Weekend Market Report

Soybeans Strong Heading Into China Summit

Sat, 09 May 2026 01:08:38 GMT

For the week July corn was 9 cents lower, December corn was down 5 ¾, July soybeans gained 4 ¾, November soybeans added 6 ¾, July soybean meal was $.40 higher, July bean oil lost 84 points, July soft red winter wheatlost 18 ¾, July hard red winter lost 18 ¾, July hard red spring wheat fell 24.

Strong Week in Soybeans on China Hopes
Soybeans ended sharply higher on Friday and posted higher weekly closes on optimism about the outcome of the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on May 14-15 in Beijing.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the market is anticipating additional purchases of U.S. soybeans to be announced at the summit, in addition to other agricultural products.

In late October, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said China had agreed to buy 12 MMT of soybeans for the current year and 25 MMT for the three years following. President Trump followed that up with a social media post on February 4 indicating China would be buying an additional 8 MMT of old crop soybeans.

Gulke says Friday’s rally in soybeans was impressive and the technical action for the week was positive as the November contract closed above the March and April highs.

“November took out the March highs early this week, then backed off Wednesday and Thursday, then turned around and went back up again. So, it’s respecting new highs for May. That’s important. If you can stay above the April and March highs like we have and exceed it then you’re probably on to something that’s more long-term. We’ve done that in new crop,” he explains.

July or old crop soybeans filled the gap from the limit down day on March 9 when President Trump announced he was delaying the China summit due to the war in Iran, but could not close above the March high.

He says when a market fails like that it is a concern but if the market is positive enough to close above that gap it’s significant and signals a bigger rally.

So next week will be a pivotal week to see if July soybeans can close above the March high of $12.50 3/4, especially with the big news items hitting the market including the May WASDE and the China summit.

Corn Lower for the Week, Funds Still Long
On the other hand, corn posted lower weekly closes in both the July and December contacts, which is concerning to Gulke.

It may be tied to more acres of corn being planted than what USDA indicated in the March Prospective Plantings report.

Gulke says in talking to his seed dealer, he indicated he had not seen any farmers bring back corn to exchange for soybeans.

“There was a lot of talk about it, but he said nobody really did it in any significance. And so you have a lot of rumors and innuendo, but when you talk to some of the seed corn guys, it wasn’t significant if it was at all.So, apparently, they found inputs,” he states.

Gulke also talked to his fertilizer supplier, who indicated they had enough fertilizer in stock for anyone that did not pre-book.

“They’ll pay more than they would have in October or November but they can get it,” he says, “So, I’m wondering whether things are as bad as the media would have led us to believe. Just because prices got high, does not mean it wasn’t available.”

Funds Long in Corn and Soybeans
According to the latest CFTC Commitment of Traders Report the funds are long in both corn and soybeans and added to those positions in the last week.

In the soybean complex the managed money traders have been long for several weeks.

Gulke says, “It’s very impressive. I would have probably bet they stayed neutral maybe even liquidate a little but it looks like they bought into any kind of weakness.They did a huge, huge amount in new crop corn and corn and beans in general.”

Some in the trade media, according to Gulke, will come out Monday saying when traders get this long they need to get out at some time.“And when he gets out, the doors are not going to be big enough to let him out.”

Gulke disagrees.“The large spec is kind of like a hockey player that wants to shoot the puck or watch where he thinks the puck’s going to go and not where it is. And that’s what they’re looking at.They’re opportunists. They’re buying grain or buying stocks or whatever in anticipation of selling it at a higher price.”

So, the funds can keep defending their market longs longer than you think or in the case of wheat funds were short for nearly four years.

“You have the speculator who bets millions and billions on managing money. They’re still long. If you’re heavily negative agriculture, you probably look over your shoulder and say, what am I missing? We’ll find that out later but usually the large spec is smarter than I am, so I watch him pretty close,” he concludes.

For more information you can contact Jerry and info@gulkegroup.com .

Grains End Higher for April: Is a Bull Market Underway?

Sat, 02 May 2026 01:02:38 GMT

For the week July corn was up 16 3/4 cents, December was 14 ½ higher, July soybeans gained 24 ¾, November soybeans soared 27, July soybean meal was up $.20, July soybean oil surged 383 points, July hard red winter wheat was 24 ¾ higher, July soft red winter wheat gained 21 and September hard red spring wheat was up 12 ½.

Higher Monthly Closes in April
Grain markets were all higher for the week and closed April with a second consecutive higher monthly close.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says technically it is a very bullish to see grain markets making new highs for the year starting in May.

What Does it Signal?
“When you close above the previous month’s high, usually what that tells you is that going all the way back to January the market is digesting and discounting all the fundamental news that came out, even the most bearish news in the January 12 WASDE,” he explains.

The market also rejected the bearish news from the USDA Ag Outlook Forum in February and the delayed meeting with China in March.

“All that was digested and you couldn’t close below the previous month’s low like we did in past down trending markets.The market indicated it needed to push prices high enough to ration the demand for some reason and it exceeds all those fundamentals that are there. And we did it in April,” he adds.

Now the market is looking ahead at acreage according to Gulke and trying to determine if there will be more acres of soybeans and less acres of corn because of high fertilizer prices.

“So, you end up on Friday with corn going up more than beans or as much as beans, five cents. So, it looks like there’s a concern out there that even with lower exports to China and a record crop in Brazil, we need more acres of soybeans. That’s pretty exciting,” he says.

Now that the market has moved above the April highs he says the confirmation of a bull market is to see that uptrend continue in May.

“I want to see that continue in the first full trading day and week in May and through the WASDE report.Historically this time frame in May 10-13 has been a time when the market prices in the best news.So, we need to hold above that April high during May or there is a problem,” he says.

Currently he thinks the market is acting like it doesn’t care how many acres of corn or soybeans farmers grow because it is not going to be adequate.

Start of a Bigger Bull Market?
So, is this the beginning of a bigger bull market like the one that started in 2020 coming out of COVID?

Gulke thinks so and it’s being pushed by demand.

Two Large Demand Factors
1. Global Biofuels – The first demand component is the global push for biofuels.

Gulke says it’s not just the U.S. but economies around the world are looking at alternatives to mitigate $100 plus crude oil prices, plus high gasoline diesel fuel prices.

Countries like Indonesia are pushing from a B40 to a B50 biodiesel mandate and Brazil is increasing their ethanol blending rate from 30% to 32%.

Gulke says even in Illinois they have increased their vegetable oil based biodiesel blending rate from 10% to 20%.are using a 20% biodiesel blend made from soybean oil.

He says, “If crude oil stays above $100 suddenly everyone is going to need alternatives.”

2. Food Security – The second demand component is a function of food security.

Gulke says with near to record higher global fertilizer prices and a supply crunch in many countries’ food insecurity is on the rise.

“If you’re in a crisis area for crude oil and energy, you’ve got to say which is more important, the food I eat or the fuel that I burn in a car to go get my groceries?”

While the U.S. doesn’t have a problem with energy supplies, the prices are globally driven.

“Countries that have to import 70% to 80% of their energy, and they’re also importing food. You’ve got to be thinking about storing a little more grain in your country just in case,” he adds.

Plus, if tariffs are causing countries to buy more from the U.S., Gulke thinks that helps with demand.

Bull Markets Difficult to Manage
So, if the U.S. is on the verge of a bull market what should producers do?

Gulke says bull markets are difficult to manage.

“Bear markets, when something happens, you can sell on the bottom, gravity takes over. Bull markets just keep eating away at the negative rhetoric, like we’ve seen for months in the agriculture community. The price of inputs is going up but the price of commodities is also going up to help mitigate some of that, unless you are highly leveraged,” he describes.

According to Gulke, the problem is also if farmers sell now and the price goes up, they feel like they’ve left money on the table.

“So, it’s very difficult to handle bull markets because you can’t pick a top until it’s behind you in most cases but it’s still exciting,” he concludes.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Is the Corn Market Rolling Over?

Sat, 11 Apr 2026 16:27:26 GMT

For the week May corn was down 11 ¼ cents, December corn fell 9, May soybeans were 12 ¼ higher, November soybeans were up 3 ¾, May soybean meal surged $16.60 per short ton, May soybean oil fell 185 points, May soft red winter wheat fell 27 ¼, May hard red winter wheat lost 25, May hard red spring wheat plunged 35.

Corn futures scored a bearish lower weekly close for a second week and are now around 30 cents off the highs the market hit during the Iran war.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the corn market was higher in February but hit a high on March 9.

July corn rallied up to $4.87 ½ and December up to $4.98 ½ in tandem with a spike in crude oil to over $120 a barrel as the Iran war shut down the Strait of Hormuz.

However, since that time corn market has been correcting.

Gulke says, “Corn made the highs right at the peak of the Iranian war. Then we tried two different weeks to go higher and couldn’t do it.”

Corn Technicals Turn Bearish
July futures have fallen 34 cents and retraced a full 62% from the low Jan 15 to high March 9.

December corn futures during the same period have retraced 50% and are within 4 cents of the 62% retracement.

In both cases, the 50-day average has or is close to being violated.

Gulke more closely watches weekly charts and says an up trending market makes higher highs and higher lows and he gets concerned if in any week the market closes below the previous week’s low.

“It doesn’t have to have a major key reversal. But after going up for five, six, seven, eight weeks, and if that uptrend falters, the market better turn around and make new highs off of last week’s low and get this uptrend going.If not there’s something going on that we don’t know yet, but the managed money does and that happened last week,” he explains.

Corn Removes War Premium
According to Gulke the corn market also tested the breakout point from the late February when the Iran war started.

“We’ve gone back to that point now. So, the market discounted all the potential bullishness out of the war if that’s what we were doing, in fact, is worrying about the war from a trade standpoint. We’ve gone back now and we’ve wiped all that out,” he says.

Gulke says that tell him the corn market doesn’t care about the war anymore and is instead trading its own fundamentals.

That includes too much corn, and the market was reminded of that in the April WASDE with the 2.127 billion bu. ending stocks figure.

He thinks there may be some concern about lost demand with global customers after the war in Iran.“Are we really going to get people to want to buy our grain when we’re not making any friends?”

Funds Exiting Long Corn Positions
The CFTC Commitment of Traders Report on Friday showed speculative traders had exited a larger percentage of their long position in corn.

He says, “When you look at it, it’s quite a percentage and this report lags as it is as of last Tuesday.So, they probably dumped a lot more because the price dropped significantly.”

Corn Losses Ground to Soybeans
During the time that corn was going down, soybeans stayed stronger which Gulke says may have bought a few soybean acres.

He is already planting more soybeans this year at a ratio of two to one but says his profit potential just got even better with the difference between his net profit before expenses.

“That spread widened in favor of beans at about $50 an acre in my books. So, it didn’t mean that soybeans took off and went through the roof. It’s just that corn went down,” he explains.

So, for farmers that waited to buy fertilizer the decision to stick with corn hasn’t gotten any better and Gulke says they may plant soybeans.

Is the Corn Rally Over?
He says the corn market rallied and gave farmers a chance to lock in higher prices than last year and gain from $60 to $80 an acre more gross income to help pay for fertilizer.

That incentive is now gone according to Gulke and he thinks the high may be in the corn market at least for old crop.

“It sure looks like it. In fact, if old crop corn July does not turn around and reverse itself next week and close above this last week’s high, which is a pretty tall order, then the weekly technicals I watch will turn negative.”

So now the hope for a corn rally he says is tied to weather.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Markets Fail to Rally on Positive News

Sat, 28 Mar 2026 14:51:19 GMT

For the week May corn was down 3 ½ cents, May soybeans lost 2 cents, May soybean meal plunged $12.50, May soybean oil soared 190 points, May hard red winter wheat was up 26 ½, May soft red winter wheat gained 9 ¾ and May hard red spring wheat was 20 ¼ higher.

