Weather - General

‘We Need Rain’: Dry Fields Stall Corn Planting

Wed, 13 May 2026 21:40:40 GMT

Planting season sounds different across central Kansas this year. By mid-May, planters usually run full tilt, pushing long days and short nights as growers race to get corn, soybeans, and grain sorghum into the ground. Instead, silence hangs over many fields. Drought-stressed soils, soaring fertilizer costs, and mounting economic pressures have kept many farmers from even starting, according to Matt Splitter.

“We’ve had 1.2 to 1.5 inches of rain this year during a window where we should be at 28 inches,” says Splitter, who farms in the I-35 corridor between Kansas City and Wichita. “It is dry. I can’t even find the right words for how dry it is.”

The data backs up his frustration. Approximately 65% of topsoil moisture in Kansas is currently rated as “short” or “very short,” according to the May 11 Crop Progress & Condition Report.

#DroughtMonitor 5/12: Drought worsened in large parts of the Northwest and Plains. Also the Midwest and Mid-Atlantic.

Improvements in AZ, CO, and the Southeast.

Mixed for WY, S. Plains, South, Northeast.#Drought2026’s Footprint: 51.3% of the USAhttps://t.co/mljsjQE3B9 @NOAA pic.twitter.com/ONOWe9IEfP
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) May 14, 2026

On a recent school run, Splitter looked across empty fields that would typically be full of machinery.

“I took the kids to school and didn’t see one machine in a field — no tillage, no applications, no planting,” he told Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk. “Planting progress here is non-existent.”

Personally, Splitter gambled early on planting his corn, hoping the scant moisture near the soil surface would be enough to get a stand.

“We went early, thinking we were probably making the wrong decision,” he says. “We had just enough moisture for germination. The corn is up, but it can’t hang in there much longer.”

The National Picture

Corn planting in central Kansas, other parts of the High Plains and in the Southeast has been slow-going this spring. However, some states are surging ahead. Nationwide, 57% of the 2026 corn crop is in the ground, outpacing the five-year average of 52%.

The Crop Progress Report indicates the national average is being buoyed by high-efficiency corn planting in parts of the mid-South and Midwest:

The Early Birds: Tennessee and Kentucky are nearly finished, reporting 92% and 87% completion.
Midwest Movers: Iowa leads the I-states at 72% planted, while Illinois sits at 54%. Minnesota is at nearly 70% completion.
Emergence: Nationally, 23% of the crop has emerged — trailing last year’s 26% due to cooler, drier soils across the Central Plains.

Farming From A Desk in Kentucky

In central Kentucky, millennial farmer Quint Pottinger is planting corn from behind a desk, watching his fully autonomous tractor crawl across his fields, thanks to a computer screen. Pottinger says technology is his primary weapon against the brutal economic environment U.S. farmers are dealing with.

High expenses led him to equip a 100‑hp tractor with a Sabanto retrofit kit, sell his big-frame 8,000‑series tractors and 40‑foot planters, and move to a smaller 20‑foot planter. The result: he’s running a lot slower, but cheaper.

“We sold two large tractors, two big planters. That was the only way we knew how to cut costs in this economic environment we’re in, and we had no idea if it would work,” Pottinger says.

The trade-off is speed, but the gain is efficiency. “I can slow this planter down to 2.5 miles an hour to get the right depth as the soil dries out,” he adds.

Despite a smoother start than the flood-plagued springs of the last two years, weather remains a hurdle. A sudden frost during pollination “dinged” his wheat crop, causing a 20% loss in some areas.

The one bright spot? His rye grown for the whiskey industry is looking good. “It just grinds through this weather and keeps going. It’s a whole different animal,” Pottinger says.

The Fertilizer Squeeze

For both farmers, the drought collides with a second crisis: fertilizer prices. In Kansas, Splitter is trimming his nitrogen rates by 25% to 30%.

“We’re so dry that even if you apply fertilizer, the risk of volatilization is just too high,” Splitter explains. “We’re not spending as much money, because it wouldn’t do any good anyway. But there’s no truly ‘good’ decision here — it’s a perfect storm of bad options.”

Moisture outlook for farmers in Nebraska and Kansas is DEPRESSING. Opportunities this weekend are isolated in nature, and anyone who gets a drink probably deals with severe weather impacts. Another opportunity in late May, early June.

30-day outlook from EPS weeklies: pic.twitter.com/a36c7FuXWQ
— Andrew Pritchard (@skydrama) May 14, 2026

In Kentucky, Pottinger’s attempt to lock in prices failed when global political shocks in the Strait of Hormuz voided his deferred pricing contracts. He was forced to buy at market price — when he could find supply at all. He worries the fallout will last years, especially if natural gas production for nitrogen doesn’t fully recover.

“This should be a problem for 2027, not 2026,” Pottinger says. “I fear farmers will get taken advantage of in both seasons, potentially stretching into 2028.”

Searching For Optimism

Despite the stalled planters and market anxiety, both men are looking for reasons to stay positive — be it through cost-saving technology or policy shifts like higher ethanol blends that could drive demand.

“In tough times like this, everybody’s trying to find something to be optimistic about,” Splitter says. “We should be that way as an industry as a whole. We shouldn’t be pitting one guy against the other. That’s not what American agriculture is about.”

For now, optimism for Splitter and Pottinger depends on a simple, old‑fashioned variable neither farmer can control.

“We need rain,” Pottinger says. “We need rain now.”

Hear the full planting discussion and more on AgriTalk at the link below:

Grains Plunge With Oil, Peace Talks: Is the Rally Over?

Wed, 06 May 2026 21:55:54 GMT

Grain and hog markets were lower on Wednesday with cattle higher.

Grains Tank With Crude Oil
Grains markets were lower in tandem with the plunge in crude oil on headlines of peace talks and a possible end to the Iran war. If the war is over and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened how much lower could grain futures fall with energy markets?

Oliver Sloup with Blue Line Futures says grain markets were trying to divorce from the war headlines and crude oil the last few weeks but now are right back trading with the energy moves.

“If oil continues to slide sharply lower, you know, that’s obviously going to be a big headwind for the grain markets. But I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market maybe chew through this headline quicker than we saw earlier in the year and maybe get the grain markets to trading back to their fundamental backdrop and the uncertainties that lie there,” he says.

Market Hit Technical Resistance
Corn also saw technical headwinds come into play according to Sloup as July corn made a double top.

“We saw July corn futures bump up against those March highs, $4.84, $4.87 1/2, tag that top to a tee and then set back. And if you look back all the way to last spring, that was also kind of a key inflection point for the market as well. You had the RSI or the relative strength index getting into overbought territory, which has really only happened about four or five times over the last year and a half. And each of those times, you know, we did see a correction of about 10 to about 30 cents. So somewhere in that ballpark, which is what we got today. So maybe a little bit more weakness here in the near term,” he explains.

New crop December corn though he thinks can trade on its own merit once the market stabilizes.

Is the Grain Rally Over?
Sloup is not sure the grain market rally is over due to the uncertainties surrounding acreage, yield and fertilizer. That will continue to keep fund or managed money traders interested in buying commodities.

“You’ve got fertilizer concerns and you talk about the energy markets as well. I don’t think that the energy markets or crude oil specifically is going to drop straight back down to where we’re trading 50 or 60 bucks. I think those prices probably stay somewhat elevated. And the concern there was get longer, higher for longer energy prices, and that feeds into the inflation narrative. And that props up commodities as a whole and continues to draw in some managed money participation, which we’ve seen in these grain markets for the better part of really the year,” he says.

So, he thinks the pullbacks are still buying opportunities. “Maybe more so in those new crop contracts.”

Soybeans Also See Technical Resistance
Soybeans had also hit technical resistance and drug down by crude oil the market went down and closed below the breakout points on the charts.

“So, we’re kind of right back down there to that breakout point that we saw about a week and a half ago. I think it was April 29th that we broke out above that range. And now we’re just retesting it and hopefully being able to defend that. That’s going to be a key area to keep the market in check. If we break and close back below there, potentially we see another 20 to 30 cents of downside here in the near term. But again, I think we potentially settle back into that choppy sideways range,” he explains.

However, new crop soybeans have had a more bullish chart pattern than old crop.

Soybean oil also hit new contract highs before reversing lower with crude oil but Sloup doesn’t think the market did technical damage.

“It was a big pullback in the bean oil market but with what we saw in the oil complex, I don’t think it was all surprising. Really not a whole lot of damage on the chart but a bit of a caution flag here in the next week’s trade,” he adds.

Awaiting China Meeting
The soybean market should be supported with the China summit next week May 14 and 15 and there could even be some buying ramping up into the meeting on optimism about the 25 MMT new crop soybean business being confirmed.

Sloup says, “I think that certainly kind of keeps funds interested and playing, so to speak. Funds have shown an appetite in the soybean complex really all year, as well as the corn market. So I wouldn’t be surprised the optimism build going into that.”

Broader Fund Buying in Grains
Sloup says there is also optimism growing about future expectations in other market.

“You don’t have to look too far to see what’s going on in the equity complex, whether it could be the S&P, NASDAQ, the Dow, etc. Just massive participation from money managers and potential. They start to look at commodities in a similar fashion here this year. Commodities have been pretty quiet over the last couple of years. But when you zoom out and look at the historical commodity super cycles, as we like to refer to them as, they really start with the base metals, precious metals, and then flow into energy. The next year to drop would be the agricultural complex.”

Last year money managers were moving into metals, this year energy and next is the grain markets.

Has Wheat Topped?
Wheat markets were lower removing war premium but have also been removing weather premium according to Sloup.

“A lot of uphill sledding for the wheat market and it is the wheat market so it can be a little bit more irrational for lack of better terms. We had the big move higher but I think you know looking back about a week and a half ago, we had that big blow off top, new highs for the move, and then a sharp reversal. And you just saw that snowball on itself. So, $6.60 is going to be the big level to hold for that Kansas City contract. That was the breakout point and kind of the old resistance area. If we can continue to defend that, I think that the Kansas City contract. Probably holds firm and continues to mark higher highs and higher lows. Breaking close below that would make me a little bit more nervous,” he says.

The Chicago contract has done more technical damage. He says, "$6.10 to $6.16, that’s a 20 and 50 day moving average. That’s the line in the sand that we want to see hold below that. You know, there’s potentially another 30 cents a downside,” he adds.

Wheat Production Cuts In WASDE?
Will USDA made any meaningful cuts to wheat production in the May 12 WASDE?

Sloup says, “I don’t know that they’re going to make any significant adjustments. I’m not really expecting them to. I would say that the market will trade this USDA report rather quickly. And then it’s probably going to be back to headlines and what’s going on in the corn and soybean market and potentially those markets feed on each other as far as the money flow goes.”

Cattle Continue Recovery
Cattle futures were up for a second day and continue to try to recover from last Friday’s key reversals with help from higher early cash.

“Cash continues to be the leader in that market and really hold a good foundation underneath things as well as just the technical landscape of things. We tested the 20 -day moving average earlier in the week. That will be probably a key inflection point, $249.25 to $250. Break and close below there, potentially you get some long liquidation. But again, the fundamental backdrop, the herd size, the cash trade continues to be just a solid foundation for this market,” he says.

But still he says cattle are resilient. “And whenever we see the turbulence, like we saw earlier in the week, it’s almost like holding a beach ball down underwater or trying to press one down underwater where you can only push it so far down and then it pops back twice as high as you pushed it down. So that continues to be the theme for the cattle market. It seems that dips are buying opportunities.”

Plus, funds are defending their longs according to Sloup.

“They have a net long position of currently about 131,000 contracts, which is historically large, but off of the recent highs that we’ve seen,” he adds.

The one concern he has is a black swan event. “I guess the thing that would make me potentially nervous would be outside market headlines or a potential border reopening, but trying to time those is nearly impossible. So for now, dips are potentially buying opportunities. Yeah, I’m sure lower corn futures, lower gas prices Probably helped out the cattle market and some total here today as well.”

Cattle, Restest the Highs?
He thinks the cattle market can retest the record highs and negate last Friday’s reversal.

“It’s really not all that far away. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the market continue to grind and push to the upside. With regards to the oil market, I think it’s interesting. I would almost look at a retracement in oil futures as a potential bearish catalyst. If you look at the correlation
between those, they’ve been trading almost in tandem, obviously not today. But I think that you probably look at that more as an inflation hedge rather than just risk on, risk off,” he states.

Hogs Lower....Again
Hog futures were back lower on Wednesday unable to extend Tuesday’s gains. So what is the problem with the hog market?

Sloup says, “I wish I had a good answer for you. We’ve been trying to be optimistic here on hogs as of late, but it just continues to mark lower highs and lower lows for that June contract, the 100 level. obviously has a little bit of psychological significance behind it and seems to have a gravitational pull to it as well this week. I think if we can defend that, you know, potentially we can carve out a low here, but not only do the bulls need to defend that, but we need to see consecutive closes out above $102, $102.50. That’s the 20 and 200 day moving averages. Consecutive closes out above there, maybe neutralizes some of the technical damage that we’ve seen over the last two months.”

Funds are only long about 46,000 futures. So no huge conviction to the downside or to the upside. It seems like they might be in a wait and see mode from these levels he adds.

Grains See Profit Taking, Hedge Pressure Off Highs: Cattle Stage Recovery

Tue, 05 May 2026 21:20:50 GMT

Grains ended lower on Tuesday with livestock higher.

Corn and Soybeans Ease on Profit Taking
Grains were lower on Tuesday seeing some profit taking after corn and soybeans made some new highs for the move on Monday.

Greg McBride of Allendale, says the market also saw some farmer selling and hedge pressure.

“Especially with the July contract going up and meeting that same high that it made back in March. It looks like an opportunity for these producers to get some of the last gas sales on old crop. You saw most of the negativity was up front, those May and July contracts.

December corn and soybeans also retested recent highs before hitting chart resistance.

He says, “The beans were up at just about their highs. The old crop beans, their old highs, are within 15 to 25 cents of it. So there’s some concerns about maybe getting up to the nosebleed section, especially at this time of the year when the markets do tend to put tops in. Anywhere from May to early June.”

Crude Oil Anchors Losses
The lower crude oil market also weighed on corn and soybeans and even wheat according to McBride.

“We see the market step back on Tuesday with the crude but we’re playing this back and forth game. So I think you’ve got to be careful about where some of the strength or weakness is coming from,” he points out.

He says money has been flowing into the grains due to the energy component but without a fundamental push it can easily reverse.

Fast Planting Pace
Another factor weighing on corn and soybeans was the fast planting pace at 38% nationally on corn, 4% ahead of average. Soybean planting was also at 33%, which is 10% ahead of the five year average.

Although the trend has been growing the last few years plant soybeans early this pace does support production. “Usually being ahead of pace does mean that we’re going to see a trend or above on on yields barring any major weather issues,” he says.

Plus, he says in areas that were struggling just a few days of favorable weather can result in some major progress.

“I think the guys in northern Illinois, northern Indiana, where they’re a little bit slower, we’ll see that pick up here over the next couple of weeks too,” he adds.

Soybeans Well Supported Ahead of China Meeting
McBride thinks that especially soybeans will be supported on any breaks heading into next week’s trade summit in China.

“I think that’s part of the reason that we’ve seen the bounce recently. You go back to October when we saw this similar lead up to the meeting between Trump and Xi. I don’t know that we get anything out of this for soybeans. It’ll probably turn into something more for agricultural in general purchases, but it’s definitely something the market’s going to be watching for,” he says.

