Markets
Today’s commodity market news. Featuring expert analysis from Michelle Rook, Jerry Gulke and Pro Farmer Editors.
Brad Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek says last week’s technical breakout in cattle was a surprise to him due to the current fundamentals.
Jerry Gulke, president of The Gulke Group, says it doesn’t matter whether farmers believe the USDA report or not because it’s what the market is trading.
Brian Grete with Commstock Investments says a corn yield decrease was built in ahead of the report with average trade guesses .7 bu. lower than September. This is the largest October yield increase back to 2004.
Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag, says risk off selling in the grains was tied to harvest pressure and report squaring.
Grain markets were lower on Wednesday and again Thursday as the market positions ahead of the October WASDE. However, Cory Bratland with AgMarket.Net says weekly exports may have also added to the negativity.
The grain market was also seeing some squaring ahead of the October WASDE according to Rich Nelson of Allendale.
Grains and cattle were seeing some profit taking after the strong rally on Tuesday says Brady Huck of Empower Ag Trading.
Allison Thompson with The Money Farm says talk of China pricing soybeans is welcome as they’ve been relatively quiet over the last couple of weeks.
Darin Newsom with Barchart says most of the bounce in grains is tied to technical and corrective buying as the markets got oversold.
Don Roose of U.S. Commodities says grain markets bounced off key technical support on Monday but are marking time ahead of the WASDE.
Last week the live and feeder cattle futures technically looked promising says Joe Kooima of Kooima Kooima Varilek, but then the market posted lower weekly closes.
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says the 20 cent losses in corn on Wednesday cost farmers raising 200 bu. an acre corn $40 an acre.
Dec corn futures ended 4 1/2 cents lower on Friday at $4.97 3/4 and was down 30 1/2 cents for the week.
Cattle futures ran into chart resistance after new highs for the move on Thursday and on live cattle the market tested the long term trend line.
Oliver Sloup of Blue Line Futures says funds were in liquidation mode in soybeans, decreasing their risk exposure with spillover weakness in corn.
Corn was bouncing off the $5 psychological level of support and the close will be important Thursday.
USDA’s 2.095 billion bu. stocks in all positions estimate for corn is an increase of 173 million bu. compared to the ending stocks in the September WASDE,
Dec corn ended the day just above the $5 mark but with the added supply shock from USDA can this technical level hold?
Kyle Bumsted of Allendale says the market is seeing technical buying and is right up into chart resistance.
Market sources indicated some renewed export interest from China out of the Pacific Northwest and Gulf.
The harvest delays in key growing areas were supporting corn and soybeans early Tuesday says DuWayne Bosse with Bolt Marketing but he is concerned about technical damage done to the charts.
Chip Nellinger with Blue Reef Agri-Marketing says the soybean market was disappointed China did not lower the 10% reciprocal tariff on beans and details were vague on other ag purchases.
Joe Kooima with Kooima Kooima Varilek says the cattle charts are looking more friendly after last week. While grains are disappointed in the lack of details from the China trade summit.
Grains recovered off the lows after USTR Jamieson Greer stated significant progress had been made with China, including on ag trade, and details would be released on Monday.
Varilek says the slowdown in slaughter tied to ICE raids has hurt producers leverage in the cash market and it has been reflected in northern bids.
The market wants details, especially of what is included in the additional $17 billion prorated ag purchases China has promised, beyond soybeans
Randy Martinson of Martinson Ag says the trade truce being extended for just two months is a disappointment.