USFR Weekly Recap- June 9-10, 2018

June 9, 2018 03:30 AM
 

TODAY ON U.S. FARM REPORT
JUNE 9-10, 2018

HEADLINES

WELCOME TO U.S. FARM REPORT. I'M TYNE MORGAN, AND IT'S A FOCUS ON WASHINGTON OVER THE NEXT 60  MINUTES. U-S FARM REPORT IS AT THE WHITE HOUSE, WHERE THE  ADMINSTRATION SAYS THERE'S A PUSH TO MOVE  TOWARD BILATERAL DEALS WITH CANADA AND MEXICO . THE PRESIDENT BACKS OFF HIS PLAN TO MAKE  CHANGES TO THE R-F-S AFTER PRO-ETHANOL GROUPS  SAID IT WOULD BE BAD FOR FARMERS..  WELL THE PRESIDENT TOLD ME LAST NIGHT HE WAS NOT GOING TO  SIGN ANYTHING THAT FARMERS WEREN'T HAPPY WITH IT.> THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE REACHES A DEAL ON THE FARM BILL I WANT TO KNOW THAT WE'RE GOING TO GET THEM A GOOD FARM BILL. > AND IN JOHN'S WORLD. 

NEWS
NOW FOR THE NEWS, AS THE TRUMP ADMINSTRATION RETURNED FROM A TRIP TO CHINA IN AN EFFORT TO   RESOLVE TRADE ISSUES, REPORTS SAID CHINA SAYING  IT  WILL TAKE ANYWEHRE FROM 70 TO 100 BILLION  DOLLARS WORTH OF U-S AGRICULTURAL AND ENERGY  EXPORTS... IF THE U-S DROPS ITS PROPOSED 50 BILLION  DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS ON CHINA.  THAT PROPOSAL CAME OUT OF WEEKEND TALKS IN  BEIJING.   CHINA SAYING CHINESE COMPANIES WOULD  BUY MORE U.S. SOYBEANS, CORN, NATURAL GAS,  CRUDE OIL AND COAL. .THE PACKAGE VALUED AT ROUGHLY $70 BILLION IN THE  FIRST YEAR. SECRETARY SONNY PERDUE SAYING THE COMMITTMENT WOULD DOUBEL THE AMOUTN OF AG  GOODS THAT ENTER CHINA.  THAT'S AS PRESIDENT TRUMP PRESSING CHINA TO  REDUCE THE TRADE DEFICIT WITH CHINA BY 200  BILLION.  MEANWHILE, CANADA AND MEXICO STILL LASHING BACK  AGAINST THE PRESIDENT'S DECISION TO MOVE  FORWARD WITH STEEL AND ALUMINUM TARIFFS ON  NAFTA TRADING PARTNERS.  JUST THIS WEEK, THE ADMINITRATION ALSO DECIDNIG  TO POSSIBLY PURSUE BILATERAL TRADE PACTS WITH  CANADA AND MEXICO, INSTEAD OF A TRILATERAL DEAL.  I AM OPTIMISTIC OVERALL. THE PRESIDENT'S MADE THE DECISION CERTAINLY ON NAFTA NOT TO WITHDRAW BUT TO NEGOTIATE  SEPARATELY WITH CANADA AND MEXICO BELIEVING THAT WE CAN GET A  BETTER DEAL WITH CANADA AND WITH MEXICO SEPARATELY. AND HONESTLY BASED ON SOME OF THE DIFFERENCES AND THE NEEDS THERE,  THAT'S TRUE. . AND I BELIEVE WE COME OUT WITH A BETTER DEAL WITH  BOTH AND HOPEFULLY SOONER RATHER THAN LATER, BECAUSE TRYING TO  GET A TRIANGULATION BUT IT WAS VERY FRUSTRATING AND WE WERE ALL RUNNING INTO DIFFERENT TIMELINES OF THE WINDOW SHUTTING.> PERDUE TELLING U-S FARM REPORT THAT WHILE PRIME MINISTER JUSTIN TRUDEAU DID OFFER SOME CONCESSIOSN ON THE DAIRY FRONT, IT DIDN'T GO FAR  ENOUGH. AND IT'S WHAT THE PRESIDETN DEEMS AS UNFAIR  DAIRY TRADE WITH CANADA MAKING IT INTO  PRESIDENT'S TWEETS LATE THIS WEEK. THAT'S AS HE HEADED TO THE G-7 SUMMIT IN CANADA.  THE PRESIDENT TWEETING TWICE IN 12 HOURS ABOUT  CANADA, SAYING, QUOTE, CANADA CHARGES THE U-S A  270 PERCENT TAROFF ON DAIRY PRODUCTS.... AND  THAT IT'S NOT FAIR TO OUR FARMERSE.  IT'S PORK THAT IS GETTING HIT FROM ALL SIDES IN TEH  TARIFF DISPUTE. THE 25 PERCENT LEVY ON PORK IMPORTS TO CHINA IS STILL ON TEH TABLE. AND MEXICO  RETALIATED AGAINST THE U-S, PLACING DUTIES ON  PORK. BETSY JIBBEN IS AT THE WORLD PORK EXPO IN  DES MOINES THIS WEEK WHERE PORK PRODUCERS ARE  PLEADING WITH THE ADMINSTRATION TO STOP THE  BLEEDING. BETSY.  YNE,IT'S NO SURPRISE TRADE IS THE MAIN TOPIC HERE AT WORLD PORK  EXPO, ESPECIALLY WITH MORE TARIFF NEWS BREAKING THIS WEEK. NOW,  BOTH MEXICO AND CHINA HAVE TARIFFS ON U.S. PORK PRODUCTS,  SOMETHING THE PORK INDUSTRY WANTS LIFTED AS SOON AS POSSIBLE.  THE ADMINISTRATION] THEY ARE TRYING TO TAKE A LONG-TERM VIEW AND  WE'RE TALKING FREQUENTLY ALL OF THE TIME TO THE ADMINISTRATION,  LETTING THEM KNOW, REMINDING THEM, THERE'S A LOT OF INDUSTRIES IMPACTED BY THE TRADE DISPUTES BUT WE'RE THE BIGGEST INDUSTRY  WITH THE MOST RETALIATION. 50 - 53 WE ARE MORE THAN AT THE TIP OF  THE SPEAR, THE SPEAR IS IN US AND THERE'S BLOOD ON THE FLOOR. 1:57" THEY NEEDED TO BE ADDRESSED. IT'S LONG OVERDUE. AND IT'S  GOING TO BE A CHALLENGE BUT HOPEFULLY WE CAN GET ENGAGEMENT.  WE HAVE TWO OF THE BIGGEST WTO CASES IN HISTORY I THINK IN  AG RIGHT NOW WITH CHINA. SOME MAJOR SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE TO OCCUR AND THAT'S WHAT THIS IS ABOUT. 3:21> NPPC IS ALSO LOOKING AT EXPANDING THE MARKETPLACE, AT COUNTRIES SUCH AS JAPAN, VIETNAM AND THE PHILLIPPINES. REPORTING FOR  USFR I'M BETSY JIBBEN THANKS, BETSY.  LATE WEDNESDAY THE EUROPEAN UNION ANNOUNCED  IT WILL START IMPOSING DUTIES ON A LIST OF U.S.  PRODUCTS IN RESPONSE TO PRESIDENT DONALD  TRUMP'S DECISION TO SLAP TARIFFS ON STEEL AND  ALUMINUM IMPORTS FROM EUROPE. . THE EU SAYS IT WILL INTRODUCE "REBALANCING"  TARIFFS ON ABOUT THREE AND A HALF BILLION  DOLLARS WORTH OF U.S. STEEL, AGRICULTURAL AND  OTHER PRODUCTS, INCLUDING BOURBON, PEANUT BUTTER, CRANBERRIES AND ORANGE JUICE. THE  TARIFFS GO INTO EFFECT IN JULY. . THE EU HAS ALSO TAKEN ITS CASE TO THE WORLD  TRADE ORGANIZATION.  BAYER CLOSING THE DEAL TO BUY MONSANTO THIS  WEEK..  AS OF THURSDAY, BAYER IS NOW THE SOLE OWNER OF  MONSANTO.THE TWO COMPANIES WILL CONTINUE TO OPERATE  SEPERATELY UNTIL THE DIVESTITURES GO THROUGH  TO B-A-S-F.  THAT'S IT FOR THE NEWS.

