PORK Week

Catering to New Demand, How the Pork Industry Now Has a Plan to Win Over Millennials and Gen Z

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 20:22:03 GMT

No matter where you travel across the U.S., pork producers across the country just weathered an extremely heavy storm. High costs and low pork prices meant some pork producers suffered the steepest losses on record last year.

“The last two years was the toughest two-year stretch I’ve ever gone through my life. The financial losses were terrible,” says Al Wulfekuhle, a pork producer in Quasqueton, Iowa.

Wulfekuhle has raised pigs in northeast Iowa for more than 30 years, and he says they’ve been in survival mode the past two years.

“We’ve been in tough times before in my lifetime. I went through a 1998 when we had a packer capacity store shortage, and I went through other times, too. But it’s kind of survival, and then you look forward to better days,” he says.

Better days is exactly what Wulfekuhle and other pork board members are working to create.

“It really just emphasizes the importance of demand,” says Bob Ruth, outgoing president of National Pork Board (NPB) who lives in Pennsylvania. “I joined the Pork Board with a demand platform. One of the wise guy once told me, ‘I don’t care how cheap you can raise pork, if you can’t sell it, it doesn’t do you a bit of good.’ And that’s been our problem in pork, we have not done a great job of building demand.”

Ruth says it’s a pivotal moment for the pork industry, and one that could really drive demand.

“We’ve not asked our consumer about their habits. And so, you know, to learn was just really important for me, as a leader, and as a producer to understand,” says Ruth.

Who’s Eating (And Not Eating) Pork

In order to better understand consumers, the National Pork Board launched a segmentation study to see who’s eating or not eating pork and why.

“When you look at the biggest challenge today around pork, it really is centered around one word, relevancy. And that’s a hard pill to swallow for someone in the pork business like myself,” says David Newman, senior vice president of market growth for NPB.

Newman is also a pork producer in southern Missouri, and he says since joining the NPB with a focus on growing demand, he’s learned pork demand is strong with the older generations, but not the younger generations today.

“The reality of the situation today is that the baby boomer generation has carried the bulk of this business for the last 20 or 30 years,” says Newman. “And as we’re starting to see a transition in shift to Millennials and Gen Z’s, the future consumers of pork, then we really need to focus on that and the things that the baby boomer generation appreciated about pork, their purchasing habits, how they cooked it, how they would have presented. It’s different than today’s consumer that has that buying power.”

Segmentation Study

Newman says instead of a shotgun approach and targeting all different types of consumers, the Pork Board launched a segmentation study to see not only who is pork’s customer, but what matters to each of those segments of customers.

“It’s really a transformational moment for pork, to put a focus on who is the future,” says Newman. “We can’t be all things to all people. We can take a more targeted approach and more wisely use the dollars that our producers have invested in checkoff.”

The segmentation study conducted by NPB showed 7 segments of consumers, ranging from confident meat eaters and culinary adventurers to tasty value seekers and simple feeders.

“What this does is when you go into a marketing strategy, it gives you an opportunity to go to each one of those segment populations, and you can position pork in a way that is relevant to them,” Newman explains.

Why Gen Z Doesn’t Eat Much Pork

Morgan Wonderly runs the University swine farm at Cal Poly, San Luis Obispo, and she also teaches courses there.

“At Cal Poly, about 80% of our students come from Los Angeles County and the Bay area, so I’m getting to expose them to swine production,” says Wonderly. “I think it is so important because some of them have never even seen a pig in their whole life.”

She says her class is a lot of myth busting while also discovering why the college students aren’t big consumers of pork today.

“The younger consumer isn’t really buying as much fresh pork. If we we’ve done data on it at National Pork Board, about 46% of them see it as an indulgent choice,” Wonderly says. “I think one of the biggest concerns that they come back with is hearing it’s not a healthy product or that it’s not raised properly. So, we’re combating that at the National Pork Board level. We’re telling people there are eight lean cuts of pork, it’s an awesome product and that we are making decisions every day on the farm that are impacting the pigs and the way we raise them in a healthy way.”

Positioning Pork as an Ingredient

Wonderly says she often asks her students how many have eaten pork at the center of the plate in the past week.

“I just asked them this question last week, two out of 72 raised their hand. So, they’re using pork as an ingredient versus the traditional center of the plate. I think that’s a huge aspect, and so we’re using that as a tool,” she says.

She says knowing the younger generations don’t use it center of the plate, and instead, use pork as an ingredient, they’re catering recipes to that.

“We have airfryer recipes and we’re trying to be more relevant with the younger generation versus saying, ‘Hey, have a pork chop and a potato and some vegetables. And you’re good to go,’” says Wonderly.

Newman says the changing trend with the younger generations in how they consumer and cook pork is an important one to cater to in the years ahead.

“For the first time ever, data that was just released from the National Pork Board says there are more air fryers homes in America than there are coffee makers,” says Newman. “So these consumers, they cook a tremendous number of their meals with items that baby boomers may not even own.”

Newman says that means creating smaller cuts that can fit into an air fryer, but also include recipes that makes it easy for those generations to cook. And that does require making more relevant products, but it’s also spurring innovation.

“Every day someone calls me and asks me about pork nuggets as an example. While it may be relevant and down the road, you have to build consumer confidence and relevance and innovation will follow,” says Newman.

Working With Every Piece of the Supply Chain

By also working with packers and processors, food service companies and even retailers, Newman says the Pork Board is positioning pork products in a way that matters to consumers.

“A rising tide will lift all boats, and that you’ll actually start to see something that can be spread throughout the industry, therefore translates into not only volume and consumption, but sales,” says Newman.

