USFR Weekly Recap - September 23-24, 2017

September 23, 2017 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
SEPTEMBER 23-24, 2017


HEADLINES
WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN,  AND HERE'S WHAT WE'RE WORKING ON FOR YOU OVER  THE NEXT 60 MINUTES. THE LATEST RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX REVEALING CONTINUED FINCANICAL STRESS ON FARMS... A C. WHEN YOU PUT LIVESTOCK IN WITH GRAINS IT GETS BETTER.  WE'LL TELL YOU WHY LOAN DELINQUINCY RATES ARE  SURPRISING.  AS RICE HARVEST RACES ON, IT'S A PROMISING NEW  TRADE DEAL THAT HAS THE INDUSTRY'S SIGHTS SET ON  CHINA... WELL THERE'S NO DOUBT THE CHINA NEEDS RICE  WE'LL TELL YOU HOW THE DEAL A DEECADE IN THE  WORKS COULD CHANGE THE INDUSTRY.  SHE'S A DAIRY FARMER AND A DIETICIAN, CONNECTING  HER FARM TO CONSUMERS IN A UNIQUE WAY.  <"I THINK THE BIGGEST THING IS BUILDING A RELATIONSHIP WITH  PEOPLE. LET PEOPLE COME OUT AND SEE WHAT YOU DO.">   AND SHE'S A REAL FACES OF DAIRY.  IN JOHN'S WORLD.. <ARE YOU MID-SIXZED FARMS DISAPEARING" MAYBE NOT. ><U.S. FARM REPORT - BROUGHT TO YOU BY THE DEPENDABLE, LONG  LASTING, CHEVY SILVERADO.>

FEDERAL RESERVE COULD HIKE INTEREST RATES
NOW FOR THE MARKET RELATED NEWS, THE FEDERAL  RESERVE PAINTING AN OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK OF THE  OVERALL ECONOMY THIS WEEK, GIVING SIGNS OF ANOTHER POSSIBLE RATE HIKE THIS YEAR.  AFTER NEALRY A DECADE OF THE FEDERAL RESERVE  TRYING TO RESTORE A COLLAPSOING ECONOMY, THE  FED CHANGING ITS TUNE. ON WEDNESDAY, THE CENTRAL BANK SAID IT WILL  START WITHDRAWING  A PORTION OF THE TRILLIONS OF  DOLLARS IT INVESTED AFTER THE 2008 FINANCIAL  CRISIS, A SIGN THE FED IS CONFIDENT THE ECONOMY IS  GROWING.  THE FED SAYS DESPITE THE PLAN OF ATTACK,  INTERST  RATES ARE ON HOLD FOR NOW, BUT EXPECTING TO  RAISE RATES ONE MORE TIME THIS YEAR.   THE FED HAS WHAT'S REFERRED TO  AS A DUAL MANDATE, WHICH IS TO BALANCE ON ONE SIDE ECONOMIC  GROWTH BUT ON THE OTHER SIDE PRICE STABILITY. WE HAVE STARTED TO  SEE ECONOMIC GROWTH PICK UP AND THERE APPEARS TO BE SOME  MOMENTUM, AND I THINK THAT'S PART OF THE REASON WHY WE HAVE  SEEN SEVERAL INCREASES IN INTEREST RATES OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF  YEARS.> KAUFFMAN SAYS ON TEH PRICE STABILITY SIDE OF THE  EQUATION, THE FED HAS AN INFLATION GOAL OF 2  PERCENT, WITH INFLATION RUNNING BELOW THAT THIS  YEAR.  AN ONGOING INVESTIGATION IS STILL UNDER WAY  REGARDING ALLEGED INNTELLUCTUAL PROPERTY  VIOLATIONS BY CHINA. 

CROP PROGRESS
MOTHER NATURE TURNING ON TEH HEAT THIS WEEK...  WHICH COULD HELP PUSH THE IMMATURE CORN CROP  TO THE FINISH LINE. HERE'S A MAP OF ALL THE STATES THAT ARE  CURRENTLY BEHIND IN CORN MATURITY. USDA'S LATEST REPORT SHOWING ILLINOIS IS 20 POINTS  BEHIND, MINNESOTA 22 POINTS BEHIND NORMAL. THE ONLY STATE NOT LAGGING NORMAL IS KANSAS,  AND THAT STATE IS RIGHT ON PACE WITH AVERAGE  WITH 61 PERCENT OF HTE CROP MATURE.  THE LACK OF MATURITY ALSO MEANS HARVEST IS  RUNNING BEHIND. R USDA SHOWS CORN HARVEST IS 7 PERCENT COMPLETE-- 4 POINTS BEHIND 5 YEAR AVERAGE. BUT ONLY A POINT  BEHIND LAST YEAR.  NORTH CAROLINA IS THE FURTHEST ALONG, WITH 68  PERCENT OF THE CRPO HARVEST.  FOLLOWED BY TEXAS, WEHRE 67 PERCENT OF THAT  CROP IS OUT OF THE FIELD.  AND ITS THE FIRST WEEK FOR USDA TO REPORT  SOYBEAN HARVEST. THE AGENCY SAYS 4 PERCENT IS ALREADY HAVESTED-  A POINT BEHIND AVERAGE.  

MILK PRODUCTION, PROTEIN EXPORTS
MILK PRODUCTION CONTINUES ON ITS IMPRESSIVE  GROWTH PACE. USDA'S LATEST NUMBERS SHOW  PRODUCTION FOR AUGUST TOTALED 18 POINT 1 BILLION  POUNDS, A 2 PERCENT INCREASE FROM 2016.  PRODUCTION PER COW HITTING THE HIGHEST SINCE  REPORTING STARTED IN 2003, AT 1 THOUSAND 948  POUNDS. A 26 POUND INCREASE FROM LAST AUGUST.  NEW NUMBERS SHOW FEEDYARDS SEEING 44 STRAIGHT WEEKS OF POSITIVE MARGINS, BUT THERE'S A LARGE  DISPARITY BETWEEN FEEDYARD AND PACKER PRICES.  THE STERLING PROFIT TRACKER SAYS FEEDYARD  CLOSEOUTS AVERAGED 25 DOLLARS PER HEAD LAST  WEEK, A 10 DOLLAR DROP FROM THE PREVIOUS WEEK,  AND BEEF PACKERS BROUGHT HOME 180 DOLLARS PER  HEAD LAST WEEK, A DECLINE OF 15 DOLLARS, BUT STILL  29 DOLLAR ABOVE YEAR AGO LEVELS. 

WEATHER
THOSE ARE THE HEADLINES...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER. MIKE, I DON'T  KNOW ABOUT OTHER VIEWERS, BUT IN NORTHERN  INDIANA, IT FELT MORE LIKE JULY THIS WEEK THAN IT  DID IN JULY.  NO DOUBT TYNE, IT WAS HOT AND HUMID ACROSS MOST OF THE MIDWEST EXCEPT THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS. IT IS GOING TO CHANGE.  IT IS THAT TIME OF YEAR YOU EXPECT IT TO. LET'S TAKE A LOOK AT THE DROUGHT MONITOR AND SEE WE'VE EXPANDED THE DRYING AREAS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES IT'S STILL VERY DRY BUT NOT AS DRY IN WESTERN DAKOTAS AND INTO EASTERN MONTANA YOU CAN SEE A MONTH AGO IT WAS ALREADY GETTING VERY DRY AND WITH EXTREME EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN MONTANA OR WESTERN DAKOTAS. THAT HAS SHRUNK UP A LITTLE BIT BUT WE STILL HAVE A WAYS TO GO IT TAKES A WHILE TO GET OUT OF A DROUGHT SITUATION LIKE THAT SO LET'S GO DAY BY DAY THIS WEEK. THERE'S THE HEAT HUMIDITY GOING TO CONTINUE. HUGE DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE SITTING OVER THE TENNESSEE AND A HIGHER RIVER VALLEYS AS WE START THE WEEK. I DO WANT TO POINT OUT WE'LL HAVE TO WATCH MARIA ALONG THE EAST COAST. THINGS CAN CHANGE WITH THE FORECAST AS OF NOW THOUGH IT LOOKS LIKE MOST OF THAT WILL BE OFF SHORE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY UP AND DOWN THE PLAINS STATES WESTERN PLAINS STATES. BY WEDNESDAY THAT FIRST FRONT COMING INTO THE GREAT LAKES CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BACK INTO TEXAS WITH SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. SECONDARY FRONT COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND THEN BY FRIDAY THAT SECONDARY FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WITH SOME RAIN SHOWERS BEHIND IT. AND YEAH THERE WILL BE SOME SNOW IN THE COLDER SECTIONS BEHIND THAT SYSTEM THERE BUT MILD TEMPERATURES MORE TYPICAL FOR THIS TIME OF THE YEAR ACROSS MOST OF THE LOWER 48. NEXT FRONT OUT IN THE NORTHWEST COULD BE A WET ONE AS WELL. WE'LL TALK MORE ABOUT OUR LONGER RANGE FORECAST IN OUR NEXT HALF HOUR.

