Vietnam

Cattle Extend Gains On Better Cash News: Grains Rally on China Deal or Short Covering?

Thu, 03 Jul 2025 14:44:22 GMT

Cattle are higher early Thursday as well as the grain markets, with lean hogs mostly lower.

Cattle Extend Gains on Better Cash News

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says cattle futures are trading higher building on Wednesday’s big reversal which was initially triggered by trade news but then better than expected cash trade added to the rally.

Varilek says some cash trade Thursday morning has been reported at $225, which steady to slightly better than last week’s weighted average and above expectations. That was true with Northern trade at $230 to $232.

The bulk of Northern dressed trade this week has been at $368 to $370, steady to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages. Southern live deals on Wednesday were at $222 to $224, also steady to $2 lower than last week’s weighted averages. A little more light trade will likely take place at some point today.

Cattle futures were lower early Wednesday still reacting to news the border would be gradually reopened to Mexican imports starting July 7.

So, does the strength in the futures mean the market has priced that news in?

Varilek isn’t confident that’s the case as there is still uncertainty regarding how many cattle will be coming across the border.

Other positive news includes, a strike has been avoided at the Amarillo, Texas Tyson Foods Beef Processing Plant. Union members voted yesterday, and 93% of the voters approved a new contract, that includes a wage increase, more paid time off, expanded retirement benefits, ratification of bonuses and health insurance benefits that begin when hired.

Lean Hogs Slide with Lower Cutouts and LHI

Lean hog futures are lower early with another $1.55 drop in the pork cutouts and the Lean Hog Index was also down $.77 at $110.22. Plus weekly exports were disappointing at only 27,100 MT this morning.

However, Varilek thinks the market will be well supported by the tighter numbers moving forward associated with disease and on hopes for more trade with China.

Grains Continue Rally on China Hopes or Just Short Covering?

Grains are mostly higher with corn and soybeans extending some nice gains on Wednesday.

The rally came on the heels of news of a trade deal with Vietnam but also speculation President Trump will be making an announcement of a China deal at the rally at the Iowa State Fairgrounds this evening. President has hinted he was going to be releasing some positive news for farmers.

However, Varilek thinks the grain markets are also seeing short covering or short profit taking heading into the holiday and a three day weekend, especially after corn made new contract lows and soybeans made new lows for the move on Tuesday and were oversold.

Exports this morning were at 21.0 million bu. for corn old crop and 37 million bu. new crop, soybeans at 17 million bu. old and 8.8 million new, with wheat at a strong 21.5 million bu.

Private exporters also reported flash sales of 5.9 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations for 2024-25, 8.3 million bu. of soybeans to unknown for 2024/25. Plus, 195,000 metric tons of soybean meal to unknown. 45,000 MT for 2024/25 marketing year and 150,000 MT for 2025/2026.

Grains Rally on Vietnam and Possible China Trade Deal, Technical Buying: Can the Markets Build on It?

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:21:47 GMT

Grain and livestock all end in the green on Wednesday.

Grain Markets Get a Boost From the Vietnam Trade Deal

Oliver Sloup, Blue Line Futures, says it was a combination of short covering and technical buying heading into a long holiday weekend but the announcement of a trade deal with Vietnam also provided a spark for the grains.

“I think it was probably a combination of the long weekend and trade deal with Vietnam, potentially some more trade news coming down the pipe. I know President Trump is expected to speak in Iowa on Thursday, so potentially there’s more news to come. That’s just speculation, but ahead of a long weekend, I don’t know that anybody wants to be caught short if new news does start to develop, whether it be with trade or with weather,” he says.

He says the set up started on Monday when the USDA Reports came in so close to estimates the market quickly turned its attention to weather and went looking for a story.

Corn futures just hit contract lows on Tuesday and so that market was oversold and due for a bounce and with funds pushing the short side of the market they took some profits.

However, Sloup says corn is at a critical technical juncture heading into the weekend as its running up into major overhead resistance on the charts.

