Market Analysis
Market sources indicated some renewed export interest from China out of the Pacific Northwest and Gulf.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the soybean market was disappointed China did not lower the 10% reciprocal tariff on beans and details were vague on other ag purchases.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle charts are looking more friendly after last week. While grains are disappointed in the lack of details from the China trade summit.
Grains recovered off the lows after USTR Jamieson Greer stated significant progress had been made with China, including on ag trade, and details would be released on Monday.
The market wants details, especially of what is included in the additional $17 billion prorated ag purchases China has promised, beyond soybeans
Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag says the trade truce being extended for just two months is a disappointment.
Alan Brugler of A&N Economics says the market had anticipated some buying ahead of the meeting as a goodwill gesture and the corn and wheat markets have been especially disappointed.
Kevin Duling with KD Investors says the algorithm traders continue to trade the war headlines even though it is unlikely there will be any change in the status quo.
President Trump was scheduled to speak at the U.N General Assembly Tuesday morning and there was hope for peace to the wars in Iran and the Black Sea according to Lane Akre, economist with Pro Farmer.
The grains in particular were supported by news of positive meetings over the weekend between Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and his Chinese counterpart says Arlan Suderman of StoneX.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says the report is the kind of trigger needed to change the momentum in the cattle market.
Naomi Blohm with Total Farm Marketing says the grain markets saw risk off selling by traders heading into the weekend as U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent was schedule to meet with his Chinese counterpart to lay the groundwork for the U.S. China Summit.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the market has seen sloppy trade and profit taking with news of the Santa Teresa port opening but it isn’t new news.
Craig Turner with StoneX says corn and soybeans are both consolidating waiting for the outcome of the U.S. China Summit and confirmation of yield from harvest results or USDA.
Garrett Toay of AgTraderTalk grain markets traded lower heading into the Fed decision and after the rate hike was announced it rallied to close mostly higher except for corn.
DuWayne Bosse of Bolt Marketing says soybeans retested last week’s contract highs with strong export demand and crush and the market is optimistic about the U.S. China Summit.
Sam Hudson of Cornbelt Marketing says the rally the last two month has been driven by crush and renewed export demand from China.
John Heinberg with Total Farm Marketing says higher product values and strong demand are supporting the soybean futures.
Mike Zuzolo with Global Commodity Analytics says corn and soybeans were supported by strong export inspections and higher energy markets. Wheat fell after the President’s post about Russia and Ukraine agreeing not to target energy and food infrastructure.
Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says while last week’s higher weekly closes send a strong signal a bottom is in place in the cattle market, he’s not ready to say funds will be piling back in to buy yet.
Dan Basse, president of Ag Resource Company, says the corn yield figure was very close to the trade guess and largely priced into the market.
Scott Varilek with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the recovery in the cattle market this week feels good but he is watching for several signs to feel confident about sustaining it.
Brady Huck with Empower Ag Trading says soybean futures hit new contract highs again as the market got energized by higher product values, report positioning, higher energy prices and China buying.
Randy Martinson with Martinson Ag says soybeans were back higher on Thursday with more confirmed soybean export business as China bought another 10 million bu. and unknown destinations accounted for 8 million bu.
Vince Boddicker with Farmers Trading Company says the market disregarded flash export sales for corn and soybeans and instead funds took some profits after a sizable rally staged in August and early September and before the WASDE.
Mike Castle with StoneX, says the risk off selling was tied to profit taking in the grain markets ahead of the September WASDE on Friday.
Mark Schultz with Northstar Commodity says wheat was adding geopolitical premium on Tuesday as peace talks failed over the weekend but the grain complex was also positioning ahead of the USDA reports.