Corn and soybeans were lower for the week and on Friday with a bearish reaction to several positive announcements during the White House Celebration of Ag.

One of the most significant was EPA’s release of the final Renewable Fuel Standard Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027.

EPA’s final rule maintains the 15 billion conventional biofuel level for 2026 and 2027.

Blending levels for biomass-based diesel, which includes biodiesel and renewable diesel, were also increased by nearly 60% from the previous standards to between an estimated 5.0 to 5.7 billion gallons according to Clean Fuels Alliance America.

Corn and Soybeans React Negatively to RVO Announcement
Jerry Gulke president of the Gulke Group says beyond the final RVOs, President Trump didn’t talk about anything new for agriculture at the event, so corn and soybeans sold off.

He says when a market reacts negatively to positive news that’s not a good sign.

The RVO announcement had been anticipated for weeks and Gulke says the markets saw profit taking as the news was already priced in.

Soybean oil had been on a tear since January, and old and new crop corn had rallied well off the long-term lows hit 18 months ago.

“There’s an old trader’s axiom, I guess you call it, that says it’s not so much what the report says, it’s what the market does with the report. And if you close lower, on what would otherwise be a friendly or a bullish report, that probably tells you that the majority of that good news was already baked into the price,” he explains.

Even sharply higher crude oil prices failed to rally corn and soybeans on Friday.

Gulke thinks the markets are starting to become numb to the war news and will need a fresh bullish catalyst to resume the rally.

“That’s kind of a caution signal to me that we’d better we better pull another rabbit out of the hat on Tuesday or we may be in trouble for the short run,” he adds.

Markets Await USDA Reports
In fact, corn and soybeans did not totally collapse because the market is waiting for the results of USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Stocks Reports on March 31.

Gulke says the trade will be watching to see if the corn acres were reduced even more than initially thought due to the impact the Iran war has had on fertilizer prices and supplies.

He says the Gulke Group’s client surveys on acreage were on the high end of the corn estimates.

“We don’t see the big drop in corn acres and going to soybeans.”

He says the U.S. will need an additional 3.8 or 4 million acres of beans with the higher RVOs and if China does buy new crop soybeans at harvest when prices are low.

Without that kind of a shift, he contends the U.S. will continue to see big corn supplies which will back December corn prices off of current levels.

He says many farmers will make that decision in the next 30 days depending on whether or not they have fertilizer in place and what corn prices do.

“That may make some of those guys switch. And again, then we won’t know until June 30 what actually happened,” he adds.

Is the Rally Over in Corn and Soybeans?
With lower weekly closes and a lack of bullish news is the rally over in corn and soybeans?

He says even if the corn market trades higher right after the report but takes out this week’s lows and results in a lower weekly close that will cause concern.

Gulke says, “I don’t want to risk as much as I did. I wanted to risk more 18 months ago when I felt the market had changed. But if you go back to August of 2024, look at what the prices were at the end of August when we made those lows and where they are now. We’re considerably higher.”

He says soybeans are worth $100 an acre more than they were 18 months ago and even last fall.

Even corn is approaching $5 for March delivery for those that store grain.

Gulke says prices were high enough for him to reward the market with some cash sales.

“I don’t want to be short the futures here necessarily, but I made cash sales at better prices than last fall,” he says.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Rally in Crude Oil Brings New Crop Grain Marketing Opportunities

Sat, 21 Mar 2026 15:46:49 GMT

For the week May corn was down 1 ¾ cents, December lost ¾, May soybeans plunged 64, November soybeans fell 20 ½, May soybean meal gained $5.30, May bean oil lost 193 points, May soft red winter wheat was 18 ½ lower, May hard red winter wheat was down 23 ¾, May hard red spring wheat fell 17 ½.

Grains were all lower for the week with profit taking heading into the weekend and seeing a needed correction after a rally that has lasted for more than six weeks.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grain markets have been a buzz with headlines around the Iran war and energy prices.

He says the rally in crude oil is about global energy security but it has benefited the grain markets and just provided another fundamental reason to justify a market that technically looked like it was poised to move higher several months ago.

“When you make new highs for the year and month, go higher than January and February in March, and you’ve got soybeans at the highest level since 2004, and even wheat is going up. Now you’ve got to ask yourself, what’s going on that made that possible? And I think the war is one of those things and it’s all energy security.”

Global Food Security
According to Gulke, global food security is also a big part of the recent strength in the energy and grain market.

“There are countries that are begging for not only energy, but maybe not getting fertilizer because the Strait of Hormuz is closed. You’ve got to ask yourself if you’re one of the countries, how much do I really want to rely on Brazil or Russia or the United States to get me grain when the path to my country has been blocked?”

Gulke says when shipping shuts down and you can’t get food, energy or fertilizer at any price it changes the attitude of the market participants because there are many countries that aren’t food independent like the U.S.

“I always ask people that doubt all that. What would you pay for a loaf of bread to feed your kids today if you had one when you’re not going to get another one for two weeks or three weeks? It’s priceless,” he adds.

Gulke says just-in-time inventory works for companies that supply parts or less perishable products.It doesn’t work for people that need food on a 30-day or 60-day basis.

Time for a Grain Reserve?
Gulke wrote a column in Top Producer a couple of years ago about how it was high time that the world did not rely on the U.S. to be the supplier of last resort, so to speak.

The Iran war has renewed his idea that the time has come for some type of grain reserve where countries would have a 30-day or 60-day supply on hand all the time.“If it’s 60 days, how much did that cost them versus not having it? And we see the riots in Cuba for not having lights on. You know, what happens if they don’t have the food come in? I don’t think any government wants to take that chance. And I think it’s a small price to pay for food security.”

That might take building grain bins or extra freezer storage for meat, but according to Gulke it would be worth it.

Corn at $5
Even with the slight correction on Friday, new crop corn and soybeans have been gaining on old crop already pricing in higher fuel, fertilizer and shipping costs for 2026 and even 2027.

In fact, March 2027 corn ended at $5 and it’s a level many farmers thought was unattainable just a few weeks ago according to Gulke.The market was so negative for the last year about a record crop in Brazil and the idea the U.S. could not compete, which held back any promise of prosperity.

Gulke says these price levels have given farmers some marketing opportunities.

“You know $4.50 was a big deal. Now we’ve got $5 corn for next year.If you’ve got storage at home, you can pick that up and hedge it off and make money on the basis gain.”

He says there are various marketing tools and farmers can use futures and options at the right time to lock in these levels.

Marketing Strategy
The Gulke Group did recommend clients sell some corn on Friday.

“I think we sold 10%. We made our first sale of November soybeans, and it was over $12. I wanted to net $12 out of the field. Didn’t quite make, I think I got $10.95 for the first 10% or 15% that we sold. From here on up, its profit,” he details.

Gulke recommends farmers look hard at their break evens with trusted advisors and start assembling a marketing plan.He says producers need to take advantage of the strong market in case things change, including the weather.

“As a farmer I tell myself, I’m hoping to sell 10% or 15% of my cash grain out of the field. And if I’m wrong at $12 in soybeans, then so be it. We’ll worry about that later down the road. It’s interesting to see this unfold. I’m not negative by any stretch of the imagination about the future, but I’ve got enough common sense to say you know, I’m not going to risk my farm.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Corn Sees a Paradigm Shift...Just Like Soybeans

Sat, 14 Mar 2026 16:29:35 GMT

For the week May corn was up 6 ¾ cents, December corn gained 7, May soybeans soared 24 ½, November soybeans were up 14 ¾, May soybean meal was $5.50 per short ton higher, May soybean oil added 86 points, May soft red winter wheat lost 3, May hard red winter wheat was 6 ½ higher and May hard red spring wheat gained 2.

Grain markets were mostly higher for the week with soybeans leading the gains, despite increased volatility tied to the Iran war.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the strength was even more impressive considering the market absorbed massive farmer selling by those who had stored old crop grain and were finally able to reward the market on the rally.

“Corn futures absorbed the increase in farmer selling this week like it wasn’t there. The market even ignored news that elevators and ethanol plants bought so much that they have filled needs for next 60-90 days.That process is called “shaking the lose leaves off the tree,”

He says even the large speculative net position in corn has been decreasing since last October.

Paradigm Shift in Corn
Gulke says this is a result of the paradigm shift that has also taken place in the corn market.

Last week Gulke dove into the change in market outlook for soybeans from positive to negative 18 months ago, adding that he though Q1 of 2026 would be friendly.Soybeans are already in the process of breaking a four-year down trend and according to Gulke corn is setting up for the same type of technical action.

Corn Chart Shows a Breakout
The monthly continuous corn chart looks similar to last week’s soybean chart.

Gulke explains the uptrends in the early 2000’s were a result of the increase in ethanol production and demand, which resulted in corn topping out near $8 per bu.

“Price discovery then says, all right, we’ve got all these people now growing $8 corn. We’ve got too much, and the price went down to seek more demand and never really did go back.” That was followed by a seven-year demand building era trying to match demand with oversupply.

Gulke says the drought induced supply rally of 2011-2012 topped corn again near $8 proving that even Brazil would respond to price by adding corn, as well as soybean acres.“We finally got corn back up to a price that invited more competition out of Brazil. And that’s what high prices do. They invite competition,” he explains.

This brings us to today where the corn market has spent several years once again building demand, and that’s the process according to Gulke. “That’s how it works. If you want to fight against that, it’s a losing proposition.”

(Gulke Group)

Corn Chart Shows Long Term Low Forged
The continuous corn chart, which monitors the front month, shows three distinct lows coinciding with August 31^st he says. This includes the low made in August of 2024.

“That’s when we said there was a paradigm shift in agriculture ahead of even Trump getting elected and the tariffs being invoked. It is a global phenomenon that took place and we would have had a demand increase in corn and soybeans even without the tariffs,” he explains.

Last August, the corn market made another significant low, according to Gulke, and is now rallying off that low.

“Now we’re trying to break out above levels that were former support. You can see it on the chart. The media will tell you that’s all about oil, and it’s correlated with this and that. This started a long time ago,” he adds.

Outlook for Corn
Corn prices have rallied well off the August 12 low of $4.10. Gulke says producers who held grain in storage waiting for this kind of opportunity should be rewarding the market.

“Now I’ve got 40 to 50 cents a bushel more. You know, that’s $100 an acre on 200-bushel corn. Even if I told you it’s going to go to $7, you probably want to sell some because you don’t want to risk the whole farm. You risk it when it’s cheap and you can’t replace it for a new crop for that price, then you hold it. There’s a risk and reward, and now the time for taking a reward,” he explains.

However, Gulke’s longer term outlook for corn is bullish as demand continues strong, especially for with record exports and ethanol production.

“I have a feeling that China will probably become a corn buyer down the road a ways, and that may be next fall. They’re not going to buy high-priced stuff now perhaps, but we’ll see what comes out of the meeting in April.”

Gulke thinks China’s economy is faltering and with the U.S. now controlling more of the global oil supplies the U.S. has leverage.“So, we’re kind of holding a lever over their heads that’s going to help our grain prices help them buy from us.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Did the Iran War Really Move Grain Prices Higher This Week?

Sat, 07 Mar 2026 16:53:05 GMT

For the week May corn was up 12 cents, December corn gained 15, May soybeans soared 30, November soybeans were 18 ½ higher, May soybean meal lost $3.30 per short ton, May bean oil surged 473 points, May soft red winter wheat was 25 ¼ better, May hard red winter wheat tacked on 43, May hard red spring wheat was 13 higher.

Grain Rally Not Tied to War

Grain futures were all higher for the week and posted new highs for the move and for the calendar year on Friday.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says while many analysts are pointing to the rally in crude oil and the war in Iran as the reason for the strong grain performance, he thinks the breakout was brewing long before that.