TEASE
STILL TO COME, WHAT AREAS OF HTE COUNTRY COULD HAVE A CHANCE OF RAIN NEXT WEEK? AND HAVE WE  ALREADY SEEN THE HIGH IN CORN FOR THE YEAR?  THAT'S STILL TO COME. 

WEATHER
METEOROLOGIST MIKE HOFFMAN JOINS US NOW WITH WEATHER... MIKE, WE ARE HEARING SOME DROUGHT  TALK THAT'S SPREADING TO OTHER AREAS THAN JUST  THE WEST AND THE PLAINS. THANKS TYNE I KNOW I STILL DON'T SEE IT BECOMING WIDESPREAD AT THIS POINT WE HAVE THESE COMPLEXES OF  THUNDERSTORMS THAT JUST KEEP DEVELOPING. AND ANYTIME YOU  MOISTEN THE GROUND UP YOU REALLY LIMIT THE HEAT AND YOU LIMIT THAT CHANCE FOR DROUGHT OBVIOUSLY. NOW HERE'S WHAT THE DROUGHT  MONITOR LOOKS LIKE AT THE MOMENT. I WANT TO POINT OUT THIS AREA  TEXAS WESTERN OKLAHOMA SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IF WE GO BACK A MONTH YOU CAN SEE HOW MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD THE EXTREME  EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT WAS. BUT WE'VE SEEN THESE POCKETS DEVELOP  OVER THE LAST FOUR WEEKS. THAT IS CUT DOWN ON THAT DROUGHT SITUATION. SEE IT'S A LOT MORE SPOTTY NOW STILL PRETTY BAD BACK  THROUGH THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. WE'RE GETTING A LITTLE DRIER  EASTERN TEXAS LOUISIANA AND WE CONTINUE TO BE ON THE DRY SIDE NORTHERN MISSOURI SOUTHERN IOWA INTO PARTS OF ILLINOIS AND INDIANA  AND KIND OF THE SAME IDEA IN THE FAR NORTHERN PLAINS BUT SO FAR  OTHING WIDESPREAD IS DEVELOPING. AND AS LONG AS WE CONTINUE TO GET THESE TROUGHS COMING EAST TO CUT DOWN THIS RIDGE AS WE  SEE IS COMING EARLY THIS WEEK AGAIN WITH ANOTHER TROUGH CAN A  MOVE IN THROUGH THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THAT WILL KEEP THINGS TO A MINIMUM AS WELL AS FAR AS ANY DROUGHT POSSIBILITIES  AS WE HEAD THROUGH THE REST OF SUMMER. BUT OBVIOUSLY WE NEED  THIS PATTERN TO CONTINUE. YOU CAN SEE AS WE HEAD THROUGH  THURSDAY AND ON INTO FRIDAY THE TROUGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT  LAKES IN THE NORTHEAST.  ANOTHER TROUGH COMING IN OUT WEST RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN IN  THE WESTERN PLAINS AND THAT WILL KIND OF BE CUT DOWN AGAIN AS THAT  NEXT TROUGH STARTS TO COME IN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND. BUT  YOU KNOW IN BETWEEN THERE'S STILL GOING TO BE SOME PRETTY PRETTY INTENSE HEAT IN PLACES. NOW HERE'S THE WAY THINGS SHAPE UP AS  WE GO DAY BY DAY. YOU CAN SEE ON MONDAY WE'RE LOOKING FOR A  COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE PLAIN STATES WARM FRONT DOWN INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY. THOSE WILL BE THE  FOCUS AREAS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. NONE OF THESE ARE  WIDESPREAD BUT ANYTIME YOU GET A COMPLEX OF STORMS YOU CAN  GET SOME PRETTY DECENT RAIN IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. THAT FIRST  COLD FRONT KIND OF WEAKENS AS IT COMES INTO THE GREAT LAKES A  FEW SHOWERS OUT AHEAD OF IT. HIT AND MISS AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SOUTHEAST SAME IDEA IN THE FOUR CORNERS  REGION ON UP INTO PARTS OF WYOMING PARTS OF NEBRASKA AS WELL.  NEXT FRONT COMING INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST THAT MOVES QUICKLY FROM WEST TO EAST BY FRIDAY IT'S INTO THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES  WITH SOME AREAS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THESE ARE HIT  AND MISS THUNDERSTORMS IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHEAST AGAIN SAME  IDEA IN THE SOUTHWEST. AND ALONG THAT STATIONARY FRONT THEN WILL  THERE BE SOME SHOWERS INTO PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.  HERE'S MY FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 30 DAYS. I AM GOING TO GO ABOVE NORMAL FROM SOUTHERN MONTANA THROUGH CALIFORNIA ON INTO PARTS  OF THE SOUTHEAST AND ALL OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BELOW NORMAL THE  NORTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST AND THEN AS YOU TAKE A LOOK AT 30 DAY OUTLOOK FOR PRECIPITATION BELOW NORMAL FOR TEXAS  THE FAR WESTERN PLAINS INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.   BUT FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS INTO MOST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC  GREAT LAKES IN THE SOUTHEAST. I AM GOING ABOVE NORMAL TYNE. 

TEASE
THANKS, MIKE. HAVE WE ALREADY SEEN THE TOP IN THE CORN MARKET? BRIAN SPLITT AND TOMMY GRISAFI JOIN ME NEXT.

