USDA Reports

High Stakes: Trump-Xi Summit, WASDE and E15 Set Up Crucial Week for Ag Commodity Markets

Mon, 11 May 2026 10:48:18 GMT

A faltering spring rally for grains and the soy complex may hang in the balance as producers and traders prepare for a week jam-packed with potentially market-moving events.

On Tuesday, USDA will deliver its May World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, which will offer the department’s initial outlook for the new crop year.
On Wednesday, the House is slated to vote on long-sought legislation to green-light year-round sales of E15.
What is likely to be the main event, President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit China Thursday and Friday, where a meeting with leader Xi Jinping is hoped to bring affirmation that Beijing will follow through on commitments to buy U.S. soybeans and possibly other agricultural goods.

There’s also the Iran war, which in the past week overshadowed individual market fundamentals as a U.S. proposal to open the Strait of Hormuz and end the conflict sparked a crude selloff that dragged grain markets back from recent highs.

Let’s break down what’s at stake:

May WASDE

While the May outlook often sets the initial tone for the new crop year, the timing of the forecast during corn and soybean planting season leaves high potential for changes later in the year, with both acreage and yield still fluid.

Over the past 30 years, on average, USDA’s initial forecast for soybean ending stocks is 78 million bushels higher than the final estimate. For corn, that disparity is even wider at 129 million bushels higher than the initial forecast. With fuel and fertilizer prices rising sharply this spring, that further exacerbates the variability around potential yields as farmers may cut inputs to save costs.

Due to winter wheat already being planted and the agency including survey yield data in this report, the margin of error in ending stocks is smaller and averages 51 million bushels lower than the final.

The May WASDE is generally neutral in terms of the direction it moves the price of row crops based on these trends the past 30 years:

July HRW and SRW wheat futures ended the day of the WASDE release higher 14 times
December corn higher 16 times
November soybeans higher 12 times

In absolute values, the change in price is 11 3/4 cents for July HRW wheat, 10 1/4 cents for July SRW wheat, 7 cents for December corn and 11 1/4 cents for November soybeans. Still, outliers are possible. 2022’s initial forecast sent wheat futures soaring, with KC July wheat rising 69 1/2 cents following the release that compounded on worries of lower production from the Black Sea at that time.

E15

After being once again left on the cutting-room floor during legislative wrangling over the farm bill, E15 legislation is slated for a House vote. Following farm bill passage last month, House Agriculture Committee Chairman Glenn ‘GT’ Thompson said a vote on standalone legislation would take place on May 13 . High fuel prices driven by the Iran war have intensified bipartisan pressure to pass the bill before the midterm elections, though oil-state opposition remains a hurdle.

It isn’t yet clear a vote will take place. Full passage would bolster biofuel demand at the margin, while a successful House vote would perhaps provide a timely psychological lift for corn futures.

Trump-Xi Summit

The postponement of the Trump-Xi meeting in mid-March sent soybeans into a tailspin , underlining the stakes surrounding the rescheduled summit. Soybean producers want to hear affirmation – from Beijing – that China is prepared to follow through on what the White House has said is a commitment to buy 25 million metric tons of soybeans per calendar year for the next three years. That’s less than what China was buying before Beijing’s boycott of U.S. purchases that undercut the market last year. China has yet to affirm specific targets.

Soybean exports picked up as China resumed purchases after Trump and Xi struck a one-year trade truce in October, but continue to run behind the pace necessary to hit USDA’s current marketing year projection of 1.54 million bushels.

(Pro Farmer)

The good news is that such a commitment may be low-hanging fruit. What’s more, reports have portrayed Chinese negotiators as open to purchases of an array of agricultural goods, including beef, poultry and non-soybean row crops – in addition to soybeans. Trade watchers say an agreement that would see China buy agricultural goods and aircraft alongside further tariff reductions may be the summit’s most likely outcome, with thornier issues kicked down the road.

A deal could trigger a relief rally, but risks remain. Friction over the Iran war, AI guardrails and Taiwan could make Xi reluctant to commit. Given how sensitive soybeans have been to China-related headlines, a disappointing outcome could quickly rattle the market.

The War and the Market

The nosedive by crude-oil futures this past week dragged corn, wheat and soybeans back from new highs, raising questions about the staying power of a budding spring rally that saw December corn briefly push above the $5 a bushel mark. The coming week will see market participants run a gauntlet of market-moving fundamental events that may end up setting near-term direction.

USDA Expands Farmer Surveys to Improve Data Accuracy, Relocates Staff Closer to the Farm

Fri, 24 Apr 2026 12:59:40 GMT

USDA is moving to adjust how it collects and communicates agricultural data following an April 22 meeting with stakeholders in Kansas City, pairing expanded farmer surveys, increased transparency efforts and new performance tracking with a sweeping reorganization that will relocate staff closer to agricultural regions.

Leading into the USDA Data Users meeting on Wednesday, Farm Journal spoke one-on-one with USDA Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden. While he wasn’t in the room physically on Wednesday, instead joining virtually, Vaden made clear he intended to play an active role in the discussion.

“I’m excited about that because one of the things that both the Secretary and I are committed to is better transparency, especially when it comes to our data,” he says. “USDA data needs to be the gold standard, and we need to be brave enough to take feedback. Everyone can always improve.”

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That theme, being “brave enough” to hear criticism, carried through both the meeting and the department’s broader outreach effort. As USDA, ERS, NASS, World Board and others participated in a panel on stage followed by Q&A, they had unified message that they’ll do whatever it takes to rebuild farmer trust and restore confidence in USDA data and reporting.

Earlier this month, USDA closed a public comment period inviting anyone who interacts with its data to weigh in on how it could improve.

“What we have done is we had a public comment process which just closed on the 9th of April, where we asked everyone who has any interaction with our data, tell us what you think,” Vaden says. “Are there ways that we can collect data better? Are there ways that we can report data better?”

Data Users Meeting Highlights Concerns Over Participation, Accuracy

At the Kansas City meeting, one issue stood out: falling farmer participation in USDA surveys and what that means for the reliability of widely watched reports.

Officials from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) acknowledged that response rates have dropped to historically low levels. The March 31 planting intentions report drew responses from just 37.6% of surveyed producers, down from 44.3% a year earlier and the lowest on record. But they also talked about plans to improve those numbers.

That decline has raised concerns across the agriculture sector, particularly after USDA made sizable revisions to 2025 corn acreage estimates earlier this year. Because markets rely heavily on USDA data for price discovery, risk management, and policy decisions, even small questions about accuracy can ripple widely.

In response, NASS plans to significantly expand its farmer survey efforts in an attempt to rebuild participation and improve data quality.

USDA Plans Expanded Farmer Surveys to Improve Data Reliability

According to NASS Administrator Joseph Parsons, the agency intends to increase the number of farmers surveyed for major acreage reports, pending approval from the Office of Management and Budget.

The most immediate change would come with the June 30 acreage report, where USDA plans to boost its sample size by roughly 35%. Additional increases of about 10% are planned for the September, December, and March reports.

The goal is straightforward: generate more usable responses and improve the precision of crop estimates.

Beyond simply expanding outreach, USDA is also working to improve how it communicates uncertainty in its reports. Parsons says the agency will incorporate more “plain language” explanations to help producers, traders, and policymakers better understand confidence levels and potential variability in the data.

Reorganization Announcement Follows Immediately After Data Meeting

Just one day after the Data Users meeting, USDA underscored how quickly change is unfolding across the department by announcing a sweeping reorganization that will relocate major divisions, including positions tied to data and research, out of Washington, D.C.

The agency announced the broad reorganization and relocation of staff, saying it will modernize operations. But some stakeholders warn the changes could strain staffing levels and institutional expertise at data-focused offices, including NASS and the World Agricultural Outlook Board, following recent departures tied to the Deferred Resignation Program.

According to USDA’s Thursday announcement, the overhaul will shift key components of the Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS) and the Research, Education, and Economics (REE) mission area closer to agricultural regions, in what officials describe as an effort to modernize operations and better align staff with the producers they serve.

At the center of the changes is the creation of a new National Food Safety Center in Urbandale, Iowa, which will serve as the primary hub for FSIS administrative, technical, and support functions. The facility is expected to house roughly 200 employees and become the agency’s largest office. A separate science center in Athens, Georgia, will expand capabilities in microbiology, chemistry, and epidemiology.

USDA officials emphasize that frontline inspection operations, which account for roughly 85% of FSIS personnel, will not be affected, and no reductions in force are planned. Additional staff tied to international operations will be located in Fort Collins, Colorado, while about 100 positions will remain in Washington for policy and congressional work.

The restructuring also reaches into the department’s data and research arms.

The Economic Research Service (ERS) and National Institute of Food and Agriculture (NIFA) will relocate additional positions to Kansas City, reinforcing a move first initiated during the previous Trump administration. NASS will also shift certain Washington-based roles to St. Louis and other regional offices while maintaining its nationwide data collection network.

Meanwhile, the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) will begin decommissioning the Beltsville Agricultural Research Center in Maryland, redistributing research programs across the country to better align with regional agricultural needs and modernize aging infrastructure.

USDA leaders frame the reorganization as a move to reduce duplication, improve accountability, and strengthen connections between federal agencies and the agricultural sector. Deputy Secretary Stephen Vaden says the changes are intended to better align staff with mission needs, while agency leaders emphasize improved workforce support, training, and recruitment.

Greater Transparency and Accountability Ahead

The timing of the reorganization, coming immediately after a meeting focused on data credibility, highlights the broader scope of USDA’s efforts to rebuild trust and improve performance.

Alongside expanded surveys and structural changes, the department is also taking steps to more directly evaluate its forecasting accuracy.

Vaden says USDA is planning to launch an annual report, potentially beginning this fall, that will compare its crop forecasts against final production totals after the marketing year concludes. The effort is designed to give stakeholders a clearer picture of how USDA estimates stack up over time.

“This is not something that will be solved in a day,” Vaden says. “But we have to be brave enough to take feedback and issue public reports on how we did and how our numbers ended up stacking up against the final facts, so that we can begin the process of ensuring that there is continuous improvement with regard to the quality of USDA data.”

Behind the scenes, that process is already underway. Vaden says he is receiving internal briefings on the feedback submitted through the Request for Information and is meeting directly with trade groups and farmer representatives.

“I, as a matter of fact, am receiving a briefing later today on what the comments that came in as part of our request for information show, and how we can have further areas of improvement,” he says. “And I am meeting with some of the commenters… to hear from them personally about how we could do our job better.”

Is USDA’s Reorganization Impacting Data Accuracy?

Even before the formal announcement, questions had already been circulating about whether internal restructuring could affect USDA reporting.

Vaden dismisses that idea.

“Well, first, with regard to your question about whether there’s a link to the data, the answer is no,” he says. “Our WASDE professionals are professionals in the Office of the Chief Economist. They are unbothered by the reorganization. It doesn’t affect their day-to-day work at all.”

In practical terms, he suggests the impact on those teams is minimal.

“The only thing they’re going to have to do is leave the South Building and come over here to the Witten Building for lockup,” he says.

Still, the scale of the changes is significant. USDA is looking to shrink its Washington footprint, where the South Building is more than 70% vacant and carries over $1.6 billion in deferred maintenance, while relocating employees closer to rural communities.

“No private sector company in the world would pay for real estate that is more than 70% vacant,” Vaden says.

Q&A Underscores Concerns Over Trust, Participation, and Transparency

The question-and-answer session at the close of the Data Users meeting made clear that concerns about USDA data go beyond methodology.

Several attendees pressed officials on how the agency plans to reverse declining farmer response rates, with some noting that lower participation could introduce bias into key reports. NASS officials acknowledged the concern and pointed to expanded survey efforts as a primary solution, while also emphasizing outreach to better explain why farmer participation matters.

Officials say they are exploring additional ways to engage producers directly, including clearer communication about how survey data is used and stronger assurances around confidentiality.

Questions also focused on large revisions to recent crop estimates, with market participants asking whether those changes signal deeper issues in data collection or modeling. USDA representatives stressed that revisions are a normal part of the statistical process but acknowledged the need to better communicate why those adjustments occur and what they mean for users.

Another recurring theme was transparency, specifically, how USDA conveys uncertainty in its reports. Attendees urged the department to provide clearer indicators of confidence levels and potential variability, particularly during periods of market volatility. NASS officials pointed to planned “plain language” additions as one step toward making reports more accessible and easier to interpret.

Some participants also raised concerns about whether internal changes, including the department’s broader reorganization, could disrupt data quality or continuity. USDA officials reiterated that statistical staff and processes remain intact and said efforts are being made to ensure consistency regardless of organizational shifts.

Finally, several questions centered on accountability, and how USDA evaluates its own performance over time. Officials confirmed that the department is working toward publishing a regular assessment comparing forecasts to final outcomes, a move widely viewed by attendees as a meaningful step toward rebuilding confidence.

Grains Fade Quiet WASDE Still Trading Headlines? Cattle Make New High Closes

Thu, 09 Apr 2026 21:44:55 GMT

Grain and livestock closed mixed on Thursday.

Quiet WASDE
As expected the April WASDE had only minor revisions in the domestic balance sheet from last month as U.S. ending stocks were left unchanged for corn at 2.127 billion bu. and 350 million bu. for soybeans.

Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says, “USDA did rearrange some of the soybean demand estimates with crush raised 35 million bu. while exports were lowered the same amount.”

Tthe bigger changes came from global numbers with world corn ending stocks up 2.1 MMT at 294.8 MMT and wheat was up 6.2 MMT at 283 MMT, while soybeans stocks at 124.8 MMT were down .5 MMT.

South American Production
USDA left South American production unchanged with soybean production in Brazil at 180 MMT and Argentina at 48 MMT. Brazil corn was unchanged at 132 MMT, Argentina at 52 MMT.

However, the Rosario Grain Exchange raised production to 67 million metric tons, which is 15 million above USDA. So why the disconnect?

Nellinger says, “You know,we often see that, right? CONAB numbers for the Brazil numbers or the Rosario Grain Exchange on the Argentine numbers. Oftentimes, there’s month, two, three-month stretches where those numbers out of the Southern Hemisphere diverge from what
the USDA usually catches up but it could be well down the road before we see that.”

Big Report in May
The bigger report will come in May when USDA releases its first new crop balance sheets and incorporates the March 31st acreage numbers.

He says, “They’re going to use trend line yields. In my mind, the big question is where do they stick demand at? And that’s an unknown, right? I mean, the February outlook number had some big differences in demand from what we’ve seen here, you know, as far as corn and beans go, both of those. And so I think it depends on what the demand is on the May report as to where the, you know, market. fireworks may or may not be. And at least it gives a baseline of what the market can expect based on what the March acreage and the trend line yields are.”

Soybean Crush Vs. Exports
How long can USDA increase soybean crush to make up for lower exports?

Nellinger thinks that relationship is getting stretched. “You’re at or close to record margins on profitability on the crush and crushers are one of the main features I think that are holding the bean market up because they’re buying beans they’re selling meal and oil they’re making $2 plus a bushel doing it but there’s a capacity constraint there and so if the export demand continues to fall I’m not so sure the USDA can continue to offset it one for one with an increase in the crush because of those constraints.”

Grains Divorcing From Headlines?
Even if the WASDE was more eventful would the grain markets have traded it or are they still trading war headlines?

Nellinger thinks the influence of the war and crude oil on the grains is starting to weaken.

“It seems like corn and wheat have, and it started even last week ahead of the Easter holiday on last Thursday. It seems like beans are a little more still correlated due to the soy oil and crude oil correlation but if we see the ceasefire and a longer term peace agreement and normal flow
out of the Strait of Hormuz, then I think it’s just a matter of time before crude oil gets back at least into the $80s, if not $70s and back to the $60s. It might take several weeks to months to see that. If you see that, then that continues to be a little bit of a drag, in my opinion, on the soy oil market and will affect the soybean crush. So I think there is still some correlation from the soy oil to crude oil, but it looks like corn and wheat have a little bit broken that starting last week.”

Soybeans Holding Up on Crush or China Demand Hopes?
Still, soybeans have held up better than corn and wheat as the crude oil trade has been unwound.

Nellinger says it is tied to crush but also China.

“The market is holding a lot of optimism on this mid-May meeting that President Trump and the Chinese president are going to have, hopes that China is going to restart a big export book of U.S. beans. I think that’s part of it,” he says.

Plus, with strong demand for bean oil for biofuels if China does buy more beans the acreage number may be too small.

“If we have any little hiccup this year on production, and it gets extremely tight on the balance sheet. Now, that’s assuming current demand, and I’m not so sure that’s going to be accurate at the end of the day, but it’s going to take several more months to figure out whether China is
going to buy our beans and sustain export demand where it’s at, or if the USDA is going to have to still drop that another $100 million, $125 million eventually because of a lack of Chinese exports.”

Funds Holding Long Positions
The funds are now long in the entire grain complex, so do they defend those positions until the China meeting in mid-May or until the crop gets planted?

Nellinger thinks that is a possibility, “The funds are record long in soy oil, they have even a healthy long in soy meal. They’re just off of a record high in their soybean link, still about 200,000 contracts. And it looks to me, like you said, they’re going to defend that until we see some more definitive answers out of that May trade meeting with China.”

He is also concerned that the funds are long in corn and technically are on shaky ground.

“If they close lower on the week and ugly, trade below the 50-day moving average, it could just increase the fund liquidation, and that could
spill over into the rest of the month of April here into first notice day.”

Wheat Removes Risk Premium
Funds are also long in the wheat market and have already removed some weather and war premium the last few sessions especially with rains forecast in parts of the hard red winter wheat belt.

However, Nellinger says it may not be enough. “There’s chances of rain in Kansas, but so far it looks like they’ve missed those chances. There’s
been some real spotty rains. They’re kind of getting to a critical time frame. So if you fast forward three, four weeks down the road, and they haven’t seen better rains in Kansas especially, but also Oklahoma, Colorado, the panhandle of Texas, they’re going to continue to see crop
conditions deteriorate, their yields coming off the top. That could give us some support down the line. But right now, it just seems like the wheat market is back to the old wheat market.”

Cattle Higher But Waiting for Cash?
Cattle futures were up a second day but live cattle have failed to take out the new contract highs despite the higher equity markets.

Nellinger says the market may be waiting for cash trade but he thinks cattle have shown resiliency.

“We had a lot of reasons to break it when crude oil was down $20 the other day and the cattle market held together pretty well. So to your point, I think that means we are waiting for cash trade. Boxes have slipped a little bit earlier in the week. They kind of came back a little bit here recently. I think if the cash continues to rally, it’s going to keep driving the live cattle into new highs. The lower corn trade probably helping
support the feeders a little bit.”

