Weather Forecast and News

60% of U.S. Now Facing Moderate to Exceptional Drought

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:54:03 GMT

The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.

(NOAA/NWS)

The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA , which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the Western plains is parched and in need of a rain.

(NASA)

Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.

Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint

“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass , senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”

In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.

“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”

Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned

In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”

(USDA)

Any Relief in the Forecast?

Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.

“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.

Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.

Weather Extremes Take Their Toll on the Winter Wheat Crop

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 13:02:29 GMT

While winter wheat is a crop that seems to have nine lives, the dramatic weather extremes are taking a toll on the crop.

Winter wheat may have already been damaged in January and February due to extreme cold and the lack of snow cover in many areas.

Throw on top of that freezing temperatures at the start of the week and now heat and continued dry conditions, which are stressing the crop.

Freeze Damage Early This Week
Freeze damage was noted in Texas up through Kansas with below freezing temperatures to start the week according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading and a farmer near Dodge City, Kansas, then followed by a huge warm up.

“Out here in Dodge City, Kansas, you know, over the weekend, I woke up Monday morning, I think it was 10 degrees out here. So not what you want to see the middle of March when that growing point starting to come above the surface out here. A lot of vegetation protecting that growing point, I think. But if you drive around these fields out here and you can see some of the damage to the vegetation from that freeze event, then you turn around and we’ve got 90 degree days here coming into the week. So weather is pretty dynamic and wild.”

Already Freeze Damage in January and February
And there was already possible freeze damage in January and February due to the lack of snow cover accordign to Drew Lerner, ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc.:

“And there is some concern that there’s damage done out there. And having a warm and dry spring season is the absolute worst thing to do for a possibly damaged wheat crop. You need it to rain. It’s got to rain a little bit more frequently than usual, and the temperatures need to be kept in a mild regime. Instead, we’re going to be seeing quite the opposite. It’s going to be quite warm at times.”

Drought Monitor Tells the Story
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 55% of U.S. winter wheat areas in some level of drought which is further stressing the crop according to Huck.

‘Right now the big problem out here in the west regarding weather is drought and will the rains come,” he says.

(USDA )

On Monay the state ratings showed Oklahoma with only 18% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 6% from the previous week and the lowest level since 2018.

In Texas only 15% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1%.

Lerner says the crop conditions are deteriorating further with the extreme weather. “The temperatures have been so warm that we have evaporated huge amounts of moisture from the soil, leaving that crop limping along.”

Forecast Continues the Pattern
And unfortunately the forecast looks to stay warm and dry for the next 8 to 14 days.

U.S. HRW wheat dryness is expected to intensify through at least next weekend as upper-level high pressure blocks energy and low humidities persist.

That will be accompanied by heat into the weekend and then next Tuesday through Thursday.

A large system likely moves across the central U.S. at some point March 31 - April 5, but it is unclear if it will move slowly with good rains for HRW wheat.

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:47:18 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:37:03 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Record Breaking Winter Storm Fern Slams Farmers and Ranchers in 28 States

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 02:51:12 GMT

Winter Storm Fern will go down in the record books with a large swath of the U.S. and farm country blanketed with a foot or more of snow, ice and record-breaking cold.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag senior science fellow, says: “We had 28 states under at least an ice storm warning or a winter storm warning. And the thing started in New Mexico and finished in Maine and along the way dumped a tremendous amount of snow. A massive ice storm that stretched from what Dallas to Memphis to Nashville.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Hundreds of Thousands Without Power

That heavy ice caused hundreds of thousands of power outages that will last for days or even weeks in some areas. Early estimates on Monday morning by PowerOutage.com put total power outages at over 782,000 customers, mainly across the Southeast U.S. The hardest hit states included Tennessee at just under 250,000 and Mississippi and Maine at nearly 150,000. By Monday evening total power outages were still at more than 550,000.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Record Low Temperatures

Farmers and ranchers worked over the weekend to protect livestock from this historic winter blast. Hundreds of locations also surpassed unofficial daily records for low temperatures. That combined with dangerous wind chills, stressed livestock and hurt performance and health.