ROUNDTABLE 1
WELCOME BACK TO US FARM REPORT. WELL IF YOU ARE A FARMER  AND YOU STILL HAVE SOME CORN AND BEANS THAT YOU HAVE NOT SOLD  IT'S BEEN A FRUSTRATING WEEK TO LOOK AT THE MARKETS. TOMMY TO  START US OFF. I MEAN WHY ARE WE IN THIS DOWNTURN RIGHT NOW WHY  ARE KIND OF THE BEGGARS PREVAILING AT THIS POINT. WELL WE GET TO A  CERTAIN PART OF A YEAR WHERE YOU CAN'T KILL THE CROP YOU GET. WE  HAVE THAT FEAR TRADE WHERE WE'RE NOT GOING TO GET THE CROP IN AND  THEN THERE'S ALWAYS A COUPLE WEEKS WHERE IT'S JUST HOW DO YOU  KILL FORAGE CORN. THERE'S GOING TO BE A FLOOD. THE HEAT AND SO THE  CROP STARTS TO MATURE AND THE MARKET'S ALWAYS LOOKING FOR A STORY  WHETHER IT'S THERE. WE'RE NOT GOING TO GET IT PLANTED BUT WE GET IT PLANNED AND THEN IT'S GOING TO BE HOT AND DRY AND THEN IT RAINS  AND IT'S COOLER AND THEN THE BOWL THE BOWL NEEDS TO BE FED EVERY  DAY AND SO AT THE POINT THE BALL'S NOT BEING FED AND THE MONEY WANTS TO GET OUT OF THE MARKET. THERE'S NOT AS MANY HEDGE  FUNDS AS THERE USED TO BE AND THEY GET IN BUT THEY GET OUT. ALSO  WHETHER IT BE THEY'RE TAKING A PROFIT OR AT THIS POINT PROBABLY TAKEN A LOSS OF THE FUNDS ARE HE SAID THE BULLS NEED TO BE FED  EVERY DAY AND I FEEL LIKE SOME OF THE HEADLINES THIS WEEK WERE  TRYING TO FEED THE BULLS.  WHEN YOU LOOK AT SOME PEOPLE TALKING ABOUT THE DRYNESS  AND COMPARING THE DRYNESS AND SOIL MOISTURE TO 2012 REALLY WHAT IS THE SITUATION TODAY AND IS THE MARKET EVEN FOCUSED ON  THAT DRYNESS OR WEATHER RIGHT NOW. WELL I THINK FROM THE LARGE  MONEY PERSPECTIVE YOU KNOW THE TRADE SAW THE CROP CONDITIONS THAT WE HAD A YEAR AGO ON THE CROP AND WE'VE STARTED THIS YEAR  WITH VERY EXCELLENT CONDITIONS 79 PERCENT GOOD TO EXCELLENT TO  START. THAT'S THE SECOND BEST START EVER SO IF WE CAN RAISE THE TYPE OF CROP WE HAD LAST YEAR LOOK LOOKING AT THE GOOD SOLID  RATINGS THAT WE HAD ALL SUMMER. I THINK THE BIG MONEY IS  WONDERING WHAT KIND OF CROP WE CAN SEE WITH THESE GOOD  EXCELLENT RATINGS AND SO YOU KNOW WE KIND OF FEEL LIKE THE 2  BILLION BUSHEL TYPE CARRY OUT IS INDICATIVE ABOUT AFFORD OUR  DECEMBER CORN FUTURES VALUE. SO WITH US TRADING BELOW THAT OR RETTER IN THAT VICINITY I THINK THAT MEANS THAT THE FUND BELIEVES  THAT WE'RE PRICING IN MAYBE A 178 TO 180 BUSHEL PER ACRE CORN  RIGHT NOW BECAUSE THINGS IN THEIR EYES LOOK REALLY GOOD. SO THEN WHEN DO YOU THINK THAT STORYLINE CHANGES THERE WHEN COULD IT  CHANGE. WELL PART OF THE PROBLEM TIME WE HAVE WITH THE INDUSTRY  IS PEOPLE ARE SELLING SUBSCRIPTIONS AND SO IF YOU WANT TO SELL SUBSCRIPTIONS AND DEBBIE DOWNER IS NOT GOING TO MAKE YOU  SUCCESSFUL. SO YOU WANT TO BE OPTIMISTIC YOU WANT TO GIVE THE  FARMER HOPE THEY LIKE THAT THEY BUY DOWN ON THAT. THE REALITY IS IS THAT REGARDLESS OF ANY OF THE STATISTICS OR ANYTHING ELSE IS  EVERY YEAR AMERICA GROWS A CROP AND IT NEEDS TO BE SOLD AND  THE TIMEFRAME WE'RE COMPETING AGAINST OTHER COUNTRIES GROWING  A CROP. SO THERE'S A CROP COMING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THERE'S A CROP COMING HERE WE HAVE RUSSIA AND THE  WHEAT. AND SO ALTHOUGH WE HAVE OUR PRODUCTION PROBLEMS HERE  AND WE WILL AGAIN HAVE PRODUCTION PROBLEMS. THE WHOLE WORLD IS COMING AT US WITH OTHER GOOD CROPS. AND PEOPLE ARE SOURCING  GRAIN FROM OTHER COUNTRIES AND IT'S JUST A LOT GOING ON RIGHT NOW.  BRIAN DO YOU THINK THE REALITY IS THAT WE'VE ALREADY SEEN THE HIGH  END CORN THIS YEAR. YOU KNOW IF ANYBODY LOOKS AT CHARTS I THINK  THERE IS A VERY DEFINITIVE TOPPING PATTERN THAT'S BEEN PUT IN PLACE.  WE'VE GOT A DOUBLE TOP ADD FOR 29 AND A HALF AND THAT'S YOU  KNOW 10 MONTHS IN THE MAKING. SO KNOW REALLY 430 IS GOING TO BE A VERY STRONG RESISTANCE LEVEL. AND I'M NOT GOING TO SAY THAT  WE CAN'T TAKE THAT OUT AT SOME POINT BUT WE HAVE TO HAVE SOME  KIND OF A BIGGER PICTURE STORY AND SOME REAL REASON TO THINK THAT  WE ARE LOSING YIELD INSTEAD OF ADDING YIELD. SO WHETHER IN THE  NEXT 30 TO 45 DAYS IS GOING TO BE EXTREMELY IMPORTANT. I KNOW THERE ARE SOME FORECASTS FOR SOME EXTREME WARMTH. YOU KNOW  THE MONTH OF MAY WAS ABOVE AVERAGE WE WERE LOOKING AT AMES  IOWA FOR EXAMPLE AND WE HAD TWENTY FIVE DAYS ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE MONTH OF MAY ONE DAY OF NORMAL AND FIVE  DAYS BELOW NORMAL SO THERE'S A GLOBAL TREND RIGHT NOW AND  WEATHER AND THAT COULD CONTINUE INTO OUR GROWING SEASON. BUT RIGHT NOW I THINK YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT RALLIES AS SELLING  OPPORTUNITIES AND REALLY KEEP AN EYE ON AT 430 LEVEL AS THE  MAJOR RESISTANCE. DO YOU AGREE WITH BRIAN DO YOU THINK THAT 430 LEVEL IS DIFFICULT TO GET PAST.  I'LL TAKE A LOT OF ENERGY TO GET THERE OR OR TWO TWEETS.  THERE'S A LOT OF THINGS THAT COULD HAPPEN AND YOU LAUGH BUT  THAT'S THAT'S THE WORLD WE LIVE IN. ONE INTERESTING POINT THAT BRIAN BROUGHT WITH THAT IS THAT I THINK WE'RE UNDERESTIMATING HOW GOOD  THESE HYBRIDS ARE. I MEAN WHEN YOU SAID THAT WERE BETTER THAN  EXPECTED IT WAS WHAT WE LAUGHED ABOUT LAST YEAR. BUT I'M NOT SURE YOU KNOW ONE TREISMAN BY POOR SEED AND SAID HEY I  BOUGHT REALLY AFFORDABLE SEED EVERYONE'S BUYING THE BEST OF  EVERYTHING AND THERE'S A TECHNOLOGY ASPECT OF AGRICULTURE THAT I  THINK WE'RE MISSING. AND WE WON'T KNOW THAT FOR FIVE YEARS WHEN  WE LOOK BACK AND OBVIOUSLY THOUGH THE TRENDING YIELDS GOING FROM THE BOTTOM LEFT TO THE RIGHT. RIGHT. AND SOMETIME IN OUR  LIFETIME 200 NATIONAL YIELD WILL BE JUST THE NORM AND WE'LL LAUGH  ABOUT THESE 174. BUT KNOWING THAT WE DO HAVE A LITTLE OF STOCK SITUATION I MEAN WHAT YIELD DO WE NEED TO GET TO IN ORDER TO  REALLY BUDGE THIS CORN PRICE. IS IT JUST RED LINE BALLOON TREND LINE. I  MEAN REALLY WHAT YOU'LL DO YOU THINK MOVES THE PRICE. I THINK YOU  KNOW IF WE CAN START THE CONVERSATION OF HEY WE'RE WE'RE HEADING  BACK CLOSER TO A TRENDLINE YIELD INSTEAD OF YOU KNOW GREATER THAN  TREND THAT CAN GET THE MARKET TO GO BACK UP. AND I THINK THERE'S  SOME TECHNICAL TARGETS ABOVE THE MARKET THAT WE WERE GOING TO WANT TO ACHIEVE AT SOME POINT. WE HAD GAP LOWER TO START THE  WEEK AND FOR 11 WOULD FILL THAT GAP BASIS THE DECEMBER FUTURES  CONTRACT.   SO I THINK THAT'S A LEVEL THAT WE REALLY NEED TO KEEP AN EYE  ON AND PROBABLY TAKE ACTION IF WE SEE IT. ALL RIGHT. WELL IS THERE A SILVER SILVER LINING IN ALL OF THIS. AND ALSO WHAT IN THE WORLD WAS  GOING ON. WE NEED TO TAKE A BREAK AND THEN LATER IN THE SHOW  WE'LL ASK TOMMY AND BRIAN. 