He’s in the camp that the extra 8 MMT of old crop soybeans mentioned by President Trump is unlikely but if it is that would shock the market.

“We haven’t heard anything about that since early February. So if that comes out, that will be a market mover, especially for those soybeans,” he says.

Buy the Rumor, Sell the Fact
Even if the China buys the 25 MMT of new crop soybeans the market may sell off anyway according to McBride.

“The 25 million metric tons for this year, for 27 and 28, I think you’ve got to have that priced in already,” he explains.

Now it’s one of those things where we are status quo. You’ve got to see some sort of a weather issue or you’ve got to see. I know everybody wants to

Wheat Consolidation Continues
Wheat futures continued to consolidate off the recent two year highs taking out risk premium, including weather premium with rain in the forecast for drought areas says McBride.

“Well, the wheat’s an interesting one because it’s so friendly depending on where you’re at. The Southwestern belt is dry. There’s a lot of acres that are going to be up for abandonment. There’s a lot of areas now, right, as we talk, that this week, this tonight, or on Tuesday night into Wednesday, you may be seeing some frost, some freezes, even some snow in some of those areas. So there’s some concerns about this crop out there,” he says.

However, the market is also driven by the crude oil market. “So you see the weakness in the crude on Tuesday and the wheat followed it. What happens if we go up another $4 or $5 in crude Wednesday or Thursday does the wheat take off to the high side again?”

Wheat Holds Support
Wheat futures did hold support on the charts to keep the uptrend intact and the funds defending their long position.

He says, “For right now, and you’ve seen the Minneapolis position for the funds has gone to a record long. KC is long. Chicago is just slightly long at this point when it comes to the managed money positions. That’s not a situation that you take lightly. They don’t tend to stick into those
long positions for wheat. But when they start to build and they build like they have, especially in the KC in the Minneapolis on either drought or smaller crop because of less acres, that could be a situation that maybe sticks around for a little bit. And maybe what we’re doing really is resetting the overall dominant range to a little bit higher in that wheat market.”

Funds have not been this long in wheat since June of 2022.

May WASDE Confirm Smaller Crop?
Will the May WASDE confirm the smaller winter wheat crop or will the market get that news from the Kansas Wheat Quality Council Wheat Tour next week?

McBride says, “Yeah, I think it’s the wheat tour will probably have a better look at it. You’ve still got some areas that are coming out of dormancy. I don’t know how much the USDA is going to want to step out on their WASDE report, but I think that the wheat tour is going to tell us a lot as we go through it.”

The rate of abandonment may be the key which can be a wild card. “I hear a lot of producers talking about abandonment in January, February, but then it comes out that they end up with a crop that’s 30 to 50 bushels. I do think just based off of some of the customers that I’ve talked to, there is going to be more abandonment than other years. It’s hard to gauge at this point right now. I know there’s a lot of insurance guys out there checking fields to see what’s available to them.”

Cattle Market Recovers Tuesday
Live and feeder cattle futures staged a recovery on Tuesday after holding key support areas on Monday’s set back and with lower corn prices.

However, McBride says there was also some early cash trade at higher money of $255 to $257, which is unusual this early in the week.

“So you had a strong cash trade last week. We were up $8 or $9 from the previous week. You started getting this early week cash trade on Monday and then some on Tuesday is an interesting look because we don’t see that very often. So to have steady to even up to two dollars higher does push this market a little bit,” he explains.

Plus, boxed beef was higher on Tuesday. So, he thinks Monday’s action was tied to news of the DOJ probe of meat packers.

“This is a market that’s in an uptrend and has been in a long-term uptrend. So lately, these sell-offs, especially when it’s $5, $6, $7 in the feeders, has been a buying opportunity for speculators especially,” he adds.

So higher cash could negate Friday’s key reversal.

DOJ Probe
With an announcement expected Friday on more action against the meat packing industry to get beef prices down that could spook the market again.

However McBride says this is not the first investigation and no changes have ever resulted from it.

“It’s one of those things, it needs to go further. They need to find something or they need to do something about it. But just having a probe, I don’t think that does anything for us substantially,” he adds.

Hog Market Bounces
The hog market finally bounced off of four month lows with the help of the rally in cattle and as futures held support.

McBride says, “We took out support from like a week ago, two weeks ago on Monday. We took that low out on Tuesday. The reversal here looks good. I’m hoping what we’ve seen is we’ve finally seen a little bit of a fight for for seasonals in that market. You know, we talk about seasonals and all these other markets, but as you go into spring, you start to see the procurement for for summer grilling season. That’ll be the one to really watch when it comes to the to the pork side of things. Can we get some sort of a retest of, you know. just getting back up to kind of 50% retracement. That puts you around like $106, $105, something like that in those June, July, August contracts.”

Grains See Profit Taking with Lower Energy, Crop Progress: Cattle Recover

Tue, 05 May 2026 16:06:31 GMT

Grains were lower early Tuesday, with livestock higher.

Grains See Profit Taking
Grain markets were all lower to start Tuesday seeing some routine profit taking after hitting new highs for the move and even some new contract highs in parts of the corn and soybean complex, according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading.

He says the markets were also watching the energy sector which was seeing some lower prices.

“I think every day when you wake up, you got to ask yourself, where’s crude at? Where’s energy markets? And that’s the first place to go to look to maybe set the tone for where these markets are going to be at across your grain. So, yeah, that’s the first place to look. Dec new crop corn made a new high overnight. But yeah, pulling off and testing that $5 level on new crop corn are attractive levels for producers,” he says.

So, there may also be some farmer selling. “Yeah those round numbers stick in producers mind for sales targets,” he says.

Dec $5 Corn, Now Where?
He says now that Dec corn has closed above $5 there may be more upside to the market, especially as funds continue to buy.

“I look at managed money positions quite often and funds have been on the right side of the grain market since the first of March. You know, the end of February when those March options came off the books, funds were net short 13,000 corn contracts. And now as of last Tuesday,
264,000 long. And there’s estimates that they’re closer to 300,000 net long currently. So you’ve got to respect that number. That’s well off the record high for their net long position in corn. So there’s room for them to add to that length,” he adds.

Still he says to respect where the funds are at and prepare for a pull back on long liquidation.

Money Flow, Crude Oil Supports Grains
Still, he says the money flow has been favoring grains and the market should be supported on inflationary concerns as long as crude oil prices stay elevated.

“Yeah, it goes back to where are the energy markets? What are they doing? You got crude above $100 in this area. That’s going to support the market. Rising prices at the pump, they make ethanol more competitive compared to gasoline. But on the flip side, Michelle, too, we got to think about gasoline. That’s the main delivery mechanism for getting ethanol and driving ethanol consumption. So if you have higher prices at the pump, is that going to curb usage? And then that kind of goes back to inflation too. Is that going to squeeze consumers’ pocketbooks and actually cause less ethanol usage?

He says many people are looking for a reduction in ethanol usage in the May WASDE and the next few reports.

Fast Planting Pace
The fast planting pace is also weighing on corn and soybeans as U.S. corn seeding pace was at 38% Monday with the five year average at 34%. Soybean planting at 33% was 10% ahead of average.

He says, “No significant problems getting the crop in you look at corn planting pace above the five -year average pace is you know just screaming we’re getting beans in the ground and they’re ahead of normal. That’s good until the rains I guess don’t come but that doesn’t look to be a problem right now.”

That early planting is also taking production risk out of the market he adds.

“So, each day we plug along in this production cycle you know we’re getting the crop in the ground then it’s early vegetative growth and then as we enter reproductive growth putting seeds on the plants and and production the more we know about a market the more certainty we get on the supply side the less risk there out is out there and the market becomes less concerned about a production problem,” he adds.

The market is also watching the dry conditions in the Brazil and if that will trim production on the second crop corn.

Soybean Market Also Makes New Highs
Soybeans made new highs for the move on Monday so the market is seeing profit taking and some farmer selling pressure especially with fast planting.

However, Huck says the market will be well supported going into the China meeting next week and with the May WASDE on Tuesday.

“So next week could be a really dynamic week and who knows what to expect out of that. So we will get the WASDE, we will get the first look at the new crop balance sheets for both corn, beans, and wheat,” he says.

China Meeting in Focus
Plus, the volatility of the China Summit with President Trump and President Xi meeting on May 14 and 15 will be in focus.

“We’ll see what comes out of there. My biggest concern about that meeting and what’s changed over the last month is that Iran and the conflict there will take more precedence over a bigger, larger ag trade deal. It may take the air out of the room a little bit as they focus on other things,” he says.

The concern could also be if the soybean market has already price it in then there may be a “buy the rumor sell the fact reaction” which could produce a selloff.

“You have these headlines the anticipation of an event and like you said there you can buy the rumor and sell the fact and where will this market go so a lot of a lot of pieces of the puzzle ahead,” he says.

Marketing Strategy?
Huck says seasonals are in the farmers favor right now and so they need to watch the market to take advantage of opportunities to price.

“Producers should keep an eye on these grain prices and where they’re at and be opportunistic don’t rule out where things can go but uh respect where they’re at today and where we’ve come from,” he adds.

Wheat Market Falls on Conditions, Rains
Wheat futures are trading nearly 35 cents off of the 2-year highs scored in soft red and hard red winter wheat contracts just a week and a half ago.

The crop condition rating on Monday was up 1% to 31% good to excellent and there are forecasts for rain in the next few days. In fact there was already some rain falling on Tuesday morning in some areas of Colorado and Nebraska.

“Wheat’s been on a tear this year. You know, one of the best performing commodities. I think July KC wheat is, you know, traded almost a $2 trading range since the first of the year. It rallied from $5.35 up to $7.18. We’ve pulled back off of that. We’re about 35 cents off the highs on the July KC wheat contract,” he says.

Crop conditions are bleak the further west you travel into Eastern Colorado and the extreme Western Kansas the panhandle.

However, says, “The wheat crop looks tough but in my travels here I’ve seen you know seen some ground over the last couple weeks traveling around. I’ve actually kind of been impressed with pleasantly surprised with some of what the wheat looks like. So wheat’s a very resilient crop. We often joke that it, you know, needs nine lives to kill it. And I don’t know what life we’re on. Some of it has spent all of them, but I wouldn’t underestimate. I think there’s more potential out there than than maybe what we thought a couple of weeks ago. And yeah, we’ll see. A rain, I think. still help some things.”

He was surprised though with the slight improvement in crop conditions on Monday.

“We really saw kind of a separation where some of that, the fair either went up into good and excellent, or it drifted back into the poor, very poor. So there’s definitely have and have-nots out there in wheat country, and it’s a resilient crop. It’s used up a lot of its lives. Don’t count it out,” he adds.

Wheat Marketing Opportunity
Huck says there are some opportunities to market wheat right now.

“It’s a really difficult crop to market to, Michelle. Are we going to raise 60 bushel wheat or are we going to raise 10 bushel wheat? So options make a good tool to be using there to protect these prices. And if you’re not doing something on 26 or you feel like you can’t, maybe look out there at 27 and see what you can do out there on 27 crop,” he explains.

Kansas Wheat Tour
The Wheat Quality Council tour is headed for Kansas May 11-14 and Huck expects a mixed bag regarding what they find in the field.

“I think you’re going to see some extreme photos of browned out wheat with no heads and just big bare spots. I think you’re going to see some thin wheat. I think you’re going to see some frost freeze damage wheat. You’re going to get a basket of a little bit of everything. But I think there’s going to be some pockets out there where the wheat looks better than expected. And maybe an average, below average type of crop would be my anticipation. It’ll be interesting to see when we get the boots on the ground. And some of that freeze damage is out there, too, because that’s one of the most difficult things to look at, especially from the 70-mile-an-hour drive-by look that I often get at wheat,” he states.

The key to production may be the abandonment of acres and he says that may not show up yet in the May WASDE.

“Typically the USDA takes a scaled approach to making those adjustments, but you never know what to expect when it comes to printing a number on paper,” he says.

Cattle Market Trying to Recover
The cattle market was higher early on Tuesday trying to recover from the key reversals scored on Friday.

The market made record highs that day in both live and feeder cattle futures and then ended lower and continued to sell off Monday.

So can the market make a full recovery?

Huck says, “The cattle market’s strong and we’re up here, you know, very near record levels, just off those record levels, looking at feeders, looking at fats, you know, May feeders posted contract highs Friday, $378.27, closed yesterday, $366.60. You know, we have a $12 off the high just yesterday,”

However, he points out May’s beef month and grilling season is just ahead.

“There’s a lot of fundamental supportive factors for the beef market going forward. But one of the biggest questions in my mind is the health of the consumer. That’s to me is what’s going to drive demand and drive this market going forward. If they show resiliency to continue buying beef because they like the way it tastes, they like the health consciousness of it. It’s a nutrient dense protein that brings lots of stuff, lots of good stuff to consumers. If they’ve got an appetite for beef, I would not guess how long this good market can last,” he adds.

Cattle Market Resilient
The cattle market has also been resilient in the face of bearish headlines. While it did trade bearish in reaction to the announced DOJ probe of meat packers it doesn’t take long for the fundamentals to came back into focus.

“There’s a lot of headlines out there that get slung around and you never know when the trade’s going to trade them and when they’re going to completely ignore them,” he says.

Cash is King
Still with record cash last week that will support the market and the strong cash trade moving foward.

This week the cash market may be more quiet after a week of big gains and last week’s early trade.

“Wholesale beef prices there’s just some natural ebb and flow as to what the packer needs to do to manage the inventory manage their margin and then you’ll manage the supply on the feed yard side so lots of ebb and flow in this market the fundamentals haven’t really changed but
you never know when they’re gonna they are going to change,” he says.

Cash Feeders Strong
The cash feeder market has not cooled off which should also support the feeder cattle futures.

“Right. Yeah, we’re the index is moving around quite a bit. A couple of weeks ago, we saw a pullback on it with some headlines. You kind of got to watch energy markets in the macro markets as well whenever you’re looking at cattle. And we see some pullbacks, some sell offs, ten dollar sell offs. But cash data last week was pretty strong and bouncing back. Watch that cash, not just the the index average change each day, but the daily data that goes into the feeder cattle index each. each day that also provides some clues as to where things are going,” he adds.

From Football to Farming, 2026 is a Season of Ups and Downs

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 02:30:42 GMT

An early start to planting season doesn’t mean Cody White’s worries are out of the woods in DeWitt County, Ill. On Monday, 1.5" to 5" of rain as well as hail, straight-line winds and tornadoes hit his area. This year, White’s beans were planted earlier than ever before, April 14, which means he expects he’ll have to replant.

“We were off to almost a picture-perfect start here,” he says. “That has now been flipped on its head.”

However, the first-generation farmer is accustomed to changing directions. White’s NFL career is helping him make the game-time decision to navigate the highs and lows of the 2026 season.

From NFL to the Farm

After a standout collegiate career at Illinois State University, where he started as tight end and later moved to the offensive line, White signed with the Houston Texans in 2012 as an undrafted free agent. White’s third season was looking up when he ruptured his Achilles tendon.

(Cody White)

“That shut my year down. I had to have it restructured, repaired, tried to come back. It wasn’t the same. It wasn’t enough time,” he says. “I fought, fought, fought, and then finally there comes a day when football is done with you, and that’s just when my time was.”

The shift in 2016 forced him to pivot toward a new profession. Today, White farms with his father-in-law and sells seed for Wyffels Hybrids. He notes that the transition from the football field was more natural than some might expect.

