suspension of imports due to NWS spreading closer to the border.
July 2025: A phased reopening began but was halted again after new NWS cases were found farther north, leading to another immediate closure of southern ports to protect American livestock.

Considering the cattle just south of the border are being vigilantly monitored and inspected, the bigger threat of NWS crossing the Southern border could be through wildlife . Still, as NWS gets closer, USDA is keeping the border closed and remaining cautious.

When could the U.S. reopen the border? That’s exactly what Farm Journal asked economists in the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor and the responses were extremely mixed. It’s important to note the survey was sent out prior to the most recent detection of NWS.

33% of economists say USDA could reopen the border in February 2026
25% say it could happen April through June
17% think the border could reopen July through September
And 17% were unsure.

For policymakers, the situation adds another layer of complexity as they balance animal health, trade and producer confidence. While officials stress that there is no immediate threat to the U.S. herd, the latest detection underscores the importance of surveillance, rapid response and continued cooperation between U.S. and Mexican animal health authorities.

As Meyer puts it: “There are a lot of balls in the air right now,” and preventing NWS from crossing the border remains a critical priority for the livestock industry on both sides.

Follow Farm Journal’s extensive coverage of the ongoing NWS situation.

New World Screwworm Found in Newborn Calf 197 Miles from U.S.-Mexico Border

Wed, 31 Dec 2025 16:47:27 GMT

On Dec. 27, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) reported a new case of New World screwworm (NWS) in a 6-day-old calf with an umbilical lesion in Llera, located in the state of Tamaulipas, approximately 197 miles from the U.S.-Mexico border.

According to the Texas Animal Health Commission, there have been no other detections in Tamaulipas or any evidence of established fly populations in the area.

To support a swift response if NWS reaches Texas, producers located on the southern border and travelers from NWS-affected areas should closely monitor animals for signs and promptly report suspected cases of NWS.

Read more about how to identify NWS:
The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm
Protect Your Livestock: Signs of New World Screwworm

A suspected NWS case requires immediate action, but it all starts with one thing: your call. If you suspect an infestation, report it right away.

The Texas Animal Health Commission recently posted this video explaining the process for producers to take if they suspect a NWS case:

What Are Some Key Concerns if NWS Crosses the Border?

Texas beef producer Donnell Brown says NWS poses a real threat to rural America.

“Fortunately, we made it to winter without a major screwworm infestation in the United States,” he says. However, as temperatures rise this spring and fly season begins again, I am deeply concerned that we could see an outbreak with devastating consequences for livestock and wildlife.”

Read more about NWS and winter:
Winter: The Secret to Slowing the Spread of Screwworm

Brown recalls the previous NWS outbreak in Texas.

“Compared to the last screwworm epidemic I experienced as a child, we now have far more effective parasiticides with extended protection for livestock,” he says. “Unfortunately, we still lack practical ways to treat or protect wildlife. After the screwworms were eradicated in the 1970s, it was 15 years before I remember seeing deer on our ranch. Today, deer are abundant and hunting has become a major economic driver for ranchers and rural communities.”

Read more about NWS treatment and prevention options:

FDA Approves Exzolt Cattle-CA1 for Prevention and Treatment of New World Screwworm
FDA Approves Dectomax-CA1 for Prevention and Treatment of New World Screwworm
New Technology to Combat New World Screwworm

Browns says if NWS cause significant wildlife losses, the ripple effects would be severe.

“Fewer hunters would travel from cities to rural areas, reducing spending on food, fuel, feed, lodging and other local necessities. This would harm rural economies already under pressure,” he explains. “The risk is especially high because fawns and many other wild mammals are born during fly season. Their wet navels become prime targets for screwworm infestation, making the potential impact on wildlife populations both immediate and profound.”

Read more about NWS and wildlife:
The Importance of Wildlife Monitoring for New World Screwworm

Sterile Flies Remain Key to Eradicating New World Screwworm

“The continued detections of New World screwworm near the Texas border are grim reminders of the serious threat this pest poses to our state,” says Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller. “Thanks to the efforts of USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins and APHIS working in coordination with Mexico, its northward spread has been halted, and this recent case promises to be a one-off, for now. But to fully eradicate this threat, the bottom line remains unchanged: we need sterile flies. I said as much a year ago when I criticized the Biden Administration’s failed efforts to corral this pest — dollars don’t kill screwworms, sterile flies do.”

Under President Trump’s leadership, Secretary Rollins and the USDA have now committed to a historic, targeted response that will deliver real results.

“Earlier this year, I was proud to stand alongside Secretary Rollins in Edinburg, Texas, as she unveiled her comprehensive five-point plan , and again at the Texas Capitol as that plan was expanded ,” Miller says. “I will continue to support and advocate for federal efforts to expand sterile insect fly production and infrastructure, because this proven strategy is key to the long-term eradication of New World screwworm.”

Current information related to NWS is available on the USDA-APHIS website , including a current situation map and table showing cases within 400 miles of the U.S.

Your Next Reads:
The Battle at the Border
Preparing for the Battle Continues: USDA Shares Screwworm Update and Releases NWS Playbook

A Conversation With Ag Secretary Rollins on Labor, Disease and MAHA

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 19:59:30 GMT

U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins stuck to streamlining the federal government labor rules to alleviate dairy’s worker crisis and said more aggressive measures are coming to prevent and contain disease, in an interview with Dairy Herd Management. Rollins this week was at the joint annual meeting hosted by National Milk Producers Federation, the United Dairy Board and the United Dairy Industry Association in Arlington, Texas.

While there, she said the H-2A visa program is particularly broken for dairy, which requires year-round support instead of seasonal workers. She also said measures, such as mandatory testing for lactating dairy cattle prior to interstate movement, are not aggressive enough to address modern biosecurity threats.

Below is a summary of Dairy Herd’s 20-minute conversation with Rollins, who discussed labor, disease prevention as well as her feelings on the “Make America Healthy Again” movement.

What Federal Efforts Are in the Works to Ensure Adequate Labor for U.S. Dairies?

One of the central concerns among dairy producers, and the entire industry, is comprehensive immigration reform. To put it in perspective, more than two-thirds of today’s 9.36 million dairy cows are milked by immigrant laborers in the U.S., according to the National Milk Producers Federation.

Currently, the H-2A visa applies strictly to seasonal or temporary labor. Dairy operations, however, require consistent, skilled workers every day of the year. Milking and caring for cows, managing processing facilities and ensuring food safety are daily tasks that don’t pause between seasons. This mismatch leaves dairy farmers and processors nationwide without a legal means to fulfill their guestworker needs.

In addition to the need for year-round help, Secretary Rollins notes farmers must interact with three different federal agencies to use the H-2A program. Moreover, the costs associated with securing labor have significantly increased, with reports from farmers in south Texas indicating average hourly costs, including transportation and housing, reaching $30 to $35 per hour. Comparatively, similar labor across the border is $2 per hour, Rollins says, illustrating a system that is both unsustainable and inherently unfair.

Ideally, any H-2A program changes will reduce costs and red tape, but comprehensive solutions ultimately require congressional action.

In addition to visa programs, Secretary Rollins says the current administration remains focused on sealing borders and mass deportations.

“Everyone understands the dynamics of an open border, and the millions and millions, we’re unable to count how many, that crossed during the last administration. The President’s No. 1 promise as a candidate in 2022 through 2024 was sealing the border and mass deportations,” she says. “Looking at this challenge through the lens of understanding labor is absolute when we can’t feed ourselves, combined with where we are in terms of immigration, those are the nuances.”

How is the Administration Addressing Threats to Animal Ag?
On day 1, after being sworn in as Secretary of Ag, Rollins was briefed on HPAI . She made it clear that while some measures, such as mandatory testing for lactating dairy cattle prior to interstate movement , had been enacted, a broader and more aggressive approach is necessary. Recognizing that maintaining the status quo was insufficient, a comprehensive strategy was essential — not just from USDA but across the entire federal government.

“I realize there are lots of opinions on my boss, President Trump, but I think the one thing that most people would agree on is that he leaves it all in the field. And, that we have to do everything we can for this moment that we were given to fix a very broken system, whatever that system may look like, in this case, which is animal disease,” Rollins says.

In February 2025, the Trump administration set forth a five-point plan to combat HPAI . Rollins notes the dairy sector, in particular, showcased remarkable adaptability to HPAI threats, demonstrating industry resilience and proactive measures.

Significant investments, such as a $100 million innovation grant , have been allocated to explore vaccines and therapeutic solutions. However, the complexities of viral mutations necessitate caution, especially regarding vaccination strategies, to prevent potentially more dangerous strains from emerging.

“I think we’re going to make more progress than perhaps has been made. Having said that, it’s a virus and the virus always wins,” she says, noting they are worried about New World screwworm and took aggressive actions to combat that by closing several ports.

