Snow

Wisconsin Dairy Farm Faces Rare Milk Dump During Brutal March Blizzard

Thu, 19 Mar 2026 21:32:07 GMT

A powerful March blizzard brought parts of Wisconsin to a standstill, blanketing roads, cutting off access, and forcing one dairy farm into an extraordinary decision.

Even as the storm shut down everything around one dairy farmer, it couldn’t stop the work, or the heart, of this farm family in Manawa, Wisconsin.

Whiteout conditions made travel impossible across the region, and for Chris Henschel, a dairy farmer in Manawa, the storm quickly turned from difficult to unprecedented. The March blizzard forced a decision he says he never expected to make.

“I would say this is probably one of the worst ones I’ve ever seen,” Henschel says.

Snow drifts reached five to fifteen feet high, and roads were impassable for roughly 36 hours. Milk trucks couldn’t get through, and employees couldn’t reach the farm, leaving the Henschel family to run everything on their own.

“The wind was huge because anytime you would plow anything, it would drift right back closed. So actually it basically wasn’t safe for drivers to be out… just my family trying to run everything by ourselves,” Henschel says.

With no way to move milk off the farm, the family was forced to make a decision no dairy farmer wants to face.

“Yes, we ended up dumping basically almost a day’s worth worth of milk because nobody could get here And have you ever had to dump milk before? We personally have no, we’ve never had, we’ve heard of other farmers having to do it, but we have never had to do,” Henschel says.

Even as the milk was lost, the cows were still cared for through the storm. Thanks to robotic milkers, the herd remained on schedule, but the human effort behind the operation became the biggest challenge.

“We milked with robots. So we did not have, our cows did not, it was more impact on our, the people, you know, just trying to get to the barn to take care of the cows and get the cows fed, you know, they did get fed a little late yesterday, but yeah, more, more so on the people than the cows. We made sure that cows were taken care of,” Henschel says.

While the financial impact remains uncertain, the storm tested the limits of the entire family and revealed just how far they were willing to go.

Ten-year-old Jack and six-year-old Elliot joined their parents in braving the blizzard, helping feed the cows and keep the farm running.

“Just getting around, getting the cows fed, you know, trying to open things up. So we could get the cows fed and get, you know, everybody taken care of and trying to keep everybody dry and clean. And yeah, that was a big truck, big struggle,” Henschel says.

Chris Henschel, Dairy Farmer, Manawa, Wisconsin

(The blizzard earlier this week created blinding conditions. With roads closed and employees unable to make it in, Henschels two sons stepped in to help. )

Through the wind, drifting snow, and near-impossible conditions, the family pushed forward—ensuring the cows were fed and cared for even when simply reaching the barn was a challenge.

“Dad’s still plowing some snow, but just kind of cleaning some things up, but yeah, everything’s pretty much back to normal,” Henschel says.

It was a storm Henschel says was worse than the blizzard of 2018, and one he hopes never to see again. But it also became a powerful reminder of the resilience of farm families—where grit, teamwork, and family come together when it matters most.

Early Planting Unlikely for Much of Eastern Corn Belt as Wet Pattern Dominates Spring Outlook

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 19:26:20 GMT

While some farmers may be enjoying the recent stretch of unusually warm temperatures, the broader spring weather pattern suggests early planting will likely be difficult across much of the eastern half of the country.

Matt Griffin, meteorologist with BAM Weather, says the start of March brings temperatures well above seasonal averages in many areas, particularly across the southeastern U.S. But those warmer temperatures are coming alongside an extremely active weather pattern that continues to deliver frequent rainfall.

The forecast points to an active moisture track from the eastern half of the country through March 12th.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather )

“Over the next week or so, it’s just going to be very warm,” Griffin says. “It’s going to continue to be very warm and very active.”

Griffin says the warmth is widespread across the eastern half of the country. In some areas of the eastern Ag Belt, temperatures are running significantly above normal for early March.

“We’re starting off March on a very warm note,” he says. “In fact, some of those colors into the eastern Ag Belt, the eastern U.S., in some spots 20 degrees above normal.”

However, the bigger concern for farmers isn’t the temperature. It’s the amount of precipitation expected to accompany the pattern.

Griffin says forecasts show a wide swath of rainfall stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with some areas expected to see multiple inches of rain in a short period of time.

“With this pattern coming, a lot of rain,” he says. “In fact, you can see this corridor of rain from near Dallas stretching into the Ohio Valley.”

Flooding Concerns Already Building

Some parts of the eastern Midwest could see particularly heavy totals.

“The folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, lots of rain,” Griffin says. “That area of pink there suggests amounts of three-plus inches of rain.”

In parts of the region, the ground is already saturated from recent systems. Griffin says the combination of previous rainfall and additional storms raises concerns about flooding. He adds that the areas receiving the heaviest precipitation could continue to deal with high water issues.

“I think anywhere you see the purples and the pink colors, and especially the blue areas, we’re going to have a continuation of flooding issues as well,” Griffin says.

Mid-March Cold Front Brings Another Shift

Even though the opening stretch of March is unseasonably warm, Griffin says that warmth likely won’t last the entire month.

A colder air mass is expected to push through the country around the middle of March.

The forecast points to an extremely mild pattern for the western half of the U.S. in March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“The warmer temperatures I don’t think are here to stay necessarily,” Griffin says. “If we look at the following week’s pattern, this is around March 13th to the 19th, we do see a cold front that passes through.”

That cold front will help bring temperatures closer to normal across portions of the eastern Corn Belt, he says.

“It will help, especially for some of you folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, really knock down those temperatures a little bit,” Griffin says.

In addition to cooler temperatures, the system could bring another round of precipitation and even some late-season winter weather for northern areas.

“This would be a window for a sneaky wintery weather threat,” he says. “The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, through Michigan and into the interior Northeast—not impossible.”

Active Storm Track Through March

Even beyond that system, Griffin says the broader weather pattern remains active through the remainder of March, especially in the eastern half of the country.

“Once again, I’m going to sound a little bit like a broken record,” Griffin says. “The Eastern Ag Belt and the Northeast, where the rain I think can be above normal in those spots.”

The active storm track could also bring severe weather risks at times as the region transitions deeper into spring.

Above normal to much above normal precipitation is in the forecast for the eastern part of the U.S., along with the northern tier of the country, as we finish March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“At times, not only this week but last week as well, there is some potential severe weather associated with this as we head into the first half of March,” he says.

Looking further into the month, Griffin says the divide between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions becomes more pronounced.

“Later into March, I do think we continue to see this active weather pattern into the Eastern Ag Belt in particular,” he says.

Forecast maps show significantly above-normal precipitation stretching from Ohio southward through Kentucky and Tennessee.

“Our latest forecast shows much above normal rains into Ohio, down into Kentucky, into Tennessee,” Griffin says.

Because of the ongoing storm activity, he says it would not be surprising to see additional severe weather events during the period.

“That active weather pattern remains,” he says. “Wouldn’t be shocked to see some bouts of severe weather.”

Meanwhile, conditions further west are trending in the opposite direction.

“It’s going to be a bit of an Ag Belt divided,” Griffin says. “Wet east, dry to the west.”

Temperatures are also expected to fluctuate frequently as the pattern evolves.

“We’re going to see ups and downs in our temperatures,” Griffin says. “I do think it’ll be a little bit of a roller coaster ride.”

He points to another cooler stretch likely developing around the third week of March.

“We get around March 18th through the 22nd, it’s probably going to be a little colder,” he says.

El Niño Influence Builds Into Spring

As the calendar turns to April, Griffin says longer-range indicators show an emerging El Niño pattern beginning to influence weather across the United States.

“What I think starts to occur is we start to feel a little more influence of our emerging El Niño,” Griffin says.

April’s weather pattern is shaping up to be divided, with below normal precipitation for parts of the West, and above normal precip in the South, along the Atlantic Coast and in the Northeast.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

That shift could move the corridor of heavier rainfall slightly farther south and east.

“What that’s going to do is shift the above-normal rains a little bit further to the south and to the east,” he says.

Areas such as northeastern Texas and the Tennessee and Kentucky River valleys may see an increased focus for precipitation.

“Where I think the focus of the rain will be is areas into say northeastern Texas into the Tennessee, Kentucky River valleys and some of those areas as well,” Griffin says.

Even so, parts of the central Corn Belt could still see periodic rain events.

“If you’re in areas eastern Iowa to Ohio, I still think there’s some rainfall opportunities there,” he says.

Watching Frost and Moisture Into May

Temperature patterns may also turn somewhat cooler in parts of the Plains during April.

“I do think this will be a little bit of a colder pattern, especially for some of you folks in the Northwestern Plains into the Northern Plains,” Griffin says.

He also says early April could bring the possibility of additional late-season winter weather in some regions.

“We may have some early April sneaky winter events as well,” he says.

May looks to turn dry in the heart of the U.S., with below normal temperatures in the east and heat in the West.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

By May, the broader weather pattern may shift again as the El Niño signal strengthens.

“I think the colder air that we talked about in April does start to bleed to the east,” Griffin says.

At that point, rainfall may concentrate more heavily across the southern tier of the country.

“We continue to see this transition more into this El Niño,” he says. “The southern jet stream is just going to be a little bit more energetic.”

That setup could bring above-normal rainfall to the desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S.

“I think that’s where the rain, above normal rains, are going to be more focused,” Griffin says.

Meanwhile, parts of the Plains may trend drier as spring progresses.

“You can see much below normal at this point into areas into the Plains—the Northern Plains, the Central Plains,” he says.

Despite those shifts, Griffin says the temperature outlook for May does not currently suggest extreme heat.

“At this point we’re not talking about any extreme temperatures one way or the other,” he says.

He notes the dryness across parts of the western Ag Belt could become a concern if it persists.

“All of the outlooks I mentioned out further to the west and to the Western Ag Belt were relatively dry,” Griffin says.

Still, he says there is at least some positive news in the seasonal outlook.

“I guess if there’s one silver lining… I don’t think we’re talking necessarily about extreme heat at this time,” he says.

One additional factor farmers will be watching closely is the possibility of a late spring frost in northern areas.

“I do think we need to watch May as far as late frost concerns,” Griffin says.

Regions such as the Northern Plains, Michigan and the Northeast may face the greatest risk.

“Those would be areas at risk for a late frost,” he says.

However, Griffin says the broader Corn Belt may largely avoid that issue this year.

“For much of the Ag Belt, to be honest, I just think this year we largely avoid that risk,” he says.

Bottom Line for Planting

For many growers, though, the biggest immediate concern is the wet start to the planting season.

With repeated storms expected across the eastern Corn Belt, Griffin says field conditions will likely remain too wet to support widespread early planting.

“Especially east of Iowa, it’s just not going to happen in my opinion,” Griffin says.

He says the persistent rainfall throughout March and April makes early fieldwork unlikely in many areas.

“It’s just too wet for March, too much rain in April,” Griffin says. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”

Colorado Farmer May Be Forced to Idle 75% of Acres Due to Record-Low Snowpack

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 15:54:52 GMT

A dry, unseasonably warm January has left much of the West staring at one of the leanest snow years in decades, raising red flags for farmers, ranchers and rural communities that depend on mountain snowpack for water. With some farmers facing water allocations near 0%, they say if nothing changes, they’ll be forced to leave valuable acres fallow — simply because they don’t have the irrigation water to support growing crops this year.

According to the National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS), snow cover across the Western U.S. on Feb. 1 measured just 139,322 square miles — the lowest February 1 extent in the MODIS satellite record, which dates back to 2001.

At the state level, the numbers are just as stark. As of Feb. 1, Oregon, Colorado and Utah have each reported record-low statewide snowpack. NIDIS says widespread SNOTEL monitoring stations in those states date back to the early 1980s, underscoring how unusual this year’s deficit has become.

Major Basins in Trouble From Lack of Snow

Several critical water supply basins are already in severe snow drought, including the Deschutes River Basin, Humboldt River Basin, Yakima River Basin, Rio Grande Basin and the Upper Colorado River Basin. That’s important because these basins feed irrigation systems, municipal water supplies and hydropower infrastructure across the West.

For agriculture, the implications are significant. Snowpack acts as a natural reservoir, storing winter precipitation and releasing it gradually during spring and summer to feed critical irrigation. When that reserve shrinks, so does confidence in irrigation allocations and summer stream flows, with the warning signs already there.

Snow water equivalent values for watersheds in the Western U.S.

(NIDIS)

January is typically a cornerstone month for snow accumulation across the Pacific Northwest and northern Rockies. Instead, much of the region received 50% or less of normal precipitation. Persistent high-pressure systems brought sunny skies and above-normal temperatures, limiting snow accumulation and even triggering melt in some areas.

On the Ground in Colorado

For Marc Arnusch, a farmer in Keenesburg, Colorado , the snow numbers translate directly into hard planting decisions — ones he’s already forced to face.

“Our issues aren’t so much market-driven. They’re driven by water scarcity,” Arnusch says. “We haven’t had any measurable moisture on our farm since early October. And so we’re really struggling on what it’s going to look like to put a crop out there in the field.”

The drought picture in Colorado is dire. According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, 73% of the state is faced with dry conditions. More than half of the state is seeing drought.

Arnusch says with drought already in the picture, irrigation will be vital — but that doesn’t look likely. He says his ditch district’s current water allocation sits at 0%.

“It can change. It always has, it always will,” he adds. “But imagine going with a Plan A of your crop plan. You’ve got markets on the other side that are demanding your production. How do you bridge that gap if you can’t produce?”

If conditions don’t improve, Arnusch says he may be forced to prevent plant roughly 75% of his acres this year.