TEASE
HOW COULD THE FED RAISING RATES AGAIN IMPACT  THE MACRO ECONOMIC PICTURE? TOMMY GRISAFI AND  BRIAN SPLITT JOIN ME NEXT. 

ROUNDTABLE 1
BACK NOW ON U.S. FARM REPORT THIS WEEK BRIAN SPLITT AND TOMMY GRISAFI. I MEAN THIS WEATHER THIS WEEK HAS BEEN AMAZING. IT FELT MORE LIKE JULY THIS WEEK THAN IT ACTUALLY DID IN JULY. AROUND HERE ANYWAY BRIAN CAUGHT A SUNBURN. LOOK AT THIS THING. YOU KNOW IT'S JUST I DON'T I WONDER WHAT EFFECT THE BEANS. YOU KNOW I TALKED TO SOME GROWERS AND THERE'S ALL THESE BEANS ESPECIALLY COMING HERE, THEY'RE STILL GREEN OUT THERE SOME OF THESE BEANS. BUT THEN THERE'S OTHER GROWERS WHO JUST COME IN A LITTLE SMALL THE BEANS ARE A LITTLE SMALL HARVEST AND MAYBE THAT'S SOMETHING THAT'S FUELING THE MARKET. YOU KNOW WE NEED THIS KIND OF PUSH SOME OF THE CROP ALONG RIGHT. WE KNOW THAT IS CORN CROP IS PRETTY IMMATURE. BUT AS WE'RE HEARING SOME OF THESE EARLY HARVEST RESULTS WHAT ARE BOTH OF YOU HEARING BRIAN YOU HAVE CUSTOMERS YOU KNOW ALL ACROSS THE U.S. WHAT ARE YOU HEARING.  WELL I THINK THE GENERAL THEME SO FAR HAS BEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED. AND TYNE, MIGHT I SAY THAT TODAY YOU LOOK BETTER THAN EXPECTED. BUT YOU KNOW THE THING IS RIGHT NOW BETTER THAN EXPECTED AS COMPARED TO WHAT THAT IS COMPARED TO WHAT THE PRODUCER HAS BEEN EXPECTING OUT OF HIS OWN CROP. BUT THE USDA FOR THE LAST SEVERAL MONTHS HAS BEEN TELLING US THAT OUR EXPECTATIONS ARE NOT CORRECT ACCORDING TO WHAT THEY ARE SEEING. SO IS BETTER THAN EXPECTED PRICED INTO THE MARKET BECAUSE WE'VE ALREADY SEEN BETTER THAN EXPECTED FROM THE REST IN THE LAST TWO REPORTS. YEAH I MEAN EXACTLY RIGHT. BETTER THAN EXPECTED IS IS ALL THAT I'M HEARING OUT THERE. SO DOES THE TRADE YOU KNOW IS THAT BETTER THAN WHAT THE TRADE EXPECTS BETTER THAN WHAT THE PRODUCER EXPECTS. YOU KNOW HOW ARE THESE PRICES REACTING RIGHT NOW TOMMY.  WELL THE I THINK IT COULD AFFECT BEANS MORE THAN CORN. SO IF THE FINAL USDA NUMBERS 171 ARE 169 OR 168 WE HAVE SOME STATISTICS HERE. YOU KNOW WE'VE HAD THAT BEARISH AUGUST NUMBER, BEARISH SEPTEMBER NUMBER. I DON'T KNOW THAT IT MATTERS AT THIS POINT. BUT IF BEING YIELDS WERE 1 OR 2 BUSHELS LOWER THEN YOU HAVE A FLYER THEN YOU HAVE A MARKET. BRIAN MENTIONED THE 9.80 LEVEL WHICH HAS SOME STATISTICS ON THAT HOW WE'VE PIVOTED AROUND THAT LEVEL BUT IT'S GOING TO TAKE AN INCREDIBLE AMOUNT OF ENERGY TO GET CORN TO STAY UP AT A LEVEL THAT THE GROWERS ARE HAPPY WITH. BEANS ARE DIFFERENT DIFFERENT STORY AND BEANS.  YES SO LET'S DIVE INTO BEANS. I MEAN WE SAW SOME IMPRESSIVE PRICE ACTION ON THE CHARTS ON FRIDAY. WHAT HAPPENED FRIDAY AND WHAT SIGN DOES THAT GIVE US.  WELL TOMMY HAD MENTIONED AND WE HAD TALKED ABOUT 19 A LITTLE BIT BEFORE THE SHOW AND THAT NINE ENTRY LEVEL BECAME REALLY IMPORTANT AT THE VERY BEGINNING OF THE YEAR. 981 AND A QUARTER WAS A LOW BACK IN JANUARY AND WE DIDN'T TAKE THAT LEVEL OUT UNTIL RIGHT IN FRONT OF THE MARCH PLANTING INTENTIONS AND THAT ALSO ALIGN WITH THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE. WE'VE TESTED 980 BOTH WHEN THE MARKET WAS IN A BULL MARKET BACK IN JULY, WHEN WE TURNED INTO A BEAR MARKET IN AUGUST. AND SO NOW WE'RE BACK ABOVE 980, BACK ABOVE THE 200 DAY MOVING AVERAGE AND SO WHAT I'M HOPING IS THAT PROPELS US, TECHNICALLY WE'RE GOING TO SEE SOME MORE SHORT COVERING SOME TECHNICAL BUYING PROJECTS POSSIBLY UP TOWARDS A 10 17 10 20 AREA. I MEAN WHO WOULD HAVE THOUGHT WHEN THE USDA COMES OUT WITH SOME OF THESE THESE RECENT REPORTS AND WE SEE SOME PRICE ACTION LIKE WE DID AND NOW YOU'RE TALKING IN THE $10 RANGE FOR BEANS. I MEAN DO YOU THINK THIS MOMENTUM CONTINUES TOMMY.  I DO BECAUSE THERE'S A MONSTER. CHINA IS JUST A MONSTER IN MEXICO CAME IN FOR BEANS THIS WEEK AND IT'S A LOT EASIER TO PUT A $910 BUSHEL OF SOMETHING IN A BOAT THAN IT IS TO $275 BUSHELS OF CORN. AND SO ALL THE THINGS YOU COULD DO WITH A BEAM TO BRING IT BACK TO YOUR HOME COUNTRY AND FEED AN ANIMAL. THE NUMBERS MAKE MORE SENSE TO IMPORT A BEAN. THERE'S PLENTY OF WHEAT IN THE WORLD AS A FEED. THERE'S PLENTY OF CORN AROUND. THERE'S A STORY IN BEANS. ANALYSTS HAVE BEEN WRONG FOR YEARS ABOUT HEY WE'RE GOING TO HAVE THIS BIG CARRY OUT. SIX HUNDRED MILLION FIVE HUNDRED MILLION. AND THEN YOU GET TOWARDS THE END OF THE YEAR AND WE'RE ONLY 400 MILLION THEN MAYBE THE BUSHELS COME IN ONE BUSHEL LOWER AND WE'RE 300 MILLION AND THEN SOMETHING HAPPENS IN SOUTH AMERICA AND WE'RE OUT OF BEANS, AND YOU KNOW WE'RE DEFINITELY NOT RUNNING OUT OF ANYTHING. BUT I DO REMEMBER ABOUT FOUR OR FIVE YEARS AGO WHERE CLAYPOOLE INDIANA WENT $5 OVER BID FOR BEANS THREE DAYS BEFORE HARVEST. WELL WE DON'T HAVE THAT ENVIRONMENT RIGHT NOW. SO THE BASIS IN BEANS IS PRETTY WIDE. THE FUTURES ARE RALLYING. BUT I NOTICE WITH MY CLIENTS FOR EVERY DAY FUTURES GO UP 15 YOU GO CHECK YOUR CASH MARKET IT ONLY WENT UP 10.  OH YEAH, I'VE HEARD A LOT ABOUT BASIS THIS FALL. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CHINA YOU KNOW U.S. TRADE REPRESENTATIVE THIS WEEK KIND OF TALKING ABOUT HIS SIGHTS ARE SET ON CHINA, LOOKED AT CHINA AS KIND OF A HURDLE FOR THE U.S.. YOU KNOW THERE'S KIND OF SOME NEGATIVE RHETORIC AROUND CHINA RIGHT NOW. DO YOU THINK THAT ANY OF THAT WILL HAVE A RIPPLE EFFECT INTO OUR SOYBEAN EXPORTS TO CHINA OR DO THEY JUST NEED BEANS RIGHT NOW.  YOU KNOW I DON'T THINK CHINA CAN AFFORD TO NOT BUY U.S. SOYBEANS. THEY CONSUME SO MANY SOYBEANS THAT THE REST OF THE WORLD CANNOT PRODUCE ENOUGH BEANS WITHOUT OUR PRODUCTION INVOLVED. NOW THAT MAY AFFECT SOME OF THE TIMING OF THEIR PURCHASES SO THEIR IMPORT PROGRAM YOU KNOW WILL VARY BETWEEN NORTH AND SOUTH AMERICA. BUT RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT CONCERNS ABOUT PLANTING AND BRAZIL AND THE LATER THEIR PLANNING GOES THE LATER THEIR HARVEST IS GOING TO GET AND THAT MAY PUSH MORE EXPORT DEMAND INTO OUR BOOKS.  