Concerned About Mexican Border Reopening
There have also been news reports circulating that USDA was getting close to reopening the Mexican border to feeder imports. So that may be holding back the market.

“And it looks like, you know, at least the start of a plan has been kind of announced. We’ve seen a couple of stories on that the last two or three weeks. And yet the feeder cattle market just kind of sits where it’s at and doesn’t break much. So again, I think that speaks to the underlying strength of what’s going on. Fundamentally, there’s just a lack of cattle. Now, if we get some confirmation, yes. It is open. There’s cattle now moving through. Yes, that could probably pull the feeder cattle market off the highs a little bit. But so far, I’ve been impressed that it’s really taken these new stories in stride.”

Winter Wheat Conditions Plunge as Drought Grips the Southern Plains

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:56:52 GMT

The 2026 winter wheat crop is off to a rocky start as dry conditions and harsh weather take a toll on production across the Southern Plains. According to USDA’s first Crop Progress report of the season, just 35% of the winter wheat crop is rated in good to excellent condition. It is a sharp decline from the 48% reported at this time last year.

While a third of the crop is rated fair, the situation is particularly dire in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska following a combination of challenging winter conditions and persistent dry weather. “Things are looking pretty rough, as we get into the heart of this early growing season for 2026,” says USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey.

(United States Department of Agriculture)

Texas Facing Extreme Moisture Deficits

In Texas, the situation is especially critical, with more than half of the winter wheat rated poor to very poor. Rippey says the state recently endured its fourth-driest stretch from September to February in the last 131 years.

Cody Pruser, a farmer near Winters, Texas, says the recent moisture hasn’t been enough to save much of the crop. “We got some rain recently, but it’s all too late, wheat’s burned up and it’s not going to make a whole lot, it’ll be below average in most places,” Pruser says. His area received about 1.5 inches of rain last week — the first significant moisture since December.

However, the timing was far from ideal. “We’ve missed the February to March rains. We’re getting them toward the end of March, the first of April, but it seems like it’s a little too late. We had decent moisture when we planted, but not much after that,” he explains.

Drought Conditions Broaden Across the Plains

Data from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor confirms the severity of the situation. More than 95% of the Southern Plains are experiencing some level of drought or abnormal dryness. In Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado, that figure reaches nearly 100%.

Despite the moisture deficit, Pruser remains cautiously optimistic he will harvest a better crop than last year, though he notes disease pressure is now a growing concern. Pruser says the biggest concern for his wheat this year is damage from High Plains virus on wheat. He predicts about 10% of his crop is impacted, which means quite a few of his acres will be unable to be harvested.

“It’s really the main concern we have with our wheat going on right now. [There is] no way to control it, nothing really to do about it,” he says.

Driest spots in the U.S. over the last 180 days.

(Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist)

Rippey’s Weather Outlook

Rippey says the subsoil moisture in Kansas means the state could see a turnaround from drought. The 1" to 2" of rain expected to hit the southern great plains and lower Midwest could make a big difference. “Maybe for some of the earlier wheat on the Southern Plains, we can still turn the corner and bring back some yield potential,” he says.

However, Rippey isn’t sure Western acres, or those in the central Great Plains will be able to come back from dry conditions. “Wheat’s already heading out in the far South. When you look at the numbers coming in out of Oklahoma and Texas, there’s only so much recovery at this point you’re going to have,” he says.

Grains Retreat with Crude Oil: So is the Rally Done if the Iran War is Over?

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 15:39:59 GMT

Grains were lower early Wedneday, with cattle two-sided and hogs higher.

Grains Retreat
Grains were sharply lower on Wednesday taking back most of the gains from Tuesday.

DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing says with the reports out of the way the grain market has gone back to trading Iran war headlines and following the crude oil market.

President Trump said on Tuesday the Iran war was nearing the end which sent the stock market sharply higher and crude oil lower and that trend is continuing on Wednesday.

Bosse says, “President Trump this morning is kind of talking about we might be out of Iran within two, three weeks. Iran mentioned something yesterday afternoon about they want to end the war, but on their terms. And I’m like, well, what are those terms? You know, so there’s still a lot of questions out there. But I think obviously President Trump doesn’t like to see high energy prices and the stock market lower. So I think he wants to end the war as soon as he can.”

Is the Grain Rally Over?
So if the war is nearly over is the grain rally also done?

Bosse says the U.S. can’t really leave Iran until the Strait of Hormuz is reopened. Iran wants a cease fire but that may not happen until the Strait is reopened.

Plus, he says it will take a while to get crude oil production back to normal due to all the damaged energy infrastructure in the Middle East.

“I mean, we had these huge records amounts of oil and supply beforehand. We were at $55 and really looked like there was no reason to rally. Stop that straight from flowing and then you damage infrastructure and the price is going to stay higher for a while. I think crude oil we could end the war tonight when Trump speaks maybe he’s going to declare victory and we’re leaving. That could mean lower crude oil futures but I see us at $85 and higher probably all summer,” he explains.

If Crude Oil Prices Stay Elevated Will Funds Stay in the Grains?
Funds have been buying grains the last month with the higher crude oil prices and fear of fertilizer and fuels shortages, plus rising inflation.

If crude oil prices stay elevated will that keep the funds defending that position in the grain markets?

Bosse says, “I think so especially with yesterday’s report. I don’t think there was anything in that to really scare them out of their long positions. Even if the war is over I think energy prices and transportation costs stay high and that should support grain prices.”

On top of that there is some fear about shortages of fertilizer, seed and other inputs that could Bosse says could rally the market yet.

Do Corn Acres Fall From Here?
USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report did show 1 million more acres of corn than expected but yet at 95.3 million acres, that is still 3.5 million less than last year.

With the concerns about fertilizer and other inputs will that trim acres further?

“Everyone’s figuring out that. The trade estimate was a little bit too low anyway because I think we were getting ahead of this problem with fertilizer prices spiking. We’ve got to remember when these surveys went out March 1 you know the majority of producers actually answered it that day and back then the war was just getting started. So, I don’t think we’re seeing any acre shift yet. This winter seed companies said everyone wanted to plant corn.”

Principal Acres Low
Bosse is also concerned that total principal crop acres at only 310 million were down 1.5 million acres from last year and corn and soybean acreage was right at 180.

“I think both of those end up north of that. So here we go again, like last year. I feel like the June report could be a bearish surprise with more acres. I just hope we find out those acres in June and not January this time.”

He says the only thing that could change that is weather and possible prevent plant.

“But to me, to be 310 million acres, principal crop acres, you’re going to have to prevent plant really high this year. And I don’t see that happening.”

Fear of Fertilier Shortages?

At the same time farmers are starting to report that they can’t get fertilizer, even the tons they booked ahead or paid for.

Bosse is hearing the same thing. “Elevators, co-ops may think they have fertilizer booked and coming, but we’re hearing some rumors that they’re not sure if they’re going to get it or not now. It’s funny, yeah, some of these boats in transit that had gone through the Strait before the war began were headed this way, right? Money talks and I wouldn’t doubt if some of those boats got shifted and moved around a little bit. So I’m a little concerned about that. You know, obviously to even book fertilizer prices now, nobody can really guarantee anything. A lot of it’s like, we’ll see what the price is when it gets here.”

Will Soybean Acreage go Up?
So if corn acreage comes down has the soybean market seen the lowest acreage in the March report especially if the U.S. and China strike a trade deal?

“Yeah, I think that soybean acres number will increase moving forward. Obviously, that meeting between Trump and Xi is going to happen here in a month, and especially if the war ends. So that’ll keep the funds wanting to be long. The soybean market will kind of keep this premium in it that I don’t know if we truly need unless they buy our old crop,” he adds.

And Bosse thinks the China deal could be a new crop story for soybeans but not old crop and even then he’s skeptical.

“Our government has promised that they’re going to buy 25 million metric ton moving forward. If they’re going to do that now is kind of the time they need to start doing that. So that’s kind of still what I’m looking for in this meeting is for some sort of large purchase but it’ll probably be new crop not old crop and i don’t really know if that’s bullish the soybean market anymore,” he states.

If the U.S. doesn’t get any of the 8 MMT of old crop business President Trump has declared then Bosse says ending stocks are too high.

“I think we’re going to have to raise our ending stock, lower the export demand, 100 million bushels, maybe 130 million bushels.”

USDA Report Response Rate
The farmer response rate on the USDA report was only 37% and Bosse says that is a problem.

“From what it looks like, it looks like it’s historic low. I see on social media some talk about, well, Farmers don’t like to report because all USDA
does is make the market go down. And I’d really encourage producers to fill those out. But I think I might know what the problem is. We farm as well. And we received our survey in the mail the exact same day it was due. Luckily, I’ve got a partner that’s on the ball. He opened it up and did the survey online. So we participated in it. But I wonder how many producers out there can be lazy like me and don’t open mail every day. If it’s two or three days later, they missed it. Maybe there’s some adjustments we can make from NASS and USDA to get these surveys out sooner so farmers have time to participate in it. But we want farmer participation in this, Michelle, because if we don’t, then it’s just private companies giving out their own numbers and surveys.”

Cattle Pushed by Technical Buying and Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures were two-sided early but made new highs for the move on Tuesday and filled the chart gap areas from last October. If those technical areas can be breached to market could make new highs.

Bosse says the market has been driven higher on technical buying and strong cash and the rally in the stock market didn’t hurt. Showlists are smaller again this week so tighter supplies are driving ideas of higher cash again.

But he fears higher gas prices could eventually hurt demand if they stick around all summer.

Reopening the Border to Mexican Feeder Imports?
The cattle market has also shook off reports over the weekend that USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins is considering a staggered reopening of the border to Mexican feeders starting in Arizona.

“So they’ll start in the West, I think even along the Arizona border, and they won’t open it to the East where really that’s where all the cattle flow across Texas border, of course, until later. But just the fact that within two, three weeks, it sounds like they’re going to make this announcement that this is happening. I would have thought we could have been down seven bucks or limit on news like that. But here we are rallying,” he says.

Soybeans, Wheat Rally as Acreage Below Expectations: Will Corn Acres Fall Further?

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 21:15:27 GMT

Grain and cattle futures ended higher Tuesday.

Grains Supported by Money Flow
Grain futures closed mostly higher Tuesday following the USDA reports.

Arlan Suderman with StoneX some of the support in the grains came from money flow with the rally in the crude oil market and continued higher fertilizer prices which have funds buying grains on ideas of shrinking crops globally.

“Money flow has been coming into the food and energy-based commodities on expectations that as long as the Strait Hormuz is closed to movement of energy and fertilizer through it, it risks higher prices, and not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even
food shortages. In fact, there’s quite a headline going across Wall Street on day-to-day now expecting global crisis of food here in the months ahead. The United Nations adding to that.”

Corn Acres Cut
USDA’s Prospective Plantings Report showed a 3.45 million acre cut in corn acres from 2025 to 95.4 million largely due to rotation and the higher input prices to plant corn. However, that was above trade expectations.

“There’s a rotation. It’s not a straight 50-50 every year. That was part of the reason we expected corn acres to be down. Perhaps that’s part of the reason that we saw Iowa, Wisconsin acres down, Nebraska acres down as part of that annual flip-flop of rotation. But overall... think the high fertilizer prices, the lower, the high input costs, I should say, overall, even before the war started weighing into this, in addition to expectations and now confirmed expectations that we would have a strong biofuel program for this next year that would increase demand for soybean oil.”

Still Suderman says it is likely that may be the highest acreage print as higher fertilizer prices could trim even more acres through the planting season.

“The tendency would be there. But it comes down to weather, though, as well. If the weather’s good for planting, we tend to increase corn acres. If it’s not, we tend to increase soybean acres. And I think that’ll still hold true. The core of the Midwest doesn’t like to change its rotations. Changes tend to happen in the Plains and in the South.”

Corn Production and Ending Stocks Projections
Using the 95.4 million acres and a 183 trend line yield for corn put production at 15.9 billion bu. says Suderman.

“That’s down about 1.1 billion from last year. Ending stocks dropped down to around 1.7 billion bushels, that’s a little over a 10% stocks to use ratio. That’s adequate to meet demand for the coming year. But if you drop that via weather or acreage or whatever might reduce that, then you start getting tight and the market gets uncomfortable. So we’ve taken away some of our margin for error in the coming year.”

Acreage Offset by Lower Quarterly Stocks on Corn?
The higher acreage may have been offset by lower than expected quarterly stocks for corn at 9.024 billion bu. That was up 11% or 877 million bu. from last year. However, that is below the nearly 1 billion bu. increase expected by the trade due to higher usage and disappearance.

Suderman says, “And particularly with the industry commonly believing USDA is too high on their feed and residual use number. Now, remember that’s feed and residual. Residual is just a plain number depending on how accurate they are with the production of the crop. If you assume the crop size is what USDA says in January, then they need to come down on that feed and residual number. Today’s number gives us our first concrete evidence that perhaps they overstated the size of this year’s crop. And I hear farmers across the Midwest saying, I told you so. They’ve been arguing that all along. We’ll see. It could be survey error as well.”

So he says we need to see another quarterly stocks report or two to see if this trend holds.

Soybean Acreage Up to 84.7 Million
USDA raised soybean acreage 3.485 million acres from 2025 to 84.7 billion bu. However, that was under the trade estimate.

The higher acreage came as farmers, especially in the Northwestern Corn Belt, shifted acres back to soybeans. Plus, higher fertilizer prices made the idea of more corn a challenge says.

“That was the area of the Midwest where we were most vulnerable without fertilizer in position before the war started.”

Farmers Optimistic About Better Soybean Demand?
Another factor is the demand picture for soybeans is better than a year ago, with increased RVOs and China export demand.

Suderman explains, “When you look at this crop, if we assume USDA’s 53 bushel yield from their outlook form and these acreage, that gives us a crop of about 4.43 billion bushels. That’s up about 170 million bushels from last year’s crop. You look at a strong biofuel program that we have for this coming year. Then it comes down to does China buy the 25 million metric tons of soybeans? Do they buy 12 million metric tons like they did this year? If they buy the 12 million metric tons, then this is adequate. But if they buy the 25 million metric tons that they committed to back in October, this is not enough acreage.”

How Many Additional Soybean Acres are Needed?
He thinks the market needs to buy another one to two million acres.

“Again, it comes down to what your confidence level is on China buying 25 million metric tons in the coming marketing year. I’m not comfortable with that number because of the price differential with Brazil. So it would have to be bought by the state grain buyers going into the reserves, and the reserves are full. I do think that they’ll buy soybeans,” he says.

Suderman does expect a China deal on May 14 but he doesn’t expect a significant amount of soybeans but instead there could be a significant purchase of corn.

“And the market’s not expecting that. If that happens, then corn would have to fight for acres once again as well.”

Wheat Acres Record Low
All wheat acres were a record low at 43.78 million with spring wheat acres down 570,000 acres to 9.42 million and the lowest levels since 1971.

This isn’t a surprise with the low profitability of wheat in the U.S. according to Suderman.

However, he says acreage is also declining in major producing countries around the globe due to the higher fertilizer and fuel prices. “Our office in Australia is now saying that Australia acreage should be down about 6% this coming year. Australia will be the next big test of the fertilizer issue and how yields hold up as they look to the planting season ahead. And how much fertilizer do they apply? Do they cut back?
Do they have availability of fertilizer? They’d be most directly impacted by the shutting of the Strait of Hormuz as far as fertilizer flow.”

The U.S. has plenty of surplus wheat with stocks at 1.3 billion bu. and up 64 million from last year.

“Does all this will mean that the rest of the world has to now come to the U.S. to get our surplus supplies and work those levels down over the coming year or two?” he asks.

Wheat on Verge of Technical Breakout
Wheat had a strong close on Tuesday and from a technical standpoint in on the verge of a breakout.

“Today would indicate that. I hate to say that on one day’s action. We need to see follow through tomorrow, but the money flow narrative fits. And so that would be the risk at this point, I would say, if we can confirm it tomorrow.”

Plus, many of the major wheat producing states had significantly lower crop ratings on Monday.

“We all know that that can change in a hurry if rains fall. Now, if you look at the forecast for rains for the next two weeks, there are good rains forecast for areas of the Central and Southern Plains where it’s been the driest. But the Western, the Southwestern Plains, that’s really 70% of the hard red winter wheat belt. It really remains pretty dry with very limited moisture. So if we get through the next two weeks and we don’t see
much rain, that could start really coming into threatening the size of this year’s crop at that point,” he adds.

Cotton Acreage Increases
Cotton acreage was a bit of a surprise coming in at 9.64 million acres. That was up above expectations and the National Cotton Council’s 9 million acre projection.

Suderman says he wasn’t as low as those projections because it’s really tough to change cotton acres and you have the equipment.

“And I think we’re getting acreage down now where it’s tough to fall much lower than where we are because the equipment really locks you into growing cotton. The poor profitability of cotton and the fertilizer situation is going to play into that as well and how that acreage might change,” he states.

However, he says the biggest increase came in Texas and farmers in the South have been planting for a while now. “So, March surveys should be closer to farmer intentions oncotton than it is in the other crops.”

Cattle Make New Highs for the Move
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move again on Tuesday.

Suderman says the market got help from the rally in the equity markets but is also getting a push from last week’s higher cash and some technical buying.

“I think part of it is this money flow issue on food scarcity issues, wanting to own food-based commodities and protein is on top of the pyramid right now under this administration.”

2026 Acreage Outlook: Soybeans and Cotton Rise While Corn and Wheat Face Notable Declines

Tue, 31 Mar 2026 15:18:04 GMT

Iran Conflict Trumps USDA Reports as Money Flows into Food and Energy

"Prices are a function of supply and demand. Supply and demand does matter, but they are modified by the flow of money and that's certainly been true and evident in this Iran war situation," said Arlan Suderman of StoneX during a conversation on Markets Now with Michelle Rook. He says money has been flowing into the food and energy-based commodities on the expectation that as long as the Strait of Hormuz is closed to the movement of energy and fertilizer, there's a risk for higher prices. "Not just higher prices for energy, but higher prices for food and even food shortages," said Suderman. "In fact, there's quite a headline going across Wall Street today now expecting a global crisis of food in the months ahead. So money coming into those food-based commodities slowed down a little bit, ahead of today's reports, but now that today's reports are behind us, it didn't really give any reason to change that narrative. It continues to provide a tailwind in which we trade these fundamentals.