“We will preventative plant, if nothing changes, three-quarters of our farming operation this year because we simply do not have the water. In a worst-case scenario, if our water allocation is zero, what do you grow with that?” he says.

Arnusch operates a 5,000-acre farm, focusing on diversified, high-value and certified seed crops to support local industries. His primary crops include certified seed wheat, certified seed barley, specialty grains for the craft brewing and distilling industry, corn, alfalfa and black-eyed peas.

Arnusch was named 2025 Top Producer of the Year and has built a successful farming career off of his ability to take bold risks while constantly searching for new sources of demand. But he says competition for limited water supplies only adds to the uncertainty this year.

“With the competing interest for water, especially growing crops this close to the Front Range, people tend to come first,” he says.

While his operation has built diversification and vertical integration, along with a network of loyal growers to help fill contracts when local production falls short, he worries about the longer-term impact to not just his farm, but the entire area.

“We had a balance sheet that will help us at least weather this storm, maybe another storm,” Arnusch says. “But I’m getting concerned of what we might erode on our balance sheet maybe two and three years out.”

Shrinking Snow Line and Runoff

Warm conditions have also shifted the snow line in the mountains. Higher elevations are holding snow, but many lower-elevation zones have seen little accumulation or outright melt.

Reduced snow cover at lower elevations can lead to earlier drying of soils and rangeland, increasing the risk of a longer and more intense wildfire season . It can also reduce runoff efficiency as spring arrives, meaning less water ultimately reaches reservoirs and canals.

For producers already watching input costs and water allocations closely, that adds another layer of uncertainty heading into planting season.

Economic Ripple Effects

Snowpack is also an economic engine in the West. Rural Western communities rely on winter recreation, agriculture and energy production tied directly to mountain snow.

The impacts are already being felt in the recreation sector, with ski areas and tourism-dependent towns facing thin coverage and shorter seasons. Water supply concerns are also mounting for agriculture and hydropower generation, sectors that depend on predictable spring runoff.

Meanwhile, other parts of the West have seen a different story. Just weeks ago, California’s snowpack and drought picture looked far more favorable, underscoring how quickly conditions can shift, for better or worse.

A Narrowing Window

A potential pattern shift could bring wetter-than-normal conditions to parts of the West leading into spring; however, forecasts still favor warmer-than-normal temperatures across large areas, which could limit how much new precipitation sticks as snow.

Abundant snowfall over the next couple of months could still reduce the worst impacts. But for now, the West’s snowpack picture is one of historically low coverage at a time of year when mountains should be steadily building their reserves.

For farmers like Arnusch, that means making contingency plans and hoping winter isn’t finished yet.

Wildfires have also ravaged the Plains over the past week. You can see why conditions have been so ripe for the devastating wildfires, and concerns about a warmer-than-normal pattern in those areas.

Worst Winter Storm in a Decade Sets Sights on Weekend Mayhem

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 22:27:34 GMT

Weather models are predicting one of the biggest winter storms in years as an arctic cold front shoulders its way south, setting a collision course with subtropical moisture from the Gulf. The result could be up to 2' of snow, freezing rain, up to an inch of ice and temperatures in the single digits across more than 2,000 miles from Texas to the Carolinas.

“We’re talking about probably once in a decade type event here,” says USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We haven’t seen a storm like this in exactly 10 years, since Jan. 22 and 23 of 2016.”

He says that storm that brought 18" to 30" of snow to Washington, D.C., but had a much larger impact across the Lower 48. This storm is different because it combines not just precipitation but also bitter cold.

“There’s going be some 1' to 2' [snow] totals stretching across the Ozarks plateau, probably just south of the Ohio river and possibly into the northern mid-Atlantic,” Rippey says. “South of that is where we could see extended power outages related to ice accumulations that could be 0.5" to 1".”

Watch for Ice and Bitter Cold

Rippey says the heaviest ice impacts are likely to be from northeastern Texas across to the mid-south. Power outages are expected and restoration of services are likely to take several days or even weeks, depending on the severity.

For the areas that don’t see heavy snow or ice, the issue will be bitterly cold temperatures. Parts of North Dakota, across the upper Great Lakes, expect temperatures of -30°F. While the North will see the worst of the cold, the outbreak is likely to be felt across two-thirds of the country, including the South.

“This is a part of the country where cattle are not accustomed to this type of environment,” Rippey adds. “It’s going to be important to try to guard against getting too wet and too cold.”

Operations that have cows calving in the northern Plains normally have calving facilities, but in the southern Plains and Southeast, that may not be the case. Veterinarians suggest livestock owners develop a contingency plan to be ready for the impending storm.

“Can you get power to your wells or your tank heaters,” asks Dr. Robin Falkner, a technical service veterinarian with Elanco Animal Health. “Can you crank your tractor? Do you have the water you need or can you feed your cattle? Where’s your best hay? Can you get to it? Can you roll out some bales of hay to get them off the cold, wet ground? What can you do to make sure your system doesn’t collapse?”

The National Weather Prediction Center says this is what to expect.

(NWS)

Rippey says for parts of the southern Plains, this could be the biggest winter weather event since the great arctic outbreak of February 2021. He believes winter wheat producers will also need to keep an eye on the crop in areas where it might have extended exposure to subzero temperatures.

What’s Driving This Storm

While you can blame La Niña for the dryness across the country, this incoming winter storm system isn’t happening in isolation. Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the broader weather pattern favors repeated intrusions of Arctic air, which helps fuel winter storms farther south than usual.

“The reality is this: Unlocking more Arctic air is a possibility through the remainder of January and February,” he says. “So I don’t think we’re done with this more southern storm track.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean every storm will be this severe. He says there could be a couple more winter storms before this winter is over, but he doesn’t think they’ll be at the velocity of this one. Rippey adds that this doesn’t appear to be the beginning of a new cold and stormy weather pattern. He calls it a one-storm anomaly and expects the cold and winter weather to return to its northern perch by mid-February.

Snodgrass points out what’s missing from the pattern is just as important as what’s present. He says the absence of El Niño is a major reason the U.S. has leaned so heavily on cold air to generate precipitation.

“What we don’t have is what we want, which is El Niño,” he says. “If we had an El Niño, I’d be talking about nonstop flow out of the southwest, kicking off storms through the mid-South, the Delta.”

Instead, farmers are dealing with a colder, harsher setup.

“This winter though, we’ve got to get Arctic air down in order to kick off good snows across these drier places,” Snodgrass says.

The Silver Lining: Moisture

The only silver lining might be the moisture the storm brings to areas currently experiencing drought or dryness.

“We have seen more than 40% of the country in varying degrees of drought each week, going back to mid-September,” Rippey says. “Once this snow and ice begins to melt, it will percolate into the soils and actually could provide quite a benefit for some of those drought-stricken areas in the South where we’ve had trouble with pasture conditions and surface water supplies.”

“If you look from the southern Plains through the Delta and mid-South and look at the, since the beginning of winter, Dec. 1, the rank of how dry it’s been, it’s like in the top five,” Snodgrass says. “And in some places, the driest start to anyone on record.”

That context makes the incoming storm especially critical. While travel disruptions, ice and power outages are likely, Snodgrass emphasizes the sheer amount of moisture involved.

“I hate it that it’s a massive winter storm, and it’s extremely disruptive, and it is going be a problem,” he says. “But there’s up to 3" of liquid in this, and we need every bit of that.”

How Long will the Cold Last

For producers watching soil moisture and river levels, Snodgrass offers perspective but also encourages patience.

“Spring can undo all of winter’s sins,” he says. “So by the time we get into March and April, we can recover these significant losses in soil. The rivers can come back up, and we can start to see a better start.”

Still, the concern isn’t evenly spread across the country. In southern Texas, drought pressure is already immediate.

“You have to remember, right now in Texas, they’re already scratching dirt and planting corn,” Snodgrass says “So you’ve got folks down there that are more concerned about this drought because it’s hitting them right now.”

For most of the Corn Belt and Plains, Snodgrass says waiting might be the best course of action.

“For the rest of us, we can be patient and wait,” he says. “And that’s what I would advise folks to do for the next couple of months.”

Icy winter storm conditions are forecast across parts of Texas through the weekend.

AgriLife Extension encourages Texans to take steps now to protect their families, homes and property. Winter storms can create dangerous conditions, including power outages, hazardous travel and… pic.twitter.com/DDncSrhLq7
— Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service (@txextension) January 22, 2026

Winter-Proof Your Workforce: Keeping Employees Warm on the Job

Tue, 09 Jan 2024 17:31:51 GMT

What started as a mild winter is bound to become brutal as plunging, dangerous temperatures sweep across much of the U.S. While most of the country will stay bundled up inside, farmers and their employees don’t have the luxury of skipping work for a snow day.

To create a safe and comfortable work environment for your farm employees, it’s important to address the specific challenges posed by cold weather on the farm. As temperatures begin to drop, consider implementing the following tips to keep your crew safe, warm and productive:

Make Sure They Have Adequate Clothing

Dressing poorly shouldn’t be considered “cool,” especially when it comes to harsh winter weather conditions on the farm. However, not all employees know how to appropriately dress for the bitter weather. Consider providing them with the following checklist and keeping a few extra items in a bin for employees to use in case they forget.

Some examples of warm winter clothing include:

Lined jackets
Lined overalls
Stocking caps / hats and lined gloves
Long thermal underwear
Lined boots – waterproof and anti-slip
Wicking wool socks
Scarf

Provide Warm Break Areas

Working out in the cold can take a toll on the body. That’s why it’s necessary to take frequent breaks to rest and warm up. To keep employees going, be sure to create designated warm break areas for your employees to recuperate.

Offer snacks that are not only tasty but also provide energy. Nutritious options like trail mix, energy bars, and fruits can help replenish energy levels. You can also supply a selection of hot beverages like coffee, tea or hot chocolate. If employees are coming in from wet or snowy conditions, consider having a designated area with a drying rack for wet outerwear, gloves, and boots.

Adjust Schedules

Adjusting schedules in the winter is a practical strategy to address the challenges and potential hazards associated with cold weather. Along with allowing more frequent breaks to prevent prolonged exposure to the cold, consider scheduling more grueling outdoor tasks during the warmer parts of the day.

Keep Up Communication

Safety concerns rise as cold weather intensifies. This rings true for not only our employees, but livestock as well. Keep the lines of communication open with employees to address concerns and gather feedback on their comfort and to learn if areas of the farm need immediate attention.

Work in Pairs

While farmers are already hard-pressed to find labor, working in pairs allows employees to get the job done quickly and safely. Using the buddy system ensures that every employee is accounted for and that the work gets done in a timely fashion. This system is especially important for employees working in remote areas.

Have an Emergency Kit

Winter weather can be unpredictable. Having an emergency kit in a well-known location can be a lifesaver when it comes to coping with unexpected challenges. Keep your kit filled with the essentials, such as:

Medical supplies
Extra clothing
Blankets
Handwarmers
Flashlights
Non-perishable snacks

Know the Signs of Cold Stress

Hypothermia and frostbite are the two most common forms of cold stress and can be fatal if left untreated. To help minimize the risk of these conditions going unnoticed, make sure to review and be on the lookout for the following symptoms.

Signs of Hypothermia:

Fast and shallow breathing / trouble breathing.
Going from shivering to not shivering.
Hunger, fatigue and confusion.
Lack of coordination.
Increased heart rate.
Weak pulse.
Slurred speech / mumbling.
Dizziness and nausea.

Signs of Frostbite:

Cold skin, prickling feeling and numbness.
Red, white, bluish-white or grayish-yellow skin.
Hard or waxy-looking skin.
Clumsiness due to joint and muscle stiffness.
Blistering after rewarming when severe (expect exposed skin to peel off).
If the skin turns black seek medical attention..

Meteorologists Say to Prepare For An Active December

Wed, 26 Nov 2025 19:03:07 GMT

For those in the Midwest, a low pressure system arrived Tuesday night bringing strong winds — a wide area of wind advisories — and for some winter precipitation.

“Wisconsin is having an amazing snow event today,” says Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist for Nutrien, in his latest YouTube update. “There’s a blizzard warning in northern Wisconsin.”

Are there more rounds of snow coming and will it be widespread?
While Snodgrass says for most, Thanksgiving Day itself will be quiet-weather-wise, the day after brings increased interest for travel-effecting weather, especially for those east of the Rocky Mountains.

“There will be 10°F to 20°F temp drops through the northern Plains to the Gulf coast,” Snodgrass says. “Snow is more probably because of the cold temperatures — the transition line between rain and snow on Saturday night — we don’t know. It’s going to be a fine line.”

He points to parts of Missouri, Illinois, most of Iowa, Minnesota and all of Wisconsin and Michigan to see some snow. With Wisconsin and Michigan seeing models indicating snow totals from 1’ to 2’. There will be better precipitation chances for the southeast in the form of rain.

The precipitation event forecast comes with greater confidence heading into the holiday weekend.

“I was happy to see the models align this morning,” Snodgrass says.

Eric Snodgrass highlights the latest ECMWF Ensemble forecast for getting at least 3" and 6" of snow through Thanksgiving weekend.

(AgWx.com)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey notes some will see extreme cold for the first time this winter.

“Look for our first outbreak of sub-zero temperatures of the 25/26 winter season,” Rippey says. “And by Monday morning, December 1, those sub-zero temperatures will encompass large parts of the northern Plains and upper Midwest.”

And then early next week, there’s another system moving from the Mississippi delta through the southeast to bring additional rainfall totals.

Some areas that will remain dry through early December include the Canadian prairies, California and the southwest.

The First of Many
“It’s the post-Thanksgiving period that I’m most concerned about. We will be looking at a series of storms moving out of the northwest and eventually reaching the nation’s midsection,” Rippey says. “If you’re going to wait a little bit for heading home after the holiday, do look for some potential for very disruptive weather late Sunday into Monday, eventually reaching airports like Denver and spreading toward Chicago as we head into the first day of December.”

