Planting

Grains Plunge With Oil, Peace Talks: Is the Rally Over?

Wed, 06 May 2026 21:55:54 GMT

Grain and hog markets were lower on Wednesday with cattle higher.

Grains Tank With Crude Oil
Grains markets were lower in tandem with the plunge in crude oil on headlines of peace talks and a possible end to the Iran war. If the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened how much lower could grain futures fall with energy markets?

Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.

“If oil continues to slide sharply lower, you know, that’s obviously going to be a big headwind for the grain markets. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe chew through this headline quicker than we saw earlier in the year and maybe get the grain markets to trading back to their fundamental backdrop and the uncertainties that lie there,” he says.

Market Hit Technical Resistance
Corn also saw technical headwinds come into play according to Sloup as July corn made a double top.

“We saw July corn futures bump up against those March highs, $4.84, $4.87 1/2, tag that top to a tee and then set back. And if you look back all the way to last spring, that was also kind of a key inflection point for the market as well. You had the RSI or the relative strength index getting into overbought territory, which has really only happened about four or five times over the last year and a half. And each of those times, you know, we did see a correction of about 10 to about 30 cents. So somewhere in that ballpark, which is what we got today. So maybe a little bit more weakness here in the near term,” he explains.

New crop December corn though he thinks can trade on its own merit once the market stabilizes.

Is the Grain Rally Over?
Sloup is not sure the grain market rally is over due to the uncertainties surrounding acreage, yield and fertilizer. That will continue to keep fund or managed money traders interested in buying commodities.

“You’ve got fertilizer concerns and you talk about the energy markets as well. I don’t think that the energy markets or crude oil specifically is going to drop straight back down to where we’re trading 50 or 60 bucks. I think those prices probably stay somewhat elevated. And the concern there was get longer, higher for longer energy prices, and that feeds into the inflation narrative. And that props up commodities as a whole and continues to draw in some managed money participation, which we’ve seen in these grain markets for the better part of really the year,” he says.

So, he thinks the pullbacks are still buying opportunities. “Maybe more so in those new crop contracts.”

Soybeans Also See Technical Resistance
Soybeans had also hit technical resistance and drug down by crude oil the market went down and closed below the breakout points on the charts.

“So, we’re kind of right back down there to that breakout point that we saw about a week and a half ago. I think it was April 29th that we broke out above that range. And now we’re just retesting it and hopefully being able to defend that. That’s going to be a key area to keep the market in check. If we break and close back below there, potentially we see another 20 to 30 cents of downside here in the near term. But again, I think we potentially settle back into that choppy sideways range,” he explains.

However, new crop soybeans have had a more bullish chart pattern than old crop.

Soybean oil also hit new contract highs before reversing lower with crude oil but Sloup doesn’t think the market did technical damage.

“It was a big pullback in the bean oil market but with what we saw in the oil complex, I don’t think it was all surprising. Really not a whole lot of damage on the chart but a bit of a caution flag here in the next week’s trade,” he adds.

Awaiting China Meeting
The soybean market should be supported with the China summit next week May 14 and 15 and there could even be some buying ramping up into the meeting on optimism about the 25 MMT new crop soybean business being confirmed.

Sloup says, “I think that certainly kind of keeps funds interested and playing, so to speak. Funds have shown an appetite in the soybean complex really all year, as well as the corn market. So I wouldn’t be surprised the optimism build going into that.”

Broader Fund Buying in Grains
Sloup says there is also optimism growing about future expectations in other market.

“You don’t have to look too far to see what’s going on in the equity complex, whether it could be the S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow, etc. Just massive participation from money managers and potential. They start to look at commodities in a similar fashion here this year. Commodities have been pretty quiet over the last couple of years. But when you zoom out and look at the historical commodity super cycles, as we like to refer to them as, they really start with the base metals, precious metals, and then flow into energy. The next year to drop would be the agricultural complex.”

Last year money managers were moving into metals, this year energy and next is the grain markets.

Has Wheat Topped?
Wheat markets were lower removing war premium but have also been removing weather premium according to Sloup.

“A lot of uphill sledding for the wheat market and it is the wheat market so it can be a little bit more irrational for lack of better terms. We had the big move higher but I think you know looking back about a week and a half ago, we had that big blow off top, new highs for the move, and then a sharp reversal. And you just saw that snowball on itself. So, $6.60 is going to be the big level to hold for that Kansas City contract. That was the breakout point and kind of the old resistance area. If we can continue to defend that, I think that the Kansas City contract. Probably holds firm and continues to mark higher highs and higher lows. Breaking close below that would make me a little bit more nervous,” he says.

The Chicago contract has done more technical damage. He says, "$6.10 to $6.16, that’s a 20 and 50 day moving average. That’s the line in the sand that we want to see hold below that. You know, there’s potentially another 30 cents a downside,” he adds.

Wheat Production Cuts In WASDE?
Will USDA made any meaningful cuts to wheat production in the May 12 WASDE?

Sloup says, “I don’t know that they’re going to make any significant adjustments. I’m not really expecting them to. I would say that the market will trade this USDA report rather quickly. And then it’s probably going to be back to headlines and what’s going on in the corn and soybean market and potentially those markets feed on each other as far as the money flow goes.”

Cattle Continue Recovery
Cattle futures were up for a second day and continue to try to recover from last Friday’s key reversals with help from higher early cash.

“Cash continues to be the leader in that market and really hold a good foundation underneath things as well as just the technical landscape of things. We tested the 20 -day moving average earlier in the week. That will be probably a key inflection point, $249.25 to $250. Break and close below there, potentially you get some long liquidation. But again, the fundamental backdrop, the herd size, the cash trade continues to be just a solid foundation for this market,” he says.

But still he says cattle are resilient. “And whenever we see the turbulence, like we saw earlier in the week, it’s almost like holding a beach ball down underwater or trying to press one down underwater where you can only push it so far down and then it pops back twice as high as you pushed it down. So that continues to be the theme for the cattle market. It seems that dips are buying opportunities.”

Plus, funds are defending their longs according to Sloup.

“They have a net long position of currently about 131,000 contracts, which is historically large, but off of the recent highs that we’ve seen,” he adds.

The one concern he has is a black swan event. “I guess the thing that would make me potentially nervous would be outside market headlines or a potential border reopening, but trying to time those is nearly impossible. So for now, dips are potentially buying opportunities. Yeah, I’m sure lower corn futures, lower gas prices Probably helped out the cattle market and some total here today as well.”

Cattle, Restest the Highs?
He thinks the cattle market can retest the record highs and negate last Friday’s reversal.

“It’s really not all that far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to grind and push to the upside. With regards to the oil market, I think it’s interesting. I would almost look at a retracement in oil futures as a potential bearish catalyst. If you look at the correlation
between those, they’ve been trading almost in tandem, obviously not today. But I think that you probably look at that more as an inflation hedge rather than just risk on, risk off,” he states.

Hogs Lower....Again
Hog futures were back lower on Wednesday unable to extend Tuesday’s gains. So what is the problem with the hog market?

Sloup says, “I wish I had a good answer for you. We’ve been trying to be optimistic here on hogs as of late, but it just continues to mark lower highs and lower lows for that June contract, the 100 level. obviously has a little bit of psychological significance behind it and seems to have a gravitational pull to it as well this week. I think if we can defend that, you know, potentially we can carve out a low here, but not only do the bulls need to defend that, but we need to see consecutive closes out above $102, $102.50. That’s the 20 and 200 day moving averages. Consecutive closes out above there, maybe neutralizes some of the technical damage that we’ve seen over the last two months.”

Funds are only long about 46,000 futures. So no huge conviction to the downside or to the upside. It seems like they might be in a wait and see mode from these levels he adds.

A Frustrating Spring: Spotty Spring Rains Push Southwest Iowa Planting Slightly Behind

Wed, 06 May 2026 18:33:18 GMT

USDA’s latest Crop Progress Report showed as of Sunday, 22 percent of Iowa’s corn crop is planted, which is right in line with the five-year average. Soybean planting sits at 11 percent, which is just slightly behind. But those statewide numbers don’t tell the whole planting story this year. In southern Iowa, spotty spring showers are creating a far more uneven planting picture for farmers trying to make progress in the field.

In the far southwestern corner of Iowa, farmer Pat Sheldon is finally back in the field and relieved to see planters rolling again after a stop-and-start spring.

“We’ll be 25 or 30 percent done with the beans by the end of the day,” says Pat Sheldon, a farmer from Percival, Iowa.

While Sheldon prefers to be wrapped up planting by now, this season is running just a bit behind his typical pace.

“Usually we like to try to have almost everything done by now. We’re shooting for the end of April, but we usually don’t make it. So we’re a little behind where we normally are,” Sheldon says.“For no sooner than we started, we’ve come right along.”

About 80 percent of his corn is already planted, but some acres remain too saturated to finish, especially on his heavier ground.

After being out of the field for much of the past week due to wet conditions, Sheldon says the moisture hasn’t been as severe as in other parts of the region, but still enough to delay progress.

“We’re not as wet as it’s been east and south, but just enough to keep you out,” Sheldon says.

Even so, he is confident that progress will accelerate quickly if the forecast holds.

“The forecast looks good for here anyway, dry weather for a week or so, and I can get a lot done on the bottom when it’s dry,” Sheldon says.“ Just need dry weather and sunshine and let us work. It won’t take long. It’ll go in fast once it stays dry like this for a few days.”

Input costs have been a concern across agriculture, but Sheldon says his operation avoided the worst of recent fertilizer price spikes by planning ahead.

“We had all of our dry on last fall and over half of our anhydrous before it got too nasty for us to keep going, and we finished it up this spring,” Sheldon says. “We had it all pre-bought before all the prices went crazy, so we were fortunate on that aspect.

With planting back up and running this week, Sheldon says their operation is “in good shape,” and it’s that sense of stability is a stark contrast to conditions just seven years ago.

Sheldon’s family farm is situated next to the Missouri River. It’s fertile ground that’s been in his family for generations. But in 2019, Sheldon’s farm was devastated by flooding along the Missouri River, with water levels reaching several feet high in areas that are now being planted.

“There was probably three feet of water where we’re standing. Nothing got planted in the bottom ground. There was some stuff in the hills, but that was about it,” says Sheldon.

The floodwaters lingered for months, leaving lasting reminders still visible today.

“The water was here about 100 days. It was late June, I think, when they closed the breach,” Sheldon says.

And he says for the water lines still stained on the rain bins, it’s a constant reminder of what the Missouri River can take away, often without warning.

“You have a reminder every day,” says Sheldon. “You see it every day.”

Farming along the Missouri River means managing both risk and resilience. Despite the challenges, Sheldon says recent years have brought more favorable growing conditions, and he’s hopeful this year is shaping up to be the same.

“Are you optimistic about this growing season,” we asked.

“Very, very, as far as raising a crop,” Sheldon says of his outlook for 2026. “We’ve got decent moisture, probably better than we had going in last year. We’ve been lucky the last two or three years—timely rains, not a lot of rain, but at the right time—and we’ve raised really good crops. We’re hoping for more of the same.”

Metabolic Weed Resistance Crisis Builds Across The Heartland

Wed, 06 May 2026 16:50:37 GMT

Waterhemp, Palmer amaranth and some other tough broadleaf weeds and grasses are no longer slipping past just single herbicides. Across the Corn Belt and beyond, they are tolerating entire herbicide programs. Weed scientists say that pattern points to a critical issue more farmers are facing: metabolic resistance.

Unlike traditional target-site resistance, which is often specific to a single herbicide class, metabolic resistance is even worse because it can confer cross-resistance to multiple, unrelated herbicide groups .

Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Extension weed scientist often warns that when a tough weed like waterhemp learns to metabolize one herbicide, it becomes easier for it to “learn” to detoxify others. That ability has helped lead to the 7-way resistance with waterhemp seen in some Illinois counties, according to weed scientist Patrick Hanel, one of Hager’s colleagues.

At least 13 states have reported having some degree of “highly suspected” or confirmed cases of metabolic weed resistance. Here are three of the broadleaf weeds demonstrating metabolic resistance and states where they’re located:

Along with these broadleaf weeds, some common and giant ragweed, marestail/horseweed, annual (Italian) ryegrass and barnyardgrass populations have also demonstrated metabolic resistance.

(Weed Science Society of America, GROW, BASF, Syngenta)

Target-site resistance can be identified through DNA tests. But metabolic resistance is a “guessing game” involving hundreds of potential enzymes working in tandem, making it difficult for scientists and farmers to know which products will still work in their specific fields.

Tommy Butts sees the trend for metabolic resistance taking root in Indiana. He says PPO resistance in waterhemp is “getting widespread,” and the failures are expanding to other chemistries as well.

“We had more complaints last year about things like mesotrione or Callisto starting to fail, which is really scary in the corn acres,” says Butts, Purdue University Extension weed scientist. “Corn is supposed to be our easy year to control waterhemp, and now, all of a sudden, we start losing Callisto.” He addresses this in detail in the latest Purdue Crop Chat .

The bad news does not stop there.

“You start talking auxins and glufosinate, and we have confirmed resistance in the state to those,” he says. “I wouldn’t say that’s as widespread, but it’s definitely popping up.”

With metabolic resistance chipping away at PPOs, HPPDs, atrazine partners, auxins and glufosinate, the old playbook of “just switch products” no longer works well.

“Hammer With Residuals” And Build Effective Combinations

Butts’ first message to corn and soybean farmers is straightforward: no more solo herbicide passes in the field.

“We have to hammer weeds with effective residuals and then mix up our posts as much as possible,” he says.

In his view, that means at least two things for row-crop growers. First, use layered residual programs that keep fields clean as long as possible and reduce the number of emerged weeds that ever see a post pass. Second, use post-emerge applications that combine multiple, truly effective modes of action at full labeled rates.

Cutting rates, he warns, is exactly how growers “train” metabolism-based resistance to take root.

With soybean trait systems, he pushes hard against relying on a single flagship product.

“If we’re growing Enlist soybeans, don’t just rely on Enlist and don’t just rely on Liberty,” Butts advises. “Do the tank mix. The tank mix trumps everything.”

This field shows the result of waterhemp seeds that were spread during harvest by a combine.

(Aaron Hager, University of Illinois)

Pay More Up Front To Avoid Making Expensive “Revenge Sprays”

Metabolic resistance can thrive when weeds are hit with chemistry they can partially tolerate. That is why Butts keeps coming back to strong, early, soil-applied programs.

He hears pushback from farmers every year on using multiple products in the tank.

“A lot of people tell me, ‘Well, it costs way too much up front with $20 for a pre. Corn gets even more expensive,’” he acknowledges.
However, Butts points to work by Purdue University Extension and other states showing those dollars pay off when the entire season is measured.

“If you can get a strong residual program out and get it activated, the whole-season economics of it makes sense,” Butts says. “It’s consistently shown that if you have that strong pre up front, you don’t have what I like to call the revenge sprays in August, where we’re going across the field three different times trying to kill waist-high waterhemp.”

Check out this tool from GROW on how to address waterhemp specifically.

Protect Herbicide Tools To Extend Their Use

As more herbicide modes of action come under pressure, Butts singles out metribuzin as an example of a product that still pulls its weight in soybeans.

“Metribuzin is a big one in soybeans, because we don’t have a lot of resistance to that,” he says.

“I will also put in the plug for AMS in general, across the board,” Butts says. “That always helps with some of those products… when we start getting later in the season, we get more stressed weeds. AMS even tends to help there.”

Underlying all of it is a blunt warning about what happens if growers decide to skimp on their weed control efforts.

“If you let it go even one year, now you’ve made yourself a mess for the next five to 10 years,” he says. “You’ve got to try and stay on top of weeds as much as possible.”

5 Practical Recommendations To Address Metabolic Resistance

Because metabolic resistance is so unpredictable, weed scientists have shifted their advice away from “rotating chemicals” toward a “zero-threshold” approach to control. The following metabolic resistance management recommendations have been presented by Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Weed Scientist, and Beck’s agronomists:

1. The primary focus of metabolic resistance management should be on decreasing the weed seed bank. This means that weeds must be eliminated before they ever go to seed.

2. A robust residual herbicide program should be used, not because residuals represent a different herbicide family but because they eliminate weeds at the earliest growth stages – slashing contributions to the weed seed bank.

3. Physically cutting weeds out of the crop must be included in the management plan, because physical elimination of weed escapes further slashes contributions to the weed seed bank.

4. Post-herbicide programs should shift from calendar-based timing to scouting-based timing. Once weeds break through a pre-emerge residual program, they must be eliminated. Such early targeting further slashes contributions to the weed seed bank.

5. Mechanical techniques, field cultivators, etc., should be used where possible to further the cause of decreased seed production.

Strait of Hormuz Crisis: Why Fertilizer Relief is Years Away for U.S. Farmers

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:55:30 GMT

As the Iran war and the closure of the Strait reach its tenth week fertilizer supplies aren’t moving. That means the window for a fertilizer price correction this spring has officially slammed shut.

Fertilizer Prices Near Record High Before Iran War

Phosphate and nitrogen prices were already elevated before the Iran war according to Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer with StoneX, as China, the world’s number two nitrogen exporter, banned exports.

Urea: Prices have nearly doubled since early December.
Potash: Up approximately 10% since the start of the year.

Then came the shutdown of the Strait of Hormuz which added insult to injury as three of the top 10 largest urea and anhydrous exporters are cut off. Linville points out that’s because the Strait closure also shut down LNG or the natural gas supplies used to produce nitrogen fertilizer products, which further elevated prices at New Orleans, Louisiana.

Even if the Strait opened today, the last tons of fertilizer won’t reach U.S. farmers for 60 days. Still Linville is not sounding the alarm despite figures quoted by USDA officials and other trade groups that 20% of the U.S. fertilizer supply was not in place for spring planting.

