U.S. Farm Report

USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden Says High-Level Washington Meeting Puts Fertilizer Industry on the Spot

Fri, 17 Apr 2026 20:09:58 GMT

The fertilizer market has been a growing point of tension in agriculture for years, but USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says recent meetings in Washington marked a more direct and wide-ranging confrontation between federal officials and the companies that dominate input supply. Those discussions, he says, were not limited to USDA alone but included a broader slice of the administration’s economic leadership, signaling how central fertilizer costs have become to the national conversation on food production and inflation.

Vaden says cabinet-level officials from the Department of Commerce and the U.S. Trade Representative were present, alongside USDA leadership and state agriculture commissioners from Iowa and Georgia. Fertilizer executives were also in the room, making the meeting a rare setting where policy makers, regulators and industry leaders sat together to address pricing, supply constraints and long-term market structure.

He says the purpose was not simply informational, but confrontational in the sense of putting real-world farm impacts directly in front of industry decision-makers.

“It was an opportunity for those other cabinet officials to hear from the fertilizer company executives,” Vaden says, “and for those fertilizer company executives to hear from the secretary and me, as well as our two state counterparts who joined, about the real harm that farmers are facing from uncertainty in the market and, equally as importantly, years of elevated prices.”

Vaden says what often gets lost outside agriculture is that the current fertilizer environment is not a short-term disruption, but the continuation of a multi-year pricing trend that has reshaped farm budgets.

“For people who don’t pay attention to ag every day like your listeners do, they may think this fertilizer thing came out of nowhere,” Vaden says. “But American farmers know that we’re on year five or more of elevated prices for fertilizer, and questions about adequate supply of all fertilizer types.”

He adds that the timing of the discussions is critical, as global geopolitical tensions are only adding pressure to already strained markets.

“So I see this as an opportunity now that the attention of everyone is focused on fertilizer, not just agriculture, to begin to solve the problem that has taken years to develop and that has been exacerbated by the current situation in the Middle East,” Vaden says. “So that we don’t find ourselves in another long-term question about fertilizer supply going forward.”

USDA Pushes Industry: Bring Projects Forward or Explain the Bottlenecks

As discussions continue with fertilizer companies, Vaden says USDA is shifting the conversation from general concern to specific accountability. Rather than broad discussions about market conditions, he says officials are now asking companies to identify concrete projects that could increase supply and to explain why those investments have not yet materialized.

This approach, he says, reflects a broader strategy inside the department to move beyond analysis and toward action, particularly in areas where supply constraints have persisted for years without meaningful change.

In meetings held both jointly and separately with industry leaders, Vaden says USDA has been consistent in its message to fertilizer companies.

“We are saying the same thing to everyone who comes before the department,” Vaden says. “Be a part of the solution, don’t be a part of the problem.”

He says that includes detailed questions about whether expansion projects are already in development but stalled due to permitting delays, regulatory barriers or capital constraints. In some cases, he says, USDA is asking companies to identify where federal or state action could realistically speed up timelines.

“We are asking them what projects they have in the pipeline that they can bring on board to create new fertilizer supplies, hopefully here domestically, but if necessary, near-shoring overseas,” Vaden says. “And are there steps that we can take to make those projects move faster? Are there permits that are held up? Are there states or localities that are holding up their expansions? Are there investments that they are looking for with regard to needing capital to be able to expand their production capacity?”

He adds the department is not approaching the issue passively, but actively pressing for answers.

“We’re asking as many questions as we are making declarative statements, and we’re trying to see what levers we can pull to get more supply on the market,” Vaden says.

Market Concentration at Center of USDA Concerns

Beyond supply timelines and permitting issues, Vaden says one of the core structural concerns in fertilizer markets is the level of consolidation, particularly in phosphate production where a small number of companies control a dominant share of supply.

He says that level of concentration raises fundamental questions about how prices are formed and whether farmers are receiving signals that reflect true market conditions.

With that in mind, Vaden says USDA is focusing heavily on competition and price discovery as part of its broader review of input markets.

“With one of our fertilizer markets, there are two companies that control 90% market share,” Vaden says. “Anybody, I don’t care whether it’s fertilizer or what any other commodity you want to talk about, if there are only two major players, how can anyone be sure that the price you are paying reflects actual market conditions?”

He says the issue is not simply about individual price spikes, but about whether enough competition exists to keep pricing behavior transparent and responsive.

“In order to have adequate price discovery in a market, you need multiple players,” Vaden says.

That concern, he adds, is one of the reasons fertilizer investigations already underway by federal agencies predate recent geopolitical disruptions and continue to expand.

Vaden Details Heated Meeting With Mosaic: “A Different Tune in My Conference Room”

Among the most pointed parts of Vaden’s interview are his comments about a recent face-to-face meeting with Mosaic, one of the most influential players in the phosphate fertilizer market. He says the discussion, held in his conference room just this week, was direct and, at times, uncomfortable, focusing heavily on production decisions, capacity investment and the company’s role in a highly concentrated global market.

Vaden says he challenged Mosaic on why additional production capacity has not been brought online in the United States over a long period of time, and what barriers the company believes are preventing expansion.

He says he left the meeting with clear expectations for follow-up information from the company, describing it as an assignment rather than a casual discussion.

“I gave them a homework assignment,” Vaden says. “I told them what I expected to see, and I hope that they will get back to me as soon as possible.”

But what stood out most to him, he says, was not just what was said in the room, but how it contrasted with the company’s public messaging.

So disappointed in this response, @MosaicCompany, especially as you decide to idle two fertilizer production facilities, removing 1 MMT of supply from the world market. 🚨

Our Great President and this Administration have our farmers' backs. 💪🌾

Any sleight of hand will not be… https://t.co/GTCxcBQNgi
— Secretary Brooke Rollins (@SecRollins) April 13, 2026

In his view, there was a noticeable difference between internal discussions and external communications, particularly on social media, where fertilizer policy debates have increasingly played out in public.

“And I will say, without being able to go into details, when they were in my office, they were singing a slightly different tune than they were signing on Twitter responding to the president’s Truth Social message that you noted,” Vaden says.

He uses that contrast to underscore what he sees as a broader disconnect between industry messaging and the realities USDA believes farmers are facing.

“We need more supply, we need answers, your company hasn’t provided either of those two things,” Vaden says. “It’s about time that you did.”

Industry Responses, Trade Policy Pressure and the Mosaic Question

While Vaden applies pressure to Mosaic, he notes that not all fertilizer companies are taking the same stance on trade policy and tariffs. He points specifically to Nutrien, which he says has indicated support for removing certain trade enforcement measures.

“I was very happy after I met with the Nutrien CEO that they came out and announced we don’t need this CVD order anymore,” Vaden says.

By contrast, he says Mosaic’s position on countervailing duties and phosphate trade enforcement remains unresolved, and that broader policy decisions are now effectively waiting on the company’s response.

He characterizes the situation as fluid but heavily dependent on industry input.

“Right now the question is in Mosaic’s court, if you will,” Vaden says. “And we’re waiting for an answer from them.”

He adds that regulatory or executive action is unlikely to be taken in a vacuum while negotiations and responses are still unfolding.

“One thing that I know as a lawyer is that there’s a whole lot more possible if you have consent of the parties than if you don’t,” Vaden says. “With consent, nearly all things are possible.”

Investigations Expand as USDA Seeks Farmer-Reported Data

Alongside industry meetings, Vaden says USDA is working with the Department of Justice and Federal Trade Commission on ongoing fertilizer market investigations, with a particular focus on pricing behavior and market transparency.

He says one challenge is the nature of pricing information itself, which often reaches farmers through informal channels and can change quickly.

“We’re asking questions and waiting for answers, and we need farmers’ help as part of our question asking,” Vaden says.

He describes a pattern many farmers have reported directly to USDA, where fertilizer prices are quoted in a way that encourages immediate purchase rather than delayed buying.

“I know in my own family’s operation that you get phone calls, and those phone calls tell you ‘Here’s what the price is now, and if you wait, here’s what the price will be later,’” Vaden says. “And that later price is never lower than the price that it is now.”

To address that, he says USDA is working on a confidential reporting system designed to protect farmer identity while improving data quality for investigators.

“If they trust us with their information, if they trust us with the facts that they have, they’ll be able to remain anonymous,” Vaden says. “And the companies under investigation will not know who shared what data with us.”

“This Has Been Going On for Too Long”

Vaden closes by emphasizing that fertilizer prices and supply constraints are not a new challenge for agriculture, but an entrenched issue that has persisted through multiple years and market cycles.

He says the administration is trying to shift both short-term supply conditions and long-term structural dynamics at the same time, adding that USDA’s goal is not temporary relief, but sustained changes in supply, competition and pricing stability.

“We are focused on getting new supplies here now, and not just now, but next year and the year after that and the years after that,” Vaden says. “So that we can have guaranteed new supplies over the long term.”

Vaden’s Message to Farmers: “We’re Saying the Same Thing in Public and in Private”

At the end of the conversation, Vaden returned to what he described as the central audience for everything USDA is doing on fertilizer: farmers themselves. He acknowledged frustration is not just growing, but it has become a defining sentiment across much of farm country as input costs remain elevated and supply questions persist year after year.

He emphasized USDA’s posture is not different depending on the room or the audience, whether speaking with industry executives, other federal agencies, or producers themselves.

“I want farmers to know that when I am sitting with representatives of other cabinet departments or when I am sitting with big fertilizer CEOs, I am saying the same thing in private that you hear me saying in public,” Vaden says. “I do not change my tune. I may be slightly more polite, but I am equally as direct in terms of telling them what I think the situation is.”

Vaden says that directness is rooted in what he believes farmers are already experiencing on the ground, particularly when it comes to fertilizer pricing volatility and uncertainty in purchasing decisions. He says producers are not misreading the situation — they are responding to real, long-running pressures.

He also acknowledges the emotional toll on producers is part of the reality USDA is hearing more frequently.

“I especially communicate to them that farmers have gone from exasperation to anger with the situation that we have now,” Vaden says. “They are not wrong to be feeling those emotions because they understand that this is not a new situation.”

Looking ahead, Vaden says USDA’s goal is not just to address short-term pricing spikes, but to change the underlying conditions that have kept fertilizer costs elevated for years. That includes expanding supply, increasing competition and improving long-term stability in input markets.

“This is an issue that has bedeviled American agriculture for at least five years, and it is time that it stopped,” Vaden says.

A "Disneyesque" Christmas: A Charming Small Town in Rural Arkansas Comes to Life in December

Wed, 24 Dec 2025 15:25:09 GMT

Driving through the Arkansas Delta this time of year, the view feels timeless. Cotton fields that once resembled freshly fallen snow now sit compressed into bright white bales, stacked neatly along quiet two-lane roads. It’s the same harvest scene farmers and families in this region have known for generations — one rooted in the land and shaped by the Mississippi River.

But just 45 miles north of Memphis, the road will take you on an unexpected turn. That’s where you’ll stumble upon Wilson, Ark. Home to about 800 people, its aesthetics look like a European village, and its roots date back to a family who founded the town in 1886.

“It’s a fascinating story of how Wilson was founded,” says Jeff Kmiec, CEO of Wilson. “The Wilson family literally started by timbering the area. Once they drained all the water and cleared the timber, Mr. Wilson decided there may be an opportunity to start farming. The soil is incredibly rich from the Mississippi River, and that’s what launched the city that still survives today.”

That agricultural foundation continues to define Wilson today. Fields of cotton, corn and soybeans stretch beyond the town limits, and farming remains the backbone of the surrounding economy. While the population remains small, the connection to the land remains strong, and it’s now a destination for those around the country, as it’s charm is a draw for many.

An Unexpected Look in the Delta

While Wilson’s roots are firmly planted in agriculture, its appearance often surprises first-time visitors. The town’s architecture feels out of place in the Delta — and that’s entirely by design.

“As it relates to the architecture, we’re blessed in that one of the Wilson children got married and was sent to England for their honeymoon,” Kmiec explains. “They became enamored and fell in love with English Tudor architecture. When they returned, they promptly remade the town in that style. It’s surprising to hear visitors say, ‘How is this here? I feel like I’m in a different country.’ But that’s what happened, and the Wilson family helped create a legacy we still enjoy today.”

The Tudor-style buildings, along with the town square, don’t exist as a novelty. They remain part of everyday life in a rural community that continues to evolve while honoring its past.

A Town Changes Hands — and Holds On

After more than 125 years under the Wilson family, the town entered a new chapter in 2010. That’s when the Wilson family decided to sell not just the buildings they owned in town, but their farmland as well.

“The farmland was the prize,” says Becton Bell, a local farmer and the mayor of Wilson. “It’s about 30,000 acres of fertile farmland that surrounds this town.”

When the town went up for sale, it brought uncertainty for the residents. The land might be valuable, but the unique town held memories, history and identity for those who called Wilson home.

“I think the first thought everybody had was, ‘Well, there goes the town,’” Bell says. “Everybody wanted the farm, but nobody’s going to want to keep the town up like the Wilson family. It actually turned into the opposite.”

Galen Lawrence and his family purchased the surrounding farmland, along with the town itself. A farmer and businessman, he first saw the value in the farmland. But it’s his wife who fell in love with the town.

A Farming Mindset Still Guides Wilson

Rather than fading, Wilson began to take on renewed purpose — guided by an owner who understands agriculture and the long view that comes with it.

“When they first purchased [the town], they decided they had to do something special here. Mr. Lawrence is a world traveler, and he decided to do something hospitality-wise.” Kmiec says.

From reopening the local restaurant and making it farm-to-table experience to creating a museum, it’s the little touches that make a big difference. One of the biggest attractions making Wilson a destination is the unique hotel that boasts hospitality.

The Lawrence family built The Louis, a boutique hotel that allows visitors to escape the hustle of everyday life in a memorable way. The rich history of the Arkansas Delta is sprinkled throughout the hotel and rooms. But what makes it so memorable is the fact this unique hotel offers charm and hospitality that rivals any major resort, with comfortable rooms and complimentary snacks and drinks, which might be why the hotel boasts exceptionally high guest ratings, especially for such a small town.

Lawrence might be a successful businessman and investor today whose vision is what you see within the hotel and many other areas of the town, but he understands the value of a rural area as he remains rooted in farming.

“He’s a farmer first and foremost,” Kmiec says. “He has a lot of other business interests, but he likes to set people up for success. When he’s farming, it’s always about planting seeds in fertile soil. That mindset continues today, where he wants to put people in positions where they can excel and be successful.”

That philosophy shows up today in restored buildings, local jobs and a downtown that feels cared for rather than commercialized, which pairs nicely with the architecture.

Wilson Lights Up Bringing the Magic of Christmas to Life

Those values become especially visible during the holiday season when the town of Wilson transforms into a gathering place for families. That’s when Wilson lights up, truly bringing the magic of Christmas to life.

“It’s important for me to do something that’s a legacy event for families,” Kmiec says. “My favorite time growing up was Christmas, spending it with my parents. With the Lawrence family’s blessing, we invest pretty substantially in a light show that’s almost Disneyesque. It’s choreographed to music, just under a million lights and snow-making machines, and every Friday and Saturday from Thanksgiving to New Year’s, Santa and Mrs. Claus arrive to greet children.”

The lights draw visitors, but the heart of the event remains community. From the beginning, the decision was made to keep the Christmas celebration free and accessible. There aren’t any entrance fees, it’s a display open for all to see.

For families who farm nearby or live in neighboring towns, the event offers something simple but meaningful: time together, shared tradition and memories that last long after the lights fade.

Why Wilson Is Magical Year-Round

For Kmiec, the draw of Wilson is something that can’t be manufactured. It’s unique to this rural Arkansas community, and one that’s only becoming more charming each year.

“If you’ve seen any Hallmark Christmas movie, or if you’re a fan of Americana and what makes this country great, that essence still lives here,” he says. “It’s special for us to be able to showcase that and tell people this is what makes the country great and why Wilson is as special as it is.”

Wilson calls itself “America’s Village.” In this Delta farm town, agriculture, community and tradition continue to define everyday life — shining especially bright during the Christmas season.

Water Fight With Mexico Leaves South Texas Farmer Unable to Plant Half His Acres

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 19:27:57 GMT

For South Texas farmers, the ongoing water dispute between the United States and Mexico isn’t an abstract policy issue. It’s a crisis that has reshaped planting decisions, reduced production and injected deep uncertainty into every growing season along the Rio Grande.

Brian Jones, a South Texas farmer, says years of shorted water deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty have forced him and many of his neighbors to dramatically scale back their operations. What once was a fully irrigated farming system has turned into a constant struggle to stretch limited water supplies across fewer acres.

“I believe it really starts to reach a crescendo in the 2023 crop year,” Jones says. “For 2024 and 2025, basically I’m only able to plant half of my farm because we don’t have enough water.”

Jones says the water shortages are not the result of drought alone, but of Mexico failing to live up to its treaty obligations. Under the 1944 agreement, Mexico is required to deliver water to the United States through the Rio Grande basin. However, U.S. officials and South Texas producers argue those deliveries have fallen well short in recent years.

“That’s exactly right,” Jones says, confirming that he has been unable to plant roughly half of his acres. “Going from fully irrigated to basically only being able to plant half the farm — and not even having full irrigation for that half — has been quite a struggle over the last couple of years.”

The reduced water supply has forced farmers to make hard decisions, prioritizing which crops and fields can survive with limited irrigation. Jones says even the acres that do get planted are often under-irrigated, increasing risk and lowering yield potential.

“Mexico has willfully held back water that they had,” Jones says. “That puts us in a huge shortfall.”

Hope on the Horizon?

Earlier this month, USDA announced it had reached an understanding with Mexico to release 202,000 acre-feet of water to the U.S., following heightened pressure from the Trump administration — including threats of tariffs if Mexico failed to comply. The announcement marked the most significant movement on the issue in years. But for growers on the ground, the news has been met with cautious optimism.

“I would say I’m both hopeful and skeptical,” Jones says. “I’m hopeful because President Trump and his administration really take the bull by the horns on this and bring the fight to Mexico.”

Jones says farmers in South Texas have long felt ignored as water shortages worsened, and he credits the current administration for taking a more aggressive stance.

“Under the previous administration, it’s like talking to a brick wall,” he says. “Under this administration, President Trump and Secretary Rollins really pick up the club and use it to bring Mexico to the table.”

Despite the agreement, Jones says trust remains an issue. Years of unmet commitments have made farmers wary of celebrating until water is actually flowing into the Rio Grande and irrigation systems.

“On the other hand, I’m still skeptical because Mexico has willfully withheld the water for a number of years,” Jones says. “Until it really starts flowing and they meet that full agreement of the 202,000 acre-feet, we’re still skeptical.”

Water Releases Reported to Start Immediately

According to Jones, Mexico indicates water releases should begin immediately, though geography and infrastructure mean the impact is not instantaneous for South Texas farmers.