ALL RIGHT. WE TOOK A DEEP DIVE IN SOYBEANS. WE NEEDED TO TAKE A QUICK BREAK BUT WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL KIND OF DO THE SAME WITH THE CORN MARKET SO DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK WELL BEFORE THE BREAK WE TALKED ABOUT THE MARKETS WE KIND OF JOKE ABOUT THIS BETTER THAN EXPECTED RHETORIC THAT WE'RE HEARING BECAUSE THAT'S REALLY WHAT'S COMING OUT OF FIELDS RIGHT NOW, BUT WITH CORN I MEAN I AM HEARING A LOT OF PRODUCERS SAY IT'S NOT LAST YEAR'S YIELD BUT IT'S BETTER THAN WHAT I EXPECTED THIS YEAR. SO WITH THIS CORN MARKET, HOW MUCH DO WE REALLY NEED TO SHAVE OFF OF THAT BEFORE WE COULD SEE A POSITIVE REACTION IN PRICE. WELL I KNOW A LOT OF TIMES AND THEY SHOWED TIME AND BRIAN WE ALWAYS TALK ABOUT THE GROWER, BUT YOU'VE GOT TO FLIP THAT HAT AROUND AND PUT YOUR END USER HAT ON. AND RIGHT NOW IS THE OPPORTUNITY FOR THE END USER TO BUY AS MUCH CORN AS THEY CAN. WHEN YOU LOOK AT CORN OUT WITH THE CARRY IT GETS A LOT MORE EXPENSIVE AND SO IF YOU'RE AN END USER AND YOU NEED CORN, IT'S ON SALE. AND AS THE MONTHS GO ON YOU KNOW AS AN END USER, EVERY MONTH THAT GOES BY YOU'RE GOING TO PAY MORE FOR CORN. AND SO UNFORTUNATELY WHAT I SEE HAPPENING IN CORN IS THAT WEAK HANDS ARE SELLING IT TO THE STOCK STRONG HANDS. BUT WHEN YOU LOOK AT D.C. AND CORN AT $4 AND THEN PROBABLY NO. 18 BEANS AT $10. THE STRUCTURE OF THE GRAIN MARKET WITH LOWER FERTILIZER PRICES AND THE CHANCE TO GET LOWER CASH RENTS,DOESN'T LOOK THAT BAD FOR NEXT YEAR. IF YOU TAKE ACTION BUT YOU HAVE TO TAKE ACTION. BUT FROM A PRODUCER STANDPOINT. WE DON'T LIKE THOSE PRICES BEING ON SALE. RIGHT IF IT'S GOOD FOR THE END USER IT'S NOT GOOD FOR THE PRODUCER. SO WHAT NEEDS TO HAPPEN IN ORDER FOR US TO SEE BETTER PRICES FOR THE PRODUCER, WHAT NEEDS TO CHANGE IN THIS CORN MARKET? WELL EFFORTS FOR CORN THIS STORY MAY NOT BE DIRECTLY CORN. YOU KNOW RIGHT NOW WE'VE GOT WHEAT PRICES ARE COMPETITIVE AND WHEAT HAS BEEN MAKING NEW HIGHS FOR THIS PARTICULAR MOVE. WE'VE BOTTOMED OUT TWO DAYS BEFORE CORN AND AS FAR AS THE LOWS WERE MADE. SO AS WHEAT CLIMBS HIGHER SOYBEANS ARE MAKING NEW HIGHS FOR THE MOVE. SO YOU KNOW AS TOMMY AND MENTIONED YOU KNOW WE HAVE TO THINK FORWARD AND LOOK AT ACREAGE ALLOCATIONS AND IF FOR THE OTHER TWO MARKETS CONTINUE TO GO HIGHER ON THEIR OWN STORY THAT MIGHT DRAG CORN A LITTLE BIT HIGHER AS WELL. AND YOU GET A LITTLE TECHNICAL STORY IN HERE. IF IF CORN CAN GET OVER 362 BUSHEL RIGHT NOW THAT'S A MAJOR WE'D BE HIGH. I THINK YOU HAVE SOME SHORT COVERING AND POTENTIALLY THAT COULD PROJECT CORN UP NEAR 380. I THINK IF WE DO SEE THAT AND YOU'RE GOING TO HAVE TO TAKE A LOOK AT THE CARRY IF YOU HAVE CORN IN YOUR BIN THAT'S GOING TO GIVE YOU MOST LIKELY OVER $4 BASIS THE JULY CONTRACT AND YOU HAVE TO TAKE SOME ACTION THERE.  SWITCHING GEARS THE MACRO PICTURE THE FED THIS WEEK COMING OUT TALKING ABOUT THAT THE OVERALL ECONOMY IS IN GOOD HEALTH AND LOOKING AT KIND OF RESTRUCTURINGS AND THINGS IF WE DO SEE THE FED RAISE RATES AGAIN THIS YEAR WHAT TYPE OF EFFECT WILL THAT HAVE DOWN THE LINE. I THINK IT'S GOOD TO GET BACK TO A NORMAL INTEREST RATE BUT THE TOOLS THAT USUALLY WHEN YOU HAVE RISING INTEREST RATES BECAUSE THERE'S WAGE INFLATION AND WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF WAGE INFLATION WE HAVE A HARD TIME FINDING PEOPLE WANT TO WORK BUT THINGS SEEM TO BE BALANCE AND WHAT'S HAPPENING WITH THESE HURRICANES ACTUALLY AS WE'VE NOTICED SOME OF OUR ECONOMIC DATA COME DOWN FROM ALL THAT LACK OF SHOPPING AND SPENDING ALL THAT MONEY THAT WASN'T SPENT. I THINK OUR ECONOMY COMES OUT OF THE BOX NEXT YEAR JUST WRONG AND WE HAVE TO REBUILD HALF THE STATE OF FLORIDA A CHUNK OF TEXAS. THERE'S JUST IF YOU WANT A JOB IN AMERICA YOU CAN GET ONE. INFLATE RATES HAVE TIME BEEN ARTIFICIALLY HELD DOWN FOR SEVEN EIGHT YEARS. AND AT ONE POINT THAT WAS HELPING THE FARMER IT'S NOW SINCE HURTING THE FARMER. THEY CAN GO BORROW A BUNCH OF MONEY THEY CAN GO BORROW A MILLION DOLLARS PRODUCE 900000 DOLLARS WORTH OF STUFF AND GET A LOAN TO DO IT AGAIN NEXT YEAR. SO THERE'S CHEAP MONEY OUT THERE. BUT AS WE KNOW FROM PEOPLE WHO BUY TOO MUCH GREEN EQUIPMENT OR EQUIPMENT OR WHATEVER YOUR FAVORITE EQUIPMENT IS YOU CAN GET IN TROUBLE BUYING STUFF AT LOW INTEREST RATES.  WHEN WE LOOK AT THE DOLLAR YOU KNOW AND I'VE TALKED TO SEVERAL ECONOMISTS THAT WANT TO FOCUS ON THE WEAKER U.S. DOLLAR AND HOW THAT COULD POSSIBLY IMPROVE EXPORTS IN THE NEW YEAR WHAT DO YOU SEE HAPPEN WITH THE U.S. DOLLAR.  WELL I MEAN RIGHT NOW THE DOLLAR HAS BEEN IN A REALLY AGGRESSIVE DOWN TREND AND SOMETHING THAT WE HAVE NOT SEEN THAT WE'VE SEEN IN PREVIOUS YEARS IS THAT TIME WHERE A WEAK DOLLAR MEANS STRONGER COMMODITIES. NOW YOU KNOW RELATIONSHIPS AND MARKETS DO CHANGE. AND IT'S NOT THAT EASY ANYMORE WHERE THE DOLLAR DOWN MEANS IT MEANS STRONG COMMODITIES. BUT MORE RECENTLY IN LET'S SAY THE LAST 12 MONTHS WE'VE ACTUALLY SEEN STRONGER GRAIN PRICES TIED TO A STRONGER DOLLAR. SO I DON'T KNOW IF THAT MEANS YOU KNOW THE BUYERS ARE CONCERNED THE DOLLAR CONTINUES TO GO UP THAT THEIR PURCHASING POWER STARTS TO DECREASE. BUT YOU KNOW WE'LL SEE HOW IT GOES. LESS THAN A MINUTE LEFT. REAL QUICK. WHEN WE LOOK AT THESE MARKETS KIND OF STAGNANT PRICES VOLATILITY CREATES OPPORTUNITY BUT WE HAVEN'T SEEN A LOT OF THAT LATELY SO WHAT'S THE BIGGEST MISTAKE YOU SEE PRODUCERS MAKE WITH THE MARKETS RIGHT NOW.  REAL QUICK IF THEY DO HAVE A FUTURES AND OPTIONS ACCOUNT WHEN VOLATILITY WHICH WE'RE LIKE A 10 11 YEAR LOW RIGHT NOW AND SOME OF THE OPTIONS CONTRACTS SELLING VOLATILITY AT RECORD LOW VOLATILITY CAN GET YOU IN TROUBLE. WE'VE SEEN THAT HAPPEN A FEW YEARS AGO WITH FOLKS IN BEANS.  BRIAN YOU KNOW I THINK YOUR ATTITUDE CAN BE THE DIFFERENCE BETWEEN BEING IN AN ORDEAL AND BEING ON AN ADVENTURE. AND I THINK WE SHOULD ALL MAKE SURE WE'RE STAYING ON AN ADVENTURE TOGETHER AND NOT BEING IN AN ORDEAL RIGHT NOW.  YEAH GOOD POINT. ALL RIGHT. WHEN WE COME BACK WE'LL GET THEIR CLOSING THOUGHTS ON THE SHOW DON'T GO ANYWHERE.