“We’ve not imported new animals, which is one of the reasons beef prices are up, but we are looking now to figure out how to start reopening ports. I think we’ve gotten our arms around exactly what the problem is,” she says. “We’re building out new sterile fly facilities, which is the only way we eradicated it 30 to 40 years ago, but we have a really good system in place.”

Rollins shares collaborations with international counterparts are stronger, creating an unprecedented partnership with Mexican authorities to manage and preempt future animal agriculture outbreaks effectively. Enhanced border protocols, including disinfection and ivermectin treatments for imports, underscore a commitment to protecting livestock health.

“I feel confident that we are aggressively attacking all pieces of NWS,” she says.

What Does the MAHA Movement’s Mean for Dairy?
The “Make America Healthy Again” movement aims to revamp the nation’s food system, and Rollins offers reassurance dairy products at the forefront.

“Health care costs too much. We’re not getting the care we need, especially to vulnerable populations. How do we fix that?” she asks. “Over the last year, it is completely flipped to, what are Americans eating? What are we serving in our schools? What are we serving in our SNAP program, which 42 million Americans are on the food stamp program.”

While the current economic situation is troubling, Rollins is confident in the long-term potential for profitability and sustainability in the dairy industry.

“What milk, cheese and other dairy products mean as we completely and fundamentally shift our entire food system is our dairy industry is at the very front tip of the spear,” she says, noting the response markets are answering and the dairy industry, too, with the $11 billion in new processing plants, U.S. dairy is riding a wave of momentum that is fueled by consumer demand.

“In the long term, I’m not sure there is an agriculture industry that has more to gain and that will see more of a pivot toward real profitability and real sustainability than this [dairy] industry. I could not be more excited to help lead on that,” she says.

Your Next Read:
Beef-on-Dairy Silver Linings in the Current Margin Equation

What Finally Stops the Cattle Rally? Grains Fall on China Trade Tensions

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 14:53:55 GMT

Cattle opened higher but turned lower with the rest of the livestock and grain complex early Friday morning.

Cattle Correct but Project to $388 on Feeders, $264 on Fats

Cattle futures opened higher Friday and feeders made all time highs once again before seeing some profit taking.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek says the feeder futures have put on $25 this week and were due for a correction but still project to $388 on the November contract, while live cattle could move to $264 on the December charts.

He says feeders have continued to be the leaders on the tight numbers and feedlots scrambling to buy inventory at any price.

The border being closed to Mexican feeder cattle has tightened supplies even further.

What Stops the Cattle Rally?

Varilek says the cattle market will continue to see this type of frothy action until the Mexican border is reopened and trade resumes, to which the timing is still unknown.

Brazilian beef imports have also seen an additional 50% tariff and that has also curtailed supply and so when that levy is lifted he says it could also have a chilling effect on the market.

Fed Cash Market Quiet

Meanwhile, the fed cash market has been very quiet as packers have been drawing inventory from cattle they had bought under delayed delivery arrangements a few weeks ago.

Varilek says there was some light business at $230 in the North early in the week and a few head were reported at $358 dressed on USDA’s mandatory report on Thursday, but otherwise it has been a thin market.

As a result, he says producers are holding cattle and feeding them to heavier weights.

Hogs See Further Fund Liquidation

Lean hog futures closed below major support on Thursday and are seeing some follow through selling on Friday.

Varilek says that market has seen a steep correction since the bullish news in the Hogs and Pigs Report and he predicts more downside pressure as fund continue to shed more of their record long position.

They are also hearing from customers that hog barns are full indicating disease problems have lessened and supplies are growing.

Grains Fall on Harvest Pressure, China Trade News

Grain futures are all lower on Friday as corn and soybeans see more harvest pressure ahead of a fairly open weekend for weather.

The other big news item is China overnight put levies on U.S. ships coming into their ports and has also reportedly purchased six cargoes of South American soybeans for Nov-Dec delivery. This follows China announcing they were putting additional restrictions on exports of rare earth minerals and sanctions on a U.S. chip maker.

This is weighing on especially the soybean market, despite President Trump reiterating on Thursday that he was going to talk to President Xi about purchasing U.S. soybeans.

Varilek says the market is starting to want some proof of that business before moving higher.

Corn and Soybeans Extend the Rally, Trying to Confirm Lows: Feeders Hit Record Highs

Wed, 08 Oct 2025 20:52:22 GMT

Grain and cattle futures ended higher on Wednesday with hogs lower.

Soybeans Trying to Confirm a Seasonal Low

Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says soybeans ended higher for second day as it looks like the market is trying to carve out a seasonal low.

This is being indicated by firming basis levels and the forward spreads in the market.

“The seasonality is usually, Michelle, we bottomed this market in years like this around that first week of October. Certainly feels like that’s occurring right now. Also, we have bull spreads working, front months gaining on the back, big carries in the market. So that’s a positive sign,” he says.

He says harvest is now past the 50% mark and farmers are not willing sellers at these lower prices so they are storing more of the crop to wait for basis levels to improve or demand to improve with a China deal.

This is especially true in the Northwest Corn Belt, where soybeans generally are marketed through the Pacific Northwest, farmers are still seeing wide basis levels of $1.00 to over $1.50 in some locations.

Corn Market Following Soybeans, Confirming Lower Yields

The corn market has been getting spillover support from the strength in soybeans but has also been digesting the lower yields off the combine according to Roose.

“There is no doubt in the gut slot of Iowa, the yield is not there. I mean, it’s substantially down. You know, of course there’s some good corn too, but I mean, I’m talking like 20 to 30 bushels under a year ago. So the bottom line, we think the crop is not there,” he says.

He says there is also more corn that’s being stored and that is keeping harvest pressure at a minimum.

“Right now I don’t think producers are interested at this price level with a lot of uncertainty ahead selling cash corn for most people below the cost of production. It’s just not happening,” he adds.

Corn and Soybeans Range Bound: What Will it Take to Get Above Resistance?

Even if the markets are starting to bottom they are essentially still range bound with corn trading in a 15 cent range and soybeans around 30 cents.

So what will it take to break out above technical resistance?

For corn he says there is a head and shoulders pattern and if December can close above the gap at $4.32 3/4 it targets up to $4.46.

“So, what gets us out of this range? I think it’s a lack of producer selling and users steps up, because in the case of livestock feeders and ethanol producers its time to get aggressive. I mean you have corn below the cost of production,” he explains.

Roose says for soybeans it will take a weather problem in South America or a trade deal with China that includes U.S. purchases.

Wheat: Putting in a Low or a Head Fake?

All three classes of wheat scored key reversals on Oct. 1 after making new contract lows and Roose thinks that market is also trying to carve out a bottom.

However, analysts have predicted a low several times before.

Roose says the market has been struggling with big global supplies but that is priced in, “We’ve got a lot of big crops dialed in globally. You know I think the funds are short about 95 ,000 contracts so it feels like we need some kind of a catalyst to go up we’re probably a fair market value down here and remember when you’re building this long of a base once we break out you know you can have a better run than you think,” he says.

Yet, he admits it will take some sort of catalyst like a weather problem to really drive a rally.

Cattle Rally with Feeders at All-Time Highs

Cattle futures rallied again on Wednesday with feeder cattle making all-time highs.

Roose says the feeder market has been pushed by the strong cash market and the lack of supplies due to the closing of the Southern U.S. border to Mexican imports due to concerns about New World Screwworm (NWS).

“Remember that’s 50,000 a month less feeder cattle coming into the U.S. from Mexico.” he says.

Can the Cattle Market Sustain the Rally?

Can feeders continue to push higher and will nearby live cattle futures eventually move back to retest the record highs?

Roose says he’s cautious because the market has some headwinds including rising weights and poor packer profit margins.

“Actually the front months of cattle, December cattle versus normal basis is probably about I’d say four to six dollars too high versus the cash unless cash comes up but it’s going to be all about what happens with the packer and what happens with the demand box beef is going to have to move up or cash cattle down for the packer to make a little headway,” he states.

Lean Hog Futures Continue to Consolidate

Lean hog futures continued to see profit taking and fund long liquidation on Wednesday.

Roose says the market hit new contract highs and then topped after the bullish USDA Hogs and Pigs Report.

“It has been consolidating ever since because the market believes the disease issues are starting to subside and farrowing intentions indicate the herd is rebuilding,” he explains.

Soybean Bounce Awaiting Aid: Feeder Cattle Climb on NWS Case

Tue, 07 Oct 2025 15:06:49 GMT

Soybeans and corn are slightly higher Tuesday morning with wheat struggling. Cattle are mostly higher, with hogs lower.

Soybeans Bounce Awaiting Aid Details

Mark Knight, Farmer’s Keeper Financial, says soybeans are back higher early Tuesday on light technical buying but awaiting details of the Trump administration’s farmer aid package.

Early talk is $15 billion and it will be targeted towards soybean producers who have been hurt the worst by the trade and tariff actions.