“Football and farming — there’s a lot of similarities,” White says. “They both have an offseason, the planning, the game planning, executing that plan and knowing when to change it.”

Adjusting the Game Plan

Changing the game plan is exactly what White has had to do over the past three years. This growing season, expensive fertilizer and rising diesel prices are the primary problems he is trying to tackle.

While White secured his fertilizer for this year, he admits that diesel costs are at the top of his mind.

“I wish I would have booked our spring use back in December or January,” White says. “It was sub-$3 then. It’s one of those things that are out of your control, right? You just kind of control what you can control.”

To manage the squeeze, White says they are cutting back where possible. But he says there is only so much he can trim before it impacts his crops.

Concerns Over Market Concentration

White is keeping a close eye on the numerous dynamics in the fertilizer industry. He’s glad to see members of the president’s Cabinet meeting with industry leaders to discuss rising costs.

“I’m all for capitalism, but at some point, when there are three companies running everything, they’re able to dictate,” White explains. “We watch commodity prices go up, and now fertilizer prices are up. We’re just trading dollars constantly.”

In a game of pennies, or inches, White thinks most farmers will find a way to make the numbers work for the remainder of this year. However, he thinks 2027 could prove tough for many farmers.

“Football is a game of ups and downs,” White says. “You’re never too down; you’re never too up. That’s kind of the world we’re living in right now.”

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Crop Progress Throughout the Midwest

According to the latest USDA reports, approximately one-quarter of the U.S. corn and soybean crops are now in the ground. Despite a pattern of spring storms moving across the Midwest, farmers are finding windows of opportunity to advance the 2024 planting season.

Northwest Iowa: Emergence Underway

In Northwest Iowa, Matt McCarthy is seeing significant progress. McCarthy has wrapped up corn planting and is roughly 75% finished with his soybeans. He expects to finish soybean planting by the end of the week. Progress on McCarthy’s farm is currently ahead of last year’s pace, largely because recent rains have missed his location.

“Yesterday [the crop] just was spiking through, and then with this little bit of rain really softened the top, and it’s coming up pretty nice,” McCarthy says. “It’s cold, probably 53 degrees right now, but you can row it. Those fields planted on the 14th and even some corn on the 17th are spiking through.”

Minnesota and Northeast Iowa: Rain and Cold Slow Momentum

Near Mankato, Minn., Chris Schenk reports that his soybean planting was completed last Saturday. He managed to seed more than 200 acres of corn before being sidelined by three-quarters of an inch of rain on Monday. While Schenk doesn’t expect to return to the field until early next week, he notes that roughly 60% of farmers in his area have already finished.

Farther south in Cresco, Iowa, Darrick Barnikle is still waiting for the right window. While fertilizer applications are nearly complete, planting has not yet begun on his farm. Cool temperatures and scattered showers have kept planters in the shed for most growers in the area, with Barnikle estimating only 5% of local corn and soybeans are planted. With a drier forecast ahead, activity is expected to ramp up midweek, though growers remain cautious of a forecasted dip to 32°F Friday night.

Southwest Iowa and Beyond: Navigating Variable Rains

In Percival, Iowa, Pat Sheldon reports that weekend rainfall was highly variable. Despite the scattered totals, planting progress remains strong in his area. Sheldon estimates that 75% of the corn and 20% of the soybeans are already in the ground, with planters expected to roll again later this week.

Meanwhile, for Chris Harrell, recent rains will likely keep fieldwork on pause for most of the week. Harrell currently has about two-thirds of his soybeans planted, but corn progress sits at roughly 20%. He hopes to return to the field by the weekend.

Assess Soybean Frost Damage: Ken Ferrie Urges Patience, Replanting Discipline After Hard Freeze

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 15:47:05 GMT

Earlier this week after a series of storms and subfreezing temperatures swept through central Illinois, agronomist Ken Ferrie walked his March-planted soybean test plots south of the Bloomington area and didn’t like what he found.

“We had a substantial frost, reports of temperatures from 29 to 32 degrees, with the frost hanging around three hours or more,” Ferrie says. “Things are kind of crunchy in the grass this morning.”

That crunch underfoot translates into real damage in soybeans. Some plants, Ferrie says, are not going to make it.

“The worst hit are soybeans in the unifoliate stage or more and that were planted in our low ground,” he notes.

Illinois wasn’t the only state where soybeans were hit by frost. Weather reports from Monday and Tuesday indicate a late-season cold snap brought frost and freezing temperatures to at least four additional key soybean-producing states, impacting parts of Iowa, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio.

According to the USDA Crop Progress report released on April 20, roughly 12% of the national soybean crop had been planted. States like Illinois and Indiana were slightly ahead of their five-year averages, making crops there more vulnerable to this specific frost event.

Don’t Rush To Replant, Be Disciplined In Your Approach

Ferrie describes a clear set of visual cues growers can use to evaluate frost damage in their crop.

“Look for unifoliate leaves that are dark and deflated, and the cotyledons have a dark color,” he says. “The biggest telltale is the stem has no turgor pressure right below the cotyledons.”

He notes that those beans with discolored cotyledons and limited turgor pressure will require more time to see if they will refire at the cotyledon node.

Ferrie urges growers to take a systematic approach to evaluating frost-damaged soybeans with these four steps:

Check bean growth stage and field position (low ground vs. higher areas).
Inspect unifoliate leaves and cotyledons for dark, deflated tissue.
Pinch stems just below the cotyledons to feel for turgor.
Flag concerning areas and return in a couple of days to reevaluate survival and stand uniformity.

This bean is at the VC growth stage. While leaves look nipped and are discolored, what matters even more is what’s happening just below the cotyledons. Ferrie says there is no turgor pressure in the stem underneath the cotyledons. Turgor pressure serves soybeans a number of ways, including support for the movement of nutrients and water. “This plant is going to dry up and die on us and not make it,” Ferrie says.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Video)

This plant shows some leaf damage and possible stem damage just below the upper leaves. However, turgor pressure lower in the plant looks good. This plant is likely to survive, but Ferrie says farmers would want to reassess plants like this a few days following a frost to make sure.

(Crop-Tech Consulting Video)

Young soybeans, like this one, handle frost better than plants at VC and older because they are closer to the ground, allowing them to benefit from soil warmth, and they have thicker, waxy cotyledons. This plant is going to do fine.

(Crop-Tech Consulting)

Once you’ve assessed damage, the questions then are, how many beans survived, and how uniform a stand remains?

Replant decisions, Ferrie emphasizes, should be based on surviving plant counts and uniformity, not on first impressions the morning after a frost. That will take a few days to assess.

Why Risk Planting Soybeans In March?

Ferrie addressed the broader strategy that put March-planted beans at risk in the first place — and why many growers benefit from planting early.

“Guys ask me why plant beans in March, when you can plant them April 15,” Ferrie says. “If you can plant them April 15, not much is gained. But if you get rained out at May 1 or later, you could definitely miss the early flowering window.”

That early flowering window, he notes, remains a key driver of soybean yield potential. The risk of frost is the tradeoff.

“So that risk of early planting and dealing with frost and the need to help them up with a hoe and things like that, that always needs to be weighed against missing the early flowering window,” he says.

Go Time For Planting More Soybeans

Ferrie says the next few days are a green light for planting soybeans in central Illinois.

“If you don’t have your full-season beans planted by April 24, you may want to switch to your shorter-season beans, giving them a better chance at early flowering. Our early flowering window is closing for these full-season beans,” he adds.

The freeze may claim some of the earliest soybeans, but Ferrie insists growers still have tools to protect yield — from switching maturities as key dates approach to making informed replant calls based on stand counts and plant response.

Younger soybeans typically handle the cold and frost better.

“Population is, here at the campus, the last emerging beans, still in the cotyledon stage, are in good shape,” he says. “And the beans that we plant in the covers are protected well.”

Ferrie’s message to farmers this week is clear: get out and assess your crop, but don’t rush to replant. “By the end of the week, we’ll know how rough this frost damage is, and we’ll reassess replanting decisions after that,” he says.

You can watch Ferrie’s brief video on how to assess soybean damage here .

Illinois Farmers Sidelined by Rain and Storms, as Southern Farmers Plant at Record Rates

Wed, 22 Apr 2026 13:27:18 GMT

While many Southern farmers are shattering speed records for the 2026 planting season, planters are sidelined for many farmers in the Midwest who are facing wet conditions. For the father-and-son duo of Dave and Chris Harrell, the 2026 season is off to a slow start. However, the corn and soybean farmers in Hancock County think the slight setback could be a setup for a successful season later.

Chris and Dave Harrell test the planter in Carthage, Ill.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

“[There’s] little to nothing going on at all this week,” Chris Harrell said April 17.

“I know we’ve had roughly five-and-a-half inches in the last in the last two weeks,” he adds. The Harrells received 2 more inches of rain and storms last weekend.

The nation’s corn crop is currently 11% planted, sitting 2 points ahead of the five-year average. Much of that momentum is coming from Illinois and Indiana, which both had a big week in the field. Illinois is now 13% planted, and Indiana follows closely at 14%. However, the western Corn Belt is seeing a different pace. Iowa is off to a slow start, with just 2% of its corn crop in the ground as of this week.

Soybean planting is moving even faster relative to historical norms. Nationally, soybean planting is 7 points ahead of the five-year average at 12% of the soybean crop planted.

Harrell says farmers south of his family’s farm in Carthage, Ill., are further along planting. The Harrells planted one field of beans March 30 before rain paused their efforts. With 40 years of experience under his belt, Dave Harrell thinks the rain won’t set them back too far and that it will helpful in the weeks to come.

“We’ve got ample time,“ Dave says. “You know, it’s still middle of April, so we’ll be fine.”

Shown is the Harrells’ bean field as of April 17, 2026.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

Navigating the Bottom Line: Diesel and Inputs

While the rain may eventually prove to be a blessing in disguise for yields, input costs, specifically fuel, are weighing heavily on the books. According to AAA, the average diesel price in Illinois this week is approximately $1.80 higher than it was this time last year.

“The diesel prices, I think, is No. 1 top of mind subject right now,“ Chris explains. “I mean, the price of corn’s gone up with it, but I think a lot of farmers would say it’s not gone up enough to offset some of it.”

To combat these rising costs, Dave is utilizing strip-till practices. He also relies on early contracts to lock in fuel prices.

“We lucked out and had some contracted to kind of cover our spring needs, so we’ll be OK through the spring,” he says.

(AAA)

Finding Opportunity in Non-GMO Premiums

In addition to conventional corn and soybeans, the Harrells also plant non-GMO corn from Wyffels. While the process requires more management, Dave said the financial upside makes it a win-win situation.

“It’s a little extra work on segregation and storage and clean out,” Chris says. “You just kind of have to have a little checklist and get through it all, but the premiums are nice, especially in a tougher environment like this.”

Four generations of the Harrell family stand for a photo. Dave’s dad still helps out on the farm today at 95 years old.

(Chris Harrell)

Looking Ahead

As the fields in Carthage begin to dry out, a new challenge has emerged: High winds are currently preventing spraying operations. However, the Harrells are rolling with the punches, expecting farmers in their area to potentially move back into full-scale fieldwork by Wednesday.

Chris Harrell works on the planter while waiting for fields to dry out.

(Haley Bickelhaupt)

This barn on the Harrells’ farm was built in the early 1900s. It’s been through storms and been given updates. Today, it serves as a shop for the family.

(Mike Byers)

Historic Gains in the Corn Belt South

According to latest USDA reports, corn planting in Kentucky and Tennessee is moving at its fastest rate since 2012. The numbers tell a story of an efficient window:

Tennessee — Farmers have 64% of the corn crop in the ground, which is a massive 40-point jump ahead of the five-year average and 42 points ahead of last year.
Kentucky — Growers are nearly halfway finished, sitting roughly 30 points ahead of the normal pace.

Soybeans See Record-Setting Pace

The speed isn’t limited to corn. Soybean planting is also rewriting the record books in the Deep South:

Louisiana — Leading the pack at 58% planted, which is 26 points ahead of average and the fastest pace in USDA history.
Mississippi — Currently at 55% planted, running 32 points ahead of the usual pace, another record.
Tennessee — Soybean planting has hit the 50% mark, 41 points ahead of the historical average.

The ‘Dry’ Reality: Farmers Forced to Wait

While the dry weather allowed for uninterrupted field time early on, the lack of moisture is now a major hurdle. David Hula says for growers in the Southeast, the dust has become too much.

“We’ve been dry all season so far, and we actually stopped planting because we’ve been so dry,” Hula says. “Can’t just get the planter in the ground, but it’s the first top, the first planting window. We waited till things warmed up, you know; I’m very diligent and patient about that, and all that corn has come up awesome.”

He says they stopped planting last Thursday, and there’s no measurable rain in the forecast.

“I don’t know when we’re gonna get started back,” Hula says.

Pocket of Extreme Drought

The topsoil moisture maps highlight a stark reality for the region. In a corridor stretching from Virginia to Georgia, topsoil rated “short to very short” in ranges from 83% to a staggering 97%. It has become one of the driest pockets in the country, creating a sharp contrast to the Midwest.

Canadian Farmers Look For A Fresh Start After The Driest Year In Decades

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 18:47:21 GMT

The way Tim Webster tells it, his 2025 cropping season was nearly a disaster. Summer delivered the lowest July–August rainfall his area had seen in 50 years. That lack and abnormally high temperatures pushed corn and soybeans to their limits.

“We had just enough moisture to get to the finish line,” recalls Webster, a sixth-generation farmer based just west of Lindsay, Ontario, Canada. The end result: corn and soybean yields came in at about half of normal.

Webster and fellow farmer Steve Crothers, who farms on the north shore of Lake Ontario about 50 miles east of Toronto, recently sat down with Illinois-based Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie to talk about how they’re adjusting cropping plans for 2026 after last year’s drought.

Drought Reshapes Farmer Expectations

For Webster, last season was a stark reminder of how quickly yield potential can evaporate. Ultimately, Webster’s bottom line took a hit.

“We’re hoping that doesn’t repeat again,” he told Ferrie.

Crothers’ experience, though slightly better, was still defined by drought. Growing corn, soybeans, wheat and edible beans along Lake Ontario, he says it was the driest of his 40-plus years in farming.

“We had a couple half-inch rains, so we kind of ended up with three-quarters of our long-term average yield. So, we fared a little bit better,” Crothers says.

Still, the season left him and Webster concerned about their cropping plans and finances for this year.

Crop Insurance As A Lifeline

Ferrie drew a comparison between Canadian and American safety nets as he listened to Crothers and Webster describe their experiences. In the U.S., Ferrie notes farmers often lean on multiple levels of crop insurance to blunt losses in a bad production year. He asked whether similar options exist for Canadian farmers.

Webster replied that growers there do have a provincial crop insurance program, but participation and coverage levels vary.
“I think we all felt after last year, maybe we should have been insured a little higher. But we were very happy to have what we had to help pay the bills, that’s for sure,” Webster notes.

Crothers says specialty crops, including edible white beans and adzuki beans, come under similar insurance frameworks as corn and soybeans, though they have higher premiums because of their higher value.

Most of the white beans grown in his part of Ontario head to the United Kingdom, while the adzuki beans (also called mung beans) are shipped to Japan, Crothers notes. Those export markets add another layer of risk to already weather-sensitive crops, making insurance an important backstop when weather or markets turn against them.

Fertilizer Sticker Shock Hits Canadian Growers

If drought defined 2025, fertilizer prices loom large over this season for Canadian farmers, much like they do for U.S. farmers.