Rippey adds as we head into the winter months it’s reasonable to expect it to be colder and much more stormy across a vast swath of the country.

Normal La Niña Pattern to Return By Thanksgiving

Tue, 18 Nov 2025 21:47:22 GMT

What are the primary weather events being watched by the leading ag meteorologists right now? Here’s a round-up.

A Bit of an Oddball La Niña

“We need to be really careful about making big assumptions about this La Niña. It is not a classic La Niña,” says Drew Lerner, World Weather, Inc. He points to two large rain events in the southern U.S. Plains this past week.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey adds southern California has also received a lot of precipitation. He says it’s the timing and strength of the La Niña bringing a different pattern than could be expected.

“The big thing we’re watching is the fact that we’re in a La Niña during the month of September for the fifth time in six years,” Rippey says. “And with that, November’s been a little bit strange so far. We haven’t fully kicked into what you would expect to see with a La Niña regime.”

More Precipitation on Its Way

“We also have a lot of warm ocean water between Hawaii and California, so watch for more heavy rain, like we saw this week coming into California a little later in the winter,” Lerner says.

Rippey says people across the Great Plains can expect more storms through this week.

“Given the fact that we are heading into a La Niña winter, we need the moisture across the southern Plains now,” Rippey says. “It looks like more of a La Niña regime setting in for the latter part of November and certainly by Thanksgiving. By that I mean stormier, colder weather across the north, and some of that warm and dry weather should become more established across the South. It’ll be a while until we get there.”

The week of Thanksgiving is showing some increased chance for winter storms and perhaps travel-impactful weather events.

Droughty Conditions Bring Concerns

Dry weather persists in key grazing areas, which Matt Makens from Makens Weather says is his biggest concern for the rest of this year and early into 2026.

Lerner adds: “The northern Plains and neighboring areas of Canada’s prairies won’t see much precipitation. There’s still a big, bad drought up there, and they’re hoping for better moisture. But in the meantime, our wheat that’s in the soft wheat that’s in the lower Midwest bowl will get a nice drink of water.”

Pacific Storm Season Brought More Action Than the Atlantic

Reflecting on the ongoing hurricane season, Rippey says while it was indicated we could have an active season, there have been only 13 named storms and only five hurricanes.

Without any major storms making landfall in the U.S., Rippey points to a few factors:

“We had the African feeder storms, the thunderstorms that come off the African coast, came off a little further north than they normally would. And that put some of those thunderstorm complexes into a more hostile environment as they developed or tried to develop,” he says.
“We had a protective jet stream across the eastern United States, a little dip along the East Coast of the United States that really forced any developing storms to recurve before they ever reach the United States,” he says.

“A lot of that moisture ended up in the western United States eventually, remnant tropical moisture, and that certainly has helped to chip away at the drought across the western United States, courtesy of the active eastern Pacific season with 18 overall named storms,” Rippey adds.

Planting Season Outlook

While planting season is about five months away for many, the weather trends are tipping the scales to a slow start.

“I still have some confidence in saying that some of the northern areas of the country — northern plains, upper Midwest — could face a spring with a delayed warm-up,” Rippey says. “We could see some snowy cold conditions lingering into the early to mid-spring across some of those northern production areas. Typically coming out of La Niña, we do see a later planting season in the north, and we will have to watch drought in the south.”

La Niña Will Flip to El Niño

As for what’s ahead in the new year, Maken says while we might start with a La Niña, toward the end of the year, we’ll flip into an El Niño.

“And when you do this flip, it depends on how quickly it flips, because it can mean a lot of rainfall for a lot of folks,” he says. “And not that La Niña and El Niño are the end-all, be-alls, but they’re the major players in the room. Some really like hearing El Niño. Others really do not like the person saying that.”

Two Essential Factors For Preserving Corn & Soybean Quality In On-Farm Storage

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 21:17:52 GMT

As harvest finishes up, a high-stakes management process is getting underway inside countless on-farm grain bins. Farmers are working to keep corn and soybean crops in good condition until marketing opportunities hopefully improve.

Two key factors farmers will need to manage throughout the months ahead are temperature and moisture. Here is a number of recommendations Extension specialist offer to help growers in the process:

Temperature: A Guardian Of Grain Quality
Managing temperature in the bin is a cornerstone of effective grain storage. By carefully managing temperature levels, Ken Hellevang says farmers can significantly extend the quality of their stored grain and minimize the chance for incurring losses over winter.

“I like to say that for every 10 degrees that we cool the grain, we double the storage life,” notes Hellevang, emeritus professor of agriculture and biosystems engineering at North Dakota State University.

According to Iowa State University Extension , the ideal temperature range for storing grain during winter is between 30° F and 40° F.

If grain drops below 30° F, the risk of freezing and forming large chunks increases, which can cause problems when trying to empty the bin later, adds Reagan Tibbs , University of Illinois Commercial Agriculture Educator.

Monitoring and managing the grain temperature is a critical piece of grain storage, emphasizes Hellevang, who addressed the topic on a recent Crop Science Podcast Show .

He says maintaining an optimal temperature offers a couple of critical benefits:
1. Spoilage prevention: Hellevang says temperature variations within the grain mass can create convection currents, leading to moisture migration and spoilage. Consistent temperature control helps maintain grain quality by minimizing the risks associated with moisture buildup and heat retention.

2. Insect control: Most insect activity significantly decreases below 55°F, and insects typically enter dormancy at temperatures below 50°F, Hellevang says.

“For those farmers in the northern country, where we have cold temperatures, if we bring the temperature down to freezing or even a little below that, we can actually kill insects,” he adds.

Aeration should be done routinely throughout the winter to maintain cool and even temperatures in the bin, according to Iowa State University Extension . Uneven temperatures in the grain bin can occur when the grain mass isn’t cool enough going into winter, resulting in cooler grain along the bin walls and warmer grain in the core. This temperature difference can cause convection currents that deposit moisture on the grain surface, causing spoilage and crusting.

Other reasons for uneven temperatures in the bin include solar heating of grain under the roof and along the bin walls, as well as heating from insect and mold activity. Iowa State recommends leveling the grain surface to improve aeration and prevent issues caused by accumulated fines by spreading grain or coring the bin .

University of Minnesota Extension recommends covering fans when they are off to prevent severe weather and temperature changes from affecting the bin. Covers made of canvas, tarp, or even plywood can be used for this purpose.

Moisture Management Is Essential
Hellevang likes to remind farmers that there’s a difference between market moisture and storage moisture.

For corn, he says the market moisture is about 15.5%. But corn going into long-term storage, at or beyond 6 months, needs to be maintained at 13% to 14% moisture.

“We also need to be a little concerned about not getting grain too dry, because the drier it gets, the more brittle it becomes, and we see more breakage issues,” he says, adding: “The market really doesn’t reward you for bringing in 10% moisture corn. They’d like to be handling that 13%, 14% moisture corn.”

Hellevang adds that every region of the country is a “little different” on what they find are ideal moisture levels for grain in storage.

As part of maintaining ideal temperature and moisture levels, Tibbs tells farmers to keep an eye on potential moisture migration in the bin.

“What can happen is when the temperature difference between the outside and inside the grain bin exceeds 20° F, the moisture content in the bin can increase toward the top. That raises the risk of grain crusting, which can reduce grain quality and pose safety concerns when checking bins,” Tibbs explains.

Monitor Grain Throughout The Storage Period
Hellevang suggests checking stored grain every two weeks. While checking on the grain, measure and record the grain temperature and moisture content. Rising grain temperature may indicate insect or mold problems. Insect infestations can increase from being barely noticeable to major infestations in three to four weeks when the grain is warm, he adds.

Checking the grain moisture content is important because moisture measurements at harvest may have been in error due to moisture gradients in the kernel, grain temperature, and other factors. When checking the moisture content of stored grain, Hellevang advises following the manufacturer’s procedure for obtaining an accurate moisture measurement.

Your next read: Anhydrous Ammonia: One Small Mistake Can Have Life-Changing Consequences

Widespread Warmth, Lingering Drought Dominate Early November Outlook

Wed, 05 Nov 2025 15:54:00 GMT

It’s been an unusually warm start to November, a trend that’s gripping the West and preventing moisture from reaching areas that need it. But that trend could shift later in the month, at least in terms of temperatures.

Several parts of the U.S. experienced their warmest November days on record in 2025, including Denver, Colo., and Tucson, Ariz. Other locations like Goodland, Kan., Sidney, Neb., and La Junta, Colo., also set daily record highs. But just how high are we talking?

Denver : Broke its all-time record November high, reaching 83°F and significantly exceeding the previous record of 78°F
Tucson : Set a record for the hottest day of the year on Saturday with 88°F, then broke its own record the next day with 92°F
Cheyenne : Recorded its latest-ever 70°F
San Jose : Reached 80°F

Meteorologist Brian Bledsoe, of Brian Bledsoe Weather, says through the first half of November, he expects above-normal temperatures across the western two-thirds of the country, with the Southeast seeing slightly cooler conditions.

“The western two-thirds of the country are just going to be a blowtorch,” he says.

Not Good News for Chances of Rain

It’s not just the warmth, but also the lack of moisture in the forecast. Bledsoe says rain chances will stay limited for most regions, especially the Mid-Mississippi Valley and the Gulf Coast, where below-normal precipitation is likely. The Pacific Northwest and parts of the Northern Rockies are the exceptions, potentially seeing wetter-than-average conditions.

“We’re continuing to build on some of these dry areas that have expanded across much of the country,” Bledsoe says. “If you look at the current drought monitor, there’s still a good bit of the country suffering from drought.”

The most recent look at the U.S. Drought Monitor paints a troubling picture heading into winter.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

He notes that drought persists in the Southwest, where the monsoon season failed to deliver consistent rainfall. Washington, Idaho, and northwest Montana are also struggling with dryness, while parts of the Corn Belt — and even sections of the Northeast — remain abnormally dry.

“Absolutely, we have areas we need to work on,” he says. “But the current pattern just isn’t conducive to big storms bringing widespread moisture.”

Ridge Holds Firm Across the West

Bledsoe explains a strong ridge of high pressure anchored over the interior West — covering Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico — is pushing most storm systems northward.

A look at how the warmth will shift in November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

“That ridge is basically diverting the storm track,” he says. “Meanwhile, farther east — across the eastern Great Lakes and into the far eastern Corn Belt — we’ll be under the influence of a trough of low pressure. That brings a few chances for colder air and maybe some brief moisture, but it’s not a setup for big storms.”

Pattern Shift Possible Later in November

There is some hope for change as the month progresses. Long-range European models show the upper-level ridge beginning to weaken, opening the door for a more active storm track.

“As that ridge gradually breaks down, we’ll start to see less of the drier-than-average pattern,” Bledsoe says. “Areas farther north will likely see moisture first, and then hopefully that extends farther south into the Plains.”

Precipitation outlook for the first half of November.

(Brian Bledsoe )

Snow in the Forecast?

While the heat was the headline to start November, and continues to be the case in the western U.S., there will be a blip of not just cooler air, but much colder air that could bring snow to the central and eastern parts of the country. But it won’t last long.

AccuWeather says you’ll need to brace for a big change this weekend and early next week in the central and eastern United States . AccuWeather meteorologists warn the weather pattern indicates a surge of cold air and at least one storm capable of producing a band of accumulating snow across parts of the Midwest, followed by lake-effect snow and perhaps a bit of snow in portions of the Appalachians to the south.

AccuWeather says cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast.

(AccuWeather)

AccuWeather is calling it “Christmastime cold” that’s on the way.
Their meteorologists say a large push of cold air arrives this weekend, which will cause conditions to drastically change.

A significant dip in the jet stream is forecast to begin this weekend for the Central and Eastern states.

“Temperatures will feel more like mid-December or even Christmastime in many places by next week,” AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Meteorologist Paul Pastelok says.

A storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

(AccuWeather )

But the cold air will fail to gain a lasting foothold for the remainder of this week, with significant temperature swings from one day to the next in the Midwest and Northeast, according to AccuWeather.

It may be temporary, but the colder air will bring chances of accumulating snow in areas of the Midwest and the Appalachians that are farther south and rather low in elevation, according to AccuWeather. The storm is forecast to track along the boundary of the advancing cold air from this weekend in the Midwest to early next week in the Northeast.

“As we see it now, the most likely time for snow showers in Chicago that can bring a small accumulation is late Saturday night to Sunday morning,” Pastelok says. “Around Detroit the most likely timing for accumulating snow showers is from Sunday morning to Sunday midday.”

While an excessive accumulation of snow is not anticipated on the roads, AccuWeather says the snow can fall at a heavy enough rate near the Interstate 94 and 80/90 corridor to make for slushy conditions in some areas.

Frost Forecast Threatens Corn And Soybeans This Week

Wed, 03 Sep 2025 11:32:47 GMT

Frost isn’t a four-letter word, but it sure seems like one at this point in the growing season, when corn and soybeans are packing on starch and finalizing yield.

Brett Walts, meteorologist with BAMWX.com, predicts a potential frost for multiple days now for parts of the north-central U.S. and southern Canada. He says this is the earliest he has ever forecast freezing temperatures.

“Much of North Dakota is under that risk, and northern parts of Minnesota as well. For central Wisconsin I wouldn’t 100% roll out the risk in outlying and low-lying areas, even into parts of South Dakota and southern Minnesota,” Walts tells Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk.

We continued to be concern about frost risks in the N. Plains and Upper-Midwest later this week into the weekend.

