Venezuela

What Rallied Grains and Can the Market Extend Gains? Livestock Fall on Wednesday

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 21:29:39 GMT

Grain markets ended higher on Wednesday with cattle and hogs lower.

Grain Markets See Corrective Buying
Grain markets were higher on Wednesday with gains led by soybeans and wheat. Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk attributes the rally mostly to corrective buying after the selloff to end 2025 and with a $1.40 break from the highs in soybeans.

“We’re essentially back to the midpoint of the range from where we were Christmas Eve. So, you know, the week between Christmas and New Year’s was was pretty rough on the markets, just pretty thin. And the markets were able to get pushed around. So, kind of a reversion to the mean trade, if you will and consolidative. We get down to lower end of the range. We know demand and corn is strong. So, we’re still remained in the range near term,” he adds.

Can the Markets Build on the Rally?
March soybeans closed above the 200-day moving average but Toay says it was not decisively higher and so the market will need to take out the next resistance area to extend the rally. Garrett says he would be more confident of additional buying if the January WASDE and final crop production report weren’t right around the corner.

“I don’t think the market’s going to be to have so much conviction either way around the 200 day, especially with the report on Monday. Beans could see a little bit more follow through here just because I think the pipeline is a little bit tight and I don’t think corn has a story. The market’s aware of where the farmer will sell in corn. Beans are a little bit bigger question.”

Soybeans Also See a Push From Demand
Soybean futures also rallied with continued talk of China buying another eight to ten cargoes or 600,000 MT. However, there is also a push from soybean processors. Toay says a lot of farmers sold soybeans during or shortly after harvest and now that much of that product has been shipped or processed. So, he thinks soybean processors need to restock the pipeline. “It will be interesting to see how much the processor has to bid up to get some of the stored soybeans out of producers hands,” he adds.

China Nearly Done Buying Soybeans?
Rumors have circulated this week about additional purchases by Sinograin, from ten to 14 cargoes for March-May delivery. Some firms have estimated China has bought around 10 MMT of the 12 MMT they committed to. However, Garrett says that will likely shut off soon with Brazil’s crop coming in the next 45 days. “Brazil prices are cheaper than the U.S. so China will soon shift over to South America’s new crop,” he says.

South American Weather Watch
Weather forecasts in Brazil have been largely favorable but there are some emerging issues with dryness in parts of Argentina. Still, private estimates for the Brazilian soybean crop continue to inch higher as StoneX raised production to 177.6 MMT. “I think, ANEC out of Brazil today said that they’re looking at 2026 soybean exports down about 10 million metric ton ton from what they were last year. That’s essentially what Sinograin’s buying out of the out of the U.S. right now,” he states.

Corn Awaits the WASDE
Corn has been in a holding pattern awaiting the Jan. 12 WASDE and final crop production numbers from USDA. At this point, Toay says basis levels don’t suggest the market is anticipating any big changes in ending stocks. “I don’t think you are going to see a yield cut big enough to get anyone too excited, especially considering the fact that you’ve you’ve got a feed residual number that’s six hundred million bushel larger than this point last year. So, there’s some demand baked in there that could potentially offset production cuts.”

Toay says USDA’s 125 million bu. cut to corn carryout last month due to increased exports may be too high. “But given the Brazil export numbers in December, it looks like the USDA cut Brazil exports a little bit too soon because, they only have to export another four million metric ton over two months, to hit the USDA forecast.”

Corn Caught in Tug of War
Corn also closed above the 200-day moving average on the March contract Wednesday. It has been trading sideways between $4.35 and $4.45 as it is caught in a tug of war between end user buying at the bottom end of the trading range and farmer selling at the top. Toay doesn’t see any story emerging that can change that narrative. “So, you know, my concern is beans have rallied a little bit. You’re going to see some crop rotations and some acres shift back to beans but you know, the number I’ve kind of been throwing around is four million acres. If we shift shift four million acres from corn to beans, you’re still at 95 million acres of corn, which is going to be pretty big,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Short Covering
Wheat futures also saw corrective buying and fund short covering as the funds are short more than 130,000 contracts in the three classes combined and wheat just came off of new contract lows in SRW wheat hit on Friday. “I don’t think the wheat market really wants to be too short under $5. The funds are short, probably too short given the geopolitical issues out there perhaps.” Toay discounted reports of weather issues in China and the U.S. to drive some premium into the market.