“We kind of got back to some of these technical levels that are going to be big big lines in the sand to keep an eye on into next week’s trade looking at the December corn contract $4.33 to $4.35 that was old support from March, April and May. We broke down below there just a few weeks ago that’s now going to act as significant resistance so for this market to really get some legs and build on the rally that we saw on Wednesday’s trade we need to see consecutive closes out above there and potentially that’s first and short covering it if we can do that,” he explains.

Soybeans Surge With Products

Soybeans also gains of 20 to 24 cents on the heels of the rally in both soybean oil and soybean meal but after bouncing off support on Tuesday.

Sloup says November soybeans also made new lows for the move on Tuesday but held those support areas around $10.15 which he says was impressive.

After the big rally on Wednesday soybeans are running into several layers of chart resistance.

“You’ve got the 20, 50, 100, and 200 days, all coming in between $10.31 and $10.38. And that’s really kind of flat lined over the course of the last month or so, creating a bit of a short -term inflection point.”

But if the market can get above these levels it could rally to $10.65 to $10.70 he adds.

The funds are not short in the soybean market like they are in corn and wheat, so to get funds to continue to buy it may take more bullish news on the weather or trade front.

Wheat Also Sees Short Covering

Again Sloup says short covering pushed the wheat market on Wednesday as funds have been short in the wheat complex for the last three years.

“We got the 50 and the 20-day moving averages $5.52 to $5.56 and that’s September Chicago contract. Consecutive closes out above there and you’re looking at upward targets of $5.70 and potentially out above $6 from there. But again, a lot of this is going to be needed to get legs,” says Sloup.

However, to get above these levels the market will need a U.S. or global weather story.

Cattle Futures Reverse Higher

Cattle futures opened lower still reacting to the phased reopening of the border to Mexican cattle imports, but reversed after the news of the Vietnam trade deal.

Some steady to weak cash trade developed and with futures trading at a discount that may have brought some buying interest in as well.

In the North, light trade developed in Nebraska with dressed deals marked at $368 to $370, steady to $2 than last week. Delivery 7/14 or 7/21. Live sales at $230-$232, steady. In the South live sales in Kansas are at $224, with Texas at $222-$224 steady to lower than last week’s weight averages.

Despite the pop, Sloup isn’t sure the news of the border reopening is all priced into at least the feeder cattle futures yet.

Live cattle have had a higher monthly close for nine out of 10 months but he thinks the tops may be in that market as well.

Lean Hogs Bounce on Vietnam News, but is the Top in Seasonally?

Lean hog futures also reversed higher in reaction to the Vietnam trade news, as a deal could be beneficial for pork exports.

But Sloup says the market is still under the recent contract highs and the top may be in from a seasonal standpoint. Plus, futures have failed to break above resistance.

“We’ve been below the 20-day moving average since April 15, so we have resistance at $110, support at $104.37, $105,32. Those were the old highs from February to May, as well as the 50 day moving average. So we’re kind of right in the middle of a pocket there. If $105, $104 gives way, I think you could start to see some additional long liquidation from funds,” he says.

Funds had taken their net long position from about 36 ,000 on April 8 to a new record of close to 135,000 last week but Sloup says if these support areas give way the market could see weakness continue in next week’s trade.

The one caveat is deferred contracts could be supported by disease issues.

Trade Dominance or Trade Domino? Trump Announces Trade Deal with Vietnam

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 19:10:44 GMT

Less than a week before the Trump administration’s 90-day pause on many reciprocal tariffs with several countries is set to expire, President Donald Trump announced a trade deal with Vietnam on Wednesday. The deal, according to Trump, allows the U.S. “total access” to Vietnam’s markets with a zero tariff on U.S. products exported to Vietnam.

A deal with Vietnam could benefit U.S. commodities that face higher tariffs, including fruits, nuts, pork and beef exports.

The president made the announcement on his Truth Social site, saying Vietnam will pay the U.S. a 20% tariff on any goods sent into the U.S. and a 40% tariff on any goods that originate in another country and then are transferred to Vietnam before coming to the U.S.

