South America

Gulke: Here's Where We Stand In The Grain Markets

Fri, 28 Jun 2024 20:02:57 GMT

Jerry Gulke, owner of Gulke Group and a Top Producer columnist, recently joined the Top Producer podcast to share three trends he’s seeing in corn, soybean and wheat prices.

1. Volatile Corn Market
Overall, the price of corn has been on the downhill slide for the past two years following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, it’s important to keep historical prices in mind.

“Four or five years ago, we were hoping for $4 corn. Now, it’s a disaster if it goes that low,” he says. “We’ve had some good times, and now we’re paying the piper.”

Prices have rallied a bit since the end of February, but they are still frequently changing.

“We’re doing much better than last year in exports - so far, so good,” Gulke says. “Now it’s a day-to-day thing. I think we’re going to be in a marketplace where it’s volatile.”

2. Beans Aren’t Adding Up
As the South American soybean harvest comes to a close, the market isn’t changing the way Gulke anticipated.

“Something is kind of screwy,” he says. “Argentina should be coming on the market with a bigger export for meal, yet, we’re still exporting meal.”

He says the soybean market is behaving like there are too many beans in the U.S., and the South American crop is better than what some people think.

“We’re seeing some differences of opinions and the market is acting nervous,” Gulke says.

3. Wheat Is Interesting
Gulke explains that because the wheat market is small in comparison to what’s produced in Europe, it is heavily influenced by what the crops in those countries look like. And right now, production in Ukraine and Russia looks smaller than it did a few months ago.

“We’re a small fish in a big pond. When they have a small problem, it greatly affects our demand on a percentage basis for wheat here,” he says. “Russia doesn’t have a good crop every year. They do falter and they can falter by a lot.”

He cautions the wheat market is one farmers need to keep an eye on.

“Our indications were that a few weeks ago was the top in wheat. Right now, we’re not competitive with wheat price-wise - but we’re still hanging in there,” he says. “If we can get through harvest without too much of a break, then we may have put in a bottom quite some time ago.”

Catch up on all episodes of the Top Producer Podcast.

January May Be Yield-Defining Month for South American Weather

Fri, 29 Dec 2023 19:21:10 GMT

According to the meteorologists at BAMwx , the upcoming month in Brazil could be comparable to this past August for U.S. soybeans.

“The next three, maybe four weeks or so are warming up quite a bit in Central Brazil and drier too,” says Kirk Hinz, BAM meteorologist and president of business development.

Hinz adds if the area had seen favorable conditions until this point, the month ahead may not be as critical. But Central Brazil has been facing above average temperatures and isolated, scattered rainfall.

“We’re going back into that same pattern that kept us hotter and kept us drier – there’s a problem,” he says. “I am definitely concerned.”

The hotter, drier tendencies are a result of a strong El Nino weather pattern – which has the potential to stick around.

“Typically, El Nino starts to weaken as we get into the early part of the year,” Hinz says. “The weather models are going to have to adjust to this El Nino because it’s so strong it’s going to last a little bit longer. It’ll naturally decline some but to the extent of what the weather models say – I don’t think it’s going to happen.”

Just how quickly the effects of El Nino will decline is also an important factor for the North American growing season.

“The speed of the decline is really going to be the biggest thing for North America as we work into the planting and growing season,” says Bret Walts, BAM’s chief communications officer. “Historically, if you do end up on the slower side of things, you can get a pretty wet start.”

January is expected to show signs of the likelihood for a repeat of the 2019 planting season.

“I think the next month really is going to be critical to see if there’s any movement. If not, you’re probably leaning a little bit more on the wetter side of things,” Walts says. “To be completely honest, we’re riding the line right now based on the speed that we’re currently seeing of potential decline down the road.”

To hear more on this topic, as well as when the U.S. may start to see more wintery weather, listen to the AgriTalk podcast .

An Important Wildcard In The 2024 Grain Storage Outlook

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 22:15:21 GMT

U.S. grain elevators see potential for big profits in the 2023/2024 marketing year.

According to a recent report from CoBank, an abundance of corn and soybeans has resulted in cheaper basis and bigger carries in futures markets. This follows two years of inverted futures markets.Despite improved conditions for the elevators, there’s a big obstacle standing in the way of their profit potential.

“Many grain farmers have the benefit of being in a very strong cash position following last year’s record farm income levels. They have been quite content to hold on to their grain since prices have fallen,” says Tanner Ehmke, CoBank grains and oilseeds economist.

