WEATHER

Grains End Higher as Funds Buy on Inflation Concerns: Cattle, Hogs Lower

Fri, 01 May 2026 21:39:09 GMT

Grains ended higher on Friday with livestock lower.

Soybeans Rally with Bean Oil
Soybeans were higher on Friday following bean oil which made new contract highs and hit levels not seen since June of 2022.

Jim McCormick of AgMarket.Net says the bean oil market has been seeing strong U.S. and global demand with various countries announcing biodiesel mandates.

“Soybean oil has been the lead driver for the bean complex. Years ago, meal was the driver for beans. It’s now the oil due to the biodiesel.
That definitely is helping it,” he says.

Frost and Cold Weather
Soybeans may have also been adding risk premium due to frost concerns.

Some areas of the Corn Belt already saw freezing temperatures and are facing replant and there is another push of cold weather coming in the next few of days.

He says, “Another cold shot this weekend and there is worry about some replant going on. Parts of the country earlier this week also had some very, very heavy rains. We are hearing parts of Southern Indiana, Illinois might have to replant as well,” he says.

New Month, New Money in the Grains on Inflationary Buying
McCormick says a new month also brought in new money on inflation concerns.

“You know, as long as you have the problems in the Middle East going on, you’re going to have people wanting to buy commodities on the energy inflation hedge. And then the other story line you’re going to continue to hear is about the food inflation risk due to the fact of not getting fertilizer there. There’s fear there will be a shortage in the Southern hemisphere growing season. That is attracting spec money into the markets as well,” he adds.

He says there are plenty of investors that made money on the last round of inflation that started in 2020 and hit its height in 2022.

“Coming out of COVID, they made a lot of money trading that inflation story. So some of that money, I believe, is coming into the market. And that is what’s supporting the corn market,” he says.

The record high diesel fuel prices are also driving up inflation McCormick warns.

“Remember, everything is used, you know. for you know in energy to get that product to where we need it so you know you’re you know and then so much of the packaging is derived from products made from energy from crude. So you know that has got a lot of the just inspect investor money saying I want to own an asset that could make me money if we come back into inflationary times. We got some inflationary readings this week shows that the inflation is going the wrong way compared to what the Fed wants. It’s starting to creep back up and that tends to attract money near term.”

Bean Oil Follows Crude Oil
How much higher can soybean oil go if crude oil stays above $100? Is that the key here for keeping the funds interested in that market or not?

He says, “I think that’s one of the major keys. I mean, the fact is as crude oil continues to go higher, as the Strait stays shut, that probably is going to be supportive.”

The caveat is competition from other lower priced veg oils he explains. “What we’re finally starting to see is we saw the story six months, a year ago, where we were bringing a lot of used cooking oil in from China and going into our renewable diesel plants. Well, we’re starting to hear reports that that is happening again. So what it’s showing you is the price of bean oil domestically has gotten so competitively priced, so high priced, I should say, that you can now import it. That will tend to ration. the demand for the product a little bit, and that might at least at a minimum, slow the upward momentum.”

Worst case, he says it could force the top in the market.

Soybean Chart Breakout
Soybeans had a strong technical day with July closing above $12 and the November contract making a new contract high.

November soybeans could go higher but it depends on if the funds want to add to their long position.

“I would argue, the market isn’t trading your typical grain fundamentals. You’re trading macro fundamentals of the Middle East. And you’re trading, like I mentioned, the inflationary aspect of it. That can carry the market a lot further than economically it really makes sense. So really, the money flow is going to be the key to how far this market can be carried higher,” he says.

Although the July contract closed above $12 he says that contract is still range bound.

“It is still sideways. It’s taken out the near-term range. It has not taken out the high, I believe that was spike made the past fall when the Trump administration announced the China trade deal.”

China Meeting Key
He says that is the key for the market is if the China meeting happens in mid-May and is not delayed again.

“If talks with President Trump and Xi are still on, and President Trump is anticipated to make his way over to China here in the next couple of weeks you’re probably going to hear more rhetoric potentially about what China may do. I do not believe there are going to be a big buyer of old crop beans. They did in that first agreement back in the fall talk about buying 25 million metric tons of new crop beans. We’ll see if they can lock that down and get a hard commitment,” he explains.

If that deal doesn’t happen the soybean market could fall apart.

“We know I think the last time we go around when we had to postpone the meeting, the market did sell off a little bit. And there is a lot of uncertainty to it. Like I said, President Trump sounds like he wants to go. But, you know, we’ll see, you know, with the war going on in the
Middle East, I think all, you know, we probably, you know, this thing could fall apart at the last minute,” he adds.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn made new highs for the move while December again was capped by the $5 mark.

McCormick says the funds are buying corn because of inflation concerns and the fertilizer issues.

“There’s no doubt about it I mean part of it is you are seeing some buying I think definitely on the fertilizer plate now most people agree that the fertilizer in the U.S. is expensive but there is no shortage. We’re pricing on a world market and if our prices are too cheap somebody from the rest of the world will come in and buy it and ship it back there but it’s here,” he says.

The world is worried if the Strait isn’t reopened there is going to be a shortage for fall needs and South American needs.

He adds another thing attracting investor money is the ethanol grind and the price of ethanol compared to gasoline, which is much cheaper.

$5 December Corn?
So it may be just a matter of time here before December takes out the $5 level but how far can it run before farmer selling caps the rally?

He says, Well, it’s a situation where we saw a lot of farmers selling here this week as the market tried to push into that $5 level. And then I would argue as we get through that $5 level, you’re probably going to hear a backoff of selling. And then you get back up, I believe you had the contract high, I believe was right around $5.12. That’ll be the next level resistance. I mean, now the question is where are farmers going to be comfortable selling versus the speculators that want to own it?”

Six weeks ago he says farmers would have jumped at $5 corn but now there is hesitancy tied to weather and fertilizer concerns.

“So people are very hesitant to sell it and if that farmer’s not there to sell against that spec money coming in that will allow this market to move higher,” he says.

Wheat Market High In?
The wheat market saw some recovery on Friday but has corrected off the two year highs hit on Wednesday in both winter wheat classes.

So it the top in?

McCormick says, “Right now I would argue it’s a little bit more of a profit taking week. Remember, we wrapped up the week here just on Thursday. The market was way, way technically overbought, a little bit of a correction. The corn wheat spread was out of whack as well. The other thing maybe generated a little bit of profit taking and generated some selling potentially was we are importing wheat from Poland, I believe, which shows you the price of our wheat has gotten so high that you can make it comparable to bring in competition. That will limit the upside momentum.”

However, he doesn’t think the weather story is over.

“We’ve still got a long way to go. There’s not a lot of rain in the forecast. I’ve had clients that are still trying to adjust for the losses they think
they had due to the severe frost damage that they had here a week, 10 days ago. We’ve got more cold weather coming in. I’m not completely convinced that this wheat market is done with going up,” he says.

Wheat Production Losses
How much of the hard red winter wheat crop has been lost? Some estimates are as high as 200 million bushels.

McCormick says, “I would argue somewhere around 200 million on the low and maybe 300 million on the high end. Now, I know that’s a lot. But remember, we did have a big crop a year ago. So the overall supply is still relatively comfortable. That’s part of the debate of the market right now and that’s why we may not have put the top in because we just don’t know.”

He thinks USDA will make some of that adjustment in the May 12 WASDE in the first balance sheet for new crop.

Cattle Make Record Highs Then Fall
The cattle market made new contract and record highs in both live and feeder cattle futures on Friday, then ended lower.

So was that just some profit taking or the talks that packers were going to start kill cuts next week?

“I think kill cuts are part of it, but I think a lot of it was profit taking. And we had one heck of a move higher. I think we rallied $15 in roughly six days or something like that. Just one heck of a strong move. And I think some people decided, hey, they want to take some money off the table
right now. I mean, we know the story, Michelle, the cattle supply continues to be incredibly tight. We’re also moving into a time of year where the demand tends to ramp up as you go into the spring and summer barbecue grilling season,” he explains.

The key will be if the consumer is willing to pay the higher prices for beef with the spike in gas prices.

“We are in a different situation than we were last time prices were up. You have gasoline prices here outside of the Chicago suburbs trading at $5, outside of Detroit at $6. So, the question now is how much can the consumer take?”

And will they trade down to cheaper proteins.

Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies Case

The hog market was down Thursday and Friday with the first case of pseudorabies in a small commercial hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

The market was pricing in the uncertainty but how low will it go?

McCormick says he thinks the low is close. “Usually it takes one to three days to price in these negative headlines. Like you said, we’ve heard it a couple of days ago. So hopefully we’re close. It was definitely disappointing. Like you said, we haven’t had a case like this in 2004. So getting that headline definitely was a surprise to the market. And, you know, kind of a knee jerk reaction you get when you get these surprise stories.”

Cattle Futures Hit Record Highs, Are $400 Feeders Next? Hogs Fall on Pseudorabies

Fri, 01 May 2026 16:06:07 GMT

Cattle, corn and soybeans higher Friday, with hogs lower.

Feeders Hit Record Highs, How High Will Prices Go?
Live cattle and feeder cattle futures were higher on Friday’s open and quickly moved into record high territory.

Scott Varilek of Kooima Kooima Varilek says tight supplies and a record cash market have supported the move to new highs.

Feeder are back as the leaders in the complex but how high will prices go now that prices are back up into record highs?

He says, “It does feel like, okay, live cattle had already made their contract highs. Feeders were next. So, what numbers can we grab? I’ve heard the $380. I’ve heard the $390. I’ve heard the $400. We’re all just reaching, making up numbers that we can. We’ve already seen eight weights spring $400 in sale barns in the North. So it’s not something out of the ordinary that can’t happen. So once we bust through, it feels like, yeah, they have the legs to do it.”

He stresses that this could be the last higher push for a while.

“We’re going to want to be ready for it. I think this is our last charge higher. I guess it’s feeling like we’re getting towards the ninth inning of this. I think we’ve probably heard that a few times, but this is a rally that is going to be the one that’s going to be the one that we’re going to want to sell, I guess. So the chance to get to $4 is there. It really could happen,” he adds.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs First
Live cattle had already hit record highs earlier in the week and took out those levels again on Friday.

The market says some end of month profit taking Thursday but charged back higher Friday morning chasing cash.

Record cash trade broke already on Tuesday at $11, $12 higher than last week at $258 in the North, $255 to $256 in the South.

He says it caught the market by surprise, “I mean, that’s not something that’s normal. And it’s odd because when we were getting bid the $246, And the market wasn’t trading as hot as it was. I think the packers could have just went to $248 and bought all of the show lists and bought all
of the cattle. The fact that they waited another week, was it a shoot, you caught me bluffing move? Or was there somebody that’s really long, this board that wanted it to go higher? I don’t know and we won’t know. But regardless. Big charge higher, $12.”

He says bids started Tuesday at $250 and quickly went to $252 and then to $255.

“I thought that would do it. And then was just surprised when I started hearing that everybody was passing it and then get to $258, which a lot of people did get that and did trade that. You could get it for shorter. You could get two over the August for basis contracts. So, the packer was trying to get as many cattle around them as they can. And I would believe that everything on the show list, if you’re passing that kind of price, I don’t know what you’re waiting for,” he adds.

He hasn’t seen anything like it since 2014 but it was a big inventory grab and packers bought for delayed delivery as well.

Packers Buy Ahead of Kill Cuts
Packers were aggressively getting inventory as they are talking about kill cuts starting next week.

“Just hearing that there’s some majors that are going to start kill cuts next week, start to slow down the chain. And I mean, it’s just, it’s how tight we are. In this cattle industry, we’re, you know, 8% down, 8 to 9% down on steer to heifer slaughter this year. Cow slaughter is way down. Dairy cow slaughter is down. It’s just there’s still a shortage. So this last little push is all on supply, in my opinion. And I think that’s how the packer is trying to manage it,” he explains.

He says they are cutting kills to get boxed beef to move higher and improve their margins and the industry is still down a plant from a strike.

How High Will Live Cattle Futures Run?
Live cattle have continued to push into record high areas but how high will prices go?

Varilek says it is hard to even project because there are no technical areas on the charts to even compare to now.

“You’re up in new territory. You’re just grabbing, you know whatever number comes to your mind somebody wants to say a really high number so they can get remembered. I would rather try to do you guys some good rather than just make up a number up high and try to throw it to you that’s just that’s all made up,” he adds.

But he does say it depends not just on supply but demand.

“For me it’s just that this demand is going to have to pick up if we’re going to keep these live cattle running through and that’s the part that’s seeming to be just a little bit lacking. Seeing mixed feelings on what these steak cuts are doing. You know, the ribeye rolls are down. Usually we’re trying to, you know, see how high we can get those or how much a consumer is going to pay for them this time of year in the red hot grilling season, Mother’s Day weekend coming up and we’re actually dropping them a little bit. So I don’t like that,” he further explains.

Plus, he says with energy prices soaring it is hitting consumer pocketbooks which could also ratchet back demand.

Hogs Fall on Iowa Pseudorabies Case
Lean hog futures were down on Thursday and again Friday with the uncertainty tied to the first case of pseudorabies in a hog herd in Iowa since 2004.

“So it’s five boars that were shipped, you know, were. tested positive and some were shipped from Texas to Iowa. So sounding like it was show pigs, not sure. Can’t totally confirm that, but that would make sense on how that happened,” he says.

However, the disease is manageable according to Varilek.

“So we have vaccination capabilities already, protocol in place. So, for me it’s okay I think we’re going to be able to eradicate this once again and make this a short-lived kind of a worry here because it it is something that that’s real and I mean it’s something that can have you know
they could be dead within 48 to 72 hours. Hogs are a great host likely mixed with some feral hogs so it is around.”

Is it Bullish or Bearish?
Varilek says it does severely cut production which takes supply off the market which is bullish.

However, it is still a market uncertainty.

“So uncertainty is always bearish. Packers are trying to note some certain timeframes where they would kill hogs with pseudo rabies. So they were still entering, you know. you know, the meat supply. We weren’t worried about it back then. So because they had windows where you could slaughter those hogs. So a lot to digest here real fast. Everybody’s Googling pseudorabies and trying to learn as much as they can here real fast,” he adds.

Nov Soybeans Hit Contract Highs, Corn Also Higher
Corn and soybeans were higher early with November soybeans making new contract highs.

Varilek soybeans are following the new contract highs in bean oil.

“That seems to be the biggest thing, just the energy is staying so strong. And that’s making a lot of the headlines, the war. and how high crude oil is. So, I think that those markets are starting to respect that. I mean from a production side yeah you said more acres we’re seeing a little bit of replant we’ve got some frost. Which usually those rallies that are based off of frost and replant those are rallies that are meant to be sold. But I don’t think that that’s all of this I do think it’s energy,” he states.

Can Dec Corn Get Above $5?
Corn is also higher on the biofuels push with strong ethanol margins and profits.

With $100 crude oil corn could stay supported for a while and chew through some of the large ending stocks.

So will Dec corn get above $5?

Varilek says, “So we’ve got a bar right there, $5. We’ve seen it fail there a few times. Now I think if you just poke through it. I think you’re going to get some follow through strength on it just because it’s been such a number. Oh, that looks easy. Just sell it right below five bucks here and let it break. But those triple tops never hold, they kind of say. So I feel like we’re going to be able to get through it and might get some follow
through.”

He adds that the funds are long corn and the news may finally be good enough to rally the corn and grain markets.

Corn and Wheat Pause on Profit Taking: November Soybeans Hit New Highs

Thu, 30 Apr 2026 21:41:45 GMT

Grain markets ended mostly lower except new crop soybeans, cattle were mixed with hogs lower.

Corn and Wheat Take a Breather
Corn and wheat both ended lower on Thursday.

Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says wheat made new highs on Wednesday and was overbought and due for a correction.

Corn made new highs for the move in the overnight session before seeing some pressure from the lower wheat market and profit taking as it was end of the month, plus the start of the delivery period for May contracts.

“I think there was a lot of that definitely at play with the session here to obviously to finish the month. We know the funds have definitely been buyers here again. So seeing them take some profits here after a really strong move is good to see as long as we’re holding support. And so far that seems to be the case. We did have some healthy retracement levels tested during the session. But so far we haven’t seen any meaningful changes fundamentally. And I think that’s going to keep support here under the whole grain complex,” she explains.

The crude oil market also corrected after spiking in the overnight session which may have weighed on corn and wheat as well.

She says, “Yes, crude had losses today too, but there too, we had a very strong overnight session and pushed to some new highs for the move.”

Corrections Are Healthy
She says the corrections in corn and especially wheat are healthy.

