Soybean News

Monumental Week: Grains Top After China News Fails to Excite

Sat, 16 May 2026 01:51:05 GMT

For the week July corn was down 15 ½ cents, December corn fell 12 ½, July soybeans lost 31, November soybeans were 18 ¾ lower, July soybean meal was $14.60 higher, July bean oil was down 44-points, July soft red winter wheat was 16 ¾ higher, July hard red winter wheat gained 12 ¼ and July hard red spring wheat tacked on 7 cents.

Corn and soybeans were lower for the week on technical selling and profit taking following disappointment over the lack of details regarding U.S. agricultural purchases out of this week’s China summit.

Recently, Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, had been talking about the building uptrend in the grain markets which made higher highs for two consecutive months. The key to keeping that uptrend intact was for the market to make new highs again in May. However, that trend fell apart with the lower closes in corn and soybeans this week.

Grain Bull Market Stalls
“Yeah, we were watching it very closely, and we kept getting new news ever since January 2 when the market started to go higher. There were some bumps in the road, but the market, especially soybeans, recovered from that,” he says.

The corn and soybean markets kept attempting to make new highs the last two months according to Gulke and even recovered from the selloff on from the shock of the WASDE on January 12 when USDA increased corn production to a record 17 billion bu. and found another 2.4 million harvested acres of corn.

Gulke says the market continued to shake off bearish trade headlines and rallied to close higher for February and above the January high.“March took out the February high and April took out the March high. So, there was no doubt about what the trend was.”
And then, according to Gulke, market analysts started getting bullish.

China Optimism Fueled Rally
“Many were recommended buying calls in case China came in to buy the additional 8 million metric tons (MMT) of soybeans or even corn.That was before we even knew the number of acres or the yield of this year’s crop, which could really make things exciting, “he explains.

Gulke says the market’s job is to digest all the information and make a price commensurate with what it hears or anticipates coming down the road, including optimism about the China meeting.

“It failed a couple of different times where we had key reversals up, key reversals down. We just couldn’t extend. And when you go sideways for a while, and say, if you ever extend to the upside and you break out to the upside then Katie bar the door,” he adds.

At that point Gulke says the markets go up just because they haven’t gone down for such a long time and it brings people into the market. “I even heard on CNBC that some people were selling some socks to buy commodities because of inflation,” he describes.

Monumental Week in Grain Markets
This week several markets, including new crop corn, soybeans and bean oil made contract highs and then reversed.

“What happened this week was monumental in my mind,” says Gulke, “The market tried to get higher again and there was enough information out there. Not so much what we heard, but what we didn’t hear.”

He says the lack of news on China ag purchases really topped the market from a technical standpoint.“I’ve seen this happen before. Markets tops are made on the most bullish news,” he says.

The same is true of lows, which are made when the news is the worst.Gulke says a prime example is the lows made in corn and soybean markets in August of 2024 on massive forced farmer selling ahead of first notice day for September contracts.

“And then we turned around and went higher from there. So, the reverse is true.”

Market Ripe for Profit Taking
Gulke says the correction wasn’t a huge surprise because the grain markets were due for a correction, especially as traders get caught leaning the wrong way as push the market farther or higher than it fundamentally should trade.

Has the Grain Market Topped?
So, with lower weekly closes on corn and soybean have those markets topped?

Gulke thinks from a technical standpoint it is possible, “I’ve got to ask myself, what is it going to take now for the market to go back up to those price levels and make new highs?”

He says the market started falling apart overnight Wednesday when President Trump and President Xi were meeting in China.

“You could just see that this thing was unraveling because things weren’t what we thought they were going to be. So, now the market looks at the prices on Tuesday and Wednesday and by Thursday morning thinks we were way too high, and sells off,” he says.

USTR Jamieson Greer stated China will buy double digit billions of dollar of U.S. ag goods over the next three years.

However, Gulke says the 25 MMT of soybeans China verbally agreed to buy is the only framework for bushels the market currently has to work with as no agreement has been signed.

“Once you harvest the crop, we’ll find out whether China wants to buy at a cheaper price. You know, if I were China, no way in the world I would step in and buy $12 soybeans after they’d been $9.50, 18 months ago. And you’ve got Brazil still selling cheaper beans. Same way with corn,” he says.

So, until more details are known about China trade, he adds the only hope for a recovery in the grains markets is weather.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Grains Slide Further After China Summit: Is the Long Term Uptrend Still Intact?

Fri, 15 May 2026 21:25:56 GMT

Grain and cotton markets continued lower on Friday with cattle higher.

Grains and Cotton Slide Further After China Summit
Grain and cotton markets saw follow through selling and fund liquidation for a second day.

Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says the market was removing China premium after the disappointing summit as the market wanted more details on ag purchases.

“I just think the concept here was that most people believed, including myself to some extent, that we were going to have some tangible,
concrete evidence of increased purchases of other ag products whether it’s corn, whether it’s cotton and such forth. We just felt that for him to go out there and come back empty-handed was not a likely scenario and he came back the way it looks pretty empty-handed without anything
tangible anything concrete,” he explains.

Market Wants Proof
Despite USTR Jamieson Greer stating that China would commit to double digit billions of dollars of agricultural goods for the next three years the market discounted it.

Hackett says the market now wants proof of sales.

“It needs proof. It needs to know how much of which markets. When are those purchases going to start in earnest? Is it going to be a quarterly thing? Is it going to be just an annual thing? Can they do it whenever they want? So much of that has to do with what’s the appropriate pricing
discovery mechanism for today based upon the nature of these purchases.”

He points out that during the Phase One there were exact quantities.

“And that gave the market clarity on how to handle the supply demand equation in each of those markets. We’re left guessing and guessing isn’t going to bring confidence into our markets to bid them up from where they were prior to this meeting.”

How Much China Premium Left to Remove?
So the markets have been extracting China premium, especially cotton and soybeans and there was way more premium than people even thought.

Many observers thought the recent run up in grain and cotton markets was tied to weather and war or geopolitical premium, not trade premium.

“And given the way things. have played out the last couple of days it’s becoming clear that a lot of that late rally we saw leading into this meeting was more about the trade premium than anything else and I think the market got surprised in misdiagnosing what the premium was coming from and hence you know the big knockdown and the big surprise,” he says.

How Much Lower Will Grain Prices Fall?
So how much more fund selling will those market see and how low could grain prices fall?

He says, “Maybe we have another day or two, but I think most of the heavy selling is behind us. I say that because it’s so early in the growing season. I think the market, in order to get the funds to liquidate more, will want to see that we’re going to have a good growing season.”

Funds Stay Long Through Early Growing Season
He says it’s still too early for the speculator to give up on their long positions and the weather.

“In fact just if you look at cotton today it was kind of hard down lock limit through most of the day but then did come off limit here as we approach the end of trading and so that says to me that we might have gotten most of those short-term aggressive traders out of the market and we might at least stabilize next week,” he adds.

Chart Damage
Still cotton, soybean oil, corn and soybeans posted lower weekly closes and reversed from new highs early in the week and scored reversals.

So, how much technical damage was done?

“It’s a strong reversal but if you look at the up trends that we that began at the beginning of the year we’re still holding those up trends even after today but barely meaning we’re at a point where if we’re going to maintain any technical. credibility, we need to dig our heels in here and at least abide by the upward trend line,” he explains.

So it was a warning sign but he thinks as long as the uptrends hold it will prevent any additional technical selling.

Iran War Not Over
Plus, he says the Iran war is not over and energy prices are still going up, even though the grain futures ignored it on Friday.

“There’s too many uncertainties that’s going to want to keep the speculators holding some ground here,” he states.

That inflationary concerns are not going to go away. So at some point is that going to come back to be supportive for grains and cotton?

Hackett says, “Absolutely. I don’t see that this Iran situation, anything has really changed. The fertilizer situation is definitely not changed. The further we get on into the year, the more this fertilizer situation, especially in places like India and Brazil, where they really don’t have to import so much of this fertilizer, are going to start to show themselves into needing higher prices to effectuate the outcomes that we need. And so that’s a good long-term supportive mechanism.”

Near Term Weather More Favorable
Near term weather is looking for favorable with some rains in dry areas of the Western Corn Belt and Southern Plains.

“Good rains in Texas, the deep South, the Southeast areas that haven’t had a drop of rain in months. No doubt that the weather in the next couple of weeks is going to be quite productive. Doesn’t mean it ends the drought scenario there, but it takes the pressure off. It allows some planting to accelerate where they haven’t been able to plant because it’s been too dry,” he says.

So that is not going to give the speculator any reason to want to add weather premium.

Has Wheat Topped?
The wheat market has already been removing weather premium he says and may have put in a spike top the day of the USDA report.

“It looks like it traded the worst news you could trade on the bad U.S. winter wheat crop,” he says.

The results of the Kansas Wheat Tour confirmed the 54 year low in the wheat crop USDA printed but that even failed to move the market so the worst news is priced in.

“They didn’t say it was good, but they said it was a little better than the USDA said. And remember, we are only the fifth largest producer in the world and we’re only the fifth largest exporter in the world. Russia, Ukraine looks great. They look like they could have a record wheat crop and others don’t look so bad either. So I think you have to say, how much premium can we add onto the market?”

Bullish Grains for 2027
So Hackett says he is still bullish for 2027 grain and cotton futures, especially with the weather set up.

“Our view is we have this significant El Nino weather pattern coming for the U.S., which means very good crops. But once we digest this crop, everything that I see going forward on weather, everything that I see on cost of production says to me that in 2027, we should be looking at prices considerably better than what we’ve just seen before this big break.”

Cattle Rally With Cash and Futures Discount
Cattle futures were higher on Friday with another week of record cash and continued tight supplies. So how long will that hold prices at these high levels?

Hackett says, “We don’t have the animals. And so unless, you know, somehow we’re able to import some higher quality beef. I mean, we’re bringing the lower quality side, but the higher quality we’re not. Unless the Mexican border opens up, or Brazilian tariffs are cut, it’s just hard to see how you could get a big break in this market.”

Plus, grilling season demand should continue to support.

He adds, “The cattle situation will take years to get ourselves out of this, not three to six months.”

China to Re-List U.S. Beef Plants
News also out on Friday afternoon that China is relisting 425 U.S. beef plants for export.

Hackett says the U.S. doesn’t have a whole lot of beef to export and prices may be too high for them to buy anyway.

“I would argue, do we really need to be importing beef to China? I mean, I’m sure every cattle producer wants the highest price he can possibly get, and I understand that. But at the same time, I mean, we’re dealing with a terrible prolonged structural shortage of very, very high beef prices. The president wanting and demanding that beef prices come down. It just seems to me like we’re at odds.”

Cattle Higher as Cash is King, How Crazy Could it Get? Hogs and Grains See Fund Selling

Fri, 15 May 2026 16:02:42 GMT

Cattle were higher early Friday with the rest of the ag markets lower.

Cattle Rebound Friday
Cattle futures took a breather Thursday but were back higher early Friday with volatility reigning supreme according to Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek.

He says the cattle futures are getting tougher and tougher to trade because of the choppy action. “Because there’s no bids, no offers. The volume is hard. I mean, you try to sell five feeders at the market and all of a sudden it kicks the order back because there’s too much movement.”

That is making it tough for hedgers to use the board.

“So and as we’re doing these hedge strategies, we said, OK, we would like to use a spring rally to try to get some long term protection on. Now,
putting that on is really hard in these markets and you have to be ready. It’s not going to be cheap to get some floors on in the feeder cattle market,” he says.

Record Cash but How Crazy Could it Get?
The futures market is still at a discount to this week’s record cash trade which continues to look bullish.

The volume of cash in the North was in the $265 area but the South also saw $260 to $262 as packers seem hungry for cattle according to Varilek.

“I mean, just the hunger from certain majors and all the packers out there buying these cattle is really wow to me. We get some $265 trade, you know, getting this really wide basis normally this is our widest basis is in May and at record prices,” he says.

And packers are buying at these prices for delayed delivery into even the middle of June which is also bullish.

“They’re just grabbing a bunch of inventory so that way they can sit for a while and then it seems like then they’re back the next week already. So still tight supplies up front. It feels really good. And I love it that some of these majors are out front. You know, for the north, that means a lot.”

He says usually Northern feed lots have a hard time getting bids from certain packers but that isn’t the case this year as the cattle market is into its tightest supplies.

“But we’re turning over to this calf crop where these weights are a lot lower, and we’ve got cattle on feed that we might not want to sell yet and packers are calling bidding on them,” he adds.

So next week he expects asking prices will be higher at $268 to $270.

Higher Cattle Limits
Part of the break in the futures on Thursday was news the CME Group was raising limits on cattle again to $8.50 on live cattle and $10.75 on feeder cattle.

Varilek says that only benefits the big fund traders and they are pushing for it, to the expense of producers.

“We do not want that as producers. It’s hard to see our bottom line change by that much just in the matter of seconds. It doesn’t feel like we need that,” he adds.

Ft. Morgan Union to Vote on a Strike on Monday
The Fort Morgan, CO Cargill beef plant union is expected to vote on whether they are striking or not on Monday.

However, Varilek says it may be a non-event because the plant has been dark and the market hasn’t cared.

” And it just feels like we haven’t traded that real hard just because it’s been closed for four weeks and yet we’re still seeing cash move higher. Packers are still very aggressive buying cattle. It’s like, OK, I guess I guess nothing happened. So if there’s some more new news next week, maybe we’ll see if it really dives into the market.”

He’s doubtful it will but the bigger concern is another plant closure.

China Beef News
Conflicting news reports on China re-listing nearly 400 U.S. beef plants for export ended with China still not accepting U.S. beef.

However, Varilek says the market did not trade it.

” I feel like we brushed it off, you know, just because, number one, we know Trump’s saying beef prices are too high and he wants to import a bunch of beef to try to handle this tight supply. So we know we don’t have just a large amount of beef to sell, to export, you know, so we don’t really have it. So then the fact that it came out that they’re not, I don’t think we’re trading that real hard,” he adds.

Hogs Spiral on Mexican Export Resistrictions?
Lean hogs saw a nice rally on Wednesday but failed to get follow through buying on Thursday or to start Friday.

Varilek says the inability of the market to find a bottom may be tied to Mexico putting some export restrictions on U.S. pig semen, live breeding animals and offal due to pseudorabies.

“A negative flag that it’s raising there just because Mexico is our number one customer there for pork and and we desperately need it and this adds value to some of the lower quality pork products,” he says.

He says this doesn’t impact muscle cuts but Mexico does take a large amount of variety meats and this accounts for 10% of all their imports.

That is offsetting some of the positive news in the market including that two to three packers aren’t killing on Fridays because they can’t find enough hogs.

Funds Sell in Grains on China Disappointment
Grains are lower again Friday after funds sold hard in the grain and cotton markets on Thursday.

It was in response to the lack of tangible agricultural purchase commitments from China during the summit in Beijing.

Will the funds continue to liquidate in the grains after the technical damage done?

He says, “Yeah, we’re doing some short-term chart damage here and things just are trading pretty ugly today despite the higher energy markets. The grains had rallied on hopes of China business and just the fact that we did not get any news the funds didn’t like it,” he says.

How Low Will Prices Fall?
Varilek sees the grains slipping back into the recent trading ranges but there is good chart support on the bottom side of the ranges that should hold going into the growing season.

“So I’ll be looking for Sunday night’s trade to kind of start to hold as funds usually liquidate in three day waves. We might try to find some value buyers, some end users in some of these markets. So not ready to write it off and say, we got to go find some new lows here,” he says.

Grains Collapse on China Disappointment: How Low Will Prices Fall?

Thu, 14 May 2026 21:46:09 GMT

Grains were sharply lower on Thursday with livestock also seeing pressure.

Grain and Cotton Markets Fall on China Disappointment
Grain and cotton markets crashed on Thursday with profit taking and fund liquidation tied to disappointment over the lack of agricultural purchase agreements during day one of the U.S. China summit.

Don Roose with U.S. Commodities says soybeans saw the brunt of the selling.

“We had some optimism that we were going to get some kind of a big trade deal with China. So, we went in with a lot of optimism and I think as we look at it so far there just really isn’t anything new or anything concrete. In fact, it seems like some of the other bigger focuses on like jets and some of these outside things versus the ag products,” he says.

U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said while China does not need old crop soybeans the original 25 million metric ton agreement on soybeans struck back in October is still in place. Still there is nothing in writing.

Roose says, “Yes, that’s the only thing that we’ve picked up here so far is that the old agreement, the verbal agreement that they had, the 25 million metric tons for the next three years each year is going to be in place. And by the way, that’s pretty much what we’ve had over history or at least the last 10 years. So nothing really big on that one either.”

And he adds that now the U.S. faces big competition from South America’s record crop.

“And now we have to compete in the world market and it seems like China is pretty well bloated with soybeans. So that makes it tough for new sales. You look at the balance table for next year, 26, 27 the government took the liberty to up the exports 100 million in the WASDE. So let’s call that one iffy here so far.” he adds.

No 8 MMT Old Crop Soybean Purchases

Many in the trade had questioned the idea of China buying 8 million metric tons of old crop soybeans when President Trump posted the news on social media on February 4.

Roose says it made no economic sense for China to buy U.S. soybeans with Brazil so much cheaper.

“Yeah, you know, I mean, during that time frame, and even now, Brazil’s sitting somewhere, let’s just call it 80 cents cheaper than we are at the Gulf. So, yeah, economics. And that’s what the Chinese, so far in the meeting, they say that they’re really looking forward to trade, fair trade, and trade that makes sense for this around the world from a price standpoint. So it looks like to us that they’re very price cautious and conscious and that means that our soybeans probably are not the first choice here right now,” he says.

Tariffs to Fall?
The one question mark is whether or not the tariffs might be lifted between the two countries for the next six months.

Roose says those are still just rumors. “We’ll see if the tariffs come off 10% on each side and get back to more of just a normal type of a trade.”

He points out that even if the tariffs come off South American soybeans and corn are still a lot cheaper than the U.S.

“So from a soybean standpoint, we’re still going to have to compete in the world market, which right now is a little bit tough with South America coming as heavy with some big sales,” he adds.

Technical Damage to Grain Charts
So with the big wash out how much damage was done to the grain charts?

Roose says new crop soybeans had been in an uptrend for nearly a month but with the close the technicals now show the market in a downtrend.

“So from our standpoint, we did a lot of damage.”

He says the corn and soybean oil markets also show chart damage.

“It started already Wednesday in soybean oil. The corn market, old and new crop, turned into a downtrend. Soybean meal, a downtrend. The one that’s still holding on the ventilator and that’s the wheat market.”

How Low Will Grain Prices Fall?
On top of that the funds are record long across all the grains according to Roose, so will that trigger follow through selling?

He says, “When you have a market turning into a downtrend and you’re overbought, which we still are, and back to the funds and you’ve got them moving, you know, you’ve got to be pretty concerned here. So not a good close, not the type of close you’d want to see. Needs to bounce back at the end of the week significantly.”

If not how low will grain prices go to take out the China premium in the market?

Short term he doesn’t think the market can take out too much premium because of the war and the outside markets.

“I think we take it in steps. Let’s look at these crop ratings. They’re going to be coming out here soon. So ultimately, if everything goes perfect and with big South American competition or the war gets straightened out. You could see balance sheets swell.”

Longer term he’s watching acreage in June and weather but still thinks there is downside risk.

“In the $4.00 to $4.20 are on Dec corn from our standpoint and maybe even $3.80 to $4.00. Soybeans, we think we have more of a target in this $10.00 to $10.50 area, and maybe $9.80 to $10.00. We’ll just see as farmers aren’t going to want to sell it.”

So Roose says the market is in risk management territory.

Weather and Rain Chances
The extended forecast has some rain for the Corn Belt which would help some of the dry areas, especially in the West.

