Retail Beef

The Shrinking Slice: Farmers Receive Less Than 6 Cents of Every Food Dollar

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 20:30:40 GMT

For the past two years, USDA has estimated farmers and ranchers received less than 6 cents of every food dollar. In 2023, that was 5.9 cents, and using the latest data from 2024, it’s 5.8 cents.

“Our oldest data point right now is 2007 [USDA updated the data series] and that’s 14.7 cents per dollar, and now we’re down all the way to 11.8 cents per dollar,” says Faith Parum, economist with the American Farm Bureau Federation. “So we’ve really seen that decline year after year. It reflects how much of the value of things in the grocery store or when you go out to eat is going to other parts of the supply chain and not necessarily to farmers and ranchers.”

Livestock vs. Crops: A Widening Gap

The aggregate decline masks a widening gap between sectors. While the overall farmer share is down, livestock and crop producers are seeing divergent trends:

Crop Farmers: Share dropped from 2.9 cents to 2.5 cents (a 2.5% year-over-year decrease).
Livestock Producers: Share increased from 3 cents to 3.3 cents.

“Overall, the farmer share is down. But we have those two markets really at odds,” Parum says. “We’ve seen that tale of two farm economies where our livestock producers maybe have seen a little bit of better days than they had had in the past, while our row crop farmers and our specialty crop farmers are really facing strong headwinds in the market.”

Effect at the Farm Gate

As highlighted by USDA, farm finances are quickly strained when farmers/ranchers are capturing a small percentage of the food dollar and even modest swings in commodity prices and/or input prices take place.

Parum adds, “when we talk about the health of our farms and the health of future generations on the farm, and being economically viable and sustainable and being able to keep their operations open, the trends we’re seeing right now are really hard for those farmers. Our ranchers are seeing a little bit of better days right now with high beef prices, but that’s not going to last forever, and with production expenses continuing to increase, we’re really going to see that that question come up of, what is sustainable if, if these dollars we’re spending in the grocery store aren’t making it back to our farmers.”

Where Does the Money Get Distributed?

The key takeaway: farmers produce the raw commodities that make food production, however, the price is clearly more determined by what happens after the products first leave the farm.

The USDA Food Dollar Series tracks how each dollar is spent by consumers and then divides it across the industries contributing to the value in the supply chain, such as farming, food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retail and food service. As noted by the USDA, with each step in the process, the additional services, labor, transportation and infrastructure add value and increase costs to the final food product.

USDA’s Economic Research Service Food Dollar Series shows in 2024, farmers received 11.8 cents of every dollar spent on domestically produced food, the remaining 88.2 cents of the food dollar went toward the ‘marketing bill’, which includes costs associated with food processing, transportation, packaging, wholesaling, retailing and food service. Over time, this shift illustrates how an increasing share of food spending is driven by services and supply chain activities rather than farm production itself.

Groceries Leave the Most on The Table For Farmers

Farmers’ share of consumer food spending varies widely depending on the type of food purchased. For example, the farm share of the food-at-home dollar was 18.5 cents in 2024, up slightly from 18.4 cents in 2023. But even in this category it means only than one-fifth of what consumers spend on groceries goes back to farmers.

As you may expect, products with minimal processing, require less of the value to be retained in that part of the food system, and therefore return a larger share of the food dollar to producers.

“The highest commodity that gets the most of that food dollar is fresh eggs,” Parum notes. “That’s just because there’s limited labor to process that food.”

Examples include:

Fresh Eggs: 69.1 cents (+6% from 2023)
Beef: 52.2 cents (+4.8%)
Fresh Milk: 50.8 cents (+5.6%)
Pork: 23.7 cents (+7.2%)
Poultry (+3.1%)
Fish (+2.8%)
Tree nuts and peanuts (-1.7%)
Fresh fruits and vegetables (unchanged)
Bakery Products: 4.8 cents (-9.4%)
Soft Drinks/Bottled Water: 1.3 cents (-7.1%)

98% of U.S. Households Are Buying Meat: New Report Shows Record Sales

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 18:02:03 GMT

Meat sales hit a record high of $112 billion in 2025, with a pound increase of 2%. Millennials and Gen Z were a driving force behind the growth, according to the 21st annual Power of Meat report released today at the Annual Meat Conference by the Meat Institute and FMI — The Food Industry Association .

According to Circana, more than 98% of American households purchase meat, and 45% of shoppers are actively trying to prepare more meals containing meat or poultry. According to 210 Analytics, of the five dinners shoppers prepare at home per week on average, 90% already contain a portion of meat or poultry.

“The meat department is outperforming because it delivers what shoppers want right now: protein, flexibility, value and taste,” says Rick Stein, FMI vice president of fresh foods. “Retailers that balance convenient ground options with premium, indulgent cuts will be best positioned to capture both budget-conscious and experience-driven shoppers.”

Which Generations Are Driving Meat Sales Growth?

Millennials and Gen Z shoppers accounted for 67% of unit growth. They are more likely than other shoppers to be actively trying to prepare more meals containing meat or poultry — Gen Z 50% and Millennials 57%. In 81% of households with children, kids have some level of influence on meat and poultry purchase decisions. Seventy-two percent of shoppers with teens at home say their teens request meat and poultry, far ahead of requests for protein bars, shakes and powders.

How is AI Changing How Consumers Buy Meat?

Younger generations also lead the way in using social media and artificial intelligence (AI) platforms for meal inspiration. Twenty-four percent of Gen Z and Millennial shoppers use AI tools, compared to 10% of Gen X and 4% of Boomers. Overall, 15% of shoppers use AI tools, a 650% increase compared to just two years ago.

Is Meat Still Considered Part of a Healthy Diet?

Meat and poultry continue to feature positively in shoppers’ health and nutrition perceptions, with 77% of shoppers agreeing that meat and poultry are part of a healthy diet, up more than 20% since 2020. GLP-1 users over-index versus non-users for eating somewhat or a lot more meat than last year (161) and for frequently including meat and poultry in snacking occasions (171).

“Americans are more focused on making smart food choices than ever before, and this latest Power of Meat report reinforces meat’s clear and irreplaceable role at the center of healthy, convenient, affordable meals today and for generations to come,” summarizes Julie Anna Potts, Meat Institute president.

Read more about how the food pyramid puts protein back on top:

New Dietary Guidelines Move Food Pyramid Closer to the Farm

The New Food Pyramid Flips the Script

The Power of Meat study was conducted by 210 Analytics on behalf of FMI and the Meat Foundation and sponsored by Cryovac Brand Food Packaging. Sales and purchase dynamics data are provided by Circana for the 52 weeks ending Dec. 28, 2025.

Your Next Read:
Consumer Craze for Protein Drives Beef Demand
Why Aren’t High Beef Prices Causing Sticker Shock With Consumers?
What Do Consumers Buy in the Meat Aisle When Money is Tight?
Global Protein Demand Surges 2% Annually as Producers Navigate Volatile Markets

Brazil Surpassing U.S. As Top Beef Producer, Easing Global Supply Squeeze

Thu, 08 Jan 2026 16:01:53 GMT

Brazil surpassed the U.S. as the world’s top beef producer last year, according to market estimates, after the South American country beat output forecasts by hundreds of thousands of tons, easing a global supply squeeze and helping limit a surge in meat prices.

Brazil was already the biggest beef exporter, shipping meat worth almost $17 billion in 2025, according to government trade data released on Tuesday. Beef production numbers are not due until February, but analysts have recently raised their estimates. Farmers have been sending more animals to slaughter, cashing in on high export demand from countries including China and the U.S., where low supply has pushed beef prices to record levels.

Elevated slaughter typically leads to a period of low output as producers hold back animals to breed and rebuild herds. But productivity gains in Brazil may limit or even prevent a downturn, people in the industry say. They noted that farms have been inseminating cattle quicker, fattening them faster and slaughtering them younger.

“Ten years ago, the average age of cattle slaughtered in Brazil was five years,” said Vinicius Barbosa, a commercial manager responsible for tens of thousands of cattle at the CMA feedlot in Barretos, about 260 miles (420 km) north of Sao Paulo. “Now it is 36 months and going rapidly to 24,” he said.

Mauricio Nogueira, head of livestock consultancy Athenagro, said Brazilian beef production far surpassed his forecast in 2025. Output grew 4% for the year, where he had predicted a 2.7% drop. The increase of around 800,000 tons was about equal to total annual exports of Argentina, the world’s No. 5 beef shipper.

Rabobank, which had expected Brazil’s beef production to decline in 2025, now sees 0.5% growth to 12.5 million tons carcass weight equivalent. The U.S. Department of Agriculture in December raised its estimate for Brazilian beef output by 450,000 tons to 12.35 million tons.

If the official numbers confirm market estimates, 2025 will be the first year that Brazil’s output will have surpassed U.S. production, which fell 3.9% to 11.8 million tons in 2025, according to USDA estimates, following years of drought.

Feedlots, Rising Carcass Weight Drive Output

U.S. beef production will fall a further 0.9% to 11.7 million tons in 2026, the USDA said. In Brazil, the USDA and Rabobank project a decline in output, but Nogueira said rising productivity could actually boost Brazil’s production by around 300,000 tons.

Almost 28% of cattle slaughtered in Brazil will be fattened in feedlots by 2027, up from 22% in 2025, according to consultants Scot Consultoria.

“Feedlots do in 100 days for cattle what pasture does in between 18 and 24 months,” said Barbosa, adding that CMA’s Barretos feedlot would process 80,000 cattle in 2026, up from 65,000 last year.

A drone image shows cattle entering a feedlot at CMA Farm in Barretos, Sao Paulo, Brazil.

(Joel Silva/Reuters)

Brazil’s booming corn ethanol industry is generating a byproduct known as dried distillers grains that has higher protein than corn and helps cattle fatten faster, analysts said.

Cows are becoming pregnant more often as farmers adopt more efficient insemination techniques, allowing producers to slaughter more animals without reducing herd size.

Scot Consultoria expects Brazil’s pregnancy rate - the proportion of females that become pregnant during a breeding season - to rise to 54% in 2027 from an expected 50% in 2026.

Better genetics are also improving cattle growth and boosting meat quality, analysts say. And Brazil still has not matched the 90% proportion of cattle passing through feedlots as in the U.S., or Australia’s 40%.

If Brazil’s pregnancy rate rose to 66%, equivalent to neighbouring Argentina, the number of calves birthed each year would rise from an estimated 32 million to 40 million, according to consultants Datagro. The pregnancy rate in Canada is 96%, they said.

Government data show Brazil has 238 million cattle, well over double the 94 million in the U.S. Higher productivity would allow output to expand without increasing cattle numbers or the area of pasture land. That could ease one economic driver of deforestation of the Amazon rainforest.

Brazil’s cattle herd is expected to grow just 4% between 2024 and 2034 while beef production increases 24%, according to Brazilian beef exporter group ABIEC. U.S. beef production will rise 3.5% and cattle numbers will grow 5% over that period, by USDA estimates.

Brazil Key As Top Producers Scale Down

Global beef prices will hinge on whether Brazil can avoid a production downturn this year.

The USDA expects output in the world’s six biggest producers to fall in 2026 by a combined 2.4% - the biggest annual drop in decades - after rising 0.4% in 2025. These producers are Brazil, the U.S., China, the European Union, Argentina and Australia. The list excludes India, which the USDA names as one of the six top beef producers even though that country produces buffalo meat rather than beef.

The USDA expects Brazilian production to fall 5.3% to 11.7 million tons carcass weight equivalent this year. If Nogueira’s estimates are confirmed and output rises instead to around 12.6 million tons, the decline in the top six producers would be just 0.2%.

“There has never been so much international demand for Brazilian beef,” said Guilherme Jank, a Datagro analyst, adding that local beef packers have also ramped up capacity.

“We are witnessing firsthand a significant shift in how the beef cattle supply system works in Brazil, in terms of quality, scale, efficiency, and productivity,” he said.

(Reporting by Ana Mano in Barretos and Peter Hobson in Canberra; Additional reporting by Ella Cao in Beijing and Tom Polansek in Chicago; Editing by Brad Haynes and David Gregorio)

Shrinking Slaughter Capacity: What's Next in 2026?

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 17:33:42 GMT

The long-feared rightsizing of shackle spaces to more closely match the number of cattle has begun.

“The market’s reaction to the November announcement was a good reminder that market volatility still exists even when the supply and demand fundamentals continue to be positive forces into the start of 2026,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, in his Q1 2026 Outlook .

In late November, Tyson Foods announced its plan to end operations at its Lexington, Neb., beef facility and convert its Amarillo, Texas, beef facility to a single, full-capacity shift.

“Terrain estimates the changes will eventually reduce U.S. slaughter capacity by about 6.6%,” Weaber explains. “However, slaughter plant capacity utilization is still nearly 6% behind historical norms, as the number of cattle is still well short of filling available slaughter capacity.”

Weaber predicts this positive shift in operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and better compete for the available cattle.

“I expect utilization to decline by about 2% during 2026 when two new plants in Nebraska and Missouri complete their startups,” he adds.

A proposed plant in the Panhandle of Texas that would handle 6,000 head per day has the potential to lower utilization rates back to early-2025 levels if completed.

“Even without additional future slaughter capacity, utilization rates will remain low; fed cattle numbers are expected to decline during the next two to three years because of cow-calf producers’ beef cow herd expansion efforts,” Weaber summarizes.