He thinks its the early signal of a longer-term bull market, and it would have also happened with or without President Trump’s use of tariffs as a negotiating tool for trade.

“If you think about it, all this is happening even after the Supreme Court said the tariffs were invalid. So that convinced me that my assessment was correct and that this was going to happen with or without tariffs,” he explains.

Stars Align in the Grains

Gulke says the stars had been aligning in the grain markets for some time.

He observed a paradigm shift happening in the way the U.S. did business in the world in August 2024, even before President Trump was elected.

“The tariffs and all that just added to the fact that we want people to buy more from us. We want a level playing field and we’re going to do more internally.”

He says Trump administration trade officials speaking at the USDA Ag Outlook Forum reinforced that agenda. “If you recall they said we need to do more domestic production and walk products off the shore, so to speak.

Sell people parts of animals, not the whole carcass, sell them ethanol, not the corn for them to make ethanol, and so forth. ”He says if adding value to raw commodities is kept in the United States money can be made by giving people jobs and selling more goods.

Gulke believes this is showing up in the record pace of U.S. corn exports which year to date now total 2.556 billion bu., up 31% from the previous year.

However, he thinks even the soybean market is starting to take notice of the record crush pace.

This helps explain the recent parabolic move in soybean oil.

Demand has been strong for all vegetable oils for use in global biofuels production, including palm oil and canola.

He says if soybean crush stays at its current pace USDA will need to raise its crush projection by 70 million bu. and would put ending stocks down to a tight 280 million bu.

Grains Surprise the Trade Making New Highs for the Year

Last week corn, wheat, soybeans and bean oil posted higher monthly closes.

The continued strength and new highs for the year in the month of March have been contrary to what many in the market were expecting he points out. “We’re three months into the year and the insurance has passed. Pretty interesting. And I’ve been around long enough to see this happen before. And it looked very bullish to me 18 months ago. It just took time to transition.”

Market at a Crossroad

For example, looking at a long-term soybean chart, he thinks the market is at a crossroads. “We’ve rallied now to the point where there’s a long-term downtrend that started four years ago. And if we can break that long-term trend, it says something truly has changed for the outlook of soybeans beyond $12. We’ve been to $17 before.”

He says the key is to be on the right side of the market when that breakout rally happens.

Gulke adds that weather could be another catalyst especially with the expanding drought on the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Conversely, with the quick transition from La Nina to El Nino there could also be some areas that see a wet spring and planting delays.

(Gulke Group)

Should Farmers Sell?

Gulke says they, like many farmers, did sell some old crop prior to this rally for cash flow purposes.

So, scale up selling as the market rallies to meet cash flow demands is warranted.

However, there is still a lot of grain in storage.

He says most bankers that have met with farmers to secure an operating loan for 2026 are likely more focused on selling the farmer crop insurance to guarantee the loan, rather than requiring the farmer to have a marketing plan in place.

Gulke wrote to clients this week that in these volatile environments it is even more difficult to know when the top is in the grain markets and when you should be selling grain or forward pricing new crop bushels.

He says now that the February crop insurance guarantees have been set if the market is concerned about not having enough soybeans, wheat or corn, then prices need to go up to curb demand, or farmers will switch acres last minute.

Acreage Battle?

Corn acreage was already expected to be down and with higher fertilizer prices due to the war in Iran.

Add to that the possibility of China buying another 8 million metric tons of old crop soybeans at the April summit in Beijing and Gulke says that could fuel a late acreage battle.

However, currently he says the market is indicating it does care.

“I did an analysis and with the rise in corn prices since the first of the year, we’ll say, we’ve gained about 40 cents in corn, so about $80 an acre in corn and we’re at about $50 in soybeans. So, corn has not lost its impetus to want to hold those corn acres.”

Gulke doesn’t think the higher fertilizer prices will make a big difference on corn acreage.

“A lot of that fertilizer was bought ahead of time and if you didn’t get it all bought the market just gave you money in the price to help offset that delta increase in fertilizer by maybe a factor of two. I don’t think the cost of fertilizer and nitrogen went up $40 an acre.”

On his own farm Gulke has changed some acres around and is planting more soybeans this year. “Soybeans now, to me, are about a $40 an acre better deal than what corn is. A lot of people won’t agree with that, but that’s how we farm, and it works for us.”

For more information or to attend the Gulke Group’s annual seminar at the end of this month you can email Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Is Something Brewing in the Corn Market?

Sat, 24 Jan 2026 16:48:55 GMT

The grain markets all ended higher last week with a new high close for the move in corn. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says fundamentally many in the trade will try to attribute the rally to the cold weather and how it has slowed grain movement from truck to barge. However, he says, the corn market has technically looked good for a while.

Coincidentally this comes just two weeks after the shock and awe in the corn market from the January WASDE and final crop production report, where USDA increased production to a record 17 billion bushels with an unexpected 1.3 million acre increase in harvested acres.

Is Something Going on in the Corn Market?

After the 25 cent drop in corn prices Gulke says it uncovered some insatiable demand as end users saw those price levels as a bargain. USDA has continued to report a string of large flash export sales. For the week ending Jan. 16, export sales were nearly 158 million bushels. That was a marketing year high, and a level not achieved since 2021.

The U.S. corn export market has an advantage the first quarter of a new year, according to Gulke. Generally sales are steady to higher but rarely run at this blistering pace.

“If the export sales continue in corn, you may have to raise the export projection from USDA even higher.”

In fact, he predicts USDA’s record export projection of 3.2 billion bushels could be 75 million bushels too low.

Is China Buying Corn?

Gulke also thinks it’s possible the flash sales of corn to unknown destinations could be China because corn export sales normally go to Mexico and there are hardly any export customers afraid to report they are buying U.S. corn.

“We’ve got to watch China. They’ve been bragging about how good the crop is but maybe their crop isn’t as good as they thought,” he explains.

Can Corn Recover to Pre-WASDE Levels?

Corn lost over 25 cents after the report and broke out of the bottom side of the sideways trading range it had been stuck in for months. Gulke says while it’s not impossible for corn to rally back to those levels the odds don’t favor it.

“Why would corn ever go up there knowing full well there’s tons of grain that’s going to be sold off the farm. I guess we proved that in the report with on-farm stocks. What shouldn’t happen is if this market is that bad, you shouldn’t get a second chance,” he explains.

He says the market may retrace 50% of that price drop as it’s already bounced nearly 15 cents off the lows, but he’s not confident in a further recovery without a major catalyst.

Corn Is In Price Discovery Process

Gulke says the corn market is just starting its price discovery process for the 2026 crop, which is not so much about what you know.

“It’s what you don’t know that is going to come and surprise us like the WASDE did on the downside, which has helped get corn prices low enough to where we are going to stay competitive until Brazil finally harvests their big crop a few months down the road,” he says.

The corn market is also entering a critical time where farmers who did not already apply fertilizer in the fall are making 2026 planting decisions. Currently, Gulke says corn acreage is expected to drop three to four million acres. Their early client acreage survey results show little, if any, increase in corn acres and a few farmers have switched to soybeans because of the lower input costs.

“If you like your 50-50 rotation it’ll stay that way,” he says.

If that is the case it will be difficult to drop carryout much under 2.2 billion bushels, which would keep corn stuck in its current trading range.

This is also the time of year, according to Gulke, when you expect to see some weather premium being added to the markets.

“I don’t think there’s any weather premium in corn right now. If there is, it’s very little,” he adds.

He says it’s also been a few years since the U.S. has had a wet spring or any planting delays to cause a weather rally, but there are still many unknowns about the weather for the 2026 growing season.

February Crop Insurance Price Period

The corn market is also entering February when crop insurance guarantees are established for spring crops.

“There are new high closes I think in wheat for the year, corn and in beans as well. We’re doing some things in the month of January that are very interesting. We’ll see if we can continue that into February,” he says.

Currently corn prices are close to last spring’s levels. However, with the improved crop insurance premium subsidies in the One Big Beautiful Bill, Gulke says farmers could still see better guarantees than in 2025.

“A lot of farmers are telling me they can buy insurance with up to 95% coverage using some of the Farmer Bridge Assistance payments they’re receiving,” he explains. The crop insurance price guarantee for corn will further affect farmers’ decisions on whether they want to plant more corn or not. He says unfortunately instead of farmers taking their cue from the market, they are getting signals from government policy and programs.

For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: What Did We Learn From the USDA Reports?

Sat, 17 Jan 2026 17:00:05 GMT

For the week March corn lost 21 cents, March soybeans fell 4 ¾, March soybean meal plunged $13.70, March soybean oil soared 292 points, March soft red winter wheat gained ¾, March hard red winter wheat lost 3 and March hard red spring wheat fell 2.

Grain markets were mostly lower for the week with corn taking the brunt of the selling pressure in reaction to USDA’s bearish January reports. The agency raised corn yield by .5 bu. per acre to 186.5 bu. and raised harvested acres by 1.3 million, which led to a record 17 billion-bu. crop. This was a disappointment and even a shock for many farmers who were convinced the yield would be cut.

What Did We Learn From The USDA Report?
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says the report provided some valuable lessons about marketing. “You just can’t look in your backyard and think, what’s going on there is the same everywhere.We had clients in Nebraska that would have bet the farm that the yield was going to be closer to 181 or 182 rather than 186 bu.If they bet the farm they lost,” he says.

Where Did the 1.3 Million Harvested Corn Acres Come From?
Gulke says USDA added insult to injury by raising harvested acres another 1.3 million to a final 91.3 million acre. The Gulke Group does an acreage survey every spring and he says in 2025 it showed over 100 million acres of corn would be planted by farmers.“And I said, I can’t print that, you know, I’ll be the laughingstock of the media. Well, we finally printed 98.2 million and people thought we were nuts. Well, it took this long to get there.”So based on their survey work he was not surprised with USDA’s print because there was a massive move to corn.“I don’t care if you were a 250-acre farmer or a 10,000-acre farmer, they were all doing that.”

He says this was the first time in his career he’s seen that big of a trend shift, but it was forced by the crop insurance guarantee. “If you had full coverage on corn, you probably wouldn’t lose much so that has an influence. So, suddenly, we’re not taking our cues from the marketplace, we’re being manipulated by the media or by the president himself, perhaps. ”However, he says for soybeans insured at 85% of the price it takes a long time for the insurance to kick in.So, he thinks it will be hard to get acres to shift out of corn again in 2026.

Gulke says they thought USDA could raise harvested acres in the final production report based on the methodology and it made sense to him with an eight million acre increase in planted acres over last year. He explains, “There are always unharvested acres due to wind, hail and the like and the rest of it is cut for silage for use in dairies and other livestock operations.” Plus, the amount of corn cut for silage didn’t change much from last year so that extra corn was harvested as grain.

Farmers Upset with the USDA Report
Gulke heard from many clients after the report that were upset with USDA. “I mean, there were a lot of farmers that thought there was scheming going on by USDA before the report, but there’s a lot more suspecting it now. They say it proves all USDA wants is cheap food.”

While farmers can argue the credibility of USDA’s data and the models they use, he stresses that the agency doesn’t manufacture the numbers. He recommends producers really read the WASDE report. “You can go through the tables, and it shows what states had what, but then you get to the protocol. In other words, here they write about how they made their decisions and how the data came about.” He says only then can you argue the rationale behind it.

Report Indicates Farmers Storing More Grain
According to Gulke many farmers were surprised by the report because they were long in the market, as more stored grain this fall on the farm to for a rally. “You know, if the crop really wasn’t there, there was an awful lot of it stored on farms. There was 15% more grain stored on farm than last year.”Plus, Gulke also questioned if the corn supply was so tight why wasn’t his basis narrower? “ Prior to that report, my basis in northern Illinois was worse than when I harvested the grain.”