“I believe North America’s actually in good shape on urea. Now, you look at anhydrous, we produce most of what we need and we’re sitting okay there. From UAN, we produce most of what we need,” he says.

(Source: Kpler)

U.S. Cheaper Than Global Prices

Still Linville says U.S. farmers are in a better position than the rest of the world as U.S. nitrogen and phosphate values are $250 lower than global fertilizer prices, on the aggressive end. He says using more conservative estimates that number tips slightly lower.

“If I go low on the Middle East price based on where futures have been trading, if I go low on the vessel freight, if I go low on every single thing, it’s still $150 a ton cheaper than that rate.”

Jordan Scott, who farms near Valley Springs, South Dakota, pre-booked his fertilizer but some farmers in his area are not that fortunate.

“Some couldn’t even get it for spring or had to wait and when they could get it, the prices were just 30 to 40% higher,” Scott says.

Scott says that is forcing some farmers to cut corn acreage for spring of 2026. “I’ve heard some of that where people are switching rotations to go to more beans. It takes less fertilizer to produce beans.”

Early estimates have called for a one to two million acre cut in corn plantings off the 95.3 million acres in the USDA Prospective Plantings Report, with a direct shift to soybeans.

Linville isn’t sure the cut to corn acres will be as high as predicted, and he’s seen no evidence of surveys quoting nearly half of farmers can’t afford fertilizer.

“I have not seen anything that indicates demand is down 50% across the board. We’ve not seen those type of numbers. Nothing close to it. In fact, some people are starting to come back and say, I’ve actually been surprised how many more sales I’ve made,” he says.

No Fix to Fertilizer Prices for 2026 and 2027?

Scott, who is also secretary of the American Soybean Association, says that group has been urging the Commerce Department to take action and drop the countervailing duties (CVDs) on Moroccan phosphate imports into the U.S. He knows there isn’t a short-term fix to the fertilizer price increase, but that would help.

“We’ve been pressuring the administration to work on the the countervailing duties. There was a study that came out that said it costs farmers almost $7 billion last year in in extra cost for fertilizer,” he explains.

Last week, the Trump administration announced its plan to lower fertilizer prices, which includes a Department of Justice (DOJ) investigation into price fixing by U.S. fertilizer companies and clamping down on anti-trust enforcement. USDA data indicates four players control 75% of the fertilizer supplies in North America and represent a monopoly.

Linville begs to differ.

“Is there really a monopoly? No. A monopoly is a market controlled by one party. Oligopoly, that’s where the argument could be had. That’s a, you know, controlled by a few people. Again, I’m splitting hairs here, right? I think the verbiage is important to talk about,” he says.

However, he points out that fertilizer is a global market and prices are also influenced by global and geopolitical events such as those playing out right now in the Middle East.

Is Domestic Investment the Answer?

The Trump administration has also assembled a plan to uncover more critical mineral production and to provide investments into U.S. fertilizer facilities. However, Linville says fertilizer production manufacturing infrastructure is expensive and so it will take a long time to fix prices by expanding U.S. fertilizer production capacity.

As such, Linville thinks the near to record high prices for fertilizer will linger into the fall of 2026 and even the spring of 2027 for U.S. and farmers around the world.

“This will still have phosphate and nitrogen impacts on the price spring of ’27. I really struggle to see how we can solve this in such a short amount of time,” he adds.

Grains See Profit Taking, Hedge Pressure Off Highs: Cattle Stage Recovery

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:20:50 GMT

Grains ended lower on Tuesday with livestock higher.

Corn and Soybeans Ease on Profit Taking
Grains were lower on Tuesday seeing some profit taking after corn and soybeans made some new highs for the move on Monday.

Greg McBride of Allendale, says the market also saw some farmer selling and hedge pressure.

“Especially with the July contract going up and meeting that same high that it made back in March. It looks like an opportunity for these producers to get some of the last gas sales on old crop. You saw most of the negativity was up front, those May and July contracts.

December corn and soybeans also retested recent highs before hitting chart resistance.

He says, “The beans were up at just about their highs. The old crop beans, their old highs, are within 15 to 25 cents of it. So there’s some concerns about maybe getting up to the nosebleed section, especially at this time of the year when the markets do tend to put tops in. Anywhere from May to early June.”

Crude Oil Anchors Losses
The lower crude oil market also weighed on corn and soybeans and even wheat according to McBride.

“We see the market step back on Tuesday with the crude but we’re playing this back and forth game. So I think you’ve got to be careful about where some of the strength or weakness is coming from,” he points out.

He says money has been flowing into the grains due to the energy component but without a fundamental push it can easily reverse.

Fast Planting Pace
Another factor weighing on corn and soybeans was the fast planting pace at 38% nationally on corn, 4% ahead of average. Soybean planting was also at 33%, which is 10% ahead of the five year average.

Although the trend has been growing the last few years plant soybeans early this pace does support production. “Usually being ahead of pace does mean that we’re going to see a trend or above on on yields barring any major weather issues,” he says.

Plus, he says in areas that were struggling just a few days of favorable weather can result in some major progress.

“I think the guys in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, where they’re a little bit slower, we’ll see that pick up here over the next couple of weeks too,” he adds.

Soybeans Well Supported Ahead of China Meeting
McBride thinks that especially soybeans will be supported on any breaks heading into next week’s trade summit in China.

“I think that’s part of the reason that we’ve seen the bounce recently. You go back to October when we saw this similar lead up to the meeting between Trump and Xi. I don’t know that we get anything out of this for soybeans. It’ll probably turn into something more for agricultural in general purchases, but it’s definitely something the market’s going to be watching for,” he says.

He’s in the camp that the extra 8 MMT of old crop soybeans mentioned by President Trump is unlikely but if it is that would shock the market.

“We haven’t heard anything about that since early February. So if that comes out, that will be a market mover, especially for those soybeans,” he says.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact
Even if the China buys the 25 MMT of new crop soybeans the market may sell off anyway according to McBride.

“The 25 million metric tons for this year, for 27 and 28, I think you’ve got to have that priced in already,” he explains.

Now it’s one of those things where we are status quo. You’ve got to see some sort of a weather issue or you’ve got to see. I know everybody wants to

Wheat Consolidation Continues
Wheat futures continued to consolidate off the recent two year highs taking out risk premium, including weather premium with rain in the forecast for drought areas says McBride.

“Well, the wheat’s an interesting one because it’s so friendly depending on where you’re at. The Southwestern belt is dry. There’s a lot of acres that are going to be up for abandonment. There’s a lot of areas now, right, as we talk, that this week, this tonight, or on Tuesday night into Wednesday, you may be seeing some frost, some freezes, even some snow in some of those areas. So there’s some concerns about this crop out there,” he says.

However, the market is also driven by the crude oil market. “So you see the weakness in the crude on Tuesday and the wheat followed it. What happens if we go up another $4 or $5 in crude Wednesday or Thursday does the wheat take off to the high side again?”

Wheat Holds Support
Wheat futures did hold support on the charts to keep the uptrend intact and the funds defending their long position.

He says, “For right now, and you’ve seen the Minneapolis position for the funds has gone to a record long. KC is long. Chicago is just slightly long at this point when it comes to the managed money positions. That’s not a situation that you take lightly. They don’t tend to stick into those
long positions for wheat. But when they start to build and they build like they have, especially in the KC in the Minneapolis on either drought or smaller crop because of less acres, that could be a situation that maybe sticks around for a little bit. And maybe what we’re doing really is resetting the overall dominant range to a little bit higher in that wheat market.”

Funds have not been this long in wheat since June of 2022.

May WASDE Confirm Smaller Crop?
Will the May WASDE confirm the smaller winter wheat crop or will the market get that news from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour next week?

McBride says, “Yeah, I think it’s the wheat tour will probably have a better look at it. You’ve still got some areas that are coming out of dormancy. I don’t know how much the USDA is going to want to step out on their WASDE report, but I think that the wheat tour is going to tell us a lot as we go through it.”

The rate of abandonment may be the key which can be a wild card. “I hear a lot of producers talking about abandonment in January, February, but then it comes out that they end up with a crop that’s 30 to 50 bushels. I do think just based off of some of the customers that I’ve talked to, there is going to be more abandonment than other years. It’s hard to gauge at this point right now. I know there’s a lot of insurance guys out there checking fields to see what’s available to them.”

Cattle Market Recovers Tuesday
Live and feeder cattle futures staged a recovery on Tuesday after holding key support areas on Monday’s set back and with lower corn prices.

However, McBride says there was also some early cash trade at higher money of $255 to $257, which is unusual this early in the week.

“So you had a strong cash trade last week. We were up $8 or $9 from the previous week. You started getting this early week cash trade on Monday and then some on Tuesday is an interesting look because we don’t see that very often. So to have steady to even up to two dollars higher does push this market a little bit,” he explains.

Plus, boxed beef was higher on Tuesday. So, he thinks Monday’s action was tied to news of the DOJ probe of meat packers.

“This is a market that’s in an uptrend and has been in a long-term uptrend. So lately, these sell-offs, especially when it’s $5, $6, $7 in the feeders, has been a buying opportunity for speculators especially,” he adds.

So higher cash could negate Friday’s key reversal.

DOJ Probe
With an announcement expected Friday on more action against the meat packing industry to get beef prices down that could spook the market again.

However McBride says this is not the first investigation and no changes have ever resulted from it.

“It’s one of those things, it needs to go further. They need to find something or they need to do something about it. But just having a probe, I don’t think that does anything for us substantially,” he adds.

Hog Market Bounces
The hog market finally bounced off of four month lows with the help of the rally in cattle and as futures held support.

McBride says, “We took out support from like a week ago, two weeks ago on Monday. We took that low out on Tuesday. The reversal here looks good. I’m hoping what we’ve seen is we’ve finally seen a little bit of a fight for for seasonals in that market. You know, we talk about seasonals and all these other markets, but as you go into spring, you start to see the procurement for for summer grilling season. That’ll be the one to really watch when it comes to the to the pork side of things. Can we get some sort of a retest of, you know. just getting back up to kind of 50% retracement. That puts you around like $106, $105, something like that in those June, July, August contracts.”

Build A High-Yield Powerhouse From The Bottom Up

Tue, 05 May 2026 17:40:08 GMT

The planter monitor in your tractor cab insists the seed corn is tucked away at a 2.5-inch planting depth, but Randy Dowdy says to question that placement. The high-yield row-crop grower explains there is often a difference between what the planter monitor says and what the soil shows — and the gap between the two can rob farmers of yield potential before the crop ever breaks the soil surface.

“You have to distinguish between the planting depth and what we call the germination depth. It’s a potential problem we talk about all the time with our farmers in Total Acre ,” says Dowdy of his agronomic business he co-owns with David Hula, world champion corn grower.

Iowa State Extension defines planting depth as the placement of the seed corn in the soil, while germination depth (emergence) is where the corn nodal roots will form, regardless of the planting depth.

The discrepancy that can occur between the planting depth and germination depth often happens at the moment the seed trench is closed or shortly thereafter. The planter might place the seed at 2.5 inches, but the closing system can shift seed upward — especially in dry, loose soils. As the dirt settles the seed can end up germinating at a significantly shallower depth than the grower intended.

“When we check seed placement in an open furrow, there’s no doubt about it, we were planting at 2.5 inches,” Dowdy notes in a recent video. But as he moves behind the machine to inspect the closed row, the reality changes. In Dowdy’s field demonstration, the shift is dramatic, showing the seed is now sitting much closer to the soil surface.

“When we dig into that closed trench, we find that the seed is now sitting in the ground at about 1.5 inches to 1.75 inches, and that’s not what you want,” Dowdy says. Watch the video on Farm Journal TV .

The result of that shallow germination depth is a fundamental threat to corn, Iowa State Extension reports. Shallow germination can impact early root development and contribute to rootless corn syndrome, susceptibility to herbicide injury, poor drought tolerance and other issues that can impact growth and development throughout the season and, ultimately, reduce yield.

(Farm Journal TV)

To combat this, Dowdy’s philosophy is simple: trust what you learn using a shovel to dig behind the planter to locate the seed; don’t depend only on what the planter monitor in the tractor cab shows.

Dowdy and Hula advocate for establishing a consistent germination depth for seed corn across the field, ensuring that plants have the strong foundation they need to thrive.

“For proper root development, we like to maintain a consistent two-inch germination depth,” advises Dowdy, who’s based near Valdosta, Ga.

Dan Quinn, Purdue University Extension corn specialist, says the “most common seeding depths recommended for corn range between 1.5 and 2 inches deep, and these planting depths can work very well within most conditions, however, certain soil moisture conditions at planting may warrant further examination/change in seeding depth.”

This year, with dry soil conditions in the Southeast, farmers have had difficulty achieving a 2-inch planting depth consistently for good emergence. Dowdy’s directive to growers in dry ground is to account for the “settle” in soils at planting by adjusting planter settings to go a bit deeper with planting.

Iowa State Extension agrees, noting that a 3-inch depth is usually OK in drier soils. While deeper planting can take slightly longer to emerge, it can lead to more uniform stands compared to shallow planting.

“My advice in these (dry) conditions is to plant a bit deeper, knowing the ground will settle, and you’ll get better root development,” Dowdy says.

By prioritizing the physical reality of the seedbed over the digital feedback in the cab, Dowdy believes farmers can unlock better performance without any additional overhead. By doing so, growers “will do a better job, and you’ll have proper root development and help you on your yields for free,” he says.

You can hear more about how this season is shaping up for Dowdy and Hula on their latest edition of Breaking Barriers With R&D podcast with Chip Flory on AgriTalk. Listen at the link below:

Grains See Profit Taking with Lower Energy, Crop Progress: Cattle Recover

Tue, 05 May 2026 16:06:31 GMT

Grains were lower early Tuesday, with livestock higher.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets were all lower to start Tuesday seeing some routine profit taking after hitting new highs for the move and even some new contract highs in parts of the corn and soybean complex, according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading.

He says the markets were also watching the energy sector which was seeing some lower prices.

“I think every day when you wake up, you got to ask yourself, where’s crude at? Where’s energy markets? And that’s the first place to go to look to maybe set the tone for where these markets are going to be at across your grain. So, yeah, that’s the first place to look. Dec new crop corn made a new high overnight. But yeah, pulling off and testing that $5 level on new crop corn are attractive levels for producers,” he says.

So, there may also be some farmer selling. “Yeah those round numbers stick in producers mind for sales targets,” he says.

Dec $5 Corn, Now Where?
He says now that Dec corn has closed above $5 there may be more upside to the market, especially as funds continue to buy.

“I look at managed money positions quite often and funds have been on the right side of the grain market since the first of March. You know, the end of February when those March options came off the books, funds were net short 13,000 corn contracts. And now as of last Tuesday,
264,000 long. And there’s estimates that they’re closer to 300,000 net long currently. So you’ve got to respect that number. That’s well off the record high for their net long position in corn. So there’s room for them to add to that length,” he adds.

Still he says to respect where the funds are at and prepare for a pull back on long liquidation.

Money Flow, Crude Oil Supports Grains
Still, he says the money flow has been favoring grains and the market should be supported on inflationary concerns as long as crude oil prices stay elevated.

“Yeah, it goes back to where are the energy markets? What are they doing? You got crude above $100 in this area. That’s going to support the market. Rising prices at the pump, they make ethanol more competitive compared to gasoline. But on the flip side, Michelle, too, we got to think about gasoline. That’s the main delivery mechanism for getting ethanol and driving ethanol consumption. So if you have higher prices at the pump, is that going to curb usage? And then that kind of goes back to inflation too. Is that going to squeeze consumers’ pocketbooks and actually cause less ethanol usage?

He says many people are looking for a reduction in ethanol usage in the May WASDE and the next few reports.

Fast Planting Pace
The fast planting pace is also weighing on corn and soybeans as U.S. corn seeding pace was at 38% Monday with the five year average at 34%. Soybean planting at 33% was 10% ahead of average.

He says, “No significant problems getting the crop in you look at corn planting pace above the five -year average pace is you know just screaming we’re getting beans in the ground and they’re ahead of normal. That’s good until the rains I guess don’t come but that doesn’t look to be a problem right now.”

That early planting is also taking production risk out of the market he adds.

“So, each day we plug along in this production cycle you know we’re getting the crop in the ground then it’s early vegetative growth and then as we enter reproductive growth putting seeds on the plants and and production the more we know about a market the more certainty we get on the supply side the less risk there out is out there and the market becomes less concerned about a production problem,” he adds.

The market is also watching the dry conditions in the Brazil and if that will trim production on the second crop corn.

Soybean Market Also Makes New Highs
Soybeans made new highs for the move on Monday so the market is seeing profit taking and some farmer selling pressure especially with fast planting.

However, Huck says the market will be well supported going into the China meeting next week and with the May WASDE on Tuesday.

“So next week could be a really dynamic week and who knows what to expect out of that. So we will get the WASDE, we will get the first look at the new crop balance sheets for both corn, beans, and wheat,” he says.

China Meeting in Focus
Plus, the volatility of the China Summit with President Trump and President Xi meeting on May 14 and 15 will be in focus.

“We’ll see what comes out of there. My biggest concern about that meeting and what’s changed over the last month is that Iran and the conflict there will take more precedence over a bigger, larger ag trade deal. It may take the air out of the room a little bit as they focus on other things,” he says.

The concern could also be if the soybean market has already price it in then there may be a “buy the rumor sell the fact reaction” which could produce a selloff.

“You have these headlines the anticipation of an event and like you said there you can buy the rumor and sell the fact and where will this market go so a lot of a lot of pieces of the puzzle ahead,” he says.