A New Frontier to Grow Demand

It’s a new frontier for pork, and one pork producers are confident will grow demand.

“I am so proud of the Pork Board in the fact that we’ve doubled down around demand,” says Ruth. “We have got to be patient. We have got to be determined. And we have got to be focused on demand. It’s not something that you wave your magic wand over and it’s going to happen overnight. This is a decade to maybe a two-decade process that we all have to be behind.”

“I think it’s how we’re going to win and how we’re ultimately going to meet the consumer where they’re at and when and build an appetite for pork,” says Wonderly.

“I think we’re going to win over consumer demand,” Wulfekuhle says. “We’re going to show the younger generation how to better prepare pork and how to cook pork, how to eat pork, how it fits into their diet and the nutritional value and the value.”

“It’s a transformational moment for the pork business. Yes, we have a very unique opportunity today, on the backside of a very dark time over the last two years,” Newman adds.

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Pork Needs a Bigger Audience Reach

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How Pork Cultivates Culture to Reach a Bigger Audience

Why Demand Matters

EU's Pork Production is Down 3 MMT in Two Years. To Put That in Perspective, That's as Much as the U.S. Exports in One Year

Fri, 07 Jun 2024 20:19:35 GMT

Pork exports have been a bright spot in the pork industry this year. Strong exports are coming from a number of countries and areas, including Korea, Colombia, Central America and Australia. But the European Union’s massive drop in domestic production is also giving U.S. exports a boost, and some of that drop is a product of environmental regulations.

According to the U.S. Meat Export Federation data, EU’s pork production fell nearly 3 MMT from its peak in 2021.

“When you say 3 million tonnes, it doesn’t sound like a lot, but that’s 25% of our production. They’ve reduced their output by the amount of product that we export,” says Steve Meyer, chief livestock economist of Ever.Ag, who shared during the live taping of U.S. Farm Report during World Pork Expo this week. “So, this is a major shift in world supply situations with the EU stepping back that far. And it’s opened some opportunities, especially in Asia for us, that we can take advantage of.”

Meyer adds the proof is in the pudding, with export dating showing increases of nearly 55% to Korea.

“It’s a big deal, and it’s one of those things where it’s not going back the other way, more than likely,” Meyer says. “In fact, their production is probably going to go down more in the years to come. It’s kind of stabilized this year, but I think they’re going to make sure they’ve made policy decisions that are going to limit their output for years to come.”

EU’s pork production is now the lowest level in nearly 25 years. So, what’s causing pork production to take such a drastic drop? One reason is EU environmental regulations that have forced producers to cut back production. At the same time, EU is also dealing with ingredient supply chain problems and increased input costs. But economists and analysts say the environmental regulations are having the biggest hit to producers there.

“When you look around the world of what’s happened, there have been some major shifts in recent years,” says Brett Stuart, President and co-founder of Global AgriTrends. “The EU is a major competitor, but there have been some regulatory changes that have really caused them to step back from the global markets, which has provided a real in for U.S. pork in a lot of these key markets.”

Erin Borror, vice president of access and analysis for UMSEF, says the export market is a changing one, but it’s also complex. She describes it as a tale of two stories for pork exports.

“We had European products, undercutting us when China pulled back after they rebuilt through ASF, and so we’ve seen a return to U.S. competitiveness,” Borror says. “Our exports are going more volume at higher prices. So, we have seen that demand component. I think that’s really critical to understand.”

She says Europe’s pork prices have also increased after being too low in 2021 and 2022.

“And so there’s that factor in Asia, so especially Korea, Southeast Asia, where we’re seeing that growth, as well in Australia, taking back market share from Europe,” she says. “The other side is here in the Western Hemisphere, and in Latin America, where U.S. pork is driving consumption growth.”

That strong demand is thanks to trade agreements. “When you look at consumption growth in areas of Asia, that’s because of Europe’s production being down,” she says.

“I think there’s some real opportunities ahead, and it’s market by market. These markets are all unique,” Stuart says. “As we look out, I’ve got pork exports forecast up 9% this year, and that might be on the upper end of the range of vast amounts. But I look at it’s not just Mexico or Korea or Colombia. If you look at the other non-top 10 markets, that’s over 80 countries. That market is up 30% year-to-date, and it grew 30% last year. And so it’s not just this handful of markets we hear about a lot.”

Hope for Pork Profitability in 2024 is Fading

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 23:55:31 GMT

U.S. pork producers just came off the worst 18 months of negative profit margins in history, even 1998. There was optimism when hog futures rallied to contract highs at around $110 this spring that 2024 would be a more profitable year. However, that hope has faded.

Pork margins started off 2024 in the black, but spring and summer month hog futures have set back $15 to $17 from the contract highs set in mid-April.

Steve Meyer, senior livestock economist, Ever.Ag Insights, says cash and cutouts just stalled the last six weeks, pulling down the lean hog futures and cutting into break evens and profit levels.

“It has gotten progressively worse since March,” he says. “Back in March, the model I have - which is based on historical Iowa State University estimated costs and returns - had about $10 per head, and that’s for probably the low cost 25% of producers which I think the Iowa State model really represents. So, that was about $10 per head back in March. That model last week had minus $4, and it’s mainly been a reduction on the revenue side because of the selloff we’ve seen on the lean hog futures market.”

Meyer says the cost of production has also increased.

“We had about $85 in that cost model back in March and almost $88 now. So, the uncertainty of getting this crop planted has kind of put a little fuel on the corn and soybean markets and cost us some,” he says.