Knight says this could help with cash flows and keep some soybeans off the market as producers store and wait for better prices and basis levels.

That is especially the case in the Dakotas and Minnesota where basis levels are horrible because they normally get shipped to China off the Pacific Northwest.

“I can’t help those guys re -own bushels because there is not a basis play after you release the physical product. So those guys are kind of stuck in holding the physical as long as they can or paying storage, et cetera. So any aid that may come from the government makes analysts think that they’ll be able to hang on to their crop that much longer and you won’t get excess supply dumped on the market,” he explains.

The Trump Bump

Soybeans have seen a Trump bump from the President posting about soybean sales to China at the end of the month but the market may be getting ahead of itself, at least for this year, according to Knight.

“China has bought from Brazil and Argentina, they certainly don’t necessarily need them. But, you know, Trump can still, I suppose, make them buy them and let them figure it out from there. I mean, we buy so much other stuff from them. I think deal will happen. It’s just, is it a month from now or is it six months from now?”

Corn Tries to Follow Soybeans

Corn is seeing some spillover early Tuesday from the stronger soybean market but continues to struggle with harvest pressure and the higher dollar.

That has created a range bound market for corn says Knight.

“The market is still trying to determine the yield and that keeps us in a trading range,” he says.

No October WASDE

With the government shut down, the lack of government data, except for export inspections, is also leaving the market a bit hesitant.

Knight says at this point there is not much change of USDA releasing the October WASDE, even late.

Knight says, “They did release analyst expectations for the report that we’re most assuredly not going to get this week for sure. It came with just small small bumps lower on yield you know carry out picking up because of the quarterly stocks report we received a week ago when we had 200 million called extra bushels of corn, which really came from maybe
wrong demand numbers.”

However, he adds that the lack of a report may not be a bad thing as USDA wasn’t likely to lower yield by much, leaving the market disappointed.

When the government does reopen, Knight says there will be a USDA data dump.

Corn and Soybeans Range Bound

With the lack of news and farmers being in the middle of harvest, Knight says corn and soybeans are still trading within their sideways ranges.

“The market’s not sure what to trade right now,” he adds.

Wheat Struggles

Wheat futures are struggling once again within striking distance of contract lows as the stronger dollar and technical selling continue to pressure the market.

Knight says the market is just trying to find a price low enough to compete with global supplies and with corn and sorghum in the U.S. feed ration.

Cattle Futures Extend Gains on NWS Case

Cattle futures had a strong technical close on Monday and staged a bit of a chart breakout which is bringing some speculative buying interest into the market with feeders still the leaders.

Fundamentally Knight says boxed beef values firmed up Monday which is positive but the bigger news came from another case of New World Screwworm detected 170 miles from the U.S. border.

That is supportive as it keeps alive the idea that imports of Mexican feeders into the U.S. will be pushed off further.

President Trump talked with Brazil President Lula on Monday and there was no movement to lower the 50% additional tariffs the U.S. has placed on their goods, including beef and Knight says that is also fueling the market.

Winter: The Secret to Slowing the Spread of Screwworm

Thu, 02 Oct 2025 11:04:21 GMT

Winter or colder temperatures — it’s not something you typically hear livestock producers anticipating or praying for. But this year, as the threat of New World screwworm continues to inch closer to the U.S.-Mexico border, winter can’t come soon enough.

“Certainly, winter will be our friend,” says Chris Womack, a veterinarian and rancher from San Angelo, Texas. “Historically the flies were pushed south with frost.”

USDA Agricultural Research Service entomologist Kim Lohmeyer agrees we need winter to come fast. Lohmeyer serves as the laboratory director of the Knipling-Bushland U.S. Livestock Insects Research Laboratory in Kerrville, Texas, where she and her colleagues use modeling to know when and where NWS may show up in the U.S. They are partnering with Lee Cohnstaedt and his team at the National Bio and Agro-Defense Facility in Manhattan, Kan., to study the life stages of NWS and its susceptibility to temperature and weather.

“With the climate changes and weather patterns we have now, if this fly gets here, it can go a lot further north, a lot further east and a lot further west,” Lohmeyer says. “It’s something to keep an eye on.“

The Winter Win

So, what exactly does “winter” mean? Lohmeyer says NWS are fairly cold sensitive, so several days of sustained cold temperatures in around 30°F would be enough to suppress NWS.

The NWS’s ability to survive is restricted to locations where low temperatures are regularly above freezing. Ideal adult fly activity occurs at 77°F to 86°F and relative humidity of 30% to 70%.

“This fly really loves 81.5°F,” explains meteorologist Matt Makens. “The research shows that’s when they’re friskiest.”

Although the Sterile Insect Technique (SIT) remains a primary control mechanism, Makens says studies have made it clear that eradication success, outbreak intensity and re-emergence potential are closely tied to weather and climate.

“From seasonal wind patterns to monsoonal moisture, numerous environmental conditions shape the life cycle, spread and population dynamics of this parasite,” Makens explains. “Understanding these weather-related drivers is critical not only for control, but also in considering how long-term temperature trends have altered the geographic boundaries of screwworm viability since the major outbreaks of the 1950s and early 1960s.”

During a recent Cattlemen’s Call podcast Makens said weather is one of the main forces of spreading NWS.

“If we could control the weather, we could control the fly,” he stresses.

(Maps: Makens Weather)

Research indicates larval and pupal development cannot proceed below approximately 58°F and halts above 110°F. The optimal temperature for adult survival and reproduction lies around 81.5°F, a range common in tropical and subtropical climates like Mexico and Central America. NWS do not survive in regions with cold winters, though they may spread into these areas during the warmer months.

Impact of temperature on NWS:

Reduced activity: Adult screwworm fly activity is limited when temperatures are below 59°F.
Larval vulnerability: Pupae are vulnerable to soil temperatures below 46°F. Sustained maximums hotter than 95°F can also be limiting — extreme heat reduces adult fly activity and increases mortality in larvae exposed to hot surface soils.
Life cycle: While the entire life cycle can be completed in warm conditions, it takes longer in cooler, more temperate environments.

“One of the secrets to historically, the northern limit of screwworm, was basically a matter of how cold the winter got. That sort of limited how far it got,” says Derrell Peel, Oklahoma State University Extension livestock marketing specialist. “In years when it was warmer, it would go farther. It would overwinter farther north, but in general, that’s going to set the upper limit, or at least it does if it’s not under control in any other way. That will limit its northward, northern movement, for sure.”

1972 NWS data (A) Monthly maps of observed cases of myiasis in Texas during the 1972 outbreak. Highest abundance occurred in August, and the length of all other density colour bars were scaled to it (bars in right hand margin of each map). The maximum density is at the top of each colour bar with the highest midseason incidence occurring in south central Texas. (B) Histogram summarizing the monthly total statewide data. (C) Map of total cases of myiasis during 1972.

(Medical and Veterinary Entomology)

Fly Season

David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and Extension specialist, says, historically, the fly season is April to October.

“If we get a really cold winter, that helps us,” Anderson adds. “It buys us some more time. But things are warmer now than it used to be. Fly season may not be that April to October anymore.”

NWS’s typical life cycle lasts about 21 days in warm weather and slightly longer in cooler climates. According to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service, NWS fly life cycle is highly sensitive to temperature:

In warm (more than 80ᴼF daytime highs) and tropical conditions, the full life cycle may be complete in two to three weeks.
In more temperate conditions, the life cycle may take three to four weeks.
In cooler conditions, the life cycle may take up to two to three months.

It is important to understand that the flies do not die at these lower activity temperatures, but prolonged exposure to these temperatures can reduce populations or active infestations.

Texas rancher Wayne Cockrell says NWS’s entry into the U.S. is inevitable but suggests winter and colder weather might temporarily delay the spread until next April or May. Cockrell serves as the Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association director and chair of the cattle health and well-being policy committee.

“We should be within 60 days hopefully when cold weather helps in two-thirds of the state,” Cockrell explains.

Rainfall and Monsoon Factors

Makens says while temperature defines where screwworms can survive, rainfall and moisture influence when and how intensely they can thrive. Outbreaks often follow moderate to heavy rainfall by improving conditions for larval survival.

He explains tools like the Palmer Crop Moisture Index (CMI) have shown promise in predicting screwworm risk, with higher-than-normal CMI values sometimes preceding population spikes.

When rainfall coincides with favorable temperatures, screwworm activity tends to increase. In contrast, hot and dry conditions tend to suppress survival and reproduction.

“One of the most striking climate connections is the role of seasonal monsoon winds in transporting screwworms over long distances,” Makens explains. “In multiple outbreak years, adult flies were documented migrating northward into Texas and the desert Southwest via the North American Monsoon (NAM) — a seasonal pattern that delivers moisture to northwestern Mexico and the U.S. Southwest from June through September. During the summer, prevailing winds shift from west to a more humid, southerly flow, creating favorable conditions for fly migration from central and southern Mexico into their northern states and, at times, into the southern U.S. The NAM this year had an early start and gave significant rainfall to parts of Arizona and New Mexico. The NAM typically calms by early fall.”

