Promising Potential? Why India Poses the Biggest Opportunity for Trade, But Also the Biggest Challenge

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 15:45:47 GMT

As trade tensions continue to impact both commodity and financial markets, the White House says the Trump administration is making progress on additional trade deals. The news comes as Vice President JD Vance was in the middle of a four-day visit to India, with both countries saying they had made progress in negotiating a bilateral trade deal. Delhi hopes this deal will help it avoid higher tariffs.

Vance announced the U.S. and India have “officially finalized the terms of reference for the trade negotiation.” He called it a “vital step,” saying it sets a roadmap toward a final deal.

India is just one of several trade deals in the works, according to the Trump administration. White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Tuesday the Trump administration now has “18 proposals on paper” for trade deals.

“You have Secretary Bessent, Secretary Lutnick, Ambassador Greer, NEC Director Hassett and Peter Navarro, the entire trade team meeting with 34 countries this week alone,” Leavitt said in the press briefing. “We are moving at Trump speed to ensure these deals are made on behalf of the American worker and the American people.”

Leavitt also announced “the president and the administration are setting the stage for a deal with China.”

The Wall Street Journal reported the White House is considering slashing tariffs in order to de-escalate the trade war. Currently, tariffs are at 145%, but the White House isn’t considering cutting those to zero. Instead, the Wall Street Journal reports those tariffs will likely fall anywhere between 50% to 65%.

However, Treasury Secretary Bessent declined to comment on that report, saying there’s no unilateral offer from President Trump to cut tariffs on China. He also said it could take two to three years to reach a full trade deal with China.

Progress With India
Before the White House’s 90-day pause on higher tariffs for other countries expires on July 9, India is one country rushing to negotiate a trade deal with the U.S.

Just this week, Vance and Prime Minister Modi announced the t erms of reference for a bilateral trade agreement between the U.S. and India. The progress toward the agreement was a result of the meeting between the two this week.

“I am pleased to confirm that USTR and India’s Ministry of Commerce and Industry have finalized the Terms of Reference to lay down a roadmap for the negotiations on reciprocal trade,” Greer said. “There is a serious lack of reciprocity in the trade relationship with India. These ongoing talks will help achieve balance and reciprocity by opening new markets for American goods and addressing unfair practices that harm American workers. India’s constructive engagement so far has been welcomed and I look forward to creating new opportunities for workers, farmers and entrepreneurs in both countries.”

During Vance’s speech in Jaipur prior to that, he said that the two countries had finalized the terms of reference for the negotiation.

“This is a vital step toward realizing President Trump and Prime Minister Modi’s vision because it sets a roadmap toward a final deal between our nations,” Vance said.

India’s Tariffs on U.S. Agriculture Products
India’s tariffs on U.S. agricultural goods are significant, which is a major point of contention in the U.S. and India trade relationship. Walnuts, for example, face a tariff of 100% into India. Vegetable oils have a tariff of up to 45%.

The United States has one of the lowest average applied tariff rates on agricultural products. But many of our trading partners maintain prohibitive tariff rates that constrain export opportunities for American farmers and ranchers.

Unfair and non-reciprocal practices have… pic.twitter.com/mmy5spBEzl
— United States Trade Representative (@USTradeRep) April 23, 2025

The U.S. argues these tariffs are unfair trade barriers, and Mark Knight of Farmer’s Keeper Financial told AgDay the U.S. relationship with India over the years has been complex and strange.

“Sometimes it’s friendly, for the most part. But that’s a giant population, and it would go a long way toward making a potential deal with China less important if we could strike some deals with some of these other countries — especially India. We haven’t had something in place with India for years.”

India Has the Most Potential, But Poses the Biggest Problem
If you want to understand just how problematic India has been for trade in the past, just talk to Gregg Doud. He’s the current CEO of National Milk Producers Federation (NMFP) but served as the chief ag trade negotiator during the first Trump administration.

During an episode of “Unscripted” earlier this year, he said India has the most potential, but is the biggest problem.

Doud says history shows you India has been a problem, as the U.S. essentially kicked India out of the World Trade Organization (WTO) in the past. The U.S. did finally agree to allow India back into the WTO, but under certain terms.

“I don’t want what I’m about to say to be seen as being negative toward the discussion between Modi and President Trump earlier this year, but one of the wins we did get in agriculture — which is my understanding based on some conversations — is that India lowered the tariff on U.S. bourbon from 150% to 100%,” Doud says.

He says while that may not have been the only win, it serves as an example for how difficult it is to negotiate with India.

India is a big customer of one main U.S. ag product, though: almonds .

In the 2023/24 crop year, the U.S. exported over 400 million lb. of almonds to India, making it the largest export market for California almonds. This was a 21% increase compared to the previous year. India’s almond imports from the U.S. were valued at $932 million in FY 2023.

India is the United States’ top buyer of almonds.

(U.S. Almond Board )

Doud says India has high tariffs to protect their own farmers.

“Think of it as a half billion farmers in India whose electricity, water, fuel, fertilizer and seed is all subsidized. India wants to keep that out in the country, and if we do anything that drives rural Indian folks into the cities, it would overwhelm them. This is the mindset,” Doud says. “I remind people, it was 5 or 6 years ago that India made a modicum of reforms of their domestic agricultural markets. There was so much unrest over those changes that Modi agreed upon to make, that three years later, they had to repeal the law.”