Cash and the Lean Hog Index have also stagnated as pork cutouts have been flat during April and May. Meyer says cutouts usually stage a seasonal rally of $6 to $8 in the spring. So, it’s not tied to hogs supplies but instead soft demand.

“Export demand has still been pretty good, so I don’t think that’s where it is,” Meyer explains. “If we look at the real per capita expenditures, pork real capita expenditures are down almost 5% year to date through March. That tells us that the softness we see is on the consumer side in the United States.”

He’s concerned about the slower demand with supplies ramping up into 4th quarter as weekly hog slaughter pushes over 2.7 million head and squeezes processing capacity.

This could mean additional pressure on cash and wholesale pork values ahead.

Healing Power of a Pig: How a Show Pig Helped Georgia Family Battle Cancer in the Midst of the Pandemic

Thu, 02 Feb 2023 21:33:21 GMT

A dream 20 years in the making is now a reality for the Curtis family.

“It used to just be him with a few sows, then as I came on board, we’ve increased our hospitality and marketing and all of that, too,” says Emily Curtis, owner of Curtis Show Pigs.

Emily and her husband Michael breed and sell show pigs at their family farm in Thompson, Mo. Their two daughters also joined in on the fun this year, stepping into the show ring for the first time and carrying on the family tradition.

“We just have a lot of fun with it at this point,” says Michael Curtis, who started the operation before he even graduated high school.

While the Curtis’ will be the first to tell you their operation is small, which is by design, they are modest when describing their reach. The Curtis family farrows twice a year, drawing quite the crowd each time, typically selling out of show pig stock.

“We farrow in the summer, as well, and have just developed a relationship with some Georgia ag teachers,” says Michael. “We send a lot down there in the fall, that will then show in February, or March down there.”

Devastating Fire

Catering to a loyal list of clients has become the Curtis family’s specialty.

“We have past connections to a FFA group in northern Georgia and the ag teacher reached out to me, we delivered some pigs down just like we always do. And a week later, I got a text message from the mom of this girl, saying their trailer had burned and the pig we sent them was lost in the fire. She wanted to replace the pig,” remembers Michael. “So, they contacted us wanting to purchase another one.”

“I think the first phone call was that their whole trailer had burned, and the pig had been inside and died,” adds Emily. “And tragedies like that happen with barn fires, and just tragedies with the animals, and usually we don’t have pigs left. Thankfully since it had just happened, we still had pigs.”

A Gift of Generosity

With pigs still in their pens, the Curtis’ knew exactly what they needed to do.

“I mean, it was no brainer: send her a new pig,” says Emily. “Her mom wanted to pay for it, but we said of course not. It means so much to these kids to show, and your heart breaks for the kid going through that. Giving them the pig is least you can do, and any other breeder would have done the exact same thing.”

The Curtis’ were gifting this family another pig out of generosity. While that act of kindness was a remarkable gesture for a family the Curtis’ barely knew, but the story didn’t stop there.

“I reached out a couple months later to check on the pig and see how it had done, since they should have had a few shows by then. I just sent a little text message just hoping for update on the pig. Instead, we got an update on the family situation that her dad had been diagnosed with cancer,” says Michael.

Challenging Cancer

The cancer diagnosis that came for one Georgia family was the exact day they were gifted the show pig from the Curtis’ in Missouri.

“We were blindsided by COVID-19, and then with leukemia,” says Naomi King, the mom of 16-year-old Miriam King, who lost her first pig in a trailer file, and then planned to show the new pig given to her by the Curtis’. “I was like, ‘oh my gosh,’ because we went and picked up her pig that morning. And then that afternoon, I took my husband to our local oncologist here in Blairsville. I didn’t even know what an oncologist was.”

“I was actually at the pig barn at the time,” says Miriam. “My mom called me on the phone and said, ‘Dad has cancer.’”

With those words, came a flood of emotions as reality started to set in.

“As soon as the pig trailer caught on fire, and then we got a new pig, named Jimmy Dean, to show, I just felt like God did not want us to show this year,” says Naomi. “I was like, ‘shoot, we have the pig already, what are we going to do? We’re going to bring him with us.”

So, that’s what they did. Jimmy Dean, as they called him, was what helped Miriam have at least some piece of normalcy while her dad was undergoing cancer treatment in Atlanta. All of this also happening in the middle of the COVID-19 pandemic causing the world to shut down.

“I walked down the streets in my grandmother’s little neighborhood every day with the pig,” says Miriam. “All while the neighbors were looking at the pig.”

Desire for Normalcy

The Kings brought a piece of home with them, as well as a steady routine to keep her mind off the reality of her dad’s diagnosis.

“In the middle of COVID-19 and leukemia, Jimmy Dean brought us normalcy,” says Naomi. “It made life normal. That’s [walking the pig] just what we do. This is what we did every year previous. With COVID-19, everybody wanted normal. And with another family crisis going on, we wanted normal.”

The desire to bring normalcy as chaos was actually unfolding for the Kings, came for a girl who found FFA and showing pigs was her passion.

“The pigs have been really great because she was homeschooled and kind of shy and quiet,” says Naomi. “And when she decided that she wanted to go to public school in ninth grade, it was a big adjustment for her. FFA was just in her niche. She just got right into it.”

Deep Dedication

As the Kings were battling the fight against cancer as a family, the Curtis family in Missouri was also learning about the miles Miriam went to still care for her show pig.

“That just hit me so hard, I said, ‘that’s some dedication,’” says Emily. And it showed me how much they were supporting each other as a family, and that the parents were supporting her still having this project that she was dedicated to caring for an animal.”

That deep dedication turned into inspiration for the Curtis’ annual t-shirt.