MARKETS NOW
WELCOME BACK. TIME NOW FOR CLOSING THOUGHTS BRIAN. YOU KNOW THE MARKET HAS DEALT WITH A LOT OF BAD NEWS RECENTLY. WE'VE HAD BEAN YIELDS INCREASING TWO REPORTS IN A ROW, A AND YET WE HAVEN'T BEEN ABLE TO TAKE OUT AUGUST LOWS MUCH LESS THE JUNE LOWS THAT WERE MADE PRIOR TO SUMMER. WE'VE HAD YIELD INCREASE IN CORN, AND YET THESE MARKETS ARE HOLDING THESE LOWS AND WE'RE STARTING TO SEE SOME BUYING INTEREST COMING IN. SO I DON'T THINK WE WANT TO GET TOO DOWN ON OURSELVES RIGHT NOW. YOU KNOW LET'S KEEP AN EYE ON THINGS IF YOU HAVE A CONCERN ABOUT DOWNSIDE MAYBE USE SOME CHEAP OPTIONS TOMYM HAD MENTIONED THAT VOLATILITY IS LOW WHICH MEANS OPTIONS AREN'T CHEAP. ALL RIGHT. TOMMY  YOU KNOW I HAVE A CUSTOMERS NAMES TIM AND HE'S SUFFERING HIS 40TH MASSIVE PRODUCTION LOSS EVER. BUT THE TRUTH IS HE GROWS A CROP EVERY YEAR AND HE JUST BOUGHT A NEW PICKUP SO HE'S HAVING A 40TH CONSECUTIVE PRODUCTION FAILURE. ONE OF THE BIGGEST MISTAKES SOME SEE IN MARKETING BUSHELS IS IT'S HARD FOR US TO DO OUR JOB WHEN WE CAN'T GET THE FACTS RIGHT FROM THE CUSTOMER. AND SO WHERE PEOPLE ARE GETTING THEIR NEWS FROM SOMETIMES THERE'S A LOT OF FREE NEWS ON THE INTERNET AND SOMETIMES FREE IS JUST TOO EXPENSIVE.  GOOD POINT. THANKS TOMMY. THANKS BRIAN FOR BEING HERE STAY WITH US. WE'LL BE BACK WITH MORE U.S. FARM REPORT IN A MOMENT.

JOHN’S WORLD
THE REALITY OF A STRUGGLING AG ECONOMY IS  FORCED CONSOLIDATION... BUT WILL CONSILDATION  CONSUME U-S AG? THAT'S THE TOPIC OF THIS WEEK'S  JOHN'S WORLD.  THE DES MOINES REGISTER WAS THE LATEST PUBLICATION TO PUT OUT  AN ARTICLE WARNING OF A DECLINE IN THE NUMBER OF MID-SIZED FARMS.  IT IS HARD TO ARGUE WITH THEIR ANALYSIS EXCEPT WE'VE HEARD IT TOO  MANY TIMES BEFORE. THE OFTEN-PROPHESIZED CONSOLIDATION OF  FARMS INTO GIGANTIC OPERATIONS HAS BEEN A STANDARD PREDICTION IN  FARM MAGAZINES FOR MY ENTIRE CAREER. AND IT'S ALWAYS JUST AROUND  THE CORNER. TO BE FAIR, FARMS LIKE MINE HAVE GOTTEN BIGGER, BUT NOT AS FAST AS  WE HAVE PERPETUALLY FORECAST. COMPARED TO OTHER SECTORS, SUCH  AS PORK OR POULTRY, GRAIN FARMING IS TAKING ITS SWEET TIME GETTING  HUGE. YOU CAN READ MORE DETAILS ON MY THOUGHTS IN THE LATEST  TOP PRODUCER MAGAZINE, BUT I'LL SKIP TO THE BOTTOM LINE TODAY.  GRAIN FARMS REFLECT FARMLAND OWNERSHIP, MORE THAN FARM  ECONOMICS. IT'S REALLY HARD TO OPERATE HUGE FARMS IN THE ABSENCE  OF HUGE LANDHOLDINGS. WE HAD A RECENT EXAMPLE. A LANDOWNER  WITH A MODEST FARM DIES, AND BEING WITHOUT CHILDREN, SHE LEAVES  HER ACREAGE TO 5 NEPHEWS. IT TOOK EXTRAORDINARY EFFORT FROM THE  ONE NEPHEW WHO WAS FARMING THE LAND TO BUY OUT OR RENT THE  OTHER FOUR SHARES. THIS DISAGGREGATION OCCURS CONSTANTLY ACROSS  FARM COUNTRY. MOST GRAIN FARM ACRES ARE RENTED, NOT OWNED.  WHEN OWNERS CHANGE, THE OPERATOR OFTEN CHANGES TOO. SO NOT  ONLY DOES OWNERSHIP FRACTURE, TENANCY IS UP FOR GRABS. ALSO, MY IMPRESSION IS BIG OPERATIONS DON'T HAVE LONGER LIFESPANS THAN  SMALLER FARMS EITHER. BIG TIME OPERATORS COME AND GO. THERE IS NOT THE SLIGHTEST HINT OF BIG CORPORATIONS OR WEALTHY  INDIVIDUALS AMASSING ENORMOUS LAND HOLDINGS, AND EVEN IF THEY  DID, IT WOULD BE FIELD BY FIELD, NOT IN LARGE TRACTS OF CONTIGUOUS  ACRES. TO GET BRAZIL-LIKE CHUNKS OF US FARMLAND WOULD TAKE NOT  JUST DOLLARS BUT DECADES. THERE ARE FARMS LIKE MINE THAT HAVE  NEVER BEEN UP FOR PUBLIC SALE. THE SIZE OF AMERICAN CROP FARMS WAS PROBABLY MOST STRONGLY  INFLUENCED BY THE LAND GRANT ACT, 150 YEARS AGO. ONCE THE LAND  HAD BEEN DICED UP IN 160 ACRE TRACTS, IT BECAME VERY DIFFICULT TO  REUNITE. FOR ALL OF YOU WHO WORRY ABOUT FEW BIG OPERATIONS TAKING  OVER GRAIN FARMING, TAKE COMFORT IN THE FACT OUR LAND OWNERSHIP  PATTERN MAKES SUCH A FUTURE BOTH DISTANT AND UNLIKELY. THANKS, JOHN.