Marketing Strategy?
Huck says seasonals are in the farmers favor right now and so they need to watch the market to take advantage of opportunities to price.

“Producers should keep an eye on these grain prices and where they’re at and be opportunistic don’t rule out where things can go but uh respect where they’re at today and where we’ve come from,” he adds.

Wheat Market Falls on Conditions, Rains
Wheat futures are trading nearly 35 cents off of the 2-year highs scored in soft red and hard red winter wheat contracts just a week and a half ago.

The crop condition rating on Monday was up 1% to 31% good to excellent and there are forecasts for rain in the next few days. In fact there was already some rain falling on Tuesday morning in some areas of Colorado and Nebraska.

“Wheat’s been on a tear this year. You know, one of the best performing commodities. I think July KC wheat is, you know, traded almost a $2 trading range since the first of the year. It rallied from $5.35 up to $7.18. We’ve pulled back off of that. We’re about 35 cents off the highs on the July KC wheat contract,” he says.

Crop conditions are bleak the further west you travel into Eastern Colorado and the extreme Western Kansas the panhandle.

However, says, “The wheat crop looks tough but in my travels here I’ve seen you know seen some ground over the last couple weeks traveling around. I’ve actually kind of been impressed with pleasantly surprised with some of what the wheat looks like. So wheat’s a very resilient crop. We often joke that it, you know, needs nine lives to kill it. And I don’t know what life we’re on. Some of it has spent all of them, but I wouldn’t underestimate. I think there’s more potential out there than than maybe what we thought a couple of weeks ago. And yeah, we’ll see. A rain, I think. still help some things.”

He was surprised though with the slight improvement in crop conditions on Monday.

“We really saw kind of a separation where some of that, the fair either went up into good and excellent, or it drifted back into the poor, very poor. So there’s definitely have and have-nots out there in wheat country, and it’s a resilient crop. It’s used up a lot of its lives. Don’t count it out,” he adds.

Wheat Marketing Opportunity
Huck says there are some opportunities to market wheat right now.

“It’s a really difficult crop to market to, Michelle. Are we going to raise 60 bushel wheat or are we going to raise 10 bushel wheat? So options make a good tool to be using there to protect these prices. And if you’re not doing something on 26 or you feel like you can’t, maybe look out there at 27 and see what you can do out there on 27 crop,” he explains.

Kansas Wheat Tour
The Wheat Quality Council tour is headed for Kansas May 11-14 and Huck expects a mixed bag regarding what they find in the field.

“I think you’re going to see some extreme photos of browned out wheat with no heads and just big bare spots. I think you’re going to see some thin wheat. I think you’re going to see some frost freeze damage wheat. You’re going to get a basket of a little bit of everything. But I think there’s going to be some pockets out there where the wheat looks better than expected. And maybe an average, below average type of crop would be my anticipation. It’ll be interesting to see when we get the boots on the ground. And some of that freeze damage is out there, too, because that’s one of the most difficult things to look at, especially from the 70-mile-an-hour drive-by look that I often get at wheat,” he states.

The key to production may be the abandonment of acres and he says that may not show up yet in the May WASDE.

“Typically the USDA takes a scaled approach to making those adjustments, but you never know what to expect when it comes to printing a number on paper,” he says.

Cattle Market Trying to Recover
The cattle market was higher early on Tuesday trying to recover from the key reversals scored on Friday.

The market made record highs that day in both live and feeder cattle futures and then ended lower and continued to sell off Monday.

So can the market make a full recovery?

Huck says, “The cattle market’s strong and we’re up here, you know, very near record levels, just off those record levels, looking at feeders, looking at fats, you know, May feeders posted contract highs Friday, $378.27, closed yesterday, $366.60. You know, we have a $12 off the high just yesterday,”

However, he points out May’s beef month and grilling season is just ahead.

“There’s a lot of fundamental supportive factors for the beef market going forward. But one of the biggest questions in my mind is the health of the consumer. That’s to me is what’s going to drive demand and drive this market going forward. If they show resiliency to continue buying beef because they like the way it tastes, they like the health consciousness of it. It’s a nutrient dense protein that brings lots of stuff, lots of good stuff to consumers. If they’ve got an appetite for beef, I would not guess how long this good market can last,” he adds.

Cattle Market Resilient
The cattle market has also been resilient in the face of bearish headlines. While it did trade bearish in reaction to the announced DOJ probe of meat packers it doesn’t take long for the fundamentals to came back into focus.

“There’s a lot of headlines out there that get slung around and you never know when the trade’s going to trade them and when they’re going to completely ignore them,” he says.

Cash is King
Still with record cash last week that will support the market and the strong cash trade moving foward.

This week the cash market may be more quiet after a week of big gains and last week’s early trade.

“Wholesale beef prices there’s just some natural ebb and flow as to what the packer needs to do to manage the inventory manage their margin and then you’ll manage the supply on the feed yard side so lots of ebb and flow in this market the fundamentals haven’t really changed but
you never know when they’re gonna they are going to change,” he says.

Cash Feeders Strong
The cash feeder market has not cooled off which should also support the feeder cattle futures.

“Right. Yeah, we’re the index is moving around quite a bit. A couple of weeks ago, we saw a pullback on it with some headlines. You kind of got to watch energy markets in the macro markets as well whenever you’re looking at cattle. And we see some pullbacks, some sell offs, ten dollar sell offs. But cash data last week was pretty strong and bouncing back. Watch that cash, not just the the index average change each day, but the daily data that goes into the feeder cattle index each. each day that also provides some clues as to where things are going,” he adds.

From Football to Farming, 2026 is a Season of Ups and Downs

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 02:30:42 GMT

An early start to planting season doesn’t mean Cody White’s worries are out of the woods in DeWitt County, Ill. On Monday, 1.5" to 5" of rain as well as hail, straight-line winds and tornadoes hit his area. This year, White’s beans were planted earlier than ever before, April 14, which means he expects he’ll have to replant.

“We were off to almost a picture-perfect start here,” he says. “That has now been flipped on its head.”

However, the first-generation farmer is accustomed to changing directions. White’s NFL career is helping him make the game-time decision to navigate the highs and lows of the 2026 season.

From NFL to the Farm

After a standout collegiate career at Illinois State University, where he started as tight end and later moved to the offensive line, White signed with the Houston Texans in 2012 as an undrafted free agent. White’s third season was looking up when he ruptured his Achilles tendon.

(Cody White)

“That shut my year down. I had to have it restructured, repaired, tried to come back. It wasn’t the same. It wasn’t enough time,” he says. “I fought, fought, fought, and then finally there comes a day when football is done with you, and that’s just when my time was.”

The shift in 2016 forced him to pivot toward a new profession. Today, White farms with his father-in-law and sells seed for Wyffels Hybrids. He notes that the transition from the football field was more natural than some might expect.

“Football and farming — there’s a lot of similarities,” White says. “They both have an offseason, the planning, the game planning, executing that plan and knowing when to change it.”

Adjusting the Game Plan

Changing the game plan is exactly what White has had to do over the past three years. This growing season, expensive fertilizer and rising diesel prices are the primary problems he is trying to tackle.

While White secured his fertilizer for this year, he admits that diesel costs are at the top of his mind.

“I wish I would have booked our spring use back in December or January,” White says. “It was sub-$3 then. It’s one of those things that are out of your control, right? You just kind of control what you can control.”

To manage the squeeze, White says they are cutting back where possible. But he says there is only so much he can trim before it impacts his crops.

Concerns Over Market Concentration

White is keeping a close eye on the numerous dynamics in the fertilizer industry. He’s glad to see members of the president’s Cabinet meeting with industry leaders to discuss rising costs.

“I’m all for capitalism, but at some point, when there are three companies running everything, they’re able to dictate,” White explains. “We watch commodity prices go up, and now fertilizer prices are up. We’re just trading dollars constantly.”

In a game of pennies, or inches, White thinks most farmers will find a way to make the numbers work for the remainder of this year. However, he thinks 2027 could prove tough for many farmers.

“Football is a game of ups and downs,” White says. “You’re never too down; you’re never too up. That’s kind of the world we’re living in right now.”

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Crop Progress Throughout the Midwest

According to the latest USDA reports, approximately one-quarter of the U.S. corn and soybean crops are now in the ground. Despite a pattern of spring storms moving across the Midwest, farmers are finding windows of opportunity to advance the 2024 planting season.

Northwest Iowa: Emergence Underway

In Northwest Iowa, Matt McCarthy is seeing significant progress. McCarthy has wrapped up corn planting and is roughly 75% finished with his soybeans. He expects to finish soybean planting by the end of the week. Progress on McCarthy’s farm is currently ahead of last year’s pace, largely because recent rains have missed his location.

“Yesterday [the crop] just was spiking through, and then with this little bit of rain really softened the top, and it’s coming up pretty nice,” McCarthy says. “It’s cold, probably 53 degrees right now, but you can row it. Those fields planted on the 14th and even some corn on the 17th are spiking through.”

Minnesota and Northeast Iowa: Rain and Cold Slow Momentum

Near Mankato, Minn., Chris Schenk reports that his soybean planting was completed last Saturday. He managed to seed more than 200 acres of corn before being sidelined by three-quarters of an inch of rain on Monday. While Schenk doesn’t expect to return to the field until early next week, he notes that roughly 60% of farmers in his area have already finished.

Farther south in Cresco, Iowa, Darrick Barnikle is still waiting for the right window. While fertilizer applications are nearly complete, planting has not yet begun on his farm. Cool temperatures and scattered showers have kept planters in the shed for most growers in the area, with Barnikle estimating only 5% of local corn and soybeans are planted. With a drier forecast ahead, activity is expected to ramp up midweek, though growers remain cautious of a forecasted dip to 32°F Friday night.

Southwest Iowa and Beyond: Navigating Variable Rains

In Percival, Iowa, Pat Sheldon reports that weekend rainfall was highly variable. Despite the scattered totals, planting progress remains strong in his area. Sheldon estimates that 75% of the corn and 20% of the soybeans are already in the ground, with planters expected to roll again later this week.

Meanwhile, for Chris Harrell, recent rains will likely keep fieldwork on pause for most of the week. Harrell currently has about two-thirds of his soybeans planted, but corn progress sits at roughly 20%. He hopes to return to the field by the weekend.

From 60 to 600 Bu. Per Acre: Is 1,000-Bushel-Corn Next?

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 12:23:13 GMT

Across parts of the South, farmers are sitting on the sidelines this spring, not not because fields are too wet, but because they’re too dry to plant. With dust blowing and soil moisture in short supply, planters are parked as growers wait for rain, a stark reversal of the delays they’re more accustomed to and a reminder that in agriculture, timing is everything.

“We’ve been dry all season so far and we actually stopped planting because we’ve been so dry. Can’t just get the planter in the ground,” says David Hula, a farmer in Charles City, Virginia.

After six weeks of high winds and little to no rainfall, Hula says the conditions are unlike anything he’s experienced.

“I talked to my cousin who’s a decade older than I am, and this is the driest he’s ever seen. And I’ve talked to my agronomist, he says we’re the third or fourth driest on record since 1875 for this time of year. So this is uncharted territory for me right now,” he says.

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While part of his crop remains unplanted, Hula is encouraged by what’s already in the ground.

“Everything that we’ve planted so far, I feel really good. Emergence has been spot on. Even their soybeans came up good,” Hula says. “We waited till things warmed up, you know, I’m very diligent and patient about that. And all that corn has come up awesome.”

Waiting Without Sacrificing Yield

With roughly 40 percent of his crop planted, Hula is now watching the skies and waiting for moisture before continuing.

“So the portion that you’re waiting on moisture to be able to plant at this point, you don’t feel like you’re sacrificing yield by waiting. You feel like you’re protecting yield,” we asked Hula.

“Oftentimes growers think, well, it’s too wet to plant or it’s been too cold. So they’re the things that you want to wait for. Well, we still, because we’re not late yet, we still want to make sure we get uniform emergence. That’s the key, that’s the first box every grower needs to be paying attention to,” Hula says.

He says with sporadic pockets of moisture within the dry soils, he says conditions are conducive for poor or uneven emergency when planting into drought conditions, and it’s a risk he’s not willing to take.

Hula’s World Corn Yield Record

That focus on emergence has paid off. Hula holds the world record for corn yield, producing more than 623 bu. per acre , a benchmark that underscores his disciplined approach. He says the year he grew that new record yield was in 2023, and it was a crop that wasn’t planted early.

“That was towards the end of May. I mean end of April, first part of May, but it seems like our highest yield stuff comes when we plant later,” Hula says. “And that is again, we’re checking that box of the crop coming up uniformly. And that’s the one thing I don’t know that growers really understand the importance of that. And once they do it and see it, they’ll say, you know, it might have been worth holding off for one week.”

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A Seed Legacy That Dates Back a Century

The hybrid behind that record yield — Pioneer P14830VYHR — carries a legacy that stretches back a century.

“One of the wonderful stories of Pioneer is actually the introduction of Raymond Baker,” says Dean Podlich, who leads R&D digital solutions at Corteva Agriscience, during Pioneer’s 100th anniversary celebration last week. “Raymond Baker was a college student. In 1926, he met Henry Wallace at an event at Iowa State. He was very interested in hybrid corn, and he said, I would like to get involved with hybrid corn to Henry Wallace. Together, they actually put an entry into the Iowa corn yield test, and they actually won that contest in 1927. This is actually a certificate from 1927. We actually have the ribbon.”

Podlich says that early success helped launch hybrid corn into mainstream agriculture.

“Raymond Baker actually quit college in 1928, he joined the company as a farm hand, and he would go on to lead the breeding organization for more than 40 years, especially after Henry Wallace went to Washington. And so there’s a huge amount of history that is the start of our research engine,” he says.

100 Years of Yield: 60 to 600 Bu. Per Acre

One of the inbreds behind modern hybrids, known as Baker’s Inbred or B164, still plays a role today.

“What’s fascinating is that David Hula had a world record with 623 bushels a couple of years ago. We can trace the family tree of the genetics behind that hybrid all the way back to Baker’s Inbred itself,” Podlich says.

Two kernels, 100 years apart: One yielded 60 bushels per acre in 1927; the other topped 623. They look nearly identical on the outside, but a century of genetic innovation separates them under the hood.

(Tyne Morgan)

To the eye, seeds from then and now look nearly identical. But the difference in performance tells a much larger story, from the seed yielding roughly 60 bushels per acre a century ago to more Hula’s record yield of more than 600 bu. per acre today.

“The thing that’s very striking as you look at these two sets of seeds is how similar they are. It’s really hard to see any difference, but under the hood these things are really, really different,” Podlich says. “You have 100 years of selection, 100 years of breeding, 100 years of improved agronomics, improved drought tolerance, and higher genetic potential. This one also has biotech traits in it that help increase yield, protect that yield from insects, and provide herbicide tolerance. So this is what’s so remarkable.”

Is 1,000 Bu. Per Acre Yield Next?

Even with record-setting yields already achieved, Hula believes the ceiling is still far off.

“My late granddad was the first one to break a hundred in the area. My dad, a couple hundred bushels, and we got three, four or five, and where we are now. And that has been a really steep incline. So I’m excited about where things are in the future. I have no clue what the yield potential is,” Hula says.

“Somebody was asking me what the yield potential is today. When you open up the bag, I would say it’s in excess of a thousand bushels. If that’s the case, we’re poor farmers. You know, here the country’s only averaging 180-some bushels, and if the potential is truly that, we’ve got a long way to go. But then can you imagine what price corn would be,” he says.

During Pioneer’s 100th anniversary last week, Sam Eathington, the Chief Technology Officer (CTO) for Pioneer, gave remarks to those in attendance. In his address, he not only looked at the past, but also gave a glimpse into the future. He says in 50 years when Pioneer is celebrating it’s 150th anniversary, he think it’s possible agriculture will have national average corn yield of 300 bu. per acre and record yields reaching 1,000 bu. per acre.

For Hula, he thinks that’s a very reasonable reality even less than 50 years from now.

“Within 50 years, yeah, I do think so. That’s almost doubling where we are. But think about where we have come. And then also think about the technology that’s coming about,” Hula says.

As advancements in seed technology continue and farmers gain deeper insight into soil health through biological tools, Hula says the future of yield remains wide open.

“But as they start figuring out how to allow the plant to be more efficient with what it can find in the soil, I’m excited about that,” he says. “And then the one key that nobody can duplicate is sunlight. As they start figuring out how to make plants more efficient with the sunlight that we have and the moisture, either lack or more, the sky’s the limit.”

Related Story: The Technology Poised to Revolutionize Corn Yields — Just as Biotech Did in the 1980s

Soybean Plots Put Biological Seed Treatments, In-Furrow Starter and Fungicides To The Test: What Really Pays?

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 21:22:08 GMT

The Farm Journal Test Plot season shifted into high gear this week as Ken Ferrie and his team push to get soybean plots in the ground ahead of the next round of rain.

“We planted until midnight last night to finish two plots, and we’ll finish two more today if the weather holds,” says Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

While planters are running full-tilt in parts of central and southern Illinois, Ferrie notes that northern Illinois is just finding its rhythm.

“Where we are today, farmers are just getting started again. If the rain forecast misses us, we’ll likely roll right through the weekend,” he says.

2026 Soybean Plots Take Shape

This week’s planting efforts focus on soybeans, with multiple test plots designed to tackle farmers’ questions regarding fertility, seed treatments and fungicide performance. Four key test plots being planted this week include:

Biologicals: A dedicated plot is focused on the performance of various biological seed treatments.
In-Furrow Starter: In a relatively uncommon setup for soybeans, the team is testing a special starter blend designed specifically for in-furrow placement.
Foliar Micronutrients: Ferrie and team will be applying micronutrients over the top of soybeans to evaluate the crop response and ROI.
Plant Architecture & Fungicide Efficiency: This plot compares non-branching varieties in narrow rows against branching “bush” beans. The goal is to measure how efficiently foliar products reach—and stay on—the target. “We want to see how much product hits the ground versus how much stays in the canopy,” Ferrie explains. “If I’m foliar feeding and it hits the ground, it’s a wasted investment. We’re tracking those efficiencies.”