Latest blend forecast for Thursday, Saturday and Sunday indicate multi-day risk and *typically* these trend cooler with time. pic.twitter.com/rarcKEGgCK
— BAM Weather (@bam_weather) September 2, 2025

A corn-killing freeze occurs when temperatures dip to 32 degrees Fahrenheit for four hours or 28 degrees for minutes, according to an online article by University of Minnesota Extension. A killing freeze can still happen with temperatures above 32, especially in low and unprotected areas when there’s no wind.

How much corn yield could be lost to freeze is tough to predict, but it could be significant, according to Troy Deutmeyer, Pioneer field agronomist.

“It is extremely difficult to predict but corn around half-milk line that dies will have yields cut around 10% according to older studies. With today’s late-season grain fill and kernel flex I feel the number is closer to 15%,” he says in a post to X. See his full comments below.

How much yield will premature death in my corn cut yield???

It is extremely difficult to predict but corn around half milk line that dies will have yields cut around 10% according to older studies. With today's late season grain fill and kernel flex I feel the number is closer… pic.twitter.com/U97lfOU6uy
— Pioneer Troy (@deutmeyer_troy) September 2, 2025

“Between the fourth [of September] and the eighth, it’s going to be pretty consistently down into the 30s and 40s for temperature lows in that region,” Walts says.

Timing-wise, Walts anticipates the frost threat is a multi-day risk, moving in by late tonight or early Thursday and staying through Sunday.

Corn Is Vulnerable In Cold, Wet Conditions

“We’d talked about how the corn crop needs some cooler temperatures, but these are not the kind of cooler temperatures we were talking about, that’s for sure – especially up in North Dakota, northern South Dakota, into central Minnesota,” Flory says.

Freeze damage in corn near Nicollet, Minn., that occurred Sept. 13, 2014. Notice how the corn leaves appear water-soaked.

(University of Minnesota Extension)

“There’s a lot of corn up there that could still benefit from a lot more growing season,” he adds “If we get into this prolonged period ofcold temperatures, even if we don’t see a frost, it can have a negative impact on the yield potential up there. No question about that.”

Walts says as the calendar moves past Sept. 10, temperatures will moderate for several days, but he doesn’t expect the warming trend to stay. Instead, he says it will be short-lived, with another cold front arriving in the same region around September 15.

Rain Could Add To The Frost Problem

Walts adds there is the likelihood that some of the areas under the frost watch could endure bouts of rain, though he anticipates they will be patchy.

“It’s going to be these messy, scattered showers and storms along these fronts,” he notes. “I would say areas that could pick up maybe more than a half an inch of rain will be across Minnesota, maybe northern parts of Iowa. But I think the further south and east you go across Illinois and Indiana, eastern Missouri, the messier that it is, and more likely some areas will be skipped over.”

Some of the skipped over regions include the far Northwest and West, both of which are likely to remain rain-free over the next week, Walts adds.

His complete forecast is available on AgriTalk here:

Your next read: Southern Rust Set To Take Big Bite Out Of Midwest Corn Crop?

As Temperatures Near 100 Degrees in the Upper Midwest, Does it Signal a Bigger Problem for Summer?

Tue, 13 May 2025 17:11:10 GMT

The weather this week just might prove how unusual the spring of 2024 has been. From the disparities in moisture, to temperature swing of 60°F in just a matter of days in North Dakota, the weather pattern is abnormal, and weather models are confused on snowfall totals even 10 days out.

Eric Snodgrass, Science Fellow and Principal Atmospheric Scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says this spring has been anything but normal.

“I don’t think anybody has told me, ‘This spring’s been pretty much what I expected.’ I think most folks have been saying, ‘Wow, when is this [rain] going to quit so I can get in the fields versus, hey, we got everything done early. Just don’t send a frost my way.’”

Just last weekend, cool temperatures gripped the Great Lakes with frost warnings. And with another cold blast on the way for the Plains and northwest this weekend the temperature swings continue.

“Some folks are still battling with those cold late spring temperatures” Snodgrass says. “But I think that you’re going to look back on spring of 2025 and think this didn’t look anything like 2023, and it definitely doesn’t look like 2024. Are we looking at something entirely different for this growing season than our past few years for reference? And I think the answer to that is yes.”

Weather Whiplash Hits the Northern Plains

North Dakota reached record-breaking temperatures already this week. The National Weather Services (NWS) in Bismark reports a record temperatures of 97°F on Monday, which beat the previous record of 92°F set in 1880.

Four record high temperatures were set or tied at primary climate sites in western through central North Dakota today. #ndwx pic.twitter.com/bNQz1qN4z6
— NWS Bismarck (@NWSBismarck) May 13, 2025

Those temperatures will drop to near freezing by this weekend with some models even pointing to snow. Snodgreass says the weather models aren’t in agreement about snowfall amounts, but one thing is certain: it will get much colder.

The storm system Snodgrass is watching will hit early next week, but he says the models are confused and not handling the cold and snow risk very well.

And this just keeps getting "better". The 18Z GFS on Sunday is off the rails with snow over the next 10-days. https://t.co/Ij3MRkMOgU pic.twitter.com/Thb93bgMzK
— Eric Snodgrass (@snodgrss) May 12, 2025

This is the GFS model run on Sunday pointed to as much as 2' of snow in parts of North Dakota and South Dakota early next week. Snodgrass says that model has been unreliable recently, so don’t bank on that.

“The GFS has been having serious problem lately,” Snodgrass told AgWeb. “Do not rely on the GFS right now.”

Snowfall forecast according to the latest Euro model.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Meanwhile, the European mode also shows snow in the forecast, but Snodgrass says he doesn’t trust that model either. However, he says temperatures will drop even further before the snow chances next week.

“There are a pair of deeper lows that are following each other,” he says. “The first comes through and increases the severe storm risk Thursday and Friday, and the second one feeds on the cold air behind the first dropping temps even further giving rise to the chance for snow.”

Disparity in Moisture So Far This Spring

The good news is those cooler temperatures will come with chances of moisture, which will fall in areas of the country that need it. But that moisture will also hit the mid-South, an area that can’t seem to catch a break from the rain.

“Take a look at parts of the mid-South getting over to the southern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I mean Oklahoma and Texas, we’ve got places that have had five to six times their normal amount of rainfall in the last 30 days. And then you go just north of it. Corners of Kansas, Colorado, most of Nebraska, Western Iowa, pockets of Illinois, Minnesota. You have spots that are like, hey, share the rain a little bit. And they’re looking at very, very dry conditions.”

Precipitation Over the Past 30 Days

(Eric Snodgrass)

The agricultural meteorologist is most concerned about Nebraska. He says it’s not just the fact that area has been lacking moisture recently, but the fact disappointing moisture over the winter is creating a deficit for subsoil moisture.

“We have very low soil moisture values in pockets of the western Corn Belt, while soils are completely saturated across the southern tier of the United States in pockets in the Northeast,” Snodgrass says. “So when you look at that, it’s the story of who’s been getting the rain and who’s not, and this spring has not been very equitable in the delivery of that rainfall.”

Soil moisture map

(Eric Snodgrass)

Drought Risk Still a Concern for Summer

The Climate Prediction Center recently released its outlook for summer, saying “ENSO-neutral will continue through the Northern Hemisphere summer and early autumn 2025.” The CPC says the forecast also favors ENSO-neutral with chances nearing 50% during the autumn.

What does this mean? Snodgrass says you don’t need a La Niña to produce drought.

“There’s often a thought process that you have to have a La Niña in order to have a drought in the summer in the Midwest. You don’t, right? The actual more important thing is the ocean temperatures off the Baja of California or in the Gulf of Alaska,” says Snodgrass. “We’ve already got cold ocean temperatures off the Bay of California. If we kind of double whammy that up with cold water in the Gulf of Alaska or even all the way back over toward Japan, hugging the land, that is the recipe for problems.”

The reason drought this summer is still a concern.

(Eric Snodgrass)

Snodgrass says the forecast for June, July and August is pointing to risks of dryness, especially in July. Even the newer European model is indicating the growing chance of dryness this summer.

“Here’s the lesson: If in the next 40 days, those water temperatures warm, you know what’s going on? The atmosphere is gaining momentum,” Snodgrass says. “If it gains momentum, we tend to have more frequent weather systems and no major risk of drought. If they stay cool, we tend to have greater risk of central United States drought. That’s what I’m watching most closely over the next 45 days.”

Preciptitaion Forecast for June through August.

(Eric Snodgrass)

This Winter's Lack of Snow Cover Could Spell Trouble for Drought in These Areas

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 20:02:43 GMT

It was the winter that wasn’t for some areas of the U.S. Farmers located in the upper Plains, northern Plains and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, they experienced the winter that wasn’t, now sitting 10" to 30" short on normal snowfall.

It’s been the “haves” and “have nots” when it comes to moisture. April started with monsoon rains that brought flooding all the way from southern and eastern Arkansas to the Ohio Valley. According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, some of those areas saw their worst flooding since the spring of 1997.

“Some of these bottom lands and low lands that are filled with pastures and normally planted to crops, we’re going lose that, or we’re going to have to wait a long time to plant that this year. So, there’s certainly an impact with this early April flooding on top of the mid February flooding across the same general area,” Rippey says.

Observed flooding map

(NOAA )

While there’s too much moisture in the South, which is delaying planting for some, the lack of snow and moisture in the northern tier of states is bringing an early start to planting this year.

Rippey says if you draw a line just north of Kansas City directly east to Washington D.C., the area above that line is where he’s concerned about the lack of snow and what it means for soil moisture this spring.

“Pretty much folks north of theNorthern Plains, upper Midwest and Northeast came up short on snow for the 2024/25 season. In some cases, as much as 10" to 30" short,” Rippey says. “That’s a concern for those areas heading into the spring because they depend on melting snow to provide soil moisture in the spring for newly planted crops. So, if we were to have a dry spring and summer on top of that nearly snowless winter, that is where we get into concerns for drought, expansion or intensification heading into the heart of the growing season.”

Season-to-date snowfall maps shows just how dry it’s been across the northern tier of states.

(Brad Rippey/USDA )

Rippey points to the latest U.S. Drought Monitor , which shows elevated drought coverage compared to normal, in areas of Southern California into Texas. There’s also a second area of drought across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest that’s drawing his attention, which is the area that had very little snow over the winter.

“I think it’s really those two Western drought areas which have almost merged at this point where we do have big concerns for drought heading into the growing season,” Rippey says.

The latest map shows three main pockets of drought across the U.S.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

The National Weather Service Outlook (NOAA) seasonal outlook for May, June and July shows that stark line for moisture could continue.

“The precipitation outlook, unfortunately, shows odds are tilting toward dryness in a lot of the north central and northwestern United States. So, picture that fairly snow-less winter and then a potentially dry summer. Could that drought expand into the upper Midwest and the western Corn Belt? Yes, it certainly could. That’s one real area of agricultural concern for the summer of 2025,” Rippey says.

NOAA’s Seasonal Precipitation Outlook indicates areas already struggling with drought and dryness could see continued dry conditions through July.

(NOAA)

Rippey says areas of the country already dealing with dryness and drought are also areas that could struggle to see moisture May through July, according to NOAA.

“It looks like that haves and have nots may continue as you see that wet pattern across the East and hopefully a decent monsoon in the Southwest, but we’re gonna have to wait until July for that to move in,” Rippey says.

As for NOAA’s outlook on temperatures, the agency is forecasting much of the U.S. will see above-normal temperatures, with a pocket hovering over the four corners region in the bullseye for extreme heat.

NOAA’s Seasonal Temperature Outlook points to warmer conditions for much of the U.S. over the next three months.

(NOAA )

Is The Planting Light Red, Green Or Yellow?

Tue, 08 Apr 2025 18:30:36 GMT

When the race to plant crops gets underway in your area this spring, take care to not stumble at the starting gate, advises Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

One way to start strong is to evaluate weather and soil conditions to determine whether they’re signaling you have a red, green or yellow light for field work and planting.

“We don’t let the calendar, the coffee shop or neighbors dictate when we go to the field,” Ferrie says. “We do our own investigating and check all soil types, especially those in the lower topography parts of the field.”

Here are four considerations as you prepare for #planting2025:

1. Do The Ribbon Test
Jumping the gun with spring tillage and planting is costly. Ferrie points out that 80% of the compaction service calls he goes on each year can trace their roots back to the first pass the farmer made in the spring.

“Compaction put in by a field cultivator is a bad gift that keeps on giving all year long. You can’t take this gift back and get a redo,” he says.

Before you take off with spring tillage or plant, he advises checking conditions just under your tillage depth. It’s a practice that he calls making a soil ribbon.

Here are three simple steps to make a Soil Ribbon:

a. If you usually run a tillage tool 4” deep, take a shovel and dig down under that to about 5” deep.

b. Collect some soil in your hand and attempt to ball it up. If the soil is wet, it will readily ball up.

c. Once you get the soil balled up, squeeze it between your thumb and forefinger to see if you can make a ribbon about 1½” long.

“If you can make a ribbon, your tillage will not only put in a density change, but it will also put in a compaction layer. That’s a red light,” Ferrie says. “If you decide to move forward with tillage and planting, you probably will need to adjust your yield expectations later in the season as well as your marketing plan.”

Ferrie adds he has known growers who spent a lot of money and time the previous fall with deep tillage that got wiped out by one bad tillage pass the following spring. Don’t be that farmer this season.

2. Know the germ quality of your soybean and corn seed.

That can help you determine planting order or whether you need to check in with your seed supplier about making a product switch, notes Missy Bauer, Farm Journal Field Agronomist, based in south-central Michigan, near Coldwater.

Bauer says farmers are finding soybean seed is a mixed bag quality-wise this season, because of dry weather conditions that hammered much of the Midwest in 2024.