“It looks like a bulls eye that we’re going to have in the gut slot of the Corn Belt. Some timely rains, if you will, you know, getting a little dry for some of the people that just planted. Who’s going to be shut out yet? Looks like western Texas, Oklahoma, parts of far western Nebraska and such. But a lot of these dry areas are going to get hit too in the Dakotas and Nebraska, so that’s good,” he adds.

Wheat Falls as Well
Wheat futures were also lower on spillover from lower soybean and corn markets. The soft red winter wheat contracts hit new highs then reversed lower and scored a hook reversal.

Does the market also have the winter wheat production cuts all factored into prices?

Roose says the market may have priced in the shock of the 54 year low in the U.S. crop with the limit up close on Tuesday.

“I think the real issue when you look at the demand side of the market are the importer or the exporters are, you know, just really not interested here at this price. We’re just priced out of the market is the real issue on the wheat,” he explains.

Kansas Wheat Tour Results Better Than Expected
The Kansas Wheat Quality Council Tour wrapped up on Thursday but the daily yield summaries came in a bit better than the trade had expected says Roose.

“Sometimes we dial in, you know, a lot worse than we think and its starting to show up a little bit better. So, you know, that’s probably, you know, another factor. You know, we always say, I always say this, Michelle. The numbers are the numbers, but it’s more important how you react to the numbers. And certainly, so far, the market’s told us that we’ve got plenty dialed into the market,” he adds.

Cattle Fall in Disappointing Finish
Cattle futures were higher on Wednesday on the heels of record cash and continued to see buying on Thursday morning. However, the market could not sustain those gains and ended lower which was disappointing.

“Kind of what I call a disconnect. You know, we’re watching the supply side of the market. And of course, the numbers just aren’t there. Now that said. I think this front end cattle market is bloated. I think that we have bigger numbers coming at us than we may think. We’ll see over the next 30 days. I think we put more weight on these cattle and consequently we’ve got a bunch of numbers coming at us,”

Record Cash Cattle
It was still discouraging consider the record cash trade in the North from $265 to $268, the volume in the South at $260 to $262.

“The market couldn’t really respond again here to follow that up.”

He thinks beef demand is still in question as the boxed beef rally has stalled out and the majority of the best demand is fading.

Still this has been a cash led market and it will continue that way he says.

“So the futures can only go down so far. The basis is already a little bit wide here right now,” he adds.

Lean Hogs Stumble
Despite the lower price of pork compared to beef the hog market can’t seem to get any traction or find a bottom.

Roose says the numbers are bigger than the market anticipated. “Of course, a lot of the premium we put in when we went up to that $112, $113 for the summer months was that the big disease issues, they’re there, but I think numbers may be a little bit bigger. Let’s give it a chance to see if these seasonals can kick in and demand can pick up,” he adds.

Don’t Rush The Replant: Field Conditions And ROI Outweigh The Calendar

Thu, 14 May 2026 20:26:02 GMT

Corn and soybean growers facing slow emergence, shrinking planting windows and cool soils shouldn’t reach for the replant button too quickly, say University of Wisconsin’s Harkirat Kaur and Shawn Conley. They emphasize that field conditions, stand uniformity and return on investment matter more than the date on the calendar.

When damage occurs in corn, the first step is to diagnose what happened to cause the loss, advises Harkirat Kaur, Extension corn specialist at the university.

“Are you seeing stand loss because of seedling issues? Was the hybrid vigor not there? Is there waterlogging? Those things are important to understand, because replanting a field which is damaged is still an extra cost that we incur,” Kaur says.

She believes stand uniformity often matters more than the plant population for corn.

“A uniform stand at a low population is better than having a stand which is at a higher population but has quite a few gaps in it,” she says. “No. 1, it will impact your overall nutrient uptake for the entire field. Secondly, it will also impact your overall operations as you move further into the season.”

Calendar date, surviving stand quality and hybrid maturity all have to be weighed together in the decision.

“If you are looking at a surviving stand which is less than 70% of what your original target was, then you might want to go for a replant,” Kaur says. “But is that replant going to be this soon? It depends if the field is clearly showing no signs of recovery, showing a complete loss of uniformity across the field.”

In many cases, she recommends patience – especially when a frost or hail event enters the picture.

“It is always good to give the crop some time to recover,” she advises, particularly when hail strikes while the growing point is still below ground. “Most of the corn plants in May or early June have their growing point still under the ground (in Wisconsin), and those plants often have the ability to recover from these stresses.”

Running The Corn Replant Math

To frame the replant decision, Kaur walks through a replant return-on-investment scenario for a southern Wisconsin field that was planted May 5 with a full-season 113-day hybrid.

Extension corn specialist Harkirat Kaur shared this example of when replanting would deliver more ROI than sticking with the existing crop. The decision to replant would make sense, depending on how many acres would be able to deliver this financial advantage.

(Harkirat Kaur)

In her example, a stress event drops the stand from a target of 34,000 plants to around 18,000 — roughly 60% to 65% of the original population. That moves expected yield from about 215 bushels per acre to a range of 130 to 160 bushels, or roughly $602 per acre in gross income at current price assumptions.

Replanting later in May means giving up some yield potential to fewer heat units, but it may still pencil out.

“With replanting, the yield potential comes down to about 80% to 85%, which brings the number to approximately around 180 bushels per acre,” she says. “Then we need to account for the replant cost — the cost for new seed, the cost for your fuel, and the time that you’re spending.”

In her example, even after those expenses, the net return on replanting comes out ahead.

“That would bring us to a net of around $675 per acre,” Kaur says. “We are having anywhere around a net advantage of replanting of about $70 to $72 per acre, which could be a bigger number when we are looking at hundreds of acres.”

Still, she frames replant as a decision of last resort.

“Replanting only when the ROI is likely to be positive is critical,” she says. “Keeping ROI over all the operation in mind is the No. 1 thing.”

Nitrogen, Natural Gas And Timing

Kaur also links replant timing to nitrogen management and volatile natural gas markets.

“Natural gas is very critical for agricultural production, because it drives the production of our nitrogen fertilizers,” she says. “When we are looking at overall gas price instability, it reflects in our agricultural cost anywhere between two to eight weeks when it is happening at the global scale.”

Before deciding to replant, she urges farmers to know where they stand on nitrogen availability.

“We need to ensure how much nitrogen is already in the ground and how much nitrogen is still available to be used for the crops,” she says. “Doing another soil analysis might be of use. It might help save the cost of applying more nitrogen, or also putting in hours of applying that fertilizer.”

Kaur says split nitrogen application strategies become more valuable in a tough economic year like this.

“Protecting existing nitrogen investment is critical,” she says. “If you (can), plan for a sidedress. Then replanting before the sidedress is something that can help you save some of your time and also some of your money.”

For Soybeans, ‘Don’t Change Anything’ — Except Row Width

On the soybean side, Shawn Conley, Extension soybean and small grains specialist at the University of Wisconsin, offers his take on next steps at this point in the season.

“In short, basically, don’t change anything except maybe narrow your soybean rows up if you can,” he says. “

Most of his university research plots across Wisconsin are already planted, though some beans are still sitting in dry soil waiting on a rain.

Conley adds that he expects Wisconsin farmers to plant roughly a half-million more soybean acres in 2026 than they did in 2025, based on current projections and spring conditions.

Prioritize Corn Now, Finish Beans After

For growers juggling both crops, Conley says the yield penalty curve has flipped solidly in favor of corn.

“At this time of the growing season, where we are sitting in May, we’re really in this significant decline in yield penalty for delayed planting in corn versus where we are with soybean,” he explains.

“We’re obviously losing yield by delaying soybean planting, too, but not to the extent that we are with corn,” he adds. “It pains me to say, and I tweeted this out last week — it’s time to prioritize corn planting, if possible, if the ground is fit.”

His message to farmers: get corn wrapped up, then come back and finish soybeans.

Seeding Rate And Replant Thresholds

Conley does not see a need to bump soybean seeding rates for now, even with cooler conditions.

His economic analysis shows little payoff to cutting rates aggressively at this point, once seed cost and yield are both considered.

Optimal seeding rate for planting would be 100,000 seeds per acre, even in mid-May, according to Shawn Conley. “But, that really doesn’t take into effect delayed canopy and management of waterhemp,” he notes. For replanting considerations, Conley says he tells farmers that unless they have under 60,000 plants per acre and actively growing, his advice is “don’t do anything.”

(Shawn Conley)

“Optimal seeding rate would be 100,000 seeds per acre, even in this May 13 timeframe,” he notes. “But, that really doesn’t take into effect delayed canopy and management of waterhemp.”

In high weed pressure, Conley says most farmers should stay with about 140,000 seeds per acre unless they have a “very strong weed management plan on the waterhemp.”

On replant decisions, his threshold is clear.

“Generally, what we tell farmers is that unless you have under 60,000 plants per acre and actively growing, don’t do anything,” Conley says. “Don’t even touch that crop.”

If stands fall below that mark, he recommends what he calls a repair plant, not a full reset.

“If it is under 60,000, just do a repair plant, which means you don’t start over from scratch,” he says. “You just go into that field, set the planter at an angle so as not to run over or disturb any of those existing growing plants, and then just plant into your existing stand.”

“The population that’s in the field right now has a higher yield potential than anything you’d be putting in the ground today,” he adds.

Consider Row Spacing

Row spacing is the one area where Conley does advise a change for mid-May and later planting — when farmers have the equipment to do it.

“As our yields have increased due to earlier planting, the yield difference between wide rows and narrow rows shrank,” he says. “However, as we get into lower yield potential — i.e., later planting — then we see those yield differences still remain.”

That shows up particularly in 30-inch rows planted in mid-May and later.

“The longer it takes from planting date to when those soybeans hit R3, the smaller the yield difference between row spacings,” he explains. “Because we’re delayed planting, the number of days between when you plant today and when you get to R3 is going to be in that 50- to 60-day range. You’re going to see a yield penalty if you stick with the 30-inch rows.”

“If you have the capacity — you still have a 15-inch row planter and you maybe haven’t been utilizing that — I think you need to be able to break that out and use that for finishing off your soybean planting,” he says.

American Soybean Association Clears Up E15 Stance as Senate Debate Intensifies

Thu, 14 May 2026 18:42:06 GMT

The House vote to expand year-round E15 on Wednesday should have been a clean policy victory lap for ethanol supporters. Instead, it’s become a multi-layered debate involving competing economic models, social media confusion, and an increasingly complicated Senate runway that may determine whether the win in the House actually translates into law.

The House narrowly passed legislation Wednesday allowing year-round sales of E15, 218 to 203, marking a major win for ethanol advocates and corn growers. But that bill also included reallocation of Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs), which some groups say made the bill more complicated than just a straight bill that would clear the way for year-round sales E15.

But even as supporters celebrate, the conversation around what’s actually in the bill, and who benefits most, has only intensified.

And according to the American Soybean Association, much of the online backlash in recent days is rooted in a misunderstanding of the legislation itself.

“We Support Year-Round E15. 100%.”

ASA CEO Stephen Censky told Farm Journal the organization is not opposed to year-round E15.

“Absolutely. We have always supported year-round E15. We think it’s positive,” Censky says.

But Censky argues the social media controversy stems not from the ethanol provision itself, but from additional language in the House bill that deals with Small Refinery Exemptions (SREs) under the Renewable Fuel Standard.

“It’s those other provisions that provide exemptions to small refineries that undermine that positivity,” he says, also noting that multiple independent analyses suggest those provisions could shift the broader farm economy in less favorable ways.

ASA Statement on House Passage of Year-Round E15 Legislation: pic.twitter.com/bbewbGSF6c
— American Soybean Association (@ASA_Soybeans) May 13, 2026

FAPRI Study Adds Fuel Ahead of Vote

One of those studies came from the University of Missouri’s Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI). Just ahead of the House vote, new modeling from FAPRI added fresh insight into the debate show that when you add in the reallocation of SREs, the House bill is a net negative for agriculture.

The analysis found that year-round E15 alone is relatively modest in its near-term market impact, largely shifting demand between corn and soybeans. But when paired with changes to Small Refinery Exemptions, the economic picture becomes more complicated.

“It takes what is really a trade-off between corn and beans and makes it an overall negative for both what the government spends and for the farm income for the sector,” says Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI.

NCGA Disputes Modeling Assumptions

After the report was released on Tuesday, groups like the National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) pushed back on the recent economic analysis by both FAPRI and the CBO.

NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson argued that key assumptions in the studies underestimate both policy strength and adoption speed.

“Year-round E15 saves drivers money at the pump, supports America’s corn farmers and improves energy security for our country,” she says, adding that the group’s own modeling shows stronger outcomes for farm income.

ASA Pushes Back on “Corn vs. Soy” Narrative

Even though controversy swirled on social media, claiming ASA’s lack of support for the House version of the bill shows a split between corn and soybean groups, Censky rejects the idea.

“No, I mean, again, I think that comes from a misunderstanding or maybe too simplistic of looking at things,” he says. “We support year-round E15, so does NCGA.”

He points to shared support from the NCGA, while emphasizing that the disagreement centers on refinery exemption language, not ethanol blending policy itself.

“It’s those other provisions (SREs) that were attached to that bill that we have the problems with,” he says,.

Senate Outlook: A Far More Complicated Road Ahead

If the House vote represented momentum, the Senate introduces a much higher degree of uncertainty .

Washington analyst Jim Wiesemeyer says the House approval was still a meaningful breakthrough for ethanol supporters, but the path forward now runs into procedural hurdles, committee jurisdiction battles and a Senate math problem that doesn’t easily resolve.

“Senate passage remains uncertain,” Wiesemeyer notes, pointing to the fact that Clean Air Act authority tied to E15 summer sales rests largely with the Senate Environment and Public Works Committee, not the Senate Ag Committee.

Wiesemeyer reports while Senate Majority Leader John Thune (R-S.D.) has expressed support for including year-round E15 in a broader farm bill effort, the jurisdiction split complicates the path forward. EPW Chair Shelley Moore Capito has supported compromise language similar to the House bill, but without the more controversial SRE-related reforms. Ranking Member Sheldon Whitehouse (D-R.I.), meanwhile, is expected to oppose expansion efforts tied to ethanol policy under Clean Air Act authority.

That leaves Senate Ag Chairman John Boozman (R-Ark.) in a key position, but without full control over the underlying regulatory levers.

But even Boozman was clear after the Senate vote that the House version could face resitance in teh Senate. Boozman, who akso serves as Chairman of the House Ag Committee, telling Politico the House version may not have enough support to make it through the upper chamber, saying after the vote, “I think we have a good chance to pass an E15 bill. I don’t know if it will be that one.”

Senate Ag Chair John Boozman tells @politico the House-passed E15 bill doesn’t seem likely to survive the Senate:

“I think we have a good chance to pass an E15 bill. I don't know if it will be that one.”

Reiterates he and other Rs have small and medium size refinery issues https://t.co/4suzybfgrr
— Meredith Lee Hill (@meredithllee) May 13, 2026

Even if a path emerges through committee, Wiesemeyer notes that a stand-alone bill would still need 60 votes for cloture on the Senate floor, an uphill climb given opposition from refining-state senators and lawmakers concerned about emissions, fuel volatility, and air-quality standards.

That bipartisan resistance could force supporters to consider alternative strategies.

One option, according to Wiesemeyer, is something increasingly discussed in Washington: attaching year-round E15 to a must-pass legislative vehicle later this year, such as a broader energy package, government funding bill, or end-of-year omnibus-style agreement, where controversial policy riders are often resolved in larger negotiations.

For now, Wiesemeyer’s bottom line mirrors the broader tone emerging from both the economic analysis and the policy debate: the House delivered a meaningful win for ethanol supporters, but in the Senate, the path forward is anything but settled, and the final outcome is still very much in play.

Where the Uncertainty Really Sits

Much of the debate now centers on variables that remain unresolved: how quickly E15 is adopted, how EPA interprets Renewable Fuel Standard obligations, and how aggressively Small Refinery Exemptions are implemented in practice.

Those unknowns, analysts say, will ultimately determine whether the legislation is a modest reshuffling of crop demand or a more meaningful shift in long-term farm income trends.

Grains Tank on Lack of China Ag Purchases: Cattle Rally on Record Cash

Thu, 14 May 2026 15:36:18 GMT

Grains were sharply lower on Thursday morning, with cattle higher and hogs seeing losses.

Grains Fall on Lack of China Ag Purchases
The grain markets were sharply lower Thursday morning with soybeans seeing 30-cent losses on disappointment the China summit has not produced any agricultural purchase agreements.

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says, “Bessent came out with a comment earlier this morning and said that China’s needs are taken
care of as far as the soybeans are concerned. And I think that really sent the shockwave through the soybeans starting that market to trend a little bit lower. That spilled over, you know, cotton was lower. And we’re also seeing it hit the corn and the wheat market as well.”

No Old Crop Soybean Purchases From China
So it looks like China will not be buying any of the additional 8 million metric tons of old crop soybeans President Trump posted about on February 4.

“We were hoping that we could see, you know, there was talk about that 8 million metric ton more, you know, that we heard in this winter. We were hoping that we would see at least a portion of that come for soybeans. And of course, now with it kind of slipping and looking like there’s not going to be anything, that they’re going to kind of stay with their original agreement. That kind of has taken some of the wind out of the sails.”

Martinson says the hope is the U.S. will still get some type of signed agreement with China and they will commit to the 25 million metric ton a year they talked about in late October.

“I mean, with this meeting right now, it would be nice to get that in writing so that it’s clarified and then we can basically then feel comfortable with it. Now, Trump did invite China’s president to come to the U.S. in September, I think September 24th. Maybe that’ll be a trade deal done there. But, you know, this is kind of dragging out. This has already been almost, you know, nine months since they started talking. And it would be nice to get the trade deal actually in ink.”

The talks are not completely done and there was a flash sale Thursday morning for 9.3 million bu. of soybeans to unknown destinations, so maybe there is some business from China.

Weekly Exports Anemic
Meanwhile, the weekly export totals showed a marketing year low for old crop soybeans at only 3.8 million bu. while corn was at 27.0 million and wheat was at 4.9 million.

Martinson says, “I think, you know, corn came in also at like a 14-week low or something like that. So, I mean, yeah, they were dismal. I mean, we’re getting to the end of the marketing year for wheat, so you kind of expect to see exports start to slow down in that market and switch to the new crop. But for corn and soybeans, we would like to continue to see that move forward. And we have had a pretty good run up in prices, and that probably slowed down some of the sales.”

The weekly export report also indicated no new soybean business to China either old crop or new crop.

Martinson says there is still time for new crop sales. “We have not, you know, and most were anticipating we wouldn’t see them come in and start buying the new crop until probably the August, September timeframe. So that kind of leads into why we’d like to see a signed trade deal now, but that might coincide more with the September meeting if China’s, if Xi does accept Trump’s invitation.”

Grains Take Out Chart Support
Grain markets were seeing some support areas violated on Thursday morning with July corn under the 20-day moving average and July soybeans were below the psychological $12 mark.

“One day it doesn’t make a trend, but, you know, we see follow through tomorrow likely and that would then start to make us wonder a little bit that maybe we have rolled over. We close below $12 and we don’t see the market pop above it again tomorrow. Then I think the party’s basically over for the growing season. We could likely see some pressure until we see the crops done planting and we start to see a little bit more weather issues during the growing season,” he explains.

Corn was flirting with support on the July contract at the 20-day moving average and he says the market could hold up better than soybeans because it did not have as big a rally coming into the China summit.

December corn and November soybeans had just made new highs and new high closes for the move on Wednesday so the reversals there are also disappointing.

“I mean we’ve actually been seeing the new crop push pretty good because we have some concerns about the growing season you know you know and we kind of saw that in the USDA’s report on Tuesday you know and corn stocks are comfortable, but if we see some sort of a hiccup in
production, whether acres come down or yield gets adjusted, you know, things can get to be fairly, you know, get a little tighter pretty quick. With soybeans, you know, we lose two bushels off the national average yield, which is estimated at 53 record again. You know, then all of a sudden we cut our stocks in half.”