“We can’t go in a steep climb forever. You’re going to have to have pullbacks. And honestly, just after the beginning of this week, or even looking back the past three weeks, we’ve had some phenomenal rallies. Wheat, for instance, rallying over $1 in most contracts across all three exchanges. So having a first pullback here, you know, with some double digits is actually healthy for the market. And again, we haven’t
seen anything fundamentally change the story here today. Makes me think it’s more technical,” she adds.

Farmer Selling
With the big run up in prices there was likely some farmer selling as well.

Thompson says she hopes farmers took advantage of the rally to do some pricing.

“We’ve been definitely pushing to be making some sales, especially on a strong run that’s, again, a lot of weather and momentum traded. So it always makes you a little leery, especially this time of year. There is risk ahead, don’t get me wrong, but you’ve got to be rewarding the market when we’re getting rallies and strong moves to some new highs, of course, that producers haven’t seen for a couple of years,” she states.

Weather Change?
There was also some rains in the forecast for HRW wheat areas like Texas. In the past those rains have been disappointing and if the pattern stays the same wheat could add back weather premium according to Thompson.

Plus, she says it may be too late for the rain to help some areas.

“Yeah, at this point, I think a lot of the damage has been done. I’ve talked to producers down there. I’ve also talked to some custom harvesters who’ve been moving or trying to talk to clients who’ve been all the way down to Texas. And unfortunately, one person even commented that they weren’t able to get any farms that were willing to book for wheat anywhere South of South Dakota. So I think that there’s definitely some production issues there,” she says.

There is some replanting taking place but with 34% of the U.S. crop heading it is going to be too late for rain to make a difference in her opinion.

How Big Are the Production Losses?
So are all of the losses priced into the market and what production cuts could be expected?

Thompson says, “Well, that’s the million dollar question is where is final production going to be? But ultimately, the market’s pricing in where these production losses are going to be. And ultimately, it depends what the USDA does. We know they’re kind of notorious for kicking that can down the road. So it could take a couple months before we really start seeing what production is going to be like. And it probably will wait
until we get further into harvest. So end of May, beginning of June, when we normally see winter wheat starting to harvest that we start really building something here on this market.”

She reiterated that wheat markets have a history of going further in extreme times than a lot of people would think.

“And I think we’re in that environment now where we could see prices continue to spike higher.”

Spring Wheat Planting Slow
The spring wheat market was down from the contract highs hit on Wednesday.

Prices have finally moved above $7 and hopefully are profitable enough to entice farmers in the North to continue to plant.

But is the market concerned about low acreage or yields?

“A fair question. You know, South of me, you don’t have to go very far an hour closer to Fargo. And there are guys who are already done planting spring wheat, getting beets in the ground. And then up in my area, just an hour North and beyond, there isn’t any real equipment moving. We really haven’t turned anything yet. And even this morning, we had snowflakes falling in the area. So spring isn’t exactly here yet. And that’s, you know, just keeping things a little bit at bay,” she says.

But it is still early and so she thinks the intended acres will get planted but none beyond that especially with higher fertilizer prices.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says any farmers that have booked fertilizer are more likely to use it on corn acres instead of wheat.

Many industry analysts believe corn acres are dropping but Thompson thinks in the North the acres will be close to intentions.

“A lot of guys booked fertilizer early. Talking with producers where I think those acres are kind of locked in I don’t foresee a big switch coming from our area. I think a lot of guys are intending to plant acres again, just based on what they produced last year. They had a very good season. So I think guys are really going to try and get the corn in the ground, especially if they have the fertilizer booked. If they don’t, might be a different story case by case. But I do think that we’re going to get a lot of the corn going in the ground this year,” she adds.

$5 Dec Corn
With a cut in acres and high fertilizer prices the December corn is flirting with $5. Will it get above that level?

She is optimistic it will for several reasons.

“You know, demand has been very strong for corn. And I know we’re starting to talk about the U.S. growing season and not really seeing, you know, a lot of risk there yet necessarily. I mean, planting pace is going good. Conditions are going to be around the corner here and there’s no hiccups. But we also have to remember South America is a big one right now. And over the next couple of weeks, a lot of their top producing areas further north are going to be starting to go into a dry and hot season. And I think that could have more of an impact on the global corn market, especially with ending stocks at 10-year lows, stocks to use ratio at 10-year lows. We can’t afford a problem. And of course, we have the growing season ahead here yet. So to see the risk appetite in the grains that we have right now, I think it definitely leaves the door open,” she says.

Technically if Dec corn can get about $5.03 she thinks there is a good chance to go to $5.25.

Soybeans End Mixed But Off Lows
Soybeans were under pressure early but did come back with the rally to new contract highs in bean oil even though crude oil reversed lower.

She says a biofuel report show an increase in usage which helped push bean oil.

“So I think that the demand on the oil side could step up some more. But ultimately, that’s what’s leading the market. I mean, we hit three and a half year highs today, and that certainly helps the idea for soybeans. And that complex is really split. It’s obviously a product market. We’ve been following meal for the last couple of weeks. Now it seems like it’s switching over to the oil side. And oil, when that’s leading, can definitely create volatility. So I expect that we’re going to stay range bound here unless soy oil can really kick it into another gear.”

Soybeans Attempt Chart Breakout
The soybean market attempted to break out of its sideways trading range and got above $12 but could not close above that level.

November soybeans made a new high but then closed back under that level.

She says, “It’s really good to see the market really probing those resistance levels and really trying to break through them. But until we can get a close above $12 or above in July, you know, $11.75 in November, it makes it really difficult. You know, the market ultimately is still looking for a catalyst. We have supportive elements there. They’ve been there for a while and they’re keeping us at the top of the range, but the market clearly wants more to get there. So it’ll be interesting to see as we go forward.”

China Deal or Crush?
The one catalyst the market may be waiting for is the results of the China meeting on May 14 and 15 as record crush alone has not been able to get the market above current trading ranges.

“Crush margins remain very strong. So, I think domestically we’re definitely set up and we’ve seen that shift we’ve been talking about it here for several months that you know soybeans used to be a dominantly export market and we’re really starting to see it shift to the product side and so to see that strength build I think it’s just a switch happening within the complex and soybeans are obviously reacting to it and I think it does give us a very good floor under soybeans,” she further explains.

Live Cattle Consolidate
Live cattle futures were mostly lower after hitting record highs on Wednesday on the heels of record cash.

She chalks it up to month end profit taking similar to the grain markets.

“We’ve had a healthy run you’re gonna have to have healthy pullbacks too. It’s good for the market so we’re obviously going to be trying to find support here grains as well same with the livestock just finding where that level of support is going to be where buyers are going to step back in and I think that’s the environment we’re in across the board,” she says.

Funds have been eager to buy on breaks which should also keep the market supported.

Dec Corn and Wheat see New Highs Before Fading: Live Cattle Chase Record Cash

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 21:39:28 GMT

Grains ended mostly higher except soft red winter wheat. Cattle ended mixed, hogs higher.

Grains Mostly Higher Chasing War Headlines
Grains ended mostly higher on Wednesday chasing war headlines with the Strait of Hormuz remaining closed and crude oil soaring $6 to $7 and looking poised to take out the March highs.

Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing says the grain markets were supported by money flow and funds were buying adding risk premium tied to war, inflation fears tied to higher energy prices and weather.

“Big up move in crude oil on Wednesday afternoon. And I think that’s tied back to the comments that are coming out of Trump. The ceasefire, the two-week ceasefire extension expires on Wednesday, expired on Wednesday night. Trump has made it pretty clear that we’re preparing for a lengthy blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. As long as that stays closed, we’re getting no energy, no fertilizer coming out of that. The longer we prolong that shortage, if you will, I think the more acute the problem becomes,” he says.

He says the longer it lasts the more the inflation concerns rise.

“The big move in oil, it spills over into the food commodities and particularly into the grains, whether it’s the biofuel connection or the outright just, you know, food connection that goes along with that. We’ve seen buying interest perk up there and money flowing into the complex.”

Wheat Makes New Highs Then Fades
All three classes of wheat hit new highs early Wednesday with new contract highs in hard red spring wheat and 22 month highs in hard red winter and soft red winter, before fading.

Chatterton says dry weather has been driving the hard red winter wheat market.

“Certainly, we’re looking at weather and what the production potential is in that hard red wheat crop, particularly the dryness in western Kansas. We had some more frost overnight. It didn’t help the situation,” he explains.

The other risk comes from inflation fears he says.

“I think the inflation play and just money flowing into our complex is the other side of that so a little bit of a marriage of those two and when you look at that and your money manager placing money into the grains complex wheat is where that fund length has not been present. So, it’s the natural absorber of that,” he adds.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking
The markets ended off their highs due to some farmer selling and profit taking as the market was overbought.

“Not enough damage here to really call any kind of a trend change or any kind of a top action in that chart.”

Still he thinks wheat prices could go higher until rains start falling.

“I think until we can get some assurance that you know the rains are going to start, the crop is going to stabilize these production ideas are going to stop going down you know we started at 700 million then it was 650 million then it was 625 and it was 600 now we’re sub 600 on that hard red wheat production number in some some analysts mind. So, we need to stop that trend and until we do I think that that upside emains open here,” he says.

Dec Corn Makes New Contract High, Does it Take Out $5?
The corn market has seen spillover support from higher wheat and crude oil and was also putting some inflation premium in.

December corn made a new contract high by 1 cent and then faded. So will it take out $5 eventually?

Chatterton says, “Yeah, I think we’re right on the cusp of it here. And again, I think, we’re well supported here and as being as close to that target as we are, I suspect that we make a, you know, make a move to and slightly above that. What happens from there, I guess we’ll have to see. But, you know, the market to me remains well supported again until we can get some kind of resolution in that Strait or Hormuz.”

Ethanol Production Down
Despite the run up in energy prices the ethanol production number was down 31,000 barrels per day for the week.

Chatterton says that is due to regular maintenance.

“We had the EIA data out on Wednesday at mid-session and another kind of sub par production week for ethanol. I think that’s just a sign that plants are taking their normal seasonal maintenance and a little bit of downturn here. Not anything that I would see as a long-term problem. If you look at kind of where we’re at production last week. Down 3% year over year. That is a little concerning. But overall, corn usage for ethanol is still up year over year. We are running a little bit below the seasonal pace to hit that USDA full-year target. But I think there’s plenty of time to recover from that. And blending fuels should certainly be in demand here as we go forward here, looking at the price of gasoline and diesel fuel,” he explains.

Planting Slowed
U.S. planting progress on Monday showed corn at 25%, 6% ahead of average and soybeans at a record 23%.

However, many planters are sidelined the last few days with heavy rains so will that negatively slow those numbers on Monday.

He says, “Yes, I suspect the progress numbers are still going to run ahead of normal here, Michelle, and not indicate any big overall problem. Now regionally there’s issues here. We had a pretty overdone rain here in central Illinois where I live over three inches here for the week so far and on top of some newly planted seeds for both corn and soybeans. So a little bit of replanting to be done. There’ll be a little bit of catch up that gets done.”

He says the cold temperatures will also slow emergence but so far there are no pending issues for traders to be concerned about.

I think the temperatures this week are going to prevent the crop from really you know, growing and accelerating, whether that’s germinating and coming out of the ground or just are just gaining on,

Soybeans Follow Bean Oil
Soybean futures were also higher following soaring soybean oil prices. The July contract was up 160 points and made new contract highs again supporting the soybeans.

“That certainly helps underpin what’s happening when you look at these crush rates whether it’s cash or board I mean these are some phenomenal $3 plus per bushel type crush rates no reason that these crushers won’t be running as fast as they possibly can or pushing through as much product as they can. The capacity constraint of of that is probably going to be tested here and going to be the issue going forward in terms of crush demand,” he says.

Record Soy Crush Margins
Crush margins have been running over $3.50 per bushel so very close to record highs.

“Historically, we’ve had some blips above that on a very short-term basis, but this time around, we’re looking at a little bit more of a sustained move that the change in the RVO and the biofuel regulations that have come out of the administration here, out of the EPA of late, are really changing the ideas here. And it looks like, you know, if we’re true to the numbers here, we’re going to follow those numbers to the letter of the law,”

So he says the U.S. refiners are going to need to not only use soybean oil, but probably import oils from other parts of the world.

“And on cue, we’re getting stories about China’s used cooking oil making its way to the U.S. West Coast here again,” he adds.

November Soybeans Near Contract Highs
November soybeans, despite 3.5 million or more additional acres expected this year, got within a penny of contract highs on Wednesday.

Will that market get over that technical barrier?

Chatterton says, “I think it’s a little bit more of a measure of approach here as we approach that level and kind of try and get on top of it. And where can we go? But, you know, the the outside markets or the oil markets are really floating all boats here. You know, so we’ll see how high that they can take us. In the meantime, like I said, the demand story has not changed. And, you know, we’re going to need those bean acres going forward here in the U.S. if we’re going to hold this kind of a domestic crush pace.”

FOMC Leaves Rates Unchanged, But For How Long?
The FOMC meeting wrapped up Wednesday and the Fed left rates unchanged which was no surprise.

However, with high energy prices driving inflation when is the Fed going to have to change its course of action here?

Chatterton says it is a very interesting scenario.

“You’ve got, you know, Warsh coming in as the new Fed chair. It’s a little bit unclear right now as to whether the current Fed chair is going to step aside or whether he’s going to, you know, run out his term here into the new year. And so depending on how that plays, if you get a new Fed chairman who has, I won’t say assured President Trump that he’s going to cut rates, but who has openly stated that he felt rates were too high. It can be very hard for him, I think, to initially raise rates in a situation where even if inflation is telling him to do so. So got a little bit of a cat and mouse game, I think, there going on,” he explains.

Still he thinks the market is better rates will go no where.

Live Cattle Make Record Highs on Record Cash
Feeder cattle futures set back on Wednesday, but nearby live cattle futures ended higher and made record highs.

This was on the heels of record cash trade which ranged from $250 to $258 live and $392 to $400 dressed.

Packers had to pay from $4 to $14 more for cattle this week to procure inventory so their margins are in the red.

But is the market looking anywhere close to a top?

you know, are the packers starting to bleed enough here that we’re going to roll this thing over

Chatterton says, “In reality, they were very aggressive buyers early in the week here, yesterday and today, midweek, you know, coming after cattle tells me that they’re short bought here and that they need the product. And even with margins getting worse, we’ve got them somewhere around a negative $140 a head on the spot marketplace. They’re continuing to come after cattle.”

He thinks cutout values will need to go higher to help balance out those negative margins.

“But for right now, you know, it’s really hard to call, you know, how high is high in this marketplace. They continue to bid up for cattle and show a need for them. So definitely the producers and the feeders have the upper hand here in the short term,” he adds.

Beef Demand Not Slowing
Even at these high prices it doesn’t seem like consumer demand is faltering.

“We’ve talked about record retail values, record wholesale values, the durability of the U.S. consumer and the demand base that’s going on there. So far, we continue to see that we’ve got the choice in the select basically neck and neck here in terms of, you know, not a premium for that choice or the select. I think that’s one thing. These grading rates with. you know more prime more choice you know coming out of the animal or out of the carcass here really kind of changing the old rules on that in real time,” he states.
and

Can Feeders Retest the Highs?
Feeder cattle set back on Wednesday with higher corn prices a limiting factor but Chatterton thinks there is a possibility to retest the highs.

“With the fund interest coming into the marketplace it looks like that door may be open. We had Florida announcing that they’re going to you know restrict cattle coming from the Texas border counties and require an inspection before they come into the state. I think that probably is a sign or can be at least interpreted as a sign that the Texas border opening or the U.S. Mexico border opening is nowhere close, that it’s still pretty far down the road and some things to be worked out there. So feeders to me still well supported,” he explains.

Hogs Higher on Technical Buying
Lean hog futures had a strong day with triple digit gains and June closed above the 20-day moving average.

He thinks the market saw some technical buying.

“Hogs have been, in a sideways pattern here, a little bit beat up. We’ve had that fund position get paired back a little bit. And then all of a sudden, you know, yesterday we got into that gap that was left two Fridays ago on the June chart. We weren’t able to kind of come out the other side yesterday, but we did that today. I think it’s a very positive technical sign with these funds a little bit, a little bit more dry powder than maybe what they’ve had here of late,” he says

News Highs Hit in Dec Corn, HRW Wheat and Live Cattle Wednesday

Wed, 29 Apr 2026 15:30:25 GMT

Grain and livestock futures were mostly higher early Wedneday.

Wheat Making More New Highs
Wheat futures were leading the gains again with new contract highs in hard red winter and hard red spring wheat contracts, which was pulling up soft red winter wheat.