Corn Is On Standby

While the soybean plots are ramping up, corn planting at the Farm Journal Test Plot sites remains largely on hold as the team waits for a better weather window.

Ferrie notes that while many farmers further south in the state are well underway with corn, his local fields south of Bloomington, Ill., have been slower to reach ideal conditions.

“We’ve given farmers the green light to plant corn in some areas of the state, but our specific ground is just now reaching the right moisture levels,” he says. “It has been a challenge to stay out of the wet spots, but we are ready to move as soon as the soil allows.”

Thank You to Our Plot Partners
The research underway this season in the Farm Journal Test Plots is made possible by: Case IH, Fendt, Great Plains Manufacturing, John Deere, Martin-Till, Pleasant View Ag, Precision Planting, Unverferth Manufacturing Company, Yetter Farm Equipment, B&M Crop Consulting and Crop-Tech Consulting.

Why Your ‘Worst’ Soybean Fields Should Be Planted First

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 16:31:23 GMT

When fields are ready to plant, soybean growers often head to their best ground first. Connor Sible is asking you to consider doing the opposite.

“If you want to maximize soybean yields across your entire farm — not just in one field — start by planting your lowest soil-testing fields first and save the highest soil-testing fields for last,” he advises.

That shift in focus is counter to what many farmers currently do, and it is at the heart of the planting strategy he recommends. The University of Illinois row-crop field researcher and assistant professor contends that it’s when and where you pull the planter into each field that can raise your overall farm average.

In practice, that means when an early planting window opens in April or the first of May and several soybean fields are dry enough for a green light, the first acres you plant should be the ones with lower soil test values — not the “good” fields on the soil test map.

“This gives the late-planted soybean the advantage it needs to put on more bushels relative to early planting,” Sible says. “Between the soil testing data and the planting date response data we have, it makes a lot of sense.”

Why Early And Late Soybeans Behave Differently

Sible says there is a decade-plus of field trials from the University of Illinois comparing planting dates, soil tests, and yield responses, verifying that this change in planting strategy makes sense. The full study, led by Marcos Loman and advised by Fred Below, summarizes their findings and is available here .

Part of Sible’s explanation is that early-planted soybeans in April tend to yield more overall, but these beans grow slowly at first in cool, often wet soils with lower solar radiation. Their nutrient uptake is long and gradual.

“Early soybean, while yielding higher, has slower growth and probably doesn’t need fertilizer” he says.

Because those plants grow and require nutrients slowly, the soil can usually keep up with nutrient demand, even in lower-testing fields. That’s why he says early planting is the best “boost” you can give to weaker ground.

Later-planted soybeans, going in during late May or even into June, are going into a different environment: warmer soils, longer days and more solar radiation.

“Late-planted soybean, while lower yielding and a lower total nutrient requirement, grow so fast that if we want to optimize the return on fertilizer investment, it’s probably going to pay back better on late-planted beans,” Sible says.

Fast-growing late-May soybeans in Illinois pull nutrients at a higher rate, and Sible’s data shows they respond more strongly to higher soil test levels and applied fertilizer. That’s why he wants the best-testing fields held back for the later planting window.

“Late-planted beans grow so fast, the soil (fertility) probably cannot keep up,” he explains. “The late-planted soybean benefits more from that high soil test environment.”

How Farmers Can Implement The ‘New’ Planting Strategy

Sible is quick to acknowledge that in the real world, farmers will start the planting process in whatever field is fit at the time.

“Obviously you’re going to plant the driest field first,” he says, noting that central and northern Illinois have had recent rainfall.

But once more than one field is ready, he contends farmers can start making more intentional choices.

His recommended process for soybean planting looks like this:

Sort fields by crop and soil test.
Start out by grouping soybean fields by soil test levels — lower-testing and higher-testing, especially for phosphorus and potassium, but considering overall fertility.
Identify likely early-plant candidates.
Look at drainage, residue and soil type to consider which soybean fields typically dry out first. Within that group, mark the lower-testing fields.
Use early planting on “weaker” fields.
When an early planting window opens and several soybean fields are fit, move the planter to the lower soil-testing soybean fields first — those that usually don’t win the “yield contest” on your farm.
Reserve high-testing fields for later.
If weather or logistics push some soybean acres into late May or early June, prioritize the higher soil-testing fields for those later planting dates, where their strong fertility levels can support rapid growth.
Align fertilizer decisions with timing.
On early-planted soybeans, especially in lower soil-testing fields, be conservative with extra fertilizer unless there is a clear nutrient deficiency. On late-planted soybeans in high-testing fields, consider that any fertilizer investment is more likely to deliver ROI.

“If we line up planting date, soil test and fertilizer strategy, we can do a better job of maximizing soybean yield across the farm,” Sible says.

From Field-by-Field To A Higher Farm Average

Sible frames his planting strategy for soybeans as a mindset change. Instead of asking, “How do I make my best field even better?” he wants farmers to ask, “How do I pull my whole average up?”

“The principle is pretty simple,” he says. “Early planting is a powerful yield tool — use it where the soil is weakest. High soil fertility is a powerful growth tool; use it where beans are going in late and growing fast.”

Farmers won’t always see the highest absolute yield on those late-planted, high-testing fields, he acknowledges. Weather and your calendar date still matter. But he believes the relative performance and return on fertilizer can improve when planting order and soil tests work together.

For growers struggling to manage tight margins, it’s a strategy that costs nothing to try except a reshuffled planting list.

“Hopefully you can take these concepts back and take them to your acres,” Sible says. “It’s about getting the most from the whole farm, not just one field.”

Sible laid out his planting recommendations for soybeans during the 2026 Crop Management Conference at the University of Illinois.

How to Dial In Downpressure and Closing Systems for Perfect Stands

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 21:00:35 GMT

Among the recent strides in planter technology, adjustable downpressure is a game-changer, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. It, along with today’s sophisticated furrow-closing systems, can set you up for picket-fence stands and photocopied plants, the foundation of ear count and yield.

Here are some tips to help you dial in the ideal settings for your field’s specific soils and conditions.

May The Force Be With You

“Placing seed at uniform depth requires sufficient downforce on the row units to firm soil with the depth wheels, so the seed trench walls stand up and seed can be placed at the bottom,” Ferrie says. “There should be enough downforce to keep units in contact with the ground 97% of the time.

“Insufficient downforce causes uneven depth of planting, which leads to uneven emergence, or dry soil sloughing off the top of the trench onto the seed,” Ferrie continues. “Too much downforce leads to sidewall smearing, which causes the furrow to crack open afterward. In tilled fields that get too mellow, you may need to apply upward pressure because the row unit full of seed is too heavy, causing sidewall smearing issues.”

Hydraulic downpressure control allows downforce to change in a millisecond, by row and by foot of travel. “That’s not too important in conventionally tilled soil where the field cultivator passes 4” deep in mellow conditions,” Ferrie continues. “But it’s very important in no-till or strip-till because soil firmness changes quickly because of soil type, whether you’re in the center or the edge of a strip, wheel tracks and other factors.”

To set downpressure initially, stop the planter with the units in the ground, then see if you can turn both depth wheels on a few row units.

“If you can only turn one of them with the planter in the ground, back off the downforce until you can turn both wheels. At that point, you are not holding planting depth. Add small increments of downforce until it’s difficult to make at least one of the wheels turn. Continue to check depth wheel setting in all soil types or changing conditions,” Ferrie says.

Continue to check behind the planter as soils and conditions change.

“If you find a seam indicating sidewalls are not being crushed, back off the downforce and see if it goes away,” Ferrie advises.

Precision Planting hydraulic downforce on a Case IH planter responds in milliseconds to maintain accurate seed depth in no-till and strip-till conditions.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Inc.)

Close the Deal

It’s necessary for your planter’s closing system to do three things:

Close the furrow from the bottom up, leaving the moist soil at the bottom and the drier soil at the top.
Crush the sidewall. “If you fail to crush the sidewall, it will result in a seam that will open up later,” Ferrie says.
Firm soil over the seed, so moisture can’t escape. “Moisture is needed for germination and for development of the first and second sets of crown roots,” Ferrie says. “If it rains a day or two after planting, all will be well. Rain will settle the trench and allow the seed to germinate uniformly. But if you get 30 mph or 40 mph wind and 70˚F to 80˚F temperatures, you can run out of water at planting depth in a few hours. If it doesn’t rain for three weeks, furrows that weren’t firmed will be too dry to form crown roots and you’ll have floppy corn.”

The Best System For You

There are many types of closing wheels, designed to close furrows from the bottom up, crush sidewalls and/or firm soil over the seed.

“Rubber-tire closing wheels’ main function is to firm soil,” Ferrie says. “Cast-iron wheels are designed to close the furrow from the bottom up and firm soil. Spoked wheels’ main function is to crush the sidewall.”

Spoked wheels with swept-back tines are good for sidewall crushing and more soil firming. Twisted tines provide sidewall crushing and bottom-up closing.

“Some closing systems are two-stage,” Ferrie explains. ”They have staggered closing disks or spoked wheels designed to close from the bottom up and crush the sidewall, plus a firming wheel. This has been Case IH’s system from the beginning. There are versions from other companies.

“Two-stage systems provide flexibility if you operate across multiple farming systems, such as no-till, strip-till and conventional tillage. They provide more firming in conventional tillage and more sidewall crushing in no-till.

“Today’s technology lets you adjust your planter to handle conventional, strip-till, no-till and cover crop conditions from the tractor cab,” Ferrie summarizes. “Planter setup is more complicated; but the improved ROI from multiple systems that fit each soil type make it worthwhile.”

No matter how much technology you have inside your cab or planter, Ferrie concludes, “It is still crucial for operators to ground-truth. Dig cross sections of the row, checking depth, sidewall smearing and furrow firming. Thanks to technology, you don’t have to spend as much time on your knees as your dad and grandpa did, but you still need to check each of your fields multiple times.”

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Crop-Tech Consulting Inc.

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Crop-Tech Consulting Inc.

Adjust Downforce to Fit Soil Conditions

A Farm Journal study in tilled and no-till conditions illustrated the varying amount of downforce required to keep depth wheels in contact with the surface, firming the soil so trench walls would stand up and seed could be placed at the bottom. In both situations, units exceeded the required 97% ground contact (top photo). In no-till, the average downpressure requirement was 130 lb./ft., compared to 63 lb./ft. in tilled soil.

“Hydraulic downpressure control is especially beneficial in no-till and strip-till because soil firmness changes quickly based on soil type, whether you’re in the center or the edge of a strip, wheel tracks and other factors,” says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “But it’s also valuable in tilled soil, where you sometimes need to apply negative downforce (i.e., upward force), to take some of the weight off the planter units.”

(Crop-Tech Consulting Inc.)

If Your Seedbed Dries Out

“If a seedbed gets dry down to planting depth, it’s almost impossible to get a trench to stand up long enough to get seed to the bottom of the furrow and close it,” says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Dry surface soil will fall into the furrow before the closing system can operate.

“While this is a seedbed problem, not a planter issue, you can help the situation by changing your planter setup. Lower your row cleaner wheels to push the dry soil to the side and let you plant into moisture. This carries some risk: Your plants will be down in a little valley, so if you get a hard rain before or during emergence, the seed or seedling will be covered when rain washes the soil you pushed aside back into or on top of the row. But the only other option is to delay planting until it rains.”

Illinois Farmers Sidelined by Rain and Storms, as Southern Farmers Plant at Record Rates

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 13:27:18 GMT

While many Southern farmers are shattering speed records for the 2026 planting season, planters are sidelined for many farmers in the Midwest who are facing wet conditions. For the father-and-son duo of Dave and Chris Harrell, the 2026 season is off to a slow start. However, the corn and soybean farmers in Hancock County think the slight setback could be a setup for a successful season later.

Chris and Dave Harrell test the planter in Carthage, Ill.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

“[There’s] little to nothing going on at all this week,” Chris Harrell said April 17.

“I know we’ve had roughly five-and-a-half inches in the last in the last two weeks,” he adds. The Harrells received 2 more inches of rain and storms last weekend.

The nation’s corn crop is currently 11% planted, sitting 2 points ahead of the five-year average. Much of that momentum is coming from Illinois and Indiana, which both had a big week in the field. Illinois is now 13% planted, and Indiana follows closely at 14%. However, the western Corn Belt is seeing a different pace. Iowa is off to a slow start, with just 2% of its corn crop in the ground as of this week.

Soybean planting is moving even faster relative to historical norms. Nationally, soybean planting is 7 points ahead of the five-year average at 12% of the soybean crop planted.

Harrell says farmers south of his family’s farm in Carthage, Ill., are further along planting. The Harrells planted one field of beans March 30 before rain paused their efforts. With 40 years of experience under his belt, Dave Harrell thinks the rain won’t set them back too far and that it will helpful in the weeks to come.

“We’ve got ample time,“ Dave says. “You know, it’s still middle of April, so we’ll be fine.”

Shown is the Harrells’ bean field as of April 17, 2026.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Navigating the Bottom Line: Diesel and Inputs

While the rain may eventually prove to be a blessing in disguise for yields, input costs, specifically fuel, are weighing heavily on the books. According to AAA, the average diesel price in Illinois this week is approximately $1.80 higher than it was this time last year.

“The diesel prices, I think, is No. 1 top of mind subject right now,“ Chris explains. “I mean, the price of corn’s gone up with it, but I think a lot of farmers would say it’s not gone up enough to offset some of it.”

To combat these rising costs, Dave is utilizing strip-till practices. He also relies on early contracts to lock in fuel prices.

“We lucked out and had some contracted to kind of cover our spring needs, so we’ll be OK through the spring,” he says.

(AAA)

Finding Opportunity in Non-GMO Premiums

In addition to conventional corn and soybeans, the Harrells also plant non-GMO corn from Wyffels. While the process requires more management, Dave said the financial upside makes it a win-win situation.

“It’s a little extra work on segregation and storage and clean out,” Chris says. “You just kind of have to have a little checklist and get through it all, but the premiums are nice, especially in a tougher environment like this.”

Four generations of the Harrell family stand for a photo. Dave’s dad still helps out on the farm today at 95 years old.

(Chris Harrell)

Looking Ahead

As the fields in Carthage begin to dry out, a new challenge has emerged: High winds are currently preventing spraying operations. However, the Harrells are rolling with the punches, expecting farmers in their area to potentially move back into full-scale fieldwork by Wednesday.

Chris Harrell works on the planter while waiting for fields to dry out.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

This barn on the Harrells’ farm was built in the early 1900s. It’s been through storms and been given updates. Today, it serves as a shop for the family.

(Mike Byers)

Historic Gains in the Corn Belt South

According to latest USDA reports, corn planting in Kentucky and Tennessee is moving at its fastest rate since 2012. The numbers tell a story of an efficient window:

Tennessee — Farmers have 64% of the corn crop in the ground, which is a massive 40-point jump ahead of the five-year average and 42 points ahead of last year.
Kentucky — Growers are nearly halfway finished, sitting roughly 30 points ahead of the normal pace.

Soybeans See Record-Setting Pace

The speed isn’t limited to corn. Soybean planting is also rewriting the record books in the Deep South:

Louisiana — Leading the pack at 58% planted, which is 26 points ahead of average and the fastest pace in USDA history.
Mississippi — Currently at 55% planted, running 32 points ahead of the usual pace, another record.
Tennessee — Soybean planting has hit the 50% mark, 41 points ahead of the historical average.

The ‘Dry’ Reality: Farmers Forced to Wait

While the dry weather allowed for uninterrupted field time early on, the lack of moisture is now a major hurdle. David Hula says for growers in the Southeast, the dust has become too much.

“We’ve been dry all season so far, and we actually stopped planting because we’ve been so dry,” Hula says. “Can’t just get the planter in the ground, but it’s the first top, the first planting window. We waited till things warmed up, you know; I’m very diligent and patient about that, and all that corn has come up awesome.”

He says they stopped planting last Thursday, and there’s no measurable rain in the forecast.

“I don’t know when we’re gonna get started back,” Hula says.

Pocket of Extreme Drought

The topsoil moisture maps highlight a stark reality for the region. In a corridor stretching from Virginia to Georgia, topsoil rated “short to very short” in ranges from 83% to a staggering 97%. It has become one of the driest pockets in the country, creating a sharp contrast to the Midwest.

Grains Rally Led by Three Year Highs in Bean Oil: Cattle Fall

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 21:43:21 GMT

Grain and hog markets ended higher on Tuesday with cattle lower.

Soybeans and Soybean Oil Lead Rally
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday.

Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says bean oil hit a three-year high and was following crude oil but is still pricing in the positive RVO news.

“That’s been feeding it for quite some time. And then tied along with today’s obvious crude oil move higher, it looks like Trump’s ceasefire probably won’t get extended. So a little bit of that got traded today on the soybean oil side, I would argue,” he says.

Can Soybeans Extend the Rally?
He says new crop November soybeans also had a bit of a chart breakout.

“We were building in a wedge pattern lately and we kind of broke and slingshotted out of that thing today. And I’ve been waiting for that a little while just to see if it was going to be an up or down move. And it looks like that was a pretty good up move there,” he says.

July soybeans ran into chart resistance though around the $11.91 area and will need some bullish news to continue to move higher.

But can November soybeans extend gains?