House Passes E15 Bill
The House also passed the year round E15 bill yesterday and it now goes to the Senate. If it passes will it be a big demand push for corn?

Martinson says it is positive but it will take a while to see a big impact on corn demand.

“A lot of the plants are pushing capacity or close to it. You know, we’ve got a few that are expanding there. You know, this year they’re doing the construction to expand. Overall, you know, it’s going to take a while to get to the point where we could do an E15 blend year round consistently. I don’t think we’ll get to an E15. I think we could get probably to an E12, E13 as kind of be the national blend and that would still chew through a few more bushels. I mean, we probably would still add about a billion bushels to the corn demand at that point,” he adds.

EU Rejects Argentina Meal
Soybean meal was up over $10 on Wednesday on news the EU had rejected another cargo of Argentine meal on quality and genetic concerns.

However, that was a short lived event and Martinson says it won’t be a big market mover unless it happens more consistently.

“I do think it’ll help increase some of our meal demand in the U.S. as EU, which is now on a timeline to get their trade deal done with the U.S. I think that’ll help kind of calm some of the nerves on that.”

Production Cuts Priced Into Wheat Market?
The wheat market was lower on Wednesday and seeing follow through selling with spillover from the lower soybean and corn markets.

However, USDA’s big production cut in the WASDE by 36% on the hard red winter wheat crop may be factored in according to Martinson.

“It was a shock to the market and they weren’t anticipating it to be that big of a cut. You know, what was interesting is that with USDA making that big of a cut, you know, there’s going to be more cuts coming forward, you know, coming in later months because they normally don’t make that big of a one and then not follow through with something. So I do think we’ll still see that crop get trimmed. But at this point, you know, I don’t know if it matters. I think, you know, with corn and beans kind of coming under pressure, it’s going to pull wheat with it.”

Pressure should be limited though by the tighter new crop ending stocks.

Demand Destruction
The other key is are pricing getting high enough it is choking off demand?

He says, “What was interesting is when you looked at the world numbers from Tuesday, every single major exporting country is cutting
production or seeing a reduction in their crop size going into 2026. So what we saw as a run up in 25 is coming back out of the production side in 26. So everybody is looking at cutting back on production.”

Kansas Wheat Tour Results
Day two of the Wheat Quality Council Tour in Kansas showed a yield of 39.3 versus 53.3 BPA last year.

However, the results of the first two days have failed to move the market.

He says, “It seems like, you know, it’s even hard to find them in the press, you know, because it’s, you know, it seems like everybody’s attention has just been so focused on, you know, the E15 year round and then also with the China-US summit that we’ve kind of put this wheat quality tour to the back burner.”

Cattle Futures Rally With Record Cash
The cattle futures were higher Wednesday and seeing follow through buying Thursday with record cash trade breaking.

The North came in at $265 to $268 live and $405 to $410 dressed. The South traded $260 to $262.

“Cash is king. I mean, that’s what’s leading the market. That keeps increasing and that keeps bringing the market back or kind of breathing life into it. We had a little bit of a concern earlier in the week with the idea that we were going to lower the import tariffs and increase imports from other countries to kind of bring the price down for the average consumer,” he adds.

But higher cash trade rallied the board and consumer demand has stayed strong...so far.

“I mean you look at the report on Tuesday the per capita consumption of beef is expected to increase,” he adds.

China to Register Beef Plants?
Conflicting news wire reports out of China indicated they had agreed to re-register 400 U.S. .beef processing plants.

“They were ready to do it, but then an hour later they rejected it and reversed their decision to register them. You know, at this point, I don’t know if we’ll see much exports anyway, because our exports actually have been decreasing for this year because of the higher cost. And I think if they’re going to import some protein, they’re going to import something that’s a little cheaper than beef is right now.”

Row Crops See Slight Gains Wednesday, Cattle Soar on Record Cash

Thu, 14 May 2026 01:44:35 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended slightly higher, with wheat lower. Cattle and hogs both soared.

Row Crops See Slight Gains
Corn and soybeans were slightly higher on Wednesday with fund buying tied to inflation concerns and some optimism heading into the China summit.

Sam Hudson with Cornbelt Marketing says corn got help from limit up moves in the wheat market after the WASDE but Wednesday traded its own fundamentals.

“USDA data paints a picture where we don’t have a lot of downside, you’re looking at a trend yield, you’re looking at pretty solid acres here. And with that, we still see stocks to usage go backwards about 1% year over year. And there’s just not a lot of breathing room for any errors. I think the fertilizer aspect of it also paints, you know, the idea that you could actually lose a few more acres at the end of June. So with all that going on, it’s just it’s hard. to get tied to a short position, especially when you continue to make new highs. And it was nice to see us press through the $5 mark, but not fade it off real hard. We’re going to probably find some support here now at that level until we can learn about what some of these geopolitics do into the weekend.

December Corn Makes New Highs
December or new crop corn made new highs on Wednesday and posted new high closes. So how much higher could the market rally?

Hudson says, “Well, the $5.08 to $5.13 zone is kind of one I’ve been watching and waiting for here for quite a while. I would say this is a successful more or less test of that. If you can exceed those levels, though, Michelle, and continue to keep a bid in that wheat market and optimism on soybeans and energy markets in general, then I think it’s possible you could track up to that $5.45 to $5.65 zone.”

However, he thinks it will be more of a grind to get to that level with plenty of old crop corn available.

“Demand is big, but we’ve got enough supply to service it. I think where you really get concerned is if you have to pull back. that supply number, whether it’s in acres or yield here down the road,” he says.

E15 Optimism
Some lightly buying could have been tied to hopes the House would pass a year-round E15 bill in the House on Tuesday afternoon.

“There’s certainly plenty of opinions to be had on that but it’s a lot of hype. I don’t know if it matters a ton for demand. I’ve probably been in that camp for quite a while. The adoption process, the pace of that is all filtered back into that. And my issue with it is, you know, whenever we get legislated demand, I’m always wondering about what’s coming along with that in the fine print. You know, thus far, over the last two or
three years, I think the biggest growth and benefit I think that we’ve seen without that is the fact that other countries around the world have adopted it at a much faster pace and that really helps facilitate our exports, especially in an energy pinch like this.

When Does Weather Become a Factor in the Corn Market?
So when will the corn market stop chasing headlines and start trading weather? Hudson says seasonally the market is getting into that window but so far there is no threat.

“It’s really hard to hurt the corn crop between now and, you know, July 1st at this point. It seems like we’re putting that cold weather in the rear view. You might have a few places that are still struggling to get stuff replanted and kind of filtered in here. But on the whole, you know, it’s only the 13th, 14th of May here. We typically plant our best corn, at least in central Illinois, during that time frame anyways. And so I don’t think there’s a lot of concern unless you go cold again or if we’re still looking at persistent rains for the next two weeks,” he says.

The Western Corn Belt is seeing some dry conditions but he says states like Nebraska have irrigation to get the crop up and going.

Soybean Market Awaits China Summit
The soybean market has been trading optimism of a China deal out of the summit this week for some time now. So what are the bulls looking for in the deal and what is already programmed into soybean prices at this point?

Hudson downplayed the meeting. “You know, I don’t know if it’s going to be a big deal as what we want to make it out to be. And the reason I
think that is I don’t I think you could have a lot of frameworks for some of those deals, especially when it’s pertaining to soybeans and some of these ag commodities like that. But we need to see details to see a lot of follow through buying. You probably need to see details,”

He says with the gains in the soybean market going into the meeting there is 30 to 50 cents of risk on the knee jerk reaction if the meeting doesn’t go well.

“But in the same breath, if that meeting doesn’t go well, it probably means you don’t have any more progress in the Middle East. And that’s going to keep our energy markets supported and that inflationary aspect still well alive.”

Soybean Meal Rally Supports Soybeans
Soybean meal was up more than $10 on Wednesday with some unwinding of meal/oil spreads which Hudson says is affecting soy processing margins and company stock.

“ADM would be a perfect example. Some of these biofuel companies, keep in mind the hedges they have to hold during all this. A lot of these margins were locked in initially when we shut the oil flow off from Venezuela, those margins improved. And ever since then, they’re just using their profits to feed their margin calls. I think those profits are going to be even wider here as you get into the fall months and they have new supplies to capture that on,” he explains.

Crush margins had been running at record levels at soy processing plants across the Midwest but especially in Illinois.

November Soybeans to New Highs, July Eyes March Highs
The November soybean contract made new highs on Wednesday and posted a new high close, while July soybeans are still trying to reach the March high of just over $12.50.

Hudson says there have been no soybean shortages yet requiring a push in prices.

“There’s plenty of supply to meet the demand. Those crushers can’t get it in and crush it fast enough. In the meantime, you know, if China wants to buy beans, I still think if it happens it’s going to end up on the new crop balance sheet. I don’t see them knee jerking to buy any old crop beans. And let’s face it, they haven’t really committed to a lot of new crop. So even if we get a positive announcement here, again, you have to look at the details and the volumes of it. And I just don’t know if we’re going to have all that this early in the game.”

Wheat Eases After Limit Up Moves
Winter wheat futures made more new highs early Wednesday still trading the 54 year low in production printed in the WASDE.

However, the market ended lower on a combination of profit taking and some farmer selling.

“We probably all knew this was coming anyways but I don’t think anyone knew the USDA was going to make early adjustment like this
and this instantly has me thinking and probably a lot of other people that you’re going to continue to see additional supply cuts and the first question I have is if the abandonment is going to be that high where do those acres go,” he says.

Options include milo or soybeans and that could impact the acreage numbers at the end of June.

Markets Watch Kansas Wheat Tour Results
The market also faded day one results from the Kansas wheat tour which came in at 38.3 bu. per acre compared to 50.5 bu. for the Day 1 estimate in 2025.

While the tour reinforced USDA’s estimate and there were plenty of visuals to go with it.

“Some of those pictures are just horrendous and just, you know, underscores how bad things are.”

Wheat Pausing Before Next Leg Higher
So was the wheat market just pausing to get more bullish information before taking the next let higher?

Hudson thinks it is possible for wheat to move higher but it is likely to happen in the deferred contracts.

“Because think about acres for next year. You know, not only, you know, we raise wheat all around the globe simultaneously. That’s one of the first markets you could lose acreage somewhere in like a third world country if they can’t get fertilizer or the cost structure gets too high.”

Cotton Hits New Contract Highs
Cotton futures were back higher on Wednesday and nearing the 90 cent mark but will the market get there?

Hudson says, “At this point, why not? You know, we’re looking at two year highs now at this point. I think you’re, you know, this is two prong.
I think you’re looking for more acres, but also the energy pinch that we’re seeing, you know, makes cotton a lot cheaper compared to a lot of this polyester we’re wearing anymore. All those leggings out there.”

Cattle Correct
Cattle futures were higher on corrective buying and with help from higher cash and easing fear about the administration lowering the TRQs on beef imports to increase supplies.

Hudson says, “These headlines took some of the length and took the edge off, but the cash markets are putting it right back in.”

Still he thinks it will be difficult to keep the funds in the market as they will lack confidence in being long with if the administration starts talking
about lowering beef prices again. Funds were still long over 138,000 contracts as of last Tuesday.

He points out that the fundamentals have not changed.

Cash at Record Levels
Cash trade had already developed early in the week at $260 in the South and bids were renewed at higher levels while the futures were trading.

After the board closed the North saw cash trade ranging from $263 to $265 late and dressed prices as high as $410.

Hogs See Short Covering
The lean hog futures were also higher seeing short covering after hitting new lows for the move on Tuesday.

Hudson says the market got oversold. “Things got a little cheaper than I would have expected. Maybe I had a bit of a bias there but with the capitulation you saw on the chart today, maybe that’s enough to put a bottom in this market, at least for a little while until we see how some of this geopolitics play out that we talked about.”

The back months also continue to price in disease concerns and are chasing the higher priced beef market.

Row Crops Extend Gains Wednesday: Is a Bull Market Emerging?

Wed, 13 May 2026 16:25:01 GMT

Grains were mostly higher early Wednesday. Livestock started mixed then turned higher as well.

Has Wheat Priced in Production Cuts?
After limit up closes on Tuesday, the winter wheat market started mixed Wednesday under expanded limits.

Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says futures were pausing to digest USDA’s big production cut on winter wheat to the lowest level since 1972.

He thinks additional upside is limited as the market has factored the cuts into the market. “I think for the time being, yeah, it’s priced in. We’re struggling to get the European wheat complex to follow along. I think we’re going to need some support from that market to extend this rally on the U.S. wheat side.”

Kansas Wheat Tour Results
Meanwhile the Wheat Quality Council is holding their annual tour through Kansas this week with a summary on Thursday. The first day of the tour, showed a 38.3 bushel per acre yield versus 50.5 last year.

That surprised Gieseke. “I mean 38 isn’t too far off from the five-year average closer to 45. It’s just been extremely dry, I mean it started out hot and low moisture and then you throw in a frost and a freeze and now it’s still staying dry. So, I would have expected a bigger deeper cut than you know six to seven bushels.”

Abandonment rate will be the big key he says especially with higher diesel costs providing little incentive to harvest the crop, even with higher wheat prices.

“Higher diesel costs. I mean, that’s that’s something that the farmer is going to get charged with fuel surcharges. We all know feed trucks are charging fuel surcharges and anything with transportation is going to be higher input costs. If you have a marginal wheat crop, I just kind of really question how much they’re going to be anticipating going to get it,” he explains.

Global Wheat Numbers
Digging into global wheat numbers in the WASDE he was looking at the data on Australian from the Foreign Ag Service regarding 2026 production and Canada.

“They were going to cut production in Australia due to lack of fertilizer or diesel they accounted for some of that but more so they the bigger side of the cuts that they made for the 26 crop was due to weather shifts accounting for El Nino. The WASDE actually did a pretty good job of funneling that into yesterday’s report. I think the Foreign Ag Service cut Australia production about 7 million metric ton year on year. I believe the WASDE cut it about six. So they did a good job of incorporating that into yesterday’s report. Canada actually also got cut. Foreign Ag Service also cut Canada’s production here beginning of April. So they did a good job of accounting for that in yesterday’s report.”

Corn Trading Higher, Global Stocks Tightest Since 2013
The WASDE did not provide much bullish fodder on the domestic balance sheets with new crop ending stocks at 1.957 billion bu. However, the global stocks were down 19.4 MMT from last year says Gieseke.

“I think the price trend will continue to push higher here from a world perspective that was the real story yesterday. I think it’s the stocks to use number once again we have to account for demand when we talk about total supplies here on grain moving forward because demand has increased so much on all these commodities with these lower prices. So, I mean a 21.1% world stocks to use number is as tight as it’s been since going back to 2018, which if you remember that’s pre-China finding 60 million metric ton of corn in their stocks,” he explains.

So, stocks are as tight as it’s been since 2013 and the corn market doesn’t have a ton of wiggle room.

Chart Breakout in Corn
Gieseke thinks the market is on the verge of a bull market or a chart breakout as the front month continuation chart shows higher highs for the last two months.

“I just pull up a monthly continuation chart and I just kind of look at that chart structure and say, you know, a monthly close at $5 or higher is probably going to be that next indicator for us, whether we’re stuck in a range. So the range would be, you know, 2024 low. The 2025 low is actually higher than the 24 low. But if we can get that close above $5, that would be a step in the right direction compared to the 2025 high, which was made last February. A close above $5 on front months would kind of set the stage for that next leg higher here,” he adds.

Corn demand has been strong, especially with record exports but what is the catalyst to get old crop corn above $5 with carryout still over 2.0 billion bu.? Would China business be the key or a weather issue?

“Given the time of year that we’re in, it’s without a doubt going to be supply side. You know how the Brazilian crop finishes off here or you know the Western Corn Belt here is very dry. I know this weather system moving in in the next week we’ll we’ll cover the I states pretty good but you got to remember last year’s crop was ultimately pushed higher because of these the Western Corn Belt actually had some very good yields last year. So, if this dry weather persists it’s going to be a supply lead rally,” he says.

E15 Vote in House
The corn market is supported not only by hopes of China business but the possibility of year-round E15 as the House votes on that bill on Wednesday.

However, Gieseke doesn’t see it as a huge market mover. “I think the market, it’s just going to get muted by everything else going on here this week. I’m not anticipating much of a move from it.”

Soybeans Gear up for China Summit
The soybean market has been gearing up for the China summit for several weeks now. The key will be will agriculture be a focus and it looks that way from the leaders traveling with the President.

“Yeah, it was a powerhouse roster that he brought over there, including the Cargill CEO. You know, today’s this week’s meeting as far as it leads to soybeans I’m not anticipating much more. So, I’m more so continue to watch the just the FOB price in Brazil and how it compares to the U.S. and that spread has closed here the kind of tightened up here the last month or so but the trend on both of those prices that continue to be higher. So, to me I think that’s more of a market mover than, you know, today’s or this week’s discussions in China.”

Market Anticipating 25 MMT of Soybeans
Still the market has been gearing up for 25 million metric tons of soybeans to be confirmed by China for this year. So it that isn’t part of the deal will soybeans sell off due to disappointment?

He says, “Only to the extent of Brazilian prices. Brazil is going to continue to be the floor of the market, and we shouldn’t need to be the cheapest soybean in the world. We just need to be competitive with Brazil’s exports. Again, if that spread between U.S. and Brazil stays within 50, 60 cents of each other here during our harvest or if the gap can close, I think we can meet that 25 million metric ton. It’s just way too early to write it off as we won’t.”

July Soybeans Take Out March High?
From a technical standpoint, July beans have not taken out the March highs although November keeps making some new highs for the move here.

Will July make new highs if China confirms any U.S. soybean business? He says,"There’s a gap on old crop beans in the $12.32 area, interday chart. So if we close that, that’d be a good check in the right direction.”

How high could November soybeans climb? “I mean, as far as new crop beans, $12.30 is going to be an area of interest for us to start hedging
some more.”

Soybean Oil Rally Stalling?
The soybean market has also rallied on the back of the soybean oil rally and the 60% increase in the RVO levels for biomass based diesel blending volume.

However, Gieseke says that rally is getting mature. “We’re going to date this back to January when it started to break out. A lot of the commodity indexes actually started to break out in January. Soybean oil was kind of the first of the ag sector or the grain sector to start to break out.Technical projection was just that weekly cup and handle formation that we’ve talked about before. It actually met that target here last week. So we’re actually not anticipating too much of a sell -off here in soybean oil. The rally has been extensive, but we’re really looking at meal kind of taking a little more of a leadership role here going forward for the next few weeks.”

Commodity Index Hits 2.5 Year High
The rally in bean oil has been on the heels of the surge in the diesel fuel heating oil and crude oil markets. Retail diesel prices hit record highs on Wednesday and coincide with inflation figures heating up with both the PPI and CPI rising.

So that continues to bring money into the commodities and grain markets.

He says, “The Bloomberg Commodity Index, we tracked that pretty closely. That took out 2022 highs. We really don’t see it slowing down. Typically, it might slow down, but we don’t see that trend reversing yet. To slow that down, you need something like, again, higher interest rates, unemployment picking up some sort of breaking point.”

Start of a Bull Market in Grains?
So do he anticipate money will continue to come into the grains because of that inflation risk and start a bull market like we saw back in 2020 after COVID?

“Yeah. I mean, I don’t see anything from a technical standpoint or monetary standpoint that says it’s short-lived. For right now, I’m just kind of staying out of the way and along for the ride.”

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Crop: Corn, Soybeans See Surprises

Tue, 12 May 2026 22:07:23 GMT

Grains ended higher Tuesday with limit up moves in winter wheat, livestock were mostly lower.

Wheat Limit Up as USDA Slashes Production
Both classes of winter wheat ended limit up on the day as USDA shocked the market with their aggressive production cuts in the May WASDE according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist, StoneX.

USDA lowered wheat yield by 5.8 bu. per acre to 47.5 bu. and lowered all wheat production to 1.561 billion bu. which is below last year by 424 million bu. and the smallest crop since 1972.