Bigger Acreage Impact From High Fertilizer Prices Might Come in 2027, Not 2026

Rising fertilizer prices ahead of planting aren’t unprecedented — and history suggests the biggest impact might not be immediate. Seth Meyer points back to Russian invasion of Ukraine as a clear example. Fertilizer prices spiked in late February 2022, sparking concerns farmers might shift away from corn. “Yet, at the end of the day, it wasn’t significantly noticeable that we saw a reduction in corn because of it.” In other words, even with a sudden cost shock, most planting decisions were already too far along to meaningfully change. Krista Swanson says the same dynamic might be at play this year. While higher input costs could affect some acres, not all farmers are equally exposed — especially those who already applied fertilizer or locked in purchases. But the bigger story might be what comes next. “As we look ahead … we’re not that far from when we’re getting shipments in for fall applications for next year’s crop,” she explains. While only some farmers might feel the impact in 2026, Swanson emphasizes the effects could be much broader in 2027. “This could be something that impacts all farmers … definitely thinking about how that positions decisions for next year.” Meyer agrees, noting fertilizer markets were already tight before the latest geopolitical disruptions, with prices for key inputs such as MAP and DAP remaining elevated. “If you’re trying to put fertilizer into position for the fall, you’re going to have to pay the prices you’re observing today,” he says. The takeaway is this: While 2026 acreage might not shift dramatically, sustained high fertilizer costs could cast a longer shadow, shaping planting decisions more significantly in 2027.

Listen to AgriTalk for Report Analysis and Market Reaction

Brian Grete with Commstock Investments joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to dig into the March 31 USDA reports. Click here to listen to the conversation. "We saw in 2025, what the March intentions are to the final acreage [estimates] could be a vastly different number," Grete told AgriTalk host Chip Flory. "That may be the case again this year. We will have to see. There isn't a whole lot of incentive out there to just go out and wildly plant. We see that in the principal crop acres, 310 million being the smallest since 2020 and down 1.2% from the 10-year average. It's a matter of the total acreage mix as we move forward."

NCGA's Krista Swanson: Significant Share of Corn Acreage Likely Set

When asked if the corn acreage estimate of 95.3 million was surprising, NCGA Chief Economist Krista Swanson replied no. She notes the estimate is down about 3% from last year, yet still comes in above USDA’s February projection of 94 million acres. That suggests farmers, at least at the time of the survey, were planning to plant more corn than initially expected. Swanson acknowledges it's still possible for farmers to shift away from corn as fertilizer and fuel costs rise, partly driven by geopolitical tensions. “Some acres could shift, but a lot of decisions are already made — and, in many cases, inputs are already purchased or even applied,” she says. “Once fertilizer is in the ground it becomes a sunk cost, and it makes switching away from corn much less likely."

USDA Survey Adds Timing Data to Capture Farmer Sentiment Amid Rising Fertilizer Costs

The timing of USDA's Prospective Plantings report matters more than usual this year. Market conditions were shifting in real time as geopolitical tensions with Iran escalated during the survey window. Seth Meyer, director of FAPRI at the University of Missouri, says the fact USDA-NASS shared a breakdown of when responses were submitted adds transparency that helps analysts better interpret the data, grounding farmer sentiment in the reality of rapidly changing input costs. Early survey responses might reflect very different expectations than those submitted later.

Wheat Acres Continue to Dwindle as Drought Stress Mounts

The latest Drought Monitor puts the proportion of US winter wheat area under drought conditions at a new high of 57% for 2026. That is significantly above 37% at the same time last year. USDA continues to pare back wheat acres in its latest prospective plantings report. The agency survey puts the all wheat planted area for 2026 at an estimated 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this would be the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919.

Planters are Rolling in Iowa and Illinois

Soybean Markets Surge as Iowa and Illinois are Expected to Plant Less Corn in 2026

According to USDA, planted acreage intentions for corn are down in 37 of the 48 estimating states. Acreage decreases of 300,000 acres or more from last year are expected in Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin. If realized, the agency says, the area of corn planted in Nevada and Washington will be the largest on record, while Connecticut, Massachusetts, Pennsylvania and Rhode Island will be the smallest on record. USDA also estimates soybean growers intend to plant 84.7 million acres in 2026, up 4% from last year. Acreage increases from last year of 300,000 or more are expected in Arkansas, Iowa, Kansas, Mississippi, Nebraska, South Dakota and Wisconsin. Record high acreage is expected in Wisconsin. Soybean futures markets rose 17 to 19 cents midday following the release of the report, where USDA's survey showed fewer soybean acres than the trade expected, despite being higher than a year ago.

Matt Bennett: Bullish Soybeans and Wheat, Corn a Wash

On her Markets Now podcast, Michelle Rook chats with Matt Bennett, AgMarket.net, to break down USDA's Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports and what the numbers mean to farmers. Bennett thinks corn acreage might drop in the June report due in part to the spike in fertilizer costs since the Iran war started. "Whenever it costs $1,000 or more an acre to put crop in the ground, there's no doubt we'll need to see a pretty sharp reaction before too awful long if we're going to switch many of those acres around," Bennett says. When it comes to soybeans, he says rotation and lower input costs both play a role. The biggest shock is the record low all wheat acreage at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. Other spring wheat, at 9.42 million acres, was also down 570,000 acres and the lowest since 1971 due to disease and poor economics. "We've had very few opportunities to be able to step in and sell wheat at a profitable level," Bennett says. "It's just been problematic for a lot of growers to keep the same rotation they've had in the past. He was also surprised all cotton planted area for 2026 is estimated at 9.64 million acres, which is up 4% from last year. "Seeing cotton acres up, especially with the price action we've seen over the last year, is an absolute shock," he adds.

2025/26 Q2 Corn Demand Larger Than the Trade Expected

USDA Quarterly Grain Stocks: Corn and Soybean Supplies Surge Over 10% From 2025

USDA has also released its March Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers. At a glance: Corn stocks up 11% from March 2025 Soybean stocks up 10% All wheat stocks up 5% Corn stocks in all positions on March 1 totaled 9.02 billion bushels, up 11% from March 1, 2025. An average of traders ahead of the report expected 9.10 billion bushels. Of the total stocks, 5.43 billion bushels were stored on farms, up 21% from a year earlier. Off-farm stocks, at 3.59 billion bushels, are down 2% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 4.28 billion bushels, compared with 3.93 billion bushels during the same period last year. Soybeans stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 2.10 billion bushels, up 10% from March 1, 2025. Traders pegged soybean stocks at 2.06 on average ahead of the USDA’s report. Soybean stocks stored on farms are estimated at 900 million bushels, up 3% from a year ago. Off-farm stocks, at 1.20 billion bushels, are up 16% from last March. Indicated disappearance for the December 2025 to February 2026 quarter totaled 1.18 billion bushels, down 1% from the same period a year earlier. All wheat stored in all positions on March 1 totaled 1.30 billion bushels, up 5% from a year ago. The pre-report average of traders came in at 1.31 billion bushels. On-farm stocks are estimated at 298 million bushels, down 3% from last March. Off-farm stocks, at 1.00 billion bushels, are up 8% from a year ago. The December 2025 to February 2026 numbers indicate disappearance is 377 million bushels, 12% above the same period a year earlier. Durum wheat stocks in all positions on March 1, 2026 totaled 46.5 million bushels, up 21% from a year ago. On-farm stocks, at 30.2 million bushels, are up 40% from March 1, 2025. Off-farm stocks totaled 16.3 million bushels, down 4% from a year ago. From December 2025 to February 2026 disappearance totaled 14.9 million bushels, 17% below the same period a year earlier.

Markets React to Prospective Plantings Report

Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 1 to 2 cents lower, soybeans were steady to 2 cents higher, wheat was 13 to 17 cents higher and cotton was 60 to 70 points higher. As of 11:30 a.m. CT, corn is trading 2 cent to 3 cents higher, soybeans are 10 to 14 cents higher, winter wheat is 15 to 20 cents higher, spring wheat is 8 to 10 cents higher and cotton is around 25 points higher. Head over to Pro Farmer for reaction to USDA's March 31 Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports.

U.S. Corn and Soybean Planted Acreage Intentions Total 180M

2026 Prospective Plantings: Corn and Cotton Top Trade Guesses as Wheat Slumps to Historic Lows

USDA's Prospective Plantings report is out. Here's a glance: Corn planted acreage down 3% from 2025 Soybean acreage up 4% All wheat acreage down 3% All cotton acreage Up 4% Corn planted area for all purposes in 2026 is estimated at 95.3 million acres, down 3%, or 3.45 million acres, from last year. Compared with 2025, planted acreage is expected to be down or unchanged in 37 of the 48 estimating states. That’s higher than the trade’s pre-report average estimate of 94.36 million acres. Soybean planted area for 2026 is estimated at 84.7 million acres, up 4% from last year. Compared with last year, planted acreage is up or unchanged in 20 of the 29 estimating states. Heading into the report, trade analysts had an average estimate of 85.54 million acres. The all wheat planted area for 2026 is estimated at 43.8 million acres, down 3% from 2025. If realized, this represents the lowest all wheat planted area since records began in 1919. Winter Wheat: 32.4 million acres, down 2% from last year Hard Red: 23.1 million acres Soft Red Winter: 5.79 million acres White Winter: 3.54 million acres Spring Wheat: 9.43 million acres, down 6% from 2025 Hard Red Spring: 8.78 million acres Durum: 1.95 million acres, down 11% from last year Trade analysts expected the all wheat number to be lower with an average estimate of 44.78 million acres. Cotton acreage is bouncing back just a little in 2026. USDA estimates the all cotton planted area for 2026 is 9.64 million acres, up 4% from last year. An average of surveyed traders put the acreage number at 9.22 million for 2026. The March 31 estimate is also above USDA February Outlook estimate of 9.4 million acres.

Watch Live As NASS Releases Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks Numbers

Watch live as the National Agricultural Statistics Service announces Prospective Plantings and Grain Stocks numbers.

Time Will Tell How Acreage and Stocks Shake Out

Quarterly Stocks: Trade Eyes Massive Corn and Soy Inventory Build

USDA will also release the Quarterly Grain Stocks numbers today. The trade expects 9.1 billion bushels of corn, which is up nearly 1 billion bushels from last year but includes an increase of 775 million bushels on feed and residual. “I don't believe the feeding demand has been as great as maybe what USDA is expecting,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company. “Our estimate on feed and residual for the crop year is down about 250 million bushels. I then end up with the U.S. corn ending stocks around 2.4 billion bushels.” Quarterly stocks on soybeans are estimated at 2.06 billion bushels, up 150 million bushels from last year, with wheat stocks at 1.3 billion, up just 60 million.

Mike North: Hoping for Optimism to Move Markets Higher

USDA's March Prospective Plantings Report tends to be "explosive" in terms of market reaction, according to Ever.Ag's Mike North.

What You Need to Know: USDA's March 2026 Crop Production and WASDE Numbers

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 15:05:04 GMT

Markets Close: Corn and Wheat Fall While Soybeans Hold

Michelle Rook wraps up the day and where the markets landed with Rich Nelson, Allendale Inc.

Most Notable From Today's Numbers: World Corn Ending Stocks

The March WASDE report is typically a bit of a "snoozer" in terms of updates from USDA, says Lane Akre with Pro Farmer. This year was no exception, though sometimes insight can be gleaned from a lack of change. Perhaps most notable in today’s reports was the world ending stocks figure for corn coming in above expectations. USDA pegged world corn stocks at 292.75 MMT for 2025-26, above expectations of 289.19 MMT and last month at 288.98 MMT. That change can largely be attributed to increased production, though world use is expected to decline as well outside of feed, which is an interesting assumption given the war in Iran. USDA increased Brazilian corn production by 1 MMT to 132 MMT and Ukrainian production by 1.7 MMT to 30.7 MMT. Both saw similar increases to ending stocks. USDA remains rather pessimistic over Brazilian production as several private forecasters are forecasting a crop toward 140 MMT. Conab currently pegs the crop at 138 MMT. USDA historically is not this low on production and typically toward the top end of estimates rather than the bottom. Considering the disruption to world energy flows, the cut to world use outside of feed (a large chunk of which is ethanol) is puzzling. Vegetable oil prices have surged amid anticipation of higher use to make of for lower crude, yet corn use was cut. Click here to read more of Akre's takeaways on Pro Farmer.

Listen Now on AgriTalk: Report Reaction From Bill Lapp

Bill Lapp with Advanced Economic Solutions joins Chip Flory on AgriTalk to share his take on the March Crop Production and WASDE numbers. Tap here to listen live.

Report Analysis With Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net

Supply and Demand Forecast for U.S. Wheat and Corn

Market Reaction to March WASDE Numbers

Stay on top of the markets in real time on AgWeb's markets page. Ahead of the report, corn futures were trading 5 to 7 cents lower, soybeans were 4 to 7 cents higher, wheat futures were 12 to 15 cents lower and cotton was mostly 60 to 80 points higher. Following the report release, there was little market reaction.

No Change in U.S. Ending Stocks

By the Numbers: March WASDE

As anticipated, there are very few changes to the March WASDE. According to Bill Watts with Pro Farmer, the biggest standout might be the bump in global corn ending stocks to 292.75 million metric tons from 288.98 MMT in February, reflecting bigger crops in Brazil and Ukraine. Corn: There are no changes for U.S. corn outlook compared with the February WASDE. The season-average corn price is unchanged at $4.10 per bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2025/26 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1.593 billion based on increases for Ukraine and Brazil, which are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Trade changes include higher corn exports for India. Brazil’s exports for the marketing year ending February 2026 are higher, while Argentina's exports are reduced. Global corn ending stocks are up 3.8 million to 292.8 million tons, reflecting increases for Brazil, Ukraine and India that are partly offset by a decline for Argentina. Soybeans: U.S. 2025/26 soybean supply and use projections include increased imports and crush and unchanged ending stocks. Soybean imports are increased 5 million bushels. Crush is raised 5 million bushels, driven by higher soybean meal domestic use. Soybean oil domestic use is marginally lower with lower soybean oil for biofuel use mostly offset by higher food, feed and other industrial use. Soybean oil for biofuel use is lowered 800 million pounds to 14 billion and soybean oil ending stocks are revised slightly higher. U.S. soybean ending stocks are unchanged at 350 million bushels. The season-average soybean price is projected unchanged at $10.20 per bushel. The soybean meal price is raised $5 to $300 per short ton. The soybean oil price is projected at 55 cents per pound, up 2 cents. Global soybean production is reduced on lower production in Argentina (down 0.5 million tons to 48 million) and Ukraine (reduced 0.5 million tons to 5.5 million). Global soybean supply and use forecasts include lower production, exports, crush and ending stocks. Soybean exports are reduced for Ukraine and imports are lowered for India, Iran and Turkey. Crush is reduced for Iran and largely offset by higher U.S. crush. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 0.2 million tons mainly on lower stocks for India and Ukraine Wheat: There are no changes for the 2025/26 U.S. wheat supply and use categories. The season-average farm price is up 5 cents per bushel to $4.95. The 2025/26 global outlook projects larger supplies and consumption but reduces trade and ending stocks. Supplies increase by 0.2 million tons to 1,101.8 million, primarily on increased output for Ukraine and Kazakhstan that is partly offset by lower production in Australia. Australian production is down by 1 million tons, with harvest nearly complete, to 36 million – its third highest on record. Global consumption is raised 0.7 million tons to a record 824.8 million, primarily on higher feed and residual use for the European Union. World trade is up 0.2 million tons to 222.2 million, with larger exports for Argentina and Kazakhstan that are mostly offset by lower forecasts for the European Union, Russia and Ukraine. Projected 2025/26 global ending stocks are reduced 0.6 million tons to 277 million but remain at a five-year high. For a break down of global production highlights, visit Pro Farmer's report reaction.

Dan Basse Shares a Boots-On-the Ground Report from Brazil

What to Expect From USDA On Corn, Soybeans and Wheat

The report, due at 11 a.m. CDT, isn’t expected to post any significant shifts in corn, soybean or wheat ending stocks for the current marketing year. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for corn, wheat and soybean ending stocks for the 2025-26 marketing year to move by 5 million bushels or less. It will be worth watching to see if USDA tweaks its forecast for U.S. soybean exports after President Donald Trump in early February said China was considering buying an additional 8 million metric tons of the crop after completing an earlier pledge to purchases 12 million metric tons. In its February WASDE, USDA acknowledged China was “reported to be considering buying more U.S. soybeans,” but played down the impact purchases would have on the balance sheet. Corn exports continue to run well ahead of their expected pace, but USDA might be reluctant to further boost what is already a record forecast, possibly opting to wait another month or two. USDA’s take on South American production isn’t likely to see a big shift. In February, USDA raised its estimate of Brazil’s soybean crop to a record 180 million metric tons, up from 178 million metric tons in January. Argentina was left unchanged at 48.5 million metric tons. Private forecasters have since issued projections above and below USDA’s Brazil forecast as harvest progresses in northern Mato Grosso. Harvest in Brazil is under way and yield reports are generally strong, though significant quality concerns were reported in northern Mato Grosso. Analysts surveyed by Bloomberg, on average, look for USDA to trim its Brazil forecast by 600,000 metric tons to 179.4 million metric tons and take 200,000 metric tons off the Argentina estimate to 48.3 million metric tons. Corn estimates are also unlikely to see a major shift. USDA pegged Brazil’s crop at 131 million metric tons in February and Argentina at 53 million metric tons. Analysts expect USDA to raise its Brazilian corn estimate by 1 million metric tons to 132 million metric tons, while shaving 100,000 metric tons off Argentina’s crop to 52.9 million metric tons. For more on what to expect in the February WASDE report, head on over to Pro Farmer.

NASS Concerned Criticism of USDA Reports Could Keep Farmers From Completing March Acreage Survey

Fri, 06 Mar 2026 16:14:26 GMT

As acreage surveys begin arriving in farm mailboxes across rural America, skepticism about USDA production numbers is still echoing through coffee shops, grain elevators and market commentary. Farmers, economists and segments of the grain trade have openly questioned recent estimates, particularly after sharp market reactions to the January report and a large uptick in USDA’s corn acreage estimates in 2025.

For the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), that skepticism presents a deeper concern than short-term volatility. If doubts about accuracy discourage participation in farmer surveys, it could weaken the very foundation of the reports critics are scrutinizing.

Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board at NASS, says as the 2026 acreage survey collection period ramps up, farmer participation is more important than ever, but he’s concerned fewer farmers may participate, especially if they’re frustrated.