Snodgrass says, “I mean, 30 to 40 degrees colder than normal. I mean, I saw wind chills in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state. wind chills in Wisconsin down to minus 55 over the weekend, and that’s a pretty brutal setup for humans and livestock alike.”

Livestock Producers Work Overtime to Protect Herds

Northwest Louisiana cattle producer Mitch Marsalis worked over the weekend to keep his beef cattle warm with extra grain and feed. “We’re trying to get these calves back to pasture and get everything set up to get them fed, get them some warmth and some food in their bodies to keep them warm during this weather.”

However, the Claiborne Parish rancher told Josh Meeks at This Week in Louisiana Agriculture the 25-degree temperatures are harder on ranchers than livestock. “They’re cold right now, but they’re not as cold as we are. They’re acclimated to this weather a little bit better than we are. You know, they’re not sitting in the house, 70 degrees and then walk outside and get that shock about them and all.”

10 Points to Consider When Managing Cattle Through Cold Stress

Tips to Prevent Hypothermia in Calves

Grain Movement and Processing Also Slowed

Fern has also slowed grain movement from trucks to barges. Plus, ethanol and soybean processing plants have slowed production to conserve margins with surging natural gas prices.

Winter Wheat Winter Kill Concerns

Plus, winter kill is possible in winter wheat in areas like Kansas, says Snodgrass, where the deep freeze was preceded by above average temperatures. “I think the only saving grace is there’s now a little skiff of snow and in eastern Kansas even more than that sitting on top of the ground and on top of the wheat as the Arctic air spills all the way down to the Rio Grande. So I think it’s going to be one of those things where like well in April we will see if there was any damage or any problems.”

How Long Will Polar Vortex Last?

Snodgrass says the bad news is this polar vortex could stick around for a while. “We’ve displaced the polar vortex. It’s now sitting over like the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay. We’ve pinched off warm air over the Arctic, which means we’re displacing it right down the heart of North America. And we’re going to continue to deal with this to finish this month and I think even start February.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Analog Year in 2014

And so Snodgrass thinks this polar vortex could be similar to analog year of 2014 where the polar vortex was prolonged through February.

La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 15:35:19 GMT

La Niña might have been the only hope for a production problem in South America to trim their record soybean crop outlook. However, Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist and senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag, told farmers at the South Dakota Soybean Ag Outlook meeting in Sioux Falls, La Niña is starting to weaken — and along with it, the possibility of production problems in South America.

“I’m worried about La Niña already running its course. What I mean by that is normally La Niña’s build through December, peaks around the holidays and then wanes in February. This one’s already starting to back off,” Snodgrass explains.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also issued their outlook for La Niña this week, which includes the weather pattern persisting for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026. That does not mean much for U.S. weather, but it could limit precipitation during South America’s growing season. However, it would fade in South America after the most critical part of the soybean reproductive phase, so if there is an impact in Brazil it would likely be to the second crop corn.

In a La Niña pattern , stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an up-welling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts note.

As such, Snodgrass says he’s cautious about the South American forecast during their critical soybean production phase in January and February.

“Normally if you’re saying, what’s La Niña do, it means a wet Brazil and dry Argentina. El Nino flips it around. I don’t know where we’re going to be because we’re transitioning toward neutral conditions quickly, which means we’re going to have to watch other sub-seasonal factors. If the markets are going to follow weather, they’re going to be on a two -week schedule,” according to Snodgrass.

It’s Raining in Brazil

In the past two weeks, Brazil has been getting needed rains in main production areas, so dryness is no longer a concern. While its early, Snodgrass doesn’t see many production problems and neither do market analysts.

“I look at NDVI values,” he says. “They don’t look off. They’re closer to average.”

Brian Grete, grain and livestock analyst with Commstock Investments, says Brazil has seen thunderstorms over a wide area in the past 10 to 20 days.

“Some of the drier areas have received rains. The rains have come through central Brazil, northeastern Brazil and east-central Brazil, but the Southern areas have turned dry,” he adds.