🚨 pic.twitter.com/i35oMvbEvW
— Rapid Response 47 (@RapidResponse47) July 2, 2025

When trade talks started with Vietnam last month, Vietnamese officials had pledged to boost purchases of American goods, including farm products and energy. However, no specific trade volumes were announced with the trade deal.

What’s the potential for agriculture? Dan Basse, founder and president of AgResource Company, says this could help gain greater access for fruits, nuts and horticulture products, which have tariffs ranging from 15% to 20%, versus corn, soybeans and soybean meal.

“In the case of corn and soybeans and meal and wheat, we’re talking about tariffs today that are 1% to 2%, that’ll go to zero, so it’s something, don’t get me wrong, it’s 5¢ or 10¢ in a bushel of corn, maybe 7¢ to 12¢ on beans, but it is not the panacea that’s going to get a lot of Vietnamese demand going forward,” Basse says.

The trade deal came as a bit of a surprise on Wednesday. Earlier this week, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said earlier this week that while the focus of the administration is getting the One Big Beautiful Bill across the finish line this week, that focus shifts back to trade next week. Bessent warned countries could be notified of sharply higher tariffs as a deadline approaches.

Is this trade deal the start of a domino of trade deals that could fall ahead of next week’s deadline? It’s possible, but Stand Grain’s Joe Vaclavik says many more are needed to shift the sentiment in the commodity market to a bullish tone.

“Get a trade deal with China that mirrors Phase One, that includes large purchase agreements, then it’s a game changer,” Vaclavik says. “But anything less than that, as of right now, I don’t think is going be a market mover or a game changer from a supply and demand standpoint.”

Vaclavik agrees with Basse, in that Vietnam alone isn’t a huge demand story for corn and soybeans.

“I think you’re going to see a lot of these announcements like with Vietnam where it sounds great, but Vietnam consumed 16 million metric tons of corn last year. That’s not enough to really put them on the map as something that’s going to move the market. You need a China, a country who consumes 300 million metric tons of corn per year to come in and agree to agree and also agree to buy. And that’s how you move the needle.”

Push for More Protein?

Protein exports are also an area of opportunity. U.S. dairy exports have shown strong growth into Vietnam, with increases in nonfat dry milk powder, whey, and lactose.

As for meat exports, figures from the U.S. Meat Export Federation (USMEF) show shipments to Vietnam in 2024 included:

5,052 metric tons of beef and beef variety meat valued at $43 million
and 4,662 metric tons of pork and variety meat with a value of $10 million.

The U.S. current ranks fifth in top exporters to Vietnam, but it’s key to note the U.S. is the largest trading partner with Vietnam that does not have a Free Trade Agreement (FTA). With talks of tariff reductions, it could hep make U.S. pork more competitively priced compared to big competitors like Brazil, the European Union and Canada. Those countries currently have duty-free access to Vietnam.

The current tariff rates vary by product, including:

Chilled beef carcass/ ½ carcass: 30%
Chilled beef bone-in: 20%
Chilled beef boneless: 14%,
Frozen beef bone-in/frozen carcass 20%
Frozen boneless beef: 14%
Chilled pork: 22%
Frozen pork: 10%
Offal: 8%.

Fact sheet on meat exports to Vietnam

(USMEF )

Vietnam’s Growing Population

Farm Journal’s Michelle Rook visited Vietnam earlier this year and saw firsthand the potential growth. Vietnam has a 100 million people and a growing middle class looking to add protein to their diet. With limited soybean crushing capacity, the country currently depends on soybean meal imports for their livestock and aquaculture feed needs.

She reports the country’s soy processing industry is small with only four plants, which import 2 million tons of soybeans annually, including from the U.S. According to Rook’s reporting, that could be an area where soybean exports could grow, fueling Vietnam’s growing aquaculture and livestock production.

You can read and watch Rook’s in-depth reporting here .