Fund Rebalancing?
Some of the advisory firms have been talking about buying in the grains tied to fund rebalancing to start a new year, but Toay isn’t in that camp. “The index funds do rebalance. It does kind of favor corn here a little bit, but it’s it’s spread out over five days, and it’s it’s pretty mechanical. I don’t think it’s typically a market mover,” he says.

Cattle Lower on Profit Taking
Both live and feeder cattle futures saw profit taking on Wednesday according to Toay. He says the February live cattle contract hit chart resistance around $237.45 both Monday and Tuesday and that also triggered some technical selling. “This is just some back and fill,” says Toay. Who thinks the market was awaiting cash trade for direction.

Hogs Lower As Well
Lean hog futures were also lower seeing some profit taking and consolidation along with the cattle market. While negotiated cash was up $10 coming into the session the cutout values were down $2.59 which may have also weighed on futures.

Grains Rally on Fund Buying: Crude Oil Eyes Venezuela News

Wed, 07 Jan 2026 16:25:16 GMT

Grains are higher early Wednesday with cattle and hogs lower. Crude oil futures are nearly flat.

Grains Rally on Fund Rebalancing
Grain futures are rallying on Wednesday after failing late in the session on Tuesday. Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says the grain complex may be some rebalancing by hedge and index fund traders to start a new year and with grains under valued. The soybean and wheat markets are also oversold after soybeans lost nearly $1.40 off the November highs and soft red winter wheat futures just hit contract lows last Friday. So these two markets were due for a corrective bounce. Wheat is also the most logical market to see fund buying and short covering asf funds are short in all three classes a combined over 100,000 contracts. He’s not sure, however, how much the funds will want to extend their already long position in soybeans and slightly long position in corn.

China Buying Soybeans?
Newsom says with the way the spreads are acting in the soybean market it looks like there is some commercial buying and of course that could be tied to Chinese purchases. There has been rumors of Sinograin buying 10 to 14 cargoes or 25 million bu for March-May delivery to start the week. At least a portion of that was confirmed by flash sales on Tuesday. USDA corrected the sale late in the afternoon to include 5.0 million bu. to China and the balance (7.6 million bu.) to unknown for a total of 12.6 million bu. Trade estimates put China’s total purchases at 10 MMT of the 12 MMT they agreed to.

Newsom says this is seasonally when China would buy some of its secondary needs from the U.S. to bridge to the harvest of the soybean crop in Brazil. “As soon as the combines start to roll in South America it is very likely this buying will dry up,” he says.

China Retaliation Coming??
Newsom points out that even though China’s purchases are getting close to 12 MMT that is only half of what they purchased last year. He is also concerned with the slow pace of shipments to China as he thinks it is possible they could cancel those soybean purchases as soon as they are sure they will have the needed supplies from South America. The other concern is whether or not China will eventually retaliate against the U.S. for intervening in Venezuela as that could come in the form of soybean cancellations as well.

U.S. to Sell Venezuelan Oil
Speaking of Venezuela the U.S. announced it will be selling from 30 to 50 million barrels of Venezuelan crude oil and splitting the proceeds between the two countries. Newsom sees this as a power play by the administration with long term implications for the crude oil market. He thinks this will add to the world oil glut and continue to pressure prices.

Cattle Futures See Profit Taking
Live and feeder cattle futures are lower on Wednesday after feeders made new highs for the move on Tuesday. Newsom says this is most likely profit taking as the market awaits cash trade for direction. He says the key will be whether or not cash can continue to pull the futures up to the record highs from October. Right now he sees no signals that isn’t possible.