There’s more rain in Brazil’s forecast in the next 14 days as several cool fronts pass, with 100% to 200% of normal rainfall predicted for all but Rio Grade do Sul in the South, which accounts for nearly 15% of Brazil’s soybean production. Grete says.

“We’ll have to watch that Southern area of Brazil to see if it continues to remain dry, which the forecast suggests through the end of this month,” he adds.

Meanwhile, Argentina is expected to get 50% of normal rainfall the next 14 days, but there are no real concerns there either.

(NASA)

Conab Adjusts Brazil Crop Slightly

On Thursday, CONAB left Brazil corn production nearly unchanged at 138.879 MMT, which is below expectations of 140.96 MMT. The agency cut soybean production from last month by about 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 MMT, mainly due to slightly lower acreage. That was below the expected 179.2 MMT. However, this still a record crop of more than 6.5 billion bushels. CONAB cited some replanting last month due to irregular rainfall, but rains have normalized in most areas of Brazil, and with La Niña starting to fade they may be on pace to hit that record soybean estimate.

Rosario Grain Exchange Leaves Argentina Crop Unchanged

The Rosario Grain Exchange left their corn production estimate at 61 MMT with 57% of the crop planted. The exchange also left soybean production unchanged at 47 MMT and reported 64% of the country had the crop seeded.

Meteorologists forecast the current weak La Niña could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, notes crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. That hasn’t yet materialized, he adds, and crops are doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent.

Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he says. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.

The Key to Reversing Low River Levels and Shoring Up Critical Infrastructure

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:14:20 GMT

Mississippi River levels are low this fall season—for the third year in a row.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” says Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics. “October is a critical month for barge transportation in the Mississippi River Basin. This is especially the case in the agricultural sector as crops are harvested in the Midwest and transported mainly by barge to New Orleans.”

He says this year’s river levels mimic 2024 conditions. Barge restrictions were put in place in September, and currently, the low-water restrictions for southbound vessels on the Lower Mississippi River from the U.S. Coast Guard include:

• Cairo, Ill., to Lake Providence, La., MM 869-483: Drafts no greater than 10'6" and barges no more than six wide.

• Lake Providence, La., to the Gulf of Mexico, MM 483-303: Drafts no greater than 11' and barges no more than six wide.

“August was a very dry month in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt and in the Delta, and in mid- to late August, we began to see that response in the river system overall. That was the time frame we began to watch things very closely,” Davis says. “Based on September being very dry, it looked like the overall decline in river levels was going to continue and we’re going to get into a bit more of a restrictive environment, which would certainly impact logistics on the river system.”

The weather patterns of the past seven weeks accelerated river level issues.

“The combination of recent warmth and long-term dryness has led to this decline in river levels, and if we look at the river levels now compared with the last 10 years, we’re at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen,” Davis adds.

Ohio River at Cairo, Ill. Oct 1, 2025

(USGS)

Mississippi River at Dubuque, Iowa on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Davis says there’s not much recharge for the river in the forecast — and the greatest source for getting levels back up is unfortunately a tropical system, such as a hurricane.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Mississippi River at New Orleans on Oct. 1

(USGS)

“That’s what helped last year—the storms that developed in October,” he says.

Looking at the forecast, the next seven to 10 days doesn’t show much promise for precipitation along the Mississippi River Valley or the Ohio River Valley, which notably feeds the lower Mississippi. However, the end of October could turn wetter, which might slow the finish of harvest but could recharge the vital artery in our inland waterways.

How Much Could the Flash Drought Cut Corn and Soybean Yields Due to a Poor Finish?

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:47:17 GMT

August was one of the driest in history for some areas of the U.S. — like Ohio and Indiana. The onset of flash drought may have trimmed yield potential for both corn and soybeans, and it could also result in an earlier start to harvest.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says it was an abrupt change from too much rain early in the season.

“All of a sudden, the Bermuda high leaves and now we start watching the Delta, the mid-South and the eastern Corn Belt go very dry,” Snodgrass says.