Vietnam's Growing Middle Class and Need for Protein Provide Opportunities for U.S. Soybean Meal Exports

Tue, 29 Apr 2025 21:44:37 GMT

Vietnam’s trade surplus to the U.S. had President Trump originally proposing reciprocal tariffs of 46%. However, the two countries are inching close to a trade deal that could open the door to more U.S. exports.

South Dakota farmers were recently on a trade mission to Vietnam and saw first hand the country’s growing need for protein and the opportunity to grow exports.

Vietnam’s population of 102 million people includes a young and growing middle class. The average consumer is 30 years old. While the median income per person is low, it’s improving, and so is their diet.

Rice and soy foods are a big part of the Vietnam culture. A quarter of the soybeans imported are food grade used by companies such as Ichiban, a leading producer of tofu and soy milk. Ichiban uses 100% U.S. soybeans.

Vietnam consumers are also adding more animal protein to their diet, according to Mike McCranie, vice chair of the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

“Vietnam is one of those countries that actually has a lot of pork already in their diet —they really like their pork,” he says.

Vietnam is a leading pork producer with 27.5 million hogs in 2024, an 85% recovery from pre-African Swine Fever levels, after a shift to integrated production.

“Approximately 80% of farms are integrated and 20% are backyard farms.” says Thibaut Vitre, industrial operations director of feed and pet food company Vienovo Vietnam.

Vietnam also raises 550 million chickens, 18 billion eggs and 84 million ducks annually, but they also import poultry.

“The U.S. is No. 1 market share for poultry imported to Vietnam at a value of $181 million U.S. dollars,” says Dang Thi Dong Phuong, with the USA Poultry and Egg Export Council.

The country is also home to 60 million beef cattle and is the world’s 4th largest seafood producer and exporter.

“We export to around 170 countries,” says To Thi Tuong Lan, deputy general secretary, Vietnam Association of Seafood Exporters and Producers. “The value in total seafood from Vietnam is around $10 billion U.S. dollars per year.”

The U.S. accounts for 20% of Vietnam’s seafood exports with shrimp holding the top spot.

“Shrimp is about 40%, 45% based on different years,” says Ha Tran Ngoc, sourcing manager, BioMar Viet Uc. “For example, in 2022, it was about $4.5 billion.

That’s followed by catfish, at a $2 billion export value annually.

About a third of the seafood is still wild caught with the balance raised on farms such as Co May, which uses U.S. soy in their feed ration because it’s a cheaper and more sustainable protein.

“Fish meal is very expensive in formulation, so people prefer to use more soybean meal,” Ha Tran Ngoc says.

Soybean meal has become a total replacement of fish meal in a lot of cases, McCranie adds, and it responds as good as, and in some cases better than, their other diets.

This all adds up to a growing feed market of 25 million metric tons annually. However, the soy processing industry is small with only four plants that import 2 million tons of soybeans annually, some of which is from the U.S.

“The capacity of this plant is 500 tons per day on a soybean seed-crushing basis,” says Hemant Bansal, general director of soy processor Sethia Hemraj. “So far, whatever beans we’ve procured, they’re 100% from U.S.”

With limited crushing capacity, Vietnam currently depends on soybean meal imports for their growing protein sector.

“On average, every year Vietnam imports about 5.7 to 5.9 million metric tons of soybean meal from all origins,” says My Hanh Tran, Vietnam country representative with the U.S. Soybean Export Council.

But currently, the U.S. only has 16% share of that market.

“There’s a lot of potential for growth in Vietnam, and we’re trying to get into their market with with some high-quality soybean meal and also soybeans.” says David Struck, a farmer from Wolsey, S.D.

The drive to grow meal exports is a result of the 30% expansion of the soy processing industry in the Midwest to crush for oil for biofuels.

“We’re crushing for the oil now in the United States so the meal supply is going to get larger,” Struck says.

U.S. soybean meal exports are on the rise. This year exports are projected at nearly 16 million metric tons, but volume could double quickly, according to Scott Ritzman, Ritzman Consulting.

