Weather

60% of U.S. Now Facing Moderate to Exceptional Drought

Mon, 20 Apr 2026 16:54:03 GMT

The latest drought monitor shows three-quarters of the U.S. is now dealing with some level of drought or dryness. Of that, 60% falls in the D1 moderate drought to D4 exceptional drought categories, the highest level since November 2022. To put it in perspective, drought coverage has only exceeded 60% about 30 times in recent history, 25 of those during the widespread drought of 2012 and 2013.

(NOAA/NWS)

The drought and dryness picture is even clearer in the latest root zone moisture map from NASA , which shows the amount of moisture in the top 3' of soil versus a historical average.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the western Plains is parched and in need of a rain.

The soil in parts of the eastern Corn Belt, the Southeast and into the Western plains is parched and in need of a rain.

(NASA)

Unfortunately, those areas might not see any measurable rain for a couple of weeks, causing the drought area to further expand and deepen.

Drought Monitor Shows Expanding Footprint

“The Drought Monitor has been roughly 80% now for over a month,” says Eric Snodgrass , senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions. “Remember, that’s using all drought categories, but 80% abnormally dry to exceptionally dry is a big area that’s coming out of a winter and spring with drought concerns going into summer.”

In the Southeast, he says Arkansas is showing a 15" deficit since last October. Recent forecasts for rain have been a disappointment or missed the driest areas altogether, creating a historic drought profile.

“The Southeast is enduring one of the driest springs it has had historically going back to the late 1800s. The drought there is a rough picture,” Snodgrass says. “The high plains are absolutely bone dry. Big dust storms. Nebraska’s really taking a beating. They’re pre-irrigating the crop.”

Winter Wheat Acres Could Be Abandoned

In winter wheat country, 68% of the acres are experiencing drought. Nationally, only 34% of the winter wheat is rated good to excellent. In Texas, 54% of the hard red winter wheat crop is rated poor to very poor, indicating some areas could see acres abandoned.

“I think there’s going to be a lot of lost acres. They’re waiting on rain that now if it comes, it’s almost too late,” Snodgrass says. “I was talking to a grower on the tip of the Red River, and he said he’s already had the insurance adjuster out and was looking at 1 bu. to 19 bu. yields. The crop is gone.”

(USDA)

Any Relief in the Forecast?

Snodgrass says the quick transition over to a super El Nino could provide some drought relief to those areas ... eventually.

“I think we’re going to see rains relieving the drought pressure — not alleviating, but helping in the Plains and in the Southeast in May,” he adds.

Unfortunately, Snodgrass says that relief will not last all summer.

Weather Extremes Take Their Toll on the Winter Wheat Crop

Fri, 20 Mar 2026 13:02:29 GMT

While winter wheat is a crop that seems to have nine lives, the dramatic weather extremes are taking a toll on the crop.

Winter wheat may have already been damaged in January and February due to extreme cold and the lack of snow cover in many areas.

Throw on top of that freezing temperatures at the start of the week and now heat and continued dry conditions, which are stressing the crop.

Freeze Damage Early This Week
Freeze damage was noted in Texas up through Kansas with below freezing temperatures to start the week according to Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading and a farmer near Dodge City, Kansas, then followed by a huge warm up.

“Out here in Dodge City, Kansas, you know, over the weekend, I woke up Monday morning, I think it was 10 degrees out here. So not what you want to see the middle of March when that growing point starting to come above the surface out here. A lot of vegetation protecting that growing point, I think. But if you drive around these fields out here and you can see some of the damage to the vegetation from that freeze event, then you turn around and we’ve got 90 degree days here coming into the week. So weather is pretty dynamic and wild.”

Already Freeze Damage in January and February
And there was already possible freeze damage in January and February due to the lack of snow cover accordign to Drew Lerner, ag meteorologist with World Weather Inc.:

“And there is some concern that there’s damage done out there. And having a warm and dry spring season is the absolute worst thing to do for a possibly damaged wheat crop. You need it to rain. It’s got to rain a little bit more frequently than usual, and the temperatures need to be kept in a mild regime. Instead, we’re going to be seeing quite the opposite. It’s going to be quite warm at times.”

Drought Monitor Tells the Story
This week’s U.S. Drought Monitor is showing 55% of U.S. winter wheat areas in some level of drought which is further stressing the crop according to Huck.

‘Right now the big problem out here in the west regarding weather is drought and will the rains come,” he says.

(USDA )

On Monay the state ratings showed Oklahoma with only 18% of the crop rated good to excellent, down 6% from the previous week and the lowest level since 2018.

In Texas only 15% of the crop is in good to excellent condition, down 1%.

Lerner says the crop conditions are deteriorating further with the extreme weather. “The temperatures have been so warm that we have evaporated huge amounts of moisture from the soil, leaving that crop limping along.”

Forecast Continues the Pattern
And unfortunately the forecast looks to stay warm and dry for the next 8 to 14 days.

U.S. HRW wheat dryness is expected to intensify through at least next weekend as upper-level high pressure blocks energy and low humidities persist.

That will be accompanied by heat into the weekend and then next Tuesday through Thursday.

A large system likely moves across the central U.S. at some point March 31 - April 5, but it is unclear if it will move slowly with good rains for HRW wheat.

Smart Strategies for Planting in Wet or Dry Conditions

Tue, 10 Mar 2026 20:47:18 GMT

There are few mistakes that you can’t overcome, given enough time. But problems at planting time set the stage for an entire season’s worth of trouble.

Many, if not most, planting problems result from failing to adjust practices and equipment to fit soil and weather conditions, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. Since you can’t know what the weather will do, you have to plan for various scenarios.

What If It’s Dry?

Ferrie has one rule: Don’t plant corn into dry soil, hoping to “rain it up.”

“Putting corn in dry soil, and not having it germinate in timely fashion, can be a disaster for your stand,” he says. “If you do spring tillage too far ahead of planting, that lets the soil dry out. Don’t let your soil finisher get too far ahead of the planter in a hot, dry spring.”

In a dry situation with conventional tillage, use row cleaners to push away clods in front of the planting units. “If you crush clods with your depth wheels, you’ll put dry soil around the seed,” Ferrie says. “Use your row cleaners as a clod roller.”

In either no-till or conventional tillage, use row cleaners to move residue out of the way. “Normally, a little residue is no big deal,” Ferrie says. “But if it’s dry, residue tucked into the seedbed wicks moisture out of the furrow, away from the seed.”

Running out of planting moisture in no-till is rare, but it can happen in sandy soil or if you fail to kill a cover crop on time, Ferrie notes. “It can happen when strip-tilling in coarse soils, if you are not timely with your planter,” he says. “In strip-till, you may have to go off the strip and no-till the seed beside the strip.

In tough conditions, with no rain in the forecast and you know it will be even drier in 10 more days, use your row cleaners to move away the dry soil. Hopefully, this will get you closer to some moisture where you can place the seed, Ferrie advises.

This carries risk, though. “If you applied a pre-emergence herbicide, there will be no herbicide left in the row,” Ferrie says. “Have a plan in place to control weeds in the row.”

If you “plow down to moisture” in strip-till or conventional tillage, you will actually be planting in a valley. “If the weatherman turns out to be wrong and you get a toad strangling rain before the corn comes up, the corn will get buried and you’ll have to replant,” Ferrie says. “But at least you’ll have moisture to replant in.”

What If It’s Wet?

Unless you own a crystal ball, you need a plan for wet weather, too. “Don’t mud a crop into cold, wet soil unless you’re running up against the crop insurance date because of prolonged cool, damp weather,” Ferrie says.

Most often, you’ll have soil that, while fit to plant, is on the wet side. “In marginally wet conditions, the biggest problems I see are carrying too much down pressure on row units and being too aggressive with row cleaners,” Ferrie says. “That makes it difficult to close the slot. If you back off down pressure and let up on the row cleaners, you’ll often find that a field that seemed too wet to plant will plant nicely.”

Worries about maintaining seed depth are what make farmers too aggressive with down pressure. “That gets people in trouble in marginally wet conditions,” Ferrie says. “With today’s monitoring equipment, you can back off down pressure and know whether you’re maintaining depth control.”

A row unit functions sort of like a Jet Ski, Ferrie says. The faster you pull the planter, the more it wants to come out of the ground, so it takes more down pressure to maintain proper depth.

“In these marginal conditions, in order to stay on top of dry soil and plant through it without moving it, you may have to slow down the planter to maintain depth control,” Ferrie adds. “Slowing down from 5 mph to 4 mph is still faster than waiting for the field to dry out, so you can plant with more down pressure and a higher speed.”

In marginal conditions, stop the planter and adjust row cleaners, closing wheels and down pressure from field to field, Ferrie says.
One other time you might need to plant in wet soil is when you have wet spots in an otherwise dry field.

“It’s a time-sensitive issue,” Ferrie says. “If you’re in danger of missing the optimum planting period, and 80% of the field is ready but 20% is still wet, go ahead and plant. You’ll have yield loss in the areas that aren’t ready, but not as much as if you miss the optimum planting window on the 80%.”

If spots in a field are wet every year, consider tiling them. “If you improve timeliness over the entire field, you pick up yield everywhere, not just in the wet spots,” Ferrie says.

If you can’t improve drainage in those fields, set your planter for wet conditions. “Use spoked closing wheels to close the furrow,” Ferrie says. “Put scrapers on your planter’s depth wheels. Use a variable down-pressure system, so you can take the pressure off when planting through wet areas.

“Be conscious of planter weight in those fields. If you have a center-fill planter with starter fertilizer tanks, fill the hopper and tanks only partway. Keep the planter as light as possible.”

Give Extra Attention To Fertilizer Management

“In a dry year, be careful about applying starter in the furrow, even if you’re using a low-salt product,” Ferrie says. “If you’re worried about having enough moisture to germinate the corn, don’t put any salt in the furrow.”

If you apply anhydrous ammonia in the spring, allow at least two weeks between application and planting, and hope for a 2" rain. “In a dry spring, I’ve seen ammonia applied in February burn corn planted in April,” Ferrie says. “If you have auto-steer, you can use it to apply the ammonia and then plant between the ammonia strips.”

Here are a couple of other things to keep in mind if spring turns out dry: “Soil-applied herbicides need moisture to disperse in the soil and activate the active ingredients,” Ferrie says. “Plan to scout more and apply rescue or cleanup treatments, if needed.”

In northern areas where primary tillage is done in the spring, do secondary tillage within hours after chiseling. “There will be no freezing and thawing to break up chunks and prevent them from turning into clods,” Ferrie says. “If they turn into clods, you’ll have to deal with them all season long.”

Whatever the weather brings, patience at planting is a virtue. “Don’t feel that you have to plant just because your neighbor is,” Ferrie says. “With today’s genetics, we have a wider planting window. Diversity in planting dates, as long as you don’t miss the optimum range, reduces pollination risk.”

Is Planting Always a Struggle?

If weather is cool and wet, you might have to fight to get corn planted during the optimum window—that’s normal. But if you struggle to finish on time every season, or if you find yourself starting earlier to finish on time, you might need to re-evaluate your equipment and manpower, says Farm Journal Field Agronomist Ken Ferrie. “Early planting is fine if conditions are right, but if you plant in wet soil in order to finish on time, you risk problems with stand establishment,” he says.

Consider the following pinch points to determine if your planting pipeline needs an update:

Timing. How much time do you have to get planting done? Your landgrant university or seed company can tell you the optimum planting window for your locality because it varies by area.