“The November contract was only $0.04 from a contract high that we’ve had recently at $11.74 today. So right back to those highs. So a little bit of selling pressure there around that level, along with the July hitting up against that key resistance point, Michelle. So we’ll see if it has some
trouble above these levels or not. Or if crude oil continues to move, we keep getting something that can feed this soybean contract. But overall, I never saw anything super substantial for moving soybeans specifically higher today he adds.

Corn Follows Soybeans or Wheat?
Corn futures were higher initially following soybeans and bean oil but in past sessions has seen spillover from higher wheat.

Minor says, “I feel like corn has been playing follow the leader, and it’s been switching back and forth between wheat, specifically with some of their big up days, and then obviously with soybeans being up 10 most of the day today, it wanted to be up a couple cents as well. So it’s tried following those along on the days wheat’s been up and that correlates somewhat when we’ve had crude oil up or our outside market fundamentals moving a little bit.”

He says the spreads have also been rallying.

“And it could just be because of some funds coming in. It could be crude oil moving up. It could be some inflation hedging. It could be a little bit about the old crop balance sheet, just trying to buy a few bushels here up front during planting,” he explains.

Corn Hits Resistance
July corn also closed up into resistance at the $4.62 level and needs an additional bullish catalyst to break higher.

“Some of the cash fundamentals on corn and soybeans in these front months has been pretty important. We’ve been able to rally these spreads, tighten them up, narrow them up a little bit on old crop. And I think that’s just lack of movement across the countryside. I think once we get through planting, we’ll have some more bear pressure on those old crop months specifically.”

He says in the Western Corn Belt, basis has been improving on soybeans as yields were fairly normal.

Planting Ahead of Normal
Planting nationally was 7% ahead of normal on soybeans and 2% ahead of normal on corn planting but the market faded it in part because Iowa is lagging on both corn and soybean planting with wet conditions.

Minor says, “You go with that eastern part of the state in Iowa, kind of Missouri for sure. It looks like the forecast is still super wet. They’ve been wet. They’ve had no real look at the fields at all. Probably eastern Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, that whole stretch. Even eastern Minnesota is pretty wet yet. So when I look at those areas, very, very far behind. But it’s early. We’re sitting at the 21st of April still. My rule of thumb normally is once we get past that WASDE report in May, then we get a pretty good look at it.”

So that will be a key time frame because if the wet forecast continues through May 10 and the 6-10 days beyond that the funds will start to care.

China Meeting
That time frame also coincides with the scheduled meeting between President Xi and Trump on the 14th and 15th.

“So there’s going to be a lot going on right in that time frame in that second or third week of May that could move the market,” he adds.

Wheat Ratings Drop
Wheat futures saw some profit taking early in the day session but came back on weather and still digesting the crop ratings which were down
4% nationally to 30% good to excellent.

The reason it didn’t provide more of a push to the market is because it was largely traded on Monday but those conditions aren’t likely to improve with frost that has now damaged the crop.

“It’s become quite volatile again off multi-year lows, which made sense with the poor crop conditions down South. It’s still struggling. I mean, we’ve got wheat heading out in places a couple weeks early for what it probably should be. So not a great sign. I still think a little bit of rain could help that Southern Plains area for sure. But some spots are just going to be too late as well,” he adds.

Can Wheat Rally Further?
The wheat market has still not taken out the recent highs in SRW or HRW classes and will need a catalyst to get above those levels.

He says the wheat market is also heavily dependent on inflation and hedge funds coming in to buy and how the crop finishes in the Southern Plains.

“I still think it’s a lot of outside market fundamentals. The wheat market can get inflation hedging bought up with the crude oil market, for example. And then just talking about things like today’s U.S. dollar move, things like that will be important as well. But mainly just the weather market that we’ll have in the Southern U.S. going forward,” he explains.

Cattle Market Falls Further
Cattle futures saw early strength erode on technical selling and fund long liquidation.

Minor says this is a healthy correction off of contract and record highs but it has been triggered by fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle.

“I think, because the meeting going on on Friday in Arizona with Brooke Rollins going to visit the border. So that leaves a lot of questions up in the air on what could happen there. And I think that’s kind of at the heart of it. We’ve had a really good rally again, so having some fun liquidation totally makes sense. Little pullback. We tried to fight back higher today, and I thought we were fighting at a pretty good close, and then it kind of had a poor close by the end of it here, technically. So looking at that 20-day just under us as support for a lot of these months.”

However, he isn’t concerned yet because of the strong fundamentals.

“Kill’s been super low lately. Packers have been trying to get margins back to a comfortable level, trying to kill few cattle as they can, get meat propped up pretty well. And it seems to be responding. It’s always worrisome when they pull kill way back and then you don’t see cutout respond. But we’ve seen choice and selects respond a little higher here recently. So I thought that was a good sign, especially going into the right time of the year as well seasonally. We should be seeing that bump anyways,” he says.

What if Support is Breached?
However, if the futures take out 20-day moving average support, he thinks how much lower will you fall?

“Well, we’ve gone up for about five, six straight years now. So we can do some pretty hard technical damage on this chart. This cattle market can take some really, really big swings, I think, off of it if it wanted to or got a good reason.”

t’s just seasonally, we start to talk about it. It’s going to be grilling season, and we all know we like steaks at the beginning of the year, hot dogs at the end. So hopefully, choice response pretty quick here after about the 1st of May. So if we do have some hard down days, I’m hoping that it won’t last much

Hogs Up a Second Day
Lean hog futures were up for a second day on short covering after a gap higher opening in the June contract.

Is this just a dead cat bounce or are there fundamentals to support the move?

Minor says, “Cut out, grinded its way higher to just over $100 again, kind of led by hams and bellies, but nothing sporadic, I thought, to really stand out to me across the board for the most part. So it seems like cash had a solid week of about a buck higher or so, so far, but there’s still
plenty of hogs around, Michelle, I think. When I look at this hog market, fundamentally, we got to be starting to get into some lower hog numbers here soon. This week and next week, still sitting at 2.4 to like 2.8 million number for the kill. And hopefully about the May 1st timeframe, we start to get a little bit lower numbers, prop that cut up a little bit higher. We’ve got the June back in a line with fundamentals, probably up front. We’ve taken most of the premium out, but we’re still a little bit optimistic, even going forward out in those future months, especially.”

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat up on Weather, Planting, China News and Fertilizer?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:13:41 GMT

Grains are mostly higher early Tuesday, with cattle and hogs also recovering.

Soybeans Lead Gains Pulling up Corn
Soybeans are seeing early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn.

Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says, “Obviously, that’s going to support the bean complex overall. And I think it’s supporting corn too.”

Market Fades Planting Progress
Planting progress was at 11% nationally on corn which was 2% ahead of normal and for soybeans 12% of the crop has also been planted which is 7 points ahead of average.

Mason says that is because while some areas of the corn belt are ahead of normal like the Southeast, Iowa is well behind on corn seeding at 2% against a normal of 8%.

“There are some weather challenges throughout the country that are you know keeping progress at bay,” she remarks.

Mason is in Southwestern Indiana where it was dry and so some producers may be done planting this week as they push to get the crop in ahead of another round of rain.

“If you look at Kentucky, they’re planning progress is well ahead. As you go farther South, it’s the same situation, you know, that it’s drier down there and just a lot done.”

She also thinks there will be some replanting and in fact there is a lot of replant going on in Southern Indiana right now.

“They just kind of went in, I think, at the wrong time and with some heavy rains some of the crop didn’t come up well either.”

She says they escaped the cold temperatures over the weekend and the frost that nipped some areas of the corn and wheat belt.

Corn and Soybeans Into Recent Highs
Corn and soybeans are up to recent highs and running into chart resistance but can the market get through those levels?

Mason says, “Old crop corn in particular. It just seems like a bit of a laggard. It needs support from something, whether it be wheat or soybeans. I will say that Dec corn, though, is also kind pausing and we really need to get above that 14, 20 day moving average on the December contract. We’ve got strong support at the 10 day, it seems. And I don’t think the bottom is going to fall out of corn. It feels like maybe we’re kind of just kind of hanging sideways until we get another catalyst.”

Soybeans are also up into chart resistance but still trading sideways.

She says that market is caught between higher bean oil and lower meal on any given day with the back and forth on the war and crude oil which influences bean oil prices.

Old crop soybeans are still waiting for the outcome of the China meeting mid-May.

“The meeting with Xi Jinping in May is going to be, everyone’s got that in laser focus. And, you know, we had news this morning from, well, the South China Morning Post had released a news or headline stating that the U.S. had intercepted a Chinese ship that had a gift to Iran. Now, we don’t know what that gift is, but it probably is not gonna favor the U.S. So, hopefully that doesn’t crimp that meeting that’s that’s scheduled,” she shares.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking Then Rebounds on Low Crop Ratings
Wheat was lower early on profit taking after running into chart resistance at last week’s highs but also trading war headlines and the higher dollar and rains chances in the extended forecast.

However, winter wheat crop conditions were down 4% and the good to excellent rating is at 30% nationally so she believes that market will be well supported on breaks.

Fertilizer Price Concerns
Mason says the concerns regarding fertilizer prices are also growing as margins and working capital is tight, plus even supply is a problem the longer the war lingers.

“I do believe that there were more producers than what we would like to think that didn’t have their nitrogen supplies locked in before the Middle East situation transpired and so I do think that that’s probably pushing some soybean acres and I am even seeing some bean on bean acres in Southern Indiana and into Illinois,” she explains.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says with the war lingering there are many countries that are stockpiling fertilizers or stockpiling commodities in general, so she thinks supplies will remain tight.

“Luckily we produce a lot of anhydrous ammonia domestically but urea we import a lot of urea about 30% from Russia and we get about a fifth of our UAN from Russia. So we really have to walk a tightrope with them as we move forward,” she adds.

Sulfer Supplies are Also a Concern
Mason says sulfur supplies are also a concern as it is a byproduct of natural gas processing and oil refining.

“Obviously there are a lot of refiners and natural gas processing plants that are offline given this situation in the Middle East and 90% of the world’s supplies are a product of that. We were actually tight on sulfur supplies in 2025 just because sulfur is used as a battery material. So,
the demand was there and there was, there were no new supplies coming online.”

However, she says supplies are even tighter now.

“That’s really going to throw a wrench into phosphates, right? Your DAP, your MAP, production. and so it does concern me,” she adds.

Plus there are exports bans on in Russia and Turkey and China has a ban on sulfuric acid with India considering a ban.

“So you’ve got all of these countries that are saying, whoa, hold the phone. Let’s pause and keep our supplies in-house before we send them out to the world and put ourselves in a real pickle.”

Cattle Try to Recover After Monday Selloff
Cattle futures are higher early Tuesday after a sell off to start the week.

The market has been spooked by the possibility of the border reopening to Mexican cattle as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will be in Arizona on Friday. Plus, the talk of another Justice Department investigation of the meat packing industry, while not new, was also a bearish factor.

Mason thinks the pullback is just a technical correction.

“My gut tells me that once you reach record highs, a pullback is healthy but there’s probably a segment of traders out there that are really concerned about maybe a partial reopening of the Mexico U.S. border but we’re not going to be flooded with feeders right away just because Mexico has been building their infrastructure,” she says.

Survey Says Farmers Cut Corn Acres Since the War Started

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:15:50 GMT

Surging input costs and questions about fertilizer prices and availability have some farmers reconsidering their planting intentions.

A private survey conducted by grain merchandiser Farmer’s Keeper shows a sizable cut in corn acres since USDA’s March Prospective Planting report . Remember, the USDA survey was fielded in early March before the full impact of the war in Iran was felt. Since then the fertilizer supply crunch and price spike might have forced some farmers to move away from corn last minute.

Farmer’s Keeper asked nearly 4,000 of its customers in 27 states the following question: “Since fertilizer prices have risen, how have your corn acres changed?”

The results show:

No Change - 76%
Decrease - 20.3%
Increase - 3.7%

(Farmer’s Keeper )

“We just saw in March a surprisingly high to many of us corn acreage number from USDA and a relatively lower soybean number,” says Nick Tsiolis, CEO, Farmer’s Keeper. “What that tells us is potentially we might start to see those numbers converge with corn acres coming down and soybean acres coming up.”

Acreage Shifts Tied to Fertilizer Prices and Supplies

Tsiolis says the fertilizer supply crunch is one factor causing last-minute shifts.

“What we’re hearing from the co-ops is many farmers are not even going to be able to get the fertilizer they want,” he explains. “Even if they wanted to increase their corn acres, they wouldn’t be able to do that.”

The near-record high prices, especially for urea, are also playing a role in the decision, according to Tsiolis.

“When you get a price spike in fertilizer, with already a challenged ag economy out there, it’s going to lead the farmer to say, ‘Man, I’m spending several hundred dollars an acre more to put in this corn crop for relatively less profitability when I could put in some bean acres and almost know that at least at today’s current prices, I’m going to break even or a little bit better.’”

A fertilizer study conducted by the American Farm Bureau Federation shows 67% of Midwest farmers pre-booked fertilizer. Where are the shifts likely to come from?

“I think if we’re going to see any kind of big movement from the March intentions for corn and soybeans, it’s probably going to come from the fringe area,” says Brian Grete, CommStock Investments. “I will include [that area] up into the Plains and the northern Plains and down through the South and Southeast. Those are the areas where we could see the biggest shift.”

There probably won’t be many acreage changes in the central Corn Belt, he says, so the crops most at risk are peanuts, cotton and others specific to the South.

The 20-Bushel Wake-Up Call One Farmer Is Using To Boost Soybean Yields

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:42:15 GMT

For years, Stephen Butz watched his corn yields climb while his soybeans stalled. The numbers didn’t lie: corn was steadily improving, while soybeans were “average at best,” he recalls, running hot and cold from year to year with no clear pattern.

“Our soybeans were just plateauing,” says Butz, who farms near Kankakee, Ill.

The turning point for Butz came several years ago on a 120-acre field split between two soybean varieties — 80 acres on the north side and 40 acres on the south. Everything matched: planting date, field conditions, management. The only difference was the variety planted.

At harvest, the 40-acre section of the field was 18 to 19 bushels per acre better.

A talk with Butz’s seedsman revealed the answer: the higher-yielding soybeans carried the Peking source of resistance to soybean cyst nematode (SCN). That single difference explained nearly 20-bushels-per-acre the farm had been losing to SCN for years.

“Honestly, it was just one of those deals where our seed guy had said, ‘Hey, this is a good number.’ So we’d planted the variety kind of naively,” Butz says. “But lo and behold, it was a huge benefit for us and showed us a problem we had on this farm and other farms, too.”

With the initial finding of SCN, Butz started soil testing to identify how significant the problem was across his farm. Surprisingly, soil tests revealed SCN populations ranging from the low hundreds to as high as 5,000 per sample.

“We’ve got a good amount of farms in that 3,000 to 5,000 count, which is an extremely high amount that I need to address,” says Butz, who samples fields ahead of planting.

Spring 2026: Going 100% Peking

After splitting acres for several years between non-GMO and Enlist soybeans, Butz made a decisive shift to the latter for 2026 as the non-GMO soybeans do not carry resistance to SCN.

“This spring, we are going with 100% Peking,” he says

For Butz, the move is less about chasing bonus bushels of soybeans and more about stopping the hidden losses SCN has been causing. He’s certain he’s left a lot of yield potential on the table in previous seasons.

“We’re not so much adding bushels (with the Peking) as we expect to relieve the stress that’s been taking bushels away,” he says.

Going all-Peking this season is only part of his management plan. The other piece is rotating more between corn and soybeans and, over time, between different SCN technologies, including Peking and PI 88788.

Butz’s cropping pattern follows a rough structure of thirds in any given year: about a third of his total acres in corn or soybeans and another third in continuous corn. That same structure drives his soil sampling schedule and will, in the future, he says, guide how he rotates SCN resistance traits across the landscape.

He also hopes to bring new technology into the mix, including the new SCN solution on the way from BASF Agricultural Solutions, called Nemasphere. It is the first-ever biotech trait designed specifically to address SCN.

Unlike traditional native resistance found in PI 88788 and Peking, Nemasphere is based on a transgenic trait — a Cry14 protein engineered directly into the soybean — explains Hugo Borsari, BASF vice president of business management for seeds in North America.

Beyond Yield: Logistics And Longevity

For Butz, the case for more soybeans, and especially better-protected soybeans, isn’t just agronomic. It’s logistical and financial.
Soybeans help spread out workload during planting and harvest, he explains, easing the strain of managing continuous corn acres. They also inject rotation into fields that might otherwise lean too heavily to continuous corn.

“Years of continuous corn in some spots is fine, but rotation is obviously better,” he said during a recent panel discussion hosted by BASF.

Like he found out by accident, Butz says he believes many other growers might be losing significant yield to SCN without realizing it.

“You might live in an area that you raise 75-bushel beans all the time, or 80-bushel beans, and that’s amazing. But what if the potential is 90 or 100 bushels?“ Butz asks. “There’s plenty of people out there that might be losing 10, 15 bushels off the top, and that adds up fast. You’re freaking losing $100 an acre pretty quick that would help a lot with your bottom line.”

Cut Through The Biological Noise To Find Real ROI

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 21:03:28 GMT

Biologicals are booming across the agricultural landscape, propelled by a surge of new products and high-octane promises. Yet, when the invoice arrives, farmers are often left with this nagging question: Did I actually need that?

University of Illinois field researcher and assistant professor Connor Sible is on a mission to provide clarity. Drawing on a decade-plus of in-field study in corn and soybean systems, Sible offers a farmer-first filter to cut through the marketing noise. His research is helping growers determine where these tools offer a reliable return on investment — and where they fall flat.

“Start with your agronomy, then decide if a biological adds value on top,” he advises. “They’re not a shortcut around good fundamentals.”