In the 1960s, these wind-assisted movements allowed the temporary re-establishment of breeding populations even after local eradication. In some years, migration spanned hundreds of miles, connecting source populations in northern Mexico to re-infestations in Arizona and New Mexico.

“This atmospheric ‘conveyor belt’ remains a critical concern in surveillance strategies for livestock-producing regions of the Southwest,” Makens says. “The 2025 monsoon was undoubtedly a factor in the most recent northward migration of NWS.”

If NWS should cross the border, it will be key for producers to coordinate management practices with weather patterns expected for their region.

“Ultimately, weather patterns act as both a barrier and bridge for screwworm activity,” Makens summarizes. “Knowing how and when the balance tips is essential to preventing the return of one of the industry’s most damaging parasites.”

Here’s to hoping Old Man Winter decides to arrive quickly and help buy livestock producers and government leaders more time to prepare to battle NWS.

Your Next Read: The Battle at the Border

Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 21:14:28 GMT

Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, an anonymous survey sent to nearly 70 ag economists each month, shows growing concern about the farm economy. “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory breaks down the latest results, pointing to four key findings.

1. Recession Calls Hit a Survey High

A record 91% of ag economists now say the farm economy is in a recession. That’s the highest level since the survey began, fueled by record input costs while commodity prices remain depressed. Still, about 10% pushed back, arguing that as long as farmland values hold strong, agriculture’s store of wealth remains intact and technically keeps the sector out of a recession.

“Basically what they’re saying is that we’re not going to be in a recession until we see land prices start to pull back,” Flory explains. “That’s where agriculture stores its wealth. As long as those land prices hold up … we are not going to be in a recession as long as that store of wealth remains safe.”

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

2. Bleak Outlook for 2026

46% of ag economists say the economy situation is “somewhat worse off” compared to last month and 27% say it’s “much worse off” compared to last year.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

While opinions about the next 12 months are mixed — 50% expect some improvement, 30% think it will worsen — the longer-term picture is troubling. Economists expect 2026 corn and soybean crops to be breakeven at best, with potential losses of up to $200 per acre.

“The expectations on the ’26 crops are that, at best, it’s going to be breakeven on corn and soybeans,” Flory says. “There’s expectations for losses up to $200 an acre among the survey respondents … We’ve drained a lot of working capital out of the industry already. And it’s really going to get tight in 2026 if this continues.”

Results from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound, Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

3. Soybean Exports Under Pressure

Economists see U.S. soybean demand as vulnerable. USDA currently projects 1.705 billion bushels in exports, but survey respondents say that’s a best-case scenario. Some expect exports could fall below 1.4 billion bushels, a 300-million-bushel drop that could be catastrophic.

“China is obviously doing everything that it possibly can to avoid buying U.S. soybeans,” Flory says. “The current USDA export estimate … is a best-case scenario that the economists expect. Some see it all the way down under 1.4 billion bushels. To take another 300 million bushels off of bean export demand might be catastrophic.”

There are still a majority of economists who think China will still buy soybeans from the U.S. this year, with 54% responding “yes.”

Even though China has bought zero new crop soybean cargoes from the U.S., more than half of economists still think China will come to the table in 2025.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

4. Screwworm Detection Near Border Raises Concerns Over Mexican Cattle Imports

This week, New World screwworm was detected just 70 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border, sparking renewed debate over cattle imports and whether USDA should keep the border closed to live cattle imports.

In the September Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists were asked: Should the U.S. reopen its border to cattle imports from Mexico? Eighty percent said no.

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

Their concern is the risk of screwworm spreading to U.S. herds.

“It’s important we continue to protect the health of our beef herd. Screwworm could have a devastating effect,” said one economist.
“Each day of delay [on reopening the border] gives more time to develop effective treatments/response,” was another response.

With the U.S. cattle herd already at a 75-year low, screwworm infestations can cause massive losses in livestock, threatening both animal health and, according to economists, the ag economy.

The Bright Spot: Beef Demand Stays Strong

There is a bright spot. Despite record-high retail prices, which economists thought would taper the hunger for U.S. beef, beef demand is holding firm. Two-thirds of economists say beef demand is inelastic, meaning consumers keep buying even as prices rise.

Even with record retail beef prices, the majority of ag economists say beef demand is proving to be inelastic.

(Lindsay Pound, Ag Economsits’ Monthly Monitor )

“It’s quality. Quality is a big part of the reason why,” Flory says. “We’ve done an unbelievable job responding to consumer demands to put choice and prime beef in the meat case … Consumers recognize the improvement in quality, and they’re responding by continuing to buy beef. The other thing is … high protein diets. That is a real thing that we need to adjust to, not only in beef, but in pork too.”

You can see the full results of the latest Monthly Monitor here .

U.S.-Mexico Border Battle Continues As the Threat of New World Screwworm Intensifies

Wed, 24 Sep 2025 21:29:05 GMT

With New World screwworm (NWS) confirmed just 70 miles from the U.S. border , producers, government officials and industry leaders are taking action. Finding NWS along one of the most heavily trafficked commercial thoroughfares in the world from Monterrey, Nuevo Leon, to Laredo, Texas, is a red flag for the industry. Emphasizing the importance of maintaining strong safeguards, it’s time to plan for not “if but when” NWS crosses the border.

On Monday, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins confirmed protecting the U.S. from NWS is non-negotiable and a top priority for President Trump.

UPDATE ON SCREWWORM THREAT:

Protecting the United States from New World Screwworm is non-negotiable and a top priority for @POTUS.@USDA landed boots on the ground this morning in Nuevo Leon, physically inspecting traps and dispersing sterile flies after the detection of the…
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) September 23, 2025

“The southern border remains closed to livestock trade, and we are aggressively expanding trapping and surveillance,” she wrote. “At the same time, we’re expediting operations at our sterile fly dispersal facility at Moore Air Base in Texas .”

On Tuesday, Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins reported 80,000 sterile flies were released on “spot” and nearly 200 surge staff had been deployed to Mexico.

Thank you, @IngrahamAngle, for paying attention to this important issue. Due to multiple failures from our southern neighbors and failure to act in the last Admin, the devastating parasite New World Screwworm is knocking on our southern borders door. We’re not waiting, we’re… pic.twitter.com/ZO5Vx5oes8
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) September 24, 2025

Mexico’s Response To New World Screwworm

According to Reuters, Mexican’s agriculture ministry said there is no risk of adult screwworm fly emergence due to the early detection of the infected bovine, which was confirmed on Sept. 21. The infected animal was in a shipment of 100 animals originating from the Gulf Coast state of Veracruz, according to the statement.

Fly traps in northern Mexico have not detected a single screwworm fly.

U.S.-Mexico Border Remains Closed to Cattle Trade

The Mexican border closure remains a topic of debate. The September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor found 80% of ag economists surveyed oppose reopening the border to Mexican cattle due to screwworm risks.

(Farm Journal)

The border closure has created significant division within the cattle industry with producers, feeders and industry leaders on both sides of the fence.

“We have some cattle people that are glad it’s closed. We’ve got others who are hit pretty hard and are not happy about it,” explains David Anderson, Texas A&M professor and extension specialist — livestock and food product marketing.

NWS is a threat the industry can not ignore, says the ag economist with more than 30 years under his belt.

“I think this is the most serious problem the industry has faced since I’ve been a livestock economist,” he stresses.

From his perspective, keeping the border open with heightened monitoring and surveillance could have potentially been more effective than implementing a total closure.

“If we go back and look at data from the early ‘70s, when we had a big screwworm outbreak in the U.S. and Mexico, the border was open,” he says. “I probably would have leaned to not closing the border to begin with. I understand why you would want to do that, but I don’t know that it’s ended up reducing the likelihood that we’re going to get screwworms, and yet we’re paying a price for that.”

According to Anderson the economic consequences to the border being closed are:

Significant loss of approximately 26,000 imported cattle weekly
Estimated 18% reduction in cattle placements in Southern plains
Contributed to tighter beef supplies and higher consumer prices
Substantial economic hit to cattle feeders and ranchers

At this point, he’s quick to admit keeping the border closed is the best option.

When it comes to reopening the border, Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist with Oklahoma State University, suggests the decision is not straightforward.

“Given everything I’ve experienced, it’s probably prudent to leave the border closed,” he says.

He adds any reopening should be “under very, very controlled, limited circumstances.”

Peel emphasizes the need for a collaborative approach with Mexico.

“We’re kind of in it together, and so whether it’s here or there, we’ve got to work together,” he summarizes. “We’re going to need to control it in both places. Otherwise, it’s not going to benefit either one of us.”

He also points out not everybody in Mexico is sorry the border is closed. For example, cattle buyers in Mexico can source cattle cheaper because the border is closed.