Ferrie suggests his Midwestern clients be able to plant their corn crop in five days, when conditions are right. “Of course, those five days may not come in one stretch. It may take a month to get five days of good planting conditions, depending on the weather,” he says.

Machine power. Is your planter sized for your acreage? “As farmers pick up acres, they may add a grain cart or a second combine but forget to upsize their planter,” Ferrie says. “Rather than a bigger planter, you may want a second one, so you can plant in two areas at once.”

Manpower. Consider hiring a custom operator to spray while your skilled employee plants. “You can hire people to do a lot of jobs,” Ferrie says. “But it’s difficult to hire someone to plant your crop on a timely basis.”

A 2014 Repeat? Why This Meteorologist Sees 'Bumper Crop Potential' for 2026

Wed, 11 Feb 2026 17:37:03 GMT

The weather outlook for 2026 is one of “cautious optimism.” While there is less immediate concern compared to the start of 2025, Matt Reardon, senior atmospheric scientist for Nutrien Ag Solutions, says the “spring predictability horizon” remains a factor where conditions could still shift.

El Niño and La Niña are the two opposing phases of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. This cycle describes the fluctuations in temperature between the ocean and atmosphere in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean.

“That gives us some sense of where things might tilt weather-wise, particularly in winter,” Reardon says. “In summer, there are some correlations, too.”

For many U.S. farmers, El Niño is often welcomed because it can bring increased precipitation to major growing regions, though it can also cause flooding in some areas. Meanwhile, La Niña is frequently associated with increased drought risk in the Southern Plains and Mid-South, which can lead to yield-robbing conditions if the pattern persists into the summer.

“We tend to root for El Niño, particularly in North America, as it tends to be beneficial for our growing regions with a little more precipitation,” Reardon says. “But those correlations are very far from a home run. We’re talking just a slight lean in that direction.”

He says the forecast predicts fading out of La Niña pretty quickly in spring and heading toward an El Niño, potentially by summer.

What Can Farmers Expect This Spring?

“What I’m looking at as we head toward both spring planting then summertime heat and real drought risk in June and July is that one sea surface temperature is closer to home in the Northeast Pacific,” he says. “We found, especially this decade, that as those sea surface temperatures go, our season tends to go.”

Last year, with all the drought concerns going into 2025 growing season, water temperatures in the Northeast Pacific stayed warm – actually record warm.

“We had a great growing season for the most part with plenty of moisture, if not too much, in some areas,” Reardon says. “In 2023, those water temperatures stayed a little bit cooler, and we had more drought risk.”

Reardon admits he’s learned that “cautious optimism about where things are headed” is often helpful when determining weather expectations.

As he looks toward 2026, he sees a similar start to 2014, which was a huge bumper crop year.

“But things can change,” Reardon adds. “There’s that spring predictability horizon we’ve got to leap over here.”

Is Drought Likely in 2026?

One of his concerns is that the latest USDA Drought Monitor shows some overwinter drought, which he says isn’t uncommon.

“We’ve seen a lot of that this decade. Spring rains can quickly make up for a lot of that,” Reardon says.

On Feb. 9, the Southern Plains saw a lot of grass fires. He says some of those were prescribed burns, but winds will be picking up again over the next 10 days.

“We are keeping an eye on the Southern Plains,” Reardon says. “They are getting some rain over the next seven days, but that’s an area that’s so prone to drought, especially in spring. If we see it build there and then try to leach over to Little Rock or Nashville, that can start to become a concern.”

In big yield-robbing drought years, it often flares in the Mid-South or even the Southeast over into the southern plains, first in April or May, and then tends to spread north.

“That’s a common behavior of some of these big concerning years of the past like 2006 or 2012, so we are keeping an eye on that right now,” he says. “But the good news is, in the next 10 days, we are going to get some moisture into the ground.”

Record Breaking Winter Storm Fern Slams Farmers and Ranchers in 28 States

Tue, 27 Jan 2026 02:51:12 GMT

Winter Storm Fern will go down in the record books with a large swath of the U.S. and farm country blanketed with a foot or more of snow, ice and record-breaking cold.

Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag senior science fellow, says: “We had 28 states under at least an ice storm warning or a winter storm warning. And the thing started in New Mexico and finished in Maine and along the way dumped a tremendous amount of snow. A massive ice storm that stretched from what Dallas to Memphis to Nashville.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Hundreds of Thousands Without Power

That heavy ice caused hundreds of thousands of power outages that will last for days or even weeks in some areas. Early estimates on Monday morning by PowerOutage.com put total power outages at over 782,000 customers, mainly across the Southeast U.S. The hardest hit states included Tennessee at just under 250,000 and Mississippi and Maine at nearly 150,000. By Monday evening total power outages were still at more than 550,000.

(Eric Snodgrass )

Record Low Temperatures

Farmers and ranchers worked over the weekend to protect livestock from this historic winter blast. Hundreds of locations also surpassed unofficial daily records for low temperatures. That combined with dangerous wind chills, stressed livestock and hurt performance and health.

Snodgrass says, “I mean, 30 to 40 degrees colder than normal. I mean, I saw wind chills in Wisconsin, a huge dairy state. wind chills in Wisconsin down to minus 55 over the weekend, and that’s a pretty brutal setup for humans and livestock alike.”

Livestock Producers Work Overtime to Protect Herds

Northwest Louisiana cattle producer Mitch Marsalis worked over the weekend to keep his beef cattle warm with extra grain and feed. “We’re trying to get these calves back to pasture and get everything set up to get them fed, get them some warmth and some food in their bodies to keep them warm during this weather.”

However, the Claiborne Parish rancher told Josh Meeks at This Week in Louisiana Agriculture the 25-degree temperatures are harder on ranchers than livestock. “They’re cold right now, but they’re not as cold as we are. They’re acclimated to this weather a little bit better than we are. You know, they’re not sitting in the house, 70 degrees and then walk outside and get that shock about them and all.”

10 Points to Consider When Managing Cattle Through Cold Stress

Tips to Prevent Hypothermia in Calves

Grain Movement and Processing Also Slowed

Fern has also slowed grain movement from trucks to barges. Plus, ethanol and soybean processing plants have slowed production to conserve margins with surging natural gas prices.

Winter Wheat Winter Kill Concerns

Plus, winter kill is possible in winter wheat in areas like Kansas, says Snodgrass, where the deep freeze was preceded by above average temperatures. “I think the only saving grace is there’s now a little skiff of snow and in eastern Kansas even more than that sitting on top of the ground and on top of the wheat as the Arctic air spills all the way down to the Rio Grande. So I think it’s going to be one of those things where like well in April we will see if there was any damage or any problems.”

How Long Will Polar Vortex Last?

Snodgrass says the bad news is this polar vortex could stick around for a while. “We’ve displaced the polar vortex. It’s now sitting over like the Great Lakes to Hudson Bay. We’ve pinched off warm air over the Arctic, which means we’re displacing it right down the heart of North America. And we’re going to continue to deal with this to finish this month and I think even start February.”

(Eric Snodgrass )

Analog Year in 2014

And so Snodgrass thinks this polar vortex could be similar to analog year of 2014 where the polar vortex was prolonged through February.

La Niña Is Fading: What It Means for South American Crop Potential

Fri, 12 Dec 2025 15:35:19 GMT

La Niña might have been the only hope for a production problem in South America to trim their record soybean crop outlook. However, Eric Snodgrass, meteorologist and senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag, told farmers at the South Dakota Soybean Ag Outlook meeting in Sioux Falls, La Niña is starting to weaken — and along with it, the possibility of production problems in South America.

“I’m worried about La Niña already running its course. What I mean by that is normally La Niña’s build through December, peaks around the holidays and then wanes in February. This one’s already starting to back off,” Snodgrass explains.

The U.S. Climate Prediction Center (CPC) also issued their outlook for La Niña this week, which includes the weather pattern persisting for the next month or two before fading out in early 2026. That does not mean much for U.S. weather, but it could limit precipitation during South America’s growing season. However, it would fade in South America after the most critical part of the soybean reproductive phase, so if there is an impact in Brazil it would likely be to the second crop corn.

In a La Niña pattern , stronger-than-usual trade winds push warm water toward Asia. That results in an up-welling of cold, nutrient-rich water to the surface off the west coast of the Americas, with implications for global weather patterns. The current La Niña pattern has been relatively weak, analysts note.

As such, Snodgrass says he’s cautious about the South American forecast during their critical soybean production phase in January and February.

“Normally if you’re saying, what’s La Niña do, it means a wet Brazil and dry Argentina. El Nino flips it around. I don’t know where we’re going to be because we’re transitioning toward neutral conditions quickly, which means we’re going to have to watch other sub-seasonal factors. If the markets are going to follow weather, they’re going to be on a two -week schedule,” according to Snodgrass.

It’s Raining in Brazil

In the past two weeks, Brazil has been getting needed rains in main production areas, so dryness is no longer a concern. While its early, Snodgrass doesn’t see many production problems and neither do market analysts.

“I look at NDVI values,” he says. “They don’t look off. They’re closer to average.”

Brian Grete, grain and livestock analyst with Commstock Investments, says Brazil has seen thunderstorms over a wide area in the past 10 to 20 days.

“Some of the drier areas have received rains. The rains have come through central Brazil, northeastern Brazil and east-central Brazil, but the Southern areas have turned dry,” he adds.

There’s more rain in Brazil’s forecast in the next 14 days as several cool fronts pass, with 100% to 200% of normal rainfall predicted for all but Rio Grade do Sul in the South, which accounts for nearly 15% of Brazil’s soybean production. Grete says.

“We’ll have to watch that Southern area of Brazil to see if it continues to remain dry, which the forecast suggests through the end of this month,” he adds.

Meanwhile, Argentina is expected to get 50% of normal rainfall the next 14 days, but there are no real concerns there either.

(NASA)

Conab Adjusts Brazil Crop Slightly

On Thursday, CONAB left Brazil corn production nearly unchanged at 138.879 MMT, which is below expectations of 140.96 MMT. The agency cut soybean production from last month by about 550,000 metric tons to 177.12 MMT, mainly due to slightly lower acreage. That was below the expected 179.2 MMT. However, this still a record crop of more than 6.5 billion bushels. CONAB cited some replanting last month due to irregular rainfall, but rains have normalized in most areas of Brazil, and with La Niña starting to fade they may be on pace to hit that record soybean estimate.

Rosario Grain Exchange Leaves Argentina Crop Unchanged

The Rosario Grain Exchange left their corn production estimate at 61 MMT with 57% of the crop planted. The exchange also left soybean production unchanged at 47 MMT and reported 64% of the country had the crop seeded.

Meteorologists forecast the current weak La Niña could result in hotter and dryer-than-normal conditions across Argentina during December and January, notes crop consultant Dr. Michael Cordonnier. That hasn’t yet materialized, he adds, and crops are doing quite well with 61% of soybeans rated good or excellent.

Cordonnier left his Argentine soybean estimate unchanged this week at 49.0 MMT with a neutral bias. If the anticipated La Niña impact takes hold, the estimate is probably too high, he says. If the impact doesn’t materialize, the estimate is probably too low.

The Key to Reversing Low River Levels and Shoring Up Critical Infrastructure

Fri, 03 Oct 2025 18:14:20 GMT

Mississippi River levels are low this fall season—for the third year in a row.

“The timing couldn’t be worse,” says Jon Davis, chief meteorologist at Everstream Analytics. “October is a critical month for barge transportation in the Mississippi River Basin. This is especially the case in the agricultural sector as crops are harvested in the Midwest and transported mainly by barge to New Orleans.”