Gulke says he offered various marketing strategies this fall. “We talked about whether or not to store grain, or to sell it and buy a call.”He says for farmers that paid 30 to 40 cents to commercially store corn and wait for a rally, that corn is worth the same or less now than it was when it was harvested. According to Gulke, a loss of 25 cents on corn equals $50 an acre.So, for a farmer that was storing 2 million bu. that’s $500,000 of lost income.“It’s a lesson to be learned. I’ve seen it before. It’s just too bad that it didn’t go the way that everybody wanted to. Now we’ve got a problem,” he adds.

So, what should farmers learn from the report? Gulke says, “That you really have to think out of the box a little bit when it comes to your marketing or be prepared for a shock and there are marketing tools to help protect against that loss.”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

How the Bridge Payments Might Impact 2026 Planting Decisions

Sat, 20 Dec 2025 16:19:55 GMT

For the past three weeks, soybeans have been lower with the January contract now correcting nearly $1.20 off the Nov. 18 highs. The March contract has corrected $1.12. This comes as USDA is gearing up to announce payment rates for the Farmers Bridge Assistance (FBA) program this week. The University of Illinois’ Farmdoc estimates the payment rate for corn at $46 per acre and soybeans at $25 per acre.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the FBA program will impact his planting decisions for the 2026 crop season. A $46-per-acre payment on corn is woefully inadequate for him to plant corn next spring.

“This is like a bridge to nowhere,” he says.

Gulke says it’s politically popular for the administration to keep food prices as low as possible and still keep farmers in business. However, a $46 payment will barely cover his nitrogen fertilizer costs.

“I think [my fertilizer cost is] going to be up $33 an acre. If I get $45, then I just give it away again, and then maybe I farm another year,” he explains.

Plus, upside potential for corn is limited with carryout over 2.029 billion bushels, Gulke says.

“As it stands right now, we carried in 1.5 billion bushels. That’s 600 million bushels more carried into this marketing year than in 2024-2025,” he adds. “It’s going to be tough. We’re going to need a crop problem in the United States to solve that.”

Plant More Soybeans in 2026?
While the $25 per acre bridge payment on soybeans also falls short for farmers, Gulke says the cost of production is lower, making this option more attractive to him for 2026.

He can break even at $10 on soybeans sold out of the field, and even if the basis is wide, he won’t lose as much money on soybeans as he will on corn. If he puts the bridge payment and hedge profits into planting corn, it will quickly be gone to pay for fertilizer and herbicide.

“I got a quote for Roundup at $26 a gallon. That’s crazy,” Gulke says. “I’m just going to throw it away so I can break even and make $50 or $60 an acre on corn when someone just gave me $46? That’s like spitting in the wind.”

Gulke says the logical choice for his operation is to plant soybeans, which take fewer inputs and labor.

“I’ll plant soybeans, and I can combine them with a 40-foot head. I’m done pretty fast, I can put them in the bin and I can cut my labor and some of my machinery costs,” he adds.

Those farmers who didn’t apply anhydrous last fall still have options.

“I’m not opposed at all to planting beans on beans. I did that two years ago, and I didn’t suffer much of a loss at all,” Gulke says.

Fall Rally Presented a Profit in Soybeans
With the $1.40 rally up to $11.70 this fall in the soybean market, the nearby January contract offered a price that was more than $1 higher than 2024. For Gulke that presented an opportunity to hedge and lock in a profit.

“Corn hasn’t moved enough yet to make hedges profitable, but I took advantage of some fall prices in beans for 2026. I can take the profits on my soybean hedges and the bridge payment and when I put it into Excel spreadsheets from the University of Illinois it shows soybeans are my best option,” he says.

Each producer’s situation is different and Gulke stresses the importance of each operation evaluating how the USDA bridge payment will affect their profit and loss for 2025 or planting decisions for 2026.

For more information, contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Soybeans Confirm Market Top

Sat, 13 Dec 2025 02:04:26 GMT

For the week March corn fell 4 cents, May corn was 3 ¼ lower, January soybeans lost 28 1/2, March fell 29 ¼, March soybean meal was $6.60 lower, March bean oil dropped 159 points, March soft red winter wheat was 6 ½ lower, March hard red winter wheat fell 13 ¼ and March hard red spring wheat was up 2 3/4.

Soybeans Confirm a Top
Soybeans were sharply lower on Friday with the January contract down 16 ¾ closing at $10.76 ¾ and lost over 28 cents for the week.The March contract was down 16 cents and lost over 29 cents for the week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says soybeans scored a bearish weekly reversal last week and this week’s lower weekly closes confirm the top is in the soybean market.

South American Crop and Biofuels Uncertainty Adds Pressure to Market
Gulke says the pressure this week in soybeans was tied to technical selling, but the market has also digested the bullish news of the China soybean purchase agreement and is now focusing on the record large South American crop.

Soybeans and bean oil also saw pressure on Friday from news EPA would not be delaying the release of the Renewable Fuels Standard Renewable Volume Obligations.Reuters on Friday reported the decision is likely to be punted into next year as EPA is still reviewing public comments on volume requirements, offering no guidance on timing. Gulke says, “It’s like that whole biofuels feed stock thing has also been kicked under the bus until maybe next summer or something.You wonder what kind of deal we made with China. What did we give away to get them to buy 12 million metric tons of soybeans?”

Large Specs Were Long Soybeans at the Top
Soybeans topped on Nov. 18 with the January contract hitting a high of $10.79 ¼ and hit a low on Friday of $10.76 3/4 a correction of 94 cents. Gulke says large speculators started buying prior to the announcement of the U.S. China trade framework and continued to add to their long position in tandem with China making soybean purchases.The delayed CFTC Commitment of Traders report as of Nov. 18 showed specs were long 163,700 contracts of soybeans at the time the market topped. “And now with the report coming out late we’re going to be caught up by the early January and we’ll probably show that the large spec beat us to the punch again, and maybe, already started to liquidate,” he explains.

How Low Do Soybeans Project To On The Charts?
With another bearish close on soybeans Friday and for the week how low will soybeans fall? Gulke says the charts project to the gap area left on Oct. 24 on the January soybeans that extends from $10.63 up to $10.70. He says this is part of the price discovery process in the soybean market.“And now we go back and say, well, we’ve got a big South American crop coming.The profitability of corn and soybeans is bad this year. We’re going to get a bridge, perhaps, but that’s not enough. The job of price discovery is to see if $10.70 is cheap enough to get farmers like me not to plant as many soybean acres next year,” he says.

Gulke says soybeans could fall to the top side of the gap at $10.70 and stop but if the gap is filled and the soybean market closes below that area it is bearish for prices.

(Gulke Group )

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Has the Soybean Market Topped?

Sat, 06 Dec 2025 16:41:43 GMT

For the week March corn was down 3 cents, January soybeans lost 32 ½, March soybean meal fell $12.00, March soybean oil was 35 points lower, March soft red winter wheat was down 2 3/4, March hard red winter wheat gained 3 ¾ and March hard red spring wheat fell 5.

Soybeans collapsed on Friday with the January contract $.14 ¼ lower at $11.05 ¼ and also ending down $.33 for the week. Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the close was bearish as it confirmed a head and shoulders top by taking out the neckline at $11.13 and closing below that chart area. In the process, January soybeans also closed below the November low. He says that now opens the door to the $10.80 area or close to a 62% retracement from the October low to the November 18 high of $11.69 ½.

The fall rally coincided with the anticipation and then announcement of a trade truce and purchase agreement with China for U.S. soybeans.On October 30 Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the framework would include China purchasing 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans by the end of 2025, followed by purchases of 25 MMT for 2026 -2028.With China absent from the U.S. soybean export program, it was what the market needed to produce a nearly $1.40 rally. Gulke says, “The fall rally is price discovery of all the news that it has come out regarding China, both rumored and actual starting the end of October,”

The November high coincided with USDA confirming a daily export sale of 792,000 MT or 29.1 million bu. of soybeans to China for 2025-2026.January soybeans rallied up to $11.69 ½ but then closed lower and scored a daily key reversal in a classic “buy the rumor, sell the fact” reaction. Gulke says the market has not retested that area due to the lack of clarity regarding details and timing of the 12 MMT of soybean purchases included in the U.S. China trade framework.

This week Bessent added to the uncertainty in a Wall Street Journal interview when he suggested China was on target and would complete its buying program by February 28, once again moving the goalposts and creating the bearish price action. “We needed to see the market go higher and believe that not only are we going to go above $11.80 but we’re going a lot higher because China’s going to buy a lot of grain every week in order to meet their commitment in the next 30 to 60 days. That didn’t materialize,” he says.

Gulke says the daily reversal on November 18 is more bearish when considering the latest update on the CFTC Commitment of Traders Report. The Large Speculative Position (blue bars on the chart) below shows they significantly increased longs the first three weeks of November. “That coincides with talk of China buying and the Gulke Group’s technical system going long, after we first took profits on hedges and then bought the call options,” he explains. The report on December 5 shows specs were already long by the end of October. So, they covered shorts and reversed their net short position going into the October 30 meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi and by the time of the meeting were neutral.

When USDA finally gets caught up, Gulke says the report may show large speculators have already started to liquidate and take profits on long positions.Details of the framework and Bessent’s comments on Wednesday are important. He says, “Buying by China may have already taken place and thanks to the inability of USDA to upgrade data quickly, the trade could very well be behind the curve.Price discovery may have already been fulfilled with July futures (Brazil’s hedging tool) hitting $11.80, which is a very good price for Brazil’s 174 mmt crop.”

Price wise, January, July and November futures indicate short-term downtrends and need a significant turnaround to turn positive. As such, he will be closely watching next week’s reports. “The December WASDE on Tuesday should contain better analysis by USDA on demand given framework and administration rhetoric,” he adds.
For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Market Resets After USDA Data Dump

Sat, 15 Nov 2025 14:18:43 GMT

For the week December corn was up 3 cents, March corn was 2 higher, January soybeans gained 7 ½, March soybeans were up 10 ¼, December soybean meal was $5.40 higher, December bean oil gained 47-points, December hard red winter wheat fell 4, December soft red winter wheat eased ½ and December hard red spring wheat was up 7.

Grains ended lower on Friday in reaction to bearish numbers in the November crop production and WASDE reports.

USDA Report Takeaways
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says technically corn, soybeans and wheat all put in daily reversals on the charts on Friday after the USDA Reports. For soybeans the bearish reaction in the reports came from USDA lowering soybean exports 50 million bu. to 1.635 billion bu. while acknowledging China would be buying soybeans due to the trade framework.

Soybeans had rallied into the report and nearly $1.40 off the October lows as the market priced in additional China demand from the trade framework struck with the U.S. on October 30. So, Gulke wasn’t surprised with the reaction, as the best scenario was already priced into the soybean market. “The market’s job is one of price discovery. And we said, well, what if the Chinese or the USDA reflects that whole 12 million metric tons that they were going to buy or not? And I think I pointed out, what we did was rallied back up to where we were last May, I believe it was, when we thought China would be buying beans.”

Record Corn Yields in Many States
Despite disease and production issues during the growing season USDA only lowered corn yield by .7 bu. per acre, to 186 bu.That was a disappointment to the bulls and came from record yields in many states.Iowa came in at a record 216 bu. down just 3 bu. from September, Illinois was up 2 bu. to 221 bu., South Dakota was up 6 bu. to 173 bu.