Mark Knight with Farmer’s Keeper Financial says wheat continues to add weather premium with the drought conditions hitting the HRW production areas and deteriorating crop conditions.

The extended forecast has some rain in the works but totals from past forecasts have been disappointing and may be too late in some cases.

Knight says the wheat market is also adding risk premium tied to the prolonged Iran war and crude oil prices going back above $100 with the Strait of Hormuz still closed.

This is also adding to the fertilizer crunch and record price push that is driving global production concerns.

How Much Higher Will Wheat Prices Rally?
Knight says it’s tough to tell how high wheat prices may run.

“You know, when a market makes new highs in any of these markets, it’s difficult to try to pick a top and dangerous to try to pick a top, by the way. So we’ll just continue to see how that plays out. But yeah, it’s definitely leading the charge higher,” he says.

The two year highs in hard red winter wheat is also pulling soft red winter wheat along for the ride even though that crop is not seeing the same production concerns.

Knight says funds are buying HRW and SRW wheat just the same.

Corn and Wheat Add Fertilizer Premium
Both wheat and corn are also pricing in the higher fertilizer prices and the supply issues tied to the Iran war that may lead to lower acres and yields.

Knight explains, “Fertilizer prices are a real concern for wheat and corn, especially. You know, it still has me second guessing some of the acreage numbers that we’re dealing with on the corn side. Guys are going to, you know, I’ve talked to too many guys that just don’t want to chase those prices and they’re getting worse. I mean, I think we’re up $5 today in crude oil. So, yes, the Iran thing seems like it’s going to just continue.” he says.

Dec Corn Hits New Contract Highs
December corn made new contract highs on Tuesday night just shy of the $5 mark but is it just a matter of time before that level is cleared?

Knight says, “That’s a great question. There are so many orders around $5. I would encourage farmers to take advantage of these price levels. Like you said, we just put in a new high by, I think it was only a penny or so, or maybe even less than that. But take advantage of these price levels to get some grain marketed. Keep in mind what we did last year. I mean, I know we kept planting more corn, but markets kind of fell apart this time of year. Not to say that that’s going to happen anytime soon, but yeah. I think these are price levels that are profitable for guys.
And, yeah, I would absolutely get some marketing up here.”

Farmers Switching Out of Corn?
Farmer’s Keeper did a survey of 4,000 farmers and found that around 20% had decided to cut corn acres since the Middle East war drove up fertilizer prices.

Around 3.7% were going to plant more acres but the USDA Report will have the final vote.

“You know, I’m going to lean that when it’s all said and done on June 30th acreage report that we’re going to probably plant a little bit less corn than than even the planting intentions report said,” he adds.

Funds Buying Corn
All of those factors have funds back buying in the corn market and re-adding to their long position he says.

“I mean, look, the thought process is that, you know, beans are going to get the majority of those acres and you know funds are funds are long a 200,000 contracts of beans and they’re long 200,000 contracts of corn. Now they have just like you mentioned they have just gotten back into buying a little bit more corn as of as of late. So soybeans have been the laggard,” he explains.

Plus, corn has a record demand story and is slowing chewing through last year’s record crop.

“But you know we’re planting we’re likely to plant probably four million less acres less acres and demand remains really strong on the corn,” he adds.

Planting Slowed by Rain
Planting process nationally on corn was at 25% and soybeans were at a record 23% this week but that is likely to change with the heavy rain system that moved through the last few days.

“I was really surprised we were as far ahead as we are. Of course, I’m in Missouri here, and looking out my back door, we’ve caught every rain
possible. Iowa’s kind of in the same boat. But it was impressive to see, you know, we’ve got a quarter of the crop planted. I’m with you. I would think that we’re 11 points ahead on beans and six points ahead of the five-year average on corn. And I would expect that we’re going to probably look more like the five-year average or maybe even under it come this next week because with the cold, wet rains not much is getting done this week,” he states.

Soybeans Rally with Corn and Wheat
Soybeans were higher on Wednesday in tandem with corn, wheat and bean oil.

Despite the talk of more acres of soybeans the market has been held up by bean oil rallying to catch crude oil and higher diesel fuel prices.

However, the market is also holding China premium according to Knight.

“You know, I think there’s China premium and the Iranian thing is keeping bean oil extremely high. I am most worried about soybean prices long term and encouraging my farmers to really take advantage of these prices. Trump is is expected to go to China May 14 and 15 to get a deal signed. That meeting got kicked down the road once already. I’d give it a 50% chance of probably getting kicked down the road further. And I don’t think the bean market’s going to like that,” he says.

So he feels like prices are elevated.

“Trump has said multiple times in the last six months to a year, soybean farmers are really going to love me. And so there’s that anticipation that some great deal is going to get struck and signed with China. But it feels like to me that a lot of that’s already built into the soybean market. And so that coupled with my anticipation of more acres on the June 30th report has me really fearful for soybeans. So I would really encourage farmers to get more heavily sold, especially on the soybean side, and maybe keep some more risk open on the corn side.”

Soybeans Still Sideways
Even with all of those factors at work soybeans have remained sideways for weeks, so what will it take to break out of that range?

Knight says, “Some global event, weather-related event here in the U.S.”

Plus, if wheat and corn continue to rally he thinks they could lift soybeans.

EU Rejects Argentina Meal
The EU also rejected some cargoes of soybean meal this week as well due to non-approved GMO traits being detected and Knight says if that becomes a bigger issue it could push some business over to the U.S.

Knight says, “I’ve heard that it’s been happening quite a bit as of late. They’re throwing warning signs that could absolutely lead to to more U.S.
business. Obviously, we’ve had more crush facilities and crush capacity come online in the last couple of years. And the biggest worry has been, OK, we’re using more beans here are we going to fill up with meal? You know, what are we going to do with all the meal? And so that is obviously a positive for the U.S.:

Cattle Futures and Cash Hit Records
Live cattle futures were making record highs for a second day push by record cash trade on Tuesday.

Sales ran from $250 up to $256 late Tuesday and even some $257 was reported on Wednesday morning.

“The last six months every time we talk, it seems like we’ve just put in new highs. And I don’t know where it stops. It’d be great to be a cattle guy. Fundamentals are very strong. We’re getting into the grilling season. I don’t see prices declining anytime soon.” he adds.

Is $5 Corn a Reality as Wheat Pushes Above $7? Why Soybeans Didn't Follow Tuesday

Tue, 28 Apr 2026 21:26:11 GMT

Corn, wheat and cattle were higher Tuesday, soybeans and wheat ended lower.

Wheat Makes New Highs
Wheat futures were up 25 to 30 cents and the hard red winter and hard red spring wheat both hit new contract highs, with soft red winter wheat also hitting new highs for the move.

Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says the wheat market is adding risk premium tied to weather and global production and geopolitical concerns.

“I mean, most of it is weather because we’re looking at the dry conditions, rain being pulled out of the forecast. That really helped to push the market today. The fact that we continue to see the Strait of Hormuz closed and the idea that we could get some exports or some U.S. wheat moved into that region in the Middle East, continuing to help add some support,” he explains.

There are also concerns about tight fertilizer supplies globally.

“Lots of countries talking about cutting back on production or on acres because of the high cost of fertilizer and the tight supplies are hard to get. So I think all of that’s coming in to help push the wheat market,” he says.

Wheat Conditions Deteriorate
Hard red winter wheat ratings were steady at 30% good to excellent on Monday but the poor to very poor rating was up 2% which also gave the market a boost.

“The fact that we did see the increase in the poor to very poor, I think that did help push the wheat here. Then the weather forecast coming in later, taking the rain out or pulling some of that rain event out, added to it towards the end of the session,” he says.

Spring Wheat Planting Delays
Spring what planting delays are also supportive with 19% of the crop planted compared to the 22% five year average.’

He says, “You look up here in spring wheat country, in North Dakota we did get a little bit of progress done here this last week, but rain and cold
temperatures are in the forecast now. This week doesn’t look like we’re going to see a lot of activity taking place as a lot of the areas are just a little too wet and we’re not getting the heat to dry out the soil. So we’re going to see another week of poor progress as far as planting is concerned.”

How High Will Wheat Prices Rally?
So after the chart breakout how high will wheat prices rally?

He says, “I think as long as we continue to have this little bit of a problem and until we can get, you know, up in the spring wheat country and get planters rolling, I think we could see another 35 to possibly 75 cents push out of this. You know, we also see that, you know, USDA, we’re at USDA’s export projections. So exports are going to have to increase in the next report, which that’ll add a little bit of friendliness to it as well.”

Corn Follows Wheat Adds Risk Premium
Martinson says corn was also higher and made new highs for the move following the wheat complex but it was also adding risk premium.

“I mean, you know, the geopolitical, because of the straight staying closed, the fertilizer not getting to the U.S., you know, there’s still land changing hands and a lot of the new land that, you know, the producer doesn’t have fertilizer booked for isn’t going to go to corn. So we’re
looking at less corn acres being planted. There’s talk of even guys trying to tighten up their supplier, you know, spread it over more acres. It looks like corn acres will see a little suffer for that,” he explains.

He says this week’s weather also looks like it is going to slow down planting in the Corn Belt.

“And I think that added a little bit of support as well.”

How Far Will Corn Acres Fall?
The corn market is anticipating acres and production to fall due to the fertilizer crunch and higher prices, plus weather.

“I wouldn’t be surprised to see, you know, I’ve been expecting corn to be closer to the 93 million acre level. So I expect we could lose close to a million acres of corn.”

Will Dec Corn Hit $5?
December corn is closing in on the March contract highs at $4.98 1/2 but can it make it through that chart area and take out $5.

Martinson is optimistic, “I think we can. I mean, we got plentiful stocks and this could be more of a story for corn later in the season once we see where acres fall and stuff. But I do think that we could get up into a mid $5 area to, you know. maybe encourage producers to plant a little bit more corn than what they were thinking of, try to spend a little bit more on that fertilizer. So I do think we will see this market get above $5.”

Soybeans Fall
Soybeans were not able to extend Monday’s gains or follow higher corn and wheat.

It is a combination of the fear of more acres of soybeans

“I think they’re looking at more acres. And then, you know, we can kind of see that in the rapid planting progress for soybeans. I mean, that’s really been stellar so far this year. And I think that’s adding to the put a little bit of pressure on. I do think there’s a little geopolitical there because not everybody’s convinced that we’re going to see a U.S.-China summit take place here in two weeks.”

The market also saw profit taking after running up to the top side of the trading range it has been in for weeks.

“I mean, yeah, it’s been an extremely tight sideways trend in the soybean market. I do think we have an ability to get above it, but it’s going to take China and the U.S. having that summit meeting, and it’s going to take China saying they’re going to buy some more soybeans from the U.S.” adds Martinson.

Soybeans Await China Meeting
There is a concern for the market tied to the idea that if the Strait of Hormuz is closed and the conflict with Iran continues it could blow up the mid-May meeting and its outcome according to Martinson.

“Iran and China are friends and a lot of China’s energy comes from Iran. So the fact that the Strait stays closed and we’re putting a blockade on any oil vessels, crude oil vessels coming out of Iran, that is causing some concerns and raising a little bit of tensions with China.”

$100 Crude Oil Supports Bean Oil
On the flip side, the $100 crude oil market is supporting the bean oil rally.

Martinson says, “It is helping bean oil, and it is encouraging a little bit more of our, maybe our biofuels industry to continue to expand.”

Meal Reacts to EU Canceling Argentine Soybean Meal
The soybean meal market was higher on Monday on the news that Argentina soybean meal was rejected by the European Union due to the detection of an unapproved GMO trait.

So will the U.S. see any sales as a result?

“I think we will get some, but I think the market was disappointed. We didn’t see anything sooner than, you know, of course, it was tough to get, you know, something right away. But I think the market set back a little today off of the concerns that we didn’t see any repurchasing
from the European Union. But I do think we will be able to get into that market and sell a little bit more, especially if this GMO trait continues to be showing up in the Argentina beans,” he says.

Live Cattle Hit Record Highs Again
Live cattle futures soared again on Tuesday and nearby contracts made record highs.

It was a combination of technical buying but also cash bids from packers at $250, which is higher than last week and those bids were being offered already on a Tuesday.

Martinson says that pushed the futures, “I mean, you know, right now cash is, I mean, cash has been king for quite a while and that’s what’s been continuing to drive both the live cattle and the feeder cattle market. You know, supplies continue to be tight. We’re not seeing that change any and it’s unlikely we’re going to see any border opening because of the large increase in cases of screw worm up in Mexico. So I do think that, you know, cash continues to be the king and that continues to what’s main driver of this market.”

Feeder Cattle Also Testing Highs
The feeder cattle futures were also testing the highs.

Martinson says the cash feeder market has been strong on tight supplies, “I mean, a lot of that crop has been moved now so that supplies are going to continue to tighten up. That, I think, will keep that price a little bit strong. It’s going to be interesting to see where all this settles out, but I wouldn’t be surprised to see this market continue to hold until the fall calves start coming in.”

And drought in cattle areas is going to result in more cattle coming to market early because they have no grass.

“You’re starting to see those western regions, you know, rain being pulled out of the forecast. Getting a little tougher for them to get rain. And they’re seeing the wildfires that we saw earlier, especially in Nebraska earlier this spring. So there is a lot of concern about being able to hold the cattle,” he adds.

Grain and Livestock Rally With Risk On Buying, Weather Concerns

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 21:34:50 GMT

Grain and livestock futures ended higher on Monday.

Risk on Buying
The grain and livestock futures saw commodity wide speculative buying to start the week according to DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing.

The markets had a risk on tone due to the lack of resolution to the Iran war and reopening the Strait of Hormuz but weather also drove the market.

“And when you really don’t hear bullish stories to drive the market, it probably is more just fund direction. And the funds have been buying everything recently, right? You know, a little bit of wheat even. They finally bought corn back again after getting out of a lot of their longs earlier. I think the weak longs are out. They’re back in buying. Even soybeans today, really good buying, which was surprising seeing how long they already are in that soybean complex.”

Funds Length in Soybean Complex a Concern?
When you add up the fund long position in the soybean complex it is already pushing over 470,000 contracts.

So do the funds keep pushing the long side of the soybean complex?

Bosse says, “I guess today the answer to that is yes, they will. That’s surprising though to me because that’s like the fifth largest combined they’ve ever been. We combine all of them, but you look today, all of them were up. Soybean meal was up, soybean oil was up. Usually you see those contradict each other a little bit, right, and spreads too. We’re entering kind of a different era in soybeans where crush and soybean oil is the strongest demand. It used to be meal was the biggest demand. Now meal is kind of the byproduct we kind of have to get rid of. And that’ll probably be through our export market.”

He says he’s not as bearish soybeans as he once was.

“I still think export demand is going to have to get trimmed down a little bit by USDA, but not the 100 to 150 million bushels I was threatening before,” Bosse adds.

Frost in Argentina
On Monday meal was the leader on short covering but also due to possible frost or freeze damage to the soybean crop in Argentina as temperatures dipped Monday morning.

Bosse says, “Remember, Argentina is still the lead exporter in soybean meal throughout the world, so if you did hurt that crop at all, it’s soybean meal that should react first here. Now, I really question how much damage, but it’s one of those, we’re the futures market, we’re going to put the premium first, and then they’ll ask those questions about how much production was really damaged. The reason I’m saying that is they’re harvesting some, and most U.S. producers know, well, if you’re harvesting frost, isn’t going to really hurt the beans. But of course, those are big countries in South America, North to South. So there’s probably some late maturing soybeans that it could have been dinged for sure,” he explains.

New Crop Soybean Upside Potential?
With an additional 3.5 million more acres of soybeans expected to be planted in the U.S. in 2026 if the U.S. does not get China in buying the 25 million metric tons of new crop soybean promised the ending stocks figure could quickly balloon.

Bosse thinks there will be more acres added to USDA’s estimate in the Prospective Plantings Report and China is still less than certain.

“I really question the whole China buying, even the 25 MMT for new crop. It’s just world stocks are record high and prices are cheaper than U.S. I think Argentina is like $1.20 cheaper than us. Brazil’s like 60 cents cheaper than us. So, it just it doesn’t really make a lot of economic sense for them to come and buy from us. I mean I get there’s the whole lot of political reasons but that can only go so far,” he adds.

So, he is looking at put options to hedge new crop soybeans.

Corn Makes New Highs for the Move
July corn futures made new highs for the move on Monday following wheat and soybeans but Bosse thinks the market has its own story.

“You know, the war in Iran, even though I am really tired of reporting about it in the Trump posts back and forth, it’s still ongoing. The Strait is
still closed for the most part. That means higher fertilizer, higher fuel prices for the world. To me, that’s a big story that corn should have rallied. quite a bit more than this for the last month and we just haven’t you know not to mention the whole you know will we get all the acres planted,” he says.

