World Pork Expo

3 Factors Fueling Americans' Obsession with Protein

Fri, 06 Jun 2025 15:48:10 GMT

Meat is having a moment, and the craze for more protein is benefiting protein across the board. The fact cattle prices continue to crush records is proof of that, as well as the robust demand for pork.

“I am still bullish of dairy. I’m bullish of beef. I’m bullish of pork and poultry,” says Dan Basse, AgResource Company . “I think as you think forward, I see the next two or three years as being the years of protein. It’s that side of the fence in agriculture that’s going to do very well.”

Basse’s optimistic outlook on protein hinges on one major factor: consumers’ ability to pay for it.

“I’m still bullish of protein, until we see the labor force start to shrink in the United States, and I start to see disposable income coming down. Again, there’s not a period looking backward in history that I can find where disposable income on a personal basis has risen this quickly from 2020 to 2025,” he says.

“Meat protein, not just pork or not just beef, but meat is having a moment. I’m an economist, so I have concerns on the macroeconomic front, but it is exciting to be in an era where the public’s desire for meat protein is growing,” says Glynn Tonsor, a professor in the Department of Agricultural Economics at Kansas State University.

People Are Eating More Protein Than Ever Before

Cargill’s 2025 Protein Profile found people are eating more protein than ever before. The report found 61% of consumers report increasing their protein intake in 2024, which is up from 48% from 2019.

According to Cargill, the shift in shoppers’ preferences toward whole, minimally processed foods, is giving protein a chance to shine.

“It’s really important to remember the U.S. public wants meat protein,” Tonsor says. “There are a lot of signs. We are in a pro protein environment. I don’t think there’s issues. I actually think there is a celebration about the taste and the eating experience and so forth for all the major proteins.”

A Slight Shift in May’s Monthly Meat Demand Monitor

Tonsor also authors what’s called the Monthly Meat Demand Monitor (MDM) , which tracks U.S. consumer preferences, views and demand for meat. The first half of the year, the MDM continued to show consumers’ growing demand for protein, but in the report in May, it did show a slight shift.

“The biggest takeaway from the MDM would be we have two conflicting patterns,” says Tonsor. “One is the public really wants meat protein, but the macroeconomic environment is giving us some pause. So, we continue to see strong signals people want protein. Taste is leading that decision, so that’s good and very supportive, but we also see lots of uncertainty on the macro-economic front. So, trade discussions, elevated unemployment, inflation concerns and so forth. Those are not supportive of meat demand, so those are the two trends that are fighting the way out.”

Tonsor points out the May MDM showed a pullback in consumers eating away from home, like in restaurants, but showed a boost in retail demand, which would be grocery stores.

“But part of that is a substitution away from restaurants,” he says. “And that’s across the board. It’s not just pork or beef or chicken. It’s all of them that we track, so I do think it is a headwind that is growing here in 2025.”

Tonsor says if confidence in the economy rebounds, and tariff discussions ease, the restaurant piece of meat demand could quickly recover, especially considering we’re entering the summer months, where meat demand is typically higher.

3 Major Drivers Behind the Protein Craze

And even with the pause in restaurant demand in May, Tonsor says the push for consumers to eat even more protein doesn’t seem to be going away, and it’s being driven by three major factors.

“More people are having meat as an ingredient rather than center of the plate. So, it’s coming across as more convenient. It’s an input,” Tonsor says. “Also younger folks in particular are quite physically active, and their demand for protein and that broader lifestyle is elevated.”

Those two factors are strong drivers of meat demand, especially in the younger crowd. But another supportive piece of the growing demand for protein is related to weight loss drugs.

“We have a GLP-1 effect, so Ozempic, Mounjar and so forth, in the MDM, we put out a report earlier this year, showing maybe 15% of the U.S. public is using the GLP-1,” Tonsor says. “That’s a higher end, but that’s what we estimate. And if you are on those products, you’re actually consuming beef, pork and chicken more frequently.”

He says all of those things add up to support the growth in meat demand.

“It’s the income and the future status of my finances is mainly the only headwind at the moment, and that’s why I keep reiterating that concern,” Tonsor says.

Demand is What’s Pushing Cattle Prices to New Highs

It’s not just the hog industry that’s benefiting from the strong demand, both domestically and with exports

Cattle prices continue to crush records. But according to one veteran cattle analyst, it’s not historically tight cattle numbers pushing prices higher, it’s the strong demand.