TEASE
STILL TO COME, AS RICE HARVEST RACES ON, RICEFARMERS HANGING THEIR HAT ON A MAJOR WIN--  OPENING TRADE TO CHINA FOR HTE FIRST TIME EVER.  BUT WITH A FEW HURDLES STILL STANDING IN TEH WAY,  WILL THIS YEAR'S CROP ACTUALLY MAKE IT TO CHINA?  THAT'S THE FARM JOURNAL REPORT AFTER THE BREAK. 

HEADLINES
FROM THE STUDIOS OF FARM JOURNAL BROADCAST,  THIS IS U.S. FARM REPORT.  WELCOME BACK TO U-S FARM REPORT THIS WEEKEND.  WE HAVE MUCH MORE AHEAD.  RICE DEMAND IS GROWING AFTER CHINA SIGNED ADEAL MORE THAN A DECADE IN THE WORKS. THAT'S  OUR FARM JOURNAL REPORT.  SHE'S A HOOSIER WORKING TO CONNECT THE FARM TO  CONSUMERS. AND SHE'S OUR REAL FACES OF DAIRY.  IN CUSTOMER SUPPORT,  JOHN LAID THE GROUND  WORK LAST WEEK, NOW HE'S DISSECTING NAFTA. 

RURAL MAINSTREET INDEX
NOW FOR THE HEADLINES, THE LATEST RURAL  MAINSTREET INDEX SLIPPING TO THE LOWEST LEVEL  SINCE DECEMBER 2016, AS THE REALITY OF LARGER  THAN EXPECTED CROPS ARE STARTING TO HIT THE  COMBINE.  CONDUCTED BY CREIGHTON UNIVERSITY'S ERNIE GOSS,  THE SURVEY EXPLORES FINANCIAL CONDITIONS IN A 10  STATE REGION.  THE SEPTEMBER SURVEY SHOWING THE OVERALL  INDEX REMAINED BELOW GROTH NEUTRAL.  AND  A PRODUCT OF FALLING FARM INCOME, 51 POINT 2  PERCENT OF BANK CEOS SAY THEY ARE RESTRUCTRING  FARM LOANS. RMI ALSO FINDING A 2 POINT 1 PERCENT INCREASE IN  FARM LOAN DEFAULTS. A RATE THAT GOSS DOESN'T VIEW AS ALARMING.   THE BAD NEWS IS LIQUIDITY POSITIONS. THAT'S LOANS AND THE  LOANS INCREASING, THE DELINQUENCIES ARE INCREASING. THE  FORECLOSURES ARE INCREASING, BUT NOT AT A FAST CLIP. THERE WERE  MOVING INSTEAD OF WE'RE MOVING FROM C PLUS, C MINUS MAYBE  INTO THE CATEGORY NOT OFF LIKE WE ARE IN THE 1980S. > GOSS THINKS A WEAKER DOLLAR COMBINED WITH  STRONG EXPORTS COULD HELP THE MARKETS  OVERCOME LARGE CROP SUPPLIES, ULTIMATELY  HELPING PRICES. 

WASHINGTON TAX REFORM
AS TAX REFORM TAKES CENTER STAGE IN  WASHINGTON, FARMERS AND AGRIBUSINESSES KEEP A  CLOSE EYE.  THE AMERICAN FARM BUREAU PUSHING CONGRESS TO  MAKE SOME TEMPORARY PROVISIONS PERMANENT.  . FARM BUREAU SAYS TAX TOOLS LIKE CASH  ACCOUNTING, AND INTEREST DEDUCTIONS FOR SMALL  BUSINESSES ARE VITIAL TO LONG TERM FINANCIAL  PLANNING. "BECAUSE FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE PRICE TAKERS WE NEED THE  ABILITY TO HOLD OUR COMMODITIES OVER FROM YEAR TO YEAR SO WE  NEED THE ABILITY TO STORE OUR CORN IN THE BINS OR HOLD OUR CALVES  OVER UNTIL WE CAN ENSURE A GOOD PRICE IN THE MARKET FOR THOSE.  AND BY USING CASH ACCOUNTING WE CAN DO THIS AND NOT HAVE TO  PAY TAX ON THOSE ITEMS UNTIL WE RECEIVE THE MONEY FOR THEM." SENATE FINANCE CHAIRMAN ORRIN HATCH ADMITTING  THIS WEEK PASSING COMPREHENSIEV TAX REFORM  WILL BE TRICKY. HE SAYS IT'S A COMPLEX TOPIC WITH  MORE CHANCES FOR LEGISLATORS TO DISAGREE. 

PERDUE TRAVELING
SECRETARY OF AGRICULTURE SONNY PERDUE IS  TRAVELING THE STATES HARD-HIT BY HURRICANES THEPAST THREE WEEKS. ON MONDAY, HIS BOOTS HIT THE  GROUND IN FLORIDA.  PERDUE MET WITH FLORIDA CITRUS PRODUCERS AND  TOOK AN AERIAL TOOK OF CITRUS COUNTRY. HE ALSO TALKED WITH VEGETABLE, DAIRY AND SUGAR  PRODUCERS. . PERDUE SAYS USDA WILL SPEED-UP HELP AND ASK  CONGRESS FOR ADDITIONAL AID.

BAYER MONSANTO MERGER
THE BAYER MONSNATO MERGER MAY NOT HAPPEN THIS  YEAR LIKE ORGINICALLY PLANNED.  THE COMPANIES NOW SHOOTING FOR EARLY 2018.  BAYER FILING THIS WEEK AN APPLICATION TO EXTEND  THE E-U REVIEW DEADLINE OF THE PROPOSED  ACQUISITION.  THE NEW DEADLINE TO REVIEW THE DEAL IS JANUARY  22, 2018 .

ORGANIC PRODUCE
THE PUSH TO PRODUCE MORE ORGANIC COMMODITIES  IS GROWING PROUDCTION. USDA SAYS SALES OF CERTIFIED ORGANIC AG  COMMODITIES GREW 23 PERCENT FROM 2015 TO 2016. SALES CAME IN AT 6 POINT 2 BILLION DOLLARS IN 2015. A  YEAR LATER, SALES HIT 7 POINT 6 BILLION.  CALIFORNIA CONTINUES TO LEAD THE PACK, SEEING  NEARLY 3 BILLION DOLLARS IN SALES. 

