USDA Reports
Following a major stakeholder meeting, USDA is boosting survey sample sizes and moving data-focused offices out of D.C. to rebuild farmer trust and improve the accuracy of its agricultural reports.
The biggest surprise came from the agency cutting corn yield less than a bushel and loweing soybean exports by 50 million bushels.
Matt Bennett, AgMarket.Net says, the corn market is breathing a sigh of relief as some whisper numbers on acreage were substantially larger than the March intentions.
USDA lowered old crop corn ending stocks 50 million bushels, but Brian Splitt, AgMarket.Net, says the market doesn’t feel like it’s trading a 1.365 billion bushel carryout nor do the July/December spreads.
Major changes weren’t anticipated for USDA’s April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Report, but there were still a few surprises — mostly for corn.
USDA’s first acreage estimate shows farmers could plant more corn acres this year, but fewer soybean and cotton acres.
The latest USDA American Farms and Ranches at a Glance report offers insights to how row crop growers are making a go of it financially in 2025.
Farmers and trade anticipate final numbers from the crop production summary on Friday. The latest information from WASDE, winter wheat seedings and quarterly stocks will be available tomorrow.
There is evidence the supply-side of the 2024/25 balance sheets for corn and soybeans is still a moving target, which means there’s potential for more market volatility in the next six weeks. On the demand side, questions remain as well.
Unlike some past years, the October report didn’t provide much for the bulls or the bears. USDA did raise corn yield 0.2 bu. per acre to a record 183.8 bu. and lowered soybean yield 0.1 bu. per acre to 53.1 bu.
Ending Stocks go Down Instead of Up
Does This Stop the Bleeding in Corn?
Prices fell more than 30¢ for the week. “Many of us thought there would be a few less corn acres but it turned out to be more. Corn prices reacted quickly and violently due to the shock,” says Jerry Gulke.
From more corn acres than expected to a large increase in corn and soybeans currently being stored on farm, market watchers are still digesting USDA’s big June Acreage and Grain Stocks reports.
Soybeans and Wheat Prices Follow
What does it mean for the balance sheets and future prices?
Jerry Gulke, president of the Gulke Group, says in the report USDA finally rectified the old crop corn carryover figure trimming it by 100 million bushels with an increase in demand.
AgDay TV Markets Now: Don Roose, U.S. Commodities says soybeans close higher as Conab production cuts trump WASDE data. So is the market trying to bottom?
USDA’s January reports were negative for row crops with higher corn and soybean yields and production. Jim McCormick with AgMarket.Net is hopeful the markets have the most bearish news now factored into prices.
March corn hit a new contract low of $4.41 on Friday. Will corn see more pressure trying to price in extra bushels? March soybeans also hit a low of $12.06. Will $12 support hold without a drop in Brazil production?
Friday will be one of the busiest report days of the year for the grain markets with several major reports. What’s likely to move the market?
USDA raised yield, production and ending stocks for both corn and soybeans in the November WASDE leading to a bearish reaction in the markets.
The October WASDE was slightly bullish for soybeans and corn, bearish for wheat. However, the markets rallied after the WASDE led by soybeans.
The USDA reports were bullish for corn with lower-than-expected quarterly stocks, but bearish for soybeans. Wheat numbers were also bearish with higher-than-expected production.
The September WASDE was a disappointment for the bulls, especially on corn.
The trade is expected lower yields in the September WASDE after the continuation of hot and dry weather in the last month.
USDA’s dance continues after the agency makes cuts to yields, production and ending stocks in the August reports.