He says this year’s river levels mimic 2024 conditions. Barge restrictions were put in place in September, and currently, the low-water restrictions for southbound vessels on the Lower Mississippi River from the U.S. Coast Guard include:

• Cairo, Ill., to Lake Providence, La., MM 869-483: Drafts no greater than 10'6" and barges no more than six wide.

• Lake Providence, La., to the Gulf of Mexico, MM 483-303: Drafts no greater than 11' and barges no more than six wide.

“August was a very dry month in the Central and Eastern Corn Belt and in the Delta, and in mid- to late August, we began to see that response in the river system overall. That was the time frame we began to watch things very closely,” Davis says. “Based on September being very dry, it looked like the overall decline in river levels was going to continue and we’re going to get into a bit more of a restrictive environment, which would certainly impact logistics on the river system.”

The weather patterns of the past seven weeks accelerated river level issues.

“The combination of recent warmth and long-term dryness has led to this decline in river levels, and if we look at the river levels now compared with the last 10 years, we’re at some of the lowest levels we’ve seen,” Davis adds.

Ohio River at Cairo, Ill. Oct 1, 2025

(USGS)

Mississippi River at Dubuque, Iowa on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Davis says there’s not much recharge for the river in the forecast — and the greatest source for getting levels back up is unfortunately a tropical system, such as a hurricane.

Mississippi River at Memphis, TN on Oct. 1

(USGS)

Mississippi River at New Orleans on Oct. 1

(USGS)

“That’s what helped last year—the storms that developed in October,” he says.

Looking at the forecast, the next seven to 10 days doesn’t show much promise for precipitation along the Mississippi River Valley or the Ohio River Valley, which notably feeds the lower Mississippi. However, the end of October could turn wetter, which might slow the finish of harvest but could recharge the vital artery in our inland waterways.

How Much Could the Flash Drought Cut Corn and Soybean Yields Due to a Poor Finish?

Tue, 02 Sep 2025 17:47:17 GMT

August was one of the driest in history for some areas of the U.S. — like Ohio and Indiana. The onset of flash drought may have trimmed yield potential for both corn and soybeans, and it could also result in an earlier start to harvest.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow with Nutrien Ag Solutions, says it was an abrupt change from too much rain early in the season.

“All of a sudden, the Bermuda high leaves and now we start watching the Delta, the mid-South and the eastern Corn Belt go very dry,” Snodgrass says.

Those drought conditions showed up in the most recent U.S. Drought Monitor, authored by USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey.

Is the U.S. Corn and Soybean Crop Getting Smaller?

“We still need moisture in the southern and eastern Corn Belt into the Northeast. [We’re] also keeping a close eye on the western drought, which has come on strong this summer,” Rippey says.

(Brad Rippy, USDA )

Flash Drought Develops
However, some areas of the eastern Corn Belt are seeing a flash drought, which just came on in the last three weeks, according to Snodgrass.

“In fact, there’s been a three-class degradation and drought in the mid-South and along the Mississippi River down there in the Delta,” Snodgrass says.

The bull’s-eye of the drought in the eastern Corn Belt is even more obvious when you look at a climate map that ranks the precipitation according to deviation from normal.

“It starts right here where I am in east central Illinois and then moves across a big section of Indiana and gets into Ohio — but don’t forget Kentucky and Tennessee,” Snodgrass says. “During that summer time frame, were there pockets of drought developing? Yes. Where I am here, when you subtract evaporation from the precipitation total, we’re 8" off of normal.”

(IEM )

Extreme Heat Also Had a Role
He says the flash drought was also a result of heat in June through most of August.

“Our biggest stressor is the fact that we saw, when compared to average, an additional 25 nights where the low temperature was greater than 70°F. We just never brought the temperatures down enough at night to really allow the crop to rest. Even though it’s cool now, it wasn’t that way in June, July and most of August,” Snodgrass says.

Is It Cutting Yield?
That likely impacted back-end kernel depth, or the fill on corn. When combined with increased disease pressure, it potentially trimmed yields.

Missy Bauer, agronomist with B&M Crop Consulting, says: “When we have poor conditions — whether heavy disease pressure, a lack of nitrogen in some areas or maybe dry weather — all of those influence the finish of that crop. It can be so variable based on that. If you just do math alone and you say, ‘Well, I got 90,000 kernels in a bushel versus 60,000 kernels in a bushel’, that’s 100 bushel difference per acre.”

Rains are even more critical in August to fill out the soybeans, so both crops may be going backward from the August WASDE.

Don Roose, U.S. Commodities, says: “We had the Pro Farmer [Crop] Tour going through, and some others, coming up with a lot of disease issues out here in both corn and soybeans. So, its very realistic that we’ve seen the biggest numbers in corn and soybeans from a yield standpoint going forward.”

Snodgrass says though there are upcoming chances for rain in some of these drought areas, it may be too late for the corn and may not fill in all the holes in the soybean crop.

Will This Week's Heat Further Stress the Corn Crop?

Wed, 23 Jul 2025 03:15:02 GMT

A ridge of high pressure and heat dome is building in the Corn Belt this week bringing some of the hottest weather of the growing season.

Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow, Nutrien Ag Solutions says rain will accompany this system but the moisture won’t be enough to offset the heat.

“So, this heat that’s coming in it’s got humidity with it and that’s what’s going to be the challenge you’re going to get very high heat index value some places approaching maybe a hundred and 110 degrees or above. But it’s really that the northward extent of the very warm nights that I’m concerned about,” he says.

Record Nighttime Temperatures Stress Corn

And Snodgrass says it’s not the day time but the nighttime temperatures that could be the most stressful for corn at pollination.

“We’re looking at the middle and end of this week possibly setting some record overnight low temperatures in the upper Midwest. When you keep the humidity in the atmosphere, you prevent the temperature from cooling off at night. And what ends up happening is you keep those stressful night lows around. And so it’s just not ideal,” he explains.

Snodgrass says there’s also evidence the record hot overnight temperatures the last 45 days have already taken a toll on corn.

Heat waves starting in early June caused rapid growth syndrome in key states in the Corn Belt and now many areas are well past their historical averages for growing degree days.

“The greatest of the heat was really starting in eastern Iowa through Illinois, Wisconsin into Indiana, Kentucky, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, where many of the climate reporting districts in that region I just described have had some of their warmest overnight low temperatures. When you look at the last 45 days on the whole. Some of their warmest overnight low temperatures since records began back in the late 1800s.”

(Eric Snodgrass, Nutrien Ag Solutions )

Corn Pollination Already Impacted by Heat

Snodgrass thinks that’s contributing to the production issues that are starting to emerge, including pollination problems with overly tight tassel wrap in corn.

Plus, disease pressure is showing up earlier than normal in both corn and soybeans in states that saw early planting such as Iowa and Illinois.

All of these production problems have the potential to cut yield.

“And I think we’re starting to see that showing up as more scouting happens over the coming weeks and maybe a month and a half.” he adds.

He expects crop conditions to deteriorate this week and the weather outlook stays the same through August when soybeans hit their peak reproductive phase.

“I think persistence in the pattern is going to win the day over trying to see some sort of pattern shift when we get into August. I think the next time we see a significant pattern shift, it will be on our hurricane season gets going.”

20 Phrases Every Farmer Actually Mutters About Rain

Mon, 14 Jul 2025 20:35:40 GMT

If there’s one topic that unites farmers across all sectors of ag, it’s rain. It’s more than just weather on the farm, it determines your profits, your schedule and your mood all wrapped into one frustrating package. And it doesn’t matter if it’s planting season, mid-summer or the final push before harvest, our entire lives revolve around what’s happening in the sky.

If two or more farmers are talking, you can bet rain will come up in the conversation within the first five minutes. Here’s a look at some of the most common phrases you’ll hear when farmers start talking about rain:

“We could use some rain.”
This is the go-to phrase farmers have said since the beginning of time. It’s a simple, familiar line heard everywhere from church parking lots to town meetings, starting at planting and sticking around through the end of harvest.
“It would be nice if it stopped raining.”
Ah, the full-circle moment. Just two weeks ago we were begging for a slight shower. Now it’s been raining cats and dogs for four straight days.
“How much rain did you get?”
This is more than small talk; it’s actually a competition between farmers, and there is a winner and a loser.
“How much rain did so-and-so get?”
Because we all know that one farmer magically got all the rain, again.
“Did you see the forecast for the week?”
This is a question that leads farmers to check five weather apps that all have five different answers.
“That cloud is looking pretty dark.”
If this phrase is said on any farm, everyone will turn to look and offer their opinion on if it’s actually going to rain or not.
“It always seems to miss us.”
Every time the radar shows a line of storms, somehow it splits, shifts or drifts just enough to leave you high and dry.
“We needed that.”
This is often said with a kind of relief that comes after waiting days or weeks, when even a small rain feels like a lifeline.
“It was just enough to settle the dust.”
This is farmer speak for: it looked better than it was, but we’ll still take it.
“The radar made it look like we’d get rain, but we didn’t get a drop.”
All the signs pointed to a downpour, but somehow the sky held back.
“It split and went north again.”
Of course it did. It always does. It never rains where it’s supposed to.
“The neighbor got an inch, and we got nothing.”
This can go one of two ways: You’re ticked that you didn’t get the rain, or you’re thankful that you didn’t get more of it.
“It’s too wet to get anything done now.”
Welcome to farming: Nothing goes according to plan, and every drought seems to end with a downpour.
“Hopefully it holds off ‘til we get this hay in.”
A tempting statement that all but guarantees a pop-up thunderstorm. Mother Nature never checks your schedule.
“At least we get a break.”
This is said when the rain slows work down but gives everyone a moment to catch their breath.
“We’re overdue.”
This is usually muttered out of practicality and frustration, recognizing that the dry spell has gone on longer than expected and something has to give soon.
“It was just enough to green things up.”
It wasn’t a drought-buster, but it was good enough to make everything look better.
“How long do you think this dry stretch will last?”
Asked like someone might have insider info. Nobody does, but that won’t stop the theories, calendar comparisons or 2012 references.
“You could see the rain line from here.”
Another version of “we missed it,” but with more drama and eyewitness testimony.
“I could be a meteorologist.”
Said when the forecast flips unexpectedly, reminding everyone that sometimes even the experts are just guessing.

Whether it’s not enough, way too much or the perfect amount, rain brings out every emotion in a farmer’s toolkit — hope, stress, gratitude, frustration, envy and relief. And no matter what the forecast says, one thing is always true: If you’re a farmer, you’ll never stop talking about rain.

Ag Commissioner Calls Deadly Flooding in Central Texas "Devastating"

Tue, 08 Jul 2025 17:55:28 GMT

Its being called one of the deadliest U.S. floods in decades.

Devastation in central Texas over the holiday weekend as heavy rain and flooding on the Guadalupe River created a 26 to 30 foot wall of water.

Texas Agriculture Commissioner Sid Miller says while the priority in Texas is on search and rescue for the over 40 people still missing, flash flooding hit 21 counties, accounting for about 10% of the state.

He says they won’t have an accurate damage total for at least a month, but the loss to agriculture will be significant.

“If you can picture this in your mind, in less than 24 hours there was the same amount of water that goes through Niagara Falls in a month and a half. Now that’s that’s a lot of water by anybody’s standard. It came early in the morning, 3 a .m. pretty much unannounced,” he describes.

Miller says they haven’t assessed the agricultural damage yet but this is a large production area for cattle, sheep, goats and hay, but also vineyards and wineries.

