Could America’s Dairyland be Facing its Worst Drought Since 2012?

Unfortunately for farmers, very warm and dry weather is expected to persist beyond mid-June.
Unfortunately for farmers, very warm and dry weather is expected to persist beyond mid-June.
(Farm Journal)

Exceptional drought problems are growing throughout the country and America’s Dairyland is starting to feel the effects. With no rain in the forecast for the next 10 days, farmers are starting to grow worrisome.

“Spring came early for us, which was nice because everybody could get into the fields early. But then the rain never really showed up,” says Carrie Mess, a dairy farmer located southeastern Wisconsin. “We got some rain earlier this spring, but we were already coming off of a lower snow winter, so there hasn’t been a ton of residual moisture in the soil. On top of that, we’ve had unseasonably warm temperatures for the last two weeks, so things are really drying out fast.”

According to the American Association of State Climatologists below-normal precipitation began in the dairy state in fall 2020, and dramatically intensified in southern Wisconsin in 2021. The normally plentiful spring (March-May) rains in the southern third of the state were reduced to only 25% to 50% of normal, amounting to total rain deficits of 4” to 7”.

As a result, in early June the Wisconsin Drought Monitor showed a broad area of the south in a state of "Moderate Drought" (D1), with southeastern counties in "Severe Drought"(D2) condition. Unfortunately for farmers, very warm and dry weather is expected to persist beyond mid-June.

Drought

“It doesn’t look like we’re going to see much relief from this anytime soon,” says Ed Hopkins, an assistant state climatologist for Wisconsin State Climatology. “The precipitation outlook for the next few weeks and even into the next month continues to look dry. And unfortunately, it looks like temperatures are going to remain above normal.”

For dairy producers, like Mess, who grow their own forages, no rain could spell disaster for already high feed bills.

“We just finished planting our corn yesterday – we put some seed in after we took rye off – and there’s just no moisture in the ground. We don’t know if it’s going to germinate,” Mess says. “We did make our first cutting of first crop alfalfa, but we haven’t had rain since. We are considering whether or not we should be buying hay ahead of time before hay prices go crazy, and we already know corn prices are crazy, so there’s just a lot of very nervous conversations right now.”

Unfortunately, meteorologists like Hopkins are seeing weather conditions similar to the drought in 2012.

“Just a few years ago back in 2019 we saw historic rainfall, now we’re desperately needing it,” Hopkins says. “Conditions are looking similar to the drought of 2012.”

Drougt

While other parts of the country such as California, South Dakota and Utah are facing exceptional drought conditions far worse than Wisconsin, farmers in America’s Dairyland are starting to feel uneasy about the situation, especially if the drought continues to intensify.

“In 2012 we ended up having to purchase alfalfa out of Canada. I think we brought a couple of semi loads down and we were able to make it work. But the prices weren’t what they are now,” Mess says. “It seems like not too far to our south, areas like Kansas and Missouri have actually had too much rain, so maybe we’ll be able to find forages a little bit closer to home if we need them instead of having to go to Canada. But who knows?”

As hot, dry weather intensifies throughout the summer, farmers and livestock producers across the country are laying their heads down at night with a similar thought in mind: Pray for rain.  

 

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