Lack of Grain Ownership at Elevators
Farmers’ reluctance to sell has resulted in lower levels of grain ownership for elevators and many are currently unable to take advantage of the wider carries and basis levels.

As a result, many elevators are charging higher storage fees and implementing delayed pricing (DP) programs. These programs have become popular as farmers wait for a rally in prices. However, Ehmke encourages elevators to use caution around them.

“Trading DP bushels comes with challenges,” he says. “Although the elevator technically owns these bushels, shipping unpriced bushels is risky since basis could tighten on DP bushels that are already sold – resulting in a loss if the elevator did not sufficiently charge for the service.”

He advises those using DP to acquire corn and soybeans now should make sure their monthly rates are adequately priced to account for the greater financial risk of selling bushels not yet priced by the grower.

Storage Outlook
This scenario, however, is not anticipated to be long term.

“Higher land rents and borrowing costs, combined with rising prices for inputs like fertilizer, will probably motivate farmers to sell as the calendar turns to 2024,” he says.

CoBank anticipates farmers will likely begin selling their crops in January, February and March ahead of spring planting and upcoming operational expenses and/or when prices reach $5/bu. for corn and $14/bu. for soybeans.

The Wildcard
When it comes to basis, any rise is expected to be limited by the large supply of corn and soybeans. At the same time, cheaper transportation rates, strong end-user demand among livestock producers, ethanol plants and soybean crushers should protect it from a significant drop.

Soybean basis in particular is strong due to a smaller U.S. soybean harvest and record processor demand.

The significant unknown, however, revolves around exports.

“The biggest wildcard that could affect the carry in basis is the U.S. corn and soybean export program, which could be awakened by a poor South American harvest, a surprise resurgence of Chinese demand, a return to more normal water levels on the Mississippi River, and weakness in the U.S. dollar,” Ehmke says.

A poor South American crop could mean a tighter basis and narrower spreads in futures – which would look similar to the past two years. A larger crop, however, would likely result in a widening of carries in basis for elevators.

El Nino's Effect on Crop Prices

Tue, 14 Nov 2023 15:00:00 GMT

A rebound in South American crops has been anticipated by traders for a long time. The focus for months has been the “big” crop coming in the southern hemisphere and the competition U.S. soybean farmers could suffer.

Recent WASDE reports had assumed another record Brazilian soybean crop and Argentina returning to normal, but the El Niño weather pattern might have something to say about that.

El Niño causes the waters of the Pacific Ocean to warm and normally has an impact on the world’s climate. In Brazil, it usually brings a drier climate in the north and northeast and rain in the south. The effect in Argentina is a wetter year beginning with a wet spring (Sept. to Nov.)

The table below reflects the potential for an increase of 31 million metric tons (mmt) or about 1.2 billion bushels. WASDE has recognized the importance of the U.S. losing exports to a whopper crop by lowering U.S. exports this year to 1.76 billion bushels. This is compared to the past three years of exports at 2.26, 2.16 and 1.99, respectively.

Yet when supplies from all sources are put into WASDE’s global supply and demand tables, U.S. carryout is seen as 245 million bushels or about 6.5 mmt. The importance of El Niño becomes apparent.

Change in Perspective
Total 2023/24 production in Brazil and Argentina is seen at about 211 mmt. The U.S. carryover of 6.5 is only 3% of that total. If Brazil would have an El Niño production comparable to last year’s record, the 7 mmt shortfall would offset the U.S. total carryover. Suddenly, the perspective changes.

Sources in Brazil say crop potential has already been reduced by 2 mmt to 3 mmt. Further implications for replant and delayed planting suggest supplies out of Brazil will, at a minimum, be delayed.

As a result, this delays the country’s safrinha corn planting and affects their yield by 2 mmt to 3 mmt as well. Reductions due to too wet and too dry conditions is yet to be determined but is currently on the radar of global traders.

Market psychology is a big part of price discovery on a day-to-day basis. Price adjustments come quick and pronounced as well. While corn and wheat gave back all their gains realized in the two-year bull market, soybeans managed to lose only 50%.

The reason is there are only two producers who share nearly 100% of exportable supplies. For corn, there are four: the U.S., Argentina, The European Union (EU) and Ukraine. There are seven major producers of wheat: the U.S., Canada, Ukraine, Russia, EU, Australia and Argentina with India as a smaller exporter.