JOHN’S WORLD
WE TALKED ABOUT LOW COMMODITY PRICES ON TEH ROUNDTABLES THIS WEEKEND. AND IT'S LOW PRICES  THAT CAN EAT INTO FARMER OUTLOOKS, CAUSE  FINANCIAL STREESS AND HAS RECENTLY LEAD TO SOME  FARMERS TAKING THEIR OWN LIFE. AND IT'S THAT TOPIC  TAHT'S THIS WEEK'S JOHN'S WORLD.  LAST WEEK WE SPOKE ABOUT HOW INDUSTRY LEADERS AND GROUPS ARE WORRIED ABOUT THE FINANCIAL STRESS ON DAIRY FARMERS AND THE  POSSIBILITY OF IT CONTRIBUTING TO FARMER SUICIDE. I AM CERTAINLY NOT  QUALIFIED TO TALK KNOWLEDGABLY ABOUT MEDICAL ASPECTS OF THIS MENTAL HEALTH ISSUE AND WILL LET PROFESSIONALS OFFER ADVICE AND SERVICES FOR PEOPLE AT RISK. BUT, THERE IS AT LEAST ONE ACTION THAT MANY FAMILIES OR INDIVIDUALS  UNDER THIS KIND OF PRESSURE CAN TAKE TO AT LEAST DECREASE THE CHANCE OF A TRAGEDY. IT INVOLVES SOME GRISLY STATISTICS SO PLEASE  BEAR WITH ME. FIRST, WE NEED TO KEEP IN MIND THE - FOR LACK OF A  BETTER WORD - EFFICIENCY OF VARIOUS SUICIDE METHODS. CLEARLY, USING A GUN RESULTS IN A GREATER PROBABILITY OF DEATH. NOT BY A LOT  COMPARED TO OTHER METHODS, BUT THE POINT IS TO WHITTLE DOWN THE  ODDS - WE CAN'T ERASE THEM. SECOND, ALTHOUGH STUDIES REGARDING SUICIDE ARE PROBLEMATIC FOR OBVIOUS REASONS, THE ROLE OF IMPULSE  NEEDS TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY. ACCORDING TO THE BEST STUDY  AVAILABLE, ABOUT 70 PERCENT OF SUICIDE ATTEMPTS ARE DECIDED AN  HOUR OR LESS BEFORE, AND ALMOST 25% JUST FIVE MINUTES BEFORE THE  ATTEMPT. INTERVIEWS WITH SURVIVORS ALSO UNCOVERED TWO IMPORTANT  FACTS. FIRST, THE COMMON BELIEF SUICIDE SURVIVORS WILL JUST TRY  AGAIN IS FALSE.  ABOUT 90% DO NOT REPEAT. SECOND, SURVIVORS  COMMONLY REPORT INSTANT REGRET. THE MOST CHILLING STORIES ARE  FROM THE FEW WHO SURVIVED JUMPING FROM THE GOLDEN GATE BRIDGE, BUT ALL CATEGORIES OF SURVIVORS EXPERIENCED SIMILAR  REALIZATIONS. PUTTING THESE FACTS TOGETHER, I THINK ONE PRUDENT,  PRACTICAL STEP FOR HOUSEHOLDS WHO FEEL THEY ARE AT RISK IS TO BUILD  IN A 5-MINUTE DELAY FOR FIREARMS. KEEPING YOUR GUNS LOCKED AND  THE KEY IN ANOTHER LOCATION LIKE THE MACHINE SHED OR BARN, FOR EXAMPLE, COULD BE JUST ENOUGH INTERVAL TO ALLOW AN IMPULSE TO  PASS. OR STORING GUNS AND AMMUNITION IN DIFFERENT LOCATIONS. IT IS  THE SAME PRINCIPLE BEHIND COUNTING TO TEN BEFORE RESPONDING IN  AN ARGUMENT. IT IS A SIMPLE STEP BUT ONE WITH STRONG EVIDENCE IT  COULD DECREASE THE MOST HAZARDOUS SUICIDE ATTEMPTS. IT WILL NOT SAVE EVERY VICTIM, BUT PREVENTING EVEN A FEW TRAGEDIES IS A HUGE  REWARD FOR SUCH LOW COST. I AM NOT IGNORING NEEDED MEASURES TO  ADDRESS THE ROOT CAUSES OF FARM SUICIDES, LIKE ACCESS TO MENTAL HEALTH RESOURCES OR BETTER FARM POLICY. BUT WHILE WE ARE WORKING  ON THOSE, DOING WHAT WE CAN DO ON OUR OWN SHOULD BE A PRIORITY. 

TEASE
THANKS, JOHN. A HEAVY TOPIC. REMEMBER, IF YOU ARE  IN A POSITION WHERE YOU'RE CONSIDERING TAKING  YOUR OWN LIFE, THERE'S A NATIONAL SUICIDE  PREVENTION HOTLINE YOU CAN CALL. UP NEXT, TRACTOR TALES WITH MACHINERY PETE. . 

TRACTOR TALES
WELCOME BACK TO TRACTOR TALES FOLKS! WE’RE OFF TO WEST CENTRAL IOWA THIS WEEK FOR A CLASSIC ORCHARD.  OWNER WILL SICK TRAVELLED FROM IOWA TO NEW MEXICO TO PICK UP THIS INTERNATIONAL O6. HE SAID IT WAS IN PRETTY ROUGH SHAPE WHEN HIS SON-IN-LAW STEVE FOUND IT, SO HE GOT RIGHT TO WORK ON IT.  TODAY IT LOOKS BRAND NEW. IT WAS PRODUCED MOSTLY FOR ORCHARD WORK IN THEIR NEW UNIQUE PART IS THE VERY EXCESS OF TIN WORKS TO KEEP PROTECT THE OPERATOR AND MOST WORK IN THE ORCHARD WAS PULLING OF SPRAYER IN USING THE TRAILER AND THEY MIGHT HAVE A HAD  A HAND BOOM ON FOR THE TREES AND THEN THIS AREA BETWEEN THE TREES FOR WEED CONTROL HAS THE EXTRA TIN WORK TO KEEP YOU FROM GETTING SLAPPED IN THE FACE REPEATEDLY BY TREE BRANCHES AS THE SAME ENGINE AS AN M FARMALL AND I'VE NEVER BEEN AROUND THAT THAT MY SON-IN-LAW WAS ON A JOB SITE IN NEW MEXICO AND SAW THIS TRACTOR ALONG WITH AN OS6 LET ME KNOW THEY WERE THERE A YEAR LATER THEY WERE STILL THERE SO WE CALLED ON GOT THEM PURCHASED THAN WENT DOWN WITH A TRAILER AND GOT EM.  WHEN WE GOT THESE TRACTORS THEY WERE PRETTY ROUGH SHAPE NOT HAVE THE SIDE SHIELDS WERE BROUGHT IN HERE TO MY PLACE AND THEN I DECIDED TO KEEP THE OS6 AND HE TOOK THE O6 HOME TO MINNESOTA AND REBUILT IT THERE AND I HELPED HIM SOME THERE BUT HE DID MOST OF ALL WE FOUND SOME RED DIRT IN THE AIR CLEANER WHICH THE ONLY PLACE I COULD THINK OF A COME FROM IS OKLAHOMA AND MY SON-IN-LAW MENTIONED IT AND STEVE MENTIONED IT MIGHT COME FROM SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA WILL PROBABLY JUST CONTINUE TO SHOW BOTH OF THEM JUST GET EM OUT ON SUNDAY AND DRIVE EM AROUND NOW I HAVE HERROLD WITH THIS ONE ON MINE A LITTLE BIT BUT IF NOTHING NOT THE EASIEST TRACTOR DRIVER DOESN'T HAVE ANY STEERING ASSIST.
 

TEASE
THANKS SO MUCH. STILL TO COME, THE SENATE AG COMMITTEE IS  PREPARING TO MARKUP ITS VERSION OF THE FARM BILL  THIS WEEK. BUT WILL IT BE A REVOLUTIONARY BILL? WE  SIT DOWN WITH CHAIRMAN PAT ROBERTS NEXT.  