Total winter wheat production was pegged at 1.048 billion bu. down 25% from 2025 drug down by a 36% cut to the hard red winter wheat crop.

He thinks production could be cut even further in the future. “I think we’ve seen quite a bit of deterioration here over the last couple of weeks. These are May 1 numbers, so we may see a little bit lower number. Industry tour this week should give us a bigger idea on that.”

Plus, his experience is when USDA makes a big jump on its first estimate, that typically means that there could be more moves coming. “Because they tend to be fairly conservative and don’t want to overshoot. They don’t like correcting back the other way.”

Abandonment is the Key
Suderman says the key is the percent abandonment of winter wheat acres.

“Now, the USDA’s abandonment number is pretty close to what we modeled, but how might high diesel prices affect that? Because as diesel prices increase, they increase the cost of running the combine over those acres, raising the break-even level at which you decide, is it worth actually taking the combine into the field? So we may push that abandonment a little bit higher.”

He thinks for Kansas a 17% abandonment rate is pretty reasonable but it may be much higher in Texas and Oklahoma, maybe Colorado than it will be elsewhere.

How High Do Wheat Prices Rally?
Hard red winter wheat made new highs on Tuesday and closed limit up but how high will prices run? Can futures get above $7.50?

Suderman explains, “Well, the interesting thing about wheat is it doesn’t necessarily trade supply and demand fundamentals so much as it trades headlines and emotions. We saw back in 2010 when there were headlines of fires and drought-stricken Russia, and we doubled the price of Chicago wheat in five weeks and then it came collapsing down. We realized, oh, we traded that story. The fundamentals aren’t that tight after all. So you can just run with emotions and the funds can go with it.”

Plus, he says funds can take wheat prices too far in either direction. “If you get a headline out of Iran saying the war is over type of a thing, you could see a collapse of crude oil really suck the air out of these grain and oil seed markets as well.”

Global Wheat Stocks Fall
Global wheat stocks also fell 4.2 MMT to 275 MMT but could those supplies shrink further with the talk of lower production and yield due to higher fertilizer prices and lower use?

“I think some of it comes down to do we actually see reductions in fertilizer application. One of the things we are seeing is a reduction in area because of high fertilizer and fuel prices. As we go into Argentina and Australia in the Southern hemisphere, we’re there in the middle of planting now. It looks like a 5% to 6% reduction in area.”

Corn Ending Stocks Down Slightly
USDA lowered corn production nearly 1 billion bu. to just under 16 billion bu.

New crop ending stocks were estimated at 1.957 billion bu. which is down 185 million bu. from last season and under the psychological 2.0 billion bu. mark. Still it was above trade estimates.

Suderman says his estimate was lower than that, “I was at 1.833 billion bushels. So I do think there’s some downside to this. But regardless, once you slip below 1.5 billion, that’s when the market starts caring, it wouldn’t take much of a yield drop in order to do that with this acreage.
I do think there’s a chance that we could see a little bit more of an acreage shift from corn to soybeans, maybe another million acres or so, helping to bring that down,”

He also thinks exports could get stronger moving ahead unless Brazil’s crop is further increased and cut U.S. exports.

Global Corn Stocks Fall
The bigger bullish factor is the huge draw down in global supplies in the new crop marketing year.

USDA estimates 277.5 MMT carryout for 2026-27 which is down 19.4 MMT from last season and could continue to decline next year.

“I think this is a pattern that we’re going to see more of the next year is drawing down supplies with high fuel, high fertilizer, increased uses for biofuels. The biofuel story, I think, is one that we’re just starting to tell now, going to use more feedstock,” he explains.

Brazil and Argentina Corn Production Hike
The impressive part was global corn stocks fell despite an increase in the Brazilian and Argentine crop by a total of 10 MMT.

Suderman says, “I think the market’s already priced a lot of that in. USDA just hasn’t put it into its balance sheet yet. So you look at Argentina,
USDA was holding down at 52 million metric tons or far too long. Many private estimates are 64 to 65 million metric tons. I think it’s probably closer to 60 million metric tons. USDA is now at 57. We’re at 58. Brazil could go a little bit higher as well.”

He stresses that Brazil is using a lot more corn for ethanol and is increasing its blend from 30% to 32%.

USDA Cuts Soybean Ending Stocks
USDA lowered old crop ending stocks for soybeans down to 340 million bu. with new crop down to 310 million bu. despite 3.5 million more acres.

Suderman says biofuels demand helped to push the crush figure up to 2.730 billion bushels for 2026-27 and there is a possibility that number could go higher.

“The question is going to be exports. As I said, USDA went up on their exports, so 1.603 billion bushels for exports next year, up 100 million bushels.”

He thinks that’s a stretch. “China only buys about 12 million metric tons. I don’t see them buying the 25 million metric tons because A, these numbers show that we don’t have it and they don’t have the room in their reserve for it. As high prices our beans are relative to Brazil beans, that’s where they would go is in their reserve and they don’t have the room for it.”

So, Suderman predicts China will buy soybeans but 12 MMT or less. “How much less is the question.”

China to Buy Corn and Wheat, Not Soybeans?
USDA in the May WASDE pegged China’s soybean stocks nearly steady, but other crops are expected to see draw downs.

“When you look at their wheat stocks at about a 10-year low, their corn stocks at about 13-year low, could we possibly see wheat and corn in the trade deal rather than all the soybeans everybody’s talking about? I think that’s a real possibility. We should learn that in a couple of days.”

If China only buys 12-13 MMT that is half of what they said they would purchase and that would be a disappointment to the market. So could it weigh on prices?

Suderman says, “I think with a strong biofuel program in the end, we would end up with ending stocks similar to where they are now. And I think domestic demand is what’s really going to be driving it. If they didn’t buy anything, then that would be a problem. If they buy 12 million metric tons, I think that keeps us well balanced in here, particularly with fuel prices staying high, the demand for biofuels.”

He doesn’t expect China to buy cotton as part of the deal because they are able to source those needs from Brazil.

Beef may also be off the table as President Trump wants to keep U.S. prices down especially ahead of the mid term elections.

Cattle Market Fears Imports
The cattle market has been down the last couple of sessions on fears of increased beef imports.

President Trump has backed off his executive order to eliminate the tariff rate quotas on beef imports but the market is not convinced.

He says, “A little over a 26% tariff that Brazil has to pay on what it exports to the United States right now. If you wipe that out, that suddenly drops their beef prices well below where we’re at currently here in the United States and would be expected to significantly increase exports to the United States.”

Suderman says President Trump is focused on bringing down food prices and the CPI data Tuesday did not support that goal.

“We once again saw those food prices being a significant significant contributor to inflation and beef is right at the top of the list there. And so he’s trying to do that ahead of the elections. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see that at all,” he says.

Cattle Market Top?
The administration has also announced stepped up efforts on anti-competitive practices with a DOJ investigation of the big four meat packers.

So is that going to top the market like it did back in October of 2025 and cause fund liquidation?

“I’ve been wrong on that so many times this year. I hate to say it again. It certainly does suggest maybe a near-term top. But every time we expect that, we come back to the reality of tight domestic supplies,” he says.

The consumer is still spending, and the data has really been supporting the consumer continuing to spend he says.

” The question is, is how much we are effectively able to increase the supply with those increased imports. We’re already importing record levels. What’s our capacity for further adding to that? Because it looks like the consumer’s going to continue to buy if we can. significantly increases imports. Then we can see those beef prices come down and we start to see the reduction then in the prices for the live cattle.”

The key is cash and after record prices last week for cattle the packers are already paying $260 and $400 already this week.

Why High GDUs Aren’t Guaranteeing Quick Emergence This Year

Tue, 12 May 2026 20:35:00 GMT

While farmers keep a close eye on the thermometer and their favorite weather app during planting season, Phil Long says the most important metric right now might be the one they can’t see: the temperature beneath the soil surface.

Long, a regional agronomist with Liqui-Grow, says growers in north-central Iowa are reporting sluggish emergence for corn and soybeans. That’s despite the fact the region accumulated roughly 197 Growing Degree Units (GDUs) from April 10 to May 1, outpacing the 30-year average of 121 GDUs.

“It takes about 130 or so GDUs to get corn or beans out of the ground,” says Iowa-based Long. “So why aren’t more crops emerged?”

The discrepancy, he contends, lies in the difference between air GDUs and soil GDUs. While air temperatures are important, seed reacts almost totally to the heat of the soil surrounding it. For a seed to germinate and push through the soil surface, it requires consistent warmth that hasn’t materialized during recent chilly conditions in some areas.

“What’s most important to the corn and beans out there in the ground is soil GDUs,” Long says. “Even corn up to V6 is regulated primarily off the heat in the ground.”

Why Some Crops Have ‘Just Sat There’

The formula for calculating GDUs relies on a base temperature of 50 degrees Fahrenheit and a ceiling of 86 degrees. When nighttime temperatures dip into the 30s, as they have recently in Iowa and parts of the Eastern Corn Belt, the soil temperature can linger in the 40s and 50s. At those levels, the “heat engine” for the seed essentially stalls.

“We’re not getting that soil temperature up there very far,” Long explains. “That does not stack up GDUs very quickly.”

Long notes that along with the chilly weather conditions, two additional factors can act as “buffers” against soil warming: crop residue and cloud cover.

While heavy residue is often a benefit in the heat of July, it can act as an insulator in the spring, preventing the sun from reaching the soil. In some cases, high-residue fields can see a 50% reduction in GDU accumulation compared to conventionally tilled ground, Long notes.

Furthermore, a stretch of overcast days will rob the soil of solar radiation.

“If there’s heavy cloud cover, that can reduce solar radiation by 80%,” Long says. He explains that even on a cool 55-degree day, direct sunlight can push soil temperatures much higher. But persistent clouds have kept the ground locked in a cool cycle.

As planting continues into the heart of May, Long advises farmers to look beyond the air temperature and keep in mind the micro-climate of the seedbed as they plant.

“Although we’re ahead in terms of air temperature GDUs for this year compared to the ‘average’ year, we’re probably behind in terms of those seeds sitting in the ground,” Long says. “That soil GDU is a big factor when it comes to getting crops out of the ground.”

Xi-Trump Summit May Yield Farm Deal, But China Has Limited Soybean Appetite

Tue, 12 May 2026 17:03:37 GMT

China and the United States may reach a farm deal at their summit this week that expands Beijing’s purchases of grains and meat, but market watchers said they did not expect major new soybean purchases beyond what was agreed in a deal last October.

Agriculture is among the less-contentious areas of the bilateral relationship, but the final shape of any deliverables from the May 14-15 summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping remains uncertain just days out, officials, traders and analysts said.

The White House is seeking bigger commitments from Beijing on soybean and other agricultural purchases, said a person familiar with the talks.

“They know it’s something that they need. They know it’s something we want to sell. So, whether it’s at the trip or shortly thereafter is to be seen,” said a senior U.S. official who briefed reporters on the trip, without specifying any products.

More than a dozen CEOs and top executives , including Brian Sikes, chair of U.S. grain trader Cargill, will join Trump on his visit, according to a White House official.

However, traders and analysts said any deal is likely to be limited by what they see as Beijing’s unwillingness to buy more soybeans, the biggest-ticket crop, beyond a commitment made last October , given weak demand and cheap alternatives from Brazil.

Instead, markets are looking for new deals for corn, sorghum and milling wheat as well as beef and poultry, some of which was hinted at during high-level talks in March.

“There’s still some space to strike purchase deals for other major U.S. exports. That could take the form of volume purchase deals for key products like corn and sorghum,” said Even Rogers Pay, director at Beijing-based consultancy Trivium China.

In 2024, before Trump returned to office, China bought roughly $4.5 billion of those products, a sum dwarfed by $12 billion in soybeans.

China’s Ministry of Commerce and Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs did not immediately respond to requests for comment.

Soybean Status Quo

China has dramatically scaled back its reliance on U.S. farm goods since Trump’s first term, sourcing roughly 20% of its soybeans from the U.S. in 2024, the year before he returned to office, down from 41% in 2016.

Last year, China bought just 15% of its soybeans from the U.S.

Markets are awaiting clarity on how China will fulfil last year’s commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans annually until 2028, which would be the most since 2022.

“China hasn’t ever officially confirmed the details of the agreement. It’s also not clear whether the targets apply to calendar years or crop years,” said Pay.

Any confirmation of renewed Chinese demand for U.S. soybeans would likely lift Chicago soybean Sv1 prices, which are already near two-month highs, partly on expectations China will step up purchases.

“When President Trump and Xi meet, we’d be thrilled to see additional purchases from China that would put us closer to the typical amount of exports in a typical year,” said Virginia Houston, director of government affairs for the American Soybean Association, declining to specify a target volume.

(Reporting by Ella Cao, Lewis Jackson and Trevor Hunnicutt in Beijing, Naveen Thukral in Singapore and Heather Schlitz in Chicago; Editing by Sonali Paul)

Grains Rally on War, WASDE, China Meeting: Cattle Hit by Beef Import Fear

Mon, 11 May 2026 21:51:39 GMT

Grain and hog futures ended higher Monday with cattle mostly lower.

Grains Add Risk Premium
Grains markets were higher on Monday adding risk premium tied to the breakdown of the peace talks with Iran over the weekend and higher energy prices.

Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company, says both sides rejected the deal and so funds were buying and as long as crude oil stays at high prices that will bring in inflationary buying.

“I think you move some of those investors from the equity markets to the grain side, one on inflationary concerns, but two, just saying these things are undervalued. We know we have plenty of supplies at the present time but that could change. But let’s just take some money and put over there. And I think that was really the catalyst that it got started. Now we got to see what it takes to get it to go further,” he explains.

Big News Week....Including China Summit
The other factor that is moving the grain markets and bringing in fund buying is optimism about ag purchases as part of this week’s China summit between President Trump and President Xi.

Soybeans have been adding premium heading into the meeting according to Boddicker. “The market always gets excited when President Xi and President Trump are going to get together, knowing great things are going to happen, but we’ll see if it does or not. You know, in the current situation with the Strait of Hormuz closed that might be more of an incentive for China to come in and do some things with the U.S. to try to get some concessions and get that opened back up.”

How Much China Business Priced Into Soybeans?
But how much of the soybean purchase agreements with China is already priced into the soybean market?

Boddicker says, “One would have to think that most of it is. We are here in the seasonal time, on the beans where you put some highs in, but nothing saying you couldn’t have. But when you have these types of summits most of it’s priced in ahead of time, unless there’s some really huge surprise that you’re not thinking of.”

China Buying Other Ag Goods?
The other key is whether or not China buys other ag products beyond soybeans as the grain market is already pricing some of that in as well.

“One ship can keep all afloat sometimes, and I think that’s helping. I guess I wouldn’t be surprised if China did some corn and some wheat in here, but time will tell if they do,” he adds.

Running Into Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans may have stalled out though running into chart resistance on Monday.

Could the market break above those recent highs with some good news from China?

Boddicker says, “I think it’s a possibility. You know, if I were a producer and I didn’t have much done on new crop beans somewhere from here to $12, I would be pricing somewhere whether that be in the cash or in the futures. If I did futures, if I started going back over $12 or $12.60 or so. I’d probably exit that and see where it went because I’d have a breakout at that point. But I think it’s not a bad area to do some things.”

July corn is also nearing the double top from last week at $4.78 1/2 but Boddicker thinks that mark could be retested.

“I think it’s a possibility. After hitting chart resistance you really thought this thing could break back to $4.50 to $4.60 and you went to $4.61, which I think was great support. And that’s a 25, 26 cent break, which would be about right,” he says.

Boddicker thinks the corn market needs to get a supply shock from weather or a demand shock from the China summit to get through overhead resistance.

He probably needs some news to get going in here with the supplies we got to do, whether that’s weather or something out of the China summit in here.

May WASDE Positioning
The grain market was also gearing up for the May WASDE with little change expected in the old crop balance sheets.

The focus will be on the first new crop estimates of the season and the trade is anticipating soybean production to be up 183 million bu. from last year at 4.445 billion bu. due to a 3.5 million acre increase in acreage. Yet, the ending stocks are estimated to be up only 19 million bu. from last year at 364 million.

Corn production could be down over 1 billion bu. from last year with acreage cut nearly 3.5 million against a trendline yield of 183 bu. That brings ending stocks down nearly 200 million bu. to 1.933 billion bu.

Boddicker says that is largely priced into the corn market.

Winter wheat production is expected to fall 200 to 250 million bushels below last year with ending stocks down to 833 million bu.

Boddicker says that is reasonable with the problems in the hard red winter wheat crop.

“I think you get a lot of areas that are dry and that wheat’s really gotten hurt. The next two or three weeks, as you know, is going to be critical. But just where it goes from this point, I’m
not sure. But I think there could be some surprises there. But whether they’re going to bring it out now or later, time will tell us,” he says.

Kansas Wheat Quality Tour
The size of the Kansas wheat crop will at least be determined by scouts on this week’s Wheat Quality Tour but will it move the market?

Boddicker says, “The trade has a lot of that priced in with looking at bad conditions that we’ve seen. We got a little improvement last Monday on the report but could they come back and say, hey, there’s more acres that we’re going to destroy here. That could be the real surprise.”

Exports and Inspections
The corn market saw flash sales on Monday morning of 15 million bu. of corn to Mexico, split between old and new crop. South Korea also bought 5.8 million bu. of corn.

Weekly export inspections were strong on corn at 66.6 million bu. with the year to date total up 30% from last year.

Soybeans export inspection were at 24.1 million bu. which are solid for this time of year, but the total is still 23% below last year.

Wheat export inspections were 18.8 million bu. and now total 840 million bu. which is up 13%.

Boddicker says that data was mostly supportive and reflects a change in attitude by many countries that are stockpiling grain.

“A few months ago, I think we can go back and say that we changed the attitude of that importer to say, I’m no longer going to buy hand to mouth. I better put something in reserve just in case more gets out of hand with the American and Iranian war and other things going on in the world,” he explains.

Cattle Market Hit by Beef Import Hike
Cattle futures were mostly lower except for nearby contracts reversing the strong opening.

The market reacted to President Trump’s Executive Order to suspend tariff-rate quotas on all beef-exporting nations to curb record high beef prices.

Boddicker says, “What can break the camels back? When President Trump came out and said that he’s going to drop the tariffs on Brazilian beef and other countries to get more beef in the U.S.”

He says this caused funds and algorithm traders to again liquidate on concerns that the government is getting involved in trying to get beef prices down at the grocery store.

“We looked at preliminary open interest numbers from the CME this morning were looking like we were down 2,100 contracts, which would have meant long liquidation on Friday on the sell-off. And then when they came up with final numbers, it was a plus 3,900. Again, a 6,000 contract swing indicating there was more new selling on Friday. Something wreaks in Denmark on that much of discrimination or discrepancy between those reports,” he adds.

Cattle Market Topping Action?
However, it is hard to call a top in this type of market he says.

“We’ve seen this action before and every time it’s come back. When we look at some cyclical things, you’re looking for some intermediate term highs in both feeder cattle and fat cattle in May. So could we have done that already? We could. I think only time is going to answer it. But this market, as we all know, is fundamentally is strong but is still headline driven,” he says.

The market also failed to rally on record cash trade which topped at $260 in the North and don’t forget the DOJ probe announcement on Friday.

“The only thing that bugs me on that is what are we going to find out? We’re just getting settlements from the last DOJ probe. What are we going to do different this time than we did last time?”

Hog Bounce
Lean hog futures bounced off the new contract lows scored on Friday. So was this just a one day pop?

Boddicker says he was encouraged the summer months at least held chart support after testing it the last several sessions and it came as cattle futures fell.

Can the continue to market recover?

He says, “It feels like we maybe have the high end for the year but a $5, $6 rally would not be unexpected,”

Soybean Gall Midge Emerges As Top-Tier Threat

Mon, 11 May 2026 20:19:03 GMT

Soybean gall midge is no longer just a curiosity or annoyance for many Midwest farmers. The pest is chewing into yield and profitability for soybean growers across parts of at least seven states – Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota.

