For the week December corn was up 9 ½ cents, March corn was 7 ½ higher, November soybeans gained 12 ¾, January soybeans were 13 ½ higher, December soybean meal soared $6.00, December bean oil was up 116 points, December hard red winter wheat was 8 ½ higher, December soft red winter wheat tacked on 5 ¼, with December hard red spring wheat down 3 and December cotton up 45.
Corn and soybeans posted higher weekly closes for the first time in a handful of weeks.
Technical Action in Corn Impressive
The price action in corn was impressive to Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, in part because it came during the gut slot of harvest when farmers are gathering a predicted record crop.
He says the technical action in corn has been eerily similar to 2024 when the December contract took over as the lead month from September and gapped higher.
“We did it again this year and many people were saying we’d go back down to fill that gap because the corn crop is so big. We did leak down lower thanks to the Quarterly Stocks Report showing 200 million bushels more corn and retested that area with this week’s low but turned around and found support without filling that up gap,” he says.
Gulke further explains that the market retested that chart area, which was a point of price discovery, to see if that up gap was worthy of holding.
What Fundamentals Keep the Corn Rally Alive?
If the market can gap higher again on Monday morning with some bullish news like a large corn export sale, he says it would be significant.
Gulke says the other fundamental catalyst to continue the rally in the corn market comes from the lack of farmer selling.
“You and I talked a while ago about the fact there was 40% less on-farm grain stored than in the previous year and so we can restrain from selling corn out of the field.Corn is also coming out of the field at 15% moisture, so you don’t have the drying,” which he adds is allowing harvest to advance at a more rapid pace than normal.
Gulke is watching to see how big the grain piles get at elevators because if they don’t materialize that will signal to him that farmers had more storage capacity than the market anticipated and the farmer isn’t going to sell at low prices.
“And if I’m a buyer I better get my buying shoes on because I may not get it any cheaper,” he says, “especially if the WASDE report in November proves all of the low estimates on corn yield are correct.”
Soybeans Also Close Higher as Farmer Selling Dries Up
Soybeans also posted a higher weekly close as trade tensions between the U.S. and China eased.
Gulke says that helped the soybean market recover in addition to the lack of farmer selling as harvest wrapped up in parts of the Corn Belt.
Soybean Processors Caught Short?
It also appears soybean processors may have been caught short of inventory according to Gulke.
“We found out that ADM was offering free storage or free DP (Deferred Pricing).If you bring your soybeans to an Illinois processor through October, you don’t have to pay any storage and you don’t have to price those beans until October 2026.I’ve never heard of anything like that,” he says.
He says that’s a very bullish signal because it shows that in the heart of harvest the processors are not getting enough soybeans delivered to run their plants.
Or is China Buying?
Although he also speculates it could mean end user buying and he’s not ruling out the possibility that China is in the market buying.In fact, he says the basis has been improving on the Gulf.
Meanwhile, where Gulke farms in Northern Illinois he says elevators are keeping the basis wide and he anticipates it will stay that way until harvest finally wraps up.
Yet, he thinks President Trump could still pull a rabbit out of his hat and surprise the market with some China soybean purchases.
“We need to be ready and then see if it is a big deal or not,” he says.
For more information you can contact Jerry at info@gulkegroup.com.