WEATHER
THAT'S IT FOR NEWS...METEOROLOGIST MIKE  HOFFMAN NOW HAS A LONGER RANGE LOOK AT  WEATHER. MIKE.   THANKS, TYNE YES THAT'S RIGHT WE'VE KIND OF FLIP FLOP THE  OVERALL WEATHER PATTERN OVER THE PAST WEEK WITH THE HEAT COMING  INTO THE EAST AND THE CHILLY TEMPERATURES OUT WEST. LET'S SEE  WHAT THE JET STREAM DOES. AND YOU'LL NOTICE THE THE RIDGE GETS  BROKEN DOWN AS YOU WOULD EXPECT THIS TIME OF THE YEAR BY  WEDNESDAY THE TROUGH COMING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS BY  THURSDAY AND FRIDAY IT WILL MOVE ON TO THE EAST COAST AND THIS  TROUGH WILL PROBABLY BE WHAT KEEPS MARIA OFFSHORE. BUT IF YOU LIVE  ALONG THE EAST COAST YOU NEED TO PAY ATTENTION TO THAT PRETTY  CLOSELY. THIS GOING TO BE A SHOT OF CHILLY AIR THOUGH INTO THE  PLAINS AND EVENTUALLY GREAT LAKES AS WE HEAD INTO THIS COMING  WEEKEND 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR TEMPERATURES GOING ABOVE NORMAL  FOR NEW ENGLAND THIS IS A TOUGH FORECAST. I'M JUST GOING TO TELL  YOU RIGHT OFF THE BAT BECAUSE THINGS MAY FLIP FLOP BACK AND FORTH  BELOW NORMAL OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI  VALLEY ABOVE NORMAL OUT WEST AND ALSO IN SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL  FLORIDA 30 DAY ALACK FOR PRECIPITATION I'M GOING BELOW NORMAL FOR  THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BASICALLY ABOVE NORMAL IN THE SOUTHEAST  AND ABOVE NORMAL IN THE NORTHWEST. TYNE

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
AS TRADE DEBATE COMES TO A HEAD, WITH LEADERS  FROM ALL THREE NATIONS CURRENTLY COMBING  THROUGH NAFTA NEGOTIATIONS, RICE CAUGHT IN THE  MIDDLE. SEPTEMBER MARKS NATIONAL RICE MONTH.  AND LEADERS SAY WHILE DEMAND REMAINS STEADY  HERE AT HOME, IT'S KEY COUNTRIES WHERE THEY'D  LIKE TO SEE APPETITIES FOR U-S RICE, GROW.  THE BIGGEST MARKET IS THE DOMESTIC U.S. MARKET OVERALL.  THAT'S WHERE THE BULK,, I'D SAY ABOUT 60 PERCENT OF THE RICE  GROWN IN THE U.S. STAYS IN THE U.S.  RICE IS GLUTEN FREE-  ALSO FEATURING WHOLE GRAIN  QUALITIES,  BOTH TRAITS HELPING THE CROP GROW IN  POPULARITY.  MANY INGREDIENTS THAT ARE MADE FROM RICE ARE ALSO GLUTEN  FREE FOR ADDITIVES FOR NUTRITIONAL BARS AND DIFFERENT THINGS SUCH AS  THAT.  ONCE THIS AMERICAN MADE RICE  LEAVES THE FIELD,  IT'S PROCESSED IN THE MILL AND TURNED INTO  POPULAR PRODUCTS LIKE BEER.  SULLIVAN SAYS IF YOU  EVER CONSUME BUDWEISER OR BUD LIGHT, YOU'RE  ALREADY A SUPPORTER OF HOME-GROWN RICE.   ANHEUSER-BUSCH IS VIRTUALLY THE LARGEST BUYER OF RICE IN THE  WORLD. THEY'RE A BIG CUSTOMER.  FROM BREWS TO PUPPY FOOD, IT'S MILLED U-S RICE   GROWING  IN USE.   EVEN PUPPY RATIONS USE A LARGE AMOUNT OF RICE NOW  BECAUSE THEY FOUND THAT IT'S VERY SOOTHING TO THE PUPPY'S  TUMMIES.  BUT WHAT DOESN'T GET CONSUMED DOMESTICALLY,  NEEDS A HOME. AND TODAY, THERE ARE A FEW  COUNTRIES THAT TOP THE EXPORT LIST.  MOST OF OUR RICE IS MARKETED INTO THE EXPORT MARKETS INT EH  WESTN  HEMISPHERE.MANY OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLAND, IN CENRAL  AMERICA ARE BIG RICE EATERS.  MOST OF THAT RICE IN CALIFORNIA IS CONSUMED DOMESTICALLY  AND THEN ABOUT 25 PERCENT IS SHIPPED TO JAPAN.  THE RICE INDUSTRY SAYS THEY'RE LOCKSTEP WITH THE  REST OF AGRICULTURE ON CURRENT TRADE DEALS  LIKE NAFTA, URGING THE ADMINSTRATION TO DO NO  HARM IN AGRICULTURE'S SLICE OF TRADE PACTS.   MARKET OR RAW MATERIAL MARKET AND THIS CANADA'S IS OUR THIRD LARGEST.  ANOTHER SCRUTINIZED DEAL THAT COULD  POTENTIALLY POSE FALLOUT FOR RICE-SOUTH KOREA  WHILE WE DON'T NECESSARILY HAVE A SAY IN THE TECHNICAL  ASPECT OF THE AGREEMENT, WE DO EXPORT A LOT RICE TO SOUTH  KOREA EVERY YEAR. AND IF WE GET INTO SOME SORT OF A TRADE, THAT  COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE AFFECT ON THE THE OVERALL TRADE ASPECT SO  WE'RE WATCHING VERY CAREFULLY.  CRUTCHIELD SAYS RICEP PRODUCERS WANT TO  PROTECT CURRENT MARKETS ALREADY IN PLACE, BUT  AS SOME KEY BUYERS WANE, IT'S ENCOURAGING THE  INSDUSTRY TO FIND NEW MARKETS.   IRAQ IS STILL PURCHASING U.S. RICE BUT AS YOU KNOW THIS  RECENT HISTORY FOUR YEARS AGO WAS BUYING SEVERAL HUNDRED  THOUSAND TONS OF RICE A YEAR, THIS PAST YEAR THEY BOUGHT 30000  TONS AND WITH THE LOSS OF THOSE MARKETS, YOU EITHER NEED A  RESUMPTION OF TRADE THERE OR YOU NEED TO PICK UP NEW NEW  MARKETS.  SULLIVAN SAYS CUBA IS ONE  MARKET THAT COULD  COME BACK ON BOARD,, IDEALLY POSITIONED TO TAKE  ON MORE EXPORTS FROM THE RICE BELT IN THE  SOUTHEAST.   BUT AT THE END OF THE DAY CUBA BUYS SOMEWHERE BETWEEN  FIVE HUNDRED THOUSAND SIX HUNDRED THOUSAND TONS PER YEAR.  THEY IMPORT THAT MUCH RICE U.S. RICE CROP U.S. PROXIMITY TO  CUBA IS THE CLOSEST THAT THERE IS WHICH TAKES OUT THE LOGISTIC  ISSUES.  BUT AND AN EVEN BIGGER BUYER WOULD BE THE  WORLD'S MOST POPULOUS COUNTRY.    THE OTHER GIANT HUMONGOUS MARKET THAT YOU CANNOT IGNORE. WE'RE NOT THERE TODAY IS CHINA. YOU KNOW CHINA IS A  MONSTER OF A MARKET. THE FACTS ARE BASED ON THE CONSUMPTION  RATES OF RICE IN CHINA THAT IF IT GO THE SHORT VERSION IS IN A 14 DAY  PERIOD THEY COULD EAT THE ENTIRE U.S. CROP. SO IT'S AN UNREAL  MARKET.  WELL THERE'S NO DOUBT THE CHINA NEEDS RICE, OVER THE LAST  10 YEARS HAVE GONE TO BEING A COMPETITOR OF THE U.S. AND OTHERS  ON THE EXPORT STAGE TO BEING THE WORLD'S LARGEST IMPORTER OF RICE. THE ADMINSTRATION PAVING THE PATH THIS YEAR,  SIGNING  AN AGREEMENT  IN JULY TO START  EXPORTING RICE TO CHINA FOR THE FIRST TIME EVER…  A DEAL MORE THAN A DECADE IN THE WORKS.   ONE OF THE THINGS THAT WAS UNIQUE ABOUT THIS  PHYTOSANITARY AGREEMENT WAS THIS IS FIRST TIME THE UNITED STATES  GOVERNMENT HAS EVER ALLOWED A FOREIGN GOVERNMENT TO SEND  INSPECTORS TO THE UNITED STATES TO REVIEW AND INSPECT POTENTIAL  FACILITIES, INDIVIDUAL COMPANIES.  U-S RICE INDUSTRY CALLING IT A WIN,  BUT THE REALITY  IS LITTLE PROGRESS HAS BEEN MADE SINE THAT FIRST  STEP.    TAKING 11 YEARS TO GET THE FIRST STEP BEHIND US AND BEING  ABLE TO SEE HOW MANY STEPS WE HAVE IN FRONT OF US IS A LITTLE  DISCONCERNING.  AG SECREATARY SUNNY PERDUE RECENTLY RELEASING  AN AGGRESSIVE TIMELINE, SAYING THE FIRST SHIPMENT  OF U-S RICE COULD HIT IN THE NEXT THREE MONTHS.  IF THEY MOVE FORWARD IN ANY KIND OF A TIMELY FASHION, WE  CAN SEE THAT HAPPEN, MY MOST REALISTIC ESTIMATE WOULD BE TO SAY  THAT I'M CONFIDENT WE'LL SEE SOME RICE FROM THE 2017 CROP BE  EXPORTED FROM THE UNITED STATES TO CHINA.  ONCE THE FIRST SHIPMENT BREAKS THROUGH,  CRUTCHFIELD THINKS THE DEMAND GROWTH IS HUGE,  POSSIBLY TURNING INTO A 6 FIGURE MARKET.  AS THE 2017 U-S HARVEST RACES ON, IT'S THIS YEAR'S  GRAIN THAT COULD BREAK THE TRADE BARRIER, WITH  THE RICE INDUSTRY HOPING  NEW DEMAND FLOODS IN.  ARKANSAS IS THE NATION'S LEADING RICE PRODUCERS.  GROWERS AROUND STUTTGART ARE SEEING YIELDS  ANYWHERE FROM 15 TO 20 PERCENT ABOVE LAST YEAR.  AND IN NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, THEY ARE JUST  STARTING TO ROLL IN TEH FIELDS, BUT YIELDS LOOK TO  BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE LAST YEAR.