“Keeping the border closed does affect the movement of cattle south of the border ... it builds a backstop for cattle movement north,” he adds.

Peel notes cattle from Central America to Panama have increasingly made their way to the Mexican market, which validates NWS movement in Mexico and why recent confirmation has occurred.

“The longer this goes on, the more the Mexican industry will adjust,” he says. “It might permanently change the way the [U.S. and Mexico] work together.”

Texas Rancher Weighs In On Impact of New World Screwworm

Texas rancher Wayne Cockrell says the parasite’s entry into the U.S. is inevitable, suggesting that winter and colder weather might temporarily delay the spread until next April or May. Cockrell, who serves as the Southwestern Cattle Raisers Association director and chair of the cattle health and well-being policy committee, recently joined AgriTalk to talk about NWS.

“We would much rather stop this on Mexico’s southern border than our Southern border,” Cockrell says.

Mexican feeder cattle traditionally represented 30% of Texas feedyard inventory, he adds, but with current restrictions, feedlots are adapting.

“I think a lot of those feedyards have moved to the dairy-cross side,” he adds. “They have had to change the way they do business.”

Noting the broader economic implications of the border closure, 1.2 million fewer cattle for Texas represents “about two weeks” of impact nationwide, according to Cockrell.

“Winter and sterile flies is what we need now,” Cockrell summarizes.

Your Next Read: The Smell You’ll Never Forget: A Calf Infested with New World Screwworm

Soybeans and Corn Sink as Argentina Cuts Export Tax: Cattle Explode on NWS

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 20:20:03 GMT

Grains ended lower Monday, with livestock higher.

Soybeans Tank as Argentina Lowers Export Tax

Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist for StoneX, says the pressure in soybeans was two-fold.

Argentina announced it would be dropping its export tax on grains until Oct. 31, which will have the largest impact on the soybean complex.

Suderman explains, “That comes to about $3 per bushel for their soybeans, about $0 .50 per bushel for corn, for example. Taxes that won’t be collected, therefore, exporters can sell it at a cheaper price on the world market. They’re trying to generate dollars to pay off their dollar -denominated debt. So, once you reach $7 billion received, that means that the program is off and so therefore exporters are really going to focus on soybeans and the soybean complex because of the higher value of that complex.”

Will China Buy Soybeans?

The soybean market also had a hangover on disappointment from Friday’s China, U.S. talks as there was no mention of soybeans in the trade discussion between Trump and Xi.

“The market seems to have woke up to the reality now that we’ve lost a lot of Chinese business and with President Trump now delaying his visit to Beijing until early next year indicates we’re probably not going to have a trade deal anytime soon. China could always come in at any point and make some purchases if they choose to. So far there’s no indication that they are doing that and that leaves us vulnerable to a bloated balance sheet in the absence of a clearly defined biofuel program,” he explains.

Suderman says China bought 841 million bushels of soybeans from the U.S. in the last marketing year, but does not have to buy this time around.

“It comes down to whether they feel comfortable digging into the reserves. Their reserves are on nearly twice what they bought from us last year so they could stay out of the market if they wanted to and just pull from their reserves maybe up to 10 to 12 million metric tons. The question will probably be answered by how Brazil’s soybean growing season gets started.”

China has booked most of its needs with Brazil through November and they have been building their stocks to get through until Brazil’s next crop starts to come to market in January.

This could significantly hurt the U.S. export program, even though other countries will likely back fill in with business.

“We have already lost several hundred million bushels worth of business,” he adds.

Will Soybeans Hold $10?

The soybean market saw significant chart damage as it took out many moving averages that were layered together serving as longer term support.

So will the market be able to hold the $10 mark?

Suderman says technical traders will likely exit positions and could easily test that psychological mark on the charts.

“I think $10 is obviously the next psychological support area. Below that, then you have, as you look at to the November contract, the lows that we set back in August of around $9.811/4 or so. And then see if that holds. Those are going to be a couple of the key areas the market’s going to follow,” he says.

Corn Follows Soybeans Lower

The corn market saw two to three cent losses on spillover from the lower soybean market and also feeling the impact of Argentina’s tax holiday.

However, Suderman says corn isn’t likely to be as negatively impacted by Argentina’s lower export tax as soybeans because of its lower value.

Corn was also drug down by new contract lows in soft red winter wheat.

However, Suderman says with lower yield reports in the field that should help stabilize the market.

Corn Demand Surfacing at Lower Prices

Suderman says at these lower prices corn demand is being stimulated and the export program is on record pace.

“Weekly sales and shipments remain solid. And when we look at new marketing years, only three weeks old, so to speak, in the data that we have. And if you look at commitments to date, they exceed the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s expert target by 175 million bushels. And that target is a record 2 .975 billion bushels to shy of three billion bushels. So exports are really strong.”

Corn Yields Falling?

With yield reports coming in below last year in the East and Southern Corn Belt many are expecting a lower national yield average, but Suderman thinks the Northwest will be record high.

” And in some cases, we expect to blow away those records by based on some reports I’ve seen by 20, 30, 40 bushels per acre. It’s not going to totally offset the losses that we see in parts of Iowa, Illinois, Indiana, et cetera, but that will help reduce how far we fall. Where will we be? I anticipate we may end up somewhere in the 178 to 182 yield by time we get to January,” he states.

Wheat Hits New Contract Lows

Soft red winter wheat futures hit contract lows again on Monday as technical selling was noted, but also spillover from the lower soybean futures.

However, at these lower prices it is stimulating demand.

“I think 16 weeks worth of data now and basically marketing year to date export inspections exceed this seasonal pace needed at USDA’s target by better than 30 million bushels and that’s been growing. Every time we drop the price, we get more export business,” he says.

Poor wheat quality in the Black Sea is also making it difficult for Russia to push prices any lower either.

Cattle Futures Explode on NWS News

Live and feeder cattle futures exploded higher on Monday with limit up closes in the deferred feeder cattle futures.

Suderman says the news that New World Screwworm or (NWS) was only 70-miles from the U.S. Mexico border pushed the market higher.

“Mexico does say that it was they caught this animal that had been brought up with just the larvae in it that there are no adults so they say it’s not an increased threat at this point but I think it’s a wake -up call for Secretary Rollins and I think she’ll be reluctant to open the border anytime soon,” he says.

Fund buying also escalated as the futures pushed above key resistance.

Suderman says that kind of performance could support a higher cash market this week and that could in turn help the futures retest the contract highs.

Last week’s cash cattle average sunk another $1.82 to $237.51.

Lean Hog Futures Make Contract Highs

Several lean hog futures contracts were able to make new contract highs on Monday on a combination of fund buying and the rally in cattle futures.

Suderman says funds are record long in the market and continue to add to their length despite the increase in inventory as slaughter was up nearly 3% last week at 2.593 million head.

Cattle Surge as NWS Nears U.S.: Soybeans Tank as Argentina Drops Export Tax

Mon, 22 Sep 2025 15:04:13 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher Monday with grain markets lower.

Cattle Surge Higher on New World Screwworm News

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures are sharply higher on Monday as news came Sunday evening that New World screwworm (NWS) had been detected 70 miles from the U.S. Mexican border in an 8-month-old calf from a transported herd.

USDA said in a press release Sunday that Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety, and Quality (SENASICA) confirmed a new case of NWS in Sabinas Hidalgo, located in the state of Nuevo León. This is now the northernmost detection of NWS during this outbreak.

The USDA has activated its 5-point plan to keep NWS out of the country and more announcements are expected in the next 24 hours.

Could Cattle Futures Retest the Highs?

Fund and technical buying was triggered in the cattle futures especially as both markets got back above the 20-day moving averages, which was the breakout level that spurred the recent correction.

If the futures close above these levels Kooima thinks the futures could retest the recent contract and record highs.

Futures Rally Could Mean Higher Cash Cattle Trade

Kooima says if the strong technical action in the cattle futures continues to build this week he thinks it is very likely the cash trade could be higher than a week ago.

He thought cash traded better than expected last week with the South at mostly $240, which was steady and the North at $236 to $238.

Cattle on Feed Neutral

Kooima viewed Friday’s USDA Cattle on Feed report as neutral as the major categories came in close to expectations.

On feed was at 98.9% of a year ago, placements were at 90.1% and marketings at 86.4%.

However, he says with the low placement and marketings he thinks its a sign of heifer retention.

And he explains the lower placements in Iowa, which were down 16%, the function of feedlots already being full.

Hogs Continue Higher

Lean hog futures continue to move higher with some spillover from cattle and continued fund buying as contracts are near contract highs.

However, Kooima is concerned that slaughter pace last week at 2,593,000 was up over last year by 76,000 head and weights are also climbing.

Soybeans Anchor Grains as Argentina Drops Export Tax

Soybeans have taken out key support areas Monday morning with hangover from the disappointing China talks plus a new wrinkle in the Southern Hemisphere.