“This price increase that we’re experiencing in the industry is demand-driven,” says Randy Blach, CEO of CattleFax. “Our per capita supplies were flat last year. They’re going to be flat again this year. And yet we’ve had a market that’s gone from a $1.75 to $2.25. That’s all been demand driven with what we’ve seen throughout the industry.”

The incredible demand is pushing beef demand to its highest level in nearly 40 years.

“Beef demands that are a 37-year high,” he says. “And I think when people think about demand, obviously quality has been the key to that. We’ve seen the quality of the animals being produced has increased substantially.”

As record-high cattle prices also push the cost of beef higher, that would push consumers to eat more pork and chicken in the past. But it’s a trend Tonsor is not largely seeing this time around.

“We see some of that, but not nearly as much as you might think. So, there’s less of that adjustment than historically we would have seen,” Tonsor says. “This is 100% Glynn’s opinion, but I think habits are a little stickier. Persistence of an item in your meal is a little sticker than in the past. Meat is an ingredient, not just the center of the plate. Higher beef prices have not elevated chicken demand as people have expected, and I think it’s because the consumer substitution effects, they exist, but they’re not as strong as they were 20 years ago.”

As consumers crave more protein, it’s a bright spot for all of livestock with many hopeful this isn’t just a trend but a permanent fixture on consumers’ plates.

AgDay Markets Now: Jeff Hoogendoorn Says Lean Hogs Are Close to a Bottom

Thu, 06 Jun 2024 02:59:40 GMT

Grain and livestock futures all end lower again Wednesday with commodity wide fund selling.

Hogs make new lows for the move again.

Speaking from the World Pork Expo, Jeff Hoogendoorn, Professional Ag Marketing, says the cash and cutouts have been stagnant and so has the Lean Hog Index which is trading around $92. So, the futures market has continued to take all the premium out of the market to trade down to the index.

He says the futures had built in a great deal of optimism about the cash early in the year, but demand has not been as strong domestically as expected which is weighing on both cash and cutouts.

“The entire market move on the futures side was optimism in anticipation of huge rally in both cutouts and cash markets back there in April. Today we took all of that premium out,” he says.

“The Mexican peso has also strengthened against the U.S. dollar and that is also a bearish factor,” he says as Mexico was the top export customer for the U.S. in 2023.

Hoogendoorn says the futures made new contract highs and peaked around April 10 and have steadily lost $16 to $18 since then as funds have been liquidating their once record long positions.

He thinks technically there is support around $90 in the June and July contracts, so he thinks the slide is about over. “Plus, the futures are setting right on the index and so we’ve done enough damage there,” he says.

Hope for Pork Profitability in 2024 is Fading

Tue, 04 Jun 2024 23:55:31 GMT

U.S. pork producers just came off the worst 18 months of negative profit margins in history, even 1998. There was optimism when hog futures rallied to contract highs at around $110 this spring that 2024 would be a more profitable year. However, that hope has faded.

Pork margins started off 2024 in the black, but spring and summer month hog futures have set back $15 to $17 from the contract highs set in mid-April.

Steve Meyer, senior livestock economist, Ever.Ag Insights, says cash and cutouts just stalled the last six weeks, pulling down the lean hog futures and cutting into break evens and profit levels.

“It has gotten progressively worse since March,” he says. “Back in March, the model I have - which is based on historical Iowa State University estimated costs and returns - had about $10 per head, and that’s for probably the low cost 25% of producers which I think the Iowa State model really represents. So, that was about $10 per head back in March. That model last week had minus $4, and it’s mainly been a reduction on the revenue side because of the selloff we’ve seen on the lean hog futures market.”

Meyer says the cost of production has also increased.

“We had about $85 in that cost model back in March and almost $88 now. So, the uncertainty of getting this crop planted has kind of put a little fuel on the corn and soybean markets and cost us some,” he says.

Cash and the Lean Hog Index have also stagnated as pork cutouts have been flat during April and May. Meyer says cutouts usually stage a seasonal rally of $6 to $8 in the spring. So, it’s not tied to hogs supplies but instead soft demand.

“Export demand has still been pretty good, so I don’t think that’s where it is,” Meyer explains. “If we look at the real per capita expenditures, pork real capita expenditures are down almost 5% year to date through March. That tells us that the softness we see is on the consumer side in the United States.”

He’s concerned about the slower demand with supplies ramping up into 4th quarter as weekly hog slaughter pushes over 2.7 million head and squeezes processing capacity.

This could mean additional pressure on cash and wholesale pork values ahead.