FARM JOURNAL REPORT
THE HOUSE PLANS TO REVOTE ON ITS VERSION OF THE FARM BILL LATER THIS MONTH, BUT IT'S THE SENATE'S  VERSION THAT -- UNTIL THIS WEEK-- NOONE HAD SEEN.  THE SENATE WRAPPED UP WRITING ITS FARM BILL LATE  WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH PLANS TO MARKUP THE BILL IN  COMMITTEE WEDNESDAY. WE HAD THE CHANCE TO SIT DOWN WITH CHAIRMAN  PAT ROBERTS AS HE AND OTHER LEADERS FINSHED  WRITING THE FARM BILL TO GET A INSIDE LOOK AT  WHAT THE 2018 FARM BILL MEANS FOR AGRICULTURE.  YOU DEFINITELY HAD YOUR WORK CUT OUT FOR YOU THIS YEAR WITH THE 2018 FARM BILL WE HAVEN'T SEEN THAT EXACT LANGUAGE YET BUT  HOW DO YOU FEEL ABOUT THE OVERALL BILL. I MEAN DO YOU FEEL LIKE IT  DOES ENOUGH FOR US AGRICULTURE. LET'S HOPE SO. THIS IS NOT A TIME  FOR A REVOLUTIONARY FARM BILL THIS IS MY EIGHTH FARM BILL. SO IT'S NOT  MY FIRST RODEO AND IT'S NOT THE FIRST RODEO OF THE DISTINGUISHED  RANKING MEMBER SENATOR STABENOW AS WELL AND WE WORK  TOGETHER IN THE PAST TO PRODUCE A BIPARTISAN BILL AND THAT'S WHAT  WE'RE TRYING TO DO.   WE'RE GOING THROUGH A ROUGH PATCH IN FARM COUNTRY.  ANYBODY THAT DOESN'T KNOW THAT HASN'T BEEN READING THE PRESS OR  WATCHING YOUR SHOW AND WE'RE TRYING TO ADDRESS THAT AND IT'S A  LOT LIKE COWBOY OUT WEST TOLD ME THAT PAT I DON'T CARE WHAT YOU DO TO ME JUST LET ME KNOW. THERE IS A GREAT FEELING THAT JUST  PASSED AN EXTENSION OF THE BILLS SO I CAN TELL MY LENDER YEAH, I  CAN LAST ANOTHER YEAR. FIFTH YEAR IN A ROW NOW LOW PRICES BELOW THE COST OF PRODUCTION WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW CROPS, A TRADE  POLICY THAT'S GOT A QUESTION MARK BEHIND IT AND NOT MANY SALES  AND JUST A LOT OF QUESTIONS OUT THERE. SO WE'RE TRYING TO GET A FARM BILL THAT ANSWERS THAT NEED AND TO PROVIDE FARMERS CERTAINTY  AND PREDICTABILITY. THOSE TWO THINGS ARE KEY AND TOWER ABOVE  MAYBE SOME OTHER ISSUES THAT PEOPLE WOULD LIKE TO GET INTO. SO THAT'S THE SELLING POINT I'M GOING TO TRY ON THE SENATE FLOOR ALONG  WITH DEBORAH AND WE HOPE THAT WORKS.   YOU MENTIONED CERTAINTY YOU MENTIONED PREDICTABILITY AND  THAT'S WHAT I CONTINUE TO HEAR FROM FARMERS AND RANCHERS AND SPECIFICALLY WHEN IT COMES TO CROP INSURANCE. WE KNOW CROP  INSURANCE HAS HAD A TARGET ON ITS BACK. WE'VE SEEN IT WITH THIS  CURRENT ADMINISTRATION. ARE YOU TRYING TO PERSERVE THEIR CROP  INSURANCE IN THE SENATE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL. WELL I GOT THE  PRESIDENT TO TAKE CROP INSURANCE OFF THE TABLE FOR THE FIRST YEAR.  AND I GUESS I WAS RETICENT NOT TO UNDERSTAND THAT I HAD TO DO THE  SAME THING FOR THE SECOND YEAR. BUT THAT BUDGET COUNTS AT LEAST IN TERMS OF A MARKER FROM THE PRESIDENT. BUT IT'S NOT THE BUDGET  WE DEAL, WITH WE DEAL WITH THE CBO BUDGET AND WE JUST GOT THE  NUMBERS. THE FIRST THING THAT FARMERS HAVE TOLD ME ALL OVER EVERYWHERE WE'VE TRAVELED TO TRY TO SIT ON THE WAGON TONGUE AND  ASK FARMERS WHAT DO YOU NEED. WHAT IS IT THAT WE HAVE TO  PROTECT. WHAT IS IT THAT YOU DID. MORE THAN ANYTHING ELSE. TOP  ISSUE AT THAT TIME IT WASN'T TRADE. THE TOP ISSUE THEN AND NOW IS CROP INSURANCE. I DON'T CARE WHERE YOU GO OR WHAT CROP OR WHAT REGION OF THE COUNTRY. WE'LL PROTECT CROP INSURANCE. WE ARE  TRYING TO MAKE SOME CORRECTIONS IN IT AND A MORE ACCURATE WAY  OF DETERMINING CROP INSURANCE BUT WE ARE NOT GOING TO CUT CROP INSURANCE. I KNOW THE PROPOSALS BY HEART, ALMOST, OF PEOPLE WHO DECLARE THEMSELVES INSTANT SECRETARIES OF AGRICULTURE WHEN  AGRICULTURE COMES UP AND THEY SAY OK, HERE'S ONE. WE'VE TRIED  THAT BEFORE LET'S DO IT AGAIN. WE'VE GOT TO STOP AND THINK. NOT THIS YEAR. THIS YEAR. WE CANNOT AFFORD TO DO THIS. YOU SAY ANYTHING  ABOUT CROP INSURANCE YOU'RE TALKING ABOUT LAND VALUES COMING  DOWN. SO THAT'S THE NUMBER ONE THING THAT WE'LL PROTECT IN THE FARM BILL.   YOU MENTIONED SNAP IN THE SENATE VERSION DID YOU  INCLUDE WORK REQUIREMENTS FOR SNAP? THE LAW RIGHT NOW IS A STATE CAN HAVE WORK REQUIREMENTS. KANSAS HAS A WORK  REQUIREMENT AND SO I DON'T THINK WE'RE GOING TO CHANGE THAT. I  THINK WE'RE GOING TO HAVE EXISTING LAW, WE'LL MAKE SOME EFFICIENCIES. WE CAN POINT OUT HOW WE CAN REALLY PROTECT THE  PROGRAM BY MAKING SURE ITS INTEGRITY IS WHERE IT SHOULD BE.  WE'VE HAD SOME PROBLEMS WITH THE BONUS PAYMENTS. WE'VE HAD STATES THAT REALLY GAMED THAT SYSTEM. THE INSPECTOR GENERAL OF  THE USDA HAS FINED STATES. WE CAN'T HAVE THAT. SO WE'RE GOING  TO HAVE TO CLEAN UP THAT BONUS PROGRAM AND TO GET THAT DONE. I THINK WE CAN SAY HERE IS A SNAP PROGRAM THAT EVERYBODY CAN  AGREE WOULD BE THE PROGRAM THAT WE CAN PASS. 8:25  WHEN YOU LOOK AT THE HOUSE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL, IT  WAS SUCH A PARTISAN VOTE. DO YOU FEEL LIKE THE SENATE VERSION OF THE FARM BILL HAS REACHED ACROSS THE AISLE ENOUGH THAT YOU DO  HAVE THE SUPPORT FROM THE DEMOCRATS TO GET THIS BILL THROUGH.  WELL WE CERTAINLY HOPE SO. THERE ARE PEOPLE WHO WILL VOTE AGAINST THE FARM BILL SIMPLY BECAUSE THEY WANT TO VOTE AGAINST  FARM BILL, AND A LOT OF THINK TANKS YOU KNOW BEHIND THEM. BUT  AGAIN OUR SITUATION IS SO DIRE AND WITH THE TRADE POLICY HAVING A QUESTION MARK AFTER IT, FARMERS WANT PREDICTABILITY UNCERTAINTY.  NOW DAUGHTER TO GET THAT. I'VE GOT TO HAVE 60 VOTES. WE HAVE TO  HAVE 60 VOTES. ALL OF US IN AGRICULTURE HAVE TO HAVE 60 VOTES IN THE SENATE. YOU'RE NOT GOING TO DO THAT UNLESS YOU REACH ACROSS  THE AISLE AND YOU MAKE IT A BIPARTISAN BILL. WE'VE DONE THAT IN  THE PAST. WE HAVE ALWAYS HAD A BIPARTISAN BILL. SOMETIMES IT'S BEEN TOUGHER, SOMETIMES IT HASN'T. I HOPE THIS TIME BECAUSE OF  THE EMERGENCY STATUS THAT I PUT THIS FARM BILL IN AND ALONG WITH  SENATOR STABENOW AND HER STAFF ARE WORKING VERY HARD TO GET 60 VOTES AND BE BIPARTISAN. WE HOPE WE GET A LOT MORE BY THE WAY  THAN 60. MY LAST QUESTION IS AS FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE SO  CONCERNED RIGHT NOW WHEN IT COMES TO TRADE AND WORRIES THAT WE WILL SEE INCREASED TARIFFS. WHAT DO YOU WANT AGRICULTURE AND WHAT  DO YOU WANT FARMERS AND RANCHERS TO KNOW? I WANT TO KNOW THAT  WE'RE GOING TO GET THEM A GOOD FARM BILL. I WANT TO THEM TO KNOW THEY CAN GO TO THEIR BANKER OR THEIR LENDER WHOEVER IT IS A  COOPERATIVE AND SIT DOWN WITH THAT INDIVIDUAL AND SAY HEY I'M  GOING TO BE ALL RIGHT NEXT YEAR AND THEN I WANT TO DO THAT THING THAT THEY DO BEST, AND THAT'S TO PLANT, WHETHER YOU'RE A FARMER OR  A RANCHER GROWER OR PEOPLE UP AND DOWN MAIN STREET OR THE  BANKER OR WHATEVER WE'RE GOING TO BE FINE. WE'RE GOING TO COMPETE AND WE'RE GOING TO GET THIS TRADE POLICY WORKED OUT.   IN ADDITION TO SITTING DOWN WITH THE SENATOR THIS  WEEK, I ALSO SPENT TIME AT THE WHITE HOUSE, TALKING TO CABINET MEMBERS AND OTHER OFFICIALS.  I WAS THERE WEDNESDAY, THE MORNING AFTER THE  TRUMP ADMINSTRATION MAKING A LST MINUTE  DECISION TO NOT RELEASE AN ANTICIPATED BIOEFUELS  PLAN TO ALLOW THE SALE OF E15 YEAR ROUND, WHILE  SLAPPIGN RINS ON EXPORTS.   WHILE IOWA SENATORS AND AG SECRETARY SONNY  PERDUE APPLAUDED THE PRESIDENT'S MOVE, THE  BIOFUELS PLAN MAY JUST BE ON THE BACKBURNER,  VERSUS OFF THE TABLE.  WELL THE PRESIDENT TOLD ME LAST NIGHT HE WAS NOT GOING TO  SIGN ANYTHING THAT FARMERS WEREN'T HAPPY WITH IT. YOU KNOW  THERE'S BEEN SOME CONCERN OVER ATTACHING RINS TO THE EXPORT  CREDITS THERE. AND I TOLD HIM AND COMMUNICATE HIM THAT WAS  GOING TO BE A LACK OF JOY EVEN WITH THE E15 WAIVER WHICH WE'VE  BEEN WANTING FOR SEVERAL YEARS. MUTING THAT WITH THE EXPORT RINS  WAS GOING TO REALLY CANCEL THE PARTY. SO I THINK HE UNDERSTOOD THAT AND HIS COMMITMENT TO ME - I THINK AS WELL AS THE SENATORS -  WAS THAT HE DIDN'T PLAN TO SIGN ANYTHING THAT THE FARMERS WEREN'T  HAPPY WITH AND I THINK THAT'S AGAIN A SUPPORT THAT HE'S TRIED TO GIVE OUR FARMERS ALL ALONG AND FULFILL HIS COMMITMENT TO RFS HE  MADE DURING THE CAMPAIGN.> PERDUE SAYS HE'S FRUSTRATED WITH EPA'S USE OF 'HARDSHIP WAIVERS' AND VIEWS THE ACTION AS A  CIRUMVENTION TO THE PRESIDENT'S SUPPORT OF THE  RFS. BUT I ALSO TALKED WITH THE LEGISLATIVE DIRECTOR  AT THE WHITE HOUSE THIS WEEK. PRESSING HIM ON IN  ORDER TO GET E-15, IF THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY WOUL  DHAVE TO GIVE UP SOME CONCESSIONS.   I DON'T KNOW THE ANSWER TO THAT YET. I THINK THE  PRESIDENT WANTS TO GET E15 YEAR ROUND. BUT I THINK HE ALSO BELIEVES THAT SOME OF THE RINS ARE PRETTY ARTIFICIAL. IT'S NOT REALLY  A MARKET THAT'S DETERMINING THE PRICE OF THOSE RINS. SO YOU  WANT TO FIND SOME ACCOMMODATION FOR REFINERS THAT ARE HAVING TO  TRADE ON THOSE.> SHORT SAID CONGRESS DOES HAVE THE AUTHORITY TO  PUSH THROUGH LEGISLATION TO ALLOW THE SALE OF  E15 YEAR ROUND, BUT HE SAYS FINDING 60 VOTES TO GET THAT THROUGH LOOKS UNLIKELY RIGHT NOW UP NEXT, A LOOK AT THE WHEAT MARKET WITH OUR  GUESTS.  