Argentina suspended their export tax on grains until Oct. 31st in an effort to move stored stocks and ease their financial turmoil.

That is weighing on the soybean, bean oil and meal markets, which is also dragging down corn and wheat.

New World Screwworm Numbers Increasing in Mexico

Thu, 28 Aug 2025 16:47:02 GMT

Cases of New World Screwworm continue to increase in Mexico. According to Reuters , Mexico has recorded 5,086 cases of flesh-eating screwworm in animals as of Aug. 17, a 53% jump from the number of cases reported in July. The Reuters refers to data from the Mexican government.

The updated numbers, which have not been previously reported to the public, showed 649 currently active cases.

“That’s absolutely concerning,” says Neal Wilkins, CEO of conservation and cattle group East Foundation. “Having a 50% increase in month-over-month numbers, particularly in the extreme heat, means they haven’t gotten it under control.”

According to a spokesperson for the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association: “The increase of cases reported in Mexico shows that New World screwworm is still a very present threat. We need to continue full steam ahead with all possible prevention and mitigation tools. This includes the funding that Secretary Rollins has announced for a domestic sterile fly facility , coupled with increased surveillance and screening measures.”

The increase in reported cases in Mexico can be attributed to Mexican cattle producers inspecting their cattle and reporting any suspicious wounds or insects.

“This is the right thing to do, and it’s important for everyone to remain vigilant,” the NCBA spokesperson confirms. “We also need to keep in mind that New World screwworm is a multispecies disease, and currently there is limited information on wildlife infestations in Mexico. Beyond cattle and domestic livestock, Mexican authorities must also develop a multispecies response that addresses the risk from wildlife.”

The majority of cases were identified in cattle, though Mexican government data also showed infestations in dogs, horses and sheep. According to the COPEG (Panama–United States Commission for the Eradication and Prevention of Screwworm Infestation in Livestock) website , reported cases have been 85% bovine, 6% canine, 3% swine, 3% equine and 2% sheep.

On July 8, Mexico’s National Service of Agro-Alimentary Health, Safety and Quality reported a NWS case in Ixhuatlan de Madero, Veracruz, Mexico, which is approximately 370 miles south of the U.S./Mexico border. This northward detection came approximately two months after northern detections were reported in Oaxaca and Veracruz, less than 700 miles away from the U.S. border.

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Breaking News: USDA to Invest $750 Million to Build a Domestic Sterile Fly Production Facility

Corn, Soybeans Fall on Month End Selling: Bean Basis Tanks on No China Biz

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 15:08:24 GMT

Grains are quietly mixed early Tuesday, with livestock higher.

Corn Drifts Tuesday

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says corn is drifting Tuesday with some consolidation after hitting chart resistance on Monday.

The market has digested the lower corn yield estimates from the Pro Farmer Tour and is now marking time until harvest he says.

In the mean time this is end of the month and Friday is first notice day which will also create some selling pressure on the corn and other grain markets as producers roll out of the September contracts or have to execute or roll basis fixed or deferred price contracts.

He doesn’t think the selling pressure will be as bad as it was a year ago, but will still weigh on the market.

Soybean Basis Crashes on Lack of China Business

Soybean futures are slightly lower after a slight pop in the overnight trade on word U.S. and Chinese officials are meeting.

However, Martinson says while negotiations continue the bigger story is that basis has crashed in the Northwest Corn Belt on the lack of China demand.

China has not bought any new crop soybeans from the U.S. and China buyers have been instructed not to buy American soybeans.

Meanwhile, China is reportedly booked for soybeans through December primarily from South America.

Martinson says as a result basis levels in North Dakota on soybeans are running from $1.20 to $1.50 under the board.

“Most of our soybeans go to China through the Pacific Northwest and so we are more heavily dependent on than market than the rest of the Corn Belt,” he explains.

Wheat Struggles to Bounce

Soft red winter wheat is trying to bounce on Tuesday with some light short covering and hard red winter wheat is trying to follow.

However, the wheat market has not been able to get any post harvest traction despite strong export demand.

Export inspections on Monday were nearly 35 million bu. which should be supportive.

However, Martinson says there is just too much cheap wheat in the world and it is dragging prices in the U.S. down.

He says there are also quality issues in the spring wheat crop in North Dakota which as causing discounts on the prices.

Cattle Recover After NWS Selloff

Cattle futures are trying to recover on Tuesday after ending well off early session lows on Monday.

The market saw a gap lower opening on Monday morning with news of a human case of New World screwworm and the negative placements number in the Cattle on Feed Report.

However, the market recovered to close well off lows and the nearby contracts were even a bit higher.

Futures are still driven by tight supplies, strong boxed beef values and a strong cash market for fed and feeder cattle.

The 5-area weighted average steer price last week hit another new record at $244.25.

Cattle Plunge on Human NWS Case Topping the Market? Corn Up on Pro Farmer Yield Cut

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 15:09:55 GMT

Cattle futures were sharply lower Monday, hogs highs and grains mixed after a higher start.

First Human Case of NWS in U.S.

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says live and feeder cattle futures gapped lower on the opening after a human case of New World screwworm (NWS) was announced over the weekend.

It was found in a resident of Maryland, who had traveled from El Salvador and that person has received treatment for the infection.

USDA has rolled out a five-part strategy to eradicate screwworms, including building a sterile fly production facility and releasing lab-bred male flies that can’t reproduce into outbreak zones. It’s the first human case in decades on U. S. soil.

Kooima says the market actually handled the news better than he thought it would and he was expecting a lower opening in cattle anyway with the bearish placements figure in the Cattle on Feed Report.

USDA Cattle on Feed Report Bearish

USDA’s August Cattle on Feed Report was slightly bearish as placements came in at 94% of a year ago but the average trade guess was 91%.

He says this is an indication that cattle producers are backing up cattle.

The state-by-state breakouts showed Texas at only 75%, while Iowa was at 118% which also shows the continued influence of the Southern border being closed to Mexican cattle imports.

However, the on feed numbers were at 98% of a year ago, which was as expected and confirms the continued trend of tight supplies.

Cash Convergence

Kooima says cash trade was sloppy in the North last week but higher in the South at mostly $240 live, which was up $5 from the previous week.

He says the cash is starting to converge with futures and the South is starting to converge with the North.

Is the High In the Cattle Market?

The bearish technical action off new contract and record highs on Friday may be signaling a top according to Kooima.

He admits there have been several key reversals the cattle market has negated but he thinks this one might stick.

The reason is because the market is overbought, but also the seasonals are usually weaker for the cattle market in September as the market moves past the Labor Day beef demand peak.

Hog Futures Try to Narrow Discount

Lean hog futures were higher early Monday on spread unwinding with cattle but also extending gains after higher weekly closes.

The October contract is holding a sizable discount to the cash and that may be somewhat attractive to fund traders.

However, Kooima says the cash trade is weakening and it is more likely the futures will fall towards the futures to make up that gap.

Corn Extends Gains

Corn futures were high on Monday extending gains after a higher weekly close and with the tailwind of Pro Farmer cutting yield estimates by 6 bu. below USDA at 182.7 bu. per acre.

Kooima says that confirmation is enough to keep the market in recovery mode, especially with strong exports.

Soybeans See Profit Taking

Soybeans were higher on the opening but ran into chart resistance and saw some profit taking.

The market has rallied nearly 75 cents off the lows and needs additional bullish news to get through these chart areas.

Kooima says exports have been decent despite China being absent from the market, but it might take China purchases to keep the rally going.

Human Case of New World Screwworm Confirmed in Maryland

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 02:13:42 GMT

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services on Sunday reported a human New World screwworm (NWS) case.

The case, investigated by the Maryland Department of Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, was confirmed by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) on Aug. 4, and involved a patient who returned from travel to El Salvador, HHS spokesman Andrew G. Nixon said in an email to Reuters.

Gabriel Alvarado, CDC spokesperson, confirms the email saying, “CDC, in coordination with the Maryland Department of Health, investigated a confirmed case of travel-associated New World screwworm in a patient who returned from travel to El Salvador. The case was confirmed by CDC through telediagnosis (i.e., expert review of submitted larvae images) on Aug. 4, 2025.”

In response to the confirmation, USDA shared a statement : “In support of CDC’s activities and out of an abundance of caution, USDA initiated targeted surveillance for NWS within a 20-mile radius of the affected area, encompassing portions of the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia. To date, all trap results have been negative for NWS. There have been no detections of NWS in the U.S. in livestock or other animals since the last outbreak of NWS in the Florida Keys was resolved in 2017.”

Reuters reported on Sunday evening that a person who had traveled to the U.S. from Guatemala was confirmed as receiving treatment in Maryland for NWS.

“The risk to public health in the United States from this introduction is very low,” Nixon said.

State veterinarians learned of the human case during a call last week with the CDC.

The exact dates of travel and arrival in U.S. are not confirmed at this time.