Mounting Doubts After Big Acreage Revisions

According to reporting from Reuters , USDA, which has been long viewed as the global gold standard for crop data, is facing mounting doubts about the reliability of its estimates. The scrutiny intensified after deep staff losses within the department and a sharp upward revision in harvested corn acreage. That’s caused confidence in USDA reporting to erode.

Farmers, traders and food manufacturers worldwide rely on monthly USDA reports on production, supplies and demand to anticipate price direction and inventory levels. When those numbers shift significantly, the ripple effects move quickly through commodity markets.

At issue is how dramatically USDA’s corn acreage estimate evolved over the past season.

In June, USDA estimated farmers planted 95.2 million acres of corn, up 5% from the prior year. At the time, plantings were nearly complete, which gave many in the trade confidence in the estimate. But by August, USDA raised its planted acreage estimate by more than 2%, contributing to a 3% drop in corn prices. Another upward revision followed in September.

By January, USDA estimated corn plantings at 98.8 million acres, 3.8% higher than its initial June estimate. For some farmers and analysts, the size of that swing was unsettling.

“Given the turmoil and turnover at the USDA at the time, there were already concerns about data quality, with the miss from June to final doing everything to reinforce those fears,” Angie Setzer, partner at Consus Ag Consulting, told Reuters. “A swing of this size from June to final plantings has never happened before, making many feel it is more difficult to adequately manage risk.”

According to Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , released at Top Producer Summit , the majority of economists, producers and retailers say their confidence in USDA reports has declined compared to past years.

68% of economists say they are less confident in USDA reports.
73% of producers say their confidence has declined.
78% of retailers report waning trust.

Some producers told Reuters they did not understand why USDA could not produce a more accurate assessment in June, especially with planting largely complete.

That context is now shaping how farmers view the acreage survey currently underway.

How the Acreage and Harvested Numbers Evolved

Honig says it’s important to understand how USDA constructs those estimates.

USDA based its June acreage estimate on surveys of nearly 68,000 farmers. Those responses were used to estimate planted acres and, initially, harvested acres. Farmers were surveyed again in December, and updated harvested acreage results were incorporated into the January report.

“In January, it made sense to increase the number of acres harvested for grain because poor weather had not hindered farmers,” Honig explains. “Plantings were larger than previous years, and the number of acres harvested for silage stays relatively unchanged annually.”

Silage acres tend to remain fairly stable from year to year. If total plantings rise significantly and weather does not prevent harvest, the share of acres harvested for grain can logically increase as well.

Still, the magnitude of the revision has prompted USDA to take a closer look.

As part of its review, Honig says USDA and NASS will confirm its procedures functioned as intended. But contrary to some media reports, USDA NASS does a review every year.

“We actually always reevaluate,” Honig says. “We do hundreds of surveys a year, and every time we finish a process, we look back and say, ‘All right, is there anything that first off went wrong? Is there anything that didn’t go the way it was supposed to?’ You always want to make sure you rule that out.”

The review process, he emphasizes, is not reactionary — it is routine. But unusual outcomes, like historically large acreage revisions, provide an opportunity to refine methodology.

“When you plant the largest number of acres in a long, long time, it changes the dynamics of how your harvested and planted relationship works,” Honig says. “We’re going to take a hard look at that and say, ‘Okay, do we need to do something a little bit different when we get these extremely large planted acreage numbers, whether it’s corn, soybeans or any other crop, moving forward?’”

Acreage Survey Collection Is Already Underway

All of that makes the current acreage survey especially significant. USDA’s March acreage survey, which will then be turned into USDA’s Prospective Plantings report released at the end of March, is already hitting mailboxes.

“We’re basically in the middle of it now,” Honig says. “What we’re looking at right now is trying to capture farmers’ planting intentions.”

Surveys have already been in farmers’ mailboxes for about a week. As February closes, NASS is increasing follow-up efforts by phone and through on-farm visits.

“Now’s when we’re really going to start doing some follow-up via the phone, maybe send some folks out to the farms where they’re at and capture some information that way,” Honig says. “We’ll be doing that for probably the next three weeks. It’s a fairly long window because we’re looking at 60,000 to 70,000 farmers we’re trying to get a hold of.”

While private analysts are already publishing acreage guesses based on price ratios and profitability projections, Honig stresses USDA’s March Prospective Plantings report will be the first farmer-reported indication of actual intent.

“Obviously there are some numbers floating around out there already,” he says. “But they’re largely based on what it seems like economics might suggest are going to happen. So this is really the first opportunity to hear from the farmers themselves, ‘What are you actually planning to do this season?’”

Participation: The Critical Variable

Honig acknowledges response rates have grown more challenging in recent years.

“I don’t think it’s any secret that getting farmers to respond has been a little bit more challenging recently,” he says. “And any time you’ve got a little bit of controversy surrounding some numbers, that raises the concern level a little.”

That’s where his concern lies. If skepticism over prior revisions leads to lower participation, the quality of future estimates could suffer.

“Honestly, I would say this is the time to double down,” Honig says. “Because if there’s concerns about how accurate the numbers are, there’s several things we can do to always make things better, but the biggest thing is if we can get more and better information coming in the door. There’s no question that’s going to make a better product going out the door at the end of March.”

Lessons from the 2025 Crop Season: Bigger Acres, Resilient Yields

As the 2025 growing season wrapped up, Hong says it was a year full of lessons, from managing historically large acreage to understanding how modern genetics are changing the resilience of crops.

Honig points to the challenges and insights of planting record acreage in 2025 and the impact that can have on an overall yield, which proved to be a record in 2025.

“When you plant the largest number of acres in a long, long time, it changes the dynamics of how your harvested and planted relationship works. We’re going to take a hard look at that and say, ‘Do we need to do something a little bit different when we get these extremely large planted acres, whether it’s corn, soybeans or any other crop moving forward.’ That’s a marker we can leverage to make sure we do an even better job in the future,” Honig says.

Looking across the Corn Belt, the analyst highlights high yields weren’t limited to traditional “I states.”

“We definitely saw some problems through the heart of the Corn Belt, but it is not all about the I-states. Tremendous yields north and south more than made up for some of those challenges,” he says.

He also notes the role of modern crop genetics in mitigating stress.

“With these advances, some problems don’t seem to have quite the impact they used to because the crop is much more resilient than it was in past years, especially from a drought perspective. Some of the dry conditions we saw in 2025 — if that had happened 10 years ago, it would have been a completely different story. We need to focus on what today’s genetics are telling us, not what a similar situation 10, 15 or 20 years ago would have meant.”

A Defining Moment for Trust in the Data

The current acreage survey arrives at a pivotal moment. Global grain markets are tightly linked, price volatility remains elevated and confidence in official data is being publicly debated.

USDA’s numbers influence everything from local basis levels to export competitiveness and crop insurance guarantees. But those numbers begin with farmer-reported data. For Honig, the message is straightforward.

If farmers want the reports to reflect what is happening in their fields and communities, participation is the most direct way to ensure it.

In a season defined by scrutiny, the strength of USDA’s next set of estimates may hinge less on methodology debates and more on how many producers choose to answer the survey now sitting in their mailboxes.

Confidence in USDA Reports Erodes as USDA Launches Internal Review

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 19:48:17 GMT

Confidence in USDA reporting is slipping across the agricultural economy, and it’s not just talk in the countryside.

According to Farm Journal’s January Ag Economists’ Monthly Monitor , released at Top Producer Summit , the majority of economists, producers and retailers say their confidence in USDA reports has declined compared to past years.

68% of economists say they are less confident in USDA reports.
73% of producers say their confidence has declined.
78% of retailers report waning trust.

The findings framed a candid conversation on stage at Top Producer Summit featuring Seth Meyer, director of the Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute (FAPRI) at the University of Missouri; Grant Gardner of the University of Kentucky; and Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk.

At the center of the discussion: A June acreage “miss” and subsequent revisions left many in the industry questioning how such large shifts could occur in a short window and whether the data driving markets can be trusted.

The June Acreage Shock

Flory points to a key frustration voiced by producers: How could USDA show such a drastic acreage change in a short amount of time?

Meyer, former USDA chief economist, acknowledges the issue.

“Quite honestly, I think this is a problem,” he says. “If you’ve lost confidence, we have to ask why.”
He emphasizes, however, the issue is not political interference or hidden agendas in USDA or the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS ).

“It is not that these people have a political agenda,” Meyer says. “They want to do a good job. I hated being wrong.”

Instead, he pointed to structural challenges, including survey fatigue among producers and confusion about how acreage numbers are constructed and revised.

The June planted acreage miss triggered a chain reaction. Planted acreage revisions led to harvested acreage revisions. Add in larger September carryout stocks, and the cumulative effect was a bigger crop supply than the market anticipated.

Several adjustments in a row, some related, some not, all moved in the same direction.

“That September acreage adjustment gave me a better understanding of how misunderstood the process is by producers,” Meyer says. “You certify planted acres, not harvested acres. Harvested acres is where the big change occurred.”

Why Not Just Use FSA Data?

A frequent question from producers: If acreage is certified with the Farm Service Agency (FSA), why doesn’t USDA simply use those numbers?

Meyer says they do use FSA numbers and increasingly earlier in the process than in the past.

Four years ago, FSA-certified acreage data wasn’t fully incorporated until the October report. Today, USDA has moved that integration forward into August, releasing certified data alongside other reports to improve transparency and eliminate timing confusion.

If anything, Meyer argues, FSA data is being used better now than it was in the past.

He also notes private industry analysis of FSA data pushed USDA toward earlier use, increasing transparency in the process.

Can Satellites Replace Farmer Surveys?

With fewer farmers responding to surveys, another question surfaced: Why not rely more heavily on satellite imagery?

Meyer says Earth observation tools have improved, but they are not yet a substitute for field-level survey data.
Satellite tools can get close. But he warned there is a threshold effect: Once survey quality drops below a certain point, the value of the report doesn’t slowly decline, it collapses.

“You’ve got to ground-truth it,” Gardner adds. “Even if satellite data improves, you still need to go look.”

Meyer says he would want to see satellite systems consistently match field survey results for years before replacing traditional methods.

Workforce Reductions Come Into Play

Since January 2025, USDA’s workforce has been cut by more than 20,000 staff members, which former acting deputy undersecretary Spiro Stefanou says hampered FSA from processing planting data last summer and feeding it to NASS.

Meyer admits that experience can’t be replaced.

“I would say the cushion we have in terms of knowledge base is largely gone,” he says. “We wouldn’t want to go through another period of losses where I would have lost more people in those units who did the WASDE report.”

Internal Review: Will It Restore Confidence?

Following the January WASDE report, in which USDA raised harvested corn acres by 1.3 million for a record 4.5-million-acre increase since July, the agency launched an internal review of its data collection processes. Will that help?

Gardner says economists’ concerns often focus less on methodology and more on staffing and budget cuts.
“From the economist perspective, it wasn’t as much, ‘Is this the best data we have?’” Gardner explains. “It was, ‘Do we have the best people in place?’”

From the producer perspective, however, the frustration is different, involving surprise adjustments and a perception that official reports don’t match what’s happening at the farm gate.

Meyer believes the review might restore some confidence, but he doesn’t expect sweeping findings.

“It’s 100% the best data out there,” he says. “Follow it, because you’re not getting anything better.”

Still, he acknowledges the partnership between USDA and producers must be strengthened.

“This is an important partnership,” Meyer says. “USDA has to prove its value proposition to producers. They have to prove this is good for producers, and that it creates symmetry of information in the marketplace.”

Confidence Tested, Not Broken

While trust in USDA data might be eroding, panelists stopped short of declaring the system broken. The message from the stage was clear: The data remains the best available, but maintaining its credibility will require transparency, engagement and renewed participation from producers themselves.

Grains Crash Again on Spillover From Outside Markets, Weather

Tue, 03 Feb 2026 00:03:31 GMT

Grain markets ended lower on Monday with livestock higher.

Grains Caught up in Money Flow....Again
Grain markets ended lower again on Monday seeing technical selling pressure tied to the risk off day in the outside markets. Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net says it was a money flow day as grains were influenced by the selloff in crude oil and the precious metal markets, plus the higher dollar. “As soon as the dollar turned, seemed like some of the interest in owning commodities backed off somewhat. Obviously, there’s other things at play, but most commodities had a really tough day on Friday, and none of them look very good today either.”

Crude Oil Falls on Iran Talks
Crude oil fell sharply on Monday after Iran said it hopes diplomatic efforts to avert a war with the U.S. will bear fruit within days, according to the Islamic Republic’s foreign ministry and as reported by Bloomberg . Multiple countries in the Middle East have acted as intermediaries to exchange messages with the U.S., and Iran’s priority in talks is sanctions relief. Oil prices fell sharply in early trading today, partly because of the heightened diplomatic maneuvers. However, Bennett says that also firmed up the dollar.

Negative Reaction to New Fed Chair
The markets have also seen a negative reaction to President Trump’s FOMC chair nominee as Kevin Warsh is seen as more hawkish and could be slow to lower interest rates.

Bennett says, “Warsh was not necessarily someone that people thought Trump would pick because he’s more of a hawkish tone. And so he was not the number one pick. And then right at the end, hey, he gained odds that he was going to actually be picked. People knew there was something in the works. That turned the market, quite frankly. And so overall, people don’t feel like it’s going to be near as much as an inflationary type situation is what they were thinking before. He’s totally against quantitative easing.”

When Will the Selling Stop?
The question now is will outside markets see a bigger break or when will cooler heads prevail? Bennett says the market was betting on more interest rate cuts in 2026 and at a faster rate. “And so that’s kind of turned the mentality here,” he adds. However, he says there are fundamental and geopolitical reasons for the rally in metals and the devaluation of the dollar. “There’s a lot of unrest in the world. The flight to safety, lack of confidence in fiat currencies, those are real. And I don’t know that those are going to go away anytime soon, you know, with a little bit of war, a fear, if you will, in the Middle East, you know, I mean, there’s a lot going on, but I don’t think it’s going to go away right away,” he explains.

Will Grains Markets Eventually Benefit?
Right now Bennett says the funds are not buying grains yet even though they are an incredible value. “The thing is, is that a lot of times you see that flight to safety, ags can participate at times, but unfortunately, we just haven’t given these people or the funds, whoever you might want to think of why they would buy ags. There’s just nothing to get you excited,” he adds.

What is the Catalyst
So what is the catalyst that finally bring managed money into the grains and produced a rally? Bennett says right now weather is the only hope, because at least for corn even record demand has not been enough to spark a rally.

South American Weather Weighs on Corn and Soybeans
The corn and soybean markets, according to Bennett, were also removing risk premium with better changes for rain in the extended forecast for dry areas of Argentina. “So Argentina’s been hot and dry. You know, the good to excellent ratings on the corn in the last month have dropped some 30 percent. I mean, you’re talking a pretty big shift. Obviously, they’re excessively dry. They need rainfall and they need it fairly soon. But the forecast is showing they’re going to turn off wet next week. And it’s going to be right in the areas, particularly southern Argentina has been dry forever.” he details.

Wheat Removes Weather Premium
Winter wheat futures were also removing weather premium with reports that last week’s bitterly cold temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere did not hurt the wheat crop in the U.S. or Ukraine. “The winter kill, you know, people were talking with as cold as what it was with the lack of snow cover out west, you know, and that’s a concern. I know people out there that are still concerned about it. I certainly hope they get through that okay. Ukraine. People are talking about the same thing in Ukraine,” he says. Unfortunately, weather is the only hope for the wheat market sustaining a rally with the abundant supply.

Grains Hit Resistance, Now Will The Markets Retest Recent Lows?
Last Friday corn, soybeans and wheat also hit chart resistance areas they were unable to breach so the markets are all seeing profit taking and technical selling. So with the grain markets all testing key support areas will those be able to hold or will the grain markets go all the way back to test the lower end of the trading ranges made after the bearish January WASDE? Bennett says, “I certainly think it’s a possibility at the same time. sometimes we get a little
bit of strength in here in February you know you’re set in February crop insurance prices this just there’s really no need to buy acres there’s no need for an acreage battle or an acreage war the grower is sitting on a ton of corn. He also fears that if futures prices rally the basis will just soften.

Cattle Make New Highs For the Move
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move in reaction to last week’s higher cash and the bullish USDA Cattle Inventory report. It confirmed the smallest herd in 75 years and very few signs of expansion. Bennett says it shouldn’t have been a surprise. “We know it’s going to take time to rebuild a cattle herd. But is that going to happen? I don’t know. I mean, that’s a tough game. Someone who’s selling heifers, you know, that’s still able to get $2 ,500 and $3,000 and let someone else calve her out and feed her that’s what they want to do.” USDA Monday reported last week’s average cash cattle trade at $239.44. That’s up a solid $4.74 from the week prior’s average cash trade at $234.70.

Retest Record Highs?
Still Bennett isn’t sure if the cattle market will retest the all-time highs hit in October. “I think that you’re going to need a catalyst to really push it. You took fats, you know, significantly lower down $50, $60. You took feeders down over $80 in the case of feeders, you’re $14 off the highs. That was a massive recovery, a recovery that a lot of people are darn sure glad to see. And so my personal opinion is if you’re a fund trader, if you’re someone who was long cattle whenever a post on social media handed you your rear end, now, yeah, granted, you had big profit margins that probably just paired those back. What is your appetite for wanting to push this thing to new all -time highs? Because everybody knows this is a bullish situation. I think it’s going to be hard to get to new highs,” he says.

How Bullish is the Cattle Inventory Report for the Cattle Market?

Mon, 02 Feb 2026 10:30:15 GMT

USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report confirmed the smallest herd in 75 years.
This comes as the cattle industry is still healing from consecutive years of drought, but the surprise is that record high cattle prices aren’t enticing producers to rebuild.
The lack of herd rebuilding has likely extended the historically tight cattle numbers out an additional year.Which means these near to record cattle prices could linger into 2028.

Cattle Inventory Smallest Since 1951
USDA’s semi-annual cattle inventory report confirmed the U.S. cattle herd remains historically small, showing inventory at 86.2 million head, down 317,000 head from last year.

Patrick Linnell, Director of Market Research, CattleFax says: “The total cattle numbers came in down 0 .4 % from year ago, which does take total cattle numbers in the US down to the lowest level that it’s been since 1951. So it does just continue to decline cyclically. and i think that’s the big picture message of this report is that that that expansion while there was some signs of it within this report by and large expansion remains elusive at this point.”