Gulke says the record production in many states was a result of better-than-expected yields offsetting the poor areas. “So, we get all done, you know, you take 10 or 20 bu. out of Nebraska at about 8 million harvested acres, I think, roughly. That’s 160 million bu. That’s like spitting in the wind when you’re talking about a 16-billion-bu. crop. So, the odds of them lowering it to 184, or even a 182.That wasn’t in the cards.So, the odds of us getting a bullish report were slim and none.”
He also attributes the record yields to strong plant populations and heavy test weights. “If you get 58-pound corn that’s 5% more. So, 5% times 180 bushels an acre is another nine bushels.”

However, Gulke says with the high feed and residual in the report at 6.1 billion bu. and the 100 million bu. increase in corn exports, that still leaves USDA room to lower yield in the January report.

Did Farmers Miss Their Opportunity to Sell Soybeans?
Gulke says with the report not living up to expectations soybeans corrected Friday and could move lower without confirmation of Chinese purchases.Will soybeans go back to test or fill the gap area left after the trade framework was announced?He says sometimes after a sizeable rally a market will retrace 50% of the gains just to reach equilibrium.“So, you could take a look at where we were about $1.40 ago.We might retrace 50 or 70 cents from the highs of today. So, I can’t second guess with you where we’re going to go,” he adds. Gulke says the important thing is to be in the right position when that happens and to be proactive.

Proactive Marketing
Gulke says they had bought some cheap soybean options, going into the report just in case it was bearish and did more proactive marketing on Friday.“We actually bought puts today on some grain that we hadn’t sold but instead put in on farm storage. So, we bought $10.40 puts and sold the calls we had. So, we used the CME’s money to buy the puts on the downside and that worked very well,” he explains.

With global traders not interested in being involved in the grain markets Gulke says options were affordable.“They got as cheap as I can remember. I mean, when you can buy upside protection for a dime, there’s something crazy going on,” he adds.

Gulke says they did the same in the corn market. “Options were like five or six cents, so we bought upside calls.We paid a penny and a half for some two or three days ago as well.So, when do you get a chance like that you take it.Of course we made profits on them very quickly, some of those options doubled in price in just a couple of days,” he says.That is money that farmers can use this fall to buy fertilizer or other inputs.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

How Should Farmers Prepare For the November USDA Reports?

Sat, 08 Nov 2025 01:39:58 GMT

For the week December corn was down 4 ¼ cents, January soybeans were 1 ¾ higher, December soybean meal fell $4.50, December bean oil gained 100 points, December soft red winter wheat lost 6 ¼, December hard red winter wheat was 5 ¼ lower, December hard red spring wheat gained 5.

Grain markets were mostly lower for the week, except soybeans, as they started their preparation for the Crop Production and WASDE reports on November 14.

Expectations for Corn in the November Crop Production and WASDE
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says private estimates for national corn yield range from 182 to 186. However, he expects a bearish report because yields may be higher than expected. “I’m also hearing from clients in Iowa, Minnesota and other places that say their yields turned out better than they thought and better than average,” he says.Those were the same areas where farmers had weather adversity from too wet to too dry and anticipated corn yields would fall below their APH or Actual Production History. Gulke says it would take a yield of 180 bushels or less to have a price impact but even if yields fall to that level, he doesn’t think USDA will acknowledge it until the January report.

USDA also has to incorporate the additional 207 million bushels of old crop corn found in the September Quarterly Stocks Report into the 2025-26 balance sheets.“Remember we were talking about 1.3-billion-bushel old crop corn carryout and then they found 200 million bushels of non-feed usage.Which if it was just added on to the 2025-26 ending stocks estimate would be over 2.3 billion bushels,” he says.

In the November WASDE Gulke says there will be some adjustments to corn demand and maybe even a few surprises.“I have a feeling that the demand side could be less than what we though, and that would then offset some of the reduction in the yield,” he says.

In the final report in January Gulke says USDA will be able to see what the usage was for the first quarter of the 2025-26 marketing year and that includes feed and residual.“They’ll then back themselves into that feed and residual estimate after they know what exports are and ethanol use is, and add the crop size and the carry in,” he explains.

Expectations for Soybeans in the November Crop Production and WASDE
Gulke says he would be surprised if USDA made significant yield reductions on soybeans in the November Crop Production report in fact, he thinks the agency could even raise yield a half bushel or more because of the outstanding yields in the Northwest Corn Belt. In addition to his farm in Northern Illinois, Gulke also farms in Northern and Southern North Dakota.“And of course in the Northern half of North Dakota we got hit with hail and some frost. However, in the South yields were good,” he describes.

The market will be closely watching how USDA incorporates the purchase agreements from China into its soybean export projection and how the market reacts to those estimates.Gulke says the soybean market started to rally before the announcement of the trade framework with China.“As part of the price discovery process soybeans dropped to $9.78 when the market thought China was going to be out of the market but with China expected to purchase 12 MMT of soybeans that’s when we rallied $1.20.”So, he says the market will now need to see the purchases and have them reflected in USDA balance sheets to hold these price levels.

How Should Farmers Prepare for the Reports?
Gulke says heading into the November reports farmers should be taking some protection through options strategies because there is a large amount of uncertainty tied to USDA’s data dump.He says they sold all of their corn and soybeans and bought cheap calls.“We bought $4.30 December calls for about $.06 and that’s about where corn is now, about $4.28 and change. So, we’re about even money on 40% of the crop,” he explains.

On soybeans, Gulke says they had the same strategy and he advises farmers to also be proactive because it’s rather cheap insurance in case USDA provides any surprises in the WASDE or Crop Production report.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Soybean Chart Breakout Signals More Price Upside

Sat, 01 Nov 2025 16:01:41 GMT

For the week December corn was up 8 ¼ cents, January soybeans soared 55, December soybean meal was $27.50 higher, December bean oil lost 159 points, December hard red winter wheat gained 23, December soft red winter wheat was up 21 1/2, December hard red spring wheat was down 7.

Soybean Surge on China Deal
January soybeans had a higher weekly close and chart breakout hitting levels not seen in 13 months. It came on the heels of this week’s trade framework between the U.S. and China which lowered tariffs and included ag purchases.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the reaction in the soybean market following the meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi in South Korea created a volatile reaction in the soybean market.

The meeting between the two leaders wrapped up overnight Wednesday and both left without any press briefing. So, he says shortly after that the market was down $.20, with wheat and corn also sharply lower. “It looked like the market was disappointed that President Trump got on a plane back to the states and there was no news. So, the market speculated that no deal had been reached,” he explains.

However by around 6:30 am Thursday the soybean market rallied sharply as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent appeared on Fox Business News and broke the story that the U.S. and China had agreed on a trade framework that included commitments to buy 12 MMT of U.S. soybeans in 2025 and 25 MMT annually through 2028.

Market Reaction Technically Significant
Gulke says the market reaction was technically significant because during the course of the $.56 trading range in soybeans Wednesday night into Thursday the market tested the bottom side of the range and a long-term gap area, and it held.

Gulke says the market won’t go down and fill that chart gap. “If this market is any good at all and China is going to buy soybeans into January then you should ever go back down and test that area again. You tested it the night of the meeting and that was sufficient,” he says.

After Bessent provided details of the framework the market quickly reversed higher with soybeans testing the high of October 2024 according to Gulke. “So, if you look at October of 2024, the market discovered a price based on the fundamentals. At that time no one thought China wasn’t going to buy any soybeans in the fall of 2025 and that left a void. So, now we filled that void with 10 to 12 million metric tons. We’ve gone back to normal, and we went right back up to that chart level again,” he explains.

Soybeans Have Chart Breakout Friday
Gulke says the market built on that chart strength into Friday and closed above the October high. “On Friday we did close above the level, but for months, if you recall, we talked about how important it was, to me, at least, that we closed above that harvest high,” he adds.

With the China deal as the catalyst the soybean market has now accomplished that technical objective and made new highs for the move. So, he says it will probably move a lot higher.

WASDE November 14 Could Confirm Tighter Soybean Balance Sheet
USDA announced on Friday it will be releasing a WASDE on November 14. Gulke says that report will be important for the market to see how USDA incorporates the renewed China business but he expects it will confirm the tighter balance sheet for soybeans because of stronger demand and lower yield. which could also be price supportive.

“I think it’ll offer some opportunities for producers so just be prepared. If you’re holding a lot of grain in on farm storage you are long the market. If you haven’t priced any soybeans watch the price of options because they are probably going to get pretty volatile now, but there should be opportunities to cover yourself either way. Not having a plan is not a plan,” he says.
For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Soybeans Move Higher Amid Void of USDA Data

Sat, 25 Oct 2025 00:42:30 GMT

For the week December corn was up ¾ cents, March corn was ½ higher, November soybeans gained 22 ¼, January soybeans were 23 ½ higher, December soybean meal tacked on $13.10, December bean oil lost 86 points, December soft red winter wheat gained 8 ¾, December hard red winter wheat was up 10 and December hard red spring wheat was also up 10.

Void of USDA Data “Refreshing”
With the government shutdown the grain market has been void of USDA data with the exception of the export inspections.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he hasn’t missed the government data including the October WASDE.
“It’s kind of refreshing to have to do some due diligence, it kind of forces you to do some research and look at things and that’s what we’ve had to do. I’m not so sure we haven’t been led astray a little bit by you know unintended consequences of maybe bad data that we got or late data we get out of USDA on exports, usage, acreage and so forth.So, now we’re kind of on a level playing field,” he explains.

Private firms have been doing their own research, and Gulke says the Gulke Group has been doing its own research for years on supply and demand.It leaves him wondering when someone is going to say the market can do without a lot of this government data.Besides, he says by the time the information is released its old news, and the market has already digested it.

With China not buying U.S. soybeans, Gulke says there have been a lot of questions about whether or not other smaller customers could step in to make up for the lost business.Their analysis shows that the situation is not as dire as some in the trade are making it out to be.

“There’s hope out there than we might get through this without China and I’ve been talking about it for decades that the U.S. needed to diversify and get rid of that big gorilla in the room because it was going to come back to bite us one day,” he says.

Does the U.S. Get a Deal with China?
Despite that, soybeans led gains for the week, up over 23 cents on the January contract on hopes of a deal with China.
Gulke says China is a big enough country and they use enough that they don’t want to lose the U.S. as a business supplier for raw materials like soybeans.

“Because when you look at Argentina and Brazil, you know, they’re kind of fragile government -wise and you really kind of need two suppliers so that you can make the other ones honest when they get kind of out of kilter, you know, and want to fleece you when it comes to selling or importing stuff. So, you really need another partner if you’re China,” he explains.

Will China Buy U.S. Soybeans?
Gulke says Trump has dug himself a hole, “And he can’t get out of it with money, and he has focused in on soybeans and helping the soybean farmer and so, he’s got to come back with something.”
He contends that China could buy U.S. soybeans and use the excuse that they are buying them for their strategic reserves because they can store U.S. soybeans better.“They can’t store Brazilian beans,” he says.

So Gulke is watching who buys soybeans.He says if the crushers are doing the purchasing they will buy for their immediate needs, and they can buy out of Brazil.“But if a government agency buys it, that’s usually for storage and for a long-term type thing for strategic reserves,” he adds.

He thinks China needs soybeans to bridge the gap between when the U.S. harvest ends and when Brazil’s harvest starts.
“There’s some talk that they need about 10 million metric tons. And, you know, that’s about 300 million bushels. And that’s about the deficit that would really help us,” he says.

So, he expects a positive outcome of next week’s meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi on the sidelines of the APEC Summit in South Korea. And even without China, Gulke says soybean prices have now rallied back close to where they were last year. “So that’s a good move,” he concludes.

Harvest Wrapping Up
On Friday, Gulke was wrapping up the harvest on his farm and delivering corn right out of the field on a basis contract.
“And about 80 % of the corn that we’ve delivered has not been covered. We’ve been hedged and bought it all back in previous conversations we had when we felt the harvest hole was in. So, we picked up some money and now we’re subject to the futures. We got to, we fixed the basis, which I didn’t like, but we had to do it in order to get a delay and fixing the price. So that helped a lot,” he adds.