The reduction in current fed slaughter capacity will help the remaining plants run more volume, improving efficiency by spreading fixed and semi-variable costs across more head and pounds of beef. This positive shift in operational efficiency will likely encourage plants to fill available capacity and better compete for the available cattle.

“I expect that in the near and intermediate term, this effect will at least partially offset the shift in market leverage, which currently favors the packer,” Weaber says.

Markets and Beef Prices Remain Resilient

Beyond the near-term impacts to futures traders’ sentiment, the market impacts of the announced closures are fading.

“Calf, feeder cattle and fed cattle cash markets are already recovering and have posted significant rallies,” Weaber says. “Fed cattle supplies for the first half of 2026 are not going to change. The number of cattle placed into feed yards is the number placed and will be the number that gets slaughtered. The location the cattle get processed into beef may change, but overall beef production is mostly set.”

(USDA NASS, Terrain)

He adds: “ Consumer beef demand and spending remain strong and supportive of cattle prices. Presidential and executive branch rhetoric about lowering beef prices has had little to no impact on retail and wholesale beef prices. Tariff reductions on imported lean trimmings from South America are driving volumes, but prices for contracted loads delivering in the first quarter of 2026 are record high, up 20% from a year earlier.”

“I expect the choice cutout to average between $375 per cwt and $385 per cwt and fed cattle prices to average between $234 per cwt and $238 per cwt in Q1.”

— Dave Weaber

Q1 2026 Price Outlook

“I expect available fed cattle supplies during the first quarter of 2026 to be 6% to 7% smaller than the year prior,” Weaber says. “Even with a 2% shift in leverage (fed cattle price to comprehensive cutout) to the packers’ favor, I expect the Choice cutout to average between $375 per cwt and $385 per cwt and fed cattle prices to average between $234 per cwt and $238 per cwt in Q1.”

By early December, light feeder cattle and calf auction prices have recovered much of the losses incurred since late October and appear poised to start 2026 at record levels.

“Changes to the U.S.-Mexico border status remain the greatest known risk for cattle prices,” Weaber stresses.

Further rallies in deferred live cattle futures will drive the balance of the recovery in prices for heavy feeder cattle that make up the CME feeder cattle price index. He explains demand for light cattle to be turned out on wheat pasture and California coastal range has been a key driver for the rally in light cattle.

Biggest Risk Is South of the Border

Changes to the U.S.-Mexico border status remain the greatest known risk for cattle prices.

“The Mexican government has implemented broad cattle movement and import restrictions within the country as well as greater fly control measures in partnership with the USDA,” Weaber says. “Meanwhile, U.S. and Mexican officials have begun inspections of only one border crossing into New Mexico. Additional cases of New World screwworm have been found in Mexico, which I expect to further delay the reopening.”

Active risk management to preserve operation equity should remain a priority.

“If the border were to reopen, cash feeder cattle and calf prices and feeder cattle and live cattle futures would be the first to move down,” Weaber explains. “The magnitude of the impact will depend on the rate-limiting and cost impacts of the protocols that are implemented and the number of backlogged cattle south of the border.”

One Lesson From Plant Closures

“If we’ve learned anything from the market reactions to the plant announcements, it’s that price volatility should be a focus for producers in all segments of the cattle industry,” Weaber says. “Active risk management to preserve operation equity should remain a priority.”

Your Next Reads:
Navigate Market Volatility with Risk Management Strategies

Beef’s Future: Consumer Demand, Risk Management and the Path to Continued Profitability

Buffalo Bills Beefing Up: QB Josh Allen's Hearty Gift to His Protectors

Tue, 23 Dec 2025 16:55:30 GMT

This Christmas, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen delivered a gift that’s sure to keep his offensive line well fueled: a generous supply of protein-packed beef.

While social media feeds overflow with holiday gift boasts, Allen’s substantial and thoughtful present for his protectors stands out.

Josh Allen and Hailee Steinfeld Gifted His Offensive Lineman a 'Quarter of a Cow' for the Holidays https://t.co/gF56mJ2Xyg
— People (@people) December 22, 2025

According to People magazine , Allen and his wife, Hailee Steinfeld, gifted his O-line a quarter of beef. Considering the Bills’ “everybody eats” mantra on offense, it seems like the perfect present as the team prepares for the playoffs.

@alyshamonet_ Alec’s Oline gift this year from our qb1!! Always so thoughtful & we couldn’t be more grateful! 🫶🏽#nfl #holidays #lovelanguage #healthandwellness #bills ♬ original sound - Alysha Monet S. Anderson

Alysha Monet, wife of Bills offensive tackle Alec Anderson, shared a TikTok video discussing the gift, captioned: “Alec’s Oline gift this year from our QB1!! Always so thoughtful & we couldn’t be more grateful!”

In the video, Monet picks up each item in the bag to show her followers the different cuts of meat Allen gifted them.

Showing four shopping bags, Anderson helps her narrate. “I feel like this is something we’ve always wanted to get for ourselves,” she says. “We actually had to go and buy a deep freezer from the store right now just to put all this meat in, but we’re so grateful to Hailee and Josh. They are the sweetest people ever and this is such a good, functional gift.”

Quarterbacks giving gifts to the players who protect them most is nothing new. In addition to the quarter of beef, Allen and Steinfeld gave each lineman a Schwank Infrared Grill.

Reports reveal Allen and other quarterbacks spare no expense for their linemen this time of year. Previous presents from Allen in the past include custom Bills scooters, Callaway golf clubs, along with private golf lessons and a Traeger smoker grill.

What Does Talk of $10 Ground Beef Mean to Producers?

Wed, 19 Nov 2025 20:00:36 GMT

While the core fundamentals of the beef industry remain unchanged, the overall environment has become much more volatile and uncertain in recent weeks.

Omaha Steaks CEO Nate Rempe, in a recent interview on Fox Business’ Mornings with Maria , predicts ground beef prices will reach $10 per pound by the third quarter of 2026.

In response to that prediction, ag economist Glynn Tonsor from Kansas State University reports, according to September Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS), the national average price for ground beef was $6.32 per pound. He explains while niche markets such as Omaha Steaks could see some products priced at $10, the national average is unlikely to reach that level within the next three years.

Tonsor emphasizes Omaha Steaks serves a distinct customer base, and their prices should not be generalized to represent all U.S. ground beef prices.

Lance Zimmerman, senior animal protein analyst with Rabo AgriFinance, adds: “It’s possible, but that’d be pretty wild. Is it probable? I would say no, based on history.”

He explains his stance also referring to the BLS historic data, although prices spiked radically during the pandemic posting the highest year-over-year increases on record, that event only resulted in a 34% jump, far short of the 54% increase needed to see $10 ground beef by the third quarter of 2026.

What Does All This Beef Chatter Cause?

The beef industry has found itself in national headlines since Sept. 15. The industry has been experiencing chaos in the markets since President Donald Trump made statements regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to investigate meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

“The base fundamentals of the industry have not changed in the last four weeks,” Tonsor says. “The volatility, the noise in the business environment, has definitely elevated.”

Read more about the industry chaos today:
Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Zimmerman explains while political sound bites and promises to lower food prices draw media attention, they do not directly affect the day-to-day decisions by producers who remain focused on long-term business fundamentals.

“At the end of the day, the average cow-calf producer, stocker operator and feedlot operator, have a business to run, and all of this noise doesn’t change much surrounding their day-to-day business,” Zimmerman summarizes. “The challenge is the president is making this a very regular soundbite, as is the rest of his administration. And, cyclically, there is no quick fix.”

Zimmerman shares his frustration regarding the broader impact of political statements, especially presidential promises to bring down food prices. He explains that, historically, the only way to significantly reduce food costs is to enter a recession. The catch, he argues, is that neither administration nor producers desire such an outcome. This underscores the conflict between policy rhetoric and on-the-ground market drivers.

Tonsor adds media attention and dramatic statements, such as $10 ground beef, often do not accurately represent broad market reality.

“I’m trying to use this as an excuse to educate on why prices are higher; [it’s] not just because cow numbers are down,” Tonsor explains. “When we just jump to the number of cows, we don’t give credit to the demand story that the public wants beef.”

Read more about beef demand:
Consumers Confirm Protein is In: Meat Continues to Have Its Moment on the Plate
How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

One question on the mind of producers and industry stakeholders is if the political and media attention will heighten consumer awareness to beef prices and cause a change in buying behavior.

Tonsor says, so far, there is little impact from these headlines on consumer demand.

“It’s too early to tell if there’s been a consumer demand impact from all the chatter,” he says. “My best guess is little-to-no direct impact.”

Both analysts agree beef prices are fueled by demand. Tonsor notes consumers are willing to pay the retail price of beef today because of their continued demand for taste and protein. He points out if public demand for beef stays strong, prices will remain robust.

“The public still thinks taste is the most important thing when they make a decision,” he summarizes.

Slowing Down Rebuilding

“This uncertainty has wrecked the market potential in Chicago in the short run,” Zimmerman explains. “But the timing of it also couldn’t be worse for the cow-calf producer who’s making those fall retention decisions right now.”

Both analysts agree the heightened uncertainty is making producers more hesitant to invest or expand their herds, which will lead to slower industry investment and herd growth.

Read more about herd rebuilding:
Rebuilding the U.S. Cow Herd: A Calculated Climb

“I think we’re going to slow investment compared to even a month ago, just because those that are anxious or don’t like uncertainty are a little more cautious today than they were a month ago,” Tonsor explains. “Those that are extra uncomfortable with elevated uncertainty, like not knowing what the trade environment might be, it’s going to give them pause. So, they will be less likely to hold back a heifer and expand. They’ll be less likely to modernize the feedyard. They’ll be less likely to do whatever that capital investment was.”

Will Tarriff Reduction Impact Prices?

Late last week, Trump signed an executive order that modifies the scope of the reciprocal tariffs he first announced on April 2. The executive order now exempts several agricultural products from tariffs, including beef.

Zimmerman explains Brazil’s beef processors and beef exporters would have gained the most if the country’s additional tariffs were removed by the U.S. The previous rate was an additional 50% tariff on top of the 26.4% tariff that exists on all imports from countries without a free-trade agreement on beef after the first 65,005 MT each calendar year. However, the Brazil tariffs are structured under two separate practices. Ten percent are reciprocal tariffs, and the additional 40% that came in August are through another process.

“The latest removal of reciprocal tariffs on beef effectively changes Brazil’s country-specific import tax from 50% to 40%,” he explains. “This is not going to significantly change the competitive landscape for global exporters shipping into the U.S. market. It is still incredibly tough for Brazil to compete with Australia, New Zealand and other major lean beef importers in the U.S. market.”

Tonsor adds reducing tariffs could marginally lower beef prices for consumers, but the effect would not be dramatic. He points out the U.S. produces the majority of its own beef (more than 80%), so changes in import tariffs have a limited impact on domestic prices.

He says recent record import months only moved the import share from around 15% to slightly more than 20%. Tonsor expects the net effect of the tariff reduction on beef prices to be fairly small, potentially less than a 5%-to-10% change, and that overall, strong domestic demand will continue to be the main driver of prices.

Challenge to Producers

Tonsor says his advice to producers is to steady the ship.

He encourages a steady approach, suggesting those comfortable with uncertainty should move forward as planned, while others might pause on major decisions. Ultimately, he expects less herd expansion and more caution among producers, even as demand fundamentals continue to provide underlying strength for the industry.

Tonsor says while general industry investment and expansion might slow, producers who move forward despite the uncertainty could be rewarded, especially if fewer others do the same. His overall message is for producers to carefully weigh their risk tolerance and business needs before making significant changes and not to let the current noise distract from their long-term goals.

Despite recent market corrections, Zimmerman says strong demand and cyclical tightness mean profitability remains high for most producers. He shares these six strategies for producers to consider looking forward:

Consider Strategic Heifer Retention. He advises producers to begin or continue retaining heifers, even if only enough to replace natural attrition in the cow herd, as a step toward gradual herd rebuilding in tight supply conditions.
Use Price Protection Tools. He emphasizes the importance of locking in profit floors using risk management tools such as Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) insurance , futures or options contracts, encouraging producers not to wait for the highest prices but to protect profitability when opportunities arise.
Maintain Long-Term Perspective. Despite recent market corrections, he urges producers to keep a long-term view; demand is strong, and rebuilding will be slow, so planning for sustained higher prices is key.
Stay Vigilant and Informed. He recommends producers remain watchful for profit opportunities in the market, be proactive in their strategic decisions and stay informed about both market trends and policy changes.
Be Cautious, Not Reactionary. He suggests not overreacting to political headlines or media narratives, emphasizing that day-to-day operational fundamentals should guide decisions rather than short-term noise.
Prepare for Continued Volatility. He encourages resilience and adaptation strategies as the industry faces persistent uncertainty from trade policy and disease threats such as New World screwworm .

Your Next Read: Did the Administration’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices Wreck the Bull Run in the Cattle Market?

Beef Industry Chaos: Tight Supplies, Strong Consumer Demand and Political Interference

Wed, 12 Nov 2025 20:04:16 GMT

The current state of the cattle market and beef industry has been described as chaotic. “There’s chaos in cattle,” as Chip Flory, AgriTalk host, put it.

The industry turmoil follows recent statements made by President Donald Trump regarding the need to lower beef prices as well as his request for the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef.

Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University, affirms these are unique times, emphasizing while political factors have always indirectly influenced agriculture, it’s unprecedented for the cattle and beef markets to be at the center of direct political debate.

On a recent AgriTalk segment, Peel points out the inherent biological and production constraints of the cattle industry — particularly the fixed timeline to raise cattle — make quick fixes impossible. Both Flory and Peel stress that no political policy can shorten the cattle production process; any effective supply response requires patience and long-term adjustment.

Packers Under Fire

The concept of industry consolidation and foreign packer ownership has long drawn scrutiny with frequent government investigations. Peel says highly concentrated industries such as beef packing have been targets for skepticism and regulatory attention for over a century, to the point suspicion of packers is almost “a cultural thing” within segments of the industry.

He characterizes the latest call as another attempt to target convenient scapegoats rather than addressing deeper systemic realities of supply and demand.

“The reason we have the industry structure we do is because the economies of size and cost efficiencies are such a powerful economic force,” Peels explains.

He confirms researchers have long studied market power, and while concentration does have a small negative price impact for producers, the efficiency and cost-savings from large-scale firms more than compensate. These benefits, he says, keep cattle prices higher for producers and beef prices lower for consumers than they would be with a less efficient structure.

Dissecting the economics of margin markets Peels explains why price changes in different parts of the beef supply chain — cow-calf, feeders, packers and retailers — don’t move in lockstep. He uses a “bungee cord” analogy to illustrate the complex, dynamic and time-lagged interactions linking cattle prices at the farm with retail beef prices.

“All cattle prices and beef prices are ultimately connected, but they’re not connected with a stick or a chain,” Peel summarizes.” They’re connected with a bungee cord. There’s just an enormous amount of dynamics in this thing.”

Regarding the foreign ownership debate, Peel says there is no evidence foreign ownership alters packer behavior within the U.S. marketplace. He emphasizes foreign firms have made large investments in U.S. facilities and continue to operate them by the same market logic that would govern domestic ownership.

He also points out it is unclear who else would be in a position to make such significant investments if these foreign companies were not involved. This pragmatic view suggests the ownership issue might be less important than is commonly believed, at least concerning everyday operations and market outcomes.

A Lot Hinges on Rebuilding the Cow Herd

In his latest article, “ All Bets are Off ,” Peel says: “The latest edition in the torrent of recent political attentions directed at the cattle and beef industry includes allegations of market manipulation against the beef packing industry. Beef packers are the one segment that has been most negatively impacted in the current market, incurring huge losses due to poor margins and limited cattle supplies.”

(Meat Institute)

Peel reports packers have been losing enormous amounts of money for about the past 18 to 24 months. According to the Meat Institute, packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a negative $165.96 per head packer margin.

“There’s just simply not enough cattle for them to operate at cost efficient capacities,” Peel explains.

This negative trend was anticipated — the reduced supply of cattle has made it difficult for packing plants to function at cost-efficient capacities, leading to the accumulation of operating losses. Peel points out the combination of low unit margins and insufficient cattle supplies challenges the economic viability of packers, further illustrating the complexity of the current environment.

This decline in inventory is not the result of a single factor but is driven by several years of drought and other market pressures. It is clear high beef and cattle prices are a result of these tight supplies and, according to Peel, these high prices are likely to persist for several years. The industry simply cannot turn around production levels quickly, and it will take time — a matter of years, not months — for conditions to normalize.

“Using logic that only works in the office of a politician, packers are supposedly wielding unacceptable market power while paying record high cattle prices and artificially raising beef prices … but not enough to avoid losing a couple hundred dollars on every animal they process — certainly many millions of dollars,” Peel says. “If beef packers had any significant ability to exercise market power, I am certain that we would not have record high cattle prices and packers would not be losing money.”

Peel suggests the federal government attacks on beef packers are aided and supported by a vocal minority of the cattle industry and a few sympathetic politicians who view packers as a perennial villain and always worthy of attack anytime the opportunity is presented.

“The timing of such attacks this time is particularly puzzling as dismantling the packing industry would certainly jeopardize current record high cattle prices and the best economic returns most producers have ever enjoyed,” Peels says. “I guess some cowboys just can’t stand prosperity.”

R-CALF CEO Bill Bullard says the cattle market is fundamentally broken citing years of an inverse relationship between falling cattle prices and increasing retail beef prices when the only ingredient in beef is cattle. Read more about his perspective.

Patience not Politics

Beef and cattle prices, Peel notes, are historically high, a result of industry-wide low cattle inventory. Rebuilding the nation’s cow herd will be a long, slow process, keeping prices elevated for an extended period. And Peel says there is no definitive evidence producers are saving heifers to start the rebuilding process.

“2025 may prove to be technically the cyclical low, but 2026 is going to be barely bigger, if it is, and no growth in 2026 and probably none in 2027 ... it’s 2028 into 2029 before that turns into increased beef production,” Peel predicts.

He summarizes neither regulatory nor political action will can speed up the rebuilding process. It will take years of concerted effort, market healing and stability before the industry can expect a meaningful rebound in herd numbers and production — a reality that requires patience across the industry.

“There is absolutely nothing anybody can do to make beef prices go down, or cattle prices, other than maybe tear up the industry completely,” Peels says. “And if we tear up the industry, it’ll make cattle prices go down, but it won’t make beef prices go down. It’ll make beef prices go even higher for consumers and the only way to fix this is to give the industry time to rebuild, and that’s going to take two to four years if we ever get started.”

He says a majority of cattle producers understand the beef industry is extremely complex and all segments are critical and essential.

“Though the outcome of current political actions is uncertain, the potential for long-term harm to the industry is substantial,” Peel says. “Anytime politics trumps economics, the strong supply and demand fundamentals that have determined the outlook for the industry to this point become irrelevant. Expectations for prices and production going forward are now completely clouded…therefore… all bets are off.”

Your Next Read: You Be The Judge: The Big Bad Beef Packers Are On Trial

Trump Asks DOJ to Investigate Meatpackers over Beef Prices

Fri, 07 Nov 2025 21:41:18 GMT

President Donald Trump says he wants the Department of Justice to immediately begin an investigation into meatpackers for driving up the price of beef. The directive marks a turnabout from previous statements about U.S. ranchers making good profits and their impact on the price of beef at the grocery store, which the administration has said remains too high.

In a statement on his Truth Social site, the president calls for “An investigation into the meat packing companies who are driving up the price of beef through illicit collusion, price fixing and price manipulation.”

He says American ranchers are being blamed for what is being done by majority-foreign-owned meatpackers.

“[The packers] artificially inflate prices and jeopardize the security of our nation’s food supply,” writes Trump. “Action must be taken immediately to protect consumers, combat illegal monopolies and ensure these corporations are not criminally profiting at the expense of the American people.”

Attorney General Pam Bondi responding to the post saying the DOJ investigation is already underway.

”My Antitrust Division, led by [Abigail Slater, Assistant Attorney General at the Department of Justice Antitrust Division], has taken the lead in partnership with our friend [Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins] at USDA,” she says.

Our investigation is underway! My Antitrust Division led by @AAGSlater has taken the lead in partnership with our friend @SecRollins at @USDA. https://t.co/KP0zlO9RQg
— Attorney General Pamela Bondi (@AGPamBondi) November 7, 2025

Rollins, also responded to Trump’s social post, thanking him for standing up for America’s farmers, ranchers and consumers.

“For far too long, hardworking ranching families have been squeezed by massive foreign-owned meatpacking corporations manipulating prices and driving family operations out of business,” Rollins wrote. “These global monopolies profit while everyday Americans pay more at the grocery store and rural communities struggle to survive.”

Rollins, in her post, calls for transparency and accountability that lead to a fair market for beef producers.

THANK YOU, @POTUS for standing up for America’s farmers, ranchers, and consumers! 🇺🇸

For far too long, hardworking ranching families have been squeezed by massive foreign-owned meatpacking corporations manipulating prices and driving family operations out of business. These… https://t.co/qiftHNtA1q
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) November 7, 2025

“Thank you, President Trump, for fighting for the heartland, for our farmers and ranchers, and for standing up to the corrupt forces that threaten our food security and American independence,” Rollins said.

According to Reuters , “Ranchers have long complained about consolidation in the packing industry, where Tyson, Cargill, JBS and National Beef Packing Co. together control around 80% of the market.”

Industry Reaction

The Meat Institute released a statement following President Trump’s comments:

“Despite high consumer prices for beef, beef packers have been losing money because the price of cattle is at record highs,” said Meat Institute President and CEO Julie Anna Potts. “For more than a year, beef packers have been operating at a loss due to a tight cattle supply and strong demand.

“The beef industry is heavily regulated, and market transactions are transparent. The government’s own data from USDA confirms that the beef packing sector is experiencing catastrophic losses and experts predict this will continue into 2026.

“U.S. beef processors welcome a fact-based discussion about beef affordability and how best to meet the needs of American consumers, who are the industry’s most important stakeholders.

“Beef packers rely on cattle producers and cattle producers rely on beef packers. The entire beef value chain is strongest when supply is balanced by demand. Beef packers remain committed to ensuring safe, delicious, and nutrient dense beef remains affordable to American families who rely on its nourishment. We welcome the President and his team to visit our members’ beef facilities, both large and small, to witness firsthand the pride, skill, and dedication they bring to their work every single day.”

For more on beef and cattle market conditions go here.

United States Cattlemen’s Association shared their thoughts on social media , “Yes, let’s keep American ranchers out of the crosshairs. But, USCA will continue to state that beef prices in the grocery store are not too high. Prices are a direct reflection of consumer demand — consumers want US beef.

“Ranchers continue to show resilience and dedication, battling drought, inflation, and unpredictable pressures daily, yet still deliver top-quality, safe beef for families across the country.”

National Farmer’s Union also shared these thoughts : “We agree— American ranchers aren’t to blame for high beef prices.”

R-CALF USA CEO Bill Bullard issued the following statement in response to the announcement.

“We greatly appreciate President Trump’s announcement that he’s directed the Department of Justice to investigate the beef supply chain to determine if there are any violations of our fair competition laws or antitrust laws.

“There has long been a disconnect between cattle prices and beef prices, and we believe this is evidence of market failure. We welcome this investigation to ensure that cattle producers receive competitive prices for their cattle, and that consumers pay prices set by a competitive market rather than a monopolistic one.”

Previous Retail Price Comments

Trump previously posted : “The Cattle ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% tariff on Brazil.”

Donald J. Trump Truth Social 10.22.25 12:42 PM EST

The Cattle Ranchers, who I love, don’t understand that the only reason they are doing so well, for the first time in decades, is because I put Tariffs on cattle coming into the United States, including a 50% Tariff on Brazil. If…
— Commentary Donald J. Trump Posts From Truth Social (@TrumpDailyPosts) October 22, 2025

Following the post, the National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA) made a post on Facebook in response and also released a statement on the president’s steps to undercut U.S. cattle producers: “In a misguided effort to lower the price of beef in grocery stores, President Trump said he plans to increase the volume of beef being imported from Argentina . Efforts to manipulate markets only risk damaging the livelihoods of American cattlemen and women, while doing little to impact the price consumers are paying at the grocery store.”

“The National Cattlemen’s Beef Association and its members cannot stand behind the President while he undercuts the future of family farmers and ranchers by importing Argentinian beef in an attempt to influence prices,” said NCBA CEO Colin Woodall. “It is imperative that President Trump and Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins let the cattle markets work.

“The U.S. already faces a deep trade imbalance with Argentina, one that is made worse by the President’s plan,” he continued. “During the past five years, Argentina has shipped beef valued at more than $800 million to the U.S., while purchasing only $7 million of U.S. beef. Furthermore, Argentina is a nation with a long history of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD), and USDA has not completed the necessary steps to ensure Argentina can guarantee the safety of the products being shipped here, further endangering America’s cattle herd.

“If President Trump is truly an ally of America’s cattle producers, we call on him to abandon this effort to manipulate markets and focus instead on the promised New World screwworm facilities in Texas; making additional investments that protect the domestic cattle herd from foreign animal diseases such as FMD; and addressing regulatory burdens, such as delisting of the gray wolf and addressing the scourge of black vultures,” Woodall said, concluding the statement.

Your Next Read: Unpacking the Beef: Report Clarifies Cattle Market Realities, Packer Challenges & Trade Tensions

Unpacking the Beef: Report Clarifies Cattle Market Realities, Packer Challenges & Trade Tensions

Fri, 31 Oct 2025 20:17:59 GMT

Since President Donald Trump’s comments last week, a lot has been discussed on social media and at the coffee shop about increasing beef imports from Argentina, beef retail prices, the cattle market and beef processing concentration.

“It is complicated,” the Meat Institute posted on LinkedIn regarding the current state of the beef industry and the dialog about beef prices. In response, the Meat Institute released a nine-page document — The Reality of Beef and Cattle Markets — addressing import trends, market conditions, industry concentration, ground beef production, policy proposals and international trade challenges.

Key discussion points include:

1. Argentine Beef Imports

The report summarizes increasing beef imports from Argentina is unlikely to significantly lower ground beef prices in the U.S. If Argentina fills the proposed 80,000 metric ton quota, it will only increase its share of U.S. beef imports from 2% to 5%, which is unlikely to significantly impact retail or restaurant beef prices.