“For 2026 our biggest thing is hope — hope for typical average rainfalls after last year’s drought,” Crothers says. “And then, of course, the economic challenges with the fertilizer situation are obviously troubling to everybody.”

He tells Ferrie most fertilizer in his part of Ontario is not prepaid “The fellows using 28% are usually prepaid, because it’s been hard to get the last few years. But generally, not near as much fertilizer is prepaid as what, in a perfect world, would have been.” Crothers reports.

That leaves many Canadian farmers more exposed to potential sticker shock as they head into spring planting.

Webster says he pre-bought some of his nitrogen (N) in February and is now leaning hard into a strategy of splitting applications and dialing back on more expensive, slow-release N options where he can.

This year, for his wheat topdress program, fertility costs didn’t pencil out, forcing a change in his plans.

“It’s $32 more [per acre] to go with the time-release product versus straight urea,” Webster notes. “So, I think on our wheat this year we’re going to do a lot of split applications.”

With diesel, fertilizer and other costs trending higher, he says, “anything you can do to save small increments adds up … for the whole operation.”

Cropping Plans: Adjust Or Stay The Course?

Both farmers describe their region as an area where crop rotations remain fairly consistent: corn, soybeans and wheat typically share the mix. Asked whether high input prices and drought fears would drive large acreage shifts this season, Webster says his own operation plans to stay the course with its rotation, helped by a marketing strategy that spreads grain sales out over time to manage risk and meet mortgage payments.

Still, he’s aware some of his neighbors are recalibrating their cropping plans.

“I know some guys are going to go less corn, more beans — just less dollars to put it in,” Webster notes. “Maybe the profits aren’t as high, but there’s less risk involved.”

Ferrie notes that, similar to Ontario, many U.S. growers also appear to be largely holding to their established crop plans, as their major fertilizer and seed commitments were already made before input costs soared.

In a region still feeling the effects of the driest season in decades, both Webster and Crothers are essentially betting on a return to something closer to normal this season — average rains, manageable input costs and no repeat of last year’s extremes.

“If we get good yields, then we can deal with those [costs],” Crothers says. “But another weather year like last year would definitely be a struggle for a lot of people.”

Crothers and Webster spoke with Ferrie during a meeting hosted by the Durham Soil and Crop Association, a grassroots group that works under Ontario’s agricultural umbrella to bring new ideas, funding opportunities and conservation programs to farmers in the region.

You can catch the entire conversation between Ferrie, Crothers and Webster on this week’s Boots In The Field podcast, available below.

60% of U.S. Now Facing Moderate to Exceptional Drought

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:54:03 GMT

The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.

(NOAA/NWS)

The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA , which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the Western plains is parched and in need of a rain.

(NASA)

Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.

Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint

“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass , senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”

In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.

“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”

Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned

In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”

(USDA)

Any Relief in the Forecast?

Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.

“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.

Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.

"Super” El Niño Talk Grows: What It Means for U.S. Farmers

Mon, 13 Apr 2026 14:29:33 GMT

Now that La Niña is out of the picture, farmers across Texas and the Southern Plains are anxiously watching both the skies and the Pacific Ocean, hoping a developing El Niño pattern will finally bring relief to ongoing drought conditions.

The updated forecasts show chances are growing that a historic El Niño is brewing this year. According to NOAA’s April 2026 outlook , there is a 25% chance of a “very strong” or super El Niño developing by late 2026 or early 2027, while NOAA is placing a 50% chance for a “strong” El Niño yet this year.

Ag meteorologist Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather says the talk of a strong El Niño could be good news for the South and Plains, but the area of concern remains in the Pacific Northwest for summer and fall. And he expects El Niño to continue to be a story into 2027.

While hope for rain relief in parts of the South and West centers on El Niño, in the short term, the question remains: will it arrive in time to matter?

Rapid Shift Toward El Niño

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing.

“The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

Bledsoe says the most important piece of the forecast right now isn’t just that El Niño is forming—it’s how quickly conditions are changing. “The thing that I’m focused on right now is just simply the rate of change from where we are right now until about June,” he says.

(ECMWF)

Forecast models are showing unusual agreement on that shift.

“If we look at the latest European seasonal model—you’ve seen this all over the place—look at how closely packed those lines are together from now through June,” Bledsoe says. “That is the model exhibiting very good confidence in not only how quickly this is changing, but also how strongly it’s going to pivot in one direction.”

Confidence decreases further out in time, but the near-term signal is strong.

“As you get out there toward October, you see the lines spread out a little bit—that’s the model saying, ‘Oh, we’re uncertain exactly how strong this is going to be,’” he says.

Still, Bledsoe’s outlook is clear.

“I do think this is going to be a strong El Niño. I’m very grounded in that opinion right now.”

What Makes a “Super El Niño”?

As mainstream headlines increasingly use the term “super El Niño,” Blesoe says the definition is straightforward, but the implications can be significant.

“It just simply means that the sea surface temperature anomalies in a particular area of the Pacific get to be greater than two degrees Celsius above average,” he says.

Some forecasts are pushing beyond even that threshold.

“If we look at some of the computer modeling that’s out there, some of these models push that to over two and a half degrees Celsius above average,” he says. “That is a huge change from where we’ve been in dealing with the La Niña phenomenon off and on for about five out of the past six winters.”

That kind of shift doesn’t just stay in the Pacific.

“When you see that big change take place, it really has a big impact as far as global weather is concerned—let alone what goes on here right in the United States,” Bledsoe says.

Uneven Rainfall Pattern Continues for April

Bledsoe says recent rains have been inconsistent, with parts of the Southern Plains missing chances of rain, while areas of Kansas saw nearly 10 inches of rain over two days. But Bledsoe says that trend isn’t over yet.

“I think some folks got shorted out of this last round of rain,” Bledsoe says. “It’s been very easterly biased. And that’s really been the big trend so far, as these storm systems just simply aren’t slow moving enough and consolidated enough to yank that moisture farther back to the West.”

Brian Bledsoe says the ridge of high pressure parked over the east, but the blue in the west is what is sending energy that’s fueling storms benefiting some areas of the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Bledsoe says over the next 10 days, that pattern largely holds.

“The thing that I’m focused on is all of that orange in the East, that’s where the ridge of high pressure is. But the blue out West, that’s where the upper-level low pressure is, that’s where the energy is coming from,” he says. “And we’re going to continue to send pieces of energy through the West and the Southwest that will come out into the Plains that will benefit some areas; however, not everybody.”

The result is a narrow window of opportunity for precipitation.

“Texas into the Midwest looks to benefit from this the most,” Bledsoe says. “But if you look at the western High Plains—which desperately need the moisture right now—we’re still not in a great pattern to bring that moisture far enough northwest to benefit you. And that does include northwest Texas, northeast New Mexico.”

Signs of Improvement Into May

While the short-term outlook remains mixed, there are signals that conditions could begin shifting as spring progresses.

“If we look beyond that for that 30-day period—from, say, April 21st through May 21st—we start to see that dry signal diminish considerably in the middle part of the country,” Bledsoe says.

That doesn’t mean drought is gone, but it may begin to loosen its grip.

“We still stay fairly wet from Texas into the Midwest. We are still getting moisture across parts of the northern Plains,” he says. “But it’s really right there—southeast Wyoming, western Nebraska, eastern Colorado, western Kansas, down to the Panhandles and eastern New Mexico—where that dry signal kind of relaxes a little bit.”

For producers in those areas, that “relaxing” of dryness could be an early signal of a broader shift tied to El Niño.

“I think that’s kind of a tell to how the pattern is eventually going to evolve as we push into this El Niño by the time we head into May,” he says.

EURO seasonal model forecast for precipitation from May to June.

(WeatherBELL)

Historical Clues Offer Encouragement

Looking to the past can provide additional insight into what might lie ahead.

“If we look at the historical analogs here—1972, ’82, ’97, 2015, and 2023—those five years fit most closely with where we are right now,” Bledsoe says.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news,” says Bledsoe.

(NOAA Composite of previous comparison years for precipitation. )

And those years, according to Bledsoe, share an important trait for Plains agriculture.

“If you look at what the Plains do traditionally during May—they light up. They get much wetter than where they are right now. And that is certainly some good news.”

Model guidance is echoing that trend.

“The European seasonal model that just got released this week—that’s the May, June, July forecast—all of that green indicates precipitation anomalies that are wetter than average,” he says. “Even if they’re a little bit overdone, the situation is better than where we are right now from a historical basis.”

Temperature trends also offer some relief.

“When we look at the modeling from a temperature side of the coin here, we don’t see any extreme heat right there east of the mountains,” Bledsoe says. “The main heat signal pivots into the Pacific Northwest.”

Managing Expectations in Drought Conditions

Even with strong signals pointing toward El Niño, Bledsoe says improvement won’t happen overnight.

“Folks’ expectations have to be measured a little bit simply because we do have some dry soil and some drought to overcome,” he says.

The key question isn’t just whether rain comes—but how quickly it can make a difference. Still, once the pattern begins to shift, conditions could improve rapidly.

“Once we get things going, then I think it’s off to the races,” Bledsoe says. “It’s a matter of getting things going.”

A Longer-Term Shift Ahead

Regardless of whether it ultimately reaches “super” status, this El Niño event is expected to stick around.

“Even if it isn’t as strong as what some of the modeling is predicting—even if it’s just strong—that El Niño is likely going to continue into at least the first half of 2027,” Bledsoe says.

For producers who have endured multiple years of La Niña-driven variability, that could mark a meaningful, and potentially welcome change in the overall weather pattern. But for now, the focus remains on the coming weeks and whether the long-awaited shift begins in time to impact the 2026 growing season.

Winter Wheat Conditions Plunge as Drought Grips the Southern Plains

Tue, 07 Apr 2026 21:56:52 GMT

The 2026 winter wheat crop is off to a rocky start as dry conditions and harsh weather take a toll on production across the Southern Plains. According to USDA’s first Crop Progress report of the season, just 35% of the winter wheat crop is rated in good to excellent condition. It is a sharp decline from the 48% reported at this time last year.

While a third of the crop is rated fair, the situation is particularly dire in Texas, Oklahoma, Colorado and Nebraska following a combination of challenging winter conditions and persistent dry weather. “Things are looking pretty rough, as we get into the heart of this early growing season for 2026,” says USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey.

(United States Department of Agriculture)

Texas Facing Extreme Moisture Deficits

In Texas, the situation is especially critical, with more than half of the winter wheat rated poor to very poor. Rippey says the state recently endured its fourth-driest stretch from September to February in the last 131 years.

Cody Pruser, a farmer near Winters, Texas, says the recent moisture hasn’t been enough to save much of the crop. “We got some rain recently, but it’s all too late, wheat’s burned up and it’s not going to make a whole lot, it’ll be below average in most places,” Pruser says. His area received about 1.5 inches of rain last week — the first significant moisture since December.

However, the timing was far from ideal. “We’ve missed the February to March rains. We’re getting them toward the end of March, the first of April, but it seems like it’s a little too late. We had decent moisture when we planted, but not much after that,” he explains.

Drought Conditions Broaden Across the Plains

Data from the latest U.S. Drought Monitor confirms the severity of the situation. More than 95% of the Southern Plains are experiencing some level of drought or abnormal dryness. In Texas, Oklahoma and Colorado, that figure reaches nearly 100%.

Despite the moisture deficit, Pruser remains cautiously optimistic he will harvest a better crop than last year, though he notes disease pressure is now a growing concern. Pruser says the biggest concern for his wheat this year is damage from High Plains virus on wheat. He predicts about 10% of his crop is impacted, which means quite a few of his acres will be unable to be harvested.

“It’s really the main concern we have with our wheat going on right now. [There is] no way to control it, nothing really to do about it,” he says.

Driest spots in the U.S. over the last 180 days.

(Brad Rippey, USDA Meteorologist)

Rippey’s Weather Outlook

Rippey says the subsoil moisture in Kansas means the state could see a turnaround from drought. The 1" to 2" of rain expected to hit the southern great plains and lower Midwest could make a big difference. “Maybe for some of the earlier wheat on the Southern Plains, we can still turn the corner and bring back some yield potential,” he says.

However, Rippey isn’t sure Western acres, or those in the central Great Plains will be able to come back from dry conditions. “Wheat’s already heading out in the far South. When you look at the numbers coming in out of Oklahoma and Texas, there’s only so much recovery at this point you’re going to have,” he says.

Replant Or Ride It Out? How To Manage The Challenges Of Early-Planted Soybeans

Mon, 06 Apr 2026 16:32:01 GMT

A burst of early soybean planting across parts of the Corn Belt last week has some farmers feeling ahead of schedule, while others are already bracing for replant decisions and dealing with seed challenges.

Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie reports in central Illinois, the convergence of record early planting, heavy spring rains, and uneven seed quality is testing stand establishment. Farmers are now facing tough choices regarding which fields — and which seed lots — will make the cut.

“The past 10 days, a lot of soybeans went in the ground,” Ferrie says. “I believe this may be the most beans ever planted in March for our customer base. We planted some here at the Crop-Tech campus, and they went in very well.”

However, that promising start was quickly met with adverse weather.

Ponding, Cool Soils, And Replant Calls

In parts of Illinois, recent storms dumped 3" to 3.5" of rain in a single night, leading to widespread ponding. While many of those areas drained within 24 hours, the status of those early-planted soybeans remains uncertain.

“Only time will tell, but because soil temperatures remain cool, I expect most of the beans will survive,” Ferrie contends. “If it were saturated and hot, they would die off quickly. But in cool conditions, you’d be surprised how long they can last.”

Ferrie urges growers to stay disciplined: scout fields, evaluate stands, and avoid guessing.

“If you’re scouting ponded areas and find soft, discolored seed, we’ll obviously need to replant. The quicker we get them back in the ground, the better the yield potential. We still have time to replant and maintain an early bean advantage,” he notes.

Crusting: The Hidden Threat

While ponding areas are highly visible, Ferrie warns that soil crusting on conventionally tilled fields may pose a greater threat to late-March soybeans.

“The bigger job is monitoring conventional-till soybeans for crusting. Heavy rain can create a seal that slows or stops emergence,” he explains. While no-till soybeans typically face fewer issues, they are not immune to crusting challenges and still require monitoring.

Ferrie believes many growers underestimate the importance of timely intervention.

“We may need to help these March beans out of the ground. Get the rotary hoe ready,” he advises. “The time to break a crust is when it’s light and the bean is not yet pushing hard against it.”

Waiting too long can turn a simple pass into a stand-loss event. “If the crust hardens and the bean hypocotyls become swollen trying to push through, your chances of success drop significantly. The trick is to go early. If you wait until the beans are clearly in trouble, the rotary hoe won’t be able to save them,” Ferrie says.

Seed Quality Under the Microscope

Weather isn’t the only risk factor this spring; seed quality is also under scrutiny. Seed labs are reporting a wide range of saturated cold test results.

“Samples are coming back all over the board,” Ferrie reports. “We’ve seen saturated cold scores ranging from 95% down to 9%. I suspect the samples falling below 40% may be carryover seed from previous seasons.”

The low cold score numbers are causing ripples in the supply chain, with seed companies pulling questionable lots from the system. This has led to canceled orders or last-minute substitutions for may growers.

“While it’s frustrating to not get the exact genetics you ordered, this is good seed stewardship,” Ferrie says. “Your supplier is doing the right thing by pulling that seed before it becomes a stand disaster in your field.”