“Some of the seed that was harvested for soybeans last fall was under pretty dry conditions, 8%, 9% moisture, things like that,” she reports. “So, the seed quality this year has just been real up and down. We’ve had beans that are just awesome seed quality. And then we get another batch that comes in that’s got issues.”

For growers who might not have tested their soybean seed, she would say see what the cold germ scores are, because of the variation in quality.

“If you’re going to plant early, you want to know it can handle germinating in cold conditions, so we really encourage guys get seed tested,” she says.

With seed corn, if you have seed that tests on the lower end of saturated cold score ranges, Ferrie says to plant that seed once conditions will enable the crop to emerge in five to six days.

“You guys putting starter in-furrow, keep in mind that severe pericarp damage scores tend to lead to more starter burn issues,” he adds. “When it comes to corn stands, many issues are solved when we plant corn based on soil conditions and not the calendar. This could be your highest-yielding corn crop of your career. Let’s not shoot ourselves in the foot before we start.”

Here are some additional thoughts on how to Test Your Seed Before Planting To Avoid Quality Issues

3. Avoid Corn Seed Chilling

To avoid seed chilling, Ferrie advises farmers to plant corn only under two conditions. First, check to see that the soil temperature is 50 degrees F or higher, and second, you want a promising weather forecast in the days following planting.

“One of the challenges of planting in soils that are 45° or lower is seed chilling,” Ferrie says. “When the corn seed imbibes moisture, the temperature of the water it takes in has an effect on the seed itself. Water under 50° means that when swelling takes place the cells aren’t as elastic and they tear, which can cause disoriented mesocotyl, no sprouting, etc. It might not kill the plant completely but effects could show up in ear count.”

Corn requires approximately 120 accumulated growing degree days (GDDs) to emerge, under ideal conditions. To calculate GDDs, you can use this equation: GDD = (Daily Maximum Air Temperature + Daily Minimum Temperature)/2 – 50.

He says the first 48 hours after planting corn are most critical. Seed that is subject to cold during that period of time is most vulnerable to chilling. When that occurs, the metabolic reactions necessary for emergence don’t take place in a timely manner.

“Cold seed corn is unable to swell in the ground with the same elasticity as it’s able to achieve with soil temperatures at 50° F or warmer,” Ferrie explains.

When corn emergence isn’t timely, yield potential is docked and you won’t get it back.

“Chilling can eliminate between 10% and 20% of your yield potential,” says Ferrie “You’ll never see that loss driving down the road, but you will if you stretch a tape measure for ear counts.”

4. Plant Soybeans Ahead Of Corn
If your weather conditions and soil temperatures turn unfavorable for corn, consider whether you can plant soybeans.
If the ground is fit, Ferrie would give farmers a green light to plant their full-season soybeans. Ferrie says Group 4s, mid-Group 3 and late-Group 3 soybeans need about 950 growing degree days (GDDs) pre-solstice. Early to mid-Group 3 soybeans need about 810 GDDs.

“We try to get those fuller season beans planted here by April 18,” he says. “With those earlier Group 3s and later Group 2s, maybe shoot for the planting timeframe of April 25 to May 4.”

For more insights on picking the right maturity for your soybean planting window, Ferrie recommends checking out the information from Crop-Tech Consulting Agronomist Matt Duesterhaus. You can find his recommendations here .

Your next read: 300-Bu. Corn Has a Big Appetite for N, P and K

Ag Meterologists Worry More Drought Lies Ahead For Spring

Fri, 21 Feb 2025 16:49:44 GMT

As Eric Snodgrass looks six weeks out to the end of March, he doesn’t like the weather pattern he sees shaping up for spring planting season – more dry conditions.

Varying levels of mild to moderate drought have dogged much of the upper Midwest, West and Southwest since last fall, and the outlook is for more of the same, according to Snodgrass, a leading U.S. meteorologist.

Check out the soil moisture deficit currently in the upper Midwest and West. At the opposite extreme, a broad band of soil moisture shows up in blue across much of the Ohio Valley region.

(Eric Snodgrass)

“I’m concerned about the way the central United States and the western Corn Belt, in particular, are going to be dealing with the risk of drought building into spring,” Snodgrass told farmers attending the Top Producer Summit in Kansas City earlier this week.

History shows that drought tends to beget drought. In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, Snodgrass says the spring to follow was also dry.

The weekly U.S. Drought Monitor echoes his observations. The Monitor released Thursday (Feb. 20) shows drought is impacting 45% of corn production acres, 36% of soybean production acres, 40% of spring wheat and 20% of winter wheat acres, respectively.In addition – of particular concern to beef and dairy producers – 49% of the U.S. alfalfa hay production acres are also experiencing drought.

Arctic Air Is Contributing To Drought Conditions
Snodgrass spells out what usually happens in late winter to create the moisture farmers need at planting time in the Corn Belt.

As the jet stream moves across the Pacific Ocean, it typically splits and sweeps into the West Coast from two positions – one from the northern North Pacific Ocean and the other from the southern North Pacific Ocean, close to Hawaii. The two portions of the jet stream usually then scream across U.S. western mountain ranges, picking up moisture they then deposit in portions of the Corn Belt before moving on to the East Coast and exiting the U.S. in Maine.

This year, the portion of the jet stream that normally comes from Hawaii has veered from its usual course and possibly even stalled. One indicator of that happening, Snodgrass says, is a drop off in ocean temperatures in the Baja of California and the Gulf of Alaska. The result is dry, arctic air has been moving into portions of the U.S.

In years when the Gulf of Alaska is in a warming trend, U.S. crop yields tend to be higher. The opposite is true when the Gulf cools.

(Eric Snodgrass)

For some parts of the U.S. the cold, arctic air has brought snow along with it. But the snow holds little moisture that would help alleviate the frozen dry soils. “We have some deep snow in areas right now, but it’s only got maybe two-tenths of an inch of liquid in it,” Snodgrass explains.

That’s bad news for farmers who need a full profile of soil moisture going into spring and don’t have one.

“If I’m in Iowa, Minnesota, northern Illinois, the Dakotas, even parts of Nebraska and Missouri, I’m going, holy smokes, that arctic air has prevented any sort of meaningful precipitation coming back at this point of the year,” he says.
Similar concerns were voiced by Drew Lerner, founder and president of World Weather, Inc., during the Top Producer Summit.

“If we continue bringing these cold shots of air through North America, we will have a below-normal precipitation bias [for the western Corn Belt] as we go forward through spring planting season,” Lerner explained during the taping of the U.S. Farm Report.

This map shows what the precipitation could look like in March. But remember, Mother Nature is unpredictable. It’s certainly feasible she could change course and bring moisture to the states west and southwest of the Mississippi River.

(Eric Snodgrass)

That’s not the meteorologists’ expectation for the eastern Corn Belt and portions of the Southeast. Lerner and Snodgrass agree those areas are likely to have plenty of moisture going into spring planting.

More Weather Trouble Brewing For Summer
If the current cold conditions continue through March, which Lerner and Snodgrass anticipate will be the case, what will likely occur is a knee-jerk reaction in the atmosphere: a warming trend will start in late March or early April and build through late spring and into early summer.

“If we warm up quickly in the spring, which is a high possibility, we could end up falling behind the eight ball a little bit more on soil moisture,” Lerner says.

While some meteorologists point to this year’s La Niña as a cause of the continued move to dryer conditions, Snodgrass and Lerner say that’s not the case.

“La Niña will be gone by the time we get into mid-March,” Lerner predicts. “This La Niña hasn’t lasted long enough to really have a big footprint in the atmosphere. As we get into April, it’ll be pretty much a non-event.”

Keep An Eye On The Pacific Decadal Oscillation
Lerner and Snodgrass believe a negative phase of what scientists call the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) could be a primary contributor to ongoing drought and higher temperatures by April. The PDO is a long-term climate pattern that affects the temperature of the Pacific Ocean and can influence weather patterns across the globe.

While the PDO has not had what Lerner calls a “tremendous amount of impact” in past years in the U.S., it’s looking more influential for the 2025 growing season.

“I’m seeing some additional cooling off the West Coast of North America that may end up leading us into a greater ridge building with all the dryness that’s in the soil and that negative PDO,” Lerner says. “I’m not ready to go all the way over with [that prediction], but that’s where I’m headed.”

The Surprising Solution To Drought
If Mother Nature continues on her worrying course, Snodgrass says continued low temperatures in the Gulf of Alaska would be a signal in early summer for farmers.

“If we get into June and it’s cool there, that is telling me that the atmosphere is not moving. And if it doesn’t move, well, all of a sudden we could find ourselves in a situation in late June into July with more drought and excess heat,” Snodgrass says.

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) is a seasonal forecasting system, showing this summer could be a dry one in portions of the West and upper Midwest and into Canada. However, summer is still months away, and Mother Nature could change course. However, being forewarned can help farmers plan ahead.

(Eric Snodgrass and NMME)

Another worrying sign he says to watch for is where the active spring weather pattern falls. If areas of Kansas and the Great Plains see an active tornado season, Snodgrass says that means the weather pattern is more favorable for rains to fall across the Corn Belt. But if tornado warnings blare across the Southeast, Snodgrass says that’s a signal drought could be a problem this summer.

There is a solution to the troubling weather patterns, he adds, one most farmers won’t welcome – a big, wet snow on the Northern Plains.

“The No. 1 thing I’m praying for right now is an April 4 blizzard. I want a foot of snow,” Snodgrass told farmers at Top Producer Summit, many of whom laughed.

Snodgrass laughed, too, and added, “You’ll hate me for about a week, and then love me through the rest of May.”

Your next read: ‘Stay Tuned, We’ll Be Right Back With Your Forecast’

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 22:14:43 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

Your next read: With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Freezing Temps and Lack of Snow Cover Sprouts Concerns Over Severe Damage to Winter Wheat

Wed, 29 Jan 2025 15:57:56 GMT

Sub-freezing temperatures stretched from the Northern to the Southern U.S. last week, and with a lack of snow cover in many of those areas, there are fresh concerns it caused some winter kill damage to both classes of winter wheat.

The damage is just being assessed as temperatures warm up and allow the crop to thaw out, but the full extent might not be known until later in the season.

Drought Grips the Wheat Belt

Agronomists and producers often joke that winter wheat has nine lives. And the crop might have used one of those last week when production areas plunged into the deep freeze.

“At the height of the recent cold wave, the 19th through the 21st of January, subzero temperatures were noted across the Great Plains as far south as the northern Panhandle of Texas, and we saw widespread -20-degree readings and below across the Northern Plains,” says Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist.

Farmers are currently monitoring for signs of winter kill in both the hard red winter wheat crop in the Great Plains and soft red fields in the lower Midwest.

Drought continues to grip the western half of the U.S., hitting especially hard in parts of the Wheat Belt.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

While 27% of U.S. winter wheat crop is under drought conditions, the Northern Plains wheat areas were especially dry.

“That lead to poor development of the crop last autumn,” Rippey says. “Poor establishment and some uneven emergence. “So, that crop already weakened by drought may have been finished off in some cases by the bitter cold of January.”

Many of those wheat fields also had a lack of insulating snow cover. However, the potential impact of freeze damage on yield potential might not be fully realized until well after the crop breaks dormancy.

“It will be several weeks before we know the full extent of any winter kill, and we will be monitoring further reports from USDA NASS, including the Feb. 5 state stories report, that will provide updated conditions,” Rippey says.

At the end of December anywhere from a quarter to one-third of the winter wheat was rated poor to very poor, with Nebraska and South Dakota in the epic center of the Northern Plains drought.

Impact on Prices

As damage concerns enter into the markets, Arlan Suderman of StoneX Group says the temperatures were ripe for damage to winter wheat exposed to such cold temperatures last week.

“I’ve walked to thousands of wheat fields, and they don’t always follow the textbook,” says Suderman. “What the textbook tells us is you can start getting damage when the temperatures drop five degrees below zero and colder. And we saw those types of temperatures without sufficient snow cover all the way from the Texas Panhandle to the eastern Midwest. If you look at the Plains’ hard red wheat crop, where the cold was most intense, two-thirds of the crop had conditions ripe for winter killed damage.”

Suderman points out it’s difficult to sustain a rally in the wheat market until you have proof significant damage occurred.

“We won’t have that until the crop breaks dormancy in another four to six weeks, so that’s why the market kind of hesitated and paused again after a quick rally on it,” Suderman says. “But with the world supplies tightening up, I do think it does provide some support underneath this market, particularly with problems with the Black Sea crop, as well.”

With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Mon, 13 Jan 2025 21:04:43 GMT

After ice and blizzard conditions blasted the Midwest, South and East to start January, another round of frigid temperatures is set to blanket much of the U.S., and this time, temperatures could fall even lower than the previous round of cold.

Much of the U.S. is still seeing snow cover, with temperatures too cold to melt the recent snow. But now, we’re bracing for even colder temperatures as what’s called the “Siberian Express” is set to arrive this weekend. What exactly is the Siberian Express? Well, it gets its name from the cold air’s geographic origins. It’s when arctic air spills into the U.S., and it can have multiple sources, including Arctic Canada, Alaska, and in this case, Russia’s Siberia region, which is home to the coldest place on earth.

snow cover

(Weather Undground)

Meteorologists say the active start to January is a sign of what’s ahead.

“We’ve tried to bring some moisture back into places that have not seen it,” says Eric Sodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist with Conduit. “I’ve had this concern for a while about the lack of good flow in the atmosphere and what that’s meant toward building drought in some places through fall and now early winter. And I hate to say it, but nasty winters tend to give us a much better outlook for the next year. So, hey, let’s keep these things going for the rest of January and February, too.”

