Sorghum

Setting the Record Straight: What China Actually Agreed to Buy—And When Those Ag Purchases Will Happen

Mon, 03 Nov 2025 23:05:28 GMT

The White House announced a sweeping new U.S.–China trade agreement late last week that includes substantial commitments from Beijing to purchase U.S. agricultural products — marking what officials call a “breakthrough” in restoring and expanding trade flows between the two countries.

According to the White House fact sheet , China will buy 12 million metric tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025 and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028. The deal also restores trade in sorghum, hardwood logs, and a range of other commodities while lifting retaliatory tariffs on U.S. beef, pork, dairy, wheat, corn, cotton, and other farm products.

Yet, with mixed messages from the White House and U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, there was some confusion on whether China would purchase an additional 12 million metric tons of soybeans, of if it was 12 million total.

As AgMarket.Net’s Jim McCormick pointed out, the U.S. already sold China 5.9 million metric tons earlier this year, before the trade war broke out. Comments from Bessent made it sound like China would be 12 million metric ton total, which would have equated to only buy an additional 6.1 million metric tons yet this year.

However, the White House Fact Sheet released over the weekend cleared the air, saying, “China will purchase at least 12 million metric tons (MMT) of U.S. soybeans during the last two months of 2025 and also purchase at least 25 MMT of U.S. soybeans in each of 2026, 2027, and 2028. Additionally, China will resume purchases of U.S. sorghum and hardwood logs.”

What This Means for U.S. Farmers

For U.S. row-crop producers and livestock farmers alike, the agreement could spell renewed demand from one of the world’s largest agricultural importers. The 25 MMT annual soybean commitment alone represents a major market opportunity for U.S. producers, especially in key states such as Iowa, Illinois and Minnesota — and for U.S. sorghum growers in the High Plains. The lifting of tariffs on beef, pork and dairy also opens additional channels for livestock- and dairy-product exporters.

At Kansas State University, Dr. Allen Featherstone, head of the Department of Agricultural Economics, calls the deal an encouraging sign for U.S. farmers — especially after years of market turbulence.

“It certainly is a bright spot and big news,” Featherstone says. “Traditionally, China has been buying between 25 and 34 million metric tons. So certainly, the 25 million for the next three years will put that in the range of what historically has been done. The 12 million between now and January certainly is a heavy lift but also a big buy.”

Timing And The Broader Picture

According to the White House, the buys start immediately: 12 MMT in the last two months of 2025 and then on into each of the next three years. The scope of the deal also signals more than agriculture: China has agreed to suspend retaliatory tariffs on U.S. goods announced since March 4, 2025 and to remove its “unreliable entity” and end-user listing measures.

Featherstone says that timing matters, since late fall and early winter are when China typically turns to U.S. soybeans before switching to Brazil in February and March.

“Based on current prices, it’s about a $4.5 billion deal between now and January,” he explains. “If you look at where we are the next three years, it’s about a $10 billion deal — and that’s good news.”

He points out that soybeans remain the No. 1 U.S. export to China, making the commodity a central part of trade negotiations.

“For the last three years, soybeans are the number one import in China from the U.S.,” Featherstone says. “As they’re trying to get leverage over the U.S., the soybean market is one of the places where they can have leverage.”

The Next Hurdle? Tracking the Purchases Amid a Government Shutdown

While the commitments are substantial, Featherstone cautions that verifying China’s purchases will be more difficult due to the ongoing U.S. government shutdown, which has delayed USDA export reporting.

“Tracking will be important,” he says. “Last week they purchased three vessels — about 180,000 metric tons. There are sources besides the government, but certainly not having the government data is a problem.”

Without weekly USDA export reports, private-sector analysts are relying on commercial shipping data and trade wire confirmations to track shipments. Economists warn that these unofficial estimates often vary widely, adding uncertainty to market reactions.

Opportunities and Caveats

Agribusiness groups, U.S. exporters and farm economists will be tracking how the commitments translate into actual purchases and shipping logistics. The upside is clear: large volume commitments from China boost U.S. export potential, may help stabilize or raise soybean, sorghum and other commodity prices, and can provide relief to ag sectors hard-hit by prior trade disruptions.

But there are caution flags too. Commitments do not always guarantee immediate shipments. Market conditions, logistics, currency movements, and China’s domestic production may influence actual demand and timing.

Exporters will want to monitor how quickly China follows through, whether the buys are genuinely incremental (vs. simply re-directing existing purchases) and how U.S. logistics chain handles increased volumes.

How This Will Impact Farmers and Ranchers in the Months Ahead

According to the White House fact sheet, here’s how the trade and economic deal, reached between President Donald J. Trump and President Xi Jinping of China, China committed to buying large amounts of soybeans, but China also said it would start purchasing sorghum again. On the livestock front, tariffs were suspended on beef, pork, dairy and more.

So, what should farmers and ranchers watch in the months ahead?

Soybeans: Given the huge volume — 12 MMT in 2025, then 25 MMT annually — soybean exporters will want to watch new crop availability, global competition (e.g., Brazil, Argentina) and U.S. export origination points.
Sorghum & hardwood logs: These categories were specifically called out for resumption of trade, suggesting new or renewed market access in China.
Livestock, dairy & other ag products: With tariffs suspended on beef, pork, dairy, and aquatic products, U.S. meat and dairy exporters may gain longer-term access to Chinese markets.
Tariff & non-tariff measures: The removal of retaliatory tariffs and other counters means fewer barriers for U.S. ag exports, but exporters should still watch for regulatory or sanitary measures that often influence trade.
Supply chain & logistics readiness: Meeting large volume commitments will test U.S. export capacity, shipping, port access and coordination between exporters and farmers.

Looking Ahead

The China-U.S. deal marks a potentially significant turning point for U.S. agricultural exports in 2025: large-scale Chinese commitments, tariff relief, and expanded access could open new markets and relieve pressure in certain ag sectors.

But the real story will be how fast, how reliably, and how fully China follows through with purchases — and how U.S. producers, exporters, and logistics systems respond.

The Unique Relationship Between Sorghum and Conservation

Wed, 17 Sep 2025 13:13:51 GMT

This article is published as part of America’s Conservation Ag Movement , which supports farmers and ranchers in building profitable, resilient futures for their operations.

Grain farmers are facing uphill challenges from all sides. Every day they battle economic uncertainty, rising costs and weather pressures, prompting some to search for diversification opportunities at the farm gate.

As farmers think outside the box, United Sorghum Checkoff Program is urging them to give sorghum a shot.

The Resource Conserving Crop

The organization has gone so far as to officially trademark sorghum as “The Resource Conserving Crop,” highlighting the heritage crop’s ability to weather droughts and sustain people and livestock.

“With deep roots that anchor the land, sorghum reflects the enduring values of American farmers: strength, hard work and self-reliance,” says Norma Ritz Johnson, executive director. “From feeding draft animals of the past to advancing food security and resource-smart farming today, sorghum remains a vital part of agriculture’s future.”

Ritz Johnson highlights these two benefits as sorghum’s foundation for resource conservation:

1. Sorghum thrives with one-third less water.
According to the Checkoff, sorghum can grow with less water use than comparable grains and it can endure extreme heat, giving it an economic advantage both in areas facing mounting weather pressures and in regions where other crops simply cannot be productive.

“Water scarcity is one of the biggest challenges facing agriculture today, and it’s where sorghum shines brightest,” Ritz Johnson says. “Its natural drought tolerance and efficient water use are unmatched, enabling it to produce high yields with significantly less water than other grains.”

The Checkoff notes, according to studies, 91% of sorghum acres are rain-fed, resulting in 1.5 trillion gallons of irrigation water savings per year.

2. Sorghum is a workhorse of sustainability.
Ritz Johnson says sorghum delivers value to farmers through reduced input needs and greater stability. Of note, the Checkoff highlights low seed costs ($6 - $19 per acre depending on seeding rate and seed treatments) as a standout economic benefit of crop adoption.

Sorghum’s benefits as a resource-saving crop extend to its growers as well, with surveys finding greater adoption of conservation tillage and other conservation practices amongst growers.

(United Sorghum Checkoff Program )

Interestingly, the sorghum moniker seems to extend beyond the crop and its conservation attributes and into the farmers who grow it and the agronomic practices they use to do so. The Checkoff has polled its producers and found they are adopting conservation practices, like conservation tillage, at a higher rate than their counterparts.

“Sorghum farmers are natural conservationists because they have to be,” Ritz Johnson says. “In many regions where sorghum is grown, resource constraints — especially water — make conservation tillage not just a choice but a necessity. Farmers understand that by leaving crop residues on the surface, they can protect their soils, retain moisture and reduce the need for inputs like herbicides and fertilizers.”

Ritz Johnson says the conservation leading edge doesn’t end with tillage practices, noting sorghum producers are using precision irrigation techniques like drip and pivot irrigation to optimize water use, cover crops to protect soils and creative crop rotation systems to enhance soil moisture retention and reduce evaporation. That intense water management can add up to a recipe for success even in the driest growing seasons.

In all, for United Sorghum Checkoff Program, this presents an opportunity for sorghum as a crop and sorghum producers to step into a gap that is widening for an ever-evolving production agriculture system in the U.S.

“What’s impressive is how seamlessly sorghum aligns with broader conservation agriculture goals,” Ritz Johnson says. “U.S. sorghum farmers are leading the way in proving that profitability and stewardship can go hand-in-hand, many of which are motivated by the long-term benefits: healthier soils, reduced input costs and greater strength in the face of extreme weather.

“As conservation programs and incentives here and abroad expand, sorghum farmers are well-positioned to lead the charge in sustainable production,” she adds.

Expanding Opportunity

Ritz Johnson now leads an organization that is tasked with ensuring this position for sorghum growers is not squandered. To accomplish that, they are tackling downstream demand by engaging with consumer-packaged goods (CPG) companies who are targeting sustainability in their supply chains.

“Sorghum offers them a natural, proven way to advance those goals — and we’re working hard to help them see the opportunity,” she says.

That vision has USCP doubling down on farm-level data as a means to more fully tell sorghum’s sustainability story, specifically with companies who are looking to meet rigorous industry or organization goals.

They are also expanding conversations beyond traditional markets, Ritz Johnson says, to include gluten-free and ancient grain-based foods as well as exploring alternative sectors such as pet foods and biofuels.

Courting the Consumer

In the vein of direct-to-consumer marketing that other agriculture sectors have pioneered, the United Sorghum Checkoff Program is eyeing opportunities to market the crop to consumers as well as CPGs.

Using targeted outreach through influencers, social media and education, specifically in the food space, the organization is sharing what they believe is a “clear and compelling” message on product labels and in conversations with major food brands.

United Sorghum Checkoff Program is reaching all the way to consumers to tout the crop’s benefits through social media and education in the food space.

(United Sorghum Checkoff Program )

“Consumer awareness is the engine that drives demand for sustainable products, and we’re seeing a growing interest in crops like sorghum that offer real natural resource benefits,” Ritz Johnson says. “The challenge — and the opportunity — is to make sure consumers understand why sorghum stands out.”

“Ultimately, the more consumers recognize the value of sorghum, the more demand we’ll create — not just for the crop itself but for the sustainable practices that farmers are using to grow it.”

America’s Conservation Ag Movement is a public/private collaborative that meets growers across the country where they are on their conservation journey and empowers their next step with technical assistance from USDA-NRCS and innovation solutions and resources from agriculture’s leading providers. Learn more at americasconservationagmovement.com .

New Tool Helps Farmers, Ranchers Identify Conservation Incentive Programs

Tue, 26 Aug 2025 23:55:23 GMT

Conservation incentive programs that fit your farm and specific agronomic practices and/or livestock are not always easy to identify and sign up for online.

But those hurdles could soon be problems in the past, thanks to a new online platform, the Conservation Connector, which was just launched this week by the Conservation Technology Information Center (CTIC)

The new tool allows farmers, ranchers, and farm advisers to easily evaluate conservation incentive programs and connect with technical support at one online site, according to Ryan Heiniger, CTIC executive director.

As a fourth-generation farmer, Heiniger says he knows firsthand how challenging it can be to identify programs, companies and the individuals in charge of them who can provide more details in a phone call or an email.

“You might visit four or five government offices and a dozen websites, only to collect bits and pieces of information on those programs that would be a good fit for you. Our goal with the Conservation Connector is to bring all of that under one roof, so to speak, to help farmers, ranchers and advisers more easily find what is available in their area and fits with their needs,” Heiniger says.

The platform currently has around 500 programs and service providers in the Midwest that are participating, Heiniger says. He notes the tool is continually updated with the latest program offerings from trusted agencies, organizations and conservation partners. In addition, Connector.ag has no associated costs for farmers, ranchers and advisers to use.

“I want to underscore that it’s free for farmers; none of the information is behind any kind of paywall,” he says. “It’s also free for people who want to create a listing.”

The Conservation Connector is easy to navigate – it’s searchable by geography, commodity, incentive type, and/or management practice.

“We’ve made it easy for people who are on a specific mission to filter through,” Heiniger says. “You might be in New York looking for help with pasture renovation, and you don’t want or need to see what programs are available in Iowa. So, you can default right to New York. Or, you can default to a specific crop. The filters can help you ratchet down to the specific information you want to dive deeper into.”

Heiniger says the idea for Conservation Connector originated from Houston Engineering, the Nature Conservancy, and Open Team, and the CTIC invested the past 18 months in developing it.

CTIC invites farmers, ranchers, technical service providers, and conservation partners across the country to explore the platform at Connector.ag . You can provide feedback about your experience to help inform future iterations of the platform here .

Corn, Soybeans Thrive While Drought Hits Other Crops Harder

Mon, 25 Aug 2025 18:45:53 GMT

For a summer that many meteorologists predicted would be characterized by dryness over much of the Midwest, that scenario has not materialized for the most part in corn-soybean growing areas.

The U.S. Drought Monitor released August 21 reports only 5% of corn and 9% of soybean acres are experiencing some level of drought currently.

Just last week Pro Farmer released estimates from its annual Crop Tour for both crops, predicting 182.7 bu. per acre average for corn and a 53 bu. per acre projection for soybeans.

Furthermore, temperatures across much of the Midwest for the week ahead are expected to drop into a cooler-than-usual range for late August, according to the NOAA.

(NOAA)

But not all crops are in a garden spot this summer. Some are in double digit drought conditions. That includes 52% of barley, 22% of cotton, 49% of rice, 32% of sugarbeet and 31% of wheat acres.

Areas Where Dry Conditions Are Settling In
Meteorologist Jack Van Meter called out parts of the rice-growing region on Monday where dry conditions have increased in recent weeks.

“The big dis-improvement in the country, if you will, is down in the Mississippi River Valley,” he reported on AgDay TV. “We’re talking over by Arkansas, Tennessee and Mississippi. We can see moderate drought starting to spread throughout [that area].”

The No. 1 rice producting state, Arkansas, is enduring dry conditions. California, Missouri, Texas and Louisiana are other top rice producing states that are experiencing varying degrees of dryness or drought currently.

