Latest News From Chip Flory

Numbers of Note for 2024/25 Corn and Soybeans
Numbers of Note for 2024/25 Corn and Soybeans

Until USDA's May WASDE report rolls around, these acreage, yield, supply and ending stock figures are the talk of the town.

There's More Than One Way to Raise Yields
There's More Than One Way to Raise Yields

Some fields have a spot that consistently does not produce, but don't ignore those acres. If 156 acres average 200 bu. per acre, but 4 acres average 20 bu., the yield on the 160-acre field drops to 195.5 bu. per acre.

Will the Soybean Market Adjust 2024 Acres in Time?
Will the Soybean Market Adjust 2024 Acres in Time?

Chip Flory warns that as more crush capacity comes online, the soybean market might realize it waited too long to bid for 2024 soybean acres.  

3 Trends to Consider As You Make Risk-Management Decisions for the Year Ahead
3 Trends to Consider As You Make Risk-Management Decisions for the Year Ahead

Pay attention to the national corn yield, the number of planted corn acres and Brazil's corn and soybean crops.

Weather Uncertainty: A Marketing Plan Is A Must
Weather Uncertainty: A Marketing Plan Is A Must

The shift to an El Niño weather pattern is creating dynamic market conditions. In particular, the U.S. soybean market will be extremely sensitive to threats to the Brazilian crop.

Chip Flory: Sell 2023 Soybeans Now and 2023 Corn Later
Chip Flory: Sell 2023 Soybeans Now and 2023 Corn Later

Soybean demand makes the market more receptive to a postharvest rally if production trends lower into January. Corn exports are behind last year’s pace, and importers are turning to Brazil’s corn.

What Motivates Your Marketing Strategy?
What Motivates Your Marketing Strategy?

Whether you have a low-cost operation, a highly leveraged operation or are somewhere in between, it's a good idea to run an ROI analysis to understand just how good or bad marketing opportunities are at any time.

Chip Flory: The Big Changes That Didn’t Happen in USDA’s July Report
Chip Flory: The Big Changes That Didn’t Happen in USDA’s July Report

After the June report, traders prepared for a “new” trading environment with “burdensome” corn supplies and “pipeline” soybean supplies. Then came the anticlimactic July report.

Recovery Economy: A Fascinating Mix of Conflicting Indicators
Recovery Economy: A Fascinating Mix of Conflicting Indicators

The job market is strong, and the economy is slowly growing. However, there are four complicating issues making investors defensive, which reduces money flow to the markets.

Chip Flory: A Lot To Learn About New-Crop Supply
Chip Flory: A Lot To Learn About New-Crop Supply

The next challenge for U.S. farmers? To plant the 92 million acres of corn and 87.5 million acres of soybeans.

Chip Flory: The Acreage Baseline is Set for 2023
Chip Flory: The Acreage Baseline is Set for 2023

With USDA’s carryover estimates trending higher and price outlook trending lower from last year, many expect the sideways trends in new-crop futures to continue until the next shift in the fundamental outlook. 

Chip Flory: The 2023 Acreage Puzzle
Chip Flory: The 2023 Acreage Puzzle

History suggests combined corn and soybean acres of up to 181 million, but several unknowns suggest combined acres could be higher in 2023.

Chip Flory: Time For A Change In Market Attitude
Chip Flory: Time For A Change In Market Attitude

USDA’s January updates limit downside price risk but do not eliminate the risk of lower prices.

Chip Flory: The Big Grain Market Movers for 2023
Chip Flory: The Big Grain Market Movers for 2023

Keep an eye on these four issues to impact corn and soybean prices in 2023.

Chip Flory: What Will Make Corn Prices Drop?
Chip Flory: What Will Make Corn Prices Drop?

Early November corn trade provided a glimpse of what to expect from a post-harvest corn market. Corn futures rolled over and through the bottom of the sideways trading range. But there was no “panic.” 

Chip Flory: The Case for High Soybean Prices
Chip Flory: The Case for High Soybean Prices

A shrinking U.S. supply, a falling stocks-to-use ratio and the uncertainty of a third-consecutive La Niña South American growing season combined to keep soybean prices elevated through harvest.

Chip Flory: The Intersection of Marketing + Machinery
Chip Flory: The Intersection of Marketing + Machinery

A long-held belief is that it’s best to be “long-iron and short-taxes.” That’s likely to limit downside risk in the used equipment market through the end of the year.