India’s Tariffs Crushed Apple Exports
U.S. apples are one commodity that has suffered from India’s retaliation in 2018.

“In 2018, India was the No. 2 market for U.S. apples until their retaliatory tariffs crushed our exports to near zero. They are rebounding back, but it might take years to return to the previous levels,” says Jim Bair, president and CEO of the U.S. Apple Association, in an interview with Farm Journal’s The Packer. “If the White House can facilitate that in a trade agreement with India, U.S. Apple wishes them Godspeed, and not a moment too soon.”

U.S. Apple says in 2018, India was the number two market for U.S. apples until retaliatory tariffs crushed their exports to near zero.

(U.S. Apple Association )

Potential With India
As the world’s most populous country, India holds massive potential if a trade deal can be struck. It boasts one of the fastest growing economies in the world with households that are seeing a high levels of consumer spending. That means agricultural products would be more accessible to a larger number of people.

According to USDA , top agricultural prospects for U.S. exporters include:

Cotton
Dairy products
Ethanol
Fresh fruit
Forest products
Processed food and beverages
Pulses
Tree nuts

USDA says in FY 2023, India imported $37 billion of agricultural and related products from across the world, with imports up 51% over the past five years.

“Proportional to its population, India imports a relatively small value of products. Comparatively, China, a country with a similar population size, imported $262.7 billion during the same period. Currently, India ranks behind much lower population countries like Canada and South Korea in total agricultural and related imports. This relatively low level of imports suggests good opportunities for future growth,” the USDA report stated.

Much of the recent growth of imports in India is with vegetable oils, which is the country’s top imported ag product.

USDA says imports of vegetable oil increased by $9 billion, nearly doubling in 5 years, to a total of $18.4 billion in FY 2023.

The United States has occasionally been a supplier of soybean oil to India, but imports face stiff competition from other substitutable oils like palm and sunflower, and from imports from India’s traditional soybean oil suppliers: Argentina and Brazil.

Iconic Holiday Road Trip Stop Returns to Its Georgia Pecan Farm Roots

Sun, 22 Dec 2024 16:31:00 GMT

Dashing through the snow in a front-wheel drive sleigh … the seasonal holiday road trip is a right of passage for many families. At one time, the roadside icon Stuckey’s was often a likely stop.

“At our peak, we had 368 stores in 40 states,” says Stephanie Stuckey, current chair of the Stuckey’s Corporation. “Stuckey’s really is synonymous with the road trip, during what I consider the era of the great American Road Trip, which would have been the 1950s to the 1970s.”

Stephanie Stuckey, current chair of the Stuckey’s Corporation.

(Stuckey’s Corporation)

The roadside oasis, and its iconic pecan candies, are woven into the fabric of highway history.

“Back then, Americans wouldn’t travel by plane. They would load up in the car, usually in a family station wagon, and drive for five days,” Stuckey says.

The company was founded during the Great Depression by pecan farmer, WS Stuckey, as a roadside pecan stand.

“He always considered himself first and foremost, a pecan farmer and a pecan broker,” adds Stuckey, his granddaughter.

Pecan farmer and Stuckey’s Corporation founder, WS Stuckey.

(Stuckey’s Corporation)

Today she’s leading a resurgence of that business, not as a highway stop, but as a pecan company with roots on Georgia farms.

“This is our big audacious goal: I want us to be the go-to pecan snack brand in the world,” she says.

Helping her on the journey is RG Lamar, a third-generation pecan farmer and company CEO.

RG Lamar, a third-generation pecan farmer and Stuckey’s Corporation CEO.

(Stuckey’s Corporation)

“I can say as a Georgia pecan grower, I may be a little bit biased, I don’t know, but I genuinely believe we grow the best pecans in the world in the state of Georgia,” Lamar smiles.

He credits ample rainfall in the southeast and higher oil content with helping grow a larger-sized nut. The result is perfect for creating candied treats at Christmas.

Today, on an in-shell basis, Stuckey’s handles about 2 million pounds of Georgia pecans a year. As a state, Georgia grows roughly 100 million pounds.

“Interestingly, roughly 10% of the pecans grown in Georgia are grown in someone’s yard,” Larmar says.

Soon, the newly refocused Stuckey’s brand will be using even more Georgia pecans as the business continues to expand.

“Why is it that when you go into the grocery store, walk down the salty snack aisle and you get to the nuts, you can find every other nut sitting in that section, but you don’t see pecans there very often,” Lamar asks.

Georgia Pecan Orchard

(Stuckey’s Corporation)

It’s a question this farmer and farmer’s granddaughter are aiming to answer.

“Of the original 368 stores there are only 12 left,” Stuckey says. “That’s OK because I saw what wasn’t on the balance sheets and that is the value of the brand.”

A brand, dumping, churning, dipping and packaging pecans, log rolls and clusters just the way the founder WS Stuckey did when he started.

“I would like to think if he were alive today, he would be really happy we’re making our comeback the way we began, as a pecan company,” Stuckey says.

Watch Christmas in the Country on Dec. 25 on AgDay TV .

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Nuts News

Promising Potential? Why India Poses the Biggest Opportunity for Trade, But Also the Biggest Challenge

Iconic Holiday Road Trip Stop Returns to Its Georgia Pecan Farm Roots