(U.S. Drought Monitor)

USDA data shows Arkansas ranks first among rice-producing states, accounting for more than 40 percent of the country’s rice production.

One of the concerns Van Meter says he is watching is what the lack of rainfall in those states will mean to water levels on the Mississippi River.

“If water levels drop, that will mean it’s harder for shipping to get through and start to transport goods out of the country and, actually, into the country for that matter, as well,” he adds.

The U.S. Army Corps of Engineers reports it has been performing maintenance dredging throughout August to keep navigation channels open on the upper Mississippi. Navigation on the lower Mississippi continues to be affected by persistently low water levels, despite recent rainfall.

Rain In The Forecast This Week
Van Meter says a good slug of moisture will come in from the Rocky Mountains this week and across Oklahoma. That rain pattern will then move lower into the Southeast.

This week's precip forecast by @NOAA's @NWSWPC.

Large parts of the West finally see needed monsoon precip. The S. Plains into the Lower Miss River Basin are expected to see inches of rain. FL too.

Little to no rain for the Midwest (except MO) and Mid-Atlantic. #drought @NWS pic.twitter.com/2gt1vrEsjF
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) August 25, 2025

“We’re going to be watching the Southeast for some impressive rainfall over by northern Florida and also by Georgia and South Carolina,” he says. “We could be seeing some impressive moisture moving in from the Gulf – obviously, something we’ll be keeping a rather close eye on.”

As the end of August plays out, Van Meter says it appears a dry pattern will set up for the Great Lakes area in the Midwest, just as the country heads into Labor Day weekend and the final, unofficial weekend of summer.

Parts of the western U.S., where farmers are dealing with severe (D2) and extreme (D3) drought this summer, are expected to see rain by the end of the week.

“We are going to be seeing some abnormally wet conditions, or at least wetter than normal conditions to end the month, out there in Oklahoma. That is actually going to continue through much of the Rocky Mountains and head over to the West Coast,” he says.

Your next read: How Pro Farmer 2025 Crop Estimates Compare and Contrast With USDA Expectations

Fusing The Best of Regenerative Ag and Smart Farming: Senator Marshall’s Take on MAHA

Fri, 25 Jul 2025 14:22:10 GMT

Having grown up as a Kansas fifth generation farm kid and spending many years as a physician, U.S. Senator Roger Marshall, R-Kan., views the Trump administration’s Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) agenda through a different lens than many of his Beltway colleagues.

“I delivered a baby every day for some 25 years in my hometown,” Marshall says. “And certainly, diet and nutrition are so, so, so important. When I came to Congress, this was one of the things I wanted to address. And I want to start by saying there’s no MAHA without American agriculture leadership.”

RELATED: MAHA Report’s Surprising Stance on Glyphosate, Atrazine Explained

While much of the recent reporting around MAHA focuses on unpacking the movement’s outwardly anti-pesticide bent , Marshall has fashioned his own, more conventional ag-friendly version covering four distinct pillars:

Increase American agricultural efficiency
Grow healthier, nutrient rich food
Unlock affordable health care access for millions of Americans
Focus on health care resources to combat the mental health epidemic

“I believe soil health leads to healthy food, which leads to healthy people,” Marshall says. “I hear the MAHA group and I hear the ag folks. I have a foot in each of those worlds, and I am trying to bring them together. Because guess what? American agriculture wants healthy children just as much as anybody.”

RELATED: Decode MAHA’s Potential Effect on the Agriculture Sector

Marshall believes MAHA can achieve that goal by embracing some – but not all – of the regenerative ag principles Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., espoused on the campaign trail. American farmers are already reducing chemical use with tools like selective spraying systems and mechanical weeding implements, but the senator knows there’s still meat on that bone. He views it less as a return to “40 acres and a mule” and more as a combination of pieces and parts from the regenerative ag playbook with precision ag technology generously sprinkled into the mix.

“Regenerative ag should be centered around precision ag and growing more with less,” he says. “We’re already using 60% less fertilizers and less pesticides. I think we must continue to decrease the amount of fertilizers and pesticides, so there’s less residue on that loaf of bread in the grocery store.”

Marshall is currently rallying Congressional support for the bipartisan Plant Biostimulant Act. This yet-to-be-ratified farm policy would streamline the FDA approval process under FIFRA for new, novel and natural modes of action. But the senator emphasizes the program must remain voluntary.

“About 5% of the farm bill is conservation practices,” he says. “So, I would streamline the FDA process and allow these biostimulants to be one of the options. It’s not a subsidy, though. I just want to make the regulatory process easier. And that’s going to make it more affordable, as well.”

More MAHA: 250-Plus Ag Groups Ask Trump Administration To ‘Correct’ MAHA Commission’s ‘Activities’

Another goal is for the American producer to embrace best-in-class crop production and sustainability practices. The Kansas senator points to one example from his home state as the creative and nimble thinking he wants to see American farmers embrace.

“We have a group of sorghum growers that have their own mill,” Marshall says. “And they’re selling that flour directly to the infant formula (companies) as well as to European markets. The EU has higher standards, so to speak, than America does, and so be it. I don’t know if they’re necessary, but I don’t make the rules. These Kansas farmers have cracked the code and they’re getting a premium for their sorghum right now, and all it takes is a little extra effort.”

Your Next Read: Can Pulse Crops Double Acreage by 2030? The Push to Include More Pulses in the MAHA Movement

The One Big Beautiful Bill Will Boost 2025 PLC Payments: Here's a Per-Acre Breakdown

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 20:00:31 GMT

Both the Senate and House GOP worked around the clock to get President Donald Trump’s massive tax bill passed this week. The One Big Beautiful Bill, which was more than 800 pages long, barely passed in both the Senate and the House, but is receiving high praise from many agricultural groups who argue the bill is a win for agriculture.

On Thursday, House GOP leaders overcame objections from even Republican lawmakers on provisions for SNAP, Medicaid and rural hospitals. All but two Republicans, Reps. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., and Brian Fitzpatrick, R-Pa., voted for the bill, which passed 218 to 214.

.@SpeakerJohnson officially signs the One Big Beautiful Bill— sending it to @POTUS' desk to be signed into law.

Tax cuts, border security, energy dominance, and so much more are coming your way. 🇺🇸 pic.twitter.com/elzAg7s4LP
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 3, 2025

But for agriculture, tax provisions received high praise, including avoiding a year-end tax hike and eliminating the so-called death tax.

“America’s cattle farmers and ranchers are pleased by the final passage of the One Big Beautiful Bill. This legislation will protect family farmers and ranchers from the devastation of the Death Tax, it will avoid a massive year-end tax hike that could have put cattle operations out of business, it expands and protects many of the small business tax deductions that family producers rely on to save more of the hard-earned money, and it funds critical foreign animal disease prevention measures that protect cattle health,” says Ethan Lane, senior vice president of government affairs, National Cattlemen’s Beef Association (NCBA).

The bill also provides $66 billion in new spending for farm programs. According to Agri-Pulse , that’s the largest infusion of new money into farm programs since 2002.

These are changes and enhancements many ag groups were pushing for in the next farm bill.

According to Farm CPA Paul Neiffer , a provision in the bill will pay the greater of ARC or PLC for the 2025 crop.

“Therefore, any anticipate increase in PLC payments would likely be the minimum amount paid to farmers for 2025 but remember none of these payments will begin until October 2026,” Neiffer explained in this in-depth analysis . “There will be a payment limit of $155,000 on ARC and PLC, but LLCs and S corporations will be treated the same as a general partnership.”

Based on Neiffer’s calculations, here’s how it will impact PLC. On average, it will add:

Corn: $22.52 per acre
Soybeans: $42.46 per acre
Wheat: $32.77 per acre
Sorghum: $9.90 per acre
Cotton: $93.05 per acre

Neiffer says while everyone’s PLC yield is different, he simply used an average yield to calculate these figures.

Potential extra PLC per acre payments. Click to enlarge.

(Paul Neiffer )

“You will note that based on June MYA prices, projected PLC payments are estimated at about $2.6 billion. Now, under the old law, all of the ARC acres elected would be removed from this table, however, remember that the new law pays the farmer of the higher of ARC or PLC so the first projected column shows what the minimum payment essentially would be,” Neiffer explains.

You can read Neiffer’s full and in-depth analysis here .

President and CEO of National Cotton Council (NCC) Gary Adams says this bill provides additional support desperately needed this year.

“The 2025 crop is going to be or shaping up to be the third year in a row that farmers will see both the market prices and the support levels below cost of production,” Adams says. “One of the reasons why this bill is so important is that for the reference price that applies to the PLC and ARC programs, those higher reference prices that are in this legislation apply to this year’s crop, and that is important because it will help if prices stay low, and stay where they are. This will put some additional support, in the grower’s pocket for the crop that they’re going to harvest this fall.”

American Farm Bureau applauded the work by Congress this week, saying, “More than half of farmers are losing money, so an increase in reference prices is desperately needed, and tax tools will help farmers and ranchers plan for the next season and the next generation.”

The bill now heads to Trump’s desk, which he plans to sign Friday at the White House.

EPA’s Proposed Rule A Potential ‘Game Changer’ for Farmers

Wed, 18 Jun 2025 21:29:34 GMT

The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency’s (EPA) proposed Renewable Volume Obligations (RVOs) for 2026 and 2027 have the potential to be a game changer for agriculture.

The EPA’s proposed rule, which comes under the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) – and named the Set 2 Rule – would increase biomass-based diesel requirements, from 3.35 billion gallons in 2025 to 5.61 billion gallons in 2026, supporting American row-crop growers in the process.

“It creates a great opportunity to move from 3.35 to 5.61; it’s a massive increase,” says Caleb Ragland, a Kentucky farmer and president of the American Soybean Association (ASA).

“We have long lobbied for giving the American farmer a chance to sell American soybeans. Crush them here, use the oil to make American fuel and keep our economy going, ” Ragland told AgriTalk host Michelle Rook, on Wednesday.

Three Regulatory Takeaways

There are at least three key regulatory shifts that would accompany the volume increases:

1. Heightened quotas for cellulosic biofuel, biomass-based diesel (BBD), and advanced biofuels.

2. Prioritization of soybean oil and ethanol produced in the U.S. Imported biofuels would earn just 50% of the Renewable Identification Number (RIN) value compared to U.S.-based fuels.

3. Removal of renewable electricity (eRINs) as a qualifying fuel, reinforcing liquid biofuels as the Renewable Fuel Standard centerpiece.

In a press release, EPA said that these measures will cut U.S. oil import reliance by roughly 150,000 barrels per day across 2026 and 2027, backing domestic biofuel producers and strengthening rural economies.

“This [proposed rule by EPA] is not only good for farms, it’s good for rural communities. All of that trickles down and stays here in America. It’s a wonderful thing,” Ragland says.

An Update And Outlook On 45Z

The 45Z Clean Fuel Production Tax Credit was one of the few Inflation Reduction Act (IRA) incentives spared in the House’s proposed budget reconciliation bill. That’s likewise the case in the Senate. Both versions extend 45Z from 2027 to 2031.

“That’s a huge win … that certainly gives us a little bit of certainty in the world of uncertainty we’re living in right now,” Amy France, a Kansas farmer and chair of the National Sorghum Producers, said on AgriTalk.

Ragland agrees but noted ASA is concerned about some “last-minute” changes that are being proposed in the Senate version regarding the 45Z tax credit and foreign feedstocks.

While the House version modifies 45Z to prevent the use of certain foreign feedstocks outside of North America, such as used cooking oil, the Senate committee’s proposal allows use of feedstocks outside the U.S. but cuts the tax credit by 20%.

“We want to encourage that to get reversed … there’s no reason to give American dollars as tax credits to foreign entities that are bringing in foreign used cooking oil,” Ragland says. “We need to get that ironed out, and hopefully we will, but, but overall, there’s great opportunity here.”

France says she is encouraged by the extension granted 45Z. “We were thrilled to hear EPA specifically calling out sorghum as a dependable, low-cost biofuel feedstock. It just goes to show that recognition for sorghum and the realm we’re playing in today.”

Ragland and France weigh in on a variety of additional topics – from trade to state of current crops across the country to the need for a new Farm Bill – on this segment of AgriTalk. Listen to it here:

All The Details: Inside John Deere’s New F8 and F9 Forage Harvesters

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 18:20:36 GMT

John Deere is rolling out two new forage harvesters for North American dairy producers and custom harvesting operations.

The brand new F8 and F9 Series feature three factory-installed operator cab options, a technology stack that will one day enable autonomous operation, and enhanced feed quality via an integrated inoculant dosing system.

How are F8 and F9 different?
The F8 Series (425PS to 645PS) is a narrow base model that takes the place of Deere’s 8000 Series forage harvester, while the F9 Series (700PS to 1020PS) replaces the 9000 Series. Within the F9 Series is the F9 1000, which is Deere’s largest forage harvest machine to date.

(Editor’s Note: “PS” stands for Pferdestärke, which is the German term for horsepower. PS to horsepower is not an apples-to-apples equal ratio. The F9 1000, for example, features 1020PS which equates to 1,006HP, according to the manufacturer.)

The F9 is available in two engine options:

John Deere 18X (no DEF required)
Liebherr V12 24L

It has five horsepower options, while the F8 comes with the JD14X engine and can be configured across six horsepower options.

The manufacturer last rolled out completely new forage harvesters in 2019.

How much will each new model cost?

The feed rolls on John Deere’s F8 and F9 forage harvesters have integrated metal detection to keep unwanted material out of your feed.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

John Deere is not sharing its pricing just yet, but the two new models are built at its Zweibrucken, Germany, factory. John Deere dealers will begin taking orders for the aggressively styled, technology-packed harvesters this fall, with final delivery in time for the 2026 forage harvesting season.

Deere representatives declined comment on what effect, if any, the still-developing U.S.and E.U. tariff situation could have on its launch plans.

Ahead of the launch, Farm Journal went to Madison, Wisc., to kick the tires and learn all about the new machines. The F8 and F9 harvesters we viewed and climbed into were the first finished production units off the factory line. Deere says several units will be field tested with U.S. customers ahead of the full fall launch.

“We’re really excited about the new cab and the technology we’ve added to these machines like central tire inflation, ground speed automation and the new kernel processing units,” says Bergen Nelson, go-to-market manager, combines and forage harvesters.

Here’s some of what we learned about the new forage harvesters:

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Cab Comforts: The same three operator cab options offered with Deere’s X and S Series combines — Select, Premium and Ultimate — are available on the F8 and F9 Series. A smoothly swiveling captain’s chair, as well as an all-new corner post display that shows real-time machine data, are among the additions. Operators who spend long hours in the cab will also appreciate integrated entertainment like SXM Radio and an optional mini fridge.

(Matthew J. Grassi )

Foundational Deere Tech Stack: Each new forage harvester in the series includes Deere’s baseline precision tech enablement stack — which consists of its G5 display, Starfire 7500 receiver and JDLink modem.

Central Tire Inflation System: A completely new feature (top left inset photo) within the G5 display allows the operator to adjust front tire PSI up or down from the cab.