Argentina primarily exports grass-fed frozen lean trim for ground beef production, with limited impact on overall U.S. beef imports. In 2024, Argentina was the eighth-largest beef supplier to the U.S., exporting 32,798 metric tons, while the U.S. imported 1.56 million metric tons overall.

2. Beef and Cattle Market Conditions

The report summarizes current market conditions with these six statements:

Cattle producers are enjoying record prices, while beef packers are suffering under negative margins.
The shortage of market-ready cattle continues, adding further pressure to packers’ margins, which first dropped to negative values in September 2024.
Packing plant utilization rates have dipped, and some facilities are scaling back operations, including reduced shifts and shortened workweeks. Uncertain immigration policy moving forward can have an impact here as well.
Trade policy uncertainty from proposed tariffs adds to the cost pressures on the cattle market.
Additionally, foreign animal disease import restrictions — particularly on Mexican feeder cattle — are another contributing factor to increasing costs.
Consumer demand has remained resilient with improved beef quality. However, prospects for elevated cattle prices and the beef those cattle yield remain directly tied to the extent end-user consumer demand can remain robust.

“Cattle prices were at record levels for most of 2023, surpassing the 2014-2015 previous record highs as the cattle herd rebuilt from the previous low points of the cattle cycle,” the report says. “Through 2024, prices continued at new record levels and increased further into 2025, exceeding an average of $242 cwt. in August, the highest nominal price on record.

“Cash prices have declined to $232 cwt. in the first two weeks of October, but futures contracts are at record levels, even after adjusted for inflation. The previous highs in October 2015 would be $222 cwt. in today’s dollars, a full $10 cwt. below the current prices as of Oct. 14.”

The report goes on to say: “This has put U.S. beef packers under financial pressure. Packer margins slipped into the red in September 2024. Through the week ending Oct. 4, 2025, packer margins were a negative $126.50 per head, up slightly from a year earlier at a negative $125.65 per head, according to Sterling Profit Tracker. The outlook for the year is a packer margin of negative $165.96 per head.”

(Meat Institute)

For 2025, cow-calf producer margins are estimated to be up 122.3% from 2024 and 180.67% from 2023 to $900 per head. Feedlot margins are estimated to be up 351% from 2024 to $514.33 per head. But packer margins have declined 120% from already negative margins in 2024 and are estimated to be down 269% from 2023.

“With fewer market-ready cattle available, plant utilization rates have dipped and some facilities are scaling back operations, including reduced shifts and shortened workweeks. Packing plants were operating at 77% capacity for the week of Oct. 4, down from 85% a year ago. Uncertain immigration policy moving forward can have an impact here as well,” the report summarizes.

(Meat Institute)

The share of the retail beef dollar also indicates producers have been faring well. The producers’ share of the retail beef dollar was 55% in August 2025 and has averaged 54% so far in 2025. The packers’ share has dropped from 13% to 5%, reflecting the negative packer margins.

Download the Meat Institute’s full Cattle and Beef Market Update .

3. Concentration in the Beef Packing Sector

“The U.S. meat packing sector is a dynamic, resilient and highly competitive industry with a long history of providing an abundant supply of high quality, safe and affordable products to American consumers and serving as a vital economic engine that supports America’s farmers and ranchers,” the report says.

(Meat Institute)

The top four beef packers in the U.S. account for the purchase and slaughter of about 81% of all fed cattle in the U.S., according to the most recent report from the USDA’s Packers and Stockyards Division. But those fed cattle make up only about 78% of the Federally Inspected cattle slaughtered in the U.S. The other 22% is made up of cows, both dairy and beef and some bulls.

“Much of the rhetoric about beef industry concentration implies that consolidation in the beef packing sector is ongoing and that market power is becoming increasingly concentrated. That is not the case,” the report says. “The four-firm concentration ratio in the beef cattle industry has not changed appreciably over the past 30 years. According to USDA, in 1994, for example, that ratio was 82%, compared with 81% today.”

4. Ground Beef

Ground beef accounts for approximately 50% of U.S. beef consumption. Imported lean trim complements U.S. beef production from cull cows, helping maintain affordability without directly competing with domestic beef.

“Without imported lean trim, more highly marbled quality U.S. beef would be used, and ground beef would be more expensive,” the report explains.

5. Policy Issues

Despite record cattle prices and the smallest cattle herd in 75 years, there are increasing calls for mandatory country-of-origin (COOL) labeling for beef.

“The mandatory COOL experiment was implemented and it failed,” the report says. “From 2002 through Congress repealing the law in 2015, we learned that mandatory COOL adds massive compliance costs — the industry incurred implementation costs of approximately $1.5 billion, plus $200 million in additional annual compliance costs thereafter — yet by USDA’s own analysis, it did not increase consumer demand. Mandatory COOL simply adds cost, not value.”

On Jan. 1, 2026, USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service will begin implementing its voluntary COOL rule.

“Let the rule and the free market work: if consumers demand ‘Product of the U.S.’ labels on their meat, then processors can and will provide it,” the report says.

For more info, download the Meat Institute’s mCOOL paper .

The reports also explains proposals like the PRIME Act and interstate shipment of state-inspected meat are seen as threats to food safety and international trade relationships.

“The concept in the PRIME Act is even worse,” the report explains. “Under Rep. Thomas Massie’s legislation, custom exempt meat establishments would be allowed to slaughter animals, process the meat and sell it directly to consumers or to restaurants, hotels or grocery stores within the state, without any inspection. It is a recipe for foodborne illnesses, and consumers in restaurants and hotels would have no idea they would be eating uninspected meat (and grocery store consumers would only know if they look for and can’t find the USDA inspection symbol). Food safety should be the top priority, not something legislated away.”

6. China Beef Exports

The Meat Institute urges action as China blocks more than 415 U.S. beef facilities from exporting.

“In 2024, China was the U.S.’s third largest market, by value, for beef, at over $1.5 billion,” the paper summarizes. “The strong beef exports to China were thanks to President Trump’s leadership in securing the U.S.-China Phase One Agreement during his first term. However, since the beginning of 2025 — and in contravention of the terms of the Phase One Agreement — China has failed to renew the registrations for more than 415 U.S. beef establishments, making them ineligible to export to China. This is a massive market loss for the U.S. that Brazil and other countries have been eager to fill.”

$4 Feeder Cattle: Dream or Reality?

Mon, 27 Oct 2025 19:37:12 GMT

As October draws to a close, U.S. officials are reportedly going to meet with Mexican counterparts this week to talk about reopening the border . The possibility of trade resuming, coupled with President Donald Trump’s comments on lowering beef prices and Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins’ announcement to “fortify the beef industry,” sent the cattle market spiraling in recent days.

Despite the downturn, the fundamentals haven’t changed: reduced supply and strong consumer demand are fueling record-high market prices.

“The reduction in available supply and robust beef demand to-date has clearly provided price support,” says Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University professor of agricultural economics. “Tied to that is the biggest risk in my opinion — beef demand. Anything that erodes beef demand strength, most likely macroeconomic and consumer income in nature in my opinion, will put downward pressure on cattle of all weight classes.”

Tonsor says he never gave $4 much thought until the past couple of years.

“If we adjust for inflation or consider production costs, $4 feeders aren’t what they used to be. It takes $4-plus feeders to generate the net returns we used to get from lower prices,” he explains. “These are profitable prices for ranchers — and it’s about time.”

Tonsor predicts feeder cattle prices to continue under current conditions but does not predict increased profitability due to increasing operating costs.

“The 2025 bull market has been exceptional by every measure,” summarizes Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness senior beef industry analyst. “500-lb. steer prices are now more than 50% higher than last year, and 800-lb. steer prices are nearly there at just under a 50% price increase year-over-year.”

As a frame of reference, the CME feeder cattle cash index, which captures the average 700 lb. to 899 lb. steer price, averaged $367.08/cwt. the week of Oct. 20. This fall, livestock auction markets across the country have reported lightweight feeder cattle surpassing the $4 mark.

“I think it is entirely possible for feeder cattle to get to $4,” says Don Close, Terrain Ag senior animal protein analyst. “However, I think it will be late summer and fall 2026.”

According to Close, there are three critical components for feeder prices today:
1. Mexican border reopening
2. What disruptions could come to the beef-on-dairy supply
3. Feed prices

“Of that list, Mexico border closure is the real wild card,” he explains. “I don’t see a measurable disruption to beef-on-dairy or feed costs in the near term.”

When Will We Hit the High?

Oklahoma State University’s Derrell Peel, Extension livestock marketing specialist, explains the highest average prices are likely a year or more after heifer retention begins.

“We don’t have any confirmation heifer retention has started to any significant level in 2025,” Peel says. “We have already pushed off any signs of herd rebuilding by one to two years longer than I earlier expected, and we are looking at extending it another year if heifer retention does not start in the fourth quarter. Because the response has been much slower this time than previous cattle cycles, prices have certainly gone higher than I would have expected a year or two ago — though I did expect record-high prices.”

Peel predicts the next expansion phase will be different than the 2014-19 expansion cycle.

“The 2014-19 herd expansion was historically rapid, this current one is historically slow,” he says. “It is a combination of a lengthy list of factors that combine to make this a slow response, and it looks like it will remain a slow, lengthy process.”

Close shares his thoughts on the complexities of the current cycle:

Drought and economic stress. “As an industry, we didn’t fully recognize the severity of the drought as well as the degree of economic stress to the sector,” he says. “The fallout of the 2014 to 2015 price drop is still fresh on producers’ minds, so they have been using the prices of the past three years to get balance sheets in order, pay down debt and now are starting to make capital improvements.”
Producer age. “The average age of cow owners is a factor, so many have used current prices to liquidate and retire,” he says.
Female costs. “Replacement female prices that range from $3,000 to $5,000 restricts and scares some away,” he says. “That is only compounded with the addition of current interest rates.”
Cow size. The escalation in average cow size limits how many cows can run on a given unit of pasture.“
Land. “You hear producers make comments on the difficulty to find additional pasture in order to expand,” he says.

“This cycle has been driven or limited from a combination of all the above,” he says. “Our view is we need to rebuild by 2 to 2.5 million head. Keep in mind, given the escalation in carcass weights, we don’t need as many cattle to produce an equal quantity of beef.”

Close adds his thoughts regarding the impact of last week.

“Given all of the turmoil over the past week it is going to be even more difficult to trigger expansion,” he says. “There is no work around for destroyed producer confidence. I think current market action will further delay expansion.”

Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor Predicts Bull Market to Continue

Cattle prices are expected to stay high well into 2026, according to the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor from Farm Journal. Nearly half of agricultural economists surveyed (47%) believe the current bull market in cattle could continue another 19 to 24 months, while another 27% say it could last 13 to 18 months. Only 7% expect prices to peak within the next six months.

“This run isn’t over,” one economist wrote. “At current prices we will see no or little herd expansion.” Another adds the fundamental supply side remains tight: “Clear signals that domestic beef production is increasing may be the key catalyst for a market top.”

“This is a nature of biology to some extent, it takes a while once you even start to retain a heifer for that heifer to produce a calf that then becomes a feeder calf that then becomes a fed calf that then becomes beef at the grocery store itself,” says Ben Brown, an Extension economist with the University of Missouri. “I don’t think we’ve seen necessarily the top of this cattle market yet.”

Even if cattle prices are close to seeing a top, that doesn’t mean prices will crash, he adds.

October Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound)

What Could End the Rally?

When asked what might trigger a peak in cattle prices, responses to the Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor were mixed — but demand destruction and herd rebuilding topped the list. Economists were asked to choose between five options, including:

The reopening of the U.S./Mexico border to Mexican feeder cattle imports
U.S. economic concerns with fallout from trade tensions with China
Removal of tariffs that would resume high levels of beef imports from Brazil
Demand destruction in the U.S. market

One respondent notes, “All of the above are relevant, but clear signals that domestic beef production is increasing may be more important.” Others pointed to a slowing U.S. economy or producers “beginning to hold back replacement heifers” as potential turning points.

“I have no idea what creates the top, but at current prices, we will see no/little herd expansion,” adds yet another economist.

“Beef Prices Can Stay High Longer Than Most Expect”

Economists agree the U.S. cattle market remains fundamentally strong, supported by limited supplies, robust export demand and solid retail prices. However, they caution the same forces keeping prices high — tight herds, high feed costs and inflation — could eventually cool the rally.

As one economist sums it up: “Beef prices can stay high longer than most expect — until consumers finally say ‘enough.’ That’s when we’ll see the turn.”

Trump Says His Administration is Working on Lowering Beef Prices

Fri, 17 Oct 2025 13:59:26 GMT

U.S. President Donald Trump said on Friday that his administration was working to lower the price of beef in the country.

“We are working on beef, and I think we have a deal on beef,” Trump told reporters at the White House.

The price of beef is “higher than we want it, and that’s going to be coming down pretty soon too. We did something,” Trump added, without elaborating.

Beef prices have climbed to record highs after cattle ranchers slashed their herds due to a years-long drought in the western U.S. that dried up lands used for grazing and raised feeding costs.

By the beginning of the year, the herd had dwindled to 86.7 million cattle, the smallest number for the time period since 1951, according to U.S. government data.

The Meat Institute, which represents meatpacking companies, said it needed to learn more about Trump’s plans to lower prices.

The administration of former President Joe Biden blamed meatpacking companies for rising food costs.