Iowa State University Entomologist Erin Hodgson reports the pest’s footprint is significant, present in at least 42% of the 45.4 million acres of soybeans farmers harvested across the seven states in 2025.

“At least 19 million soybean acres are potentially impacted by this pest,” Hodgson says, noting that the pest continues to spread. Eight new counties were confirmed in 2025, with five of those being in Iowa .

According to a recent farmer survey led by University of Nebraska Entomologist Doug Golick, the pest has become a major threat in parts of Nebraska. “In the last year or two, soybean gall midge is approaching as near high of concern as herbicide-resistant weeds for survey respondents,” Golick says.

Since 2018, the soybean gall midge has spread to 185 total counties in seven states, including five new counties in Iowa this past year, according to Erin Hodgson, Iowa State University Extension entomologist and professor.

(Erin Hodgson)

Look For Small Orange Or White Larvae

Damage from the insect starts at the base of the soybean plants, largely out of sight. Adult midges emerge from the ground in May and June, then seek out tiny fissures in young soybean plants near the soil line to lay eggs, according to Thales Rodrigues da Silva, a master’s student at the University of Nebraska–Lincoln.

The larvae cause severe, localized yield losses from 20% to 100% loss along field edges and 17% to 50% reductions in entire fields average under heavy infestation, according to University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Extension. The larvae – small, orange worm-like pests – feed inside the base of the stem, causing plants to wither, die, and lodge (break), with damages sometimes extending 100+ feet into fields. Scouting for the pest should occur after the second trifoliate (V2) growth stage, according to the Crop Protection Network.

This damage in a soybean plant at the soil level shows the result of soybean gall midge larvae feeding.

(University of Nebraska-Lincoln Extension)

Because the pest often feeds along field edges, the damage in affected plants is often mistaken for issues caused by compaction or herbicide injury, according to Stine Seed Company .

To confirm the pest’s presence, Stine agronomists recommend digging up compromised soybean plants and splitting open the stem. If white or orange larvae are found feeding within the inner layers, growers should check the Soybean Gall Midge Alert Network tracking system to determine whether the pest has been reported in their area. Next, they should contact their local Extension specialist to help confirm the diagnosis and report the finding if their county is not yet documented in their area.

Cultural Practices Show Promise

Unfortunately, there are few strategies to manage and control soybean gall midge, according to Tony Lenz, Stine technical agronomist.
With no labeled, consistently effective in-season insecticide program and no established treatment threshold, researchers are testing cultural and mechanical tactics that might give farmers at least partial relief.

Tillage ahead of planting — a tough sell in no-till systems — shows some promise in reducing early infestations in current-year soybean fields.

“Turns out that disking alone, at least in (our) study… did reduce infestation,” says Justin McMechan an entomologist and associate professor at UNL.

“There’s a significant reduction as we move from no-till to that… where it’s just disked and planted into, and then disking and hilling (a practice used in growing potatoes), which really is effective, because you’re covering up the infestation site,” McMechan adds.

He notes that even subtle changes in seedbed shape may help by covering fissures or altering microclimates at the stem base.

On planters running row cleaners, McMechan says adjustments at field edges might be one of the more accessible tools.

“There are not huge differences, but they are statistically significant,” he adds.

Field edge management has been another area of experimentation, including mowing or managing dense vegetation next to infested fields. Results are mixed, but McMechan says there are situations where mowing modestly cuts pressure.

“Nebraska saw on occasion where mowing would reduce infestation and lead to marginal yield benefit… we’re talking like 6-bushel differences,” he says, adding that weather and nearby corn canopy can override those gains.

There are no insecticides currently available to control soybean gall midge. A combination of cultural practices and mechanical efforts is likely the best option, for now, to stop or slow the pest.

(Justin McMechan)

Scientists Evaluate ‘Out-Of-The-Box’ Practices

Other work by researchers is pushing even further outside the box to find control measures. At UNL, graduate research assistant Kristin Heinrichs Stark is testing whether a biodegradable surface barrier called BioWrap can physically trap larvae in the soil and prevent emergence.

The work is early-stage and raises reasonable questions about cost and field-scale application rates, but it points to the kind of layered, non-chemical tactics Extension researchers say will likely be needed to address the pest.

Even as these cultural and physical strategies are developed, Hodgson reminds farmers that the ag industry still lacks any clear control option once larvae are inside the soybean stem.

“We really don’t have a treatment threshold, or a rescue treatment option at this time,” she says. “We know that the soybean gall midge certainly can cause yield losses, plant death, and that directly relates to yield. But we don’t really have great answers on like, how many plants does it take? How many larvae per plant (causes yield loss)?”

For now, farmers dealing with soybean gall midge are being asked to combine careful field scouting, crop rotation, and targeted cultural tactics to address the pest as the research community races to find answers and close those gaps.

Specialists from three Midwest universities provided the latest updates on soybean gall midge (SGM) this spring in a webinar, available at the link below:

Cattle Bounce Early, Act Toppy: Grains Rally Adding War and China Premium

Mon, 11 May 2026 15:35:32 GMT

Livestock and grain futures were mostly higher early Monday with risk on buying across the complex.

Cattle Futures Bounce After Lower Weekly Closes
Cattle futures were higher early Monday after disappointing closes on Friday with lower weekly closes in both live and feeder cattle futures.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the action was a red flag to him since it came after record fed cash trade.

“After 45 years what comes to my mind is when you whip the horse he had better run. Which is a way of saying when the news is good it should rally when the news is bad it should go down. If it doesn’t then you should evaluate just exactly what is the market trading,” he says.

Last Thursday the futures broke on fears of increased Brazilian beef imports and a change in the tariff and quota as President Trump was meeting with Brazilian President Lula.

However, when that didn’t materialize Kooima says the market should have recovered on Friday and it didn’t.

Futures vs. Record Cash
The other concern is that the futures failed to rally on record cash news of up to $260 in the North.

Kooima says, “Are you kidding me we got $260 and a lot of the $260 bought up in my region was for all the way into the first week of June from a couple of the major players.”

Basis Play
He chalks it up to a basis play on cash cattle where the cash is higher than the futures and this wide disparity between the two is mirroring the last bull market in cattle in 2014.

“One of the features to that was that we had an extreme basis. We had at times where futures were much below cash. I mean, like $8, $10, $14 for a while, $15. I wonder if that’s how, as we get to the end of this rally that most of it maybe won’t come in a basis adjustment. In other words, where cash goes much above futures,” he explains.

This happened in 2025 according to Kooima. “Now, last year at this time, hey, $8 or $10 or whatever, you know, with cash above futures. We traded like that a long time last year, okay? So, you know, part of me is going like, hey, you know, to have the June’s $10 under cash isn’t the first time. But I think, you know, you got to look at at least, I look at it a little more analytically.”

So, even though numbers are tight on cattle, the market may be indicating that demand isn’t going to stay very good.

Beef Demand Faltering?
Kooima says there is already evidence beef demand is faltering with Choice beef just over $388, in the face of slaughter cuts and a weekly slaughter of only 527,000 head.

He says that is a problem. “I’m becoming worried about it. Maybe two weeks ahead of Mother’s Day, usually that’s where we catch. That’s where the boxes start to rally. That’s where the middle meets, which is the steak cuts. You sell more strip steaks on Mother’s Day weekend than any other weekend of the year, followed by Memorial Day and Father’s Day.”

At the same time the market sees a movement of choice over select where there’s more demand for these these better quality cuts and that was only $3.38 on Friday which he says is not a good sign. It also means negative packer margins, which can’t be sustained and may result in another plant closure.

“Are we going to lose another packer or something like that or another shift or something. If you’re a packer and May is the month that you almost always make a lot of money and you are like halfway through and are losing like this, I’m sure that those Monday morning boardroom meetings got to be not much fun at all for them,” he adds.

High Gas Prices?
Is the slower demand a function of high gas prices finally taking their toll? Or it is just higher beef prices at the store?

Kooima thinks it is probably both at least in the case of higher priced cuts.

“Now, I should mention that, you know, when we talked about demand, demand for the grind is good for the hamburger,” he adds.

And if gas prices start to come down he thinks consumer demand will rebound quickly.

DOJ Probe Spooks the Funds
The other concerns is that the funds, who are long the cattle market, have likely seen the headlines about the DOJ investigation of the big four packers and got spooked.

“If you’ve got a fund manager, an algorithm that trades or reacts to headlines. What’s the long speculator going to do here? He’s going to go, well, geez, I got to trade crude oil. I got to trade Iran war and now this DOJ probe. If they think that there’s a chance that something really comes of that breaking up the big four it would be extremely bearish in the short term,” he adds.

Funds are currently long over 138,000 contracts and added nearly 6,500 contracts to their length last as of last Tuesday.

Feeder Cattle Futures Discount to Index
The feeder cattle futures are also at a big discount to the cash index index according to Kooima.

Feeder index today is going to be up around $375.86 is our guess. So we’re trading about $6 under or something like that. And as someone who’s actively in the cash feeder cattle market for these good 800 pound kind of cattle, if you can find them in the north, they’re not much cheaper, if any at all. So the demand for the cash feeder cattle continue to be very strong,” he says.

Hogs Bounce Off New Lows
Lean hogs futures were slightly higher Monday morning but bouncing off of new lows set on Friday. So can they hold?

Kooima says there are many fundamentals that should support the futures including the disease issues in the country and high priced feeder pigs.

However, it is being offset by the ample slaughter figures which is holding back the board.

Domestic demand has been steady but globally he says China is not buying much U.S. pork with their large hog supplies and there are concerns about Mexico.

Grains Higher Adding War, China Premium
Grains started higher on Monday adding premium back in as the war continues in Iran and heading into the China summit on May 14 and 15.

Kooima says the market is hoping for some additional China commitments but talk Friday puts their purchases of soybeans at another 12 to 13 MMT for this calendar year, which would be a disappointment.

The corn rally last week was capped as well on the July contract with a double top and the May WASDE will be a reminder of the large old crop corn ending stocks he says.

Still he is hopeful if the U.S. can secure some China corn purchases it could help corn and soybeans to continue to rally.

High Stakes: Trump-Xi Summit, WASDE and E15 Set Up Crucial Week for Ag Commodity Markets

Mon, 11 May 2026 10:48:18 GMT

A faltering spring rally for grains and the soy complex may hang in the balance as producers and traders prepare for a week jam-packed with potentially market-moving events.

On Tuesday, USDA will deliver its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will offer the department’s initial outlook for the new crop year.
On Wednesday, the House is slated to vote on long-sought legislation to green-light year-round sales of E15.
What is likely to be the main event, President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China Thursday and Friday, where a meeting with leader Xi Jinping is hoped to bring affirmation that Beijing will follow through on commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and possibly other agricultural goods.

There’s also the Iran war, which in the past week overshadowed individual market fundamentals as a U.S. proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict sparked a crude selloff that dragged grain markets back from recent highs.

Let’s break down what’s at stake:

May WASDE

While the May outlook often sets the initial tone for the new crop year, the timing of the forecast during corn and soybean planting season leaves high potential for changes later in the year, with both acreage and yield still fluid.

Over the past 30 years, on average, USDA’s initial forecast for soybean ending stocks is 78 million bushels higher than the final estimate. For corn, that disparity is even wider at 129 million bushels higher than the initial forecast. With fuel and fertilizer prices rising sharply this spring, that further exacerbates the variability around potential yields as farmers may cut inputs to save costs.

Due to winter wheat already being planted and the agency including survey yield data in this report, the margin of error in ending stocks is smaller and averages 51 million bushels lower than the final.

The May WASDE is generally neutral in terms of the direction it moves the price of row crops based on these trends the past 30 years:

July HRW and SRW wheat futures ended the day of the WASDE release higher 14 times
December corn higher 16 times
November soybeans higher 12 times

In absolute values, the change in price is 11 3/4 cents for July HRW wheat, 10 1/4 cents for July SRW wheat, 7 cents for December corn and 11 1/4 cents for November soybeans. Still, outliers are possible. 2022’s initial forecast sent wheat futures soaring, with KC July wheat rising 69 1/2 cents following the release that compounded on worries of lower production from the Black Sea at that time.

E15

After being once again left on the cutting-room floor during legislative wrangling over the farm bill, E15 legislation is slated for a House vote. Following farm bill passage last month, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson said a vote on standalone legislation would take place on May 13 . High fuel prices driven by the Iran war have intensified bipartisan pressure to pass the bill before the midterm elections, though oil-state opposition remains a hurdle.

It isn’t yet clear a vote will take place. Full passage would bolster biofuel demand at the margin, while a successful House vote would perhaps provide a timely psychological lift for corn futures.

Trump-Xi Summit

The postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting in mid-March sent soybeans into a tailspin , underlining the stakes surrounding the rescheduled summit. Soybean producers want to hear affirmation – from Beijing – that China is prepared to follow through on what the White House has said is a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans per calendar year for the next three years. That’s less than what China was buying before Beijing’s boycott of U.S. purchases that undercut the market last year. China has yet to affirm specific targets.

Soybean exports picked up as China resumed purchases after Trump and Xi struck a one-year trade truce in October, but continue to run behind the pace necessary to hit USDA’s current marketing year projection of 1.54 million bushels.

(Pro Farmer)

The good news is that such a commitment may be low-hanging fruit. What’s more, reports have portrayed Chinese negotiators as open to purchases of an array of agricultural goods, including beef, poultry and non-soybean row crops – in addition to soybeans. Trade watchers say an agreement that would see China buy agricultural goods and aircraft alongside further tariff reductions may be the summit’s most likely outcome, with thornier issues kicked down the road.

A deal could trigger a relief rally, but risks remain. Friction over the Iran war, AI guardrails and Taiwan could make Xi reluctant to commit. Given how sensitive soybeans have been to China-related headlines, a disappointing outcome could quickly rattle the market.

The War and the Market

The nosedive by crude-oil futures this past week dragged corn, wheat and soybeans back from new highs, raising questions about the staying power of a budding spring rally that saw December corn briefly push above the $5 a bushel mark. The coming week will see market participants run a gauntlet of market-moving fundamental events that may end up setting near-term direction.

Soybeans Strong Heading Into China Summit

Sat, 09 May 2026 01:08:38 GMT

For the week July corn was 9 cents lower, December corn was down 5 ¾, July soybeans gained 4 ¾, November soybeans added 6 ¾, July soybean meal was $.40 higher, July bean oil lost 84 points, July soft red winter wheatlost 18 ¾, July hard red winter lost 18 ¾, July hard red spring wheat fell 24.

Strong Week in Soybeans on China Hopes
Soybeans ended sharply higher on Friday and posted higher weekly closes on optimism about the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on May 14-15 in Beijing.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.

In late October, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans for the current year and 25 MMT for the three years following. President Trump followed that up with a social media post on February 4 indicating China would be buying an additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans.

Gulke says Friday’s rally in soybeans was impressive and the technical action for the week was positive as the November contract closed above the March and April highs.

“November took out the March highs early this week, then backed off Wednesday and Thursday, then turned around and went back up again. So, it’s respecting new highs for May. That’s important. If you can stay above the April and March highs like we have and exceed it then you’re probably on to something that’s more long-term. We’ve done that in new crop,” he explains.

July or old crop soybeans filled the gap from the limit down day on March 9 when President Trump announced he was delaying the China summit due to the war in Iran, but could not close above the March high.

He says when a market fails like that it is a concern but if the market is positive enough to close above that gap it’s significant and signals a bigger rally.

So next week will be a pivotal week to see if July soybeans can close above the March high of $12.50 3/4, especially with the big news items hitting the market including the May WASDE and the China summit.

Corn Lower for the Week, Funds Still Long
On the other hand, corn posted lower weekly closes in both the July and December contacts, which is concerning to Gulke.

It may be tied to more acres of corn being planted than what USDA indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report.

Gulke says in talking to his seed dealer, he indicated he had not seen any farmers bring back corn to exchange for soybeans.

“There was a lot of talk about it, but he said nobody really did it in any significance. And so you have a lot of rumors and innuendo, but when you talk to some of the seed corn guys, it wasn’t significant if it was at all.So, apparently, they found inputs,” he states.

Gulke also talked to his fertilizer supplier, who indicated they had enough fertilizer in stock for anyone that did not pre-book.

“They’ll pay more than they would have in October or November but they can get it,” he says, “So, I’m wondering whether things are as bad as the media would have led us to believe. Just because prices got high, does not mean it wasn’t available.”

Funds Long in Corn and Soybeans
According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report the funds are long in both corn and soybeans and added to those positions in the last week.

In the soybean complex the managed money traders have been long for several weeks.

Gulke says, “It’s very impressive. I would have probably bet they stayed neutral maybe even liquidate a little but it looks like they bought into any kind of weakness.They did a huge, huge amount in new crop corn and corn and beans in general.”

Some in the trade media, according to Gulke, will come out Monday saying when traders get this long they need to get out at some time.“And when he gets out, the doors are not going to be big enough to let him out.”

Gulke disagrees.“The large spec is kind of like a hockey player that wants to shoot the puck or watch where he thinks the puck’s going to go and not where it is. And that’s what they’re looking at.They’re opportunists. They’re buying grain or buying stocks or whatever in anticipation of selling it at a higher price.”

So, the funds can keep defending their market longs longer than you think or in the case of wheat funds were short for nearly four years.

“You have the speculator who bets millions and billions on managing money. They’re still long. If you’re heavily negative agriculture, you probably look over your shoulder and say, what am I missing? We’ll find that out later but usually the large spec is smarter than I am, so I watch him pretty close,” he concludes.

For more information you can contact Jerry and info@gulkegroup.com .

Soybeans Lead Grain Recovery Friday on Talk of China Soybean Purchases

Fri, 08 May 2026 21:30:05 GMT

Grains ended higher Friday with cattle lower.

Grains Recover Friday, Follow War Headlines
Grain markets recovered on Friday with crude oil as the hopes for a cease fire and peace deal with Iran started to fade.

Dan Basse with Ag Resource Company says grains chopped following crude oil most of the week.

“Headlines have been all over the place. We came into the week with crude oil sharply higher, thinking that the blockade that was on from the United States and of course also by Iran was going to be long lived. And the market was even looking and saying that that blockade of the Strait of Hormuz may last to the end of summer,” he says.

Grains and a lot of commodities added war premium because of that and then reversed lower on news of a peace deal later in the week.

“When the we saw a mutual letter of understanding, a one pager by President Trump to the Iranians trying to find a way to open the Strait and maybe get to a 30-day negotiations over Iran’s nuclear ambitions. That gave the market a drop, if you will. And then on Friday, as tensions started to come back up as the U.S. attacked a few tankers, the market added war premiums. So in my mind, war is still the big factor in grain trade. We’ll see how the next week plays out. But next week,

Strait Reopening is Key
The big key is getting the Strait of Hormuz reopened and Basse is giving that about 33% odds.

“I’ve increased it a little bit because I do believe that there’s pressure on the Iranians as they run out of storage for their crude oil production to maybe get back to the negotiating table,” he says.

He says a forced deal in which the U.S. military and Iran will go back and forth will open it up for short periods of time, otherwise the U.S. may continue the blockade.

“But as you go forward, again, we’ll see how Trump is able to negotiate. And the Iranians at this point are not anxious to get to the negotiating table, which concerns me. But we’ll see how Pakistan really nudges them forward along with the Chinese,” he says.

Corn and Wheat Rally Over?
Without a re-escalation could the corn and wheat rally be over, especially after lower weekly closes?

“Managed money or funds are along about a half million contracts of grain, corn, soybeans, and wheat, it does show the markets put a tremendous amount of war premium in the price. We’ve done some analysis at AgResource. We think it’s about 45 cents on corn, $1.40 on beans, and about 25 cents on wheat in terms of war premium. If that war were to end, that premium comes out. I also believe the markets will be more focused on new crops,” he adds.