John Deere Inoculant Dosing System 2.0

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Inoculant Dosing System 2.0: New on both the F8 and F9, a high-volume 85 gallon inoculant tank and integrated pump allow the user to accurately adjust silage inoculant dosage rates from the G5 display in the cab. The system is easy to pump and prime as well with the touch of a button located at the rear of the machine.

Ground Speed Automation: This cruise control-like option reads RPMs and throttles the harvester up or down based on crop conditions. For example, harvesting corn at higher moisture levels will increase power output, so the machine will automatically slow down to ensure it doesn’t plug up or do a sub-optimal job harvesting. This feature comes standard on all base models for both series and does not require a yearly subscription unlock or per-acre fee.

Pro Touch Harvest: Another new feature within the G5 display allows the operator to shift the machine from road transport mode to harvest mode in a single click. It can also be used to quickly engage AutoTrac and ground speed automation once the operator arrives at the edge of field.

This all-new XStream 305 Kernel Processing (KP) unit is built by Scherer in Sioux Falls, South Dakota.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

New Kernal Processing (KP) Units: The new harvesters feature two completely redesigned KP units, the Ultimate 250 (also made in Germany) and the Scherer XStream 305, which is made in Sioux Falls, S.D. An integrated winch and internal rail mounting system makes switching the machine from corn forage to hay forage in the field quick and simple. The number signifies each KP unit’s roll diameter width in millimeters.

“Both KPs will go in both machines and have four different roll options depending on how aggressive the dairyman wants their end feed quality to be,” says Shane Campbell, product marketing manager, forage harvesters.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

Integrated Harvest Lab 3000: This on-demand constituent sensing module pulls over 4,000 samples per second with +/- 2% accuracy, and John Deere says it can save dairy operations time and money versus collecting and sending samples to a lab. The sensor tech (available as an add-on option) enables accurate measurement and documentation of dry matter, starch, protein, neutral detergent fiber and acid detergent fiber for both harvested forage and manure. The data can be stored, organized and shared via Deere’s Operations Center. Within Operations Center, users can take geo-referenced data and build out spatial starch content — as well as moisture and protein — maps for hybrid selection and fertility management. Because if you can’t measure it, you can’t manage it.

Active Fill Control 3.0: Using sensors and cameras on the grain spout, this tech feature automatically detects the trailer or grain cart next to the forage harvester and begins filling it with a preselected fill strategy. This reduces the number of times an operator has to adjust the spout manually and also lessens fatigue and neck strain, according to Deere.

(Matthew J. Grassi)

New Operating Modes: Several of the models within the F9 Series offer what Deere is calling its “Engine Power Plus” feature — which gives a sizeable horsepower boost when the machines senses it needs a little extra chopping power to the harvesting head. There is also an ECO mode that can be toggled on when the machines don’t need the extra torque.

Ease-Of-Access: Both models have side and rear panels that easily open to grant full access to the inner workings of the machines, making the new forage harvesters much easier to service and maintain without a lift or other heavy specialized equipment. The machine is setup so techs and mechanically-minded farmers will not have to climb underneath it to perform daily maintenance.

“At the end of the day, we know it’s all about the cow, and these machines will put out quality feed,” Nelson says. “We’ll have these out at the farm shows this summer, including Farm Progress Show, World Ag Expo, World Dairy Expo and the U.S. Custom Harvesters Convention.”

Your Next Read - Renewed Confidence: The Dairy Industry is Optimistic in 2025

Triple-Action Foliar Fungicide Targets Tar Spot, Southern Rust and Frogeye Leaf Spot

Thu, 05 Jun 2025 19:36:46 GMT

Farmers will have a new foliar fungicide, Corteva Forcivo, to include in their disease management plans for the 2026 season, pending registration from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA).

Forcivo will feature three modes of action – flutriafol, azoxystrobin and fluindapyr – to address foliar diseases in corn and soybeans via overlapping preventive and curative activity.

Key diseases targeted include tar spot, southern rust and frogeye leaf spot, among others, according to Mike Eiberger, U.S. marketing leader for Corteva.

The fungicide will offer farmers these key benefits:

Triple-action foliar disease control. Forcivo fungicide will be available in a convenient premix that growers can apply at a use rate of 7 to 9 fluid ounces per acre. The multiple modes of action will help ensure that if a disease is less controlled by one key ingredient, others will help manage the threat, notes Eiberger in a press release.

Multiple row crop disease flexibility. In addition to addressing disease issues in corn and soybeans, Forcivo will provide broad-spectrum disease control in wheat, barley, sorghum and triticale.

Bolster plant health and yield potential. Forcivo will provide up to 30 days of residual activity to protect crops and maximize return on investment all the way through harvest – even from late-season, yield-robbing diseases – according to Eiberger.

Corteva reports farmers will be able to take advantage of the upfront savings with its TruChoiceoffer and save on their purchase of Forcivofungicide by bundling it with other Corteva crop protection and seed products, such as herbicides, nitrogen stabilizers and Pioneer brand seed. With the TruChoice offer, farmers will be able to save money when funding a prepay account online or through a participating retailer, according to the press release.

Pending registration approvals, Forcivo fungicide will be available for growers to include in their 2026 disease management plans. To learn more about Forcivo fungicide, visit Corteva.us/Forcivo or contact a local Corteva representative.

Your next read: Ferrie: Unravel The Mystery Of Ugly Corn Syndrome To Reduce Yield Losses

Farmers and Farm Groups Push Back on MAHA Report

Thu, 22 May 2025 22:53:30 GMT

Agriculture might have had a collective “we told you so” moment on Thursday, given its swift response to the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) Commission’s report unveiled earlier that day.

Many farm organizations say the 68-page document, Making Our Children Healthy Again Report , is filled with “ fear-based rather than science-based information about pesticides ,” positioning that will sow seeds of distrust with the American public.

“This report will stir unjustified fear and confusion among American consumers who live in the country with the safest and most abundant food supply,” says Alexandra Dunn, president and CEO of CropLife America, in a prepared statement.

What The MAHA Report Says
The MAHA report declares: “Today’s children are the sickest generation in American history in terms of chronic disease … . These preventable trends continue to worsen each year, posing a threat to our nation’s health, economy, and military readiness.”

The crisis, the report adds, can be traced in part to the consolidation of the U.S. food system. On one hand, the report says the progress made in producing food is “largely thanks to the hard work of American farmers, ranchers, and food scientists.”

However, the report adds the rise of ultra-processed foods has corresponded with a pattern of corporatization and consolidation in the U.S. food system. The report lays the blame for many of U.S. children’s health problems on the food they are eating:

The American food system is safe but could be healthier. Most American children’s diets are dominated by ultra-processed foods (UPFs) high in added sugars, chemical additives, and saturated fats, while lacking sufficient intakes of fruits and vegetables. This modern diet has been linked to a range of chronic diseases, including obesity, type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease, and certain cancers. The excessive consumption of UPFs has led to a depletion of essential micronutrients and dietary fiber, while increasing the consumption of sugars and carbohydrates, which negatively affects overall health.

Nearly 70% of an American child’s calories today comes from ultra-processed foods (increased from zero 100 years ago), many of which are designed to override satiety mechanisms and increase caloric intake.

UPFs make up over 50% of the diets of pregnant and postpartum mothers.

American children’s exposure to environmental chemicals: The cumulative load of thousands of synthetic chemicals that our children are exposed to through the food they eat, the water they drink, and the air they breathe may pose risks to their long-term health, including neurodevelopmental and endocrine effects.

Over 40,000 chemicals are registered for use in the U.S. Pesticides, microplastics, and dioxins are commonly found in the blood and urine of American children and pregnant women—some at alarming levels.

Children are particularly vulnerable to chemicals during critical stages of development—in utero, infancy, early childhood, and puberty. Research suggests that for some chemicals, this cumulative load of exposures may be driving higher rates of chronic disease.

According to Courtney Gaine, Ph.D, R.D., Sugar Association president and CEO, added sugars make up around 12% of Americans’ total calories — the lowest level in 40 years and near the lowest level ever recorded at 11% in 1909. The steep decline in added sugars intake over the past 25 years has coincided with rising rates of childhood obesity and chronic disease.

“America’s hardworking sugarbeet and sugarcane farmers agree that chronic diseases are serious and warrant attention and rigorous scientific review to determine their root causes,” Gaine says. “We are confident that continued evaluation of gold-standard evidence will reaffirm what hundreds of years of history have indicated that balanced diets have room for moderate amounts of real sugar, which plays many important functional roles in foods and generally cannot be removed without adding industrial additives like artificial sweeteners that Americans prefer to avoid.”

Calls Go Out For USDA and EPA To Respond
CropLife America’s Dunn is concerned the MAHA report casts doubt on the integrity of EPA’s federal review process for crop protection products .

“Without access to EPA-approved pesticides, significant crop losses would threaten the livelihood of family farms and lead to higher grocery prices and fewer healthy food options for families – the very opposite of what the MAHA Commission seeks to achieve,” Dunn says.

The Agricultural Retailers Association criticizes the anti-science pesticide claims in MAHA Report , saying: “Hidden in the report is a call for consideration of ‘actions that further regulate or restrict crop protection tools beyond risk-based and scientific processes set forth by Congress.’ In other words, the MAHA Commission Report calls for the United States to abandon its gold standard regulatory system and instead embrace a hazard-based precautionary system that includes non-scientific factors, such as that in the European Union.”

To ARA’s point, the MAHA Report calls out atrazine, chlorpyriphos and glyphosate on page 35 of the document as pesticides that are “exposure pathways” for children.

The MAHA Report calls out atrazine, chlorpyriphos and glyphosate as pesticides that are “exposure pathways” for children. This graphic element was published on page 35 of the Report.

(The MAHA Report)

Farmers and  more than 300 agriculture organizations  have engaged with the Commission to advocate for the preservation of science-based systems and credible data in their evaluations of products and practices essential to food and agriculture – including pesticides such as glyphosate – in recent weeks. However, Zippy Duvall, American Farm Bureau Federation president, says farmers “were excluded from development of the report, despite many requests for a seat at the table.”

The American Soybean Association (ASA) says it strongly rebukes the MAHA report : “[It is] brazenly unscientific and damaging to consumer confidence in America’s safe, reliable food system. Should the [Trump] administration act on the report — which was drafted entirely behind closed doors — it will harm U.S. farmers, increase food costs for consumers, and worsen health outcomes for all Americans. ASA calls on President Trump, who has long been a friend of farmers, to step in and correct the Commission’s deeply misguided report.”

Jon Doggett, former CEO of the National Corn Growers Association and current principal at Camas Creek Consulting, says he would like to hear more perspective from leadership at USDA and EPA on the Report.

“We would hope that Secretary Rollins and [EPA] Administrator Zeldin would have a lot more say on this than what we are seeing so far,” Doggett says.

Doggett expands on his concerns regarding the MAHA Report in a conversation with Host Chip Flory on AgriTalk.

Individuals who want to share their perspectives with the Trump Administration and Congress can submit a letter at https://www.farmervoicesmatter.org .

The Executive Order creating the MAHA Commission directs a second report, providing policy recommendations, be issued within 80 days.

Your next read: Farmers Brace for Impact: What the MAHA Report Could Mean for Agriculture

Can Farmers Weather The Trade Uncertainty Storm From China?

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 19:44:40 GMT

China is vitally important to the U.S. as an ag trading partner: 50% of the soybeans the U.S. sends abroad are destined for Chinese ports. You can’t snap your fingers and replace that demand, even if every single one of the 130+ currently-in-negotiation trade deals are resolved to favorable terms for the U.S.

“And I keep pointing out to people that it is soybeans, but also other crops as well,” says Joe Glauber, former USDA chief economist and a current emeritus fellow with the International Food Policy Research Institute. He says 80% of U.S. grown sorghum is also exported to China.

Related: China Increases Tariffs to 125%: What Ag Exports Will Be Most Impacted

The last time these two world power ag markets were besieged with trade uncertainty, during the first Trump administration, soybean exports to China dropped 75% from the previous year, Glauber says. He also thinks it’s too early to get a long-term read on how the market will react to the Trade Wars, because tariff policy seems to shift as often as an eastern Iowa headwind.

And unfortunately, if you’re looking for a silver lining in the renewable fuels arena, Glauber also thinks it’s too early to know how that market will be impacted. There have been increases to domestic biofuels processing capacity over the last five years, but its hard to get a read on how EPA will approach the market.

“I don’t have a sense yet of how this EPA will operate,” he adds. “There’s always been tensions in those agencies between oil on the one hand and renewables on the other. Obviously, those would be good alternative markets for our soybeans if you can’t export, and going into invested crush would be a nice alternative, but we’ll see.”

Cotton is another domestic crop that is in a world of hurt, Glauber says. Acres are “really seeing a decline” and that’s not a one off this year either, it’s become a long standing trend at this point.

With soybeans, cotton, and even corn prices in a bad spot, one would presume there will be a wave of farm foreclosures hitting rural America this year. Thankfully, though, direct payments have helped stave off that potential nightmare, for now. But nevertheless, the threat is real and it looms large.

“Remember, we are getting a ton of money put into the sector this year from the bill that was passed by Congress in December,” Glauber says. “So that’s $31 billion coming in with $10 billion of that going out to farmers as direct income support to offset low margins. So, I don’t think we’ll see a lot of farms going out of business. But certainly, if these short, tight margins persist for a long time, then that’s going to affect people.”

Glauber is optimistic though that it won’t take a seismic “Big Bang” level event to punch up some upside into crop prices. He thinks some drought, or even “a little dryness showing up in the part of the world” would make the markets react positively.

“That tells me that stocks are still…it’s not burdensome that they’re really depressing prices,” he says. “But that said, I mean, these are low prices and relative to where we’ve been, margins are still tight.”

One area of American ag that is thriving right now is the protein side, with hog, beef, and poultry markets all “a bit of a different situation (going on) there,” Glauber adds.

You can listen to the full AgriTalk episode here.

Your Next Read: Follow These 3 Rules To Manage Commodity Market Uncertainty

New Administration Resets Priorities for Nation's Leading Commodity Groups

Tue, 11 Mar 2025 12:48:44 GMT

A new administration has reset some of the priorities for the coming year for the nation’s leading commodity associations.

American Soybean Association CEO Steve Censky says they have concerns about the Make America Healthy Again (MAHA) program under new Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and are playing offense to protect seed oils, which he has labeled as unhealthy.

“Because seed oils, of course, half of the soybean oil use is used for human consumption, the other half for biofuels, and we need to maintain that domestic market,” Censky says.

They also don’t want to lose the use of GMO’s or glyphosate which Kennedy has wanted to eliminate.

Censky says, “Our hope is is that Secretary Kennedy will be taking a look at the science and be guided by the science, but we also want to make sure that Secretary Rollins and Administrator Zeldin have all of the support and information they need so that to ensure that whatever decisions are coming out of the MAHA commission and recommendations that they are science -based.”

Trade is also high on their list as tariff uncertainty continues, especially focused on top customers Canada, Mexico and China.

He says, “We export half of the crop that we grow here in the United States. The soybeans that are grown are exported overseas. Number one market is China. Number two, individual country market is Mexico. And Canada is our fourth largest meal market, and so those are all important markets for us.”