“That became our theme,” says Emily. “But it’s so much more than about a t shirt. It’s just the inspiration that she gave me. And then I knew that it would inspire so many other people. I’m just amazed by them.”

Healing Power

For the Kings, Chris’ journey is just getting started.

“I’m just going now to keep the doctor proved wrong,” says Chris.

“We knew God could do this,” says Naomi. “When knew God could cure him no matter what chemo or what these doctors wanted to do. God can. He can. And he did.”

“I have a 100% clean bill of health,” says Chris.

At a time when the COVID-19 pandemic caused so much pain for many, the Kings have been an inspiration.

“Naomi said that Chris is cancer free and in remission, and they got that news on the same day that Jimmy Dean went to slaughter,” says Emily. “So, that pig got Miriam through the exact number of days that her dad was fighting cancer, and just the symbolism of that, and how much these animals mean to all of us, it’s a story meant to be told.”

Lessons about life – and reminders about the strength of family and faith - extended beyond the show ring for the Kings. As Jimmy Dean is proof that a show pig is more than just a project.

“You have to keep pushing through, whether it be COVID-19 or leukemia, every family’s going through something right now. Don’t quit,” says Naomi. “Keep striving. Every day is a new day. God’s mercies are new every morning.”

The Kings say they’ll continue showing pigs, as their teenage daughter learned more about life and dedication during 2020 than some do in an entire decade.

Read more about the King’s family story on Farm Journal’s PORK Business .

DC Signal to Noise: Will Hot/Dry Weather This Week Affect Accuracy of Upcoming S&D Report?

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:56:36 GMT

AgriTalk’s Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer recap the hot topics last week and a look ahead to what to watch this week. Watch the video above or listen to the podcast below for discussion on these topics and more:

> Concern over the hot temperatures and lack of rain, and how the S&D report coming out later this week may or may not have that factored in.

> The continuing cyber warfare situation

> PORK Week

> A possible worker strike at the Smithfield plant in South Dakota and more.

Just Ask This Nebraska Pig Farmer, Your Farm's Current Carbon Footprint May Shock You in a Good Way

Fri, 10 Jun 2022 19:58:45 GMT

Step on to Lukas Fricke’s farm in Ulysses, Neb., and you’ll quickly see a farm family carrying on a legacy rooted in six generations.

“I get to work on a family farm, really lucky to be able to farm with my brother, Brendan, my mom, Laurie and another longtime employee, Mike,” says Fricke. “We grow kids, crops and pigs.”

The Nebraska farmer says his father started planting seeds of conservation across their farm, including when he adopted cover crops nearly 15 years ago. His dad has since passed, but Fricke is working to not only preserve the strong foundation already set by his father, but also uncover new opportunities. This year, those opportunities are continuing, but he’s also not immune to the challenges currently facing farmers and livestock producers across the country.

“We’re worried about are we going to have enough extra nitrogen that we’re not already getting from hogs to be able to help in turn grow that corn crop for next year’s pig crop,” says Fricke.

The other major concern he has as a pork producer is having enough people at the packing plants to which he sends his hogs.

“That’s something that I’ve actually experienced quite a few times when trying to take pigs,” says Fricke. “We’re now scheduling around moving loads, taking them on and off simply because the employee force is not there all the time.”

Availability and proximity to the nearest packing plant isn’t just about business for pork producers, it also has a major impact on his relationship to the environment.

“I really never even knew our carbon impact,” he says. “I never understood what our water footprint was until I started to look at it. I know a lot of people want to maybe paint a bad picture for production agriculture, with using barns to raise our animals, or using synthetic fertilizers or crop protection products. Those aren’t scary things. Those are a part of the solution.”

Fricke, along with other pork producers, recently came together to set sustainability goals for the pork industry, goals in which National Pork Board’s Ashley McDonald says are aggressive, yet attainable.

“That was one of the things that they really thought about is what is right for our industry,” says McDonald who is the interim Vice President of Sustainability for National Pork Board. “We want to be aggressive enough. We did an assessment of the needs of the supply chain members as well as external stakeholders, and then looked at those ambition levels and looked frankly, at what types of measures we’re going to need to employ in our industry to actually achieve those.”

The environmental goals set by Pork Board include a number of things including:

continuously improving water-use efficiency
improving soil and land biodiversity by restoring and protecting natural habitats
by the year 2030, reducing greenhouse gas emissions by 40% from a 2015 baseline

“There was a lot of analysis done, and at the heart of that was what is achievable, technologically, economically and what’s right for the U.S. pork industry,” says McDonald. “One thing we have to remember is that everything that improves the productive capabilities of the pork industry is a sustainability practice. And so there is a very long list of those practices in barn as well as in the field.”

In order to measure and communicate the strides made in sustainability, the National Pork Board created an “On-Farm Sustainability Report” for pig farmers which is used to assess what farmers are already doing, while also digging into areas in which they can improve.

“One thing we’ve realized from doing a lifecycle assessment and other assessments of our industry is that 50% of our footprint comes from the feed that we feed our animals,” says McDonald.

“Until you start sitting down and doing the accounting and say, ‘I’m using less diesel fuel, I’m having less passes, I’m using less water, which is less electricity to pump water and or all those different things, they all add up in the end to help create a better product.”

From measuring tillage and fuel used to grow crops, to the manure his farm produces, yet also taps into for fertilizer needs, Fricke says his On-Farm Sustainability Report was a game changer.

“We’re taking out more co2 in the atmosphere already, because I’m using row crop and I make less passes across the field,” says Fricke. “I’m using my hog manure where able to better impact the environment. All of that is helping me to take more co2 out of the atmosphere and store it in the ground.”