“If all the crushed plants that were announced actually come to fruition, we might be at a 22 to 23 million metric ton market,” he says.

The farmer delegation told Vietnam buyers the meal surplus will drive U.S. prices down compared with South America. The other selling points of U.S. meal include lower freight cost, consistency, sustainability and nutritional value.

There is room to grow and that’s why U.S and South Dakota farmers want to build strong relationships with their customers through trade missions.

“I think it’s great for us as producers and board members to go out and shake those people’s hands and say thank you and let’s grow together because when they make money, we make money,” says Derrick Scott, a Geddes, S.D., farmer.

Vietnam Exporters Are Concerned About Tariffs: Can Trade With the U.S. Be Reciprocal?

Fri, 18 Apr 2025 21:04:38 GMT

President Donald Trump’s tariff plan has resulted in nearly 70 countries in talks with the U.S. to avert tariffs, including Vietnam, which was one of the first to reach out to negotiate.

In 2024, Vietnam ran a trade surplus of $124 billion to the U.S., which is why the country is being targeted for tariffs. President Trump’s proposed 46% reciprocal tariffs on Vietnam have been delayed and the country is negotiating in hopes of getting duties down to 22% to 28%.

On a trade mission to Vietnam, South Dakota soybean farmers and trade officials learned more about the trade imbalance.

“Vietnam is the third largest trade deficit for exporting countries, so it’s an issue,” says Rachael Weiland, director of business engagement, South Dakota Trade.

Tariffs are a huge concern for exporters in Vietnam who want to avoid U.S. reciprocal tariffs. Hemant Bansal, general director, Sethia Hemraj, a soy processing company in Vietnam, says they need certainty.

“It’s not only about tariffs — it’s more about the uncertain environment, and in that kind of environment our crushers and our traders try to keep away from the market until things settle down,” Hemraj says.

This price volatility also makes it difficult for businesses to plan.

“When there is uncertainty, some days the price increases 4%, some days it drops 5%, that kind of environment is not good for trade,” he says.

As South Dakota farmers such as Tanner Hento found out, the uncertainty of tariffs has already caused some Vietnam businesses to switch the origin of their purchases.

“People are happy to have U.S. soy, they’re impressed with the quality, but at the end of the day, economics do kick in and we’re hearing a lot about how the tariffs are negating our ability to have free trade,” Hento says.

Hento, who serves on the South Dakota Soybean Association, says tariffs and trade issues make the U.S. an unreliable supplier, potentially losing more global market share.

“I think South America looks at this like they’re increasing their trade without having to do anything,” he adds.

One of hardest hit sectors could be seafood exporters as the U.S. accounts for 20% of their business. However, Vietnam ag businesses hope the two countries can strike a deal.

“We want to find out the way to use more of the U.S. soybean meal,” says Ha Tran Ngoc, sourcing manager for BioMar Viet Uc, which manufactures livestock and aquaculture feed. “Yes, we want to export the seafood, shrimp and more fish to the U.S., and we want to use U.S. soybean meal for aqua feed.”

With a medium income of only $4,500 in Vietnam, trade officials on the trip say reciprocal tariffs and trade might be hard to achieve.

“I think the difference is that Vietnam is not apples to apples with some of the other countries we’re dealing with. This is a poorer country,” Weiland explains. “The amount of products we’re able to bring in differs, so it’s going to be harder to close that gap.”

Still, she says the hope is tariffs are a short-term pain for long-term gain.

"[President Trump’s tariffs are] a tactic to negotiate better trade deals, and we hope it’s something that will come to fruition. It just depends on what each country is going to bring to the table,” Weiland adds.

U.S. Rejects Vietnam’s Bid for ‘Market Economy’ Status in Blow to Trade Ties

Tue, 06 Aug 2024 13:00:01 GMT

The U.S. rejected Vietnam’s bid for ‘market economy’ status in blow to trade ties. The classification would have boosted exports and reduced tariffs on goods from country that is rising supply chain alternative to China.

