Wednesday's Grain Market Recap
Oct 19, 2011
Grain prices fell into the close after a general "risk-off" liquidation in a number of commodity and equity markets. December corn finished 5 ½ cents lower at $6.38 ½, November beans 25 ¾ cents lower at $12.25, and December wheat down 5 ¾ cents at $6.19 ½.
November soybeans lead the way lower on rumors of a Chinese crusher cancelling 2 cargos of soybeans. Even with soybeans sharply lower for much of the day, corn and wheat managed to stay positive for much of the day but had a sharp selloff in the last 15 minutes.
Export sales will be released tomorrow morning. I have included the following estimates:
Corn 1,800,000 MTs - 2,500,000 MTs
Soybeans 750,000 MTs - 1,100,000 MTs
Wheat 450,000 MTs - 650,000 MTs
We will have actual export sales in tomorrow’s morning letter.
At this point we aren't expecting further yield reductions from the current USDA estimated levels. For the market to kickstart fund buying again we may need to see a major shift in demand. The market continues to find resistance on rallies which may be a result of more fund liquidation. We will get their latest activity listed on the Commitment of Traders report on Friday. For now we like re-owning bean hedges with January calls, and holding off on any more corn/wheat calls until we see a further setback.
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