Smaller Beef Cow Herd a Surprise
He says the biggest surprise in the report was a decline in beef cow numbers as the herd is now the smallest since 1961. (Graphic)
Linnell says, “As you looked at just how tight beef cow slaughter was this past year, us and other groups had expected that we would actually see an increase in the beef cow herd. Small, but an increase nonetheless. But however, that’s not what this report showed. It still showed beef cows coming in about 1 % smaller, down about 280 ,000 head.”

Factors Slowing Rebuilding
Linnell attributes the slow expansion to drought, age, lack of labor, higher interest rates, high market risk and financial rebuilding.
“You have a lot of producers who are opting to take the to take today’s paycheck instead of holding back that heifer and counting on returns for her in the future.”

Calf Crop Smallest Since 1941
The calf crop was also down 1.6% at 32.9 million head. The calf crop is the smallest since 1941 indicating the feeder cattle supply will remain tight for a while.”

Linnell says, “The calf crop did come in down about half a million head from year ago, the 2025 calf crop, that is. At the same time, feeder cattle and calf supplies, they continued their decline. 4:02 No surprise there, as you just think about, the multiple years, the continued declines in the calf crop, a slight uptick and heifer retention, and the continued lack of Mexican feeder cattle imports.”

Market Impact
So the cattle cycle isn’t even into the tightest numbers yet.So how long will cattle prices remain strong?
Linnell says, “Fewer potential breeding females coming into 2026 suggests that the calf crop is probably going to be steady to maybe a tick smaller again in 2026 and as you think about the tail of that you know it does suggest that that maybe into the tail of 27 but realistically it’s 2028 before you start seeing an increase in domestic and domestic fed cattle slaughter and domestic fed cattle supplies.”

The wild card is when the border reopens to Mexican cattle.But Linnell is optimistic the cattle market could retest the 2025 highs and stay strong another two to three years.

U.S. Cattle Inventory Hits 75-Year Low at 86.2 Million Head

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:08:09 GMT

As of Jan. 1, 2026, the U.S. beef cattle herd stands at 86.2 million head, continuing a downward trend. Despite a year of strong prices, USDA’s annual Cattle Inventory Report released Friday shows the U.S. cattle inventory shrank another 0.35% and now sits at its smallest size in 75 years.

“I would say the story continues,” summarizes Derrell Peel, extension livestock marketing specialist from Oklahoma State University. “I mean, it really doesn’t change the pattern that we’ve been in for the last three years now.”

Quick Report Stats:

Total Cattle and Calves Inventory: 86.2 million head (Down 0.35%)
Beef Cow Herd: 27.6 million head (Down 1%)
2025 Calf Crop: 32.9 million head (Smallest since 1941)
Beef Replacement Heifers: 4.71 million head (Up 1%)

Patrick Linnell, CattleFax director of market research, calls the report bullish.

“I think the big picture message of this report is expansion, while there was some signs of it within this report, by and large expansion remains elusive at this point,” he says.

What Are the Big Takeaways from the USDA Report?

According to Peel, the data highlights two critical areas:

1. Shrinking Cow Herd: The beef cow inventory fell 1% to 27.6 million head.
“The industry technically got a little smaller in 2025,” Peel says.

Linnell adds, “As you looked at just how tight beef cow slaughter was this past year, us and other groups had expected we would actually see an increase in the beef cow herd. Small, but an increase nonetheless. However, that’s not what this report showed.”

2. Heifer Retention Signs: Beef replacement heifers rose 1% to 4.71 million.
“There was a slight uptick in beef replacement heifers, not enough to amount to any growth in 2026, or probably even in 2027, but maybe it’s the beginnings [of a rebuild].”

John Nalivka, Sterling Marketing Inc. president, says the report indicates while replacement heifers was up 1% and those expected to calve were also up 1% from 2024 or 17% of the beef cow herd.

“From 2015 to 2018 when producers began aggressively building herds, the average number of heifers that were identified as replacements on the Jan. 1 inventory was 6.2 million or an average heifer retention rate of 21%,” he explains.

Nalivka says heifer slaughter during 2025, at 9.5 million, was down 7% from the prior year but still represented 52% of the heifers weighing more than 500 lb. on Jan. 1, 2025. In 2024, the industry slaughtered 56% of the January 1 heifers weighing more than 500 lb.

“When the industry was retaining heifers to build herds, the percentage of heifers weighing over 500 lb. that were slaughtered ranged from 39% to 49%,” he adds.

Why is the 2025 Calf Crop Significant?

The calf crop estimate was reduced to 32.9 million head — a 2% drop from 2024. This marks the smallest U.S. calf crop since 1941. This scarcity will be the primary driver for market dynamics in the coming years.

The calf crop in 1941 was approximately 31.8 million head. While the industry saw a significant liquidation in 2014, the calf crop that year only dropped to roughly 33.5 million. This means the current contraction has pushed production levels back more than 80 years.

Outlook: What Will Cattle and Beef Prices Do in 2026?

Peel predicts the small calf crop and tightening feeder supplies will push prices even higher.

“We’ve got record-high prices, and we’re going to see them push even higher for cattle and beef,” Peel says.

He reminds producers it’s important to keep in mind that it’s not just about supply.

“Demand has also continued to be remarkably good for beef as prices have gone up,” he says. “Beef prices have increased relative to pork and poultry. There are alternative proteins that consumers could be turning to, and they’re not. So that’s a very positive sign from a beef industry standpoint.”

The “Historically Slow” Rebuild

Unlike the rapid expansion seen 10 years ago, Peel expects this cycle to be much slower. Producers are cautious, remembering how quickly record prices vanished in the past.

“I do think we’re probably beginning, but it’s certainly not a concerted effort,” Peel says. “There’s not a strong, broad-based initiative in the industry. It will probably grow, but I think it’s going to continue to grow pretty slowly.”

He explains the industry has outlasted the previous cycle highs by two-plus years.

“I think producers are coming around to the idea that this is a more sustained story,” Peel says.

What is the Take-Home Message for Producers?

The market is signaling a desperate need for a rebuild.

“The incentive is there, the value of forage is there,” he says. “If you’ve got forage you can use to raise calves, the market wants you to do that. And if you aren’t fully stocked, then it’s encouraging you to think about doing that. I think the main message for producers is to take advantage of this market.”

He also encourages producers to maintain the productivity of their herds.

“We have cut cow culling so far in the last two to three years that some of these cows are going to have to be culled going forward,” he explains. “So, we got to have a few more replacement heifers just to maintain the productivity of the herd. Take care of that first and then if you need to restock. I understand the tradeoff between selling them now for what is a record price versus investing in the future, but you know, sooner or later, we have to make that investment and look a little bit farther down the road.”

Other January cattle report highlights include:

Of the 86.2 million head inventory of all cattle and calves, cows and heifers that have calved totaled 37.2 million.
The number of milk cows in the U.S. increased 2% to 9.57 million.
The number of cattle on feed was down 3% to 13.8 million.

Nalivka adds, “Only time will tell as the year progresses to determine if USDA’s Cattle Inventory is on track. One cross-check will be cattle slaughter which is an actual number reported to USDA by the packers. The inventory is generated from an annual survey number. I understand that USDA aligns annual surveys with the five-year Agricultural Census. To say the least, I have greater confidence in numbers reported to USDA that can cross-check the validity of the survey.”

He does not expect the Cattle Inventory Report to have an impact on cattle numbers or the market going forward through 2026 and into 2027, particularly with a 2% smaller 2025 calf crop.

“Numbers will continue to tighten and when coupled with continued strong demand for beef will support the market at levels at and likely above the market peak seen during third quarter 2025,” he summarizes.

Glynn Tonsor, Kansas State University ag economist, posted on LinkedIn his analysis of the report. He shares state-level beef cow inventory estimates (of seven states with more than 1 million head) Kansas’ 7% decline stands out while Missouri, Montana, Nebraska and Texas are estimated to be down 1-3% and Oklahoma and South Dakota are flat. Only Texas has a sizeable increase in estimated replacement heifers.

He shares two broader points:

While it certainly is valuable to count the number of beef cows, understand status of herd expansion, and other factors that is far from a complete story on industry supply dynamics. In short, the industry has implemented a number of efficiency gains resulting in the net effect of more edible beef production per cow in the industry.
It has become way too common to focus on supply and overlook demand dynamics. In fact, recent work with Brian Coffey documents how recent beef price patterns have been impacted more by strong consumer beef demand than any supply-side adjustments .

Analyzing the inventory numbers Peel summarizes, “It’s just amazing to me that we continue down this path. We’ve kept extending the timeline. You know, technically, with the beef cow herd and the way we look at cattle cycles, I thought 2025 would turn out to be officially the low. Well, now we’re even smaller in 2026, so we will have to wait until next year’s number to see whether this is the low. We just keep pushing this timeline out that provides even more opportunities for producers to take advantage of this market.”

Bi-annual Cattle report would be called lightly positive. 1) There was no sign of any type of January 2015 expansion (retained beef heifers +9.5%). 2) Overall, numbers came in just below the four analyst expectation. pic.twitter.com/lvNaDBusz3
— Rich Nelson (@RichNelsonMkts) January 30, 2026

To obtain an accurate measurement of the current state of the U.S. cattle industry, NASS surveyed approximately 35,000 operators across the nation during the first half of January. Surveyed producers were asked to report their cattle inventories as of Jan. 1, 2026, and calf crop for the entire year of 2025 by internet, mail, telephone or in-person interview.

Your Next Reads:
Tightest Cattle Supply Predicted in The Next 60 to 90 Days
CattleFax Predicts Profitability Despite Increased Uncertainty

What Caused Grains to Fail on Monday? Cattle Chase Cash

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 21:35:54 GMT

Grains ended lower on Monday with livestock futures mostly higher.

Grains Fail to Extend Gains on Profit Taking
Grain markets ended lower on Monday, failing to extend gains after last week’s short covering rally and higher weekly closes. Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says the grain markets all hit technical resistance on the charts and may have seen profit taking by fund traders or even some farmer selling on the board.

Nervousness About Canadian Tariff Threat?
Hudson doesn’t think there was any spillover selling from the outside markets. There was a risk off marketplace Monday as President Trump over the weekend threatened to place 100% tariffs on Canada in reaction to their trade deal struck with China. This impacted the metals markets which rallied to record highs in gold and silver. The dollar index was also sharply lower on concern about a government shutdown and the possibility of U.S. and Japanese authorities threatening to step in and halt a steep slide in the yen, implying a readiness to buy the Japanese currency and sell U.S. dollars.

Soybeans Also Fail
Soybean futures were also lower on profit taking after the inability to stay above the 200-day moving average resistance area on the charts. Export inspections were strong at 48.7 million bu. Monday morning but the accumulated total on shipments is still 37% below last year. Hudson says China has also been slow to ship their soybean purchases, even though they are estimated to have reached their 12 MMT purchase commitment. But the sales will at least allow USDA to keep those exports on the books moving forward.

China Done Buying U.S. Soybeans?
With that being said, Hudson thinks China is likely done buying soybeans from the U.S. and will now turn to Brazil for their cheaper supplies. He says they may not be back in the U.S. market until August or September.

Weather Premium Being Removed in Corn and Soybeans?
Corn and soybeans, even soybean meal, seemed to put in some weather premium last week with the hot and dry conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil. However, Hudson doesn’t think this weather has cut yields yet and until the private firms start cutting their production forecasts this won’t get too much more attention by the trade. Weather also had the effect of slowing down ethanol production and soybean processing efforts as some plants found it was more profitable to slow operations and sell the natural gas. Additionally there has been a slow down in grain marketing and movement with the Winter Storm Fern hitting 28 states with snow, ice and record low temperatures.

Corn Continues to See Strong Export Demand
Corn export inspections on Monday were solid at 59.5 million bu. and total shipments are running 53% ahead of a year ago. This follows huge weekly exports last Friday at nearly 158 million bu. for the week ending Jan. 15. This was the second highest weekly total and the highest since 2021. However, Hudson says even this strong demand isn’t enough to take a dent out of the large carryout at over 2.2 billion bu.

Wheat Sets Back Despite Freezing Temps
Wheat futures caught a bid last week ending 10 to 13 cents higher in the three classes for the week but also seeing a chart breakout on the hard red winter wheat above the 100-day moving average. Hudson says some of that was short covering by the funds but the cold weather and winter kill concerns in the winter wheat crop also played a role. However, he says with the stocks to use ratio globally so high the market really can’t put in more weather premium without becoming non-competitive and likely also saw some profit taking.

Cattle Follow Cash Higher
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher on Monday with help from Friday’s higher cash trade establishment and weather. The five area weighted average steer came in at $234.70, up $2.20 from the previous week. However, on Friday the fed market cash in the South started out at $232 but by the end of the day extended to $236.50. The volume was $233 to $235. In the North dressed prices were mostly $370, up $5 and live prices at mostly $235, up $3 from the previous week. Higher boxed beef values at noon also supported the rally.

Can Live Cattle Futures Take Out Resistance?
Live cattle futures are still trading sideways though according to Hudson, and will need further cash strength this week to get through overhead resistance areas and achieve a breakout and bigger rally.

Lean Hogs Mostly Higher
Lean hog futures ended higher except for the Feb. contract. However, back months continue to grind into new highs. Hudson says those summer months are offering some attractive hedging opportunities especially with the lower feed prices.

Cattle Rally on Higher Cash, Trumping COF: Tightest Numbers Ahead

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 16:20:15 GMT

Cattle and lean hog futures saw early strength on Monday with grains quietly mixed.

Cattle Futures Rally With Cash
Cattle futures saw a mixed opening and quickly moved higher. Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says he was concerned the trade might view a slightly bearish Cattle on Feed report placement number as a reason to sell but the market was more focused on the higher cash trade Friday.

Southern cash ranged from $232 to a few up to $236.50, but the volume was at $233 to $235, steady to $2 higher than last week. Northern dressed trade ranged from $364 to mostly $370, up $5 and live sale prices ranged from $233 to $236.50. So a strong showing that Kooima says may have been pushed somewhat by the winter weather system bearing down on cattle feeding areas.

Cash Trumps Cattle on Feed
The USDA Cattle on Feed report was slightly bearish according to Kooima. On feed totals came in at 96.8% which was in line with expectations but it is still 95% of the five year average, so bullish. The placements at 94.6% of last year were slightly above expectations, while the marketings were at 101.8%, in line with estimates.

Placements Jump in Texas
Kooima says this is the first USDA Cattle on Feed report that is comparing apples to apples, meaning this is the first month of 2025 where the border was closed to Mexican feeder cattle imports. Last year Texas placements were sharply lower as a result so this report showed placements in Texas at 110% of a year ago.

Quarterly Steer and Heifer Breakdown
The quarterly breakdown of steers and heifer in feedlots shows 38.7% were heifers with 61.3% steers. Kooima says this is very close to year ago totals and even the last quarter. So while there is a slight indication of heifer retention its is not enough to cause concern above rapid rebuilding.

Live Cattle Technically Breaking Out?
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday and for the week but live cattle have been sideways on a chart. So, is the market finally seeing a breakout technically or what would it take to confirm that? Kooima says the highest open interest is in the April live cattle contract and currently he is watching $239.05 on a chart because a close above that level could push futures to the next level. That could cause the chart gap area to be filled and a possible retest of the October all-time highs would be possible.

Lean Hogs Rebound Will Summer Months Close Above $110?
Lean hog futures were back higher after mild profit taking in the front end of the board on Friday. The summer month futures continue to grind into new contract high areas pushed by disease and are knocking on the door of $110. If that level is taken out where is the next objective? Kooima says while the funds could push the market higher he suggests producers look at hedging those levels and locking in some profits.

Corn and Soybeans Hitting Chart Resistance
Corn and soybeans started off lower with some spillover from outside markets that were reacting to President Trump’s threat of 100% tariff on Canada for their trade agreement struck with China. Soybeans were higher last week on hot, dry weather in Argentina and Southern Brazil but were struggling to extend those gains.

The problem according to Kooima is both corn and soybeans continue to run into chart resistance. For March soybeans the 200-day moving average has been a sticking point. While export demand has also been stronger, especially for corn, Kooima says it still isn’t enough to chew through the massive supplies with a record crop and that is keeping a lid on a bigger rally.

Gulke: What Did We Learn From the USDA Reports?

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 17:00:05 GMT

For the week March corn lost 21 cents, March soybeans fell 4 ¾, March soybean meal plunged $13.70, March soybean oil soared 292 points, March soft red winter wheat gained ¾, March hard red winter wheat lost 3 and March hard red spring wheat fell 2.

Grain markets were mostly lower for the week with corn taking the brunt of the selling pressure in reaction to USDA’s bearish January reports. The agency raised corn yield by .5 bu. per acre to 186.5 bu. and raised harvested acres by 1.3 million, which led to a record 17 billion-bu. crop. This was a disappointment and even a shock for many farmers who were convinced the yield would be cut.

What Did We Learn From The USDA Report?
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the report provided some valuable lessons about marketing. “You just can’t look in your backyard and think, what’s going on there is the same everywhere.We had clients in Nebraska that would have bet the farm that the yield was going to be closer to 181 or 182 rather than 186 bu.If they bet the farm they lost,” he says.

Where Did the 1.3 Million Harvested Corn Acres Come From?
Gulke says USDA added insult to injury by raising harvested acres another 1.3 million to a final 91.3 million acre. The Gulke Group does an acreage survey every spring and he says in 2025 it showed over 100 million acres of corn would be planted by farmers.“And I said, I can’t print that, you know, I’ll be the laughingstock of the media. Well, we finally printed 98.2 million and people thought we were nuts. Well, it took this long to get there.”So based on their survey work he was not surprised with USDA’s print because there was a massive move to corn.“I don’t care if you were a 250-acre farmer or a 10,000-acre farmer, they were all doing that.”

He says this was the first time in his career he’s seen that big of a trend shift, but it was forced by the crop insurance guarantee. “If you had full coverage on corn, you probably wouldn’t lose much so that has an influence. So, suddenly, we’re not taking our cues from the marketplace, we’re being manipulated by the media or by the president himself, perhaps. ”However, he says for soybeans insured at 85% of the price it takes a long time for the insurance to kick in.So, he thinks it will be hard to get acres to shift out of corn again in 2026.

Gulke says they thought USDA could raise harvested acres in the final production report based on the methodology and it made sense to him with an eight million acre increase in planted acres over last year. He explains, “There are always unharvested acres due to wind, hail and the like and the rest of it is cut for silage for use in dairies and other livestock operations.” Plus, the amount of corn cut for silage didn’t change much from last year so that extra corn was harvested as grain.