The last trade war put soybeans at the tip of the spear.So they’re hoping tariffs are a tool for negotiating trade deals including with China.

“You know, U .S. agriculture lost, according to the ERS, about $27 billion from the last trade war 71% of that was born by soybean farmers in the soybean industry. And we don’t want to go through that again. And it would be far better to reach a phase two trade agreement.”

Biofuels policy is key for soybean and corn farmers as uncertainty with 45Z has many biodiesel plants shuttered and guidance is needed on Sustainable Aviation Fuel.

But Neil Caskey, CEO of the National Corn Growers Association says year round E15 is their top priority for 2025.

“We’re looking at year-round, nationwide, E -15 as a driver of that demand creation in the short term. And so, for every 1% increase in the blend rate, equates to almost 500 million bushels of demand. And so E15 is not a mandate, so that’s not going to happen.”

He thinks odds of passage an E15 bill are highs as they have support, even from the American Petroleum Institute.

“The stars are aligning once more to get that completed in the next CR that expires in a couple of weeks and we are grateful for a lot of strong bipartisan support out in Washington, D .C.”

Trade takes the second spot for NCGA, both striking new deals and avoiding a trade war with Mexico as their top corn customer and Canada a leading ethanol importer.

Caskey says their analysis documents the damage from tariffs.

“Not good for corn farmers, farmers in general. We did that in conjunction with the American Soybean Association and it concluded that a trade war is really only good for Brazil and we hope to avoid that.”

For the nation’s sorghum producers, their top ask, just like last year, is getting a new farm bill passed.

Tim Lust, CEO, National Sorghum Producers Association says, “There’s obviously challenges in the country. We need the certainty that farm policy provides and that underpinning for growers and their financing institutions and so certainly that continues to be a huge lift but something that is very important to our growers.”

Trade is also high on their list but instead of playing defense, they want to play offense, growing marketing in Southeast Asia, China and India.

Lust says, “Our industry has, you know, there’s many countries around the world we still don’t have access to. And so, just excited about the opportunity to talk about what we can do to get into other markets.”

And they too are awaiting details on 45Z biofuels policy.

Passing a modernized farm bill also tops the agenda for wheat growers says National Association of Wheat Growers CEO Chandler Goule.

“You know, making sure we adjust our PLC prices, make sure we maintain our voluntary conservation programs, but most importantly that we keep crop insurance, if not expand it so that it is more affordable and can cover more more growers across the country.”

He says they’ll know how much money Congress has to write a bill after budget reconciliation is completed.

“So far we’ve not heard of any cuts out of title one or title two or the crop insurance title so hopefully we can maintain that amount so that we can at least write a farm bill that will be reflective again of the current cost of production.”

And they’re also hopeful for tax policy extensions including the 1031 like kind land exchanges.

Goule says,"Making sure that we keep a lot of those tax cuts that President Trump put in that first time, making sure that we maintain stepped up bases, which is critical for our growers as land values continue to go up.”

Export expansion is also key for NAWG and they’re watching how DOGE impacts programs like USAID.

“All those programs where we send our U .S. wheat to developing countries is critical to help us maintain a good domestic market price,” he adds.

And its key because half of the U.S. wheat crop is sold internationally.

Rollins Promises Grain Farmers Improving Ag Economy is a Top Priority

Mon, 03 Mar 2025 18:25:55 GMT

Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins says USDA is ready to roll out a number of programs that have been on hold pending review.

“We have completed our review and are releasing the funds for the Environmental Quality Incentive Program, the Conservation Stewardship Program and the agriculture conservation easement program,” Rollins said. “We are releasing those funds back to all of you who participate in those programs.”

Rollins made the announcement Sunday in Denver at the 2025 Commodity Classic where organizers estimate 10,000 will be on hand for the three-day event. The annual gathering of corn, soybeans, wheat and sorghum farmers from across the country welcomed her address ahead of what’s likely to be another busy week for the 33rd Secretary of Agriculture.

New Emergency Commodity Assistance Program to Distribute Farmer Funds

Rollins also formally announced economic assistance will be distributed by March 21 .

“The economic assistance program will be called the Emergency Commodity Assistance Program, or ECAP,” Rollins said. “ECAP is the new program to help us distribute that $30 billion in funds that Congress passed in December. They gave us 90 days to start distributing that first $10 billion in economic assistance, and we are on track to beat that and get that money starting to move immediately.”

Rollins is also looking at the application process and asking her team to find ways to streamline the distribution of those funds.

“In cases where we have information already on file, a pre-filled application will be sent to you,” Rollins said. “FSA will use the 2024 acreage reporting data you previously filed to initiate that application process. This is just common sense.”

Farmers who might have missed the above window will be asked to review their information, sign and return a completed application to their local FSA Service Center. Rollins also stressed the development of new tools that will use fair and transparent standards for calculating payments.

“Just in case there was any doubt, it will not be based on DEI metrics. Instead, it will be based on need, regardless of your skin color or geographic location,” Rollins said.

Trade, market development and demand remain serious concerns for the Commodity Classic crowd. At the end of February, President Donald Trump confirmed 25% tariffs for Mexico and Canada will take effect March 4. Farmers are worried their grain and other ag goods could face retaliatory measures and eventually exacerbate the U.S. agricultural trade deficit.

During a press conference, Rollins was asked about tariffs on Canada given that 87% of the potash used in the Midwest come from the province of Saskatchewan.

“I have had conversations with [Trump] specific to that issue, and will continue, but also the other teams from U.S. Trade Representative, Jameson Greer, to Howard Ludnick, Commerce Secretary, are leading a lot of these conversations and negotiations on behalf of this White House,” Rollins said. “Our conversations are ongoing and will continue. I fully recognize the issue.”

You can watch a 16-minute video of Secretary Rollins’ remarks at Commodity Classic on Farm Journal TV . The new subscription video service offers the convenience of on-demand access to hundreds of hours of content, including “AgDay,” “U.S. Farm Report,” “Machinery Pete” TV, Farm Journal’s podcast network, event footage, educational programming and more.

Farm Bill Push to the Finish Line

A soft farm economy for grain growers is at the top of the list heading into the 2025 planting season. It’s also why Rollins told the crowd she’s pushing Congress to get to work on finishing a new farm bill.

“How do we get the farm bill across the finish line?” Rollins asked rhetorically. “It is inexcusable it has yet to happen, and I understand there are a lot of factors out of the control of those who are making the decision, but there’s a new game in town. My commitment to you is that we get a farm bill done by the end of this year and we can avoid punting a full five-year bill for a third time.”

She says a new farm bill is needed to provide certainty for farmers and shore up a sputtering farm economy.

“The state of the ag economy, especially for row crop producers, is perhaps the worst it’s been in 100 years,” Rollins said. “I hear you when you tell me the department’s latest net farm income update showed the decline in crop cash receipts over the last two years were the largest in recorded history.”

USDA data shows farm inputs are up nearly 30% over the past five years while corn, soybean, sorghum and wheat prices have fallen by 30% in the last three years alone.

“The agriculture trade deficit is set to hit a record $49 billion in 2025 — that is money directly from your bottom line,” Rollins said.

The Ag Secretary pledged to the crowd, it’s her goal to find new trading partners and open market access for producers in the next few years.

“I know firsthand how important trade is to your success, and I’m committed as a top priority to work with this President and travel the world to expand market access for all of our crops and all of our producers around America,” Rollins added.

Ducks Unlimited and National Sorghum Producers Pair Up to Promote Water-Smart Agriculture

Fri, 15 Nov 2024 18:29:01 GMT

Ducks Unlimited (DU) and National Sorghum Producers (NSP) have announced a partnership to focus efforts on water savings and market innovation. The goal is to support growers and rural communities in water efficiency efforts that:

expand waterfowl habitat
recharge below-ground aquifers
support new value-added opportunities around ‘water-smart’ commodities

“If there’s one thing that ducks and agriculture both need it’s water,” says Adam Putnam, DU CEO. “DU and NSP have a shared interest in conserving America’s precious water resources, and our collaboration will enable us to achieve success that wouldn’t be possible alone. Together, we’ll promote voluntary, water-smart agriculture practices, and we look forward to finding new, innovative methods of leveraging our natural resources for the benefit of waterfowl, other wildlife, producers, and communities.”

“National Sorghum Producers has long championed innovative, sustainable practices that enhance agricultural productivity while preserving our vital natural resources,” says Tim Lust, NSP CEO. “Sorghum, known as The Resource Conserving Crop, serves as a water-sipping alternative to more thirsty crops, making it indispensable in water-stressed regions. This partnership with Ducks Unlimited further solidifies our dedication to foster water-efficient solutions that enhance both crop productivity and the protection of precious water resources.”

“In many regions like the Great Plains, water resources are becoming more finite and presenting challenges to wildlife, agriculture, and the industries they support,” says Billy Gascoigne, DU director of agriculture and strategic partnerships. “The need to leverage resources, expertise, and market innovation is greater now than ever. This partnership looks to do just that.”

“We recognize the importance of proactive water management to maintain sustainable farming landscapes,” says Matt Durler, NSP managing director of climate-smart sorghum. “This collaboration is a commitment to balance water-wise farming with environmental stewardship and ensure communities that rely on agriculture and waterfowl habitats will flourish for generations to come.”

Harvest Prices for Crop Insurance Plunge: What Does It Mean for Farmers?

Wed, 06 Nov 2024 16:01:51 GMT

The Risk Management Agency just released official harvest prices for federal crop insurance, and it’s not good news for farmers.

Harvest price is based on the average price during October. This year, those numbers are well below 2023 and the base prices set in February:

Corn — $4.16 harvest price versus $4.66 base price, a 50¢ drop
Soybeans — $10.03 harvest price versus $11.55 base price, a sharp $1.52 drop
Grain sorghum — $4.17 harvest price versus $4.67 base price, down 50¢
Confectionary sunflowers — down $1.50
Oil sunflowers — dropped $1.20

The drop comes as no surprise to Tony Jesina, senior vice president of insurance, Farm Credit Services of America.

“We’ve seen the trend in play for quite a while, but in October, we did get a little bit of a bump. It could have been a lot worse,” he says. “It’s still bad enough when you think about the price of corn being down 11% from spring and beans roughly 13%. The trend has not been our friend, that’s for sure.”

Lower harvest price levels will trigger some insurance payouts for the 2024 crop, according to Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag Risk Management in Fargo, N.D.

“There’s likely going to be revenue losses in some areas on soybeans. Corn, it’s just going to depend on if you had a lot of rain and drowned out corn,” he says.

With these prices, margins will be even tighter in 2025 and, for some, maybe in the red.

Jesina says farmers need to closely manage their cost of production and safety net.

“You look at the most common policy in place and that policy will not cover your cost of production for 2025,” he says.

Most producers will need to increase their coverage under their underlying policy or add a supplement.

“A lot of producers will look at the Supplemental Coverage Option known, SCO, or the Enhanced Coverage Option, ECO. When you layer ECO and SCO on top of your underlying policy, for most producers that will be enough coverage to provide a safety net that gets close or can actually go above covering their cost of production for 2025,” he explains.

Crop insurance is not an expense to scrimp on, and Jesina recommends paying for higher coverage to help guarantee revenue. In addition, he says crop insurance products are subsidized, and the ECO subsidy went up for the 2025 crop year.

Your Next Read: A Possible Recession Still Hangs Over the Ag Economy, But Positive Shifts Are Starting to Surface

House GOP Farm Bill Provides Big Boost to Reference Prices; What You Need to Know

Fri, 17 May 2024 16:40:04 GMT

The House Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024 introduces significant changes to crop insurance, reference prices, specialty crops, and trade promotion, while also addressing international food aid and foreign farmland ownership. Crop reference prices will see a 10-20% rise across all commodities to combat inflation and rising costs.

There are two key pay limit provisions in House farm bill. The first ends the disparate treatment of pass-through entities . This is removing red tape and allowing farmers to get the same treatment if they are in an LLC as those in general partnerships.

The second is operations that get 75% of their income from farming are eligible for a payment limit of $155,000 (up from $125,000) that is indexed to inflation going forward. This will put the payment limit back at a level (in real dollars) to what Congress approved in 2018.

On AGI, the House bill includes a waiver from the means test for operations that get 75% of their income from farming, but this waiver only applies to disaster programs (LIP, LFP, ELAP, TAP, and NAP), as well as all conservation programs.

There is no new opportunity to add base acres in House farm bill proposals. The Farm, Food, and National Security Act of 2024 provides an opportunity to add new base acres to farms that have no base, or that have been planting in excess of existing base acres. This provision does not modify or impact existing base acres and will be purely additive for those farms that qualify. Additionally, there are no qualifications relative to the demographics or beginning farmer status of the landowner to be eligible for an assignment of new base acres under this provision.

Eligibility for New Base Acres

A farm is eligible for an assignment of base acres under this provision if the average number of acres from 2019 through 2023 that were planted or prevented from being planted to covered commodities and eligible non-covered commodities (not to exceed 15% of the total acres on the farm) exceeds the existing base acres on the farm. If after conducting sign-up, the total number of eligible acres across the country exceeds 30 million acres, the Secretary is required to apply a pro-rata reduction to all farms to reduce the number of eligible acres to equal 30 million.

Eligible Non-Covered Commodities

For the purposes of this provision, and to not penalize producers who may be in a crop rotation that contains certain non-covered commodities, the number of eligible acres may include the number of acres planted or prevented from being planted to non-covered commodities other than trees, bushes, vines, and pasture. The acres of non-covered commodities that can count toward the eligible acres on the farm is limited to not exceed 15% of the total acres on the farm.

Assignment of Covered Commodities

The eligible acres will be assigned to covered commodities using a formula like that utilized for the base reallocation opportunity in the 2014 Farm Bill. The assignment will reflect the ratio of covered commodities planted on the farm from 2019 through 2023.

Trade and International Food Aid

Trade Promotion: Funding for the Market Access Program and Foreign Market Development Program will double.
International Aid: Increased requirements for U.S.-grown aid and additional funding for therapeutic food to combat child malnutrition.

Foreign Farmland Ownership

Reporting: Enhanced reporting requirements for farmland purchases by entities from adversary countries, with penalties for non-compliance. A digital database will track foreign-owned land.

Farm Bill Battles

IRA Funding: Incorporates $13 billion from the Inflation Reduction Act into the farm bill, removing federal mandates on the type of practices that qualify for conservation funding.
Thrifty Food Plan: Limits future updates to prevent SNAP benefit increases or cuts, reallocating funds to strengthen existing nutrition programs. Democrats oppose this measure.
Felon Ban: Removes the lifetime ban on SNAP benefits for those with previous felony drug convictions.
Tribal Nutrition: Makes permanent self-determination projects for the food box distribution program.
Dietary Policy: Updates the federal dietary policy for the first time in two decades, impacting SNAP and school meals.

CCC Authority

Restrictions: Limits the Agriculture secretary’s authority over Commodity Credit Corporation funding, which could prevent presidents from using USDA funds for farm bailouts during trade wars.