States like North Dakota look cold and wet in the 8-14 day forecast and they aren’t alone.

“I wouldn’t say we’re late or delayed planting. I don’t think we have to rally on that just yet but it’s starting to raise my eyebrows a little bit they’re like oh we could have an issue here. So, I think corn has its own story and should continue to rally higher,” he says.

New Crop Corn Adding Input Premium?
New crop or December corn is closing in on the March high of $4.98 1/2 and it could be putting in some input premium according to Bosse.

“I mean, that’s where the supply could change a lot in new crop, right? World stocks are actually like at a seven or eight year low. Our export demand is phenomenal. So if we decrease acres a little bit or we don’t use as much fertilizer as we should, a new crop situation could be quite tight, maybe like a 1.6 to 1.7 for an ending stock. Well, that’s fairly bullish and this market should rally,” he explains.

However, he says some times the market just sees bull spreading. “Because people just want to buy the old crop bushels instead of even worrying about the new crop supply. But you’re right, it’s the new crop that should put a premium in, but I doubt we’ll see it.”

Lack of Farmer Selling
Meanwhile, July corn did see a chart breakout and that could be due to the lack of farmer selling because of farmers focusing on planting.

“Absolutely, 100%. Nobody wants to go fire up a truck and haul any grain in right now. Everyone’s trying to get the crop planted. June is more the month where, okay, let’s empty bins out and that. So no, farmer selling has dried up. Sadly, I can see nationwide the base is improving. It really isn’t up here for us in the Northern Plains. We’re still at wide basis up here. But like you said, that’s kind of part of having that big old crop and a lot of farmer supply is still sitting out there,” he says.

Wheat Makes Fresh Highs
The wheat market also made more new highs for the move adding weather premium, especially with the drought in the Southern Plains.

How much more weather premium does the market need to add?

Bosse says, “I could actually see it going up quite a bit more. I could see KC wheat obviously getting to $7.00 and I could see it really on a chart a continuous chart banner going to $7.50 but that’s if it doesn’t rain.”

If it does rain he thinks the market will start trying to price in a lower yield number.

“And if you start talking to national wheat yield below 42 bushels an acre, well, it gets pretty tight in the U.S. Now, sadly, Michelle, I think we could just ration export demand and just bring it all back later. But it’s helping to push like Minneapolis wheat higher, which is the wheat that’s grown in my area up here. And I like that. I’m looking at it as an opportunity to start getting hedges in place,” he says.

Spring Wheat Planting Delays
The spring wheat market is concerned about getting all of the acres planted and already started with historically low acres to begin with.

“Right, we don’t have a lot of wiggle room there. We didn’t start up with high acres and we can trim some off. It sounds like from the west of me, like closer to the river, we’ve gotten a lot of the spring wheat in. Some of it even coming up, looking nice. But North Dakota, from the clients I talked to up there, not a lot of activity yet. It’s just been very damp soils. They just haven’t gotten going. But I think we’ll see that in the crop progress report this afternoon. And so, you know, the premium’s probably justified for now,” he states.

Cattle Up a Third Day
Cattle futures were up for a third day and are still recovering off the lows scored last Thursday.

Bosse says part of the reason is the market is not as concerned about the border reopening to Mexican cattle imports after USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled her trip to Arizona.

“And, you know, some guys are trying to link it back to more screw worm cases being found in Mexico. You know, maybe they’re just not going to open the border now for a while. I had always heard things that the border wasn’t going to be open even until July anyway. And at that point, it was going to be just small stages from west to east. So to me, it shouldn’t affect things like June fat cattle or nearby feeders but you know the market takes that news and runs with it,” he explains.

With that meeting not happening speculation continues to run high on when the border will reopen but for now the market looks stronger.

“This week cash could be higher, boxes are higher, we got some big holidays coming up for beef demand. I’m excited about the market for this week at least,” he says.

Market Bounces Technically
Plus the market also held technically where it needed to.

“We were getting to some little retracement levels that I was watching fairly close. And when this market sells off, I ask myself over time, is this it? Are we done? Are we going to crash back now? But for the umpteenth time in a row now, we were bouncing off support. We corrected the overbought position. Now the question is, can we go back and test the contract highs or even make new contract highs? I guess we’ll have to see here,” he states.

He is also concerned about what happens if screw worm gets to the U.S.

“I’m still worried about it, especially as the temps get warm. It’s going to come across in something, a deer, a raccoon, something it’s going to come across on,” he says.

Hogs Bottoming?
Lean hogs were mostly higher on Monday after higher weekly closes. So is the market trying to bottom?

Bosse thinks technically the market is trying to hold plus the seasonal low usually hit around this time.

“Demand should be stronger here this next month. And, you know, there’s still always these questions about the U.S. production. Sounds like there’s been a lot of disease pressure. It’s really hard to get confirmation on that now anymore, but I’ve heard some of that. Now, don’t
look for China to come and buy any of our pork, though. As far as global supplies, it’s very large and we’re higher priced than the rest of the world,” he adds.

Cattle Bottoming as Border/Strike Talk Fear Eases and Cash Ideas Improve

Mon, 27 Apr 2026 15:29:34 GMT

Cattle, hogs and grains are all higher early Monday.

Cattle Extend Gains a Third Day
Live and feeder cattle futures are higher on Monday for a third day.

Brad Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says some of the recovery is technical in nature as the June live cattle bounce off of key support and the 38% retracement level around $243.00 last Thursday.

Border Fears Subside
Part of the bounce also came as fears subsided regarding a possible reopening of the border to Mexican feeder cattle imports.

The fear started already on April 17 when USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins was in Texas for the ground breaking of the new sterile fly facility to help combat New World screwworm (NWS).

However, Rollins was also scheduled for a trip to Arizona on Friday, April 24 which renewed fears of an announcement.

So, Kooima says when Rollins said Thursday she was canceling the trip the market breathed a sigh of relief.

“She canceled her trip due to biosecurity reasons as you’ve got a case that’s supposedly was within 60 miles of the Texas border even though this port that she was going to go to out there by Douglas is almost 800 miles away from there,” he explains.

Cash Market Firms With Board
Following the recovery in the futures the feedlots started to pass on packer bids of $246 being offered for fed cash cattle.

Kooima says there was some trade at $246 and $386 dressed but by Friday some feeders in the North were passing on $248 as feedlots regained leverage.

“I certainly have a little more optimism this week on a Monday than I did last week for cash. I think there’s a real shot we can get back to $250. We shall see. But the show list up here, very small. And we’re in that kind of that in-between time, Michelle, where the yearlings are largely gone. We’re trying to push these calves to get fat and the weather’s been great. So some of them are pretty close, but you know, this holding action type of a deal that we’ve had for a while, I think this holding action rally here is going to continue until it doesn’t,” he says.

He thinks producers will be slow to sell when it costs $1 to put gain on and so he thinks supplies will be tight for the next 30 to 45 days.

Fear of Potential Fort Morgan Plant Strike Ease
Early last Thursday, the market also sold off on fear that workers at the Cargill beef plant at Fort Morgan, Colorado, were going to walk out. Kooima says the plant did not slaughter Thursday, Friday or Monday while negotiations were taking place.

“Supposedly they were going to return to, or they were going to start negotiations this week. What I do know is that it sounds like this is not a union backed strike, that this is what they would call a wildcat strike, which people are kind of voluntary. I say, Hey, we’re leaving, you know, blah, blah, blah. I’m not certain as to what. their demands exactly are what the beef is or what they’re trying to what they’re trying to accomplish other than I suppose the obvious, more pay less work,” he adds.

The plant has a capacity of 4,700 but is currently slaughtering only around 4,000 currently. Still he says the market has faded the news like it isn’t that concerned.

“It might affect that cash market, maybe that Western Nebraska, Colorado market, maybe more than anything else. But I’ll keep you posted. At this point, it’s kind of day to day. And I think the market would tell you that they don’t expect it’s going to last long. Otherwise, I think we’d be trading worse,” he says.

Plus, shackle space is at a surplus to available cattle right now softening the blow.

However, he says if boxed beef prices don’t improve soon to help get packer margins back in the black it could lead to additional plant closures.

“But unless this box beef catches here somebody’s going to have to drop again. I mean, the packer, that side of the industry is not just going to sit there and merrily lose $200 a head every day without closing another place or severely cutting this kill back.”

Funds Stay Long Cattle?
The latest Commitment of Traders Report indicated funds are still long around 135,000 futures and option positions and have exited about 1,800 positions as of last Tuesday.

So is there a fear that the commodity fund traders are going to continue to liquidate just because the market already hit the record highs?

He says, “You bet there’s a fear, at least for some of us, for me. That would be the gorilla in the room here. The fundamentals, really good.

June cattle, probably. a little higher priced normally than what they would be basis wise I think last year we were like $8 or $10 under cash. So if you get $248 and the basis was like last year you could have June cattle at $240 or $238. It’s not it’s at $247 okay with the last cash the best of the last cash at $248. Sp, is it that the cash is too low or are the futures too high?”

Hogs Bounce or Bottom?
Lean hog futures were higher Monday and had a higher weekly close last week.

So is the market putting in a bottom and how much upside is there?

Kooima says, “Hog charts have a nice looking formation, you know, had that big outside day down where it looked like they were in a wreck on Thursday, came back gap higher last week and just barely by the skin of our teeth, we’ve been holding that gap, which is good. So I would like to get us above $103.70, above the 20-day to make me feel just a bit better about it.”

He says feeder pigs are running nearly $140 a head, which is a function of tight supply creaated by another round of big-time disease problems in some of the farrowing units in the North,” he explains that has him a bit friendly.

Grains Rally, Corn Makes Fresh Highs
Grains were higher early Monday with old crop corn making fresh highs for the move.

Corn has received some help from the weather rally in wheat but may be trading its own weather concerns with heavy rains over the weekend in some key production areas of the Midwest.

“And get used to it. This is what you and I will be talking about for the next three months, right? Whether it did or if it didn’t, or did it rain where it’s supposed to.”

However, he is not overly bullish due to the large carryout and poor basis in the Northwestern Corn Belt.

“So we’re right at halfway back on the July corn on this last move so that we’re going to learn a little bit about the market right here, I’d love to see the basis tighten and it usually is tightest when guys are out in the field worried about planting corn they’re not sitting by their grain bin loading corn,” he says.

Soybeans have been sideways for the last six weeks says Kooima, and he thinks the crude oil and bean oil story is about running its course too.

“I don’t know how far you can stretch that rubber band. So a long way to go here. We got a long growing season and we’ll see once,” he adds.

Wheat Hits New Highs: Why Corn and Beans Could Not Follow

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 21:41:46 GMT

Grains ended mixed Thursday with wheat and corn higher, soybeans lower. Cattle and hogs were mostly higher.

Wheat Breaks to New Highs
Wheat futures saw a chart breakout and made fresh highs led by the hard red winter wheat futures which were up on the July contract 29 1/4 at $6.79 1/4, with July soft red winter wheat up 13 1/4 at $6.20 1/4.

Garrett Toay with AgTraderTalk says the HRW wheat market was adding weather premium with forecasts continuing to look hot and dry for the Southern Plains.

Can Wheat Continue to Rally?
Now that the wheat market has seen a technical breakout how high could prices run?

Toay says the charts look very constructive trading on a weekly continuation chart through the 200-day moving average of $6.75. “I mean, especially on that July Kansas City weekly chart. Now we open it up and, you know, it looks like there may be, you know, 40 or 50 cents, you know, 30, 40 cents, I should say, of upside follow through here.”

That opens up a move over $7 towards the May 2024 spike highs.

However, he says soft red winter wheat is getting pulled along for the ride.

“You also saw new contract highs in the KC Chicago spread, renewed concerns about drought, renewed concerns about the frost. You definitely have a kind of a tale of two wheat belts,” he adds.

However, he thinks the rally is may be capped by the fact that ending stocks are still ample and U.S. wheat prices are starting to be expensive on the world front.

Corn Barely Follows Wheat
Despite the big rally in wheat the corn market ended just a penny higher with July at $4.63 3/4.

Toay says the big supply keeps capping the rallies and the corn market doesn’t have a bullish story anymore if the war is ending in Iran.

“The Iran war started and everything got excited. So, you know, if the Iran war is getting in the final innings here, then we kind of revert back to that old story where there’s really not much of a story there,” he says.

Basis is firming on corn as farmers get into the fields especially as demand has been strong.

“So it’s a function of when does the farmer sell and move the remaining old crop stocks. And that’s probably going to happen here in the
next six to eight weeks for the most part. And then you’ve got another tranche of selling that will happen in July and August. So, you know, right now the farmer’s kind of uninvolved. They’re focused on, you know, getting the new crop planted. And, you know, so there’s really no story,” he explains.

Technically the market was held back on Thursday by lower soybeans.

Soybeans See Technical Selling
Soybean futures were lower again on follow through selling after the chart failure on Wednesday as the market went up to a 1/4 cent from the March high on the November contract and failed and July also could not break out of its sideways range.

“When beans are back testing their highs there just 24 hours ago, I mean, you had everything kind of firing on all cylinders. then we had the rejection and then everything fell apart you know you have to remember these markets are computer traded and they’re all tied together so that had a heavy influence,” he says.

Bean oil is still the strong leg of the soy complex with better than expected demand he remarks. “Considering the crush rates, bean oil is the straw that stirs the drink. And that’s still tied to the energy markets and crude approaching $100 a barrel again.”

So he’s not concerned about the key reversal scored in the bean oil market on Wednesday off the new contract highs because the market has already negated several of those.

“These bean oil stocks especially look at the the the last NOPA crush we had a record crush and bean oil stocks saw a draw so that that tells us that this demand for the product is extremely strong,” he adds.

Weather and Planting
Toay says so far planting is running ahead of the normal pace nationally but there have been some wet extended forecasts for the Midwest and Northern Plains that could slow planting.

He says the market doesn’t get concerned about impacts on national corn yield until May 10th or May 15th timeframe.

“So we still have some time, especially considering the size of the equipment that we have. But it’s going to be a struggle around here. I mean, looking out my backyard, I mean, we’re in northern Illinois. We had seven inches of rain last week. Things are just now starting to get fit. We’ve had three, four days of 80-degree weather and sunshine. And so we see sprayers out there and anhydrous ammonia bars. We’re in the area where probably 20%, 30% of the producers still put on spring anhydrous so that has to go on. So I think that there’s a lot of work to be done.”

China Meeting
Toay also thinks the soybean market is sensitive to the outcome of the mid-May meeting with China since the U.S. has not seen any new crop soybean business or any of the 8 MMT of old crop purchases announced by President Trump.

“Since President Trump mentioned the 8 million metric ton of additional purchases, I mean, they’ve kind of drawn a line in the sand that they’re willing to buy. U.S. ag products, but soybeans aren’t probably one of them. You know, the South American crop is big. It’s, what, six, eight million metric ton bigger than this point last year. You know they’re still cheaper than U.S. beans, even without the tariffs they imply. And, the private crusher isn’t going to want to buy anything out of the U.S.” he adds.

Toay thinks the quality of China’s corn crop was poor and they may need corn and they’ve been buying a lot of wheat. “Which they’re trying to blend off and feed. But, you know, export sales today, had 190 million metric ton of sorghum to China. That’s fantastic news, especially for producers in the Southern Plains,” he says.

The Iran war has also drug out longer than President Trump anticipated and is diverting his attention away from trade according to Toay. Still, USTR, Jamieson Greer reiterating this week that China wants to expand ag purchases.

Cattle Bounce or Bottom?
Cattle futures finally broke the six day streak of lower closes since the correction off contract highs on short covering.

The market saw early selling with news of a workers strike at the Ft. Morgan beef plant which slaughters around 4,000 head.

However, the market rebounded well off its lows as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins canceled an appearance in Arizona schedule for Friday that had the market fearful of a border reopening announcement.

“With April expiration or first notice day coming up here and, you know, we’re right here at cash. So the back of my mind, we saw a similar type of price action in the last delivery cycle. And that idea hasn’t lost on me that we may see open interest liquidation by those who don’t want to participate into the delivery cycle or cash settle.”

Still cash is at $246, down $2 and the board is at $2.47 so he says the lows are in line with where cash cattle traded.

High Gas Prices and Consumer Demand
He adds that gas prices are still high at the pump even though crude oil has had a $20 to $30 break.

So he is concerned that beef prices may be too high relative to disposible income and consumers are trading down to cheaper alternative proteins like pork and poultry.

six weeks from a cattle perspective is that I realize it. beef prices are high.