Last week, processors Tyson Foods TSN.N and Cargill agreed to pay a combined $87.5 million to settle a federal lawsuit brought by consumers who accused the companies of conspiring to inflate beef prices by restricting supply. The companies have denied wrongdoing.

Meatpackers such as Tyson have lost money in their beef businesses as tight cattle supplies force them to pay more to buy animals to slaughter.

Supplies tightened further this year after USDA halted imports of Mexican livestock to keep out a damaging pest spreading in Mexico. Mexican cattle were formerly imported to be fattened in U.S. feedlots and slaughtered in U.S. processing plants.

Tariffs that Trump imposed on Brazilian goods have also slowed U.S. imports of Brazilian beef that was mixed with U.S. supplies to make hamburger meat.

Recently, some U.S. ranchers have begun taking initial steps to start rebuilding the herd . However, it takes about two years before beef output rises after they make the first moves to expand because that is how long it takes to raise full-grown cattle, ranchers said.

Last month, U.S. Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said the USDA in mid-October would provide details on a plan to revitalize the decimated herd that would not include payments to producers.

(Reporting by Trevor Hunnicutt and Costas Pitas and Tom Polansek; Writing by Ismail Shakil, Editing by Franklin Paul and Diane Craft)

Your Next Read: Cattle Crash on Trump’s Plan to Lower Beef Prices: Row Crops Rally

How Many Minutes Does a Consumer Have to Work to Buy A Pound of Ground Beef?

Thu, 16 Oct 2025 18:02:49 GMT

It’s a balancing act — consumer demand, economic challenges and beef pricing.

“The consumer has been saying I’m willing to work a little bit more to pay for that pound of beef,” says Lance Zimmerman, RaboResearch Food & Agribusiness senior beef industry analyst. “That’s a positive demand story.”

Zimmerman’s analysis has found that regardless of income bracket, consumers are willing to work more minutes to afford a pound of beef.

According to Zimmerman:

Highest income earners work about 6 minutes to buy a pound of ground beef
Lowest income earners work two to three times longer — around 26 minutes
The median (middle 50%) works about 14 minutes to purchase a pound of ground beef

Zimmerman says his research suggests U.S. minutes worked to pay for a pound of USDA Choice beef or ground beef at retail might have been higher in the late 1970s or early ‘80s.

“Using an adjusted disposable personal income as a proxy, suggests the highs may have been 1979-1980, but the price points experienced in 2014-2015 would have been a close second,” he explains.

The uptrend beef demand has experienced recently is indicative of the demand growth for beef since the 1998 lows.

“It shows an increased willingness to pay from U.S. consumers in terms of minutes of labor allocation,” he explains. “This is why it is so important for the U.S. beef industry not to get hung up on a price point. They shift with income changes.”

(RaboResearch)

The USDA Choice retail beef price has been above $9/lb. since June, and the 2025 annual average will certainly be above $9/lb. At the 2015 annual highs, the average price was $6.29/lb., but income growth created opportunity for beef price increases to be substantially higher before hitting the recent highs in minutes worked for a pound of beef – either USDA Choice beef or ground beef.

“My opinion is that we need to stop saying beef is a luxury item,” Zimmerman says. “It is for a portion of the population, but for many, it’s just another price that has increased. Convert beef prices to minutes worked per lb. There is a long-run uptrend, but relative prices aren’t crazy today.”

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, has also tracked beef prices compared to hourly wages. He says when he correlates the monthly all fresh beef price to hourly wages, he found they are in lockstep.

“Yes, beef prices have escalated, but beef prices have not risen any faster than the improvement in overall hourly wage,” Close explains. “So, from the consumer’s perspective, their share of their paycheck committed to beef is essentially the same as it’s been on a comparative basis for years.”

He says the Bureau of Labor Statistics post the average hourly wage by month, for the year-to-date average hourly wage is $36.17 an hour.

“The calculations I have run are for All Fresh Beef,” Close says. “I have 14.21 minutes to buy a pound of beef. I have the numbers for pork, and comprehensive broilers as well. I believe the data. I have gone so far as to walk grocery stores and run the numbers.”

He adds the analysis looks at absolute basic commodity items.

“As soon as you start looking at any value-added products the price escalates,” Close says.

How High Can Beef Prices Survive?

“From a production standpoint, we’re continuing to check all the right boxes,” Zimmerman says. “We’re continuing to produce better, high-quality, very safe, nutritious beef. As long as we see some gains in income and a strong labor market going forward, there’s further opportunities for this beef, and cattle market by proxy, to have some additional runway.”

He predicts retail beef prices can easily be supported above $9 and probably $9.50 to $10 by the end of the year.

Two Threats to Beef Demand

“This is not a risk-free environment from a demand standpoint,” Zimmerman says. “The reason the analyst and economist community has said demand has some threats is because the threats are real.”

He outlines two key threats to consumer demand:

1. Economic Threats: He points out housing affordability, student loan debt, credit card debt and the “buy now, pay later” credit services are economic challenges facing today’s consumer.

2. Consumer Behavior Threats: These challenges include potential drop in income, recession risk and multiple financial pressures competing for consumer dollars.

Zimmerman’s message is that while these threats exist consumer demand remains resilient. He suggests the industry must monitor these potential disruptions while understanding consumers’ continued willingness to prioritize beef purchases.

Consumer Adaption

Zimmerman says consumer adaptation strategies are minimizing the stress of higher beef prices.

He explains today’s beef consumer is cooking more meals at home, increased couponing, buying more in bulk, seeks deals through shopper ads, leans toward discount retailers and a growing preference for store brands/private labels.

Consumers are shifting within the chain, rather than out of the beef supply chain, he explains.

“For example, the cost of an at-home meal has increased around $1.50/meal since 2005, but the cost of a restaurant meal has increased nearly $10/meal in that time,” he says. “So, consumers are choosing to buy more at retail and eat out less frequently. That doesn’t necessarily hurt beef as long as it remains a part of that at-home meal solution.”

Close adds three other key factors impacting consumer demand:

Protein craze. Close points out the number of “center-of-the-aisle” items that have grams of protein or protein added on the packaging. He adds consumers realize, “Beef is king as the original protein source.”
Processing efficiency and value options. “We’re doing such a good job of trimming that there’s essentially very little or zero waste,” he says. “New cuts like petite tender and Denver steak fit portion control better with the smaller households.”
The wealth effect. “If you look at the consumer wealth index and the equities market and when the housing market is strong, consumers feel the wealth effect that improves their confidence to spend money,” he explains. “Even if their salary alone, they might be in a position maybe to draw back a little bit, but those with those secondary wealth drivers going on, they just feel better about the world.”

Zimmerman summarizes today’s consumer is not choosing to substitute beef.

“As beef prices go up, all else equal, consumers don’t just default run,” Zimmerman says.

“Beef is expensive, and yes, the consumer has said it’s expensive, but worth it.”

Are We Seeing Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 19:50:44 GMT

The U.S. beef cow inventory has reached its lowest point since 1962, marking what appears to be the bottom of the current cattle cycle. Tight supply is driving the strong pricing environment beef producers are enjoying today.

“For cow-calf producers right now, things are as good as they’ve probably ever been,” says Troy Rowan, University of Tennessee assistant professor. “Even though things are really good, producers are conscientious and vigilant about potential challenges,” Rowan summarizes.

Agreeing with Rowan, South Dakota cattleman Ken Odde adds while profits are currently strong, inflation quickly erodes economic gains. He stresses the importance of risk management and diversification.

Early Signs of Herd Rebuilding?

This is the million-dollar question: Are there encouraging signs of expansion?

“The beef industry is not currently in herd expansion mode, with producers hesitant to retain heifers due to high costs and economic uncertainties,” says Dave Weaber, Terrain senior animal protein analyst.

In Drovers State of Industry Report to be released the week of Sept. 15, we breakdown the July USDA cattle inventory and cattle on feed reports. While the USDA reports showed the smallest U.S. herd in history and continuing tightening numbers on feed, analysts predict producers have not experienced the highest cattle prices, yet.

“Our national herd size has the industry at an interesting point,” Rowan says. “Prices are at all-time highs, inputs are reasonable and more cow-calf enterprises are profitable than ever. When the industrywide rebuild will happen remains up in the air, but producers are keeping in mind that the high-flying industry right now is not going to stick around forever. They’re starting to adopt new technologies, leveling up their crossbreeding programs and expand opportunities for non-cattle related income on their ranches.”

Weaber adds producers need to be intentional about herd expansion, understanding the financial implications of adding new cattle.

Beef-on-Dairy Fills the Beef Supply Gap

“The current dynamics of supply is going to be a challenge,” says Jarrod Gillig, Cargill senior vice president, managing director for beef.

Gillig summarizes the cattle industry is experiencing a critical period of transition. He doesn’t expect the cow herd to return to previous peak levels of 32 million head. Instead, he predicts the gap in supply will be filled by beef-on-dairy calves.

Nick Hardcastle, Cargill senior director of meat grading and technical specialist, explains how the beef-on-dairy calves are an upgrade to the traditional Holstein steer and the positive impact they are making on beef supply.

“Beef-on-dairy is more desirable because it helped overcome several Holstein difficulties,” he says. “Improvements include red meat yield — more meat to a consumer — as well as improved acceptance in branded programs.”

Hardcastle says the beef-on-dairy cattle are filling the supply gap by filling pens in the Plains states where feeders are needed, and they are widely accepted by feeders and packers.

Defining Future Beef Producer Success

Odde says the beef industry is not just surviving but positioning itself for significant transformation.

“Producers who remain flexible, technologically savvy and strategic in their approach will be best positioned to thrive in this changing environment,” he says.

Weaber agrees saying successful producers will be those who can adapt, manage costs effectively and align themselves with evolving market trends.

“Don’t let cost get away from you,” Weaber warns, emphasizing that “being a low-cost, high-productivity producer means you get to make money seven, eight or nine years of the cycle.”

He stresses the importance of understanding financial implications, particularly during market transitions.

“If we’re not working on the business, we can’t work in the business,” Weaber adds, summarizing his philosophy regarding producers’ need to adopt more strategic, data-driven approaches.

The State of the Beef Industry Report includes input from nearly 500 beef producers. The annual report provides information to help producers when making decisions. Click here to download the full report.

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Beef Flourishes, Grains Struggle: The Shifting Landscape of American Agriculture

Wed, 20 Aug 2025 19:27:59 GMT

Agriculture is experiencing a dramatic transformation, characterized by what Dan Basse, president of AgResource Company, calls “two sides of the fence.” On one side, grain farmers are struggling, but on the other, protein producers are thriving. While grain farmers are facing rising costs and declining revenues, the beef industry is enjoying unprecedented demand and pricing power. Beef is projected to generate $113 billion in revenue this year versus $57 billion for the entire corn crop.

“That’s how important the beef industry has become to American agriculture,” he stresses. “We in the beef industry are domestically domiciled. We can’t get enough beef today for our own domestic consumers. Beef demand is almost insatiable.”

That demand level is driving significant economic opportunity.

Basse says beef prices have reached unprecedented levels without experiencing demand reduction, driven by rising disposable incomes and changing dietary preferences. The market has not yet found a price point that will significantly impact consumption.

Here are four additional points Basse shared during the Certified Angus Beef Feeding Quality Forum:

1. Global Economic Dynamics. The global economic landscape is dramatically shifting, which in turn is reshaping agricultural trade and challenging traditional market dynamics. The world is moving from a unipolar to a multipolar economic landscape, with a significant power shift between the U.S. and China. The rise of BRICS countries is reshaping global trade, with China’s Belt and Road Initiative creating new trade zones.

2. Agricultural Trade Environment. U.S. agricultural trade is facing significant challenges, with net imports of agricultural products reaching $54 billion. The country is becoming a high-cost producer globally, and traditional export markets are shrinking. China’s reduced agricultural imports and changing global trade dynamics are creating substantial uncertainties for U.S. farmers.

“China is irreplaceable in terms of demand,” Basse says.

“We believe China’s boom is over,” he says. “They have real problems economically in China. They’ve overspent. They’ve got real trouble. As you look at their food consumption, it’s plateauing. I don’t think China is going to be a driver of global food demand anymore.”

3. Technological and Demographic Transformation. The agricultural sector is on the cusp of a major transformation driven by technology and demographic shifts. With the average farmer age of 67.3 years, Basse says the industry is preparing for a significant ownership and operational transition.

Emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence, autonomous farming and robotics are expected to play a crucial role in addressing labor shortages and managing agricultural production.

“I believe we’re going to have companies like Deere send in tractors — robotically and autonomously — to farm our land,” Basse says.

4. Consumer Demand Trends. Basse says the retail price of beef has shocked the industry.

“If you would have told me last year the retail price of beef would be in the vicinity of $9.50 a pound, and we had no demand rationing, no shifting to chicken or pork, I would have told you you’re crazy,’” he explains. “This new generation today likes protein. They like their vegetables. They do not like their starches. The snack food industry is in a bad spot. And Make America Healthy Again is going to help cattlemen.”

The demand for beef continues to increase while disposable personal income continues to increase.

“People are making money and they’re consuming it versus saving it,” Basse explains. “I think that’s important to understand. This thing called ‘chicken fatigue’ is real — we can’t eat chicken all the time. When is the beef market going to peak? I can’t model it. I can’t tell you.”

His outlook for protein producers is optimistic: “If you’re a protein producer, the next two or three years look really good.”