One of the key reasons why farmers struggle to cut through the noise and identify which biological products will work for them results from the shear number of biological products in the marketplace. Another challenge is what this class of products is called. Academia and regulators use the term biostimulants. Ag media, companies and most farmers increasingly use the broader term biologicals.

The 2025 crop biostimulant list was capped at 450 companies. Sible notes that most companies offer multiple products, so if the chart were redrawn by product labels instead of company logos, it would “get out of control pretty quickly.” In his own review of just row-crop (corn, wheat, soy) products, he examined 155 products and found 139 unique microbial species used as active ingredients.

(Connor Sible Presentation)

The Baseline: Deliver on Fundamentals

For all the excitement surrounding biologicals, Sible encourages farmers to focus on unglamorous agronomic foundations first. He describes biologicals as next-step inputs; they can sharpen a high-performing cropping system, but they will not rescue one built on outdated practices.

“I do not know of a biostimulant or biological today that will fix your pH,” Sible says. “If you’ve got a soil pH issue, fix that first. Same with drainage, and same with using the same hybrid you’ve used for six years just because it’s still available.”

The Logistics: Is it Dead or Alive?

Once the fundamentals are solid, Sible says a practical next step is to consider whether a product is living or non-living.

Beneficial microbes — such as nitrogen-fixers, phosphorus-solubilizers, residue degraders, and many seed-applied inoculants — are alive. Many biostimulants — including humic and fulvic acids, certain enzymes, and kelp- or marine-based formulations — are not.

That distinction isn’t just academic; it determines whether a product has any chance of working by the time it reaches your field.

“If you’re buying something living, you’re buying a responsibility,” Sible says. “You have to keep it alive from delivery to application.”

He urges farmers to evaluate their shop conditions: Can you provide temperature stability? Is the product sitting against an uninsulated exterior wall? If the logistics of babysitting a living organism do not fit your management style, Sible suggests using only non-living biostimulants.

Nutrient Efficiency: Boosting Nitrogen

Few biological categories have generated as much buzz as nitrogen fixers. Sible’s work suggests they can play a role — but not the one many farmers might first imagine.

For a typical corn crop, about half the nitrogen comes from applied fertilizer and about half from soil organic matter and mineralization.

Biological N fixers are best thought of as a third source of nitrogen, he says, helping to cover shortfalls when fertilizer is lost or tied up, or soil mineralization doesn’t keep pace with crop demand.

From his data on a 230-bushel corn crop, the key number is 7 pounds of nitrogen per acre per day. That’s how much the plant must take up every day for about three weeks at peak demand. At 300 bushels, that jumps to around 9 pounds per acre per day. One of the questions farmers need to ask their retailer on a nitrogen-fixing biological they’re considering is, how much will it help provide during the key periods of demand?

Corn requires significant amounts of nitrogen during key growth stages to deliver a 230-bushel corn crop. The demand makes it hugely challenging for a biological to deliver sufficient N as a standalone product.

(Connor Sible)

Sible makes two critical points:

Don’t cut N and expect a biological to fully replace it.
When growers drop early-season nitrogen in hopes that microbes will fill the gap, his team often sees corn respond by reducing kernel set. The yield ceiling falls before the biological has time to colonize and contribute.
Placement and mode of action matter.
Products marketed as N fixers don’t all work the same way. Some colonize roots externally, some live inside the plant as endophytes, and some may enhance N assimilation rather than truly fixing atmospheric N. That affects:
- Whether they’re best applied in-furrow, on-seed or foliar.
- What they can be tank-mixed with.
- When they’ll begin supplying nitrogen.

Farmers trialing N-fixing products this season should treat them as insurance or a supplement and not a license to slash N rates across the board, Sible advises.

Phosphorus-Solubilizing Microbes

Soils often hold a high volume of total phosphorus, but much of it is locked in forms plants cannot access. Certain microbes can free up this nutrient by secreting weak organic acids that chelate soil cations away from phosphate.

In field trials, the most consistent benefits occurred when microbes were supplied in-furrow or very near the roots and applied alongside phosphorus fertilizer. Using “difference methods” to track uptake, Sible reports that baseline efficiencies often sat between 4% and 7%. With a P-solubilizing product, that jumped to the 7% to 11% range in some environments.

“It’s still not great, but it nearly doubled our efficiency in some environments,” he says. However, he cautions that cutting fertilizer back significantly and expecting microbes to “mine” the difference is not a reliable strategy.

The Carbon Battle: Residue Management

Residue degradation is where Sible sees some of the strongest opportunities for biologicals, especially in high-yield or no-till systems.

Every 10 bushels of corn adds about 440 pounds of residue; over a decade, a yield gain of 25 bushels can mean an extra half-ton of residue per acre.

The challenge is the high carbon-to-sulfur ratio in corn stalks, which ties up nutrients. Sible’s research has found that biological degraders are inconsistent on their own but show significant synergy when paired with nitrogen and sulfur.

“If you’re going to use these, understand they’re fighting an uphill battle against carbon,” Sible says.

He also stresses application timing: “Spray on cloudy days or in the evening to take advantage of overnight dew. You have to set the product up to succeed.”

Carbon and Humic Products

When evaluating humic acids and molasses-type products (sugar), Sible notes a clear divide between crops. In soybeans, results have been largely inconsistent. In corn, however, in-furrow carbon and humic products produced small but consistent yield gains that held up under economic analysis.

Sible attributes this to crop physiology. Corn makes major yield decisions twice: during early vegetative stages (kernel potential) and at pollination (kernel retention). Supporting the plant during these specific windows has offered a measurable response.

Soybeans, by contrast, adjust yield daily from flowering through seed fill, making them a much harder target for a single application of a biostimulant.

Stress-Mitigating Products

Sible sees value in some stress-mitigating products — often kelp or marine extracts — that claim to help crops tolerate drought, heat or other abiotic stress. He notes these materials are often rich in metabolites that help plants survive extreme fluctuations in temperature, moisture and salinity.

When applied to crop leaves, these materials can trigger stress-defense pathways.But they only work if they’re applied before the stress hits.

“You have to be proactive, not reactive,” Sible says. “If the corn is already curled or the soybean leaves are flipped over, it’s too late for these products to do much.”

He tells farmers to watch their 7- to 10-day forecasts and time applications ahead of expected heat waves or dry spells, adding that these products are ineffective as rescue treatments.

From Products to Purpose

Across all categories of biological products, Sible’s advice remains the same: define your “why.” If a product doesn’t clearly fit a specific goal — such as improving N efficiency at peak uptake or accelerating residue breakdown — it may not be worth the investment.

“There are some really exciting tools out there,” Sible says. “But the value comes when you use them precisely, not when you expect them to fix everything.”

As farmers evaluate biological products, Sible notes there are about 10 frequently used types of “active ingredients” that are better-understood, likely credible and worth evaluating. They include:

Bacillus amyloliquefaciens
Bacillus subtilis
Bradyrhizobium spp. (classic soybean inoculant – “the original biological”)
Azospirillum spp.
Trichoderma spp.
Azotobacter spp.
Several other Bacillus and related species are in the top-10 list, as well.

Sible’s framing of these for farmers’ consideration:
If a new product contains one or more of these top 10 species, it “fits the larger narrative of this market.”
If it has something totally different, it might be:
— a random/unproven one-off, or
— truly novel and promising – but in that case he suggests being more cautious and asking more questions.

Corn Reigns King For Planting in Northwest Iowa

Wed, 15 Apr 2026 03:15:32 GMT

Plant 2026 is underway for farmers in Northwest Iowa, including Matt McCarthy who started planting this week.

USDA’s crop progress report showed Iowa farmers have just 1% of the corn planted compared to the 2% average.

According to USDA’s Prospective Plantings report farmers in Iowa intended to plant 450,000 less acres of corn this year and shift those over to soybeans.

Corn is King in Northwest Iowa

However, that may not be the case for McCarthy and others in Northwest Iowa where corn is king.

“Nope, I haven’t switched any acres,” McCarthy said. “I think we’re heavily corn acres in this county, and we have probably better corn farms than bean farms. So, the rotation guys will stay with their rotation. And I think some of the corn on corn, as long as there’s manure involved, we’ll stay corn on the corn.”

He’s not alone, McCarthy’s seed customers and other farmers in Northwest Iowa are also planting corn on corn.

Typically half of the area in his area are either continuous corn or planted corn on corn for two years, with soybeans rotated in the third year.

And he with the use of livestock manure he has not seen any yield drag.

“Some of my best yields or the best yields were continuous corn fields last year,” he said.

Livestock Drives Corn Production

McCarthy said corn’s reign is due to the concentration of cattle and hog production in northwest Iowa.

He believes livestock manure aids in soil fertility and allows them to grow continuous corn, which is in demand as a feed source.

The availability of manure helps cut fertilizer costs which have increased from last fall due to war in Iran.

McCarthy said his bill for 32% is up from $250 to $275 a ton from last fall. “That’s the highest I think I’ve ever paid,” he said.

However, the inability to source fertilizer is not a concern as most farmers in the area already applied anhydrous ammonia and spread manure last fall.

Disease and Weed Control

Disease isn’t deterring McCarthy or other farmers from planting corn either, even though Southern Rust was heavy in spots in 2025.

He said growers understand this disease better than past years and the timing of fungicides leaving them more confident about planting corn again this year. “If you’re a guy that does corn on corn, I think you’ll go back to the corn,” McCarthy said.

However, he ramped up his weed control program due to resistance issues like water hemp.

Planting Progress Slightly Behind

Planting progress is behind last spring due to heavy rains and cold soils but McCarthy historically starts planting right after the insurance date, so he’s not concerned.

“No, I think that if we look at historically, we’re not usually planting till the 20th of April. So I think we’re fine, just everyone’s probably antsy to get out there. I think the early corn plantings do have an advantage. So, I think everybody wants to get going.”

Still, he’s thankful for the moisture since it was a fairly open winter.

“We were generally pretty dry this winter.,” he said, “When we warmed up in February into March, we were dry, and now that we just got two inches, we’re in pretty good shape to get the crop started.”

And a good start to the crop is a big key to high yields, which leaves McCarthy optimistic about the season.

Treat Soil Moisture Like A Checkbook To Sharpen Irrigation Decisions

Tue, 14 Apr 2026 21:06:30 GMT

As irrigation costs climb and weather grows more erratic, farmers are under pressure to make every inch of water count. One of the simplest, most practical tools they can use this season won’t require new hardware on the pivot — just a different way of thinking about soil moisture.

North Dakota State University associate professor and irrigation engineer Dean Steele encourages farmers to manage soil water like their checkbook: track deposits and withdrawals, and don’t let the account get overdrawn. That mindset, he says, is the foundation of better irrigation timing and improved efficiency.

“The soil is our bank account. We’ve got withdrawals and deposits,” he notes. “Your deposits are the rain and irrigation. Your withdrawals are the crop water use and things like the deep percolation and maybe some runoff.”

The soil profile starts each growing season with a certain balance of water. Every day, evapotranspiration (ET) — the combined effect of evaporation from the soil and transpiration from the crop — pulls moisture out. Rain and irrigation add it back in.

Just as with a financial account, it’s not enough to know how much “money” moves in and out over a year. What also matters is when it moves — especially during critical periods like tasseling or grain fill, Steele says.

Why Seasonal Totals Can Mislead

Steele uses a favorite classroom trick question to show why irrigation timing is so important.

He asks students: If a crop needs 18 inches of ET over a season and the farm receives 12 inches of rain, how much irrigation is required?

The obvious answer is six inches. But that is incorrect.

“If all the rain of that 12 inches comes on May 1, and you get nothing the rest of the season, then you still need 18 inches,” Steele explains.

In that scenario, early-season rain may fill the soil profile, but if it’s not replenished as the crop draws water in July and August, the soil account will be overdrawn exactly when the plant is most sensitive to stress.

The lesson, Steele says, is that seasonal totals hide risk. Farmers need to track the running balance in the soil, not just the sum of rainfall and irrigation on a yearly chart.

Build A Simple Water-Balance Ledger

Steele says growers can implement a practical water-balance approach with tools many already have: a rain gauge, basic ET information and records of irrigation events, often available in their spreadsheet.

A basic checkbook-style water balance would include these four elements:

1. Starting balance: Estimate available water in the rooting zone at planting (for example, after pre-watering or spring recharge).

2. Daily withdrawals: Use ET estimates (from local weather networks, Extension tools or ET calculators) to subtract crop water use.

3. Daily deposits:
- Add effective rainfall (total rain minus runoff or obvious losses).
- Add irrigation applied (inches per pass or per revolution).

4. Running balance: Track how much water remains in the effective root zone relative to field capacity and a chosen depletion limit.

Steele compares ET and side losses to an unavoidable set of expenses — “groceries… housing and taxes” — that must be paid out of the account every day. If those outflows consistently exceed deposits, the crop will eventually experience stress long before the calendar suggests it should.

Adapting The Method To Different Climates

The same accounting framework applies whether you farm in the upper Midwest or the High Plains, but the numbers in the ledger will look very different.

In North Dakota, Steele notes, seasonal ET is relatively modest and summer rainfall sometimes helps “catch up,” meaning there can be more opportunities to pause or reduce irrigation when rainstorms arrive.

In the central and southern High Plains the withdrawals are much larger, according to Brian Arnall, a precision nutrient management Extension specialist at Oklahoma State University.

“Our max ETs can easily hit three‑quarters of an inch a day; our normal ET is half an inch,” Arnall says.

With 100-degree days, 30% humidity and rapidly growing corn, the soil account in the High Plains empties fast. That’s why, in many of those systems, pivots rarely shut off once they’re started, notes Arnall.

“By the end of our cropping season, we’ll probably be right at neutral, if not negative, as far as total ET and application,” he says.

For growers in Arnall’s area, the checkbook model confirms that almost constant deposits are required just to keep pace — and it can help reveal when small interruptions in irrigation might tip the balance into stress.

Match Irrigation To Crop Root Depth And Soil Type

Steele emphasizes that the size of a farmer’s “bank account” also depends on crop rooting depth and soil characteristics. Deep‑rooted corn on heavier soils can draw from a larger reservoir; potatoes on sandy ground with shallow roots cannot, he notes.

“With a corn crop… two‑thirds of an inch, that’s not a lot of water,” Steele says. In potato ground, by contrast, “if you’re managing 12 inches or 18 inches of root zone depth, that’s maybe what you’ve got to work with, so you’ve got to be around the circle more frequently.”

For farmers, that means:

In deep profiles with good water-holding capacity, the starting moisture balance is higher, and the system can tolerate larger withdrawals between irrigations.
In shallow or sandy profiles, the usable balance is small, so even modest daily ET can rapidly overdraw the account unless irrigations are more frequent.

Using The Ledger To Time Irrigation

Once a farmer has a running soil water balance, the irrigation decision can become a more disciplined approach. Steele advises growers to:

1. Irrigate when the projected balance approaches a chosen depletion threshold, not just when the soil surface looks dry.

2. Adjust application depth so that deposits match likely withdrawals over the next several days, considering forecast ET and possible rainfall.

3. Plan ahead for long pivot runs or “wipers,” where the time needed to complete a pass can allow the far end of the field to spend down its account before the irrigation system returns to that point in the field.

Steele says that on complex systems like windshield‑wiper pivots, he would pay special attention to water balance at both the starting and ending points.

“If I had a windshield wiper, I’d want to keep track of the starting and ending points and see how I’m doing, to make sure… you get back to that starting point in time,” he explains.

In practice, this might mean increasing application depth on certain passes, slowing the pivot at critical growth stages or strategically skipping lower‑risk areas where the account is still healthy.

Adding Sensors And ET Tools To The Checkbook

While Steele’s checkbook analogy can be implemented with simple records, it also provides a framework for using more advanced tech tools. Soil moisture sensors can serve as “bank statements,” verifying that the modeled balance matches reality. ET models and remote sensing can sharpen estimates of daily withdrawals, especially as researchers develop radar‑ and satellite‑based crop water use tools.

“There are people using satellite imagery as part of developing an integrated irrigation management system ... they’re keeping track of weather and soils and doing some estimation of crop water needs, and trying to estimate when the crop is going to need water, and then actually run the irrigation system,” Steele says.

In addition, local irrigation dealers and irrigation equipment manufacturers have apps and tools for managing water in the field, including variable rate irrigation. These tools are typically integrated into phone or desktop apps linked to the control panel of the irrigation system.

He suggests all of these technologies should feed into answering the same core questions: What is my soil water balance today, and what will it be if I do — or don’t — irrigate?

Manage Water Like Money

Behind the math and models, Steele’s message is that farmers who manage soil water like their money are better positioned to use irrigation when it delivers the highest return.

By tracking deposits and withdrawals, recognizing that “when” matters as much as “how much,” and understanding how soil and climate shape their account size, growers can head into this season with a clearer picture of where every inch of water is going — and whether it’s truly helping their crop.

Listen to more of Steele and Arnall’s recommendations on The Crop Podcast Show here .

4 Agronomic Pillars Every Corn Grower Needs

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 18:50:44 GMT

What if the next 10-bushel bump on your corn ground doesn’t come from a new product or technology but from how deep you set the planter and where you placed nitrogen? Dan Quinn, Purdue University corn specialist, says the biggest yield gains still come from decisions that sound simple on paper and are hard to execute in the field.

For Quinn, a winning season hinges on four pillars: plant deep enough for consistent moisture, protect uniform emergence and roots, respect nutrient interactions, and use technology and timing to manage risk — not to shortcut agronomy.

“Fundamentals are fundamentals for a reason,” Quinn says. “If something’s off… you’re not going to get any benefit from some of those more progressive practices.”