It’s not just the cold that’s turning heads, but it’s also the amount of snow that’s fallen since the start of the year, and it’s setting records. Take Kansas City, Mo., for example. That area has seen 13.” of snow in January, which makes it the second snowiest start to January in Kansas City history. Some parts of Arkansas saw as much as 15" of snow last week. That compares to areas that typically see snow, such as Chicago, recording little to no snowfall so far this year.

pic.twitter.com/rC9Dbh0qHE
— NWS Climate Prediction Center (@NWSCPC) January 13, 2025

The Winter of Extremes and Episodic Cold Outbreaks

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey thinks the winter of 2025 will be remembered for the extremes.

“With this pattern set up, it’s going to be too dry in the Southwest, stormy in the Northwest, and episodic cold outbreaks across the country,” he says. “Everybody remembers those because especially embedded in an otherwise relatively mild winter, you really remember those hard hitters.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

And that’s exactly what we are in for later this week. According to Rippey, the upcoming Arctic blast is one of those “episodic cold outbreaks” we typically see during La Niña, and what he describes as a re-amplification of the pattern we’ve been seeing for much of the month.

“Sunday night’s GFS model is showing this for extreme minimum temperatures over the next seven days,” says Rippey. “Bitter cold should stay out of the Deep South, but it may get a bit colder than this early next week before it gets better.”

Cold

(GFS Model )

Recent Moisture Helps Drought in Places
What about the moisture? The recent moisture is helping drought conditions in parts of the upper Midwest and some areas of the plains.

“But as you move to the south, that’s where I have concerns, that southwestern quadrant of the country, southern California, to the High Plains, like West Texas, western Kansas, western Oklahoma,” Rippey says. ”All I can say is it’s very fortunate those areas in the central and southern plains had a wet November because it doesn’t look good for the foreseeable future.”

But what about areas farther north, like Montana and the Dakotas? Lerner doesn’t expect widespread relief this winter.

“We’re getting some waves of snow to come across Montana and the Dakotas, but it’s a dry, powdery snow, and it’s really not providing high volumes of moisture,” says Drew Lerner, founder and senior agricultural meteorologist at World Weather, Inc. “This pattern will continue for the next several weeks, so we’ll put out a little bit more snow up that way. But as far as being able to get a big soaking rain type, you’re going to have to wait until spring.”

Meteorologists say one thing we are seeing that’s consistent with La Niña, is the sharp dividing line between wetter conditions and drought. And NOAA’s seasonal outlook shows that divide with below normal precipitation forecast for much of the southwest and Deep South over the next 90 days. Above normal in areas of the northwest and east.

Precip. Outlook

(NOAA)

Temp Outlook

(NOAA )

Drought Watch
Lerner thinks parts of the upper Midwest and northern Plains could see more active weather with rain into spring.

“So, I’m not too terribly concerned about the fact that we’re still seeing persistent dryness in those areas,” Lerner says. “Not all of that region will get relief when we get to the spring, but I would say probably two-thirds of that region will.”

But even with more moisture across other parts of the U.S., Snodgrass says he’s concerned about drought in other areas due to the weak La Niña.

“We tend to be wet through the Mississippi valley and east going into spring. There tends to be lots of storms, but we tend to see the drought that’s in West Texas, New Mexico, Arizona, the Sunbelt expand up toward Colorado,” Snodgrass says. “Most models want to bring dry conditions out of the southern Canadian prairie into Montana, and that’s kind of funneling toward the western Corn Belt. And I’ve based this off historical analogs looking at a lot of different years that looks something like this one. We just tended to be a bit hotter and drier.”

He says looking back, six out of 10 years that we’ve seen a similar pattern, we’ve ended up with heat and dryness in key months of July and August.

“To be honest with you, this is the first time in fall and winter that I’ve been kind of saying, ‘Hey, I think our risk is elevated for drought,’” Snodgrass says.

He says something extremely important to watch is what happens in the Gulf of Alaska.

“If between March and June, if that’s where it gets cold, the risk of drought in the Midwest goes way up. Watch that March time frame,” Snodgrass says. “I think that’s where our risk factor is going to be going forward. So I’m watching winter, but I’m more concerned about spring/summer.”

Your Next Read:
Winter Storm Wallops the U.S. With Heaviest Snowfall in a Decade, Southern States Brace for Round 2

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Winter Storm Wallops the U.S. With Heaviest Snowfall in a Decade, Southern States Brace for Round 2

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 14:53:49 GMT

A powerful winter storm swept through the central United States earlier this week and unleashed snow, ice and high winds. It also left behind dangerously cold temperatures across a wide swath of the U.S.

The National Weather Service (NWS) warned some areas experienced the “heaviest snowfall in at least a decade,” and those forecasts held true, with more than a foot of snow falling north of Interstate 70.

“For locations in this region that receive the highest snow totals, it may be the heaviest snowfall in at least a decade,” the weather service stated.

The storm extended its reach into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, bringing frigid conditions as far south as Florida. “Temperatures could be 12 to 25 degrees below normal,” forecasters cautioned, with wind chills creating dangerously cold conditions.

What’s Driving the Winter Storms to Start 2025?

Southern U.S. braced for round two, with ice and snow forecast to fall in Texas and areas of the Southern U.S. The icy storm could impact 20 states.

“Starting back several weeks ago, we drifted into a weather pattern that even though we don’t have La Nina, it is very consistent with what you would expect during La Nina,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.

Rippey says one of the trademarks of La Nina are the episodic cold outbreaks.

“It just so happens that this time we’ve got a couple of Pacific storm systems riding right along that boundary between the colder air to the north, the warmer air to the south. And that lead system earlier in the week really took advantage of that temperature gradient, cold north, warm south, which is why we saw just about every imaginable weather phenomenon under the sun over a period of a couple of days,” says Rippey.

No, we don't need to talk about this yet -- too far in the future for one model [ECMWF 00z] scenario -- 14 days.

The episode of cold -- happening now -- was predicted to be much more harsh, and it washed out at the expense of multiple snow storms everywhere. pic.twitter.com/L4QmL0N20J
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 8, 2025

Rippey says the remainder of January will bring more winter weather and the bursts of cold.

“At least for the time being, we are in a southern storm track and that is going to keep things pretty active for the foreseeable future,” says Rippey.

Enduring the Cold and Snow, Plus a Helping Hand

The ice and snow paralyzed traffic in places, leaving hundreds of vehicles stranded along the roads in Kansas and Missouri.

If we know one thing about rural areas, it’s the willingness to help a neighbor in need, and that was on full display this week. One tractor helped push cars that were stranded in the snow.

@kaaelliiii #blizzard #snowday #snowstorm #midwest #country @John Deere #tractor #tiktok #viral #mercedes ♬ APT. - ROSÉ & Bruno Mars

And there may be an art to pushing snow, but central Missouri farmer Gavin Spoor compared it to a harvesting crew.

@thepopcornfarmer
♬ original sound - GavinSpoor

Watching the Weather

What’s the forecast for the rest of the week? Check out the latest AgDay weather.

Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 19:57:17 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

A Potential Setback For Fieldwork Is On The Way

Thu, 21 Mar 2024 13:46:36 GMT

Though we’ve passed the official first day of spring, winter weather still poses a threat to growers in the North itching to start planting. USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says changes are on the way over the next several days for the Northern Plains and Midwest regions that could delay planting progress.

“We are expecting a snowstorm to arrive across the Northern Plains and upper Midwest Thursday, and a second storm arriving over the weekend into early next week,” Rippey says.

He adds areas that have been experiencing snow drought this winter, such as Minnesota and northern Iowa, could potentially see more snowfall in the next few weeks than they have all winter. This map from NOAA shows snowfall accumulation - or lack thereof - across the country between late September and mid-March.

But while winter weather attempts to slowdown planting in the North, Rippey says growers in the South have gotten a significant head start. As of March 17, Texas reported 34% of corn and 27% of sorghum acreage has already been planted, while Arizona has completed 2% of cotton planting.

“The bottom line is, for many parts of the country, spring has come early and we expect planting to be normal or ahead of normal given soil conditions,” he says. “But as we focus on some of those northern areas, we do expect deteriorating conditions for pre-planting fieldwork due to these late-season snowstorms.”

Rippey adds rain is in the outlook for the South, but he doesn’t anticipate it delaying planting progress.

Severe Snowstorm Forecasted to Dump Multiple Feet of Snow

Fri, 05 Jan 2024 21:08:28 GMT

As the calendar flipped to the new year, Mother Nature unleashed the potential for back-to-back blasts of winter weather. From the possibility of blizzard conditions early next week, to flooding in the southeast, the impact on agriculture could be two-fold: a possible cure for drought conditions in parts of the Plains and South, but stressful for livestock.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says the forecast is pointing to a very active weather winter pattern in January, which is a hallmark of El Niño.

“There’s no question about it. As I always say, you can’t blame an individual or a single storm and El Niño, but you start looking at the overall patterns, and there’s absolutely no question that when you start seeing a pattern setting up like this, a storm pipeline from the Pacific coming across the Southwest and into the Midwest or east, that is El Niño,” Rippey says.

Eric Snodgrass is a well-known ag meteorologist who’s also watching the change in potential winter weather this month. He says El Niño reached its peak at the end of December.

“It has plateaued. And what that typically means is we tend to have what we call a back-half weighted winter, which means December is usually pretty mild, not a whole lot to talk about, but once we get going into this new year, that jet stream is really going to start to become quite a bit more active,” Snodgrass says.

Active Jet Stream Set to Bring Multiple Winter Storms

The active jet stream is exactly what the U.S. is now seeing, with multiple storms lined up for the start of the year. Rippey says it’s an active storm track that starts in the South, eventually ending up along the East Coast.

“The storm that’s coming out late this week, it’s going to be a decent storm system - a decent winter storm. But it’s going to pale in comparison to the blockbuster storm that we see coming for early next week,” he says.

High Plains with current storm 53% covered in shallow layer of snow. Feet of snow on the way? pic.twitter.com/fAZzWeHurr
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024

Snowfall reports from the National Weather Service (NWS) Albuquerque, New Mexico station shows impressive snowfall already falling in the Rocky Mountains. As of midday Friday, January 5, NWS reports 10 to 18 inch snowfall totals in the southern Rockies before it made its way across Kansas.

Eye-Popping Snowfall Totals Possible

However, Rippey says this first snow system isn’t the headline. Early to mid-week next week, a different significant storm will emerge from the Southwest and Four Corners region, which could bring monstrous snowfall totals.

“That storm will be going across the Central and Southern Plains Monday and reach the lower Great Lakes region by Wednesday,” Rippey says. “That system really has the potential to create a wide degree of disarray across the country.”

(Farm Journal)

The storm early next week will pack a punch with high winds, but it will also bring much needed drought relief. NOAA is warning of weather impacts that will span from Coast to Coast. They report heavy snow is likely in the higher elevation with blizzard conditions possible. The high winds are expected to hit much of the Central and Eastern U.S., with some winds exceeding 50 MPH.

“Some of them can be big snow makers through parts of the Midwest and some of them are putting down some heavy rains across the South,” Snodgrass says. “And the big picture here is that our U.S. Drought Monitor, which still shows about 50% to 55% of the land area in some form of drought, about one-third of it in the drought categories, that could really change a lot in the coming weeks.”

Let it snow, let it snow, let it snow. Winter arrives finally. 10 days from now mountains, West, Plains, North BURIED! pic.twitter.com/EbPLLFlB74
— Allen Motew (@QTweather) January 5, 2024

The winter storm is forecasted to bring heavy snow, which could provide relief for winter wheat country.

“We’ve already chipped away at the drought across the Great Plains,” Rippey says. “If you look at USDA’s winter wheat condition, we saw improvement from the end of November to the end of December. Kansas winter wheat jumped from 32% good to excellent at the end of November to 43% in December. Oklahoma saw a big jump from 53% to 67% good to excellent. So more moisture, more snow - that’ll be good news for winter wheat.

(Farm Journal)

While the storm system will bring much needed relief, it could also pose problems for livestock producers.

“As the storm crosses the southern Great Plains and moves into the Midwest, we’re going to have a big wind-driven snow event. So certainly, some livestock stress. And then for the Southeast, those folks where it’s not a drought situation, they could be dealing with flooding and flash flooding, as well as our first significant severe weather outbreak of the season early next week,” Rippey says.

Euro model... 😳❄️🌨️ pic.twitter.com/PqZKmP7G0W
— Darin D. Fessler ✝️ (@DDFalpha) January 5, 2024

Much Need Moisture in Areas

As the south braces for impacts of the forecasted storms, Snodgrass says that moisture is desperately needed.

“The South has been, in my opinion, on the wildest ride with moisture in the last 24 months compared to any other place on the planet at this point,” he says.

And as this El Niño pattern takes hold, Snodgrass thinks cotton country could final see some relief this winter.

“I think the best chance for recovery and moisture is going to be across the South, pockets of the Mid-South, the Southeast and in the East Coast,” Snodgrass says. “That track from Texas to South Carolina to Maine, I like it. That area is going to be getting some good moisture.”

It’s not just snow that producers will need to brace for, but temperatures are forecast to plunge with a possible Artic blast. Weather models are pointing to extremely cold and extreme Arctic air also moving in.

Still watching historic climate emergency risk from Arctic blast 📉❄️🌡️

Overnight weather model [ECMWF HRES 00Z] still shows historic Arctic blast into the Pacific Northwest and Western U.S. in 6-7 days.

Extremely cold w/potential for snowfall along California coast including… pic.twitter.com/PsNLPAccdj
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 5, 2024

The Duration of El Niño

Snodgrass says the question is how long until El Niño fades, and the impact it could have on the spring.