Chip Flory : Stay Calm and Market On
Chip Flory : Stay Calm and Market On

Anxiety and stress associated with marketing decisions can be managed, but you must take an active approach. 

Chip Flory: Don’t Make This Grain Marketing Mistake
Chip Flory: Don’t Make This Grain Marketing Mistake

This is the time of year market analysis takes on a single-issue focus: crop size. Don’t let it happen to you.

Chip Flory: The Upside for The Corn Market
Chip Flory: The Upside for The Corn Market

For 2022/23, the U.S. corn stocks-to-use ratio sits at 9.6%. Traditionally, a ratio under 12% suggests the need for more acres in the next growing season.

Soybean Marketing Decisions: Store Versus Sell
Soybean Marketing Decisions: Store Versus Sell

This structure (or forward curve) in corn and soybean futures should have you focused on this fall’s “Priority 1 bushels.”

Chip Flory: Risk and What Ifs for the Grain Picture
Chip Flory: Risk and What Ifs for the Grain Picture

USDA’s first official look at the 2022/23 marketing year is the foundation from which supply and usage estimates will be fine-tuned in the next 16 months.

2022 Acres: The Big Swap to Soybeans
2022 Acres: The Big Swap to Soybeans

It was the “big swap” many didn’t expect. What makes it believable is total corn and soybean acreage intentions of 180.5 million is nearly unchanged from 2021.

Chip Flory: How to Manage Volatile and High-Risk Markets
Chip Flory: How to Manage Volatile and High-Risk Markets

Headline-driven markets are tough to face but these tools can help.

Chip Flory: Green Fuel Drives The Future Of Soybeans
Chip Flory: Green Fuel Drives The Future Of Soybeans

Soybeans will be bidding for U.S. acres in the next three years (and longer) to feed crush expansion. 

Chip Flory: How To Be An Efficient Risk Manager
Chip Flory: How To Be An Efficient Risk Manager

That is not an efficient way to collect and process information — it’s likely to leave you dazed, confused and unable to even make a decision. Here is my advice.

Chip Flory: What Is Stopping You from Making Grain Sales?
Chip Flory: What Is Stopping You from Making Grain Sales?

It’s time for a reality check on 2021-crop corn, soybeans and wheat. If you haven’t locked in prices (and record returns on investment for many), why haven’t you? 

Chip Flory: What’s Ahead for the Grain Markets?
Chip Flory: What’s Ahead for the Grain Markets?

“Don’t panic on price slides and sell into rallies.” That was the consensus marketing outlook from several analysts on “AgriTalk” following the 2021 harvest.

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Chip Flory: Your Guide to Goal-Based Marketing

The concept of “goal-based marketing” is easy to understand. The strategy links the sale of crops or livestock to a goal for your business.

Chip Flory: Natural Gas Ignites Fertilizer Rally
Chip Flory: Natural Gas Ignites Fertilizer Rally

It will take significant N bookings at higher prices or excess natural gas supplies to relight fires at fertilizer plants – and neither seems likely until summer 2022.  

Chip Flory: Our Infrastructure Advantage
Chip Flory: Our Infrastructure Advantage

Greater transportation efficiencies will only make U.S. exporters more competitive, will support basis and put more revenue in producers’ pockets.

DC Signal to Noise: A Conversation with The Farm CPA, Paul Neiffer
DC Signal to Noise: A Conversation with The Farm CPA, Paul Neiffer

Chip Flory of AgriTalk and Pro Farmer policy analyst Jim Wiesemeyer have a conversation with Paul Neiffer of CliftonLarsonAllen about potential future tax liabilities for farmers and ranchers.

DC Signal to Noise: Immigration and Infrastructure Heat Up
DC Signal to Noise: Immigration and Infrastructure Heat Up

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss the situation at the southern border with Haitians, the latest on the battle over the infrastructure bills and more.

Chip Flory: The Domestication Of The U.S. Soybean Market
Chip Flory: The Domestication Of The U.S. Soybean Market

With lawmakers focused on environmental social governance and carbon-neutral fuels, odds are the momentum to replace petroleum-based diesel with renewable diesel will not be exhausted soon. 

DC Signal to Noise: The Heat Increases on Infrastructure, Afghanistan and Vaccine Mandates
DC Signal to Noise: The Heat Increases on Infrastructure, Afghanistan and Vaccine Mandates

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss the price tag of the human infrastructure bill, the Senate gearing up to hold hearings on the withdrawal from Afghanistan, vaccine mandates and more.