From that completed assessment, Fricke found just in one year, their farm management practices accounted for

Taking 207 average passenger vehicles off the road;
Five rail cars of coal saved from being burned;
3,585 tons of soil, which equates to 224 dump trucks, that was saved from being lost to erosion.

“It really helped us understand that every little thing that we do, every little less pass across the field and every less pass of tillage help add up and really create a difference,” says Fricke.

Fricke says as the report broke it down in such tangible situations. It really helped him understand every detail or pass across his field, counts.

“We’re not a ginormous farm, either,” he says. “ The best part is, is that there’s lots of people like us that are doing this. And if they took the time to sit down, get the numbers out. It’s really not that hard of a process. You’re already using it for your end-of-the-year breakeven calculations. Honestly, it helped us figure out where we can go, where we can improve and where we can do even better.”

For McDonald, it’s these findings that will translate into conversations rooted in solutions.

“We can produce an aggregated report that talks about the greenhouse gas reductions we’ve contributed that talks about our manure usage and the soil health benefits of that application,” she says. “There are a ton of benefits to being able to do it yourself, as opposed to wait for somebody else to tell you to do it.”

As the pork industry works to quantify the sustainable solutions already in place, it’s helping open the door for crucial conversations that Fricke knows can help secure a future where pork remains at the table.

“I think it’s more our relationship with the environment and the beneficial relationship that modern agriculture can play,” he says.

We will be uniting together June 6-12 for PORK Week across all of our Farm Journal platforms to elevate the important role the pork industry plays in feeding the world. Share your stories and post photos on social media using #PORKWeek22 to help us honor the pork industry. From “AgDay TV” to “AgriTalk” to “U.S. Farm Report” to PorkBusiness.com and everything in between, tune in and join us as we acknowledge the most noble profession there is: feeding people.

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$8 Cash Corn And $18 Soybeans Sales? It's Reality And Means All Bets Are Off For Feed Prices Now

Fri, 10 Jun 2022 19:19:16 GMT

USDA’s June World Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) was released Friday, and as expected, it didn’t produce many surprises. The bigger market mover could be later this month when USDA updates grain stocks, as well as issues an updated look at U.S. crop acres.

USDA’s most recent report showed larger than expected wheat stocks, as well as old crop and new crop corn stocks.

After a week of strong corn and soybean prices, Friday’s markets saw price pressure with old crop soybeans down 20 cents. Now that the majority of the crops have been planted despite the late start to planting this year, is a top in and could grain prices start to taper off? Joe Kerns of Partners for Production Agriculture by EverAg answered that question during a live taping of U.S. Farm Report from World Pork Expo this week.

“No, I don’t see that at all,” says Kerns. “We’re as close to normal as humanly possible as far as planting progress is concerned, development is slightly behind schedule. We have some warmer temperatures coming, which should help speed that along. There has been a lot of rain that we’ve had here in the last week or so. But we’re in an era where the carry out to use ratios relative to price have completely disconnected themselves.”

This week, farmers reported selling old crop soybeans for $18. That comes after farmers have reported corn cashing in above $8. The prices are now at levels farmers haven’t seen since nearly a decade ago.

“We are approaching the high values that we’ve seen in 2008 and 2012. Those were largely U.S centric production issues. And we’ve have a global condition right now where if you’re a U.S. pork producer, right now you’re paying $8 plus for cash corn, whereas if you’re in China, you’re $12 for corn, $22 for soybeans and $600 for soybean meal. We’ve got a global situation. Inflation is certainly not helping those matters whatsoever. But this is probably a market where setbacks are need to be bought rather than tops or need to be sold.”

Higher Feed Costs Aren’t What’s Causing Herd Consolidation

Pork producers aren’t only faced with higher feed costs. Other challenges have also caused hog and pig numbers to see setback across the country.

“We’ve been cutting this out heard some ever since the pandemic began,” says Steve Meyer, an Partners for Production Agriculture by EverAg. “With our numbers smaller than it has been in past years, hanging very close to 6 million head, it’s not because of big liquidation. At this point, I think we’re going to be kind of sideways, we’ll have some negative numbers on the sow herd, probably, but they’ll be small. The big thing that drove it was losses in 2020, when prices fell so drastically during the pandemic shutdowns of our, our packing plants and those kinds of things.”

Meyer described last year as a great year of recovery for pork producers, largely because pork demand was so strong.

“Producers had very strong profits, and so we’re kind of going sideways here. It’s not that we’re cutting very much now, but we’re for sure not growing,” says Meyer. “And the reason we’re not growing, there’s a lot of them production costs being put at the top of the list, building costs being up there labor availability, there are a lot of reasons.”

The Need for More Packing Plant Capacity

Moving forward, Meyer acknowledges the pork industry will have to see more packing capacity come online in order to continue to support hog prices.

“We’re going to have to add some more packing capacity before we grow this business very much over the next several years,” adds Meyer. “We’re kind of in between at the moment. This year is not going to be great, because the production costs. Last year was pretty good. There’s some incentive out there but there are a lot of reasons that we’re not really expanding this herd very rapidly.”

The Big Question Regarding Demand

Demand was the shining star for pork prices last year. Export demand smashed records and domestic demand was on fire. This year, those exports have slowed.

“It’s China and its price,” says Dermot Hayes, an agricultural economist with Iowa State University. “Our prices, right now, are off the charts compared to even China. We’re actually a little bit higher than in China’s hog prices. There’s a glut of pork in China, the EU product that would have gone to China is available for Asian markets, and it’s pushing ours back. Fortunately, we had that strong domestic demand in the first quarter. And that that absorbed product that might have gone into the export market too, and it’s kept their prices up.”