Soybeans Fade China Buys: Corn, Wheat Fail Pre-WASDE

Tue, 06 Jan 2026 21:26:55 GMT

Grains ended mostly lower on Tuesday, with cattle higher and lean hogs mixed.

Soybeans Fade China Buys
Soybeans were lower fading a 336,000 MT or 12.3 million bu. flash export sale of U.S. soybeans to China for 2025-26. Late in the afternoon USDA corrected this sale to 136,000 MT or 5.0 millon bu. to and 206,700 MT or 7.6 million bu. to unknown destinations. This confirmed at least part of the rumored 10 to 14 cargoes purchased by Sinograin on Monday.

Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says soybeans sold off in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact,” reaction. There was also talk of additional China buys on Tuesday but that didn’t hold the market together either. He estimates China’s total purchases are now at 10 MMT on the low side. “There’s some people thinking they’re closer to 12 MMT. Remember, though, we kind of missed the the mark just a little bit. It was supposed to be 12 million tons in calendar year 2025. And I think that’s why the market sold off nearly $1.40 from the November highs into the end of the year,” he explains.

Soybeans Hit Chart Resistance
Nellinger says March soybeans also hit chart resistance a the 200-day moving average and could not get above that level so some profit taking ensued.

Soybean Traders Cautious Ahead of WASDE
Soybean traders are also afraid to buy ahead of the big Jan. 12 WASDE report in case there are any surprises. While Nellinger and the market expect a slight yield cut, the fear is that could easily be offset by lower exports. Export inspections or shipments are running 45% behind last year or nearly 500 million bu. Export sales are also running behind last year by nearly 31%, even with China sales included.

He says, “So far, the USDA has been a little bit slow to want to adjust exports lower, maybe with the understanding that there was some sort of a Chinese agreement and they’re going to be a big purchaser of U.S. beans in the 2026 calendar year. So, I’m not sure. I think they’re probably close on yields within a half a bushel. If they’re not, if it’s one bushel or more higher or lower, that’s obviously going to be a shock to the market.” Still, he’s not sure if USDA will make a change on exports but if they cut exports and don’t cut yields it could be bearish.

Soybeans Traders Concerned About Venezuela Development
Nellinger says there is additional fear tied to the developments in Venezuela as China has invested in that country’s energy industry and has been aligning with Latin American countries. So the U.S. assistance to promote new leadership could possibly spark some retaliation from China. “This Venezuelan situation may have been more of a kind of shot across the bow to the Chinese as much as it was trying to arrest a potential dictator and get drug flow stopped coming into the United States,” he explains. He says that could mean if tensions worsen between the two countries they could possibly cancel or not follow through on the promises they made for 2026.

South American Weather
Weather in Brazil has also been favorable for soybean development which has been a headwind for the soybean market. “Brazil has a record crop coming and private estimates keep increasing the crop. I think a 181 MMT soybean crop in Brazil is starting to be a realistic number,” according to Nellinger.

Argentina has some dry areas but so far it hasn’t resulted in yield cuts on the corn or soybean crop. In fact, Dr. Michael Cordonnier raised Argentina corn production 2 MMT. “It’s early enough and it’s it hasn’t been a long enough developing situation down there just yet to be real real supportive,” he adds.

Corn Hits 200-Day Moving Average
March corn futures were also unable to take out the 200-day moving average and that has been the case for several weeks. Nellinger says the corn market rallies continue to get capped, especially by wheat. “Corn tries to rally wheat, holds it back. Corn tries to rally beans today, reversed first and kind of drug corn off the highs,” he says. And Nellinger isn’t confident the corn market will get any help from USDA to move corn above this chart area.

Corn Market Sees Report Positioning
The corn market has been buying time waiting for the Jan. 12 WASDE report which has also contributed to the sideways pattern. Corn market participants have been waiting to see if USDA cuts yield but Nellinger says it likely the agency could leave yield around the 186 bu. per acre mark. “That’s even though I believe in my heart that the yield should be cut several bushels.” he adds.