“It should start this week,” he says. “It takes about three to four days for the water, once they release it in the lower parts of Mexico, to reach the Rio Grande. Hopefully by now, we start seeing that flow.”

Beyond the immediate relief, Jones says the water dispute highlights deeper concerns about fairness and competition. He believes the issue should be addressed in broader trade discussions, particularly as the U.S. reviews the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA).

“We actually hope it is a point of contention,” Jones says. “Not only is Mexico withholding water, they’re using that water to grow products we normally grow here in South Texas and compete directly in our marketing window. That creates a trade imbalance.”

Water Issue Could Be at the Center of USCMA Review

Jones says Texas lawmakers and agricultural groups are pushing to bring the issue into USMCA negotiations, arguing water compliance should carry real consequences.

“We’re hoping to use USMCA as a tool to put some punitive measures and some teeth into the water-sharing agreement,” he says.

Planting Decisions Uncertain

As planting season approaches, uncertainty remains front and center. Jones says decisions for the 2025 crop year will hinge almost entirely on whether Mexico follows through on its promises — and how quickly water arrives.

“We’re about 45 days from corn planting here in South Texas,” he says. “I’ll definitely get all my corn in, then switch over to milo. Cotton is the big question mark.”

Cotton planting typically begins in mid-March, leaving little margin for error if water deliveries fall behind schedule.

“All the details are supposed to be out by January 31, and they’re guaranteeing all that water by the end of March,” Jones says. “By early- to mid-March, we should know where they stand on deliveries, and that will shape how I plant this upcoming year.”

For now, Jones and other South Texas farmers are watching river levels, weather forecasts and diplomatic negotiations with equal intensity — hoping that this time, the water fight turns into real relief on the ground.

Moment of Truth: The Louisiana Farmer Who Captured Trump's Ear, Put Human Face on Ag Crisis

Fri, 19 Dec 2025 19:29:00 GMT

Rice country is hurting, badly.

Prices have collapsed to levels not seen in four decades, while production costs climb beyond $1,000 an acre. According to the American Farm Bureau Federation, rice farmers are projected to lose more than $360 per acre this year. For many operations, that kind of math pushes losses deeper into the red and pushes tough decisions closer to reality.

That financial pressure was front and center at the White House last week as President Donald Trump unveiled his Farmer Bridge Payments, but what captured national attention wasn’t just policy — it was a farmer.

Her words, delivered candidly and unscripted on live television, put a human face on the crisis gripping America’s rice farms and mills.

That producer is Meryl Kennedy.

A Family Business Rooted in Rice

Kennedy is the youngest of four daughters, carrying forward a family operation that stretches back nearly six decades. Her father began farming rice in the late 1960s, and over time the family expanded beyond production into milling and value-added markets. That vertical integration gives Kennedy a front-row view of how price volatility affects not just growers, but entire supply chains.

“So I’m actually second generation,” Kennedy says. “My father started as a farmer back in the late 1960s, and we continue to take rice from the farm to a finished product today.”

After returning home from college, Kennedy helped oversee the startup of the family’s rice mill in 2012. The mill steadily grew, sourcing rice from roughly 60 farm families who relied on the operation as a stable market outlet. For those growers, the health of the mill is closely tied to the health of the farm economy.

“We actually mill rice, distribute it to many large companies throughout the U.S. and internationally,” Kennedy says. “But then my sisters and I have our own brand called Four Sisters that we launch about five years ago.”

As president and CEO of Kennedy Rice Mill and co-founder of Four Sisters Rice, Kennedy balances brand development, export logistics and farmer relationships. That role places her at the intersection of domestic agriculture and global trade, a perspective that proved pivotal when she was invited to Washington.

An Unexpected Moment in the Spotlight

Kennedy was one of eight farmers invited to participate in the White House roundtable on Dec. 8. Like many producers attending policy discussions, she expected a private conversation focused on data and feedback. What she did not know until moments before entering the room is that the discussion will be broadcast live.

“And my sisters and I, because there are four of us — I’m the youngest of four daughters — started our own rice brand a few years ago to just tell the story of American agriculture that hadn’t really been told before,” Kennedy told Trump and the White House Cabinet members who attended the farmer roundtable that day. “But I wish I was here under better terms.”

As the conversation turned to the financial outlook for rice, Kennedy did not sugarcoat the situation. Her remarks reflect what growers have been telling lenders and suppliers for months: Margins are gone, and losses are mounting.

“I know that prices right now are the lowest they’ve been in over 40 years, so we’re going to struggle,” she continued. “We’re going to max out on our payments probably, so that’s something that I know those in Congress can potentially help us with to change.”

Kennedy says the magnitude of the moment did not fully register until after the cameras are rolling. Sitting beside the president, she realized she was speaking not just for her own operation, but for growers across the country.

“In fact, it still seems like it is a dream, I’m going to be honest with you,” she says. “At the beginning of this year, I had a feeling that it was going to be a very difficult year. But it really wasn’t until midway through the year that we just saw a drastic drop in prices that has continued month after month.”

Farmers Asked Her to Speak Up

Kennedy says her decision to engage directly with the administration was driven by the growers who supply her mill. As conditions worsen, those farmers began urging her to use her industry position to push for action.

“And so it really is my farmers urging me a month ago to write a letter to the president,” she says. “To explain the situation to him, to urge him to help our farmers.”

That outreach, Kennedy says, marked a turning point. What began as a letter quickly became a national conversation.

“We wrote that letter, and look what the president does,” she says. “He responded.”

Kennedy explains the collapse in rice prices cannot be understood without looking beyond U.S. borders. Rice, she notes, is not just another commodity; it is a staple food for much of the world, making global market dynamics especially complex.

“Rice is a global commodity. It is the means of survival for most of the planet on a daily basis,” she says. “I truly mean it that rice is more of a currency than it is a commodity.”

While the U.S. ranks fifth in the world for rice exports, Kennedy says heavy subsidization and overproduction by major exporting nations distort markets and undermine U.S. competitiveness.

“And what has been happening is that really since COVID, there’s been truly an overproduction,” she says. “Then we over-subsidize in these nations and then dump rice globally across the world.”

A Candid Exchange With a Call to Action

That backdrop set the stage for one of the most striking moments of the roundtable, as Kennedy directly addressed concerns about dumping and unfair trade practices. The exchange unfolded live, capturing the attention of producers watching from home.

“And we do believe that countries are dumping rice into this country today,” Kennedy said during the roundtable at the White House. “We’ve never seen imports this great.”

When pressed for specifics, she named the countries she believes are contributing to the problem.

“India, Thailand, even China into Puerto Rico,” she said. “Puerto Rico used to be one of the largest markets for U.S. rice. We haven’t shipped rice into Puerto Rico in years.”

As Kennedy listed off the countries, Trump turned to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and asked him to write the countries down. Kennedy said the moment was monumental.

“None of it is scripted,” she says. “He really called me to action, and I responded.”

“When he turns to Secretary Bessent and asks him to write these countries down, it really is a powerful moment,” she adds. “It’s a moment I’ll never forget.”

Aid Helps — But It’s Not Enough

The roundtable featuring farmers on Dec. 8 was intended to announce Farmer Bridge Assistance Payment Program, for which USDA is expected to release payment rates next week. Ahead of that official announcement, University of Arkansas economists estimate rice payments could approach $115 per acre, though statutory payment caps will limit the amount many farmers actually receive.

“You know, I’ve seen some other figures kind of siding more like $50, considering that $155,000 payment cap,” says Mollie Buckler, CEO of U.S. Rice Producers. “While I think it will help some farmers, this is not putting huge profits in their pockets.”

Buckler says the assistance might keep some producers afloat short-term, but it does not address the underlying market imbalance. Without structural changes, she warns, the industry will continue to contract.

“Absolutely,” Buckler says when asked if farmers could be forced out of business. “Possibly even up to a quarter of farmers having to make tough decisions.”

Pressing Trump to Love Rice

Despite the seriousness of the discussion, Kennedy’s exchange with Trump also included a lighter moment that resonated with viewers. The humor underscores a broader effort to build demand for U.S.-grown rice.

“And you love rice, right?” the president asked.

“I love rice,” Kennedy replied. “I’m going to get you to love rice too. The next time, you’re not going to have a button for a Coke, you’re going to have a button for rice.”

It was another moment that stole the spotlight, as Kennedy’s quick-witted response garnered laughs. Kennedy says she even surprised herself in that moment.

“It just came out,” she says. “I encourage everyone that doesn’t eat rice on a daily basis to think about making rice part of your diet.”

A Voice for Farmers

For Kennedy, the experience reinforces the importance of connecting consumers with the people behind their food. She says telling that story is now more crucial than ever as farm families navigate financial uncertainty.

“This has given me a voice to encourage people to think about where their food comes from,” she says. “To think about supporting American farmers.”

As rice producers confront one of the toughest years in decades, Kennedy’s message reflects a broader industry plea for fair trade, market transparency and a future where family farms can continue growing a crop that feeds the world.

California's Family Farms Are Disappearing, Meet the Farmer Fighting Back With Remarkable Determination

Fri, 28 Nov 2025 19:38:22 GMT

Walking the rows of Thomson Vineyards today, it is nearly impossible to imagine that just one year ago, every grape on this ranch — every single cluster — faced a fate no grower ever wants to consider.

In 2024, fourth-generation wine grower Jennifer Thomson watched as three hundred tons of grapes on her home ranch went unharvested. Not one ton had a buyer. Not one ton had a home.

It could have been the end of the story. Instead, Thomson decided it would be the beginning of a new one.

A Year of Unimaginable Loss

On a quiet hillside in Napa, Thomson still remembers standing among vines heavy with fruit — and feeling her stomach sink.

“This home ranch produces a little over 300 tons of grapes annually, and in 2024, nearly all of those 300 tons were dropped on the ground and went unharvested.”

For most farmers, that kind of loss would take generations to recover from. For Thomson, it became the fire that fueled the next chapter.

“Instead of that being the final chapter,” she says, “I got to work.”

An Unconventional Plan

Thomson’s plan was bold, unconventional and driven by sheer determination. Instead of waiting on a buyer to show up, she would go directly to the buyer she believed was the perfect fit for her fruit.

She had one woman in mind.

“I knew of Paula. I knew she was crafting some wonderful bubbles, and that she is restoring and breathing new life into her father’s project, maybe bringing it back to the forefront of Napa Valley’s sparkling wine. I am bound and determined to find her.”

That woman was Paula Kornell, a fourth-generation sparkling wine producer whose family helped shape Napa’s sparkling heritage.

Kornell launched her own label in 2017, carrying forward her father’s legacy. For Kornell, winemaking is not just a craft — it is part of her identity.

“The wine business is in your blood. My father used to say, ‘You have more sparkling burgundy in the old veins than you do blood.’ And so, you know, it is in your soul. Growing up here, you spend so much time trying to get out of here, and then you realize that the rest of your life you spend your time getting back into Napa Valley.”

Thomson admired Kornell’s work from afar. What she did not realize was that Kornell was closer than she ever imagined — literally down the road, not even 3,000' away.

A Chance Encounter in the Pouring Rain

Thomson finally found Kornell at a tasting event on a stormy day —an event Kornell recalls with a laugh.

“Pouring down rain and I am by myself. No one is showing up for this event and in comes this one,” she says.

That “one” was Thomson, arriving with purpose and a direct question.

“Paula, where are you sourcing these grapes from? It says Carneros, but like which vineyard?” Thomson asked.

When Kornell revealed the vineyard, Thomson immediately saw the opportunity.

“Paula, we have to find a way to work together. I would love to sell you grape. It is about the quality, it is about the terroir, but if you do not enjoy doing business with someone, you probably should not be in business with them,” Thomson said.

For Thomson, something was missing in Kornell’s previous sourcing arrangement.

“There was a story about the particular vineyard, but it was not from the ground up,” she says. “It was not from the dirt up, and it was not a person behind it. So this is entirely different.”

A partnership rooted in soil, legacy, and shared values — this was exactly what both women had been looking for.

The Power Duo: Two Women Preserving the Future

Thomson is one of the last remaining family farmers in Napa Valley who still grows grapes on land her family has tended for generations. That responsibility fuels her mission: uplifting other family farmers in the region — especially women.

“I think the story is being diluted,” she says. “And I think it is so important that news organizations like your own share with consumers. So they can seek out supporting those family farmers.”

The women she surrounds herself with share the same grit.

“We all drive tractors, we roll with our mud boots, but we truly love what we do and we truly respect the generations that have come before us,” Thomson says. “It is inspiring to be with a group of women who really believe in what they are doing for their family legacy.”

This female-driven partnership, Thomson says, is rare in the valley.

“Paula is a legend… and I too surrounded myself with other women grape growers who began assuming management roles within their own family. To really be able to find a partnership with Paula and recognize that maybe us as women grape growers have been fortunate enough to recreate what Paula started with her generation of women… it is exciting,” Thomson says.

Kornell says she feels the same.

“I am so proud to be working with Jennifer,” she says. “To be able to talk about her family heritage and the fact that we are both two women in this damn wine business in Napa Valley is really… it makes me very happy and excited about the future.”

A Father’s Legacy, A Daughter’s Determination

Thomson’s dad — the third generation — spent most of his life working an off-farm job to allow the vineyard to survive. Today, he gets to watch his daughter secure its future.

“I am thrilled because not only do I get to answer to my mentors who year after year said, ‘Why have you not done a deal with Paula?’ I can now say I have done a really wonderful deal with Paula.”

But for Thomson, the partnership is about more than business. She’s created her own group of close-knit family farmers in the area, other family farmers who just so happen to be women.

“It is about enjoying being in business with someone, and sharing with consumers that there are real people that do their own work. We drive our own tractors, haul our own fruit, write our own contracts,” she says. “We do not have a long payroll of people helping us do that.”

Together, Thomson and Kornell are bringing authentic, family-grown, California wine to consumers who crave stories rooted in the land and the people who care for it.

Writing the Next Chapter

What began as a heartbreaking harvest with no buyers has transformed into a revitalized future for Thomson Vineyards.

It took grit. It took going direct. It took knocking on a buyer’s door in the pouring rain.

And it took two women determined not to let their family stories fade away.

Today, they are writing a new chapter, one worth celebrating, one worth sharing and one that ensures the legacy of Napa’s true family farmers lives on.

These Colorful Corn Sacks Are Preserving a Piece of Rural History

Thu, 27 Nov 2025 17:40:01 GMT

Growing up in the 1940s, Ron Kelsey was a farm kid who eagerly awaited one special trip each year—the Minnesota State Fair. His father showed corn there for more than five decades, racking up over 30 champion titles. For Ron, those trips planted a lifelong fascination with corn and the vivid bags that once carried seed.

“My dad showed corn at the state fair for 54 years,” Kelsey recalls. “He had championed like 30-some times, and I would go with him.”Those early visits sparked his interest not only in corn, but in the artwork that adorned seed sacks of the era. Long before plain paper bags became the standard, seed companies packaged corn in brightly colored cloth sacks boasting ornate logos, scenes and town names—each one a walking advertisement for both the seed and the farmer who grew it.

“The sacks had not only the name of the grain on them, but they often had the name of the town you’re from and your name,” he says.

A Lifetime of Teaching and Collecting

Kelsey went on to become a high school agriculture teacher and FFA advisor in Lamberton, Minnesota. In his spare time, he began collecting these vintage cloth sacks, eventually amassing an astonishing 1,400 of them.

He takes roughly 400 sacks to the Minnesota State Fair each year, offering visitors a glimpse into farming’s visual past.

“I have fourteen hundred of ’em, so I can’t take ’em all,” he laughs. “I take about four hundred of ’em there.”

More Than Fabric: The Art and Science Behind the Sacks

Many of the old sacks survived only because they were reused around the home. But unlike the floral-patterned flour sacks often turned into clothing, grain sacks were printed with dyes that weren’t intended to last.

“The grain sack is what I call a temporary dye,” Kelsey explains. “You can take the color out overnight with boiling water. My mother made her underwear out of them also. It was a little bit scratchy, but we got by.”Because the dyes fade with light exposure, Kelsey can’t keep them on permanent display. Still, he makes special efforts to show visitors—and this collection—what corn meant to rural America.

Some sacks feature college mascots, regional icons or whimsical illustrations.

“These are colleges—the Big Ten,” he says, pointing to one display. “Wisconsin, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska… Husker sacks, rabbit ears made of corn—just all kinds of designs.”

Corn in the Blood

Corn has been woven into nearly every chapter of Kelsey’s life. His children even gifted him a corn-themed item for his 75th birthday—something he accepted with humor and pride.

“I was a corn person and I carry it with me,” he says. “My kids gave me this for my seventy-fifth birthday, and I thought if I get it when I’m 75 years old and I don’t like it, I’m not gonna live that long.”Though corn may be a commodity, the cloth sacks from the 1930s and ’40s are anything but ordinary. They’re bright, bold snapshots of farm life and the communities that grew around it. And through collectors like Kelsey, they continue telling those stories today.

Traveling the countryside, in Lamberton, Minnesota — I’m Andrew McCrea.

Fertilizer Prices Under Fire: Monopoly or Markets to Blame?

Mon, 10 Nov 2025 17:11:25 GMT

As President Donald Trump demands a federal investigation into meatpackers for inflating beef prices , another battle over farm input costs is already heating up. Fertilizer, long one of the most volatile and least transparent costs in farming, is now drawing renewed scrutiny on Capitol Hill.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, has reintroduced The Fertilizer Research Act, a bipartisan measure requiring USDA to study pricing and competition across the fertilizer market. U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Brooke Rollins says that effort will go hand in hand with a Department of Justice probe into market concentration, promising to take a look at whether farmers truly have fair choices when buying the inputs that feed the nation.

“Pressure Cooker” on Capitol Hill

Two weeks ago on Capitol Hill, lawmakers took up the issue farmers have long demanded answers for: Why fertilizer, seed and input prices keep rising while competition keeps shrinking.

The Senate Judiciary Committee’s hearing, titled “Pressure Cooker: Competition Issues in the Seed and Fertilizer Industries, ” drew fiery testimony from across agriculture. Lawmakers on both sides of the aisle say they’re hearing growing frustration from rural America.

Grassley tells the committee that farmers are being boxed in by consolidation at every level of the ag supply chain.

“Over the last 20 years, a few big companies have bought up many of the smaller seed and chemical businesses,” he says. “Those same companies now sell not just the seeds, but also the pesticides and digital farming tools that tell farmers what to plant and when. Because all these products and data systems are tied together, it’s hard for farmers to switch to a different brand.”

Sen. Cory Booker, D–N.J., delivers one of the sharpest warnings of the day.

“What’s happening in America is dire,” he says. “Congress must not just talk about the problems; we’ve got to fix them. Otherwise, American farming as we know it will be forever changed.”