Gulke says they’ve seen enough price appreciation through holding the grain in on-farm storage to help pay for trucking and some other expenses.“So, we’re still positive,” he says.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Corn and Soybean Charts Confirming Harvest Lows

Sat, 18 Oct 2025 01:18:47 GMT

For the week December corn was up 9 ½ cents, March corn was 7 ½ higher, November soybeans gained 12 ¾, January soybeans were 13 ½ higher, December soybean meal soared $6.00, December bean oil was up 116 points, December hard red winter wheat was 8 ½ higher, December soft red winter wheat tacked on 5 ¼, with December hard red spring wheat down 3 and December cotton up 45.

Corn and soybeans posted higher weekly closes for the first time in a handful of weeks.

Technical Action in Corn Impressive
The price action in corn was impressive to Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, in part because it came during the gut slot of harvest when farmers are gathering a predicted record crop.

He says the technical action in corn has been eerily similar to 2024 when the December contract took over as the lead month from September and gapped higher.

“We did it again this year and many people were saying we’d go back down to fill that gap because the corn crop is so big. We did leak down lower thanks to the Quarterly Stocks Report showing 200 million bushels more corn and retested that area with this week’s low but turned around and found support without filling that up gap,” he says.

Gulke further explains that the market retested that chart area, which was a point of price discovery, to see if that up gap was worthy of holding.

What Fundamentals Keep the Corn Rally Alive?
If the market can gap higher again on Monday morning with some bullish news like a large corn export sale, he says it would be significant.

Gulke says the other fundamental catalyst to continue the rally in the corn market comes from the lack of farmer selling.

“You and I talked a while ago about the fact there was 40% less on-farm grain stored than in the previous year and so we can restrain from selling corn out of the field.Corn is also coming out of the field at 15% moisture, so you don’t have the drying,” which he adds is allowing harvest to advance at a more rapid pace than normal.

Gulke is watching to see how big the grain piles get at elevators because if they don’t materialize that will signal to him that farmers had more storage capacity than the market anticipated and the farmer isn’t going to sell at low prices.

“And if I’m a buyer I better get my buying shoes on because I may not get it any cheaper,” he says, “especially if the WASDE report in November proves all of the low estimates on corn yield are correct.”

Soybeans Also Close Higher as Farmer Selling Dries Up
Soybeans also posted a higher weekly close as trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased.

Gulke says that helped the soybean market recover in addition to the lack of farmer selling as harvest wrapped up in parts of the Corn Belt.

Soybean Processors Caught Short?
It also appears soybean processors may have been caught short of inventory according to Gulke.

“We found out that ADM was offering free storage or free DP (Deferred Pricing).If you bring your soybeans to an Illinois processor through October, you don’t have to pay any storage and you don’t have to price those beans until October 2026.I’ve never heard of anything like that,” he says.

He says that’s a very bullish signal because it shows that in the heart of harvest the processors are not getting enough soybeans delivered to run their plants.

Or is China Buying?
Although he also speculates it could mean end user buying and he’s not ruling out the possibility that China is in the market buying.In fact, he says the basis has been improving on the Gulf.

Meanwhile, where Gulke farms in Northern Illinois he says elevators are keeping the basis wide and he anticipates it will stay that way until harvest finally wraps up.

Yet, he thinks President Trump could still pull a rabbit out of his hat and surprise the market with some China soybean purchases.

“We need to be ready and then see if it is a big deal or not,” he says.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Will Corn and Soybeans Retest the Early Harvest Lows?

Sat, 11 Oct 2025 00:48:01 GMT

For the week December corn was down 6 cents, March corn lost 6 ¾, November soybeans dropped 11 ¼, January soybeans fell 13 2/4, December soybean meal fell $3.60, December bean oil lost 8 points, December soft red winter wheat was down 16 ¾, December hard red winter wheat fell 14 and December hard red spring wheat dropped 9.

Grain and oilseed markets were down Friday and for the week after escalating trade tensions between the U.S. and China resulted in President Trump scraping his meeting with Chinese President Xi at the end of this month.

With No China Deal Will Corn and Soybeans Retest the Lows?
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the trade news was a game changer for the market.

After calling an early low in the corn and soybeans, he says Friday’s news and trade action has changed his opinion and he has turned bearish.

“I don’t think we’ll go back and test the lows, but we may very well go back and test those gap areas,” he says.

Farmers Will Need to Settle for Aid
Gulke says President Trump showed his hand with Friday’s negative trade developments and so he thinks farmers will have to settle for a trade aid payment from the government rather than getting their income from better grain market prices tied to a China trade deal.

“When you’re dealing with politics and especially this president who is, you know, leaves us kind of guessing, that makes it a little more difficult. And I think today was the final straw that convinced me that we’re talking about solving our problems on agriculture with a check again and you can do that with $20 billion probably,” he estimates.

He also expects President Trump to push more policies that will support domestic demand, including biofuels.

“I think we kind of proved we can do without China in the corn and now we got to do it in the soybeans and the answer is there. It just takes the President’s signature,” he adds.

Gulke Mitigates Risk
Gulke says they were flexible this fall and decided not to store grain on the farm because his operations has scaled down to less than 1,000 acres and he can re-own the crop on paper.

He says for their client they tried to get ahead of the collapse in soybeans and mitigate risk.

“We decided Thursday to sell all the beans that we had an open storage, so 100% of our beans are gone. If you can’t store them on farm, and if you’re storing them on farm, then you need to do some capturing a carry, which means you need to be short some July futures, at least something so those grain bins don’t become a graveyard for the grain,” he explains.

Many producers, according to Gulke, are undersold as they’ve been storing and waiting for a rally tied to a possible China deal, but he says both corn and soybeans had sell signals on the charts again on Friday.

“Before the crash right after the open we advised guys to get everything sold in the soybeans that they couldn’t store and price it and they did that.And then we also sold 20% of our corn that was hedged we put into cash contracts, whether you were storing it on farm or off farm, but mainly for the off-farm folks, it just doesn’t pay to store it,” he says.

Gulke says the cash market did not provide any opportunity as the local elevators had a wider basis for January for both corn and soybeans than at harvest.

“In other words, my cash price for January delivery wasn’t much better than what it is now. And they want to charge me $.22 to $.37 a bushel to store it.You could tell there was a hesitancy that something was going on there,” he adds.

So, he says they made more corn sales by selling July futures, selling December futures and even increasing cash sales for hedges in 2026.

“We’re pretty well covered.I don’t like the prices, but I know the risk that is out there, and the risk is just too great,” he says.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Where Did USDA Find the Additional Corn in the Quarterly Stocks Report?

Sat, 04 Oct 2025 00:23:17 GMT

For the week December and March corn were 3 cents lower, November soybeans gained 4 ¼, January soybeans rose 4, December soybean meal was $4.00 higher, December bean oil lost 14 points, December soft red winter wheat fell 4 ½, December hard red winter wheat lost 8 ½ and December hard red spring wheat was 8 lower.

Bearish Surprise in USDA Quarterly Stocks Report

USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report on Tuesday provided a bearish surprise for the corn market.

The agency raised stocks to 1.532 billion bu. which was a 207 million bu. over their corn ending stocks projection of 1.325 billion bu. in the September WASDE.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group says the report left a bearish corn inventory outlook.

“The 207 million bu. increase in carry-in to the 2024-25 marketing year increased new crop carryout to 2.317 billion bu. maybe even 2.5 billion bu. depending on their export estimate.”

Where Did All the Corn Come From?

Gulke says it shouldn’t have come as a shock as the debate over supply and demand the past 18 months was already contentious.

However, the quarterly stocks make the data driven reports all the more questionable and come at a terrible time for some farmers, adds Gulke.

“We were halfway expecting it because they had a huge number in there for this last marketing year for feed and residual. And we thought that they would trim that some,” he says.

Added to 2025-26 Corn Carryout

The debate over corn yield -- whether it is 188 bu. per acre, 186 or less --is a moot point say Gulke, as USDA found about 2 bu. per acre more already in the bin.

“So now the market will need to see a bigger reduction in 2025 corn yields just to get back to a 2.1 billion bu. carryout,” he explains.

November WASDE?

Gulke says with the government shutdown farmers may not see the shock this month with USDA delaying or even cancelling the October WASDE Report.

He isn’t sure it will even show up in the November WASDE.

“I think USDA could kick the can down the road until the December Quarterly Stocks Report to see just how much we have used in the last quarter of the year to be able to prove or disprove the feed and residual is as high as they think it is,” he says.

Until then the market will rely on private estimates according to Gulke.

Best Hope for a Corn Rally?

So, the best hope for a bigger rally in the corn market may be a South American weather problem.

“The reversal we saw in soybeans after the Trump talk with China excited the soybeans, but it didn’t do a lot for corn.So, we need another catalyst.

In the meantime, he says the government has elected to kick the can down the road regarding the benefits of tariffs for agriculture, if any, opting to send checks again to tide farmers over.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

How Should You Market Soybeans With China Still Out of the Export Market?

Fri, 19 Sep 2025 23:44:29 GMT

For the week December and March corn were down 6 cents, November soybeans fell 20 ¾, January soybeans lost 20 ½, December soybean meal was down $4.60, December bean oil fell 155 points, December soft red winter wheat was 1 lower, December hard red winter wheat lost 7 ½, December hard red spring wheat was off 4.

Soybeans Selloff on China Disappointment

November soybeans were down nearly $.21 for the week and fell $.12 on Friday after President Trump posted that he and President Xi will meet at a summit in South Korea next month and he will travel to China early next year.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the market was disappointed there was no mention of soybeans as part of those talks which triggered a selloff.

“But as we figured there was a big deal about nothing and so if there are any ag purchases at all that will come in January,” he says.

Repeat of Phase I?

Even then Gulke says if the details are anything like the Phase I trade accord with China it may not amount to much if it includes the same “commercial considerations” clause regarding Chinese purchases of ag goods.

“It said yes, we’ll buy beans, we’ll buy agriculture products from you if we need them, if the price is right, and we’re not going to throw our newfound friends under the bus, which means Brazil and Argentina perhaps and others, where they’ve invested tons of money in infrastructure,” he explains.

The end result, according to Gulke, was China bought less soybeans from the U.S. than promised and they bought less corn as well.

Soybeans Break Down Technically

Gulke says technically the soybean market was already sending warning signals of a possible selloff on Thursday.

“Thursday, we got a signal that says something is up and maybe the party’s over. And so, we sold beans, we’re 100% sold in beans. This time I bought November put options at the money, which has been very unbecoming to me over the last 30 years. I don’t like them, but sometimes they’re worth it and they were cheap,” he explains.

Gulke was also nervous about being short futures ahead of the call between President Trump and Chinese President Xi because of the uncertainty of the outcome.

Soybean Storage Strategy

Without China in the export market farmers may be tempted to sell soybeans off the combine and look at purchasing options for a re-ownership strategy.

However, Gulke says if farmers have on-farm storage they should consider storing soybeans for several reasons.

Commercial storage costs have skyrocketed
On-farm storage will allow farmers to improve soybean moisture levels and avoid dockage.
On-farm storage will buy time to allow soybean basis to narrow.
On-farm storage will allow farmers to take advantage of the carry in the soybean futures.

Gulke says he is storing soybeans on his farm for the first time in 15 years.

“We pulled out the grain auger to put soybeans into a bin if not just for the carry but also to pick up a few points of moisture and avoid discounts from the elevator,” he explains.

With the dry finish to the soybean crop, he says farmers selling beans may get docked for each half to 1% soybean moisture levels fall below 15%.