DC Signal to Noise: Potential Midterm Ramifications for Domestic and Foreign Policies
DC Signal to Noise: Potential Midterm Ramifications for Domestic and Foreign Policies

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss President Biden's approval rating, Sec. Vilsack's Town Hall, infrastructure and a lot more on this week's D.C. Signal to Noise.

DC Signal to Noise: Foreign and Domestic Policy Challenges Abound
DC Signal to Noise: Foreign and Domestic Policy Challenges Abound

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss the status of the WOTUS redo, trade, renewable diesel, Afghanistan and a lot more on this week's D.C. Signal to Noise.

From the Rows | Aug. 18, 2021 — Chip Flory & Bruce Blythe (West)
From the Rows | Aug. 18, 2021 — Chip Flory & Bruce Blythe (West)

Crop Tour Day 3 results show strong corn yield prospects for southwest Iowa.

“I’m actually just growing carbon. I farmed 30 years and never realized the true power of photosynthesis,” says Jim Nichols.
From the Rows | Aug. 17, 2021 — Chip Flory (West)

Nebraska soybean pod counts down 5.5% from year-ago, rain needed soon; state's estimated corn yield up over 4%.

2014-Crop-Tour-Indiana-corn-road
From the Rows | Aug. 16, 2021 — Chip Flory (West)

From the Rows | August 16, 2021 Crop Tour Day 1 shows South Dakota corn, soybeans under dryness stress.

DC Signal to Noise: Ignoring the CBO and Supreme Court?
DC Signal to Noise: Ignoring the CBO and Supreme Court?

Is the infrastructure bill on a collision course with the Congressional Budget Office and the Supreme Court? AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss votes on the infrastructure bill and more.

DC Signal to Noise: Unraveling the $550 Billion, 2,700-Page Infrastructure Plan
DC Signal to Noise: Unraveling the $550 Billion, 2,700-Page Infrastructure Plan

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss the Build Back Better plan, analyze the WOTUS reset rule and more.

Chip Flory: What If Crop Yields Top The Trend?
Chip Flory: What If Crop Yields Top The Trend?

A 2021 big-yield scenario suggests lower prices than seen in mid-July, but not low enough to leave financials stained with red ink. 

DC Signal to Noise: Uncertainty Continues in DC
DC Signal to Noise: Uncertainty Continues in DC

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss new court rulings affecting the renewable fuel standard, senate hearings on immigrant farm workers, pressure on the crude oil market and more.

DC Signal to Noise: All Eyes on the Cattle Market
DC Signal to Noise: All Eyes on the Cattle Market

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer unpack Biden’s new executive order, including new rules under the Packers and Stockyards Act, “Product of USA” labeling and more.

DC Signal to Noise: Courts Deal Two Blows to Biofuel Industry
DC Signal to Noise: Courts Deal Two Blows to Biofuel Industry

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer are joined by Emily Skor, CEO of Growth Energy. They discuss recent court decisions impacting the ethanol industry, how to expedite higher blends and more.

DC Signal to Noise: Building Bridges for Infrastructure
DC Signal to Noise: Building Bridges for Infrastructure

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss slow downs in pork processing, the senate meeting on cattle market transparency, the bipartisan agreement on an infrastructure bill and more.

DC Signal to Noise: A Perfect Storm in the Grain Markets
DC Signal to Noise: A Perfect Storm in the Grain Markets

AgriTalk's Chip Flory and Pro Farmer’s Jim Wiesemeyer discuss lumber prices as a leading indicator for the grain markets, plus drought in the western states and line speeds in pork plants.

DC Signal to Noise: Will Hot/Dry Weather This Week Affect Accuracy of Upcoming S&D Report?
DC Signal to Noise: Will Hot/Dry Weather This Week Affect Accuracy of Upcoming S&D Report?

This week Chip Flory and Jim Wiesemeyer discuss concern over high temperatures and a lack of rain, cyberattacks, PORK Week and more.

DC Signal to Noise: Big Infrastructure Plans Require a Big Budget
DC Signal to Noise: Big Infrastructure Plans Require a Big Budget

DC Signal To Noise: It's time to take a closer look at the U.S. China trade relationship and the clock is ticking on the infrastructure bill.