Generally, when a major exporter has a problem with exportable supplies, other players make up the difference. Everyone grows some wheat, but most must import some. With two big exporters of soybeans, the implications are huge, and a reduction in exportable supplies by one can significantly affect price.

Market perception (psychology) can be under appreciated when it comes to price discovery.

4 Reasons Why You Should Care About South America

Wed, 08 Nov 2023 21:58:53 GMT

Why should farmers in the U.S. care about South America? Here are four reasons, says Jon Scheve, president of grain at Superior Feed Ingredients:

1. Planting and/or harvest happens almost year-round in South America.

2. Because of South America’s vast crop production geography, it’s easy to misinterpret weather reports.

3. Most of Brazil’s second corn crop is exported and directly competes with the U.S. crop.

4. While average corn yields are lower in South America versus the U.S., they are steadily increasing.

In South America, soybeans are grown on a long north-south axis, which means they are planted and they mature at very different times. In the U.S., crops are grown more on an east-west axis where planting and maturing dates are more similar throughout the growing region.

“South America’s soybean planting window lasts nearly four months; in the U.S., it lasts about six weeks,” Scheve says. “Because of Brazil’s north-south axis, some fields in the southern part of the country could be planted on the same day fields in the north are harvested.”

When it comes to weather, the vast growing region in South America means there are areas experiencing drought while others deal with too much rain.

“Mato Grosso is probably the most important region to watch because it produces nearly 10% of the world’s soybeans, or the equivalent of Illinois and Iowa’s production combined,” Scheve explains.

The states of Parana and Rio Grande do Sul in southern Brazil are also important to watch, he adds. Combined, they are as key as Mato Grosso, but the two regions have different weather patterns. When Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are dry, Argentina, Paraguay and Uruguay are likely experiencing the same, which all told have double the growing acres as the entire U.S.

Brazil Clears Bottlenecks to Oust US as Top Corn Exporter

Thu, 24 Aug 2023 16:46:18 GMT

Brazil is set to overtake the U.S. this year as the world’s top corn exporter, reflecting both a bumper harvest and logistical breakthroughs such as the consolidation of northern export routes, which are boosting the competitiveness of the South American grains powerhouse.

Corn exports through Brazil’s northern ports, which use the waterways of the Amazon River basin to ship grains globally, are on track to beat volumes via the most traditional port of Santos for a third consecutive year, according to a Reuters analysis of grain shipping data.

The shift underscores how Brazil, which churns out three corn crops per year and still has huge expanses of under-used farmland, is finally overcoming some of the infrastructure bottlenecks that have long made it hard to get its bountiful harvests to global markets.

That and a new supply deal with China announced last year suggest Brazil may be opening a longer era of supremacy over U.S. corn exports, unlike the last time the Brazilians briefly grabbed the global corn crown during North America’s drought-hit 2012/13 season.

The improved export capacity helped Brazil to fill gaps in the global corn market amid disruptions from the war in major grain exporter Ukraine and trade tensions between the U.S. and China.

“We celebrated a lot ... when (corn export) volumes via northern ports equaled Santos,” said Sergio Mendes, head of Brazilian grain exporter group Anec. “By using northern ports ... you are saving 20 reais ($4.12) per ton (of corn).”

Major new investments in Brazil have begun to ease several chokepoints and bring down logistics costs sharply, helping to undercut U.S. farmers.

Northern export routes in particular have benefited from a 2013 law that encouraged grains traders such as Cargill and Bunge, and barge operator Hidrovias do Brasil, to build out new private-use port terminals (TUPs).

Their transshipment stations on the Tapajos and Madeira rivers have linked up the heart of Brazilian farm country and up-and-coming Amazonian ports such as Itacoatiara, Santarem and Barcarena.

The Tegram grain terminal at Itaqui, built and operated by foreign and Brazilian grain merchants including Louis Dreyfus Commodities and Amaggi, boosted its grain export volumes by 306% in eight years to more than 13 million tons in 2022, according to data provided by the firms.

The TUP legal framework, unlike a traditional concession for a limited period, has unlocked a wave of long-term port investments in Brazil. Some 39 billion reais ($8.0 billion) have poured into building and expanding 112 new private-use terminals under the new law, according to a 2020 study by Brazil’s TCU federal audit court.

Brazil’s farm industry, however, is not past all of its logistical woes. On-farm storage capacity still pales next to rival grain powers like Canada, the U.S. and Argentina.