“If El Niño peaks right now and begins to fade throughout the rest of winter and into spring, I’ve looked at every event since 1960, and most times when that happens, we tend to do okay in the Midwest the following year in terms of precipitation. That’s not a guarantee, but you look at historically, we tend to go out of ridge riding storms, which are often the types of storms that save crops,” he says.

That scenario, however, spells trouble for key growing areas of the South this spring and summer.

“The only way you can get a ridge riding storm system, though, is to put heat and drought across the South. That’s the Cotton Belt that could be impacted negatively by that,” Snodgrass says. “That’s all speculative. But that’s all you got this time of years to base it off of those bigger picture things.”

Areas of the Country Could Still Be Dry This Spring

With the active storms to start the year, there are still pockets of the country that need much more moisture to replenish dry soils before spring.

“I’m worried about the Northern Plains,” Snodgrass says. “I’m worried about the Canadian Prairie on drought. I’m worried about the lack of snowfall we’ve had so far in parts of the upper Midwest. We need to be piling a whole lot more snow there.”

The debate of just how long El Niño will last is heating up. There’s even talk of La Nina making a return this year. There’s no certainty either way, but for now, Snodgrass says a strong shot of winter weather isn’t a bad thing.

“I’ll just tell you this, the nastiest winters we’ve ever had, have almost always given us fantastic springs and summers,” he says. “So, I hate to say it, but I’m wishing for just a terrible second half of winter so that I can talk to you next spring summer and say, ‘Hey wasn’t that terrible? But now look what we got out of it.’”

Related News:

What impact did El Nino have on the weather in 2023?

Kansas Landed in the Bull's-Eye of a Late-November Snow, And It's Good News for Winter Wheat

Tue, 28 Nov 2023 21:07:23 GMT

A big November snowfall is providing hope for a winter wheat crop that’s off to a rough start again in the Great Plains. A dry fall helped harvest progress, but the stubborn drought situation also created poor conditions to help germinate the winter wheat crop this year. That was until a snow system brought much-needed moisture in the Great Plains, with the bull’s-eye being central Kansas.

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey describes the system as a fairly wet snow, with many locations seeing a 10:1 snow-water ratio. He says that compares to typical snow-water ratios in that part of the country. He says when it’s away from the oceans, the snow-water ratios are closer to 20:1.

The snow coverage peaked on November 27, with a NOAA map showing the track across the Midwest.

Snow totals varied, with the heaviest amounts falling east of Hutchinson, Kan. According to official snowfall totals, Hutchinson received 12 inches of snow, but a pocket to the east of the city received 14.1 inches of snow.

Rippey says snow in late November across the nation’s heartland isn’t rare, especially when it’s a narrow band. However, he says areas where the earlier heavy snow fell included the southern edge of the snow band, which went across northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas.

“Wichita’s snowiest November on record occurred way back in 1888, with 9.0 inches. Other big November snows in Wichita occurred in 1906 (8.7 inches), 1951 (8.1 inches), 1952 (6.8 inches), 1972 (7.1 inches), 1975 (5.5 inches), 1984 (6.8 inches), 1987 (6.2 inches) and 2006 (5.5 inches). The storm in 1952 occurred on the exact same date (6.8 inches fell on November 25, 1952),” says Rippey.

Winter wheat conditions in Kansas rated 16% very poor, 16% poor, 36% fair, 28% good, and 4% excellent. Winter wheat emerged was 93%, ahead of 86% last year, and near 90% for the five-year average. pic.twitter.com/kP2655jdae
— KansasWheat (@KansasWheat) November 28, 2023

The snow was a welcome sight for growers who planted winter wheat. According to USDA, 93% of the winter wheat has emerged in Kansas, compared to 86% at this same time in 2022. The five-year average is 90%.

“Of course, the wet snow is great news for winter wheat, which in Kansas in particular has been struggling, with nearly one-third of the crop rated in very poor to poor condition,” Rippey adds. “However, as you can see from the snow map, the beneficial moisture largely bypassed the northern and southern Plains, as well as southeastern Colorado, northwestern Kansas and eastern Nebraska.”

Potential Impact on Drought

What does this mean for potential changes in the U.S. Drought Monitor? Rippey helps author the Drought Monitor. He says especially if a wetter-than-normal pattern continues, areas of the Great Plains still experiencing drought should see gradual improvement. This early snow is a good start.

While the pattern change is a good thing, it’s still a debate whether it can be attributed to El Niño.

“Sometimes, it’s hard to tell where the effects of El Niño start and end,” explains Rippey. “Over the past couple of weeks, we’ve certainly seen a stronger subtropical jet stream, which is likely attributable to El Niño. This new pattern has delivered drought relief in other areas, including the South, East and lower Midwest.”

Related News:

El Nino’s Effect on Crop Prices

Harvest Update: Less than 5% of Corn Acres to Go

Harvest Update: Growers Dodge Weather to Wrap Up Final Acres

Tue, 31 Oct 2023 13:21:46 GMT

Precipitation delays were scattered throughout the week, but farmers were still able to make significant progress in the fields – especially in corn acres.

According to USDA’s crop progress report , 71% of corn and 85% of soybeans have been harvested so far. This is slightly behind where progress was this time last year, though considerably ahead of the five-year average.

While growers have been accustomed to rain showers during this year’s harvest, a new variable was thrown into the mix over the weekend: snow.

North Dakota farmers woke up to find significant snowfall on Friday, while this Minnesota grower came in from the fields earlier than anticipated on Saturday.

I think #harvest23 might be on hold here for a bit in #ND lots of #corn #sunflowers and a few #soybeans still out there yet. @OfficialRFDTV pic.twitter.com/oJLNWW8AiH
— Travis P. Messer (@travismesser81) October 27, 2023

How do you wait on the first snow of the year? #newx #harvest23 pic.twitter.com/sK5pfzIXCI
— Rob O’Neill 🌽 (@roboneill24) October 28, 2023

In states a bit further south, rain showers have been having a similar effect.

Last field of #harvest23. Hoping rain will hold off so we can get it wrapped up. pic.twitter.com/YscP0ZYrtk
— Brent Johnson (@BrentJFF) October 27, 2023

Jackson Co. #Kansas 1.0 of recent #rain pausing the last bit of #corn #harvest23
— Matthew Wiegand (@mjwiegand) October 26, 2023

Despite delays across the country, many states are nearing the end of harvest. Louisiana is reporting 100% of soybean acres completed and Mississippi is at 97%. For corn acres, North Carolina has completed 97% of harvest followed by Texas at 93%.

Colorado had the most progress in corn acres with a 23% increase (from 45% to 68%), and the largest increase in soybean acres was 16% in Ohio (from 64% to 80%).

Looking toward the coming week for harvest conditions, more rain and snow chances are on the way.

Widespread precipitation followed by much colder temperatures will impact harvest efforts over the next 10 days. Maps below shows total precipitation (L) with heavy rain across the Midwest through the S. Plains and the risk for snowfall (R) across the N. Plains #agwx #harvest23 pic.twitter.com/b2mA14JwdJ
— Empire Weather (@empirewx) October 23, 2023

Share how progress is looking in your state on the AgWeb Facebook page or click here to add your update to the website.

Harvest Update: Corn and Soybean Progress on Track With 2022

Harvest Update: Corn and Soybean Progress Ahead of Average

Harvest Update: Overall Soybean Progress Nears Halfway Point

Prevent Plant Concerns Heat Up As the Upper Midwest Could See the Worst Winter Storm of the Year

Mon, 03 Apr 2023 18:23:34 GMT

Two to three feet of snow is forecast to fall over parts of South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota this week. The area is already seeing historic snowpack, and with another storm on the way, some market watchers are beginning to question if 92 million acres of corn can actually get planted this year.

It’s been a long winter for those in the upper Midwest, and this week’s forecast could bring the biggest winter storm yet. The storm is also bringing 40 to 50 mph winds, which will make it tough for ranchers and cattle producers in the middle of calving season. Blizzard warnings have been issued for six states, including Wyoming, northeast Nebraska, South Dakota, North Dakota and Minnesota.

A significant April snowstorm is set to begin across the Intermountain West, central Rockies, and parts of the central High Plains today before spreading into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest on Tuesday. See the latest Key Messages for more information. pic.twitter.com/C6n9iS5ij5
— NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) April 3, 2023

⚠️ STORM UPDATE FOR MONDAY NIGHT - WEDNESDAY

- Travel impacts are expected, worsening further north and west where a blizzard is possible.
- The heaviest snow has shifted northwest, but 40-50+ mph gusts are expected!

Continue to monitor the forecast for updates! pic.twitter.com/mdvjZLekni
— NWS Sioux Falls (@NWSSiouxFalls) April 2, 2023

The late winter storm comes on the heels of USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report on Friday. USDA’s March plantings report showed farmers plan to plant more corn than soybeans this year.

Corn: 91.9 million, up 4% from 2022
Soybeans: 87.51 million, up slightly from 2022
All Wheat: 49.9 million, up 9% from 2022
Cotton: 11.3 million, down 18% from 2022

USDA also projects 318.1 million acres of principle crops to be planted this year. That’s 6 million more acres than in 2022 and nearly 1 million more acres than farmers planted in 2021.

A powerful snowstorm will evolve into a dangerous blizzard and drop more than 2 feet of snow across parts of the north-central US this week: https://t.co/T4WCyYiDMz pic.twitter.com/ESQlcbmsq0
— Breaking Weather by AccuWeather (@breakingweather) April 3, 2023

Peter Meyer of S&P Global Commodity Insights says the thing to watch is where farmers plan to plant more corn, especially in the northern tier of states that are facing historic snowfall and winter moisture, with another winter storm on the way.

“It’s where the corn acres sit, 1.3 million acres in North Dakota, South Dakota and Minnesota, which from all indications farmers will not be able to get into the field to plant until mid-April when the temperature breaks,” Meyer says. “They’re looking at record snowpack with more cold temperatures coming. But USDA’s report does makes sense, because economically speaking, farmers should be planting corn.”

USDA shows North Dakota’s corn acres could be up a whopping 27% from last year.

It’s still early in the year, but with the latest winter storm forecast, along with flood forecasts already pointing to an elevated risk of flooding this year in parts of the Midwest, conversations about possible prevent plant are also surfacing.

Tregg Cronin, a farmer and market analyst in South Dakota, says it’s too early to talk about prevent plant, but he points out conditions are ripe for planting delays across North Dakota, South Dakota, Minnesota and Wisconsin.

“If we’re experiencing the same weather conditions three weeks from now, I don’t think it’s going to be a stretch, and we will have some prevent plant this year. That’s almost a certainty in some regions,” Cronin said two weeks ago on U.S. Farm Report. “The other thing to remember is a lot of our area ended the year fairly empty on soil moisture. A lot of what we’ve seen this winter has gone in the ground, so I think we’re going to see a nice recharge of soil profiles.”

MORE Snow in the Northern US? + Crude Rally https://t.co/Tz9pdaIjgf via @YouTube #corn #soybeans #wheat #crudeoil #USDA pic.twitter.com/hB17Pjdd4w
— Joe Vaclavik (@StandardGrain) April 3, 2023

As a farmer in an area of South Dakota that was plagued with drought conditions in 2022, Cronin says he’s more concerned about recharging the moisture in his soils than he is about getting into the field at this point in the season. However, there’s a caveat.

“If these forecasts don’t change, and we’re into the middle of April and still looking at below-normal temperatures and snow to melt, then prevent plant discussions are really going to ramp up, which will be interesting with acres already so tight for everything from specialties to corn to soybeans to wheat,” Cronin says. “Everybody needs acres this year. If it does play out over the next few weeks, you’re going to start to see markets get a little bit jumpy, I think.”

Just a wee bit of snow in the field 😂❄️ pic.twitter.com/p3uyyEJ01l
— 👣 Barefoot’n Farmer 👣 🇺🇸🚤🇺🇸 (@LouieDN) April 1, 2023

Dan Bosse of Bolt Marketing also resides in South Dakota, an area that was concerned about planting issues even before this week’s storm.

“With the snowpack up here, and a possibly colder start to the spring, that really puts into question spring wheat acres, and the market’s job might be to make sure those acres get planted. Usually that means higher prices,” Bosse says. “But to Tregg’s point, we are a little early to talk about planting delays. We don’t usually see a rally until the May timeframe when the progress reports come out and they show we’re behind.”

There have been reports of farmers who increased their prevent plant coverage, which could be another sign farmers in the northern Corn Belt are worried about planting issues this spring.

NOAA’s spring flood outlook says snow water equivalent values (SWE) across the upper Mississippi River are the biggest factor leading to their projection of possible flooding this year due to spring melt.

As of March 20, 2023, the SWE amounts across northern and central Minnesota were between 5 and 7 inches. In Wisconsin, that amount is between 6 to 8 inches.

“These values are in the top 10% to 20% of the historical record and are the primary driver of the above-normal chance of flooding along the Mississippi River,” NOAA said in its outlook. “SWE values significantly drop along a line from roughly Austin, Minn. to Wausau, Wis.”

"It's Not Hollywood At All": How Veeder Ranch Battled Historic Blizzards, Found Hope in the Middle of the Storm

Wed, 02 Nov 2022 05:19:30 GMT

Once you reach the far western portion of North Dakota, the rugged ways of ranching on the cusp of the Badlands can be challenging, no matter the time of year.

“No calf out there is older than 2 weeks old,” says Chad Scofield, a rancher in Watford City, N. D. “Most of them have been born in the last six to seven days.”

This year, calving in the middle of a blizzard came with a battle that was unlike anything many North Dakota ranchers had ever seen.