House Ag Chairman G.T. Thompson (R-Pa.) told Agri-Talk this morning that he currently has no firm Democratic member commitment but the bill will clear the May 23 markup in the House Ag Committee. He said House floor strategy will be decided once they see the markup vote.

The complete text of the bill is here. An updated title-by-title summary can be found here .

China's Buys of Corn and Sorghum Are Surging Right Now, But Why?

Mon, 04 Mar 2024 20:58:22 GMT

China continues to ramp up its purchases of feed grain around the globe with even more expected in the coming weeks. On Monday, Bloomberg reported China has purchased more than 20 cargoes of feed grain in just the past two weeks, which totals 1.2 million tons of grain.

From corn to sorghum to even barley, China continues to buy feed grains. Last week, trade sources said China was pricing corn out of the PNW; however, no daily sales have been confirmed. Then, this week, trade sources report China is purchased 10 cargoes from Ukraine.

No matter the source of the surge in purchases, one thing is clear: China is stockpiling grain.

“They’re buying a little corn, but they’re mostly buying from Ukraine and buying from Brazil right now,” says Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist for StoneX Group. “When you look at where US corn is priced, it’s about 25 to 30 cents higher price than Brazil corn. But Brazil is starting to switch towards soybeans. So that’s good news for the U.S.”

China is Buying From Ukraine

Suderman points out since China is buying from Ukraine, despite the growing risk in the Red Sea. He also points out StoneX Group estimates China just harvested a large crop, so it’s not like they’re buying due to a lack of grain or feed.

“They are buying a lot of Ukraine corn, the key there is the Red Sea, because all that corn coming to Ukraine goes through the Red Sea or all the way around the southern end of Africa. And so that increases the costs. It’s ironic that China is buying that corn, because they just had a bumper crop, based on our private sources in China, and our people there we believe the crop in China was bigger than even the government says that it was.”

Suderman says that begs the question: why is China even buying all of this grain? He says it’s to build up their reserves, which he says is taking place for nearly every major commodity, including corn, soybeans and even crude oil.

“They are buying corn from their farmers, putting it in reserves to try to prop up the price, and by propping up the price, they’re making it the arbitrage work for importing corn. So, they’re continuing to do that they’re buying grain sorghum for feed as well. They’re buying up commodities building up reserves,” Suderman says.

What About Taiwan?

Chip Flory, who is host of AgriTalk, but also the Farm Journal economist, says the fact China is buying so many different commodities also sparks another question: what is China preparing for?

“When they shift gears and start to accelerate their purchasing, you have to ask the question: ‘Why? Why are they doing it?’ So, if they are accumulating all these commodities, the list that Arlan went through, what are they prepping for? Is Taiwan involved in this? It could be something that we’re going to have to watch very closely,” says Flory.

According to Blue Reef Agri-Marketing’s Chip Nellinger, the recent sell-off in the soybean market was partially tied to the lack of soybeans sales to China.

“It wasn’t that they weren’t buying beans, they’re buying in record amounts of South American beans, so their appetite is as strong or stronger than it ever has been,” says Nellinger. “It’s just right now, in the short-run, they’re not buying beans from us.”

Leaders in Ag: U.S. Grains Council's Ryan LeGrand

Mon, 12 Feb 2024 21:13:54 GMT

Growing up in southern Oklahoma, Ryan LeGrand has a lifelong connection to agriculture. After graduating with a degree in International Business from Oklahoma State, he started a career as a grain trader and exporter. That passion led him to the U.S. Grains Council , first working in the Council’s Mexico office and for the past five years as its president and CEO. His job is to develop relationships and export markets for major grain farmers in the U.S.

Q: How would you describe your leadership style?
A: I’ve never been a micromanager, and I’ve always believed that a company should hire competent people with a positive attitude, give them the tools to succeed and then get out of their way. I follow the philosophy attributed to the co-founder of Southwest Airlines, and that’s hire for attitude then train for skill. If a person is motivated with a positive attitude that can and will help your company succeed.

Q: What is the best advice you’ve ever received?
A: When it comes to leadership, my advice is very simple: be firm but fair. It’s something one of my mentors told me on many occasions. He led with a clear vision of where he wanted to take the company but defaulted to empathy and compassion when it came to dealing with the teams that worked with and for him.

Q: What is the most challenging part of running an international organization?
A: There are a lot of priorities that take precedence over agriculture and national security is understandably at the top of that list. There’s a case to be made that strong trade ties enhance our national security. I think making sure every administration fully understands the importance of ag exports will be a big challenge.

Q: What are your favorite business tools?
A: This is going to sound funny, but the old-fashioned telephone, when it’s used for its original purpose of talking, is my favorite. I’d much prefer a phone call over text messages, and I think it’s easier to come to an understanding through real conversation. My number two business tool is the network sharing, document sharing capability that we have across this organization.

Q: What do you consider success?
A: Success is when we achieve our goals and our objectives, but it’s also when we’ve done that as a team. When everyone in the company feels like they contributed and like they have a voice that’s been heard, then that is success to me.

Q: Advice for people just starting an agricultural career?
A: When it comes to those that are just getting started in their career, you don’t necessarily have to follow your passion. If you have a passion that motivates you more than anything on this earth, then go do that. If not, go do what’s going to make you the most money. Whatever that is may or may not turn into your passion, but hopefully you’re able to establish yourself financially. Exporting grain for 15 years was not really my passion, but it allowed me to become financially stable. That then led to this current role as CEO of the U.S. Grains Council, which is something I’m extremely passionate about.

Meet another leader in ag: R.G. Lamar, CEO of Stuckey’s Corporation and chairman of the Georgia Pecan Commission

Farmer Shocked After Lost iPhone Circles Globe, Returns Home

Mon, 04 Dec 2023 17:24:49 GMT

Abandon hope, all ye who lose a cellphone in an ocean of grain?

When central Oklahoma farmer Kevin Whitney’s iPhone slipped from his pocket and fell beneath 220,000 bushels of grain sorghum bound for parts unknown, he assumed the device was forever gone. Instead, the iPhone took a 20,000-mile roundtrip across the globe, returning nine months later from Japan into the hands of a stunned Whitney.

“Amazing,” he says. “I know farming is a global business, but this was personal and showed me how small our agricultural world is. It became such a cool and unlikely story because there was a whole lot more going on than just a lost phone.”

October Surprise

In the fall of 2013, as combines rolled across grain sorghum (milo) fields in Grady County, Oklahoma, Kevin Whitney was on the receiving end of steady crop loads as manager of the Apache Farmers Co-Op branch in Chickasha, roughly 40 minutes southwest of Oklahoma City.

Bathed in dust and October sunshine, under the tower of a 220,000-bushel concrete elevator, Whitney crouched beside a trailer and tugged at a stubborn hopper door as fresh-cut grain poured across a 10’-long by 5’-wide grate split by cover bars with 4” gaps.

As Whitney worked on the hopper—with an iPhone 5 wedged into a slick, black plastic case inside his unclasped breast pocket—he bent a fraction low and felt the phone shoot from his shirt. In a frozen moment, he watched the phone drop into the grain flow and rocket between the grate bars to the pit below. No lunging, flailing, or scrambling after the device. Game over.

“I was beyond disappointed because it was loaded with photos from my daughter’s wedding, but the phone was done,” says Whitney, who presently runs a cow-calf operation and owns a spraying business, American AG Service. “Nothing to say and nothing to do because there was no retrieval possible. I knew where the phone was and I knew I couldn’t get to it. I gave up right away.”

Out of sight, out of mind. The 4 oz. phone, measuring roughly 5” tall and 2.5” wide, had fallen 3’ below the grate onto a series of conveyor belts, buckets, and legs—finally resting within the massive concrete tombstone, embedded with millions of red- and brown-shaded, spherical grains of milo less than 4 mm in length, each carrying about the same kernel weight as wheat.

However, Whitney’s unwelcome October surprise was about to turn into a July blessing.

Stowaway

Departing the concrete elevator at Apache Farmers Co-Op in Chickasha, the stowaway iPhone 5 was loaded into a grain trailer and trucked to a northeast Oklahoma facility in Inola—part of the Arkansas River navigation system.

Placed on a barge at Inola, Whitney’s iPhone floated down the Arkansas River, changed flows to the Mississippi River, and arrived at its final U.S. destination—Convent, Louisiana, where it was dumped onto a carrier ship bound for Japan.

“Imagine all the loading and unloading that took place to that point, with a lot more to come,” Whitney describes. “It was cushioned inside dry grain, but it still easily could have gotten smashed at so many points.”

Next stop? Panama.

Globetrotter

Inside the belly of a bulk vessel as a tiny speck in a 2-million-bushel load of grain sorghum destined for a feed mill in Japan, Whitney’s iPhone left Louisiana and entered the Gulf of Mexico, slid into the Caribbean Sea, exited through the Panama Canal, chugged across the Pacific Ocean to Japan, and offloaded at a feed mill in Fukushima.

During the screening process, the iPhone was spotted by a vigilant—and caring—mill worker.

“It’s amazing on top of amazing,” Whitney explains. “The guy who found it could have tossed it in the garbage or kept it, but he thought, ‘Somebody across the world lost their cell. I’m gonna try and get it back to him.’”

“It took effort and concern to return my phone,” Whitney continues. “The mill worker went up his chain and then somebody else there went higher up the chain, and it turned into a phone call to their source—all the way in Convent, Louisiana. The folks in Japan then airmailed my phone to Louisiana. That was a lot of people in the agriculture grain trade industry trying to help someone they didn’t even know.”

In July 2014, nine months after accidentally turning his cell into a globetrotter, Whitney was rocked on his heels by a surreal phone call from Convent, Louisiana: “Did you lose a cell phone?”

“Yes, I did—almost a year ago,” answered Whitney.

“Well, I’ve got your phone, responded the caller. “What do you want me to do with it?”

Incredible Age

As the final leg of a near 20,000-mile journey, the iPhone was mailed from a grain facility in Convent to Chickasha—and arrived in superb condition.

“The guy in Convent charged it up when he got it from Japan and found out it belonged to me. He told me it’s not really that unusual for guys to lose cellphones in grain,” Whitney says. “He mailed it to me and I charged it again when I got it and started using it immediately. It was in the exact same condition as the day I lost it and all of the wedding pictures were right there.”

Despite a lifetime in agriculture, Whitney’s view of harvest and grain transport has changed.

“For a lot of people in the grain business, whether you’re a farmer or running a farm-related business, you never think about the grain after it’s out of your hands. Once you unload, you put it out of your mind because you’ve done your part. But my eyes have been opened.”

“Grain in central Oklahoma goes all over the planet and it’s that way in every U.S. state. We’re living in an incredible age of speed—grain grown in your field, moved across the globe, and consumed on the other side of the planet. It really shows how amazing our U.S. grain industry is.”

Sold

In 2014, Whitney’s lost iPhone story went viral, bouncing from local news to nationwide coverage on the Today Show to global reports via international media. However, social media stardom was not Whitney’s cup of tea. “I was done,” he says. “I got to the point where I literally quit answering my phone.”

Where does Whitney carry his smartphone today?

“In my cellphone holster where it’s supposed to go,” he exclaims. “I’ve always had a cellphone holster, but I didn’t use it on the day I lost my iPhone 5.”

And almost a decade after Whitney’s October mishap, where is the slippery iPhone 5?

“In hindsight, I should have kept it for nostalgia, but after several years it got time for an upgrade,” he laughs. “I went to a local phone store and called my wife, Alison: ‘I’m gonna upgrade my cell. Should I keep this old one?’”

“She told me, ‘It’s such a cool story so you’ve got to keep that old phone,’” Whitney recounts, while wearing a wide grin. “But when I told her the store was offering me $400 for it, she said, ‘Sold.’”

For more from Chris Bennett (cbennett@farmjournal.com or 662-592-1106), see:

While America Slept, China Stole the Farm

Priceless Pistol Found After Decades Lost in Farmhouse Attic

Cottonmouth Farmer: The Insane Tale of a Buck-Wild Scheme to Corner the Snake Venom Market

Tractorcade: How an Epic Convoy and Legendary Farmer Army Shook Washington, D.C.

Young Farmer uses YouTube and Video Games to Buy $1.8M Land

Bizarre Mystery of Mummified Coon Dog Solved After 40 Years

High Production Costs Could Weigh on the Ag Economy Through 2024, New Survey of Economists Finds

Wed, 28 Jun 2023 19:15:23 GMT

Stronger cattle prices combined with the recent run-up in crop prices aren’t enough to outweigh concerns about the impact high input prices will have on farmers this year and into 2024. While most economists agree the next 12 months could produce more financial challenges for agriculture, views vary on how much financial pressure producers will see and offer differing opinions on the U.S. crop production picture and commodity/feed prices.

The results are part of the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, a new survey of nearly 50 agricultural economists from across the country. It’s the first survey of its kind, collecting insights from economists who represent both the private and public sectors. The economists represent the ag sector across a wide geography and also have expertise in grains, livestock and policy.

The survey is conducted anonymously to allow the highly respected agricultural economists to speak more openly about their economic and production forecasts since their responses won’t be attributed to the university, company or organization they represent. The Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor is a joint effort between the University of Missouri and Farm Journal . The university conducts the survey, collects and crunches the data while Farm Journal distributes the results.

Main Takeaways from the June Survey

Highlights from the first Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor include:

The perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture is trending lower and is expected to continue to decline over the next 12 months.
Production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and demand headwinds are among the main drivers.
The majority of agricultural economists expect farm income to drift lower, with some expecting levels to land closer to the five-year average in 2024.
High production expenses are the biggest obstacle in 2023.
2023 crop yield estimates vary widely among the economists surveyed.
Economists expect crop prices to drift lower in 2023 and 2024.
Beef cow supplies are forecast to continue to decline this year.

A Current and Future Snapshot of the Agriculture Economy

The monitor shows the perceived financial health of U.S. agriculture has moved slightly lower over the past year, and economists expect that trend to continue over the next 12 months.

The main drivers of the waning outlook include production costs, global competition, geopolitical risks, drought and domestic demand for agricultural commodities.

“I think what’s most surprising is that, on average, those more than 40 economists are in alignment with the more general perception of where agriculture is heading,” says Scott Brown, an agricultural economist with the University of Missouri, who helps author the survey. “What surprised me is the amount of volatility around that average estimate. It just reminds me there’s so many issues at play today, and when trying to predict or suggest the future, even these economists have a wide opinion in terms of where we’re headed in different commodities.”

Falling Net Farm Income

The Monthly Monitor shows all respondents expect farm income to decline from the record level of 2022 for 2023 and 2024. The range of survey responses is what produced the most volatility, with responses varying by as much as $51 billion from the highest to the lowest estimate.

Some economists are projecting farm income levels to return to the 2017-21 average in 2024. The main driver for 2023 forecasts is the expectation for higher production expenses. The biggest factor for the waning outlook in 2024 is the outlook for lower commodity prices.