Hayes doesn’t see China returning to the U.S. for pork in a major way this year, but he does think pork demand starts to rebound due to liquidation in China.

“The have a futures market, and it’s not predicting a return to profitability at all looking forward,” says Hayes. “So they’re going to have to liquidate those highly leveraged buildings. And that would probably take six months to a year, and then you wait another six months to a year and we’ll see demand come back in China.”

Domestic Demand Staying Strong

On the other hand, domestic demand hasn’t seen signs of slowdowns yet, despite inflation. The latest Consumer Price Index data shows pork prices at the grocery store are up 13% year-over-year. Chicken prices have soared 17% during that time. Beef prices are up 10%.

“Pork demand is up over 6% from a year ago, and that was record-high last year domestic demand,” says Meyer. “If that can continue, I think we will hold these hog prices in so that we don’t see a lot of red ink on the on the producer side. Now, that’s a pretty big if given you’re looking at higher inflation, you’re looking at the possibility of a recession, a number of things.”

Meyer says history shows us that pork demand hasn’t taken big demand hits during periods of recession. He says in the past, beef and chicken see bigger impacts during tough economic times due to the reliance on the food service sector.

“I think we can survive that pretty well. My biggest concern is what is inflation due to real purchasing power in the hands of consumers,” says Meyer. “It’s going to be a drain how many dollars they have for discretionary spending. That may hurt meat demand as we go forward. So I think that’s the biggest risks we face outside of these high production costs, which I guess I don’t think those are a risk, I think they’re pretty much a certainty.”

We will be uniting together June 6-12 for PORK Week across all of our Farm Journal platforms to elevate the important role the pork industry plays in feeding the world. Share your stories and post photos on social media using #PORKWeek22 to help us honor the pork industry. From “AgDay TV” to “AgriTalk” to “U.S. Farm Report” to PorkBusiness.com and everything in between, tune in and join us as we acknowledge the most noble profession there is: feeding people.

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World Pork Expo Returns in Person: Here’s Why Attendance Will Be Strong

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 19:02:23 GMT

World Pork Expo (WPX) is making its grand return to Des Moines, Iowa, this week. After a double dose of headwinds forcing show cancellations, this year marks the first time since 2018 the event is being held.

The event was canceled in 2019 due to African swine fever (ASF) concerns, while 2020 was shut down because of the COVID-19 pandemic.

The National Pork Producers Council says this will mark the 33rd annual WPX event.

“Excited is an understatement,” says Neil Dierks, CEO of National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) who just last week announced his retirement after three decades of working for NPPC. “We’ve not had Expo for the last two years because of various things. Of course, we all know a year ago this time, things were shut down. But we’re very excited to have Expo this year. And it appears from early indications from interest by exhibiting companies and others that people are very excited about getting back to having an Expo.”

In a recent Farm Journal’s PORK poll, 55% of respondents said this will be the first in-person pork event they’ve attended since the start of the pandemic. Nearly 30% said they are most looking forward to networking with companies and 25% said they couldn’t wait to get to the show to catch up with friends.

Source: Farm Journal’s PORK

“It seems like people are a little bit of starved from being able to talk face to face with people,” Dierks says. “I’ve heard the comments saying they miss having the meetings because they was learned much even in the hallway from other attendees. So, we’re really excited about it, and from an NPPC perspective, Expo allows people to come together to share stories, look at new technology, attend seminars, attend the barbecue and more. We are very, very excited for this year.”

In addition to catching up with friends, brainstorming and sharing ideas were the biggest things attendees have missed about the WPX not taking place the past two years, the survey noted.

NPPC is expecting thousands of producers and industry professionals to attend, including a trade show with more than 700 vendors. Survey respondents said the first thing they plan to accomplish when they get to the event is to walk the trade show. More than 22% of those surveyed said the trade show was their favorite part of WPX.

World Pork Expo kicks off Wednesday, June 9 and runs through Friday, June 11. Follow along as Farm Journal’s PORK provides complete “PORK Week coverage ” from the event this week.

Farm Journal Live: World Pork Expo is Back!

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 19:01:38 GMT

After a two-year hiatus, World Pork Expo has returned to Des Moines, Iowa for its 33rd annual event.

“We anticipate a large registration and showing and turnout of our producers across the U.S. who want to come to Des Moines and hear about that new innovation, new products, new services being offered to the U.S. pork industry, but also recognizing the fellowship and camaraderie we have as pork producers,” said Jen Sorenson, President of the National Pork Producer’s Council. “I think we’re excited to see everyone.”

Last year’s event in Iowa was canceled due to the pandemic. The year before that, 2019, it was canceled due to African Swine Fever concerns.

For many, this is the first in-person pork event they will have attended since the start of the pandemic.

“Sadly we have taken away the live pig show, which brought quite a bit of risk when it comes to disease transmission and made some adjustments from a human health and COVID standpoint as well,” said Sorenson. “We’re looking forward to having a safe and biosecure World Pork Expo over the next two and a half days.”

NPPC is expecting thousands of producers and industry professionals to attend, including a trade show with more than 700 vendors.

AgDay TV’s Clinton Griffiths also asked Sorenson about the recent line speed ruling during a Farm Journal Live.

“Right now we’re working through a solution with the labor unions, with USDA, with the packing plants, and with the pork producers who will be impacted,” said Sorenson. “So, hopefully, we will come to a compromise here soon.”