Wheat Rallies on Weather but Fails to Excite Row Crops: When Will the Markets Trade Inflation?

Thu, 23 Apr 2026 15:57:23 GMT

Soybeans were lower early Thursday with wheat higher and corn trading both sides. Livestock were also lower.

Wheat Holding Weather Premium
Wheat futures were higher on Thursday after some profit taking and a lower close the previous session.

Darin Newsom, senior market analyst with Barchart, says wheat is holding weather premium with the deteriorating crop conditions.

“Given what we’ve seen this spring where the winter crops never really went into a full dormancy, at least that’s what I’ve been told. And then we had a warmer winter and they started growing again, then get hit by a March freeze, it grows again, gets hit by an April freeze and so on. So based on all of that and the fact that the drought readings across the Plains continue to worsen, then we could say, yes, this, you know, what we’re seeing here is likely a result of building some weather premium in,” he says.

Does the market needs to add more premium?

Newsom says old crop contract do not with the ample supplies of wheat around the world.

“The reality is if we look at the future spreads, we’re not seeing the commercial side of the market react like we’ve got a supply and demand scare anywhere on the horizon for both hard red winter or soft red winter. Even though I know there’s an asterisk attached due to soft winter being subject to the CME’s lower variable storage rate of 5 cents per bushel per month. We’ve got soft red winter future spreads covering 70% to 80% calculated full commercial carry, which is bearish, which tells us there is no supply concern in relation to demand.”

He says there are also some speculators that are looking at wheat as attractive.

Technically Wheat Unable to Take Out Resistance
Wheat futures have also been unable to take out recent highs which for July HRW wheat would be $6.63.

He says the only thing to get the market above those levels is a continued deterioration of the weekly crop ratings, which could trigger algorithms into buying.

Corn Holding as Farmer Selling Slow
The corn market put in three days of higher closes and is trying to push through resistance on the charts with the help of the wheat market but also slow farmer selling as planting ramps up.

He says that has taken some pressure off the cash market and basis has firmed.

“If we look at the National Corn Index, we see that it has been firming in relation to the futures market. So we know basis has been firming. Now, I say that, and it’s an interesting situation in the national average basis market for corn in the fact that it has been firming. We have seen the cash market pick up a little bit as sales have slowed and demand still is out there. But if we look at the big picture and we look at the previous five-year low weekly closes and 10-year low weekly closes, You know, the market’s still running below those levels. So we know overall national average basis is weak. This tells us there’s still ample supplies to meet demand. It’s just immediate term. Those supplies have slowed down. Farmers are doing other things. They’ve gone out to the field,” he says.

Corn Hits Chart Resistance
Exports were also strong on Thursday at 51.8 million bu. but the market is still running up into stiff chart resistance.

Funds are holding a large net long futures position in corn so with the market up into the upper end of the trading range it may spark some selling eventually he says.

“So when we get these rallies and when we start testing those high ends of the sideways range you know it’s probably going to generate some selling for lack of any real commercial support coming in,” he says.

Soybeans and Bean Oil Look Technically Weak?
Soybeans and bean oil were lower on Thursday morning after November beans put in a double top on the charts and bean oil made new contract highs and then ended lower, scoring a key reversal.

Newsom says that technical damage doesn’t mean as much as it used to with today’s algorithm traders but is still generating new selling in the market.

“The algorithms just simply don’t look at double tops and they don’t look at key reversals and they don’t look at these sorts of things in the soybean oil market,” he says.

The strength recently in soybean oil has been tied to the diesel fuel market which was cooling a bit Thursday morning and that was also weighing on futures.

Newsom also points out the speculators were holding a record long position in bean oil. “And so this normally opens the door to some liquidation and so beans are just along for the ride because there are no other changes in fundamentals.”

Beyond profit taking the soybean market continues to trade concern about the mid-May meeting with China and the impact the ongoing war with Iran will have on the outcome. Days when the war tensions rise it weighs on soybeans.

Grains Divorcing From War or Will Inflationary Buying Kick In?
With the exception of the the bean oil and canola markets, Newsom says the rest of the grain space has seemingly tried to divorce from the war headlines and energy markets.

“I don’t think the grain sector is really watching all of the changing headlines but it gets caught up in it you know once the headlines change or are manipulated for market moving reasons,” he adds.

The next key will be when does inflation risk start to be traded in the grain markets, especially if energy prices remain elevated?

He says, “I think grains are out there. They will be an opportunity, I think, that will be looked at with some of these new traders and inflation.”

There will also be inflation tied to higher input prices and Newsom says he doesn’t think the fund traders take that into account.

“But the commercial side of these markets will certainly take it into account. So let’s say that because of input costs, we’re going to even plant fewer corn acres. We’re going to start to see that if it’s a real situation, if it’s really happening, we’re going to see that in those deferred corn future spreads. And if more acres are going over to soybeans at a time when there’s a serious doubt about global demand for U.S. soybeans, then I think we’re going to see the opposite trade starting to develop. We’re going to see more carry being built into this soybean spreads. And a lot of this, again, will have to do with U.S. inflation, input costs, and so on,” he says.

But Newsom adds that bottom line the algorithms don’t care if U.S. producers can’t make money.

“Never have, never will. It’s just not important until it actually starts to change the supply and demand situation. And we’ll first know that through basis and spreads.”

Inflation Fear Keeps Interest Rates Flat
The fear of inflation will likely also mean no change in interest rates next week at the FOMC meeting.

“Yeah, the inflation fears probably have put any idea of a rate cut on hold for the time being. And as we look at the Fed fund futures forward curve, there’s nothing expected to happen now through the balance of 2026. Shortly after the U.S. President went to war on Iran, we saw the October-November futures contracts, or the Fed Fund futures contracts, dip to a point where it was indicating a rate hike, possibly this fall. So, but that’s been erased as well as, you know, the status quo settled in. Nothing really expected to change. We’re also going to, except for the fact that we’ll have a new chair, theoretically. And reportedly after this meeting, I think Chairman Powell’s term ends in May. And so, you know, then we’ll see what direction the Fed starts to take.”

Grains Rally Led by Three Year Highs in Bean Oil: Cattle Fall

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 21:43:21 GMT

Grain and hog markets ended higher on Tuesday with cattle lower.

Soybeans and Soybean Oil Lead Rally
Soybeans and multi-year highs in the soybean oil market led the grain complex higher on Tuesday.

Mike Minor with Professional Ag Marketing says bean oil hit a three-year high and was following crude oil but is still pricing in the positive RVO news.

“That’s been feeding it for quite some time. And then tied along with today’s obvious crude oil move higher, it looks like Trump’s ceasefire probably won’t get extended. So a little bit of that got traded today on the soybean oil side, I would argue,” he says.

Can Soybeans Extend the Rally?
He says new crop November soybeans also had a bit of a chart breakout.

“We were building in a wedge pattern lately and we kind of broke and slingshotted out of that thing today. And I’ve been waiting for that a little while just to see if it was going to be an up or down move. And it looks like that was a pretty good up move there,” he says.

July soybeans ran into chart resistance though around the $11.91 area and will need some bullish news to continue to move higher.

But can November soybeans extend gains?

“The November contract was only $0.04 from a contract high that we’ve had recently at $11.74 today. So right back to those highs. So a little bit of selling pressure there around that level, along with the July hitting up against that key resistance point, Michelle. So we’ll see if it has some
trouble above these levels or not. Or if crude oil continues to move, we keep getting something that can feed this soybean contract. But overall, I never saw anything super substantial for moving soybeans specifically higher today he adds.

Corn Follows Soybeans or Wheat?
Corn futures were higher initially following soybeans and bean oil but in past sessions has seen spillover from higher wheat.

Minor says, “I feel like corn has been playing follow the leader, and it’s been switching back and forth between wheat, specifically with some of their big up days, and then obviously with soybeans being up 10 most of the day today, it wanted to be up a couple cents as well. So it’s tried following those along on the days wheat’s been up and that correlates somewhat when we’ve had crude oil up or our outside market fundamentals moving a little bit.”

He says the spreads have also been rallying.

“And it could just be because of some funds coming in. It could be crude oil moving up. It could be some inflation hedging. It could be a little bit about the old crop balance sheet, just trying to buy a few bushels here up front during planting,” he explains.

Corn Hits Resistance
July corn also closed up into resistance at the $4.62 level and needs an additional bullish catalyst to break higher.

“Some of the cash fundamentals on corn and soybeans in these front months has been pretty important. We’ve been able to rally these spreads, tighten them up, narrow them up a little bit on old crop. And I think that’s just lack of movement across the countryside. I think once we get through planting, we’ll have some more bear pressure on those old crop months specifically.”

He says in the Western Corn Belt, basis has been improving on soybeans as yields were fairly normal.

Planting Ahead of Normal
Planting nationally was 7% ahead of normal on soybeans and 2% ahead of normal on corn planting but the market faded it in part because Iowa is lagging on both corn and soybean planting with wet conditions.

Minor says, “You go with that eastern part of the state in Iowa, kind of Missouri for sure. It looks like the forecast is still super wet. They’ve been wet. They’ve had no real look at the fields at all. Probably eastern Iowa, Missouri, Michigan, Wisconsin, that whole stretch. Even eastern Minnesota is pretty wet yet. So when I look at those areas, very, very far behind. But it’s early. We’re sitting at the 21st of April still. My rule of thumb normally is once we get past that WASDE report in May, then we get a pretty good look at it.”

So that will be a key time frame because if the wet forecast continues through May 10 and the 6-10 days beyond that the funds will start to care.

China Meeting
That time frame also coincides with the scheduled meeting between President Xi and Trump on the 14th and 15th.

“So there’s going to be a lot going on right in that time frame in that second or third week of May that could move the market,” he adds.

Wheat Ratings Drop
Wheat futures saw some profit taking early in the day session but came back on weather and still digesting the crop ratings which were down
4% nationally to 30% good to excellent.

The reason it didn’t provide more of a push to the market is because it was largely traded on Monday but those conditions aren’t likely to improve with frost that has now damaged the crop.

“It’s become quite volatile again off multi-year lows, which made sense with the poor crop conditions down South. It’s still struggling. I mean, we’ve got wheat heading out in places a couple weeks early for what it probably should be. So not a great sign. I still think a little bit of rain could help that Southern Plains area for sure. But some spots are just going to be too late as well,” he adds.

Can Wheat Rally Further?
The wheat market has still not taken out the recent highs in SRW or HRW classes and will need a catalyst to get above those levels.

He says the wheat market is also heavily dependent on inflation and hedge funds coming in to buy and how the crop finishes in the Southern Plains.

“I still think it’s a lot of outside market fundamentals. The wheat market can get inflation hedging bought up with the crude oil market, for example. And then just talking about things like today’s U.S. dollar move, things like that will be important as well. But mainly just the weather market that we’ll have in the Southern U.S. going forward,” he explains.

Cattle Market Falls Further
Cattle futures saw early strength erode on technical selling and fund long liquidation.

Minor says this is a healthy correction off of contract and record highs but it has been triggered by fear of the border reopening to Mexican cattle.

“I think, because the meeting going on on Friday in Arizona with Brooke Rollins going to visit the border. So that leaves a lot of questions up in the air on what could happen there. And I think that’s kind of at the heart of it. We’ve had a really good rally again, so having some fun liquidation totally makes sense. Little pullback. We tried to fight back higher today, and I thought we were fighting at a pretty good close, and then it kind of had a poor close by the end of it here, technically. So looking at that 20-day just under us as support for a lot of these months.”

However, he isn’t concerned yet because of the strong fundamentals.

“Kill’s been super low lately. Packers have been trying to get margins back to a comfortable level, trying to kill few cattle as they can, get meat propped up pretty well. And it seems to be responding. It’s always worrisome when they pull kill way back and then you don’t see cutout respond. But we’ve seen choice and selects respond a little higher here recently. So I thought that was a good sign, especially going into the right time of the year as well seasonally. We should be seeing that bump anyways,” he says.

What if Support is Breached?
However, if the futures take out 20-day moving average support, he thinks how much lower will you fall?

“Well, we’ve gone up for about five, six straight years now. So we can do some pretty hard technical damage on this chart. This cattle market can take some really, really big swings, I think, off of it if it wanted to or got a good reason.”

t’s just seasonally, we start to talk about it. It’s going to be grilling season, and we all know we like steaks at the beginning of the year, hot dogs at the end. So hopefully, choice response pretty quick here after about the 1st of May. So if we do have some hard down days, I’m hoping that it won’t last much

Hogs Up a Second Day
Lean hog futures were up for a second day on short covering after a gap higher opening in the June contract.

Is this just a dead cat bounce or are there fundamentals to support the move?

Minor says, “Cut out, grinded its way higher to just over $100 again, kind of led by hams and bellies, but nothing sporadic, I thought, to really stand out to me across the board for the most part. So it seems like cash had a solid week of about a buck higher or so, so far, but there’s still
plenty of hogs around, Michelle, I think. When I look at this hog market, fundamentally, we got to be starting to get into some lower hog numbers here soon. This week and next week, still sitting at 2.4 to like 2.8 million number for the kill. And hopefully about the May 1st timeframe, we start to get a little bit lower numbers, prop that cut up a little bit higher. We’ve got the June back in a line with fundamentals, probably up front. We’ve taken most of the premium out, but we’re still a little bit optimistic, even going forward out in those future months, especially.”

Corn, Soybeans, Wheat up on Weather, Planting, China News and Fertilizer?

Tue, 21 Apr 2026 16:13:41 GMT

Grains are mostly higher early Tuesday, with cattle and hogs also recovering.

Soybeans Lead Gains Pulling up Corn
Soybeans are seeing early gains Tuesday with help from a rally in both bean oil and soybean meal and that is supporting corn.

Hillari Mason with Pro Farmer says, “Obviously, that’s going to support the bean complex overall. And I think it’s supporting corn too.”

Market Fades Planting Progress
Planting progress was at 11% nationally on corn which was 2% ahead of normal and for soybeans 12% of the crop has also been planted which is 7 points ahead of average.

Mason says that is because while some areas of the corn belt are ahead of normal like the Southeast, Iowa is well behind on corn seeding at 2% against a normal of 8%.

“There are some weather challenges throughout the country that are you know keeping progress at bay,” she remarks.

Mason is in Southwestern Indiana where it was dry and so some producers may be done planting this week as they push to get the crop in ahead of another round of rain.

“If you look at Kentucky, they’re planning progress is well ahead. As you go farther South, it’s the same situation, you know, that it’s drier down there and just a lot done.”

She also thinks there will be some replanting and in fact there is a lot of replant going on in Southern Indiana right now.

“They just kind of went in, I think, at the wrong time and with some heavy rains some of the crop didn’t come up well either.”

She says they escaped the cold temperatures over the weekend and the frost that nipped some areas of the corn and wheat belt.

Corn and Soybeans Into Recent Highs
Corn and soybeans are up to recent highs and running into chart resistance but can the market get through those levels?

Mason says, “Old crop corn in particular. It just seems like a bit of a laggard. It needs support from something, whether it be wheat or soybeans. I will say that Dec corn, though, is also kind pausing and we really need to get above that 14, 20 day moving average on the December contract. We’ve got strong support at the 10 day, it seems. And I don’t think the bottom is going to fall out of corn. It feels like maybe we’re kind of just kind of hanging sideways until we get another catalyst.”

Soybeans are also up into chart resistance but still trading sideways.

She says that market is caught between higher bean oil and lower meal on any given day with the back and forth on the war and crude oil which influences bean oil prices.

Old crop soybeans are still waiting for the outcome of the China meeting mid-May.

“The meeting with Xi Jinping in May is going to be, everyone’s got that in laser focus. And, you know, we had news this morning from, well, the South China Morning Post had released a news or headline stating that the U.S. had intercepted a Chinese ship that had a gift to Iran. Now, we don’t know what that gift is, but it probably is not gonna favor the U.S. So, hopefully that doesn’t crimp that meeting that’s that’s scheduled,” she shares.

Wheat Sees Profit Taking Then Rebounds on Low Crop Ratings
Wheat was lower early on profit taking after running into chart resistance at last week’s highs but also trading war headlines and the higher dollar and rains chances in the extended forecast.

However, winter wheat crop conditions were down 4% and the good to excellent rating is at 30% nationally so she believes that market will be well supported on breaks.

Fertilizer Price Concerns
Mason says the concerns regarding fertilizer prices are also growing as margins and working capital is tight, plus even supply is a problem the longer the war lingers.