Farmers Upset with the USDA Report
Gulke heard from many clients after the report that were upset with USDA. “I mean, there were a lot of farmers that thought there was scheming going on by USDA before the report, but there’s a lot more suspecting it now. They say it proves all USDA wants is cheap food.”

While farmers can argue the credibility of USDA’s data and the models they use, he stresses that the agency doesn’t manufacture the numbers. He recommends producers really read the WASDE report. “You can go through the tables, and it shows what states had what, but then you get to the protocol. In other words, here they write about how they made their decisions and how the data came about.” He says only then can you argue the rationale behind it.

Report Indicates Farmers Storing More Grain
According to Gulke many farmers were surprised by the report because they were long in the market, as more stored grain this fall on the farm to for a rally. “You know, if the crop really wasn’t there, there was an awful lot of it stored on farms. There was 15% more grain stored on farm than last year.”Plus, Gulke also questioned if the corn supply was so tight why wasn’t his basis narrower? “ Prior to that report, my basis in northern Illinois was worse than when I harvested the grain.”

Gulke says he offered various marketing strategies this fall. “We talked about whether or not to store grain, or to sell it and buy a call.”He says for farmers that paid 30 to 40 cents to commercially store corn and wait for a rally, that corn is worth the same or less now than it was when it was harvested. According to Gulke, a loss of 25 cents on corn equals $50 an acre.So, for a farmer that was storing 2 million bu. that’s $500,000 of lost income.“It’s a lesson to be learned. I’ve seen it before. It’s just too bad that it didn’t go the way that everybody wanted to. Now we’ve got a problem,” he adds.

So, what should farmers learn from the report? Gulke says, “That you really have to think out of the box a little bit when it comes to your marketing or be prepared for a shock and there are marketing tools to help protect against that loss.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Grains Bounce but Can the Market Build on It: Cattle Collapse on NWS Fear

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 22:29:52 GMT

Grains and hogs end higher on Friday with cattle sharply lower.

Grains See Technical Bounce, End User Buying
Grain markets ended higher on Friday with technical buying and short covering. However, Shawn Hackett with Hackett Financial Advisors says with prices plunging at the beginning of the week in response to the bearish USDA report, the lower price levels stimulated end user buying. “We’ve had very good end user buying for sure. I think a lot of I think the market is questioning some of the supplies that came out on this report, especially the corn numbers. I think a lot of pretty good data that we have suggests they might be too high on the corn numbers. And so I think because of some of the distrust over the legitimacy of the USDA numbers. The value buying was brought into the market.”

USDA reported additional flash sales for corn of 11.7 million bu to unknown destinations and 4.7 million bu. sold to Japan for the 2025-26 marketing year. That followed a string of daily export sales announcements this week for both corn and soybeans.

Are the Lows in the Corn Market?
Corn was down 21 cents for the week on the March contract but with the strong finish to the week Hackett is confident some long term lows may have been established and the August lows will hold. However, corn has effectively carved out a new lower trading range and he says upside is going to be limited without some type of catalyst.

“I really think Monday was anticlimactic. Normally when you have a large supply report like that, if the market truly embraces and believes it, you would typically get follow through selling over the next couple of days. We did not see that. And the fact that we did not see that means that the market pretty much, in my opinion, in our opinion, has priced all that large supply numbers in on the balance sheets. And I think now we’re going to start chipping away from better demand, from some weather issues, acreage battles that are going to be talking about. So maybe some quarterly, quarterly grain stocks, adjustments in the market I think is moving beyond that supply, moving ahead and start looking at what could go wrong here with those large numbers. What is the market not considering. Have they overpriced to the downside here?”

Are Soybeans Forging a Double Bottom Low?
March soybeans lost a nickel on the week and have also carved out a new trading range with March making a double bottom at the January low of $10.38. Unlike corn, he thinks there is still some downside risk for soybeans with the record crop being harvested in South America. “When Brazil’s crop comes to market there will be South American hedge pressure weighing on the market. “That will also coincide with China switching their soybean buying over to Brazil,” he adds.

Wheat Adds Weather Premium
Hackett says the wheat market was also adding some weather premium with concerns about frigid temperatures in U.S. winter wheat area but more importantly a forecasted cold snap for Ukraine and Russia. He says that sparked some short covering by the funds as well.

Cotton Higher for the Week: Can It Stage a Bigger Rally?
The cotton market was slightly higher for the week but has been slow to stage a bigger rally despite slightly bullish USDA report data and a marketing year high on exports this week. USDA lowered cotton production to 13.9 million bales and ending stocks were cut 300,000 bales to 4.2 million bales. Hackett thinks eventually the market will stage a bigger rally because historically low acreage cannot be sustained for two years in a row. However, he does admit one headwind will be crude oil prices under the $60 mark.

Cattle Collapse on Another NWS Rumor
Live and feeder cattle futures collapsed on Friday on another unconfirmed rumor of New World Screwworm (NWS) in New Mexico. NCBA officials confirmed there was no case in the U.S. However, Hackett says the AI generated trading systems unfortunately tanked the market on Friday. He says those markets were overbought, especially the feeder cattle futures, and had hit some technical chart resistance and so there was some profit taking as well or fund long liquidation that added pressure to the market.

The lower futures led to only steady cash in the fed markets which was also a disappointment. Southern deals were mostly $233 with the Northern dressed market at $365 and live sales prices from $230 to $233. Hackett says while boxed beef values have been moving higher he is disappointed that the Choice values are only around $360 which may be limiting the upside in the futures as well.

USDA Responds to Farmer Frustration After January Report Delivers Major Surprises

Fri, 16 Jan 2026 19:09:29 GMT

The January USDA reports, considered the most influential data releases of the year, delivered unexpected increases in corn yield, harvested acreage and total production , pushing the U.S. corn crop above 17 billion bushels and sending futures sharply lower.

Ahead of the reports, average trade estimates pointed to only minor adjustments, a typical pattern for January. Instead, USDA delivered one of the more consequential end-of-season revisions in recent years, triggering frustration among farmers who struggled with disease pressure and weather challenges during the growing season.

Key takeaways from the report:

Corn yield: 186.5 bu./acre, well above expectations
Soybean yield: 53 bu./acre; production at 4.26 billion bushels
Corn production: Record 17 billion bushels
Harvested corn acres: 91.3 million
Dec. 1 corn stocks: Over 13 billion bushels, above trade estimates
Soybean stocks: 3.3 billion bushels
Wheat stocks: 1.6 billion bushels

Ending stocks estimates from USDA were also higher than anticipated with corn at 2.2 billion bushels. Soybeans came in at 350 million bushels.

In January 2026, USDA released record corn yield and production numbers.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

The biggest surprise came as USDA raised corn yield despite expectations for a cut, driving record production and adding pressure to an already well-supplied market.

“Acres times yield,” says Joe Vaclavik of Standard Grain. “There were too many corn acres, and the yield was larger than what the trade had expected. And that combination left us with a U.S. crop estimate for 2025, north of 17 billion bushels, more than 1 billion larger than the previous record. So, the trade was caught totally off guard by the size of the crop.”

Vaclavik says not only did those changes surprise the market, but it also sparked debate.

“There’s a lot of debate,” Vaclavik says. “Was the yield number accurate? Were the acres accurate? The acres ever been accurate? A lot of debate about that, but that was the big surprise.”

Accuracy of USDA’s Latest Reports in Question

The accuracy of the reports, and how USDA came up with such a large jump in acres, is what’s aiding the farmer frustration. USDA Deputy Secretary Vaden was asked about that while speaking to farmers during the Kentucky Bowling Green this week.

“Why does USDA continue to find corn acres and similar data that destroy markets as soon as they get too high,” was the question from one farmer.

“We may not like the report, but it is not necessarily inaccurate,” Vaden responded. “USDA market moving data will be more closely scrutinized going forward, and will begin to be held accountable for large revisions if it is a fault of the agency. We plan to have NASS staff available at the Ag Outlook Forum this year to answer questions as well. We will find out in September of 2026 if their current estimates were off based on revisions made at that time. If we notice a trend in errors we will review the way the statistics are calculated.”

Industry expectations compared to what NASS published.

(USDA NASS )

Small National Increase in Corn Yield, Big Regional Differences

Lance Honig, chair of the Agricultural Statistics Board and a senior official with USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS), also addressed those concerns in a one-on-one interview with Farm Journal this week, offering detailed explanations on how and why the January data changed so significantly.

While the national corn yield increased in the January report, Honig stresses the adjustment itself was relatively modest.

“The yield increase we saw was pretty small, about six-tenths of a bushel from where we had previously published,” Honig says.

However, the national average masked wide regional variation. Honig acknowledges yields declined in parts of the central Corn Belt, including Iowa, where disease pressure received significant attention throughout the season.

USDA NASS shows where the changes to yield came from in 2025.

(USDA NASS )

“We did see a little bit of a drop in yield across parts of the United States, and even really parts of Iowa and such, because of some of the disease pressure,” he says. “But we also saw pretty big yield increases to the North and to the South. Obviously, all the talk and attention was on those disease problems, but even those changes weren’t maybe as large as people had expected, but the real driver, I think, was those increased yields outside of that part of the growing area.”

As Honig points out, those declines were offset by stronger results elsewhere, especially in states that are considered more of the “fringe acres” when it comes to yield production. According to Honig, the final data showed yield losses in high-profile problem areas were outweighed by better-than-expected performance in other regions.

USDA’s 2025 yield projection of 186.5 bu. per acre marks a new record.

(USDA NASS )

The Bigger Driver Came in Harvested Acreage Jump

While yield caught headlines, Honig says the most significant factor behind the production increase was harvested acreage.

Planted acreage had already been revised higher earlier in the season after USDA incorporated Farm Service Agency (FSA) certified acreage data in August and September. By that point, most of the increase in planted corn acres was already known. However, harvested acreage, how many of those planted acres actually went to grain, remained uncertain until after harvest.

“When it comes to the harvested acreage, the survey is really the driver. Planted acreage absolutely is the FSA data,” Honig says. “That’s what you certify as a producer with FSA, how many acres you’ve planted. You do report your harvest intention. There’s some data we can look at there, but the reality is that’s recorded back in the spring, maybe early summer. And so until you find out what actually happened, you really don’t know for sure what that harvested area looks like.”

This chart shows the change in harvested acres compared to the previous report.

(USDA NASS)

This chart shows the change in harvested acres compared to the previous year, according to USDA NASS.

(USDA-NASS)

He says earlier in the year, USDA assumed the ratio of planted acres harvested for grain would remain consistent with what farmers reported in June, and consistent with how much of the crop went to grain versus went to silage or was abandoned, would be similar to past years.

“When we went back and surveyed 73,000 farmers after harvest and collected actual results, what we found was a much higher proportion of those larger planted acres went to grain than we had previously anticipated,” Honig says.

Final Planted Acreage Still a Surprise With Big Changes from June to January

USDA estimates farmers planted 98.8 million acres of corn, about 3.6 million more acres than expected back in March and June. Honig says that number was surprising not only based on what farmers told USDA and NASS earlier in the year, but also based on what most people watching the situation thought back in June, as well.

“This was definitely a larger change between June and January than we would typically see,” he says. “There’s really two components. You really have to break the acreage down though, because you’ve got your planted area and then, of that total, how many of the acres were harvested for grain. Obviously big changes from June to January in both cases, but from a planted perspective, we picked this almost all up back in August and September.”

The change in planted acres shows most states planted more corn acres in 2025, with the heaviest increases in the South and Northern Plains.

(USDA NASS)

Honig says planted area only increased by about 60,000 acres since USDA last published the number, but the big swing that really drove the production change in January was that harvested acreage increase.

“And so we had been inching that up as we moved the planted area up, but what we didn’t know since we didn’t have any new data about how many of those acres would be harvested for grain since June, we were assuming the same planted to harvested ratio that farmers told us back in June,” he says. “But in reality, after going back at the end of the season and getting that final data, what we discovered was that with that big uptick in acres from what they had reported back in June, a larger portion of those quote, I’ll call them extra acres, not really extra, but those additional acres, a much larger proportion of those were harvested for grain than what we would have thought back in June.”

In hindsight, Honig says, you can make sense of the changes as farmers either harvest it for grain, harvest it for silage or abandon those acres.

“And when it comes to silage, we just don’t see that much variation from year to year,” he says. “You don’t suddenly just decide you’re going to utilize a lot more silage. This is not how it works. And of course, with the weather we had this year, no big uptick in abandoned acres either. And so again, hindsight’s 20-20, but I think it does make sense that a higher portion of the large planted total this year, actually got harvested for grain.”

Acreage drivers behind the production jump:

Planted acreage increases were mostly identified by late summer
Harvested acreage was assumed, not measured, until after harvest
More acres went to grain than USDA expected
Silage use remained stable year over year
Abandonment stayed low due to favorable weather

How the Data Was Collected

It’s also important to note how the data was collected for the January report. Honig emphasizes January estimates are built on actual, end-of-season results rather than projections.

“For the end of the season, it’s really largely driven by a large survey we do of producers, about 73,000. We do that in the month of December, which means it’s after harvest,” he says. “So we’re actually asking a large number of producers after everything’s in the bin.”

Those surveys are conducted after harvest and ask farmers directly:

How many acres they planted
How many acres they harvested
How many bushels they harvested
What their final yield was

USDA also incorporates final objective yield survey data, which comes from physical sample plots across key growing regions. So, it’s no longer forecast, and it’s actual data from the crop that’s harvested.

“We do also have final results from the objective yield survey work that we did as well, which means those sample plots that we lay out across the key growing area across the country,” Honig says. “And so a lot of data after the crop has already been not only grown but harvested that are really just giving us actual results.”

Survey Response Rate and Farmer Participation

The December producer survey had a response rate of about 40.2%, down from roughly 46% last year but still strong by industry standards.

“If you compare that to what most folks in the survey business are doing, that’s actually still quite good,” Honig says.

Still, he encourages farmers to participate whenever possible.

“My message to all farmers would be: The more response we get, the more data we have, and the more accurate we can be,” he says.

Acknowledging Farmer Frustration

Honig says he understands why producers are frustrated by large January revisions, particularly in a year when margins are tight.

“These are all data-driven decisions,” he says. “We have one purpose at NASS, and that’s to estimate everything as accurately as we can.”

He notes that earlier use of FSA data helped reduce the size of the January adjustment and says USDA will continue evaluating ways to improve the process.

“We’re going to dig in between now and June and see if there’s anything we can do to make the process even better,” Honig says.

The Part Not Many Are Saying Out Loud

Vaclavik says the changes were surprising, and whether you think they’re accurate or not, Vaclavik points out the USDA reports have produced unprecedented changes all year. He thinks there’s an underlying issue impacting the data from USDA and NASS.

“My personal opinion is that it’s not an opinion. USDA is understaffed,” says Vaclavik. “Understaffed to what degree, I don’t know. That is the simplest answer to the reason that the data has been, the word I’ve been using for acres is ‘janky.’ It’s kind of all over the place. You saw these big moves during the growing season that you wouldn’t typically see. And I know the survey response rates are never great. That was again, the case this year, but I think that the easiest and simplest and most obvious answer. Is that USDA has staffing problems. They’re doing relocations. They, I think, pay people to quit, basically. I think that’s where the problem is.”

What Comes Next

Beyond corn, Honig says winter wheat seedings came in roughly in line with last year, slightly higher than some expected, and emphasized that the March report will provide another opportunity to refine those estimates.

Winter Wheat Seedings

(USDA NASS)

For now, Honig says the January numbers reflect what ultimately happened in farmers’ fields, even if the outcome surprised nearly everyone watching the market.

Grains Lower Still Digesting Reports: Where Did the Extra Corn Acres Come From?

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 21:47:59 GMT

Grain markets saw follow through selling on Tuesday, with livestock futures higher.

Corn Makes New Lows For the Move
Corn was lower for a second day with futures making more new lows for the move. Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says the corn market is still trying to digest the shock of the record yield, production and harvest acreage figures from USDA’s January reports. The corn market is now saddled with trying to find more demand to get rid of those extra supplies that USDA added. And we’re looking at a corn market that already had record demand in the first quarter of 25, 26.”

Will the August Lows Hold in Corn?
March corn futures came within striking distance of the Aug. 12 low at $4.10 and according to Grete that low could be retested. “Well, I think they’ll be tested. We’re seeing funds pump money into the short side of the corn market. And so a direct test is ahead, I think, of those August lows. If we take them out, then You’re talking about $4 as the next downside target. Quite honestly, I would much rather see just a flush in the market here. We get down to a price and then see buyers return. My biggest fear is that we just kind of grind sideways around the August lows, maybe a little bit above, maybe a little bit below, but around those levels and for an extended period of time, those are the hardest markets because you just don’t see any type of price recovery. Something that spikes down quickly and then recovers is much more palatable, in my opinion.”

USDA Report Hangover in Corn Focused on Acreage
While the record 186.5 bu. per acre corn yield got much of the attention on Monday, Grete says the 1.3 million acre increase in harvest acreage was the real culprit in raising yield from December to January. The 4.5 million acre increase from July through the final report in January was the largest increase in history. Where did it come from? Grete says primarily lower acreage cut for silage. He adds, “Acreage is largely what drove us to production above 17 billion bushels. Just a really big number there. The acreage isn’t going away.

Where did the increase in acreage come from? Grete says the key was harvested acres. “What we saw, one of the keys is in the June acreage report, harvested acreage percentage was 91.1%, very historically average there. In August, that moved to 91.2%. And then in the final, it moved to 92.4%. So we saw a 1.3 percentage point increase from the June acreage report to January final. And so what we saw is less acres were abandoned, less acres were harvested for silage, and more acres were harvested for grain. And so that’s really the part of the acreage story there and why we saw such an increase.”

Soybeans Follow Corn Lower, Digesting Higher Stocks
Soybeans were also lower on Tuesday on follow through selling but also following the lower corn market and still digesting the 60 million bu. added to carryout. “I think that The realization is that, hey, now we have 60 million more bushels that we need to chew through. And we have China coming to the end of its purchases of 12 million tons. Will it continue beyond that? We have those trade uncertainties that we talked about potentially with China flaring up. And then you have the record Brazilian crop that’s coming on board and soon to be an exportable position. And so there are some headwinds for the soybean market, and I think that we’re seeing that.”