“But I can tell you firsthand that we have over hundreds and hundreds of miles of fencing destroyed, barns, structures wiped out, homes wiped out, farm equipment, tractors underwater, implements washed down the river, crops underwater, crops washed out. We’re finding dead livestock, cows, and top of trees in the river bottom. So it’s the impact on agriculture is going to be pretty large,” he says.

Miller says they’re helping farmers and ranchers with supplies and opening up the STAR or State of Texas Agriculture Relief fund, plus the agriculture mental health hotline to all Texans.

He says, “I have opened up our hay and feed hotline. If anybody needs feed or hay, call that. You can find it on our website TexasAgriculture .gov. Also, if you want to donate or even donate transportation, we could use that. Number two is our emergency response hotline or agri -stress helpline. That’s probably the most important one.”

Texas AgriLife Extension, including Disaster Assessment and Recovery agents and County Extension Agents, also mobilized over the weekend to support Kerr County.

The devastation comes as Texas farmers and ranchers are still recovering from one of the largest wildfires in U.S. history just a little more than a year ago.

Parched: More Than 25% of the U.S. Is Experiencing Drought Conditions

Wed, 02 Jul 2025 20:53:26 GMT

Ron Suppes has been praying about rain for the past 10 years, asking God to send more precipitation for his wheat fields. Those prayers got answered this season, says the western Kansas farmer, based near Dighton.

“I’m not going to not pray for rain, but we’ve had enough that it’s kept us out of the field when we should be finished with wheat harvest about now,” he said on Tuesday.

Despite wheat harvest delays, Suppes says he’s happy about how area corn, soybeans, grain sorghum and pastures are looking now, especially for early July.

“They all look good here, but not as good as Iowa,” he notes. “I was through Iowa two weeks ago, and they’re way ahead of us. Of course, it’s always green there,” he laughs.

Iowa crops are off to a strong start this growing season, according to this week’s USDA Crop Progress Report. USDA rated 85% of the corn crop and 77% of the state’s soybean crop as good to excellent.

Weather conditions in much of the state have been favorable to crop growth and development.

In Washington County, Iowa, Mitchell Hora gave a two-word description of his corn crop. “It’s beautiful,” he told AgriTalk host Chip Flory.

Hora and Suppes shared their personal crop report Tuesday on AgriTalk. Listen here:

The Factor Driving Crop Conditions Across The U.S.

Nationally, USDA-NASS estimated that 73% of the corn crop and 66% of soybeans were in good-to-excellent condition in its weekly progress report released on Monday.

USDA cites favorable weather conditions for the positive ratings. The drought some meteorologists predicted last winter for parts of the central Midwest has not yet materialized.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner of World Weather, Inc.

The Crop Moisture Index provides a quick view of areas with a short-term need for moisture versus where there’s available moisture in the soil profile.

(NOAA)

The USDA Agricultural Weather Highlights issued July 2 acknowledges the favorable growing conditions.

“In the Corn Belt a lull in an overall wet pattern favors corn and soybean development, although a few showers are occurring west of the Mississippi River. The … mostly abundant moisture reserve is allowing earlier-planted corn and soybeans to enter reproduction without significant stress.”

What The Current Drought Monitor Shows

The U.S. Drought Monitor reported on June 24, 2025, that 25.83% of the U.S. and Puerto Rico were experiencing some degree of drought.

#DroughtMonitor 6/24: The Northwest and NV saw large degradations. Areas of the Rockies too.

The Plains to the East mostly improved or remained drought-free. But small areas did worsen in the Plains, Midwest, FL.#Drought2025 Footprint: 25.8% of UShttps://t.co/mljsjQDvLB @NOAA pic.twitter.com/UInYEWmvVM
— NIDIS Drought.gov (@NOAADrought) June 26, 2025

The percentage of crop acres experiencing some level of drought included 16% of corn acres, 12% of soybean acres and 3% of cotton acres.

Crops experiencing higher levels of drought conditions included 39% of the durum wheat acres, 29% of barley, 25% of spring wheat, and 20% of winter wheat acres.

Drought continues to build in the northern half of the High Plains, impacting rangeland and pastures, in particular, USDA reports.

For example, Montana led all states from the Rockies eastward with 47% of its rangeland and pastures rated in very poor to poor condition on June 29.

In the West, hot, mostly dry weather conditions have blanketed the regions for weeks

USDA says several Western wildfires remain active, and new fires could be ignited later on Tuesday by dry thunderstorms that are expected to occur from the Great Basin to the northern Rockies.

In the South, scattered showers are primarily confined to the lower Rio Grande Valley and areas east of the Mississippi Delta, according to USDA.

This season’s abundant rainfall has left pastures rated at least 80% good to excellent in several southern states, including Alabama, Kentucky, and North Carolina. However, frequent showers have also slowed many southern farmers’ fieldwork.

The Outlook For July Weather

John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com anticipates farmers in the Central Plains will see drier, hotter conditions this month.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July,” he says.

Your next read: Kansas Wheat Yields, Quality Take A Hit From Disease Complex

July Weather Outlook: Goodbye Rain, Hello Heat

Tue, 24 Jun 2025 20:10:21 GMT

The Pacific Jet Stream has been going strong since early spring, sending heavy rains down through the Ohio River Valley, delaying farmers’ planting efforts there, then more recently, moving large amounts of moisture into the central Corn Belt.

“Nobody would have thought three months ago that we were going to have this much rain occurring across key crop areas, especially in the southern half of the Plains and in the Delta and Tennessee River Basin,” says Drew Lerner, president and senior agricultural meteorologist of World Weather.

But be advised, the engine driving that jet stream is about to turn off, says John Hoomenuk of EmpireWeather.com . He anticipates that by early July, some farmers will see those heavy rain events turn into a trickle.

Weather outlook for early July.

(BAM Weather)

Weather Brewing For July

“As we get into the second week of July or so, we’ll see the ridge push a little further north, and we’ll see some drier forecasts starting to appear, starting in Kansas and Nebraska, and then spreading a little bit into southwestern and central Iowa at times as well,” Hoomenuk says.

“That’s really caught our attention, because we just haven’t seen that [pattern] so far this year, and it’s a pretty big change compared to where we’ve been,” he adds.

As July goes on and August nears, Hoomenuk says the weather data indicate the jet stream will go up into Canada and drop into the Great Lakes.

If that occurs, he says farmers in Indiana, Illinois and Ohio are likely to get some precipitation dropping on the east side of the ridge. But across the Central Plains, Kansas, Nebraska, Dakotas, and maybe even into parts of Iowa, farmers will see their conditions trend a little drier.

“I think that’s not a huge concern just yet, but it’s a pretty big change up compared to where we’ve been the last couple of weeks,” Hoomenuk told AgriTalk host, Chip Flory, on Tuesday.

Drought Risks Remain In Place

The outlook for drier weather in July is not a surprise, based on the patterns some meteorologists saw shaping up last winter.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” says Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist for Nutrien.

Much of the western U.S. has been enduring dry, hot conditions already this year. Much of the central Midwest is about to experience the same.

(The National Drought Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, the United States Department of Agriculture and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.)

“When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%,” he says. “Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coal mine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, that’s a sign moisture will be lacking.

The silver lining, Hoomenuk says, is many farmers have either had excess or sufficient moisture this spring, so no alarm bells have been ringing yet for corn and soybean crops that are now in rapid growth.

His concern is the current weather patterns will stagnate, causing temperatures to rise.

“Most of the long-range data we’re seeing, if you look at July as a whole, is showing some pretty substantial [temperature] numbers in the Central Plains. We’re talking somewhere between four and five degrees above normal in some areas of Kansas and Nebraska, two or three degrees above normal for the month on average, surrounding that in parts of southwestern Iowa and the Dakotas,” he says.

As for states further east, such as Indiana, Michigan and Ohio, Hoomenuk says farmers there will likely see temperatures “closer to normal” for July, based on data he’s reviewed.

“The thing I keep seeing is temperatures looking to be about normal, maybe slightly warmer than normal – just a couple days of heat followed by a cool down and some rain, which is is pretty ideal,” he says. “It doesn’t seem like we’ll get into that long-term heat there in those eastern regions of the U.S, so the concern level out there is pretty low right now heading into July.”

Your next read: Crop Quality in the Midwest: Most States Soar, Some Flounder

Heads Up: Space Weather Could Disrupt GPS Signal This Week

Sun, 01 Jun 2025 17:01:55 GMT

The National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration has updated its expected arrival of a G4 severe geomagnetic storm. Initially expected to be observed June 2 to June 3, it’s now potentially ending earlier by June 2.

These space weather events can disturb the Earth’s magnetic field and at this severe level cause “more frequent and longer periods of GPS degradation.”

“If you’re finished planting, have no spraying to do, or otherwise too wet to get into the field, this solar storm may not matter for production agriculture even for the most susceptible states,” says Terry Griffin with Kansas State University. “Given the time of year, several hundred thousand acres of peanuts are left to be planted in Georgia (74% planting progress as of last week). Without RTK (not just GPS but sub-inch accuracy RTK), a 11% yield penalty is known at planting due to uncertainty of AB line when digging, the topic of my current research. In Kansas, corn was 85% planted as of last week and most crops have been planted on schedule or ahead of the 5-year average, but spraying and other midseason operations are still vulnerable.”

He adds Kansas winter wheat harvest usually begins mid-June so it won’t be affected by this storm.

Are these events normal?

Griffin says accurately predicting solar storms is more difficult than terrestrial weather.
“One analogy is to think of predicting geomagnetic disturbances on Earth as compared to the familiar tornado season. We know that in Kansas every April and May we can expect tornadoes in our area; when we may have a tornado watch, sometimes a tornado warning, and less common for an individual homeowner to be directly affected by a tornado,” he says. “Geomagnetic disturbances are similar: every 11 years we should expect a variety of “watches” and “alerts” due to increased solar activity before quieting down for about the next seven years until activity ramps up again.”

However space weather brings an even greater level of uncertainty for what the precise impacts on Earth will be. Just because there’s activity measured from the sun, it doesn’t always arrive at Earth in a predictable pattern.

“Activity on the sun does not always arrive at the Earth, observed coronal mass ejections (CME) can go in the opposite direction or even be a “near miss”, just like a tornado,” he says. “Instruments can detect CMEs several minutes after they occur, and even when material is coming toward the Earth it may take a few days before we know if we’re being affected.”

What can farmers do?

“GNSS outages caused by solar storms should be expected to be the norm, at least during solar sunspot number maximums that occur about every 11 years,” Griffin says. “At the very least, farmers should expect GNSS outages associated with solar storms during sunspot maximum; spanning maybe three years of the 11 year cycle.”

Griffin says solar storms can occur any time of year, and he points to some historical evidence suggesting increased frequency of geomagnetic disturbances near the spring and fall equinoxes.

Farm Journal reached out to Griffin first thing Monday morning for an update. He said the solar storm “arrived a day early...it was moving really fast” and would likely be over by Monday afternoon. He did not hear from any farmers about GPS outages or issues with satellite lock on their farm equipment as of Monday morning.

NOAA did record a G4 level solar event in space occurring on Sunday, June 1, however, by Monday morning at 8:45 am EST it had weakened to a G1.

Griffin says farmers should check the NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center hompage (www.swpc.noaa.gov) on a regular basis this summer before heading out to spray or do other field work.

“That May 10th event (last year) was not a once in a lifetime event,” Griffin warns. “We need to keep our eyes open for the next one.”