Farmers Take a Stand

The goal of the hearing was to understand what’s driving record-high input prices and what, if anything, Congress can do to restore fairness and competition.

Of the six witnesses called that day, two were farmers who spoke candidly about what they’re experiencing on the ground.

Noah Coppess, a fifth-generation farmer from Cedar County, Iowa, tells senators the volatility of fertilizer pricing has turned crop planning into a gamble.

“If the market becomes too constricted, it is ultimately the farmer who loses,” Coppess says. “Fertilizer pricing has become very volatile, with wild swings of 25% to 50% from year to year. We’re asked to prepay for fertilizer three to six months before it’s applied to the soil and up to 14 months before harvest. Many contracts have a narrow window for application. If we miss it, the contract expires and the input is repriced higher or we’re charged monthly fees just to extend it.”

He says it’s forcing farmers to cut back in ways that threaten long-term soil health.

“Phosphate fertilizer has become a bare-minimum usage fertilizer on our farm because of the cost,” Coppess adds. “We simply can’t afford to apply it like we used to.”

Kentucky farmer Caleb Ragland tells the committee the same pressures are weighing on his operation.

“Farmers are paying more than ever to grow their crops,” he says. “In just five years, seed prices have increased by 18%, fertilizer by 37%, pesticides by 25%, machinery by 23% and interest expense by 37%. Seed is a key cost consideration for farmers. Advancements in seed technology and pesticides have delivered real agronomic benefits — but at an added cost. Those costs are eating away at what little margin we have left.”

Industry Response: “A Perfect Storm”

But the hearing wasn’t just about farmers. Corey Rosenbusch, president and CEO of The Fertilizer Institute (TFI), appeared before the committee to represent the industry’s view. Speaking later with “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory, Rosenbusch says the pressures farmers face are real but are largely the result of global dynamics, not domestic decisions.

“It’s a challenging time for growers,” Rosenbusch says. “In some cases, it’s even harder for the American farmer right now than it was a few years ago when markets exploded because at least, back then, commodity prices were high. Right now, it’s a perfect storm. Commodity prices are low, and input costs keep going up and up. Our message is simple: We need farmers to be successful because if they’re not, we don’t exist. But the factors driving this market are frankly outside of our control and, honestly, outside of this country’s control. Geopolitics is taking the headlines when it comes to supply and demand.”

He says Russia’s war in Ukraine, China’s fertilizer export restrictions and global energy volatility are all rippling through fertilizer markets — forces far beyond the industry’s ability to manage.

“These are global supply and demand pressures,” Rosenbusch says. “When geopolitics dominate, prices react worldwide.”

Farmers Push Back: “Too Few Suppliers”

Farmers listening to the hearing say those global explanations don’t tell the whole story.

Mark Mueller, a farmer from Bremer County, Iowa, was supposed to testify on behalf of the Iowa Corn Growers but says he was disinvited, which he believes was because of Iowa Corn’s strong stance on lack of competition in the fertilizer market.

He still attended the hearing in person and says one statement from the fertilizer industry blew him away.

“The bottom line is that we don’t have many places to get our inputs from,” Mueller says. “I might have a half dozen retailers in my county, but when you go a little farther, they all get their phosphorus from one company, their potash from two companies, and their nitrogen from maybe three, and it’s the same problem in the seed industry.”

Mueller says one comment from the industry’s leadership stuck with him.

“The most disingenuous statement I heard came from the CEO of the Fertilizer Institute,” he says. “He said there are 20 unique companies supplying fertilizer inputs to the industry. That’s like General Motors saying they’re made up of four or five unique companies — Buick, Chevrolet, GMC and Cadillac. It’s all one company.”

“It’s Not a Monopoly — It’s an Oligopoly”

Josh Linville, vice president of fertilizer at StoneX Group, agrees the U.S. fertilizer market isn’t a monopoly, but he says it operates much like one.

“Here’s why I can’t be a politician,” Linville jokes. “No, there isn’t enough competition. It’s not a monopoly, but it’s definitely an oligopoly. When you look at nitrogen, three players control the vast majority of production. For phosphate, there’s one main producer. For potash, we’re highly dependent on imports. Almost all of it comes from Canada. So yes, we have some competition — but not enough.”

Linville says fewer players mean tighter supply chains, and that amplifies every global shock, from wars to tariffs.

“A lot of what’s happening is global supply and demand,” he says. “But the lack of competition doesn’t help. Tariffs, countervailing duties and even the fear of new sanctions on Russia are inflating prices that global trade already pushes higher.”

Concerns Potential Government Trade Aid Payments Further Inflate Fertilizer Prices

There’s yet another wildcard this year: the potential for the White House to release tariff aid payments. USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden confirmed on AgriTalk the agency is preparing to roll out $12 billion in trade aid once the government reopens.

Linville says the potential for new government aid has some unintended consequences for the fertilizer market.

“Unfortunately, no,” Linville says when asked if fertilizer prices might ease if aid payments don’t go out. “If the payments come out, I’m afraid it’s gonna boost fertilizer prices. It doesn’t change the supply and demand for most of these products, but it does change the timing, and timing is everything.”

Linville says the fertilizer market is as much about when farmers buy as it is about how much they buy. Injecting fresh cash into the market at once could cause a surge in demand that suppliers can’t absorb smoothly.

“If there’s a big fat check that goes into the farmer’s pockets and that gets spent on fertilizer, and you pull all that demand into one period, fertilizer is going to see its prices boosted as a result,” he adds. “We saw that the last time the checks went out.”

Read More: Tariff Aid Payments Could Backfire, Boosting Fertilizer Prices, Analyst Warns

Little Hope for Price Relief

When asked whether fertilizer prices could ease before spring, Linville doesn’t sugarcoat it.

“You know me — I’m never going to deal in guarantees,” he says. “I’m not going to say prices can’t fall between now and spring, but the second I do, the market will humble me again. We’ve got some improvements: China’s exporting a little more, Russia’s exporting more, there’s more peace in the Middle East, but we still have production problems in Europe, and China’s slowing exports again. Phosphate exports are being cut in half this year, and the world doesn’t have anyone ready to fill that gap. So could prices fall? Yes. But I’m not holding my breath.”

Stockpiling Isn’t a Solution

When asked on “AgriTalk” whether stopping exports and stockpiling product domestically could help ease prices, Rosenbusch says the U.S. doesn’t have that capability.

“Even if we wanted to take a page out of China’s book and stop exports, we couldn’t,” he says. “We still have to import 40% of our phosphates. We don’t have the infrastructure to stockpile fertilizer in this country. It just doesn’t exist.”

A Critical Step Forward

In what’s being hailed as a small but meaningful win for the U.S. farm economy, the Trump administration recently added phosphate and potash to the list of 10 minerals deemed critical to national security. The designation could help accelerate mining permits and spur new domestic investment — something both industry and lawmakers say is badly needed.

But for farmers testifying before the Senate Judiciary Committee, the message was clear: They can’t wait years for market reform.

“Fertilizer is the biggest pain point on farms today,” Coppess says. “We need change, and we need it soon.”

'Everything’s a Game of 3D Chess': The Real Reason Behind U.S. Ties to Argentina

Fri, 24 Oct 2025 19:32:24 GMT

The U.S. is tightening ties with Argentina, and that’s raising eyebrows across farm country.

From a $20 billion bailout to plans to import Argentine beef, farmers and ranchers say the growing alliance feels like it’s coming at the expense of U.S. agriculture.

But according to Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, there’s more to this story, and it has everything to do with China .

A Geopolitical Chess Match

“Everything’s a game of 3D chess,” Suderman explains. “At the center of it is China.”

For years, China has been strengthening ties with Argentina, investing heavily in infrastructure and agriculture to secure long-term supply lines and influence. Suderman says the U.S. sees an opportunity to pull Argentina away from Beijing’s orbit, using economic incentives to win its allegiance.

“The White House sees this as a way to create a split between Argentina and China,” Suderman says. “It’s not just about soybeans or beef. It’s about global positioning.”

The Beef Backlash

But for cattle producers, that strategy feels like betrayal. President Donald Trump’s recent talk of importing Argentine beef sparked anger across rural America. Many worry increasing imports will undercut domestic markets.

Suderman urges producers to stay calm. He points out the announced beef imports, around 80,000 metric tons, are only equal to about two day’s worth of U.S. beef production.

“It’s not enough to impact prices,” he says, “but it does show a disconnect between Washington and agriculture.”

He adds that advisers to the president might have misunderstood how ag markets work.

“These aren’t controlled industries like pharmaceuticals,” Suderman notes. “Ag markets are driven by supply and demand, and right now, we have record demand with tight supply.”

Soybean Farmers Feel Left Behind

While beef producers protest, soybean farmers are already bruised. Argentina’s temporary suspension of export taxes earlier in the year allowed them to undercut U.S. prices and quickly sell beans to China — a major blow to American growers. Suderman says it’s a reminder that the U.S. is no longer the world’s low-cost soybean producer.

“Argentina and Brazil have a cheaper currency and lower costs,” he explains. “And China has been investing there for decades.”

Suderman says he’s been warning the industry for years that the U.S. would eventually lose China as its top soybean buyer.

“This didn’t happen overnight,” Suderman says. “China has been building toward this for 20 years. The current administration may have sped it up, but it was coming.”

Beijing’s refusal to buy American and its pivot to Brazil could be less about economics and more to do with politics. “It’s a calculated decision about control and national leverage, not about getting the cheapest beans,” says one ag economist. Read more here.

Caught in a Bigger Battle

Beyond agriculture, Suderman says the real fight isn’t over soybeans — it’s over rare earth minerals. China currently controls about 90% of the world’s processed rare earths, which are essential to making electronics and advanced defense systems.

“That’s the real leverage,” he says. “Soybeans are small compared to the rare earth battle.”

The Trump administration is now trying to expand domestic rare earth supply chains, sourcing from Australia, Greenland and even within the U.S. But Suderman says it could take two to three years before those efforts meet national defense and economic needs.

What Farmers Need to Know

To many farmers, Washington’s global strategy feels like it’s coming at their expense. While the administration is playing the long game with China, rural America is paying the short-term price. Still, Suderman sees opportunity ahead if the U.S. can continue developing new markets, strengthen biofuel demand and tap into growing trade opportunities in Africa and beyond.

“We weren’t ready to give up China,” he admits, “but we need to look forward not backward.”

$9 Soybeans, Record Yields, Rising Costs: Minnesota Farmers Brace for Another Year of Tight Margins

Mon, 20 Oct 2025 20:16:02 GMT

As harvest rolls across Minnesota, farmers are seeing strong yields in both corn and soybeans. But those big harvests come with an old problem — low prices and limited storage. During a recent University of Minnesota U.S. Farm Report College Roadshow stop in Minneapolis, experts Ed Usset, grain marketing specialist, and Pauline Van Nurden, Extension economist with the university’s Center for Farm Financial Management, break down what this means for farm profitability heading into 2025.

Soybean Storage Challenges — and the Corn Problem Coming Next

The conversation began with a topic dominating coffee shops and grain elevators across the Midwest: soybean storage. Reports earlier in the season hinted at a “soybean pileup,” with the governor even joking farmers might have to start putting soybeans in their garages.

Minnesota Governor Tim Walz warned trade war-related tariffs and a record harvest meant “there’s going to be soybeans in garages, on the streets, wherever we can put them because there’s nowhere to go”. He specifically blamed President Donald Trump’s trade policies for creating “a man-made farm crisis” that has financially harmed Minnesota farmers.

However, Usset says farmers did find room for the crop.

“Well, I’m kind of surprised,” Usset says. “A couple of weeks ago, I really was concerned that we wouldn’t find a home for all the soybeans. But I’m talking to people in the country — they found a place for them. They’re in storage. They’re holding out.”

While the majority of Minnesota farmers have found a home for their soybeans this fall, futures prices are about the same as this point last year, however, it’s cash prices in the upper Midwest that are suffering.

“Prices are not good. Probably around $9.25 a bushel in much of southern Minnesota,” he explains. “But we found room for the soybeans. The problem, I think, is going to be in the next couple of weeks because a lot of space was dedicated to soybeans. Where does the corn go? We’re gonna have corn piles.”

Record Yields Add to the Surplus

Despite the logistical headaches, Minnesota farmers are seeing some of their best yields in years.

“I think we’re seeing good yields in soybeans,” Usset says. “There’s a good chance in Minnesota we’ll set a state record for average soybean yields. Not by a lot — you know, 52 bushels [per acre] is our record. I like to think we have a shot at 53 for a state average.”

Corn yields are also impressive.

“We have an outside shot to top 200 bushels an acre for the state,” Usset adds.

Those high yields, however, come at a time when input costs remain elevated and prices have failed to rebound.

A Difficult Year for Farm Income

According to Van Nurden, Minnesota farmers are still feeling the financial strain from last year— the lowest farm income in two decades.

“Unfortunately for crop farmers, it looks like more of the same,” she says. “Low prices, even with the better yields, but input costs are up.”

This situation isn’t new for Minnesota farmers. Even though China has backed off from buying U.S. soybeans, farmers also faced low-to-negative farm incomes last year. According to University of Minnesota analysis , Minnesota farm incomes declined again in 2024, falling to the lowest level this century.

In the data from the University of Minnesota and Minnesota State, it showed the median net farm income for Minnesota farms dropped to $21,964 in 2024, marking the lowest level this century. The drop was due to falling crop prices, coupled with below-trendline crop yields.

Van Nurden notes some relief came at the end of the year from the ECAP payments that had been issued.

“That payment was helpful — it provided some cash. But we actually included that income in last year’s numbers on the balance sheet as an accounts receivable,” she explains. “So it looks to be another challenging year for crop producers, with losses per acre on corn and soybean production.”

Payments Help, But “They’re Just a Band-Aid”

The conversation turned to the ongoing debate over government support payments for farmers, especially as uncertainty continues around trade policy and federal budgets.

“Something’s needed,” Van Nurden says. “I know farmers would rather be able to sell their crop at a profitable price and not receive payments, of course. Payments are a band-aid. Hopefully we can find new solutions to help replace markets, find new markets, all of that. But payments would be helpful at this challenging time.”

Trade Tensions Still Haunting Soybean Markets

For soybean growers, the trade relationship with China continues to cast a long shadow. Reports this week suggest China is intentionally avoiding purchases of U.S. soybeans — an echo of the trade war that hit markets hard in 2018 and 2019.

When asked whether that business might be lost for good, Usset says that’s a tough question.

“We had a trade war in 2018, 2019. We got by it, got a change in administration, and we got the sales back. I guess if I want to be hopeful, we can hope it comes back again,” Usset says.

Cutting Costs — One Small Step at a Time

Looking ahead to 2026, both experts agree managing costs will be critical as input prices continue to rise. Van Nurden says farmers are focusing on the small things.

“It’s probably little things across the board — trying to make smart decisions, manage the inputs where they can,” she says. “I don’t know that it’s going to be one place. I think it’s going to be lots of little places and just trying to manage and be very intentional about inputs and deferring repairs at times, potentially, and new investments.”

But she cautiones cost-cutting comes with long-term consequences.

“That has ramifications as well,” she says. “So it’s a balance.”

Market Opportunities — and a Ray of Hope

Even in a tough price environment, Usset says there are opportunities for farmers willing to look ahead.

“Look at the big carries in the market,” he advises. “Today’s price is really terrible — pretty much as low as it’s been in the last year. But in the corn market, for example, if you looked for delivery in April or May, you’ve got a 35¢ to 40¢ premium. You’ve got a 50¢ premium to hang onto your soybeans out into the spring.”

He says similar opportunities exist for wheat.

“No one wants to talk about spring wheat,” Usset says. “But if you’ll hold out to January, you can get a 50¢ premium for wheat — 50¢ for three months. That’s how big the carry is.”

Building Support and Planning Ahead

As the year winds down, Van Nurden encourages farmers to lean on their support systems.

“Take a look and push the pencil to your finances, talk to your lender, build that support,” she says. “There’s great collaboration between the university and the state of Minnesota with some of those programs, but there are resources out there to help. Always seek out the tools or the individuals that can help you.”

In the face of strong yields but shaky profitability, Minnesota farmers continue to show resilience and resourcefulness. As Usset put it, “It might not solve all the problems — but it’s a lot better than today’s price.”

How Missouri is Turning to Genetics and Technology to Boost Cattle Profits

Tue, 14 Oct 2025 13:46:21 GMT

Missouri’s cattle industry is experiencing a wave of optimism. Prices are soaring, herds are rebuilding and innovations in genetics and technology are transforming the business. At the center of it all is a homegrown initiative that’s quietly reshaping the future of beef production: the Show-Me Select Replacement Heifer Program .

Since 1997, this University of Missouri Extension program has become the gold standard for replacement heifer development, bringing cutting-edge science and data to pastures across the state.

Boom for Beef Producers

Cattle prices are climbing to levels not seen in years — and for longtime producers, the rewards have been hard-earned.

“It’s hard not to be in a good mood if you’re a cattle producer right now,” says Zac Erwin, regional livestock specialist with University of Missouri Extension. “This is the moment we’ve been waiting for for about the last decade.”

Erwin has worked with cattle producers for nearly 20 years, helping them navigate the ups and downs of a notoriously cyclical business. After the market peaked in 2013 and 2014, it plummeted in 2015 and stayed low for nearly a decade. Those who held on through lean years are now seeing the payoff.

“Those that were able to maintain inventory are certainly getting paid for their efforts,” Erwin says. “We’re also seeing new money coming into the business because of the profitability we’re currently experiencing.”

Grassroots Effort Becomes a National Model

The Show-Me Select Replacement Heifer Program was born out of a simple idea: add value to what was once considered an undervalued commodity — the heifer calf. It began as a grassroots initiative and has since grown into a model replicated across the U.S.

“This is really the gold standard for heifer replacement in the country,” Erwin says. “It started to raise the value of an undervalued commodity — and over the years, it’s snowballed.”

At its core, the program is about technology transfer: taking the latest university research — whether in breeding, pregnancy detection or genetics — and putting it directly into the hands of Missouri cattle producers.

Breeding Smarter with Technology

In the early days, the program focused on artificial insemination (AI) and ultrasound pregnancy diagnosis. Today, it’s moving into genomics and advanced reproductive tools that could revolutionize herd-building.

One of the newest developments is Doppler ultrasonography, championed by Thiago Martins, beef production state specialist at the University of Missouri. This technology allows producers to check a cow or heifer just 20 days after AI — a significant improvement over the traditional 28-day window.

“By exposing cows to two rounds of AI in 24 days, we got 85% of those animals pregnant,” Martins says. “If you compare that to natural service over 60 to 90 days, which gets you around 9% bred, the difference is huge.”

For producers looking to rebuild their herds with better genetics, this technology could be a game-changer.