So he thinks farmers should be rewarding the market rallies.

Soybeans End Higher on China Purchase Talk
Soybeans led the rally on Friday with the summit coming up May 14 and 15.

Basse says, “The summit is expected to produce maybe some Chinese buying. Rumors from China on Friday had them buying some 12 to 13 million metric tons from the United States. If I combine that with the 12 million tons they bought last November through of, let’s say, the end
of January, that would take us to 25 million metric tons. And remember, back in that November meet, the United States talked about China committing to buying 25 million metric tons of soybeans a year. So we’ll see how this all plays out. I do not think that buying 12 or 13 million metric tons by the end of 2026 is all that bullish.”

That’s because it will lead to lower soybean export figures but still the market saw this as demand from China and it got the market moving higher on Friday.

China Summit Deliverables?
So what is the market looking for to keep the China premium built into the soybean market intact?

Basse says, “The USTR and Ambassador Greer has been talking about a board of trade idea. And the board of trade is not in Chicago. It’s a board of trade concept in which the United States would start to sell additional ag commodities to the Chinese under some separate terms. So maybe that includes wheat or corn or beef or other products. And so whether or not Ambassador Greer can get that across the finish line next week will be important. If we broaden commodity mixtures to China, from the United States, that would be more bullish.”

He thinks it will take another summit in November to get that done.

Will China Buy Other Crops?
China has said they want to buy non-soybean row crops though, so could the soybean bulls be disappointed.

He says its entirely possible, “Listen, when we head into these kind of negotiations or summits, it’s all political. And that is something that, you know, as an analyst, we can’t look behind the curtain very far. I am troubled about several things, though. Again, I’d like China to drop its tax on soybeans. It has a 10% duty on U.S. soybeans coming in, a 15% duty on grain. So that needs to end. But on the other side of that, I would be hopeful that maybe we can start to sell some grain to China. and wheat and other meat products. That would just help the U.S. farmer broaden things out.”

He also hopes the two countries can normalize trade with a market-based system.

“Not where presidents Xi or Trump, decide what’s going to happen.”

Global Tariffs Struck Down, Leverage for China?
In additiona, the 10% global tariffs were declared unlawful on Friday. So, does that give China more leverage in these discussions next week?

Basse says, “Oh, it sure does. You know that a 10% tariff was on China. If we remember back to the last meeting that happened back in November, that tariff rate was somewhere just shy of 50%. So the Chinese like to trade. In other words, if they’re going to get a lower tariff, they’ll do something in terms on the buy side. And we saw that with the fentanyl tariffs back in November. If there’s no tariffs on China, which would be the implication of that, that 10% tariff being wiped. out, I wondered what else the United States could provide China. Maybe there’s something on Taiwan. Maybe there’s something elsewhere. But the availability to trade tariffs for China doing something is diminished with this decision that came on.”

He says it’s disappointing that this happened right before the trade summit.

Wheat Topped?
Wheat may have topped but with the Kansas Wheat Quality Tour next week could that shock the market into causing some weather premium to be added?

“I think that we’ll all look to the Kansas tour and the NASS production estimate that comes out on Tuesday as kind of giving us what the probabilities are in terms of how small is small. There’s some of us that see the hard red winter wheat crop down in the 575 to 585 million bushels. If it goes below that, then that will be somewhat bullish,” he explains.

However, he says the world wheat carryover of old and new crop wheat is a near record supply.

“So there’s no shortage of wheat in the world. We just have a shortage of hard red wheat in the Kansas or the Plains. And then the question is, what do U.S. millers do accordingly? But I worry about export demand going forward because we are hearing that Russia is selling wheat
into Mexico. We’re hearing Russia selling wheat into places like Brazil. These are traditional U.S. customers. I hate to see that business being lost to the Russians,” he adds.

He thinks USDA may lower the winter wheat crop between 200 to 225 million bushels with ending stocks dropping 100 to 125 million bushels.

May WASDE Expectations
Will USDA raise corn exports in the May WASDE and lower soybean exports?

“Yeah, I think that’s the popular tone that people want to raise exports a little bit on corn, maybe cut the ethanol estimate because of the inclusion of sorghum in the weekly grinds or monthly grinds. That’s all possible. I think USDA kind of holds pad, if you will, and we don’t see a big change on end stocks. We still stay above 2.1 billion. And then on soybeans, you know, we’re looking at around 340 to 350 million bushels, maybe down 5 to 10 million bushels there. Maybe exports need to be trimmed a little bit in soybeans, but crush numbers need to rise. Wheat won’t change much,” he adds.

For new crop corn ending stocks his estimate is above 2 billion bushels as USDA sticks with trendline yield of 183 bu. Soybeans will also see trendline yield of 53 bu.

The wheat number will change based on the NASS production report of winter wheat.

China export demand is still up in the air. “And a lot of that depends upon the summit on Thursday, Friday. So if I’m USDA, I’m not going to make a big change in Chinese soybean demand just yet.”

The biggest changes could come with USDA raising the Argentinian corn crop, six or seven million metric tons. They also could do the same to Brazil. The Brazilian soybean crop could nudge up just a million or two tons, he adds.

Cattle See Profit Taking?
Cattle futures ended lower despite record cash trade. Is that just profit taking or is that a bigger concern?

Basse says, “I believe it’s somewhat of a concern. Seasonally speaking, as we tend to get into the early part of June, excuse me, May, and we normally make a top in the beef market. That top usually corresponds with the Mother’s Day weekend. So coming after that, I expect beef prices to start decline. We also see cash cattle numbers rising, or at least fed cattle numbers rising for the next three or four weeks. Slaughter has been relatively low relative to on-feed estimates over the last four or five weeks. I believe those cattle will now come to market maybe at some heavier weights, and that could cause some easing, if you will, of cash prices.”

But he doesn’t see any end to the longer term bull market in cattle because there is no dramatic expansion in the cattle herd.

“So tightening supplies longer term is still the theme. It’s just that the market could have a correction here,” he adds.

Brazilian Beef Imports
The talk of higher Brazilian beef imports and the DOJ investigation of meat packers may have also spooked the funds.

“Well, we did have President Lula at the White House on Thursday, and there was a discussion of better or improving beef trade into the United States. A lot of that beef will be used for the grind. In other words, hamburger in Brazil was the biggest importer customer into the United States looking backwards to 2024. So I imagine that there is that potential there, but the Brazilians are going to take a little while to have it all happen. And now we’ve got the Section 122 tariff news, there’s a little push on that. But again, I don’t think it’s enough to really collapse the market. I do believe it’s something that could give us a correction,” he states.

Are Your Fields A Green Light? Use the Three-Factor System To Guide Planting Decisions

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:51:42 GMT

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie is urging farmers to pay close attention to soil conditions and local weather forecasts as planting accelerates across the Midwest.

Ferrie and his team at Crop-Tech Consulting recommend using a “red-yellow-green light” system to guide planting decisions. The practice is based on three factors: soil moisture, seed chilling risks and the 10-day emergence forecast.

The information on the green-yellow-red color system for planting is pretty self-explanatory, says Ken Ferrie. Once you know the light color, you can see the meaning and the action he recommends taking.

(Crop-Tech Consulting)

Regional Forecast And Recommendation

Despite ongoing weather struggles from cold and rain in some parts of the country, planting progress continues across much of the upper Midwest.

For central Illinois, Ferrie says there is a green light for Monday, with some areas getting a yellow or red light for Tuesday. The U.S. National Weather Service says a weak cold front will bring the next chance for storms later on Tuesday, some of which could be severe. Temperatures will turn cooler for midweek.

Ferrie warns that the first 12 to 24 hours seed corn is in the ground are the most critical. During this window of time, the seed absorbs 30% of its weight in water. If that water is below 50 degrees Fahrenheit, the cells lose elasticity and tear. Chilled seed corn can easily result in a 10% stand loss.

“You can literally tell the difference between fields that were planted in the morning compared to in an afternoon that’s going into a cool night,” Ferrie says. “That is why you’ll see our lights change at noon some days, trying to get enough water absorbed before the soil temperature drops.”

You can get more information from Ferrie on the perils of seed corn chilling in this brief video:

Ferrie says if corn takes longer than 11 days to emerge, those kernels that were planted “spike down” will struggle to compete.

“The spike-down plants can be a week or two weeks behind the spike-up plants,” Ferrie explains. “At that point, they will be more than a collar behind and not produce a regular-sized ear.”

Listen to Ferrie’s complete recommendations in his Boots In The Field podcast:

Cattle Digest Record Cash, Brazil Import Talk: Grains Try to Recover

Fri, 08 May 2026 16:04:51 GMT

Livestock were leaning higher early Friday. Soybeans higher and corn and wheat mixed.

Cattle Recover With Record Cash
Cattle futures were higher on Friday after recovering well off the early lows on Thursday.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cash trade developed in the South at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3.

However, in the North trade started at $256 but by the end of the day trade was all the way up to $260. Dressed prices ranged from $400 to $405 with the volume at $402, up $3.

He says it was unexpected after the $10 to $12 higher cash last week. “That was the surprise, the highlight from yesterday where we have markets that are crashing in a big, big fashion. Then all of a sudden we started to hear some cash bids in the South and it was $256 in Kansas or Texas. And then all of a sudden it was $257 up to Kansas, then $258. Then you’re getting $260 rumors around the North. People start asking $260 and some guys got it. It was, wow, never been higher cash,” he details.

That brought the board back on Thursday and helped with the early rally on Friday.

He says the record cash cleaned up the showlists and packers were buying for delayed deliver as well, which is bullish.

“I heard the $260 mainly in the North, you know, it kind of started in Western Nebraska, but they sell with a 4% shrink there. And then when it kind of finally came to Eastern Nebraska and Iowa, that’s with a 3% shrink. So that’s even a better price yet. I didn’t hear a mountain of anything, I guess, as far as the South goes at $260, but they trade such small numbers anyway. I guess it wouldn’t surprise me if they did. But we’re likely done,” he adds.

Cattle Market Broke on Brazil Import Fear
“Yesterday’s news was the Brazilian president coming up to the White House to meet with President Trump. And I think that just started some fears, that are we going to import some more beef raise the quota so we we can bring more in because President Trump says beef’s too high,” he explains.

So the market reacted and turned significantly lower.

However, by the end of the meeting Varilek says they didn’t address beef and agreed to keep talking.

“So, we saw a big recovery yesterday as it kind of started to diminish those fears just a little bit on that news.”

DOJ Probe
There was also increased talk about a DOJ probe into meat packer price fixing which may have also spooked the market.

The Assistant Attorney General detailed actions against AgriFax for price fixing in the pork, chicken and turkey business and how that would be used as a precedent for the beef packing industry.

He says, “I think that’s just some extra uncertainty we’re throwing on the market. You know, I think we all look at the big four and, you know, us that are in the production industry, we understand that that’s been frustrating for many, many years. And, you know, where you want to say, yeah, that sounds like a great idea. It just makes you a little nervous. You know, the government’s getting involved. If they swing a big stick, it could really change the whole scheme of things, I guess. And just that uncertainty that circles around it is a little bit scary. So what does that look like? We’ve got some foreign-owned packers. We’ve got the big four that we talk about all the time and love to complain about. But just when their hands get in there, I think you’re a little bit nervous just what the outcome could be there.”

Retest the Highs?
So can the cattle futures retest the all-time highs with the help of the cash news?

Varilek says the one thing that may hold the market back is boxed beef values. They were lower on the close yesterday and while the negotiated totals are a small part of the actual sales, the trend is concerning.

“Just the prices that we are seeing are pretty lackluster and in the height of our demand season we’ve got Mother’s Day weekend coming up. The choice select spread negative and not seeing any major you know rallies in these boxes that’s a little bit alarming,” he adds.

Next Cattle on Feed Report
The other factor that could start to turn the market sentiment is bigger on feed and placement numbers in the next Cattle on Feed Report.

He says, “We’re going to have to start getting used to that just a little bit as we’re comparing to historical tight numbers from the year prior. So wondering what that does to the market. Does it start to drop off those deferreds as we see more numbers, get used to some, you know, seeing some of those on feed reports that aren’t just super duper friendly. So I think that’s something to keep an eye on here. We already have the deferreds kind of holding back. you know, thinking there’s more numbers coming, it’s going to happen later. And it kind of creates that bull spread market when, well, cash is still $260. So I guess the front’s got to stay up.”

He also expects numbers to start to creep up with the drought and some cattle being sold early due to the lack of pasture or some cows being culled.

“We culled this cow herd really hard two years ago. Last year really kind of took that off. I think started to rebuild, keeping those cows back. keeping some heifers back, and that’s going to give us some long-term hope that we’re going to get some supply back. But the only other factor is it’s dry in cow-calf country. Grass is running a little short, so does that kind of start to kick the can down the road? And maybe we’ve got to bring some of those extra numbers back into town early,” he further explains.

Cargill’s Fort Morgan Plant Dark
Meanwhile the Cargill plant in Fort Morgan is still dark as workers are still not back to work but the market has really faded the news.

“And not hearing anything about it. It just seems like, you know, the Greeley plant was in everyday news and we talked about it. We maybe had more to talk about. This one doesn’t have any news and we’re just kind of brushing it off,” he says.

Hogs Mostly Higher
The hog futures were mostly higher Friday except for the spot month as Varilek says the back months are still building in premium on tighter supplies tied to disease.

Still the cash market has not taken off so the futures are being bear spread.

“Supply traders are all starting to push disease back to more through July and October that’s what it looks like now,” he adds.

PRV Export Restrictions
The front end of the cattle futures are also pressured by the news that Mexico is looking at restricting U.S. pork variety meat imports due to the cases of Pseudorabies in Iowa.

“Mexico talking about curbing some exports and making some different requirements for us. So, that’s a little bit of ripple effect that’s starting to happen is that’s there there could be some effect and you’ve got pork we rely on exports for that industry. So, Mexico being our number one customer that’s a that’s a one to swallow,” he says.

Grains Try to Recover
The grain markets have had a tough week trading lower with the energy markets on a possible cease fire with Iran and opening of the Strait of Hormuz.

Iran rejected the deal so energy markets recovered on Thursday and are around steady on Friday.

That is helping the grain markets recover.

“And I think it just shows you how much war premium is in that market. You know, the energies were really on fire at some very high levels. And when they started to correct mainly because there’s more ceasefire hopes there’s hopes that we’re going to going to make a deal took the wind out of the sails of those energy markets and grains absolutely followed that down,” he says.

Corn and soybeans held support on Thursday on the charts and so they are bouncing off those levels but have retreated down to the lower levels of the trading range.

WASDE and China Summit
The markets may also see some positioning going into the end of the week, and with the May WASDE and the China summit scheduled for next week.

Varilek says the China trade hopes should support buying in the soybeans but the WASDE may not be that friendly.

“You know, we always get that reminder of our ending stock number and how much supply that we have. And hopefully it’s a surprise. And we’ve really started to chew into it from some of this increased energy demand,” he says.

He is also expecting lower wheat production estimates from USDA based on poor conditions in hard red winter areas and with the Kansas Wheat Quality Council tour likely to confirm lower production.

Corn, Soybeans Hold Support as Oil Recovers: Cattle Fall Despite Record Cash

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:56:17 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly lower on Thursday except back month hog futures.

Grains Follow Crude Oil, War Headlines
Grain markets were lower on Thursday still tied to the trend of the crude oil futures and Iran war headlines says Jeff Hoogendoorn with Professional Ag Marketing.

“You know, we had crude starting the day out significantly lower, putting those lows in fairly early in the session, and grains did very much the same thing,” he says.

He says up until this week the grain markets seemed like they were trying to divorce from the energy sector and trade their own fundamentals but that isn’t the case the last few days.

“I think today was the best example as it traded both on the lows of the day with the crude and on the highs of the day,” he explains.

Corn and Soybeans End Off Lows
So, crude oil started sharply lower Thursday with the continued news of peace talks with Iran and possibility of getting the Strait of Hormuz open, pulling down grain markets.

However, crude oil stabilized as the day progressed following Iran rejecting the terms for a long-term cease fire and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.

That reversal in the crude oil market helped to support late day buying in corn and soybeans, even bean oil.

Corn and Soybeans Hold Support
Corn and soybeans also bounced as they held key chart support and bounced off that level.

“We got underneath the moving average that we’re watching kind of mid-day like on the December corn in that $4.85 area. So we definitely had a lower low than that, but the closes kind of saved the day on the charts,” he says.

He says it was a victory for corn to close just a 1/2 cent lower versus at the low end of the trading range today.

“Something to be watching for tomorrow, though. I mean, we’ve kind of put a few days in a row now, some lower highs and some lower lows and busting through some of the moving averages and retracements. So that’ll be a big number tomorrow.”

Will Funds Defend Longs?
The funds had piled into the corn market the last week or so buying over 83,000 contract last week alone and were record long in soybean oil. So will they defend those long positions if crude oil goes down or wait to see if inflation concerns subside?

“I think they can stay in these markets for a little bit longer in the corn. But they can put a lot more contracts on the books too. From a historical standpoint it’s still early in the season for them to be completely exiting. I don’t think that needs to happen today. I think we’ve got a a month to two months left from a seasonality standpoint and then they could shed some positions,” he adds.

Plus, he thinks the inflationary concerns are far from over because it will take a while to get the Strait of Hormuz open and normalized and the managed money traders realize that.

Favorable Planting Weather
The USDA crop progress report has shown planting progress ahead of average which has also weighed on the markets.

While there have been some areas that have struggled with cold and/or wet conditions slowing planting that is starting to change.

Much of the Corn Belt is seeing some more favorable weather and the extended forecast is also conducive for planting which should result in bearish planting figures for corn and soybeans on Mondday.

“It looks to us like most everybody’s getting a window. There’s some spots out into Indiana and into Ohio that we’re a little concerned about yet, Michelle, as far as planting pace goes. But, you know, that eastern Iowa into Illinois looks like we’re going to be in pretty good shape and getting a nice window in a lot of spots.”

Weekly Exports
Weekly exports on Thursday morning were below last week for corn at 53.6 million bu. but still solid for this time of year. Plus, total exports are up 29% from a year ago.

Soybeans were only 5.2 million bu. for old crop which is a marketing low and cumulative exports are down 23% from last year which is disappointing according to Hoogendoorn.

“I think the marketplace is kind of anticipating some of that. We’re not really riding a huge wave higher as far as especially old crop soybean sales go. So I believe some of that’s priced in. We know we’re going to be lower on exports as this year kind of gets to the back half of the year, right, as far as old crop sales go. New crop is hopefully a different story. I think we’ll get a month or so down the road and we’ll start to focus on that which is why we didn’t take that news harder,” he says.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
Also holding the soybean market together is ideas that China could announce soybean purchases at the Summit next week and so it may build those premium back into heading into the meeting. Is this market building those premiums in? T

“Yes, there’s probably some optimism built in there. However, a lot of these type of meetings have been disappointing. Right. So. let’s be a little careful there if we’re truly putting some premium into the market going into into that meeting let’s approach that thing with some caution. Hopefully it’s not warranted but our history would suggest that gets a little disappointing on the actual action items,” he adds.

Wheat Story Over?
The wheat market did not recover off the lows with crude oil and was down sharply especially in hard red winter wheat contracts.

The market is continuing to remove weather premium with some rains or moisture received in dry HRW areas in Colorado and Western Kansas. Plus the frost concerns have not materialized as advertised.

So, Hoogendoorn says the wheat production concerns are starting to fade.

“Well, talk about an impressive story about buy the rumor and sell the fact, right? I mean, this crop has got a lot of issues as far as the hard red winter wheat. So it’s so impressive that we rallied before that news kind of came out, if you will, or before it was official through the USDA. Now we’re getting a lot of that information coming out on the table, but we’re taking a good 60 cents off that wheat market in the meantime. So yes, that’s very much what’s going on. That wheat story has got some age to it,” he states.

The market didn’t even react to the Oklahoma wheat tour results which pegged the crop at only 47.8 million bushels, which was well below the 106.4 million bu. figure from last year.