The “next one” could happen anytime in the next 12 months, or not at all, he believes. Griffin says we’re in the middle of what some scientists call the “battle zone” of solar activity and the current conditions are expected to last for the next year. Once we get to next summer, Griffin says, scientists are projecting a “quiet period” for the next six or seven years before space weather and solar storms start to ramp back up in the early 2030s.

“The previous solar cycle we were in was really quiet, and the one we’re in right now is normal,” he says. “We need to be ready for these events.”

Unexpected Impact From Illinois Dust Storm Hits Corn, Soybeans

Wed, 28 May 2025 17:44:08 GMT

It was bad enough Illinois farmers affected by the May 16 dust storm saw priceless topsoil blow off their fields and into the hinterlands. Adding insult to injury, many corn and soybean growers now face not only damaged or destroyed crops but will need to reapply fertilizer and herbicide products in some scenarios, says Ken Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

“If you ever tried to imagine what the Dust Bowl was like in the 1930s all you had to do was be in central Illinois that Friday afternoon,” Ferrie says. “You didn’t need your imagination to experience the Dust Bowl, you got to live it. Now, granted, it was only a few hours long. But it blew soil, it blew residue, it blew trees over, did property damage in some areas, and some of our most precious, McLean County soil was deposited in Lake Michigan.”

On Friday, May 16, 2025, an NOAA satellite captured images of a dust storm that pushed across northern Illinois, northern Indiana and the metropolitan area of Chicago. The dust storm was driven by strong winds, gusting over 60 mph at times.

(NOAA)

Not only McLean County topsoil went north to Chicago and beyond. Ferrie is concerned recent surface-applied herbicides and nitrogen were likely blown away with the soil and residue, too.

“Some of these fields that were sprayed that did not receive a rain to move it into the soil and get it activated are at risk now,” he explains. “We’ll need to keep an eye on these fields for weed escapes and the loss of nitrogen. We can make some estimates on the nitrogen losses with nitrate testing, but herbicide losses will only show up in weed escapes.”

Additional Consequences From The Storm
Ferrie, who is based just south of Bloomington, Ill., reports the dust storm generated a number of farmer requests, calls asking him to come inspect fields for crop damage. He notes that affected cornfields looked like they received a hard frost. With soybeans, some fields had plants sheared off at the ground level.

“In most cases with corn, I saw mainly cosmetic damage, and the corn will bounce back,” Ferrie says. “But in cases where the corn was covered up by dust, the crop will not come back, and it’ll need to be replanted. This occurred mainly where grass strips worked like a snow fence and the dirt piled up on the corn. In some areas buried in residue, we may need to burn that off the field before we can replant.”

Farmers who want to apply fertilizer or herbicides will benefit from holding off making any spray applications until affected crops show signs of a robust recovery, primarily in the form of new growth, he adds.

“Growth out of the whorl tells you that things are getting back on track,” Ferrie says. “We e do want to apply [herbicides] based on weed height, but this would be one time where I would put a pause on it and let this corn recover before we come back in with our post applications.”

Third Consecutive Year Of Spring Dust Storms In Illinois
Rains totaling 1” to 3” in the days following the storm, helped replenish soil moisture levels and start the recovery process in some affected corn and soybean crops.

But Ferrie points out that the dust storm marked the third year in a row such an event has swept through parts of Illinois, and the storms have cast a bad light on production agriculture in the region.

“Guys, we need to step back and take a minute to evaluate what we just witnessed,” Ferrie says. “Our soil went a quarter mile in the air, blew all the way to Chicago, closing roads and causing accidents.”

Such risks and consequences from dust storms are garnering more critical attention from the general public and scientists.

A 10-year study done by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and published by the American Meteorological Society in 2023, found a total of 232 deaths occurred from windblown dust events between 2007 through 2017.

“We found that dust events caused life losses comparable to events like hurricanes and wildfires in some years,” says Daniel Tong, research scientist at NOAA and an associate professor of Atmospheric Oceanic and Earth Sciences at George Mason University, in a news release. “Greater awareness could reduce crashes and possibly save lives.”

Haboobs, another term for intense dust storms, can occur anywhere in the U.S., but are most common in the Southwest , according to the National Weather Service. El Paso, Texas, has seen 10 in 2025 alone, reports Inside Climate News .

El Paso, Texas, has been hit by 10 dust storms so far this year.

(Tom Gill)

Two other recent examples of severe dust storms include:

March 3 – a crash involving 11 vehicles on Interstate 10 occurred near Albuquerque, N.M., left three people dead. Authorities there say heavy dust storms contributed to the crash by severely limiting visibility.

March 14 – Kansas Highway Patrol officials reported eight fatality victims from an Interstate 71-vehicle pileup that occurred during a dust storm.

Fortunately, no fatalities were reported as a result of the Illinois dust storm that occurred May 16.

Calls For Action To Reduce Dust Storm Numbers
A number of individuals and organizations in Illinois are calling for agronomic practices that will prevent or limit such events in the future. One of those is Robert Hirschfeld, Director of Water Policy at Prairie Rivers Network, an independent, state affiliate of the National Wildlife Federation

“These are man-made ecological disasters, driven by a form of agriculture that exploits and depletes the land, leaving millions of acres of soil exposed and eroding for half the year,” Hirschfeld said in a statement distributed three days after the Illinois storm. “We can’t keep farming this way.”

Hirschfeld wants the issue to be addressed formally via legislative action: “If we want real change, we have to move beyond voluntary conservation and start requiring practices that keep soil in place and pollution out of our water.”

Steps Farmers Can Take
While no one can control the weather, farmers can adjust their management practices to reduce the risk of dust storms, according to Illinois Extension. A logical first step is to reduce the number of tillage passes, especially in fields adjacent to busy highways, to begin moving toward conservation tillage.

Additionally, increased soil productivity can be achieved through reduced erosion, enhanced water infiltration, and decreased water evaporation during dry periods, according to the USDA Managing Crop Residues in Corn and Soybeans research report.

Ferrie says many of the farmers he works with are “great stewards of their land and are able to keep their soils in place.”

He advocates using a systems approach in production agriculture that will protect vulnerable soils and other resources (see A System for Every Soil) .

“There are many tools in the toolbox we can use to accomplish this,” he says. “We can work together to implement practices that will eliminate [dust storms] from happening in the future.”

Check out Ferrie’s latest Boots In The Field podcast to hear his specific recommendations and additional insights.

Will Geomagnetic Storm Watch Slow Down Farmers in the Field?

Wed, 16 Apr 2025 15:07:28 GMT

In the midst of farmers busily planting in the field, a strong geomagnetic storm (G3) watch has been issued for April 16. The Space Weather Prediction Center says geomagnetic storming conditions are likely to persist into April 17 due to the arrival of multiple coronal mass ejections that left the sun on April 13.

Could last year’s Gannon space storm, a powerful geomagnetic weather event that caused mass global navigation satellite system (GNSS) outages, impact farmers again? Kansas State University precision agricultural economist Terry Griffin says these events were not an anomaly.

What seemed like a once-in-a-lifetime space weather storm might become more of an expectation for growers in the future, he says in a release.

During the weekend of May 10, 2024, the Gannon Storm led to an assumed $565 million in losses for Midwestern crop producers.

“GNSS signal degradation associated with the Gannon Storm was unprecedented, especially at the specific timing with respect to peak agricultural activities,” Griffin and colleagues shared in ‘Impact of the Ganon Storm on Corn Production Across the Midwestern USA.’ “Lack of GNSS for planting for subset of farms reliant upon the technology led to production and economic losses.”

The Actual Anomaly
Since 1750, humans have been measuring solar cycles. The planet is entering it’s 25th solar cycle now, he points out. Geomagnetic disturbances could still occur this spring, fall and in the spring of 2026.

“It seemed like an oddity because we haven’t had something like this happen during planting time, yet the actual anomaly is we’ve had mild solar cycles as of late, which are usually 11 years,” Griffin says.

Part of the reason these outages seemed out of the blue is because this is only the third one since GPS has been commercialized.

“It’s probably what we should expect moving forward, not just for the next solar cycle, but also for this spring because we haven’t passed the maximum amount of geomagnetic disturbances for the solar cycle yet,” Griffin says. “Spring 2025, fall 2025 and even spring 2026, we should still expect this type of activity.”

What Happened in 2024?
During the weekend of the Gannon storm, there was increased solar activity, which included sunspots seen by the naked eye and several coronal mass ejections that led to part of the atmosphere becoming more dense, he explains. This caused the GPS and GNSS signal degradations.

“It was sort of a perfect storm of solar activity that even caused a radio blackout at one point,” Griffin says. “Space weather is different from terrestrial weather. Besides the northern lights, there’s nothing we can see, feel or hear from space.”

He’s quick to add this is definitely a real thing and he expects it to be an issue for the remainder of this solar cycle. In the May 2024 G5 event, outages lasted anywhere from a 1/2 day to a day. He says G3 event outages may only last for minutes and could be unnoticed by farmers.

Be Ready
Producers can best prepare themselves for future events by simply being aware and quickly determining the source of system outages, he says.

“It’s important to know whether it’s a local problem with your hardware or if it’s a global problem that is outside of your control,” he adds. “You can learn that online through the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center.”

Growers can find a bar chart on the Space Weather Prediction Center ’s website that denotes high geomagnetic activity for the entire planet with orange or red bars.

Geogmagnetic Storm Scales

(Space Weather Prediction Center/National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration)

“If you’re having problems with GPS and the bars are green, it’s probably a local issue,” Griffin says. “Call the dealer, but if the bars are dark red for nine hours or so, it’s probably the atmosphere being activated by solar activity, and there’s nothing we can do about it.”

It can be frustrating when technology doesn’t work, but he advises farmers not to panic or try to fix something you can’t fix.

“Farmers can sometimes switch to a less susceptible correction system to get them through the day if a geomagnetic disturbance occurs,” he says. “If not, go have an early dinner or see a movie.”

Your Next Read: What Farmers Need To Know About Severe Solar Event With Potential To Disrupt GPS

60% Drought Risk? The Latest Forecast For The 2025 Growing Season

Tue, 01 Apr 2025 20:00:10 GMT

Spring has officially sprung and that means heavy rains are on the way, specifically from eastern Texas into Ohio this week. Any fieldwork and planting will come to a halt, and Nutrien’s principal atmospheric scientist Eric Snodgrass warns of significant flooding risk.

“We’ve got a swath of the country that could pick up anywhere between 5” to upward of 12” of rainfall,” he told “AgriTalk” host Chip Flory on Tuesday. “In the Ohio River and in the lower Mississippi River, there’s going to be a major flood trend.”

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says there’s a chance for even higher totals in some areas.

“There are some indications we could see totals up in the 18" range likely across Arkansas on into parts of northwestern or northern Kentucky before this is all said and done,” Rippey told AgDay’s Michelle Rook.

Meteorologists have been warning of drought conditions for months now, so this type of weather system should have a positive impact, right? Wrong – Snodgrass explains this is the wrong time, wrong place.

“This is not a place where we’re missing out on moisture. This is the place we saw flood back in early March and even in parts of February,” he says.

The good news is snow is in the forecast for some areas in need of moisture, such as parts of the Dakotas and Minnesota. But unfortunately, it likely won’t be enough.

“The central United States is at about a 60% drought risk. Some of the best weather forecast models we have out there are trying to put the epicenter of that drought somewhere between Missouri, Nebraska, South Dakota, Iowa and southern Minnesota by the time we get into July and August,” Snodgrass says. “When you think about those particular states, developing drought from spring to summer in any year is somewhere in the neighborhood of 28% to 38%. Essentially, the risk is doubled this year.”