Genomics: Peeling Back the Hide

The future of replacement heifer selection isn’t just about breeding more animals — it’s about breeding better animals.

“Genomic testing, especially on the commercial side, is relatively new to the beef industry,” explains Jamie Courter, state beef genetics Extension specialist. “With Show-Me Plus, producers can use DNA samples to unlock deeper insights into their heifers’ genetic potential.”

By understanding traits that can’t be seen — like longevity, calving ease and heifer pregnancy — producers can make more informed decisions. And while some are initially hesitant due to testing costs, Courter says the return on investment is clear.

“If you can show up at the sale barn with calves out of high genetic merit for traits like carcass weight, marbling and ribeye, buyers notice,” she says. “They love having that risk management — knowing what to expect when those cattle enter the feedyard.”

Proven Premiums and Long-Term Payoffs

The numbers speak for themselves. According to Erwin, Show-Me Select heifers routinely bring $200 to $300 more per head than comparable animals not in the program.

“Most sales this fall will be in the $4,000 range — and even above,” he says. “Over time, you build a reputation. Repeat buyers come back, and that puts more money in producers’ pockets. Those who stick with the program through good times and bad see the biggest rewards.”

Beyond the dollars, the program has had a transformative impact on rural communities, improving operations and livelihoods across Missouri.

Looking Ahead

The next Show-Me Select Replacement Heifer sale is set for Nov. 21 at the Joplin Regional Stockyards in Carthage, Mo., featuring around 275 spring-calving heifers. It’s more than just a sale; it’s a showcase of how genetics, technology and trusted branding can add real value to Missouri’s beef industry.

As Erwin puts it, “This program changes people’s lives.” And in today’s high-stakes cattle market, it may just shape the next decade of beef production.

A New Road for Soybeans: Building New Domestic Demand

Mon, 13 Oct 2025 21:07:43 GMT

The loss of China as a dominant buyer has left a hole in U.S. soybean demand that hasn’t been easy to fill. While export sales have held up better than expected elsewhere in the world, farmers and industry leaders are still asking the same question: Where will the next big wave of demand come from?

In an unexpected twist, some engineers in Iowa believe the answer might be right beneath our wheels and in the refineries used to fuel vehicles today.

A Parking Lot That’s Anything but Ordinary

From the sky, the parking lot at Iowa State University looks like any other — smooth, black pavement stretching across rows of cars. But a closer look reveals a surprising secret: this blacktop isn’t made with conventional petroleum products. Instead, it’s paved with soybeans.

“As a chemist, you look at the soybean molecule itself — it’s just an absolute dream,” says Eric Cochran, Mary Jane Skogen Hagenson & Randy L. Hagenson Professor at Iowa State . “It’s just a playground. There are so many different things you can do with it.”

For Cochran and his team, that “playground” led them to reimagine something as ordinary as pavement and, in the process, potentially open a powerful new market for American soybeans.

A Crisis Spurs Innovation

Soybean oil had been on the sidelines for decades, mostly used in food or as a fuel source. But around 2010, Cochran and his team discovered that the long molecular chains of soybean oil could be strung together to form elastic, rubber-like materials. Those properties mirror exactly what asphalt needs to survive the extremes of summer heat and winter freeze.

Traditionally, asphalt producers rely on synthetic polymers, particularly a petroleum-based product called SPS, to provide flexibility and strength. But in 2008, a global SPS shortage triggered a crisis in the asphalt industry. Just as panic was setting in, Cochran’s lab had an idea: What if soybean oil could fill the gap?

“It wasn’t long before [the Iowa Department of Transportation] was asking if they could try our new soybean rubber in asphalt,” Cochran recalls. “And things just kind of cascaded from there.”

From Pilot Plant to Proof of Concept

At first, the idea of soy-based pavement caught one civil engineers off guard.

“No, it was not on my radar at all,” admits Chris Williams, Gerald and Audrey Olson Professor in Civil Engineering at Iowa State University . “We had seen a lot of market increases in asphalt as supply was getting tight for demand. In the U.S., when we have an economic downturn, we correct that by investing in infrastructure. Everybody benefits — safer roads, better fuel economy, smoother rides and jobs.”

The team secured initial investment to build a pilot plant, their “first flag in the ground,” as Cochran puts it, proving soybean oil could be transformed into a durable, scalable pavement solution.

By 2018, that pilot plant produced its first soy-based asphalt. Over the next five years, with support from the Iowa Soybean Association and the United Soybean Board , the team ramped up production to showcase just how tough soy pavement can be.

“We formed a startup company in 2020,” Williams says. “We’ve worked out manufacturing issues, started getting customers, and now is really the time to take advantage of all this extensive testing.”

Consistency in a Volatile Market

Beyond its performance benefits, soy polymers bring something else to the table: predictability. Unlike petroleum-based polymers, which swing wildly with the energy markets, soybean oil prices are far more stable.

“When you look at price volatility of polymers, it’s a wide range,” Williams explains. “The consistency of soybean oil pricing is a lot less volatile. When you’re planning infrastructure projects four, five, 10 years out, lower volatility reduces risk and makes costs more predictable. That’s critical for how we invest in infrastructure.”

Soy polymers also fill critical supply gaps when refiners shift between crude petroleum and natural gas. When the market leans toward natural gas, the availability of butadiene, a key polymer ingredient, drops. Soy steps in to keep supply steady.

What’s Next? Rethinking the Refinery

Cochran and Williams believe the implications go far beyond the road surface. By redirecting soybean oil from fuel use to industrial materials, they say the U.S. can make its refineries more efficient and economically viable — at a time when refinery closures are becoming more frequent.

“Rather than burning it for energy, we could use it to really transform how the oil processing industry operates,” Cochran says. “Every ton of soybean oil we produce can become a permanent part of the pavements we drive on, and allow us to get more energy out of every barrel of crude oil.”

Williams notes there are just over 60 active refineries in the U.S., down from previous decades. Soy polymers could help keep these facilities competitive while enabling the production of more jet fuel and exportable products — boosting both rural and industrial economies.

From Fields to Freeways

While that might be more long-term, today, soy oil for asphalt is a reality. And years of research is finally paying off.

The researchers say each bushel of soybeans yields about 10.7 lb. of oil, and researchers are working on ways to squeeze even more value out of every drop. Their efforts have been fueled by farmer checkoff investments through the Iowa Soybean Association and United Soybean Board — groups that both Cochran and Williams say made the research possible.

It’s a road less traveled, quite literally. But this innovation is paving the way for a new domestic demand engine for U.S. soybeans — one that isn’t dependent on international trade flows or the whims of a single buyer.

And for farmers looking for the next “shining star” of soybean demand, the answer might already be under their tires.

A Bullish Case for Corn? The Reality of Tight Global Supplies and Shrinking Yields

Fri, 10 Oct 2025 19:52:01 GMT

The October USDA WASDE report has long been a market mover, but this year, farmers and traders didn’t get one. A government shutdown suspended the highly anticipated report, potentially robbing the market of its best near-term catalyst for price movement. But even without the data, experts say there are strong bullish forces at work for both corn and soybeans.

Reality Check: Corn Stocks Are the Tightest Since the Drought of 2012

Even with USDA’s last yield forecast pointing to a record corn yield this year, there’s a simple reality you can’t ignore: Global supplies are tight.

“If you look at global stocks of corn relative to use, we’re the tightest we’ve been in over a decade — since the 2012 drought,” says Ben Brown, senior research associate and Extension agricultural economist at the University of Missouri. “And if you take the U.S. and China out of the picture, it’s the tightest supply-to-use ratio in at least 30 years.”

This means the rest of the world is operating with razor-thin reserves, and any production hiccups — like potential challenges in Brazil’s second corn crop — could send prices higher. Markets like Mexico are already increasing purchases, creating more pricing opportunities for U.S. producers.

October WASDE: A Missed Market Spark?

Market analysts were eyeing the October WASDE report, which was scheduled to be released this week, as the best chance for USDA to trim yield estimates for both corn and soybeans, potentially igniting a rally. But with the report suspended due to the government shutdown, that spark never came this week.

“October was the month where we’d get a better picture of what was happening,” Brown says. “With combines rolling and harvest well underway, USDA would’ve had strong data to work with. I have to imagine, given the dryness in the Eastern and Southern Corn Belt, later-harvested soybeans are going to have tough yields. That could have provided a bullish spark for soybeans as well.”

Lower yields would help chip away at the massive 18+ billion bushels of corn the U.S. has to work through, tightening the balance sheet further and supporting prices.

Rumors of China’s Quiet Buying Fuels Price Momentum Earlier in the Week

Even in the absence of USDA’s weekly export sales reports, another report that’s suspended due to the government shutdown, corn and soybean prices showed surprising strength.

Brown explains that rumors of Chinese buying have allowed basis markets in key regions to firm up.

“We haven’t gotten any USDA reports the last couple of days,” Brown says. “There’s been speculation that China has been sniffing around for soybeans. Because export data is delayed, they’re able to come into the market without being seen right now, and that’s firming nearby basis levels.”

Traders are watching the spreads between nearby and deferred contracts closely. When nearby contracts rise relative to deferred ones, it often signals near-term demand. Brown says the spreads are indeed pointing to strong corn demand, with opportunities emerging on the soybean side as well.

Fertilizer Prices Surge: Tariffs, Sanctions and Global Demand

A spark in the commodity markets is something farmers are desperately awaiting. That’s as high fertilizer prices offer no reprieve on the cost side of the equation. As farmers harvest their 2025 crops, they’re also locking in fall fertilizer — and facing sticker shock.

Bob Maltsbarger, senior research economist with FAPRI at the University of Missouri, says it’s a perfect storm causing the run-up in prices:

Global demand remains strong, with large acreage in both the U.S. and South America
Tariffs on Morocco and other countries have disrupted phosphate imports
Sanctions on Russia, which supplies about half of U.S. UAN (urea ammonium nitrate), have tightened supplies
Domestic production helps on anhydrous, but not enough to offset price hikes

“If you look at the AMS report out of Illinois on Oct. 3, anhydrous ammonia was $132 more per ton compared to a year ago,” Maltsbarger says. “Urea and nitrogen are up 13% to 19%, UAN for 32 is up almost 50%. Potash is the ‘shining light,’ only up 8%.”

With crop prices flat to slightly lower than last year, this means tighter margins for 2024.

Looking Ahead: Acreage Could Shrink Next Year

Maltsbarger notes FAPRI’s September outlook predicts a drop of 2.5 million planted acres across the top 13 program crops in 2024 due to these squeezed margins.

“If we don’t see a break in prices, more Chinese demand or some form of ad hoc assistance, farmers are facing even tighter margins next year,” he says.

Bottom Line

Even without the October WASDE, market fundamentals are tightening:

Chinese buying rumors are quietly supporting prices
Global corn stocks are the tightest in decades
Potential yield reductions were missed in October, but could still come later
Fertilizer prices are spiking on global demand and trade policy shifts, pressuring farmer margins

All this sets the stage for a potentially bullish setup for corn and soybean prices — but with volatility likely ahead as the market waits for official data and watches global weather closely.

New Heart Brings New Life: 13-Year-Old Dairy Exhibitor Returns Stronger After Life-Saving Transplant

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 20:37:23 GMT

At last year’s World Dairy Expo , 12-year-old Lexi Anderson from Cumberland, Wis., looked like any other spirited farm kid — full of energy and spunk. What no one could see was the silent battle inside her heart.

“How long have you been coming to World Dairy Expo?”

“12 years, my whole life,” Anderson said last year.

A Shocking Diagnosis

In December 2023, Anderson collapsed on the basketball court. At first, her mom, Tamala Anderson, thought it might be something simple like dehydration. But a visit to the doctor revealed something much more serious: restrictive cardiomyopathy, a rare and aggressive disease where the heart’s lining hardens and loses its ability to pump.

“The walls of the heart are eventually going to harden and stop pumping. It’s really rare,” Tamala says. “Like, only 2% of the world has it.”

Doctors delivered devastating news — the only chance for survival was a heart transplant. Without one, many children with the condition only live about a year and a half past diagnosis.

Life on Hold

The family was forced to put everything on pause. Sports, showing animals and everyday joys became secondary as they anxiously waited for a new heart. By January 2025, Anderson’s health had declined so much she was admitted into the hospital to move higher up on the transplant list.

“I was nervous, but I wasn’t. I just wanted to get it over with,” she says.

For weeks, the family clung to hope. Then, on January 21, they finally got the call: a donor heart was available.

The Surgery That Saved Her Life

Anderson’s transplant surgery lasted through the night. For Tamala, it was an emotional rollercoaster.

“Honestly, that was a pretty hard experience because you don’t see your daughter. You see tubes and bandages. But at the same time, you know she’s alive because these doctors are amazing,” Tamala says.

Anderson’s fighting spirit showed almost immediately. Just a day after surgery, she was determined to get out of bed and push herself forward.

“Day by day, I got my energy back. And then like a week later, I felt like I could run a mile,” Anderson says.

On Feb. 6 — less than three weeks after surgery — Anderson was able to go home.

“I don’t want to say it, but she’s the little miracle child. She had the determination to get it done,” Tamala says.

A Spunky Return

That determination hasn’t slowed down. A month after leaving the hospital, Anderson was back on the softball field. Today, eight months later, she’s a thriving 13-year-old — full of the sass, spirit and spark her family worried they might lose.

“Honestly, her change in personality and everything is amazing. She acts more like a teenager now. She has the spunk, the spirit, the sassiness. She’s just herself now,” Tamala says.

Even showing during World Dairy Expo this year, it was proof that surgery brought their spunky little girl back to life.

Living With Purpose

For the Andersons, every day with their daughter is a reminder of resilience, love and the gift of life made possible through organ donation.

“To go from this feeling of loss, because you don’t know what’s going to happen, to this extreme joy — because she’s right there. She’s not rejecting. The heart is doing great,” Tamala says.

Anderson’s story is not just one of survival, but of determination — a reminder that even in the hardest moments, miracles can and do happen.

California's Water Crisis: Farmers Warn Water Rules Could Cripple Central Valley Agriculture

Wed, 01 Oct 2025 10:52:47 GMT

On Hansen Ranch in the Central Valley, fifth-generation farmer Erik Hansen grows a little bit of everything — pistachios, almonds, pomegranates, alfalfa, corn for silage and cotton.

“We farm 15, 16 different crops,” Hansen says. “Cotton is our biggest acreage crop, and that’s in the form of Pima cotton.”

That diversification has long been the Hansen family’s survival strategy. But in spring 2023, no amount of crop rotation could shield them from disaster.

“Where we’re standing right now was underwater,” Hansen recalls. “A mile from here, over by that PG&E substation, was the edge of the lake.”

The flood wiped out 600 acres of pomegranates and 400 acres of pistachios. One thousand acres of permanent crops gone in one season.

“It was a massive hit,” Hansen says. “We had about 5,000 to 6,000 acres under water. Some of that water lasted for over a year.”

From Too Much Water to Not Enough

The irony is hard to ignore: In 2023, floodwaters destroyed thousands of acres. Now, Hansen says it’s the lack of access to water that could cripple farms across the Central Valley.

“The last projections I heard were anywhere from 1 million to 1.2 million acres totaled in the valley,” he says, referring to farmland that could be idled by the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act (SGMA) .

Passed in 2014, SGMA requires local agencies to reduce groundwater overdraft and achieve sustainable use by 2040. On paper, Hansen says, that makes sense.

“To some extent it is good because you have to have a way to manage the overdraft,” he explains. “The problem is there are surface water facilities we developed back in the 50s and 60s that we’re just not using. A lot of that water is going out to the Pacific Ocean.”

For Hansen, the politics sting. He believes decades of state decisions — prioritizing fish and wildlife, reallocating water, and neglecting infrastructure — set up today’s crisis.

“I’m frustrated because the families that have been farming here for years, some decades, sometimes even more, are being footed with a bill for problems that somebody else created,” Hansen says. “If the state doesn’t look in the mirror, I think we’re going to find ourselves in the same position again.”

Young Farmers Face the Same Struggles

Forty miles south, 30-year-old Elizabeth Keenan is navigating the same regulatory headwinds. Her grandfather Charlie started Keenan Farms in 1972, acquiring one of California’s first pistachio orchards. Today, Elizabeth farms alongside her parents and brother.

“Rolling with the regulatory punches can be complicated,” she admits. “Despite pistachios being such a high-value product, despite having optimal land and weather conditions, we really have everything set up beautifully — except for legislation.”

Water, she says, is the most difficult hurdle.

“We’re up to a 50% allocation,” Keenan explains. “The base allocation is 2.2 acre-feet, so we get 1.1 acre-feet to use. Otherwise, we have to have open fallow fields. To pump more water, we have to buy it on the open market, and that’s expensive too.”

A Political Battle Over Flows

Signs line highways across the Central Valley warning that 80% of California’s river water flows out to the Pacific instead of farms. Assemblyman David Tangipa, a freshman lawmaker representing the 8^th District, says those numbers are real.

“It’s 100% happening,” Tangipa says. “Almost 83% of all water in the state is automatically pushed out for environmental purposes.”

California averages about 200 million acre-feet of water each year, Tangipa notes, but despite record rainfall, farms often get less than half of their allocations.

“We’ve prioritized so much environmental legislation that more than 80% of our water is pushed out immediately to the ocean, unnaturally,” he says. “Meanwhile, farmers get less water and more land goes out of production.”

Proponents of Current Water Flows

There are proponents of the current way the water flows, mainly for environmental reasons and to prevent saltwater contamination of freshwater sources.

California releases water into the ocean to prevent saltwater intrusion into freshwater supplies, protect endangered aquatic species and ecosystems, and maintain the delicate balance of the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta estuary, a critical source of drinking and irrigation water.

A portion of released water is also used for stormwater management to prevent flooding, as it can be difficult and impractical to capture and store all of it.

And those in favor of environmental water releases say it’s essential to support broader ecosystem benefits like water filtration and carbon sequestration, which are important for overall environmental health.

The Ripple Effect

The Central Valley of California is a powerhouse in food production for the U.S. That area alone produces approximately half of all the fruits and vegetables grown in the U.S., as well as a large portion of the nation’s nuts and other foods. When you break down the numbers, the Central Valley accounts for about 60% of the nation’s fruits and nuts, and about 30% of the nation’s vegetables.

For Thomas Putzel, who works with farmers across the Central Valley, the impact of regulations isn’t just measured in acre-feet. It’s measured in livelihoods and the food supply.

“The environmentalists try to say farmers are wasting water,” he says. “But when we look at what farmers provide, we’re planting forests. One acre of almonds will capture 18 metric tons of carbon a year. That’s like taking 29 million cars off the road.”

Putzel says California voters already approved a water bond to build new storage a decade ago, but no new projects have been built.