“I do believe that there were more producers than what we would like to think that didn’t have their nitrogen supplies locked in before the Middle East situation transpired and so I do think that that’s probably pushing some soybean acres and I am even seeing some bean on bean acres in Southern Indiana and into Illinois,” she explains.

Fertilizer Crunch
She says with the war lingering there are many countries that are stockpiling fertilizers or stockpiling commodities in general, so she thinks supplies will remain tight.

“Luckily we produce a lot of anhydrous ammonia domestically but urea we import a lot of urea about 30% from Russia and we get about a fifth of our UAN from Russia. So we really have to walk a tightrope with them as we move forward,” she adds.

Sulfer Supplies are Also a Concern
Mason says sulfur supplies are also a concern as it is a byproduct of natural gas processing and oil refining.

“Obviously there are a lot of refiners and natural gas processing plants that are offline given this situation in the Middle East and 90% of the world’s supplies are a product of that. We were actually tight on sulfur supplies in 2025 just because sulfur is used as a battery material. So,
the demand was there and there was, there were no new supplies coming online.”

However, she says supplies are even tighter now.

“That’s really going to throw a wrench into phosphates, right? Your DAP, your MAP, production. and so it does concern me,” she adds.

Plus there are exports bans on in Russia and Turkey and China has a ban on sulfuric acid with India considering a ban.

“So you’ve got all of these countries that are saying, whoa, hold the phone. Let’s pause and keep our supplies in-house before we send them out to the world and put ourselves in a real pickle.”

Cattle Try to Recover After Monday Selloff
Cattle futures are higher early Tuesday after a sell off to start the week.

The market has been spooked by the possibility of the border reopening to Mexican cattle as USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins will be in Arizona on Friday. Plus, the talk of another Justice Department investigation of the meat packing industry, while not new, was also a bearish factor.

Mason thinks the pullback is just a technical correction.

“My gut tells me that once you reach record highs, a pullback is healthy but there’s probably a segment of traders out there that are really concerned about maybe a partial reopening of the Mexico U.S. border but we’re not going to be flooded with feeders right away just because Mexico has been building their infrastructure,” she says.

Weather Extremes Take Their Toll on the Winter Wheat Crop

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 13:02:29 GMT

While winter wheat is a crop that seems to have nine lives, the dramatic weather extremes are taking a toll on the crop.

Winter wheat may have already been damaged in January and February due to extreme cold and the lack of snow cover in many areas.

Throw on top of that freezing temperatures at the start of the week and now heat and continued dry conditions, which are stressing the crop.

Freeze Damage Early This Week
Freeze damage was noted in Texas up through Kansas with below freezing temperatures to start the week according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading and a farmer near Dodge City, Kansas, then followed by a huge warm up.

“Out here in Dodge City, Kansas, you know, over the weekend, I woke up Monday morning, I think it was 10 degrees out here. So not what you want to see the middle of March when that growing point starting to come above the surface out here. A lot of vegetation protecting that growing point, I think. But if you drive around these fields out here and you can see some of the damage to the vegetation from that freeze event, then you turn around and we’ve got 90 degree days here coming into the week. So weather is pretty dynamic and wild.”

Already Freeze Damage in January and February
And there was already possible freeze damage in January and February due to the lack of snow cover accordign to Drew Lerner, ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc.:

“And there is some concern that there’s damage done out there. And having a warm and dry spring season is the absolute worst thing to do for a possibly damaged wheat crop. You need it to rain. It’s got to rain a little bit more frequently than usual, and the temperatures need to be kept in a mild regime. Instead, we’re going to be seeing quite the opposite. It’s going to be quite warm at times.”

Drought Monitor Tells the Story
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 55% of U.S. winter wheat areas in some level of drought which is further stressing the crop according to Huck.

‘Right now the big problem out here in the west regarding weather is drought and will the rains come,” he says.

(USDA )

On Monay the state ratings showed Oklahoma with only 18% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 6% from the previous week and the lowest level since 2018.

In Texas only 15% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1%.

Lerner says the crop conditions are deteriorating further with the extreme weather. “The temperatures have been so warm that we have evaporated huge amounts of moisture from the soil, leaving that crop limping along.”

Forecast Continues the Pattern
And unfortunately the forecast looks to stay warm and dry for the next 8 to 14 days.

U.S. HRW wheat dryness is expected to intensify through at least next weekend as upper-level high pressure blocks energy and low humidities persist.

That will be accompanied by heat into the weekend and then next Tuesday through Thursday.

A large system likely moves across the central U.S. at some point March 31 - April 5, but it is unclear if it will move slowly with good rains for HRW wheat.

Cattle Recover on Higher Cash, Fade Plant Strike: Soybeans Hit New Highs with China Push

Fri, 06 Feb 2026 16:13:39 GMT

Cattle and hogs are higher early Friday. Soybeans are also up a third day with corn and wheat struggling.

Cattle Recover Fading Possible Plant Strike
Cattle futures were down sharply on Thursday and touched limit down on some contracts with fear of a workers strike and the JBS beef plant in Greeley, CO. Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market tanked as there were no buy orders in to stabilize the market. However, he says some of the crash was tied to profit taking after the market got overbought. Cattle rallied Monday through Wednesday into new highs for the move and were due for a correction. He thinks even if the 5,400 head beef plant saw a shutdown it would be short lived and there is enough open capacity in the packing industry right now to easily absorb the loss.

Higher Cash Pulls Futures Back Up
The big gains in the futures are also tied to higher cash trade and producers lifting their short hedges. Varilek says on Thursday afternoon packers tried to low ball bid at $238 which was passed and by the end of the day they bought cattle at $241 live. The bids are now up to $242 which implies higher cash when the dust settles.

Spring Rally Coming
Varilek says despite some temporary corrections in the futures market he is fully expecting the futures to have their normal spring rally. It will get an extra push this year from cattle supplies getting into the tightest numbers in the cycle.

Argentina Beef Imports to Rise
The U.S. and Argentina also announced a trade deal on Thursday that includes more beef imports. Argentina’s quota will rise from 20,000 MT to 100,000 MT. However, Varilek says this is still a small amount and won’t have much impact on supplies or market prices. He says the bigger concern and impact comes from Brazilian imports.

Heifer Retention and Beef on Dairy
Varilek says longer term he is expecting the cattle herd to start a slow rebuild. While inventory was down .4% and beef cow numbers were down 1% in the USDA report. There was a hint of heifer retention starting to show up and so he is watching that for signs of expansion and bigger beef supplies.

Meanwhile, the number of milk cows was up 2% year over year and speaks to the push for more beef on dairy. Producers have been retaining more cows because they can sex the semen and create another revenue stream by using even cows they would normally cull to carry those valuable calves. Wet calves are selling for upwards of $1,500 and there are many dairy operations that can sex the semen to create more bull calves that they feed out themselves to sell.

Hogs Rebound With Cattle
Lean hogs futures were down yesterday with cattle and saw some profit taking after new contract highs were scored on Wednesday. The market continues to be bought by the funds on breaks and the summer months are being supported by disease and the lack of isowean pigs available. Plus, those isowean prices have jumped well over $100. The summer month futures getting above $110 chart resistance was clearly a signal to the funds to keep buying.

Soybeans Make New Highs For the Move
Soybean futures made new highs for the move again Friday morning with continued fund buying. The market is still trying to price in the additional 294 million bu. of soybeans that China could possibly buy. However, Varilek is skeptical it will happen so he is recommending producers use the rally to make some sales.

Corn Fails at Resistance
Even with the big rally in soybeans this week of over 50-cents the corn market has barely budged and hit chart resistance in the March around the $4.25 area and failed. Varilek says farmers are also selling at those levels trying to chew through this massive 2.2 billion bu. plus carryover. So, he is not optimistic about corn taking out overhead chart areas to produce a more sustained rally.

Grains Melt With Commodity Wide Selloff: What Triggered it and Will it Continue?

Fri, 30 Jan 2026 21:41:52 GMT

Grain and livestock futures melted down on Friday on risk off commodity wide selling.

Broadbased Commodity Wide Selling Friday
Friday and much of the week was dominated by money flow and spillover from outside markets like the metals, the energies, and the dollar. That’s according to Allison Thompson with The Money Farm. She says a huge correction in markets like the precious metals, the dollar and the energy sector, even the stock market came as a result of President Trump announcing his pick for the next FOMC Chair as Kevin Warsh, who is seen as hawkish and is less likely to lower interest rates. However, she says there were various macro market and geopolitical moves that created odd money flow in and out of commodities and outside markets. The end result was a reallocation of portfolios.

Will the Asset Shuffling Continue in Commodities?
Will the reallocation by money managers continue in a new month and do grain markets eventually see fund’s buying that could trigger a larger rally? Thompson says that is possible as funds have a routine pecking order. “They general buy metals, then energies, then grains.” With a 4-year low this week in the dollar there was some buying in the grain markets early in the week and open interest increased in wheat, corn and soybeans which means there was new money coming into the complex. However, some of that money just as easily flowed back out of the grains towards the end of the week after chart failures.

Corn and Soybeans Hit Chart Resistance
Along with outside market spillover the corn and soybeans markets also saw further profit taking after running up into chart resistance on Thursday and failing. March corn was stopped out around the 100-day moving average of $4.32 and March soybeans hit the 50-day moving average of $10.82. These are the top ends of the trading ranges corn and soybeans have both been trading in says Thompson.

Wheat Closes Higher for a Second Week
Wheat futures were higher for a second week in all three classes even though they have tested the top end of their trading ranges and failed on Friday. Is there a technical breakout brewing? Thompson says its possible with the funds short over 125,000 contracts in the three exchanges combined. The market will just need to close over this week’s highs.

Short Covering or Weather Premium?
While there has undoubtedly been fund short covering in the wheat market this week, Thompson also attributes the rally to the market adding weather premium. She says the bitterly cold temperatures in the U.S. and another cold blast on the way deserves some attention. However, there are also -20 degree temperatures forecast in Ukraine with limited snow cover for the crop and Australia has been dry and now is seeing temperatures in the 115-122 degree range which will trim crop yields.

Cattle Consolidate Despite Higher Cash
Cattle futures had a roller coaster ride on Friday trading both sides of steady during the session. The markets were initially sucked into the commodity wide selloff but then ran higher after cash trade developed at higher money. Many contracts make new highs for the move before selling off into the close. While the market may have been positioning ahead of the semi-annual cattle inventory report, this action is a bit concerning to Thompson.

A light cash trade was reported before the close. Southern live deals are marked at $238 to $240, $3 to $5 higher than last week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed business has been reported sold at $375 to $378, $6 to $9 higher than last week’s weighted averages.

Meanwhile the inventory report was bullish with the lowest cattle herd since 1951. All cattle and calves and all cows/heifer at 100% of a year ago. Beef cows 99%, beef replacements 101%, steers at 99%, bulls and calves 100%.

Grains Rally Wednesday: What was the Catalyst and Do Funds Keep Buying?

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 22:06:50 GMT

Grain markets ended higher on Wednesday as well as cattle with only hogs lower on the day.

Grain Markets Surge on Money Flow
Grains markets ended higher across the complex, driven mostly by money flow according to Dave Chatterton with Strategic Farm Marketing. He says the ICE U.S. Dollar Index earlier this week dropped to a four-year low when President Trump said he was comfortable with the depreciation of the U.S. dollar because it is good for U.S. businesses. That attracted some fund and speculative buying to the grain markets he says. “That’s a very big change from the previous policy, but it seemed to catch the attention of the trade here and we saw that translated into a number of commodities on Wednesday, not just the grain complex, but notable fund buying in the grains with, you know, very little underlying change in the fundamentals. So, it’s nice to see that money flow pick up.”

Bessent, speaking in an interview with CNBC Wednesday, said “the U.S. always has a strong dollar policy.” He also said the U.S. was “absolutely not” intervening in the Japanese currency market, rejecting speculation that had been building since Friday. He says comments by U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying the Trump administration supports a stronger U.S. currency helped provide some stabilization.

Will the Funds Continue to Buy?
The grains saw the start of a chart breakout with March soybean futures closing above the 200-day moving average and March corn ended above the 100-day moving average. So will this attract an additional fund buying? Chatterton says, “The is the million dollar question.”

FOMC Meeting Concludes With No Rate Change
The FOMC meeting concluded on Wednesday with no change in interest rates. Chatterton says while that was expected the market was watching for any sign of change in Fed Chairman Powell’s stance. Powell says inflation remains somewhat elevated but the overall tone seems to suggest a longer pause verses easing rates.

Did Biofuels News Help Push the Grain Markets?
President Trump also threw his support behind year-round E15 while speaking in Iowa on Tuesday and said he had directed Senate Majority Leader John Thune and House Speaker Mike Johnson to come up with compromise legislation and get the bill passed in Congress so he could immediately sign it. While being able to sell E15 across the U.S. during the summer months would be helpful, Chatterton says this is not a mandate, it is voluntary. “A mandatory E15 push might be worth 2.5 billion bu., a less voluntary push probably something more in the 200 to 350 million bu.-per-year range,” he explains.

Meanwhile, hope of more certainty for biofuels policy is supportive for soybeans and bean oil according to Chatterton. The Office of Management and Budget has finalized the 45Z proposal and opened it for comment. The details could be released any day now. Plus, EPA has finished the comment period on the Renewable Volume Obligations and should provide blending volumes by late February to early March.

Weather Concerns?
Hot and dry conditions continue in areas of Central and Southern Argentina and far Southern Brazil. So is the corn or soybean market adding any risk premium as a result? Chatterton says, “There’s not much weather premium in this market because it’s being outweighed by the strength of the crop in the rest of Brazil.” While there have been some private forecasts lowering the Argentina crops those have been more than offset by the Brazilian production estimates which continue to rise. The latest from Safras y Mercado put the Brazil soybean crop at a record 183.8 MMT.

Meanwhile, another Arctic blast is predicted for winter wheat areas in the U.S. lending to some concerns about winter kill in areas that did not receive snow cover. Chatterton says the areas are small and so it won’t have much of a market impact and added that its difficult to assess damage to the crop until it breaks dormancy. So, he is chalking up the rally in wheat on Wednesday to fund short covering and U.S. wheat prices are running at a $130 per ton premium to the rest of the world which will make the U.S. no longer competitive.

Cattle Rebound Ahead of Report, Cash News
Live cattle futures saw some early pressure and profit taking but still have been unable to take out the January highs on the charts basis April. However, the March feeder cattle broke above resistance and made new highs for the move. Chatterton says the market is positioning ahead of the USDA Cattle Inventory report and this week’s cash trade. Cash news has been light and may wait until after the report but with higher bids this week there is hope for higher cash sales. The cold weather has also been supportive for the market as it is lowering performance and trimming the record heavy carcass weights. Still, he thinks the live cattle market will need a bullish report that does not indicate herd rebuilding to break out of the current trading range.

Lean Hogs See Profit Taking
Lean hog futures set back on profit taking after hitting new contract highs in the April and many other months on Tuesday. He says the funds have been long in the hog market and likely needed to take a break from buying. The cash trade has been advancing though so the rally may be able to resume.

Grain Markets Rally on Money Flow: Can They Stage a Chart Breakout?

Wed, 28 Jan 2026 16:10:16 GMT

Grains started sharply higher on Wednesday with cattle and hogs mostly lower.

Soybeans Add South America Weather Premium
Soybeans were higher on Wednesday morning with double digit gains. Jamie Gieseke with Paradigm Futures says soybeans were getting a push from South American weather. Hot dry conditions have persisted in Argentina but the emerging story is FOB values in Brazil are rising as there are reports of problems moving soybeans out of the ports. The higher values are lifting U.S. prices.

Biofuels Hopes
The soybeans are also getting help from the soybean oil market which is building in optimism regarding biofuels policy according to Gieseke. The EPA has closed the comment period for the RVOs and so those blending mandates should be released late February to early March. The Office of Management and Budget has also completed its proposal on the 45Z tax credit which will now go through a 60 day comment period. However, biofuels officials say they expect those rules could be finalized by the end of March. Gieseke says this optimism has given the soybean oil market new life and it is staging a chart breakout.

Soybeans Breaking Out Technically?
Soybeans are finally above the 200-day moving average on the March contract and a close above this level could bring in some fund buying. Some of the deferred contracts are also above the $11 mark.

Corn Follows Wheat, Gets E15 Boost?
Corn futures are seeing spillover support from soybeans and more importantly wheat according to Gieseke. However, President Trump’s speech in Iowa Tuesday included comments about his support for year-round E15 and he says leaders in the Senate and House are close to getting a bill ready to be voted on. When that happens Trump said he will sign it immediately.