“We were told it was coming,” says Gene Veeder, who owns Veeder Ranch and ranches along with his son-in-law Chad. “I guess the magnitude of it just kind of was a slap in the face.”

Veeder Ranch is a family operation that’s relied on this land for more than a century.

“Having that long, hard blizzard for a couple of days, and then another one, I don’t remember that ever happening like that in April,” says Veeder.

The family portion of the ranch is still intact, as Chad is married to Gene’s daughter, Jessie. They all live on the family ranch, raising the next generation.

“We didn’t know when I was growing up here in the 90s whether it was going to be a possibility for me to raise a family out here, honestly,” says Jessie Veeder Scofield. “It was a totally different economic time.”

Jessie’s husband, Chad, has worked on the ranch for several years, but has only been full time for a few years. Now that their family is fully immersed in the ranch life, Jessie is grateful.

“Every day we come to the work we’re doing in the family, that we have here, from a place of gratitude,” she adds.

McKenzie County, N. D., is unique with the median age in the community hovering around 35.

“It is because of the economy, because there are jobs here and the oil activity, especially, brought that to McKenzie County. It brought a lot of fourth and fifth generations back to the family ranches, and that’s been incredible,” she says.

Battling the Blizzard

Carrying on those traditions here, is what Jessie strives to do, even when Mother Nature pushes livelihoods to the limits.

An area stricken with dire drought conditions, the blizzard warnings stirred up emotions the week before Easter.

View this post on Instagram A post shared by Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch (@jessieveeder)

“It’s like gratefulness and fear all sort of balled into one,” says Jessie. “I think everyone in McKenzie County and in western North Dakota was feeling that, because we haven’t seen snow like this for years.”

Both hope and fear entered the picture as the forecasts became closer and closer to reality. Then, just before Easter Sunday, the Veeders saw a blizzard of a lifetime.

“I think it lasted three full days, and it was bad. Like right here where we’re standing, we would have been standing in about 3 feet of snow,” says Chad.

Record-Breaking Snow

As snow piled up, even trying to wade through the snow to get to their tractors was a feat. Typically, the Veeders would enter their pastures on horseback, but the conditions were too extreme this time.

“Just walking from the house to the barn here on the first storm, where we’re standing right now, I had snow to my waist. I was almost panicky because I had to get to this building to get to the tractor to get out,” says Veeder.

“The snow was so deep coming across this road, that I was pushing it with the front of the tractor, not even the bucket, just the actual front of the tractor was pushing it,” Chad adds.

With blinding conditions and snow that was measured in feet, not inches, the first storm was bad enough. Then, just days later, another storm hit, this time as the Veeders were at the height of calving.

“That was hard for us, because we knew that we were going to have calves out there. We did the best we could to give them shelter and get bedding down for them, but if they were born in the night during the weather, we just couldn’t save them,” says Veeder.

Already exhausted from the first storm, the Veeders did everything they could to prepare for the second.

“What we did is we put them in our lowest, most protected areas and had lots of hay and stuff for them to lay on and got them out of the wind,” says Veeder.

Losses from the Storm

Even though the Veeders did everything they could to help protect their livestock, the blinding conditions were followed by ice, as the back-to-back blizzards were intense. The Veeders only had about 20 minutes after a calf was born to save it.

“They were just wet and cold and couldn’t get dry,” says Chad. “And the cows were all confused about who was the mom for each calf, and it was just kind of pandemonium.”

“My brother was here, too, so Chad, my brother and I were in the two tractors out there, and we had multiple calves in the tractor trying to get them warmed up,” says Gene.

Gene’s brother came back from Texas just to help during the storms, and even with extra help, it was a battle to save the calves.

“We were out in the tractors, looking for calves,” explains Chad. “I think we picked up four or five of them. And then a couple of them were able to get back with their moms, and now we are left with three bottle calves still.”

With the brutal conditions, some of the newborn calves didn’t survive the storm.

“We’re still probably going to be calculating the losses,” says Jessie. “It was certainly more than we wanted to lose, but gosh, we could have lost more.”

Ranchers across North Dakota found calves that were lost in snowbanks after the snow melted from the storm, and the losses are hard for even this seasoned rancher to weather.

View this post on Instagram A post shared by Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch (@jessieveeder)

“It doesn’t have anything to do with dollars,” says Veeder. “I get a lump in my throat telling you about it. These cows that you raise, you kind of get a bond with them. And then you see them go through all that, and their (calf) just dies in a snowbank in 15 minutes.”

Sacrifices to Save Lives

Veeder Ranch lost around 10 calves, but it’s the lives they saved that the family celebrates.

“We had every family member in our entryway with a heated floor, and we were scrubbing those calves down, getting them dried off and getting them fed and trying to pick them up,” says Jessie.

Jessie’s two girls, along with her sister and her two kids, did everything they could to save each precious life on the ranch.

“One bottle calf, the girls named her Strawberry, and now she’s in the barn doing really well. So you feel kind of victorious with all of those little victories that you get in the process of being kind of desperate,” says Jessie.”

While ranchers will continue to battle the thoughts of what else they could have done to save their livestock, there are many calves that lived because of the sacrifices the Veeders and other ranchers made during the April blizzards. And signs of life are spread all across area ranches, in more ways than one.

“You have to just be in the moment, do what you can and be able to look past it into a more positive situation and know that it’s coming and believe that it’s coming,” says Jessie.

Relief in the Form of Moisture

Better days are exactly what’s ahead. An area that had faced a harsh drought for two consecutive years, saw moisture that was not just needed but crucial this year.

“We were in such incredible drought,” says Gene. “We were getting our business taken from us with a drought. We’re talking about this blizzard, but I felt worse about the drought than I do this blizzard, honestly, I do. It was a hopeless feeling.”

While the blizzard robbed them of some new life, it also brought blessings in the form of moisture.

“It means not having to sell the cattle for us,” says Jessie. “(Having moisture) to grow the grass that didn’t grow back in the fall means we’ll be able to keep our herd. It’s huge.”

View this post on Instagram A post shared by Meanwhile, Back At The Ranch (@jessieveeder)

The moisture from the blizzard was extreme, but it saved their herd. Some of the animals they were already forced to sell due to dire drought conditions. Relief is just one of many emotions running rampant as the weeks of brutal weather have made ranchers here tired, both physically and mentally.

“I worked hard enough that my body feels like 90 years old,” says Veeder with a smile. “But never once do I complain because my dad worked way harder. And my grandpa worked way harder.”

Heavy Dose of Grit and Grace

For ranchers across the Plains, weathering the extremes is simply what you do.

“Both my grandparents homesteaded in this area. I don’t know how they did it. I can’t imagine so,” says Veeder. “The Yellowstone thing, there’s not enough dollars in livestock today to live that kind of lifestyle. You have to love it. You have to love getting up every morning looking at your cattle and having my grandkids come in and appreciate it and my kids appreciate these. It’s not Hollywood at all.”

Ranching may not be glamorous like pictured in popular movies or television series, but it creates lessons that last a lifetime, and it requires a heavy dose of grit and grace.

“We had a lot to be grateful for in this situation,” says Jessie. “We have family around us, we have a lot of help, we had the right equipment, we had the moisture. For me grit is just being able to see past it, you know, see past the hard time and into the next step. And the next step is going to be better, we’re going to do this, we’re going to have a plan.”

Did Your Wheat Survive the Cold?

Wed, 21 Sep 2022 07:43:26 GMT

Frigid temperatures mean more than just bundling up. For many farmers, it could mean their wheat crop has taken a hit. While there’s been some respite between cold snaps, they still could have caused damage.

“As far as hard red winter wheat, [damage] is a concern in the Plains,” said Kyle Tapley, senior agricultural meteorologist with Radiant Solutions. “We think about a quarter of the crop saw some damage or at least temperatures were cold enough to cause some damage across about a quarter for the Belt, mainly in Kansas but also across parts of eastern Colorado and far northwestern Oklahoma.”

If temperatures stay below zero for days at a time, survivability drops, says Phil Needham, Farm Journal high-yield wheat expert.

“Wait until wheat comes out of dormancy to check for survival, but if you’re getting impatient you can go out now with a hammer or a pick and excavate a handful of wheat with roots and soil,” Needham explains. “Put it in the house for a week or two and see if it greens back up.”

Even if you try the inside test it might not be a true representation of your fields as various zones endure cold in different ways—make sure you scout to ground truth.

Be extra mindful of the possibility of winterkill in the following conditions, Needham says:

Little to no snow cover during the cold temperatures. Remember, taller residue often helps retain more snow cover.
Some varieties perform better than others in cold weather as a result of breeding. Check the winter hardiness or lack thereof in your varieties.
In late-planted fields, the plant won’t reach a sustainable level of growth before going dormant, which makes it more susceptible to the cold.
Fields or areas with greater levels of surface residue are more exposed to the cold. Because seeds are often more shallow or caught in residue, roots don’t reach “safe” depths.
Shallow-planted fields will have more kill because the cold can reach root crowns faster and easier.
Dry fields have less insulation.
If you didn’t apply phosphorus at planting, wheat is at greater risk of death as the nutrient helps improve root mass, plant health and hardiness.
When the seed furrow didn’t completely close (because it was too dry or wet at planting), the exposed row will be more likely to be damaged, especially without snow cover.

Winterkill likely won’t be uniform across fields, so it’s important to scout in several areas—especially where you know there could be differences in how the seeds were planted.

“To make a good assessment of a field, take stand counts,” Needham says. “If there are many areas where the stand has been wiped out, decide if you want to tear up the field or not.”

In some cases you can spot plant, such as 5 acres with no stand in a 100-acre field. However, if a considerable portion of your field drops below 100 plants per yard it might be beneficial to rip up the stand, especially if there are pockets throughout the field. Needham suggests using a drone, if you have one, to check for dead areas, which will appear brown.

Areas with snowfall will be in better luck because the snow insulates the crop. Kansas and parts of Colorado and Oklahoma, which received little to no snowfall, need to be especially diligent when scouting after greenup.

“From mid-December to mid-February, Kansas wheat is at its maximum tolerance for cold temperatures,” says Marsha Boswell, director of communications, Kansas Wheat Commission. “However, winter injury is affected by several things. Time will tell in the coming months.”

Left Out in the Cold, North Dakota Farmers Don't Know When They'll Plant

Mon, 02 May 2022 21:33:31 GMT

From devastating flooding in eastern North Dakota to snow piled up farther west, April created two weather extremes for farmers who need to plant as May gets underway.

A state that battled widespread drought last spring has seen a nearly 180-degree turn around with weather recently, as a steady stream of moisture is preventing North Dakota farmers from planting so far this year.

“The weather has been a little bit strange,” says Paul Thomas, a farmer in north-central North Dakota. “We were looking at a really early spring. In fact, we actually had our drill hooked up, ready to go seed on Monday before the snowstorm hit.”

Thomas says that was in mid-April, the week of Easter. Those plans quickly changed once the forecast showed not just a dusting of snow, but a blizzard.

“Then all of a sudden we got hit with 40 inches of snow and it sure changed the outlook for spring work,” he says.

Back-to-Back Blizzards

The snow didn’t blast the area and then melt away. Instead, the one blizzard was followed by more snow events, as other areas of the state saw rain.

April snowstorms in North Dakota aren’t rare, but back-to-back blizzards and the cold have been extreme for even here.

“Probably the one thing different about this April storm compared to some in the past is we’ve stayed so cold since we’ve had the snow,” says Thomas. “We’re going on 12 days now, and we’re still looking at major snow banks and fields that are 60% to 70% covered with snow yet.”

Rare Weather Events

The moisture was welcomed in the western part of the state where farmers and ranchers were still faced with drought. While it is causing hurdles for farmers concerned about planting late, USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says flooding has been a concern.

“For North Dakota, the April 12-14 blizzard was particularly extreme, with widespread 1- to 2½-foot snowfall totals, winds above 60 mph, and multiple days below 10°F in the storm’s wake,” says Rippey. “It was a very unusual event, even for North Dakota in April. And, of course, it was followed within a few days by the April 17-18 snowfall and then last weekend’s powerful storm. In eastern North Dakota, where the latest storm brought heavy rain, near-record flooding will occur over the next few days, north of Grand Forks toward the Canadian border. The Red River at Oslo, Minn., should crest later this week very close to the record set on April 1, 2009.”

Running Out of Time?

Water-covered fields and farm ground buried under snow now are currently common sights in North Dakota. With the calendar now showing May, Thomas says it’s a race against the calendar with weather outlooks not promising for planting in the next two to three weeks.

“We’ll plant corn all the way out until about May 25,” he says. “That’s kind of our drop dead date, but we try and get it all in by May 10 to May 15.”

Even with that window closing, Thomas says he’s not ready to switch his planting plans just yet.

“Our plans for planting corn and seeding our small grains, we’re still going to stay with the same crop mix,” says Thomas. “We’ll see how long this takes and when it warms up.”

Concerns About the Cold

His biggest concern right now isn’t just the cold, but when and how all the snow melts off. He hopes to see the “perfect melt,” which would consist of 45- to 50-degree days. He says that would allow some of the moisture to soak in, without it all running off.

Even with the concerns over the lack of planting progress, it’s a different challenge from what farmers in his area experienced last year. Last spring , North Dakota farmers battled dryness that impacted planting decisions, as USDA’s data showed 92% of the state’s topsoil was rated short to very short of moisture. With the concerns about the lack of moisture, farmers were debating parking planters until it rained.

Fast forward to this year, and Thomas says while it’s a different kind of challenge, the abundance of moisture is sprouting optimism about what harvest could bring after last year’s drought cut the area’s crop yields down to at least half of normal.

“The moisture, although it presents a lot of challenges for us, it certainly gives us that hope of a lot of opportunity for a good crop as well,” he adds.