However, he cautions the market is complex and unpredictable.

“This is a new world,” Basse concludes. “Someday, will there be a point where we do hit a level that causes some reduction in demand? I suspect it, but I can’t tell you where it is.”

Why Aren't High Beef Prices Causing Sticker Shock With Consumers?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 17:28:06 GMT

Gound beef prices across the U.S. continue to reach new highs. Retail prices for ground beef hit its highest level in history in June climbing above $6 per pound, while steaks were up 8% at $11.49 per pound.

(Bureau of Labor Statistics )

“The record high retail beef price reported by the most recent Consumer Price Index (CPI) has prompted a lot of calls about why prices are record high and whether there is any relief in sight,” says David Anderson, Texas A&M Extension economist for livestock and food product marketing. “While we often write about the great cattle prices for producers who are selling, there is a flip side, and that is consumers who are buying beef.”

Anderson explains reduced slaughter and beef production, especially in the second quarter of the year, cut supplies just as grilling season heated up for seasonal beef demand. The combination led to a spike in wholesale prices and retail beef prices.

Don Close, Terrain senior animal protein analyst, says: “What we have seen so far is consumers have been incredibly loyal to protein collectively, but they have been especially loyal to beef, and beef is actually continuing to gain market there, even at the current prices at the expense of the other protein.”

Wages Are Keeping Pace With Beef Prices

Close says when he correlates the monthly all fresh beef price to hourly wages he found they are in lock step.

“Yes, beef prices have escalated, but beef prices have not risen any faster than the improvement in overall hourly wage,” he explains. “So from the consumer’s perspective, their share of their paycheck committed to beef is essentially the same as it’s been on a comparative basis for years.”

(Don Close, Terrain )

Other contributing factors to beef demand include consumers’ craze for protein and the impact of GLP-1 diets on protein consumption.

Scott Varilek, Kooima Kooima Varilek, says: “I think beef demand has just proven time and time again — hey, consumers want it. It’s a great healthy protein, and I think it’s got a lot of good traction here over the last year of being a good quality source of food.”

High Quality Attracts Consumer Spending

Plus, with 82% to 84% of the beef produced grading Choice or better, the high quality of beef is pushing demand.

“I don’t see any weakness really in the consumers or their spending habits,” says Mike Minor, professional ag marketing. “We actually are eating more Prime meat today than Choice for the first time ever. So, people like their expensive meat still.”

How Long Will High Cattle and Beef Prices Last?

Last week USDA reported average fed cash cattle prices hit the second-highest level in history at $237.78, up 57¢ from the average the prior week.

The high cattle and beef prices continue to be driven by tight cattle numbers, the Mexican boarder closing due to New World screwworm and looming import challenges.

Yet, Close says the role of strong demand can’t be ignored and is likely to continue.

“I think it’s certainly through 2026 and really more realistic somewhere deep into 2027,” he adds.

Anderson explains normal seasonal production and demand would suggest prices falling from recent highs. Evidence from the wholesale beef market over the last couple of weeks indicates lower prices.

“Seasonal price patterns would suggest that there is a chance for a little bit of relief from record high beef prices,” Anderson says. “But, only if we compare to the peak price this summer. Wholesale beef prices are already declining.”

He adds there is a time lag from lower wholesale prices showing up at retail, but lower wholesale prices combined with normal seasonality of various cut prices should lead to the expectation of falling prices in the coming months.

“But, it’s not likely that prices will decline below year-ago levels,” Anderson emphasizes.

Inventory Reports Release on July 25

Close says more will be known about supply levels after the USDA Cattle on Feed and Cattle Inventory reports on Friday.

“While market analysts expect lower placements, marketings and cattle in feedyards than a year ago, the really interesting number will be the number of heifers on feed on July 1,” Anderson summarizes. “The heifers on feed will provide some insight into heifer retention. Also, look for placements in Texas due to the ban on Mexican feeder cattle. The lack of spayed heifers coming from Mexico is important in evaluating the number of heifers on feed.”

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Is Food Inflation Heating Up July 4th Grills?

Wed, 25 Jun 2025 17:44:50 GMT

Two industry reports are shining a light on the cost of a July 4^th barbecue.

The economists at Wells Fargo calculate an at-home holiday party for 10 will cost $130. The menu includes chicken breasts, beef sliders, hot dogs, fresh fruit, a vegetable platter, potato salad, corn bread, cake, apple pie, ice cream, beer, wine and soda.

Dr. Michael Swanson, chief agricultural economist within Wells Fargo’s Agri-Food Institute, says year-over-year food inflation is 2.2%.

For notable food prices from the July 4^th report, he cites the following:

Ground beef: Up 7.4%
Boneless chicken breasts: Up 1%
Watermelon and strawberries: Down 0.6%
Potatoes: Up 1%
Egg prices: Up 40%
Ice cream (1.5 quart): Up less than 1%

Swanson says beef prices year over year have been running 6% to 8% higher.

“When you talk to somebody who’s a processor or a packer, there’s not a part of the cow that moves independent from the other parts of the cow so it’s all right in that category 6% to 8% on a year over year basis the last couple of months based on CPI,” he says.

He says for cost-savings, chicken offers the greatest opportunities in the protein category.

“When you look at the composite pricing from USDA, it’s right around $2.42 to $2.45 a pound — including everything from wings and breasts,” he says.

As for hot dogs, Swanson says the blend inside the casing will drive the price.

“If you go with the all-beef frankfurters, yes, they’re up substantially. If you look for a sausage or bratwurst that has a blend of pork and beef in it, you’re probably finding a much better bargain. Pork has been pretty flat year over year,” he says.

Swanson says the effects of highly pathogenic avian influenza are still being reflected in higher egg prices for menu items such as deviled eggs and salads.

As for ice cream, Swanson says the increase in cost is being attributed to additional labor expense in production.

“We’re seeing a little bit of inflation in that category, but just very modest. We have a good supply of cream and milk in the country right now. The dairymen are doing wel. So, what that reflects is kind of that cost of transformation,” he says.

Wells Fargo uses NeilsenIQ data for its analysis.

American Farm Bureau Market Basket Survey
Using its annual survey, The American Farm Bureau Federation says this year’s food prices are resulting in the second-highest cost for an at-home July 4^th barbecue since 2013 when the survey began.

“High prices don’t mean more money for farmers, however. Farmers are price takers, not price makers. Their share of the food retail dollar is just 15%. The cost of running their farm is up — from labor and transportation to taxes,” says AFBF associate economist Samantha Ayoub.

Per AFBF, this year’s cost for an Independence Day cookout will cost $70.92 for 10 people. Included in the calculations are cheeseburgers, chicken breasts, pork chops, potato salad, strawberries and ice cream.

Last year was the highest cost found by the survey at $7.39 per person.

Year-over-year retail price increases in 2025 include:

2 lb. of ground beef: Up 4.4% to $13.33
Pork and beans: Up 20¢ to $2.69
Potato salad: Up 6.6% to $3.54

Notable reductions, compared to 2024, in food prices per the survey were:

3 lb. package of pork chops: Down 8.8% to $14.13
Chips: Down 10¢ to $4.80 a bag
Hamburger buns: Down 2.6% to $2.35

Connecting Cattle Producers and Beef Wholesalers Through Supply Chain Management

Wed, 23 Apr 2025 18:59:55 GMT

For producers or groups of producers wanting to sell directly into wholesale beef channels, three big issues have created challenges to the marketplace: scale, balancing the carcass and logistics.

“If you have a steakhouse that has to buy hundreds of ribeyes every single week, it’s probably pretty hard to find many producers who are going to be able to fulfill that procurement spec weekly,” says Farmshare CEO Henry Arrowood. “No. 2 is balancing of the carcass — you might find a restaurant that wants to buy all your primes, but what are you doing with the rest of that carcass? And No. 3 is the logistics — how do I actually get the animal to the processing facility, secure a slot, secure the cut order, then get that product out into the hands of the buyer? That is exactly what our platform does.”

Arrowood shared on a recent AgriTalk episode about how the system provides a way for wholesale buyers to connect with smaller producers who can offer local, differentiated and value-added products.

“If a set of producers match the parameters of what the bid of the buy side is looking for, we start to show them these opportunities that they can participate in,” Arrowood says. “We show them the price point at which the customer is looking to purchase. We show them the target product and volume that they’re looking for, and then we aggregate that supply into an order and route it to one of our processing facilities for manufacturing.”

Finding a market for the entire carcass has remained a challenge to the smaller, regional producers who want to sell meat. Until now.

“Big packers have become these efficiency machines where they’ve been able to create all these different market opportunities to balance the carcass and create, good returns across the entire animal. That doesn’t exist on a small scale,” Arrowood says. “It’s really hard for any given producer to go out and create similar opportunities for the entirety of their carcass. That is what we’re doing.”

By using artificial intelligence, Arrowood says the company creates pricing models and yield distribution models to price optimize the entire animal for the end producer. If one buyer claims the ribeyes, the system figures out additional buyers for the strips, tenderloins, ground beef, etc., he says.

“It’s our responsibility to create a diversified set of customers on the buy side that we can move this product to, school systems, hospitals, really good targets for us in terms of moving that ground product,” Arrowood explains. “There’s a lot of restaurant groups that are looking for a different product than they might be able to get through the institutional food service companies. So, that’s where we’re moving some of that prime product.”

The idea for Farmshare came to Arrowood when he experienced the challenges in the beef supply chain firsthand.

“During the pandemic, I left San Francisco and moved out to a cattle ranch in Montana, and that’s where I am right now. And it didn’t take me long, when I got to this seventh-generation cow-calf operation, to realize there were some pretty deep inefficiencies in the supply chain and that of every dollar that I or any other city slicker was spending on meat in the grocery store, only 14 cents was making its way back to a producer’s pocket.”

As a tech pro, Arrowood began imagining what could be done to create more streamlined distribution that would give fair financials back to the end producer and help independent processors.

“I think that technology serves a very unique and interesting opportunity to rethink the way in which meat travels throughout the value chain, and the money that ultimately gets back into the hands the people who do the work,” Arrowood says.

Farmshare works with processors in more than 25 states across the country and is ready to expand its reach.

“We like to think of ourselves as bringing modern tooling to the independent processor,” Arrowood says. “For maybe the first time, we’ve built a set of tools for the independent processor that help to increase efficiency and maximize the throughput of their plant and ultimately drive them towards doing greater capacity within their facility.”

By automating and streamlining several manual processes and complexities that exist for processors today, Arrowood says the system can mitigate the amount of phone calls, paper pushing and filing that an independent locker has to go through in order to successfully manage their business.

“Our customers are saving five to seven hours per day on all the administrative sort of burden and complexity of their business,” he says.

He says packers have a lot of efficiencies, technology and staff to help them future proof their businesses.

“What we’re doing is building that as a shared resource and shared set of infrastructures that we can then sort of co-op out into the ecosystem for the independent processor,” Arrowood says.

This management system creates opportunities for efficiency throughout the supply chain while keeping the marketing between the buyer and the seller. Within the Farmshare system, the animal does not change ownership to the processor and the restaurant connects directly with a group of independent processors.

“We’re facilitating the transaction between those two parties,” Arrowood says. “We’ve used this network of independent processors as the manufacturing layer to actually turn that animal into a consumable product.”

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Food Inflation, Threatened Tariffs: What Is The Effect On Super Bowl Snack Tables?

Mon, 03 Feb 2025 20:14:52 GMT

Whether it’s chicken wings (up 7%) or vegetables for the snack tray (broccoli is down 7%), Wells Fargo Agri-Food Institute Economist Dr. Michael Swanson says consumers shouldn’t expect every snack food category to increase their budget for a traditional Super Bowl party. And he doesn’t think President Trump’s latest trade talks with Mexico, Canada and China will have a direct, immediate effect at the grocery store by Sunday’s big game.

“It’s unlikely that changes in tariffs will impact prices headed into the Super Bowl, however, we’ll see how it plays out in the coming weeks. This is certainly the year for consumers to stay food fluent,” Swanson says.

For the past four years, he’s led the team at Wells Fargo to look at popular categories for game day watch parties and analyze the pricing trends. His research aims to help consumers stay “food fluent” to find alternatives, substitutions and bargains when they can.

“We started in 2021 when we saw the first spike in food inflation. And the past three years, everything has been up—it was a question of how much a category was up that year,” Swanson says. “But for 2025, some categories are up, and some are not. Some are way up; and some are way down.”

Swanson says it’s demand keeping prices elevated—not supply.

“Take chicken wings. Did the avian influenza knock out the chicken wings? The answer is, no, it didn’t–it was mainly the egg laying flocks. We have almost more chicken wings than we did last year, but prices are up 7%. Why? It’s consumer demand,” he says.

For dairy products, the Super Bowl is one of the top three demand events.

“Between the nachos, pizzas and sundry cheese-based snacks, the industry knows that and prepares well in advance making sure all the fans have what they need,” he says. “Dairy as a category was up 1.3% from a year ago, but it has been a relatively flat pricing environment for the last 18 months. Consumers and producers have found a good balance overall.

Specific to ongoing trade developments and tariffs discussions, Swanson says the dairy industry is staying keenly aware.

“Exports are a key element for balancing U.S. dairy production and demand. The industry is preparing to see what happens with key markets like Mexico and Canada in the near term,” he says.