In the No. 1 grains state of Mato Grosso, the storage gap had surged to 46 million metric tons, according to state government data through 2021, after the annual corn harvest tripled in a decade to over 90 million tons, faster than new silos could be built.

A lack of storage space means Brazilian farmers are forced to quickly sell their harvests or pile their corn outside warehouses and hope for good weather. As a result, much of the Brazil harvest crowds onto the roads during a narrow seasonal window, which can make for expensive traffic jams.

Cheaper Route to China

The new export capacity has helped grains shipped from Brazil’s northern ports to compete on logistics costs with U.S. farmers.

Shipping a ton of soybeans in 2008 from Iowa to Shanghai was 77% of the price of using Brazil’s northern ports, but by March 2023 it was 5% more expensive shipping it from the U.S., according to U.S. Department of Agriculture and Brazil’s ESALQ-LOG data. For corn, freight values are very similar, says Thiago Pera, logistics research coordinator at ESALQ-LOG.

The Amazon basin has also become competitive with the southeastern port of Santos, long the powerhouse of Brazilian grains exports. Some 37% of Brazil’s total corn exports flowed through Barcarena, Itaqui, Itacoatiara and Santarem ports in the first half of 2023, according to Brazil’s crop agency Conab. Just 24% flowed through Santos.

By comparison, Santos exported almost three times more corn than those four northern ports in 2015, before heavy investments expanded port capacity in the Amazon region.

“The greater share of shipments through northern ports reflects cheaper freight costs compared to routes to the ports in the south and southeast,” said Thome Guth, a Conab official.

Conab forecasts Brazil’s 2023 total corn output at nearly 130 million metric tons, the highest ever, and exports reaching 50 million metric tons for the first time.

Corn futures in Chicago have fallen from a 10-year high in April 2022 to a two-and-a-half-year low this month, in part due to ample supplies from Brazil.

Brazil’s surging export infrastructure shows little sign of letting up, even though lower prices may discourage farmers from expanding plantings as rapidly.

Chinese state-owned trader COFCO is now building a major new grains terminal at Santos after getting a 25-year license to operate a unit with capacity for 14 million tons. Shipments from COFCO’s STS11 terminal are scheduled to begin in 2026.

A highway license issued two years ago has also modernized a key Amazonian grain corridor stretching over 1,000 kilometers (625 miles) from Mato Grosso to ports in Para state, known as BR-163.

For years, caravans of grain trucks would get stuck regularly in deep mud on that road when they got caught in the rain on their way to northern ports.

Major rail projects still face an array of bureaucratic obstacles, but a few have gotten off the drawing board.

Brazil’s largest rail company Rumo just finished an investment of 4 billion reais on the Ferrovia Norte Sul, started in 2019. The line connects Santos port to farm states Tocantins, Goias, Minas Gerais and Mato Grosso, reinforcing another key route to get Brazilian harvests to global markets.

($1 = 4.8769 reais)

(Reporting by Ana Mano; Editing by Brad Haynes and Marguerita Choy)

Soybean Harvest Is Just Beginning in Brazil. Here’s What the Crop Looks Like

Fri, 20 Jan 2023 23:04:15 GMT

The AgResource team has been on the ground in Mato Grosso, Brazil this past week. Here’s a summary of their findings from the soybean rows.

A large Brazilian soybean crop will be harvested in the next 30 to 45 days, and most likely USDA, CONAB (the National Supply Company, a public company under the Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock and Food Supply in Brazil) and private analysts will be forced to raise Brazilian soybean production estimates by 1 million to 3 million tons (37 million to 110 million bushels). A crop of at least 150 million tons versus 129.5 million last year is guaranteed.

AgResource’s final yield estimate in Mato Grosso, by far the country’s largest producing state, is 60.3 bu. per acre after revisiting possible harvest losses and disease pressure. This is 8 bu. per acre more than CONAB’s current forecast.

Their final stop of the tour in Cuibá, Mato Grosso, the state’s capital, included a visit to an organization called IMEA, which monitors and collects data on all things agriculture in central and western Brazil. IMEA reiterated they, too, are finding yields above expectations.

There will be yield loss in the far south of Brazil, but yield gains in Mato Grosso and surrounding states will more than offset any yield hit.

Harvest losses will likely result from new incurable (for now) diseases. Local farmers suggest it will be a challenge for final yields to exceed 60 bu. But there is very little doubt a massive Brazilian soybean crop will be available to the global marketplace in the coming weeks. Dry weather in Mato Grosso over the next 5 to 7 days will allow harvest, statewide, to reach 6% to 8% complete this weekend. Additionally, safrinha corn planting will occur on a timely basis.