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, WE CONTINUE OUR TRADE  TALK... JOHN PHIPPS TAKES A DEEP DIVE INTO NAFTA. 

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
LAST WEEK, JOHN TALKED BROADLY ABOUT A TWO  DECADE OLD TRADE PACT. THIS WEEK, HE GETS MORE  INDEPTH ABOUT NAFTA.  LAST WEEK WE LOOKED AT SOME THE OF ISSUES I THINK IMPORTANT  DURING THE ONGOING NAFTA RENEGOTIATIONS. THIS WEEK I WANT TO  ESTABLISH WHAT WE ALREADY KNOW ABOUT THIS AGREEMENT AND  NEGOTIATIONS IN GENERAL. LET'S LOOK AT THE STATE OF TRADE BETWEEN THE US AND CANADA AND  MEXICO. SOME THINGS TO KEEP IN MIND. FIRST, ALWAYS LOOK AT  GOODS AND SERVICES. US SERVICES - LIKE TRAVEL, LICENSES FEES,  FINANCIAL SERVICES, AND CONSULTANTS MAKE UP ABOUT 1/3 OF OUR  EXPORTS, BUT DON'T GET ENOUGH RECOGNITION COMPARED TO CARS OR  CORN. BECAUSE WE RUN SIGNIFICANT AND GROWING SURPLUS IN  SERVICES TRADE IT NEEDS MORE ATTENTION.  ONE BIG PROBLEM IS A WHEN IMPORTS ARE LARGER THAN EXPORTS IT IS  OFTEN REFERRED TO AS A TRADE "DEFICIT", WHICH IS OFTEN CONFUSED WITH  DEBT. IN FACT, ANY SUCH DEFICIT IS FULLY PAID FOR WITH US DOLLARS. IT IS  MORE ACCURATE TO SAY DOLLARS ARE ONE OF OUR BIGGEST EXPORTS.  FURTHERMORE, THERE IS NO LINKAGE WITH THE BALANCE OF TRADE AND  THE FEDERAL DEBT, A FACT THAT SEEMS TO BE MISUNDERSTOOD BY OUR  ADMINISTRATION. THERE ARE EFFECTS ON NATIONAL SAVINGS AND  INVESTMENT, BUT AS YOU CAN SEE, THERE IS NO CORRELATION BETWEEN  OUR BALANCE OF TRADE AND FISCAL DEFICIT, EVEN WHEN WE RAN A  BUDGET SURPLUS. NAFTA WAS AT BEST A MODEST BOOST TO OUR NATIONAL ECONOMY,  ADDING ABOUT $125 BILLION DOLLARS PER YEAR TO OUR GDP. THIS IS LESS THAN ½ OF A PERCENT. SECOND, NOTICE THAT TRADE BOTH WAYS WITH OUR NAFTA PARTNERS IS  GROWING. LOST IN THE RHETORIC ABOUT A TRADE DEFICIT IS THE FACT THAT  TRADE OVERALL IS EXPANDING IN NORTH AMERICA. THIRD, THE BIGGEST IMBALANCE IS MEXICO, BUT THIS IS HARD TO AVOID  WHEN A RICH COUNTRY TRADES WITH A POORER COUNTRY. RIGHT NOW WE  HAVE A SMALL TRADE SURPLUS WITH CANADA. OVERALL THOUGH, NAFTA  IS VERY GOOD FOR AG EXPORTS LIKE CORN.  AND PORK. NAFTA DISRUPTED SOME PARTS OF OUR ECONOMY SIGNIFICANTLY, BUT IN  THE TWENTY-PLUS YEARS SINCE IT BEGAN, ALL THREE ECONOMIES HAVE  ADAPTED TO IT AND ANY CHANGES WILL REQUIRE MORE PAINFUL  ADJUSTMENTS. NEXT WEEK I'LL WRAP UP HOW I THINK THE ISSUES WILL BE RESOLVED. OR  NOT. THANKS, JOHN. HE'LL HAVE PART 2 NEXT WEEK, BUT IF  YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS BEFORE THEN,  EMAIL JOHN AT MAILBAG AT U-S FARM REPORT DOT  COM. 

TEASE
WHEN WE COME BACK, THIS HOOSIER FARMER WEARS  MANY HATS... AND USING ONE OF THEM TO CONNECT  CONUMERS TO THE FARM. REAL FACES OF DAIRY IS  NEXT. 