He says the same could play out for avocados, which is notable given the tariff discussions on Mexico—our No. 1 source country for avocados.

“The question is, is the supply substitutable. With avocados, we’re seeing a push to grow more in Ecuador, Peru, and Colombia,” he says.

While longer-term supplies may be diversified, it takes years for trees to bear fruit. And for now, per the Wells Fargo Super Bowl Report, avocado prices are up over 11%.
Two other vegetables up year-over-year are red bell peppers (up 7.4%) and prepared carrots (up 3.4%)

So what categories went down in year-to-year pricing?

Notably, some vegetables are down including celery (down 8.4), broccoli (down 7.2%) and cauliflower (down 3.8%).

A more robust supply of potatoes has yielded a decline in potato chips prices, which are 5.1% lower. Also when it comes to overall pre-packaged foods, the container prices have come down, so increases in transport costs aren’t being passed along to the consumer as they have been in the past.

If you’re looking for a “bargain” Swanson points to store brand frozen pizzas.

“Some of those carbohydrate-based components are down through competition. Something like frozen pizzas, for example are down from a year ago. And especially you look at those store Brand pizzas are way down. They’re down about 8% versus just 2% for the national brand. So if you really want to save money, competition is your friend.”
As for protein, the biggest price decline has been in shrimp with a 4% lower price this year than last.

Retail beef prices remain elevated.

“It’s not that we have poor supply of beef. We’re doing some interesting dynamics right now, exporting a little bit less, importing, a little bit more, putting more pounds on those cows,” Swanson says. “We have a decent supply of beef, but the price is still up 3.5% to 4% as a category from a year ago. The consumers love it, and they’re going to pay for it.”

His advice overall in this food economic environment is to stay a smart shopper.

“We’re entering a competitive situation right now–we’re seeing things go up and things go down. If a product matters to you, get out the on the web, shop a couple of stores, because one of the things we do find is promotions are back in the game.”

USDA Says Farm-level Egg Prices Could Jump Another 45.2% in 2025 Due to Avian Flu

Fri, 24 Jan 2025 19:51:30 GMT

The January 2025 Food Price Outlook released Friday shows while food price inflation has slowed overall, key sectors like eggs and beef remain volatile due to supply chain and input cost pressures.

Egg prices saw the biggest spike, according to USDA’s data, up 37% year-over-year. But the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows the price of Grade A eggs in December was up 93% since January 2024. And when you look ahead, USDA expects outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza to continue to cause egg prices to climb.

When it comes to USDA’s specific outlook released Friday, the agency uses recent trends in food prices based on Consumer Price Index (CPI) and Producer Price Index (PPI) data through December 2024.

Key Highlights of the report include:

Overall inflation trends:
- Food prices increased by 2.5% year-over-year as of December 2024
- Food-at-home prices rising by 1.8% and food-away-from-home prices increasing by 3.6%.
2025 forecasts:
- Food prices expected to rise by 2.2%, slower than the historical average.
- Food-at-home prices predicted to grow by 1.3%, while food-away-from-home prices are forecast to increase by 3.6%.
Insights Within Categories:
- Egg prices saw a sharp rise of 36.8% year-over-year in December 2024, with 2025 prices projected to climb by 20.3% amid ongoing supply constraints.
- Beef and veal prices are expected to increase modestly by 1.5% in 2025, following a 4.9% rise in 2024.
- Pork and fats/oils prices are forecast to decline in 2025, with decreases of 0.8% and 1.6%, respectively.
- Fresh fruit prices are anticipated to rise by 0.7%, while dairy product prices are expected to increase by 1.3%.

Producer Price Insights:

The PPI, which tracks wholesale prices, suggests continued volatility in farm-level and wholesale markets, with significant fluctuations predicted for eggs, milk, and fruits due to factors such as extreme weather and disease outbreaks. Farm-level egg prices are expected to see a sharp increase of 45.2% in 2025, with a wide prediction interval reflecting uncertainty.

Overall, while food price growth is expected to moderate compared to recent years, specific categories remain susceptible to sudden price shifts driven by global and domestic factors.

What’s the Deal with Egg Prices?

Sticker shock with eggs stared shoppers in the face to end 2024. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, the increase is even more staggering. They show the average cost of a dozen Grade A large eggs was $4.15 in December, up from $3.65 in November and $2.15 in January 2024.

According to livestock economists at Texas A&M University, the widespread outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza, or HPAI, continue to be the culprit, driving egg prices to record highs across the U.S. Commercial laying flocks have been hit especially hard.

“There is seasonality to egg prices based on demand, but the cutting of supplies, in this case by disease, has driven prices higher,” says David Anderson, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics . “I wouldn’t be surprised to see them go higher in the next report, but there is price volatility when you consider the supply and demand factors in play.”

USDA’s Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service reports since first detected in 2022, 1,410 flocks have been impacted, including 637 commercial operations. As a result, 134.7 million birds have been culled.

Georgia Hit for First Time By Avian Flu

Just last week, the largest poultry producing state in the nation reported its first case of avian flu. The Georgia Department of Agriculture confirming the virus at a farm in Elbert County. In reaction, the Georgia Depart of Agriculture says all poultry exhibitions, swaps, meets and sales have been suspended as a precaution. The Department says cleanup is currently underway and nearby operations are under quarantine.

According to Greg Archer, Ph.D., AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science , one reason the HPAI is spreading so quickly is because of environmental conditions. According to Archer, the disease prefers temperatures below 90 degrees.

“Farmers take biosecurity seriously because they’ve been dealing with the threat for years,” he said. “The big question this time is the strain mutations and how outbreaks in poultry facilities are occurring.

Archer also says migratory birds have historically been the main carrier of the disease. The pathogen will enter the poultry house through migratory bird feces on the bottom of the show or by a truck of vehicle that transports materials or feed between farms.

The Time It Takes to Rebuild

Once a flock is hit, the operation culls the animals, and replacing lost birds takes times. According to Archer, it can take 20 or more weeks for birds to develop from incubated eggs to pullets to production-ready laying hens.

In some cases, entire farms are wiped out. Archer says farmers bring those farms back online in phases to stagger their production by new and older birds.

As they do so, the eggs produced by younger and older birds are typically smaller while hens in their prime lay large to jumbo eggs.

And the key in building back the supply of eggs in the U.S., according to Archer, is rebuilding the flocks impacted by avian flu.

The other recent wild card, is recent transmission patterns in new animals, including dairy cows and pigs.

Consumer Demand and the Unknown

Now the question is how much consumers are willing to pay, and if it will impact demand?

“Producers will be expanding their flocks to produce more eggs to meet demand and capitalize on the high prices, while consumers might cut back,” says Anderson. “That combination aligning with fewer instances of avian influenza as the weather warms up would likely put downward pressure on prices. There is a natural ebb and flow to egg prices from seasonal supply and demand, and HPAI has just added volatility to the market.”

Avoiding the Pitfalls of Selling Sustainable Beef

Tue, 27 Aug 2024 18:16:43 GMT

Texas-based Burgundy Pasture Beef markets its products as, “100% Grass Fed. Sustainable. Wholesome.” but partner Jon Taggart says that’s a story that he can only sell one time for each customer.

“They’ll buy it once, but they won’t buy it twice if their experience with us is bad,” he says.

That story hasn’t always been the case for Taggart or for Burgundy Pasture Beef. Since they started in the mid-90’s, he says he’s “done it all in the beef industry.”

When the rising cost of inputs started seriously eating into his margins and Taggart says he realized they were “going broke spending money,” he knew a change was needed.

Their 100% grassfed operation now has beef coming off consistently throughout the year, being processed in their own USDA-inspected facility and then sold exclusively in retail stores in Grandview and neighboring metropolitan Ft. Worth and Dallas.

“There’s a market,” he says. “Obviously we’ve been successful for 25 years now.”

Recently, Taggart attended the Trust In Beef Sustainable Ranchers Tour stop in G-C Ranch to share insights from his three-decade career. Both through his lived experience and through his custom processing business, which caters to cottage producers, he has seen mistakes that can make or break cattle producers when growing, marketing, processing and selling sustainable beef.

Here are Taggart’s top tips for avoiding those pitfalls on your ranch:

Don’t Waste Your Genetics

“Once that animal leaves the ranch, your fixed costs are pretty much the same for trucking, processing, packaging and marketing,” Taggart says. “You’ve got to get as many pounds out of it as you can get.”

The money that’s spent on cattle genetics can be wasted if the cattle aren’t finished for their frame size when they leave the ranch, says Taggart.

“If you want the marbling and a decent grade, you have to give them time to take advantage of their genetics and you have to give them the resources to do it,” he adds.

Plan for the Whole Animal

According to Taggart, the pitfall that he sees most often is producers who don’t plan to sell the whole carcass.

“Somebody gets excited because a restaurant wants to buy steaks, but that’s only 15, maybe 20% of the carcass,” he says. “Then they’ll look behind them and they’ll have a pile of ground beef the size of a truck to deal with.”

First, Figure Out Your Market

Similarly, Taggart says, many producers don’t consider consumers in the equation when determining how to sell and package beef products.

“Going in, that’s the thing they need to figure out first,” he says. “It depends on the volume you want to do and your goals, and because of that, there are a lot of people selling halves, quarters, whole cows.”

It’s a very small market, considering the cost of beef these days— it’s a big investment for a consumer to fill a freezer, Taggart continues.

“Also, the consumer figures out that when they buy that whole animal, they get a lot of stuff they really don’t want,” he adds. “If they don’t have a good experience with it, they are gone forever from that market.”

Supply Starts On-the-Ground

“Since we built our processing facility in 2004, we harvest cattle 52 weeks out of the year. We only missed one week during the freeze of 2021,” he says.

What allows Burgundy Pasture Beef to consistently produce high-quality beef? Taggart says it’s his grass.

“When you look at finishing cattle on grass, I am a huge proponent of diverse grass mixtures,” he says. “I can’t stand a monoculture.

“In order to have that constant supply, you’ve got to have a level of nutrition in your pastures that will allow you to do that,” he adds.

Taggart recommends a mix of cool season and warm season legumes, annuals and perennials.

“In a monoculture, it’s going to reach its peak of nutrition one time a year all at the same time,” he says. “You can’t maintain that gain on cattle all through the year to have the supply constant.”

Learn more about Burgundy Pasture Beef and make your plans today to attend the 2024 Trust In Beef Sustainable Ranchers Tour for more insights into how to build a more sustainable beef supply chain.

Next-Gen Spotlight: Matt Adams Created His Niche By Doing Things No One Else Wanted To Do

Wed, 17 Apr 2024 16:53:56 GMT

While Matt Adams grew up in an ag-friendly family, he considers himself a first-generation farmer. An elderly neighbor taught him the ropes of raising cattle and developed his love for the industry. Following his passing, Adams was able to buy that operation and transitioned to a full-time farmer a few years ago. Today he and his wife, Molly , have a cow-calf operation and farm 900 acres. They also sell direct to consumers through a retail freezer beef business.

What’s the best advice you’ve ever received?
“Work hard but don’t think that you can work your way out of a situation with just manual labor. You need to spend as much time in the office as outside doing the actual farm work.”

What was the hardest part of getting started?
“Our biggest limiting factor is just access to the land. We’re in an area where development is rampant and there are still a lot of active farmers, so land is in high demand here. Another huge challenge was access to capital. As a first-generation farmer we’ve had to build 90% of our infrastructure. We finally were able to build a farm shop three years ago, and last year we built our first grain bin and started our grain storage facility. It’s a challenge overcoming the capital hurdle because you can’t do it all at once.”

What obstacles have you had to overcome?
“There’s always been a lot of negativity in agriculture, whether it’s real apparent or not. As a young guy starting out, you get a lot of people trying to give you advice and a lot of that advice is actually discouragement. I had people tell me that I didn’t need to worry about full-time farming. I should have a few cows, go get a job in town and be happy. I shouldn’t strive for anything more because it was too risky. I really let that hold me back for a long time. I worked as a county Extension agent for about 12 years. I listened to people say I wasn’t farming enough acres, there wasn’t enough opportunity or I couldn’t make enough money. I think hearing those kinds of comments probably kept me from being a full-time farmer sooner.”

What advice would you give to other young farmers?
“Create your own opportunities by finding the things that no one else wants to do. This is how I ended up in the small square hay bale business. In the beginning, it was a labor-intensive enterprise that many didn’t want to mess with. Although we’ve mechanized the bale handling process with the use of a bale accumulator and grapple system, growing high-quality hay is still an extremely time and management intensive enterprise. Because we live in horse country, we do, however, have the potential for a high return per acre on our hay, so we’re rewarded for this management.

One of the best pieces of advice I’ve received in the cattle business is that it’s not the good ones that make you money, it’s how you manage the bad ones. This was one of the main reasons for starting our retail freezer beef business. We’re take calves that don’t fit in with the rest of a group, either because of color or some type of visual blemish, and add value to them before they leave the farm.

On the row crop side, as a beginning farmer in an area with a lot of competition for land, I’ve had to take whatever land I can get. A lot of what we farm is basically whatever everyone else doesn’t want: marginal, rolling, highly erodible land that’s hard to farm, especially with bigger equipment. While it’s less efficient to farm than large, flat tracts, we’ve developed a system that includes no-till, the use of cover crops and technologies like variable-rate seeding and hydraulic downforce on our planter that helps us be more productive on these acres. Even on marginal land, our yields will consistently be above the county average.”