And while some areas missed frost there are more freezing temperatures in the forecast for this weekend, which have failed to support the market.

Cattle Lower Despite Higher Cash
Cattle futures ended off session lows but were lower on the day.

Early pressure came from lower boxed beef prices, the lower stock market and concerns that a planned meeting between President Trump and Brazil’s president may result in increased beef imports coming into the U.S. to provide some price relief to beef for consumers.

The funds sold early on the headline says Hoogendoorn.

“They wanted to take risk off on this cattle market in a big way today. We’re hearing more rumors of some discussions going on with Brazil.
We’ll see if anything comes out of that in the next 24 to 48 hours. Be watchful and mindful of that type of discussion. Not sure if that’s what spooked it or if it was something else,” he adds.

He adds the only reason cattle ended off their lows was the higher cash market. He says it started out steady but continued to build momentum.

Southern cash trade was reported at $256 to $258, up $2 to $3. Northern trade live ranged from $258 to $260 live with $402 dressed prices, up $3.

Hog Futures End Mixed
Lean hog futures ended mixed with pressure in the front end of the board on continued ample supplies and bear spreading.

He says, “The market’s been trying really hard to justify having these summer futures markets at a premium to the nearby fundamentals, right? And as time passes and we run on a pretty large lack of any good news on the fundamental standpoint, they struggle to justify that premium. That’s exactly the way the market was trading today. That’s the way it’s been trading. Today they did it in the spread market, which, you know, as producers, we have to be pretty thankful for, right? Like we’re able to sell the front end and at least we’re buying the back end was actually able to post some closes that look pretty attractive there, you know, August on back type of a thing.”

But he thinks the market is on the edge of improving with few numbers in the pipeline.

Export Restrictions Due to Pseudorabies
The other good news is so far the only export restrictions tied to pseudorabies remerging after 20 years is Mexico, but that is limited.

“We’ve got the Mexico saying that they’re not interested in our varieties meats anymore. I think that’s a real thing and gonna be in place for a for a while. I don’t know if that’s something that will drag on all summer and into the fall or not mostly a reduction in revenue for the packers. I don’t think it’s going to have a huge impact,” he says.

Still the market has been on edge awaiting those type of announcements and if there are more he thinks they will be traded negatively.

“So the two things to watch, are there more positive cases and if any more news as far as countries restricting exports for sure,” he adds.

Soybean Farmers Detail ‘Sustainable Practices’ That Can Pay Off

Thu, 07 May 2026 21:14:51 GMT

Cover crops were nearly scratched off Laurie and Jim Isley’s list of practices on their Michigan farm a few years ago. The reason? Production costs were adding roughly $35 an acre to their budget, which was already stretched beyond thin.

“Things were really limited for us, so we looked at that practice really, really hard,” says Laurie, who farms with her husband near Palmyra, Mich. “We can absolutely be environmentally sustainable, but the bottom line is we’re not going to stay in business unless we are profitable.”

The use of cover crops is back on firmer economic ground now, she adds, thanks to cost-share programs such as Farmers for Soil Health (FSH), which help make soil health investments possible for income-strapped growers.

Making Cover Crops Cash-Flow

The biggest hurdle for cover crops has always been the upfront cost versus the delayed gratification of better soil structure. The Farmers for Soil Health initiative is currently bridging that gap for growers in 20 states. Isley says the program offers up to $35 per acre in cost-share, plus technical assistance.

For many farmers, the frustration with government or industry programs often lies in the “fine print.” Isley highlights two specific features of the FSH program that make it a more useful tool for many row-crop growers:

The “No Look Back” Policy: Unlike many programs that only reward “new” adopters, FSH is open to almost any grower. “You are eligible for this program whether you are planting cover crops for the very first time, or whether you’ve been planting them for 10, 15 or 20 years,” Isley says.
Short-Term Commitment: “It’s a one-year contract, but you can re-enroll in it year-after-year (with up to 2,000 acres per operation) through the length of time Farmers for Soil Health continues,” Isley notes.

Beyond the dollars, the program addresses the “how-to” hurdle. Each state has designated advisers to help with cover crop species selection, seeding methods (including the use of drones), and termination timing.

“It isn’t just, ‘Go forth and find cover crops,’” Isley says. “Sometimes you just need some expert help in order to get started on something. Even if you say, ‘I’m only going to do 100 acres this year,’ that’s still 100 acres you’re going to get that $35 an acre on to get started.”

High-Oleic Soybeans: A Revenue-Side Opportunity

While cost-shares help manage expenses, Matthew Chapman is looking at the other side of the ledger: revenue. For his east-central Indiana farm, high-oleic soybean contracts have been a game-changer.

“This project’s really been a home run for the whole soybean industry,” Chapman notes. He says that backed by checkoff investments and partnerships with industry giants like Bayer, Corteva, and Beck’s, the specialty beans have already delivered over $400 million in total returns to U.S. farmers.

Chapman started off growing high-oleic soybeans on 20% of his acreage and eventually scaled to 100%. The premiums — ranging in his area from $0.75 to $1.25 per bushel last year — were a huge boost to his bottom line. But he says they have some requirements that farmers need to consider.

“Oftentimes you’re going to need to store this crop, depending on how far away your purchaser is,” he notes. “Your weed program and your plan need to start in the fall. There’s just a lot to consider ahead of time.”

The market is also evolving. High-oleic oil is prized by restaurants for its long fry life and trans-fat-free profile, and new markets are emerging. Chapman notes that his 2026 crop is destined for dairy feed — the beans will be roasted, cracked and fed whole.

United Soybean Board (USB) projections suggest that by 2027, about half of the U.S. high-oleic soybean crop could be headed to the dairy sector. Industrial uses are also gaining traction in asphalt, bioplastics and fire-resistant hydraulic oil, especially in sensitive environments like mining or near waterways.

Navigating The Carbon And Fuel Frontier

While the federal process for carbon intensity (CI) modeling is still unfolding, farmers see opportunity in markets tied to carbon scores and renewable fuels.

USB is currently funding research to ensure farmers aren’t left behind as these markets mature. One surprising finding from Iowa State University: simply planting earlier can reduce nitrous oxide emissions, a major contributor to CI scores.

“That really costs us nothing to do,” Isley says. By documenting this “free” practice change, farmers can potentially lower their CI scores and increase the value of their grain in renewable fuel markets.

However, participation requires data. Chapman emphasizes that farmers need to be the masters of their own information.

“Whenever you’re selling the data off your farm, which is what this is, it starts with knowing what we have,” he says. “It’s hard to sell something unless you know what you’ve got when you start off.”

In southeast Kansas, farmer Charles Atkinson sees this playing out in the biodiesel and renewable diesel sectors. He believes that using the product on the farm is the best way to support the market.

“It’s a product that we’ve developed, that we’ve raised, and it should be No. 1 on our priority list to use it,” Atkinson says.

The “Plan A Through F” Mindset Is Needed

Beneath all the programs and markets, the three growers say long-term profitability still depends on flexibility: having enough tools and plans on the shelf to adjust to whatever the season and markets throw at them.

The need for flexibility shows up in day-to-day decision-making. Atkinson describes his operation, based near Great Bend, as one that constantly shifts among no-till, cover crops, chemistry options and even occasional tillage, depending on the year’s weather, pests and markets.

“It seems like we have plan A, B, C, D, E and F, and depending on what gets thrown at us and what Mother Nature gives us, we have to figure out what plan to run,” he says. “Last year, I had a beautiful plan together. It was all going to work. And I think we were down to plan D before we got finished up.”

Chapman takes a similar view. He says farmers like having “a lot of tools in the toolbox,” even ones they rarely use.

“As the world’s always changing, we want to be proactive and we want to do stuff that we can voluntarily do on our farm,” he says. “Move towards that goal of leaving the farm better than you found it, and hope the day never comes that something’s your only option.”

Isley says programs such as Farmers for Soil Health, along with EQIP, CSP and state or watershed initiatives, help move more growers toward that toolbox mentality by reducing risk.

In her view, profitable sustainability isn’t about any single practice, but about using the right mix of programs, premiums and practices to fit each farm.

“I think we often are hesitant to look for help, because we want to be self-reliant,” she says. “But sometimes it really makes a difference if we look for technical assistance and for those resources that are out there and available to us.”

Isley, Chapman, and Atkinson shared their perspectives in a webinar, “How Sustainable Production and Economic Viability Can Coexist,” on Thursday. The program was hosted by Agri-Pulse in partnership with the United Soybean Board.

Grains Slide Further With Oil as Funds Sell: Where Do the Markets Find Support?

Thu, 07 May 2026 16:23:56 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were all lower to start Thursday.

Grains Continue to Slide with Crude Oil
Grain markets are continuing to slide lower with the falling crude oil market and the idea the Iran war may be ending soon.

However, Darin Newsom, senior market analyst for Barchart, says he thinks the odds of a peace accord with Iran and reopening the Strait of Hormuz are between slim and none.

So while the funds are liquidating positions in the grains to shed some risk, it may not last.

“It makes for nice headlines and as we’ve talked about before these markets are all driven by headlines. The reality is the war isn’t somehow mysteriously all over or miraculously completely over. I’m sure there’s still missiles firing. I’m sure there’s still bombs going off. And so what we’ll find out most likely over the weekend, because that’s when these things tend to happen, is that there is no peace, that there is no ceasefire,” he explains.

So he says the markets will need to adjust again coming out of this weekend.

How Far Could Crude Oil and Grains Fall?
Currently the crude oil market is buying into the peace talks and grains futures are falling as a result, especially corn and bean oil which are biofuels derivatives.

So how much lower will prices fall before finding chart support especially as many contracts are nearing some key technical levels?

Newsom says, “We’ve seen so much buying coming into the commodity sector we’ve had these predictive market sites promoting the fact that they’re better gamblers quote unquote investors, can trade commodities basically without regulation by CFTC. And so they’ve been hustling. They’ve been baiting folks and getting people into the markets.”

However, now these speculative traders are getting out.

“So, there’s no real magic level that these markets come down to. What they’re going to have to do is come back to where there is some intrinsic value support, some fundamental support. And as we see, basically across the board in the grain sector is that basis is weak. So the
intrinsic value is weak in relation to where these futures markets have gone. That leaves a lot of room for liquidation. It leaves a lot of room for these markets to come down,” he adds.

He thinks there will be some buying coming out of the weekend in the energy sector which will support soybean oil and soybeans, maybe even corn.

Buying Resume Ahead of China Summit?
Still, once the dust settles the focus will turn towards next week’s meeting with China and the possibility of soybean and other ag purchases.

President Trump’s social media posts have been optimistic regarding the meeting and Newsom says painting a picture about the strong relationship between the two countries and how it will lead to increased China demand for agriculture goods, which has driven some buying in the grains and especially soybeans.

Newsom is skeptical about a meaningful and transparent deal or one that focuses on agriculture. However, he thinks the market will buy into the meeting on those hopes.

“Yes, I would expect the grains sector, for those two reasons, to rally next week. Is there going to be anything really come out of this? No. There’s going to be talk of computer chips, and there’s going to be this and that. But as far as U.S. ag is concerned, nothing’s going to change,” he adds.

China News Priced Into Soybeans?
The other concern is that soybeans have already had a rally on hopes for that additional demand as they are nearly $2 higher than a year ago. That means the market could fade any deal with China.

However, Newsom says some of that premium has come from the soybean oil market and biofuels demand which isn’t going away.

“A lot of what’s happened in the soybean market has to do with soybean oil. Again, if we look at bean oil, we know that the funds have gone to a record large long and record large net long futures position here of late. So that’s really been what’s been pulling soybeans higher,” he says.

Soybean Oil Priced in Processing Demand?
Soybean processing demand has been stout due to record crush margins tied to the new RVO blending levels into biofuels and that has helped drive the soybean oil market into new highs.

“That isn’t necessarily going away,” he points out.

However, crude oil and heating oil or diesel fuel prices have also driven the rally and if they cool will it also mean a top is in the bean oil market?

“To me, we’ve most likely built in the bulk of this explosion in demand. And we can attach a bit of an asterisk from the biofuels standpoint,” he adds.

Additionally, diesel fuel prices are likely to stay elevated even if crude oil prices fall due to record tight inventory. So if diesel prices stay high, that should support bean oil prices.

“We just ran a study showing just the one-month correlation is up near 100%. And I know correlation does not prove causation but anytime you get 94%, 95%, it raises an eyebrow, and there’s been a tight correlation between the two markets. That has brought funds into the market,” he says.

Export Demand
Biofuels and record soybean crush are making up for some of the lost exports this year to China. While it is normal seasonally for soybean exports to cool, weekly exports were a marketing year low of 5.2 million bu. and to date soybean sales are down 23% from last year.

Corn exports were at 53.6 million bu. which were strong while wheat exports at 2.9 million bu. were also week.

Corn exports to date were up 29% from a year ago.

“But what we’re seeing is if we take those total shipments and we project them out based on the average of what we normally have shipped this point of year, that pace projection for corn continues to come down. The trend since basically last fall has been for that pace projection to come down. You know, yes, we still have solid demand. Yes. You know, it’s still going to come in above last year’s reported shipments by the time we get to the end of the marketing year.”

So the market has already built in the most bullish scenario for U.S. corn export demand.

“And at this point, you know. the future spreads and basis are still weak. You know, so if we look at national average basis, it’s still running at or below the previous 10-year low weekly closes. So, I mean, so it just tells us that supplies are still adequate. Available supplies are still adequate to meet demand,” he adds.

Wheat Rally Over?
The wheat market was the first to climb to two-year highs in the winter wheat contracts, but has had a big correction removing war and weather premium.

So is the lower production of HRW wheat factored in already? Newsom thinks so.

“The reality is that the hard red winter crop has been hurt. We know that. I’ve talked to folks from the Southern Plains. The 2026 crop has been hurt. Again, if we look at new crop future spreads, they’re still covering a neutral, at best, level of calculated full commercial carry. So the commercial side of the market was saying, look. We may have smaller production this year, but it’s not going, at least right now, it’s not that dramatic. It’s not going to change the supply and demand situation all that much. Plus, you know, basis versus the July and September futures contracts is incredibly weak at this point, heading into harvest, you know, across the far Southern plains.”

A few weeks ago the speculators were also buying wheat on headlines, so there was money flowing into the complex, even SRW wheat.

“So this money flow, particularly in the Chicago market, that’s the more heavily traded futures market, was coming into wheat for no reason whatsoever. I mean, we’ve got Chicago, we’ve got soft red winter spreads covering 90% plus calculated full commercial carry. That’s not bullish. That’s not fundamentally bullish. Yet the money was pouring in. And so that money’s probably starting to come back out. And so regardless of how much damage has been done to the hard red winter crop, if we continue to see selling coming into the soft red winter crop, it’s going to spill over into hard red winter, particularly as harvest starts rolling along,” he explains.

Oklahoma Wheat Crop Cut
That may be why the market did not react to the results of the Oklahoma crop tour. The crop was only 47.8 million bushels versus 106.4 last
year.

He says, “The market didn’t care about it.”

Cattle Fall, But Beef Demand Is Not
Cattle futures were lower on Thursday with the rest of the complex despite some light cash trade so far this week at higher money.

The market is seeing some profit taking but there is no evidence of consumer demand rationing yet on beef according to Newsom, even with higher gas prices. At least not yet.

“You know, the choice has to be made between fuel or high priced beef. And so, you know, yes, we’ve seen gasoline crumble this week. But again, I don’t think it’s permanent. So I think there is some concern. There’s still some concern in the cattle industry and the beef, that these prices just simply aren’t sustainable, that at some point U.S. consumers are going to have to make that choice. They’re going to have to
make the choice to pay more for gasoline and less for beef. And we haven’t really seen it yet. I’ve been anticipating, I’ve been looking for it, for this change to less expensive proteins, but we just aren’t seeing those signs yet. So it’s been resilient, but I still think it’s coming,” he says.

Grains Plunge With Oil, Peace Talks: Is the Rally Over?

Wed, 06 May 2026 21:55:54 GMT

Grain and hog markets were lower on Wednesday with cattle higher.

Grains Tank With Crude Oil
Grains markets were lower in tandem with the plunge in crude oil on headlines of peace talks and a possible end to the Iran war. If the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened how much lower could grain futures fall with energy markets?

Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.

“If oil continues to slide sharply lower, you know, that’s obviously going to be a big headwind for the grain markets. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe chew through this headline quicker than we saw earlier in the year and maybe get the grain markets to trading back to their fundamental backdrop and the uncertainties that lie there,” he says.

Market Hit Technical Resistance
Corn also saw technical headwinds come into play according to Sloup as July corn made a double top.

“We saw July corn futures bump up against those March highs, $4.84, $4.87 1/2, tag that top to a tee and then set back. And if you look back all the way to last spring, that was also kind of a key inflection point for the market as well. You had the RSI or the relative strength index getting into overbought territory, which has really only happened about four or five times over the last year and a half. And each of those times, you know, we did see a correction of about 10 to about 30 cents. So somewhere in that ballpark, which is what we got today. So maybe a little bit more weakness here in the near term,” he explains.

New crop December corn though he thinks can trade on its own merit once the market stabilizes.

Is the Grain Rally Over?
Sloup is not sure the grain market rally is over due to the uncertainties surrounding acreage, yield and fertilizer. That will continue to keep fund or managed money traders interested in buying commodities.

“You’ve got fertilizer concerns and you talk about the energy markets as well. I don’t think that the energy markets or crude oil specifically is going to drop straight back down to where we’re trading 50 or 60 bucks. I think those prices probably stay somewhat elevated. And the concern there was get longer, higher for longer energy prices, and that feeds into the inflation narrative. And that props up commodities as a whole and continues to draw in some managed money participation, which we’ve seen in these grain markets for the better part of really the year,” he says.

So, he thinks the pullbacks are still buying opportunities. “Maybe more so in those new crop contracts.”

Soybeans Also See Technical Resistance
Soybeans had also hit technical resistance and drug down by crude oil the market went down and closed below the breakout points on the charts.

“So, we’re kind of right back down there to that breakout point that we saw about a week and a half ago. I think it was April 29th that we broke out above that range. And now we’re just retesting it and hopefully being able to defend that. That’s going to be a key area to keep the market in check. If we break and close back below there, potentially we see another 20 to 30 cents of downside here in the near term. But again, I think we potentially settle back into that choppy sideways range,” he explains.

However, new crop soybeans have had a more bullish chart pattern than old crop.

Soybean oil also hit new contract highs before reversing lower with crude oil but Sloup doesn’t think the market did technical damage.

“It was a big pullback in the bean oil market but with what we saw in the oil complex, I don’t think it was all surprising. Really not a whole lot of damage on the chart but a bit of a caution flag here in the next week’s trade,” he adds.

Awaiting China Meeting
The soybean market should be supported with the China summit next week May 14 and 15 and there could even be some buying ramping up into the meeting on optimism about the 25 MMT new crop soybean business being confirmed.

Sloup says, “I think that certainly kind of keeps funds interested and playing, so to speak. Funds have shown an appetite in the soybean complex really all year, as well as the corn market. So I wouldn’t be surprised the optimism build going into that.”

Broader Fund Buying in Grains
Sloup says there is also optimism growing about future expectations in other market.

“You don’t have to look too far to see what’s going on in the equity complex, whether it could be the S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow, etc. Just massive participation from money managers and potential. They start to look at commodities in a similar fashion here this year. Commodities have been pretty quiet over the last couple of years. But when you zoom out and look at the historical commodity super cycles, as we like to refer to them as, they really start with the base metals, precious metals, and then flow into energy. The next year to drop would be the agricultural complex.”

Last year money managers were moving into metals, this year energy and next is the grain markets.

Has Wheat Topped?
Wheat markets were lower removing war premium but have also been removing weather premium according to Sloup.

