USDA’s May World Ag Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is its first official look at the new-crop marketing year for corn and soybeans. It’s a big event.
There are, however, some key supply-side numbers known before the tables are released, such as the trend-line corn and soybean yields revealed at the Annual Ag Outlook Forum in February and the planted acreage estimates released in the March Prospective Plantings report.
New-Crop Corn Carryover is Not Burdensome
The 95.3 million planted corn acres estimated in March would be up 4.7 million acres from a year ago, and the projected trend-line yield of 181 bu. per acre would top last year’s record national corn yield of 179.3 bu. per acre. That was expected to balloon 2025/26 corn carryover to 2.02 billion bushels, according to a pre-report survey by Reuters. USDA delivered the big crop projection of 15.82 billion bushels, nearly 1 billion above last year’s crop. But USDA also pushed total use up 220 million bushels from this year, anchoring its first new-crop carryover projection at 1.8 billion bushels. That would be up 385 million bushels from the agency’s May old-crop carryover peg, but it is more than 200 million bushels below trade expectations.
USDA’s projection of a national average on-farm cash corn price for 2025/26 was $4.20, down 15¢ from the current marketing year. That helps explain the increase in expected use.
New-Crop Soybean Carryover Points Lower
Planted soybean acres of 83.5 million would be down 3.6 million from a year ago, and a trend-line yield of 52.5 bu. per acre would top the record set in 2016. That was expected to hold carryover nearly steady with 2024/25’s 350 million bushels.
In the May WASDE, USDA delivered a crop projection just 26 million bushels below last year’s at 4.34 billion bushels. Even with total supplies slightly below the year earlier, USDA increased projected use 30 million bushels with estimated crush up 70 million year-to-year and bean exports down 35 million from this year. Bean carryover of 295 million bushels would be down 55 million bushels from USDA’s May old-crop carryover peg, which is nearly 70 million bushels below trade expectations.
USDA’s projections of a national average on-farm cash soybean price for 2025/26 was $10.25, up 30¢ from the current marketing year. The combination of a higher price and higher use is not normal, but expectations that U.S. biofuels incentives will be supportive to bio-based diesel might have helped lift the crush projection.
Markets Sensitive to Yield Risk
The first 2025/26 corn stocks-to-use ratio is 11.6%. This isn’t bullish, but also not bearish with new-crop futures below $4.50.
The first stocks-to-use ratio on soybeans is 6.7%, which is slightly bullish with new-crop futures near $10.50.
That means both markets will be responsive to any threat to corn and soybean yields this summer.