Here are the four recommendations he offers growers to get a strong start this season:

1. Consider Moisture Availability, Not Just Planting Depth

A successful season begins at the planter, but Quinn warns against getting comfortable with a “standard” depth. He argues that corn should be placed where moisture access is reliable, even if that means pushing seeds deeper than your traditional comfort zone.

“I’d rather be a bit on the deeper side than the shallow side,” Quinn says. “We’ve done some seed depth work showing corn can get out of the ground at 4 inches deep.”

While his typical target is a 2-inch depth, he advises growers to move deeper in dry conditions. The primary goal, he advises, is to ensure every seed sits in the same soil and moisture conditions to trigger uniform germination.

To complete the imbibition (water uptake) phase of germination, corn needs to absorb 35% of its weight in moisture, according to University of Nebraska Extension research . When adequate soil moisture is available, this typically occurs within 48 hours.

2. Protect Uniform Emergence And Early Root Growth

Quinn calls corn “a pain” because it offers little to no forgiveness when emergence is uneven.

“We have to get it out of the ground at the same time,” he says. “It has to be uniform, it has to get out of the ground quickly, and it has to get that root system established and moving.”

When a field looks off, Quinn said that nine times out of 10, the problem can be identified below the surface. Issues like fertilizer salt injury, compaction, or heat desiccation in sandy soils often start early but don’t manifest visually until weeks later.

“We see more often than not that if you have problems… a lot of times you can point back to that root system,” he says.

3. Master The N:S Ratio And Starter ROI

As yield targets climb, the conversation is shifting from “how much nitrogen” to “how does nitrogen interact with other nutrients.”

Quinn is specifically watching the relationship between nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S).

“Nitrogen and sulfur behave very similarly in the plant. They’re kind of joined at the hip,” he says.

Purdue research shows that high nitrogen rates can actually induce sulfur deficiency by throwing off the plant’s internal balance. As you push N rates and yield potential up, the crop’s sulfur demand also increases. If S isn’t increased proportionally, sulfur can become a limiting nutrient in the system. Quinn currently recommends 15 to 25 pounds of sulfur per acre, though he believes that might be a bit low in a high-yield system.

Additionally, Quinn remains a staunch advocate for starter fertilizer. Beyond the agronomic “safety net” it provides as corn transitions off seed reserves, he points to a secondary economic benefit: lower grain moisture at harvest.

“I’ve seen trials where just the drying savings from starter is enough to pay for the system, even beyond the yield benefit,” he says.

4. Use Tech As A Guardrail, Not A Crutch

While Quinn supports the use of variable-rate planting and advanced sensors, he views them as tools to manage risk rather than replacements for boots-on-the-ground agronomy.

He highlights hydraulic independent downforce as a game-changer for maintaining consistency in variable soils. However, he notes that even the best technology cannot fix a poor timing decision. In Indiana, this has led to increased reliance on sidedress nitrogen to limit exposure to unpredictable spring weather.

“It helps reduce some of the risk and vulnerability,” Quinn says. “It’s about making sure we do what we can to maintain having that nutrient available for the plant when it needs it most.”

Hear more of Quinn’s insights and recommendations on this episode of A Penney For Your Thoughts Podcast

The $10 Tool Randy Dowdy Uses To Grow Record Corn Yields

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 19:08:35 GMT

For high-yield corn grower Randy Dowdy, a successful harvest doesn’t start with the combine; it starts with a ratchet strap and an open furrow.

While many growers rely on high-tech in-cab monitors to guide their planting process, Dowdy argues the most critical data they need is found in the dirt behind the planter. By using ratchet straps to hold closing wheels up and out of the soil, he creates an “open furrow” that allows for a level of diagnostic evaluation he believes covered seeds cannot provide.

The Depth Deception

The logic behind this unconventional start to corn planting is rooted in the physical reality of soil settling. Dowdy, based near Valdosta, Ga., notes that even when a grower sets the planter for a standard two-inch depth, the final result often differs from what they were trying to achieve.

“Whenever the farmer goes back and looks at the plant, once it’s emerged, they find the germination depth is not the same depth as they planted,” he says. “Why did they not look at it and set it appropriately in the beginning? Chances are they can read that popsicle stick and measure depth. They know how to do that. But one thing I’ve found is that ground, when it’s been worked... it just settles.”

Whether a field is under conventional tillage, strip-till or no-till, the act of moving soil creates a “fluff” factor that can deceive even experienced corn growers. To compensate for this tendency, Dowdy advocates for planting slightly deeper in tilled or loose ground so the seed remains at the desired depth after the soil settles.

Open Furrow Diagnostics

To verify seed placement depth, Dowdy likes to use an open furrow for evaluation. He says this method allows growers to see exactly how the row unit is interacting with the soil environment without guesswork.

Randy Dowdy likes to check seed placement depth in an open furrow.

(Farm Journal)

“I don’t like to stand on top of my head and scratch for seed and all that garbage,” Dowdy says. “The first thing I want to do is make sure the row cleaners are set properly. I can do that better with an open furrow. I can look at spacing that way. I’m not standing on top of my head scratching, spending all this time trying to find it.”

The open furrow provides a clear window into the planter’s performance. Beyond spacing and row cleaner settings, it allows the grower to inspect for sidewall smearing—a problem that can severely limit root development if the soil is too tacky when the opening discs pass through. The visual check of an open furrow also tells the grower whether the down pressure is sufficient to maintain a consistent planting depth.

The Centering Challenge

Once the open furrow confirms that the row cleaners, meters, and depth settings are dialed in, the focus shifts to the closing system. Dowdy warns that even the best closing wheels can fail if they aren’t perfectly aligned over the seed.

He says standard V-press wheels are known to drift off-center. If they aren’t tracking directly over the seed trench, they don’t just fail to close the furrow—they actively change the planting depth at the final stage of the process.

“It doesn’t matter whose system it is, V-press wheels just do not like to stay centered,” he contends.

When the wheels drift off-center, they often pinch the furrow, leaving a raised ribbon of soil in their wake. This misalignment can create a less than desirable environment for the seed than what the grower intended.

A Systematic Start

Dowdy’s systematic approach—checking gauge wheels, setting opening discs, inspecting the open furrow, and finally calibrating the closing wheels—is designed to eliminate the variables that lead to uneven emergence. For Dowdy, the goal is to ensure that every seed is given the exact same opportunity to start strong, leading to the “picket fence” stands required for high yields.

By starting with an open furrow and systematically lowering the closing system only after everything else is verified, he says other corn growers can eliminate the guesswork that often leads to costly mistakes at planting.

“We’re not done, but this is the process of how we get started,” Dowdy says. “Next, we’ll let the closing wheels down, close that trench and see what we got.”

Replant Or Ride It Out? How To Manage The Challenges Of Early-Planted Soybeans

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 16:32:01 GMT

A burst of early soybean planting across parts of the Corn Belt last week has some farmers feeling ahead of schedule, while others are already bracing for replant decisions and dealing with seed challenges.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie reports in central Illinois, the convergence of record early planting, heavy spring rains, and uneven seed quality is testing stand establishment. Farmers are now facing tough choices regarding which fields — and which seed lots — will make the cut.

“The past 10 days, a lot of soybeans went in the ground,” Ferrie says. “I believe this may be the most beans ever planted in March for our customer base. We planted some here at the Crop-Tech campus, and they went in very well.”

However, that promising start was quickly met with adverse weather.

Ponding, Cool Soils, And Replant Calls

In parts of Illinois, recent storms dumped 3" to 3.5" of rain in a single night, leading to widespread ponding. While many of those areas drained within 24 hours, the status of those early-planted soybeans remains uncertain.

“Only time will tell, but because soil temperatures remain cool, I expect most of the beans will survive,” Ferrie contends. “If it were saturated and hot, they would die off quickly. But in cool conditions, you’d be surprised how long they can last.”

Ferrie urges growers to stay disciplined: scout fields, evaluate stands, and avoid guessing.

“If you’re scouting ponded areas and find soft, discolored seed, we’ll obviously need to replant. The quicker we get them back in the ground, the better the yield potential. We still have time to replant and maintain an early bean advantage,” he notes.

Crusting: The Hidden Threat

While ponding areas are highly visible, Ferrie warns that soil crusting on conventionally tilled fields may pose a greater threat to late-March soybeans.

“The bigger job is monitoring conventional-till soybeans for crusting. Heavy rain can create a seal that slows or stops emergence,” he explains. While no-till soybeans typically face fewer issues, they are not immune to crusting challenges and still require monitoring.

Ferrie believes many growers underestimate the importance of timely intervention.

“We may need to help these March beans out of the ground. Get the rotary hoe ready,” he advises. “The time to break a crust is when it’s light and the bean is not yet pushing hard against it.”

Waiting too long can turn a simple pass into a stand-loss event. “If the crust hardens and the bean hypocotyls become swollen trying to push through, your chances of success drop significantly. The trick is to go early. If you wait until the beans are clearly in trouble, the rotary hoe won’t be able to save them,” Ferrie says.

Seed Quality Under the Microscope

Weather isn’t the only risk factor this spring; seed quality is also under scrutiny. Seed labs are reporting a wide range of saturated cold test results.

“Samples are coming back all over the board,” Ferrie reports. “We’ve seen saturated cold scores ranging from 95% down to 9%. I suspect the samples falling below 40% may be carryover seed from previous seasons.”

The low cold score numbers are causing ripples in the supply chain, with seed companies pulling questionable lots from the system. This has led to canceled orders or last-minute substitutions for may growers.

“While it’s frustrating to not get the exact genetics you ordered, this is good seed stewardship,” Ferrie says. “Your supplier is doing the right thing by pulling that seed before it becomes a stand disaster in your field.”

Ferrie attributes these quality issues to last season’s production challenges, including heavy disease pressure and late-season drought.

Action Plan For Next Steps

Ferrie outlines several practical steps to help farmers manage the current volatility with seed quality and planting:

Scout Aggressively: Dig for seed in ponded spots for evaluation. If the seed is mushy or discolored, make the replant call early.
Ready the Rotary Hoe: Be prepared to move as soon as a crust begins to form. Ferrie refers to this as “Hoe before you know.”
Monitor Seed Tests: Work closely with your dealer to ensure you are planting high-quality lots.
Be Flexible with Genetics: A sound, high-quality substitute is better than a preferred variety with poor vigor.
Use Rain Delays Wisely: Focus on equipment maintenance and planter calibration so you are ready to roll when conditions improve.

Hear more of Ken Ferrie’s agronomic insights in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast:

Boost Your Bottom Line By Keeping Your Soils In Place

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 20:20:39 GMT

Not every cost on the farm shows up on an invoice. In the view of Eric Beckett, some of the most expensive losses corn and soybean growers face this spring will be invisible — soil carried away by winds moving across their fields.

Beckett, an agronomist with Sunrise FS, says a combination of windier springs, tighter margins and volatile fertilizer prices is forcing a reckoning with long-standing tillage and nutrient application habits. The goal for farmers, he contends, shouldn’t be just agronomic performance this season but risk management, as well.

“Anytime we drag a piece of tillage equipment across the field, we are essentially breaking down that soil aggregate into smaller aggregates,” Beckett says. “That makes soil more susceptible to loss.”

While Beckett isn’t calling for an end to tillage, he is urging farmers in Illinois and beyond to consider the “ramifications coming down the road” before making multiple passes to clean up winter annuals or level tile lines.

A Growing Storm in the Midwest

Beckett’s concerns are grounded in shifting weather patterns. Meteorologists like Victor Gensini at Northern Illinois University have noted a rise in the frequency of convective storms and damaging straight-line winds across the Midwest and Southeast.

Likewise, Nutrien principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass reports that the Midwest is in a rapid transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. While this “swift exit” can open planting windows, it also creates erratic atmospheric patterns. High-velocity winds are expected to surge through the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys through early April.

Beckett offers a concerned reminder for farmers tempted to push through windy conditions: “You’ve paid good money for that fertilizer. Why would we go out there when it’s windy and we have no idea where that fertilizer is going to end up, especially if it’s a variable-rate application where we know specific areas of a field need those nutrients?”

Calculating the True Cost of a Pass

Beyond the risk of blowing nutrients, Beckett suggests farmers “crunch the numbers” on the physical cost of every pass. With diesel prices hovering around $5 a gallon currently and tractor leases reaching $300 to $400 per hour, the overhead of extra tillage adds up quickly.

Beyond hard costs, tillage in what are currently dry soils will create additional costs. Beckett describes the ground in his area as “dry as a bone” six to eight feet down.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, this isn’t just an east-central Illinois issue: 41% of the U.S. corn-producing area and 42% of soybean acreage are currently experiencing some degree of drought. In droughty conditions, every unnecessary tillage pass further dries out the seedbed and can impact topsoil.

Navigating the Label and the Law

Wind doesn’t just steal nutrients; it creates significant legal liability. Most herbicide labels cap applications at 10 mph—a limit that is a legally binding mandate for many products, not a suggestion.

“If you are applying outside those windows and something goes wrong, you can be held liable,” Beckett cautions. To navigate these tighter windows, he suggests focusing on three tactical areas:

Carrier Volume: Increasing from 5 or 10 gallons per acre to 15 or 20 gallons can improve coverage and reduce the risk of fine, drift-prone droplets.
The Dust Factor: Even if winds are within legal limits, fine soil particles can “tie up” product and carry it off-target before it even hits the ground.
Drift-Reduction Tools: While not a license to spray in a gale, modern spray tips and drift-reduction agents are underutilized tools that can significantly improve stewardship.

The New Era Of Documentation

As new requirements tied to the Endangered Species Act take hold, Beckett says the burden of proof for compliance falls squarely on the applicator—whether that is the farmer or a custom applicator.

“Each field has got to have its own documentation,” he says. “Even if it’s just a manila folder... fill out what your mitigation practices are, what your setbacks are. Have that established in a file so the applicator can add to it as the season progresses.”

This level of detail is necessary because the industry is “under the microscope.” In an era where every passerby has a smartphone camera, Beckett says an application in a dusty field can end up on social media in minutes.

Ultimately, Beckett is asking farmers to make a deliberate pause to question habits and routine applications.

“I’m not standing here saying that everybody’s got to put cover crops on and turn every field green,” he says. “But if, collectively, everybody took it a little bit more upon themselves, I think we’d be in a lot better shape.”

Beckett addresses the topic of managing tillage and spray applications in unpredictable weather conditions during a recent episode of the Illinois Field Advisor podcast. You can watch the complete podcast here .

USDA Faces Record-Low Acreage Survey Response as NASS Seeks to Rebuild Trust with Farmers

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 17:48:45 GMT

The USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) released the March 2026 Prospective Plantings report Tuesday, and with no major surprises, the story this year may not just what farmers plan to plant, but how few farmers actually responded. Only 37.6% of producers participated, marking the lowest response rate in the survey’s history.

(Source: USDA)

For NASS , the implications go beyond a number. According to Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board, the low participation highlights a growing trust gap between farmers and the agency.

“We’ve got a bit of a trust issue out there,” Honig tells U.S. Farm Report. “That’s what I read on social media. That’s what I read in various farmer comments. That’s an issue right now… something we’ve got to work on rebuilding. We’re open to hearing what we can do to help rebuild that. We had a session at the Outlook Forum to talk about it. We’ve got the data user meeting coming up in just a few weeks on April 22nd. And we’ve got a request for information out there. We are seeking input from our users and our customers to tell us what we can do better, what we can do to help reestablish that trust. That’ll hopefully get farmers willing to respond to these surveys again.”

NASS @usda_nass is a small group of statisticians. They're good people. They have a tough job. Big Ag is much more nefarious. I think lots of people have it backwards. https://t.co/14ZOQW4m6m
— Joe Vaclavik (@StandardGrain) April 1, 2026

Even before the results were released this week, Honig told Farm Journal farmer participation is more important than ever, but he was concerned fewer farmers may participate, especially if they’re frustrated .

Honig emphasizes that rebuilding trust is critical because accurate data ensures farmers have a level playing field in agricultural markets.

“What we’re doing is to benefit everyone in agriculture, specifically the farmers, because we’re out here level in the playing field,” he says. “If we don’t produce accurate numbers, there are large companies out there that are going to be in a much better position to know what’s going on. We don’t want farmers to be at a disadvantage. But in order to keep that working smoothly, we do also need the cooperation of the farmers. We need to work together. We want to work together. And anything I can do to help make that better, I’d love to hear it because I’d love to do it.”

Regional Patterns, Response Challenges

Even with a low response rate for this report, Honig says response rates vary across the country each year, with certain regions consistently harder to reach. Honig noted that the Plains states—from Kansas up through the Dakotas—pose ongoing challenges.

“Response typically varies across the country,” he said. “Some of the toughest areas to get cooperation are through the Plains states… this time was no exception. But when you know where you’ve got these regional dips, we make some adjustments with our sampling in those areas. We didn’t see any change in the pattern of where response is higher and lower this time.”

Seth Meyer, who was the chief economist for USDA for the past five years, before returning to the University of Missouri as the director of FAPRI earlier this year, points out this is simply what farmers intend to plant, and these numbers will likely change.

“This is like watching the beginning of a negotiation. And so this is a really a survey based upon farmers’ response of what they might do, what they’re thinking about doing,” says Meyer. “And you’re kind of watching the bid process with the market, but you’re only seeing the farmers offer. Now you got to see the market go back and forth a bit.”

Timing of Responses Could Be Key

In an effort to increase transparency, NASS released daily response rates for the first time, giving analysts and farmers insight into when the data came in, which is key this year due to the ongoing conflict in Iran.