ROUNDTABLE 2
WELCOME BACK. WELL EARLIER IN THE SHOW WE REPORTED ON  OUR AMBASSADORS POSSIBLE BIOFUELS CHANGES THAT DID NOT COME  FROM THE WHITE HOUSE THIS WEEK BUT THERE WAS A LOT OF ANTICIPATION AROUND IT. HOWEVER REALLY DIDN'T SEE IT MOVE THE  MARKETS. WE HAD THE ETHANOL INDUSTRY REALLY CELEBRATING CALLING IT  A WIN. THE FACT THAT WE DIDN'T SEE RIN'S TIED TO EXPORTS. BUT AT THE  SAME TIME WE DIDN'T SEE 15 YEAR ROUND. DID THE MARKET VIEW THIS AS A WIN OR A LOSS OR JUST YOU KNOW CALL IT EVEN. RIGHT NOW I'D CALL  IT JUST THERE'S A LOT OF NOISE IN THE MARKET AND SO UNTIL WE ACTUALLY HAVE THE I GUESS A DEFINITIVE ANSWER IT'S JUST A CONVERSATION AND  PEOPLE PAY A LOT OF MONEY TO HAVE THESE GROUPS HI5 EACH OTHER  AND STUFF BUT IT'S NOT WORKING AND WHERE WE DON'T REALLY KNOW. BRIAN BROUGHT UP A POINT THAT WILL PROBABLY HAVE AN ANSWER AFTER  SUMMER DRIVING SEASON AND YOU KNOW IT WON'T BE QUITE AS  IMPORTANT THEN SO AND EXPORTS ETHANOL EXPORTS WE'VE SEEN THOSE INCREASE A LITTLE BIT BUT IT'S ALSO NOT ENOUGH TO REALLY DRIVE THIS  CORN MARKET AT THIS POINT. NO YOU KNOW THE DEMAND ON THE USER  SIDE HAS BEEN VERY GOOD THAT'S ONE OF THE POSITIVE SIDES OF THE STORY RIGHT NOW. BUT I THINK THE MARKET IS GOING TO BE SO MUCH  MORE FOCUSED ON THE SUPPLY SIDE OF THE BALANCE SHEET FOR THE  NEXT 30 DAYS THAT WE KNOW DEMAND IS GOOD.  BUT THE BALANCE SHEET IS GOING TO MOVE MUCH FASTER ON THE SUPPLY SIDE FOR THE NEXT 30 45 DAYS AND SO WHEN WE START  LOOKING AT THE JULY WISE TO REPORT IN THE AUGUST WISE TO REPORT THE  YIELD ON THE CROP IS GOING TO HAVE THE MOST AND LARGEST RAMIFICATIONS ON WHAT WE'RE GOING TO SEE BIG PICTURE FOR  SOYBEANS ARE WE ALSO WATCHING SUPPLIER. WE STILL FOCUSED ON DEMAND DO YOU THINK SOYBEANS WERE A DIFFERENT STORY WITH WHAT  HAPPENED IN ARGENTINA. WE SAW THE JULY MONTH TRADE OVER 40  SOME CENTS OVER NOVEMBER WHICH IS JUST SCREAMING SELL YOU'RE BEING SOLD THROUGH BASIS AND PRICE BUT MORE FLAT PRICE THE  MARKET WON THE BEINGS IN THE WORLD. WE RALLIED OUR MARKET TO IF  YOU'RE STILL HOLDING SOYBEANS I'M SHOCKED. I DON'T KNOW WHAT YOU  WERE WAITING FOR IN BOTH THROUGH THE PRICE STRUCTURE AND SAME  THING WITH CORN YOU KNOW WHAT HAPPENS I THINK SOMETIMES IN CORN. SO THE AMERICAN FARMER WORKS SO HARD TO GET THE CROP IN  AND THEN GET IT SPRAYED IN THIS AND THAT THEN ALL OF A SUDDEN  THEY'RE LIKE OH I HAVE OLD CROP BUSHELS TO BRING IN. AND SO BUT THROUGH FLAT PRICE BASIS I THINK WE'VE MISSED OUR BEST OR AT LEAST  HAD OUR BEST OPPORTUNITY LAST FEW MONTHS TO GET THAT CORN SOLD  BUT GUYS WERE BUSY FARM AND THERE'S A LABOR SHORTAGE IN  AMERICA AND IT'S HARD TO GET TRUCKS AND WE GOT THIS NEW LAW WITH  THE YOU CAN ONLY DRIVE SO MUCH. I HEAR GUYS COMPLAINING ABOUT  JUST NOT HAVING ENOUGH MANPOWER TO GET EVERYTHING DONE. WE  ALSO HEARD SOME MORE NEWS ON THAT ON THE TRADE FRONT THAT  POSSIBLY CHINA AGREED TO TAKE MORE AG GOODS IF THE U.S.  DOESN'T SLAP THOSE 50 BILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF TARIFFS. HOWEVER AGAIN JUST A HEADLINE NOTED DEFINITIVE ANSWER ON THAT.  AND SO UNTIL WE GET A MORE DEFINITIVE ANSWER COULD THAT  THEN MOVE COMMODITY MARKETS BECAUSE RIGHT NOW I MEAN WHEN  YOU LOOK AT THESE DOUBLE DIGIT LOSSES LIKE FOR SOYBEANS IT'S  STRUGGLING WITHOUT A DOUBT WE'RE STRUGGLING THE JULY CONTRACT IS  VERY CLOSE TO THE LOWS FOR THE YEAR AND THESE ARE LOWS WE MADE IN JANUARY. SO YOU KNOW THESE ARE LEVELS THAT WE WANT TO SEE  HOLD IN THE VERY BIG PICTURE AND I THINK THEY SHOULD. BUT YOU  KNOW THIS IS ALL HEADLINE RISK RIGHT NOW SO YOU'VE GOT ALGORITHMS  THAT ARE PROGRAMMED TO READ HEADLINES AND TRADE BASED OFF OF  THAT BUT UNTIL WE HAVE AN ACTUAL DEFINITIVE ANSWER I MEAN THIS IS JUST LIP SERVICE. AND YOU KNOW WE'RE JUST GOING BACK AND FORTH  BUT WE NEED SOME CONCRETE ACTUAL NEWS AND CLEARLY DEFINED  RESULTS. I FEEL LIKE WE'VE TALKED ABOUT A LOT OF NEGATIVES THIS WEEKEND. SO IS THERE A SILVER LINING IN THIS HUGE SILVER LINING IS  THAT DEMANDS GREAT. NOBODY'S REALLY MAKING A LOT OF MONEY IN  AGRICULTURE BUT THE DEMAND FOR OUR PRODUCTS IS PHENOMENAL. AND THE BALANCE SHEET FOR CORN JUST LOOKS TOTALLY DIFFERENT MOVING AND  THEN 19 AND 20 THEN IT HAS THE LAST FOUR YEARS. YOU AGREE WITH  THAT BRIAN. I DO I THINK OUR DEMAND BASE IS SO STRONG RIGHT NOW AND WE'VE SEEN THE END USER ACCUSTOMED TO HAVING BASICALLY ALL  THE PRODUCT THAT YOU COULD WANT TO SEE AND YOU KNOW NO NEED TO  GET EXTREME FORWARD COVERAGE YOU CAN BUY HAND-TO-MOUTH AND PRICES HAVE BEEN DEPRESSED FOR A WHILE SO WE KNOW WE'RE VERY  USED TO HAVING THE PRODUCT AVAILABLE AND IF THERE'S ANY KIND OF A  SCARE YOU KNOW THINGS CAN JUMP PRETTY QUICKLY REALLY QUICK.  SPEAKING OF SCARE SPEAKING OF THINGS JUMPING QUICKLY THE  WHEAT MARKET WE SAW THE WHEAT MARKET CLIMB EARLIER THIS WEEK  DOES THAT JUST HAVE TO DEAL WITH RUSSIA OR REALLY WHAT'S DRIVING THAT. WELL I THINK RIGHT NOW NO ONE REALLY HAS A VERY GOOD HANDLE  ON WHAT THE RUSSIAN CROP LOOKS LIKE. AND SO YOU KNOW IT'S  PROBABLY BUY FIRST AND ASK QUESTIONS LATER. WE'VE GOT SOME  ISSUES IN AUSTRALIA AND WHETHER OR NOT THEIR FORECAST IS VIABLE FOR  RAIN. BUT THAT SEEMS TO BE THE LEADER OF THE PACK RIGHT NOW. ALL  RIGHT WELL YOU CAN HEAR MORE OF OUR DISCUSSION BY VISITING ADLAND DOT COM. THANK YOU BOTH FOR TUNING IN. ALL RIGHT. STAY TUNED WITH  MORE ON THIS FARM REPORT NEXT.  