He says average trade guesses haven’t been released but he thinks the trade will also come in close to 186 bu. on yield. “My sense is that there’s not many people thinking they’re going to cut much off of 186. I think if they went down to 182, 181, certainly below 181, I think would be a big bullish shock because I don’t think there’s many people out there that believe they will do that.”

Wheat Market Drifts Lower
The wheat market was also mostly lower on the close and saw spillover from the late selloff in the row crop markets. However, Nellinger says the wheat futures face headwinds from huge global supplies and record crops in many key producing countries. Plus, the funds have been back extending their short position in all three classes of wheat. “The one thing that could get funds to cover shorts in a hurry is a weather problem. He says, “The crop went into dormancy early. A lot of cold weather, snow on top of that. And now some of that crop is out of dormancy with exceptionally warm temperatures. So if we’d see a cold snap here in January, February, really bitter cold across the plains, that could really be something that wakes the market up and causes some short covering. Otherwise, unfortunately, we’re stuck in the mud.”

Feeders Make For the Move Highs
Live and feeder cattle futures closed higher on Tuesday with feeders making more new highs for the move. February live cattle hit chart resistance at yesterday’s high for a second day and retraced under that level. However, Nellinger thinks as long as feeders continue to lead and tfutures will eventually push into new record highs pulling live cattle along.

“I would not have thought that was possible a month ago but I think feeders can lead live cattle. To me it’s all about cash feeder market. You look at the sale barn reports every day. They’re just screaming higher. So I don’t know why that would change in the near term. I think that there’s a chance that feeders push into new all time highs.”

Lean Hog Futures End Mixed
Lean hogs ended mixed after a lower start, once again showing their resilience. After closing higher Monday the market saw some profit taking and hedge pressure initially but powered back with the help of the cattle market. Nellinger says the hogs have also seen fund buying and so that combination is likely to be supportive. However, with summer months above the $100 mark he advises producers to start considering some hedging opportunities.

Grains Rally on Corrective Buying, China Biz, Venezuela News: Livestock Post Gains

Mon, 05 Jan 2026 21:30:45 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended mostly higher on Monday.

Soybeans Lead Gains on Corrective Buying
Soybean futures saw double digit gains pulling up corn and wheat futures on Monday. After lower weekly closes and soybeans correcting nearly $1.40 off the November highs the market was oversold and due for a bounce says Chuck Shelby of Risk Management Commodities, a division of Zaner Ag Hedge. Corn and wheat also posted lower weekly closes and saw some corrective buying and short covering.

Venezuela News Brings Surprise Risk On, Commodity Wide Buying
Buying interest across the grain, livestock and outside market complex was driven by a risk-on attitude in global markets. It was a bit of surprise as it followed news over the weekend the U.S. had captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro. The agricultural markets, equities and other assets that are typically sensitive to geopolitical shocks reacted positively. Shelby says the commodity wide buying was tied to ideas of improved demand, plus the market was adding geopolitical premium.

“Venezuela used to be a very prosperous country. We did a lot of trading with them. The uncertainty in the world with the leadership that was there you know, the drug problem and all that. So as we go forward, I think, all the markets look at that as a positive situation going forward. And it’s going to be a difficult challenge there to straighten things out. But the way they were going and all the problems they were having, the way the country had deteriorated, I think the world looked at this as a good thing in the long run.” He adds the energy sector, if rebuilt, will also be positive longer term.

China Buying Rumors
Soybeans got a boost from market chatter that China, Specifically Sinograin, was in the market for 10 cargoes of U.S. soybeans. This was offset by concerns that the action of the U.S. government in Venezuela may have angered China. “After such a huge correction in the bean market, I don’t think it takes much in the way of rumors to see the market react the way it did. The question becomes, is China irritated or upset with the United States action in Venezuela? There’s two ways you could look at that. Will they retaliate some or make some different tariff moves or will they continue to buy as they agreed to?” Shelby thinks the move solidifies the U.S. trade position with Beijing as its seen as a signal of strength.

