Latest News From Weekend Market Report

Markets get overextended and need to equalize, says Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group. "The stock market got too high and is correcting, and grains got too low and might be in the same process," he explains.

Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says even though the quarterly stocks number for corn came in below the trade guess, he thinks it is more bullish than it looks on the surface due to hidden corn disappearance. 

Jerry Gulke says he’d like to see another higher weekly close next week to help confirm the bottom is in the soybean market as well as a close above $12. A higher monthly close would be even more convincing. 

Gulke has heard the argument that the funds hold a near-record short position in the grain and oilseed complex and will eventually need to exit those positions. However, he says it's not that simple.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, spoke to a full house at Top Producer Summit this past week. "Producers are finally interested in marketing now that prices have fallen further,” he says. 

Shipping disruptions and higher freight costs are to blame for the basis collapse and the large carries in all the major grains, says Jerry Gulke.

“I don’t think we are going to see huge losses in prices from here forward, but these are not exciting prices," says Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, considers the bounce off the lows a victory: “This was a win, even though we had markets down a little bit for the week.”  

Prices are holding within trading ranges due to the lack of farmer selling and Brazil production concerns.

The world stocks to use ratios were not raised in the December WASDE, which was a victory for the market.

The focus of the soybean market continues to be South American weather and crop expectations. Jerry Gulke says whether or not forecasted rains occur will set the direction for the market into next week and beyond. 

On soybeans, Jerry Gulke says the 25 million bushel increase in carryout can easily be wiped out with the current weather issues potential cuts to South American production, plus increased export demand.

The strong close in soybeans reflects concerns about South American weather. If South American production drops 100 million bushels that makes U.S. ending stocks at 220 million bushels look tight, says Jerry Gulke.   

This week's price action in soybeans and soybean meal has many wondering if a South American weather market is starting early. Even China is taking notice.

The real question is: Should farmers wait for a more significant rally? Jerry Gulke says look at the carry in the market because it narrowed this week and determine if you can afford to pay commercial storage.

Jerry Gulke says the Middle East conflict bears watching and advises farmers to have their energy and fertilizer supplies in hand should the event turn into another war.

Should farmers store and try to capture the carry and more importantly will that carry be there in the future when it’s time for them to deliver?  Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, is skeptical.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the most significant part of the report was the breakdown of who is holding the grain.

The corn market is turning stronger, says Jerry Gulke, while wheat was the first to reset and proceed like everything is normal, even though that's not the case. When it comes to soybeans, there's bad news and good news.

On the heels of the September WASDE report, Jerry Gulke details 9 points to help you understand and navigate the troubled waters ahead.

Jerry Gulke thinks the corn and soybean crops are getting smaller, and there's a good chance for a bullish supply shock in the September WASDE report.

Jerry Gulke thinks USDA will have to lower yields in its next report. He also says he hasn’t seen a late-season weather market like this since 1988. 

Row crops post higher weekly closes and could be confirming a short-term low as the market continues to determine yield.

USDA’s dance continues after the agency makes cuts to yields, production and ending stocks in the August reports.

The losses the past seven to 10 days have cost farmers dearly, says Jerry Gulke. When fundamentals don’t influence prices the way we've come to expect, he says it's time to look behind the scenes.

With the dry areas getting smaller and the wetter areas getting wetter, Jerry Gulke says the market is justified in removing weather premium from corn and soybeans.

December corn ended 22½ cents higher; November soybeans were up 31 cents; with Chicago wheat climbing 36 cents; Kansas City, 31 cents; and Minneapolis, 2 cents. How long with the volatility continue?

Following the bearish report on Wednesday, grain markets closed higher for the week, which, according to Jerry Gulke, signals the market might believe there is more downside to yield.

USDA's June Acreage and Quarterly Stocks reports resulted in a bullish surprise for soybeans and bearish news for corn. In an already volatile grain market, the supply situation is problematic.

Corn and soybeans are in a full-blown weather rally. After a sharply higher week, what should farmers watch for to decide when to market their crops?

After a volatile week, Jerry Gulke was encouraged corn and soybeans closed higher Friday and near session highs. That tells him the weather market, which is still in its early stages, hasn’t run out of steam.

Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the rally was both a weather and a technical recovery. The key is how long will the rally last and how should farmers position themselves in the market?

A bearish reset of the corn and soybean markets is underway as they transition from tight drought-stricken old crop supplies to record production levels in 2023-24.

Grain markets collapsed this past week, posting lower weekly closes on massive fund selling. Jerry Gulke says it’s the start of a major reset and the realization the U.S. is not competitive as China cancels corn buys.

Grains posted lower weekly closes, erasing all the gains of the previous week and more. Jerry Gulke sheds light on the various factors that caused the slide and what that means for market direction.

The value of capital assets and cash flow were concerns in 2008 — just as they are today. The evolution of dealing with inflation has yet to impact ag directly, but history shows a wake-up call is in process.

The grain markets are focused on planting progress — or the lack thereof. Jerry Gulke says the markets are building in weather premium as progress could see delays periodically especially in northern areas.

The situation in the grain markets this spring looks much different than a year ago, says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group. Unfortunately, the picture is not as price positive for the 2023 crops.

USDA’s Prospective Plantings and Quarterly Grain Stocks reports tend to produce big price moves, and this year was no different. Jerry Gulke provides his analysis of the important data.

Given the collapse in the grain markets, will USDA’s report on March 31 matter this year? Jerry Gulke provides his insights. 

Acid-test ratios shows if you have sufficient short-term assets that can be converted to cash to cover short-term liabilities.

The financial industry was hit with a black swan due to the shuttering of two high-profile banks.  This has implications for ag markets and lessons for farmers, says Jerry Gulke of Gulke Group. 

"There's a place that you put on risk and there's a place that you take it off. So, we decided to take some money off and put in the bank,” says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group.

The acreage numbers were not too surprising, says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group. What held a bigger punch was the demand picture.

Technically speaking the price action of Chicago, Kansas City and Minneapolis wheat varieties are signaling a change is coming — one that might not be recognized until the price ship has sailed. 

The grain markets had a good week, with prices up across the board.

The grain markets this week had trading ranges typical of a daily range a few months past. They appear to be calming down ahead of USDA’s February reports and USDA’s Ag Outlook Forum, says Jerry Gulke.

“It's been a quiet week except for wheat,” says Jerry Gulke, president of Gulke Group. “Wheat has some promise, but we'll have to see what happens in Ukraine and also with the weather.”

Prices are flat to lower this week, with March corn prices up a penny, and March soybean prices down 21¢ for the week ending Jan. 20. Wheat prices were down a few cents.

The Jan. 12 USDA reports held positive surprises for grain prices. March corn prices were up 20¢, and March soybean prices were up 35¢ for the week ending Jan. 13. Wheat prices were flat to up 11¢.