“Not one shovel has gone in the ground in 10 years,” he says. “Actually, they took some of that money and tore dams down.”

Meanwhile, permanent crops wither when water isn’t available, leaving behind dead orchards that invite pests and rodents into neighboring fields.

“SGMA’s not necessarily a bad thing,” Putzel says. “But you’ve asked growers to run a marathon with their legs tied together. People don’t understand; food doesn’t come from a grocery store. It comes from a farmer. If California stopped shipping produce for one week, our stores would be empty.”

“Is Farming in California’s Best Interest?”

For Erik Hansen, the question is bigger than water allocations or acreage lost.

“Government is probably the biggest problem right now,” he says. “It just seems California hasn’t really decided whether farming is in their best interest. Politicians like to say they’re for small business and small farming, but virtually every piece of legislation makes it more difficult to survive.”

As the Central Valley wrestles with the challenges of floods, drought and regulations, one reality is clear: The fate of these farms is tied not just to weather and soil but to political decisions that could shape the future of food in America.

Breaking Down the 4 Biggest Challenges Facing the Ag Economy

Fri, 26 Sep 2025 21:14:28 GMT

Farm Journal’s Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, an anonymous survey sent to nearly 70 ag economists each month, shows growing concern about the farm economy. “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory breaks down the latest results, pointing to four key findings.

1. Recession Calls Hit a Survey High

A record 91% of ag economists now say the farm economy is in a recession. That’s the highest level since the survey began, fueled by record input costs while commodity prices remain depressed. Still, about 10% pushed back, arguing that as long as farmland values hold strong, agriculture’s store of wealth remains intact and technically keeps the sector out of a recession.

“Basically what they’re saying is that we’re not going to be in a recession until we see land prices start to pull back,” Flory explains. “That’s where agriculture stores its wealth. As long as those land prices hold up … we are not going to be in a recession as long as that store of wealth remains safe.”

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

2. Bleak Outlook for 2026

46% of ag economists say the economy situation is “somewhat worse off” compared to last month and 27% say it’s “much worse off” compared to last year.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

While opinions about the next 12 months are mixed — 50% expect some improvement, 30% think it will worsen — the longer-term picture is troubling. Economists expect 2026 corn and soybean crops to be breakeven at best, with potential losses of up to $200 per acre.

“The expectations on the ’26 crops are that, at best, it’s going to be breakeven on corn and soybeans,” Flory says. “There’s expectations for losses up to $200 an acre among the survey respondents … We’ve drained a lot of working capital out of the industry already. And it’s really going to get tight in 2026 if this continues.”

Results from the latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound, Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

3. Soybean Exports Under Pressure

Economists see U.S. soybean demand as vulnerable. USDA currently projects 1.705 billion bushels in exports, but survey respondents say that’s a best-case scenario. Some expect exports could fall below 1.4 billion bushels, a 300-million-bushel drop that could be catastrophic.

“China is obviously doing everything that it possibly can to avoid buying U.S. soybeans,” Flory says. “The current USDA export estimate … is a best-case scenario that the economists expect. Some see it all the way down under 1.4 billion bushels. To take another 300 million bushels off of bean export demand might be catastrophic.”

There are still a majority of economists who think China will still buy soybeans from the U.S. this year, with 54% responding “yes.”

Even though China has bought zero new crop soybean cargoes from the U.S., more than half of economists still think China will come to the table in 2025.

(Lindsey Pound, September Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor )

4. Screwworm Detection Near Border Raises Concerns Over Mexican Cattle Imports

This week, New World screwworm was detected just 70 miles from the U.S.–Mexico border, sparking renewed debate over cattle imports and whether USDA should keep the border closed to live cattle imports.

In the September Farm Journal Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor, economists were asked: Should the U.S. reopen its border to cattle imports from Mexico? Eighty percent said no.

91% of ag economists say the crops sector of agriculture is currently experiencing a recession, which is a survey high.

(September Ag Economists’. Monthly Monitor )

Their concern is the risk of screwworm spreading to U.S. herds.

“It’s important we continue to protect the health of our beef herd. Screwworm could have a devastating effect,” said one economist.
“Each day of delay [on reopening the border] gives more time to develop effective treatments/response,” was another response.

With the U.S. cattle herd already at a 75-year low, screwworm infestations can cause massive losses in livestock, threatening both animal health and, according to economists, the ag economy.

The Bright Spot: Beef Demand Stays Strong

There is a bright spot. Despite record-high retail prices, which economists thought would taper the hunger for U.S. beef, beef demand is holding firm. Two-thirds of economists say beef demand is inelastic, meaning consumers keep buying even as prices rise.

Even with record retail beef prices, the majority of ag economists say beef demand is proving to be inelastic.

(Lindsay Pound, Ag Economsits’ Monthly Monitor )

“It’s quality. Quality is a big part of the reason why,” Flory says. “We’ve done an unbelievable job responding to consumer demands to put choice and prime beef in the meat case … Consumers recognize the improvement in quality, and they’re responding by continuing to buy beef. The other thing is … high protein diets. That is a real thing that we need to adjust to, not only in beef, but in pork too.”

You can see the full results of the latest Monthly Monitor here .

Ag Lender Warns Farm Finances Under Greatest Stress Since the 1980s

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 16:12:17 GMT

As combines chew through this year’s crops, farmers are faced with a bleak reality: this crop they’re harvesting is coming at a steep financial loss. And for some, this marks the fourth year in a row they won’t make any money.

“What the general public doesn’t realize is these things have not just occurred over the last six months. This started in 2021 and 2022,” says Tommy Young, who farms in Newport, Ark. “In our particular situation, we started noticing shortfalls in 2021 and 2022 simply because of the input costs.”

That worry and concern took center stage and was at the heart of a meeting in Brookeland, Ark., earlier this month. A meeting that was supposed to be just a handful of farmers at a local bank turned into more of a movement. And for farmers, there was one resounding message: We need help, and we need it now.

“I think when everyone, other farmers, started seeing how many farmers showed up, it changed the overall dynamic of the meeting. It made it become emotional. It made it become more than reverence, from the standpoint that it made me feel personally that I’ve not done anything wrong,” Young says.

‘It Felt Just Like a Funeral’

In the middle of harvest, farmers from across Arkansas, southern Missouri and Tennessee parked their combines to attend the meeting. Young says as he parked his vehicle and saw trucks lining the road and lines of people standing outside to get in, the somber mood became very real.

“It felt just like a funeral,” Young says. “And then when we got inside, you didn’t see signs being held up. You didn’t hear screaming or any kind of thing like that. You saw people that were genuinely concerned about the industry as a whole.”

Young says during that meeting, the frustration farmers voiced came down to three main concerns within the ag economy:

Record-high input costs
Low commodity prices
The loss of key export markets

It’s those three factors fueling a perfect storm, but farmers are considerably concerned about the record-high input costs and what’s fueling those in agriculture.

“All we can do is hope for the best, be as efficient as we possibly can be with what we’re doing, and then thinking things would change. Well, they have not changed. They’ve gotten worse,” Young says.

Ag Lender Says Farmers Are Seeing the Most Financial Stress Since the 1980s

Greg Cole is president and CEO of AgHeritage Farm Credit Services, which serves roughly 6,700 members across 24 counties in Arkansas. Cole started in ag lending in 1984, and he says as Arkansas farmers stare at loss on every crop they grow, it’s not a repeat of the 1980s, but it’s eerily similar.

“I can tell you this, this is the most stress I’ve seen since the ‘80s when you come to farm profitability, i.e. farmers losing money,” Cole says. “One positive we have now compared to the ‘80s is land values. Our land values are still positive, which gives some lendable equity —unlike in the 80s, when I started my career, when U.S. farmland prices plummeted in some areas up to 60%.”

With a drastic drop in commodity prices, but input prices still record or near-record high, Cole says farmers in Arkansas, specifically, have been eroding balance sheets for four straight years.

“We started seeing losses in ’22 when 40% of our producers lost money,” Cole says. “In ’23, about 50% lost money. And then last year, in ’24, 70% lost money, with the average loss of about $150 an acre. And that’s after they received about a $50 per acre ECAP payments. Today, we’re looking at where we stand now. We could have a similar level of losses in ‘25 that we had in ‘24. Even though in ’24, we had very strong yields. But now we have weaker yields.”

As mounting debt shows up on the balance sheets, Cole says there are two types of farmers seeing the most severe financial strain.

“The ones who rent most of the land, especially if they pay on the higher end of rent. And here in the Mississippi Delta, most farmers who have a lot of acres rent most of their ground,” Cole says. “And then young, beginning farmers who didn’t have the opportunity to build up a lot of equity. Those are the ones that have occurred these multiple year losses where their balance sheet debt has swollen to a level that’s hard to service a debt when you add the interest rate cost on top of it.”

Farmers On the Brink of Being Forced Out of Farming

Cole says in talking to farm credit colleagues from across the country, next to the central valley of California, farmers in the Mississippi region are in the most severe shape.

“There were 62 farm equipment sales in eastern Arkansas this past winter,” Cole says. “That’s the most I can recall, anecdotally speaking, than any time in my career since the 1980s. And I think what we’re looking at now is at least that many or more. It could be double that if we don’t get major intervention in the markets or an intervention from D.C.

Cole continues: “Really, what we need is another ad hoc payment, maybe in a form of an MFP-type payment that we received back in Covid. But we need some major help here, or we’re going to have a lot less farmers in 2026 and 2027.”

It’s a desperate plea across agriculture. Without some type of market or government intervention, some could be forced out of farming this year — similar to what happened in the 1980s.

“My dad, in 1978, went to Washington D.C., stood on the capitol and was there during that time when they drove tractors to D.C.,” Young says. “It was the same thing in Brookeland, Arkansas. And if this thing continues, I think it will go nationwide because we’ve got to get through this. And the president and congress have got to make it to where we have good markets, sustainable markets and markets that we can depend on long term.”

Largest Drop in Crop Cash Receipts Ever

It’s not just farmers in the Delta seeing the financial strain. Ag economist John Newton tells AgDay’s Michelle Rook that even though the overall net farm income picture from USDA looks strong, it’s a very different situation when you take out livestock and just look at crops.

“If you look at the data, crop cash receipts over the last three years have declined by $71 billion,” says Newton, executive head of Terrain. “When adjusted for inflation, that matches the largest decline that we’ve seen in history. So, the pressure in the crop space is very real.”

NCGA and ASA Also Sounding the Alarm

National Corn Growers Association (NCGA) is also sounding the alarm , saying agriculture is nearing a financial crisis. According to a new study released by NCGA, nearly half (46%) of U.S. farmers believe we are on the brink of a farm crisis, and 65% are more concerned now about their farm financials than a year ago.

American Soybean Association (ASA)CEO Stephen Censky also sees and hears the growing concern among farmers.

“It’s tough, and I can hear it in the stress in our members’ voices Our members and our board of directors are really concerned right now,” Censky says. “Some say if things don’t turn around, if we don’t get markets back or if we get economic assistance — which is not our first choice — this could be their last year in farming. That’s pretty scary.”

Censky says this time in agriculture is more serious than the last trade war simply because crop prices are lower than they were in 2018, and input prices are significantly higher.

“I will say while those programs we had, the market facilitation payments (MFP), they help keep folks in business. They stop the blood loss. They help farmers survive until the next year, but it’s not a replacement for markets,” Censky says. “And no farmer wants to be dependent on getting his or her income from the government, or from the mailbox, rather than from the marketplace.”

Farmers are also voicing frustration lately that when government assistance is given, they are simply a pass-through. The payments keep input prices elevated, and also seem to prop up high land values.

“One of the things is that when you provide economic assistance or any kind of government payments, whether that is through the reference prices and the ARC and PLC programs under the farm programs, yes, that helps. It helps keep farmers in business and helps them pay the bills. But longer term, any form of government assistance like that gets capitalized into land rents and land values, and that has consequences as well for farmers,” Censky says.

Yet, Censky was part of the Trump administration. He served as the United States Deputy Secretary of Agriculture from 2017 through 2020. That was also during the first trade war with China, and he knows the loss of the Chinese market is completely out of farmers’ control.

“We have not been publicly calling for another MFP-type program. Our priority has been ‘Let’s get a deal with China on soybeans’, because having that market is what soybean farmers want,” Censky says. “And by restoring and getting rid of the retaliatory tariffs, and ideally getting some purchase commitments from China, would be like we did under the Phase One trade deal with China. That would be great. And that also puts a lid on, or a damper on, Brazilian expansion, which has long-term benefits for the U.S. soybean industry as well.”

From Despair to Hope: Why a Farmer on the Brink of Suicide Chose to Keep Going

Tue, 16 Sep 2025 15:41:22 GMT

It’s starting to feel similar to the 1980s. Not only are farmers on the brink of financial collapse, but there’s another grim reality setting in: The number of farmers dying by suicide is on the rise, and it could be at a rate U.S. agriculture hasn’t seen since the 1980s.

Even though statistics on suicides among farmers aren’t reliable from the 1980s because many were deemed “accidents” during that time, some estimates point to more than 1,000 farmers dying by suicide during that crisis.

“Unfortunately, it just almost seems like it’s a pandemic situation. I mean, there’s a lot of it, and it’s sad,” says Brent Foreman, a farmer in Shelby County, Mo., who knows the impacts of farmer suicides all too well.

“From an agricultural perspective, there’s a lot of stress in this industry, especially now,” Foreman says. “And somebody that’s contemplating this. I would say, we as farmers, we like to try to fix things, and we’re pretty good at it, but you can’t fix everything. If you get to a point like that, please reach out to someone, a family member, a good friend. Just please try to get some help.”

Touched By Suicide Three Times

Foreman isn’t just a fellow farmer concerned about the number of farmer suicides today. He’s a life-long farmer who’s been impacted by farmers dying by suicide three times, and the first loss happened when he was just 12 years old.

“My grandfather was a wonderful man, the most important male figure in my life,” Foreman says. “It happened 54 years ago, and it leaves a heck of a hole in your heart still today.”

Sixteen years later, his younger brother died by suicide, another sudden and tragic loss where there were no signs something was wrong.

“And then just a little over two years ago, my brother-in-law, who was 68, took his life,” Foreman says. “I’m telling you, it’s a devastating thing for loved ones to have to go through. It is tough. It’s really tough.”

Foreman says with his brother-in-law, there were signs he was struggling. He tried to take his life one time, but didn’t succeed. That’s when the family tried to get him help, which he agreed to, even going in for treatment.

“We thought that things were getting better, but they weren’t,” Foreman says. “At the beginning, I consulted our preacher, and I said: ‘I need some prayer and I need some advice.’ And he said: ‘Well, I do want to tell you something. I want you to be able to be prepared if you fail. Can you handle that?’ And I said: ‘Well, what I can’t handle is if I don’t try. I have to try.’

Experiencing three suicides, all by loved ones he was extremely close to, has been devastating. Foreman says the emotions are still raw today.

“It’s tough to live with, going through that so many times,” he says. “When I was a youngster I always told myself, the hurt, that’s something I would never do to anyone else. I just made like a pact with myself that I would never do that, because I’ve seen and lived firsthand how it affects you. From a family’s perspective, the pain goes on and on; it doesn’t quit. My wife, from her perspective, I can just see it in her eyes almost daily, the devastation.”

‘When We Lose Hope, It’s a Dangerous Place to Be’

When a person loses hope, that’s when the situation turns bleak.

“Sadly, that is the end all for a lot of people,” Jolie Foreman, executive director at Shelby County Cares , says. “Hope is key. If you have hope, you can keep going. When you lose hope, it’s just a very dangerous place to be.”

Lafayette County, Mo., farmer Ethan Daehler has been there.

“It was actually 2019 was kind of my low point,” he says.

Just six years ago, this Missouri farmer hit rock bottom.

“I was pretty much just down in the dumps, ready to just give up on life,” he says. “Thank the Lord something happened that kind of changed my way of thinking.”

In his early 30s, Ethan Daehler knows what it’s like to be on the verge of suicide. In 2019, he hit a low point. But something saved him, and he hopes by sharing his story, he will reach other farmers in a similar state of mind, reminding them that life is worth living.

(Ethan Daehler, Missouri Farmer )

Battling ongoing pain from an accident and stress of work, as well as struggles with the dynamics of a family farm, it all compounded the issue and pushed Daehler to a breaking point.

“I had a full-time job at the time working for another farmer and trying to do my own small operation,” he says. “We had family issues, which happens to a lot of farmers. There is a lot that compounds into thoughts, it’s just not financial problems, and I think that’s what people need to understand.

Daehler is now proof that it’s worth finding a reason to live, and he is only sharing his story to possibly save someone who’s in a similar spot as he was in 2019.

“There’s more to life,” he says. “I’m in a tractor now, baling hay, this is my fourth cutting. This is what I kind of dreamed of. Find something you love doing.”

A Mission to Prevent Farmer Suicides

That pain is something that fueled his daughter-in-law’s work. Jolie Foreman is the executive director at Shelby County Cares , a nonprofit whose goal is to improve the quality of life for children, youth and adults.

“I knew that we were very resource poor,” Jolie says. “So when I heard that this opportunity was available, we jumped on it, and we’ve just grown from the bottom up. We are definitely grassroots. They had faith in us in what our vision was, and they invested in it.

Through a grant,Jolie’s initial focus wasn’t suicide, but as she started doing research, she discovered there was a desperate need to provide help.

“My family had been impacted by suicide, and that’s kind of why I had jumped on board in the beginning,” she says. “But once we sat down at the table and really started to dive into the names and being in a small town, we know all of those lives that have been lost to suicide up here, that the producer was the one that was struggling.”

Fall Typically Heightens the Stress and Struggles

Jolie says they are currently seeing an increase in the number of farmer suicides happening across the country. Some of that is due to the various stresses involved with farming, but she says the fall is typically when the number of suicides in agriculture rises even more.

“In the spring, there’s a lot of hope,” Jolie says. “You’re planting, you’re coming off of the year that may have been good, may have been bad, but there’s always hope in the spring. And come September, I think the stark reality starts to set in either the pricing and the yields.”

September is Suicide Prevention Awareness Month , and when it comes to agriculture the facts are startling. Farmers are 3.5 times more likely to die by suicide than the general population. The suicide rate among male farmers, ranchers and ag managers is 43.7 deaths per 100,000 people, according to the National Rural Health Association.

The mounting financial pressures unfolding across the agricultural economy are adding another layer to an industry that already faces one of the highest rates of suicide compared to any other profession.

“Suicide is one of those things that’s hard to put on a scale,” Jolie says. “I mean we know the lives we’ve lost. We unfortunately can’t see the lives that we’ve saved, but I do know from talking to the local ambulance district that the calls have definitely increased; 988 is a huge resource here, and those calls have gone up and increased exponentially. And just through conversations I know that that rural agricultural piece is pressing behind it.”