Republican Senator Chuck Grassley of Iowa told reporters on Tuesday he is leading the effort to send a letter to USDA and Department of Justice.

The letter will ask the agencies to appeal a court ruling that ordered a return to slower line speeds at pork packing plants.

This after USDA announced last month it would not seek to overturn the ruling and instead said plants should prepare to revert to a maximum line speed of 1106 head per hour at the end of this month.

“These plants that do follow the faster line speeds are very regionalized,” said Sorenson. “Producers who supply into those six specific plants could see a 25% capacity reduction, which is a lot. When we look at what happened last fall and last spring with COVID and the backup of animals we do not want to be in that situation again.”

An Iowa State economist says the slower speeds could cut income by more than $80 million dollars.

Vilsack Says Reducing Line Speeds at Pork Plants Isn't a Done Deal as July 1 Deadline Looms

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:55:49 GMT

As World Pork Expo enters its second day in Des Moines, Iowa, a policy priority for the pork industry continues to be the issue of line speeds at pork plants. And just this week, Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack made comments that contradicting an earlier statement from USDA, with Secretary saying no final decision has been made on the issue.

The USDA recently announced it would not appeal a Federal Court’s ruling ordering packing plants to operate at slower line speeds, and many in the industry feel this will do more harm than good . The Federal Court judge said line speeds needed to be slowed at six plants operating under the New Swine Inspection System. The decision is set to take effect July 1, 2021.

During a press conference with reporters this week, Vilsack said no decision has been made yet on appealing a ruling in March. This goes against a notice from USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service last month that said the six facilities should prepare to revert to their old speeds of 1,106 animals per hour at the end of this month.
Vilsack says in any case, the decision is up to the Solicitor General.

The National Pork Producers Council says this is the most pressing issue for the pork industry right now.

“We’ve been encouraging the government and our administration to appeal this decision. NPPC still believes the administration should appeal this rule,” says Neil Dierks, CEO of National Pork Producers Council (NPPC). “There are other possibilities as we go forward, but our hope is that there could be some resolution to this.”

Dierks says recent studies have shown the reduction of line speeds won’t improve worker safety like proponents of the line speed change claim. He says ultimatley, it will be smaller producers impacted most if the reduction in line speeds stand.

“Reducing line speeds at plants won’t benefit and could have a negative impact on our producers,” says Dierks. “Dr. Hayes’ study shows the impact on this kind of thing will disproportionately impact smaller producers because you have a situation where suddenly the plant can’t operate at certain levels, that means producers have to do something else as far as a market that they maybe had been committed to, and could create all sorts of angst through the industry.”

Dr. Dermot Hayes, an economist with Iowa State University, released a report in May that showed even with possible mandatory overtime to compensate for lost capacity, the industry will lose 2.5% of overall harvest capacity if the ruling stands.

“Six pork processing plants are currently operating at higher line speeds allowed under the new USDA inspection system,” says Hayes. “Five of these plants have been operating at these speeds for more than 20 years under the pilot program introduced during the Clinton administration.” Three of the impacted plants are located near top-producing Iowa.”

He says this will cost producers $83.2 million via lower spot market prices, with small hog farmers likely to bear the brunt of the decision.

“Packers will likely use Force Majeure provisions to declare their pricing contracts with hog farmers null and void, forcing these farmers to sell their hogs on the spot market,” Hayes says.

Follow more PORK Week content here .

How the COVID-19 Pandemic May Have Changed Consumers' Taste for Pork Permanently

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:55:46 GMT

As demand for U.S. pork continues to heat up around the globe, 2021 seems to be the year of pork.

“It’s been a really strong demand side that has driven hog prices higher than I would have suspected six months ago,” says Scott Brown, University of Missouri economist.

“The positive is good demand,” says Neil Dierks, CEO of National Pork Producers Council (NPPC) . “I have to point out our current hog markets aren’t, because we had a huge problem with production or supply of animals.”

From the bacon jam cheeseburger now available at Sonic , to I HOP launching a bacon obsession menu featuring candied bacon pancakes and maple bacon milkshakes, bacon isn’t just back. It’s become a staple on many menus.

“We have loins up and stronger, with prices above $1. Yes, bellies are high as well. And bacon’s been doing well,” says Brown. “But seeing what might have been a traditional grocery store purchase, like loins, continue to be high here in 2021 is some good news for the pork industry.”

The pork craze is fueled by demand that continues to heat up coming out of the COVID-19 pandemic.

“Here we sit now in June of 2021, and we have nearly record-high hog prices, record-high pork cut outs,” says Bill Even, CEO of the National Pork Board (NPB) .

As restaurants cash in on a growing hunger for pork, retail is also seeing shoppers’ increased desire for pork.

“I do wonder if we haven’t allowed consumers to refine pork a little bit in terms of on the grill, in the home, as well as away from home,” adds Even.

Even says during the pandemic, consumers went from over 50% of the food dollar spent dining out, to a sudden switch of 95% of that dollar spent on eating at home.

“And what we learned in that conversation was really what happened with ground pork. People are accustomed to grabbing hamburger, which is fine, but suddenly, when the stores were starting to run empty, people started grabbing ground pork and started experimenting with it and found, ‘Oh, wow, this is really tasty.’ It’s really versatile,” says Even.

NPB is even piloting new ground pork offerings with some national grocery store change, and Even says the change in consumers’ taste could last.

“I think that’s a pretty exciting thing and a positive thing that actually came out of the pandemic,” says Even. “People tried new foods and like them. Ground pork was one of them.”

As more shoppers turn to pork, the National Pork Board is cooking up another opportunity with what’s called “ Real Pork .”