REAL FACES OF DAIRY
IT CAN BE HARD TO RELAY THE MESSAGE OF  AGRICULTURE TO CONSUMERS.  ONE PRODUCER WHO  IS ALSO A DIETICIAN IS USING HER PASSION FOR BOTH  THE FARM AND FOOD TO TACKLE MISCONCEPTIONS IN A  VERY UNIQUE WAY.  BETSY JIBBEN HAS THE STORY OF  FORT WAYNE, INDIANA PRODUCER, SARAH KNEEN-ERT  IN THIS SEGMENT OF REAL FACES OF DAIRY.  <NATS OF HER MIC'ED UP WITH KIDS AND CALVES>  THE KEUHNERT DAIRY FARM IN FORT WAYNE, INDIANA IS  FILLED WITH GUESTS…  <NAT OF HER MIC'ED UP TALKING> QUESTIONS AND CHATTER  FROM YOUNG MILK DRINKERS <NAT'S OF HER MIC'ED UP WITH  THE KIDS > THE WAY PRODUCER SARAH KUEHNERT  PREFERS IT.   <"I THINK THE BIGGEST THING IS BUILDING A RELATIONSHIP WITH  PEOPLE. LET PEOPLE COME OUT AND SEE WHAT YOU DO.">   AS SHE STRIVES TO SHARE THE FAMILY'300 HEAD  HOLSTEIN DAIRY WITH CONSUMERS WHO WANT TO  VISIT. <"I TRY TO DEVELOP THAT RELATIONSHIP WITH THEM AND UNDERSTAND  WHAT THEIR NEEDS ARE AND IN RETURN, THEY KIND OF TRUST ME OR TAKE  WHAT I HAVE TO SAY TO HEART. IT MAY NOT CHANGE THEIR MIND BUT IT  WILL OPEN THEIR MIND TO WHAT I DO WHAT I DO OR WHY I BELIEVE WHAT I  BELIEVE,">  BUT THIS PRODUCER HAS A NICHE.. . KNEEN-ERT IS  ALSO A DIETITICAN WHO MIXES TOGETHER MESSAGES  ABOUT FARM LIFE AND NUTRTITION.  <"I CAN TALK MORE IN COMMON TERMS AS TO WHAT DAIRY PRODUCTS  DOES TO OUR BODIES, WHAT PEOPLE CAN DO IF THEY'RE LACTOSE  INTOLERANT, IF THEY HAVE MILK ALLERGIES…">  <IN ADDITION TO HOSTING TOURS, THE DAIRY PUTS ON A FALL FESTIVAL  EVERY YEAR,"> THIS YEAR THE THEME FOR OUR FESTIVAL IS STAR WARS…">  INCORPORATED WITH A DAIRY TWIST WHICH WILL BE  SEEN BY  ROUGHLY 25-THOUSAND CONSUMERS WILL  ATTEND OVER 6 WEEKENDS.  <"SO THE CORN MAIZE THIS YEAR DARTH VADER IS HOLDING MILK AND ITS  SLOGAN IS 'USE THE FORCE OF MILK.'">  KNEEN-ERT TRIES TO MAKE IT MORE THAN JUST FUN  AND GAMES… VISITORS HAVE A CHANCE TO SEE ALL OF  THE FARM. <WE HAVE A COMPLETE FARM TOUR OF THE ENTIRE FARM AND WE HIDE  NOTHING,">  IT'S NOT EASY OPENING THE DOORS OF THE FARM.. AND  EARLY ON KNEEN-ERT BROUGHT IN PEOPLE FROM THE  COMMUNITY TO PRACTICE.  <I SAID ASK ME QUESTIONS. GET ON THIS HAY RIDE. I WANT TO KNOW  WHAT YOU SEE. I WANT TO KNOW HOW IT MAKES YOU FEEL,"> ADVICE ON STARTING THE CONVERSATION AS SHE  ENCOURAGES OTHER PRODUCERS TO FOLLOW. <"IT'S JUST HAVING AN OPEN MIND AND BEING OPEN TO HAVING THAT  CONVERSATION WITH SOMEONWHE THE OPPORTUNITY ARRISES,">  REPRORTING IN FORT WAYNE, INDIANA, I'M BETSY  JIBBEN.  THANKS, BETSY.  WHEN WE COME BACK, TRACTOR TALES. 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS THIS WEEK I'M AT THE FARM  PROGRESS SHOW IN DECATUR ILLINOIS AND REALLY HAVE A TREAT HERE.  I'M WITH MARK BRIAN FROM TISCOLA, ILLINOIS. AND MARK BOY YOU HAVE A BEAUTIFUL '59 730 WHY DON'T YOU TELL US ABOUT IT. THANK YOU. THIS TRACTOR WAS DELIVERED IN 1959 TO OUR LOCAL  DEALERSHIP IN TASCOLLA, ILLINOIS GOOD FRIENDS OF OUR FAMILY WE  PURCHASED IT FROM THE FAMILY. IT WAS STUCK AND SO COMPLETELY  REBUILT AN OVERHAUL AND PUT EVERY NEW SEAL AND EVERY WE TORE IT  COMPLETELY T DOWN AND REBUILT IT AND THEN WE PLOWED WITH IT TO  MAKE SURE WE DIDN'T HAVE ANY LEAKS OR ANY MECHANICAL  PROBLEMS. AND THEN AFTER WE DO THAT ADJUST ANYTHING THAT WE  MIGHT HAVE SEEPING OR ANYTHING THEN WE START ON THE COSMETIC  PART OF IT. JOHN THERE'S BEEN IN MY BLOOD SINCE I WAS 12 YEARS OLD  AND MY DAD AND I HAVE A REAL NICE COLLECTION IN OUR FAMILY FARM  AND WE CALL OUR MUSEUM. WE HAVE QUITE A FEW JOHN DEERE  TRACTORS SOME RARE ONES AND SOME COMMON ONES. WELL I THINK I  THANK GOD EVERY DAY FOR ME GETTING TO BE WITH MY FATHER  BECAUSE WE FARM TOGETHER FOR YEARS BEFORE HE RETIRED AND NOW  WE WORK ON TRACTORS TOGETHER. I SEE HIM EVERY DAY AND IT WAS JUST  A PRIVILEGE AND AN HONOR BE AT MY FATHER'S SIDE EVERY YOU KNOW  EVERYDAY FARMING. AND THEN IN THE WINTERTIME WE WOULD WORK ON  THE TRACTORS AND I COULDN'T ASK FOR A BETTER LIFE IN THAT RESPECT.  NEW STUFF'S OUT THERE. ANYBODY CAN BUY NEW STUFF. I'M THE TYPE OF  PERSON THAT LOVES OLD STUFF. I LOVE OLD JOHN THERE'S STUFF IN IT.  THAT'S WHAT I LIKE TO BE AROUND. LAST WEEKEND, TRACTOR LOVERS ACROSS MICHIGAN  CONGRETING JUST SOUTH OF MACINAW ISLAND FOR A  MAJOR TRACTOR RIDE. DAN KEENAN SENT US SOME  COOL VIDEO WHILE DRIIVNG ACROSS. HE SAYS IT'S TEH  10TH ANNIVERSARY OF THE ANNUAL RIDE WITH CLOSE  TO 1500 TRACTORS PARTCIPATING THIS YEAR-- A NEW  RECORD. 

COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE
TODAY'S COUNTRY CHURCH SALUTE GOES TO THE NEW  HOPE METHODIST CHURCH LOCATED IN KNOBBY,  MISSOURI. THEY TELL US THE CHURCH IS TURNING 125  YEARS OLD NEXT WEEKEND. ALL NEIGHBORS AND PAST  AND PRESENT MEMBERS ARE WELCOME TO ATTEND.  OUR THANKS TO DAVID NOVINGER FOR SENDING THAT  IN.  AS ALWAYS WE WANT TO LEARN ABOUT YOUR HOME  CHURCH AS WELL... SALUTES CAN BE SENT TO THE  ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN.  STAY WITH US - FROM TEH FARM PHOTOS ARE IS NEXT.

FROM THE FARM
WELL MIKE HARVEST IS UNDER WAY AND PHOTOS ARE STARTING TO  ROLL IN. TY BENNETT WAS BUSY PICKING POPCORN THIS WEEK.  AND MASON COUNTY ILLINOIS SNAPPED THAT PICTURE. AND  VIEWER LEWIS RUSSELL IN ESSEXVILLE MICHIGAN WHICH IS IN THE  SAGINAW VALLEY AREA. THEIR GRANDSONS ARE HAVING FUN IN THE  SUNFLOWERS. HE SAYS THE BOYS AGES ONE AND THREE AND A HALF ARE  AMAZED AT HOW TALL THE FLOWERS GET. I AM TO A LOT OF TIMES ACTUALLY  12 AND 13 FEET TALL. LOOKS LIKE A GOOD CROP THIS YEAR.  FINALLY A CROP TALLER THAN YOU MIKE, WELL, CORN CORN GETS  THERE. WELL YOU KNOW IT'S BEEN SO WARM HERE IN NORTHERN  MICHIGAN AND I KNOW A LOT OF OUR VIEWERS HAVE HAD THESE ABOVE  NORMAL TEMPERATURES. IS THIS HERE TO STAY. I MEAN THIS NEEDS  ABOVE NORMAL TEMP.  YOU KNOW IN THE EARLY PARTS OF THIS WEEK AND THEN IT  DEFINITELY COOLS DOWN PRETTY BIG TIME IN PARTS OF THE MIDWEST AND  THE GREAT LAKES. 

CLOSE
ALL RIGHT. REMEMBER IF YOU HAVE PHOTOS OR VIDEOS YOU  WOULD LIKE TO AND THEN YOU CAN DO THAT TO THE ADDRESS ON THE  SCREEN. AND FROM ALL OF US US FARM REPORT I'M MIKE HOFFMAN AND  I'M TYNE MORGAN AND THANK YOU FOR WATCHING. BE SURE TO JOIN US  AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADITION.  HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE. 

Back to news


Comments

 
Spell Check

No comments have been posted to this News Article

Corn College TV Education Series

2014_Team_Shot_with_Logo

Get nearly 8 hours of educational video with Farm Journal's top agronomists. Produced in the field and neatly organized by topic, from spring prep to post-harvest. Order now!

Markets

Market Data provided by Barchart.com
brought-by
Close