She says one of the most startling discoveries she’s made during her research and work is the desensitization to death among farmers. She says through various conversations, it’s a reality that’s sad but true.

It’s Not Just Financial Stress That Causes Strains on Farmers’ Mental Health

Jolie says it’s not just financial stress that causes these struggles. It’s also the fact farming comes with many stresses, and for the most part, many farmers are so isolated and might not have access to adequate healthcare.

AgriSafe says if you’re a farmer, rancher, or farmworker, you already know that your work can expose you to a variety of hazards. They believe that with proper education and access to knowledgeable health professionals, farmers can live a long, healthy, and productive life.

(The Total Farmer Health Model, AgriSafe)

According to AgriSafe’s Total Farmer Health , the financial factor is one that can compound mental health struggles, but there are other factors that lead to the risks of farmer suicides including:

Weather
Sleep
Cognition
Social
Diet
Hazards
Spirituality
Healthcare
Fitness

Signs to Watch

And for family and friends, there are signs to watch out for, including neglect of the farm or ranch or even an individual who makes a big financial moves.

“Financial moves are also huge, which is why we’ve talked to attorneys, and we also talked to the financial providers like different banks,” Jolie says. “Are they moving their money? Are they giving away prize possessions? Are they changing their wills? Are they creating a sudden will? We just want to give those resources the tools that they need just to be like, ’Are you okay?’

Daehler says his message for someone in a dark place is you’re not alone. That message is something the Foremans also wants farmers to know.

“I want them to know that we care. I want to know they feed and fuel the world, but if their bucket is empty, they can’t pour into others,” Jolie says. “It’s OK to not be OK, to talk about it, to reach out, to ask your neighbor, to not afraid if you do see something or change in behavior or more isolation. Don’t be afraid to have that conversation. And there are a lot of people that care.”

Suicide Prevent Hotlines

It’s important to remember no matter where you are, there is help. 988 is the Suicide and Crisis Lifeline .

And for farmers, there is a specific farmer crisis hotline you can call that is toll-free at 866.586.6746.

The American Farm Bureau also has a Farm State of Mind campaign which builds awareness to reduce stigma and provides access to information and resources that promote farmer and rancher mental health wellness. You can visit that list of resources here .

Is the Ag Economy in a Recession? Why Economists and Farmers Don't Agree

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 18:59:54 GMT

Fewer agricultural economists think the row crop side of agriculture is currently in a recession, but when you consider most major row crops are seeing four consecutive years of poor profit margins, farmers argue an agricultural recession is currently underway.

Fifty-three percent of agricultural economists surveyed in Farm Journal’s July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor say the row crops side of agriculture is currently in a recession, which is down from the 72% who responded that way in May .

For the 53% who think agriculture is in a recession, economists argue the poor profit margins and another year of projected negative returns mean any cash reserves are being drained.

In the July survey, economists said:

“While the BBB will raise reference prices for the ARC and PLC, current market prices remain low, and crops went in with expensive inputs, so most producers are going to have a hard time profiting under the current conditions. Losses may be lessening but it’s a tough situation for grain producers.”
“2025 is bringing negative returns for at least the third consecutive year across nearly all row crops, with 2026 setting up to be another negative returns year.”
“Farmers are seeing cash flow drain and lower revenues compared to the past two years.”

The negative returns projected for 2025 and 2026 aren’t just due to low commodity prices, but the fact input prices, like fertilizer, are trending higher.

The poor profitability picture is impacting nearly every major row crop in the U.S., with at least four consecutive years of negative margins when you look at just the price versus costs.

(Krista Swanson, National Corn Growers Association )

Krista Swanson, chief economist for National Corn Growers Association (NCGA), says poor profitability margins are projected for every major commodity in the U.S.

“I think the big concern, especially as we turn to looking at 2026, is that we’re talking about for almost every single crop, 2026 being at least the fourth consecutive year of negative returns, and we’re not just talking about small negative returns on average, but over $100 an acre losses, and again, that’s not accounting for crop insurance or any government payments that is specifically looking at costs and returns from those grain sales,” Swanson says.

Why Some Ag Economists Argue Agriculture Isn’t in a Recession

Additional farm program payments from Congress, along with the fact land prices aren’t declining, are two reasons 47% of ag economists argue the ag economy isn’t in a recession.

In the July survey, ag economists who say the row crop side of agriculture isn’t in a recession, gave the following reasons:

“Farm program payments and strong corn exports. Land prices also do not appear to have declined, according to the August land report from USDA.”
“Although prices are currently low, production prospects are very good, supporting expected crop revenue and lowering crop cost of production per unit.”
“Prices and income are down sharply from their 2022 peak. Defining a ‘recession’ for a sector is difficult. To me, it implies a temporary downturn, but something like current prices appears more likely to be ‘the new normal’ than a temporary blip.”
Although crop farms have been facing considerable financial challenges, so far, farm finance has been sustained by cutting down on some of their working capital. I would worry about the actual (bigger) recession possibly to come. In my opinion, tariff effects will be less likely to take place immediately in this harvest season, but the shock (without negotiation scenario) will likely hit the farm input cost first, threatening farm financial health of 2026.”
“Government payments and crop insurance guarantees are removing the downside risk that would typically allow input costs to reset.”

Ohio State’s Carl Zulauf agrees a price squeeze is impacting margins for farmers, but a big piece of why he doesn’t think U.S. agriculture is in a recession is land values.

“It’s a price squeeze on the input prices versus the cost of the output prices,” Zulauf says. “But I think for the farm economy to be in a recession, you have to see some softening land prices both on the rental side and on the ownership side. And USDA just released on the first of August their latest land estimates, and I think a fair characterization of it is that land values were up, cash rent was stable to slightly up. That does not corroborate in my mind with a sector that’s in recession.”

American Farm Bureau Federal looks at how land values have trended over time. This is based on the latest UDSA NASS data.

(American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF))

USDA’s annual land survey released earlier this month shows on average, land real estate values came in at $4,170 per acre in 2025, which is a 4.3% increase from 2024.

Zulauf says you can make an argument that land values are holding steady because of government payments.

“But the point is that government payments are at least apparently keeping the land price in check,” he says. “And that’s a really big thing because of borrowing capacity and all that that goes along with asset prices.”

Not Just the Midwest and South Feeling the Financial Pinch

July Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor

(Lindsey Pound )

The latest Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor also asked which region of the country is seeing the most severe financial pressures impact farmers.

38% responded the Midwest
15% said the Mid-South
8% responded the West
8% also said the Northwest

“The first thing I have to remind everybody is we are incredibly diverse,” says Dan Sumner, an agricultural economist with the University of California, Davis. “So the top ag commodity in California is milk. And milk isn’t doing that bad these days in terms of prices. Beef is also a huge part of our economy. So I picked the two that are doing OK. The rest of them are struggling.”

He says from tree nuts to fruit and grapes, growers in California are also struggling with lower prices and higher costs.

He says the grape industry, especially wine grapes, are struggling with a demand problem. Tariffs and the uncertainty surrounding trade is also impact tree nuts and other fruits.

“Since China used to be such a big market for them, and China, you’re dealing with the government there. So you could write down what the tariffs are, and then you write down what the government policy says to the importers, and of course they’ve got their centrally planned economy. So it’s been tough on tree nuts with the loss of that Chinese market,” he says.

What to Watch Over the Next 12 Months

Economists say trade will play a major factor in the health of the ag economy over the next 12 months. It’s not just how the tariff issues are resolved, but with which countries the U.S. is able to strike trade deals.

“What happens with trade/tariffs is likely the biggest factor now and over the next 12 months across all of agriculture. I’ve made this statement in the past, but it continues to be the biggest wild card that could boost or harm the ag sector. Another factor I’m watching in the short term is crop size,” said one economist.

When asked to outline the two most important factors that could impact the ag economy over the next 12 months, economists varied in their responses, but said:

Trade negotiations
Government payments and farm safety net programs
Crop prices versus production costs
Strength in livestock markets
Biofuel policies
Interest Rates

Economists say provisions within the One Big Beautiful Bill are also important to agriculture over the next 12 months.

“The two most significant drivers are the recently passed Big Beautiful Bill that will spend about $50 billion on commodity programs over the next 10 years, as well as recently announced trade deals,” said an economist in the anonymous survey. “Increased reference prices in the BBB will help support farm income, and it appears the administration is making a point of securing deals for ag as part of the trade pacts being negotiated. These both bode well for agriculture.”

A Silent Truth Hidden in the Farm Economy: Farmer Suicides Are on the Rise

Tue, 05 Aug 2025 13:40:23 GMT

Signs of stress in the farm economy are everywhere you turn, and with corn futures hitting fresh lows again this week, crumbling commodity prices are painting a dreary outlook for 2025, and the financial pressures are causing another bleak reality: farmer suicides are also on the rise.

In 2024, used equipment prices were plummeting at auction, with values of larger horsepower tractors dropping more than 20% . As used equipment flooded the auction market, Alex Kerr, owner of Kerr Auction and Kerr Equipment , noticed another troubling trend.

“This is really odd for me,” Kerr said in a video he posted to social media last year. “Three tractors up here that I bought on auction, and I’m not going to tell you which ones, but they came off of suicide — the reason is that the farmers are no longer here. It’s the reason I’ve got the tractors.”

Kerr noticed the silent truth happening in the midst of the current downturn in the farm economy, which was the fact he was seeing an uptick in the amount of equipment coming to auction as a result of farmer suicide.

“If anybody needs to talk, call your friends, call us. We don’t need to sell you anything. I don’t want to buy more tractors this way,” Kerr went on to say in the video.

Kerr says he typically doesn’t know all the stories behind the tractors he sells, especially if it’s a consignment auction. As an auction company and used equipment dealer, his focus is on the numbers. But at this particular auction, he was compelled to do something.

“I noticed at one point after I had bought some stuff, and I had it all sitting on my lot together advertised for sale. I’m lining this stuff up, and it just kind of hit me. I’m like, ‘What happened to these guys to get them to a point they wanted to do that rather than continue on?’ I’m lining up those tractors, and I thought about it for a while and turned around and made the video,” Kerr says.

While there aren’t any stats on the exact number of farmer suicides happening across the U.S ., according to a CDC study published in January 2020, farmers are among the most likely to die by suicide, in comparison to other occupations. And with 259 farm bankruptcies filed between April 2024 and March 2025, it’s clear the financial stress on farms is only growing more severe this year.

“In most cases, if it’s a financial problem, the stereotypical answer people will tell you is, ‘Oh, keep your head up. It’ll get better.’ Well, if its a financial thing, the odds are it’s not going to get better. If you just keep digging the same hole, it only gets worse. So, you need to stop and make changes in your life or your business,” Kerr says.

Kerr’s video ultimately reached Bridgette Readel , a retired agronomist who is bringing more awareness to mental health among farmers through her social media following on X (formerly Twitter).

“To be honest, I got Alex’s video sent to me by a mutual friend — a farmer from Wisconsin. Alex had listened to one of the Twitter chats that I do on Fridays and heard the discussion which had been about farmer suicide, depression and anxiety,” Readel says. “Alex never wanted to step in front of the limelight, but he could see a trend, particularly in the geography where he works. And he wanted to do something just to raise a little bit of awareness.”

She says Kerr’s video struck a chord because not only was it bringing awareness to a topic not often discussed, but other farmers could relate to it.

“So many folks could recognize themselves in it: ‘That’s my same tractor’ or ‘I have thought about these very same thoughts or problems. How do I get away from them?’” Readel says. “For those who are closer to my age and remember what the ‘80s were like, there were a lot of farm ‘accidents’ that weren’t accidents. And now it’s a fear of what if myself, my neighbor, my brother, my sister or someone else is that next person?”

Agriculture is full of doers. If farmers see a problem, they immediately want to fix it. But when it comes to mental health, it’s not an easy fix — and not one that can be resolved on your own.

That’s why Readel says there’s one main message farmers need to hear right now: it’s okay to not be okay, but you have to ask for help.

“My message to farmers is to remember that you’re not alone, and when you see something with one of your friends or neighbors, ask them. Don’t be afraid. You don’t have to be a professional at it. You can help them find a professional, but sometimes it’s as simple as sitting in the buddy seat and asking how they’re doing. They might not answer you the first time, so ask it the second time,” she says.

As AgWeb reported in 2024, it’s important the friends, family, and business professionals close to farmers are prepared and able to effectively communicate in a mental health crisis. You can read more in this story, Your Mental Health Toolbox: How To Recognize The Warning Signs.

In the U.S., you can call or text the National Suicide Prevention Lifeline at 988, chat on 988lifeline.org, or text HOME to 741741 to connect with a crisis counselor.

Used Equipment Values Have Stabilized in 2025, But the Surprising Trend Might Not Last

Mon, 04 Aug 2025 16:03:22 GMT

If you’ve been in the market for used equipment, you know it’s undergone a dramatic shift since 2023. Whether as a buyer or a seller, the prices of used equipment within the row crop sector have dropped more than 20% in that time, marking one of the largest declines in history. Used equipment values for high-horsepower equipment have stabilized in 2025, but it’s a surprising trend at risk of reversing, especially if commodity prices continue to fall.

According to the Machinery Pete website , the price of used high-horsepower tractors fell between 18% and 23% from 2023/24 levels. Machinery Pete says the biggest surprise during the first seven months of 2025 is the fact used equipment prices have stabilized.

“After the huge rate of drop we saw in 2024, which mirrored the biggest drop I’ve ever seen back in 2014 to 2015, I thought it would keep sliding a little bit longer,” says Greg Peterson, who’s also known as Machinery Pete. “Instead, it has leveled off through the first half of the year. That, to me, has been the biggest surprise this year.”

The Catalyst for the Dramatic Drop

The catalyst for the dramatic drop in used equipment values in 2024 was the amount of used equipment flooding the auction market.

“It was a total supply issue,” Pete says. “For dealers, when the sales of new [equipment] slow down, the merry-go-round slows down. Then you’re paying 8% interest on this hugely expensive, late-model stuff sitting on your lot. The pressure just builds up.

The trifecta of a lack of buyers, too much equipment on dealer lots and high interest caused dealers to offload equipment on the auction market. That exposed a tough reality starting last year: strains in the farm economy meant not as many farmers were in the market to buy.

“I’ve seen it through different cycles. It’s just right now with the dollars involved in 2024, I’ve never seen dealers collectively be as aggressive as they were. Now, it’s easier for them to be aggressive because there’s fewer of them — but it was very painful for them, and there was a lot of loss,” Pete explains.

Why Used Equipment Prices Have Stabilized in 2025

The trend shifted in 2025, largely because the volume of equipment from dealers at auction hasn’t been the same this year. Prices have stabilized in 2025, but now the question is if they’ll stay that way.

“My gut and the data are telling me that used equipment values are still holding. So, unless there’s an uptick in the volume of large, late-model equipment — which could happen — or if new sales on high horsepower or large, new equipment like planters or sprayers continue to be soft, that will create more pressure on dealers possibly to move that excess used,” Pete says.

“Watching a Knife Fall”

Alex Kerr, owner of Kerr Auction and Kerr Equipment , owns one of the fastest growing auction companies across the U.S., hosting auctions in six states. Kerr is seeing the shift in equipment values first-hand, and like Machinery Pete, he’s also seeing used equipment prices find footing in 2025.

“I feel like we had flattened,” Kerr says. “In March of 2024, it was like watching a knife fall. If you were going off the balance sheet, using the value of your one- and two-year-old equipment, you lost 40% so fast that you couldn’t hardly write it down.”

Kerr says once the flood of used equipment from dealer lots quit hitting the auction market after 2024, values found footing and started to stabilize in 2025.

“Everybody just kind of pumped the brakes,” Kerr says. “Now we’re waiting to see if we’re going to have a demand spike. So, if for some reason grain would jump or interest would soften, maybe we could go back up. But at the moment, it really looks like we’re headed the other way, and we could start sliding again. But we had kind of planed out for a while.”

Financial Pressure Mounts

The ag economic picture doesn’t seem to be improving on the row crop side, Commodity prices continued to slide last week , while prices of important inputs — such as fertilizer — continued to climb from recent highs .

“We’re certainly feeling some pressure. Fortunately, we were able to come into the difficult season that we’re in right now with strong liquidity reserves that were built the prior two to three years. However, we are definitely seeing some pressure at this time,” says Josh Babb, a financial officer in Illinois with Compeer Financial.

Babb works with farmers across western Illinois, and with high input prices, it’s adding to the financial pinch farmers are feeling and seeing right now.

“In most situations, $4 corn price is going to be below break-even numbers for most operations. So yes, there is concern there,” Babb says. “However, we are built and structured in a way we want to be a resource for our clients, both in good times and the bad. So one thing we would really emphasize to our growers, and I really emphasize to my clients, is let’s be in communication. Let’s talk through this now. Don’t wait for it to become a problem. Let’s talked through it now and start putting a plan in place to navigate this.”

Kerr says the most surprising trend he’s seeing in Illinois is the difference between farmers who are in a strong financial position and able to buy equipment, versus farmers who have a high break-even cost and aren’t in a position to make large investments.

“What’s been surprising is the divergence between the typical farmer who farms a lot of acres, maybe rents a lot of ground — they just shut off from buying. They went cold,” Kerr says. “Then, you have the smaller farmer who maybe owns everything he farms and doesn’t have any kind of debt problems. They are very specific about what they buy, and they like the smaller, high-quality equipment. Demand for that stuff hasn’t backed off.”

Prices Could Explode

Kerr says for those farmers in a position to purchase equipment, there are some value buys out there today.

“Right now, anything within five years old is a really, really good buy,” Kerr says. “And if you’re one of the guys in the position to buy, you better buy it because the next leg up will be dramatic.”

Kerr says he doesn’t know what the catalyst will be for the next big shift in used equipment values, but last time it was post-Covid.

“This market is like a volleyball being held under water. And when it explodes, you’re going to see used tractors selling for $650,000 to %700,000. And the reason for that is the new ones have just kept going up in price while we’re all on the pause button. We’ve also stopped selling so many new ones. As the dealers quit rolling, instead of having a glut of tractors when the money supply finally shows up, the supply of used equipment will not be there.”

Kerr says when the pendulum shifts back the other way, and used equipment values trend higher, many buyers will be shocked how high used equipment values will go. Because unless a farmer has been in the market for a new piece of machinery lately, they don’t realize how high new equipment values have risen. That will force more buyers back to used.

Livestock Equipment Values Are Strong

Machinery Pete says the one sector of used equipment that’s seeing higher values today is good, used loader tractors.

“You’re getting into the livestock and dairy sectors where the times have been better. Auction pricing has been very strong. Not quite as high as it was in 2021 and 2022, but still holding up very solid,” Pete says. “We just saw a record price on a 24 model John Deere 6R145 last Wednesday. Hardly any hours on a loader, but it went $19,000 over the record auction price. So, we see that commonly now with that livestock-related equipment that’s holding up pretty well.”