Weather Premium
Corn and soybeans may have also been adding a bit of weather premium as the forecast looks dry in Argentina. Shelby says that could trim some yield in the country. However, Brazil has been fairly routine showers and is showing no threat to the crop at this point. Shelby thinks its too early for a South America weather rally. “Your real concerns currently are in Argentina, which is one of the world’s bigger corn producers. So maybe a little bit bigger impact on corn but we’re entering into the growing season where it becomes critical whether it rains or not. So as each week as we go forward in January the weather forecast there is going to be a market factor.”

Corn Recovers with Soybeans, Still Range Bound
Corn saw spillover buying with the rally in soybeans and some light spillover from the wheat market. However, corn is still in a sideways pattern and is likely to remain stuck until it gets some positive news from the January WASDE. Shelby says corn will need a yield cut of more than three bushels per acre to move the market and create a rally because of the possibility that USDA will lower feed and residual to offset a cut in corn yield. “I think 182 would certainly give the market a reason to break above the 200 day moving average and give us a little uptrend as we move into February.”

Wheat Futures Follow Corn and Soybeans
Wheat futures were also higher following the rally and corrective buying in corn and soybeans. Plus the market was also oversold after hitting new contract lows in March soft red winter wheat on Friday and that brought some short covering into the complex. “Holding above the $5 level is pretty critical but the market has dropped back 60 to 70-cents so it’s just kind of following along.” However, he thinks the sleeper is the war in Ukraine and if Russia continues to attack their grain infrastructure and disrupt exports. “Russia continues to push cheap wheat in the world to finance the war. So, wheat is struggling, but holding above five dollars,” he says.

New Year, New Money?
With the start of a new year the buying seen in the ag markets could also be tied to portfolio reallocation. Shelby says grains are under valued compared to commodities like precious metals and could be ripe for some buying. He thinks there was some evidence of that Monday “I think you saw some index fund rebalancing. If you were an investment fund and you looked out there and you saw something that was undervalued like grains have been for several years it may look like an opportunity,” he explains.

Cattle Futures Mostly Higher
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher except for Feb. live cattle after making some new highs for the move. Shelby says the market has been pushed by strong cash and additional New World Screwworm cases in Mexico. However, to continue to rally the market will also need evidence of strong consumer demand and that includes higher boxed beef prices.

“The question I have going forward in the next month or six weeks is what kind of demand are we going to see? Is demand good enough to hold us up here? We know supplies are tight. We know we’re going to get some more imports from South America eventually. So I think the cattle markets kind of fair value and kind of maybe in a in a sideways trading range for a while,” he adds.

Lean Hog Futures See Strong Gains
Lean hog futures hit their highest levels since mid-October, with the summer months above the $100 mark. This comes despite a softening lean hog index which was down $.41 coming into the session and with the futures at a premium. However, Shelby says hog futures got some spillover from the rally in cattle and the market is looking ahead with consumers gearing up for a big summer of grilling.

“When you look out there at the summer months at $103 to $105 its a really strong price. So I think it was just more buying today, money flow into that market. However, we’re going to have a 250 year celebration, fourth of July. So I think maybe market’s looking ahead as some really good demand,” he adds.

Biden Administration Clears Chevron to Produce, Export Venezuelan Oil

Mon, 28 Nov 2022 21:26:07 GMT

The Biden administration Saturday announced it would allow Chevron to produce and export Venezuelan oil after the country agreed to restart talks with opposition groups.

A senior Biden administration official insisted the move was not aimed at addressing oil market pressures.

“This action is not being taken in response to energy prices, this is a limited license,” the official said. “As we have said in the past, this is about the regime taking the steps needed to support the restoration of democracy in Venezuela.”

The official said much of the crude that would be produced and exported under the license would probably have reached the market anyway via the black market.

The license would still bar Venezuela’s PdVSA, the state-owned oil company, from receiving any profits from the oil sales in the joint venture with Chevron.

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