Ferrie attributes these quality issues to last season’s production challenges, including heavy disease pressure and late-season drought.

Action Plan For Next Steps

Ferrie outlines several practical steps to help farmers manage the current volatility with seed quality and planting:

Scout Aggressively: Dig for seed in ponded spots for evaluation. If the seed is mushy or discolored, make the replant call early.
Ready the Rotary Hoe: Be prepared to move as soon as a crust begins to form. Ferrie refers to this as “Hoe before you know.”
Monitor Seed Tests: Work closely with your dealer to ensure you are planting high-quality lots.
Be Flexible with Genetics: A sound, high-quality substitute is better than a preferred variety with poor vigor.
Use Rain Delays Wisely: Focus on equipment maintenance and planter calibration so you are ready to roll when conditions improve.

Hear more of Ken Ferrie’s agronomic insights in this week’s Boots In The Field podcast:

Boost Your Bottom Line By Keeping Your Soils In Place

Wed, 01 Apr 2026 20:20:39 GMT

Not every cost on the farm shows up on an invoice. In the view of Eric Beckett, some of the most expensive losses corn and soybean growers face this spring will be invisible — soil carried away by winds moving across their fields.

Beckett, an agronomist with Sunrise FS, says a combination of windier springs, tighter margins and volatile fertilizer prices is forcing a reckoning with long-standing tillage and nutrient application habits. The goal for farmers, he contends, shouldn’t be just agronomic performance this season but risk management, as well.

“Anytime we drag a piece of tillage equipment across the field, we are essentially breaking down that soil aggregate into smaller aggregates,” Beckett says. “That makes soil more susceptible to loss.”

While Beckett isn’t calling for an end to tillage, he is urging farmers in Illinois and beyond to consider the “ramifications coming down the road” before making multiple passes to clean up winter annuals or level tile lines.

A Growing Storm in the Midwest

Beckett’s concerns are grounded in shifting weather patterns. Meteorologists like Victor Gensini at Northern Illinois University have noted a rise in the frequency of convective storms and damaging straight-line winds across the Midwest and Southeast.

Likewise, Nutrien principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass reports that the Midwest is in a rapid transition from La Niña to ENSO-neutral conditions. While this “swift exit” can open planting windows, it also creates erratic atmospheric patterns. High-velocity winds are expected to surge through the Mississippi and Missouri River valleys through early April.

Beckett offers a concerned reminder for farmers tempted to push through windy conditions: “You’ve paid good money for that fertilizer. Why would we go out there when it’s windy and we have no idea where that fertilizer is going to end up, especially if it’s a variable-rate application where we know specific areas of a field need those nutrients?”

Calculating the True Cost of a Pass

Beyond the risk of blowing nutrients, Beckett suggests farmers “crunch the numbers” on the physical cost of every pass. With diesel prices hovering around $5 a gallon currently and tractor leases reaching $300 to $400 per hour, the overhead of extra tillage adds up quickly.

Beyond hard costs, tillage in what are currently dry soils will create additional costs. Beckett describes the ground in his area as “dry as a bone” six to eight feet down.

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, this isn’t just an east-central Illinois issue: 41% of the U.S. corn-producing area and 42% of soybean acreage are currently experiencing some degree of drought. In droughty conditions, every unnecessary tillage pass further dries out the seedbed and can impact topsoil.

Navigating the Label and the Law

Wind doesn’t just steal nutrients; it creates significant legal liability. Most herbicide labels cap applications at 10 mph—a limit that is a legally binding mandate for many products, not a suggestion.

“If you are applying outside those windows and something goes wrong, you can be held liable,” Beckett cautions. To navigate these tighter windows, he suggests focusing on three tactical areas:

Carrier Volume: Increasing from 5 or 10 gallons per acre to 15 or 20 gallons can improve coverage and reduce the risk of fine, drift-prone droplets.
The Dust Factor: Even if winds are within legal limits, fine soil particles can “tie up” product and carry it off-target before it even hits the ground.
Drift-Reduction Tools: While not a license to spray in a gale, modern spray tips and drift-reduction agents are underutilized tools that can significantly improve stewardship.

The New Era Of Documentation

As new requirements tied to the Endangered Species Act take hold, Beckett says the burden of proof for compliance falls squarely on the applicator—whether that is the farmer or a custom applicator.

“Each field has got to have its own documentation,” he says. “Even if it’s just a manila folder... fill out what your mitigation practices are, what your setbacks are. Have that established in a file so the applicator can add to it as the season progresses.”

This level of detail is necessary because the industry is “under the microscope.” In an era where every passerby has a smartphone camera, Beckett says an application in a dusty field can end up on social media in minutes.

Ultimately, Beckett is asking farmers to make a deliberate pause to question habits and routine applications.

“I’m not standing here saying that everybody’s got to put cover crops on and turn every field green,” he says. “But if, collectively, everybody took it a little bit more upon themselves, I think we’d be in a lot better shape.”

Beckett addresses the topic of managing tillage and spray applications in unpredictable weather conditions during a recent episode of the Illinois Field Advisor podcast. You can watch the complete podcast here .

Solving The Sulfur Shortage In High-Yield Soybean Systems

Mon, 16 Mar 2026 16:45:27 GMT

As more farmers push to plant soybeans early, one nutrient is emerging as a valuable difference-maker in the crop: sulfur. The macronutrient is helping deliver some of the largest yield responses Shaun Casteel says he has seen in recent field trials.

“Never would you think you’d see double-digit results, let alone 20-bushel numbers in soybean yield from one treatment,” says Casteel, Purdue University agronomist and Extension soybean specialist.

Yet that’s exactly what he has documented in some Indiana fields where supplemental sulfur was applied, especially in early planted soybean fields.

Why Sulfur Matters More Now

Sulfur is required by all crops, but Casteel says soybean needs are unique compared with grass crops like corn. In soybeans, sulfur is critical as a co-factor for nodulation, the biological process that allows soybean plants to use atmospheric nitrogen (N).

“If we don’t have good sulfur supply, we don’t have good nodulation and fixation,” Casteel explains. “If you’re sold short on nitrogen in soybeans, you’re sold short on yield in a major way.”

Historically, sulfur came “free” from the atmosphere and also from mineralization of organic matter in the soil. Cleaner air regulations have reduced atmospheric deposition, and Casteel says many farmers are starting to see sulfur shortages that weren’t obvious just as recently as a decade ago.

Historically, sulfur was readily available to soybeans via atmospheric deposition (acid rain) from industrial emissions, providing 10 to 30 lbs./acre annually. Due to the 1970 Clean Air Act reducing emissions by over 95%, this “free” source has disappeared, making sulfur supplementation essential to prevent deficiencies, especially on sandy soils, according to University Extension.

(Shaun Casteel)

The classic high-response situations for sulfur — coarse-textured, sandy soils with less than 2% organic matter — still stand out. But Casteel’s work is showing the story for sulfur doesn’t end there.

“I also have fields that are flat and black as a table, with 4% organic matter, where we’re getting sizable yield differences,” he says.

Early Planting Amplifies Sulfur Response

Casteel links some of the most dramatic sulfur responses to a broader trend across the country: earlier soybean planting.

In Indiana, planting patterns have shifted sharply in recent years. Soybeans that once went in the ground two weeks after corn are now being planted within a day or two of corn — and in many cases, are planted first.

Early planting improves yield potential by giving soybeans more time to develop nodes and reproductive branches. But it can also expose a weakness in the natural sulfur supply.

For those farmers chasing higher yielding soybeans, Shaun Casteel believes the use of supplemental sulfur deserves more consideration.

(Shaun Casteel)

Casteel points out that mineralization of sulfur from soil organic matter depends on microbial activity and warm temperatures. When soybeans are planted in late April or early May, Indiana soils – as week as soils in other states – are often too cool for the microbes to release much sulfur.

“In those cooler conditions, that mineralization really isn’t occurring,” he says.

Across multiple studies where planting date was combined with sulfur use, Casteel has seen consistently stronger responses in early-planted soybeans.

“We’ve got years that we’re averaging an 8- to 11-bushel response on prairie soil,” he says. In these trials, sulfur was (e.g., ammonium sulfate, pelletized gypsum, ammonium thiosulfate) applied pre at 20 pounds per acre during a 5-year period.

Beyond Fertility: A Surprising Disease Connection

Sulfur’s role may extend beyond delivering nutrition and helping fix nitrogen in soybeans. Casteel and his research team are seeing signs that sulfur helps reduce the severity of sudden death syndrome (SDS) in soybeans.

In a 2023 soybean trial, as Casteel began rating symptoms of SDS, he noticed a clear difference between sulfur-treated and untreated strips.

“We had good conditions for SDS development — cool, wet conditions during early vegetative growth. We had a marked, substantial reduction in SDS in those areas that had the sulfur treatment,” he recalls.

The unexpected result prompted a deeper look in 2024, when Casteel worked with Plant Pathologist Darcy Telenko on trials that combined planting dates, sulfur rates and SDS inoculation. Early data from those studies pointed in the same direction: soybeans receiving sulfur showed reduced disease expression.

“Beyond the fertility effect, beyond the fixation-boosting capacity that comes with this, there is evidence that we have some disease control or suppression,” Casteel says, cautioning that the results are still based on only a few years of data.

“If you really think about it, the first fungicides on the market 100 years ago were sulfur-based, so it’s not too surprising that we might be seeing something here,” he adds.

Big Upsides Where Sulfur Use Fills The Gap

Casteel is careful to note that the sulfur response in soybeans is often site-specific. Classic sandy soils and low-organic-matter fields are prime candidates for the nutrient. But his work suggests that even high-organic-matter fields can show strong gains when sulfur is limiting.

(Shaun Casteel)

That variability doesn’t dampen his enthusiasm. Instead, he sees sulfur as a high-upside tool for intensive soybean managers who already have the basics — variety selection, disease packages, and timely planting — under control.

“It’s fun to have treatments out there that are providing hope and promise,” Casteel says. “We’re seeing numbers with sulfur that really move the needle.”

With earlier planting becoming the norm and biological sulfur supply under pressure, Casteel expects interest in using Sulfur to keep growing. For those growers chasing 100-bushel soybeans, especially, he believes sulfur deserves more consideration as they develop fertility plans.

“If you have not explored sulfur on your soybean crops, I suggest applying strips of S fertilizer that is soluble (e.g., ammonium sulfate, pelletized gypsum, ammonium thiosulfate) between 15- to 25-pounds of S per acre to determine if you have fields or production practices that are responsive to boosting nodulation and N fixation,” he recommends. “Applications can be applied mid-March through planting with higher rates the earlier you apply the S fertilizer.”

More information on Casteel’s research results with sulfur in soybeans is available here .

Is A Nitrogen Inhibitor Worth The Cost?

Wed, 11 Mar 2026 20:34:06 GMT

Nitrogen inhibitors, often referred to as stabilizers, are increasingly used by farmers looking to protect their fertilizer investments and maintain yields amid increasingly erratic weather.

There are two primary types of nitrogen inhibitors in the marketplace today: urease inhibitors and nitrification inhibitors.

Nitrification inhibitors such as nitrapyrin, DCD, and pronitridine have been developed to delay the conversion of nitrogen fertilizers into nitrate, according to Fabian Fernandez, University of Minnesota Extension nutrient management specialist.

“The reason we want to delay transformation to nitrate is that nitrate can leach below the root zone or be denitrified if there is excessive precipitation,” Fernandez reports.

University of Minnesota researchers have evaluated nitrogen inhibitors as well as numerous enhanced efficiency fertilizer products.

(Fabian Fernandez)

Urease inhibitors such as NBPT and NPPT delay the conversion of urea into ammonia. “We want to prevent nitrogen transformation to ammonia as this too will end up in the environment and not available to the crop. In this case, though, the loss happens as ammonia goes off as a gas to the atmosphere,” he says.

As the 2026 season gets underway, here are two key reasons to consider using a nitrogen inhibitor:

1. Maximize Nitrogen Efficiency

Inhibitors delay the conversion of ammonium-N to nitrate-N, which reduces nitrogen loss via leaching and denitrification, increasing N availability for crops and boosting yields by 5% to 12%, according to Bob Nielsen, Purdue University agronomist and professor emeritus.

Furthermore, because inhibitors slow down the nitrogen conversion process the nutrients stay in the root zone and available to crops longer – up to eight weeks depending on the product used, according to Corteva Agriscience.

2. Keep Nitrogen In The Field

Early in the season, heavy rains and warming soil temperatures can contribute to significant nitrogen loss. With spring applications, research shows soil can lose more than 20% of its total nitrogen after just one or two rain events, according to Heather Vosburgh, nitrogen stabilizer strategic account manager, Corteva Agriscience.

The concern for potential N runoff is why Tyler Wiltfang , a fourth-generation farmer, near Oregon, Ill., says he uses an inhibitor in early spring, prior to planting corn.

“Some of our fields are very close to a creek, and we don’t want that [nitrogen] going other places,” says Wiltfang, who grows corn and soybeans on the same land his great grandfather bought in 1929.

“It’s important to be thinking about the environmental impact, because we have to take care of the ground to grow our crop,” Wiltfang adds. “If the soil isn’t up to par, and we’re not doing our part, we’re not going to have a good crop using a nitrogen stabilizer, such as Instinct.”

With meteorologists predicting an active weather pattern across the Eastern Corn Belt this spring delivering excess moisture that could delay early planting, farmers in those areas might want to be prepared to use an inhibitor.

When To Pass On Using An Inhibitor?

There’s at least one scenario when you don’t need to use a urease inhibitor — when you make a broadcast application of urea that is immediately incorporated by tillage at least 2” in the soil, Fernandez reports in this online video and article.

“If you were concerned about nitrogen loss from a pre-plant application, I would not use urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN) and include a nitrification inhibitor to protect the investment,” he says. “While the nitrification inhibitor will provide protection, 25% of the application is already nitrate in this fertilizer source and the inhibitor will do nothing to protect nitrate from leaching or denitrification loss. It would be a much better idea to use the inhibitor with a urea application.”

On the other hand, Fernandez says using a urease inhibitor when urea is surface-applied in a high crop-residue field, or a nitrification inhibitor or polymer-coated urea in fields or portions of fields that tend to be wet, is most likely to increase the chance that you see a benefit from your investment.

Agronomic specialists like Fernandez emphasize that nitrogen stabilizers are not stand-alone solutions. They are most effective when integrated into a broader nitrogen management strategy that includes realistic yield goals, soil testing, attention to soil type and drainage, and thoughtful decisions on application rate and timing.

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:47:18 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

Early Planting Unlikely for Much of Eastern Corn Belt as Wet Pattern Dominates Spring Outlook

Mon, 09 Mar 2026 19:26:20 GMT

While some farmers may be enjoying the recent stretch of unusually warm temperatures, the broader spring weather pattern suggests early planting will likely be difficult across much of the eastern half of the country.

Matt Griffin, meteorologist with BAM Weather, says the start of March brings temperatures well above seasonal averages in many areas, particularly across the southeastern U.S. But those warmer temperatures are coming alongside an extremely active weather pattern that continues to deliver frequent rainfall.

The forecast points to an active moisture track from the eastern half of the country through March 12th.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather )

“Over the next week or so, it’s just going to be very warm,” Griffin says. “It’s going to continue to be very warm and very active.”

Griffin says the warmth is widespread across the eastern half of the country. In some areas of the eastern Ag Belt, temperatures are running significantly above normal for early March.