Iran Tariff Spillover
The soybean market traders were also concerned with the 25% tariffs President Trump threatened on any country that does business with Iran, which brings the trade truce between the US and China into question. Grete says China is one of Iran’s largest customers and so there was fear of retaliation by China. Furthermore, with only a portion of China’s recent soybean purchases shipped there could be possible cancellations.

“When you look at the export commitments for China, so we’ve seen the outstanding sales increase, an increase pretty rapidly here recently, but we haven’t seen a whole lot of exports, and so those are lagging. And so those bushels are at risk, I think, of being canceled if we do get into a trade spat again with China.”

Will Soybeans Hold October Lows?
Currently soybeans are holding above the October lows but they may be vulnerable if corn continues to slide according to Grete. March needs to hold $10.28 or risk taking out the $10 level. “And then the funds. I mentioned that they’re long and starting to liquidate long positions. How long will that last? Do they want to move to a net short position? All those will help shape prices as we move forward here in the soybean market.”

Wheat Digesting Disappointing Acreage and Global Stocks
Wheat futures were also lower pulled down by corn and still digesting disappointment from the higher than expected winter wheat acreage in the Monday’s report as well as higher global ending stocks. Grete says the 33 million acre winter wheat seedings were nearly 700,000 acres above expectations. Global ending stocks were also up 3.4 MMT from December at 278.25 MMT which was also negative for the market.

“So winter wheat seedings came in virtually unchanged just down a fraction from year ago and the expectation there was that they would be down more. So we found almost an extra 600 thousand acres beyond what the expectation was. And so that kind of offset some of the concern with dryness in the plains and with the HRW crop and those types of things as we move through the rest of winter and into spring. And then the global situation. Year over
year, we’re up more than 18 million tons on the wheat ending stocks.”

Markets Await Tariff Ruling
Wednesday the Supreme Court is expected to rule on the legality of the IEEPA tariffs. The polymarkets are predicting the tariffs will be struck down and if they are Grete says it could be negative for the markets due to the uncertainty it will create.

Cattle Futures End Higher as Feeders Lead
Cattle futures were higher again on Tuesday with feeders continuing to show leadership in the complex, while live cattle have yet to take out last week’s highs in nearby contracts like the February. Feeder cattle futures are chasing the cash trade and trading at a discount to the index which continues to see futures grind into new highs for the move. Will feeders eventually pull the live cattle above last week’s highs and resistance areas? Grete says live cattle are waiting to see if cash will be higher again this week. He thinks fed cash will be up from last week despite announced packer kill cuts but could stall out next week ahead of the USDA Cattle on Feed Report.

Lean Hogs Grind Higher
Lean hog futures ended slightly higher but are being held back by the premium the futures are holding to the cash index. Grete says that index has been slowly sliding lower and that may be a headwind for the hog futures moving forward.

Cattle Continue Climb Towards Highs on Strong Cash: Grains See Report Hangover

Tue, 13 Jan 2026 16:44:21 GMT

Cattle futures were higher early Tuesday with hogs 2-sided. Grains were lower seeing report hangover.

Cattle Continue to Climb
Live and feeder cattle futures were higher on Monday with help from corrective buying and a 24 cent drop in corn prices. However, Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says strong cash has also been supportive. Last week’s cash was mostly $232 live in the North and $365 dressed, up $5. The South traded mostly $232 but there there instances up to $234. However, the 5-area weighted average steer price at $231.86, was up just $.18. Still, Kooima predicts fed cash trade will be higher this week as Yankton Livestock was starting out $2 higher. “And I think we have a packer that’s maybe a little closer to the knife, which I think should help,” he adds. The cash feeder market also continues to be red hot with the feeder cattle cash index at $369.13 coming into Tuesday’s session up $.50.

Cash HIgher This Week
Kooima says fed cash will be higher this week as packers are short bought plus the negotiated totals were extremely light last week. “There’s two categories, zero to 14 and 15 to 30 in the 15 to 30 day. And that would be cattle that are bought that aren’t going to get harvested
for 15 days or more. It was only 315 cattle. Usually there’s thousands in that. So I’m hoping that maybe that’ll mean that they have to try a little harder that
they don’t have quite as many cattle in front of them. So we’ll see. Based on the sale barn stuff, it looks like we’d have a shot at it this week. So short answer, long answer, yes, I think that we will see higher cash. “

Packers Cutting Kills
Kooima says packers are seeing margins in the red and cutting kills to compensate. “That seems to be a very popular theme that there’s many packers going to 32 hours this week, which I believe is caused by the fact that there’s not enough cattle to go around,” he says. The packer is not going to buy as many cattle but the result will likely rally the boxed beef quickly. “It’s started already,” he points out. Meanwhile, the Choice cutout values are discounted to the Select which he says is a signal of that tight supply.

Lexington, Neb. Plant Now Closed Shifts Leverage Away From Producers
As we reported on Friday the Tyson plant in Lexington, Neb. already closed on Friday or at least did not schedule any shifts for this week after an announced closure for Jan. 20. Kooima says the closure of this plant will likely take leverage away from negotiated cattle producers in Nebraska as many of those cattle will go to Dakota City, Neb.

“Lexington was largely a formula -only plant. So a lot of these, all these cattle that we’re going from these bigger feed yards into Lexington now have to go somewhere else and that somewhere else is probably Dakota City which is 64 miles from where I’m sitting the closest plant they have. Yet we never sell cattle there almost never. I worry that what’s going to happen is that Dakota City will become a nearly 100% formula plant and that they now all of a
sudden you’ll have less price discovery because they’ll be out of the mix here in terms of buying cattle on a daily basis. So I hope I’m wrong, but I don’t
think I am.”

Feeders Continue to Lead Live Cattle Higher?
While live cattle futures closed lower last week the feeder cattle futures had a higher weekly close and continue to make new highs for the move. Will feeders be able to continue to lead and pull live cattle through chart resistance areas?

“Feeders have long been the leaders here. That’s been very typical of this whole cattle cycle. And that’s been, of course, largely influenced by an incredibly strong cash feeder cattle market. A feeder cattle, cash feeder cattle market that still is a significant premium to where the last futures price is. We’re going to be about $369 on the index today. And January feeders are at $362 .45. So, you know, the dragging the discount up continues.” He says as he looks at the charts he sees a bull flag or bull pennant, “So we need to break out to the top side of it, which I guess I think we will. And then maybe we can take a run at the highs.”

He says the tightest supply is coming in the next 60 or 90 days of the entire cattle cycle and the feeder cattle supply has been pulled forward due to the strong prices. “The guy that’s selling these calves loves the price, he can’t wait to sell them. And so I think, you know, the supply of feeder cattle is not going to be any big amount at all here going into the first quarter of the year. Typically isn’t any way in the north, but it’ll especially be tight, I believe. So, yeah, I think that, you know, to me, the fundamentals and the technicals align here for a chance here that we have one more leg up to go ahead and make a run, and test in those gaps that we left or maybe even taking out those highs.”

Lean Hogs Faltering With Weaker Cash
Lean hog futures traded both sides of steady early in the session but are seeing some pressure as the morning wears on. The futures are trading at a premium to the declining cash index which is dragging down the market. “The cash feels heavy, average weights way above a year ago. Domestic demand seems to be improving because of the price point that it is. But, you know, in terms of export demand, it’s not, it’s just not there. It doesn’t appear to be there anyway. And we have this much supply. You got to have perfect demand.” The lean hog futures saw a correction Monday despite lower feed prices after deferred contracts hitting new contract highs on Friday. Kooima says futures are trading below the 20-day moving averages for the first time in a month, which is a poor technical sign for the market as well.

Grains See Report Hangover
Corn and soybean futures are lower early Tuesday still digesting the bearish data from USDA’s January reports which raised corn yield to a record 186.5 bu. per acre and production to a record 17 billion bu. The key will be whether or not March corn can held the low from Aug. 12 at $4.10. Kooima think there’s a chance because at that time the market was absorbing an even bigger shock from USDA’s 188.8 bu. yield estimate. And corn has to stop going down he says to hold soybeans intact, even though the report was less bearish and there has been some China buying.

However, he says the market is frustrating for producers. “I have great empathy for the grain guys here. Typically when the USDA starts to shrink that yield, they keep doing it. And it takes till January to figure out how many acres, really, huh? So I’m frustrated too with the methodology of it.”

Corn Leads Grains Lower as USDA Shocks The Market With Record Yield and Production

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 21:51:23 GMT

Grain markets ended lower on Monday after the bearish USDA reports. Cattle recovered and lean hogs were also lower.

Corn Tanks After USDA Raises Corn Yield and Production
March corn futures ended 24 cents lower on Monday after USDA shocked the market by raising yield .5 bu. per acre to a record 186.5 bu. per acre, after the trade was expecting a yield cut of 2 bu. The agency also raised corn production to a record 17 billion bu. Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX says the move surprised him, the market and many farmers who were expecting a yield cut following heavy Southern rust and other disease pressure that trimmed corn yields last fall.

“Well on the first hand I didn’t necessarily believe my yield model last July either when it said 186.9 bu. and that’s where we ended up pretty close to that. Then you talk about the disease problems, the dryness as we finished the season. So I was somewhat surprised as well. But 186 is what our customer survey said Nov. 1. and that’s thousands of data points across primarily the Midwest, with some very good areas, some very bad areas.”

Suderman adds that he has never seen USDA do so many revisions of the prior year’s crop in the January report.

USDA Increases Corn Ending Stocks Above 2 Billion
Final U.S. ending stocks were raised 200 million to 2.27 billion bu. even with record total corn usage of 16.4 billion bu. Suderman disagrees with how the agency derived those numbers as they raised feed and residual another 100 million bu. to 6.2 billion while exports were left unchanged at 3.2 billion. Suderman says USDA could have made a much better case for raising exports as inspections are running 61% of last year.

“I expected USDA to raise the export target. If you look at marketing year to date export inspections over 333 million bu. above the seasonal pace needed to hit USDA’s record target of 3.2 billion, so they could have justified going higher on that. Instead, they went higher on feed usage.” In fact, he says its over 700 million bu. higher than last year. “With fewer animals on feed this year. That just doesn’t make sense whatsoever.” He thinks the agency was just trying to the ending stocks number from getting up to 2.4 to 2.5 billion. bu. which would be possible if USDA had a reasonable feed usage number.

How Far Will Corn Prices Fall?
Corn futures took out the bottom side of the sideways range the market had been trading in so how much farther will prices fall? Suderman says, “They did most of the damage in the first minute of trade as the algos put these numbers through and automatically put in sell orders. So big liquidation there as more speculative longs liquidated in this market. The question is now will they go short or not?”

He says the long term charts have some gaps below the market that should be supportive. “But the question I think now is this wasn’t such a surprise to the basis market as it was to the futures market, but will the algos go ahead and chase those chart objectives around $4.05 and $4.10 or will they or will we see enough end user buying come in here on the break to give us some stability as we move through the week?” He says there’s a big corn crop in the country. “Just look at the basis in the spreads that’s been indicating that this was a big crop.”

Soybean Yield Unchanged, Ending Stocks Raised
On soybeans USDA left yield at 53 bu. per acre, with final production up slightly at 4.26 billion bu. However, USDA raised ending stocks to 350 million bu.
as exports were lowered 60 million bu. and Brazil’s soybean crop was raised 3 MMT to 178 MMT. Suderman says he was surprised USDA lowered exports that much already in January even though he thinks total exports may still be too high at 1.575 billion bu. as export sales are running 30% behind last year.

“I’m still around 20 to 25 million bu. below USDA. I agree with the decrease in exports but I was surprised that USDA went that far this early in the year. I thought they would give more time to see what China did. I still expect China to buy the 12 MMT, although there are questions of whether they’ll take shipment of all of it in this marketing year. I think they could have gone higher with the crush number. So they were conservative on timing of that, but not on the cut in the exports,” he says.

October Lows Hold in Soybeans
Soybeans ended off of session lows with the March down only 13 cents and so Suderman says it was encouraging that the October lows held. “Yeah I think that was a positive. Now we need to be able to stabilize things going into the rest of the week and and get a Friday stabilization to this week overall. And does corn pull soybeans lower? I think that’s a big question. And of course, the other thing that could change the dynamics at any point, if we would hear that the EPA has sent their final guidelines to the OMB, the Office of Management and Budget for approval, I think that would bring some enthusiasm back to the soy complex, that we could hear those final regulations sooner rather than later.”

Winter Wheat Seedings Only Down 1%?
U.S. wheat ending stocks were raised 25 million bu. to 926 million. While winter wheat seedings were at 33 million acres, only 163,000 below a year ago. Suderman says that does not match up with their customer/farmer surveys and is a bit of a head scratcher considering the low prices for wheat. “We were looking for a much larger overall drop in wheat winter wheat acres this year. So it really surprised me. I think maybe if USDA is right, it may be some areas that got some rain quickly put in a crop in the Plains.”

He says the Plains have turned dry so he wouldn’t be surprised to see a downward adjustment in March. He admits there could be some acres that were planted to graze cattle on. “Yeah, absolutely. But there’s, you know, there’s fewer cattle in the Southern Plains anyway to put on that wheat. So, uh, I’m not sure how much that was.”

Will Farmers Give up Acres in 2026?
So with most grain prices below the cost of production will farmers give up some acres in 2026 because they can’t make a profit? Suderman says farmers are eternal optimists and so he doesn’t think they will leave any acres idle. “Farmers like to plant,” he says.

Cattle Recover
Live and feeder cattle futures recovered on Monday with a boost from the lower corn prices but also getting help from higher boxed beef values at noon and last week’s higher cash trade. However, the weekly kill was only 553,000 which was down 38,000 from a year ago a function of tight supplies but also packers cutting kills to prop up their margins. He thinks the market is in good shape with only periodic corrections.

“The numbers of cattle are down. The cheap corn is going to continue to keep demand for feeder cattle there, and they’re going to feed probably to heavier weights. Packer margins have been pretty compressed. Packers trying to tighten things up a little bit in the meat supply to help their margins. But overall, cheap corn prices should continue to help stimulate demand for these cattle.”

Corn Futures Drop Following Surprise Yield Increase in January USDA Report

Mon, 12 Jan 2026 18:04:28 GMT

The January USDA reports are the biggest of the season with final crop production for the previous year, world supply and demand estimates, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings for the new season. Average trade guesses ahead of Monday indicated only minor adjustments to the annual reports that are historically a huge market mover.

This year, all eyes were on final yields and production, specifically corn, and USDA provided several bearish surprises.

Corn Crop Still Big

USDA didn’t back off its big corn crop forecast, putting its final 2025 production at 17 billion bushels. The agency raised its final yield estimates from November to 186.5 bu. per acre. ( Ahead of the report , the trade was expecting a 2 bu. cut to 184 bu. per acre.) The gains also include raising acreage 4.5 million above the June survey, which analysts say is unprecedented. The final harvest area is now estimated at 91.25 million acres.

In January 2026, USDA released record corn yield and production numbers.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

The increase in production also lifted U.S. ending stocks to 2.227 billion bushels. That’s up from 2.029 in December 2025 and well above traded estimates. Corn futures markets sank double digits immediately following the release.

“That’s just a massive crop, 186.5 for yield, says Matt Bennett with AgMarket.Net. “I take issue with the higher corn yield considering the heavy disease pressure in parts of the Corn Belt.
A lot of people, of course, with recency bias and all the issues felt like [USDA] could take this yield down a fair amount. I would say it was definitely a shock for most people.”

USDA raised total corn usage to a record 16.4 billion bushels.

“Exports have been nothing short of incredible so far. As far as sales are concerned, we’ve actually had good shipments, but USDA left exports at 3.2, and then actually took up feed and residual usage,” Bennett adds.

Soybean Numbers Remain Steady

On the soybean side of the aisle, USDA left yields basically unchanged from the November report at an estimated 53 bu. per acre. However it did raise overall production to 4.262 billion bushels.

USDA left soybean yields basically unchanged from the November report but did raise overall production.

(USDA/Lindsey Pound)

Ahead of the report , the average trade guess lowered yield by 0.3 bu. to 52.7 bu. per acre. Jerry Gulke thought President Trump’s goal of keeping food prices low and the fact USDA is providing Farmer Bridge Assistance might dictate a bearish slant.

Ending stocks are beginning the new year at 350 million bushels. That’s higher than December’s estimates based on smaller expected exports. The increase in production and lack of exports drove futures lower following the report.

“Essentially there were minor changes [for soybeans] other than exports, which went down 60 million bushels,” Bennett explains. “You’ve got to assume it’s because USDA took that Brazil crop up to 178. It’s something I think they lagged in doing. However, a 350 million bushels soybean carryout is still tight and with exports sales running 30% behind last year, it may be a gift for now.”

Winter Wheat Seedings Down

Farmers found a reason to plant more winter wheat than previously expected at 32.99 million acres. That’s well below last year’s crop planted on 33.15 million acres but larger than the trade had anticipated. Hard red winter wheat was nearly steady with last year at 23.50 million acres. Soft red winter wheat also near a year ago at 6.14 million acres while white winter wheat plantings fell to 3.36 million acres.

Click here to hear how Arlan Suderman, chief commodities economist with StoneX, breaks down the price action following the report.

What Farmers Should be Watching in the USDA Reports and Energy Markets

Sat, 10 Jan 2026 16:29:36 GMT

For the week March corn was up 8 ¼ cents, March soybeans gained 16 ¾, March soybean meal was $7.70 higher, March bean oil was up 30-points, March soft red winter wheat tacked on 10 ¾, March hard red winter wheat was 15 ¼ better while March hard red spring wheat lost 3 and March crude oil gained $2.05.

Grain markets ended higher this week heading into the biggest USDA data dump for the year, while crude oil also rallied despite news oil production in Venezuela would get a boost from United States intervention and the capture of former president Nicolás Maduro.

Grains Gear up For January USDA Reports
On Jan. 12 USDA releases the final crop production report of the year, plus the WASDE, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings. Average trade guesses indicate only minor adjustments in the balance sheets, which is not the history of those reports.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says many farmers believe that corn and soybean yields need to be cut. “If the report is super bearish, a lot of people are going to be upset about that because there’s 98% of the farmers that think that yields have got to come down and come down hard on corn,” he says.