BAXTER BLACK
WE SPENT A LOT OF TIME OUT EAST IN WASHINGTON, IT'S NOW TIME  NOW FOR A TRIP OUT WEST TO VISIT BAXTER  BLACK. A LOT OF FARMERS AND RANCHERS ARE ENTREPRENEURS AND I'VE NEVER  REALLY BEEN BRAVE ENOUGH TO TRY THAT. I WORKED FOR WAGES ALL MY  LIFE AND OTHER PEOPLE'S STUFF. AND THE OUTFITS I HIRED ONTO IT DIDN'T  MAKE YOU PUNCH YOUR CLOCK IT YOUR WORKING DAY FINISHED. LIKE THE FEEDLOTS IN THE FALL. A ROLL EM CAVES IN ON IT AND THEY'D JUST WALK  THE FENCE AND LOL. WE CHECKED THE PANTS POLE A SICK AND PUSH  AND TREAT AND RIDE AND THEN PROCESS NEW ARRIVALS KEPT COMING  LIKE THE TIME OF CAMELOT A HALF OR SO MISERABLE SOME TIME. IT'S  SOMETHING THAT I'M GOOD AT AND IT'S LIKE SHE'S SORT OF MINE. SHE  KNOWS I AIN'T THE OWNER. BUT WE'RE NOT IN THE PROTOCOL. SHE SHE'S  A COW AND I'M A COWBOY AND I GUESS THAT SAYS IT ALL. I'VE GOT NO  TRUCK WITH POLITICIANS WHO WHINE AND CRITICIZE ABOUT CORPORATE  AGRIBUSINESS. I GUESS THEY DON'T REALIZE SOMEBODY HAS GOT TO OWN THEM THAT CAN PAY THE ENTRY FEE. WHY DO YOU THINK IT'S UP TO  DOTA. HIRAL LIKE ME ALL ABOUT A SET OF WHOEVER WANTS MAYBE 15  YEARS AGO. I HELD HIM FOR A CAB AND THEN I HAD TO LET HIM GO BECAUSE ALL I DID WAS WORRY ABOUT HOW TO PAY THE BILLS. THE FUN  OUT OF COWPUNCHER. I DON'T NEED THEM KIND OF THRILLS THOUGH. I  WOULDN'T MIND DOWN ON ME A LITTLE HIDEAWAY. SO WHEN SOME OUTFIT LAID ME OFF NOT HAVE SOME PLACE TO STAY BUT I FIGURE I'M JUST  LUCKY TO BE SATISFIED AT HEART THAT I'M DOING WHAT I'M GOOD AT AND  I'M PLAYING A SMALL PART IN A WORLD IS COMPLICATED WHERE THE BALANCES FIGHT IT OUT WITH ACCOUNTANTS AND CONSULTANTS AND THEIR  COUNTERPARTS WITH CLOUT. THEY'RE SO BUSY BEING BOSSES THEY GOT  NO TIME TO SPARE SOMEHOW. SO THEY HAVE TO HIRE SOMEONE LIKE ME TO GO OUT AND PUNCH THEIR HOUSE. THIS IS BAXTER BLACK FROM  OUT THERE. THANKS, BAXTER. YOU CAN HEAR MORE FROM BAXTER ONLIEN AT BAXTERBLACK.COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, JOHN HAS  MORE TALK ON NO-TILL. CUSTOMER SUPPORT IS NEXT.  