Those drought conditions showed up in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, authored by USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

“We still need moisture in the southern and eastern Corn Belt into the Northeast. [We’re] also keeping a close eye on the western drought, which has come on strong this summer,” Rippey says.

(Brad Rippy, USDA )

Flash Drought Develops
However, some areas of the eastern Corn Belt are seeing a flash drought, which just came on in the last three weeks, according to Snodgrass.

“In fact, there’s been a three-class degradation and drought in the mid-South and along the Mississippi River down there in the Delta,” Snodgrass says.

The bull’s-eye of the drought in the eastern Corn Belt is even more obvious when you look at a climate map that ranks the precipitation according to deviation from normal.

“It starts right here where I am in east central Illinois and then moves across a big section of Indiana and gets into Ohio — but don’t forget Kentucky and Tennessee,” Snodgrass says. “During that summer time frame, were there pockets of drought developing? Yes. Where I am here, when you subtract evaporation from the precipitation total, we’re 8" off of normal.”

(IEM )

Extreme Heat Also Had a Role
He says the flash drought was also a result of heat in June through most of August.

“Our biggest stressor is the fact that we saw, when compared to average, an additional 25 nights where the low temperature was greater than 70°F. We just never brought the temperatures down enough at night to really allow the crop to rest. Even though it’s cool now, it wasn’t that way in June, July and most of August,” Snodgrass says.

Is It Cutting Yield?
That likely impacted back-end kernel depth, or the fill on corn. When combined with increased disease pressure, it potentially trimmed yields.

Missy Bauer, agronomist with B&M Crop Consulting, says: “When we have poor conditions — whether heavy disease pressure, a lack of nitrogen in some areas or maybe dry weather — all of those influence the finish of that crop. It can be so variable based on that. If you just do math alone and you say, ‘Well, I got 90,000 kernels in a bushel versus 60,000 kernels in a bushel’, that’s 100 bushel difference per acre.”

Rains are even more critical in August to fill out the soybeans, so both crops may be going backward from the August WASDE.

Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says: “We had the Pro Farmer [Crop] Tour going through, and some others, coming up with a lot of disease issues out here in both corn and soybeans. So, its very realistic that we’ve seen the biggest numbers in corn and soybeans from a yield standpoint going forward.”

Snodgrass says though there are upcoming chances for rain in some of these drought areas, it may be too late for the corn and may not fill in all the holes in the soybean crop.

Will This Week's Heat Further Stress the Corn Crop?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 03:15:02 GMT

A ridge of high pressure and heat dome is building in the Corn Belt this week bringing some of the hottest weather of the growing season.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions says rain will accompany this system but the moisture won’t be enough to offset the heat.

“So, this heat that’s coming in it’s got humidity with it and that’s what’s going to be the challenge you’re going to get very high heat index value some places approaching maybe a hundred and 110 degrees or above. But it’s really that the northward extent of the very warm nights that I’m concerned about,” he says.

Record Nighttime Temperatures Stress Corn

And Snodgrass says it’s not the day time but the nighttime temperatures that could be the most stressful for corn at pollination.

“We’re looking at the middle and end of this week possibly setting some record overnight low temperatures in the upper Midwest. When you keep the humidity in the atmosphere, you prevent the temperature from cooling off at night. And what ends up happening is you keep those stressful night lows around. And so it’s just not ideal,” he explains.

Snodgrass says there’s also evidence the record hot overnight temperatures the last 45 days have already taken a toll on corn.

Heat waves starting in early June caused rapid growth syndrome in key states in the Corn Belt and now many areas are well past their historical averages for growing degree days.

“The greatest of the heat was really starting in eastern Iowa through Illinois, Wisconsin into Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where many of the climate reporting districts in that region I just described have had some of their warmest overnight low temperatures. When you look at the last 45 days on the whole. Some of their warmest overnight low temperatures since records began back in the late 1800s.”

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions )

Corn Pollination Already Impacted by Heat

Snodgrass thinks that’s contributing to the production issues that are starting to emerge, including pollination problems with overly tight tassel wrap in corn.