“So putting that grain in a bin, and if you put it in properly and take it back out, it’ll blend itself out right now it looks like you’ll make 60 to 70 cents a bushel,” he says.

2026 Soybean Sales?

This week Gulke says they also made their first sale for November 2026 soybeans.

“And if you look at the balance sheets or the profit and loss sheets. - I’m not so sure as I’m going to plant any corn and that’s true with a lot of people because it doesn’t pencil real well. So, there will be a lot of beans,” he adds.

For more information on marketing strategies contract Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Is USDA's Corn Demand Projection Too High?

Fri, 12 Sep 2025 22:26:31 GMT

For the week December corn was up 12 cents, November soybeans rallied 19 ¼, December soybean meal gained $4.60, December bean oil was up 94 points, December soft red winter wheat was 4 ¼ better, December hard red winter wheat was up 9 ½ and December hard red spring wheat tacked on 4 cents.

December corn was up for the week with most of the gains coming on Friday in reaction to the September WASDE and USDA’s 2.1 bu. per acre yield cut on corn.

However, Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says USDA also confirmed record demand at 16.1 billion bu. with a 100 million bu. increase in exports to 2.975 billion bu.

He says the record corn demand estimate struck him as one of the most important parts of the September report as it confirmed the main reason December corn was able to put in an early harvest low on Aug. 12 and was higher on the September report day.

Is Corn Demand Too High?

Many in the marketplace speculate that the 16.1 billion bu. figure is already too high.

They point out that if expected yield cuts continue in corn through the final report in January, UDSA will just offset that by lowering demand.

Gulke disagrees and says USDA had no choice but to raise exports based on the current pace.The 2024-25 marketing year just finished up and sales were nearly 30% above last year.

“We’ve gone from poor exports a couple of years ago, increased them and compounded them, like you compound money in the bank. We’ve gone up about 20% a year, and now in the export sales report, we’re ahead of where we were last year,” he explains.

He says lower prices encourage demand, but the U.S. is price competitive with other exporters in the global marketplace, including Brazil.

End Users Finding Corn a Good Value

It’s not just export customers that are finding good value in U.S. corn at these price levels according to Gulke.
He says ethanol and livestock producers are also buying U.S. corn.

As one cattle feeder told me, “There’s a lot you can do with $4 corn in the world.”

USDA Finally Acknowledging the Strong Corn Demand

Gulke says what’s more important is that the government is starting to acknowledge the strong corn demand.

“They denied it for a while.So now I think they may be trying to get ahead of the curve.Remember last year ending stocks fell nearly 1 billion bu. from the start to the end of the marketing year.So I don’t think they want to miss it again,” he adds.

Trade Seeing a Paradigm Shift

Gulke says global trade is seeing a paradigm shift and how business is going to be done in the world.

“And this is of course, partially to blame or benefit Trump,” he says.

However, he thinks the trade strategy is starting to bear fruit and if the U.S. gets a deal with China the grain market could really benefit.

WASDE Confirms Low in the Corn Market

The bottom line, according to Gulke, is the corn market put in a low on Aug. 12 and built on that in reaction to the September report even in the face of record 16.814 billion bu. crop.

“The market went up.You respect the marketplace and what it does because how the market ends on a report day like this is more important than the report itself,” he explains.

How High Can Corn Prices Run on Strong Demand, If Yield Cuts Continue?

Gulke says so far, he’s watching the July highs for a signal that corn prices will continue to rally.

“We’re not there yet, but if we do that, it’s pretty significant especially when you’re harvesting a really big crop,” he explains.

He’s not sure how high corn prices could go but he says farmers need to be positioned to take advantage of rallies through smart marketing and on-farm storage.

“To me the risk is on the upside,” he says.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Corn Market Resilience Continues

Sat, 06 Sep 2025 16:42:41 GMT

For the week December corn lost 2 ¼ cents, March corn fell 1 ¼, November soybeans plunged 27 ½, January soybeans fell 27, December soybean meal was down $5.00, December bean oil dropped 91 points, December hard red winter wheat lost 14 ½, December soft red winter wheat was down 15 and December hard red spring wheat fell 15.

December corn futures were lower on Friday and lost over 2 cents for the week, yet still managed to close above the 50-day moving average.

Corn Market Shows Resilience

The performance was a victory, says Jerry Gulke president of the Gulke Group, considering the large infusion of bearish news the corn market had to absorb again this week, including tariff uncertainty and more private estimates of record corn yields.

He says this action continues to confirm the early low in corn set on Aug. 12.

That was the day of the August WASDE report when corn made a new contract low and closed well off that level, a sign of bullish divergence in the face of the bearish record corn yield USDA projected at 188.8 bu. per acre.

Gulke says since then the corn market has rallied nearly $.25 and has shown considerable resilience.

“I am encouraged now that after a month or so of listening to just about every negative fundamental that you could conceive of, I mean, I bet I could pick this week alone probably 10 or 15 things that are negative and fundamentally, and yet the market kept going up.It kept shrugging off even private estimates by StoneX, S&P Global and by Allendale, up near the higher range, close to where the USDA is,” he explains.

Several private firms released their yield estimates this week and most shaved one to three bushels off USDA’s record August yield of 188.8 bu. per acre.

Allendale was at 187.5 bu. per acre, StoneX at 186.9 and S&P Global at 189.1.

Is the Corn Market Focusing Too Much on Supply and the Storage Crunch?

Gulke thinks the corn market has been too fixated on supply and the record crop size.

He points to USDA’s storage data which shows in major corn producing states there is 25 million bushels of storage available for this year’s crop.

“So if you add up 15 billion bu. of corn, four billion bu. of beans, that’s 19 and I don’t know about what we produce five or six billion bu. in the small grains, you know barley and oats and all that stuff. We have enough storage, not maybe all in the right places per se, but we have enough storage to handle the crop,” he explains.

Plus, Gulke says the June 30^th Quarterly Stocks Report showed there’s 47% less corn stored in farmer’s hands than a year ago.

If that wasn’t the case he thinks the market would have seen more farmers selling old crop bushels at the end of August to make room for the 2025 crop.

“We did not see the capitulation that we saw the last day of August last year.In fact, when we went from September to December as the lead contract on Tuesday of this week we gapped higher by a bigger amount than the gap last year which produced a $.70 rally,” he says.

Is the U.S. Corn Crop Getting Smaller?

Gulke says the U.S. corn crop could be getting smaller based on the reports of late season diseases like Southern Rust and Tar Spot and flash drought in parts of the Eastern Corn Belt.

So, the old adage that big crops get bigger may not hold in the September WASDE report but at the same time Gulke’s not sure the yield will come down much, at least this month.

Marketing and Storage Strategy

Gulke is waiting until the September 12 WASDE Report to make the next move in the corn market just in case USDA doesn’t confirm lower corn yields.

“I think our strategy will be to sell cash, which we haven’t sold much of it.Most have been in hedges or hedge to arrive.We might do more cash because I don’t want to store soybeans.If I can see daylight ahead somewhere I would probably start selling cash corn because I don’t want to pay commercial storage,” he adds.

Gulke just finished a Top Producer article about on-farm storage versus commercial storage.

“On-farm storage costs are good compared to commercial storage and you lose big time if you take your grain to an elevator with the wide basis,” he says.

He calculated that by March 1, including the carry in the grain market minus storage, he lost about 36 cents per bushel.
“That’s $72 an acre on 200 bushel corn.And so why would anyone accept that if they can’t find a place to store this stuff?”

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Corn Market Provides Most Bullish Signals in Six Months

Fri, 29 Aug 2025 22:23:14 GMT

For the week December corn was up 8 ¾ cents, November soybeans lost 4 cents, December soybean meal fell $2.50, December bean oil dropped 318 points, December hard red winter wheat lost 1 1/4, December soft red winter wheat gained 7 and December hard red spring wheat fell 12.

New crop corn futures soared Friday to close out the week 8 ¾ cents higher.

Many analysts chalked up the rally to end of month short covering.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the reason corn was higher doesn’t matter as much as the price action.

Corn Market Confirming a Low?

Gulke explains that the September contract went back, filled a gap area and tested last year’s low on the day of the bearish August WASDE.

The market quickly absorbed USDA’s hike in corn yield to 188.8 bu. per acre and increase in harvested acres by nearly 2 million acres.

On report day the market filled a gap area and then closed above that level, which Gulke says was a bullish sign.

Since then, the market has rallied nearly 30 cents off the lows.

“I’ll say it again.I think this technical move confirms a bottom in the corn market.”

Next Week’s Price Action Will be Key

Gulke says next week’s action in corn futures is important because a continued rally could provide the first buy signal in the corn market in over six months.

“It looks about as friendly as I’ve seen it in a long, long time. And we have fundamental information to support that, and that’s in the export market demand side of it, but also a smaller crop,” he explains.

The U.S. Corn Crop is Getting Smaller

Gulke says many in the trade say the corn crop is getting trimmed by disease and dryness which is being worked into prices.

While 186 bu. per acre corn yield would still produce a big crop, it chips away at the ending stocks.

“Every bushel we lose is another 80 to 90 million bushels of production,” he says.

Corn Demand is Being Overlooked

Plus, Gulke says the trade and farmers are discounting USDA’s improved demand projections in the August WASDE, which were up 545 million bu. from July.

USDA has throttled corn exports for the 2024-25 marketing year for several months while total commitments continued to run 28% above a year ago.

However, Gulke says the agency finally acknowledged it in August in their new crop corn balance sheets.

“USDA admitted in August that exports are better than expected for new crop corn and we’re probably still 150 to 250 million bu. too light on exports,” he adds.

Gulke says farmers have been too fixated on the record supplies and have overlooked the strong corn demand and the impact it will have in lifting corn prices.

Plus, he thinks trade negotiations with countries like Vietnam are starting to produce some results in the weekly new crop export totals.

Should Producers Store and Wait for the Corn Rally?

Gulke has long been a proponent of on-farm storage as a grain marketing tool.

This year with the carry being offered in the market, storing grain and trying to capture those higher prices being offered in the deferred corn contracts would make sense.

At his farm, Gulke has built enough grain bins to store 150% of his crop and using a storage and hedge strategy he paid for the bin in just a couple of seasons.

“If you can make $.30 to $.50 on the carry through hedging verses $2.00 per bushel for to build storage you can pay it off in three years. Even with interest charges it’s four years and then after that it’s a cash cow,” he explains.

This year with the storage crunch it will really pay back, he adds.

For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Gulke: Corn Demand May Have Been the Biggest Surprise in the WASDE

Fri, 15 Aug 2025 23:07:04 GMT

For the week September corn was up 1 cent, December corn was down ¼, September soybeans surged 54 ½, November soybeans soared 55 cents, December soybean meal gained $9.30, December bean oil was 70-points higher, December soft red winter wheat lost 8, December hard red winter wheat lost 8 ¾ and December hard red spring wheat down 8.

Corn closed nearly steady for the week, which was a victory considering how bearish USDA supply projections were in the August WASDE.

Corn Yield Surprised Gulke

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says he was as surprised with USDA’s 188.8 bushel per corn acre yield as anyone, but he thought the market handled the news remarkably well.

“I was pretty shocked at the at the yield number. I didn’t think that would be there.We did our own survey and I wouldn’t print what we found. We found this unbelievable amount acres and corn and we trimmed it back to little.As it turned out we were very close to what the USDA finally found out,” he says.

Corn Acres Also in Question

Gulke says the additional 2 million corn acres USDA reported was also a surprise and a head scratcher.

The accuracy of the figures would have been easier to dispute if the agency had not used the certified acres from the Farm Service Agency (FSA) as well as data from the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS).

With technology FSA can now provide the acreage data in August, yet it still leaves doubts about this government data according to Gulke.