Corn Seeing Strong Export Demand, Is China Buying?
Corn continues to see record export demand and Gieseke says the U.S. has seen it’s share of the global corn export market expand to over 50% which goes along with the record pace being set. China has also been buying European wheat due to problems with the quality of their corn which has aflatoxins. So, could this push China into the U.S. corn market? There have been several flash sales to unknown destinations the past few weeks and he thinks its possible if China isn’t buying U.S. corn they may need to down the road.

Wheat Adds Weather Premium
Winter wheat futures were also rallying in an attempt to add weather premium. Another Arctic blast is expected to hit winter wheat growing areas further increasing concerns about winter kill in that crop. Funds are a combined short in that market (futures only) of over 126,000 contracts and so if the market continues to move through chart resistance areas it could spark a larger short covering rally. Currently, he sees $5.40 as a level that will be difficult to take out in the hard red winter wheat futures.

FOMC Monetary Policy Impacting Commodity Sector
Gieseke says the Federal Reserve announced in October they would be pausing quantitative tightening and instead would be purchasing treasuries as part of quantitative easing. He says since that time the CRB Index, which tracks commodities, has been steadily rising. He says monetary policy change has been driving money into commodities like precious metals, with traders also going short on the U.S. dollar index which has hit a four year low. This could be driving some money flow into the grain markets and if that continues it could finally help the grain markets break out of their trading ranges and start a larger rally.

Cattle Pause Ahead of Report
Cattle futures were starting out lower for a second day with the market consolidating under chart resistance hit earlier this week. The market is waiting for cash direction and the USDA Semi-Annual Cattle Inventory Report on Friday.

Soybeans Pop on 45Z Hopes: Corn, Wheat and Cattle Consolidate Tuesday

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 16:59:05 GMT

Soybeans and bean oil were higher on Tuesday morning with wheat and corn weak. Cattle saw some early pressure with hogs rebounding.

Soybeans and Bean Oil Rally
Soybeans and bean oil were slightly higher on Tuesday morning with hopes President Trump may make an announcement or at least talk positive about the 45Z program according to Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity. News reports on Monday indicated the Office of Management and Budget had finalized the 45Z rules and so an announcement is at least close.

South American Crop Watch
The soybean market is also watching the South American weather forecasts and crop estimates. Schultz says there has been some lingering hot dry conditions in Argentina but only Southern Brazil is in jeaopardy of seeing any production problems due to the lack of moisture. Overall, he thinks the weather would need to stay hot and dry in Argentina for another two to three weeks to see a bigger than 2 MMT cut to Argentina production.

Dr. Michael Cordonnier lowered his Argentina soybean estimate by 2 MMT to 48 MMT and on corn lowered his projection by 2 MMT to 54 MMT. For Brazil he raised soybean production 1 MMT to 179 MMT and left his corn estimate unchanged at 137 MMT. Meanwhile, AgRural raised Brazil’s soybean crop by 600,000 MT to 181 MMT and the corn crop the same amount to 136.6 MMT.

China Buying Brazil Soybeans
News reports indicate China is in the market buying cheaper Brazilian soybeans and has booked 25 cargoes for March/ April delivery. Schultz says that makes sense with the record crop coming to market from Brazil and with China reaching its 12 MMT U.S. purchase commitment. He thinks China is likely to be out of the U.S. soybean market now until at least fall when they start buying for their next 25 MMT purchase agreement.

Soybean Technical Action is Poor
On Monday soybeans made three week highs before hitting chart resistance and reversing to score an outside day lower. Schultz says this was poor technical action and March soybeans cannot take out or at least close above the 200-day moving average for any sustained period. He thinks it would take some type of weather problem in South America to change that.

Corn and Wheat Remove Weather Premium
Despite a flash sale of 4.33 million bu. of corn to unknown destinations on Tuesday morning the corn market was lower. The wheat market was also serving as an anchor for corn similar to Monday’s action. Plus, both markets hit chart resistance and failed which triggered some speculative profit taking. The wheat market was also removing weather premium as many of the winter wheat areas that received bitterly cold temperatures also saw insulating snow. For the corn market the weather slowed marketing of grain and ethanol plants also slowed production and instead sold natural gas on the market. That situation was also normalizing on Tuesday and so the markets had a weaker underdone.

Cattle Consolidate Awaiting Cash
Cattle futures were mostly lower on Tuesday morning as the market was consolidating after hitting technical resistance areas on the charts and failing. Schultz says the futures will need to see higher cash trade again this week to make it through those chart areas. He thinks beef demand has been compromised with Winter Storm Fern closing restaurants. However, the cold weather is likely to have stressed cattle and performance which will trim carcass weights.

Lean Hog Futures Resilient
Lean hogs opened lower on Tuesday but quickly found their footing. Schultz says the resilience of the market has been impressive. He thinks its tied to solid demand but also disease problems that will likely mean a marketing hole in the summer time period. However, even the April contract hit new contract highs on Monday.

Record Breaking Winter Storm Fern Slams Farmers and Ranchers in 28 States

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 02:51:12 GMT

Winter Storm Fern will go down in the record books with a large swath of the U.S. and farm country blanketed with a foot or more of snow, ice and record-breaking cold.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag senior science fellow, says: “We had 28 states under at least an ice storm warning or a winter storm warning. And the thing started in New Mexico and finished in Maine and along the way dumped a tremendous amount of snow. A massive ice storm that stretched from what Dallas to Memphis to Nashville.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Hundreds of Thousands Without Power

That heavy ice caused hundreds of thousands of power outages that will last for days or even weeks in some areas. Early estimates on Monday morning by PowerOutage.com put total power outages at over 782,000 customers, mainly across the Southeast U.S. The hardest hit states included Tennessee at just under 250,000 and Mississippi and Maine at nearly 150,000. By Monday evening total power outages were still at more than 550,000.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Record Low Temperatures

Farmers and ranchers worked over the weekend to protect livestock from this historic winter blast. Hundreds of locations also surpassed unofficial daily records for low temperatures. That combined with dangerous wind chills, stressed livestock and hurt performance and health.

Snodgrass says, “I mean, 30 to 40 degrees colder than normal. I mean, I saw wind chills in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state. wind chills in Wisconsin down to minus 55 over the weekend, and that’s a pretty brutal setup for humans and livestock alike.”

Livestock Producers Work Overtime to Protect Herds

Northwest Louisiana cattle producer Mitch Marsalis worked over the weekend to keep his beef cattle warm with extra grain and feed. “We’re trying to get these calves back to pasture and get everything set up to get them fed, get them some warmth and some food in their bodies to keep them warm during this weather.”

However, the Claiborne Parish rancher told Josh Meeks at This Week in Louisiana Agriculture the 25-degree temperatures are harder on ranchers than livestock. “They’re cold right now, but they’re not as cold as we are. They’re acclimated to this weather a little bit better than we are. You know, they’re not sitting in the house, 70 degrees and then walk outside and get that shock about them and all.”

10 Points to Consider When Managing Cattle Through Cold Stress

Tips to Prevent Hypothermia in Calves

Grain Movement and Processing Also Slowed

Fern has also slowed grain movement from trucks to barges. Plus, ethanol and soybean processing plants have slowed production to conserve margins with surging natural gas prices.

Winter Wheat Winter Kill Concerns

Plus, winter kill is possible in winter wheat in areas like Kansas, says Snodgrass, where the deep freeze was preceded by above average temperatures. “I think the only saving grace is there’s now a little skiff of snow and in eastern Kansas even more than that sitting on top of the ground and on top of the wheat as the Arctic air spills all the way down to the Rio Grande. So I think it’s going to be one of those things where like well in April we will see if there was any damage or any problems.”

How Long Will Polar Vortex Last?

Snodgrass says the bad news is this polar vortex could stick around for a while. “We’ve displaced the polar vortex. It’s now sitting over like the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay. We’ve pinched off warm air over the Arctic, which means we’re displacing it right down the heart of North America. And we’re going to continue to deal with this to finish this month and I think even start February.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Analog Year in 2014

And so Snodgrass thinks this polar vortex could be similar to analog year of 2014 where the polar vortex was prolonged through February.

Cattle Hit Fresh Highs on Bullish COF but Can it Continue? Grains Also Rally Monday

Mon, 22 Dec 2025 16:04:59 GMT

Grain and livestock futures are higher early Monday.

Cattle Make Fresh Highs on Bullish COF
Live and feeder cattle futures made new highs for the move Monday morning after a strong close Friday and higher weekly closes. However, the big catalyst is the bullish USDA Cattle on Feed Report data according to Rich Nelson of Allendale, Inc.

Cattle on feed was 2% below December 1, 2024. Placements in feedlots during November totaled 1.60 million head, 11% below 2024. Placements were the lowest for November since the series began in 1996. Marketings of fed cattle during November totaled 1.52 million head, 12% below 2024. Marketings were the second lowest for November since the series began in 1996.

Nelson says the Cattle on Feed placements numbers at 88.8% was extremely bullihs, “We’ve got eight months in a row now of lower than last year placements. They’ve ran about 7 % below last year’s level. So the period from now through early summer will be a little tighter supplies as far as from a feedlot perspective.”

Nelson says the on feed number at 2.2% below a year ago is also a reminder of how historically tight cattle inventory is but with a caveat. “This does tighten our supply argument here quite a bit here. One thing which we will point out, though, as we’ll watch very carefully, is some of this bullish news in recent weeks and months has been kind of offset by the packer-led declines and slaughter numbers. We’ll have to watch very carefully how well they react to this in these coming where the feed lot itself tightens up, and we’ll see if they’re still going to be trying to cut back on numbers.

Cash Cattle Trade Mixed
Cash cattle trade picked up at the end of the week. Cash in the South was at $228 live, down $2 from the previous week under very light volume. A very light dressed trade was reported in the North Friday at mostly $354 to $355, steady to $1 higher than last week’s weighted average, but $3 to $4 lower than most of the volume which was at $358, up $4 from the previous week’s business in Nebraska. Live cash sales at $228 were steady to $2 lower than the previous week in the North.

Boxed Beef Strengthens
The wholesale beef saw impressive gains Friday as choice rose $4.35 to $361.63 while select climbed $2.05 to $346.02. Nelson says cutouts were also higher for the week.

Can Cattle Futures Continue to Rally?
Cattle futures made new highs for the move but can the futures continue to move higher and fill the chart gap areas? Nelson says that may be in the cards. “We can probably fill the first gap directly ahead here for the fat cattle, roughly about $1.50 to $2 to $2.50 higher from here. For the feeders, we can suggest that we’ll probably fill this large gap we’re into right now, which still roughly about another six dollars on higher pricing.”

However, he’s not sure the market can retest the record highs from October. “I do think that the news flow from the prior weeks and months of higher imports could offset the decline in U.S. beef production set for 2026. So we can appreciate a little bit here. We cannot in our viewpoint get to those prior highs in the short term here.”

Lean Hogs Higher, Awaits Hogs and Pigs Report
Lean hog futures were also higher despite lower weekly closes. The market is getting spillover from higher cattle futures and higher cutouts, which were up $2.23 for the week. Nelson says the Lean Hog Index is also holding at $83.73, down just 15 cents coming into the session and indicates the cash market has likely bottomed.

The market is gearing up for USDA’s Quarterly Hogs and Pigs Report on Tuesday afternoon. The average trade guess for all hogs and pigs is 99%, with kept for breeding and market also around 99%. The key will be if the disease problems that are starting to flare up again are confirmed in the report.

Grains Higher on Short Covering
Grain markets were all higher Monday morning on short covering and technical buying. Soybeans were oversold after 27 cent losses last week and a correction of $1.20 off the highs Nov. 18. Flash sales also confirmed China was in for another 12.1 million bu. of soybeans for this marketing year and 2.4 million bu. for 2026-27. He says China has now purchased at least half of their commitments.

Nelson says corn and wheat futures were also getting some support from the delayed export sales report. It showed corn exports at 58.2 million bu. and total sales at 1.8 billion bu. up 30% from a year ago. Wheat exports were at 14 million bu. and now total 710 million bu. up 23% verses last year.

Geopolitical premium was only a slight factor in the rally in the grains as Russia attacked grain facilities in Ukraine ports again over the weekend, amid ongoing peace talks between the U.S., Ukraine and the EU.

La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 15:35:19 GMT

La Niña might have been the only hope for a production problem in South America to trim their record soybean crop outlook. However, Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist and senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag, told farmers at the South Dakota Soybean Ag Outlook meeting in Sioux Falls, La Niña is starting to weaken — and along with it, the possibility of production problems in South America.

“I’m worried about La Niña already running its course. What I mean by that is normally La Niña’s build through December, peaks around the holidays and then wanes in February. This one’s already starting to back off,” Snodgrass explains.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also issued their outlook for La Niña this week, which includes the weather pattern persisting for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026. That does not mean much for U.S. weather, but it could limit precipitation during South America’s growing season. However, it would fade in South America after the most critical part of the soybean reproductive phase, so if there is an impact in Brazil it would likely be to the second crop corn.

In a La Niña pattern , stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an up-welling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts note.

As such, Snodgrass says he’s cautious about the South American forecast during their critical soybean production phase in January and February.

“Normally if you’re saying, what’s La Niña do, it means a wet Brazil and dry Argentina. El Nino flips it around. I don’t know where we’re going to be because we’re transitioning toward neutral conditions quickly, which means we’re going to have to watch other sub-seasonal factors. If the markets are going to follow weather, they’re going to be on a two -week schedule,” according to Snodgrass.

It’s Raining in Brazil

In the past two weeks, Brazil has been getting needed rains in main production areas, so dryness is no longer a concern. While its early, Snodgrass doesn’t see many production problems and neither do market analysts.

“I look at NDVI values,” he says. “They don’t look off. They’re closer to average.”

Brian Grete, grain and livestock analyst with Commstock Investments, says Brazil has seen thunderstorms over a wide area in the past 10 to 20 days.

“Some of the drier areas have received rains. The rains have come through central Brazil, northeastern Brazil and east-central Brazil, but the Southern areas have turned dry,” he adds.

There’s more rain in Brazil’s forecast in the next 14 days as several cool fronts pass, with 100% to 200% of normal rainfall predicted for all but Rio Grade do Sul in the South, which accounts for nearly 15% of Brazil’s soybean production. Grete says.

“We’ll have to watch that Southern area of Brazil to see if it continues to remain dry, which the forecast suggests through the end of this month,” he adds.

Meanwhile, Argentina is expected to get 50% of normal rainfall the next 14 days, but there are no real concerns there either.

(NASA)

Conab Adjusts Brazil Crop Slightly

On Thursday, CONAB left Brazil corn production nearly unchanged at 138.879 MMT, which is below expectations of 140.96 MMT. The agency cut soybean production from last month by about 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 MMT, mainly due to slightly lower acreage. That was below the expected 179.2 MMT. However, this still a record crop of more than 6.5 billion bushels. CONAB cited some replanting last month due to irregular rainfall, but rains have normalized in most areas of Brazil, and with La Niña starting to fade they may be on pace to hit that record soybean estimate.

Rosario Grain Exchange Leaves Argentina Crop Unchanged

The Rosario Grain Exchange left their corn production estimate at 61 MMT with 57% of the crop planted. The exchange also left soybean production unchanged at 47 MMT and reported 64% of the country had the crop seeded.

Meteorologists forecast the current weak La Niña could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, notes crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. That hasn’t yet materialized, he adds, and crops are doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent.

Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he says. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.

How Current Weather Trends Are Shaping Global Grain Production

Tue, 21 Oct 2025 20:36:51 GMT

Kevin Marcus of Marcus Weather Consulting gives the areas to watch as harvest goes into the home stretch in the northern hemisphere and the growing season is shaping up in the southern hemisphere.

Looking at the U.S., South American and Chinese weather patterns, here are his takeaways on the impact and outlook of weather:

U.S. harvest season is a mirror of 2024 in many ways.

Marcus says for many in the Midwest, September and October are echoing patterns this time last year being warmer and dryer than average.

He notes two earlier weather patterns in the year are bringing attention to their impact on yields.

In the eastern corn belt, the prolonged heat may have dinged yields.

“We had lots of warm night sin July and August,” he says. “For some, it was the highest numbers since 2010 and 2011.”

When nighttime temperatures remain elevated, the respiration steals from grain development resulting in shallower kernels.
In the western corn belt, the focus is on the favorable conditions for disease—including the expansion of southern rust.

“We’re seeing southern rust stealing 40 to 50 bu/acre in fields that were left untreated,” Marcus says. “Iowa was the epicenter of the problem, and if just 10% of the fields weren’t sprayed properly at a 50 bu loss, that’s 5 bu. off the state yield. And 1 bu. off the national yield.”

You can hear more about his weather analysis and the effect on yield estimates here:

La Nina is a factor.