Plus, disease pressure is showing up earlier than normal in both corn and soybeans in states that saw early planting such as Iowa and Illinois.

All of these production problems have the potential to cut yield.

“And I think we’re starting to see that showing up as more scouting happens over the coming weeks and maybe a month and a half.” he adds.

He expects crop conditions to deteriorate this week and the weather outlook stays the same through August when soybeans hit their peak reproductive phase.

“I think persistence in the pattern is going to win the day over trying to see some sort of pattern shift when we get into August. I think the next time we see a significant pattern shift, it will be on our hurricane season gets going.”

20 Phrases Every Farmer Actually Mutters About Rain

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:35:40 GMT

If there’s one topic that unites farmers across all sectors of ag, it’s rain. It’s more than just weather on the farm, it determines your profits, your schedule and your mood all wrapped into one frustrating package. And it doesn’t matter if it’s planting season, mid-summer or the final push before harvest, our entire lives revolve around what’s happening in the sky.

If two or more farmers are talking, you can bet rain will come up in the conversation within the first five minutes. Here’s a look at some of the most common phrases you’ll hear when farmers start talking about rain:

“We could use some rain.”
This is the go-to phrase farmers have said since the beginning of time. It’s a simple, familiar line heard everywhere from church parking lots to town meetings, starting at planting and sticking around through the end of harvest.
“It would be nice if it stopped raining.”
Ah, the full-circle moment. Just two weeks ago we were begging for a slight shower. Now it’s been raining cats and dogs for four straight days.
“How much rain did you get?”
This is more than small talk; it’s actually a competition between farmers, and there is a winner and a loser.
“How much rain did so-and-so get?”
Because we all know that one farmer magically got all the rain, again.
“Did you see the forecast for the week?”
This is a question that leads farmers to check five weather apps that all have five different answers.
“That cloud is looking pretty dark.”
If this phrase is said on any farm, everyone will turn to look and offer their opinion on if it’s actually going to rain or not.
“It always seems to miss us.”
Every time the radar shows a line of storms, somehow it splits, shifts or drifts just enough to leave you high and dry.
“We needed that.”
This is often said with a kind of relief that comes after waiting days or weeks, when even a small rain feels like a lifeline.
“It was just enough to settle the dust.”
This is farmer speak for: it looked better than it was, but we’ll still take it.
“The radar made it look like we’d get rain, but we didn’t get a drop.”
All the signs pointed to a downpour, but somehow the sky held back.
“It split and went north again.”
Of course it did. It always does. It never rains where it’s supposed to.
“The neighbor got an inch, and we got nothing.”
This can go one of two ways: You’re ticked that you didn’t get the rain, or you’re thankful that you didn’t get more of it.
“It’s too wet to get anything done now.”
Welcome to farming: Nothing goes according to plan, and every drought seems to end with a downpour.
“Hopefully it holds off ‘til we get this hay in.”
A tempting statement that all but guarantees a pop-up thunderstorm. Mother Nature never checks your schedule.
“At least we get a break.”
This is said when the rain slows work down but gives everyone a moment to catch their breath.
“We’re overdue.”
This is usually muttered out of practicality and frustration, recognizing that the dry spell has gone on longer than expected and something has to give soon.
“It was just enough to green things up.”
It wasn’t a drought-buster, but it was good enough to make everything look better.
“How long do you think this dry stretch will last?”
Asked like someone might have insider info. Nobody does, but that won’t stop the theories, calendar comparisons or 2012 references.
“You could see the rain line from here.”
Another version of “we missed it,” but with more drama and eyewitness testimony.
“I could be a meteorologist.”
Said when the forecast flips unexpectedly, reminding everyone that sometimes even the experts are just guessing.

Whether it’s not enough, way too much or the perfect amount, rain brings out every emotion in a farmer’s toolkit — hope, stress, gratitude, frustration, envy and relief. And no matter what the forecast says, one thing is always true: If you’re a farmer, you’ll never stop talking about rain.