“Well, really two reasons. One is we try to really double down on transparency and rebuilding relationships out there, making it as clear about what these data represent as possible. We felt that was a key piece of information that we could share. So you can see within that two-and-a-half-week window when the data came in, what farmers were thinking when they reported—it’s really critical for this report. Specifically, there have been some events during that period that really had a big impact on what farmers might be thinking. Fertilizer prices spiked and things of that nature. We just wanted folks to be able to look at the data and see for themselves: what do you think the data really mean, knowing that this is when farmers actually told us what their intentions were?”

(USDA)

Meyer says by NASS reporting the share of farmer responses they received by day, from February 27 to March 15, it could help shine light on the share of responses that were submitted before the war started.

“And you know why [Lance] did it this year? Because we had the war with Iran beginning towards the end February and then continuing on. And so I think what happened is there’s something that initially folks might have thought was going to be a short action continues until today,” says Meyer. “So I think it was important for him to know where we were at, how many responses he’s getting because we saw fertilizer prices climb immediately, but then stay high as time went on. I think it was a critical piece of information for NASS, to say this is the response farmers were giving us and putting that in context of high oil and high fertilizer

Noticed this one, good context for this year, what was the response rate? https://t.co/f7YSGyezxG
— Seth Meyer (@SethMeyerMU) March 31, 2026

Market analysts say global events and regional fertilizer access likely influenced farmer responses to the Prospective Plantings survey. Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain agrees that timing could have played a role in this survey, but it’s hard to put an exact percentage on how many acres could possibly change.

“The surveys were being taken as the Iran and fertilizer situation was all unfolding. I’ve heard differing things about the fertilizer situation. Some of it appears to be regional. Feels to me, and based on what I’ve heard, farmers in the central Corn Belt and maybe in the eastern Corn Belt also had a lot of their nitrogen needs locked up prior to the initial attacks in Iran. And it seems like in some of, call them fringe areas or western Corn Belt areas, maybe not so much,” says Vaclavik.

He also points to market price shifts as another factor affecting planting intentions.

“Corn prices did rise at least momentarily following the initial attacks, and that may have helped to offset some of the fertilizer increase… but now we’ve given back all of those gains,” Vaclavik said.

The combination of global events, regional fertilizer access, and short-term price swings highlights the complexity of interpreting early March planting intentions, underscoring why NASS emphasizes that the report captures intentions, not final plantings.”

Crop Trends

While the report itself revealed some expected shifts, they were largely secondary to the trust and response issues. Corn acreage is projected at 95.3 million acres, down 3% from 2025, while soybeans are projected up 4% to 84.7 million acres. Wheat acreage continues a long-term decline, hitting a record low, with both winter and spring wheat contributing to the drop. Rice acres also declined slightly.

Honig describes these numbers as consistent with trends but reinforced the importance of interpreting them carefully.

“There weren’t a lot of surprises in this report,” he said. “But certainly some interesting numbers, and we want people to know this is what farmers were thinking in early March, given the economic environment and input prices at that time.”

Even with declining corn acreage and rising soybean intentions, analysts say the March Prospective Plantings report was largely in line with expectations. Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, describes the report as “rather an even keel situation.”

“No, I think it was tied,” Basse says. “When you lose three and a half million acres and gain three and a half million of soybeans, three and a half million acres of corn loss, you end up with rather an even keel situation. We need those extra, if you will, soybean acres. I would still say the market has a lean to buy more soybean acres relative to corn, but there’s also a strong historical tendency that we find additional corn acres by the June report. Over the last five to ten years, we tend to go up somewhere around two million acres in total. So again, maybe not that much this year because of [market conditions].”

With historical trends suggesting corn acreage may still rise slightly before final plantings are set, keeping the market closely watching June acreage updates.

Looking Ahead to June

With planting season underway, the June acreage report will provide an updated picture of plantings. As Basse pointed out, if you look at what history shows, corn acreage tends to increase by 2 million acres from March to June. But NASS officials emphasize that rebuilding farmer participation is critical for the reliability of all future reports.

“Absolutely,” Honig said. “I want to do everything I can to help reestablish that trust. I want to hear from folks: tell me, from your perspective, what we can do to help rebuild that trust. This is a partnership. Accurate numbers are critical for farmers. We need your cooperation, and we want to work together.”

2026 Acreage Outlook: Soybeans and Cotton Rise While Corn and Wheat Face Notable Declines

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:18:04 GMT

Iran Conflict Trumps USDA Reports as Money Flows into Food and Energy

"Prices are a function of supply and demand. Supply and demand does matter, but they are modified by the flow of money and that's certainly been true and evident in this Iran war situation," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX during a conversation on Markets Now with Michelle Rook. He says money has been flowing into the food and energy-based commodities on the expectation that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the movement of energy and fertilizer, there's a risk for higher prices. "Not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even food shortages," said Suderman. "In fact, there's quite a headline going across Wall Street today now expecting a global crisis of food in the months ahead. So money coming into those food-based commodities slowed down a little bit, ahead of today's reports, but now that today's reports are behind us, it didn't really give any reason to change that narrative. It continues to provide a tailwind in which we trade these fundamentals.

Bigger Acreage Impact From High Fertilizer Prices Might Come in 2027, Not 2026

Rising fertilizer prices ahead of planting aren’t unprecedented — and history suggests the biggest impact might not be immediate. Seth Meyer points back to Russian invasion of Ukraine as a clear example. Fertilizer prices spiked in late February 2022, sparking concerns farmers might shift away from corn. “Yet, at the end of the day, it wasn’t significantly noticeable that we saw a reduction in corn because of it.” In other words, even with a sudden cost shock, most planting decisions were already too far along to meaningfully change. Krista Swanson says the same dynamic might be at play this year. While higher input costs could affect some acres, not all farmers are equally exposed — especially those who already applied fertilizer or locked in purchases. But the bigger story might be what comes next. “As we look ahead … we’re not that far from when we’re getting shipments in for fall applications for next year’s crop,” she explains. While only some farmers might feel the impact in 2026, Swanson emphasizes the effects could be much broader in 2027. “This could be something that impacts all farmers … definitely thinking about how that positions decisions for next year.” Meyer agrees, noting fertilizer markets were already tight before the latest geopolitical disruptions, with prices for key inputs such as MAP and DAP remaining elevated. “If you’re trying to put fertilizer into position for the fall, you’re going to have to pay the prices you’re observing today,” he says. The takeaway is this: While 2026 acreage might not shift dramatically, sustained high fertilizer costs could cast a longer shadow, shaping planting decisions more significantly in 2027.

Listen to AgriTalk for Report Analysis and Market Reaction

Brian Grete with Commstock Investments joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to dig into the March 31 USDA reports. Click here to listen to the conversation. "We saw in 2025, what the March intentions are to the final acreage [estimates] could be a vastly different number," Grete told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. "That may be the case again this year. We will have to see. There isn't a whole lot of incentive out there to just go out and wildly plant. We see that in the principal crop acres, 310 million being the smallest since 2020 and down 1.2% from the 10-year average. It's a matter of the total acreage mix as we move forward."

NCGA's Krista Swanson: Significant Share of Corn Acreage Likely Set

When asked if the corn acreage estimate of 95.3 million was surprising, NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson replied no. She notes the estimate is down about 3% from last year, yet still comes in above USDA’s February projection of 94 million acres. That suggests farmers, at least at the time of the survey, were planning to plant more corn than initially expected. Swanson acknowledges it's still possible for farmers to shift away from corn as fertilizer and fuel costs rise, partly driven by geopolitical tensions. “Some acres could shift, but a lot of decisions are already made — and, in many cases, inputs are already purchased or even applied,” she says. “Once fertilizer is in the ground it becomes a sunk cost, and it makes switching away from corn much less likely."

USDA Survey Adds Timing Data to Capture Farmer Sentiment Amid Rising Fertilizer Costs

The timing of USDA's Prospective Plantings report matters more than usual this year. Market conditions were shifting in real time as geopolitical tensions with Iran escalated during the survey window. Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI at the University of Missouri, says the fact USDA-NASS shared a breakdown of when responses were submitted adds transparency that helps analysts better interpret the data, grounding farmer sentiment in the reality of rapidly changing input costs. Early survey responses might reflect very different expectations than those submitted later.

Wheat Acres Continue to Dwindle as Drought Stress Mounts

The latest Drought Monitor puts the proportion of US winter wheat area under drought conditions at a new high of 57% for 2026. That is significantly above 37% at the same time last year. USDA continues to pare back wheat acres in its latest prospective plantings report. The agency survey puts the all wheat planted area for 2026 at an estimated 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this would be the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

Planters are Rolling in Iowa and Illinois

Soybean Markets Surge as Iowa and Illinois are Expected to Plant Less Corn in 2026

According to USDA, planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states. Acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from last year are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. If realized, the agency says, the area of corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record. USDA also estimates soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Wisconsin. Soybean futures markets rose 17 to 19 cents midday following the release of the report, where USDA's survey showed fewer soybean acres than the trade expected, despite being higher than a year ago.

Matt Bennett: Bullish Soybeans and Wheat, Corn a Wash

On her Markets Now podcast, Michelle Rook chats with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net, to break down USDA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports and what the numbers mean to farmers. Bennett thinks corn acreage might drop in the June report due in part to the spike in fertilizer costs since the Iran war started. "Whenever it costs $1,000 or more an acre to put crop in the ground, there's no doubt we'll need to see a pretty sharp reaction before too awful long if we're going to switch many of those acres around," Bennett says. When it comes to soybeans, he says rotation and lower input costs both play a role. The biggest shock is the record low all wheat acreage at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Other spring wheat, at 9.42 million acres, was also down 570,000 acres and the lowest since 1971 due to disease and poor economics. "We've had very few opportunities to be able to step in and sell wheat at a profitable level," Bennett says. "It's just been problematic for a lot of growers to keep the same rotation they've had in the past. He was also surprised all cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, which is up 4% from last year. "Seeing cotton acres up, especially with the price action we've seen over the last year, is an absolute shock," he adds.

2025/26 Q2 Corn Demand Larger Than the Trade Expected

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: Corn and Soybean Supplies Surge Over 10% From 2025

USDA has also released its March Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers. At a glance: Corn stocks up 11% from March 2025 Soybean stocks up 10% All wheat stocks up 5% Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from March 1, 2025. An average of traders ahead of the report expected 9.10 billion bushels. Of the total stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.59 billion bushels, are down 2% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 4.28 billion bushels, compared with 3.93 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% from March 1, 2025. Traders pegged soybean stocks at 2.06 on average ahead of the USDA’s report. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.20 billion bushels, are up 16% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. The pre-report average of traders came in at 1.31 billion bushels. On-farm stocks are estimated at 298 million bushels, down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 8% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 377 million bushels, 12% above the same period a year earlier. Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2026 totaled 46.5 million bushels, up 21% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.2 million bushels, are up 40% from March 1, 2025. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.3 million bushels, down 4% from a year ago. From December 2025 to February 2026 disappearance totaled 14.9 million bushels, 17% below the same period a year earlier.

Markets React to Prospective Plantings Report

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher. As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher. Head over to Pro Farmer for reaction to USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage Intentions Total 180M

2026 Prospective Plantings: Corn and Cotton Top Trade Guesses as Wheat Slumps to Historic Lows

USDA's Prospective Plantings report is out. Here's a glance: Corn planted acreage down 3% from 2025 Soybean acreage up 4% All wheat acreage down 3% All cotton acreage Up 4% Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3%, or 3.45 million acres, from last year. Compared with 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states. That’s higher than the trade’s pre-report average estimate of 94.36 million acres. Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states. Heading into the report, trade analysts had an average estimate of 85.54 million acres. The all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Winter Wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% from last year Hard Red: 23.1 million acres Soft Red Winter: 5.79 million acres White Winter: 3.54 million acres Spring Wheat: 9.43 million acres, down 6% from 2025 Hard Red Spring: 8.78 million acres Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% from last year Trade analysts expected the all wheat number to be lower with an average estimate of 44.78 million acres. Cotton acreage is bouncing back just a little in 2026. USDA estimates the all cotton planted area for 2026 is 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year. An average of surveyed traders put the acreage number at 9.22 million for 2026. The March 31 estimate is also above USDA February Outlook estimate of 9.4 million acres.

Watch Live As NASS Releases Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Numbers

Watch live as the National Agricultural Statistics Service announces Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks numbers.

Time Will Tell How Acreage and Stocks Shake Out

Quarterly Stocks: Trade Eyes Massive Corn and Soy Inventory Build

USDA will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers today. The trade expects 9.1 billion bushels of corn, which is up nearly 1 billion bushels from last year but includes an increase of 775 million bushels on feed and residual. “I don't believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company. “Our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels.” Quarterly stocks on soybeans are estimated at 2.06 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last year, with wheat stocks at 1.3 billion, up just 60 million.

Mike North: Hoping for Optimism to Move Markets Higher

USDA's March Prospective Plantings Report tends to be "explosive" in terms of market reaction, according to Ever.Ag's Mike North.

Use Hybrid Flex To Time Nitrogen Use: ‘When It’s Needed, You Better Be There’

Mon, 30 Mar 2026 20:49:13 GMT

“Know your hybrids” isn’t a new message. But Farm Journal Field Agronomist Missy Bauer is urging corn growers to take it a step further this season. She wants growers to understand how their hybrids flex under stress, so they can prioritize field management practices and time nitrogen (N) applications for maximum efficiency and ROI.

What Is Hybrid Flex—And Why Does It Matter?

Hybrid flex describes how a corn ear adjusts its size and development in response to plant populations, growing conditions and nutrient availability.

Some hybrids are “fixed” and perform best when grown in higher populations and with consistent nutrition to reach top-end yields. Other hybrids will “flex” considerably, with ears adjusting in length, girth (rows around), or kernel depth when stressed.

“All ears definitely are going to flex, just some flex more than others,” Bauer says.

Here are the three different kinds of flex that occur in corn hybrids and how N application timing impacts them:

1. Length Flex: The Sidedress Priority

Hybrids that flex in length are sensitive to mid- to late-season N application timing. If weather or logistics delay a sidedress or Y-drop application, these hybrids commonly “tip back,” losing kernels off the end of the ear. This can cost 20% or more of potential yield, notes Bauer.

“If the weather’s pushing us on Y-drop, which field are you going to make sure you get to first? Any hybrid that is a length flexor, you better be there,” she says.

2. Depth Flex: Late-Season N “Hogs”

Modern genetics have shifted hybrids toward developing deeper kernels with more starch. Twenty years ago, hybrids commonly produced 90,000 kernels per bushel; today, that number is often 60,000 to 65,000 kernels per bushel. In 2024, Bauer’s average was 62,000, with some dropping as low as 54,000.

“Those things are hogs,” Bauer says of hybrids that emphasize depth-of-fill. “These are the hybrids we’ve got to make sure we’re really taking care of late-season, or they are going to flex backward on us.”

To optimize performance, growers should ensure these hybrids receive late-season N and fungicide, especially in high-yield zones. Also, be aware that if these hybrids don’t have adequate late-season N, kernels will be smaller and lighter, dragging down test weight.

3. Girth Flex: Early-Season Opportunity

Hybrids that flex in girth (rows around the ear) are most affected by early-season conditions and nutrition. Factors like planting quality and the use of starter fertilizer are big needle-movers for these hybrids.

“We’ve seen this type of hybrid respond a lot to early-season N applications with a furrow-jet and things like that,” Bauer notes.

A Practical Plan For Nitrogen Timing

Bauer acknowledges that tracking how every hybrid flexes can be a tall order. “This is no easy task,” she told farmers during a recent meeting. “This is why you need to be paired up with a very, very good dealer.”

She suggests a three-step approach to matching genetics to a good nitrogen plan:

Classify your hybrids: Ask your seed dealer which hybrids you’re planting are “fixed” and which ones flex in length, girth or depth.
Match hybrids to field zones: Place high-response length or depth flexors on your best soils where you can justify mid- to late-season N applications. Use conservative, stress-tolerant hybrids on marginal ground.
Set application priorities: Use hybrid flex type to determine which fields get N applications first, especially when application windows are short.

Sound Principles To Adopt

Regardless of whether a hybrid is fixed or flexes, Bauer’s broader nitrogen message is that total N availability to hybrids matters. In dryland corn–soybean rotations, her current research points to total N use in the 225- to 250‑pound per acre range to optimize ROI. But where and when that nitrogen is applied increasingly depends on the genetics in the field.

Bauer advocates these three principles:

Band nitrogen in-season whenever possible
Surface-broadcast urea rates low on her list of preferred tools. She favors banded UAN solutions that deliver the N directly where corn roots can access it, especially in sidedress or Y-drop systems.
Always stabilize surface-applied N
With Y-drop or other surface bands, Bauer insists on using N stabilizers, even when ammonium thiosulfate (ATS) is in the mix. Generics are fine, she says, but notes that skipping stabilizers is a “false economy” when N is expensive, like it is currently.
Keep sulfur in the program
Bauer views ammonium sulfate as nonnegotiable in most corn programs and likes to see sulfur used in starter and in-season passes as well. Variable rate application nitrogen maps can be paired with sulfur placement to ensure high-demand zones have both nutrients.

Monitor N Use In-Season

Use in-season testing tools and weather to fine-tune N applications so corn “never has a bad day.” Bauer recommends growers walk through these questions as the season advances:

What has the weather done?
Years with a “mean June” — frequent, heavy rains that trigger leaching and denitrification — may demand extra N, especially on lighter soils or sand ridges.
What do nitrate soil tests say?
Some of Bauer’s clients pull in-season nitrate tests, particularly on irrigated fields or suspect zones. The numbers can confirm whether planned N use is holding up well or a sidedress application is in order.
What are tissue tests showing?
On pivot-irrigated acres, Bauer often samples the ear leaf at silking. If tissue N is short, she may recommend adding a few more gallons of UAN — sometimes with ATS — through the pivot or a late-season application.