U.S. producers must acknowledge that Brazil will intensely compete for world market share in 2023. IMEA also shared data with AgResource that indicates the area dedicated to soybean production might double over the next decade. Studies show a large portion of Mato Grosso’s current pastureland is conducive to soybean production. With expanded soybean area comes larger safrinha corn production. Price, costs and currency will determine just how quickly expansion occurs, but Brazil does have the ability to help meet larger global soybean, meal and oil consumption over the next decade.

Day by Day Recap

In central Mato Grosso, soybeans generally have high yield potential. On day one of the crop tour, pods per plant ranged from 65 to 182 with yield estimates from 40 bu. to 67 bu. per acre. Harvest is 10 to 14 days away.

In Sorriso, soybean yield will likely hit or exceed record high, but there are a few concerning spots, particularly 250 hectares (620 acres) on the fourth stop of AgResource’s tour. It’s been much wetter than average in central Mato Grosso since Dec. 1, with precipitation ranging from 15.2” to 16.0”, or 105% to 140% more than normal. Standing water is present. The pod-per-plant count was as low as 12, with beans capped at just two per pod. Yield is estimated at 7 bu. per acre.

Harvest has begun but is 8 to 10 days behind schedule.

Day two in Novo Maringá and Ponte de Pedra featured much better yield potential, but confirmation Mato Grosso is struggling with unknown diseases and currently no solutions. Coupled with excessive cloudy days and rainfall, yield potential has been capped but a record crop is still expected.

Stop one featured an average pod count of 76 per plant and an expected 70 bu. per acre yield. However, it’s clear disease has made the pods at the bottom 15% to 20% of the plant unviable. Agronomist Rafael Mandarino suggests pod loss of 10% was probable, which could lower yield to 63 bu. per acre.

Stop two showed further improvement despite disease issues causing probable pod abortion at the lower end of the plant or breakage of stems. AgResource notes that these are two separate diseases. Stop two featured an average pod-per-plant count of 46. Yield is estimated at 70 bu. per acre amid general uniformity.

On the remaining stops of the day, average pod-per-plant count ranged from 53 to 75. Yields ranged from 60 bu. to 80 bu.

To end the day, the AgResource team made their way to a field in Ponte de Pedre, a rather remote area between Nova Moringá and Campo Novo do Parecis. This field was planted later but will still likely be harvested in the next 20 to 25 days (remember defoliate is used). Yield potential is excellent. Pods-per-plant totaled 75. It’s early to say much about yield, but 70 bu. to 75 bu. per acre is possible with drier weather in late January and early February.

Harvest, which is ongoing, will accelerate this week. Combines and safrinha corn planters are active.

On day three, the AgResource’s tour went from Campo Novo Parecis to Cuibá and found mixed results but again validated USDA’s Brazilian soybean production forecast of 153 million tons (5.6 billion bushels, a record) is close. There might be upside potential to only 154 million, but this week’s tour strongly suggests a crop of 150 million tons or better is nearly assured.

Stop one, in Campo Novo Parecis, featured decent pod counts and general uniformity, but also signs of disease, which likely will impact yield at harvest. The average pod-per-plant count was 40. Yield is estimated at 55 bu. per acre, a bit lower than the 60-plus bushels seen in areas farther north and east.

Stop two, in Seringal Tres Lagao, featured an average pod count of 50, though the majority had only two beans. Yield is estimated at 51 bu. per acre. Farmers reported challenges during early planting – the wet season was rather slow to evolve in portions of Mato Grosso – but otherwise there are no major issues. Harvest will begin in this region in 10 to 12 days.

Stop three, in Caju, showed massive improvement, which will likely push Mato Grosso’s soybean yield above CONAB’s current estimate. The average pod count was 65. Approximately 80% of the plants had three-bean pods. Yield is estimated at 71 bu. per acre. Development in this area is a bit delayed. Harvest is expected in the first half of February.

The southern edge of Mato Grosso’s soy belt will perform best. Stop four, in Manoel Laje, featured plants roughly 4 feet tall and very, very green. This field, too, will be harvested in the first half of February but above-trend yields are guaranteed. Pods-per-plant averaged only 42, nearly all of which were three-bean pods. Yield is estimated at 65 bu. per acre.