Pete says the other segment that is continuing to post strong values it the pre-DEF equipment.

“That equipment is almost getting a little stronger,” he says. “Now the dollars are tight. But for farmers, it’s all relative. So, when a new one costs this much, and there’s a low-hour 13-, 14- or 15-year-old one, it’s not two people that want it. It’s like seven people. And then the pricing holds very strong.”

What's Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Mon, 28 Jul 2025 12:39:48 GMT

The view of the corn crop from the road this year looks good. Fields have lush green corn plants and even stands, which is why farmers had high hopes for bin-busting yields.

But as farmers wade into their fields and pull back the husks, some are finding an unpleasant surprise: an issue with overly tight wrapped tassels .

“It’s a very unique phenomenon we’re dealing with, and a lot of these issues have come from tassel wrapping,” says Dan Quinn, Extension corn specialist for Purdue University.

"Tassel wrap" showing up in WC Indiana (photos taken July 10), joining the party seen across much of the Midwest. Seems linked to hybrid, planting date, and pre-symptom temp swings. Potential pollination issues also observed ~10 days after symptoms.@PurdueAgronomy @PurdueAg pic.twitter.com/qVKDr7m1Th
— Dan Quinn (@PurdueCorn) July 21, 2025

Quinn started seeing the pollination problem in some of his own fields, and once he took a closer, he says it was quick to diagnose if you caught the field at the right time.

“It’s just a function of these tassels being almost stuck in the upper leaves,” he explains. “We’re seeing those upper leaves tightly wrap around the tassel, and in many cases it’s delaying the tassel emergence.”

He says that delay from the overly tight tassels is throwing off the synchronization of pollination at a critical time, and now it’s showing up in the form of poorly pollinated ears.

“The big thing with corn is we talk about the synchrony between pollen drop and the silk emergence,” Quinn says. “[Pollination] a very fairly short window in corn. Anything that throws out that timing can cause issues with pollination.”

What’s catching so many farmers by surprise is the fact crop conditions look phenomenal across many areas of the country this year thanks to good planting conditions and timely rains. In fact, USDA’s latest Crop Progress report shows nearly three-quarters of the nation’s corn crop is rated in good to excellent condition.

“You have to get in there and peel back the husks,” Quinn says. “You have to take a look at kernel development. Another thing we often look at is when silks, or the ovules on the kernel, are fertilized. When that occurs, the silks will detach. If you carefully pull back the husk, you have to be careful, and you can actually shake the ear to see which silks fall off or which ones actually stay attached.”

Pollination Problems in Iowa

Mark Licht, an Extension cropping systems specialist at Iowa State University, first started seeing corn pollination issues in early July .

“Some of those first tasseling fields were where this really started to show up,” Licht says. “I think that’s attributed to some of the characteristics around what’s causing it, and it kept going until probably about a week ago is when we kind of stopped seeing it in the field. But then, of course, farmers that had noticed the pollination issues, and that’s when, they were still getting agronomists, myself and others out to look at their fields.”

Tightly wrapped tassels in SW IN—seems to be hybrid specific. Planter was split in each field—The other hybrid and refuge shot normal tassels. pic.twitter.com/xyJFqaG4Oy
— Hillari Mason (@HillariMason) July 21, 2025

He says the tight tassel wrap usually lasts around three to five days and is noticeable in fields during that time. But it’s a short window that growers can see the tassel tight tassel wrap in their fields. And when it grows out of it, and the tassel blossoms out like normal.

That means if farmers didn’t notice the tight tassel in that short three to five day window, they might not even know pollination problems exist in their field until they actually walk into the field and check ears to see how the corn pollinated.

“If it unwrapped quickly, we might only see a dozen or two dozen kernels that were not pollinating,” Licht says. “Some of them that stayed wrapped up a little bit tighter, longer, we might see 25% to a third of that ear didn’t pollinate well.”

What’s the Worst-Case Scenario in Iowa?

For Licht, he has seen fields where eight out of 10 ears had issues.

“One of the fields that I was in, it was about 80% of the ears, and it was probably in that 25% of the ear with poor pollination,” he says. “So, this pollination issues [from tight tassel wrap] could be somewhat significant. That’s a worst-case scenario. Most of this is on the fields with pollination issues that I’ve seen are on the lighter side of things where it may only be a dozen kernels or so impacted on an ear, and it might only be 20% of ears impacted.”

At Least 10 States Are Reporting Pollination Problems From Overly Tight Wrapped Tassels

Licht says the problem is widespread, but in Iowa, it appears to be primarily isolated to the central and southeast portions of the state. He’s also heard reports of tight tassel wrap impacting pollination in Minnesota, South Dakota, Nebraska, Tennessee, Illinois and Indiana.

Add those seven states with reports of the problem in Missouri, Kansas and Ohio, and the total grows to 10 states seeing pollination issues this year.

What’s Really Causing the Tight Tassel Wrap Pollination Problems This Year?

Plants experience tight tassel wrap each year, according to Licht, but he says the crop typically grows out of it before pollination. This year, the leaves stayed tightly wrapped around the tassel as the plant started to pollinate, which is where the issues occurred.

“I think we do see these plants wrap up each year. Typically it’s more in the mid-vegetative time period, so eighth leaf stage up to 13 or 14 leaf stage,” he says. “This is really rare when it’s wrapping around the tassel as the tassel is starting to shed pollen. I’ve been an agronomist for 20 plus years, and I think this is only the second time I’ve seen it.”

Record overnight temperatures.

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien )

Both Licht and Quinn attribute this rare occurrence of tight tassel wrap during pollination to key environmental issues, including a lot of soil moisture and a sudden switch to high temperatures. The near-record overnight temperatures are also thought to have aided the problem. It was a “perfect storm” for issues to exist, and the hybrids impacted may have been more susceptible to rapid growth syndrome this spring.

“We had rapid growth at the end of that vegetative development,” explains Licht.

Can Bad Genetics or Poor Breeding Also Be to Blame?

Farmers are looking for someone, or something, to blame. After all, they have a lot riding on this year’s crop. And considering the issue is occurring across a wide geography of the Corn Belt, some critics are questioning if the issue is all weather or environmental related.

So that begs the following questions: Is it bad genetics? Is it poor breeding, or any one thing to pinpoint as the cause? Those are the questions we asked Licht.

“I don’t think so,” Licht says. “Yes, it is hybrid specific, and it’s happening across all brands, but some of the hybrids I’m hearing about were planted last year and the year before, but the problem didn’t show up. I think it’s really a combination of the hybrid and the environment coming together perfectly, and it’s more prolific this year.”

Kind of depressing pic.twitter.com/Mgf8dJd5dz
— Lance Schiele (@schiele_lance) July 22, 2025

The Issue Is Happening Across Several Seed Brands

Similar to Licht’s assessment, Quinn says it seems to be an issue across seed brands .

“I think this issue has been the biggest surprise because the areas where we see significant tassel wrap and the pollination issues are areas you would not expect to have any issues,” Quinn says. “The fields I’ve walked are some of the best corn fields in the state. Iowa has a lot of issues with [tight tassel wrap], but they have outstanding crop conditions in that state.”

Add ND to the list of states with wrapped tassels pic.twitter.com/VyeQ41og6s
— Blase Hendrickson (@hendricksonfarm) July 23, 2025

Quinn says from the fields he’s scouted, the issue is specific to a late April or first week of May planting date.

“A lot of that corn was reaching pollination in the past couple of weeks,” Quinn says. “If you look at our planting progress, on May 5, we had about 25% of the corn acres planted in Indiana. Based on that number, I would say maybe 10% to 20% of the acres can potentially be impacted in Indiana.”

He says best-case scenario is the tight wrapped tassel caused no pollination issues. Worst case, from what he’s seen, is 20% to 30% of a field is impacted by pollination issues.
___________________________________________________

Watch the full discussion with Purdue’s Dan Quinn exclusively on Farm Journal TV .
___________________________________________________

Quinn says that’s what makes it so hard to quantify the impact of pollination problems on the size of this year’s crop.

“We still need a lot more time to assess these fields, walk these fields, pull ears and take a look at pollination to get a better handle on the magnitude of it, Quinn says.

Why Isn’t the Corn Market Taking Note?

At the beginning of July, market analysts and traders were continuing to ramp up yield forecasts, which sprouted from the fact crop conditions are so strong, and moisture from the Gulf continued to pump rainfall across the Midwest. Some yield forecasts were as high as 189 bu. per acre, which would be well above the 181 bu. per acre national yield forecast currently projected by USDA.

With no way of knowing the scope or severity of the pollination problems, market analysts say the U.S. corn crop is still shaping up to be good. The pollination problems could trim a few bushels off the extremely high national yield forecasts being thrown around.

“From our vantage point, yes, it does help temper some of the 185, 186, 187 yield forecasts?” says Jim Emter, CEO of Van Ahn and Company. “We’re more in that tune right now of a 179 to 184 [bu. per acre national yield forecast]. It feels like we’re in a race to print the biggest one right now by a lot of people.”

Still, farmers are frustrated. They see the social media posts about pollination problems, and then some walk their own fields, only to find pollination issues firsthand. They’re frustrated the corn market isn’t reacting to what could be an unexpected production problem this year.

AgTraderTalk’s Garrett Toay was on “U.S. Farm Report” this week and was asked why the issue isn’t moving the markets yet.

“Nobody knows,” Toay says. “I’ve talked to industry contacts; I think it’s a fairly widespread issue. It’s not brand specific as we originally thought early on, and what I’m being told is the corn plant grew too quickly in some areas. It works itself out in some areas, but I think the problem of the market is it’s not too concerned about it or not paying attention to it because we don’t know how widespread it is. We don’t know if it will even have an impact on the actual yield. But it’s one of those things we’ll trade when we get there sort of thing.”

Puzzling Problem

It’s a puzzling problem, especially in fields where planting got off to a strong start, and from farmers to agronomists, it’s catching everyone by surprise.

“That’s been the biggest surprise is that we can still have issues even when things look really good out there,” Quinn says.

__________________________________________________

Watch the full discussion with Iowa State’s Mark Licht exclusively on Farm Journal TV.

___________________________________________________
Near Ideal Growing Conditions?

There’s no secret that pollination problems are an issue in corn this year. However, critics question how weather is playing a factor when the U.S. has experienced near ideal growing conditions this year.

Nutrien’s Eric Snodgrass says moisture has been almost ideal, but the overnight temperatures mgith be playing a factor into the issues farmers are seeing. Watch his discussion, along with the rainfall forecast for the next few weeks.

The Big Debate: Just How High Could the National Corn Yield Go This Year?

Wed, 09 Jul 2025 14:47:21 GMT

If you think it’s too early to talk about possibilities surrounding the national yield this year, you aren’t alone. The yield debate is already firing up on social media, stoking anger and an intense debate, but that’s not stopping traders. As corn crop conditions improve, and big yield numbers are being thrown around, it’s pressuring corn prices, with many farmers staring at cash corn with a $3 handle.

Rains moved across the Midwest over the weekend and early this week, aiding crop conditions. Those rains, combined with the fact the U.S. didn’t announce a trade deal with China yet, pressured prices even more. And as analysts explain, you can’t deny the U.S. corn crop could be a monster, even with the possibility of an increased number of prevent plant acres in the South.

“Your rain shower pairs with all the rest that are making the shades of drought lighter with each passing week,” says Mike North, president of producer division at Ever.Ag. “As conditions improve, talk of higher yields in the July WASDE are becoming more plausible when comparing current crop progress ratings to similar years in the past. Bigger yields make the possibility of a 2-billion-bushel ending stocks number more believable”

Crop Conditions Continue to Improve

Here’s a look at USDA’s crop condition ratings released Monday, which continued the trend of improving crop conditions. Nationally, corn is rated 74% in good to excellent condition, which is a one point increase in just a week. But the bigger story is the fact this is the third-highest rating for this week in the past 10 years.

The best conditions are highlighted in the dark green, which include:

Colorado: 90% good to excellent
Iowa: 86% good to excellent
North Carolina: 78% good to excellent
Pennsylvania: 78% good to excellent

It’s not perfect across all the “I” states. Southern Illinois and Indiana suffered a wet spring, with trouble getting the crop planted this year. And prior to this week, there were dry pockets in the northern part of Illinois, as well.

USDA says 68% of Illinois’ corn is rated good to excellent with 10% rated poor to very poor. In Indiana, the corn crop has a 63% good to excellent rating today, whereas 11% of the crop is in the poor to very poor category.

The U.S. Could Crush the National Yield Record

Still, when you look at the overall crop condition ratings, this chart by Ever.Ag shows ratings are historically high. And while USDA’s crop condition ratings don’t translate to a specific yield, with strong conditions, it’s possible the U.S. will not only see a national record corn yield this year, but crush the previous record.

U.S. corn crop condition ratings compared to the trend.

(Ever.Ag)

“The chatter’s out there,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “You hear the talk of the potential for something in the mid 180s, even as high as 190 [bu. per acre yield]. We haven’t been above trend in U.S. corn yields since 2018. That was the last time we were above trend. But there was a string of years, 2014 through 2018, we were above trend by a few percentage points every single one of those years. If you end up 2% above trend this year, you’re close to 185 bu. per acre. If you ended up 5% above the trend, you’re at 190.”

Considering the U.S. national corn yield has never topped 180 bu. per acre, that would be a huge jump. However, Vaclavik says he doesn’t like throwing out those big yield numbers so early, as there are other factors that also matter to the market.

“The fact that we’ve got so many acres, the fact that maybe farmers reduced inputs, but the crop ratings alone in a vacuum would suggest that those sort of numbers are possible,” Vaclavik says. “I’m a little skeptical, but the statistics would say it’s a possibility.”

‘This is a Special Corn Crop’

AgResource Company founder and CEO Dan Basse agrees with Vaclavik. The national corn yield could be in the range of 185 bu. to 190 bu. per acre, especially if the weather forecasts continue to show favorable conditions.

“I hate to say it, but as we start to model out condition ratings and yield, yes,” Basse says. “We need to get into August before we get some solidarity in all of this, but today it looks good. The weather forecast for the next couple of weeks look favorable, cooler temperatures with enough rain. So this is a special corn crop.”

Is 600-Bu.-Per-Acre Corn in the Cards This Year for David Hula, the Reigning World Record Holder?

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 19:09:48 GMT

David Hula doesn’t just know how to grow corn. He’s arguably the king of corn yields, and not in an area that’s necessarily known for growing monster yields.

Hula doesn’t farm in the heart of the Midwest where farmers are no stranger to big yields. The fertile farmland where he calls home is just 60 miles from the Atlantic coast in Charles City, Va.

He knows no year is perfect, but this year has been far from ideal.

“Every year is different, you know, every grower is up to a challenge,” Hula says. “And in 2025, we had a great planting it started out perfect. I mean we had good moisture and [it was] dry when planting, then all of a sudden after we were done planting, we got some rain. Then we got rain, and then we get cold. After that, things have been pretty decent except for this last 10 days we’ve been hot.”

That lack of GDUs might not be an issue for long. It wasn’t just hot to end June. Hula saw triple digit heat for a week straight.

“The heat that we’re having right now, which we’re having heat indexes well over 100, but the 100-day corn that we got planted, they’re pollinating now. So that’s a little bit of a concern, because I woke up this morning, and it was like 78°F, which corn likes to cool down at night. So I’m concerned a little bit, but not nearly as much as I would be concerned if we had the same kind of heat two weeks from now.”

Hula is the reigning world corn yield record holder. In 2023, these soils produced a corn yield of 623.84 bu. per acre. He’s broken the world corn yield record not just once, but five times.

But Hula isn’t sure 600-bu.-per-acre corn is in the cards for this year.

“It’s going to take more than one acre to do that this year,” Hula says. “That’s what my thought is right now, because of the way the season’s been, but we still have a long way to go before we’re finished because right now we have our 100-day corn pollinating. Our normal 111-to-114-day corn, we’re still 10 days from our pollinating. So, a lot can go in their favor, but the odds aren’t stacked in their favor right now.”

Just How High Will the National Corn Yield Be This Year?

Hula might not be staring at a record-breaking yield, but crop conditions are improving across the U.S. USDA’s latest crop progress report posted a corn crop rating of 73% good to excellent, which was a three-point jump in just a week. The best condition ratings are in Pennsylvania, Iowa and North Carolina.

While USDA’s crop condition ratings don’t translate to a specific yield, with strong conditions, it’s possible the U.S. will not only see a national record corn yield this year, but crush the previous record.

“The chatter’s out there,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “You hear the talk of the potential for something in the mid 180s, even as high as 190 [bu. per acre yield]. We haven’t been above trend in U.S. corn yields since 2018. That was the last time we were above trend. But there was a string of years, 2014 through 2018, we were above trend by a few percentage points every single one of those years. If you end up 2% above trend this year, you’re close to 185 bu. per acre. If you ended up 5% above the trend, you’re at 190.”

Considering the U.S. national corn yield has never topped 180 bu. per acre, that would be a huge jump. However, Vaclavik says he doesn’t even like throwing out those big yield numbers so early, as there are other factors that also matter to the market.

“The fact that we’ve got so many acres, the fact that maybe farmers reduced inputs, but the crop ratings alone in a vacuum would suggest that those sort of numbers are possible,” Vaclavik says. “I’m a little skeptical, but the statistics would say it’s a possibility.”

AgResource Company founder and CEO Dan Basse agrees with Vaclavik. The national corn yield could be in the range of 185 bu. to 190 bu. per acre, especially if the weather forecasts continues to show favorable conditions.

“I hate to say it, but as we start to model out condition ratings and yield, yes,” Basse says. “We need to get into August before we get some solidarity in all of this. But today it looks good. The weather forecast for the next couple of weeks look favorable, cooler temperatures with enough rain. So this is a special corn crop.”

It’s not perfect everywhere. More than 25% of the U.S. is experiencing drought conditions.

Is the forecast pointing to drought expansion in July, or will the U.S. see doses of moisture this month? Watch USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey discusses the July forecast with U.S. Farm Report.

Agriculture in the Bull's-Eye: Raids Reportedly Resume on Farms, Meatpacking Plants

Fri, 20 Jun 2025 18:40:22 GMT

After President Donald Trump reportedly ordered Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE ) to pause raids on farms and meatpacking plants last week, new reports say the administration is reversing course again. The on-again, off-again reports regarding ICE raids is sowing confusion for those who rely on immigrant labor and already causing labor shortages due to employees not showing up for work.

There was an update again late Friday, with President Trump saying he’s looking at new immigration policy steps that would allow farms to take responsibility for people they hire.

The Washington Post first reported Monday that ICE officials told leaders representing field offices across the country they must continue to conduct raids at worksite locations, which is a reversal from guidance issued just days earlier.