“It seemed like cattle was the most optimistic commodity out of the mix,” Brown says. “I think there was still some expectation that corn and soybean prices could stay on the higher end, but generally there’s less optimism than coming off the records we would have seen back in 2022. That’s when farm income was a little north of $160 billion, and when you look at some of the forecasts for 2024 in our survey, it’s closer to $120 billion on average. Some are even suggesting farm income levels could fall back to where we were pre-2020, so pre-COVID.”

Wide Range of Yield Estimates

Ahead of USDA’s updated look at planted acres in the June acreage report set to be released Friday, economists don’t see many big changes compared with what farmers intended to plant in March. According to the June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, the average survey result was 92.05 million planted acres for corn, which is up slightly from the 92 million acres reported by USDA’s farmer survey in March. The range included 90.5 million acres on the low end and 93 million acres on the high end.

Economists think farmers planted 87.98 million acres of soybeans this spring, slightly higher than the 87.5 million acres reported in March. The highest estimate was 89 million acres of soybeans, with the lowest estimate of 87 million acres.

In March, USDA reported farmers intended to plant 11.26 million acres of cotton. The survey showed economists think with the weather challenges in areas such as Texas, cotton farmers actually planted 11.24 million acres, with the maximum response of 11.9 million and 10.95 million on the low end.

Brown points out the yield variation largely depends on upcoming weather, but the dry weather is creating a wide range of yield estimates this year. According to respondents in June, the average estimate for yield includes:

Corn: 178.68 bu. per acre versus 181.5 bu. per acre (USDA’s current estimate)
Soybeans: 51.06 bu. per acre versus 52 bu. per acre
Wheat: 44.47 bu. per acre versus 44.9 bu. per acre
Sorghum: 68.17 bu. per acre versus 69.2 bu. per acre
Cotton: 855.18 pounds versus 841 pounds

“I think when you look at both corn and soybean acres, there wasn’t a lot of deviation from the Prospective Plantings report USDA came out with a few months ago, so we didn’t see a big change there,” Brown says. “On the yield side, there are certainly some differences. The average yield estimate, on the corn side from the survey was a little more than 178 bu. per acre, with a downside of 175 bu. Likewise on soybeans, that came in at about 51 bu. per acre. Both corn and soybeans are below where USDA currently sees yields. I will say those are going to change quickly as we look at weather and what’s occurred since the survey would have gone out roughly a week ago now.”

Economists also expect crop prices to decline this year and next; however, there is a wide range in estimates signaling volatility will continue.

The average corn price is estimated to hit $4.99 per bushel for the current crop year and $4.74 for 2024/2025. The high range of the estimate for this year is $6 per bushel, with a low of $4.25 per bushel. Soybeans are also expected to trend lower, with an average estimate of $12.52 per bushel this year. The high came in at $14 per bushel. The low estimate was $10.85 per bushel. The average estimate for 2024/2025 is $11.90 per bushel.

Wheat prices are estimated to average $7.63 per bushel this year, with a low of $7 and a high of $8.49. The average estimate for wheat prices in 2024/2025 is $7.10 per bushel, with a high of $8 and a low of $6.49.

Mixed Outlook on Livestock

The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked economists to provide estimates about beef cow inventory as of July 1, which is a report USDA will release on July 21. Economists who responded expect cow inventory to fall to 30 million head, which represents a decline of 1.2%.

Respondents also see fed cattle prices in 2024 trending to over $181 per hundredweight. But responses also produced high volatility, with one economist even thinking fed cattle prices will average above $195 per hundredweight in 2024.

Most everyone expects a contraction,” Brown says. “With the dry weather we’ve had in cattle country, Oklahoma, Kansas, Nebraska, Missouri, to name a few, I think we will continue to see fewer beef cows when we get that report out in mid-July. There were some who are even calling for larger declines than the nearly 30 million head. It reminds me we’re going to get tighter, and we’re not done talking about record cattle prices if these forecasts hold true.”

Economists are less optimistic about hog prices and milk prices producers will receive this year.

Ahead of the next Hogs and Pigs report from USDA later this week, economists think the breeding hog inventory will be 99.27%, compared to 100.5% one year ago. Economists are more bullish when it comes to exports, but not enough to improve their outlook on hog prices.

“They weren’t as optimistic on cattle or dairy,” says Brown. “When you look at what they were saying for 2024 hog prices, still, the average was below $61. Which if costs stay where they are today, that means red ink continues into 2024. Likewise, the projected all milk price for 2024 is $20.50 in our survey. That probably also makes red ink in 2024.”

The Likelihood of a U.S. Recession

Another major economic indicator for livestock producers is the general economy, as it historically has a direct impact on domestic demand. Of those surveyed, economists expect interest rates to move up 2% over the next six months.

“Although there was a wide range of responses, most economists felt the U.S. economy is not currently in a recession and will not enter one during 2023,” Brown says. “I will point out, though, there appears to be continued uncertainty about the expected general economy health for 2023, given survey responses.”

The majority of economists “somewhat disagree” the U.S. will enter into a recession this year. While at least eight economists say they “somewhat agree” a recession is looming yet this year.

Looking Ahead to July

The June Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor survey is a current snapshot of economists’ views. The survey will be sent to participating economists just days after USDA releases its WASDE report each month. Less than two weeks later, the results will be released.

“It is fairly current, but I’ll just say weather matters a lot, as we talked about, especially with yields. We’ll see how this changes, being able to now come back to the same group and ask what they expect corn and soybean yields to be in another few weeks. We’ll also have the first survey under our belt, and it will be interesting to watch those changes,” Brown says.

Looking to the second survey, Brown says he’s interested in watching changes to the crop-yield side of the equation. Longer-term, he thinks the monthly monitor will reveal bigger trends about the general economic health across all of agriculture and how those forecasts change from month to month.

“I’m really curious to watch [the general economic health] as we get more observations, and see what July looks like relative to June in terms of overall economic health,” he says. “I’m curious to watch as this group of experts continues to digest what’s happening in agriculture.”

How Can The Farm Bill Better Reflect Farmers? House Ag Committee Released A Road Map

Wed, 08 Mar 2023 22:26:00 GMT

The House Ag Committee is set to give an initial outline of budget views and estimates for the 2024 fiscal year. An early look at the report shows the House Ag Committee could push for improvements to the current safety net within Title I of the farm bill and move away from relying on Congress to approve ad hoc disaster aid. The letter also states the current safety net is outdated and doesn’t take into account the rising costs farmers face today.

Just as corn, sorghum, soybean and wheat growers worked to set policy priorities during Commodity Classic, Farm Journal Washington Correspondent Jim Wiesemeyer released an exclusive early look at the House Agriculture Committee’s budget views and estimates for the 2024 fiscal year . He says the panel will hold a business meeting Thursday morning where the panel will go over the changes outlined in the letter.

After reading the initial budget letter from the House Ag Committee, Wiesemeyer called it one of the best he’s seen during his long career of reporting on the business of agriculture.

“The letter presents a clear road map, with lots of transparency, on what is really needed in the new farm bill,” Wiesemeyer says. “Budget panel chairs should take the well-researched policy and funding recommendations to heart in working out a realistic farm bill baseline because without that, the farm bill will not get the reforms it clearly needs to alter Title I and move away from the billions of dollars in ad hoc disaster program payouts. I also applaud what the letter notes is the importance of trade promotion programs and agricultural research — two topics that usually get a lot of farm bill attention in the early rounds of working on the legislation, only to find them short-changed at the end of the process.”

According to Wiesemeyer, the budget letter includes the following key points for ag related programs:

Stresses the importance of funding production agriculture programs with Title I, with a strong focus on the farm safety net.
Outlines efforts to alleviate the need for what the House Ag Committee deems as costly and inefficient emergency ad hoc spending
Focuses on the spike in the cost of goods farm and ranch families in the U.S. are facing today

According to Wiesemeyer, the letter points out the Title I safety net is projected to account for two-tenths of 1% of federal spending, while still supporting an industry that accounted for 43 million jobs, $2.3 trillion in wages, $718 billion in tax revenue, $183 billion in exports, and $7.4 trillion in economic activity in 2022.

“We would challenge any Member of Congress to identify other legislation that can take credit for a similar return on investment of federal support,” the letter states.

The 2024 FY budget letter to be outlined tomorrow, also says, “Due to the ineffectiveness of the existing farm bill safety net, Congress has returned to the cycle of providing unbudgeted ad hoc assistance for both weather and market-related disasters, totaling $93.3 billion over six years. This amount is 150% of the entire Title I 10-year baseline. The assistance has been a godsend for many producers who would not have been able to remain in business otherwise in the wake of a trade war, a once-in-a-century pandemic, or historically devastating weather disasters. However, as mentioned above, despite this infusion of assistance, the farm financial picture is beginning to erode due to repeated production losses and skyrocketing inflation.”

The House Ag panel’s budget views say since current policies were designed in the 2014 farm bill, it uses production data from 2012.

“Today, the combination of spiking input costs and outdated policy has rendered the commodity title ineffective. Consider the four crops that represent the largest acreage in the U.S.: corn, soybeans, wheat and cotton. The forecast season average farm price of each commodity would need to fall by roughly 23%, 30%, 21% and 52%, respectively, in 2023 to trigger any support under current law. If left unchanged, while production costs remain sticky, many producers would be bankrupt before Title I support provides assistance.”

House Ag Committee Echoes Commodity Organization’s Policy Priorities

The House Ag Committee’s point regarding the current farm fill’s safety net flaws is also a message Steve Censky, CEO of ASA, expressed to Farm Journal just ahead of Commodity Classic this week.

“We’ve been leading an effort with other commodity and farm groups, to the budget message to the budget committees, letting them know that the agriculture committees are going to need more resources. We’re hopeful that they can get more resources, but we’re also realistic that it’s going to be tough to try to get those additional resources,” says Steve Censky, CEO of ASA.

Censky expresses a need for Congress to adequately fund the 2023 farm bill, but also do so on time, as he says ASA recognizes the current need among growers to see additional resources for things beyond weather events.

“We want to No. 1, fully protect crop insurance, because that’s soybean farmers’ most important risk management tool, but we also want to improve the safety net for soybeans,” Censky says. “Even when we had the China trade war, when U.S. soybean exports plummeted, the safety net, ARC or the PLC programs, did not kick in. Soybean farmers did not receive any payment, and they had to rely on ad hoc payment.”

Tim Lust, CEO of NSP, is also encouraging legislators to strengthen the safety net within Title I of the farm bill. He points out budget sheets today show inflation and higher costs are overpowering commodity prices, but it’s also drought eating into outlooks for farmers. He says both are just two examples of why Title I isn’t a strong safety net for farmers.

“When we look at the number of dollars that have been spent on ad hoc disaster over the last six years, there are ways, without spending the total amount of dollars that we have spent over the last six years, that we could do some things in Title 1 to really provide some extra dollars there to provide a safety net and to get us out of this situation of an every-year disaster,” Lust says.

NSP has been pushing for the two Agriculture Committees to add funding and improve the safety net within the new farm bill, without taking money away from other essential programs such as crop insurance.

“Whether that is a disaster assistance, whether that’s an increase in reference price, there are three or four different ways that you could provide that safety net,” Lust says. “At this point, we’re not really at this point saying exactly what that is, other than to say, it is needed.”

Both ASA and NSP’s concerns seem to be addressed in the initial 2024 budget letter. According to Wiesemeyer, the budget letter says yearly ad hoc payments are not the fiscally responsible way to support producers.

“One of the most difficult aspects of production agriculture is the incredible amount of uncertainty farmers and ranchers face. One of the most important principles of a farm bill is its intention to provide a modicum of predictability to this very risky industry,” the letter states. “With ad hoc assistance, producers and their lenders have no idea what assistance will be available, or which programs they will be eligible for when a disaster strikes. They don’t know if or when policymakers will decide to step in, with action oftentimes occurring a year or more after a loss. Additionally, each time ad hoc assistance is authorized, either Congress or the administration changes the parameters of which losses are eligible. As a result, the committee believes this inefficient and ever-changing delivery of assistance costs the taxpayer substantially more than what would have been needed if the support were incorporated into the existing farm safety net.”

The letter also outlines nearly $20 billion for new funding for conservation programs, which was also part of last year’s focus by the House Ag Committee.

“As for food and nutrition programs, the letter attempts to find a middle ground. It remains to be seen whether any changes in this area will be quickly blasted as unworkable by some who want significant increases in funding and little to no reform,” Wiesemeyer says.

House Ag Committee Questions CBO’s Farm Bill Score

In February, the Congress Congressional Budget Office (CBO) released its analysis and projections for the federal debt of the U.S., while also providing a CBO score of the current farm bill. the 10-year baseline for mandatory programs in the farm bill, including crop insurance, showed less money for Title I. That estimate also sent a message to farm groups.

“As we see the baseline come out in the CBO score, right now there’s less money for Title I, meaning that we’re going to have to figure out how to divide that pie even thinner,” Chandler Goule, CEO of National Association of Wheat Growers (NAWG), said ahead of Commodity Classic.

However, the budget letter from the House Ag Committee called out CBO’s cost estimate, stating it varied from other analysis available today.

“When compared to the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) and the Food and Agriculture Policy Research Institute (FAPRI), subject matter experts in predicting macroeconomic trends in commodity prices, CBO shows a price series that, across major covered commodities, is 10% to 15% lower than FAPRI and USDA projections. As a consequence, these assumptions may result in modifications or improvements to existing programs scoring more costly than they would if CBO’s price assumptions were more in line with USDA and FAPRI.”

Push for Permanent Disaster Aid? Sorghum Producers Seek to Secure Stronger Safety Net in the Farm Bill

Wed, 08 Mar 2023 18:22:05 GMT

Farmers in the Southern Plains are looking at another year of drought. With winter dryland crops dwindling by the day, area farmers have growing concerns about having enough moisture to plant their 2023 spring crops. Now, groups like National Sorghum Producers (NSP) are pushing for either permanent disaster assistance or other changes to strengthen the safety net within Title 1 of the Farm Bill.

As growers gather at the 2023 Commodity Classic this week, it’s a story of moisture extremes for farmers across the U.S. Record snowfall continues to call in California, improving the water outlook for irrigation this year. The upper Midwest has also been hammered by continuous snowfall this winter.

It’s a stark contrast from the Plains. Already faced with the most severe levels of drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor, NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook paints a dreary picture with forecasts for drought persisting through spring. However, it’s the concern longer-term that’s also driving NSP’s priorities within the 2023 Farm Bill. Tim Lust, CEO of NSP, wants to see legislators strengthen the safety net within Title One of the Farm Bill, including more permanent disaster aid.

“When we look at the number of dollars that have been spent an ad hoc disaster over the last six years, there are ways, without spending the total amount of dollars that we have spent over the last six years, that we could do some things in Title 1 to really provide some extra dollars there to provide a safety net and to get us out of this situation of an every year disaster,” says Lust.

Lust says as the Farm Bill sits today, reference prices don’t cover cost of production increases that farmers across the country have seen the past two years. He says that’s further proof there’s not an adequate safety net in place today.

“As always, there are caveats about how that’s done,” says Lust. “It can’t impact crop insurance negatively, and there are some of those cornerstones that certainly are not negotiable, but the goal is how do we get that safety net for our growers going forward.”