JUST IN: ADM sets record for single soybean shipment from northern Brazil

Thu, 22 Sep 2022 02:43:03 GMT

By Nayara Figueiredo

SAO PAULO, Feb 22 (Reuters) - U.S. grains merchant Archer-Daniels-Midland Co said on Tuesday it has carried out the largest soybean shipment in the history of the Ponta da Montanha Grain Terminal (TGPM), located in the northern Brazilian city of Barcarena, as it shipped 84,802 tonnes in a single vessel.

It also represented the largest volume ever shipped on a grain vessel from ports located in the Amazon Basin, the company told Reuters.

“This showed us that we have one more option to move soybeans through the TGPM, using our own vessel... This is definitely something we will do again more often”, ADM’s South America Logistics Director, Vitor Vinuesa, said in a statement.

ADM-owned bulk carrier MV Harvest Frost, which is 237 meters (777.56 ft) long and 40 meters wide, set sail last week for the port of Rotterdam in the Netherlands, where the company also owns a terminal. The company said all the soybeans moved will be crushed by ADM itself, obtaining products such as soymeal, cooking oil and biodiesel.

The previous record for shipments from Brazil’s northern region was set at the port of Santarem in 2020, when 82,531 tonnes of soybean were moved in a single vessel.

(Reporting by Nayara Figueiredo; Writing by Gabriel Araujo; Editing by Bernadette Baum)

La Nina Will Probably Be Sticking Around Through All of Winter

Sun, 15 Nov 2020 19:03:11 GMT

Looks like a potentially market-roiling La Nina will last through the new year, threatening to bring a colder, snowier winter to the northern U.S., drought to Latin America’s soybean-growing regions and rain to Australia’s coal mines.

The odds of the weather phenomenon, characterized by unusually cold ocean temperatures in the Pacific, lasting through February are 92 percent, the U.S. Climate Prediction Center said Thursday. That’s up from 73 percent just a month ago. The center said the pattern will probably fade in mid- to late-spring.

The kind of weather La Nina tends to bring could spur a rally for heating fuels including natural gas and electricity and for commodities from corn to soybeans to coal. Wheat-rich Argentina has already been dealing with drier weather, and forecasters including World Weather Inc. have raised La Nina as an even bigger threat later this month. The operator of America’s largest power market has warned of the coldest winter in at least three years because of the phenomenon, and gas bulls have been holding out hope for frigid temperatures.

“La Nina is predicted to persist through the Northern Hemisphere winter by nearly all models,” according to the Climate Prediction Center outlook issued Thursday. “Forecasters favor the peak of a weak-to-moderate La Nina during the winter.”

Taking Hold

While states in the northern half of the U.S. could get colder, the south may be warmer and dryer than usual.

A U.S. study of November weather conditions across the U.S. show La Nina’s impact already taking hold, perfectly matching the typical conditions of the phenomenon, said Michelle L’Heureux, a forecaster with the Climate Prediction Center in College Park, Maryland. It was “just a one-month map, and it was strikingly La Nina-like,” she said by telephone.

The first part of December brought some unexpected weather, however, with record snowfalls and frigid temperatures plaguing the U.S. South. This was probably the result of another, shorter-lived weather phenomenon called the Madden Julian Oscillation, L’Heureux said.

Once the Madden Julian Oscillation fades, a more predictable pattern of cold in the Pacific Northwest to the Great Lakes and milder weather across the South and Mid-Atlantic states will return, she said.

‘Skier’s Delight’

The pattern is set to be “a skier’s delight over the northern U.S.,” according to a blog post by Stephen Baxter, a Climate Prediction Center meteorologist. Weaker events tend to bring more snow in the Pacific Northwest, northern Rocky Mountains and northern New England, based on an analysis of data from the Rutgers University Global Snow Lab, he said.

It’s harder to predict what La Nina means for New York and Boston because they’re at the edge of where the snow typically falls. The fate of that region will probably hinge on where the rain-snow line forms during every winter storm that strikes.

The recent deluge of rain in Argentina could offset the impacts of La Nina on crops by leaving enough water reserves to keep up yields this season. But JPMorgan Chase & Co. has already forecast higher prices and volatility due in part to La Nina that, it said, will help to curb the recent multi-year gain in global corn and wheat yields.

The phenomenon could offer natural gas bulls some relief, too. Gas futures plunged earlier this week to the lowest settlement in 10 months on mild temperature forecasts. Volatility for next-month contracts has rebounded to the highest levels since February amid uncertainty in weather outlooks.