The U.S. Department of Commerce cited several reasons for maintaining Vietnam’s classification as a “non-market economy” (NME):
• State intervention: Despite economic reforms, the U.S. Commerce Department noted that there is still extensive government involvement in Vietnam’s economy. This includes control over pricing, currency, and trade practices, which distort market prices and costs.
• Anti-dumping concerns: The NME status allows the U.S. to use prices and costs from third countries to calculate anti-dumping duties on Vietnamese imports. This practice is used to counteract what the U.S. sees as unfair trade advantages stemming from Vietnam’s economic structure.

The Decision has Several Consequences:

• Tariffs and duties: Without market economy status, Vietnamese goods are subject to higher anti-dumping duties, making them less competitive in the U.S. market.
• Investor uncertainty: The rejection introduces uncertainty for foreign investors, potentially impacting foreign direct investment (FDI) in Vietnam.
• Negotiation power: Vietnam may find it challenging to negotiate favorable tariff rates and trade terms with the U.S.

The U.S. remains cautious about Vietnam’s economic practices and the potential for Chinese companies to use Vietnam as a backdoor to circumvent U.S. tariffs.

The Vietnamese government expressed regret over the decision, highlighting the positive economic reforms and policy commitments it has made. Vietnam’s Ministry of Industry and Trade argued that the upgrade would have been a fair recognition of these efforts.

Pacific Nations Agree to Save TPP Trade Pact

Thu, 19 Nov 2020 01:35:28 GMT

(Bloomberg) -- The 11 remaining members of a Pacific trade pact abandoned by U.S. President Donald Trump have reached a deal on a revised agreement, with the nations to work toward signing the deal by early March, according to Singapore’s government.

Senior officials resolved outstanding issues, finalized the list of suspended provisions and completed the legal verification of the agreement, concluding negotiations on what has been renamed the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership, Singapore’s trade ministry said Tuesday in a statement.

The deal was reached after two days of talks in Tokyo, and came just hours after Trump imposed tariffs on imported solar panels and washing machines -- his first major move to level what he says is a global playing field tilted against U.S. companies. The whole agreement looked like it might collapse after contentious negotiations in November, when Canada’s participation was thrown into doubt.

Japan’s Economy Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said Canada has agreed to work toward approving the deal, and he believed they would follow through on that.

“Today, Canada and the 10 other remaining members of the Trans-Pacific Partnership concluded discussions in Tokyo, Japan, on a new Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership,” Joe Pickerill, director of communications for Canadian Trade Minister Francois-Philippe Champagne, said Tuesday in an email.

The agreement comes at a pivotal time for Canada, the second-largest economy in the pact after Trump quit. The country is in the midst of talks to update the North American Free Trade Agreement, the trilateral accord with the U.S. and Mexico that Trump is also threatening to quit. Part of the Canadian response to U.S. Nafta threats has been to push to expand trade ties elsewhere, including Asia.

The original Trans Pacific Partnership, which would have covered 40 percent of the global economy, was seen as a guarantee of U.S. involvement in Asia and a counterweight to Chinese clout -- an idea thrown into disarray when Trump withdrew in one of his first acts as president. Japan has led a scramble to keep the deal alive, with the hope of enticing the U.S. to return at a later date.

“The CPTPP will enhance trade among countries in the Asia-Pacific, resulting in more seamless flows of goods, services, and investment regionally,” Singaporean Trade Minister Lim Hng Kiang was quoted as saying.

Of the four remaining issues left after the talks in Vietnam in November, the sections of the deal Brunei and Malaysia had a problem with will be frozen, Motegi said. Matters involving Vietnam’s labor rights and Canada’s cultural goods will be dealt with in side letters, which each country agreed to sign separately to the CPTPP deal, he said.

Pickerill said Canada achieved “a significant outcome on culture and an improved arrangement on autos with Japan along with the suspension of many IP provisions of interest to Canadian stakeholders,” referring to intellectual property provisions.

The following countries make up the agreement: Australia, Brunei, Canada, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore and Vietnam.

©2018 Bloomberg L.P.