EHedger Afternoon Grain Commentary 11/13/12
Nov 13, 2012
CBOT markets had a choppy two sided trading session with December corn and November soybeans leading the way higher. The November-January soybean spread was up 13 cents today closing at +19 cents! This front month strength helped January soybeans close 3 cents higher but the back month contracts all closed lower. December corn closed 5 ½ cents higher while December 2013 corn closed 1 cent lower.
January soybeans traded all the way down to $13.91 ¼ before finding support. That’s over a $1 from the pre-report price. The USDA’s higher production estimate certainly had the biggest downside influence but we are also contending with the recent slowdown in export demand. Until we see crush margins improve in China the bulls may be a little hesitant to jump back into the market. We did see a strong export inspections report for soybeans this morning. Expectations were calling for 56 million bushels and soybeans came in at 64.0! For this season we have exported approx 120 million bushels of soybeans more than we did at this time last year. Corn and wheat inspections were below estimates. Friday morning we will get export sales data which is still a major indicator for direction.
Tomorrow morning we will see OCT NOPA CRUSH estimates released at 7:30 am. The average guess is 147.713 million bushels with a wide range of trade estimates from 138 – 153. The September crush was 119.732 million bushels and October of last year was 141.179 million. Oil stocks are guessed at 2.090. We will have this report in the morning letter and automated phone call.
South American weather looks favorable on today’s morning and midday forecasts.
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Chart: Dec Corn (next gap fill at $6.76)
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