“We’re starting off March on a very warm note,” he says. “In fact, some of those colors into the eastern Ag Belt, the eastern U.S., in some spots 20 degrees above normal.”

However, the bigger concern for farmers isn’t the temperature. It’s the amount of precipitation expected to accompany the pattern.

Griffin says forecasts show a wide swath of rainfall stretching from Texas into the Ohio Valley, with some areas expected to see multiple inches of rain in a short period of time.

“With this pattern coming, a lot of rain,” he says. “In fact, you can see this corridor of rain from near Dallas stretching into the Ohio Valley.”

Flooding Concerns Already Building

Some parts of the eastern Midwest could see particularly heavy totals.

“The folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, lots of rain,” Griffin says. “That area of pink there suggests amounts of three-plus inches of rain.”

In parts of the region, the ground is already saturated from recent systems. Griffin says the combination of previous rainfall and additional storms raises concerns about flooding. He adds that the areas receiving the heaviest precipitation could continue to deal with high water issues.

“I think anywhere you see the purples and the pink colors, and especially the blue areas, we’re going to have a continuation of flooding issues as well,” Griffin says.

Mid-March Cold Front Brings Another Shift

Even though the opening stretch of March is unseasonably warm, Griffin says that warmth likely won’t last the entire month.

A colder air mass is expected to push through the country around the middle of March.

The forecast points to an extremely mild pattern for the western half of the U.S. in March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“The warmer temperatures I don’t think are here to stay necessarily,” Griffin says. “If we look at the following week’s pattern, this is around March 13th to the 19th, we do see a cold front that passes through.”

That cold front will help bring temperatures closer to normal across portions of the eastern Corn Belt, he says.

“It will help, especially for some of you folks in the Eastern Ag Belt, really knock down those temperatures a little bit,” Griffin says.

In addition to cooler temperatures, the system could bring another round of precipitation and even some late-season winter weather for northern areas.

“This would be a window for a sneaky wintery weather threat,” he says. “The Northern Plains into the Great Lakes, through Michigan and into the interior Northeast—not impossible.”

Active Storm Track Through March

Even beyond that system, Griffin says the broader weather pattern remains active through the remainder of March, especially in the eastern half of the country.

“Once again, I’m going to sound a little bit like a broken record,” Griffin says. “The Eastern Ag Belt and the Northeast, where the rain I think can be above normal in those spots.”

The active storm track could also bring severe weather risks at times as the region transitions deeper into spring.

Above normal to much above normal precipitation is in the forecast for the eastern part of the U.S., along with the northern tier of the country, as we finish March.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

“At times, not only this week but last week as well, there is some potential severe weather associated with this as we head into the first half of March,” he says.

Looking further into the month, Griffin says the divide between wetter eastern areas and drier western regions becomes more pronounced.

“Later into March, I do think we continue to see this active weather pattern into the Eastern Ag Belt in particular,” he says.

Forecast maps show significantly above-normal precipitation stretching from Ohio southward through Kentucky and Tennessee.

“Our latest forecast shows much above normal rains into Ohio, down into Kentucky, into Tennessee,” Griffin says.

Because of the ongoing storm activity, he says it would not be surprising to see additional severe weather events during the period.

“That active weather pattern remains,” he says. “Wouldn’t be shocked to see some bouts of severe weather.”

Meanwhile, conditions further west are trending in the opposite direction.

“It’s going to be a bit of an Ag Belt divided,” Griffin says. “Wet east, dry to the west.”

Temperatures are also expected to fluctuate frequently as the pattern evolves.

“We’re going to see ups and downs in our temperatures,” Griffin says. “I do think it’ll be a little bit of a roller coaster ride.”

He points to another cooler stretch likely developing around the third week of March.

“We get around March 18th through the 22nd, it’s probably going to be a little colder,” he says.

El Niño Influence Builds Into Spring

As the calendar turns to April, Griffin says longer-range indicators show an emerging El Niño pattern beginning to influence weather across the United States.

“What I think starts to occur is we start to feel a little more influence of our emerging El Niño,” Griffin says.

April’s weather pattern is shaping up to be divided, with below normal precipitation for parts of the West, and above normal precip in the South, along the Atlantic Coast and in the Northeast.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

That shift could move the corridor of heavier rainfall slightly farther south and east.

“What that’s going to do is shift the above-normal rains a little bit further to the south and to the east,” he says.

Areas such as northeastern Texas and the Tennessee and Kentucky River valleys may see an increased focus for precipitation.

“Where I think the focus of the rain will be is areas into say northeastern Texas into the Tennessee, Kentucky River valleys and some of those areas as well,” Griffin says.

Even so, parts of the central Corn Belt could still see periodic rain events.

“If you’re in areas eastern Iowa to Ohio, I still think there’s some rainfall opportunities there,” he says.

Watching Frost and Moisture Into May

Temperature patterns may also turn somewhat cooler in parts of the Plains during April.

“I do think this will be a little bit of a colder pattern, especially for some of you folks in the Northwestern Plains into the Northern Plains,” Griffin says.

He also says early April could bring the possibility of additional late-season winter weather in some regions.

“We may have some early April sneaky winter events as well,” he says.

May looks to turn dry in the heart of the U.S., with below normal temperatures in the east and heat in the West.

(Matt Griffin, BAM Weather)

By May, the broader weather pattern may shift again as the El Niño signal strengthens.

“I think the colder air that we talked about in April does start to bleed to the east,” Griffin says.

At that point, rainfall may concentrate more heavily across the southern tier of the country.

“We continue to see this transition more into this El Niño,” he says. “The southern jet stream is just going to be a little bit more energetic.”

That setup could bring above-normal rainfall to the desert Southwest, Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S.

“I think that’s where the rain, above normal rains, are going to be more focused,” Griffin says.

Meanwhile, parts of the Plains may trend drier as spring progresses.

“You can see much below normal at this point into areas into the Plains—the Northern Plains, the Central Plains,” he says.

Despite those shifts, Griffin says the temperature outlook for May does not currently suggest extreme heat.

“At this point we’re not talking about any extreme temperatures one way or the other,” he says.

He notes the dryness across parts of the western Ag Belt could become a concern if it persists.

“All of the outlooks I mentioned out further to the west and to the Western Ag Belt were relatively dry,” Griffin says.

Still, he says there is at least some positive news in the seasonal outlook.

“I guess if there’s one silver lining… I don’t think we’re talking necessarily about extreme heat at this time,” he says.

One additional factor farmers will be watching closely is the possibility of a late spring frost in northern areas.

“I do think we need to watch May as far as late frost concerns,” Griffin says.

Regions such as the Northern Plains, Michigan and the Northeast may face the greatest risk.

“Those would be areas at risk for a late frost,” he says.

However, Griffin says the broader Corn Belt may largely avoid that issue this year.

“For much of the Ag Belt, to be honest, I just think this year we largely avoid that risk,” he says.

Bottom Line for Planting

For many growers, though, the biggest immediate concern is the wet start to the planting season.

With repeated storms expected across the eastern Corn Belt, Griffin says field conditions will likely remain too wet to support widespread early planting.

“Especially east of Iowa, it’s just not going to happen in my opinion,” Griffin says.

He says the persistent rainfall throughout March and April makes early fieldwork unlikely in many areas.

“It’s just too wet for March, too much rain in April,” Griffin says. “I just don’t think it’s going to happen.”

As La Niña Looks to Make One of Its Quickest Exits on Record, Strong El Niño Signals Are Now Brewing

Mon, 02 Mar 2026 19:58:38 GMT

A rapid shift in the Pacific Ocean could soon reshape weather patterns across U.S. farm country, and according to Eric Snodgrass, it’s unfolding faster than anything he’s witnessed in his career.

Speaking to U.S. Farm Report during Commodity Classic, the senior science fellow for Nutrien Ag Solutions said the current La Niña pattern is collapsing at remarkable speed.

“It’s happening fast, actually, very rapid,” Snodgrass says. “In fact, in my career, I don’t think I’ve ever seen a La Niña die as fast as this one.”

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event.

Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. pic.twitter.com/mvfA6kcNHx
— Eric Webb (@webberweather) March 2, 2026

That quick exit is raising a much bigger question: How quickly does El Niño take hold, and how strong does it become? It’s the answers to those questions that could shape the moisture picture for crops and pasture this spring and summer.

But it’s something all meteorologists are watching as it’s likely this year’s El Niño coudl be a strong event.

Plains Dryness Still Front and Center

Current soil moisture across the U.S. shows areas of the Midwest and South are in desperate need of moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Even as ocean temperatures shift, drought concerns remain very real across portions of the Plains.

“I’m very concerned about snowpacking the Rockies,” Snodgrass says. “I’m concerned about the snowpack on the river system that feeds into the Platte River system through Nebraska, which is very, very dry. And the whole Mississippi is still low right now.”

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor shows shows much every state except California, North Dakota and parts of the Ohio Valley region are seeing some level of drought entering into March.

(U.S. Drought Monitor )

Portions of the U.S. have seen some moisture relief this winter, while other parts of the country are in desperate need of moisture heading into spring.

“So we’ve solved some major issues that need to be overcome,” he says. “But spring can do that. The question’s going to be, does it happen in time?”

Timing, he emphasizes, is everything. He points to last year as an example of how quickly conditions can turn around.

“Don’t forget, last year when we were at Commodity Classic, there were dust storms coming out of Texas. There was a dust storm through parts of Kansas,” Snodgrass says. “We were talking the same story, and by May, it was all erased. So I have to learn to be patient in spring. Just remember that spring can undo all of winter’s problems in a heartbeat, and that’s where we sit right now.”

Still, patience doesn’t mean ignoring the warning signs. He cautions to keep a close eye on drought pockets across the Plains.

If you look at the precipitation since November, it shows the locations that have seen the driest winter months.

(IEM)

Models Going “After Very Aggressive Rainfall”

As La Niña fades, ocean waters across the tropical Pacific are warming. That warming is already influencing long-range model projections.

“The issue here is how quickly do we get El Niño-like behavior, and what you’re going to notice is because all of the weather forecast models make the ocean temperatures very warm on both sides of North America, they’re all going after very aggressive rainfall,” says Snodgrass.

He described current precipitation outlooks as above normal precipitation for much of the country this summer.

“If you looked at a map right now of the forecast precip for the summer, it’s just like wet for everybody except for Arizona,” he says.

But Snodgrass warned that such widespread wet signals deserve scrutiny.

“That’s always concerning because anytime I see the model swing for the fences, I’m like, ‘OK, I’ve seen it lose before.’ I want to make sure that I really see how things shape up,” he says.

Forecasted precip in the middle of March shows signs if change for the Delta.

(Eric Snodgrass )

He does believe some areas are likely to see meaningful relief.

“I think they’re going to see quite a bit of rain,” he says, referring to areas from the Plains into the Delta and Mid-South. “I think we’re going to get some severe weather out of it.”

“I think we’re going to be wiping out drought throughout the Delta parts of the Southeast and maybe as far back as southern Texas,” he adds. “So it may be raining here very, very soon, with some nasty storms, too.”

The 14-day precip outlook shows areas from Texas through the East could see some heavy moisture.

(Eric Snodgrass)

AccuWeather: El Niño is Brewing

Forecasters at AccuWeather are also seeing signals that El Niño is forming.

“The trends support El Niño developing late this spring to early this summer,” AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Chat Merrill says in a recent outlook.

However, forecasters caution that this time of year presents forecasting challenges known as the “spring predictability barrier,” when long-range models are often less reliable.

“Typically, the stronger the signal, the more confidence on impacts for a typical El Niño season,” says AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist Jason Nicholls. “There are early signs in the Pacific Ocean that El Niño is starting to develop, but this change is slow, and there are still several months for it to fully develop.”

That slower, steady development described by AccuWeather stands alongside Snodgrass’ observation that La Niña itself is collapsing unusually fast, creating a transition period that farmers will need to monitor closely.

Bam Weather: Similar to 2023, Moderate by Summer

Bret Walts, meteorologist with BAM Weather , agrees this is one of the quicker La Niña exits in recent decades, though he sees parallels to a more recent season.

“It is one of the faster ones in the past 20-plus years, but very similar to 2023, a more recent year,” Walts says. “I see a lot of similarities to that year ahead.”

Walts expects El Niño conditions to be firmly in place by late May or early summer.

“We will be in El Niño by late May / early summer and nearing moderate territory by the end of summer,” he said. “I do think we can make a run at strong territory, but it would be more into fall.”

Even if the event peaks at moderate strength during the growing season, Walts says it would still influence temperature and moisture trends.

“A moderate El Niño would aid in less substantial heat as we head into summer,” he explains. “These years tend to actually run a bit cooler — so less GDUs — especially for the eastern belt.”

However, cooler doesn’t necessarily mean wetter everywhere.

“They can suppress moisture in the Upper Midwest, especially early in the season, and pose drier risks,” Walts says. “But they also favor timely rains as we head through mid- to late summer.”

Overall, he sees more upside than downside for crop production.

“While a few localized areas could get drier, it’s a setup that is favorable for many in terms of growing conditions,” Walts says.

Could This Be a Strong El Niño Like 2015?

Snodgrass says ocean temperature projections suggest the event could strengthen significantly.

“I think right now we’re looking at ocean temperatures that could be more than a degree and a half above average, and if you look historically, the last time we saw this would have been 2015, and that was a big one,” says Snodgrass.

The last event of that magnitude was the powerful El Niño, which significantly altered global weather patterns.
But Snodgrass cautioned against assuming a repeat.

“2023 was the most recent El Niño event, but the timing was way different,” he says. “So I don’t know that we can draw a direct correlation. I don’t know if there’s a good precedent for like, ‘Oh, go look at this year.’ And so as a result, we’re all going to be just watching it carefully to see how it transitions.”

What Farmers Should Watch

For producers, the message is to stay vigilant, according to Snodgrass. He says to

Watch the drought pockets in the Plains.
Watch the snowpack and river systems.
Watch how quickly El Niño-like behavior begins influencing storm tracks.

Because if Snodgrass is right, and this is indeed the fastest La Niña exit of his career, then 2026 may hinge on how quickly the Pacific Ocean rewrites the script for moisture this spring and summer.

When Weird Corn Ears Wreck the Bottom Line

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 19:58:07 GMT

Abnormal corn ears may look like a cosmetic problem, but depending on the severity, they can deliver a significant hit to yield, reports Osler Ortez, Ohio State University corn specialist.

“If a field is managed for 200-bushel corn but only delivers 100 bushels because abnormal ears dominate, then every pound of nitrogen, every inch of irrigation and every pass you make across that field becomes much harder to justify,” he says.

Yield losses from abnormal corn ears can range from 35% to 91% in affected plants, with typical field-wide impacts often trailing lower, Ortez reports.

For reference, an “average” corn ear generally produces 16 kernel rows with about 800 kernels per ear, according to the Iowa State Extension.

Irregularities such as zipper ears (shown below), earless plants or multiple ears, reduce grain yield through poor kernel set, abortion or reduced kernel weight.

A common abnormality called zipper ear is caused by kernel abortion or failed pollination. The issue is often triggered by severe environmental stress during early grain fill or pollination from factors including drought, high heat or nutrient deficiency.

(R. L. Nielsen, professor emeritus and Purdue University Corn Specialist, retired)

Ortez emphasizes no single factor explains abnormal ear development. It’s nearly always the result of an interaction between three factors that corn researchers refer to as GEM:
G — Genetics (hybrid)

E — Environment (weather, stress)

M — Management (practices)

He adds that understanding when the stress is happening, the timing of it, is also important. For instance, early-season stress can limit ear initiation and potential ear number, while midseason issues impact pollination and kernel set. Late-season stress reduces kernel fill and overall weight.

