Both fed and feeder cattle prices have hit record levels already in 2025 on both the futures and in the cash market.
So how long will the bull market last?
CattleFax releasing their cattle market projections for 2025 at CattleCon in San Antonio, Texas.
Kevin Good, Vice President of Industry Relations and Analysis with CattleFax, says the USDA Cattle Inventory Report confirmed the smallest cow herd in 65 years and the total inventory was only 86.7 million head, down nearly 500,000 from the previous year.
So he says the herd is still shrinking and so are slaughter levels.
“We’ve got it down 2%. We also would say just the harvest level will have another 350 ,000 reduction in cow slaughter and about 700 ,000 reduction in fed slaughter. So that’s a million head less. So if you think about supply, that will be constructive and positive. But on top of that, we had record beef demand last year. We think that will continue,” he says.
He says U.S. cattle producers are still not rebuilding due to lingering drought in some major production areas and the extended forecast looks like La Nina could keep that trend in place.
Other factors contributing to the slow expansion is the older age of producers and many are taking the high cattle prices and using that to pay off debt.
So what does that mean for the price outlook for 2025?
Good says they are projecting more record prices.
“We would have the calf market this year averaging closer to $3 .30 to $3 .40 on a steer calf. That contrasts the $3 .10 last year. If we went to a year -long seven and a half weight steer U .S. average, we would put that at about at about $270 this year versus about $248 last year,”
He says cash prices for fed steers will also stay at record high levels through this year as we aren’t even into the tightest numbers yet.
Good says, “Take that to the Fed value this year we would suggest about $198 average compared to $186 average last year. “