Officials with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) wouldn’t confirm the Washington Post’s report, but an agricultural association told Farm Journal the article is accurate based on their discussions with the administration.

Instead, DHS told us this:

“The president has been incredibly clear. There will be no safe spaces for industries who harbor violent criminals or purposely try to undermine ICE’s efforts,” says DHS assistant secretary Tricia McLaughlin. “Worksite enforcement remains a cornerstone of our efforts to safe guard public safety, national security and economic stability. These operations target illegal employment networks that undermine American workers, destabilize labor markets and expose critical infrastructure to exploitation.”

By Friday, there was another update. Reuters reported President Trump said he was looking at immigration policy steps that would allow farms to take responsibility for people they hire.

“We’re looking at doing something where, in the case of good, reputable farmers, they can take responsibility for the people that they hire and let them have responsibility, because we can’t put the farms out of business,” Trump told reporters. “And at the same time we don’t want to hurt people that aren’t criminals.”

According to Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook, the recent ICE raids are already creating absenteeism and labor shortages that could severally disrupt the U.S. food supply. Ag groups are again calling for immigration reform with hopes the issue will finally come to a head.

Ripple Effect of Immigration Crackdown

Joe Del Bosque, owner of Del Bosque Farms in Firebaugh, Calif., is experiencing the rollercoaster with labor, saying the shifting policy strikes fear in farmers and workers.

“There’s so much uncertainty as to what the administration’s going to do,” Del Bosque told Rook on AgriTalk this week.

Del Bosque says the raids on California produce farms are disrupting the harvest of perishable produce.

“They haven’t been really huge sweeps. They’re usually picking up a few people. But it creates a lot of fear, and people don’t show up to work. That’s just as bad as if they were taken away,” he says.

According to an exclusive report by Farm Journal’s The Packer , the ripple effect of Trump’s immigration crackdown on agriculture could be far-reaching — if the administration revives its focus on ag.

Kevin Kelly is the CEO of Emerald Packaging — the largest flexible packaging supplier to the leafy greens industry. Based in Union City, Calif., the company has been in the packaging business for 62 years. Kelly says the immigrant workforce in California is feeling uncertain and afraid.

“We’ve certainly heard folks aren’t turning up to work in the fields, and we’ve seen it in our facility. We verify everybody, so we know everybody in our facility is documented and can legally work in the United States,” Kelly tells Jennifer Strailey, editor of The Packer. “In our case, it’s brothers and sisters being deported, and other family members being afraid. Our employees are staying home to help their family members move, to take care of them or to take them to see an attorney — that kind of thing.”

Dairy operations in several states have also been raided recently. Dairy producers say they rely on immigrant labor to provide a stable year-round work force and to keep the U.S. food supply stable.

“We need these people to take care of our animals so we can produce food. Without animal care, we won’t have milk, cheese, butter — nothing,” Greg Moes, MoDak Dairy in Goodwin, S.D., told Rook.

The recent ICE arrests at Glenn Valley Foods of Omaha, Neb. have also led to absenteeism at meat processing plants.

“At the beginning of the Trump administration, we had this same worry with the crackdown — whether this was going to impact absenteeism and things like that,” says Brad Kooima, Kooima Kooima Varilek in Sioux Center, Iowa. “So, hopefully we can put that in our rearview mirror.”

By the Numbers: A Heavy Reliance on Immigrant Labor
The news this week of the Trump administration putting a pause on raids of farms and meat processors is welcome news for those in agriculture. From dairies and produce farms, to meatpacking plants across the U.S., these sectors rely heavily on immigrant labor.

Immigrant labor makes up a substantial portion of the meat processing workforce, with estimates ranging from 37% to over 50%. However, states like South Dakota and Nebraska have even higher concentrations of immigrant workers in meat processing — reaching 58% and 66%, according to the nonprofit Migration Policy Institute.

And a large portion of U.S. dairy farms rely on immigrant labor, with estimates indicating that over half of all dairy workers are immigrants. Specifically, these workers account for 51% of the total dairy workforce and are responsible for producing 79% of the U.S. milk supply.

Farmworker Justice estimates 70% of the produce industry’s farmworkers are immigrants. USDA’s estimates are lower — closer to 60%.

Record Prevent Plant Acres Cause Devastation for Southern Farmers

Fri, 30 May 2025 19:11:24 GMT

Farm Journal first reported on the somber situation in the South in April . The financial pain of growing cotton this year created a bleak outlook. At that time, National Cotton Council’s Gary Adams said, “We’ve gone beyond just losing money now that we’re to the point of losing the farm.”

Since then, the situation has grown even worse for farmers in the mid-South. It’s turned into a nightmare, with relentless rains causing devastation and preventing farmers from planting crops this year.

Wettest Spring in 133 Years

“It’s been a challenge,” says Franklin Fogleman, who farms in Marion, Ark., just across the bridge from Memphis, Tenn. “Not only have we been facing economic challenges, but we seem to have faced rain since the 1st of April that is unprecedented.”

The wettest spring in 133 years is wreaking havoc on farm fields, after what farmers thought was a strong and early start to planting.

“We got off to a very good start. The last 10 days or so of March, we had a very good run. We were in a very good position with an early start to the crop. It was dry, crops were coming up and looked good,” he says. “We received a rain around the 1st of April that wound up totaling 13" over a couple of days. We lost a substantial amount of crop at that time to flooding.”

That water stuck around for two to three weeks. They got back in the field just before Easter, before getting rained out again for a month.

“Then we received approximately 5" of rain over four days, and we’re back to having about 1,000 acres of the farm underwater that was planted and had small crops that probably won’t survive,” Fogleman says.

Farming Legacies on the Line

Fogleman’s family has been farming here since 1849. And this year, not only is it the acres he won’t be able to plant, but also the growing number of acres that need to be replanted. He’s running out of time to do both.

“We probably have 1,500 acres of rice, and I’m down to about 200 acres of beans to plant for the first time. I will probably have another 700 — maybe 800 — acres of things to replant again,” he says. “But the thing that’s tricky about that math is the roughly 1,500 acres of rice that we haven’t gotten planted, we won’t plant a crop on.”

Fogleman says once the water finally recedes on those acres — which could take days — it’s too late to plant rice. They’ve looked into planting soybeans instead, but the economics don’t support it.

“The window has basically closed on us in the last couple of days,” he says.

But the thing that’s tricky about that math is the roughly 1,500 acres of rice that we haven’t gotten planted, we won’t plant a crop on.

Franklin Fogleman, Arkansas

Farmers Face Historic Prevent Plant Acreage Numbers

That’s the reality for farmers from southern Missouri, Tennessee, Arkansas and Mississippi.

“The weather has just been terrible,” says Robert Agostinelli, who farms in Coahoma and Quitman Counties in Mississippi. ”We’ve attempted to plant four or five times, and every time we got rain within 24 hours. So, out of about 2,300 acres of cotton, we got about 550 acres planted. That’s all.”

Just 24% of his crop. That’s all this Mississippi farmer got planted this year, which marks a first.

“This has never happened before. I’ve been farming for 41 years, and this has never happened. It was just unheard of,” he says.

You can hear the devastation in farmers’ voices. What’s even more gut wrenching is Agostinelli took out 60% crop insurance coverage with ECO on top, but the ECO doesn’t cover prevent plant.

“Looking back on it, if we would have thought this was a possibility, we probably would have taken out different insurance or something,” he adds.

This has never happened before. I’ve been farming for 41 years, and this has never happened. It was just unheard of.

Robert Agostinelli, Mississippi

That’s the story for farmer after farmer. Crop insurance will help, but it’s not even coming close to making them whole.

“It helps, it’s better than not having it. But the truth is it’s like putting a band-aid somewhere that you need stitches. It’s not enough, it just enough to survive, if that,” Fogleman says.

“Farmers Are Hurting... They’re Hurting Bad”

Andy Graves, a crop consultant in Clarksdale, Miss., adds, “These guys are hurting. They’re hurting bad, and this isn’t what we needed.”

Graves owns Graves Agronomy Service. Even through this rain, he’s up early walking fields and doesn’t like what he sees: flooded out fields, suffocated crops that are barely hanging on and fields overgrown with weeds.

“I don’t know what’s fixing to happen with what’s going on up here right now because it’s as close to disaster as I’ve ever seen on the cotton side, anyway,” Graves says.

We needed a home run, and we’re not going to get it.

Andy Graves, Mississippi

Graves is in the middle of cotton country. It’s a big cotton area with seven gins within 30 miles. Even before the wet weather hit, cotton was facing a mountain of challenges, the main one being price.

“It’s not good. It is more of disbelief, honestly,” Graves says. “I get up every day, and I can’t believe this has happened. We’ve had two record crop years the past two years. And most everybody has not shown a profit, so it was bleak. It was a really rough winter trying to talk to some people about what we’re going to do this year. We needed a home run and we’re not going to get it.”

Today, about 65% of the cotton in Graves’ area is planted.

“A big majority of that just went in and got 6" of rain behind it,” Graves says. “I’m hoping for the best, but it’s cold and wet right now. I’ve never seen a spring like this.”

Cotton Isn’t the Only Crop Swamped By Heavy Rains and Low Prices

It’s not just cotton that farmers are battling. Soybeans are also struggling in the ground, and the corn is wind whipped or battered by hail and sand.

“We’ve had everything. It’s a mess,” Graves says.

Even if the rain stops, the other battle for farmers in the area is the weeds that are already too tall to effectively control.

“We’re going to throw everything we can at it and do the best we can to knock it back, but losing dicamba is going to hurt in the soybean crop. A lot of my cotton up here is Enlist cotton, so I still do have the Enlist technology. We can probably clean a lot of this up with combinations of Liberty, Roundup and Enlist, but it’s going to cost a fortune to do this.”

Farmers on the Brink of Going Under

Graves has been a crop consultant for nearly 30 years. He says without any disaster aid or help, he doesn’t know if some of these Mississippi farmers will survive.

“We have some really strong farmers up here, really strong,” Graves says. “They got that way because they farm very efficient, very smart and don’t make any dumb moves. We’ve had two record yields up here with cotton, soybeans and corn the last couple of years, but they’re financial losses. Now the prices are lower this year, and we’re faced with what we got now with weather. So, I don’t know what’s going to happen.”

Devastation Hits Infrastructure and Industries Farming Supports

The devastation isn’t just impacting farms. It’s the infrastructure and industries farming supports.

“It rolls downhill,” Graves says. “I mean, if they’re out of business, I’m out of the business. We’ve got gins, airports, chemical applicators — we have a community. It’s a tough deal to be looking at right now, and it’s not just here. I’ve talked to some people in Arkansas all the way up to Missouri in the past week. It’s all over the place.”

“This is Worse Than a Drought”

Farmers know how emotionally and mentally challenging it can be to cope with a drought. But with this relentless rain this spring, farmers can’t even get their crops in the ground, and that makes it worse than dealing with drought.

“In our area of the Delta, we have irrigation. So, when it’s dry, we can cure that problem,” Fogleman says. “It can be an expensive solution, but it is a solution that’s better than nothing. When your crops are underwater, when it is too wet to get into fields to fertilize or when it’s too wet get into the fields to spray, there’s really nothing that you can do.”

Agostinelli says for cotton, it was in the red any way he looked at it this year.

“This is the kicker. The price is so low that if we farmed it, we will lose even more money. That’s how bad it is,” he says. “It’s very stressful and if there’s no assistance coming, I can just see a lot of farmers going out this year.”

Fogleman adds, “Farmers are pretty resilient and they have a lot of fight, but I have to admit, as I talk to my friends, as I talk my neighbors, these are trying times and people are feeling the impacts of it.”

This is the kicker. The price is so low that if we farmed it, we will lose even more money. That’s how bad it is. It’s very stressful and if there’s no assistance coming, I can just see a lot of farmers going out this year.

Robert Agostinelli, Mississippi

Your Next Read: Cotton Farmers Describe Somber Situation: ‘We’ve Gone Beyond Losing Money to Now Losing the Farm’

Current Weather Pattern Set To Take A Dramatic Shift: What You Need to Know

Tue, 27 May 2025 17:11:45 GMT

The forecast is calling for a hot and dry June, which is a stark contrast from the cool and wet weather pattern that’s been dominating. As rains continue to suffocate the southern Corn Belt and the mid-South, those areas could face higher amounts of prevent plant this year, while much of the West will turn dry and warm by next week.

Past 72 hour precipitation totals.

(Pivotal Weather )

Over Memorial Day weekend, parts of Oklahoma, southern Missouri and Arkansas saw up to 5" of rainfall. Texas also saw rain, with severe storms even producing large hail. Posts on social media showed grapefruit-sized hail pounding areas of the state.

Never seen hail this big before. In Afton, Texas now !! #txwx pic.twitter.com/tYMM7TML8n
— Pie☈☈e-Ma☈c Doucet (@PMDStormchaser) May 25, 2025

A massive 6-inch, 1.5-pound hailstone, roughly cantaloupe-sized, fell near Afton, Texas, leaving locals stunned. Witness Colt Forney captured the incredible moment! ( May25, 2025)

Have you ever seen hail this insanely huge? pic.twitter.com/efXuX9dA7j
— Weather Monitor (@WeatherMonitors) May 26, 2025

The forecast for the rest of this week shows that pattern shifting even farther south, with the Southeast seeing more than 4" of rain.

“We saw places in Missouri, Iowa, Minnesota — especially the Dakotas — that picked up well over 3" of rain,” says Michael Clark of BamWX . “Now going forward, the forecast for the next seven days is a much drier outlook for those areas with the heaviest rain focused across the deep South — where they don’t need it. That includes southern Missouri, southern Kansas, Oklahoma and Arkansas. They don’t need rain there right now.”

Precipitation forecast over the next 72 hours.

(Pivotal Weather )

But it’s not just the rain meteorologists are watching. The cooler temperatures are also a concern.

“This map [pictured below] shows the growing degree heat units and the anomaly, or the departure from normal, for the next 10 days,” Clark says. “You can see nobody’s really running above. We’re running quite a bit below, so we’re going to struggle to really accumulate any heating degree or growing degree days right now.”

Cooler temperatures have created a problem with growing degree units (GDUs) to end May.

(BAM Weather )

Those cooler temperatures will be short-lived, though. NOAA’s heat index forecast for the first week of June shows south Texas seeing temperatures rise above 100°F. Pockets of the Plains, Midwest, Southwest and Southeast will hit 85°F to 95°F.

Heat index forecast for the first week of June.

(NOAA )

This could be a precursor for what’s to come the remainder of June, according to Clark.

“The focus is turning to a much warmer temperature pattern this summer,” Clark says. “Our precipitation outlook for June features a risk for below-normal precipitation, and really, we might already be seeing hints of that. But it’s normal to above-normal in the rainfall department in the East and Southeast right now for the month of June.”

Precipitation outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

Temperature outlook for June.

(BAM Weather )

The hot and dry forecasts aren’t new. Meteorologists have been concerned about dryness in the Western Corn Belt since winter. But Clark says the active weather pattern we’ve seen this spring could put those forecasts on a detour this summer.

“The models have had a tendency to dry this up and pull rain out of the forecast, but we keep seeing cold fronts and big, active pattern signals coming through. We do think that ends, but some persistence in the pattern overall might yield that we see a couple more chances of rain and cooler shots of air in the first half of June. Maybe that pattern shows up the second half of June into July,” Clark says.

The good news is leading into that drier and warmer spell to start June, the recent rains have helped improve the soil moisture.

Soil moisture map shows improvement in parts of the upper Midwest, South and West.

(BAM Weather)

As More Farmers See Initial ECAP Payments Hit, When Should They Expect The Remaining 15%?

Tue, 15 Apr 2025 17:07:30 GMT

Back in December 2024, Congress passed the American Relief Act, part of which included $10 billion in Emergency Commodity Assistance Program (ECAP) payments. Farmers are now reporting they’re starting to see those payments hit their bank accounts this week.

“Remember, they’re only getting 85% now because there was only $10 billion allocated. So the remaining 15%, plus or minus, will be issued later. I think farmers should collect the full 15%. If not, it will be really, really close,” says Farm CPA Paul Neiffer.

The emergency relief was created as a way to help offset financial losses for agricultural producers last year, and USDA then had 90 days to roll out the program. Farmers can sign up until August 15.

Farmers can use the ECAP calculator provided by USDA-FSA to get an idea of what their payment could be potentially.

(Lori Hays)

Timing of Remaining 15% of Expected Payment
The next question is: when will USDA issue the remaining 15%? Neiffer expects those payments to be issued shortly after the initial signup deadline ends.

“That likely won’t be issued until after August 15, because the sign up period doesn’t end until then. And that seems like a very long sign up period for this, but there will be certain farmers who don’t have their acres in the database, so to speak, and they’ll have to get those updated with FSA.”

According to Neiffer, there’s no reason to believe USDA won’t issue the remaining 15% of expected payments. He even says they probably could’ve issued 95% of the payments to start.

“Remember, these payment rates got reduced for corn, soybeans and wheat by a little bit,” Neiffer says. “Even at the higher payment rates with all the acres I saw, it was only about $10.2 billion. And then by the time you factor in payment limits and so on and so forth, they’re going to be under $10 billion. So, farmers should get the whole 15%.”

Payments will be made to farmers on a flat per-acre rate on 100% of planted acres, or 50% of those prevented from planting.

Neiffer says he’s hearing the initial signup period has gone smoothly. Not only has it been quick, payments are then happening within weeks of signing up.

Specific Requirements For Eligibility
To be eligible, farmers must meet the following requirements, according to Betty Resnick, American Farm Bureau Federation economist:

Be actively engaged in farming
Have an interest in input expenses for a covered commodity
Have reported acreage of eligible commodities to FSA for the 2024 crop year planted and prevent plant acres to FSA on an FSA-578, Report of Acreage form
Have reported acres that were prevented from being planted to FSA for the 2024 crop year on an CCC-576 Notice of Loss form (if applicable)

Eligible Crops And Rates
Commodities included in the program are:

Wheat: $30.69
Corn: $42.91
Sorghum: $42.52
Barley: $21.67
Oats: $77.66
Upland cotton & extra-long staple cotton: $84.74
Long & medium grain rice: $76.94
Peanuts: $75.51
Soybeans: $29.76
Dry peas: $16.02
Lentils: $19.30
Small chickpeas: $31.45
Large chickpeas: $24.02

Eligible Oilseeds:

Canola: $31.83
Crambe: $19.08
Flax: $20.97
Mustard: $11.36
Rapeseed: $23.63
Safflower: $26.32
Sesame: $16.83
Sunflower: $27.23

To calculate your potential payment, use this USDA calculator. Producers can also contact their local FSA offices with additional questions.

Hear more details from Neiffer about not only the program, but also possible tax changes this year.