Strategic Management Levers

While the weather can’t be controlled, Ortez says understanding the GEM interaction gives corn growers more leverage than they realize.

He lists three management decisions that can help growers mitigate the risk of abnormal ear development:

1. Evaluate the genetics: Treating hybrid selection as a defensive tool against ear problems — right alongside disease tolerance and standability — is one of the clearest ways to lower risk.

2. Pick a recommended seeding rate: In Nebraska field trials, Ortez observed abnormal ears increased at both ends of the seeding rate spectrum.

“Chasing a few extra bushels with aggressive populations, especially on drought-prone or otherwise stressed acres, often backfired when stress hit at the wrong time,” he notes. Conversely, pulling populations too low also created conditions where ear development went off track.

3. Consider the planting date: Researchers found planting hybrids outside the optimal window — either very early into cold, wet conditions or very late into heat and moisture stress — made it more likely sensitive growth stages would line up with damaging stress. Matching planting date to local recommendations and the strengths of a given hybrid proved to be an important way to reduce those risky overlaps.

Ultimately, by tuning into GEM, farmers can better safeguard their investments. As Ortez points out, the more sides of that triangle a farmer can stabilize or improve, the less likely a season’s worth of hard work and inputs will be undone by a field of problem ears.

Hear Ortez share more of his research on abnormal ear development in a recent podcast sponsored by the Crop Protection Network.

Why the Southern Plains Became a ‘Perfect Recipe’ for Wildfires

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 21:29:07 GMT

Farmers and ranchers across the Plains are dealing with the aftermath of devastating wildfires .

According to Drovers , fast-moving Ranger Road Fire has already scorched more than 283,000 acres in northern Oklahoma and southern Kansas since last week. The Oklahoma Department of Agriculture said Monday it’s now 65% contained, but the devastation has charred thousands of pasture and farmland, also killing an unknown number of cattle.

Flames spread across Oklahoma, Texas, Kansas, Colorado and New Mexico since last week. While March through April is typically wildfire season in Kansas, conditions across the Plains are creating conditions that are fueling the flames.

According to Brian Bledsoe of Brian Bledsoe Weather, the devastation is the result of a “worst-case scenario” pattern that has been building for months.

A Windy Season Meets Dry Fuels

Bledsoe says in order to understand why conditions are so ripe for wildfires this year, the calendar alone raises red flags.

“From February through early to mid-April, that’s traditionally when we see some of these higher-end wind events,” he explains. “But it’s not just about the wind. It’s about what the wind and fire combine to burn.”

The Southern Plains experienced adequate to above-average moisture over parts of the region during the past year. However, that broader window masks a sharp turn toward dryness in recent months.

When looking at the last 180 days, moisture held on in portions of the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas. But conditions deteriorated quickly moving south into the Texas Panhandle. Over the past 90 days, dryness expanded northward into the heart of the wildfire zone.

90-day precip map for the Plains

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather )

Zooming in further, the last 30 days tell the most concerning story. Some locations in the Oklahoma Panhandle and southwest Kansas have received just 5% to 20% of average precipitation.

That rapid drying followed a warm-season growing period that produced ample vegetation. Once cured and left without additional moisture or snow cover, those grasses became prime fuel.

“You grow up all that vegetation during the warm season, then you dry it out and don’t get anything else to keep it somewhat wet so it doesn’t burn. It’s a perfect recipe,” Bledsoe says.

Precipitation over the past 30 days.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

Wildfires in the Plains

The setup isn’t without precedent. In late February 2024, the Smokehouse Creek Fire burned more than a million acres in the Canadian River Valley of the Texas Panhandle under similar conditions, which were strong winds, above-average warmth and critically dry fuels.

“This is not unprecedented for the Western High Plains this time of year,” Bledsoe notes. “It’s just the worst-case scenario when you put all those things together.”

Little Relief in the Forecast

Unfortunately for producers hoping for moisture, the near-term outlook offers limited help.

Over the next 10 days, much of the U.S. is expected to trend drier than average. The only notably wet areas are projected to be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. Meanwhile, above-average temperatures are likely to persist across much of the Plains, with colder air remaining locked in Canada.

The short-term forecast shows little relief for much of the U.S.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

Above normal temperatures could also pose a problem for producers in the West and Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

“This pattern is not going to be that favorable to grace those areas that we’re dealing with the wildfires with any real significant moisture,” Bledsoe says. “In fact, you see a pretty good chunk of the U.S. that will likely see just drier than average conditions for that 10-day period. Not necessarily dry for everybody, but drier than average. The only really wet areas will be in Northern California and the Pacific Northwest. And we’re going to revert back to the warmth too.”

Looking ahead to March, extended European model guidance suggests a continuation of the pattern: dry conditions across California, Arizona, New Mexico and much of Texas and the Southwest High Plains, with wetter conditions developing farther east.

The extended forecast shows little relief across the Plains.

(Brian Bledsoe, Brian Bledsoe Weather)

March is often a volatile month, Bledsoe says, bringing sharp contrasts between “haves” and “have-nots” in terms of precipitation.

“You’re going to the haves farther east, and then areas farther south and west that have been kind of shut out are probably going struggle a little bit. And time, I know it only takes one storm to change this narrative here in the Western High Plains to cover the ground with snow or put more moisture in the ground or kind of turn the corner,” he says. “But right now this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”

Bledsoe knows more than anyone that the forecast can change, but the set-up right now doesn’t look favorable for moisture in the Plains through March.

“It only takes one storm to change the narrative, to cover the ground with snow or put meaningful moisture back into the soil,” he says. “But right now, this pattern is not conducive to bringing one of those significant storms into the fray.”

For livestock producers and farmers across the High Plains, that means continued vigilance. With cured grasses, persistent wind and limited precipitation in the forecast, wildfire risk may remain elevated as the region moves deeper into its traditional spring wind season.

Smart Strategies for Topdressing Dry Fertilizer

Mon, 23 Feb 2026 20:11:49 GMT

If you’re topdressing corn acres this spring with dry fertilizer, keep in mind how that product is managed in a high-residue system will determine whether the fertilizer feeds your crop or disappears into thin air.

Ken Ferrie notes that farmers in his area, central Illinois, commonly use ammonium sulfate, urea and potash for topdressing. He says every hour untreated urea sits on the field surface is a chance for the nitrogen (N) in the fertilizer to gas off and disappear.

“The ammonium sulfate is stable, but the urea has potential to get away when it breaks down,” explains Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

That “getting away” is nitrogen loss caused through volatilization—when N escapes as ammonia gas instead of being captured in the soil as ammonium. In a corn-on-corn rotation, with a lot of stalks and leaves on the field surface for instance, the risk for volatilization is even higher.

Residue Can Supercharge Urease

The problem starts with a naturally occurring soil enzyme called urease. It’s what kicks off the breakdown of urea into ammonia and then ammonium. In a corn-on-corn field with lots of residue, the urease is supercharged.

“The thing about urease enzyme here in the surface with all this residue, it is 10 times higher than it would be in the soil,” he says.
The enzyme goes to work quickly, converting urea to ammonia at the soil–air interface, and that ammonia can simply drift off into the atmosphere. The more time it spends on the surface, the higher the odds of loss.

That’s why timing and management of dry fertilizer applications are critical.

“We sometimes say you need to keep the pin in the grenade – keep the urease enzyme at bay until we can get it worked in or rained in,” Ferrie says.

Evaluate Your Risk Potential

If tillage is in the plan, your solution to prevent volatilization is simple. Apply the fertilizer, then work it into the soil as soon as field conditions allow. When urea is incorporated, even lightly, any ammonia that forms is far more likely to be captured in the soil and converted to ammonium, where the crop can use it.

“There’s probably not a lot of worry in that scenario,” he says. “You’re going to incorporate this urea, and when it gasses, it’ll be in the soil, it’ll be captured.”

But not every system or scenario involves immediate tillage. In many no-till or strip-till fields, or when soil conditions are too wet for equipment, growers end up spreading fertilizer and then waiting on the weather to do the incorporation work. In those situations,
Ferrie warns, the risk of volatilization can increase quickly.

“If it’s going to lay out here and depend on rain [for incorporation], depending on how long that’s going to be, we’re going to need a urease inhibitor to give us time to get it rained in,” he says.

Urease inhibitors can temporarily slow or stop enzyme activity, giving farmers a bigger window before significant nitrogen loss occurs. For fields with a lot of residue, that extra time can make a big difference—especially when the forecast is uncertain.

Alongside conventional urea plus a urease inhibitor, Ferrie points to another option – using ESN, a polymer-coated, encapsulated urea.

“The ESN basically keeps the urea protected,” he says. “In that situation, if we lay it on the surface, you’re going to have about 60 days of protection. If you incorporate it, in our studies, [it] would show about 30 days of protection.”

ESN uses a physical coating to regulate how quickly water gets in and dissolves the urea. For growers who want extended protection or are looking to match nitrogen release more closely with crop uptake, that can be a useful tool. Still, Ferrie’s quick to point out that this isn’t a one-size-fits-all solution.

“It’s quite a bit more expensive,” he notes, underscoring the need to weigh costs against potential risks. For some high-yield, intensively managed corn-on-corn systems, the extra investment might pencil out. For others, a urease inhibitor on regular urea, combined with smart timing and placement, might be the more economical choice.

In addition, farmers need to think through when and how the urea in a fertilizer blend will get treated, Ferrie says If a urease inhibitor is added after everything is mixed together, you end up paying to “treat” nutrients that don’t actually need it.

“Treat the urea before you add the ammonium sulfate and the potash, or you’re going to end up treating all of the product, otherwise,” he cautions.

Know The Rules For Dicamba Use In Your State

Wed, 18 Feb 2026 19:50:50 GMT

The EPA has finalized the dicamba label for the next two growing seasons, bringing much-needed clarity to U.S. farmers. But while over-the-top (OTT) use is officially back, it arrives with the most restrictive federal requirements farmers have seen to date for products like Engenia , Tavium , and Bayer’s new XtendiMax replacement, Stryax .

In some cases, states are adopting stronger regulations for dicamba use, especially with regard to temperature and calendar cutoffs:

Temperature Cutoff: The federal label mandates a 95°F forecast high as a hard cutoff. If the National Weather Service forecasts a high above 95°F, you cannot legally spray OTT dicamba that day.
No Federal Calendar Cutoff: Unlike previous labels, the EPA has not set a nationwide calendar deadline.

State-Specific Restrictions In Place

Illinois and Minnesota are two states, so far, that are going with stricter regulations for temperature and application timing cutoffs for dicamba.

Illinois is using an 85°F forecast high as the cutoff for dicamba applications in soybeans.

“If you load your sprayer and it is 78 degrees at 10 a.m. in the morning, but the forecasted high by the National Weather Service is supposed to be 85 or 86, that is a do-not-spray day,” says Kevin Johnson, director of government relations and strategy for the Illinois Soybean Association.

Deadline for application: Plan for a June 20 cutoff for OTT applications, Johnson says.

Minnesota:

Temperature: Minnesota is using an 85°F forecast high cutoff for dicamba applications in soybeans.

Deadline for applications: June 12 cutoff south of I-94; June 30 cutoff north of I-94, according to Dicamba Restrictions Announced for 2026 Growing Season .

Shifting Your Weed Control Strategy

Because of the tighter application timing windows in Illinois, Johnson anticipates there could be a shift in how farmers there use the chemistry. He expects many Illinois farmers to move dicamba to a pre-emergence timing rather than post-emergence, saving OTT dicamba only for “super high weed” pressure situations.

With many seed trait packages now stacking dicamba and glufosinate (Liberty) tolerance, Johnson says to expect “a lot more guys using Liberty on the back end.”

In addition, the EPA is tying dicamba use to mandatory conservation practices. Farmers can find more details on the Bulletins Live! Two Website

“We’re still waiting on a lot of details on what those conservation practices are,” Johnson says. “Bulletins Live! Two is a good website, but it’s, I’ll say clunky… it’s not real easy to just find one thing and find what you need,” he cautions.

Record Keeping: Don’t Risk A $700 Fine

The most immediate hurdle for many farmers interested in using the technology this spring will be the paperwork. In Illinois, the Department of Agriculture uses a 22-question record-keeping sheet specifically for dicamba.

“If I can stress anything in this call, do your record keeping,” Johnson emphasizes. “If you ever get called in on a complaint, the first thing they ask you for is your record keeping. If you do not have all 22 questions filled out, you are going to get a $700 fine. There’s no questions asked.”

To stay ahead of that risk, Johnson advises Illinois farmers to complete records on a timely basis, not “later when things slow down.” He urges them to fill out as much of the form as possible before the season begins, including static information about equipment, farm identifiers, and general practices, then finish the day-specific entries in the cab during or immediately after the job. Some of the information—like wind speed, wind direction, and exact application timing—can only be captured accurately in real time.

For custom applications, the legal burden for record keeping falls on the applicator, Johnson adds, but growers should still ask for copies for their own files and talk openly with retailers about documentation expectations.

All of this points toward one overarching need, Johnson says: have a clear herbicide game plan for 2026, especially if you plan to use dicamba, and build in contingencies. He addresses more of the dicamba requirements specific to Illinois farmers in a recent Field Advisor podcast, available here .

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:37:03 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Why Soybeans Don't Need A Perfect Stand To Deliver High Yields

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 20:00:12 GMT

Soybeans are built to “improvise, adapt and overcome,” says Purdue Extension soybean specialist Shaun Casteel. But whether they can actually do that in your fields early in the season depends heavily on a few management decisions you control.

Here are three takeaways from Casteel’s recent presentation at the 2026 Illinois Soybean Field Advisor Forum that focus on his planting and replanting recommendations.

1. Before You Plant, Check The Forecast For The Following 24 Hours

Many farmers aim for the “50°F soil temp” rule when heading to fields to plant and, while that’s on track, Casteel thinks that’s only half right.

“Soybeans can germinate at [temperatures] as low as 36 to 43 degrees,” he said. “But it’s not necessarily soil temperature [we’re concerned about], even though that’s what we’re measuring, it’s the water temperature.”

A soybean seed must absorb (imbibe) approximately 50% of its own dry weight in moisture for germination to start. But if it absorbs cold water, the seed can be injured, resulting in damaged cell membranes, reduced germination, and dead or weak seedlings.

Casteel’s recommendation: if a cold front with rain is headed your way and likely to occur in the next 12 to 24 hours, hold off on planting, even if the soil temperature looks OK or you feel the calendar is pushing you to plant.

He adds that the time to soybean germination and emergence is related to heat unit accumulation (GDDs), noting there “is >50% emergence after 140 to 160 air GDDs.”

2. Aim for 1.5" Planting Depth and Good Seed-to-Soil Contact
Planting depth is important for soybeans’ ability to emerge well, and it also plays a big role in setting up root hair growth, nodulation and the plants’ access to nutrients.

“If you don’t have good root hair development, guess what? You don’t have good nodulation, you don’t have a good nitrogen supply. Kiss those high yields goodbye,” Casteel says.

As a rule of thumb for planting, he recommends farmers place soybean seed at 1.5” deep with a variance of between 1.25” to 1.75” depending on soil moisture and residue.