NSP is pushing for the two Agriculture Committees to find more funding for an improved safety net within the new Farm Bill, but Lust says NSP isn’t recommending to Congress how they should craft those programs just yet.

“Whether that is a disaster assistance, whether that’s an increase in reference price, there are three or four different ways that you could provide that safety net,” says Lust. “At this point, we’re not really at this point saying exactly what that is, other than to say, it is needed.”

Issues with 2022 Ad Hoc Disaster Relief

Sorghum producers have plenty of fuel to back his push for an improved safety net for farmers. Last year, sorghum producers saw the worst yields since 1960. Farmers aren’t only revising some of their acreage plans this year due to the moisture situation in the Plains, they’re also still trying to financially recover from the scars of last year’s drought.

“Obviously, we were very happy to see legislation in the December bill that provided assistance for 2022,” he says. “One of the things that we have certainly been talking about is how that is implemented, and what that looks like. The ERP 1 model that was used for ‘20 and ’21 worked very well. Our board and leadership has grave concerns about the ERP Phase 2 methodology and what that looks like, and so certainly a lot of concerns over how exactly the ’22 disaster is implemented.”

Lust and sorghum farmers aren’t alone in their concerns over how those Emergency Relief Program Phase 2 payments. The program is ad hoc and distributes disaster aid for losses from weather events like drought. Changes for Phase 2 require farmers to submit their tax information and the payment is capped at $2,000. Farmers are reluctant to hand over such personal financial information over to the government for a payment that doesn’t begin to cover the 2022 financial losses in areas that need it most.

A group of Senators sent a letter to U.S. Agriculture Secretary Tom Vilsack last week and voiced deep concerns about ERP 2. Nineteen GOP members of both the House and Senate urge USDA to reconsider the methodology used for ERP Phase 2. The legislators say the process is extreme and the requirement for farmers to hand over their personal tax records shouldn’t be a requirement, as the information doesn’t necessarily correlate to crop losses by crop year, which they claim makes Phase 2 less precise.

Sorghum as the Ideal Crop for Climate Solutions

There’s an expectation for farmers to possibly plant more sorghum acres in the drought areas this year. Weather is a gamble, but as farmers try to find ways to still grow a crop, sorghum is an attractive option since it requires less water compared to other row crops like corn.

Lust says sorghum’s hardiness also provides an opportunity to answer USDA’s call for more climate-smart agriculture practices across the country. Lust and sorghum farmers know it’s a crop that doesn’t require as much water, but now they dig into the data of not only the inputs of sorghum, but also the valuable outputs of a grain that can be used for feed and food.

“We were blessed to be one of the groups that was announced as a potential awardee,” says Lust. “We are not through that contract process yet, so it’s not final, but working almost daily with USDA to finalize that contract process.”

In total, USDA is in the process of finalizing $3 billion worth of climate-smart commodities grants . The recipients are a combination of both public and private groups, all working toward a common goal.

“In our case, it’s working with our growers, looking at climate-smart practices, and looking at how those transform into markets,” explains Lust. “Whether those be our biofuel markets, or whether those be some of our food markets, it’s about how we look at that being monetized and what those future market opportunities could be.”

Lust says that’s all supported by collecting the data from all that research, which starts at the farm level.

“Obviously, there is a significant data collection component to this, and really gives our leadership, our members, and our producers in general, the opportunity to document and learn a lot about our crop and what really is happening on the ground,” says Lust. “Certainly, we’ve done some small-scale projects with universities, we’ve done a few individual farms, but we’ve never done anything this broad scale.”

Once the details of the grant are finalized with USDA, Lust says NSP will immediately get to work, uncovering even more reasons why sorghum is a sustainable solution for the call to bring more climate-smart practices and products to the market.

And today, Lust points out sorghum is already playing a more vital role in U.S. food programs, showing just how versatile sorghum truly is.

“One of the things that we’ve certainly worked on and prioritized the last several years is adding sorghum into the USDA feeding programs,” he says. “We’re excited to have sorghum approved to be a part of those programs and a lot of ongoing work, particularly in the breakfast side, about how whole grain sorghum moves into the breakfast side of school breakfast and school lunch programs. So, we’re excited about what some of those opportunities are and with many of the health attributes, and wholegrain attributes, that sorghum checks the box on.”

Related Stories:

Farmers in the Plains Can’t Escape Growing Financial Scars From the Drought

ASA CEO: Renewable Diesel Could Drive a New Era for Soybean Demand, But EPA Needs to Rethink the RFS

The Cost of a Farm Bill: 2023 Row Crop Priorities

Commodity Programs Might See a 12% Cut in the Proposed $1 Trillion Farm Bill

Farmers in the Plains Can't Escape Growing Financial Scars From the Drought

Fri, 03 Mar 2023 20:05:30 GMT

The most recent drought monitor paints an improved picture for California and parts of the West, but as drought creates a dire situation for farmers in the Southern Plains, National Sorghum Producers is not only concerned about the financial outlook for 2023, but how disaster aid payments will be dispersed for last year’s crops.

More than half of Kansas is in extreme to exceptional drought, the two most extreme drought conditions displayed on the weekly drought monitor. More than half of Oklahoma is experiencing severe drought. And in Texas, all but the far eastern portion of the state, as well as the western tip of Texas, is seeing some level of dryness, with the worst parked over the Panhandle and a pocket in the south central part of the state.

The drought was already bad, but severe weather this week caused conditions to worsen. Farmers in the Southern Plains are still trying to assess damage caused by the high winds earlier this week. Some areas of Texas saw hurricane-force winds top 100 miles per hour.

NOAA’s seasonal drought outlook paints a dreary picture for parts of the Plains. The shades of brown indicate where NOAA thinks drought will persist throughout spring, and if that outlook comes to fruition, the area of the U.S. that relies heavily on wheat and sorghum, will see drought eat into crop yields once again.

Issues with ERP Phase 2 Payments and Process

National Sorghum Producers CEO Tim Lust says growers are still trying to recover from last year, as sorghum producers saw the worst yields since 1960. In fact, Lust says the U.S. exported more sorghum in 2021 than the entire country produced in 2022, which is a sign of just how severe of an impact the drought had on last year’s crop.

Now, Lust is severely concerned about sorghum producers’ financial health. He says not only are farmers already revising their spring cropping plans, they’re facing high input costs after a year of low income due to a poor crop. And with continued drought, National Sorghum Producers (NSP) is concerned how the 2022 disaster aid money through Emergency Relief Program Phase 2 (ERP 2) is currently being dispersed.

“Obviously, we were very happy to see legislation in the December bill that provided assistance for 2022,” says Lust. “One of the things that we have certainly been talking about is how that is implemented and what that looks like. The ERP 1 model that was used for 2020 and 2021 worked very well. Our board and leadership both have grave concerns about the ERP 2 methodology and what that looks like. And so certainly a lot of concerns over how exactly the ’22 disaster is implemented.”

Paul Neiffer, a farm CPA, says one issue with the changes to Phase 2 of the program is it’s so complex. Phase 1 came with few farmer complaints, but Phase 2 is a different story. Not only does ERP Phase 2 come with a maximum $2,000 payment, it requires farmers to produce their tax records to qualify for the relief.

Neiffer says the calculation of the payment amount can be very complicated, but says it’s based on the following:

Taking the producer’s benchmark revenue and multiply it by a factor of 70%, then subtract
The producer’s disaster year benchmark revenue, then subtract
Any Phase 1 payments received for the applicable disaster year, then subtract
Net CFAP, net WHIP+, net 2020 Quality Loss Adjustment payments, if the calculation is for the 2020 disaster year.

Disaster Aid in the Next Farm Bill?

Beyond ERP 2, another focus is the Farm Bill. Lust says with the amount of ad hoc disaster aid that’s been allocated the past six years, he thinks there are ways to create a better safety net within Title One of the Farm Bill that includes disaster aid, without negatively impacting crop insurance.

But beyond legislation, Lust says moisture and some relief from Mother Nature would go a long way in changing the trajectory- and outlook- for the 2023 crop.

“It needs to rain,” says Lust. “We’re already into March of 2023, and we’re looking at another crop already going in the ground in South Texas. Planting is also happening all the way up into Central Texas,” says Lust. “And so, hopefully, we have some indications of a weather pattern break. We remain hopeful, I think in agriculture, and in the sorghum belt recently, you have to remain hopeful, but certainly a challenging couple of years and challenging for a lot of these areas in the sorghum belt today.”

Lust says there are also indications farmers in the drought-stricken areas may switch their planting plans, and go toward more sorghum. With the possibility of additional acres, he’s hopeful the weather pattern starts to change and U.S. sorghum farmers can see improved yields this year.

Related Stories:

‘It Looks Like a War Zone': Texas Farmer Describes Wheat Crop Now Ravaged by Sunday’s Derecho and Dust Storm

We Have a Fact Sheet on Phase 2 of ERP

For the Love of Farming and the Land In Historic Virginia

Thu, 26 Jan 2023 17:48:16 GMT

Finalists for the Top Producer of the Year award represent the best in the business of farming, specifically entrepreneurial originality; financial and business progress; and industry and community leadership. This is not an award about size or scope. Instead, it focuses on professionalism, sophistication and innovation. Congratulations to Engel Family Farms , a 2023 Top Producer of the Year award finalist. The Engel family was recognized at a ceremony held Feb. 24 during Top Producer Summit in Nashville.

The short drive from home to the office gives first-generation farmer Kevin Engel just enough time to start his day.

“I talk to the Lord on the way here every morning,” he says. “I give thanks for a lot of stuff and put in a few requests too.”

Upon arrival the hustle begins. The Hanover, Va.-based operation stretches across 23,000 acres and grows corn, soybeans, milo, rapeseed and wheat with a focus on producing high-quality grain for premium prices. The operation works with 200-plus landlords in 19 counties in Virginia and three counties in North Carolina.

“Growing, harvesting and trucking to mills feeding poultry, pork and even people is no easy task,” Engel says. “We don’t hunt. We don’t fish. We farm. Seven days a week most of the time. Almost year round.”

It’s a work ethic he learned from his mentor, his father, Carol, who moved to Virginia from Illinois to be a farm manager. His father’s passion has bled across generations. Watching his father live and breathe farming, Engel developed his own interests in the business.

“I don’t know if it’s a genetic thing or not, but I think it might be because I’m the same way. You know, people ask me what I do for a hobby, and I say farm because I love it,” Engel says.

Today, his family loves farming as well. All three of his kids work in the operation.

Chris runs logistics, managing trucks, deliveries, farm crews and everything in between.

“When it’s harvest, I ask Chris, ‘Where do you want me to go today? Where do you need me today?’ I don’t go until Chris says this is what I’m going to do today,” Engel says.

Casey handles the technology and precision side of the operation.

“Technology changes every day in agriculture. It can get rather overwhelming, so somebody has to stay on top of it. That’s Casey’s job,” Engel says.

Daughter Savannah keeps the office, partnerships and paperwork in line.

“I’m so grateful to have them because I wouldn’t want to do it without them,” he says.

Together, Engel Family Farms delivers grain to some of the biggest agribusinesses on the East coast, including Perdue, Tyson, Smithfield and Byrd Mills.

“Some farmers have a tendency to think they are the customer when they’re buying equipment, fertilizer and seed. Then when they sell their grain, they think they’re the customer,” Engel says. “In my opinion, you can’t be the customer coming and going. Our customers are the grain buyers.”

A Steward of the Land

Close ties to their customers and proximity to Chesapeake Bay is why they planted some 16,000 acres of cover crops this year via airplane. Preserving the land and its rich history is important.

A house on one of the farms the family rents in Henrico county has cannonballs lodged in the side of it from the war. When Engel started farming, one of the first pieces of land he rented was part of the farm that Secretariat, a American Triple Crown winner, was born and raised.

A hard-charging horse with a big heart fits well among the Engels as they pursue each day. A farm where everyone is family.

“When you can get your people to say they enjoy what they’re doing, they’ve got to feel like family,” Engel says. “I want that culture to continue.”

A culture of hard work, respect and pure joy from farming.

“God’s promised us all increase if we work hard and do our part. Boy, He’s certainly fulfilled His promise to me and my family,” Engel says.

Congratulations to Kevin Engel and the Engel family, a finalist for the 2023 Top Producer of the year.

Get to know the other 2023 Top Producer award winners:

Silent Shade Planting Company, Top Producer of the Year

MoDak Dairy, Top Producer of the Year finalist

Marcia Ruff, Executive Women in Agriculture Trailblazer Award

Trey Wasserburger, Tomorrow’s Top Producer Horizon Award

This Researcher Looks to Uncover Renewable Diesel Source in Unique Place

Wed, 28 Sep 2022 19:13:13 GMT

Step into greenhouses at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln (ULN), and you’ll discover research taking root to answer a growing global need for more oil–from jet fuel, to heavy equipment, as well as food products and industrial needs.

The demand for oil continues to ramp up as biomass based diesel, which includes renewable diesel , is fueled by the focus on finding cleaner burning fuels. Seeing that need is exactly what one UNL researcher made the focus of his latest research .

“Our research is focused on making more oil and better oil,” says Edgar Cahoon, professor of biochemistry and also director of the center for plant science innovation at UNL. “We’re trying to address the need for the for more oil, there’s a world shortage of vegetable oils, but also tried to make higher value oils for producers.”

Department of Energy Shows Interest in UNL Research

The need is so great, Cahoon’s research just received a $12.8 million grant from the Department of Energy over the next five years.

Cahoon says he’s part of a group of a researching team, led by UNL, who is using biotechnology tools to improve crops, unlocking the full potential of two oilseeds, but then those findings will be applied to crops not known for producing oil.

“We’re doing that both in traditional oilseed crops like soybean, but also trying to make more oil and vegetative or biomass crops like sorghum,” he adds.

Uncovering What Genes Produce the Oil

So, exactly what are the researchers trying to uncover? Cahoon says his research is out to find what makes the oilseeds oil-producing machines.

“This idea that we’re going to be engineering, vegetable oil production and the leaves of stems, leaves and stems of sorghum is kind of a new idea. And it’s really both a scientific challenge and at some point, will be a bio processing challenge,” says Cahoon.

Through biotechnology, Cahoon and the team are working to introduce genes that increase the genetic diversity of the plant, and ultimately, allow the crops to produce higher levels of oil.

“We want to add more value to the these biomass crops like sorghum by engineering pathways to make oils, not in the seeds, but in the the leaves and the stem of the crop to add more value. In the bio processing of sorghum, not only do we get the biomass, but we can get the vegetable oil,” Cahoon explains.

It’s not just traditional oil seed crops such as soybeans being explored here in this greenhouse, but also crops that don’t traditionally aren’t crushed for oil.

“We’re working with the biomass crops, they don’t traditionally make vegetable oils, so they they’re used for things like biofuels,” Cahoon says.

The Push for More Oil to Fuel Demand

The research is being driven by a growing hunger worldwide for more oils, and one that doesn’t seem to be on pace to slow down anytime soon.