South Dakota State Veterinarian Beth Thompson, who was quoted in the story, says when CDC officials confirmed it was NWS, CDC worked with local physicians and dealt with the larva. She says there has been no livestock movement control put into place because of the case.

Thompson says NWS is endemic in some Central American countries.

This is not the first case of a U.S. traveler being infect with NWS. According to a CDC Resurgence of NWS Update webinar :

In 2014, a woman in her mid-20s returned from a beachside resort in the Dominican Republic where she fell asleep on the beach one night. Pain started in her ear the next day and it was discovered she had NWS when she got back to the U.S.
In 2023, a mid-60s male traveled to Argentina and Brazil with a fresh surgical wound on his cheek. NWS entered through his wound and he received treatment for larvae infestation once he returned to the U.S.
In 2024, an individual spent approximately seven days in the Dominican Republic. This individual was immunosuppressed due to a previous case of cancer in their nose. Once the individual arrived back in the U.S., 100 to 150 larvae were surgically removed from their nose.

Two other cases include a 15-year-old girl when she returned from a three-week hiking trip to Peru and a 12-year-old girl who had been on a church mission to Palmira, Colombia .

USDA also confirmed it was not the first case saying, “There have been previous instances of traveler-associated cases of NWS in the United States in years past. In all cases, these instances were isolated and designated as closed after precautionary targeted surveillance in the vicinity was negative. We may continue to see traveler-associated cases of NWS and USDA, in coordination with HHS and CDC, will conduct targeted surveillance to ensure there is no active spread of NWS in the United States. This is not cause for alarm as human risk is low and we have seen several isolated cases in recent years that have not resulted in livestock transmission.”

National Cattlemen’s Beef Association CEO Colin Woodall, says, “NCBA is aware of a New World screwworm case detected in a person traveling from abroad into Maryland. The case was quickly identified and handled by the CDC in accordance with their protocols. Based on what has been shared with state animal health officials, we do not see any elevated risk to the livestock industry at this time. We appreciate the diligence of human health authorities. This case was quickly addressed thanks to existing protocols, and we are thankful for the ongoing coordination between the CDC, state departments of health, state animal health officials, and USDA.”

As more details are available, we will update this story.

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How High Will the Cattle Market Run? Can Corn and Soybeans Continue to Rally?

Fri, 22 Aug 2025 15:12:50 GMT

Cattle and hogs higher early Friday, grains are quietly mixed.

Cattle See More Record Highs

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says cattle futures are pushing back higher Friday after early losses with the continued trend of funds buying every pullback.

Both live and feeder cattle futures have been continuing to hit new contract and all-time highs.

The cattle market has been supported this week by strong cash, strong cutouts and even tighter supplies with USDA keeping the Southern border closed to Mexican cattle imports to protect against New World screwworm (NWS) entering the U.S.

Varilek says that has helped propel the feeder cattle futures nearly $20 higher in the last four sessions but the cash feeder market is also helping lead the way.

How Long Will the Bull Market in Cattle Continue?

The bull run in the cattle market has been incredible and producers are getting tired of paying margin calls on hedge positions according Varilek.

Many are wondering how long the historic rally will last.

Varilek says slaughter is down over 6% and lower placements in feedlots and on feed numbers are likely to be confirmed in Friday’s Cattle on Feed Report.

That will keep the market well supported he says.

Cash Trade Steady to Higher

Cash news has been light this week but in the North prices have been mostly $245 on a live sale basis with a few higher trades of $247 reported to a regional packer. Dressed prices on the mandatory report were at $380 to mostly $385 on Thursday, up $2 from last week.

Southern trade in Kansas reported at $240 but the South has more work to do and may wait until after the Cattle on Feed Report release.

Choice Beef Hits $408

Consumer demand has also been driving the cattle market higher as there has been no sticker shock as of yet.

Choice beef was at $408 on Thursday’s close, which is partially Labor Day buying but is also just another indication of solid demand.

Varilek says with inflation driving prices for everything higher he doesn’t think consumers believe beef is high priced relative to other purchases.

Will Hogs Continue to Follow Cattle?

Lean hog futures are higher early Friday and have no doubt received some pull from higher cattle prices.

Cash and cutouts have continued to slide and so he thinks fund traders are seeing the huge discount the futures are holding to cash and buying on that.

Can Corn and Soybeans Continue to Rally?

Corn and soybeans have had a decent week and November soybeans were up 20-cents on Thursday following a 244 point surge in December bean oil.

That buying was tied to rumors EPA was releasing its decision on the backlog of 190 plus Smaller Refinery Exemptions (SREs) and some would be remanded back to oil refiners.

However, Varilek says the market has also been trading the smaller yield projections on corn for Illinois and Iowa out of the Pro Farmer tour and strong demand.

“New crop exports have been phenomenal for corn and soybeans and there were also flash export sales on corn again this morning. Demand rallies are always stronger than supply rallies,” he says.

That leaves him thinking the rally could continue, especially as futures have pushed through overhead chart resistance.

“I am targeting November soybeans to move up to $10.75 and December corn up to a gap area at $4.32 1/4.” he explains.

Breaking News: USDA to Invest $750 Million to Build a Domestic Sterile Fly Production Facility

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 18:26:22 GMT

Today in Austin, Texas, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins and Texas Gov. Greg Abbott hosted a press conference announcing new strategies to stop the spread New World screwworm .

“We will continue to take all necessary steps across the entirety of the federal government, working alongside our partners at the state government, and in the local governments, to ensure that we keep this pest — this parasite, and others like it — out of our country that threaten our economy and our way of life,” Rollins says.

I’m in Texas today as we continue to aggressively address the serious New World Screwworm threat endangering our American livestock industry and our nation’s national security. @USDA is announcing a historic investment to STOP screwworm in its tracks — with 5 pillars of action:… pic.twitter.com/ukcWSSamcZ
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) August 15, 2025

Rollins shared five pillars of action to help keep NWS out of Texas and the U.S.:

1. Innovate to Eradicate — Investment in new tech, traps and treatments
Rollins plans to allocate up to $100 million to develop cutting-edge technologies to accelerate the country’s response.

While sterile flies are currently the most effective way to prevent the spread of NWS, technology continues to evolve and as such USDA will provide up to $100 million to invest in viable innovations which could show rapid advancement of promising technologies that will augment the U.S. facility and accelerate the pace of sterile fly production if proven successful.

USDA will support proven concepts that only require funding to scale and implement as well as a number of longer-term research projects focused on: new sterile NWS production techniques, novel NWS traps and lures, NWS therapeutics that could be stockpiled and used should NWS reach the U.S., and any other tools to bolster preparedness or response to NWS.

“I’m calling on the brightest minds in the country to build on our existing tools and help us outpace this pest quickly and in the most innovative way possible,” Rollins says.

2. Build Domestic Production
She announced the plan to invest $750 million to build a domestic sterile fly production facility in Edinburg, Texas, which will be capable of producing 300 million sterile screwworm flies per week. This facility will be located 20 miles from the southern border and near the Moore Air Base in Texas.

Once complete, the facility will triple current fly output and reduce reliance on Panama and Mexico for sterile fly production. Rollins says it will also create 300 jobs in Texas.

Prior to this announcement, the USDA committed Moore Airfield Base as a dispersal facility for sterile NWS flies, which was to be completed at the end of the year. While NWS can be treated, the only proven method for eradication is releasing sterile male flies to mate with wild females collapsing the population over time.

The only sterile fly facility in the world is COPEG in Pacora, Panamá which is currently operating at full capacity, producing 115 million flies per week. The U.S. owned a facility in Chiapas during the NWS outbreak in the 1960s but it has since been closed.

1 of 3:

Leaders of NCBA and TSCRA attend New World screwworm briefing in Texas.

TSCRA

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Leaders of NCBA and TSCRA attend New World screwworm briefing in Texas.

TSCRA

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Leaders of NCBA and TSCRA attend New World screwworm briefing in Texas.

TSCRA

3. Border Defense — Wildlife Migration Prevention
Animals don’t know borders, and that leaves the U.S potentially vulnerable to NWS from wildlife migrating across the border. USDA is working aggressively to ramp up the hiring of USDA-employed mounted patrol officers, known as “Tick Riders,” and other staff who will focus on border surveillance.

The Tick Riders will be complemented by other animal health experts who will patrol the border in vehicles and will provide the first line of defense against an NWS outbreak along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Rollins explains the tick riders, mounted on horseback, will provide the first line of defense against a NWS outbreak along the U.S.-Mexico border.

Next stop: the Texas-Mexico Border, where I rode along the Rio Grande with @USDA Cattle Fever Tick Cowboys!🇺🇸

This dedicated team patrols the border every day to stop the spread of cattle fever ticks and protect our livestock. Their vigilance is essential to also keeping the… pic.twitter.com/2sdryZAYQg
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) June 18, 2025

USDA will also begin training detector dogs to detect screwworm infestations in livestock and other animals along our border and at various ports of entry. These dogs will be essential to help control the spread of the NWS. USDA is working closely with the U.S. Department of the Interior and the U.S Customs and Border Protection to monitor the border for NWS-infected wildlife that could pose a threat to the U.S.