Farmer Bridge Assistance a Sign of Bearish Reports?
So, what are Gulke’s expectations for the reports?He says with President Trump’s goal of keeping food prices low that may dictate a bearish slant. “The last thing that he wants is for the price of corn to go up 30 to 40 cents and beans to go up $2, because of the report.”
However, Gulke thinks just the fact USDA is providing Farmer Bridge Assistance is a sign that the reports could be bearish.“I remember our Secretary of Agriculture wanted to delay giving these bridge payments, until we knew more about the harvest and what China would do on trade and how that would impact the market,” he says.
Gulke says would be naïve to think the Secretary of Agriculture doesn’t have the information at her disposal to help make decisions on assistance.“And if they got a hint that this crop is going to be tight and the corn yield is 180 not 186, that would be a game changer.So, you look at that and suddenly you’re passing out money that’s going to be sent to us farmers in the next 60 days.”
Gulke is skeptical of the report data with USDA losing more than 20,000 employees and, in the process, also losing key institutional knowledge.“I’ve talked to some people there and they say you if you think data was questionable before, you haven’t seen anything yet.”
Regardless of what the report might say, Gulke decided to protect against the risk through options.“You could buy at the money options puts or calls in corn for three to five cents. I mean, it’s been a while since I’ve been able to protect the upside and downside. And so, we did some of that. For beans we looked at options there as well. The cost was about 13 cents, but you sell 25% to 30% of new crop.”

What is the Strategy After the Reports?
The reports will dictate the market direction, but Gulke says he will be watching ending stocks.For corn, USDA needs to drop carryout below 2.0 billion bu. “However they do it, I’d like to see that come out 1.8 billion, 1.9 billion bu. so the surplus doesn’t’ get any worse.”If ending stocks do balloon, then he says the only hope for a corn rally is a weather problem like a drought.
For soybeans, Gulke says ending stocks are tight around 290 million bu. and prices are high enough where soybeans work for some farmers.“They work for me and so I am going to be planting more beans in 2026,” he explains.However, that’s not true for everyone.
Last year when the Gulke Group did their own survey of acres nearly every producer said they were going to raise corn acres.So, what about 2026?Gulke says, “I’m shocked at what we’re seeing. I think on March 31, we may be surprised at the corn acres that we do intend to plant. A large percentage of our guys put on fertilizer last fall already and are 85% to 90% done.”Plus, with the aid payments he thinks more producers will stay with the status quo. “And I don’t think the market’s going to like that if that happens.”

Energy Markets Provide Opportunity to Lock in Fuel Needs
Gulke was also watching the energy markets this week as it looked like crude oil would take another leg lower as Venezuela agreed to hand over up to 50 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. with the sale being split between the two countries.
Gulke says he pays closer attention to the heating oil chart because it serves as a proxy for diesel fuel and he was looking for a place to lock in some supplies for his operation as prices are the lowest they have been in several years.He says heating oil broke through the October low and dropped four or five cents a gallon on Wednesday. Crude oil was also down that day, but the next session had a reversal higher and then extended gains on Friday.“Both markets not only recovered but put in bullish weekly key reversals and crude oil is back above the 50-day moving average,” he explains.
Why is that important for farmers?Gulke says the energy markets may have bottomed, so he recommends buying diesel fuel before prices rally further.“To me that looked like an excellent place for me to buy some spring needs for diesel fuel. We have a lot of costs we’re going to try to trim. If I can check that one off by buying it at $2.40 a gallon in smaller amounts. That’s 30 or 40 cents a gallon less than last fall and last spring.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Grains Post Higher Week but What in the USDA Reports Could Fuel the Rally?

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 21:54:52 GMT

Grain and livestock futures end mostly lower Friday except soybeans. However, grains all post higher weekly closes.

Grains Quiet Friday Ahead of the USDA Reports
Grain markets were nearly flat on Friday on positioning head of USDA’s big data dump on Monday. Darren Frye with Water Street Solutions says the trade guesses are fairly conservative with not many changes expected. However, that is not the history of the January reports. So could there be a surprise?

Could USDA Surprise the Market With Lower Corn Yields?
Last January USDA shocked the market with an nearly 4 bu. per acre cut in corn yields. So could history repeat itself? Frye says average trade guesses have corn yield down just 2 bu. at 186 bu. per acre, so the market is not looking for a huge change. He doesn’t think there is much likelihood the report will be bullish for corn because USDA isn’t likely to cut yield by 4 bu. like it did last year. Even if they did he thinks feed and residual is too high and the agency would just adjust that category to offset the production losses. That would result in ending stocks still close to the 2.0 billion bu. mark.

Trade Expects Only Minor Soybean Balance Sheet Changes
Trade estimates are also very conservative for soybean yield with a cut of only .3 bu. per acre. Frye admits the end of the season was dry and that hurt yield as soybeans fell down to only 8% to 9% moisture. However, he says soybean yields were still above average in many areas. As far as demand, he doesn’t think USDA will lower exports below the 1.635 billion bu. from last month even with sales running 30% behind last year. “I would have thought USDA would have lowered those already but they have been slow to adjust so I don’t see them making much of a change,” he says. That would leave ending stocks close to the 290 million bu. level in the December WASDE.

USDA to Release Dec. 1 Quarterly Stocks
USDA is also set to release quarterly stocks as of Dec. 1 and in the past that is the where a lot of the surprises have come from in USDA reports. Quarterly stocks are pegged at 12.96 billion bu. for corn, up 870 million bu. from last year. Wheat stocks are projected at 1.63 billion bu. which is up about 63 million bu. year over year. U.S. quarterly soybean stocks as of Dec. 1 are estimated at 3.25 billion bu. compared to 3.10 billion on Dec. 1, 2024.

What Do Corn and Soybeans Need in the USDA Reports to Rally?
Even though corn and soybeans were higher for the week, corn is still trading in its sideways range while soybeans have only recovered a small portion of the $1.40 losses from the November highs. So what does the market need to see in the report or otherwise to produce a rally? For corn, Frye says if the USDA report doesn’t provide a catalyst then the only other hope is a problem with Brazil’s safrihna corn crop. For soybeans, the balance sheet is much tighter but to rally the market soybeans will need to see more China business beyond the 12 MMT for this year.

Wheat Market Expects Lower Winter Wheat Acreage
Trade guesses for wheat ending stocks show just a 5 million bu. cut to 896 million bu. The bigger impact will be winter wheat seedings with expectations that lower prices curbed planting this fall. All winter wheat acreage is estimated 800,000 acres lower than last year. Most of this is likely programmed into the market though according the Frye and so it will need a weather problem or a geopolitical story to rally futures.

Cotton Needs a Catalyst
Cotton futures have recovered off of contract lows but the market is still depressed. So what could change that? Frye says cotton is tied to crude oil so that market may need to rally first.

Cattle Set Back Despite Higher Cash
Live and feeder cattle futures ended lower on Friday despite higher cash trade. Feedlots in the North reported $232.50 to $233 live sale prices but most of those bids were being passed, there was also additional trade on a dressed basis in the North at $365, up $5 from last week’s weighted averages. In the South feedlots were also holding out for higher money than the $232 bids offered by packers before the futures closed but sold some $232 in Kansas later in the afternoon.

The cattle futures were overbought so was Friday’s set back and divergence from the higher cash a healthy correction? Frye says there was some concern about news packers were cutting kills next week, with several plants going to 32 hours. Tyson’s Lexington, Neb. plant was also closed on Friday or at least there were no shifts being schedule for next week. That plant closing early, after initially announcing it would go dark on Jan. 20.

Strong Cash Trade Supports Cattle Futures as Feeders Lead: Grains Mixed

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 16:21:45 GMT

Cattle and hog futures started lower on Friday morning. Grains markets saw pressure in corn and wheat with a little bounce in soybeans.

Cattle Start Weak Awaiting Cash Direction
Live and feeder cattle futures were lower early Friday as the markets have hit some chart resistance and are overbought according to Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek. However, it didn’t take long for the markets to firm up supported by the cash market.

Fed Cash Trade Light But Strong
Fed cash cattle trade has been light this week but there was some Northern trade on Thursday paid by at major packer at $228 on a string of around 1,400 head that he was spooked the market. However, it was an outlier as bids started surfacing at $232 offered by three majors that were mostly passed on by feedlots. On the mandatory report USDA also had Northern dressed trade at $360 to mostly $365, which is up $5 from last week’s weighted averages. So, Varilek is anticipating higher fed cash to break Friday and the futures market is as well.

Cash Feeders on Fire
Varilek says the real leadership has been in the feeder cattle market as cash at auction barns has been on fire and the index has tacked on about $19 for the week. So, feeders have been the leaders on tight supplies.

More NWS Cases
However, there was another New World Screwworm (NWS) case that was report in Mexico on an older cow on Friday and there have been additional cases reported on calves. Varilek says there was a lot of talk in the market that the border was going to open to imports of Mexican feeder cattle by the first of the year. However, the additional cases continue to keep the market optimistic and just adds to the already tight supply situation.

Tyson Plant Closure in Lexington, Neb.
Tyson’s beef plant in Lexington, Neb. was initially scheduled to close operations on Jan. 20 but Varilek says their sources say there are no shifts scheduled for next week. He says the closure of the plant will have a negative impact on the amount of negotiated cattle traded in Nebraska. “That was a formula cattle plant and so now those cattle will get divided up and sold at Dakota City and North Platte which will mean fewer homes for negotiated cattle and that isn’t good for the market.”

2025 Cattle Slaughter Tells the Story
USDA’s slaughter figures for 2025 did show total inventory was down over 6% from the previous year. However, Varilek says the other story that was hidden in that data is that beef cow slaughter was down 17% from a year ago. This is lower than in recent previous years and indicates to him that there is some female retention starting to take place.

Lean Hogs Fall with Cash
Lean hog futures were down early on Friday on profit taking after running into chart resistance and getting oversold after Feb. hit 2.5 month highs. However, Varilek says the cash trade is also getting sloppy. The national negotiated cash market was down $3.24 on yesterday’s close and the lean hog index was down $.27 coming into the session at $80.98. However, he says the summer months are still well above $100 which is an indication of the disease reduced inventory expected in that time frame.

Grains Position Ahead of Reports
Corn and wheat were lower early Friday with the stronger dollar, while soybeans saw a bounce on a flash sale of 7.3 million bu. to unknown destinations. However, Varilek says the markets are more dominated by positioning ahead of the big USDA reports on Monday.

Grain Markets Gear Up for USDA Data Dump

Fri, 09 Jan 2026 20:48:22 GMT

The January USDA reports are the biggest of the season with final crop production, the WASDE, quarterly stocks and winter wheat seedings for the new season. The reports have been historically a huge market mover and a great deal of the focus will be on final yields and production.

All Eyes on Corn Yield
For corn yield the trade is expecting just a 2 bu. cut to 184 bu. per acre. DuWayne Bosse, with Bolt Marketing says that is too conservative. “On corn, I’m as low as 181, and honestly, I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s below 180. So my numbers are quite a bit below the average trade guesses. I mean, there were good yields out there but man, we planted almost 100 million acres of corn. And that means it’s in fringe areas.”

Other market analysts agree corn yields are under 184 bushels and the trade guesses but they are less confident. Chip Nellinger, Blue Reef Agri-Marketing agrees the national average corn yield is under 184 bu. and the average trade guess but says he’s not confident USDA will make much of a cuts. “I think if they went down to to 182,181, certainly below 181. I think would be a big bullish shock because I don’t think there’s many people out there that believe they will do that.”

A 184 corn yield would still put production at a record 16.6 billion bushels and lower ending stocks just 57 million bu. to just under 2.0 billion bu. So corn yield cuts will need to be larger than 2 bu. to get a market reaction because it is likely to be offset by lower feed and residual according to Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk. “You’ve you’ve got a feed residual number that’s 600 million bu. larger than this point last year. So, there’s some demand baked in there that could potentially offset production cuts.”

Soybean Changes Could Be Minimal
For soybeans the average trade guess only lowers yield by .3 bu. to 52.7 bu. per acre. But Bosse again thinks a bigger cut is warranted.
“I felt like the hot, dry finish, and, you know, again, we combined beans that were a lot of 8% and 9%, instead of 13%. We learned a year ago that does reduce the yield quite a bit.”

But the conservative yield cut estimate puts production at 4.23 billion bu. and ending stocks at 292 million nearly unchanged from December. That would require USDA to leave demand nearly unchanged, even though export sales are still nearly 30% behind last year. Nellinger says that may not be realistic but he’s not sure about USDA lowering exports further.
“In the case of the exports, I don’t know if we’re deep enough into the season yet for them to come off of, first base, so to speak. So hopefully they don’t, because if they do and they don’t do much as far as a yield cut, that really could be kind of a bearish signal for the bean market.”

USDA Releases Quarterly Stocks
USDA also releases quarterly stocks Monday with estimates of 12.962 billion bu. on corn, up nearly 900 million bu. from last year. Soybeans at 3.3 billion bu. would be up 125million and wheat at 1.64 billion, up 64 million bu.

Winter Wheat Seedings Down
Winter wheat seedings are expected to be down 800,000 acres to 32.413 million. Hard red winter wheat acreage is pegged at 23 million acres, down 500,000 with farmers planting 5.9 million acres of soft red winter wheat, down 200,000 from a year ago. White winter wheat plantings are estimated at 3.5 million acres, down 100,000.

Is the Slide in Grains All About South America? What Rallied Livestock Tuesday

Tue, 30 Dec 2025 21:26:18 GMT

Grains ended slightly lower on Tuesday with cattle and hogs higher.

Grains Slide Further on Year End Positioning
Grain markets all closed lower for a second day this week on follow through technical selling. Rich Nelson with Allendale, Inc. says there is a general lack of news for the markets so some of the pressure is coming from end of the quarter and end of the year positioning by traders. “So we’ve got two weeks of holidays here. We’re at end of the quarter end of the year. A lot of reasons to take off risk for these markets in general. Along with that we also have some light fundamental news changes.” he says.

South American Weather Favorable
As especially the case for corn and soybeans the markets are also drifting says Nelson due to the lack of weather concerns in South America. Brazil has seen favorable weather and even the dryness in Argentina is starting to ease. Nelson says, “One of the news stories which has been removed, which have been lightly supportive, was this Argentine dryness story. Three weeks in a row, Argentina has seen normal to slightly above normal rain.”

Brazil’s production estimates, at least on soybeans, continue to creep higher and are now are even above 180 MMT. “USDA is not that much lower than everybody else. They are a little bit on the corn side. But for the most part, this market is not finding a rally story from South America. And typically, January and February are the two big months for yield determination for corn and soybean yields down there for sure,” he adds.

Soybean Exports Lagging
Despite more flash exports sales on Tuesday soybeans continued fall. USDA reported daily flash sales of 5.0 million of soybeans to China and 8.5 million bu. to unknown destinations for the 2025-26 marketing year on Tuesday morning. However, soybean exports are still lagging compared to a year ago. “As we head toward this coming USDA report the agency could lower yields but will probably lower exports a little bit here for soybeans and raise domestic crush,” he says.
Currently, he says soybean exports are down 94 million bushels verses USDA’s current projection. Nelson says Allendale project exports down only 30 to 40 million bu. in the January WASDE. He says it’s not because of China but because of other buyers with Brazil soybeans priced below the U.S.

Still, Nelson doesn’t think U.S. soybean prices have to fall much further. “However, on the quite positive side, we feel that these prices have moved quite a bit lower than economic value. And even with our ninety four million bushel cut to exports lately offset by lower yields and also raised domestic crush, we actually would argue like the higher prices are still due in these months ahead for soybeans as well. “

Corn Falls After Testing Resistance
Corn futures were also lower on Tuesday with soybeans and wheat and a higher dollar. However, Nelson says the market went up atnd tested the top side of the trading range on the charts and failed and is now retracing. “We had that attempt here in recent days at trying to break out of of prior highs. We’re not able to do it. We came within just within a nickel of those prior highs.”

Argentina Corn Crop Risk Fading
Nelson says the market may have a difficult time retesting those highs in the short term with the removal of risk with the improved Argentine weather. “It’s actually more important for corn than soybeans, considering the fact that, Brazil’s first crop of corn is relatively small. So I think we can argue that corn probably took the Argentine weather change a little worse than soybeans.”

Corn Yield Lower in WASDE
Nelson says they do find some reasons for higher prices starting with the January WASDE mainly due to a yield cut. “Yes, we’re looking at a yield cut. Maybe exports unchanged or maybe slightly higher on this specific report. So we do look like we do look for this general discussion on ending stocks to drop from roughly2 billion bu. will be down into the high 1.8 billion bu. or low 1.9 billion mark in a month or two,” he explains. That should push prices back to the $4.60 level for March and May.

Wheat Follows Corn and Soybeans Lower
Wheat futures were lower again Tuesday following corn and soybeans and with a higher U.S. dollar index. Nelson says the bearish market mentality is also coming from Russia’s higher wheat export forecast in coming months. He says, “Keep in mind here they were relatively weak exporter in recent months. So we do have that looming bearish issue.”

Plus he says there is a lot of focus on the feed value of wheat in relationship to corn. “As it stands right now, it’s going to take probably higher corn prices to justify a higher wheat prices.”

The wheat market is also numb to the Black Sea tensions. “Whether we have a war the market is still getting Russia and Ukraine exports, and with no war. The market’s still getting, Russia, Ukraine exports,” he adds. This comes even as Russia stepped up attacks on the Odesa port complex.

Live Cattle Futures Stuck, Feeders Breaking Out?
Live and feeder cattle futures were both higher on Tuesday. Still, the live cattle have been unable to take out key resistance on the charts while Nelson says March feeder cattle futures filled the gap area. As a result he thinks the market will stay sideways.

His concern regarding live cattle futures is the drop in wholesale beef prices again last week against the back drop of slightly higher cash prices and negative packer margins. “So far,we do have adequate supplies. Keep in mind here right now, weights finishing weights are running about 3% over last year. This comes on top of the fact that slaughter levels are only down 2% to 4% versus last year, so actual beef production has really not been hit in recent weeks specifically.”

Cash Cattle Trend This Week?
Cash trade averaged $229.33 last week, up $1.36, but on very light volume. Will that trend continue as packers buy for a full kill week next week? Nelson says he’s expecting a mixed trade and packers aren’t likely to be too aggressive. “Maybe light support here for the South. Maybe, lightly negative for the North,” he says.

Lean Hogs Rally Despite Drop in Cash and Cutouts
Lean hog futures were higher Tuesday despite a sharp drop of $1.40 in the lean hog index and lower cutout values. Nelson says it was an impressive move considering the expansion indicated in the Hogs and Pigs Report. “Slaughter rates for the month of December overall, they are holding USDA’s view of a revision for higher supply. So the bear argument has some legs right now.” Yet, futures had the second best close of the uptrend, which Nelson says is positive.