Snodgrass explains the canary in the coalmine for a drought will come from a combination of the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures and the Bermuda high, which is an area of high pressure that can influence weather patterns and tropical systems. If the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures begin dropping this summer, it’s a bad sign.

“If in June we start to watch the Gulf of Alaska ocean temperatures drop, that’s actually symptomatic of the atmosphere losing momentum. And if it loses momentum, there’s nothing to keep the Bermuda high over Bermuda,” he says.

What It Means For Planting
With flooding in the East and drought in the West, Snodgrass plans to use the Mississippi River as his main moisture boundary this year.

“If you’re east of it, I think spring is super tight. If you’re west of it, we have got to return moisture to Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas and Nebraska in order to beat back any sort of risk of drought going forward,” he says. “I really just think it’s West versus East this year on who’s got the favorable conditions early versus the risk in the middle of the season.

Taking a closer look at that outlook for a wet spring in the East, Snodgrass specifically says the month of April is shaping up to be one week on and then one week off.

“Right now, we’re week on with heavy rains. Next week, we get cooler and drier. Week three in April goes right back into an active pattern,” he explains. “What I want to know is if week four of April brings in cold conditions right after Easter. If that occurs, we just threw the brakes on any early planting hopes. Right now though, it appears that most of spring would favor tighter windows in the East.”

Despite the current outlook, a challenging spring and dry summer doesn’t mean game over.

“Any sort of problem we thought we saw will be gone in a heartbeat with good July rainfall. We are not settled. There’s a lot to understand and change with this pattern,” Snodgrass says. “Let’s say we do have drought, but you don’t have the heat stress. We can make a huge crop in drought conditions, so don’t forget that.”

Your Next Read: Planter Calibration Sets Up Your Season For High Corn Yields

A Warming Trend Is On The Way For Early March

Wed, 26 Feb 2025 19:52:22 GMT

If early March weather rolls out the way some ag industry experts are predicting, farmers might be tempted to break out their shorts and sunscreen.

“It’s going to be warm, very warm for most of March,” Shawn Hackett, president of Hackett Financial Services said on the latest Moving Iron podcast, with Host Casey Seymore.

Above average temperatures for much of the U.S. are in the forecast for March 2-6, 2025.

(NOAA)

What’s at play currently, Hackett said, is a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event that could take temperatures a notch higher than usual during the next few weeks.

Hackett said the polar stratosphere is in the middle stages of developing what he called “one of the top five strongest sudden stratospheric warming events” he’s ever seen going into early March.

“The stratosphere, which normally is super cold, gets displaced and you get this extreme warming above the North Pole. When that happens, then the entire stratosphere gets unstable and starts to lose its cohesiveness,” explained Hackett, whose interest in the weather is fueled by what it can mean to grain markets.

His hope, in fact, is that the weather in early March could be a positive catalyst for grain markets. “It could offer a tremendous cash selling opportunity not only for the old crop but maybe even for the new crop that’s coming along,” Hackett said.

Maybe A Short-Lived Weather Pattern?
But don’t expect higher temperatures to persist beyond the next few weeks. There will likely be colder conditions coming in right behind them by late March to early April, according to Ag Meteorologist Drew Lerner, founder and owner of World Weather, Inc.

Lerner told AgriTalk Host Chip Flory earlier this week he believes two things will come out of the current weather pattern and then go through spring.

First, Lerner believes the moisture availability in the upper Midwest and parts of the western Corn Belt will continue to be lighter than normal, which will encourage farmers to plant.

Second, he believes the risk of late-season frost and freeze across corn and soybean country will be much higher in 2025 than it has been in recent past years.

“We may see a period like right now, where we warm up nicely, and crops will take advantage of that and really get going aggressively. Then, we could turn around and bring a cold wave in and knock those crops down,” Lerner told Flory. “That’s one of my biggest concerns for spring, besides the dryness we already mentioned in the western Corn Belt.

Conditions in the West, Southwest and portions of the Midwest are going to continue to be dry, as March gets underway.

(Eric Snodgrass, U.S. Meterologist)

“I do think, though, with that aside, we will see aggressive planting this spring in the western and central parts of the Midwest, because I don’t think we’re going to have so much moisture around that we can’t be that way,” Lerner added.

Beware Of Frost And Freeze
Hackett’s prediction for April weather coincides with Lerner’s concerns. Going back to his prediction for a sudden stratospheric warming in early March, Hackett said that what often follows an SSW about 45 days later is a cooling off trend.

“You have the potential for some very cold, wintry type of weather that can easily bring in a hard freeze. That should create a considerable amount of unfavorable planting season, either delayed planting or planting that gets done and gets frozen over and replanting winter wheat that gets frost as it comes out of dormancy,” Hackett said.

Ken Ferrie recalls farmers in western Illinois were planting early soybeans by March 21 in 2024. He encouraged farmers who want to plant early to exercise some caution.

“An important consideration is whether you have crop insurance,” said Ferrie, Farm Journal Field Agronomist.

For farmers in the Eastern Corn Belt, Lerner said he doesn’t believe they will be able to plant as quickly as their western brethren because of excess moisture the region has received through the Ohio Valley and is likely to continue to get this spring.

Expect Temperatures To ‘Bounce Around’
As for temperatures, Lerner believes they will average close to normal but will bounce around this spring. “So we’ll be warm, and then we’ll get cold, and we’ll go back into warm again,” he said.

Flory asked Lerner whether he would put some odds on the potential for drought conditions this summer.

“I’d say that we probably have a 25% to 30% chance that we could have a more serious dryness problem in the West. But I am being conservative with that, possibly. I really want to see what happens over these next three to four weeks,” Lerner said.

“There’s no meteorologist out there that I know of that’s ever predicted a bad drought in the summer this far in advance, and I’m not going to be the first one,” Lerner added. “I’ll leave that up for somebody else.”

You can hear Lerner’s conversation with Chip Flory here:

'Stay Tuned, We'll Be Right Back With Your Forecast'

Fri, 31 Jan 2025 22:14:43 GMT

What if you could know the timing of significant weather events for your area during the next six months with 91% accuracy?

Now you can, according to Gary Lezak, a former meteorologist with KSHB-TV in Kansas City turned weather entrepreneur.

Lezak’s business, Weather 20/20, provides weather-based data analytics on a global basis to its customers, who range from farmers to retailers to general consumers.

Eighty Years In The Making
Lezak learned in the mid-1980s that a weather cycle exists, an insight he attributes to Jerome Namais, who first addressed the concept in the 1940s. Namais, a renowned American meteorologist, was Chief of the United States Weather Bureau’s Extended Forecast Section in Washington, D.C. from 1941 to 1971.

“What it’s all about is the weather pattern above us – the river of air that goes across North America through the westerly belt, across to Europe, Asia, and then back around across the Pacific. That jet stream flow, that river of air above us, has an order to it,” Lezak told Andrew McCrea, host of the Farming The Countryside podcast, during a recent conversation.

For the next 20 years Lezak continued to study the weather cycling concept, refining what he learned as he went along.

By the early 2000s, Lezak was blogging about what he had learned, eventually calling the concept he developed the Lezak Recurring Cycle (LRC). He founded Weather 20/20 in 2008.

“The LRC is all about the cycle,” Lezak says. “After many years of practicing it, 20 to 30 years of using it, we are able to predict when and where and a little bit of the what,” with regard to weather, he told McCrea.

The core tenet of the LRC is that a unique weather pattern establishes itself every year. It starts to set up in early October, with develpment continuing through early January. By then, Lezak says the pattern can be identified and predictions of every day’s weather around the world can be produced.

Based on the LRC, Lezak says he can predict with a 91% accuracy level when and where there will be major weather events – from snowstorms to hurricanes to droughts – for the next seven to eight months in the U.S.

“That (timing) is the sweet spot of the LRC and fits agriculture perfectly,” Lezak says.

He adds that Mother Nature still creates weather disruptions he can’t predict 9% of the time, based on influences such as El Nino, La Nina and the Arctic Oscillation.

Lezak’s take on the accuracy of weather forecasts differs from what the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) reports, though an apples-to-apples comparison is not available.

The NOAA says a seven-day forecast can accurately predict the weather about 80 percent of the time and a five-day forecast can accurately predict the weather approximately 90 percent of the time. However, a 10-day—or longer—forecast is only right about half the time.

Agriculture Takes Notice
As Lezak was honing the development of the LRC in the early 2000s, fellow meteorologist, Dean Wysocki, then based in Nebraska, learned of it and reached out to Lezak for more details.

Wysocki started using the information he learned during his broadcasts, noting that Nebraska farmers were hungry for more accurate weather insights and predictions.

“I’ll tell you what, it’s a game changer. That’s the easiest way to put it,” says Wysocki, who joined Lezak on the podcast.

Wysocki, now based in Fargo, N.D., got LRC certified and began telling farmers in the Dakotas and Minnesota about its benefits.

“It’s a major piece of long-term weather forecasting, and the accuracy on it has just been amazing,” Wysocki says. “We’ve signed up between about 50 to 100 in our ag community and we’ve got nothing but positive feedback. Is it 100% correct? No, nothing is, but it’s a great tool to have on your tool belt.”

The Weather Outlook Ahead
During the conversation with McCrea, Lezak and Wysocki shared some of their weather predictions for late winter and early spring 2025, based on information the LRC has provided. Here are three of their predictions:

1. Lezak says a La Nina, which is the cooling of the tropical Pacific Ocean, has a grip currently on parts of the western and upper Corn Belt areas, but he expects that to ease up.

“That grip that it has tends to shift precipitation patterns to the eastern Corn Belt. That’s not good for Nebraska, Kansas, Iowa, Minnesota, North Dakota and South Dakota,” Lezak says. “It shifts precipitation patterns to the East, but that grip we think is going to be let loose by March.”

2. Wysocki says he foresees a wetter spring, in March and April, for most of the Dakotas.

“We’ll get our moisture that we need in March and more than likely into the first part of April, and that should be good for planting season,” he says. “I’m still concerned about the western Dakotas into areas of Montana and Wyoming, worried that they’ll remain dry.”

3. With regard to drought, Lezak encourages farmers to keep an eye on the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor, as he says droughts are constantly either shrinking or expanding.

“It appears that over the last year or so that areas of drought, as we look at the entire nation, have begun to decrease,” he says. “This one has been shrinking for weeks, and that is a good sign. The likelihood of that trend continuing is high.”

Wysocki and Lezak offered additional weather insights during their conversation with McCrea. You can hear more of those specifics on the podcast, available here:

Your next read: With More Arctic Air Set to Blast the U.S., Why This Winter Could Be Remembered for Its Extremes

Winter Storm Wallops the U.S. With Heaviest Snowfall in a Decade, Southern States Brace for Round 2

Wed, 08 Jan 2025 14:53:49 GMT

A powerful winter storm swept through the central United States earlier this week and unleashed snow, ice and high winds. It also left behind dangerously cold temperatures across a wide swath of the U.S.

The National Weather Service (NWS) warned some areas experienced the “heaviest snowfall in at least a decade,” and those forecasts held true, with more than a foot of snow falling north of Interstate 70.

“For locations in this region that receive the highest snow totals, it may be the heaviest snowfall in at least a decade,” the weather service stated.

The storm extended its reach into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states, bringing frigid conditions as far south as Florida. “Temperatures could be 12 to 25 degrees below normal,” forecasters cautioned, with wind chills creating dangerously cold conditions.