The growing need for oil that can be turned into renewable diesel and sustainable aviation fuel is an industry trend that started making waves just over a year ago. For more than a year, S&P Global Commodity Insights has been digging into the need for more oil. Their current forecast shows how that demand is expected to continue to grow, and considering a large portion of these products are already used for food and industrial purposes, analysts say more supply will be needed to meet that demand.

Some of that supply could come from new feedstock supplies like camelina, another crop UNL is currently researching.

“We also work on non-food oil crops,” says Cahoon. “One of them is camelina, we think that’s an alternative especially for maybe more marginal dry land applications. And as a cover crop for rotations with crops like soybean.”

Cahoon says vegetable oils are the most energy dense molecules produced on the planet, which is why they are an attractive option for the quest to find more oil to supply renewable fuels and bioproducts.

“They have the functionality that you need for the food applications, but they also have a lot of energy stored within the molecules that can be broken apart and used for diesel applications for jet fuel applications,” he adds.

UNL’s Focus on Biotechnology

Cahoon says the research is taking root at UNL for one major reason: the University’s continued investment and focus on biotechnology, which is a vital tool in meeting the exploding demand.

“We’re really fortunate at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln because we have some of the best facilities in the public sector for crop biotechnology,” he says.

The living laboratory is rooted in understanding farmers’ needs to create value-added opportunities, even beyond traditional uses of food and biofuels. Cahoon says the research at UNL facilities today are aimed at not only understanding the enzymes that could allow different crops to generate oil, to producing soybean plants that even feature fish oils, it’s all about meeting a growing demand.

U.S. Grain Ships Change Direction Mid-Voyage After China Tariffs

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:57:09 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- At least two ships loaded with sorghum have changed course while sailing across the Indian Ocean after China imposed a hefty tariff on U.S. supplies this week

The N Bonanza and RB Eden were loaded with sorghum at the port of Corpus Christi, Texas. Both departed mid-March, destined for Shanghai, according to Rosie Collin, director of community relations for the port authority.

When China announced the 179 percent tariff on April 17, they both altered course, vessel data tracked by Bloomberg show. The RB Eden completed a U-turn and is now sailing southwest in the Indian Ocean, while the N Bonanza appeared to head away from Asia.

It’s unclear where the ships are headed or if their destinations have changed. They were both loaded at Archer-Daniels-Midland Co.’s terminal, according to the port. Jackie Anderson, a spokeswoman for the Chicago-based company, declined to comment on the vessels, but she did say that ADM is “very disappointed” about China’s decision to impose the tariffs and is analyzing their impact.

At least 10 other vessels have also been loaded from the U.S. with sorghum destined for China in the past month, a U.S. Department of Agriculture website shows.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.

WASDE: Corn Stocks Up, Soybeans Exports Drop

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:38:31 GMT

Corn

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. corn outlook is for larger production, increased food, seed, and industrial use (FSI), lower feed and residual use, and greater stocks. Corn production is estimated at 14.604 billion bushels, up 26 million from last month as an increase in yield to a record 176.6 bushels per acre is partially offset by a 0.4-millionacre reduction in harvested area. Among the major producing states, yields are estimated to be record high in Illinois, Minnesota, and Ohio. FSI is raised 10 million bushels, reflecting an estimated amount of corn used for glucose and dextrose during September-November that was above expectations. Feed and residual use is down 25 million bushels to 5,550 million based on indicated disappearance during September-November as reflected by the December 1 stocks. With supply rising and use falling, corn stocks are up 40 million bushels from last month. The season-average corn price received by producers is projected at $3.25 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint based on observed prices to date.

Global coarse grain production for 2017/18 is forecast 0.3 million tons higher to 1,324.2 million. This month’s 2017/18 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production and consumption and greater trade relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast lower with reductions for Russia, Vietnam and the Philippines more than offsetting an increase for Pakistan. Russia’s corn production is down based on harvest results to date. Vietnam corn production is reduced as the impact of heavy rain during the growing season in the northern production area was worse than previously expected. Barley production is down as a reduction for Russia more than offsets an increase for Argentina.

Major global trade changes for 2017/18 include lower corn exports for Russia, partially offset by an increase for Thailand. Brazil’s 2016/17 corn exports are reduced based on observed shipments to date for the local marketing year that started in March 2017. Imports for 2017/18 are lowered for Iran but increased for Vietnam and the Philippines. Foreign corn ending stocks are higher than last month, mostly reflecting increases for Brazil and Pakistan. Global corn stocks, at 206.6 million, are up 2.5 million from last month.

Soybeans

U.S. oilseed production for 2017/18 is estimated at 131.3 million tons, down 0.9 million from last month. Smaller soybean, peanut, and cottonseed crops are partly offset by increases for canola and sunflowerseed. Soybean production is estimated at 4,392 million bushels, down 33 million on lower yields. Harvested area is estimated at 89.5 million acres, up fractionally from the previous forecast. Yield is estimated at 49.1 bushels per acre, down 0.4 bushels, led by reductions for Kansas, North Dakota, and South Dakota. The soybean crush forecast is raised 10 million bushels to 1,950 million. Soybean meal production is unchanged as the higher crush is offset by a lower extraction rate. Soybean exports are reduced 65 million bushels to 2,160 million, reflecting lagging sales commitments through December and increased competition with higher soybean production and export forecasts for Brazil. Ending stocks are projected at 470 million bushels, up 25 million from the previous forecast.

The 2017/18 U.S. season-average farm price for soybeans is projected at $8.80 to $9.80 per bushel, unchanged at the midpoint. The soybean oil price forecast of 32 to 35 cents per pound is lowered 1 cent at the midpoint. The soybean meal price forecast is unchanged at $295 to $335 per short ton.

Global oilseed production is projected at 580.1 million tons, up 0.5 million. Soybean production is raised 0.1 million tons to 348.6 million on gains for Brazil and the EU that are partly offset by lower production for Argentina and the United States. The Brazil soybean crop is increased 2 million tons to 110 million reflecting higher yield estimates in recent government reports. Soybean production for Argentina is reduced 1 million tons to 56 million on lower area planted to date, particularly in northern Argentina. Other changes include higher rapeseed production for Ukraine and lower sunflowerseed production for Argentina.

Global oilseed trade for 2017/18 is projected at 176.0 million tons, down 0.4 million from last month. Lower U.S. soybean and Australian rapeseed shipments are partly offset by increased soybean exports for Brazil and rapeseed for Ukraine. Global oilseed ending stocks are projected at 111.2 million tons, up 0.4 million mainly on higher soybean stocks for Brazil and the United States and higher rapeseed stocks for Australia. Partly offsetting are lower soybean stocks for Argentina and sunflowerseed stocks for the EU.

Wheat

Projected 2017/18 U.S. wheat ending stocks are raised 29 million bushels on increased supplies and decreased use. Seed use is lowered 4 million bushels on the winter wheat planted area released today in the NASS Winter Wheat and Canola Seedings report. Wheat feed and residual use for 2017/18 is lowered 20 million bushels and reflects disappearance for June - November as indicated by the December 1 and revised September 1 stocks released in the NASS Grain Stocks report. All wheat exports are unchanged at 975 million bushels; however, a 10 million bushel decrease in Hard Red Spring exports is offset by 5-million-bushel increases each for Soft Red Winter and White wheat. Total supplies are raised 5 million bushels on higher imports while production and the season-average farm price are unchanged.

Global wheat supplies for 2017/18 are lowered 0.8 million tons on reduced beginning stocks, more than offsetting increased production. World beginning stocks are lowered 2.6 million tons mostly on a large 2016/17 production cut for Australia, reflecting updated Australia Bureau of Statistics data. World production for 2017/18 is raised 1.8 million tons led by a 2.0-million-ton increase for Russia and a 0.8-million-ton increased for Pakistan. Partially offsetting is a 0.9-million-ton reduction for the EU. All these production changes reflect updated government data. Global exports are lowered 1.3 million tons led by reductions for Australia and the EU that reflect decreased supplies and increase market competition. Russian exports, in contrast, are raised 1.5 million tons to a record 35.0 million on increased supplies and competitive prices. Global use for 2017/18 is lowered fractionally and ending stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 268.0 million, which remain record large.

Meat, Eggs and Dairy

The estimate of 2017 total red meat and poultry production is reduced from last month. Based on preliminary data, beef and turkey production estimates are lowered, more than offsetting higher pork and broiler production. The egg production estimate is raised modestly on late-2017 production data. For 2018, the total red meat and poultry production forecast is raised as higher expected pork, beef, and broiler production offsets lower turkey production. The 2018 beef production forecast is raised as higher cattle placements in late 2017 are expected to result in higher fed cattle marketings and slaughter in the first half of 2018. Average carcass weights are also expected to be heavier. USDA will release its semi-annual Cattle report on January 31, providing estimates of heifers held for breeding and an insight into the number of feeder cattle available for placement during 2018. The pork production forecast for 2018 is raised. USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report estimated the September-November pig crop was 3 percent above 2016 which supports a higher first half production forecast. The report also indicated producers expect to expand farrowings about 3 percent in the first half of the year which, coupled with continued gains in pigs per litter, supports higher second-half production. Forecast broiler production is raised for 2018 on favorable returns. Turkey production is reduced based on continued weak demand. The egg production forecast is raised slightly.

Beef imports are increased for 2017 on increased shipments from Oceania. No change is made to exports. Pork exports for 2017 are raised reflecting the pace of trade to date but no change is made to pork imports. Broiler imports and exports are raised for 2017, reflecting recent trade data. For 2018, livestock, broiler, and egg trade forecasts remain unchanged from last month.

Livestock and poultry price estimates for 2017 are adjusted to reflect December price data. For 2018, the cattle price is raised, reflecting early-year price strength. The first-quarter 2018 hog price forecast is raised, reflecting recent price strength and firm demand. First and second quarter broiler and egg price forecasts are raised as well on recent price strength and continued strong demand. Turkey price forecasts for 2018 are lowered on recent price movements and continued weakness in demand.

The milk production estimate for 2017 is reduced on recent data. For 2018, the milk production estimate is reduced on slower anticipated growth in the dairy cow herd combined with continued slow growth in milk per cow. Fat basis imports for 2017 are reduced on slower butter imports, but exports are raised on solid global demand for U.S. butter and other dairy products. Skim-solids basis imports are reduced modestly while exports are raised on strong demand for skim milk powder and several other products. For 2018, the fat basis import forecast is reduced on slowing demand for butter products, while the export forecast is raised on expected robust foreign demand for U.S. fat-containing products. On a skim-solids basis, the 2018 import forecast is reduced on weak demand for U.S. milk protein concentrates. The 2018 skim-solids basis export forecast is raised reflecting stronger demand for a number of products.

Dairy product prices for 2017 are adjusted for December data. For 2018, all dairy product prices are reduced on slowing domestic demand and global competition. The Class III and Class IV price forecasts for 2018 are reduced on lower product prices. The all milk price is lowered to $15.80 to $16.60 per cwt for 2018.

Sorghum

Sorghum production for 2017/18 is estimated 8 million bushels higher as an increase in yield to 72.1 bushels per acre more than offsets a marginal reduction in harvested area. Grain sorghum prices are forecast at $3.15 per bushel, up 5 cents at the midpoint.

Rice

U.S. 2017/18 all rice production is 178.2 million cwt, down fractionally from the previous estimate and down 20 percent from last year. The all rice average yield is estimated at 7,507 pounds per acre, up 46 pounds from the prior estimate. Long-grain production is raised to 127.9 million cwt and medium- and short-grain production is lowered to 50.4 million. All rice domestic and residual usage is increased by 5.0 million cwt to 120.0 million on higher-than-expected usage for August-November as implied by the NASS Rice Stocks report. Projected U.S. all rice exports are reduced by 3.0 million cwt to 100.0 million, all for long-grain on slower-than-expected exports to Western Hemisphere markets. Projected 2017/18 all rice ending stocks are reduced 1.8 million cwt to 29.2 million, the lowest level since 2003/04. The projected 2017/18 season-average farm price for all rice is reduced 20 cents at both ends of the range to $12.10 to $13.10 per cwt, primarily due to lower-than-expected long-grain prices reported to date by NASS.

Global 2017/18 rice supplies are increased by 1.3 million tons to 622.8 million, primarily on larger crops for the Philippines and Pakistan. Philippine rice production is projected at a record 12.0 million tons, mainly on larger harvested area, also a record. World 2017/18 consumption increases 1.0 million tons to 481.8 million on higher expected usage in China, Ecuador, Nigeria, Vietnam, and the United States. Global 2017/18 trade is raised to 45.8 million tons on higher exports by China and India more than offsetting lower U.S exports. Trade is slightly below the 2016/17 record of 46.0 million tons. World ending stocks are projected fractionally higher to 141.1 million tons for 2017/18 and are at the highest level since 2000/01 with China holding over 66 percent of total stocks.

Cotton

This month’s 2017/18 U.S. cotton forecasts include slightly lower production and ending stocks. Production is reduced 177,000 bales due to small declines in regions outside the Delta. Ending stocks are reduced 100,000 bales, while domestic mill use and exports are unchanged. The forecast for the marketing year average price received by producers is raised 3 cents per pound, to a midpoint of 69 cents.

Offsetting changes in foreign production and consumption characterize the global 2017/18 cotton forecasts this month. Global production is raised 1.0 million bales as a 1.4-million bale increase for China is only partly offset by small decreases in India, the United States, and Australia. Global consumption is raised 1.2 million bales largely due to a 1.0-million-bale increase for China. World consumption is forecast to grow at a 5.2 percent annual rate in 2017/18, more than double its long-run level. Projected world ending stocks are changed slightly this month, down 200,000 bales from December, but at 87.8 million bales are still forecast marginally higher than the year before

Sugar

U.S. sugar supply for 2017/18 is increased by 72,353 short tons, raw value (STRV), mainly due to increases in expected cane sugar production partially offset by a decrease in beet sugar production. Louisiana cane sugar production for 2017/18 is increased by 130,000 STRV to 1.820 million due to a strong harvest campaign that is expected to extend into mid-January, according to industry reporting. Florida cane sugar production is increased by 39,038 STRV to 2.075 million based on processors’ estimates of sugar yield per acre made at the end of December. Beet sugar production for 2017/18 is decreased by 102,455 STRV to 5.257 million based on lower sugarbeet production reported by NASS. Additionally, beginning stocks are increased by 15,438 STRV based on inventory revisions submitted by processors to Sweetener Market Data. These supply increases are slightly offset by a reduction of 9,668 STRV due to fewer imports forecast to enter under FTA tariff-rate quotas. U.S. sugar use for 2017/18 is increased by a 50,000-STRV export increase consisting mostly of shipments to Mexico, part of which is expected to be under the U.S. re-export program. Ending stocks for 2017/18 are projected at 1.824 million STRV, implying a stocks-to-use ratio of 14.4 percent.

In Mexico, an increase in imports of 40,000 metric tons (MT) is offset by an increase in exports to non-U.S. destinations. The ending stocks total for 2017/18 remains at 1.008 million MT, an amount to meet sugar supply requirements of domestic consumption before the next season harvest.

Read the Full January WASDE report here