Favorite way to relax?
My favorite way to relax is probably eating a bowl of ice cream. I’m a big cookies and cream fan if I had to pick a favorite.

Mountains or Beach?
“I am definitely a mountains person. That’s where my wife and I went on our honeymoon while everybody else our age seemed to go to the beach.”

What is your final message to readers?
“We couldn’t do any of this without faith. Too many things have happened that shouldn’t have worked out but did. It just reinforces that no matter how hard you work, you’re not 100% in control. Once I let go of that, things seemed to come easier, and the stress load was way lighter.”

Turning the Challenge of a Cattle Cycle Into an Opportunity

Mon, 04 Mar 2024 16:37:35 GMT

By Carol Keiser Long: Belleair, Florida USA

“Cattle crisis” has a nice alliterative ring to it—and that may be why we’ve heard the phrase lately. It’s irresistible to headline authors and television personalities .

Just because they like to write it and say it doesn’t make it so.

We’re not in the middle of a cattle crisis.

It’s true that prices are high, supplies are low, and a drought has played a part.

But it’s no crisis. It’s not even close to a crisis.

Instead, we’re in a predictable period of a well-established cycle. Across my 50-plus years in the beef cattle business, starting with 4-H and continuing through my ranching years, I’ve seen the cycle come and go many times. Consumer prices swing back and forth. They always will.

Today, they’re high. The reasons for this are neither complicated nor mysterious.

It starts out with strong demand. Americans love steaks and burgers. They savor the high-quality beef that our ranchers produce—and they’re willing to pay a premium for it.

Here’s what happens. As prices go up, more ranchers decide to take advantage—and they send more heifers into production rather than holding them back. This results in fewer calves, which leads to a smaller supply. Last year, according to CattleFax , beef production was down 4.3 percent. In 2024, CattleFax forecasts a decline of 3.8 percent.

Now it becomes a simple matter of supply and demand, which is why the price of beef rose by 5 percent in 2023. It projects to go up by 4 percent this year.

The solution is patience. Remember, this is a cycle. Ranchers once again will start to hold back heifers and rebuild their herds. This doesn’t happen overnight. Raising a calf into a cow can take two years. Gestation requires an additional nine months. That means a female calf born tonight won’t produce a new calf for nearly three years.

Soon, it will make more economic sense to keep the cow. With proper care—good feed, proper shelter, and attention to health—a cow can produce a calf per year for ten years.

As the cycle moves along, consumers will enjoy better prices relative to their other expenses. This year and next year, however, are likely to be times of adjustment.

This isn’t a crisis. This is how the world works.

Yet there is a potential crisis looming for the beef cattle industry. The problem is that not enough young people are taking up the profession. This threatens the future of meat production.

Who in the next generation will work on the family farms and ranches that are the backbone of our industry?

They won’t come from my progeny. My three kids went into other careers. My seven grandchildren are also taking different paths.

There’s nothing wrong with any of their individual decisions, but they highlight a challenge.

If nobody takes up these family businesses, ranches will get sold. Sometimes they will go to other ranchers who are seeking to expand, and that can be a positive development from the standpoint of the industry.

Increasingly, however, pastures are selling as real estate—and they’re turning into subdivisions and office complexes. I’m currently living in a retirement community that once was ranchland.

This is the kind of trend that could disrupt a familiar business cycle and its routine fluctuations between high and low prices—and keep forcing prices ever upward, creating an authentic “cattle crisis.”

The solution is to find ways to make beef cattle production an attractive choice for young people. It starts with schools: Public investments in agricultural education, including the scholarships that can shape lives. People respond to incentives.

Separately, we must resist pressures to over-regulate our ranches. The life of a rancher is a life of independence, and it always will attract a certain breed of person—someone who loves spending time outdoors caring for livestock in rural America, rather than sitting behind a desk doing paperwork.

Right now, the United States still has the world’s best beef cattle as well as its best ranchers. We can choose to keep it this way. This is an opportunity, not a crisis.

Carol Keiser Long owns C-Bar Cattle Company, which has operated cattle feeding operations in Kansas, Nebraska and Illinois. She volunteers as a board member for the Global Farmer Network .

Carving Out Convenience: Young Cattle Producer Serves Up Success With Vending Machine of Meat

Wed, 10 Jan 2024 20:25:13 GMT

Walk into the Green Grass Cattle Company & Mercantile in Weston, Mo., and you’re immediately greeted with a slice of nostalgia. From a recently acquired feed store, to a storefront featuring beef, home goods and apparel, it’s a family-run business with solid rural roots.

“I’m the fifth generation in my family to take this on,” says Tim Haer, when asked how long his family has been farming.

He may be a fifth-generation farmer, but he’s now part of what’s become first-generation beef business.

“Green Grass Cattle Company started two years ago,” says Haer.

When we caught up with Haer, he took us out to one of his family’s pastures.

After the flood of 1993, the family sold their farm and cattle. Tim’s mom and dad then landed jobs off the farm, but still within agriculture. The family had some cattle, but after his dad retired, he was ready for a new family venture.

“He kind of approached us and said, ‘Hey, you guys want to make a run at this full time?’ And after that, we started adding back to the herd and increasing our numbers,” says Haer.

Intentional Decisions and Growth

It’s growth that hasn’t always happened by chance. While Haer says some of the relationships and business partnerships have been a fortunate find, the Haers are also intentional in everything they do.

“When we first started out, we were just selling sides of beef. We didn’t have a retail store. We had a small online presence. But we didn’t have an e-commerce site or anything,” he says.

But when the Covid-19 pandemic hit, just like many protein producers, the Haer saw demand for freezer beef catch fire, and that’s when the Haers knew it was time to dish out something new.

“We looked at that as an opportunity to start processing cattle at a USDA [inspected] facility, and then selling individual cuts of beef as well,” he says.

Serving Up a Story

And they did, opening up a storefront in Weston in September 2021. The family knew opening a new door would also serve as a way for the family to connect with consumers and share the story behind their beef.

“I think it’s really important to do that,” says Megan Haer-Schmidt, Tim’s younger sister, but also manager of New Deal Ag Solutions, the family’s newest business. “I think consumers care about it, too. The types of questions that we will get are often very detailed, and you can tell that people, you know, want to know that the food that they’re eating was raised by a local family, or that it was cared for.”

High-Quality Beef Starts with High-Quality Bulls

Differentiating their business has become Green Grass Cattle Company’s specialty, and Haer says it all starts with high-quality bulls. The family carefully selected the bulls for certain traits.

“We weren’t concerned about a lot of the other things that traditional producers are looking for. What we were looking for, were bulls that had high EPD (expected progeny differences) scores and ribeye size and marbling,” Haer explains.

The other trait the Haers wanted, were finding bulls that were extremely docile, and they seemed to hit the jackpot when they found black angus bulls from Connealy Angus in Whitman, Neb.

“We found great value in buying those, and it’s turned out to be a pretty successful venture for us,” says Haer.

A Wild Idea That Turned Wildly Successful

The deliberate decisions made at Green Grass Cattle Company are also ones that can be a bit different, especially when it comes to some of Tim’s off-the-wall ideas.

“Last year, I had a buddy of mine that moved to Germany and I was talking to him one evening, and he goes, ‘Man, you’re not going to believe this, but I get my bratwurst out of a vending machine that’s two blocks away from me.’”

With that, he had an idea: create their own vending machine full of meat.

“I researched the different machines that were available to see how I could make it work to sell not just brats, but ground beef and even steaks,” says Haer. “And I finally found a machine that I thought would work and accommodate our needs.”

Haer didn’t just do some heavy research on the right set-up to service customers, but also the right location.

“Keith Bradley, co-owner of Made in KC , really believed in our idea. He’s really supported us through this whole venture,” says Haer. “And they’ve got a lot of runway. I think they have close to 15 stores in Kansas City.”

That idea, is a reality today, located inside Front Range Coffeehouse, which is one of Bradley’s businesses in the middle of Kansas City, and 40 miles from the Haer family’s farm.

“It’s just kind of taken off, and it’s been wildly successful,” says Haer.

Digesting the Data

With the vending machine being located 40 miles from the farm, Haer knew he needed a vending machine that was highly automated. And what the Haers landed on is a machine that allows Tim to constantly collect the data.

“In working with the distributor that sells the machines, we were able to find a card reader that actually provides a lot of telematics in real-time,” says Her.

Out of all the aggregated data, Haer says the most telling point may be how people will buy steak at any hour of the day. When the vending machine first launched, it was located outside the store, and Haer says people would buy steaks all times of the day and night, including 11 p.m.

“I didn’t know if the machine was going to be successful to start with. When people were buying, buying steaks that late at night, it just kind of validated all the assumptions that I had,” says Haer.

Loyal Customers, One Steak at a Time

The reviews of Green Grass Cattle Company tell the story best. They’ve carved out convenience, while attracting a loyal customer base across the Kansas City area.

“When we first opened up the doors to the store, we were answering questions we just kind of took for granted as knowledge that we had our whole lives,” he says. “We’re not just trying to provide locally raised beef to consumers, we also have an obligation now to educate them and make more of a connection with where our food comes from.”

Whether it’s buying a steak from this vending machine, or visiting the family’s store and mercantile, the Haers have not only carved out convenience, but also a niche.

FSIS Asked to Recall Beef Over Failed Antibiotic Tests

Mon, 11 Apr 2022 17:08:28 GMT

USDA’s Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) should immediately recall any beef that tested positive for the presence of antibiotics. Farm Action and the American Grassfed Association made the request after a study by Georgetown University reported finding antibiotics in cattle destined to be sold through a USDA-approved no-antibiotics labeling program.

In a statement, the groups say the current system that processes “raised without antibiotics” (RWA) beef lacks credibility. They said a previous investigation from the organization Farm Forward discovered antibiotic-positive meat on Whole Foods Market shelves.

In their statement, the two groups suggest Whole Foods is the retail destination for the beef in the Georgetown study, but Whole Foods said in an email to Drovers that is an incorrect assumption and no retailer is identified by the study.

“We have extensively reviewed the information made available to us and have no reason to believe that the cattle tested in this study ended up in products in our stores,” a Whole Foods Market spokesperson wrote. “We take compliance very seriously and never hesitate to act if a supplier has failed to meet our rigorous Quality Standards.”

In a letter to FSIS, Farm Action and American Grassfed Association described the pressing need for immediate action: “FSIS should swiftly request a recall of the meat in question. If Whole Foods refuses to recall its misleadingly-labeled meat, FSIS should use its legal authority to detain and seize it.”

On Thursday, Science Magazine published a study where researchers from George Washington University tested urine samples from cattle that were destined for a “Raised without Antibiotics” (RWA) marketplace and found about 15% of the cattle tested positive for antibiotics. The researchers say their findings suggest current “raised without antibiotics” labels lack integrity.

Farm Action and the American Grassfed Association wants an “investigation of the entire Whole Foods supply chain, including the retail stores, slaughter plants, and feedlots that claim to produce antibiotic-free meat.”

“Labels should mean what they say,” said Angela Huffman, Vice President and Co-Founder of Farm Action. “When they are false or misleading, people can get sick, cheaters profit, and farmers working hard to comply with the rules lose money and market opportunities.”

“American Grassfed formed over the issue of truth in labeling,” said Carrie Balkcom, Executive Director for the American Grassfed Association. “We’re reaching out to FSIS now in pursuit of real accountability and oversight.”

Only a recall, thorough investigation, and appropriate penalties will protect consumers and those farmers who do comply with the antibiotic-free claims, the two groups maintain. Failure to take these steps perpetuates a system that rewards deceit and endangers consumers.

Related stories:

Beef Fails Antibiotic-Free Test in New Study

Fake Meat Is Bleeding Money

Thu, 24 Feb 2022 00:35:07 GMT

There’s no animal blood on the floor in plant-based protein maker Beyond Meat’s processing facilities, but for three years the company has been bleeding cash. In fact, investors in the once trendy fake meat company have seen losses mounting.

Beyond Meat will release its fourth-quarter earnings on Thursday (Feb. 24), but caution flags were out to investors ahead of the report. Analysts project the quarter’s loss per share will more than double. In the third quarter, Beyond Meat’s revenue rose 13% year over year to $106.4 million, but net loss was $54.8 million. Shares that traded over $234 in July of 2019 were trading under $48 on Wednesday.

J.P. Morgan stock analyst Ken Goldman called Beyond Meat “the worst performer in our universe in the last year.” That’s because Beyond’s stock price fell 67% in a market that saw a median gain of 13%. Additionally, Goldman said, Beyond fell 15% over the past month, and 10% over the past week.

Garrett Duyck, an analyst for Seeking Alpha, said: “For the past three years (Beyond Meat) has been bleeding cash. The free cash flow per share has yet to be positive and declining margins is taking it lower. R&D expenses are up 78% YoY which is responsible for 50% of the operating loss.”

Beyond Meat has been lauded as a disruptor that was going to change the meat market entirely, putting animal protein out of business, Duyck notes. But he says the company continues to face obstacles even as over $465 million worth of its plant-based protein has been sold the past three years.

One obstacle is that it remains higher priced than beef, as much as two times higher. And, Beyond Meat is still not meat. There are many consumers who prefer meat and are willing to pay more for it.

“It seems the more faux meat they sell the more faux money they make,” Duyck said.