He advises against chasing moisture too deep, like you might if planting corn, as soybeans don’t handle deeper planting well. What happens if you plant too deep? Casteel says there are commonly three results:

1) The hypocotyl has to pull cotyledons farther to reach the surface. 2) That extra distance costs time and energy, so emergence is slower and less uniform. 3) In cool or crust-prone soils, deep-planted beans are more likely to stall or die before they break through the soil surface.

3. Don’t Be In A Hurry To Replant Soybeans. Evaluate Your Stand Thoroughly First.

Casteel urges farmers to be more cautious about replanting soybeans. His own line in the sand is around 70,000 plants per acre. At or above that level, with healthy, evenly distributed plants, his data shows soybeans usually deliver about 95% of full yield potential, making a replant hard to justify. He also notes that stands in the 66,000 to 100,000 range often end up with very similar yield results.

The reason is soybeans will compensate. In delayed-emergence and overseeding studies, Casteel says he found that when part of the stand emerged late, the original plants simply “branched more and produced a larger share of the yield.”

In one scenario he evaluated, the original plants contributed 60% of the yield and the late-emerging plants 40%, yet the total yield matched a uniform stand. In a V2-type “replant” timing, roughly 95% of yield still came from the original soybean plants and only 5% from the later ones.

Because of that, Casteel says most soybean replants at V2 are “just making us feel good rather than making us more money.” Once plants are established and starting to branch, overseeding or tearing them up rarely changes the final bushels much, but it does add cost and risk.

Where he says a “full reset” is likely needed is when stands are around 50,000 to 60,000 plants per acre and it’s still roughly the first week of May—before the original plants have much node development or branching. Outside of that scenario, his research and experience say the better decision is usually to leave the stand alone and let soybeans compensate.

If you can manage that, Casteel contends soybeans will usually do what they’re designed to do: “They can improvise, adapt and overcome. It’s our job not to get in the way,” he says.

Hear Casteel’s complete presentation at the Field Advisor Forum on YouTube here . Be sure to check out what he says about managing corn residue after the 2026 harvest, so it doesn’t negatively impact your soybean crop the following year.

What Caused Grains to Fail on Monday? Cattle Chase Cash

Mon, 26 Jan 2026 21:35:54 GMT

Grains ended lower on Monday with livestock futures mostly higher.

Grains Fail to Extend Gains on Profit Taking
Grain markets ended lower on Monday, failing to extend gains after last week’s short covering rally and higher weekly closes. Sam Hudson with Corn Belt Marketing says the grain markets all hit technical resistance on the charts and may have seen profit taking by fund traders or even some farmer selling on the board.

Nervousness About Canadian Tariff Threat?
Hudson doesn’t think there was any spillover selling from the outside markets. There was a risk off marketplace Monday as President Trump over the weekend threatened to place 100% tariffs on Canada in reaction to their trade deal struck with China. This impacted the metals markets which rallied to record highs in gold and silver. The dollar index was also sharply lower on concern about a government shutdown and the possibility of U.S. and Japanese authorities threatening to step in and halt a steep slide in the yen, implying a readiness to buy the Japanese currency and sell U.S. dollars.

Soybeans Also Fail
Soybean futures were also lower on profit taking after the inability to stay above the 200-day moving average resistance area on the charts. Export inspections were strong at 48.7 million bu. Monday morning but the accumulated total on shipments is still 37% below last year. Hudson says China has also been slow to ship their soybean purchases, even though they are estimated to have reached their 12 MMT purchase commitment. But the sales will at least allow USDA to keep those exports on the books moving forward.

China Done Buying U.S. Soybeans?
With that being said, Hudson thinks China is likely done buying soybeans from the U.S. and will now turn to Brazil for their cheaper supplies. He says they may not be back in the U.S. market until August or September.

Weather Premium Being Removed in Corn and Soybeans?
Corn and soybeans, even soybean meal, seemed to put in some weather premium last week with the hot and dry conditions in Argentina and Southern Brazil. However, Hudson doesn’t think this weather has cut yields yet and until the private firms start cutting their production forecasts this won’t get too much more attention by the trade. Weather also had the effect of slowing down ethanol production and soybean processing efforts as some plants found it was more profitable to slow operations and sell the natural gas. Additionally there has been a slow down in grain marketing and movement with the Winter Storm Fern hitting 28 states with snow, ice and record low temperatures.

Corn Continues to See Strong Export Demand
Corn export inspections on Monday were solid at 59.5 million bu. and total shipments are running 53% ahead of a year ago. This follows huge weekly exports last Friday at nearly 158 million bu. for the week ending Jan. 15. This was the second highest weekly total and the highest since 2021. However, Hudson says even this strong demand isn’t enough to take a dent out of the large carryout at over 2.2 billion bu.

Wheat Sets Back Despite Freezing Temps
Wheat futures caught a bid last week ending 10 to 13 cents higher in the three classes for the week but also seeing a chart breakout on the hard red winter wheat above the 100-day moving average. Hudson says some of that was short covering by the funds but the cold weather and winter kill concerns in the winter wheat crop also played a role. However, he says with the stocks to use ratio globally so high the market really can’t put in more weather premium without becoming non-competitive and likely also saw some profit taking.

Cattle Follow Cash Higher
Live and feeder cattle futures ended higher on Monday with help from Friday’s higher cash trade establishment and weather. The five area weighted average steer came in at $234.70, up $2.20 from the previous week. However, on Friday the fed market cash in the South started out at $232 but by the end of the day extended to $236.50. The volume was $233 to $235. In the North dressed prices were mostly $370, up $5 and live prices at mostly $235, up $3 from the previous week. Higher boxed beef values at noon also supported the rally.

Can Live Cattle Futures Take Out Resistance?
Live cattle futures are still trading sideways though according to Hudson, and will need further cash strength this week to get through overhead resistance areas and achieve a breakout and bigger rally.

Lean Hogs Mostly Higher
Lean hog futures ended higher except for the Feb. contract. However, back months continue to grind into new highs. Hudson says those summer months are offering some attractive hedging opportunities especially with the lower feed prices.

Gulke: Is Something Brewing in the Corn Market?

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 16:48:55 GMT

The grain markets all ended higher last week with a new high close for the move in corn. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says fundamentally many in the trade will try to attribute the rally to the cold weather and how it has slowed grain movement from truck to barge. However, he says, the corn market has technically looked good for a while.

Coincidentally this comes just two weeks after the shock and awe in the corn market from the January WASDE and final crop production report, where USDA increased production to a record 17 billion bushels with an unexpected 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres.

Is Something Going on in the Corn Market?

After the 25 cent drop in corn prices Gulke says it uncovered some insatiable demand as end users saw those price levels as a bargain. USDA has continued to report a string of large flash export sales. For the week ending Jan. 16, export sales were nearly 158 million bushels. That was a marketing year high, and a level not achieved since 2021.

The U.S. corn export market has an advantage the first quarter of a new year, according to Gulke. Generally sales are steady to higher but rarely run at this blistering pace.

“If the export sales continue in corn, you may have to raise the export projection from USDA even higher.”

In fact, he predicts USDA’s record export projection of 3.2 billion bushels could be 75 million bushels too low.

Is China Buying Corn?

Gulke also thinks it’s possible the flash sales of corn to unknown destinations could be China because corn export sales normally go to Mexico and there are hardly any export customers afraid to report they are buying U.S. corn.

“We’ve got to watch China. They’ve been bragging about how good the crop is but maybe their crop isn’t as good as they thought,” he explains.

Can Corn Recover to Pre-WASDE Levels?

Corn lost over 25 cents after the report and broke out of the bottom side of the sideways trading range it had been stuck in for months. Gulke says while it’s not impossible for corn to rally back to those levels the odds don’t favor it.

“Why would corn ever go up there knowing full well there’s tons of grain that’s going to be sold off the farm. I guess we proved that in the report with on-farm stocks. What shouldn’t happen is if this market is that bad, you shouldn’t get a second chance,” he explains.

He says the market may retrace 50% of that price drop as it’s already bounced nearly 15 cents off the lows, but he’s not confident in a further recovery without a major catalyst.

Corn Is In Price Discovery Process

Gulke says the corn market is just starting its price discovery process for the 2026 crop, which is not so much about what you know.

“It’s what you don’t know that is going to come and surprise us like the WASDE did on the downside, which has helped get corn prices low enough to where we are going to stay competitive until Brazil finally harvests their big crop a few months down the road,” he says.

The corn market is also entering a critical time where farmers who did not already apply fertilizer in the fall are making 2026 planting decisions. Currently, Gulke says corn acreage is expected to drop three to four million acres. Their early client acreage survey results show little, if any, increase in corn acres and a few farmers have switched to soybeans because of the lower input costs.

“If you like your 50-50 rotation it’ll stay that way,” he says.

If that is the case it will be difficult to drop carryout much under 2.2 billion bushels, which would keep corn stuck in its current trading range.

This is also the time of year, according to Gulke, when you expect to see some weather premium being added to the markets.

“I don’t think there’s any weather premium in corn right now. If there is, it’s very little,” he adds.

He says it’s also been a few years since the U.S. has had a wet spring or any planting delays to cause a weather rally, but there are still many unknowns about the weather for the 2026 growing season.

February Crop Insurance Price Period

The corn market is also entering February when crop insurance guarantees are established for spring crops.

“There are new high closes I think in wheat for the year, corn and in beans as well. We’re doing some things in the month of January that are very interesting. We’ll see if we can continue that into February,” he says.

Currently corn prices are close to last spring’s levels. However, with the improved crop insurance premium subsidies in the One Big Beautiful Bill, Gulke says farmers could still see better guarantees than in 2025.

“A lot of farmers are telling me they can buy insurance with up to 95% coverage using some of the Farmer Bridge Assistance payments they’re receiving,” he explains. The crop insurance price guarantee for corn will further affect farmers’ decisions on whether they want to plant more corn or not. He says unfortunately instead of farmers taking their cue from the market, they are getting signals from government policy and programs.

For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Worst Winter Storm in a Decade Sets Sights on Weekend Mayhem

Thu, 22 Jan 2026 22:27:34 GMT

Weather models are predicting one of the biggest winter storms in years as an arctic cold front shoulders its way south, setting a collision course with subtropical moisture from the Gulf. The result could be up to 2' of snow, freezing rain, up to an inch of ice and temperatures in the single digits across more than 2,000 miles from Texas to the Carolinas.

“We’re talking about probably once in a decade type event here,” says USDA Meteorologist Brad Rippey. “We haven’t seen a storm like this in exactly 10 years, since Jan. 22 and 23 of 2016.”

He says that storm that brought 18" to 30" of snow to Washington, D.C., but had a much larger impact across the Lower 48. This storm is different because it combines not just precipitation but also bitter cold.

“There’s going be some 1' to 2' [snow] totals stretching across the Ozarks plateau, probably just south of the Ohio river and possibly into the northern mid-Atlantic,” Rippey says. “South of that is where we could see extended power outages related to ice accumulations that could be 0.5" to 1".”

Watch for Ice and Bitter Cold

Rippey says the heaviest ice impacts are likely to be from northeastern Texas across to the mid-south. Power outages are expected and restoration of services are likely to take several days or even weeks, depending on the severity.

For the areas that don’t see heavy snow or ice, the issue will be bitterly cold temperatures. Parts of North Dakota, across the upper Great Lakes, expect temperatures of -30°F. While the North will see the worst of the cold, the outbreak is likely to be felt across two-thirds of the country, including the South.

“This is a part of the country where cattle are not accustomed to this type of environment,” Rippey adds. “It’s going to be important to try to guard against getting too wet and too cold.”

Operations that have cows calving in the northern Plains normally have calving facilities, but in the southern Plains and Southeast, that may not be the case. Veterinarians suggest livestock owners develop a contingency plan to be ready for the impending storm.

“Can you get power to your wells or your tank heaters,” asks Dr. Robin Falkner, a technical service veterinarian with Elanco Animal Health. “Can you crank your tractor? Do you have the water you need or can you feed your cattle? Where’s your best hay? Can you get to it? Can you roll out some bales of hay to get them off the cold, wet ground? What can you do to make sure your system doesn’t collapse?”

The National Weather Prediction Center says this is what to expect.

(NWS)

Rippey says for parts of the southern Plains, this could be the biggest winter weather event since the great arctic outbreak of February 2021. He believes winter wheat producers will also need to keep an eye on the crop in areas where it might have extended exposure to subzero temperatures.

What’s Driving This Storm

While you can blame La Niña for the dryness across the country, this incoming winter storm system isn’t happening in isolation. Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the broader weather pattern favors repeated intrusions of Arctic air, which helps fuel winter storms farther south than usual.

“The reality is this: Unlocking more Arctic air is a possibility through the remainder of January and February,” he says. “So I don’t think we’re done with this more southern storm track.”

That doesn’t necessarily mean every storm will be this severe. He says there could be a couple more winter storms before this winter is over, but he doesn’t think they’ll be at the velocity of this one. Rippey adds that this doesn’t appear to be the beginning of a new cold and stormy weather pattern. He calls it a one-storm anomaly and expects the cold and winter weather to return to its northern perch by mid-February.

Snodgrass points out what’s missing from the pattern is just as important as what’s present. He says the absence of El Niño is a major reason the U.S. has leaned so heavily on cold air to generate precipitation.

“What we don’t have is what we want, which is El Niño,” he says. “If we had an El Niño, I’d be talking about nonstop flow out of the southwest, kicking off storms through the mid-South, the Delta.”

Instead, farmers are dealing with a colder, harsher setup.

“This winter though, we’ve got to get Arctic air down in order to kick off good snows across these drier places,” Snodgrass says.

The Silver Lining: Moisture

The only silver lining might be the moisture the storm brings to areas currently experiencing drought or dryness.

“We have seen more than 40% of the country in varying degrees of drought each week, going back to mid-September,” Rippey says. “Once this snow and ice begins to melt, it will percolate into the soils and actually could provide quite a benefit for some of those drought-stricken areas in the South where we’ve had trouble with pasture conditions and surface water supplies.”

“If you look from the southern Plains through the Delta and mid-South and look at the, since the beginning of winter, Dec. 1, the rank of how dry it’s been, it’s like in the top five,” Snodgrass says. “And in some places, the driest start to anyone on record.”

That context makes the incoming storm especially critical. While travel disruptions, ice and power outages are likely, Snodgrass emphasizes the sheer amount of moisture involved.

“I hate it that it’s a massive winter storm, and it’s extremely disruptive, and it is going be a problem,” he says. “But there’s up to 3" of liquid in this, and we need every bit of that.”

How Long will the Cold Last

For producers watching soil moisture and river levels, Snodgrass offers perspective but also encourages patience.

“Spring can undo all of winter’s sins,” he says. “So by the time we get into March and April, we can recover these significant losses in soil. The rivers can come back up, and we can start to see a better start.”

Still, the concern isn’t evenly spread across the country. In southern Texas, drought pressure is already immediate.

“You have to remember, right now in Texas, they’re already scratching dirt and planting corn,” Snodgrass says “So you’ve got folks down there that are more concerned about this drought because it’s hitting them right now.”

For most of the Corn Belt and Plains, Snodgrass says waiting might be the best course of action.

“For the rest of us, we can be patient and wait,” he says. “And that’s what I would advise folks to do for the next couple of months.”

Icy winter storm conditions are forecast across parts of Texas through the weekend.

AgriLife Extension encourages Texans to take steps now to protect their families, homes and property. Winter storms can create dangerous conditions, including power outages, hazardous travel and… pic.twitter.com/DDncSrhLq7
— Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service (@txextension) January 22, 2026