What’s Driving the Winter Storms to Start 2025?

Southern U.S. braced for round two, with ice and snow forecast to fall in Texas and areas of the Southern U.S. The icy storm could impact 20 states.

“Starting back several weeks ago, we drifted into a weather pattern that even though we don’t have La Nina, it is very consistent with what you would expect during La Nina,” says Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist.

Rippey says one of the trademarks of La Nina are the episodic cold outbreaks.

“It just so happens that this time we’ve got a couple of Pacific storm systems riding right along that boundary between the colder air to the north, the warmer air to the south. And that lead system earlier in the week really took advantage of that temperature gradient, cold north, warm south, which is why we saw just about every imaginable weather phenomenon under the sun over a period of a couple of days,” says Rippey.

No, we don't need to talk about this yet -- too far in the future for one model [ECMWF 00z] scenario -- 14 days.

The episode of cold -- happening now -- was predicted to be much more harsh, and it washed out at the expense of multiple snow storms everywhere. pic.twitter.com/L4QmL0N20J
— Ryan Maue (@RyanMaue) January 8, 2025

Rippey says the remainder of January will bring more winter weather and the bursts of cold.

“At least for the time being, we are in a southern storm track and that is going to keep things pretty active for the foreseeable future,” says Rippey.

Enduring the Cold and Snow, Plus a Helping Hand

The ice and snow paralyzed traffic in places, leaving hundreds of vehicles stranded along the roads in Kansas and Missouri.

If we know one thing about rural areas, it’s the willingness to help a neighbor in need, and that was on full display this week. One tractor helped push cars that were stranded in the snow.

@kaaelliiii #blizzard #snowday #snowstorm #midwest #country @John Deere #tractor #tiktok #viral #mercedes ♬ APT. - ROSÉ & Bruno Mars

And there may be an art to pushing snow, but central Missouri farmer Gavin Spoor compared it to a harvesting crew.

@thepopcornfarmer
♬ original sound - GavinSpoor

Watching the Weather

What’s the forecast for the rest of the week? Check out the latest AgDay weather.

2025 Weather: Drought and Root Zone Maps Signal Dryness Ahead

Mon, 30 Dec 2024 19:17:31 GMT

As 2024 comes to an end, roughly 70% of the nation is experiencing some level of drought and dryness.

Recent precipitation led to small improvements in parts of Oklahoma and Arkansas northeast to the Central Appalachians. Since its peak in September, the drought affecting the Central Appalachians and Upper Ohio Valley has steadily improved.

In the northeast, near to above-normal precipitation in the past 30 days means drought conditions have improved.

Across the Southeast, Lower Mississippi Valley and Texas, precipitation deficits continue to increase.

December is typically a drier time of year for the Upper Midwest and Northern to Central Great Plains.

Since the beginning of October, precipitation has generally averaged below normal across the Central Rockies, Great Basin, Southwest and southern California.

Northwest California and much of the Pacific Northwest have experienced wetter-than-normal conditions.

When it comes to severe or extreme drought, parts of the Northern Plains, the Southwest and the Tennessee Valley fall in those categories. Portions of the Midwest are now considered D1/moderate drought, and one-fifth of Indiana is in D2/severe drought.

Looking at various crop production areas, the following are currently affected by drought:

Barley, 35%
Corn, 54%
Cotton, 18%
Durum wheat, 70%
Peanut, 29%
Rice, 15%
Sorghum, 31%
Soybean, 47%
Spring wheat, 33%
Sugarbeet, 48%
Sunflower, 78%
Winter wheat, 27%

While the drought monitor looks longer term, NASA’s root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across the Corn Belt and Southwest.

The Dec. 23, 2024, root zone soil moisture map shows just how dry it is in the top 3’ of soil across parts of the Corn Belt and Southwest.

(NASA)

Eric Snodgrass, principal atmospheric scientist at Conduit Ag, says the current La Nina is weak and fading, but it continues to influence weather patterns, which is sending warning signs for spring.

Snodgrass says we’re missing one important component in the atmosphere — the subtropical jet stream, which comes from Hawaii.

“We have the polar jet in place that will drive really cold air into the New Year, especially into the eastern two-thirds of the country, really cold air for probably a while,” Snodgrass says. “Until we crank the jet stream out of the Southwest, it’s hard to return a lot of moisture and break the fear of drought spreading from Mexico or from the western High Plains, which I think is where it’s going to come from next year.”

Snodgrass is worried about drought for two reasons:

Drought conditions are developing in Mexico, the western Plains, the High Plains and all the way up to Canada.
In six of the past 10 years with a really dry fall, the spring to follow was also dry. That causes concern for a big chunk of the Plains and into the Midwest.

Snodgrass says the best opportunity for a pattern shift would be if La Nina breaks down in the next few weeks and transitions to a more neutral pattern heading into spring.

Eric Snodgrass is on the agenda for Top Producer Summit in February. Register today!

Your Next Read: Ag Tech and Machinery Trends to Track for 2025

Hope For Drought-Stricken Land? Your Winter Weather Outlook

Mon, 28 Oct 2024 19:57:17 GMT

What is it you remember from last year’s winter? Maybe it was when the wind chill in Kansas City brought temperatures down to -30°F and Patrick Mahomes’ helmet shattered in the middle of a playoff game. A more accurate representation of the season, though, is probably Wisconsin’s snowmobile industry dubbing the season a “lost winter” from the lack of snowfall.

Regardless of how we remember it, last year’s winter was incredibly mild, with temperatures well above normal and snowfall almost nonexistent. But according to Eric Snodgrass, senior science fellow at Nutrien Ag Solutions, the consensus is that the months ahead are going to look a lot different.

“We didn’t really have a winter last year,” Snodgrass says. “This year, we have a better chance of a storm track coming through the “I” states and out through the Ohio Valley toward the northeast. So, the forecast is a little wetter there with periods of colder air. It doesn’t mean it will get cold, stay cold and not stop snowing, but it’s certainly going to be different than a year ago.”

That’s because this winter brings about a 75% chance for La Niña to develop, which is when the trade winds across the equatorial Pacific are strong. With La Niña in the forecast, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is predicting wet conditions in the north and dry, warm weather in the south.

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for temperature shows the greatest chances for cooler-than-average conditions in the Pacific Northwest of the U.S.

(NOAA)

USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey says La Niña can also bring chances for extreme cold events.

“Not every La Niña is like this, but I will say two prime examples were in 1989 and 2021 — that latter outbreak was when Texas pretty much lost power,” Rippey says.

Drought Dangers
With dry conditions in the forecast, Snodgrass says the big story this winter will be whether or not there will be enough moisture to work against the drought that has been building.

“The best winters for agriculture are the ones we hate and remember as being terrible — we get good, hard freezes and plenty of moisture comes in,” Snodgrass says. “If we don’t see that, we get into a situation where we become very dependent on spring rains and may have a conversation about 2025 drought risk.”

The 2024-2025 U.S. Winter Outlook map for precipitation shows wetter-than-average conditions are most likely across the Great Lakes region of the U.S.. Drier-than-average conditions are forecast for parts of the U.S. Gulf Coast.

(NOAA)

Snodgrass explains drought is often a multiseason effect, and Rippey says this one has been building since June.

“There’s been a four-fold increase in drought to now affecting about 50% of the country,” Rippey says. “That was great for summer crops, dry down and harvesting, but now the problem is what will happen with winter wheat, cover crops, pastures and range land.”

While much of the north will have the opportunity for relief from this growing drought, that likely won’t be the case in the south.

“We are expecting a generally warmer- and drier-than-normal winter across the entire southern tier of the United States, reaching all the way from Southern California to the middle and southern Atlantic coast. That does include important winter wheat production areas into the Southern Great Plains,” Rippey says. “There’s not much reserve right now in terms of soil moisture, and this could amplify already existing dry conditions.”

That brings concern for river transportation as the bump in water levels that came from Hurricanes Milton and Helene has worked its way through the system now.

“Historically, those levels tend to bottom out around January at the latest,” Rippey says. “We’re probably talking about a few more months of low water issues, and then you start to turn a corner around February because plants don’t use as much water during the winter.”

Timing Will Be Everything
Because winter is technically the country’s dry season, it won’t be easy to break drought in the months ahead. For the wet forecast in the north to make a difference, Rippey says it will all come down to timing.

“It’s important to start getting moisture before it gets too cold,” Rippey explains. “When you go into a cool season like this with limited soil moisture, if the cold air comes in too quickly, you freeze the soils before you get moisture, which can limit the absorption of rain and snow into those soils.”

The timing of when La Niña really starts to take effect will be important as well.

“December is going to be the month where we test if this La Niña really has what it takes to give us the things we expect,” Snodgrass says. “Normally, La Niñas peak around Christmas, and then they start to fade. If we miss that opportunity, we will watch all of the sub-seasonal things and hope they can deliver good winter weather to knock out the risk of drought going into 2025.”

But even with a few “drought risk” boxes being checked, it’s still too soon to speculate or worry about what next year’s growing season will look like.

“2022 had major fall drought, and then what happened? It rained in July, didn’t get terribly hot, and we had a decent crop. Indiana had one of its best crops ever in 2023, even though it was so dry in spring,” Snodgrass says. “We have to remember that the crop has many ways by which to stay alive and do well, and we’ve engineered that seed to be better performing even when there is some stress. We can’t make big, broad assumptions that 2025 is going to be a year of substantial drought risk that destroys yield.”

‘Moisture Opportunity’ Is On Its Way To The Plains

Tue, 15 Oct 2024 20:42:26 GMT

September was one of the driest months on record for parts of the Midwest, and October has continued the dry trend, said Chip Flory, host of AgriTalk, on Tuesday’s show. He asked guest John Homenuk of Empire Weather Consulting, what shut the moisture off in the middle of the country.

“We’ve had this ridge in place since September, which we’re fortunate didn’t happen in late July and August,” Homenuk told Flory. “We’ve kind of been in this really poor cycle for moisture for several weeks.”

Homenuk said parts of the U.S. have been in a fairly weak La Nina weather pattern, which he expects will “oscillate up and down a bit” throughout this fall and into the 2024-25 winter months.

However, Homenuk does anticipate some limited moisture will start to move back into Midwest weather forecasts soon.

“For instance, late this weekend and early next week, we have a moisture opportunity coming into the Plains,” he said. “A low-pressure system could spread out of the Intermountain West into the foothills, and eventually bring some moisture to places like the Texas Panhandle, Kansas and Nebraska. That’ll be the first system to come out, and there might even be some scattered showers across parts of the Midwest early next week.”

Meteorologists anticipate weather patterns will continue to lean toward more moisture as November gets underway.

“It’ll be a slow go of it, but the feeling is that we’re through the worst of the dryness now, and we’ll start working back gradually into a more normal pattern,” Homenuk said.

Looking Ahead To Next Spring

Flory asked what kind of weather pattern farmers can anticipate going into the 2025 cropping season.

“There is some indication already on models that we’re going to split up again, between a La Nina and El Nino,” Homenuk said. “Some of the indications stay near neutral, so not a La Nina or El Nino, and some of them start actually sending us back into El Nino by spring and summer of next year. I think we need to get through the next couple of months before we really have an inclination of where it’s going to go next year.”

Flory said he’s concerned, given the weather conditions this fall, that next spring will be a dry one.

“It’s kind of common to hear people say, ‘droughts don’t start in the year that they happen. They start in the fall before.’ And I think there’s more than a few producers out there that are concerned that this drought we’ve got in the middle of the country is going to continue on into the spring of next year,” Flory explained.