CUSTOMER SUPPORT
IT'S THE TOPIC OF TILLAGE THAT OFTEN SPARKS QUITE  THE RESPONSE FROM OUR VIEWS. AND IT'S NO TILL ON  THE AGENDA FOR CUSTOMER SUPPORT THIS WEEK.  BILL AND MOLLY JOSEPH, FROM ALEDO, ILLINOIS HELP WITH INFORMATION  ABOUT NO-TILL. "DURING YOUR SEGMENT ON NO-TILL VS. OTHER TYPES OF TILLAGE, MY  HUSBAND AND I WERE SURPRISED BY YOUR COMMENT ABOUT LACK OF  TILLAGE INFORMATION. YOU STATED YOUR FRIEND WITH EXPERIENCE  SERVING ON A "STATE CONSERVATION ORGANIZATION "STATED HE DIDN'T THINK THERE WAS MUCH INFORMATION ON TILLAGE PRACTICES IN ILLINOIS.  MY HUSBAND WAS A 33 YEAR RESOURCE CONSERVATIONIST OF THE  MERCER COUNTY SOIL AND WATER DISTRICT. HE PERFORMED A TRANSECT SURVEY OVER 20 OF THOSE YEARS. THE SURVEY COLLECTS THAT EXACT INFORMATION AND COMPILES IT ON THE ILLINOIS DEPARTMENT OF  AGRICULTURE WEB SITE. THE TRANSECT SURVEY REPORT CONTAINS THE  RESULTS FOR 4 CATEGORIES OF TILLAGE PRACTICES BY COUNTY. IT IS AN  INTERESTING READ AND PROVIDES AN OVERVIEW OF TILLAGE TRENDS BACK  SEVERAL YEARS." THANKS FOR WRITING, AND I WILL BEND MY RULE ABOUT ONLY ONE MUG IS  YOU SEND AN ADDRESS. I WENT BACK AND CHECKED AND WHAT I SAID  WAS THE DATA WERE SPARSE, AND I WAS REFERRING TO THE NATIONAL PICTURE. HOWEVER, FOR ILLINOIS AT LEAST, THE TRANSECT SURVEYS DO  SHED CONSIDERABLE LIGHT ON TILLAGE PRACTICES. WHILE THESE SURVEYS  COUNT FIELDS - NOT ACRES - DONE CONSISTENTLY, THEY PROVIDE THE BEST PICTURE WE HAVE ABOUT TRENDS. HERE'S IS WHAT THOSE SURVEYS REVEALED. I ZEROED IN ON TILLAGE PRACTICES FOR CORN, WHICH HAS THE LOWEST LEVEL OF NO-TILL USE, AND  HENCE IS THE MOST ACCURATE ESTIMATE OF CONTINUOUS NO-TILL. THE  USE OF NO-TILL FOR SOYBEANS IS HIGHER, BUT MY RULE IS NO-TILL EVERY  OTHER YEAR IS NOT WHAT TRUE PROPONENTS OF NO-TILL ADVOCATE. NOTE  THE TRENDLINE. MY HUNCH WOULD SEEM TO BE ACCURATE - NO-TILL IS ABOUT 1/6 OF ILLINOIS ACRES AND HASN'T REALLY CHANGED MUCH FOR  NEARLY A QUARTER CENTURY. I LOOKED AT A COUPLE OF OTHER STATES, BUT  I COULD NOT FIND SERIES OF SIMILAR TRANSECT SURVEYS FOR EITHER  MINNESOTA OR IOWA FOR COMPARISON. IF SOME ELSE CAN POINT ME  THERE, I WOULD APPRECIATE IT. THIS WILL NOT END THE DEBATE ABOUT WHETHER NO-TILL SHOULD BE THE  WAY WE GROW OUR CROPS, BUT IT DOES SEEM TO INDICATE OUR TOUTING  NO-TILL AS HOW FARMERS ARE RESPONDING TO ENVIRONMENTAL CONCERNS  LIKE NUTRIENT LOSS IS AT BEST STRETCHING THE TRUTH. THANKS, JOHN. REMEMBER, IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS  OR COMMENTS FOR JOHN, EMAIL HIM AT MAILBAG AT U- S FARM REPORT DOT COM. WHEN WE COME BACK, WHEAT HARVEST IS GOING STRONG IN THE EAST.  PICTURES ARE NEXT.  

FROM THE FARM
WELCOME BACK. WHEAT HARVEST IS IN FULL SWING FOR SOME OF OUR VIEWRS.  DONNA HARRELL OF EDENTON, NORTH CAROLINA SAYS SHE WAS WATCHING HER DAD AND BROTHER HARVEST  WHEAT WITH A BEAUTIFUL SUNSET AS THE BACKDROP.  USDA SAYS 3 PERCENT OF THE CROP IS HARVESTED, 4  POINTS BEHIND AVERAGE.  AND QUENTIN SHIELDKNIGHT SAYS IT'S BEEN A VERY  FRUSTRATING YEAR IN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. IT'S  BEEN DRY, BUT DUE TO HAIL AND OTHER SEVERE  WEATHER, HE SAYS HE HAD TO REPLANT THIS WEEK.  AMARILLO AREA HAD 19 DAYS IN MAY ABOVE 90 DEGREES. THAT COMPARES TO 2 DAYS IN MAY THAT  BROKE THE 90 DEGREE MARK LAST YEAR.  AND LOUIE NIGG SAYS IT'S A GOOD HAY CRPO THIS  YEAR IN SOUTH DAKOTA. IT'S THEIR FIRST CUTTING OF  THE YEAR.  MIKE WE TALKED ABOUT IT A LITTLE BIT ON THE ROUNDTABLE'S BUT  HEARING SOME CHATTER ABOUT DRYNESS AND SOIL MOISTURE ARE REALLY DEPLETED AND SOME TRYING TO COMPARE TO 2012. I MEAN DO YOU  THINK THIS IS A 20. I DON'T SEE THAT AT ALL. WE'VE BEEN THINKING THAT  ALL ALONG IN THIS SITUATION I KNOW WE KEEP HEARING THOSE TYPES OF  RUMORS. BUT AT THIS POINT I JUST SEE TOO MANY COMPLEXES OF  THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THAT CUTS DOWN ON THE EXTREME HEAT  AND THE DRYNESS. ALL RIGHT. THANKS MIKE. WELL IF YOU HAVE A  PICTURE OR A VIDEO YOU WOULD LIKE TO SEND THEN YOU CAN DO THAT TO  THE ADDRESS ON THE SCREEN. 

CLOSE
AND FROM ALL OF US U.S. FARM REPORT  ON MY KOFFMAN AND I'M TIME MORGAN. THANK YOU FOR WATCHING.  BE SURE TO JOIN US AGAIN RIGHT HERE NEXT WEEK AS WE WORK TO BUILD ON OUR TRADTION. HAVE A GREAT WEEKEND EVERYONE.  

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