“’Real Pork’ is a way to give voice to real farmers on real farms that have real pigs that produce real pork,” says Even. “And we’re really proud of what we’re doing.”

From the traditional advertising and marketing to consumers, Even says it was time to flip the focus.

“So, here we sit in 2021, and it’s about giving voice to the producer and talking to the consumer who loves our product, but also has questions about how that product is raised,” Even adds.

That increased demand for pork isn’t just happening in the U.S.

“We see places like Mexico who’s starting to increase their trade with us,” says Brown. “So some COVID-19 recovery, maybe, is part of what’s happening here in 2021.”

The strong demand in April happened despite sales to China falling. The latest U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) report showed pork shipments hit a new record in April, despite purchases from China dropping 20%.

The growing hunger for U.S. pork is diverse, which is a refreshing trend for pork producers across the U.S.

Follow more PORK Week coverage here .

In the Dark: Why China’s Feed Needs and ASF Recovery Will Continue to Be a Mystery

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:54:34 GMT

Conflicting reports continue to surface about the status of China’s hog herd and feed demand. China says the herd is well on its way to recovering from African swine fever (ASF), which wiped out more than half of its hog herd. China also has a robust start on feed demand, booking a record amount of corn for this time of year. Yet, 2020 went down in the record books of historic pork demand from China, a sign the country didn’t produce as much pork as Chinese officials led other countries to believe.

Reuters reported in May that, “Beijing-based Cofeed, a private consultancy set up almost 20 years ago, had established itself as what many in the market regarded as the most comprehensive supplier of information on grains and oilseeds in the world’s biggest buyer of soybeans. It stopped updating data on its website and in feeds to clients on April 29 without explanation.”

While some signs point to a recovery for China’s hog herd, Christine McCracken, senior analyst, animal protein, for RaboResearch , says reliable and consistent data out of China is more like a black hole.

“Part of the challenge right now is some of the traditional sources that we’ve used, are no longer available,” she says. “China really has clamped down on a lot of those traditional sources. And as a result, the flow of information is obviously slow. And you don’t necessarily have the same confidence in that data maybe that you used to have.”

This week, reports showed China’s producer prices were rising at its fastest pace in 13 years, with China’s producer price index (PPI) climbing 9% in May. That marks the largest year-over-year increase since September 2008, and blew past economists’ forecasts.

The opposite is happening for pork. Pork prices, which have risen sharply in recent years because of widespread culling due to ASF, dropped 24% year-over-year.

“What I can tell you out about China is that it continues to be very volatile,” says McCracken. “Prices, as reported, are down some 50 plus percent. And actually now, most of those producers there are operating below breakeven. So, it is a bit of a struggle to piece it all together, especially with less reliable data.”

Dermot Hayes, an economist with Iowa State University , says the Chinese used that tactic to their advantage recently. He says China’s strategic decision to protect market intel helped the country buy grain at a cheaper price.

“China bought almost a billion bushels of corn from us at a relatively low price, or prices much lower than we would have sold it to them if we knew that they were going to buy a billion bushels, so it’s playing to their advantage and our disadvantage,” he adds.

So, is China’s pork industry well on its way to recovering from the ASF outbreaks as the country stated last year? Hayes says there are a few metrics he keeps his eye on closely.

“What I watch is the price of piglets, and they’re down, and the Chinese futures markets, which was way high until a couple of weeks ago, is now down, too. So, that suggests to me that they are making progress,” says Hayes. “But that’s progress that’s coming nine months after they claimed they were making progress.”

John Phipps: Hog Hotels? China's Megaplex Hog Buildings

Thu, 24 Jun 2021 18:54:31 GMT

By now, if you follow any ag media, you’ve probably seen pictures like this. Multi-story hog farrowing and finishing buildings, often in megaplexes with tens of thousands of pigs. I call them styscrapers.

Like most Chinese industrial developments, there are good reasons for why these facilities are popping up. First is the shortage of farmland. China still has around a half-billion individual farmers and a significant portion of their hog production is from these tiny farms. Despite efforts to consolidate farms and move people to cities, the traditions of land tenure – remember the state owns all the land – and the problem of what would these farmers do in the cities, recent events have added a new impetus favoring huge facilities, namely African Swine Fever (ASF), which decimated maybe half their hog population in the last three years. ASF is virtually impossible to contain on tiny farms, but these new operations implement isolation practices that seem to provide solutions. Workers live on site, for example, in what are essentially dormitories except for specific intervals. This idea was perfected by their computer industry, such as FoxConn. All traffic undergoes decontamination worthy of a nuclear reactor site.

But it was this picture that truly fascinated me. This is a huge hog building on top of a mountain. Crudely put, my first thought was “surely they know stuff flows downhill”. Then I began researching as best I could how these pork megaplexes solve one of producers’ biggest headaches – how to handle the immense amount of manure. Almost surely the Chinese have answers, but all I could find was references to waste treatment facilities. How they distribute it over thousands of tiny farms baffles me. Or they may be simply ignoring these problems, polluting rivers and overloading without regulation. Even dried to solid form, the problem of phosphate loading on farmland, not to mention nutrient runoff, is a formidable challenge. If viewers know how these megaplexes handle manure, I would appreciate a link.

This raises for me a larger question: if such waste technology is in use in China, why not here? Has our relative abundance of farmland allowed us to fall behind in waste technology? Pictures this winter of Midwest manure being spread on frozen farmland does not reassure that our pork producers are rising to the significant nutrient, odor and sanitization challenges. Are there solutions in China we can reverse engineer just like they have in other industries?