Homenuk said he believes if the U.S. transitions back to an El Nino weather pattern by spring, that should be generally viewed as a good thing.

“That would reintroduce some more moisture. If we stay neutral, or we stay in a weak La Nina into the spring, then I think those lingering drought concerns could make their way into the growing season in 2025,” he added.

Weather Outlook For South America

Flory asked what kind weather South America, Brazil and Argentina in particular, will see for its growing season.

“We’re kind of into this weak La Nina scenario,” Homenuk said. “What tends to happen down there in South America is you get a little bit of a mixed bag. So, it was a slow start over the last couple of weeks, but now we’re seeing a pattern change across central Brazil, essentially Mato Grosso southward, where there’s moisture coming into the forecast over the next several weeks.”

He added that the same could likely be said for northern Argentina.

“If you look at the next 15 to 30 days, the moisture forecast is actually pretty solid. They have some ground to make up, given how dry it was before. But I think these weak La Ninas tend to be OK in those regions. It is a kind of pattern indicating that there will be some moisture around it. I think they’ve avoided the worst-case scenario, which would have been a really strong La Nina developing.”

Hear the complete conversation between Homenuk and Flory here:

Drone Rescue as Farmers Find Helene Victims and Deliver Supplies

Thu, 03 Oct 2024 18:09:04 GMT

In the wake of Hurricane Helene’s devastating impact on the western regions of North Carolina, an unexpected group of heroes emerged. American farmers were among the first to respond, arriving on scene with drones in tow.

Seventy miles east of Asheville, in Hickory, N.C., Russell Hedrick and his father cleared fallen trees on their operation, working to open roads and access their rows. Compelled to do more beyond their land, they repurposed their agricultural drones for disaster relief.

By Sept. 30, their team had mobilized. Hedrick loaded his drone trailer with pallets of water and food, heading towards Asheville to assist stranded individuals. His efforts quickly expanded to cover both the Asheville and Marion areas, with a supply drop-off point established in Marion.

Technology Meets Compassion

Using a DJI T40 drone, Hedrick delivered a chain of drone relief. Additionally, he flew a DJI Mavic 3M drone at night, using thermal imagery to pinpoint survivors for emergency services.

“These weren’t just any farmers,” says Cody Jarvis. “They came from North Carolina, Alabama, Florida, and Wisconsin, stepping away from their crops to offer their assistance and equipment free of charge.

(Photo by Soil Regen)

The use of drone technology was a game-changer. As Cody Jarvis, a friend of Hedrick who joined the relief efforts, describes, “I got to experience a whole new level of helping others with the innovative technology of drones. Drones flown by some of America’s best farmers.”

“These weren’t just any farmers,” Jarvis continues. “They came from North Carolina, Alabama, Florida, and Wisconsin, stepping away from their crops to offer their assistance and equipment free of charge. Using thermal imaging, they located stranded individuals, delivered supplies to inaccessible areas, and helped family members reconnect with their loved ones.”

Relief

The relief efforts caught the attention of the wider community. Soil Regen partnered with Green America and the Soil Climate Initiative to create a fund: DRONES TO THE RESCUE - HURRICANE HELENE RELIEF . Within days, $13,000 was raised, with all proceeds going towards purchasing supplies for hurricane victims.

Support was widespread. Three hundred miles west in Tennessee, Bryan Petersen of Whitaker farms loaded 4 pallets of water and bought $1000 worth of beef jerky to contribute to the effort. Jeremy Slack from Ohio connected with his church community to coordinate the donation and delivery of 4 semi-loads of water and blankets to Hedrick’s barn for distribution.

As the days progressed, the team’s efforts intensified. They pushed further west, encountering mud slides and destroyed houses. The damage, as Hedrick describes, was “pretty sobering.”

Despite the challenges, the team’s spirit was strong. Hedrick shares a lighthearted moment: “My bright spot was at a farm where the lady came to the other side of the river and asked if the drones had cameras because she remembered to put her teeth in and bra on. We laughed pretty good at that one.”

Critical Needs

As of Oct. 3, the team had transitioned from McDowell to Fairview in Buncombe County, pushing into more desolate areas. They put out a call for side-by-sides to help navigate the difficult terrain. Bottled water, canned food, baby formula, and diapers were among the most needed items.

For more information, see the following from Soil Regen : “We have created a tax deductible donation link for those who wish to contribute to the effort. 100% of proceeds will be used to purchase supplies, such as fuel, water and food, for the victims. To donate, click here .”

U.S. Braces for a Hotter and Drier Fall as La Niña Looms

Wed, 11 Sep 2024 20:29:54 GMT

If predictions hold true, this fall could be a hotter and drier season across much of the U.S. According to the Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), unusually warm days are still ahead for parts of the country during the meteorological fall, which spans from Sept. 1 to Nov. 30.

Seasonal Temperature Outlook

(NOAA)

The temperature outlook for September through November 2024 favors a warmer-than-normal season, with the greatest probabilities — exceeding 60% — expected in New England and parts of the Southwest. The West, particularly Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico and Utah, is likely to experience an unusually warm September. On the opposite coast, Florida and much of New England are also trending warmer than normal. Conversely, while southwestern Alaska may see below-normal temperatures, northern Alaska is more likely to experience above-normal warmth.

La Niña, known for bringing dry, warmer-than-average conditions to the southern half of the country, is favored to develop during the September to November period, with a 66% chance of formation. Once established, there’s a 70% chance it will persist through the winter of 2024-2025. Though La Niña hasn’t officially started, signs of its arrival are reflected in NOAA’s fall weather predictions.

Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(NOAA)

As the weather pattern strengthens in the coming months, the U.S. might see an extended period of warmth and dryness, particularly in regions already feeling the heat.

Your Next Read: It’s Okay to Celebrate Your Wins

4 Maps That Show Drought Is Of Little Concern Right Now for Corn and Soybeans

Fri, 23 Aug 2024 00:55:56 GMT

As the 2024 growing season starts to wind down in the Midwest, the weather up to this point has been “uneventful,” describes Brad Rippey, USDA meteorologist. Other than drought in Ohio , extensive hail damage in southern Nebraska and some issues in Minnesota , Pro Farmer Crop Tour scouts found minimal evidence of weather-related issues along their route through seven states.

“We have seen a virtual absence of extreme heat in July and August and, for the most part, rainfall has been adequate,” Rippey says. “We haven’t seen any extremes since the late June flooding that struck the Upper Midwest.”

In the final days of August and into September that quiet pattern is expected to continue across the Midwest. Rippey says most of the meaningful rainfall should be associated with the Southwestern monsoon circulation, interacting with a series of weak cold fronts.

“What that means is that most of the rain showers should primarily be across the northwestern Corn Belt and mostly west of the Mississippi River,” he explains. “It should be pretty quiet as you head into the eastern areas.”

In June, July and August, drought covered less than 10% of corn and soybean country. Rippey is not concerned about the continued dryness.

Approximately 6% of corn production is within an area experiencing drought.

(USDA)

Approximately 7% of soybean production is within an area experiencing drought.

(USDA)

“It’s a little drier as you head to the far eastern fringe of the Corn Belt, mostly across Ohio, but areas further west should have enough topsoil and subsoil moisture to get through these final weeks of the growing season,” he says.

Of note in the Aug. 18, 2024, topsoil moisture map are conditions in the Upper Midwest this year versus 2023.

(USDA-NASS)

As of Aug. 18, 2024, subsoil moisture is adequate in most of corn and soybean country.

(USDA-NASS)

When it comes to temperatures, other than the late June heatwave, it’s been cool with very little stressful heat. Rippey says temperatures will begin to moderate in the final days of August, and we could see temperatures back into the 80s and possibly the low-to-middle 90s into early September. Although warming, temperatures should remain below stressful thresholds for the corn and soybeans still maturing, he adds.

“If you look as far south as Illinois, we have not seen a 95-degree day yet in locations such as Moline and Rockford. That is not unprecedented, but rather unusual,” Rippey says. “To compare, during the summer of 2012, which everybody still remembers, Moline had 15 days of 95-degree heat and Rockford 17 days.”

As harvest nears, at least the weather shouldn’t be a big concern.

Your Next Read: Head on over to AgWeb’s weather page.

How To Plan For Next Year's Crop With Extreme Weather In Mind

Fri, 16 Aug 2024 19:01:27 GMT

The 2024 planting and growing season hasn’t been one farmers are likely to forget. With each passing week, something new and even more disastrous seemed to be around the corner, ranging from flash flooding and derechos to drought and extreme heat indexes.

In the first half of the year, the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) had tracked 15 separate incidents of extreme weather that totaled over $1 billion in damage. Not too long ago in the 2010s, that was more than the average for the entire year.

Though weather has always been a big challenge for the ag industry, the severity and the damage are growing. Farmers are resilient and constantly prove their ability to adapt, so is there anything they can do to agronomically plan for the unpredictable? Two agronomists weigh in with strategies to decrease risk.

Don’t Put All Your Eggs in One Basket
Eric Wilson, a Wyffels agronomist in southeastern Iowa, says extreme weather is one reason he recommends diversifying your seed selection.

“There’s no such thing as a perfect hybrid,” he says. “The best thing against green snap might not be the best thing in terms of a high-yielding corn hybrid. Oftentimes, you have to give something up to get another thing right.”

Wilson says he would advise choosing at least three to four different hybrids that each play to a different strength.

“We have a product that does really well. It’s high yielding, cranks out bushels, and has a good disease package, but it has a wide green snap window,” he explains. “We need to build a package so that in the event one hybrid has a great year, you’re able to get in on it, but if we get a bunch of wind, it’s not across all of your acres.”

He recommends being aware of your seed’s weaknesses and adapting your management practices accordingly.

“Maybe the one that’s top in yield has an average disease package, but that’s OK because you put it on the field you typically spray anyway,” Wilson says.

At the same time, he says it’s important to not let last year’s weather play too strong of a role in your decision.

“Farmers are notorious for suffering from recency bias,” Wilson says. “If they have a bad windstorm in 2023, that’s all they’re thinking about in 2024 — I’m guilty of it myself. We always try and coach toward selecting a package of products that is going to work well regardless of what environment we get for the year.”

Acknowledge The Frequency, But Reject the Bias
Trey Stephens, Beck’s field agronomist in Nebraska, echoes Wilson’s caution for changing too many decisions based on one year’s conditions.

“You don’t want to let one year alter how you do things normally,” he says. “Just try to stick to what you know as far as your approach to planting, and control what you can.”

At the same time, Stephens says he noticed some weather trends in the area becoming more persistent.

“We’re in Nebraska, so there’s always been hail and wind, but in the past few years there’s been a consistency to it,” he says. “The past few years, we’ve had more severe weather in the later part of June into early July. Then July turns out pretty dry.”

Some of the severe conditions Stephens’ area experienced this growing season include unusually high levels of hail and rain, sometimes totaling 6" to 10" of precipitation overnight. This led to a significant number of fields needing to be replanted, and farmers in the area experimenting with new hybrids.

“Because of flooding, we had a lot of growers planting shorter maturity corn than they ever have — like 102 to 104 days,” he explains. “That was really unique for our area.”

Because of adaptations like this one, farmers will walk away from this year more resilient than before. And as Stephens reflects on what happened over the summer, he emphasizes the importance of planning ahead.

“A lot of people who planted early this year had a more established crop that was more likely to withstand some of the extreme events,” he says. “I advise growers to be prepared when you have the best weather possible and try to plant. Hopefully, you’ll get a crop that’s established enough to survive.”