A year ago, StoneX Group’s first national yield survey of the season landed like a thunderclap on the trade floor. A corn number north of 180 bu. per acre, 188, to be exact, caught the market flat-footed and reset expectations for the rest of the growing season.
This year’s survey didn’t produce the same jolt. But that, according to StoneX’s own economists, may be exactly the point.
StoneX released its August producer survey this week, that showed:
- A national corn yield of 184.8 bu. per acre
- Total corn production pegged at 16.160 billion bushels
- Soybeans yield of 53.0 bu. per acre
- for a crop of 4.470 billion bushels.
This is just the first of a monthly survey StoneX will conduct with his customers through November. While the initial yield survey results were surprising to some, considering the drought and heat issues in the northern Corn Belt this year, the results still show the potential for a large corn crop this year. But according to StoneX economists, the story for the markets isn’t as much about supply.
A Big Crop, But With Different Expectations
Arlan Suderman, StoneX’s chief commodities economist, says even though the results are survey based, the corn number landed in line with his expectations.
“I felt like if corn had been higher than that, I would have been surprised,” Suderman says. “I expected something between 183 and 185 [bu. per acre.”
Compared to last year’s eye-popping 188 bpa reading, this year’s crop is a step down, and Suderman says that tracks with what he’s seeing in the field, particularly in areas outside the Corn Belt’s core.
“This year’s crop isn’t as good as last year’s, and I would agree with that. Particularly our fringe areas, the Plains in the South aren’t good, so they aren’t helping elevate the Midwest,” he says.
He also doesn’t think the market will react the way it did in 2025, when the first survey shattered assumptions about what modern genetics could produce.
“I think the market has become accustomed a little more now of something north of 180 [bu. per acre]. Last year was kind of the first time north of 180, that’s where the real shock was,” Suderman adds.
The Map Behind the Numbers
Castle, who works StoneX’s survey data from the ground up, says the headline number hides a lot of variability underneath it, as well as how that variability cuts both ways. North Dakota remains one of the rougher spots on the map, though Castle says forecasts calling for a break in the heat over the next few weeks should help both corn and soybeans there. On the flip side, he pointed to his home state of Missouri as a bright spot.
“At least speaking for my home state of Missouri, we’re an example where things are looking very good,” Castle says. “Even in the crop conditions, Missouri was one, when we saw our big weeks of decline, they were the ones moving in the opposite direction.”
Iowa tells a similar two-sided story at the state level.
“If you look at Iowa, for example, where the headline number looks big, it’s a function of the entire state,” he says. “There are problems in the northwest corner, but some areas of Iowa look fantastic and may see their biggest yields, the eastern half of the state in particular has been much wetter.”
That’s the whole purpose of aggregating hundreds to thousands of data points pulled from StoneX’s client base of farmers, elevators and end users spread across the country.
“This is an aggregation of literally hundreds, if not thousands, of data points,” Castle says. “It’s not like we’re just picking and choosing a few dozen numbers.”
Even with a number on the board, both economists were quick to caution that the crop isn’t finished being made.
Suderman says August will be key. If farmers see the weather stretch out the grain-fill period, he thinks it’s possible you could add 5% to kernel size and yield. Shorten it with a return of heat, and that same 5% comes right back off.
The Real Story Isn’t Supply. It’s Demand
Suderman says this is where this year’s narrative breaks from last year’s. In 2025, the size of the crop was the story. In 2026, Suderman argues, it isn’t.
“I think it’s much more on demand,” Suderman says.
Here’s why. He says export markets are shifting in ways that could tighten up the corn balance sheet regardless of how big this year’s crop turns out to be. Ukraine, the world’s fourth-largest corn exporter, is struggling to move its crop out of the Black Sea region. Brazil is burning through more of its own corn as it rides an ethanol boom reminiscent of the one the U.S. saw two decades ago, leaving less available for export. And if El Niño clips Brazil’s winter corn crop next year the way it has in past cycles, that exportable supply gets even tighter.
“Does China come in and buy some corn? There’s a lot of questions on the demand side that are positive for demand this year,” Suderman says.
Is Demand So Good the U.S. Could Run Out of Soybeans?
If the demand case for corn is building, the demand case for soybeans is arguably stronger, and it’s more immediate.
USDA currently pencils in roughly 16 million metric tons of Chinese soybean purchases for the year. Suderman said he came into the survey more skeptical than that, penciling in closer to 15 million metric tons himself. But conversations with StoneX’s contacts on the ground in China have shifted his thinking toward the number China has floated publicly: 25 million metric tons.
“They fully expect China to take the 25 million metric tons, because paying that extra for U.S. soybeans is a cheap price to pay,” Suderman says. “You pay a few hundred million dollars versus the billions of dollars for getting what they want out of President Trump and trade deals. They see it as a cheap option, and they fully expect China to do it.”
If that number materializes, Suderman said the math doesn’t work with USDA’s current supply projections. “USDA, the short answer is no,” he said, when asked if there are enough soybeans to cover it.
Castle argues the demand conversation is missing an even bigger piece hiding in plain sight: domestic crush. More than 60% of total U.S. soybean demand now stays right here at home, and record-margin crush plants have every incentive to keep pushing volume higher.
“USDA might even be light already with their current crush estimate,” Castle adds. “Add in the export side of that, and all of a sudden you’re talking about a pretty different story.”
Suderman agrees, and takes it a step further looking ahead.
“I would say they’re about 25 million bushels shy on this year, but for next year, I’m looking for another 25 to 30 million bushels on top of what USDA has as well,” says Suderman. “That is a strong RVO program — it’s going to be awfully hard to slow that down with higher prices.”
That tightness is already showing up in the cash market, according to Castle.
“We are just running out of beans in the cash markets in some areas. It’s not that you can’t find them, you just have to pay enough to pull them from further away than you traditionally would,” he says.
Clearing Up a Misconception
Before wrapping, I asked Suderman what he thinks people get most wrong about the StoneX survey. His answer? The assumption that the numbers are shaded to benefit StoneX’s own customer base.
“We have the incentive to be as accurate to USDA’s final number as what we can,” Suderman says.
He also pushed back on the idea that StoneX’s clients benefit from lower prices.
“Our customers do best when the farmer does best, and we do best when prices are high and volatile. It would actually be to our disadvantage and to our customer’s disadvantage, for the farmer not to do well.”
He adds one more data point that stuck with him: some of the yield models being traded by hedge funds right now are running well above StoneX’s numbers.
“It really blows me away how high some of those model numbers are that the funds are trading,” he says.
You can watch the full interview with Suderman and Castle on Farm Journal TV.