“A lot of uphill sledding for the wheat market and it is the wheat market so it can be a little bit more irrational for lack of better terms. We had the big move higher but I think you know looking back about a week and a half ago, we had that big blow off top, new highs for the move, and then a sharp reversal. And you just saw that snowball on itself. So, $6.60 is going to be the big level to hold for that Kansas City contract. That was the breakout point and kind of the old resistance area. If we can continue to defend that, I think that the Kansas City contract. Probably holds firm and continues to mark higher highs and higher lows. Breaking close below that would make me a little bit more nervous,” he says.

The Chicago contract has done more technical damage. He says, "$6.10 to $6.16, that’s a 20 and 50 day moving average. That’s the line in the sand that we want to see hold below that. You know, there’s potentially another 30 cents a downside,” he adds.

Wheat Production Cuts In WASDE?
Will USDA made any meaningful cuts to wheat production in the May 12 WASDE?

Sloup says, “I don’t know that they’re going to make any significant adjustments. I’m not really expecting them to. I would say that the market will trade this USDA report rather quickly. And then it’s probably going to be back to headlines and what’s going on in the corn and soybean market and potentially those markets feed on each other as far as the money flow goes.”

Cattle Continue Recovery
Cattle futures were up for a second day and continue to try to recover from last Friday’s key reversals with help from higher early cash.

“Cash continues to be the leader in that market and really hold a good foundation underneath things as well as just the technical landscape of things. We tested the 20 -day moving average earlier in the week. That will be probably a key inflection point, $249.25 to $250. Break and close below there, potentially you get some long liquidation. But again, the fundamental backdrop, the herd size, the cash trade continues to be just a solid foundation for this market,” he says.

But still he says cattle are resilient. “And whenever we see the turbulence, like we saw earlier in the week, it’s almost like holding a beach ball down underwater or trying to press one down underwater where you can only push it so far down and then it pops back twice as high as you pushed it down. So that continues to be the theme for the cattle market. It seems that dips are buying opportunities.”

Plus, funds are defending their longs according to Sloup.

“They have a net long position of currently about 131,000 contracts, which is historically large, but off of the recent highs that we’ve seen,” he adds.

The one concern he has is a black swan event. “I guess the thing that would make me potentially nervous would be outside market headlines or a potential border reopening, but trying to time those is nearly impossible. So for now, dips are potentially buying opportunities. Yeah, I’m sure lower corn futures, lower gas prices Probably helped out the cattle market and some total here today as well.”

Cattle, Restest the Highs?
He thinks the cattle market can retest the record highs and negate last Friday’s reversal.

“It’s really not all that far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to grind and push to the upside. With regards to the oil market, I think it’s interesting. I would almost look at a retracement in oil futures as a potential bearish catalyst. If you look at the correlation
between those, they’ve been trading almost in tandem, obviously not today. But I think that you probably look at that more as an inflation hedge rather than just risk on, risk off,” he states.

Hogs Lower....Again
Hog futures were back lower on Wednesday unable to extend Tuesday’s gains. So what is the problem with the hog market?

Sloup says, “I wish I had a good answer for you. We’ve been trying to be optimistic here on hogs as of late, but it just continues to mark lower highs and lower lows for that June contract, the 100 level. obviously has a little bit of psychological significance behind it and seems to have a gravitational pull to it as well this week. I think if we can defend that, you know, potentially we can carve out a low here, but not only do the bulls need to defend that, but we need to see consecutive closes out above $102, $102.50. That’s the 20 and 200 day moving averages. Consecutive closes out above there, maybe neutralizes some of the technical damage that we’ve seen over the last two months.”

Funds are only long about 46,000 futures. So no huge conviction to the downside or to the upside. It seems like they might be in a wait and see mode from these levels he adds.

A Frustrating Spring: Spotty Spring Rains Push Southwest Iowa Planting Slightly Behind

Wed, 06 May 2026 18:33:18 GMT

USDA’s latest Crop Progress Report showed as of Sunday, 22 percent of Iowa’s corn crop is planted, which is right in line with the five-year average. Soybean planting sits at 11 percent, which is just slightly behind. But those statewide numbers don’t tell the whole planting story this year. In southern Iowa, spotty spring showers are creating a far more uneven planting picture for farmers trying to make progress in the field.

In the far southwestern corner of Iowa, farmer Pat Sheldon is finally back in the field and relieved to see planters rolling again after a stop-and-start spring.

“We’ll be 25 or 30 percent done with the beans by the end of the day,” says Pat Sheldon, a farmer from Percival, Iowa.

While Sheldon prefers to be wrapped up planting by now, this season is running just a bit behind his typical pace.

“Usually we like to try to have almost everything done by now. We’re shooting for the end of April, but we usually don’t make it. So we’re a little behind where we normally are,” Sheldon says.“For no sooner than we started, we’ve come right along.”

About 80 percent of his corn is already planted, but some acres remain too saturated to finish, especially on his heavier ground.

After being out of the field for much of the past week due to wet conditions, Sheldon says the moisture hasn’t been as severe as in other parts of the region, but still enough to delay progress.

“We’re not as wet as it’s been east and south, but just enough to keep you out,” Sheldon says.

Even so, he is confident that progress will accelerate quickly if the forecast holds.

“The forecast looks good for here anyway, dry weather for a week or so, and I can get a lot done on the bottom when it’s dry,” Sheldon says.“ Just need dry weather and sunshine and let us work. It won’t take long. It’ll go in fast once it stays dry like this for a few days.”

Input costs have been a concern across agriculture, but Sheldon says his operation avoided the worst of recent fertilizer price spikes by planning ahead.

“We had all of our dry on last fall and over half of our anhydrous before it got too nasty for us to keep going, and we finished it up this spring,” Sheldon says. “We had it all pre-bought before all the prices went crazy, so we were fortunate on that aspect.

With planting back up and running this week, Sheldon says their operation is “in good shape,” and it’s that sense of stability is a stark contrast to conditions just seven years ago.

Sheldon’s family farm is situated next to the Missouri River. It’s fertile ground that’s been in his family for generations. But in 2019, Sheldon’s farm was devastated by flooding along the Missouri River, with water levels reaching several feet high in areas that are now being planted.

“There was probably three feet of water where we’re standing. Nothing got planted in the bottom ground. There was some stuff in the hills, but that was about it,” says Sheldon.

The floodwaters lingered for months, leaving lasting reminders still visible today.

“The water was here about 100 days. It was late June, I think, when they closed the breach,” Sheldon says.

And he says for the water lines still stained on the rain bins, it’s a constant reminder of what the Missouri River can take away, often without warning.

“You have a reminder every day,” says Sheldon. “You see it every day.”

Farming along the Missouri River means managing both risk and resilience. Despite the challenges, Sheldon says recent years have brought more favorable growing conditions, and he’s hopeful this year is shaping up to be the same.

“Are you optimistic about this growing season,” we asked.

“Very, very, as far as raising a crop,” Sheldon says of his outlook for 2026. “We’ve got decent moisture, probably better than we had going in last year. We’ve been lucky the last two or three years—timely rains, not a lot of rain, but at the right time—and we’ve raised really good crops. We’re hoping for more of the same.”

Metabolic Weed Resistance Crisis Builds Across The Heartland

Wed, 06 May 2026 16:50:37 GMT

Waterhemp, Palmer amaranth and some other tough broadleaf weeds and grasses are no longer slipping past just single herbicides. Across the Corn Belt and beyond, they are tolerating entire herbicide programs. Weed scientists say that pattern points to a critical issue more farmers are facing: metabolic resistance.

Unlike traditional target-site resistance, which is often specific to a single herbicide class, metabolic resistance is even worse because it can confer cross-resistance to multiple, unrelated herbicide groups .

Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Extension weed scientist often warns that when a tough weed like waterhemp learns to metabolize one herbicide, it becomes easier for it to “learn” to detoxify others. That ability has helped lead to the 7-way resistance with waterhemp seen in some Illinois counties, according to weed scientist Patrick Tranel, one of Hager’s colleagues.

At least 13 states have reported having some degree of “highly suspected” or confirmed cases of metabolic weed resistance. Here are three of the broadleaf weeds demonstrating metabolic resistance and states where they’re located:

Along with these broadleaf weeds, some common and giant ragweed, marestail/horseweed, annual (Italian) ryegrass and barnyardgrass populations have also demonstrated metabolic resistance.

(Weed Science Society of America, GROW, BASF, Syngenta)

Target-site resistance can be identified through DNA tests. But metabolic resistance is a “guessing game” involving potentially dozens to hundreds of genes working in tandem, making it difficult for scientists and farmers to know which products will still work in their specific fields.

Tommy Butts sees the trend for metabolic resistance taking root in Indiana. He says HPPD resistance in waterhemp is “getting widespread,” and the failures are expanding to other chemistries as well.

“We had more complaints last year about things like mesotrione or Callisto starting to fail, which is really scary in the corn acres,” says Butts, Purdue University Extension weed scientist. “Corn is supposed to be our easy year to control waterhemp, and now, all of a sudden, we start losing Callisto.” He addresses this in detail in the latest Purdue Crop Chat .

The bad news does not stop there.

“You start talking auxins and glufosinate, and we have confirmed resistance in the state to those,” he says. “I wouldn’t say that’s as widespread, but it’s definitely popping up.”

With metabolic resistance chipping away at PPOs, HPPDs, atrazine partners, auxins and glufosinate, the old playbook of “just switch products” no longer works well.

Glufosinate alone 😀⁰Mesotrione alone 😕⁰Glufosinate + mesotrione 🔥😎

That’s the power of effective herbicide tank mixtures.

Deploying synergistic tank mixes with multiple effective sites of action is critical for improving weed control and helping delay herbicide resistance… pic.twitter.com/FggZJrQQ1Q
— Rodrigo Werle (@WiscWeeds) May 6, 2026

“Hammer With Residuals” And Build Effective Combinations

Butts’ first message to corn and soybean farmers is straightforward: no more solo herbicide passes in the field.

“We have to hammer weeds with effective residuals and then mix up our posts as much as possible,” he says.

In his view, that means at least two things for row-crop growers. First, use layered residual programs that keep fields clean as long as possible and reduce the number of emerged weeds that ever see a post pass. Second, use post-emerge applications that combine multiple, truly effective modes of action at full labeled rates.

Cutting rates, he warns, is exactly how growers “train” metabolism-based resistance to take root.

With soybean trait systems, he pushes hard against relying on a single flagship product.

“If we’re growing Enlist soybeans, don’t just rely on Enlist and don’t just rely on Liberty,” Butts advises. “Do the tank mix. The tank mix trumps everything.”

This field shows the result of waterhemp seeds that were spread during harvest by a combine.

(Aaron Hager, University of Illinois)

Pay More Up Front To Avoid Making Expensive “Revenge Sprays”

Metabolic resistance can thrive when weeds are hit with chemistry they can partially tolerate. That is why Butts keeps coming back to strong, early, soil-applied programs.

He hears pushback from farmers every year on using multiple products in the tank.

“A lot of people tell me, ‘Well, it costs way too much up front with $20 for a pre. Corn gets even more expensive,’” he acknowledges.
However, Butts points to work by Purdue University Extension and other states showing those dollars pay off when the entire season is measured.

“If you can get a strong residual program out and get it activated, the whole-season economics of it makes sense,” Butts says. “It’s consistently shown that if you have that strong pre up front, you don’t have what I like to call the revenge sprays in August, where we’re going across the field three different times trying to kill waist-high waterhemp.”

Check out this tool from GROW on how to address waterhemp specifically.

Protect Herbicide Tools To Extend Their Use

As more herbicide modes of action come under pressure, Butts singles out metribuzin as an example of a product that still pulls its weight in soybeans.

“Metribuzin is a big one in soybeans, because we don’t have a lot of resistance to that,” he says.

“I will also put in the plug for AMS in general, across the board,” Butts says. “That always helps with some of those products… when we start getting later in the season, we get more stressed weeds. AMS even tends to help there.”

Butts does caution farmers that AMS is not allowed in dicamba tank mixes for XtendFlex soybeans.

Underlying all of it is a blunt warning about what happens if growers decide to skimp on their weed control efforts.

“If you let it go even one year, now you’ve made yourself a mess for the next five to 10 years,” he says. “You’ve got to try and stay on top of weeds as much as possible.”

5 Practical Recommendations To Address Metabolic Resistance

Because metabolic resistance is so unpredictable, weed scientists have shifted their advice away from “rotating chemicals” toward a “zero-threshold” approach to control. The following metabolic resistance management recommendations have been presented by Aaron Hager, University of Illinois Weed Scientist, and Beck’s agronomists:

1. The primary focus of metabolic resistance management should be on decreasing the weed seed bank. This means that weeds must be eliminated before they ever go to seed.

2. A robust residual herbicide program should be used, not because residuals represent a different herbicide family but because they eliminate weeds at the earliest growth stages – slashing contributions to the weed seed bank.

3. Physically cutting weeds out of the crop must be included in the management plan, because physical elimination of weed escapes further slashes contributions to the weed seed bank.

4. Post-herbicide programs should shift from calendar-based timing to scouting-based timing. Once weeds break through a pre-emerge residual program, they must be eliminated. Such early targeting further slashes contributions to the weed seed bank.

5. Mechanical techniques, field cultivators, etc., should be used where possible to further the cause of decreased seed production.

Grains See Profit Taking, Hedge Pressure Off Highs: Cattle Stage Recovery

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:20:50 GMT

Grains ended lower on Tuesday with livestock higher.

Corn and Soybeans Ease on Profit Taking
Grains were lower on Tuesday seeing some profit taking after corn and soybeans made some new highs for the move on Monday.

Greg McBride of Allendale, says the market also saw some farmer selling and hedge pressure.

“Especially with the July contract going up and meeting that same high that it made back in March. It looks like an opportunity for these producers to get some of the last gas sales on old crop. You saw most of the negativity was up front, those May and July contracts.

December corn and soybeans also retested recent highs before hitting chart resistance.

He says, “The beans were up at just about their highs. The old crop beans, their old highs, are within 15 to 25 cents of it. So there’s some concerns about maybe getting up to the nosebleed section, especially at this time of the year when the markets do tend to put tops in. Anywhere from May to early June.”

Crude Oil Anchors Losses
The lower crude oil market also weighed on corn and soybeans and even wheat according to McBride.

“We see the market step back on Tuesday with the crude but we’re playing this back and forth game. So I think you’ve got to be careful about where some of the strength or weakness is coming from,” he points out.

He says money has been flowing into the grains due to the energy component but without a fundamental push it can easily reverse.

Fast Planting Pace
Another factor weighing on corn and soybeans was the fast planting pace at 38% nationally on corn, 4% ahead of average. Soybean planting was also at 33%, which is 10% ahead of the five year average.

Although the trend has been growing the last few years plant soybeans early this pace does support production. “Usually being ahead of pace does mean that we’re going to see a trend or above on on yields barring any major weather issues,” he says.

Plus, he says in areas that were struggling just a few days of favorable weather can result in some major progress.

“I think the guys in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, where they’re a little bit slower, we’ll see that pick up here over the next couple of weeks too,” he adds.

Soybeans Well Supported Ahead of China Meeting
McBride thinks that especially soybeans will be supported on any breaks heading into next week’s trade summit in China.

“I think that’s part of the reason that we’ve seen the bounce recently. You go back to October when we saw this similar lead up to the meeting between Trump and Xi. I don’t know that we get anything out of this for soybeans. It’ll probably turn into something more for agricultural in general purchases, but it’s definitely something the market’s going to be watching for,” he says.

He’s in the camp that the extra 8 MMT of old crop soybeans mentioned by President Trump is unlikely but if it is that would shock the market.

“We haven’t heard anything about that since early February. So if that comes out, that will be a market mover, especially for those soybeans,” he says.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact
Even if the China buys the 25 MMT of new crop soybeans the market may sell off anyway according to McBride.

“The 25 million metric tons for this year, for 27 and 28, I think you’ve got to have that priced in already,” he explains.

Now it’s one of those things where we are status quo. You’ve got to see some sort of a weather issue or you’ve got to see. I know everybody wants to

Wheat Consolidation Continues
Wheat futures continued to consolidate off the recent two year highs taking out risk premium, including weather premium with rain in the forecast for drought areas says McBride.

“Well, the wheat’s an interesting one because it’s so friendly depending on where you’re at. The Southwestern belt is dry. There’s a lot of acres that are going to be up for abandonment. There’s a lot of areas now, right, as we talk, that this week, this tonight, or on Tuesday night into Wednesday, you may be seeing some frost, some freezes, even some snow in some of those areas. So there’s some concerns about this crop out there,” he says.

However, the market is also driven by the crude oil market. “So you see the weakness in the crude on Tuesday and the wheat followed it. What happens if we go up another $4 or $5 in crude Wednesday or Thursday does the wheat take off to the high side again?”

Wheat Holds Support
Wheat futures did hold support on the charts to keep the uptrend intact and the funds defending their long position.

He says, “For right now, and you’ve seen the Minneapolis position for the funds has gone to a record long. KC is long. Chicago is just slightly long at this point when it comes to the managed money positions. That’s not a situation that you take lightly. They don’t tend to stick into those
long positions for wheat. But when they start to build and they build like they have, especially in the KC in the Minneapolis on either drought or smaller crop because of less acres, that could be a situation that maybe sticks around for a little bit. And maybe what we’re doing really is resetting the overall dominant range to a little bit higher in that wheat market.”

Funds have not been this long in wheat since June of 2022.

May WASDE Confirm Smaller Crop?
Will the May WASDE confirm the smaller winter wheat crop or will the market get that news from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour next week?

McBride says, “Yeah, I think it’s the wheat tour will probably have a better look at it. You’ve still got some areas that are coming out of dormancy. I don’t know how much the USDA is going to want to step out on their WASDE report, but I think that the wheat tour is going to tell us a lot as we go through it.”

The rate of abandonment may be the key which can be a wild card. “I hear a lot of producers talking about abandonment in January, February, but then it comes out that they end up with a crop that’s 30 to 50 bushels. I do think just based off of some of the customers that I’ve talked to, there is going to be more abandonment than other years. It’s hard to gauge at this point right now. I know there’s a lot of insurance guys out there checking fields to see what’s available to them.”

Cattle Market Recovers Tuesday
Live and feeder cattle futures staged a recovery on Tuesday after holding key support areas on Monday’s set back and with lower corn prices.

However, McBride says there was also some early cash trade at higher money of $255 to $257, which is unusual this early in the week.

“So you had a strong cash trade last week. We were up $8 or $9 from the previous week. You started getting this early week cash trade on Monday and then some on Tuesday is an interesting look because we don’t see that very often. So to have steady to even up to two dollars higher does push this market a little bit,” he explains.

Plus, boxed beef was higher on Tuesday. So, he thinks Monday’s action was tied to news of the DOJ probe of meat packers.

“This is a market that’s in an uptrend and has been in a long-term uptrend. So lately, these sell-offs, especially when it’s $5, $6, $7 in the feeders, has been a buying opportunity for speculators especially,” he adds.

So higher cash could negate Friday’s key reversal.

DOJ Probe
With an announcement expected Friday on more action against the meat packing industry to get beef prices down that could spook the market again.

However McBride says this is not the first investigation and no changes have ever resulted from it.

“It’s one of those things, it needs to go further. They need to find something or they need to do something about it. But just having a probe, I don’t think that does anything for us substantially,” he adds.

Hog Market Bounces
The hog market finally bounced off of four month lows with the help of the rally in cattle and as futures held support.

McBride says, “We took out support from like a week ago, two weeks ago on Monday. We took that low out on Tuesday. The reversal here looks good. I’m hoping what we’ve seen is we’ve finally seen a little bit of a fight for for seasonals in that market. You know, we talk about seasonals and all these other markets, but as you go into spring, you start to see the procurement for for summer grilling season. That’ll be the one to really watch when it comes to the to the pork side of things. Can we get some sort of a retest of, you know. just getting back up to kind of 50% retracement. That puts you around like $106, $105, something like that in those June, July, August contracts.”