Corn Demand the Biggest Surprise in the WASDE

Gulke thinks the corn market absorbed the record yield and acreage data because the USDA also raised demand by 545 million bushels and pushed usage to a record 16 billion bushels.

To him that was the biggest surprise in the WASDE.

“You know, I’ve talked about that for months, that if the tariff thing really works the end result will be expanded markets and demand.USDA said we’re not going to assume anything on tariffs good or bad unless we see some proof.Well, all of the sudden they increase demand with very strong exports and higher feed and residual.I mean figure that one out,” he says.

That tells him that USDA is starting to include some of the added export demand from recent and upcoming trade frameworks in their projections.

However, he remains skeptical, “So are we saying now that there’s enough evidence out there by the deals that have been done that it looks like a lot of little countries or medium sized countries are going to buy some from us. My opinion is that the pie is only so big in the world.”

Strong Technical Performance in Corn

Gulke says December corn made new contract lows on report day hitting a low of $3.92 and essentially retested the 2024 low nearly $3.85.

However, in the process it filled a gap area on the charts and then closed above that level.which may have confirmed an early harvest low.

“We filled the gap that I said had to hold and it held.Then on a weekly basis closed nearly unchanged for the week like you said. Holy mackerel, for me this is an awful bullish response,” he explains.

Is 188.8 Bushels the Biggest Corn Yield?

Whether or not the low is retested will depend on whether or not the crop gets bigger in the September report keeping in mind the old adage that “big crops get bigger.”

Conversely, without field surveys the August report Gulke says USDA may have overstated the yield and some of the problems that are being seen including pollination issues, tip back and disease pressure.

“I have doubts about the 188 bushel yield,” he exclaimed.

In fact, Gulke says it is more likely that the soybean yield can achieve the record 53.6 bushel per acre average than the corn making 188.8 bushels per acre.

“Just because the corn may have gotten hurt when it first got started out and so forth and it got too much water in Iowa not enough in Illinois. And now farmers are going into their field to scout and finding pollination issues in the corn from high night time temperatures and other problems that may trim yield,” he says.

However, he says the problem is it may take until January to find out.

For more market information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Corn Ends Lower For the Week but There Was a Silver Lining

Fri, 08 Aug 2025 22:29:46 GMT

For the week September corn was down 6 ¾ cents, December corn fell 5 ¼, September and November soybeans both dropped 2 ¼, September soybean meal gained $5.40, September soybean oil lost 177 points, September soft red winter wheat fell 2 ¼, September hard red winter wheat slid 1 3/4, September hard red spring wheat gained 4 cents.

Corn Holds August 2024 Lows

The corn market closed lower on Friday and for the week but there was at least one silver lining in the technical action.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says corn although December made new contract lows on Wednesday the victory was the lows set in August of 2024 held.

Last year the corn market put the low in August 28 as the market capitulated on massive farmer selling before harvest and first notice day, plus the prospects of a large crop.

“We turned around and the market gapped higher in September and then we had about a six-month rally in corn of about 70, 80 cents.I believe it topped out in February.This week we went back down to that very same level again and it held,” he explains.

So, he says there is a good probability history could repeat itself in 2025.

“September is 20 cents discounted to December. So, at the end of August now, when we switch to first notice day for September, we’ll switch to December as a lead contract in the continuous month. That’ll give us another gap like we did last year,” he adds.

If that happens Gulke says producers need to take advantage of it.

Is The Most Bearish News Priced into the Corn Market?

The pressure in the corn market through July and early August has been tied to the fear of record yields.
Private yield estimates have ranged from 184 to 190 bushels and the market has been pricing that in ahead of USDA’s yield and production estimate to be released in the Aug. 12 WASDE.

USDA’s August projection doesn’t include field surveys and may not fully account for pollination and disease issues or crop damage tied to hail, flooding and wind from two recent derechos.

Tariff and trade uncertainty also loomed around the Aug. 7 tariff deadline but that has also come and gone.
So, Gulke says it is possible the most bearish news has already been factored into the market.

Corn Demand is Picking Up

The good news is that corn at the $4 level has represented value for end users and demand has picked up.
“Weekly exports on corn were nearly 3 MMT, I can’t remember the last time I saw a number that high.We’ve also been getting some fairly regular flash sales,” he explains.

Is Corn Demand Enough to Offset Record Yields

Gulke says the problem is demand is not robust enough to offset a record yield above 184 bushels, which is the average trade guess ahead of the WASDE.

“That would be a three-bushel yield increase which translates to 240 million bushels of extra corn the market has to digest,” he states.

If the yield is even higher than 184 bushels, it could push ending stocks over 2 billion bushels.

“The problem is if that’s true and we don’t raise demand, then we’re going to have carryover that’s going to plague us as well,” he says.

Marketing Advice

Gulke says going into August his firm was about 75% to 80% hedged, even instances of 100% hedged in corn going into August.
“And we lifted hedges on corn for a profit but have yet to go long in the futures or options.So, I’m naked in the market with no coverage,” he says.

At this point he says it is unlikely the U.S. will not have a monster crop and so farmers that did not sell any grain yet must look at their options including capturing the carry in the market.

“So, what you’ll hear now is say, well, if he didn’t sell any grain earlier, and you have to sell it out of the combine, be prepared for a re -ownership. And they’re going to say to sell the cheap corn and buy a call. You know, that’s just throwing good money after bad, I think. So, there’s other ways of doing it, but it takes on -farm storage. That’s why we do it.”

For more information contract Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Did Corn Make an Early Harvest Low?

Fri, 18 Jul 2025 22:22:24 GMT

For the week September corn was 12 ½ cents higher, December corn was up 15 ½, August soybeans gained 23 ½, November soybeans soared 28 ½, December soybean meal added $5.20, December soybean oil gained 194 points, September hard red winter wheat was up 4 ¾, September soft red winter wheat was 1 ¼ higher, September hard red spring wheat lost 19.

Grains ended mostly higher for the week with corn making a bullish weekly reversal.

Is the Low in the Corn Market?

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the technical action in corn this week signals an early harvest low in the market.

(Jerry Gulke )

He says the bullish turn started on Monday, July 14, “When corn made new contract lows with the spot month September hitting $3.91 ¼ only to reverse higher and put in a key reversal.”

Looking at a weekly continuation chart for corn Gulke says there was a gap area left in August of 2024 between $3.78 to $3.98 and the market got down to the middle of the gap but didn’t completely fill it before moving higher.

For Gulke that signals an early low in the corn market.

“So, the market went down there and said here’s what happened last year. I don’t think it’s going to work this year. This looks like pretty cheap corn given where we’re at. We’re in July, we’re not August. And there are some other things from too much rain and now the pollination problem that create anxiety,” he explains.

According to Gulke that caused the market to determine there was no weather premium in corn, triggering some buying and short covering.

Is This a Weather Rally?

Gulke says the reversal in corn happened before meteorologists started forecasting a ridge of high pressure for the week of July 20.

This change in the weather pattern will bring heat and drier conditions into the Corn Belt the week of July 20 when a good percentage of the corn is pollinating.

However, if the weather forecast stays hot and dry and the market gaps higher on Sunday night and closes higher on Monday, Gulke says it will be a full-blown weather market.

“The market looks ahead. It doesn’t look at, you know, 12 hours or what happened overnight. It looks at the 6-10 or the 10–15-day forecast,” he says.

Lack of Farmer Selling

USDA’s Quarterly Stocks Report on June 30 also showed farmers holding a much smaller percentage of the crop in on farm storage this year versus 2024.

Gulke says that may have also contributed to an early harvest low in the corn market.

“I think you asked me if that would mean less farmer selling than last August, and if could we put in an early harvest low as a result? I think the market answered that for now,” he explains.

Gulke Buys Calls as “Cheap Insurance”

Gulke says to mitigate the weather risk his firm used an option strategy he rarely uses.

“We were over 100 % sold at one time, took profits, resold about half of it again and we’re short about 35% to 40% of our corn and beans again. So, we bought call options and anybody that listens to me for the last decades knows I don’t like buying options because I think it’s like throwing money out the window as they expire worthless,” he says.

However, he advises farmers to be selective and use the call as “cheap insurance”.

“Options are good in time like this when we can buy the call for four cents and have the right to be long September corn at $4.05 and it had seven days left in it as of today.”

If they are right, Gulke says they can exercise the calls and be long the market to take advantage of the weather rally.

If Weather Trims the Crop Size How High Could Corn Rally?

Gulke says the market may be perceiving that with weather stress and pollination concerns the size of the corn crop is shrinking but that won’t be confirmed until the August or more likely the September WASDE.

He says the market is continually in the process of price discovery based on current fundamentals, which also include demand and the progress made on trade deals.

So he’s not sure how high corn prices will go. “But I do know what we’re not going to do.We’re not going to go back and make new lows,” he adds.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .

Corn and Soybeans Fall as "Rain Makes Grain"

Fri, 11 Jul 2025 23:15:28 GMT

For the week September corn was down 24 ¼ cents, December corn fell 24 ¾, August soybeans plunged 51 ¼, November soybeans lost 42, December soybean meal fell $8.60, December bean oil lost 102 points, September soft red winter wheat was 11 3/4 lower, September hard red winter wheat fell 11 ¾, September hard red spring wheat sank 35.

The grain markets had an ugly week lower with new contract lows in corn on Friday, even after a slightly friendly July WASDE.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the grains markets were pressured by ideal weather.

Grains Fall as “Rain Makes Grain”

Many areas of the Corn Belt continue to see timely rains. Even Gulke’s farm in Northern Illinois, which had been dry, received some much needed rain this week.

“We got anywhere from two inches to five and a half inches,” he explains.

He says that should translate improved crop conditions in Illinois after the fairly low crop ratings this week at 68% good excellent on corn and only 54% on soybeans.

While USDA did not increase corn yields in the July WASDE, many models this week were raising corn yields well above their 181 bu. trend line prediction. So, the market was already looking ahead in anticipation of increased yields in future reports.

August is when USDA is likely to make its first adjustment to yield and Gulke thinks it will be a conservative increase of one to two bushels on corn but that will still increase the carryout.

Gulke says that’s why the market ignored the cut in corn ending stocks in the report to 1.3 billion bu. for old crop, and 1.66 billion bu. for new crop.

“I doubt that 1.6 billion gets reduced much, and it may even trickle higher,” he says.

USDA Acknowledges Strong Demand in WASDE

He says at least the agency acknowledged the stronger old crop demand by raising corn exports 100 million bu. to a record 2.8 billion bu.

“They did lower the feed and residual, which everybody expected, and with cattle on feed less, that’s probably going to happen a little bit more,” he explained.

However, current demand won’t be enough to offset the larger crop size according to Gulke, especially with renewed fears of tariffs and the lack of progress on trade deals.

“We have India, for example, and others that are pushing back on the idea about embracing agriculture because they have their own agriculture people to support. India is one of them. Canada would be another one. And so when you hear some of the details that are released, agriculture is kind of missing,” he adds.

Gulke says even the improved outlook for domestic soybeans demand driven by more favorable biofuels policy is currently not enough to make up for lower export demand without a deal with China.

Will the Market Bottom Early in Anticipation of a Record Crop?

Gulke doesn’t think corn or soybean prices need to go as low as they did in 2024 and the market could bottom earlier.

He says it’s partially because demand is picking up at lower prices or value levels, but also because of who is holding the grain this year.

Commercial interests own more old crop grain versus the farmer and that will help give farmers more leverage on price with the new crop.

“When it comes time for holding the grain when we first start harvesting that capitulation won’t be there to the extent it was before,” he says.

However, he says the lows probably aren’t going to happen in July unless the weather makes a 180 degree turn.

For more information contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com .