Marcus is watching the development of La Nina, warmer waters in the eastern Indian ocean and systems and patterns developing in southeast Asia. He says it all adds up to polar jet getting invigorated.

As such, he sees “more of a slug” for the finishing weeks of corn harvest across the Midwest.

And this winter, especially compared to last year, he sees wet heavy snow across the northern plains starting in November.

Questionable start for the southern hemisphere.

As Brazil and Argentina’s growing seasons get kicked off, there’s cooler and less wet weather.

“This isn’t typical. It usually rains every other day. Now it’s only raining once a week. And temperatures are popping above 100 degree. Young crops are being stressed early,” Marcus says.

Looking ahead, he notes there aren’t any “red flags” for the weather dramatically effecting yields, but there is definitely risk in the forecast.

China’s domestic production is a question mark.

Marcus says a developing story to watch are yields for the Chinese corn crop.

“We just came through seven weeks of exceptional rain in the north China plains,” he says. “When corn can’t be harvested, and you’re getting rains every other day for seven weeks, you have an idea of what that quality will look like.”

When a comparable weather pattern occurred in 2022, Marcus points to private estimates stating a loss of 30 million metric tons.

The Key to Reversing Low River Levels and Shoring Up Critical Infrastructure

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:14:20 GMT

Mississippi River levels are low this fall season—for the third year in a row.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” says Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics. “October is a critical month for barge transportation in the Mississippi River Basin. This is especially the case in the agricultural sector as crops are harvested in the Midwest and transported mainly by barge to New Orleans.”

He says this year’s river levels mimic 2024 conditions. Barge restrictions were put in place in September, and currently, the low-water restrictions for southbound vessels on the Lower Mississippi River from the U.S. Coast Guard include:

• Cairo, Ill., to Lake Providence, La., MM 869-483: Drafts no greater than 10'6" and barges no more than six wide.

• Lake Providence, La., to the Gulf of Mexico, MM 483-303: Drafts no greater than 11' and barges no more than six wide.

“August was a very dry month in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt and in the Delta, and in mid- to late August, we began to see that response in the river system overall. That was the time frame we began to watch things very closely,” Davis says. “Based on September being very dry, it looked like the overall decline in river levels was going to continue and we’re going to get into a bit more of a restrictive environment, which would certainly impact logistics on the river system.”

The weather patterns of the past seven weeks accelerated river level issues.

“The combination of recent warmth and long-term dryness has led to this decline in river levels, and if we look at the river levels now compared with the last 10 years, we’re at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen,” Davis adds.

Ohio River at Cairo, Ill. Oct 1, 2025

(USGS)

Mississippi River at Dubuque, Iowa on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Davis says there’s not much recharge for the river in the forecast — and the greatest source for getting levels back up is unfortunately a tropical system, such as a hurricane.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Mississippi River at New Orleans on Oct. 1

(USGS)

“That’s what helped last year—the storms that developed in October,” he says.

Looking at the forecast, the next seven to 10 days doesn’t show much promise for precipitation along the Mississippi River Valley or the Ohio River Valley, which notably feeds the lower Mississippi. However, the end of October could turn wetter, which might slow the finish of harvest but could recharge the vital artery in our inland waterways.

Cotton Bolls Are Opening, Harvest Aids On Deck

Thu, 25 Sep 2025 17:01:47 GMT

Temperatures in the 80s and 90s are welcomed this week across West Texas and the Texas Panhandle, as growers seek the “open fall” that helps finish the cotton crop. Hot temperatures and a few storms are forecast in central Texas. Oklahoma and Kansas are also enjoying favorable growing conditions.

The forecast for the Mid-South is similar, with the Memphis and Little Rock areas projected to see clearing skies after several days of rain. A few showers are expected to yield to sunny skies in the Jackson, Miss., and Delta regions further south.

Of course, forecasts can change, but hopefully not enough to slow crop maturity. On Sept. 14, USDA reported bolls opening nationwide were at 50%. That increased to 60% this past Monday, Sept. 21. Key cotton state boll openings included:

70% in Alabama
79% in Arkansas
76% in Georgia
22% in Kansas
89% in Louisiana
75% in Mississippi
71% in Missouri
57% in Oklahoma
77% in Tennessee
53% in Texas

Tennessee cotton started slowly due to the wet spring. “We had good potential after the rain, but the faucet cut off in the summer,” says Tyson Raper, University of Tennessee Extension cotton specialist in Jackson, noting the state’s cotton acres are down. “The early cotton looks good, but the later stuff is rough due to drought. About 80% of the early bolls are open. The later cotton bolls are approaching 60%. We’re barely into harvest. Yields should approach 900 pounds per acre.”

Drip-irrigated field in Hockley County, Texas, should see defoliation in early October.

(Kerry Siders)

The recent rain is forcing a more aggressive approach to defoliation. “The concern now is for regrowth,” Raper says. “Much residual fertilizer wasn’t taken up by plants in the summer dry conditions. It’s now being absorbed after the rain. We may need higher rates of Folex. As we see more regrowth, we’ll likely need a second shot.”

In the South Plains, Kerry Siders, Texas A&M AgriLife Extension IPM agent, Cochran, Hockley and Lamb counties, says it will likely be Oct. 20 before cotton strippers hit the fields. “Harvest aids will go out in early October on irrigated fields,” he says. “If they’re applied on Oct. 3, it will take 10 to 14 days before fields are ready to strip. Some dryland fields that receive a shot of paraquat could see harvest start earlier.”

The forecast for the South Plains-Panhandle region calls for temperatures in the high 70s and low 80s for the next few weeks. “We don’t see much of a forecast for lower temperatures,” Siders says, adding application of a boll opener, such as Ethephon, should help get plants ready for harvest.

“Remember, the Ethephon label requires the product come in contact with the boll for it to open,” he stresses. “Just getting it sprayed on top of the plant isn’t enough. Coverage is the key. We recommend a quart of Ethephon mixed with 10 to 15 gallons of water per acre.”

He projects strong yields if the weather continues to cooperate. “We’re seeing good cotton,” he says. “It’s still near the range of 9 nodes above cracked bolls NACB. At that rate, plants need to open another 4 to 5 nodes on their own. Irrigated fields could yield in the 3.5-bale range,” he says. “Some dryland fields could hit 200 pounds per acre.”

In central Texas, Tyler Mays, AgriLife Extension IPM Agent, also recommends a solid defoliation program: “We’re in the middle of harvest, but some late-planted fields are getting ready for defoliation. With the cooler weather, Folex or Finish 6 are good replacements for Ethephon.”

Southern Texas Blacklands yields are above average, he says, with dryland yields ranging from “2 bales per acre to as high as 4 bales. Our average yield is 1 to 1.5 bales.”

Jostling with Jassid

As Georgia growers begin harvest, the “catastrophic” jassid leafhopper is on their radars, says Taylor Sills, Georgia Cotton Commission executive director in Perry. “Georgia is ground zero for the new insect threat. Some acres have been severely affected by it,” he says.

“Bidrin has been the pesticide of choice for jassid control, but Carbine is also being used. As an industry, we have a lot to learn about this insect.”

Meanwhile, he says only a small percentage of Georgia cotton has been harvested. Maturity varies, as some acres were planted after June 1. “In far northern Georgia, growers are hoping for a late fall and winter,” Sills says. “Overall, we could have an above-average crop, but there’s a long way to go.”

Ben McKnight, AgriLife Extension cotton specialist in College Station, says no jassid leafhopper damage has been reported in Texas. However, large retailers are being monitored by the Texas Department of Agriculture to determine if imported ornamental plants that were the source of jassid are contaminated with the insect.

McKnight says harvest in the Upper Gulf Coast “is progressing nicely. Yields are slightly above average.”

Grains Try to Hold Gains on Technical Buying, Exports: Is China Really Buying Soybeans?

Fri, 05 Sep 2025 15:09:21 GMT

Grains started higher on Friday morning and are trying to hold gains. Cattle are seeing pressure, with hogs strong.

Corn Sees Technical Strength

Randy Martinson, Martinson Ag, says corn is seeing follow through technical buying after holding support at the 50-day moving average on the December contract.

Corn is working on its third higher weekly close, which continues to help confirm the fall low set on August 12.

New Crop Corn Exports Strong

New crop corn exports were strong at 83.3 million bu. and even with net cancellations of 11.1 million bu. for old crop the total sales for the old crop marketing year stand at 2.69 billion bu. up 27% from last year.

Ethanol production was down slightly last week but corn got a demand boost from news that California had passed legislation on E15 sales, the last state to join the party.

Soybeans Struggle to Hold Early Gains

Soybeans started out higher on Friday morning trying to extend gains after holding key support on the November at the 200-day moving average.

However, that market continues to struggle with the lack of new crop China export business.

Weekly exports showed net cancellations of .9 million bu. old crop but were strong at 30.1 million bu. new crop. The problem is new crop exports are only totaling 295. 6 million bu. and are down 32% from a year ago.

The bigger issue is China has still not bought any new crop soybeans from the U.S.

Is China Buying as Unknown Destinations?

Flash sales totaling 12 million bu. of new crop soybeans were announced to unknown destinations Friday morning.

That brings the total new crop sales to unknown to 132.6 million bu.

So, could China be buying under unknown destinations?

Martinson says it is possible some of that total could be China business and they have been known in the past to buy soybeans under the radar to keep prices down.

“Last year at this time China had 250 million bu. of soybeans on the books so this is their prime window for purchases.”

Wheat Still Trying to Bottom

Wheat futures made new contract lows in all three classes on Thursday and are trying to bounce on Friday morning on technical buying and end of week short covering.

Wheat is also getting some help from a slightly higher corn market but the inability of the market to bottom has been frustrating says Martinson.

Weekly export sales were disappointing at only 11.5 million bu. but new crop sales so far still total 456 million bu. which is up 22% from last year.

So if demand isn’t the problem with the wheat market what is?

Martinson says many Northern Hemisphere countries are harvesting and finding bigger than expected crops and so the added bushels from major exporters is not helping the market.

Plus, Matif wheat is hitting new contract lows.

Cattle Working on a Lower Weekly Close

Live and feeder cattle futures are lower to start Friday seeing continued profit taking.

However, lower cash trade in Northern feeding areas at mostly $242, down $3, was also contributing to the weakness.

A light trade was reported on both Wednesday and Thursday, with Southern live deals at mostly $242 with a few up to $243, steady to $1 higher than the prior week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed business was marked at mostly $383, $2 lower than the previous week’s weighted average basis Nebraska.

He says futures are working on lower weekly closes which may confirm an intermediate top, especially as seasonally the market starts to see lower demand in September and building cattle numbers.

“This would be the first lower weekly close in live cattle in 11 weeks and the first for feeder cattle in 7 weeks,” he says.

Corn and Soybeans Bounce Off Support: Wheat Hits New Lows....Again

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 20:38:47 GMT

Corn and soybeans ended with slight gains on Thursday, with wheat and cattle lower.

Corn Bounces Off Support

Kevin Duling with KD Investors says corn showed resilience once again shaking off early losses.

Futures bounced off support on the charts and he thinks the market is trying to probe for the low similar to last year.

“I look at the corn and it was able to hold the same low that we made on Tuesday, the buying came in and pushed it higher, it just feels like we’re walking on that same exact narrative and chart pattern that we had last year at this time and we made the lows in August and and had a pretty good month in September and we’re kind of working on that now,” he explains.

According to Duling, farmers are not anxious to make any sales on corn at these prices and until they see how big their crop is.

Corn Waiting for Yield Confirmation

Corn futures are also trying to determine the crop size especially with the onset of disease and drought in the Eastern Midwest and may mark time until it gets confirmation.

Private estimates still have corn yield close to USDA and Duling isn’t sure the market will get the confirmation it needs in the September WASDE.

So, he thinks the market will wait for harvest data comes off the combines.

“Personally I think it’s got to come out of the field because I mean the WASDE is known to really slow play adjustments on the way back down on yield,” he says.

Soybeans Bounce But Can the Market Hold Without China?

Soybean futures bounced off of support as well at the 200-day moving on the charts Thursday to close slightly higher but unlike corn Duling doesn’t think the market can build on it.

That’s because the market is more fixated on the lack of China export demand.

Even if the soybean crop is getting smaller due to dry conditions in the Eastern Corn Belt and due to disease, he says the yield would have to drop substantially to make up for the loss of China export business.

Wheat Futures Hit New Contract Lows....Again

Wheat futures were lower again for the day but at least ended off of session lows.

Soft red winter and hard red winter wheat both made new contract lows before seeing selling exhaustion but Duling is hopeful the market is getting close to carving out a low.

The funds or managed money traders took profits at the end of August and covered short positions and now it looks like they are pushing the short side of the market.

“Wheat gets hammered by the funds more than the rest because they get more response out of it. And today was encouraging to me just seeing it down eight or nine and then only closing down a couple cents. It’s like, okay, they put
a lot of ammunition into really hurting that market and they didn’t succeed at it,” he says.

Is Wheat Too Cheap?

At these low price levels Duling thinks wheat is too cheap.

Export sales have been strong at these low prices and the U.S. is competitive with a bid under Russian wheat values.

“I mean, we’ve got great demand. We have great. We’re the lowest price in the world by quite a bit. So, why do we need to cheapen up if we already found enough demand to take us well beyond what USDA set for exports?” he questions.

Cattle Continue to Fall with Lower Northern Cash Trade

Live and feeder cattle futures ended lower again on continued profit taking and consolidation.

However, the lower cash trade in the North may have also sparked some of the selling.

A light trade was reported. Southern live deals were at $242, fully steady with last week’s weighted averages. Northern dressed trade at $383, $2 lower than last week’s weighted average, basis Nebraska. Live sale trade in the North was at $245, down $3.

Duling says this could spur a deeper correction in the live cattle futures.

Grain and Cattle Markets Continue to Slide: Can They Hold Key Chart Support?

Thu, 04 Sep 2025 14:55:30 GMT

Grain and cattle futures are lower early Thursday with hogs slightly higher.

Corn and Soybeans Continue to Consolidate

Brady Huck with Advance Trading says corn and soybeans continue to see profit taking and consolidation after the recent run off the August lows.

Corn and Soybeans Need to Hold Support

December corn failed at resistance on Wednesday and took out Wednesday’s lows overnight, so he says the contract needs to hold the 50-day moving average at $4.14 1/2 to keep the near term uptrend intact.

November soybeans need to hold the 200-day moving average at $10.26 1/2 but there are several other moving averages clustered between $10.25 and $10.30.

Corn and Soybeans Determining Crop Size

The market realizes the top end of the yield curve has already been established in corn and soybeans and while the crop is shrinking it is still going to be a big crop.

Private firms are releasing yield estimates ahead of the September WASDE next Friday and many have been close to USDA’s August figures which is also weighing on the markets.

Allendale’s yield estimates were at 187.5 bu. per acre on corn and 53.3 bu. on soybeans and StoneX releases their projections Thursday.

“The market seems to be discounting the effects of disease, drought and even frost chances on yield. So, we may have to wait until the combines roll to get a real accurate picture,” he says.

There is likely some early hedge and harvest pressure starting to take place as well he says.

Soybean Demand a Lingering Concern

Soybeans are also lower for a third day on trade concerns.

There has been no movement on a trade deal with China and the lack of new crop soybean export business to China continues to overhang the market.

Wheat Continues to be an Anchor

Huck says wheat continues to be an anchor on the grain complex as well.

Southern Plains and Black Sea wheat areas have been receiving some timely rains for planting and that is part of the story according to Huck.

Hard red winter wheat is right at contract low prices and while that isn’t buying any wheat acres for cropping purposes he thinks those fields are likely being planted to winter wheat for grazing cattle.

Export demand has been strong for especially HRW wheat but Huck says the U.S. is still not competitive globally from a price standpoint with cheaper Russian wheat dominating the market.

Cattle Prices Due for a Deeper Correction?

Cattle futures are further consolidating on Thursday and Huck says the feeder cattle futures are anticipating a large drop in the cash index.

The most recent data has the Feeder Cattle Cash Index at $365.52, up $1.05, but he says the new calculation will likely result in a $4 to $5 drop.

Feeders have been the price leaders and so a cooling of that market may in turn slow down the live cattle futures.

Boxed beef cutouts have continued strong with Choice values at $416.01, up $2.59 on yesterday’s close.

That means packers are in the black on margins and should be able to support the cash market even as kills ramp up after this holiday week.

Cash trade was light on Wednesday in the South at $242 live, steady with last week. However, he thinks Southern feedlots will hold out for higher money.

Northern dressed trade was also light at $383 to $385 and $242.