“We’re also training our beagles on the beagle brigade, to detect screwworm infections, and we will be significantly ramping up our border surveillance program with those and others,” she says.

4. Partner with Mexico – Contain the pest before it reaches our border by enhancing collaboration

Boost surveillance and training
Halt animal movement in affected zones
Improve real-time tracking and response

“We are working directly with Mexico, perhaps in a way never seen before,” Rollins says.

5. Work with our partners in federal, state, and private sector — Educate consumers and protect the U.S. food supply chain

“Once eradicated in the United States decades ago, [NWS] has now reemerged dangerously close to our Southern border — closest to Texas, but also waging a war with our friends in Arizona and New Mexico as well,” Rollins summarizes. “Its peril is not just in the cause, but because it endangers the livelihood of our livestock. It endangers our livestock industry, and it threatens the stability of beef prices for consumers across America. It’s a dinner table issue, as Governor Abbott mentioned, and one that affects every American home and community — directly affecting the cost of groceries and therefore the cost of living. All Americans should be concerned.”

The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association announced continued support for USDA’s aggressive plan.

“American cattle producers commend President Trump and Secretary Rollins for their swift action in combating the spread of New World screwworm. Their leadership and diligence, along with USDA’s collaboration with Texas in building sterile fly production and distribution facilities at Moore Air Base, marks a critical step in stopping the spread of screwworm and protecting the American cattle herd,” says NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “Today’s announcement of rapid construction of sterile fly facilities, that will boost weekly output of flies to more than 300 million, is vital news for U.S. cattle producers. Producing flies domestically under American oversight will overcome supply challenges in Mexico and Central America — strengthening our fight against New World screwworm and protecting herds on both sides of the border.”

During the question and answer session, Rollins said the ports for Mexican cattle will remain closed until the NWS threat is controlled.

“We’ve been very clear to them over and over again that those ports don’t open until we begin to push the screwworm back,” Rollins says.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller was at the announcement in Austin.

(Texas Department of Agriculture)

“I was pleased to welcome my friend U.S Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins back to Texas and applaud her continued commitment to fight the New World Screwworm threat that puts our state’s $30 billion livestock industry in jeopardy,” he says. “Her announcement about USDA’s plans to construct a new sterile fly production facility in South Texas was welcome news. When completed, it should serve as an important tool in our battle against the screwworm.”

Miller and Rollins have worked together to fight NWS the last six months.

“The Texas Department of Agriculture and I will continue to work side-by-side with Secretary Rollins to develop the tools necessary to combat this insidious threat and protect our agriculture industry and all who depend upon it.”

Has the Cattle Market Topped? Does the U.S. Have a China Deal?

Mon, 11 Aug 2025 16:00:13 GMT

Cattle opened lower Monday morning, with hogs starting lower then turning mixed. Grains opened sharply higher.

The cattle futures saw follow through selling pressure on Monday after huge reversals on Friday and limit down closes in feeder cattle futures.

Both live and feeder cattle futures are under expanded limits on Monday but fortunately the market have not seen massive panic or follow through selling.

Is the Cattle Market Top In?

Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle futures have negated more than a handful of technical reversals after making new highs.

However, he says it is very possible the cattle market top may finally be in.

The sell off was triggered by an unconfirmed rumor that New World screwworm was detected in the U.S. and the headline was picked up by algorithm traders.

“There was another screw story, this time it was supposed to be in Oklahoma. The whole story seemed contrived from the get go. Even I understand some of the video about the behind the story was the exactly the same video that they used a couple of months ago in the story in Missouri.”

Still, Kooima thinks the market looked toppy prior to that.

Beef Packer Kill Cuts

He says one signal has been the slow down in beef processing by packers whose profit margins have been in the red. Another major packer announced on Monday they would only be slaughtered 32 hours this week.

The weekly cattle slaughter total was only 536,000 head, which is down 52,000 from last year.

Packers have been trying to prop up boxed beef values and were successful at driving Choice values up $15.62 for the week.

Cash Cattle Trade Lower

The cash market was also lower on Friday in the North, which may have contributed to the negative psychology of the futures.

Northern cash developed at mostly $380 dressed, down $4 from the prior week’s weighted averages, with live sale prices ranging from $240 to $245. Southern deals were mostly $235, steady to $.50 lower, but there were a few up to $237.

What Technically Could Trigger Fund Liquidation?

Kooima says to see additional fund liquidation in the cattle futures he is watching the 20-day moving average in the October live cattle at around $222 as a line in the sand for funds that if breached could cause further liquidation.

For September feeder cattle futures he is watching that same moving average which coincides with $333.70 on the charts as a support area that needs to hold.

Lean Hogs Turn Mixed

Lean hog futures opened lower with cattle and then turned mixed.

While the fundamentals are still fairly strong with tight supplies, stronger cutouts values and a slightly higher lean hog index, the futures have been unable to get through chart resistance areas.

Kooima says with the big discount the deferred futures are holding to the cash index and the front end of the board he can’t be overly bearish lean hog futures.

However, more clarity on trade, especially regarding China, would help.

Grains Higher on China Hopes

Grains were higher early Monday, led by soybeans on hopes for China business or even a trade deal.

President Trump put out on social media overnight that China was concerned about a shortage of soybeans and he encouraged them to quadruple their purchases ahead of the Aug.12 tariff delay deadline.

However, there is no indication that there is any China soybean purchases and so Kooima is doubtful the market can hold the gains or see much additional buying, especially with the WASDE report likely to confirm larger yields.

Grains Bounce Ahead of WASDE: Cattle Disappoint

Thu, 10 Jul 2025 21:31:15 GMT

Grain markets ended steady to higher on Thursday, with live cattle mixed, feeders higher and lean hogs mostly lower.

Grains Bounce Ahead of WASDE

DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says the bounce in the grain markets was mostly short covering heading into Friday’s WASDE Report.

The markets have seen heavy fund selling for most of the week pushing corn into new contract lows on favorable weather and growing yield ideas, plus trade and tariff concerns.

President Trump warned Brazil he will impose a 50% tariff on all Brazilian exports to the U.S., beginning Aug. 1 unless President Lula da Silva halts what Trump deemed a “witch hunt” trial against former President Jair Bolsonaro. Lula said the new tariffs would be met with reciprocal measures.

This comes on top of additional countries receiving letters about increased tariffs on Aug. 1, including the Philippines. Tariff letters on Monday went out to 14 countries including Japan and South Korea which face 25% tariffs.

Funds took some profits Thursday and evened up their positions ahead of the USDA report although the average trade guesses don’t indicate the market is expecting any big changes in the balance sheets.

Traders Look for Corn Ending Stocks in WASDE

Bosse says despite improving ratings, its too early for USDA to raise corn yield, but the trade is expecting a slight cut in ending stocks.

He thinks USDA may be conservative on their corn demand estimate even though an increase is warranted.

“USDA should increase demand. We had great exports this morning on corn and total exports are running nearly 30% ahead of last year. However, USDA doesn’t like to make big changes in demand this time of year,” he says.

If USDA doesn’t provide anything bullish his fear is the market will go back to trading ideal weather and higher yields.

Is Wheat Bottoming?

Wheat futures were also higher on short covering and solid weekly exports of nearly 21 million bu.

However, Bosse thinks the market may be trying to bottom with winter wheat harvest now past the 50% mark and after testing contract lows in September hard red winter wheat this week.

Trade estimates show very little change in production and ending stocks from June.

However, a bullish surprise could be possible in the form of a production cut after USDA lowered harvested acres on winter wheat 880,000 in the June Acreage Report.

Soybeans Recover After Disappointment on China Deal

Soybeans made new lows for the move before finally recovered mid-session on short covering.

However, Bosse says the market has had a rough week on tariff fears and disappointment about the lack of a deal with China.

“We gapped lower on Sunday night, some of it was weather, but also the market was expecting to get details of a China trade deal when the President was in Iowa,” he says.

Poor Close Cattle After Bullish Border News

Live and feeder cattle futures made all-time highs again early in the session with news USDA was once again shutting the border to Mexican livestock imports as another case of New World screwworm was detected just 370 miles from the U.S. border.

Additionally, President Trump is proposing 50% tariffs on Brazilian imports on Aug. 1 which will slow beef coming into the U.S. which is price positive.

While feeder cattle ended higher, nearby live cattle ended lower on profit taking and posted bearish key reversals, ending with an outside day down after hitting a contract high earlier in the session.

The action concerns Bosse but he’s not ready to call a top, especially if cash trade develops at steady to higher money this week.

Lean Hogs Mostly Lower

Lean hog futures ended mostly lower on the day with the Lean Hog Index down once again and funds exiting some of their record long position.